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The remarkable collapse of Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
    It's nowhere near intercourse
    Or near Blue Ball, also in Pennsylvania.

    Or near Big Bone Lick, Kentucky. Or Climax, Georgia
    BBL is actually an old fossil mammal site known to the First Nations, while we are in a vertebrate evolution mood on PB today with turkeys and theropods etc. Large mammals such as mastodons trapped in the swamp around a salt spring which they came to lick. Hence the name. But it is nicely ambiguous ...
    Once surprised a friend of mine on a road trip, by driving to Big Bone Lick State Park without cluing him in to the destination.

    When he saw the sign, he nearly bust his britches laughing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bone_Lick_State_Park
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think that's true, because the Conservatives don't have that many to lose: don't forget they only won 1,332 last time. You would seem to suggest that a "par" performance for Labour is for them to wipe out 70% of remaining Conservative councillors.

    One of the problems is there are extensive boundary changes so trying to work out how many councillors each party starts with is difficult.

    Newham currently has 60 councillors but next Thursday we are electing 66 councillors. Let's assume Labour wins them all - is that +6 for Labour or no change since Labour controlled the Wards before?

    Do we take the absolute totals or "notional" totals?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Did you park outside?
    I don't think they have drive in laundromats.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    I don't think that's true, because the Conservatives don't have that many to lose: don't forget they only won 1,332 last time. You would seem to suggest that a "par" performance for Labour is for them to wipe out 70% of remaining Conservative councillors.
    lol 😂

    I think I am getting the hang of local elections now - everyone trying to set political opponents ridiculous targets to achieve.

    Us Lib Dems will just play it cool. We know who’ll be biggest winner on the night minus all this spin
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    In Ireland the news is of a deteriorating hospital beds crisis, with record numbers of patients waiting on trolleys for a bed, and a hit squad sent into Limerick's hospital.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    If the aim is cost control, an NHS model (GPs as gatekeepers, no need for marketing spend, probably less admin staff than is optimal, guilt-tripping to keep costs down) is pretty effective.

    If you want better health outcomes, there are other models with more promise, but they come at a cost.

    And one of the lessons of Spring 2020 is that boring, unglamourous public health stuff is actually pretty important. Wash your hands, eat your greens, do more exercise. And whilst that stuff shouldn't have to cost, the reality is that getting people to do it does, and public health has been ignored for ages.
    That could be an opportunity for the Green party especially, really drive fitness, healthy food as part of their plan for the country. A lot of benefits would flow from us being healthier and fitter, including economic productivity ones.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    If the aim is cost control, an NHS model (GPs as gatekeepers, no need for marketing spend, probably less admin staff than is optimal, guilt-tripping to keep costs down) is pretty effective.

    If you want better health outcomes, there are other models with more promise, but they come at a cost.

    And one of the lessons of Spring 2020 is that boring, unglamourous public health stuff is actually pretty important. Wash your hands, eat your greens, do more exercise. And whilst that stuff shouldn't have to cost, the reality is that getting people to do it does, and public health has been ignored for ages.
    One of the key take home messages from MD's coverage of the pandemic in the Eye - and not just for covid.
    This 1958 documentary on the 10-year-old NHS is notable for the three branches (hospitals, GPs, public health) taking potshots at each other.

    Casting real doctors instead of actors, this film uses scripted scenarios and interviews to see the National Health Service through their eyes. The documentary also shows that there is still division among doctors as to whether the NHS was a sound idea in the first place.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p013ylyp/on-call-to-a-nation
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Do you think LD will get less than 10% then? 👍
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 160
    Given continuous revelations and muddying of waters about politicians in both of the big parties, it seems extremely likely now that whoever becomes Prime Minister the next general election could justifiably be referred to in headers on PB as a 'Lockdown Bandit.' There may not be a betting market for this though.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    20 point lead nailed on.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Do you think LD will get less than 10% then? 👍
    Now behave. Or it will be a long evening. 😀
  • NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    That is a disaster for the Tories
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653
    Noticed my payslip has a reminder about the NICs increase, though they swallowed the spin about "Health and Social Care".

    Interesting to see if this has any political backlash if other people have the same.
  • Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP
  • novanova Posts: 690

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    edited April 2022
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Well, net EU migration has gone to under 100k per year, so it's non-EU that's gone through the roof.
    Driven by demographics, not politicians. Changing politicians, or demanding they lie to us about future immigration numbers is pointless.
    That isn't true at all. The surge in non-EU migration is because the government has dramatically scaled back what counts as "skilled workers". Under new rules, a shopkeeper or a social worker or a fencer earning 26k a year counts.
    For the last 20 years politicians have promised lower immigration but done nothing to stop it. Plenty to publicise and pretend they are doing something but nothing to stop it. The same will be true for the next 20 years.
    I think that is also not true. There has been genuine movement. Blair did limit asylum seekers back in the early 2000s. Cameron and May limited unskilled non-EU low skill worker and arranged marriage migration. Johnson has limited EU low skill immigration. But the immigration lobby always manages to get small changes in rules so there needs to be constant vigilance.

