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The remarkable collapse of Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 3 in General
imageThe remarkable collapse of Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

There is a new poll out from Ipsos which has LAB with a 5% lead which is no change. As is the normal practice with the firm their regular poll each month comes out with an array of different charts and analyses. The one I am highlighting above shows the quite extraordinary change in the fortunes of Rishi Sunak since August 2020.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157
    Who?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    At least he didn’t have far to fall.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157
    Surprised Peak Rishi was only 36% Agree and 7% net. My memories of phoney Rishimania have bitten the dust.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Leave/Remain is yesterday's war. The Tories need someone competent and credible to stop what is currently looking like an inevitable win by Labour at the next election.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Is Ydoethur out of work yet? Minor county west hit for six! 🤭
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,785
    In the quest to save Big Dog the names of those thrown under buses is growing ever longer, Sunak, Starmer, Rayner and now Parish. Who next?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    tlg86 said:

    At least he didn’t have far to fall.

    Makes me think of those pictures of him in army fatigues where he looks like he nicked them from Action Man.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited April 29

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Thinking about this porn thing, it is harder and harder, fnaaar, to see what the offence is. If looking at stuff on your phone is allowed, if this was legal porn with properly paid, non exploited actors, if the member for tiverton was not visibly aroused and/or being attended to, what are we complaining about? Ok it might be a bit of a contempt of the House, but doing wordle is neither more nor less discourteous. If Byrne's persistent bullying of an underling is worth 2 days this scores about 90 minutes on the same scale.

    Visibly reading porn in front of colleagues who don't like it is a serious offence in any sensible workplace.
    It would be grounds for summary dismissal in many places.

    Byrne's punishment was effectively reduced by the fact that the body responsible doesn't hear complaints regarding bullying during campaigning incidents.
    At one of my workplaces a number of years ago, someone took their own life because of bullying.

    It is way more serious than viewing legal porn.

    In fact, sustained bullying is a criminal offence. Viewing legal porn is not.

    It is certainly wrong to be watching legal porn at the HoC -- but Byrne's offence is the greater & more serious one.
    Without diminishing the Byrne case, one should bear in mind that watching porn in front of people who don't like it - who are often women - is an increasingly well-recognised form of bullying.
    I am not defending people watching porn in the HoC -- but I think it is not as serious as sustained bullying which can & does lead to people taking their own life.

    I was surprised yesterday that Byrne's suspension was so short.
    That story seemed to get quickly swept under the carpet by the media. It had dropped off the BBC front page by tea time. Guardian the same. Even the right leaning papers didn't seem very interested in it. And it isn't as if Bryne doesn't have a long held reputation for being an extremely difficult person to work for.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    In the quest to save Big Dog the names of those thrown under buses is growing ever longer, Sunak, Starmer, Rayner and now Parish. Who next?

    It is too much to hope that he might throw himself.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,712

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Leave/Remain is yesterday's war. The Tories need someone competent and credible to stop what is currently looking like an inevitable win by Labour at the next election.
    They don't seem to understand this "yesterday's war" point. Nor are they interested in delivering what Brexit was supposed to do. As an example, the indefinite delay in carrying out the inbound checks on products coming across the border. A key component of the "oven-ready" deal where we wanted 3rd country status, it isn't getting implemented and we have ceded all control over UK standards to the EU.

    So why when it comes to new leaders do they insist it must be a leaver?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157

    In the quest to save Big Dog the names of those thrown under buses is growing ever longer, Sunak, Starmer, Rayner and now Parish. Who next?

    I don't accept that Parish was thrown by a third party; he tossed himself off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    edited April 29
    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,712
    Entirely off-topic, but I'm passing through Luton airport on my way home from Cluj-Napoca. What a beautiful country Romania is! Huge history, amazing old castles and citadels, fabulous mountains and yet it seems almost entirely ignored by tourists.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    O/t Mr Jessop;
    No, missed your pic. If past experience is any guide we are due a couple more eggs and then Mrs B-t will settle in to incubate, probably on Sunday or Monday.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Leave/Remain is yesterday's war. The Tories need someone competent and credible to stop what is currently looking like an inevitable win by Labour at the next election.
    They don't seem to understand this "yesterday's war" point. Nor are they interested in delivering what Brexit was supposed to do. As an example, the indefinite delay in carrying out the inbound checks on products coming across the border. A key component of the "oven-ready" deal where we wanted 3rd country status, it isn't getting implemented and we have ceded all control over UK standards to the EU.

