Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

If punters are right CON set to lose both upcoming by-elections – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 8 in General
imageIf punters are right CON set to lose both upcoming by-elections – politicalbetting.com

Above are the latest betting odds from the Smarkets exchange on the two outstanding by-elections both of which were Tory held at the last election.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,708
    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,720
    Yes the likely outcome. More chance of Watford winning at home than CON winning a by election at the moment!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523
    edited May 2
    mwadams said:

    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    Punters are often wrong but in any case, political betting is often seen, if not as a loss leader, then a cheap way of getting bookmakers' names into the front half of newspapers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited May 2
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,708

    mwadams said:

    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    Punters are often wrong but in any case, political betting is often seen, if not as a loss leader, then a cheap way of getting bookmakers' names into the front half of newspapers.
    And of course I don't mean individuals - I mean the aggregate betting on a pair of 3-horse races where the relative performance of each horse impacts the others, and we don't even know who is running and when.

    It feels reasonable to have modest bets against this and profit as it tightens.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353
    Blackburn Rovers first club to hold Eid prayers. Great to see a soccer club engaging with their community like this.

    More soccer clubs need to reach out and engage to their local communities.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-61300097
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,208

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    @SamRamani2
    Yair Lapid on Israel- Russia relations after Lavrov’s comment:

    “We are making every effort to maintain good relations with Russia, but everything has a border, and this time it was crossed. The Russian government should apologize to us and to all the Jewish people”


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521159400844636160
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    You are absolutely right: there is a small group of nutters (Madison Cawthorn, Rand Paul, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, Steve Bannon), but mostly they have fallen into line.

    Some choice quotes for you:

    “Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug. Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and it is incredibly evil.” - Cawthorn

    “NATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them. What the hell is going with these #NATONazis?” - Taylor Greene

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “No Republican should vote for any money for Ukraine. $0 for Ukraine.” - Steve Bannon

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    Taz said:

    Blackburn Rovers first club to hold Eid prayers. Great to see a soccer club engaging with their community like this.

    More soccer clubs need to reach out and engage to their local communities.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-61300097

    At 2030 last Thusday Wesley Fofana broke his Ramadan fast on the sideline against Roma, applauded by the LCFC fans in the Stadium. Tough guy to play to this level while fasting.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
    I think you are being far too generous to the Russian ministers there. What is your reason for thinking they have minds?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,208
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
    Is that really true? Certainly for the last 40 years, but before that?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
    I think you are being far too generous to the Russian ministers there. What is your reason for thinking they have minds?
    Have the Russian military strategists and the DfE been seen in the same room at the same time ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,208

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    They’ve certainly shown that politicians in general are a bunch of hypocrites, who will do and say anything for narrow partisan interests, and the story has moved on from being about Downing St to being about politicians of all colours.

    Same as journalists of course, several of whom have been in trouble for similar events.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
    I think you are being far too generous to the Russian ministers there. What is your reason for thinking they have minds?
    Cue a bit of an overlooked 80s classic:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx37AWqSPU0
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
    I think you are being far too generous to the Russian ministers there. What is your reason for thinking they have minds?
    If I have read that article correctly it is a thought through plan, at least in Russian heads. Increasingly isolated across the world stage it is to get allies where they can and in Middle East that seems to be Palestine. RU reverting back to the cold war playbook as far as Middle East is concerned.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
    I think you are being far too generous to the Russian ministers there. What is your reason for thinking they have minds?
    Have the Russian military strategists and the DfE been seen in the same room at the same time ?
    The way Russian military strategists are being blown up by Ukraine at least that would solve the problems of their pensions being paid...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,259
    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    edited May 2

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Not a matter of him being deluded*, but the True Brexiters in the Party. MP this week, candidate for Party Leader and PM next month ...

    *Edit: not sure 'deluded' is the right word anyway even for the T. B.'s, at least in this calculation. They only need worry about the Party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    edited May 2

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    I don't know who these two are, but I'm guessing they are leading Trumpsters?

    I guess they'll be accusing him of running a pizza palour paedo ring in Kyiv next.



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    edited May 2

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    Are these people literally stark staring raving mad? Frostie as Johnson's replacement?

    I'll retire to Bedlam.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Wouldn't he have to resign (or whatever the word is) his peerage?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    ydoethur said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    So it makes sense then?
    Yes, but why would anyone else go along with this level of self-delusion?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    Are these people literally stark staring raving mad? Frostie as Johnson's replacement?