    We now have a good structure in place but we need to tighten up the thresholds. The minimum salary for skilled workers to be around the UK average full time salary of 35k. The minimum income requirement for spouse visas needs to be at a place where people will not be a net cost to the Treasury. That means a lifetime average earning of about 32k a year. You could maybe discount that by 25% given most people get married in their late 20s and will have wage growth. We should also limit the marriage visa so that it needs a genuine two year relationship, like the unmarried partner visa does.
    I don't think it's just that. The reality is that the UK - like the US - has lots and lots of different visa categories.

    We have student visas, we have marriage visas, we have family visas, we have visas based on starting companies, we have visas for people who get certain scores on points lists, we have visas for people doing intercorporate transfers, we have visas for people on secondment, we have working holiday visas etc.

    And some of these are only available to people from certain countries, like the working holidays one.

    The bulk of visas are not on the "skilled worker points" program (indeed, nowhere in the world no points based visas account for the majority of immigration), although I'm sure you're right that the number has increased. Do also remember that 26k is just one of the factors in the points based immigration - on its own it will be far from sufficient to get you in the country.

    Edit to add: skills based immigration only grew by 45,000 last year. Which is a pimple on the overall numbers.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    That is a disaster for the Tories

    I think that's possible, but only if the turnout is really really low.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    I don't think that's true, because the Conservatives don't have that many to lose: don't forget they only won 1,332 last time. You would seem to suggest that a "par" performance for Labour is for them to wipe out 70% of remaining Conservative councillors.
    I think I am getting the hang of local elections now - everyone trying to set political opponents ridiculous targets to achieve.
    Grand old tradition
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    And yet the number of sickly, fat people here in the USA is eye-popping. Sometimes the entire country feels like a rest home for the obese. OK I have recently been spending time in Walmarts and Laundromats in Mississippi but still

    ALSO: why don’t Southerners eat or drink outside? The climate is made - it seems - for sunny piazzas and shady terraces. Yet you can go from town to town without finding anything al fresco. Is it because they are ashamed to be seen drinking in the Bible Belt? Is it too hot and insecty to sit out in the summer? The number of welcoming porches with rocking chairs suggest not



  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    In the midst of war and economic crisis, we now have contributors comparing the size of their monitors.

    Time to pull the plug, OGH !!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Did you park outside?

    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    I don't think that's true, because the Conservatives don't have that many to lose: don't forget they only won 1,332 last time. You would seem to suggest that a "par" performance for Labour is for them to wipe out 70% of remaining Conservative councillors.
    Bjn doing some expectations management for Boris.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited April 2022

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."

    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    If the aim is cost control, an NHS model (GPs as gatekeepers, no need for marketing spend, probably less admin staff than is optimal, guilt-tripping to keep costs down) is pretty effective.

    If you want better health outcomes, there are other models with more promise, but they come at a cost.

    And one of the lessons of Spring 2020 is that boring, unglamourous public health stuff is actually pretty important. Wash your hands, eat your greens, do more exercise. And whilst that stuff shouldn't have to cost, the reality is that getting people to do it does, and public health has been ignored for ages.
    This is also my impression of how we stand on healthcare relative to our peers. We don't pay much and we get a touch - but only a touch - more than we pay for.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    I've never met a person from the USA that I didn't really like. They're delightful.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    edited April 2022
    nova said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
    The proper pseudosophagusts, like Raw Lynne and Thresher suggest Labour 36 Tories 32 and Libdems 17 from these election. I read it in the mail the other day. bigJohnknows is right it’s a high water market from spring 19 with Mays Tory’s melted down for Labour to achieve any excitement this time.

    I assure you the only excitement next week is just how high Libdems and Greens can go against main parties mired in sleaze.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
  • nova said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
    The proper pseudosophagusts, like Raw Lynne and Thresher suggest Labour 36 Tories 32 and Libdems 17 from these election. I read it in the mail the other day. bigJohnknows is right it’s a high water market from spring 19 with Mays Tory’s melted down for Labour to achieve any excitement this time.

    I assure you the only excitement next week is just how high Libdems can go against main parties mired in sleaze.
    I would be very surprised if the lib dems didn't exceed all expectations but only a week to find out
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,503
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    I don't think that's true, because the Conservatives don't have that many to lose: don't forget they only won 1,332 last time. You would seem to suggest that a "par" performance for Labour is for them to wipe out 70% of remaining Conservative councillors.
    I think I am getting the hang of local elections now - everyone trying to set political opponents ridiculous targets to achieve.
    Grand old tradition
    I won’t be draggged into anything so juvenile, so transparent and silly. I’ll just be posting “Lib dems winning here” throughout Thursday night instead. 🤭
  • novanova Posts: 690

    nova said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
    The proper pseudosophagusts, like Raw Lynne and Thresher suggest Labour 36 Tories 32 and Libdems 17 from these election. I read it in the mail the other day. bigJohnknows is right it’s a high water market from spring 19 with Mays Tory’s melted down for Labour to achieve any excitement this time.

    I assure you the only excitement next week is just how high Libdems and Greens can go against main parties mired in sleaze.
    I think you're mixing up the vote in the locals - which are heavily in Labour areas, and the projected national equivalent vote shares.

    36:32 looks about right as it was 35:35 last time.

    47:34 is comparable to 41:32 last time in the actual seats fought.
  • I hate ultrawides, would much rather have two distinct monitors side by side with my laptop screen below.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Did you park outside?