    So why when it comes to new leaders do they insist it must be a leaver?
    They don't, do they? Most of the people I've seen who assume it must be a Leaver voted Remain.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Leave/Remain is yesterday's war. The Tories need someone competent and credible to stop what is currently looking like an inevitable win by Labour at the next election.
    They don't seem to understand this "yesterday's war" point. Nor are they interested in delivering what Brexit was supposed to do. As an example, the indefinite delay in carrying out the inbound checks on products coming across the border. A key component of the "oven-ready" deal where we wanted 3rd country status, it isn't getting implemented and we have ceded all control over UK standards to the EU.

    So why when it comes to new leaders do they insist it must be a leaver?
    Because they would rather impose someone that is thick as shit, provided he/she is a true believer, largely because with the additional benefit of hindsight you have to be the the former to be the latter.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174

    ...we have ceded all control over UK standards to the EU.

    That's precisely what you wanted when you voted for it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    As long as it includes this video.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,616

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Time to get back to basics.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    edited April 29
    FPT - Robert: so did Madison Cawthorn vote for Ukraine Lend Lease bill - yes

    https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2022141

    HOWEVER, note the House roll calls on two key procedural motions

    On Agreeing to the Resolution
    Providing for consideration of the bill (S. 3522) Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, and for other proposes
    Yea 220 Nay 205 not voting 4
    > Democrats Yea = all
    > Republicans Nay = all except 4 not voting

    On Ordering the Previous Question

    Providing for consideration of the bill (S. 3522) Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, and for other purposes
    Yea 218 Nay 204 not voting 7
    > Democrats Yea = all except 2 not voting
    > Republicans Nay = all except 5 not voting

    https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2022/index.asp

    SSI - Rep. Cawthorne (R-Hell) is clearly trying to ensure that he does NOT lose his bid for renomination in upcoming May 7 North Carolina Primary.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    ...we have ceded all control over UK standards to the EU.

    That's precisely what you wanted when you voted for it.
    Remind me which way you voted?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    I wonder whether this would justify the whip being withdrawn (as it were):

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/bbc-wales-today-yvette-amos-interview-b1793340.html
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,923
    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Including those whiny, pesky Ukraine "refugees"?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,630

    In the quest to save Big Dog the names of those thrown under buses is growing ever longer, Sunak, Starmer, Rayner and now Parish. Who next?

    Truss
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,483
    For a long time, Rishi was the "take over if Boris was run over by a bus" candidate. Whilst Raab has the title DPM, that hasn't done what it says on the label since... Hezza and Major?

    If Rishi is still in the doghouse, and we needed a new PM on the quickfast, who would it be?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Twas a documentary about the Right to Repair, with special reference to faulty domestic white goods, and home visits.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited April 29
    Parish actually appeared on GB News just days ago to discuss this topic. Here’s what he said at the time.

    “I think the whips’ office will do a thorough investigation and we will wait and see that result… I think you’ve got some 650 Members of Parliament in what is a very intense area, you are going to get people that step over the line. I don’t think there’s necessarily a huge culture here, but I think it does have to be dealt with, and dealt with seriously. And that’s what the whips will do in our whips’ office.”

    https://order-order.com/2022/04/29/breaking-neil-parish-revealed-loses-whip-over-commons-porn-viewing/

    Maybe he likes the idea of be punished by whips?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Wallace, Truss or Javid now the likely successors if Boris goes not Sunak, even Patel now in the frame
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    edited April 29

    For a long time, Rishi was the "take over if Boris was run over by a bus" candidate. Whilst Raab has the title DPM, that hasn't done what it says on the label since... Hezza and Major?

    If Rishi is still in the doghouse, and we needed a new PM on the quickfast, who would it be?

