Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
So long as the SNP dominate Scotland, a Labour majority is extremely difficult. I'd be very happy to sell that at 1-5.
Agreed and I think that's the right way of putting it. It's extremely difficult but not impossible.
As a matter of interest, Labour are picking up in Scotland. They are currently polling around 10% higher than how they performed at the 2019 GE and at current voting intention levels that would equate to taking around 9 seats off the SNP. Something to keep an eye on. https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/
My view on this at the moment is that NoM should be the standout favourite. The chances of a Conservative majority under BJ are going down the plughole but I also don't rule out the extreme version: the UK equivalent of a Canada wipeout. I think this is now getting to be worse than 1992-7. We have a constellation of circumstances that only seem to be increasing. They might fare disastrously at the General Election if Johnson is still in charge.
Depends on many factors. Eg, If the war with Russia metastasises, Johnson stands a decent chance of getting re-elected, imo.
I recon that’s a ~30% chance.
It really is that serious.
I'm not that convinced that military victories lead to electoral ones.
Exhibits: George Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Churchill, Lloyd George
Indeed and nor does foreign policy.
When it comes to voting in a General Election no one pays any attention to the wider world. Ping and others may lament that, and wish it were not so, but it's the case.
Incidentally, I've treated the ill-Putin meme with a bit of disinterest until this morning. He REALLY does look very unwell to me. Most peculiar puffiness in the face.
Serval doctors I know have commented on the fact that he looks like he has medical issues. Puffy face from steroids seems to be a theme in these comments.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
WWF? They are that serious about fundraising for pandas?
Morning all, may have been commented on earlier but the NY Court of Appeals (the highest court) has overturned the Democrats’ redistricting plans in NY and gave it to a neutral expert to draw up. Fairly big blow for the Democrats for the House - the original plans would have seen the likely GOP seats go from 8 to 4.
Good to hear that courts are striking down some of the more egregious examples of Gerrymandering. Allowing politicians to micromanage the process of elections and districts is the cause of so many problems in the US, and they’re all doing it.
British arguments about postal votes and ID requirements, are really rather quaint in comparison.
Problem is Democratic states judges tend to be fairer on these rulings than in Red States with GOP appointees so effectively it’s not a level playing field .
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
This is true and we also know NATO has "wargames" various scenarios - all the way to the worst one - and is very well advised on intelligence as well so one hopes there is some good analysis and thinking behind it.
Maybe there's a lot of public bluster by Russia (possibly to spook Western public opinion so they put pressure on their politicians) but their real position is much more complex behind the scenes.
One wonders if the wise words of Sir Richard Mottram, former permanent secretary at the Department for the Environment, 2002 are being heard - sotto voce - in the corridors of the Kremlin:
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. ... We're all completely fucked" .
The risk of the conflict expanding to nuclear war between NATO and Russia seems to be going up as the renewed Russian offensive makes only marginal gains, while the Ukranian army equips and trains for a counter-offensive on exhausted and depleted Russian forces. Both sides are taking heavy casualties, but for Ukraine this is existential war, not a Special Operation.
The risk of going nuclear is when it becomes existential for the Putin regime, and that may well happen this year. I am not sure what we can do much to stop it. Putin has not behaved rationally throughout.
I think we just have to hope that he's only psychopathic and not completely suicidal.
And that he is not a disciple of the moral approach of the recently cancelled David Hume, luminary of the Scottish enlightenment:
"It is not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger." (Treatise of Human Nature)
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
I think it may well have something to do with what Bin Laden called the theory of The Strong Horse. People like The Strong Horse.
Putin is looking like a very weak horse these days.
Whilst an overall Labour majority is a huge challenge and Mike is right to say that punters are over-estimating the chances, this is not the same as saying it cannot, or won't happen. Nor is a hung parliament Keir Starmer's 'best hope.'
I've seen sea changes happen, and we are experiencing one. I rule out nothing right now, including a Conservative wipeout.
To get a majority I think Labour would have to get up to 15-20 seats in Scotland. I would struggle to see more than 5-10 tops at the next GE TBH.
I would say 10% chance of a Labour OM rather than 20%.
~30% chance of a Con OM seems about right.
My view is that when Scotland flips it will flip (sorry to be tautological about it).
If Scots sense a chance to eject the Westminster government and replace it with a Labour government with good SLAB representation then I think they'll take it - and we will see c.20 seats go.
Those will be centre/centre-left Unionists, sure, and also include some who vote SNP in Holyrood - because Nicola - but are desperate to see the back of the Tories in Westminster.
I don't think that Scotland will flip next GE. I think the only thing that would flip Scotland back to SLAB would be the SNP losing a further indy ref by a larger margin than last time.
I think "flip" is completely overstating it but I will be surprised if Labour does not take up to a dozen seats off the SNP in the same way as the Tories did in 2017. It is possible that the SNP might be compensated by recovering more seats from the Tories but they are not quite as dominant as they were.
Indeed. While I also doubt a flip (unless a gain of 10-15 seats counts and perhaps a lot of that coming from Tory switchers?), the SNP are weak on domestic issues, particularly education and local Government. Throw in ferries, general Government incompetence and this kerfuffle over Indy legal advice (where the ScotGov seem to be operating under the misapprehension that such advice was given to a private client) and you have the conditions for a big political backlash. The missing ingredient is the scandal that catalyses the whole thing into a coherent narrative and dumps it at the feet of the SNP.
My own view is that the people of Scotland are not daft, and for a sizeable chunk of the electorate the Union/Independence is transactional. If people feel they are better served outside the UK, then they will vote for independence. If they think independence will make them poorer, then they won't vote for it. This makes the SNP vote soft at the margins, which means that a decent opposition could do pretty well, especially if they can target the SNP's weaknesses.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Who do you think is firing these weapons? Anyway, if you are right, send an urgent email to Ben Wallace telling him to ditch his rumoured U-turn over said army cuts.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
WWF? They are that serious about fundraising for pandas?
Most savage bunch outside the Fundamentalist Unitarians.
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
That rather depends who they are selling them to. Turkey and Russia have had arms talks in the last 24 hours.
If the Government fiddles with the NI Protocol and a trade war ensues then any rises in living costs will be much harder to paint as being down to Ukraine being invaded (which is legitimate) and much easier to paint as being an unnecessary choice by the Government.
Do they really want to take 'credit' for rising living costs? For the sake of a few headlines about 'standing up' to the EU over a deal that the incumbent PM signed up to?
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
I think it may well have something to do with what Bin Laden called the theory of The Strong Horse. People like The Strong Horse.
Putin is looking like a very weak horse these days.
And China will still have significant influence. If Russia want to rebuild their capability once they declare victory and give up, they will need China as an economic and military partner (in the face of continuing sanctions and structural changes from the West).
Assuming there still is a world by the time of the next election (see above passim) it seems to me that the current betting figures are just wrong. Not only is Lab majority bigly overdone - it's between 5 and 10%, but Tory majority is about as likely as NOM.
The current probabilities fail to take account of the prospects and risks in the future, which are as great for Labour as they are for the Tories, and are over reliant on current sentiment.
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Perfect time for a trade war between allies. What more could Putin ask for?
Tories and DUP are wetting their knickers because SF are going to win and have the Leadership in Stormont.
There were a couple of questions about this at PMQs yesterday and Boris was keen to emphasise that the NI protocol was not only causing problems for NI economically but politically, specifically it is undermining the Unionist parties that initially backed it. Boris claimed that the protocol was undermining the Good Friday Agreement. He wants to do something about this and soon but keeping a united front on Ukraine is obviously the priority at the moment.
It's a tricky one for him. It's possible that a re-elected Macron may be more amenable to some sort of a deal but I wouldn't count on it.