    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America
    After you complete the dryer cycle, perhaps you can check out some of the antebellum homes in Nachez area?

    OR take the bridge across the Mighty Mississippi to Ferriday, Louisiana and check out the Delta Music Museum, which among others chronicles the musical legacy of three local cousins: Jerry Lee Louis, Mickey Gilley and . . . wait for it . . . Jimmy Swaggart.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
    The roads have been magnificent throughout this trip: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi (Louisiana next and last). You really do have to drive in America (outside a few eastern cities), but they make sure driving is easy and smooth. The maintenance is immaculate. I have barely seen a pot hole in a week of driving. It puts the UK to shame, in that department
  • Today I’ve planted a load of (red and white) spring onion, parsnip, French bean, and cucumber seeds, and tomato plants. I’ve also dug all the many nettles and hopefully most of their roots out of this vegetable patch.

    We had a beer shortage at early lunch time. This looked a serious issue until I was brought a pint of gin and tonic to tide me over. Beer has since been restocked. I’m tempted to dig some more while there’s light.

    Might save the energy for moving into my new house tomorrow..


  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,912
    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
    Ah, you did the old Hunter S Thompson, eh?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited April 2022
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
    The roads have been magnificent throughout this trip: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi (Louisiana next and last). You really do have to drive in America (outside a few eastern cities), but they make sure driving is easy and smooth. The maintenance is immaculate. I have barely seen a pot hole in a week of driving. It puts the UK to shame, in that department
    Roads are great in the US where there is not a lot of thermal expansion and contraction. In Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, etc the road surface contracts in the cold winters, and then expands in the hot summers. It absolutely destroys roads surfaces.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    That is a disaster for the Tories

    Is that a national poll or a poll of the areas actually voting? Because the areas voting are mostly Labour areas and include London right?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    Given that Johnson won’t resign despite lying to Parliament, no one need resign for anything ever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    nova said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
    The proper pseudosophagusts, like Raw Lynne and Thresher suggest Labour 36 Tories 32 and Libdems 17 from these election. I read it in the mail the other day. bigJohnknows is right it’s a high water market from spring 19 with Mays Tory’s melted down for Labour to achieve any excitement this time.

    I assure you the only excitement next week is just how high Libdems can go against main parties mired in sleaze.
    I would be very surprised if the lib dems didn't exceed all expectations but only a week to find out
    I would expect them to make gains, but not a massive number. They did pretty well four years ago, and the Greens are nipping at their heals this time around.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    It could well be a sacking matter in any normal workplace. I.e. one not contolled by a bunch of contractors [edit] some of whom have already proven they are out to cheat and lie their way through things as much as possible.

    Remember that things were already very sensitive in Parliament, which is supposed to set the laws which ...
  • novanova Posts: 690
    biggles said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    That is a disaster for the Tories

    Is that a national poll or a poll of the areas actually voting? Because the areas voting are mostly Labour areas and include London right?
    That's for the the areas voting in the locals - so, yes Labour skewed.

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    biggles said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    That is a disaster for the Tories

    Is that a national poll or a poll of the areas actually voting? Because the areas voting are mostly Labour areas and include London right?
    Exactly: and how is it weighted?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
    Palm Springs has excellent transport links. The train stops there three times a week in each direction, in the middle of the night. The station is 7 miles from the city, in the middle of the desert, and there is no public transportation into town.
  • *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    I don't get what your issue is with Eat Out to Help Out. It was a huge success in getting people going out and about again which is exactly what it was designed to do, helped the most struggling businesses in the economy that needed it, cost an absolute pittance relative to other pandemic support and possibly even paid for itself in extra taxes raised on drinks etc sold with those meals.

    An innovative and big success, precisely what the Chancellor should be doing. Shame he's turned his back on that kind of thing and is just jacking up taxes like Gordon Brown to shovel at the black hole money pit instead now.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited April 2022
    nova said:

    biggles said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    That is a disaster for the Tories

    Is that a national poll or a poll of the areas actually voting? Because the areas voting are mostly Labour areas and include London right?
    That's for the the areas voting in the locals - so, yes Labour skewed.

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/
    So looking at it, Tories broadly flat but Labour up (looks like at the expense of the Liberals and Greens mostly). No idea how that plays out on the night.

    Also, national voting intention has a 10% split so at high end of the polling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    I've never met a person from the USA that I didn't really like. They're delightful.
    I've met plenty of Americans who not even their mothers would call 'delightful'. Still, I did work at Lehmans so I guess it was my own fault.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    A quick Google suggests most employers will consider it gross misconduct even if other's don't see you.

    Given that he's doing it in a semi-public environment, with female colleagues around him, I'd say it would be a sackable offence most places.

    When you consider that he's (naïve I know), meant to be representing his constituents in Parliament, I'd say he should be held to pretty high standards.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
    The roads have been magnificent throughout this trip: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi (Louisiana next and last). You really do have to drive in America (outside a few eastern cities), but they make sure driving is easy and smooth. The maintenance is immaculate. I have barely seen a pot hole in a week of driving. It puts the UK to shame, in that department
    Roads are great in the US where there is not a lot of thermal expansion and contraction. In Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, etc the road surface contracts in the cold winters, and then expands in the hot summers. It absolutely destroys roads surfaces.
    Years ago, rode shotgun with a friend who was delivering & picking up bulls for cattle-breeding purposes in upper New England. We drove from West Virginia, and it was easy to tellwhen when entered "Live Free or Die" New Hampshire, where locals were bound and determined to keep taxes to the bare minimum.