    The obvious candidate in terms of experience and capability is Hunt, but he is a *tremble tremble* "Remainer" (screams of anguish). The only other serious contender is Gove, but he unlikely to improve fortunes any more than Bozo as he is competent, but about as appealing as a pile of puke that has been rejected by my dog.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,455

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    I think he’s been unfairly besmirched, as chair of Defra committee he saw he’d received an email with a link entitled “Animal Farm” and opened it assuming it was work related and then couldn’t stop it. It can happen to anyone…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Healthcare systems in other European countries don't exist, or so we're told. There are only two options - the sainted NHS, or the American system, and if you criticise the former in any way you must want the latter.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    HYUFD said:

    Wallace, Truss or Javid now the likely successors if Boris goes not Sunak, even Patel now in the frame

    Sajid “economical with truth about not paying tax whilst MP working in the treasury” Javid? That Javid?

    If Truss makes top two, it’s fizz time for sure. I know that, you know that, everyone knows that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yes, I know all that, but I was thinking specifically about the impact of the pandemic.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,604
    edited April 29
    HYUFD said:

    Wallace, Truss or Javid now the likely successors if Boris goes not Sunak, even Patel now in the frame

    What about Mordaunt?

    I think she could completely dominate all the others in a candidates debate - much more decisive with stronger communication skills and a sense of purpose / action.

    I think Truss in particular could be completely blown away by Mordaunt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    MikeL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wallace, Truss or Javid now the likely successors if Boris goes not Sunak, even Patel now in the frame

    What about Mordaunt?

    I think she could completely dominate all the others in a candidates debate - much more decisive with stronger communication skills and a sense of purpose / action.
    I am very wary of Johnson falling precisely because Patel might be in the frame. Can one imagine her as leader during the coming war?

    Shudders.

    Anyway, laters all - I'm off to sit in the sun with a beer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,616

    For a long time, Rishi was the "take over if Boris was run over by a bus" candidate. Whilst Raab has the title DPM, that hasn't done what it says on the label since... Hezza and Major?

    If Rishi is still in the doghouse, and we needed a new PM on the quickfast, who would it be?

    This is, of course, not by chance. It is a testament to the ruthlessness and cunning of the PM. Appoint nondescripts, and if any of them turn out to be, or at least appear to be, half way decent, attack them mercilessly.

    Great for backers of BJ exit date 24 or later, not so good for the rest of the country......
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Glad you did NOT lose your shirt at that riverboat casino!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,483

    For a long time, Rishi was the "take over if Boris was run over by a bus" candidate. Whilst Raab has the title DPM, that hasn't done what it says on the label since... Hezza and Major?

    If Rishi is still in the doghouse, and we needed a new PM on the quickfast, who would it be?

    The obvious candidate in terms of experience and capability is Hunt, but he is a *tremble tremble* "Remainer" (screams of anguish). The only other serious contender is Gove, but he unlikely to improve fortunes any more than Bozo as he is competent, but about as appealing as a pile of puke that has been rejected by my dog.
    Gove loses in 2024, because he manages the amazing feat of being more alien than Starmer. But he's also probably the least bad option for country running until then. He probably makes a fairly plausible Alec Douglas-Home.

    And as the other Big Figure of Vote Leave, he frankly deserves a try at running Brexit Britain.

    Let the reader understand.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yes, I know all that, but I was thinking specifically about the impact of the pandemic.
    I think it will continue to be a useful lame excuse. We can't give you an appointment for months because of the pandemic. It is like the old "health and safety" excuse. Private sector is having to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but of course, the saintly NHS can't cos, well *resources*!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483

    For a long time, Rishi was the "take over if Boris was run over by a bus" candidate. Whilst Raab has the title DPM, that hasn't done what it says on the label since... Hezza and Major?

    If Rishi is still in the doghouse, and we needed a new PM on the quickfast, who would it be?

    This is, of course, not by chance. It is a testament to the ruthlessness and cunning of the PM. Appoint nondescripts, and if any of them turn out to be, or at least appear to be, half way decent, attack them mercilessly.

    Great for backers of BJ exit date 24 or later, not so good for the rest of the country......
    Yep, the hallmark of the crap insecure leader, where the term "leader" is a misnomer.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    MikeL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wallace, Truss or Javid now the likely successors if Boris goes not Sunak, even Patel now in the frame

    What about Mordaunt?

    I think she could completely dominate all the others in a candidates debate - much more decisive with stronger communication skills and a sense of purpose / action.