Boris Johnson is going to demonstrate his commitment to democracy and the rule of law by overriding the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland, who will be giving their backing to pro-Protocol parties next week, and in doing so breaking international treaty obligations freely entered into by the UK government. Vladimir Putin says thanks!
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
The policing bill targets Steve Bray, the demonstrator outside Parliament. The judicial review bill is the result of outrage over the Supreme Court decision against Johnson. The elections bill targets the Electoral Commission after it found Vote Leave overspent in the referendum. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1519582618739748864
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
I think it may well have something to do with what Bin Laden called the theory of The Strong Horse. People like The Strong Horse.
Putin is looking like a very weak horse these days.
And China will still have significant influence. If Russia want to rebuild their capability once they declare victory and give up, they will need China as an economic and military partner (in the face of continuing sanctions and structural changes from the West).
China backing Russia is looking less and less likely.
At least before Xi, Chinese foreign policy was about trying to avoid "adventurism". Putin's holiday in Ukraine has turned from a quick reclaim-a-breakaway-state-that-should-be-part-of-the-motherland (looking at you, Taiwan), into a mess.
Buying Russian weapons looks particularly stupid, at the moment.
My guess is that the Chinese government will looks for some cheap commodities from Russia and give very little in return.
The policing bill targets Steve Bray, the demonstrator outside Parliament. The judicial review bill is the result of outrage over the Supreme Court decision against Johnson. The elections bill targets the Electoral Commission after it found Vote Leave overspent in the referendum. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1519582618739748864
Good morning! Keeping well here thanks, looking forward to the Eid holiday next week, although we are going to get some rare late spring rain in the next couple of days.
Thankfully the Ukraine situation appears better from a personal point of view, with the fighting now mostly confined to the south and east regions away from friends and family. We all need to not lose focus though, and keep the military aid flowing.
Assuming there still is a world by the time of the next election (see above passim) it seems to me that the current betting figures are just wrong. Not only is Lab majority bigly overdone - it's between 5 and 10%, but Tory majority is about as likely as NOM.
The current probabilities fail to take account of the prospects and risks in the future, which are as great for Labour as they are for the Tories, and are over reliant on current sentiment.
Agreed. For me the probabilities are in order of likelihood Tory majority Labour Majority NoM
Any Tory majority is likely to be much reduced but they have quite a long way to fall.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I have some sympathy with David’s position on this although for slightly different reasons.
NATO countries can and should continue arming Ukraine to the teeth but I don’t see what benefit it serves to keep banging on about it. The PR impact is probably negative.
Surely what the world needs if we’re to succeed in exposing Russia for the paper tiger it has become is for plucky underdog Ukraine to defend its territory bravely and send overrated Russia packing. Keep up the perception of David and Goliath that has served Zelenskyy well. Speak softly but carry a big stick.
That way those countries who are anti imperialist and sceptical of the West stay onside. Russia gets the humiliation it deserves. It remains very clear who the bad guys are. It undermines domestic confidence in Putin.
Instead all this crowing from the likes of Truss and Johnson helps Russia to frame it as a fight between Russia and NATO - peers. Russia even gets to play the underdog. The global South looks on and conclude they’re all as bad as each other, this is an imperial proxy war etc etc.
Let the Ukrainians take the credit while quietly tooling them up. Much better PR.
The policing bill targets Steve Bray, the demonstrator outside Parliament. The judicial review bill is the result of outrage over the Supreme Court decision against Johnson. The elections bill targets the Electoral Commission after it found Vote Leave overspent in the referendum. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1519582618739748864
Ian Dunt ... such as objective reporter.
(Morning all)
The judicial review bit is right though. There was immediate reaction against the decision, even talk from some about appointing judges instead, and they rushed in a commitment to rebalance things in their favour. There are people trying politics through legal challenge, but the government clearly dont want any challenge if they can help it.
The Governor has said something along the lines that it all looks a difficult decision at moment as there are signs of a coming recession so raising rates to deal with a supply side inflation problem might be a mistake. If I have understood things he is a bit out on a limb over this compared to US, where the Fed are saying rates almost definitely going up.
There are analysts who say the inflation is a product of the stupendous money growth that happened during pandemic which has now rapidly declined so the worry is recession not inflation.
Glad I'm not deciding to be honest, as I have posted on here before that the BoE were way behind the curve on rates rising, but heck what do I know.
There’s lots of very wierd things happing inside Twitter this week. Lots of reports of huge changes in follower counts, in a way that doesn’t seem particularly organic. Many American Conservative commentators and politicians in particular, have seen tens of thousands of new followers.
There’s lots of suggestions and conspiracy theories going round as to why, the most likely of which is probably a lot of unbanning of accounts, the more outlandish refer to a wholesale deletion of ‘evidence’ of political bias before the new management arrives.
Assuming there still is a world by the time of the next election (see above passim) it seems to me that the current betting figures are just wrong. Not only is Lab majority bigly overdone - it's between 5 and 10%, but Tory majority is about as likely as NOM.
The current probabilities fail to take account of the prospects and risks in the future, which are as great for Labour as they are for the Tories, and are over reliant on current sentiment.
Yup. Con majority starting to look very good value.
- there won't be a general election until May 2024
- if Boris has trashed his own brand, he will be moved on before he can trash the party brand. That is nowhere near happening yet, certainly not beyond the mid-term blues that gave Ed Miliband a 20% lead. Remember Prime Minister Ed Mliband? No, me neither.
- Tories start with a big seat haul. They never had the cities, and votes can pile up there to no material effect. Meanwhile, Labour are not making anything like the gains they need in the Midlands, trending ever more blue.
- The other parties have to offer something else - no evidence of that yet
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I have some sympathy with David’s position on this although for slightly different reasons.
NATO countries can and should continue arming Ukraine to the teeth but I don’t see what benefit it serves to keep banging on about it. The PR impact is probably negative.
Surely what the world needs if we’re to succeed in exposing Russia for the paper tiger it has become is for plucky underdog Ukraine to defend its territory bravely and send overrated Russia packing. Keep up the perception of David and Goliath that has served Zelenskyy well. Speak softly but carry a big stick.
That way those countries who are anti imperialist and sceptical of the West stay onside. Russia gets the humiliation it deserves. It remains very clear who the bad guys are. It undermines domestic confidence in Putin.
Instead all this crowing from the likes of Truss and Johnson helps Russia to frame it as a fight between Russia and NATO - peers. Russia even gets to play the underdog. The global South looks on and conclude they’re all as bad as each other, this is an imperial proxy war etc etc.
Let the Ukrainians take the credit while quietly tooling them up. Much better PR.
I think this would make sense, were it not that the Global South/sceptical of the West crowd were largely on the side of Russia in this from the start, or at least very unconcerned about the whole thing.
Russia has framed it as a fight against NATO expansion from the start, among other stupid reasons, and most of the world seems happy to buy it, at least insomuch as not wishing to get involved in any way. So I dont think overdone commentary from Truss and co will make a difference.
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
Cookie - did you really think we would never do gigs, parties, live sport etc again? I assumed most people would catch covid and recover and have immunity. So a pattern similar to spanish flu, or even horrifically hte Black Death. I did have more faith that one infection would confer immunity for a fair while though and that the vaccines would be better at preventing spread. Covids current rate of evolution is huge, but it will be limited to some extent by the available workable mutations. You cannot infinitely change the spike protein and have it retain its function, for instance. Its also interesting that omicron is much more an upper respiratory tract disease than previous variants. Much more cold like (not saying its just a cold).
It looks like cases in the UK are crashing now (caveat - fewer tests going on) as the wave recedes and summer returns. Biggest questions will be do we all need boosters in the autumn and against what? A specific omicron or a broader spectrum, or even just original covid?
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
I think it may well have something to do with what Bin Laden called the theory of The Strong Horse. People like The Strong Horse.
Putin is looking like a very weak horse these days.