    Or even below, judging from the state of the state highways. Which were notable for signs saying "Frost Heave" or something like that, which I had NEVER seen anywhere else (and still haven't) in US or elsewhere.

    Though we didn't need the sign to tell us, as going over the humps in the road caused by said frost heaves at anything over 10 miles an hour was a REAL jolt to the system!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    45 minutes of Nadine Dorries talking to the Spectator.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMarkuxrdF8
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Boris sent to prison.

    Sadly, not that Boris.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Slovak PM E. Heger said recently that he could transfer 🇸🇰‘s MiG-29s to 🇺🇦 if its allies will protect 🇸🇰‘s skies until it receives its F-16s in 2024.

    Visiting 🇸🇰 today, Polish Defense Minister
    @mblaszczak
    confirmed that 🇵🇱’s F-16 will start patrolling 🇸🇰‘s airspace.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519994641319354368
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,912

    nova said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
    The proper pseudosophagusts, like Raw Lynne and Thresher suggest Labour 36 Tories 32 and Libdems 17 from these election. I read it in the mail the other day. bigJohnknows is right it’s a high water market from spring 19 with Mays Tory’s melted down for Labour to achieve any excitement this time.

    I assure you the only excitement next week is just how high Libdems and Greens can go against main parties mired in sleaze.
    Is 'Pseudosophagusts' a known word or one you have invented? I'm all for not being a slave to the English language but if it is an invention it would be nice to know the meaning.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Nigelb said:

    Slovak PM E. Heger said recently that he could transfer 🇸🇰‘s MiG-29s to 🇺🇦 if its allies will protect 🇸🇰‘s skies until it receives its F-16s in 2024.

    Visiting 🇸🇰 today, Polish Defense Minister
    @mblaszczak
    confirmed that 🇵🇱’s F-16 will start patrolling 🇸🇰‘s airspace.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519994641319354368

    Russia is f###ed. We must now be doing more than Ukraine could ever have hoped for.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP

    Err… how would winning 55 out of 57 seats be “RIP”? Unionists live in a fantasy world.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Did you park outside?

    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America
    After you complete the dryer cycle, perhaps you can check out some of the antebellum homes in Nachez area?

    OR take the bridge across the Mighty Mississippi to Ferriday, Louisiana and check out the Delta Music Museum, which among others chronicles the musical legacy of three local cousins: Jerry Lee Louis, Mickey Gilley and . . . wait for it . . . Jimmy Swaggart.
    I stayed in an antebellum mansion last night.

    The wonderful Monmouth Inn. I guzzled plentiful G&Ts with the owner, who told me all the stories

    A terrifying history of slavery is attached to the place. The mid 19th century owner was a ferocious Confederate secessionist and personally owned 400 slaves. And yet it is beautiful, the grounds are lovely, the Spanish moss sways in the warm evening breeze. The darkness and light of the South is so compelling. These incredibly friendly people live right alongside this appallingly brutal backstory, I think they cope with the cognitive dissonance mainly by ignoring it


    https://www.monmouthhistoricinn.com/

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    It could well be a sacking matter in any normal workplace. I.e. one not contolled by a bunch of contractors [edit] some of whom have already proven they are out to cheat and lie their way through things as much as possible.

    Remember that things were already very sensitive in Parliament, which is supposed to set the laws which ...
    As well as the act itself, we should not overlook the crass stupidity of watching porn or anything sensitive when surrounded by colleagues *and television cameras*. Had drink been taken?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    carnforth said:

    stodge said:



    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.

    Palm Springs has excellent transport links. The train stops there three times a week in each direction, in the middle of the night. The station is 7 miles from the city, in the middle of the desert, and there is no public transportation into town.
    That explains the car, my friend.

    We were staying in Rancho Mirage - it's just a gorgeous place. We were there for New Year - breakfast on the terrace, us in short sleeves, the locals in coats. They thought we were mad but we weren't the only ones - the other mad people were Canadians.

    I wish there was a direct flight to Palm Springs from the UK.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    rcs1000 said:


    I would expect them to make gains, but not a massive number. They did pretty well four years ago, and the Greens are nipping at their heals this time around.

    I think okay rather than pretty well would be my take on 2018. The following year was very good and looking at the bigger picture, the Conservatives start from a much lower base next year so it could be the beginning of the fight back (apparently).

    The Greens may not do so well when in direct competition with the LDs but they are putting up a lot more candidates and in areas where the LDs aren't standing so they could well make some gains.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited April 2022
    nova said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    A quick Google suggests most employers will consider it gross misconduct even if other's don't see you.

    Given that he's doing it in a semi-public environment, with female colleagues around him, I'd say it would be a sackable offence most places.