    I think Truss in particular could be completely blown away by Mordaunt.
    Dominate might be a phrase that is filled with innuendo today!
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Including those whiny, pesky Ukraine "refugees"?
    No, I think most people accept they are victims of a genocide right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Well, net EU migration has gone to under 100k per year, so it's non-EU that's gone through the roof.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    . . . latest dispatch from the colonies . . . including one of the last proudly flying the Union Jack . . .

    Politico.com - British Virgin Islands officials arrested in Florida, charged in drug conspiracy
    Premier Alturo Fahie and Managing Director Oleanvine Maynard were arrested and charged with conspiracy to import cocaine and conspiracy to launder money, according to a criminal complaint.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/british-virgin-islands-officials-florida-drug-conspiracy-00028823

    MIAMI — The premier of the British Virgin Islands and the director of the Caribbean territory’s ports were arrested Thursday on drug smuggling charges in South Florida, federal officials said.

    Premier Alturo Fahie and Managing Director Oleanvine Maynard were arrested by U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents at Miami-Opa-locka Executive Airport and charged with conspiracy to import cocaine and conspiracy to launder money, according to a criminal complaint. Maynard’s son, Kadeem Maynard, faces the same changes in the scheme, according to the records.

    Fahie and Oleanvine Maynard had been at the airport to meet with Mexican drug traffickers, who in fact were undercover DEA agents, to see a shipment of $700,000 in cash that the the BVI officials expected to receive for helping smuggle cocaine from Colombia to Miami and New York, officials said in the complaint.

    A DEA confidential source had previously met with Maynard and her son after being introduced by a group of self-proclaimed Lebanese Hezbollah operatives, according to the complaint. After Fahie became involved, the BVI officials agreed to to let the smugglers bring the cocaine through the port at Tortola before continuing on to the U.S.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,492
    Late afternoon all :)

    Interesting early polling on the French legislative elections (first round on 12th June).

    Cluster 17 has the following:

    Ensemble Citoyens 24% (-8)
    Rassemblee Nationale: 21% (+8)
    La France Insoumise: 20% (+9)
    Europe Ecology: 7.5% (+3.5)
    Les Republicians: 7.5% (-14.5)

    Even so, some projections suggest the EC grouping (which includes LREM (Macron's Party)) will still be close to a majority in the second round and would have a majority in coalition with the centre-right LR.

    There' still manoeuvring around potential voting blocs - could La France Insoumise (Melenchon's Party) line up with the Greens and could Le Pen's RN align with Zemmour's Reconquete (currently polling 6%).

    In essence, it's a re-run of the Presidential contest with Macron (possibly with Pecresse), Le Pen (possibly with Zemmour), Melenchon (possibly with Jadot) forming three main voting blocs in the Legislative Assembly.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    Leon said:

    At a laundromat in Natchez, Mississippi. The kindness and friendliness of Southerners remains incredible

    Did you park outside?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,616
    edited April 29
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Well, net EU migration has gone to under 100k per year, so it's non-EU that's gone through the roof.
    Driven by demographics, not politicians. Changing politicians, or demanding they lie to us about future immigration numbers is pointless.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    I booked a telephone consultation with my Spanish NHS GP a few weeks ago on the app. I got a same day call 6 hours later that day. He was within the 2 hour window I booked. Very unusual ever to wait more than a day or 2. Of course doctors over here are paid quite a lot less than those in the UK.
  • *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yes, I know all that, but I was thinking specifically about the impact of the pandemic.
    I think it will continue to be a useful lame excuse. We can't give you an appointment for months because of the pandemic. It is like the old "health and safety" excuse. Private sector is having to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but of course, the saintly NHS can't cos, well *resources*!
    The NHS is the National Healthcare *Prevention* Service

    I have observed, many times, people of good will fighting the system and breaking the rules to deliver health care.

    The problem is a bad structure, badly managed. The answer is not to fire all the managers or centralise everything or attempt to remove any element of competition.

    On the subject of competition - I can hear the screams, but what is it when my wife says -"Take our daughter to hospital X, because of the shitty experience we have had at Y"?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    The Tory Party has sent out an email to members from Priti Patel declaring: "We are the party of law and order - we've proven that this week".
    Just days after an ex Tory MP quit over a sex offence conviction, and an hour after a Tory MP was suspended for watching porn at work https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1520069777213083649/photo/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,799

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    I can see Mordaunt as next Cons leader. Confident, true-blue, should appeal to a cross-section of Cons voters. She's 9.4 (bf) atm not the worst bet in the world.