And China will still have significant influence. If Russia want to rebuild their capability once they declare victory and give up, they will need China as an economic and military partner (in the face of continuing sanctions and structural changes from the West).
China backing Russia is looking less and less likely.
At least before Xi, Chinese foreign policy was about trying to avoid "adventurism". Putin's holiday in Ukraine has turned from a quick reclaim-a-breakaway-state-that-should-be-part-of-the-motherland (looking at you, Taiwan), into a mess.
Buying Russian weapons looks particularly stupid, at the moment.
My guess is that the Chinese government will looks for some cheap commodities from Russia and give very little in return.
Xi has got enough problems of his own with covid. I imagine there are a fair few in the party now unhappy about the Putin bromance and hopefully there is some pressure on Xi to distance himself.
Perfect time for a trade war between allies. What more could Putin ask for?
Tories and DUP are wetting their knickers because SF are going to win and have the Leadership in Stormont.
There were a couple of questions about this at PMQs yesterday and Boris was keen to emphasise that the NI protocol was not only causing problems for NI economically but politically, specifically it is undermining the Unionist parties that initially backed it. Boris claimed that the protocol was undermining the Good Friday Agreement. He wants to do something about this and soon but keeping a united front on Ukraine is obviously the priority at the moment.
It's a tricky one for him. It's possible that a re-elected Macron may be more amenable to some sort of a deal but I wouldn't count on it.
Boris Johnson is going to demonstrate his commitment to democracy and the rule of law by overriding the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland, who will be giving their backing to pro-Protocol parties next week, and in doing so breaking international treaty obligations freely entered into by the UK government. Vladimir Putin says thanks!
Invoking Article 16 doesn't break any obligations.
It's literally a part of the Treaty itself, how could it? 🤦♂️
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
It's also worked "well" because the weapons are being expended at a profligate rate. The Ukrainians have used tens of thousands of (free) ATGMs to kill 500+ Russian tanks.
Is it Ed Balls day already? We need some sort of mythology about it like St. Swithuns Day. If Labour are three points ahead in the polls on Ed Balls Day they will gain Morley and Outwood. Or something.
The policing bill targets Steve Bray, the demonstrator outside Parliament. The judicial review bill is the result of outrage over the Supreme Court decision against Johnson. The elections bill targets the Electoral Commission after it found Vote Leave overspent in the referendum. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1519582618739748864
I seem to recall a former government introducing laws to target a specific protester outside parliament, something to do with the Iraq war?
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
That rather depends who they are selling them to. Turkey and Russia have had arms talks in the last 24 hours.
Oh, that’s not good. Let’s do a deal to buy up all the hardware the Turkish can make, so long as they don’t deal with the Russians.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
No it isn't, plus we aren't on our own we have allies.
It's not futuristic to think that technology matters. It isn't about machines, superior technology has swung warfare for centuries already if not millennia.
Dick swinging numbers ranking nations as having X amount of troops, Y amount of ships and Z amount of tanks doesn't matter if the Z tanks are poorly maintained and the troops are poorly equipped and trained.
Hypothetically speaking would you rather 60,000 elite extremely well trained and equipped troops with top notch equipment, ammunitions, logistical support etc ... Or 200,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped troops ready to be thrown to the meat grinder without the armour or support they require to operate properly?
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
Cookie - did you really think we would never do gigs, parties, live sport etc again? I assumed most people would catch covid and recover and have immunity. So a pattern similar to spanish flu, or even horrifically hte Black Death. I did have more faith that one infection would confer immunity for a fair while though and that the vaccines would be better at preventing spread. Covids current rate of evolution is huge, but it will be limited to some extent by the available workable mutations. You cannot infinitely change the spike protein and have it retain its function, for instance. Its also interesting that omicron is much more an upper respiratory tract disease than previous variants. Much more cold like (not saying its just a cold).
It looks like cases in the UK are crashing now (caveat - fewer tests going on) as the wave recedes and summer returns. Biggest questions will be do we all need boosters in the autumn and against what? A specific omicron or a broader spectrum, or even just original covid?
In hospital and admissions are heading down, quite quickly.
In a tight fight between the LD and Tories another candidate who is not a member of the Green party had their description of 'Independent Green' rejected. They are now standing as an Independent. Who is their proposer? The Tory Candidate!
I mean if you are going to try and split the LD vote, don't use your candidate to propose a competitive candidate. It is idiotic and guess what the LDs will expose you to the electorate as being devious.
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
That looks like quite a significant move.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
That’s good news, well done China.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
I think it may well have something to do with what Bin Laden called the theory of The Strong Horse. People like The Strong Horse.
Putin is looking like a very weak horse these days.
And China will still have significant influence. If Russia want to rebuild their capability once they declare victory and give up, they will need China as an economic and military partner (in the face of continuing sanctions and structural changes from the West).
China backing Russia is looking less and less likely.
At least before Xi, Chinese foreign policy was about trying to avoid "adventurism". Putin's holiday in Ukraine has turned from a quick reclaim-a-breakaway-state-that-should-be-part-of-the-motherland (looking at you, Taiwan), into a mess.
Buying Russian weapons looks particularly stupid, at the moment.
My guess is that the Chinese government will looks for some cheap commodities from Russia and give very little in return.
Xi has got enough problems of his own with covid. I imagine there are a fair few in the party now unhappy about the Putin bromance and hopefully there is some pressure on Xi to distance himself.
Add to that, China is still suffering badly from Covid as most of the world gets back to normal, and the pandemic has refocused many Western companies away from outsourcing their manufacturing to places like China.
Xi really doesn’t want to be also pissing off most of the world, by overtly supporting Russia against Ukraine. They sure as hell won’t wanting to be buying Russian military equipment, which has been shown to fall short against a well-armed enemy.
He's back with a spring in his step, according to the Guardian he has come up with an ingenious plan. Windfall tax the excess oil and gas company profits.
Perfect time for a trade war between allies. What more could Putin ask for?
Tories and DUP are wetting their knickers because SF are going to win and have the Leadership in Stormont.
There were a couple of questions about this at PMQs yesterday and Boris was keen to emphasise that the NI protocol was not only causing problems for NI economically but politically, specifically it is undermining the Unionist parties that initially backed it. Boris claimed that the protocol was undermining the Good Friday Agreement. He wants to do something about this and soon but keeping a united front on Ukraine is obviously the priority at the moment.
It's a tricky one for him. It's possible that a re-elected Macron may be more amenable to some sort of a deal but I wouldn't count on it.
Boris Johnson is going to demonstrate his commitment to democracy and the rule of law by overriding the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland, who will be giving their backing to pro-Protocol parties next week, and in doing so breaking international treaty obligations freely entered into by the UK government. Vladimir Putin says thanks!
Invoking Article 16 doesn't break any obligations.
It's literally a part of the Treaty itself, how could it? 🤦♂️
The point is that triggering Article 16 should only be used if they are addressing unforeseen issues when the NI protocol was signed .
The agreement clearly laid out what was likely to happen and therefore those aren’t unforeseen issues . Just because the clown doesn’t now like what he signed up to does not give the UK government license to trigger Article 16 .
The list of desperate excuses peddled by Frost is pathetic . Amongst them now saying that the UK signed the deal under duress.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I have some sympathy with David’s position on this although for slightly different reasons.
NATO countries can and should continue arming Ukraine to the teeth but I don’t see what benefit it serves to keep banging on about it. The PR impact is probably negative.
Surely what the world needs if we’re to succeed in exposing Russia for the paper tiger it has become is for plucky underdog Ukraine to defend its territory bravely and send overrated Russia packing. Keep up the perception of David and Goliath that has served Zelenskyy well. Speak softly but carry a big stick.
That way those countries who are anti imperialist and sceptical of the West stay onside. Russia gets the humiliation it deserves. It remains very clear who the bad guys are. It undermines domestic confidence in Putin.