    When you consider that he's (naïve I know), meant to be representing his constituents in Parliament, I'd say he should be held to pretty high standards.
    So do I, that's why I think suspension would be on the cards, but not resignation. I think MPs get away with a lot more than they should by pointing to the fact they are elected, not employed, but there is a nugget of truth in it - they could do no work for five years for example, and that would not be acceptable in a real job but would for them. It's certainly worth more than a talking to, as rcs1000 notes, but you can be a criminal and not be required to resign, so resignation for misconduct seems too much.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP

    Err… how would winning 55 out of 57 seats be “RIP”? Unionists live in a fantasy world.
    CHB means the SNP would be RIPPED to do so well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    One for @BlancheLivermore

    Catfish tacos and salsa with Fat Tire lager, overlooking the wide Mississippi at Under-the-Hill, Natchez


  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP

    Err… how would winning 55 out of 57 seats be “RIP”? Unionists live in a fantasy world.
    I think he meant RIP for the SNP's chances of forcing Starmer to give them an indyref. Whether one happened or not would be at Starmer's discretion, not because he had no choice in order to form a government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Did you park outside?

    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America
    You see the real jaw-dropping America on a Greyhound bus.
    Pass me a cigarette I think there's one in my raincoat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    What serendipitous timing for the review to report

    The British Virgin Islands' (BVI) constitution should be suspended and its government dissolved, a review says, amid concerns about corruption.

    The overseas territory would effectively be returned to direct rule from London under the recommendations.

    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the arrest of BVI's premier in the US showed the need for "urgent action".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61276109

    It's the scale of a moderately sized town, so presumably not hard to run. Maybe just go for full independence and keep the well behaving overseas territories?
  • Roger said:

    nova said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    No chance. Absolute fantasy polling if that’s poll % on night.

    I was telling myself, no polling company would be daft enough to try one of these.
    Why fantasy?

    In 2018, the Labour lead in these seats was 9% which was the equivalent of a tie nationally.

    A 13% lead across these seats wouldn't be out of whack given Labour's national lead in the polls.
    The proper pseudosophagusts, like Raw Lynne and Thresher suggest Labour 36 Tories 32 and Libdems 17 from these election. I read it in the mail the other day. bigJohnknows is right it’s a high water market from spring 19 with Mays Tory’s melted down for Labour to achieve any excitement this time.

    I assure you the only excitement next week is just how high Libdems and Greens can go against main parties mired in sleaze.
    Is 'Pseudosophagusts' a known word or one you have invented? I'm all for not being a slave to the English language but if it is an invention it would be nice to know the meaning.
    I prefer "electionologists".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent

    Still seems to me like No.10 want the assembly to collapse so it doesn't matter if SF would get the First Minister gig. Even with the power sharing arrangements I doubt they are happy about it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kle4 said:

    What serendipitous timing for the review to report

    The British Virgin Islands' (BVI) constitution should be suspended and its government dissolved, a review says, amid concerns about corruption.

    The overseas territory would effectively be returned to direct rule from London under the recommendations.

    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the arrest of BVI's premier in the US showed the need for "urgent action".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61276109

    It's the scale of a moderately sized town, so presumably not hard to run. Maybe just go for full independence and keep the well behaving overseas territories?

    Perhaps we could find an eminent QC or a former attorney general who could act as governor?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent

    The DUP aren't bothered cos they aren't going to accept the result. Direct rule for a very long time.
    And the Protocol remains popular in NI.
    Playing with fire here.
    PS.
    I reckon SF will be the story of these elections. Not many seem to realise they are going to win. It will come as a shock to your average Joe and Jo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Apparently the largest political party in the British Virgin Islands is the Virgin Islands Party. Talk about lazy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    What serendipitous timing for the review to report

    The British Virgin Islands' (BVI) constitution should be suspended and its government dissolved, a review says, amid concerns about corruption.

    The overseas territory would effectively be returned to direct rule from London under the recommendations.

    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the arrest of BVI's premier in the US showed the need for "urgent action".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61276109

    It's the scale of a moderately sized town, so presumably not hard to run. Maybe just go for full independence and keep the well behaving overseas territories?

    Perhaps we could find an eminent QC or a former attorney general who could act as governor?
    Government likes to run on the cheap though...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP

    Err… how would winning 55 out of 57 seats be “RIP”? Unionists live in a fantasy world.
    I think he meant RIP for the SNP's chances of forcing Starmer to give them an indyref. Whether one happened or not would be at Starmer's discretion, not because he had no choice in order to form a government.
    Imagine if an English political party won 96% of your country’s constituencies, but was denied the implementation of their key manifesto promise because the next-door-neighbours objected? One cannot. It is unimaginable.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,582

    I hate ultrawides, would much rather have two distinct monitors side by side with my laptop screen below.

    When I was at Acorn (late 1990s) I had what I called my 'radiation booth': five CRT monitors in a corner cubicle, all pointing towards me. And an upside-down footprint on the partition. The carpets were blue, and the partitions pink. Lovely. :)

    (from memory, the monitors were a RISC PC for coding, a Mac, a PC, and two monitors for prototype development.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    stodge said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:



    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.

    Palm Springs has excellent transport links. The train stops there three times a week in each direction, in the middle of the night. The station is 7 miles from the city, in the middle of the desert, and there is no public transportation into town.
    That explains the car, my friend.

    We were staying in Rancho Mirage - it's just a gorgeous place. We were there for New Year - breakfast on the terrace, us in short sleeves, the locals in coats. They thought we were mad but we weren't the only ones - the other mad people were Canadians.