    I don't think Truss has enough character for the gradual detox from Boris to someone normal and competent; Wallace, well we saw what happened last time the Cons chose someone from 1SG to be leader; Hunt a remainer so no; Tugendhat maybe funny foreign name.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Well, net EU migration has gone to under 100k per year, so it's non-EU that's gone through the roof.
    Driven by demographics, not politicians. Changing politicians, or demanding they lie to us about future immigration numbers is pointless.
    That isn't true at all. The surge in non-EU migration is because the government has dramatically scaled back what counts as "skilled workers". Under new rules, a shopkeeper or a social worker or a fencer earning 26k a year counts.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,863

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yes, I know all that, but I was thinking specifically about the impact of the pandemic.
    I think it will continue to be a useful lame excuse. We can't give you an appointment for months because of the pandemic. It is like the old "health and safety" excuse. Private sector is having to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but of course, the saintly NHS can't cos, well *resources*!
    Not to worry, Rishi and Boris will just put up another £20bn in tax to fund the money pit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    felix said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    I booked a telephone consultation with my Spanish NHS GP a few weeks ago on the app. I got a same day call 6 hours later that day. He was within the 2 hour window I booked. Very unusual ever to wait more than a day or 2. Of course doctors over here are paid quite a lot less than those in the UK.
    Part of the problem is that GPs get paid according to targets for certain things - such as vaccinations.

    Others things.... not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062

    *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    Welcome to 2015.....
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
    It's nowhere near intercourse
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,492
    My recollection of John Major prior to the 1990 leadership election was most people didn't know who he was (despite having been both Foreign Secretary and Chancellor) but between the endorsement of Margaret Thatcher and the publication of polling showing him doing as well against Kinnock as Heseltine he managed to win about half the Parliamentary party.

    Leadership elections when a party is in office aren't the same as those in opposition - you are choosing not just a leader but a Prime Minister so someone who will have to walk straight into the job on Day One with little or no preparation or planning and immediately choose a Cabinet balancing rewarding your allies and keeping your enemies closer.

    The pivotal argument remains the same - there's no point changing leader unless you have a successor who will be a clear improvement (primarily in terms of poll ratings). The evidence from earlier in the year was Sunak fitted that requirement and we may never know how close he came in January but, as Portillo, he lacked the killer instinct and ended up missing out. In lieu of any other polling (that may change after next Thursday), we've no one who floats the electorate's boat any better than the current Prime Minister.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,616
    Aslan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Well, net EU migration has gone to under 100k per year, so it's non-EU that's gone through the roof.
    Driven by demographics, not politicians. Changing politicians, or demanding they lie to us about future immigration numbers is pointless.
    That isn't true at all. The surge in non-EU migration is because the government has dramatically scaled back what counts as "skilled workers". Under new rules, a shopkeeper or a social worker or a fencer earning 26k a year counts.
    For the last 20 years politicians have promised lower immigration but done nothing to stop it. Plenty to publicise and pretend they are doing something but nothing to stop it. The same will be true for the next 20 years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    Next scandal in football....

    Socios expects to make £150 from each fan who buys a token

    https://theathletic.com/3140771/2022/04/29/special-report-socios-expects-to-make-150-from-each-fan-who-buys-a-token/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,731

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    By contrast, filled an e-consult in on Tuesday morning, was phoned that evening around 6 pm and invited to be seen by the Dr at 7.30pm. Was a little late, but home by 8, suitably re-assured.

    Clearly things are patchy, and mine was probably a more urgent request.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,799

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yes, I know all that, but I was thinking specifically about the impact of the pandemic.
    I think it will continue to be a useful lame excuse. We can't give you an appointment for months because of the pandemic. It is like the old "health and safety" excuse. Private sector is having to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but of course, the saintly NHS can't cos, well *resources*!
    The NHS is the National Healthcare *Prevention* Service

    I have observed, many times, people of good will fighting the system and breaking the rules to deliver health care.

    The problem is a bad structure, badly managed. The answer is not to fire all the managers or centralise everything or attempt to remove any element of competition.