Instead all this crowing from the likes of Truss and Johnson helps Russia to frame it as a fight between Russia and NATO - peers. Russia even gets to play the underdog. The global South looks on and conclude they’re all as bad as each other, this is an imperial proxy war etc etc.
Let the Ukrainians take the credit while quietly tooling them up. Much better PR.
No, absolutely not.
The problem with that is that too many like Olaf Sholz and many others would quietly like this whole thing to go away and would be happy to refuse to send support to Ukraine that it desperately needs.
It isn't about faux PR. Yes Ukraine is using our weaponry, we're not ashamed of saying so and they are asking for it. They are begging for it.
So it is entirely appropriate and right that Britain stands up and says we will give Ukraine whatever they're asking for and keep the pressure on Sholz and others to do the same.
If that doesn't suit Putin - tough shit. He's not our ally, Zelenskyy is and we are listening to him not Putin.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
It's also worked "well" because the weapons are being expended at a profligate rate. The Ukrainians have used tens of thousands of (free) ATGMs to kill 500+ Russian tanks.
Well, 3,250 bits of kit we know are confirmed......including the supply convoys, APCs and specialist kit. The double-tap works well elsewhere.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
It's also worked "well" because the weapons are being expended at a profligate rate. The Ukrainians have used tens of thousands of (free) ATGMs to kill 500+ Russian tanks.
Two points:
1) Source of that claim that they have expended 'tens of thousands' ? They may have been given that many; where is your evidence they have been used?
2) Tanks are not just the only hardened target; they have also destroyed 300+ armoured fighting vehicles, 600+ infantry fighting vehicles, 100+ APCs, etc, etc.
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
Cookie - did you really think we would never do gigs, parties, live sport etc again? I assumed most people would catch covid and recover and have immunity. So a pattern similar to spanish flu, or even horrifically hte Black Death. I did have more faith that one infection would confer immunity for a fair while though and that the vaccines would be better at preventing spread. Covids current rate of evolution is huge, but it will be limited to some extent by the available workable mutations. You cannot infinitely change the spike protein and have it retain its function, for instance. Its also interesting that omicron is much more an upper respiratory tract disease than previous variants. Much more cold like (not saying its just a cold).
It looks like cases in the UK are crashing now (caveat - fewer tests going on) as the wave recedes and summer returns. Biggest questions will be do we all need boosters in the autumn and against what? A specific omicron or a broader spectrum, or even just original covid?
In hospital and admissions are heading down, quite quickly.
And at least half of those admissions are not primarily for covid either, something which dropped off the narrative a bit. Looks good for a while, pressure hopefully easing on the hospitals and the staff to get some decent time off over summer.
In a tight fight between the LD and Tories another candidate who is not a member of the Green party had their description of 'Independent Green' rejected. They are now standing as an Independent. Who is their proposer? The Tory Candidate!
I mean if you are going to try and split the LD vote, don't use your candidate to propose a competitive candidate. It is idiotic and guess what the LDs will expose you to the electorate as being devious.
In a tight fight between the LD and Tories another candidate who is not a member of the Green party had their description of 'Independent Green' rejected. They are now standing as an Independent. Who is their proposer? The Tory Candidate!
I mean if you are going to try and split the LD vote, don't use your candidate to propose a competitive candidate. It is idiotic and guess what the LDs will expose you to the electorate as being devious.
OGH is right. Labour need just a 4% swing to deprive the Tories of their majority but a huge 1997 style 10.5% swing for a majority even of just 1 and that is before the boundary changes which would see a Tory net gain relative to Labour.
They have clearly achieved the former on current polling but are still a significant way from the latter on most polls
The pro give in to Russia crowd on twitter thinks Russia is winning the war, that the initial attack on Kyiv achieved its objective of shaping the battlefield in Russia's favour, and that the pro-Ukraine crowd on twitter is starting to lose heart.
Any idea what this is based on?
It's not based on anything. It's complete BS. Unless you think the plan was for 20k dead, their flagship sunk, having to take weapons out of mothballs, being humiliated around Kyiv, have Ukraine attack Russia itself, and comprehensively trashing the economy. If you think that, then yes it's all going to plan, and hopefull the next step of this brilliant plan is Putin mysteriously dropping dead and the world wondering which of his closest confidants did the deed.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
No it isn't, plus we aren't on our own we have allies.
It's not futuristic to think that technology matters. It isn't about machines, superior technology has swung warfare for centuries already if not millennia.
Dick swinging numbers ranking nations as having X amount of troops, Y amount of ships and Z amount of tanks doesn't matter if the Z tanks are poorly maintained and the troops are poorly equipped and trained.
Hypothetically speaking would you rather 60,000 elite extremely well trained and equipped troops with top notch equipment, ammunitions, logistical support etc ... Or 200,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped troops ready to be thrown to the meat grinder without the armour or support they require to operate properly?
Yes, technology matters. And home-grown matters too. But you still need boots on the ground, and shoulders to use shoulder-launched weapons. A Cummings-style review is good but we can't do a Cummings-style reducto ad absurdum and reduce the army to the SAS and some drones. There might also be a question of what is the purpose of our armed forces: we might need tanks to meet NATO commitments but Britain does not have a land border with Russia or anyone else except Ireland. How will we protect trade routes and overseas territories if the Royal Navy is reduced to a carrier and a couple of frigates without torpedos?
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
In the latest War on the Rocks podcast Michael Kofman is interesting on the problem Russia has with not having any infantry to support their armoured units.
From the manning levels documents that Ukraine has got their hands onto from defeated units on the battlefield, Russian infantry fighting vehicles each have 5 soldiers - 3 crew and 2 to dismount. It's a long way short of where they should be.
This means the Russians are fighting with essentially no infantry, and so cannot perform combined arms operations.
We do still need infantry for the British Army. We're short of sailors for the Navy too.
There needs to be much more focus on Russia's blockade of Odessa and the effect on global food prices. That ought to terrify an awful lot of governments. I'm sure there are a lot of fence sitters at the UN who don't want to burn their bridges with Russia but ultimately only North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Eritrea were prepared to back them.
Posted this the other day. Elmbridge Conservatives are in meltdown from all I hear.
Not good for Raab or JohnO who is standing again next week
It would be interesting to here from @JohnO as I am only hearing stuff 3rd hand and what I hear isn't unbiased, although I suspect he won't want to comment on negative issues before the election. When John commented on his chances he was typicality modest here, but I got the impression he was fairly safe.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I have some sympathy with David’s position on this although for slightly different reasons.
NATO countries can and should continue arming Ukraine to the teeth but I don’t see what benefit it serves to keep banging on about it. The PR impact is probably negative.
Surely what the world needs if we’re to succeed in exposing Russia for the paper tiger it has become is for plucky underdog Ukraine to defend its territory bravely and send overrated Russia packing. Keep up the perception of David and Goliath that has served Zelenskyy well. Speak softly but carry a big stick.
That way those countries who are anti imperialist and sceptical of the West stay onside. Russia gets the humiliation it deserves. It remains very clear who the bad guys are. It undermines domestic confidence in Putin.
Instead all this crowing from the likes of Truss and Johnson helps Russia to frame it as a fight between Russia and NATO - peers. Russia even gets to play the underdog. The global South looks on and conclude they’re all as bad as each other, this is an imperial proxy war etc etc.
Let the Ukrainians take the credit while quietly tooling them up. Much better PR.
Come now, let us not miss what’s really important, there are careers to be preserved and advanced. Takes us to some pretty weird places, mind.
Perfect time for a trade war between allies. What more could Putin ask for?
Tories and DUP are wetting their knickers because SF are going to win and have the Leadership in Stormont.