    I wish there was a direct flight to Palm Springs from the UK.
    When was this? Palm Springs has gone downhill, I fear

    I went there 10 years ago and it was brilliant. An actual walkable downtown. Lots of lively streets with bars and cafes and a cool vibe

    I went again in 2019 and it was much edgier. Homelessness, drug addicts, the usual. Still some wonderfully historic Rat Pack hotels and all that, however

    Perhaps it is back on the up again, post-Covid
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
    Back in 1995/6, our senior system tester working on a Saturday was caught looking at Internet porn whilst system testing a telephone exchange in short timescales - in between tests whilst the exchange was processing.

    Director had previously announced a big posturing pose that anyone caught misusing the Internet at work would be sacked.

    So he ended up sacking his best and most experienced system tester, slowed the tests down as he had lost 15 years of experience, and the chap was working at a competitor for £1200 a week 7 days later.

    Overly dogmatic are a bad thing,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
    The allegations include when he was chairing a select committee. This does not seem to be an isolated event.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP

    Err… how would winning 55 out of 57 seats be “RIP”? Unionists live in a fantasy world.
    I think he meant RIP for the SNP's chances of forcing Starmer to give them an indyref. Whether one happened or not would be at Starmer's discretion, not because he had no choice in order to form a government.
    Imagine if an English political party won 96% of your country’s constituencies, but was denied the implementation of their key manifesto promise because the next-door-neighbours objected? One cannot. It is unimaginable.
    You had your vote in 2014 and you got the chance to be free. Instead you said No, we prefer to be a colony, thanks

    You will get another chance when we allow it, probably in the late 2080s?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent

    Why are the DUP going to refuse to serve with the daughter and niece of IRA men in the shape of Michelle O’Neill, when they served with an actual IRA man in the shape of Martin McGuinness?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
    The allegations include when he was chairing a select committee. This does not seem to be an isolated event.
    That’s extraordinary and suggests online porn addiction. Which does happen, of course
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627

    kle4 said:

    What serendipitous timing for the review to report

    The British Virgin Islands' (BVI) constitution should be suspended and its government dissolved, a review says, amid concerns about corruption.

    The overseas territory would effectively be returned to direct rule from London under the recommendations.

    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the arrest of BVI's premier in the US showed the need for "urgent action".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61276109

    It's the scale of a moderately sized town, so presumably not hard to run. Maybe just go for full independence and keep the well behaving overseas territories?

    Perhaps we could find an eminent QC or a former attorney general who could act as governor?
    Perhaps a job for Jolyon Maugham? A chance to put his Good Law into practice.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Slovak PM E. Heger said recently that he could transfer 🇸🇰‘s MiG-29s to 🇺🇦 if its allies will protect 🇸🇰‘s skies until it receives its F-16s in 2024.

    Visiting 🇸🇰 today, Polish Defense Minister
    @mblaszczak
    confirmed that 🇵🇱’s F-16 will start patrolling 🇸🇰‘s airspace.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519994641319354368

    Russia is f###ed. We must now be doing more than Ukraine could ever have hoped for.
    Putin is a pussy, seems to be official doctrine, and seems to be right. I do wonder, though: this is muscly barechested-on-a-horse man being humiliated in the runup to May 9...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    dixiedean said:

    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent

    The DUP aren't bothered cos they aren't going to accept the result. Direct rule for a very long time.
    And the Protocol remains popular in NI.
    Playing with fire here.
    PS.
    I reckon SF will be the story of these elections. Not many seem to realise they are going to win. It will come as a shock to your average Joe and Jo.
    Indeed. The spectacle of Michelle O’Neill becoming First Minister of a jurisdiction she considers an illegitimate state will be some story.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,941
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
    Back in 1995/6, our senior system tester working on a Saturday was caught looking at Internet porn whilst system testing a telephone exchange in short timescales - in between tests whilst the exchange was processing.

    Director had previously announced a big posturing pose that anyone caught misusing the Internet at work would be sacked.

    So he ended up sacking his best and most experienced system tester, slowed the tests down as he had lost 15 years of experience, and the chap was working at a competitor for £1200 a week 7 days later.

    Overly dogmatic are a bad thing,
    If he'd been doing cocaine at work, would that be OK because he's a good worker? If he came to work drinks wearing an SS uniform, etc...

    It's not overly dogmatic to expect basic standards of decency from people while they're at work.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
    The allegations include when he was chairing a select committee. This does not seem to be an isolated event.
    It was never likely to be the only occasion he'd done it, but if they can prove he has been serially doing it that does up the appropriate punishment and suggest a deeper problem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    dixiedean said:

    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent

    The DUP aren't bothered cos they aren't going to accept the result. Direct rule for a very long time.
    And the Protocol remains popular in NI.
    Playing with fire here.
    PS.
    I reckon SF will be the story of these elections. Not many seem to realise they are going to win. It will come as a shock to your average Joe and Jo.
    Indeed. The spectacle of Michelle O’Neill becoming First Minister of a jurisdiction she considers an illegitimate state will be some story.
    Psycologically, sure, but aren't the First and Deputy roles in NI effectively joint heads already?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    nova said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    A quick Google suggests most employers will consider it gross misconduct even if other's don't see you.