    On the subject of competition - I can hear the screams, but what is it when my wife says -"Take our daughter to hospital X, because of the shitty experience we have had at Y"?
    "...let the poor people go to Y".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,750

    O/t Mr Jessop;
    No, missed your pic. If past experience is any guide we are due a couple more eggs and then Mrs B-t will settle in to incubate, probably on Sunday or Monday.

    The little 'un is really excited by this. If anyone reading has a child, a birdbox camera appears to be a superb way of getting them interested in nature.

    Here you go then:
    https://i.imgur.com/ek23veF.jpg
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,483
    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    If the aim is cost control, an NHS model (GPs as gatekeepers, no need for marketing spend, probably less admin staff than is optimal, guilt-tripping to keep costs down) is pretty effective.

    If you want better health outcomes, there are other models with more promise, but they come at a cost.

    And one of the lessons of Spring 2020 is that boring, unglamourous public health stuff is actually pretty important. Wash your hands, eat your greens, do more exercise. And whilst that stuff shouldn't have to cost, the reality is that getting people to do it does, and public health has been ignored for ages.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
    It's nowhere near intercourse
    Or near Blue Ball, also in Pennsylvania.

    Or near Big Bone Lick, Kentucky. Or Climax, Georgia
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yes, I know all that, but I was thinking specifically about the impact of the pandemic.
    I think it will continue to be a useful lame excuse. We can't give you an appointment for months because of the pandemic. It is like the old "health and safety" excuse. Private sector is having to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but of course, the saintly NHS can't cos, well *resources*!
    The NHS is the National Healthcare *Prevention* Service

    I have observed, many times, people of good will fighting the system and breaking the rules to deliver health care.

    The problem is a bad structure, badly managed. The answer is not to fire all the managers or centralise everything or attempt to remove any element of competition.

    On the subject of competition - I can hear the screams, but what is it when my wife says -"Take our daughter to hospital X, because of the shitty experience we have had at Y"?
    "...let the poor people go to Y".
    Well, in our case, the shitty hospital is actually harder to get to by public transport. Both are NHS hospitals. Why can't the poor people choose as well?

    Of course, some people believe that poor people need to have choices made for them, the poor dears.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,000
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    edited April 29

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    If the aim is cost control, an NHS model (GPs as gatekeepers, no need for marketing spend, probably less admin staff than is optimal, guilt-tripping to keep costs down) is pretty effective.

    If you want better health outcomes, there are other models with more promise, but they come at a cost.

    And one of the lessons of Spring 2020 is that boring, unglamourous public health stuff is actually pretty important. Wash your hands, eat your greens, do more exercise. And whilst that stuff shouldn't have to cost, the reality is that getting people to do it does, and public health has been ignored for ages.
    I do not know if the issues with the NHS are down to money as I haven't looked at the comparable spend. But I do know that over many years the British public has shown itself unwilling to pay more for its public healthcare system.

    That said I am not at all convinced that the NHS is the best model out there. There is no real incentive to prevent bad practice or worse. Aside from as a result of campaigns by hugely brave and dedicated individuals, no one gets sued or hauled up because someone died or many people died or receive sub-optimal care.

    We have seen time and again NHS Trusts wave away any criticism which most people accept and don't complain further.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,691
    BTW just catching up and on previous thread there was mention of Turkey Dinosaur edibles. Turkeys and all birds are now regarded as dinosaurs according to modern biological classification. What we used to mean by dinosaur is strictly described as non-avian dinosaur.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523

    *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    Welcome to 2015.....
    Yes, dual monitors have been replaced by ultrawides which are the equivalent of three monitors side-by-side.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
    It's nowhere near intercourse
    Or near Blue Ball, also in Pennsylvania.

    Or near Big Bone Lick, Kentucky. Or Climax, Georgia
    The best way from Blue Ball to Paradise is through Intercourse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    🚨 Neil Parish says he WON'T be resigning as an MP https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-neil-parish-tory-mp-26834303?111
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited April 29

    *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    Welcome to 2015.....
    Yes, dual monitors have been replaced by ultrawides which are the equivalent of three monitors side-by-side.
    I have used ultrawides for past 5-6 years, so much better than dual / triple monitor setup.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,637

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    I think less as well, sadly the wrong part of the cycle for significant gains I think. This depends on the Tories losing 800, yet they only have 1200 or so up for grabs in England anyway, so highly unlikely. I suspect the Libdems and Greens between them will gain more than Labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,000
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – England #LocalElections2022 Voting Intention:

    LAB 47%
    CON 34%
    LD 10%
    GRN 4%
    IND/OTH 6%

    https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-lead-over-conservatives/

    13% lead compared to 9% in 2018

    That would equate to a 2% Con to Lab swing.