There were a couple of questions about this at PMQs yesterday and Boris was keen to emphasise that the NI protocol was not only causing problems for NI economically but politically, specifically it is undermining the Unionist parties that initially backed it. Boris claimed that the protocol was undermining the Good Friday Agreement. He wants to do something about this and soon but keeping a united front on Ukraine is obviously the priority at the moment.
It's a tricky one for him. It's possible that a re-elected Macron may be more amenable to some sort of a deal but I wouldn't count on it.
Boris Johnson is going to demonstrate his commitment to democracy and the rule of law by overriding the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland, who will be giving their backing to pro-Protocol parties next week, and in doing so breaking international treaty obligations freely entered into by the UK government. Vladimir Putin says thanks!
Invoking Article 16 doesn't break any obligations.
It's literally a part of the Treaty itself, how could it? 🤦♂️
The point is that triggering Article 16 should only be used if they are addressing unforeseen issues when the NI protocol was signed .
The agreement clearly laid out what was likely to happen and therefore those aren’t unforeseen issues . Just because the clown doesn’t now like what he signed up to does not give the UK government license to trigger Article 16 .
The list of desperate excuses peddled by Frost is pathetic . Amongst them now saying that the UK signed the deal under duress.
Completely fallacious, you're projecting your own wishes. Article 16 does not contain the word unforeseen at all. Indeed the very existence of Article 16 is precisely because problems were foreseeable.
You can not have it both ways. Article 16 can be invoked if there are certain problems. If those problems were foreseeable when the Protocol which includes Article 16 was signed, then the invocation of Article 16 was also foreseeable when the agreement was signed.
Your logic is like reaching an agreement with someone saying that an umbrella can be used if its raining, then saying that rain was foreseeable so therefore the umbrella can't be used. It is completely illogical. The foreseeable problems are precisely why an Article exists on how to deal with those problems, if those problems arise in a foreseen manner then that Article can be enacted and that could always be foreseen.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
No it isn't, plus we aren't on our own we have allies.
It's not futuristic to think that technology matters. It isn't about machines, superior technology has swung warfare for centuries already if not millennia.
Dick swinging numbers ranking nations as having X amount of troops, Y amount of ships and Z amount of tanks doesn't matter if the Z tanks are poorly maintained and the troops are poorly equipped and trained.
Hypothetically speaking would you rather 60,000 elite extremely well trained and equipped troops with top notch equipment, ammunitions, logistical support etc ... Or 200,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped troops ready to be thrown to the meat grinder without the armour or support they require to operate properly?
Yes, technology matters. And home-grown matters too. But you still need boots on the ground, and shoulders to use shoulder-launched weapons. A Cummings-style review is good but we can't do a Cummings-style reducto ad absurdum and reduce the army to the SAS and some drones. There might also be a question of what is the purpose of our armed forces: we might need tanks to meet NATO commitments but Britain does not have a land border with Russia or anyone else except Ireland. How will we protect trade routes and overseas territories if the Royal Navy is reduced to a carrier and a couple of frigates without torpedos?
The key point is that every time the tories reduce the headcount of the armed forces the ones who leave are the ones with the best employment prospects outside in civvie street. That is, technical specialists, senior NCOs, etc. You don't just get left with a perfectly balanced force of magical high-tech Super Army Soldiers by cutting the numbers.
Perfect time for a trade war between allies. What more could Putin ask for?
Tories and DUP are wetting their knickers because SF are going to win and have the Leadership in Stormont.
There were a couple of questions about this at PMQs yesterday and Boris was keen to emphasise that the NI protocol was not only causing problems for NI economically but politically, specifically it is undermining the Unionist parties that initially backed it. Boris claimed that the protocol was undermining the Good Friday Agreement. He wants to do something about this and soon but keeping a united front on Ukraine is obviously the priority at the moment.
It's a tricky one for him. It's possible that a re-elected Macron may be more amenable to some sort of a deal but I wouldn't count on it.
Boris Johnson is going to demonstrate his commitment to democracy and the rule of law by overriding the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland, who will be giving their backing to pro-Protocol parties next week, and in doing so breaking international treaty obligations freely entered into by the UK government. Vladimir Putin says thanks!
Invoking Article 16 doesn't break any obligations.
It's literally a part of the Treaty itself, how could it? 🤦♂️
The point is that triggering Article 16 should only be used if they are addressing unforeseen issues when the NI protocol was signed .
The agreement clearly laid out what was likely to happen and therefore those aren’t unforeseen issues . Just because the clown doesn’t now like what he signed up to does not give the UK government license to trigger Article 16 .
The list of desperate excuses peddled by Frost is pathetic . Amongst them now saying that the UK signed the deal under duress.
Completely fallacious, you're projecting your own wishes. Article 16 does not contain the word unforeseen at all. Indeed the very existence of Article 16 is precisely because problems were foreseeable.
You can not have it both ways. Article 16 can be invoked if there are certain problems. If those problems were foreseeable when the Protocol which includes Article 16 was signed, then the invocation of Article 16 was also foreseeable when the agreement was signed.
Your logic is like reaching an agreement with someone saying that an umbrella can be used if its raining, then saying that rain was foreseeable so therefore the umbrella can't be used. It is completely illogical. The foreseeable problems are precisely why an Article exists on how to deal with those problems, if those problems arise in a foreseen manner then that Article can be enacted and that could always be foreseen.
As was made clear at the time, the plan was always to sign the Withdrawal Agreement containing the Protocol, then the trade agreement, then to revisit the NI protocol afterwards. The staging of the agreements was entirely from the EU side.
Let’s hope that, now the French election is over, there can be a little more pragmatism towards finding a workable permanent solution, rather than the antagonism we have seen to date.
Ben Wallace says it is unlikely British weapons would be used to strike Russia from Ukraine even if British supplied artillery was used to attack Russian targets within Ukraine
Good morning! Keeping well here thanks, looking forward to the Eid holiday next week, although we are going to get some rare late spring rain in the next couple of days.
Thankfully the Ukraine situation appears better from a personal point of view, with the fighting now mostly confined to the south and east regions away from friends and family. We all need to not lose focus though, and keep the military aid flowing.
How are things with you?
Doing okay here, off the anti-depressants and back playing cricket!
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I'm not sure that's right - we seem to be escalating step by step - from "only defensive weapons and intelligence" to "well, and some artillery" to "and some second-hand tanks" to "and maybe aircraft", while our political stance has changed from "defend Ukraine from the invasion" to "help them recover Donbas and Crimea", including the dubious claim from Wallace today that the Russians have broken the Minsk agreement (the Ukrainians never delivered the promised regionalisation, arguing that the agreement was made under duress). I appreciate that there are posters hear who feel that's exactly what we want, but countries like Germany and even France probably don't.
I've been in favour of helping Ukraine fight off the crazy czarist invasion from the start. But the overt gloating and increasing engagement and extending the war to the last Ukrainian and Russian is likely to lead to splits in the western alliance. We should commit as much as is needed to halt the continued slow Russian advance in the east, so Putin realises he's getting nowhere. Beyond that may be counterproductive, and boasting about it particularly so. In particular, it's odd that we're so keen to advertise our huge intelligence superiority. Isn't that better kept secret?
Posted this the other day. Elmbridge Conservatives are in meltdown from all I hear.
Not good for Raab or JohnO who is standing again next week
It would be interesting to here from @JohnO as I am only hearing stuff 3rd hand and what I hear isn't unbiased, although I suspect he won't want to comment on negative issues before the election. When John commented on his chances he was typicality modest here, but I got the impression he was fairly safe.
Goodness, this is a boring SCC Conservative Group Zoom meeting….
….Better I refrain from commenting on a former colleague but all is emphatically not what it might appear! There are certainly many vigorously contested wards this year with most Con defences as we had a spectacularly successful 2018. Here in Hersham, we are the only ones doing anything, including literature. But acutely aware of what hubris can bring in its wake, I’ll be cautious in predicting the outcome. Putative paper candidates can be mystically transformed into actual Councillors.