    I'll retire to Bedlam.
    I have already said that if I was a constituent and Frost was parachuted in I would vote lib dem
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    dixiedean said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Wouldn't he have to resign (or whatever the word is) his peerage?
    Yes. Only hereditary peers can sit in the Commons. :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    So it makes sense then?
    Yes, but why would anyone else go along with this level of self-delusion?
    Because they're stupid.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523
    Carnyx said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Not a matter of him being deluded, but the True Brexiters in the Party. MP this week, candidate for Party Leader and PM next month ...
    Yes. I think what some pro-Boris PBers miss is that it is not just Remoaners saying Brexit has been a disaster, a lot of Brexiteers, including Lord Frost, are also saying Boris has made a complete mess of things. This is also why the Prime Minister needs ex-ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Cabinet — to shield Boris from the Brexit true believers.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,259

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    I don't know who these two are, but I'm guessing they are leading Trumpsters?

    I guess they'll be accusing him of running a pizza palour paedo ring in Kyiv next.

    Perhaps they blame him for the globalist plot to impeach Trump? Was he really as innocent as made out?*

    *Personally I think yes he was.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    It would be a good way to ensure people like me do not return to the Tory fold. Maybe that is what they want. Make it a pure (almost) far right populist party somewhat similar to Marine Le Pen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    Are these people literally stark staring raving mad? Frostie as Johnson's replacement?

    I'll retire to Bedlam.
    To join the poor chap trying to work out the optimum AV system on the wall?

    https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-scene-at-bedlam-hospital-london-engraving-after-hogarth-13767490.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    The Russians are losing their minds. Trying to guess what they think Putin wants to hear, they are just bumping their gums and saying the weirdest shit.
    I think you are being far too generous to the Russian ministers there. What is your reason for thinking they have minds?
    If I have read that article correctly it is a thought through plan, at least in Russian heads. Increasingly isolated across the world stage it is to get allies where they can and in Middle East that seems to be Palestine. RU reverting back to the cold war playbook as far as Middle East is concerned.

    Unconvincing imo. A conspiracy theory seeking to explain Lavrov's diplomacy when it is more likely it was just a gaffe.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    This is also why the Prime Minister needs ex-ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Cabinet — to shield Boris from the Brexit true believers.

    Who last week described it as "self-harm"...

    He is doing a bang up job.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    It would be a good way to ensure people like me do not return to the Tory fold. Maybe that is what they want. Make it a pure (almost) far right populist party somewhat similar to Marine Le Pen.
    Though even MLP has worked to drag her party towards the political centre to gain votes. A Frost-led Conservative Party would be pure self-indulgence.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    Sandpit said:

    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/

    Russia doing everything it can, to piss off the few remaining neutral countries in this war. Keep it up Lavrov!
    @SamRamani2
    Yair Lapid on Israel- Russia relations after Lavrov’s comment:

    “We are making every effort to maintain good relations with Russia, but everything has a border, and this time it was crossed. The Russian government should apologize to us and to all the Jewish people”


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521159400844636160
    The fact that Russia has set out to subjugate or murder the Ukraine people and destroy its infrastructure, is not a border for Israel? Do they not see a parallel in the Middle East?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    dixiedean said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Wouldn't he have to resign (or whatever the word is) his peerage?
    Yes and if unsuccessful would attempt to regain it

    You couldn't make it up
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,754

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Not Frosty surely. With or without parachute he's a muppet. Look at that Brexit deal he did. So bad he wants to tear it up and start again!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    kinabalu said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Not Frosty surely. With or without parachute he's a muppet. Look at that Brexit deal he did. So bad he wants to tear it up and start again!
    The same
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Let's hope so
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    mwadams said:

    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    I think you don't understand modern betting. With Smarkets and Betfair the boookie does not set the odds but provides a facility for those on either side of a bet to come together. A commission of 4/5% is charged to the winner's proceeds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Many consider him to be the optimal candidate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Just checked. Brexit vote for East Devon as a whole (and excluding Exeter) was 54/46 for out. Doesn't seem like a seat where a future Mr Frost would do notably well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,208
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for @Heathener re why we don't discuss faraway non-European conflicts. Well, the answer is we do.

    Here is a thread header I wrote on what China is doing to the Uighurs - from December 2019 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/09/lets-talk-about-islamophobia/.

    And another one in July 2020 - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/23/laundering-reputations-china-and-its-uighurs/#vanilla-comments.

    And this from November 2017 which mentions the Rohingya in the final paragraph - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/28/symbols-for-our-time/.

    All of the conflicts you have mentioned have been discussed both above and below the line.