    Given that he's doing it in a semi-public environment, with female colleagues around him, I'd say it would be a sackable offence most places.

    When you consider that he's (naïve I know), meant to be representing his constituents in Parliament, I'd say he should be held to pretty high standards.
    I won't comment on Neil Parish, as I know him and have worked with him on various issues - we'll see what comes out.

    Molre broadly, there are two separate issues, aren't there? One is pursuing private entertainment while sitting in the Chamber - would apply equally if the MP was watching football or playing Wordle. The other is that although watching porn privately is undoubtedly quite common (not sure if there are reliable figures?), it's not universal and it upsets a significant number of people to be forced to see it by sitting next to someone (at work, on a bus, etc.).

    The first issue is not a resigning matter - as I said yesterday, MPs just don't listen riveted to every word in a debate, and everyone in the House knows that. It would however be expected that they do work stuff - answer constituents, look up issues, etc. - so I'd expect an MP spotted watching football in the Chamber to just get a warning from the whips to concentrate on the job.

    The second issue is more serious, and at the least constitutes reckless disregard for the feelings of colleagues, or astonishing ignorance of how they might feel. That probably is a matter for permanent loss of the whip, and perhaps resignation.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    I don't get what your issue is with Eat Out to Help Out. It was a huge success in getting people going out and about again which is exactly what it was designed to do, helped the most struggling businesses in the economy that needed it, cost an absolute pittance relative to other pandemic support and possibly even paid for itself in extra taxes raised on drinks etc sold with those meals.

    An innovative and big success, precisely what the Chancellor should be doing. Shame he's turned his back on that kind of thing and is just jacking up taxes like Gordon Brown to shovel at the black hole money pit instead now.
    It coincided with the start of the autumn wave of Covid and so for Covid doomsayers it caused it. I’d note it coincided with restart of travel to Spain, which was the real start of the autumn wave, in the same way that Kent started alpha etc. So for the doomers it was a failure as it caused Covid to surge. It may have played a role, but there were many other factors. As we now know vaccines are the key to returning to normality, but we were not sure in August 2020 that the vaccines would work as well as they did. Trying to open and balance Covid was always going to be tricky.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    Was it the Civitas report just published? It shows the NHS does badly on most outcomes except for diabetes — huzzah for @Foxy — but if you read a couple of dozen pages past the headlines and into the report, there is a handy table showing Britain's per capita health spend is, erm, 14th. If we want French or German healthcare, we shall need to write some big cheques).
    https://civitas.org.uk/publications/international-health-care-outcomes-index-2022/
    Perhaps. As I said at the moment there is no coordination between different parts of the health service and no real incentive (aside from wanting to keep people alive/well) not to perform badly, as you say in almost every area.

    Is it about spending? Not sure - my impression is that it is the culture. Of resentment by the NHS workers at "the bosses/govt/the man". Would they do a better job if they were paid more? As I said, perhaps.
    Don't think so. When we threw substantial money at it in 2005-2010, waiting lists dropped like a stone (18 weeks vs previously up to 2 years). Clearly money isn't everything, but it does help!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Er, yeah, there wasn’t a Tube station right outside, and Uber barely exists in Natchez

    Have you not BEEN to America? You can’t go anywhere without a car. Which is one reason people should learn to drive: to see America

    My first American driving experience was driving from Los Angeles to Palm Springs, Getting out of LA was an experience - terrible roads.

    You don't need a car in Vegas but there's nothing like cruising along the Strip and you can access some of the very good restaurants to be found in Henderson and the other Vegas suburbs.
    The roads have been magnificent throughout this trip: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi (Louisiana next and last). You really do have to drive in America (outside a few eastern cities), but they make sure driving is easy and smooth. The maintenance is immaculate. I have barely seen a pot hole in a week of driving. It puts the UK to shame, in that department
    My first US road trip was picking up a rental in Atlantic City NJ, drive to Cape May, the Cape Charles, then New Bern, Charleston, Beaufort SC, Savannah, across the Okefenokee Swamp, Tallahasee, Mobile, Norlins, up the Natchez, Oxford MS, Nashville, Daniel Boone National Forest, Ashville, up the Blue Ridge to Stanton VA, then Cumberland MD, following the mountains all the way up to Watertown, NY, then across to Montpelier, Bangor Maine, and down to Concord MA, then to Albany and down the Hudson, back to Atlantic City. Took a while, but I was between jobs. :D
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    nova said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    A quick Google suggests most employers will consider it gross misconduct even if other's don't see you.

    Given that he's doing it in a semi-public environment, with female colleagues around him, I'd say it would be a sackable offence most places.

    When you consider that he's (naïve I know), meant to be representing his constituents in Parliament, I'd say he should be held to pretty high standards.
    I won't comment on Neil Parish, as I know him and have worked with him on various issues - we'll see what comes out.

    Molre broadly, there are two separate issues, aren't there? One is pursuing private entertainment while sitting in the Chamber - would apply equally if the MP was watching football or playing Wordle. The other is that although watching porn privately is undoubtedly quite common (not sure if there are reliable figures?), it's not universal and it upsets a significant number of people to be forced to see it by sitting next to someone (at work, on a bus, etc.).