On the topic of the misogyny scandal at Westminster. I really think MPs (see Ben Wallace this morning) will soon have to stop blaming the problem on late night sittings and the bars. The House has far fewer late night sittings than it had in the past and the number of bars has reduced too. In my experience the bars are mostly used by staff letting off steam anyway.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
No it isn't, plus we aren't on our own we have allies.
It's not futuristic to think that technology matters. It isn't about machines, superior technology has swung warfare for centuries already if not millennia.
Dick swinging numbers ranking nations as having X amount of troops, Y amount of ships and Z amount of tanks doesn't matter if the Z tanks are poorly maintained and the troops are poorly equipped and trained.
Hypothetically speaking would you rather 60,000 elite extremely well trained and equipped troops with top notch equipment, ammunitions, logistical support etc ... Or 200,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped troops ready to be thrown to the meat grinder without the armour or support they require to operate properly?
Yes, technology matters. And home-grown matters too. But you still need boots on the ground, and shoulders to use shoulder-launched weapons. A Cummings-style review is good but we can't do a Cummings-style reducto ad absurdum and reduce the army to the SAS and some drones. There might also be a question of what is the purpose of our armed forces: we might need tanks to meet NATO commitments but Britain does not have a land border with Russia or anyone else except Ireland. How will we protect trade routes and overseas territories if the Royal Navy is reduced to a carrier and a couple of frigates without torpedos?
Ah, torpedos on surface ships. The history on that one is entertaining.
1) Add torpedos 2) Notice that as torpedo armament goes up, you have a deck full of explody things 3) Put them in an underwater torpedo room. 4) Discover that a huge torpedo room below water is really, really good for mucking up damage control and making your ship vulnerable. 5) Back to only destroyers and cruisers having anti-ship torpedos 6) Introduction of anti-sub torpedos. Anti-surface torpedos dropped from surface ships. 7) These are light weight and short ranged, due to being air droppable 8) Someone notices that the range is far less than the heavy weight torpedoes that the subs will be firing. 9) Try to mount heavy weight torpedos on ships again. 10) This gives us 2 & 3 again - plus modern heavy weight torpedoes can't handle being dropped into the sea from an upper deck. 11) Put the light weight anti-sub torpedos on the helicopter. Or on a missile. 12) What about if the weather is shit or the sub pops up under you?
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I'm not sure that's right - we seem to be escalating step by step - from "only defensive weapons and intelligence" to "well, and some artillery" to "and some second-hand tanks" to "and maybe aircraft", while our political stance has changed from "defend Ukraine from the invasion" to "help them recover Donbas and Crimea", including the dubious claim from Wallace today that the Russians have broken the Minsk agreement (the Ukrainians never delivered the promised regionalisation, arguing that the agreement was made under duress). I appreciate that there are posters hear who feel that's exactly what we want, but countries like Germany and even France probably don't.
I've been in favour of helping Ukraine fight off the crazy czarist invasion from the start. But the overt gloating and increasing engagement and extending the war to the last Ukrainian and Russian is likely to lead to splits in the western alliance. We should commit as much as is needed to halt the continued slow Russian advance in the east, so Putin realises he's getting nowhere. Beyond that may be counterproductive, and boasting about it particularly so. In particular, it's odd that we're so keen to advertise our huge intelligence superiority. Isn't that better kept secret?
The sanctions etc should end when Russia with out of Ukrainian soil. Yes that includes all of the Donbas and Crimea.
We have always recognised all of the Donbas and Crimea as Ukrainian. Putin started the war, but we should help Ukraine finish it and that should mean Russia retreating out of all territory they've occupied including Crimea and certainly including all of the Donbas.
Why should we accept anything less than Russia out of all of Ukraine? Putin started this, but that doesn't mean he gets to risk-free try to seize territory and we won't help push him back to his own borders.
Have we done this? Can someone please rid us of this turbulent loosed lipped prat?
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
Do you really think that the Russians don't know this?
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
If somebody were going to write a novel about how a nuclear war wipes out civilisation then the events of Feb 24th to date are a fucking good Chapter 1.
Succinctly put!
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
If you feel defenceless, the last thing you do is lose a chunk of the defences you do have on a disastrous attack on a neighbouring state.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....
They have made horrific mistakes and acted in a vile and evil way. I am no apologist for Putin, he is a psychopathoc monster. They massively overestimated their capability and underestimated how much the Ukrainian army had improved, in no small part due to us.
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
I agree David but I think the response has been careful and measured and will continue to be so. NATO could have just waded in and beat the shit out of the Russian Army but that would have increased the risk of nuclear response. Instead it is orchestrating the steady degrading of Russia's military capability, and the trashing of the Russian brand generally.
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
I'm not sure that's right - we seem to be escalating step by step - from "only defensive weapons and intelligence" to "well, and some artillery" to "and some second-hand tanks" to "and maybe aircraft", while our political stance has changed from "defend Ukraine from the invasion" to "help them recover Donbas and Crimea", including the dubious claim from Wallace today that the Russians have broken the Minsk agreement (the Ukrainians never delivered the promised regionalisation, arguing that the agreement was made under duress). I appreciate that there are posters hear who feel that's exactly what we want, but countries like Germany and even France probably don't.
I've been in favour of helping Ukraine fight off the crazy czarist invasion from the start. But the overt gloating and increasing engagement and extending the war to the last Ukrainian and Russian is likely to lead to splits in the western alliance. We should commit as much as is needed to halt the continued slow Russian advance in the east, so Putin realises he's getting nowhere. Beyond that may be counterproductive, and boasting about it particularly so. In particular, it's odd that we're so keen to advertise our huge intelligence superiority. Isn't that better kept secret?
On the intelligence stuff - this is a deliberate policy, from before the the war started.
The reverse of the WMD Iraq secret squirrel stuff. Openly state what you know.
It has been very successful in making Putin & Co look like prats. And it must put a cold finger on the spines of various people in his system - they know the the specifics of what *they* do is being seen by unfriendly eyes.
Since the material is being given to the Ukrainians - why try and hide it?
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
Cookie - did you really think we would never do gigs, parties, live sport etc again? I assumed most people would catch covid and recover and have immunity. So a pattern similar to spanish flu, or even horrifically hte Black Death. I did have more faith that one infection would confer immunity for a fair while though and that the vaccines would be better at preventing spread. Covids current rate of evolution is huge, but it will be limited to some extent by the available workable mutations. You cannot infinitely change the spike protein and have it retain its function, for instance. Its also interesting that omicron is much more an upper respiratory tract disease than previous variants. Much more cold like (not saying its just a cold).
It looks like cases in the UK are crashing now (caveat - fewer tests going on) as the wave recedes and summer returns. Biggest questions will be do we all need boosters in the autumn and against what? A specific omicron or a broader spectrum, or even just original covid?
In hospital and admissions are heading down, quite quickly.
And at least half of those admissions are not primarily for covid either, something which dropped off the narrative a bit. Looks good for a while, pressure hopefully easing on the hospitals and the staff to get some decent time off over summer.
In an example of NHS rapid response to the Covid crisis, my mum (who has been in hospital for ~ 6 weeks, last three weeks on a rehab unit with physio-focus) was this week given a leaflet telling her that due to high Covid levels, if there is an increase then she might be booted out, either back home or to a care home. Caused a bit of unecessary stress...
Local cases there are also dropping well, as are hospital numbers, so I assume the leaflet is the delayed fruit of a decision to launch and publicise a contingency plan agreed probably a month or more ago and, now the crisis has largely passed, ready for action.
Good morning! Keeping well here thanks, looking forward to the Eid holiday next week, although we are going to get some rare late spring rain in the next couple of days.