    We could do with more discussion of Yemen though. Particularly since that is a proxy proxy war. The US stooges Saudi are backing one side, and Russia's stooges Iran are backing the other, and the Yemenis are caught in the middle in a war every bit as brutal as that in Ukraine.
    Sunni and Shia have been fighting each other for more than a millenium. If it wasn’t Yemen, they’d be fighting somewhere else.
    Is that really true? Certainly for the last 40 years, but before that?
    It’s been going on since the Phophet died, but it’s definitely escalated since the Iranian revolution of 1979.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Last thread, Leon noted that New Orleans is a Democratic city. True enough, but since the Civil War there's been STRONG political polarization White versus Black.

    Originally this was White Democrats versus (mostly) Black Republicans. Thus first (and so far only) African American governor of Louisiana, P.B.S.Pinchback, was GOP.

    But by late 1870s end of Reconstruction virtually eliminated Black suffrage in most of the Pelican State, with New Orleans a notable if minor exception, as the city had concentration of educated, professional, relatively well-off people of color (often considerably or even mostly of White ancestry) who were allowed to vote, albeit in limited numbers as definite exception to the rule. Often for Republicans (some were aspiring postmasters and the like under GOP POTUSes) but others aligned with local (White) Democratic factions contesting for dominance in the Crescent City (for example, New Choctaws versus Old Choctaws)

    The rise of Franklin Roosevelt in general, and Huey Long in particular, began changing this dynamic, as both attracted significant support from African Americans, simply by including them, even unequally, in federal relief and state infrastructure spending & investment.

    After WW2 shift of White > Republicans and Blacks > Democrats in Louisiana was marked milestones including Dixiecrats 1948, Goldwater 1964 and Wallace 1968. Culminating in the rise of local Republican Party as credible, competitive and ultimately dominate political force statewide.

    Though New Orleans was always more liberal & less reactionary than rest of state, there was similar progression toward GOP among local "Yats" (native White New Orleanians). However, these were mostly moving OUT of the city to the burbs (Jefferson Parish, St Tammany Parish) while in their wake the African American population kept increasing, to the point NO was a Black-majority city by IIRC 1980.

    Two notable exceptions to NO's Black-White political polarization were two of the Crescent City's best mayors: Moon and Mitch Landrieu, father and son.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
    I wonder what the local farmers think of Brexit? But the tourist industry might also have a view.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Carnyx said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Not a matter of him being deluded, but the True Brexiters in the Party. MP this week, candidate for Party Leader and PM next month ...
    Yes. I think what some pro-Boris PBers miss is that it is not just Remoaners saying Brexit has been a disaster, a lot of Brexiteers, including Lord Frost, are also saying Boris has made a complete mess of things. This is also why the Prime Minister needs ex-ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Cabinet — to shield Boris from the Brexit true believers.
    Pro-Boris PBers? Are there any left? Reminds me of "whatever happened to the Popular Front Reg?" "he is over there"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    Believe it was Clare Boothe Luce who coined the phrase "globaloney"
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Just checked. Brexit vote for East Devon as a whole (and excluding Exeter) was 54/46 for out. Doesn't seem like a seat where a future Mr Frost would do notably well.
    Tiv and Hon is almost as much mid Devon as East Devon and it is the least LibDem friendly bits of both. It's very rural - about 75 minutes by car from end to end. As a load of activists are about to discover!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    It would be a good way to ensure people like me do not return to the Tory fold. Maybe that is what they want. Make it a pure (almost) far right populist party somewhat similar to Marine Le Pen.
    I would like your comment but I do not like your legitimate question as there would be no return to the party for me
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,749
    Oryx has just reached 600 tanks destroyed.

    60 BTG's worth.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523

    mwadams said:

    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    I think you don't understand modern betting. With Smarkets and Betfair the boookie does not set the odds but provides a facility for those on either side of a bet to come together. A commission of 4/5% is charged to the winner's proceeds.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Remember that Smarkets are themselves betting into their own pools. Theirs is not a pure exchange model.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
    I wonder what the local farmers think of Brexit? But the tourist industry might also have a view.
    Surely local farmers will be realising they have been sold a pup.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    That it's time for a nice cup of tea?
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
    My wife called b****hit on the Tractor/Combine harvester excuse. She googled Dominator and got search results of videos of festivals, roller coasters, motorcycles and computer memory. No dodgy porn at all. She suggested that he is therefore likely to be a habitual porn watcher so that skewed his search results. Sounds fair to me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    I think the Tories will lose both by-elections, but the local election results are far more important.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    Carnyx said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Not a matter of him being deluded, but the True Brexiters in the Party. MP this week, candidate for Party Leader and PM next month ...
    Yes. I think what some pro-Boris PBers miss is that it is not just Remoaners saying Brexit has been a disaster, a lot of Brexiteers, including Lord Frost, are also saying Boris has made a complete mess of things. This is also why the Prime Minister needs ex-ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Cabinet — to shield Boris from the Brexit true believers.
    Pro-Boris PBers? Are there any left? Reminds me of "whatever happened to the Popular Front Reg?" "he is over there"
    @HYUFD ?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 6,366

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    You are Michael Howard and I claim my 2005 election slogan poster!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Oryx has just reached 600 tanks destroyed.