    SKS lost 332 Councilors in 2021 and 8 Councils compared to 2017
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529

    O/t Mr Jessop;
    No, missed your pic. If past experience is any guide we are due a couple more eggs and then Mrs B-t will settle in to incubate, probably on Sunday or Monday.

    The little 'un is really excited by this. If anyone reading has a child, a birdbox camera appears to be a superb way of getting them interested in nature.

    Here you go then:
    https://i.imgur.com/ek23veF.jpg
    Excellent picture; much better than we can get, but our kit is around 8 years old and the technology has improved. Just wait until you can see the chicks squabbling for food!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523
    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    Was it the Civitas report just published? It shows the NHS does badly on most outcomes except for diabetes — huzzah for @Foxy — but if you read a couple of dozen pages past the headlines and into the report, there is a handy table showing Britain's per capita health spend is, erm, 14th. If we want French or German healthcare, we shall need to write some big cheques).
    https://civitas.org.uk/publications/international-health-care-outcomes-index-2022/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    Was it the Civitas report just published? It shows the NHS does badly on most outcomes except for diabetes — huzzah for @Foxy — but if you read a couple of dozen pages past the headlines and into the report, there is a handy table showing Britain's per capita health spend is, erm, 14th. If we want French or German healthcare, we shall need to write some big cheques).
    https://civitas.org.uk/publications/international-health-care-outcomes-index-2022/
    Perhaps. As I said at the moment there is no coordination between different parts of the health service and no real incentive (aside from wanting to keep people alive/well) not to perform badly, as you say in almost every area.

    Is it about spending? Not sure - my impression is that it is the culture. Of resentment by the NHS workers at "the bosses/govt/the man". Would they do a better job if they were paid more? As I said, perhaps.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic...

    Next available appointment for a telephone consultation with a GP: 27 days' time. Let's hope I'm able to get to the phone!

    Good old NHS, it is the envy of the world you know? Certainly the envy of considerably lesser paid primary care doctors in the rest of the world.
    Actually that raises an interesting point. We get zillions of articles and broadcasts about how bad things currently are in the NHS, but I don't recall a single one which puts that into the context of how healthcare systems in other European countries, which must be faced with similar challenges, are doing. Are they doing better than us? Who knows?
    Answer, yes. For years the disparity was put down to lack of comparable funding. New Labour decided to destructively test this by hosing money at the NHS, and yes there were significant improvements, but huge amounts of cash was absorbed by eye watering pay increases for medical staff (the lower downs were less benefitted). Our primary care system was not rationalised so we are left with a system that duplicated services unnecessarily. It needs massive reform but this will always be blocked by the most powerful union in the world, the BMA. The only form of true deference in this country is to doctors. If you don't believe me, watch the free ride that BMA reps are given by TV journalists.
    Yet thanks to the NHS the UK still gets its healthcare on the cheap and was still getting reasonable outcomes until the pandemic struck. This is the latest (dated 2019) that I could find from the ONS:

    "In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person). However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)."


    Bollocks. What is the survey that @Richard_Tyndall links to showing that the NHS is internationally better than everyone else apart from, er, health outcomes and mortality.
    If the aim is cost control, an NHS model (GPs as gatekeepers, no need for marketing spend, probably less admin staff than is optimal, guilt-tripping to keep costs down) is pretty effective.

    If you want better health outcomes, there are other models with more promise, but they come at a cost.

    And one of the lessons of Spring 2020 is that boring, unglamourous public health stuff is actually pretty important. Wash your hands, eat your greens, do more exercise. And whilst that stuff shouldn't have to cost, the reality is that getting people to do it does, and public health has been ignored for ages.
    One of the key take home messages from MD's coverage of the pandemic in the Eye - and not just for covid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    edited April 29
    It's a fall with no prospect of recovery. MPs and public will now think of Sunak as a has been, and his ambitions are up in smoke.