Thankfully the Ukraine situation appears better from a personal point of view, with the fighting now mostly confined to the south and east regions away from friends and family. We all need to not lose focus though, and keep the military aid flowing.
How are things with you?
Doing okay here, off the anti-depressants and back playing cricket!
Good to hear, and have fun with the cricket! I’ve not played cricket in ages, find it much easier to sit in the stands with a cold beer these days!
In a tight fight between the LD and Tories another candidate who is not a member of the Green party had their description of 'Independent Green' rejected. They are now standing as an Independent. Who is their proposer? The Tory Candidate!
I mean if you are going to try and split the LD vote, don't use your candidate to propose a competitive candidate. It is idiotic and guess what the LDs will expose you to the electorate as being devious.
@Sandpit at least we do it well. I mean it was utterly incompetent. No complaints with what they did.
@Sandpit This of course is one of the many flaw of FPTP. I wasn't critical of the Tories doing this. I was critical of their incompetence and boy was it incompetent. How useless do you have to be to use your candidate to propose. Having said that it is hypocritical that they defend FPTP and then exploiting a flaw in it that they deny is an issue. I didn't know about the LD stuff. Rather impressed, although I would prefer none of this happened and happy they are all exposed.
Incidentally @Nigelb as far as the Indo Pacific is concerned, yes us having military equipment there as deterrence and to protect allies there is equally a strategic UK policy and not something made on the hoof.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
Was that the plan signed off by Ben Wallace to cut yet another 10,000 soldiers and invest in the white heat of the technological revolution filtered through whatever book Dominic Cummings had last read?
Seems to me through this conflict that British military technology is working pretty well and is far more use than x amount of soliders.
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Our technology has worked extremely well because very brave Ukrainians have been willing to risk and lose their lives to use it. There will come a time when machines take over the battlefield but we are a long way from that yet and our army is currently too small in numbers to achieve much on its own.
No it isn't, plus we aren't on our own we have allies.
It's not futuristic to think that technology matters. It isn't about machines, superior technology has swung warfare for centuries already if not millennia.
Dick swinging numbers ranking nations as having X amount of troops, Y amount of ships and Z amount of tanks doesn't matter if the Z tanks are poorly maintained and the troops are poorly equipped and trained.
Hypothetically speaking would you rather 60,000 elite extremely well trained and equipped troops with top notch equipment, ammunitions, logistical support etc ... Or 200,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped troops ready to be thrown to the meat grinder without the armour or support they require to operate properly?
Yes, technology matters. And home-grown matters too. But you still need boots on the ground, and shoulders to use shoulder-launched weapons. A Cummings-style review is good but we can't do a Cummings-style reducto ad absurdum and reduce the army to the SAS and some drones. There might also be a question of what is the purpose of our armed forces: we might need tanks to meet NATO commitments but Britain does not have a land border with Russia or anyone else except Ireland. How will we protect trade routes and overseas territories if the Royal Navy is reduced to a carrier and a couple of frigates without torpedos?
Ah, torpedos on surface ships. The history on that one is entertaining.
1) Add torpedos 2) Notice that as torpedo armament goes up, you have a deck full of explody things 3) Put them in an underwater torpedo room. 4) Discover that a huge torpedo roof below water is really, really good for mucking up damage control and making your ship vulnerable. 5) Back to only destroyers and cruisers having anti-ship torpedos 6) Introduction of anti-sub torpedos. Anti-surface torpedos dropped from surface ships. 7) These are light weight and short ranged, due to being air droppable 8) Someone notices that the range is far less than the heavy weight torpedoes that the subs will be firing. 9) Try to mount heavy weight torpedos on ships again. 10) This gives us 2 & 3 again - plus modern heavy weight torpedoes can't handle being dropped into the sea from an upper deck. 11) Put the light weight anti-sub torpedos on the helicopter. Or on a missile. 12) What about if the weather is shit or the sub pops up under you?
The thinking of the MoD is way simpler than that on T26. Air launched torpedos are the cheapest way to tick the 'ASW' capability box. That's it, there is nothing more to it. Both the Australians and Canadians have added the torpedos back on their T26 variants.
I heard yesterday that Rishi had been cleared of any wrongdoing in financial matters. Hardly surprising. I wonder who the investigator was, Lord Geidt?
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
Cookie - did you really think we would never do gigs, parties, live sport etc again? I assumed most people would catch covid and recover and have immunity. So a pattern similar to spanish flu, or even horrifically hte Black Death. I did have more faith that one infection would confer immunity for a fair while though and that the vaccines would be better at preventing spread. Covids current rate of evolution is huge, but it will be limited to some extent by the available workable mutations. You cannot infinitely change the spike protein and have it retain its function, for instance. Its also interesting that omicron is much more an upper respiratory tract disease than previous variants. Much more cold like (not saying its just a cold).
It looks like cases in the UK are crashing now (caveat - fewer tests going on) as the wave recedes and summer returns. Biggest questions will be do we all need boosters in the autumn and against what? A specific omicron or a broader spectrum, or even just original covid?
In hospital and admissions are heading down, quite quickly.
And at least half of those admissions are not primarily for covid either, something which dropped off the narrative a bit. Looks good for a while, pressure hopefully easing on the hospitals and the staff to get some decent time off over summer.
In an example of NHS rapid response to the Covid crisis, my mum (who has been in hospital for ~ 6 weeks, last three weeks on a rehab unit with physio-focus) was this week given a leaflet telling her that due to high Covid levels, if there is an increase then she might be booted out, either back home or to a care home. Caused a bit of unecessary stress...
Local cases there are also dropping well, as are hospital numbers, so I assume the leaflet is the delayed fruit of a decision to launch and publicise a contingency plan agreed probably a month or more ago and, now the crisis has largely passed, ready for action.
I can't imagine what the point of that leaflet is. Is she supposed to get better faster as a result? What action did they expect from her?
Whilst an overall Labour majority is a huge challenge and Mike is right to say that punters are over-estimating the chances, this is not the same as saying it cannot, or won't happen. Nor is a hung parliament Keir Starmer's 'best hope.'
I've seen sea changes happen, and we are experiencing one. I rule out nothing right now, including a Conservative wipeout.
To get a majority I think Labour would have to get up to 15-20 seats in Scotland. I would struggle to see more than 5-10 tops at the next GE TBH.
I would say 10% chance of a Labour OM rather than 20%.
~30% chance of a Con OM seems about right.
My view is that when Scotland flips it will flip (sorry to be tautological about it).
If Scots sense a chance to eject the Westminster government and replace it with a Labour government with good SLAB representation then I think they'll take it - and we will see c.20 seats go.
Those will be centre/centre-left Unionists, sure, and also include some who vote SNP in Holyrood - because Nicola - but are desperate to see the back of the Tories in Westminster.
I don't think that Scotland will flip next GE. I think the only thing that would flip Scotland back to SLAB would be the SNP losing a further indy ref by a larger margin than last time.
I think "flip" is completely overstating it but I will be surprised if Labour does not take up to a dozen seats off the SNP in the same way as the Tories did in 2017. It is possible that the SNP might be compensated by recovering more seats from the Tories but they are not quite as dominant as they were.
Indeed. While I also doubt a flip (unless a gain of 10-15 seats counts and perhaps a lot of that coming from Tory switchers?), the SNP are weak on domestic issues, particularly education and local Government. Throw in ferries, general Government incompetence and this kerfuffle over Indy legal advice (where the ScotGov seem to be operating under the misapprehension that such advice was given to a private client) and you have the conditions for a big political backlash. The missing ingredient is the scandal that catalyses the whole thing into a coherent narrative and dumps it at the feet of the SNP.