    60 BTG's worth.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    What is that as a percentage of their armour? It must be pretty significant. If Putin wants people to believe he has made Russia more secure, he might want to ask himself what losing huge quantities of equipment plus demonstrating your military is 3rd rate does for that security?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Carnyx said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    Not a matter of him being deluded, but the True Brexiters in the Party. MP this week, candidate for Party Leader and PM next month ...
    Yes. I think what some pro-Boris PBers miss is that it is not just Remoaners saying Brexit has been a disaster, a lot of Brexiteers, including Lord Frost, are also saying Boris has made a complete mess of things. This is also why the Prime Minister needs ex-ERG big cheese Jacob Rees-Mogg in the Cabinet — to shield Boris from the Brexit true believers.
    Pro-Boris PBers? Are there any left? Reminds me of "whatever happened to the Popular Front Reg?" "he is over there"
    @HYUFD ?
    Ah yep, that is the bloke. Splitter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,000
    edited May 2
    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Riley Reid or Brandi Love?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

    If so why did they put out the story the hotel did not do evening food
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077

    mwadams said:

    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    I think you don't understand modern betting. With Smarkets and Betfair the boookie does not set the odds but provides a facility for those on either side of a bet to come together. A commission of 4/5% is charged to the winner's proceeds.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Remember that Smarkets are themselves betting into their own pools. Theirs is not a pure exchange model.
    Surely when OGH is enobled for "services" to British gaming & psephology, he will take as his title one of following:
    > Lord Mikesmithson of Bedford and Monte Carlo
    > Lord Punter of Crackpot and Vegas
    > Lord PB of DotCom and WWW
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

    If so why did they put out the story the hotel did not do evening food
    Time of day, time to go back and get changed? Residents only, when there were others in the group?

    You'll be asking next how many spokes there were in the steering wheel of the tractor Mr Tiverton and Honiton was admiring.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (1 May):

    Labour 41% (-1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (-1)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 24 Apr

    Keir Starmer (35%, down 5%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, up 1%) by a narrow 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Quite a fall for Starmer. Have the Daily Mail actually scored a hit?
    He was interviewed on beergate (currygate) today and stonewalled every question and did look quite flustered
    Labour are doing a really poor job making this non story go away. The moment they were caught lying about Rayner gave it legs, then there was the hapless MP for Durhams drunken rant at a local Tory MP, now this. It’s inept.
    He was asked if the reports of curry being delivered and 30 people were in attendence and he failed to answer

    It has also come to light that when he said his hotel did not serve food that was not the case

    He seems to be getting asked daily at his media questions about it and he needs to respond to the questions and not look evasive
    Can you remember what not only you but the local hotel was doing 2 years ago? And at what times of day, remember? Breakfast, yes, but did they do dinner?

    It'd be positively suspicious if he could remember!

    If so why did they put out the story the hotel did not do evening food
    It's a non-story. It is a very sad attempt for Tories to make out Starmer is as bad as Johnson. I am not a Labour supporter, but Starmer is not. This story is nothing like the partygate narrative for Johnson. I doubt very much that Starmer or any of his staff gave out an award for "Sexist of the Year" either.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
    My wife called b****hit on the Tractor/Combine harvester excuse. She googled Dominator and got search results of videos of festivals, roller coasters, motorcycles and computer memory. No dodgy porn at all. She suggested that he is therefore likely to be a habitual porn watcher so that skewed his search results. Sounds fair to me.
    Fat fingers mean it is quite easy to think you are looking for a Claas Dominator combine harvester and actually end up looking for a classy dominatrix.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,749

    Oryx has just reached 600 tanks destroyed.

    60 BTG's worth.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    What is that as a percentage of their armour? It must be pretty significant. If Putin wants people to believe he has made Russia more secure, he might want to ask himself what losing huge quantities of equipment plus demonstrating your military is 3rd rate does for that security?
    Their reported tank numbers vary to a maximum of 20,000. No-one takes that number seriously for a whole host of reasons. 10,000 to 12,000 seems more reasonable for *stored* kit, although the word 'stored' could be replaced with left-out-without-a-turret-in-Siberian-winters.