    He'll probably quit parliament at the next election if it looks like Labour might win - no way a super rich high flyer who got into the Cabinet in his 30s would stick it out in opposition.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    Via @Survation,
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

    Good Poll for Labour. On those numbers they should easily Gain 800 Councillors next week.

    I forecast less than 300 gains.
    I don't think that's true, because the Conservatives don't have that many to lose: don't forget they only won 1,332 last time. You would seem to suggest that a "par" performance for Labour is for them to wipe out 70% of remaining Conservative councillors.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    edited April 29

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
    It's nowhere near intercourse
    Or near Blue Ball, also in Pennsylvania.

    Or near Big Bone Lick, Kentucky. Or Climax, Georgia
    BBL is actually an old fossil mammal site known to the First Nations, while we are in a vertebrate evolution mood on PB today with turkeys and theropods etc. Large mammals such as mastodons trapped in the swamp around a salt spring which they came to lick. Hence the name. But it is nicely ambiguous ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088

    *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    Welcome to 2015.....
    Yes, dual monitors have been replaced by ultrawides which are the equivalent of three monitors side-by-side.
    What an age we live in.

    Can't say I'd need something quite that wide though! Something large enough to act as if two gets the job done. I was also worried it would be inconvenient for gaming to go larger.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited April 29
    kle4 said:

    *entirely predicted and obvious fall of Rishi Sunak.

    The man has no political ability at all. This was clear from Eat Out to Fail Out.

    Just setup dual monitors, so now running with triple monitors with my MacBook Pro display running as well. What a revolution!

    Welcome to 2015.....
    Yes, dual monitors have been replaced by ultrawides which are the equivalent of three monitors side-by-side.
    What an age we live in.

    Can't say I'd need something quite that wide though! Something large enough to act as if two gets the job done. I was also worried it would be inconvenient for gaming to go larger.
    34" Ultrawide( 144hz, 3440 x 1440) is perfect for that.

    The Samsung 49" Odyssey is just ridiculous.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Map showing French 2022 2nd round Presidential election results for Citizens Overseas.

    https://i.redd.it/jx39k9rev7w81.jpg

    Note that only country where French voters (narrowly) supported Le Pen over Macron was . . . wait for it . . . Russia.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    Applicant said:

    We need a thread on the pervert member for Tiverton and Horneytown.

    #CourtOfPublicOpinion

    Horneytown, North Carolina says "hey!" And also "oooooooooooooooh"!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horneytown,_North_Carolina

    Next time you invade the States you can also visit . . . wait for it . . . Wanker's Corner, Oregon
    https://wankerscorner.com/
    Come again??
    It's nowhere near intercourse
    Or near Blue Ball, also in Pennsylvania.

    Or near Big Bone Lick, Kentucky. Or Climax, Georgia
    The best way from Blue Ball to Paradise is through Intercourse.
    Go in at Bushy, pass Virginia Water, on through Maidenhead, and leave Staines behind.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    I think anyone who replaces Sunak as the heir apparent will need to be a Leaver or otherwise show they are reliable on limiting immigration.

    Well, net EU migration has gone to under 100k per year, so it's non-EU that's gone through the roof.
    Driven by demographics, not politicians. Changing politicians, or demanding they lie to us about future immigration numbers is pointless.
    That isn't true at all. The surge in non-EU migration is because the government has dramatically scaled back what counts as "skilled workers". Under new rules, a shopkeeper or a social worker or a fencer earning 26k a year counts.
    For the last 20 years politicians have promised lower immigration but done nothing to stop it. Plenty to publicise and pretend they are doing something but nothing to stop it. The same will be true for the next 20 years.
    I think that is also not true. There has been genuine movement. Blair did limit asylum seekers back in the early 2000s. Cameron and May limited unskilled non-EU low skill worker and arranged marriage migration. Johnson has limited EU low skill immigration. But the immigration lobby always manages to get small changes in rules so there needs to be constant vigilance.

    We now have a good structure in place but we need to tighten up the thresholds. The minimum salary for skilled workers to be around the UK average full time salary of 35k. The minimum income requirement for spouse visas needs to be at a place where people will not be a net cost to the Treasury. That means a lifetime average earning of about 32k a year. You could maybe discount that by 25% given most people get married in their late 20s and will have wage growth. We should also limit the marriage visa so that it needs a genuine two year relationship, like the unmarried partner visa does.
This discussion has been closed.