    The first issue is not a resigning matter - as I said yesterday, MPs just don't listen riveted to every word in a debate, and everyone in the House knows that. It would however be expected that they do work stuff - answer constituents, look up issues, etc. - so I'd expect an MP spotted watching football in the Chamber to just get a warning from the whips to concentrate on the job.

    The second issue is more serious, and at the least constitutes reckless disregard for the feelings of colleagues, or astonishing ignorance of how they might feel. That probably is a matter for permanent loss of the whip, and perhaps resignation.
    The standard for resignation has been set very high (or low) recently. I think it is gross misconduct in a lot of workplaces, probably the majority, but think if there is a sincere apology, then a short ban and some training would be acceptable here.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    An issue that Ben Wallace might find tricky if he became PM:

    https://mailchi.mp/tortoisemedia/porking-up-2?e=484b7928c0
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited April 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Do people think he should? Is the crime looking at porn on a mobile phone or doing it in parliament? I can see why Angela Rayner could feel offended but I struggle to see who the hapless Neil Parish has upset unless he shared the film with someone inappropriate
    It is not, to my mind, a resigning matter. I think it appropriate he should face a party consequence, and possibly even some as an MP, since watching porn whilst you are supposed to be at work brings both into disrepute (maintaining high standards is not merely an issue of if you have upset someone) and would result in a warning or some disciplinary for others, but resigning over it would be very disproportionate.
    I think my place might think about whether it was gross misconduct if done on the floor plate in front of others, as opposed to hidden away.
    If I found an employee was in their own office, looking at porn when they were supposed to be working, it would be a disciplinary issue:

    "Oi. I pay you to work, not to look at porn. Don't do it again or there'll be serious consequences."

    On the other hand, if it was in a meeting, and other employees were exposed it, it would be a much more serious offence. I don't know whether it would merit immediate dismissal, but it certainly would be a lot more than just a talking to.
    Back in 1995/6, our senior system tester working on a Saturday was caught looking at Internet porn whilst system testing a telephone exchange in short timescales - in between tests whilst the exchange was processing.

    Director had previously announced a big posturing pose that anyone caught misusing the Internet at work would be sacked.

    So he ended up sacking his best and most experienced system tester, slowed the tests down as he had lost 15 years of experience, and the chap was working at a competitor for £1200 a week 7 days later.

    Overly dogmatic are a bad thing,
    If he'd been doing cocaine at work, would that be OK because he's a good worker? If he came to work drinks wearing an SS uniform, etc...

    It's not overly dogmatic to expect basic standards of decency from people while they're at work.
    It depends on your view of "basic standards of decency" in the context, doesn't it? And how sanctions should be graduated.

    In this case it was a Saturday, and no one else was there, and it delayed a new release (normal routine 1 release per 8-10 months) of the main product of a £100m business by some weeks. Detected via log files.

    My judgement in that case looking back (and for an occurrence now) would be a final written warning.

    As for SS uniform at work drinks - that also depends imo. Perhaps it would be themed around The Producers or Allo Allo. Personally I don't have much of a problem with satirising Nazis; laughing at them is an important part of taking them sufficiently serious imo - ditto similar groups on the far left. A "Producers" for Putin would be interesting, with that huge long table. Or perhaps for Iran.

    Doing cocaine is perhaps in a different category, as it is criminal under the law of the land - up to 7 years for possession. Viewing pornography is not criminal. Also drugs have an impact on work.
  • Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
    Labour - 329 (+126)
    Tories - 233 (-132)
    Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
    Greens - 1
    SNP - 55 (+7)
    Plaid - 4
    NI - 18

    Labour majority predicted, RIP SNP

    Err… how would winning 55 out of 57 seats be “RIP”? Unionists live in a fantasy world.
    I think he meant RIP for the SNP's chances of forcing Starmer to give them an indyref. Whether one happened or not would be at Starmer's discretion, not because he had no choice in order to form a government.
    Got it in one, you can be my interpreter
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    dixiedean said:

    Sinn Fein set to be Northern Ireland’s largest party for first time

    Michelle O’Neill on course to be nominated first minister – but DUP leader ‘not bothered’ by shock poll

    The Irish nationalists hold a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the crucial 5 May election, with experts warning of a constitutional crisis on the way.

    Downing Street is thought to be drawing up legislation for the 10 May Queen’s speech aimed at unilaterally “tearing up” parts of the protocol it does not like – despite warnings by Brussels it would violate the treaty signed by Mr Johnson over two years ago.

    Independent

    The DUP aren't bothered cos they aren't going to accept the result. Direct rule for a very long time.
    And the Protocol remains popular in NI.
    Playing with fire here.
    PS.
    I reckon SF will be the story of these elections. Not many seem to realise they are going to win. It will come as a shock to your average Joe and Jo.
    Indeed. The spectacle of Michelle O’Neill becoming First Minister of a jurisdiction she considers an illegitimate state will be some story.
    Michelle O'Neill + Nicola Sturgeon.

    Perhaps we need a new collective noun?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited April 2022
    Just seen the Boris Becker news. Ridiculous that someone gets such a long prison sentence for a financial crime. He ought to be doing community service for the next 5 years in my opinion.
This discussion has been closed.