    A minimum figure appears to be about 3,000 tanks immediately usable, or which can be used with some maintenance. Perhaps 3,500 to 5,000 is about right - although only if they scrape the bottom of the (non-rifled) barrel.

    The following was quite interesting:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    edited May 2
    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    Truly tragic.

    And here is his performance!

    Randy Newman - Louisiana 1927 - New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 5/1/22
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW3tY1l9Ol8
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers

    Hmmmm. Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

    You are Michael Howard and I claim my 2005 election slogan poster!
    Howard is Jewish...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    Truly tragic.

    And here is his performance!

    Randy Newman - Louisiana 1927 - New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 5/1/22
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW3tY1l9Ol8
    You’re not helping
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    If Frost does indeed stand in either I might be tempted by these odds on the tories, but I guess they would be gone 10 seconds after the announcement of his candidature!

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077

    Taz said:

    On topic Wakefield should be a comfortable gain but Tiverton and Honiton should be a hold if the conservatives pick a local, probably female, candidate but not so if Frost is parachuted in

    Why on earth do they want Frost to be parachuted in?

    He's already a Lord isn't he? He can be a minister and help guide the government on Brexit if that is what Johnson wants. I have no idea why Johnson would want that as Frost seems to have been promoted about six levels above his abilities judging by the brexit negotiations but thats up to Johnson.

    It only makes sense if Frost is so deluded he thinks one of the big offices of state could be his.
    He has support amongst members and some who think he would be the perfect candidate to succeed Boris

    I believe they are utterly misguided and it would be the wrong thing to do
    The Tories, surely, will pick a good local female candidate rather than parachute in Frost.

    Surely even they realise that they need a good candidate here.
    Hopefully one who doesn't turn out to have a back story as a Dominator!

    The tractor vote will only take you so far in Devon.
    My wife called b****hit on the Tractor/Combine harvester excuse. She googled Dominator and got search results of videos of festivals, roller coasters, motorcycles and computer memory. No dodgy porn at all. She suggested that he is therefore likely to be a habitual porn watcher so that skewed his search results. Sounds fair to me.
    Then are you at all glad, that she did NOT google "Dominator" using YOUR device?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/02/priti-patel-refugees-legal-action-homes-for-ukraine

    'The UK home secretary, Priti Patel, is facing mass legal action over delays that have left thousands of Ukrainians at risk of trauma and Russian bombs, or in limbo in eastern Europe.

    A class action lawsuit is being prepared on behalf of hundreds of Ukrainians who applied to travel to the UK weeks ago but whose cases have been stuck in a “chaotic” visa backlog, the Guardian has learned.'

    Interestingly, Ireland has taken/admitted about as many refugees as the UK despite about 1/13 the population.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523

    mwadams said:


    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    Bookmakers stop regularly successful punters from betting.
    Increasingly, bookmakers are so trigger happy that complete schmucks like yours truly are also barred.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    If I ever win the lottery, or make obscene amounts of money by other means (which I am working on), I'll pay for him to come and play a private gig. Just for us.

    One of the greats I have contrived to miss too....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    How do these long snookers finals actually work mentally. First to 18 or first to 7 and already 4 nil up?

    First to 18.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,638

    mwadams said:


    Are punters ever right? If they were, would bookmakers still exist?

    Bookmakers stop regularly successful punters from betting.
    Well, no problems there then!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will lose both by-elections, but the local election results are far more important.

    I was talking to my daughter and son in law who live in Abergele and a huge row has broken out over a public footpath through Gwrych Castle ( I'm a Celebrity fame) as the owner closed it and the villagers are furious. As it so happens the owner is standing as a conservative councillor on thursday with 3 others and they are all predicted to lose because of this dispute

    Seemingly national politics are not relevant in this local
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375
    Where is the balance of power in Tory by-election selection? Labour HQ influences the short-list heavily, but final selection is up to the CLP, who tend to be unpredictable. Can Tory HQ decree "It shall be Frost" or do local members have the final say?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    Truly tragic.

    And here is his performance!

    Randy Newman - Louisiana 1927 - New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 5/1/22
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW3tY1l9Ol8
    You’re not helping

    Leon said:

    Just been told that I missed Randy Newman at the NOLA jazz fest yesterday and now I want to open my wrists

    If I ever win the lottery, or make obscene amounts of money by other means (which I am working on), I'll pay for him to come and play a private gig. Just for us.

    One of the greats I have contrived to miss too....
    Short People is one of my favourite songs EVER

    I want to cry. I must solace myself with a half dozen on the half shell
This discussion has been closed.