My own view is that the people of Scotland are not daft, and for a sizeable chunk of the electorate the Union/Independence is transactional. If people feel they are better served outside the UK, then they will vote for independence. If they think independence will make them poorer, then they won't vote for it. This makes the SNP vote soft at the margins, which means that a decent opposition could do pretty well, especially if they can target the SNP's weaknesses.
Yes. This gets to the nub of it. Scots won't knowingly vote to make themselves poorer - which is what independence would do. Puts the SNP in a bind. The only way they can win is to BS monumentally about currency, debt, etc etc, - essentially lie and deceive. This is what politicians do, but a strain, all the same. And those not invested in Indy can smell it.
I think we are in a holding pattern still but, as has been commented, if there does seem a realistic chance of a Lab Govt at Westminster then we could see some movement in the Central Belt. In 2017 Corbyn took 6 seats off the SNP and a lot of other SNP seats had their majorities cut to wafer-thin levels. Lab lost them again in 2019, but it does show what could happen.
I heard yesterday that Rishi had been cleared of any wrongdoing in financial matters. Hardly surprising. I wonder who the investigator was, Lord Geidt?
Yes
Unsurprisingly, what he did always looked like career destroying bad optics but not against the rules.
As much as we want Russia pushed out of all Ukraine it’s not going to happen . No way will Putin accept anything less than total control of those eastern breakaways aswell as the land bridge to Crimea .
All efforts should be in protecting Odessa and that coastal fringe to the south west and securing the rest of Ukraine with more ability to stop missile attacks .
This might sound defeatist but seems IMO to be the reality of the situation.
Comments
Did you fix the problem with your VPN?
Russia has far more soldiers in this conflict than we do, but our technology like NLAWs are doing very well. What good would 10,000 soldiers be right now?
Technology and logistics is how 21st century wars are won or lost.
Now what do we need to do, to get production up at the Turkish drone factory?
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. ... We're all completely fucked" .
And that he is not a disciple of the moral approach of the recently cancelled David Hume, luminary of the Scottish enlightenment:
"It is not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger." (Treatise of Human Nature)
But this is still a very, very dangerous situation and in our understandable desire to punish Russia for its mistakes we are in danger of sleep walking into a much wider war. We need a careful, measured response. Truss's speech, in my view, was unnecessarily inflamatory and unwise.
Putin is looking like a very weak horse these days.
My own view is that the people of Scotland are not daft, and for a sizeable chunk of the electorate the Union/Independence is transactional. If people feel they are better served outside the UK, then they will vote for independence. If they think independence will make them poorer, then they won't vote for it. This makes the SNP vote soft at the margins, which means that a decent opposition could do pretty well, especially if they can target the SNP's weaknesses.
If the Government fiddles with the NI Protocol and a trade war ensues then any rises in living costs will be much harder to paint as being down to Ukraine being invaded (which is legitimate) and much easier to paint as being an unnecessary choice by the Government.
Do they really want to take 'credit' for rising living costs? For the sake of a few headlines about 'standing up' to the EU over a deal that the incumbent PM signed up to?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
Life was shit. And then we got vaccines. And now life isn't shit. We can do things I honestly never thought we would again - gigs, parties, live sport. Because of vaccines. They don't stop you catching covid, but they do stop you dying.
The current probabilities fail to take account of the prospects and risks in the future, which are as great for Labour as they are for the Tories, and are over reliant on current sentiment.
Hospital admissions are now solidly below R = 1
That seems sensible to me, even if it is tough on the Ukranians, who are on the sharp end.
Of course there is always the risk that Putin resorts in desperation to nukes, but that is always a risk as long as nukes exists and there are unstable and unwise leaders in the world, i.e. forever. You don't eliminate that risk however by backing off. That just encourages Putin and his like to press on and threaten whover they like.
So it's steady as she goes, but keep going.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/27/elon-musk-attacks-twitter-inappropriate-ban-anti-biden-newspaper/
we’ve got some good intell on what’s in next week’s Queen’s Speech and here it is
https://www.ft.com/content/e211708d-c4e5-48c4-8c09-a4debed2554b https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1519582569339457537/photo/1
The policing bill targets Steve Bray, the demonstrator outside Parliament. The judicial review bill is the result of outrage over the Supreme Court decision against Johnson. The elections bill targets the Electoral Commission after it found Vote Leave overspent in the referendum.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1519582618739748864
At least before Xi, Chinese foreign policy was about trying to avoid "adventurism". Putin's holiday in Ukraine has turned from a quick reclaim-a-breakaway-state-that-should-be-part-of-the-motherland (looking at you, Taiwan), into a mess.
Buying Russian weapons looks particularly stupid, at the moment.
My guess is that the Chinese government will looks for some cheap commodities from Russia and give very little in return.
(Morning all)
Thankfully the Ukraine situation appears better from a personal point of view, with the fighting now mostly confined to the south and east regions away from friends and family. We all need to not lose focus though, and keep the military aid flowing.
How are things with you?
For me the probabilities are in order of likelihood
Tory majority
Labour Majority
NoM
Any Tory majority is likely to be much reduced but they have quite a long way to fall.
NATO countries can and should continue arming Ukraine to the teeth but I don’t see what benefit it serves to keep banging on about it. The PR impact is probably negative.
Surely what the world needs if we’re to succeed in exposing Russia for the paper tiger it has become is for plucky underdog Ukraine to defend its territory bravely and send overrated Russia packing. Keep up the perception of David and Goliath that has served Zelenskyy well. Speak softly but carry a big stick.
That way those countries who are anti imperialist and sceptical of the West stay onside. Russia gets the humiliation it deserves. It remains very clear who the bad guys are. It undermines domestic confidence in Putin.
Instead all this crowing from the likes of Truss and Johnson helps Russia to frame it as a fight between Russia and NATO - peers. Russia even gets to play the underdog. The global South looks on and conclude they’re all as bad as each other, this is an imperial proxy war etc etc.
Let the Ukrainians take the credit while quietly tooling them up. Much better PR.
Look at the list.
Which bill is going to make life easier for people struggling to pay their bills, and which ones are about entrenching BoZo and his cronies in power?
TAKE BACK CONTROL- but Sunak has raised the idea of an energy windfall tax on the *same day* Raab called the idea “disastrous” and Johnson dubbed it “Labour’s tax on business”
https://www.ft.com/content/80978fd1-d954-4cf2-835c-8806148f798f
The Governor has said something along the lines that it all looks a difficult decision at moment as there are signs of a coming recession so raising rates to deal with a supply side inflation problem might be a mistake. If I have understood things he is a bit out on a limb over this compared to US, where the Fed are saying rates almost definitely going up.
There are analysts who say the inflation is a product of the stupendous money growth that happened during pandemic which has now rapidly declined so the worry is recession not inflation.
Glad I'm not deciding to be honest, as I have posted on here before that the BoE were way behind the curve on rates rising, but heck what do I know.
Or maybe she actually is as fucking stupid as she appears.
There’s lots of suggestions and conspiracy theories going round as to why, the most likely of which is probably a lot of unbanning of accounts, the more outlandish refer to a wholesale deletion of ‘evidence’ of political bias before the new management arrives.
- there won't be a general election until May 2024
- if Boris has trashed his own brand, he will be moved on before he can trash the party brand. That is nowhere near happening yet, certainly not beyond the mid-term blues that gave Ed Miliband a 20% lead. Remember Prime Minister Ed Mliband? No, me neither.
- Tories start with a big seat haul. They never had the cities, and votes can pile up there to no material effect. Meanwhile, Labour are not making anything like the gains they need in the Midlands, trending ever more blue.
- The other parties have to offer something else - no evidence of that yet
Russia has framed it as a fight against NATO expansion from the start, among other stupid reasons, and most of the world seems happy to buy it, at least insomuch as not wishing to get involved in any way. So I dont think overdone commentary from Truss and co will make a difference.
It looks like cases in the UK are crashing now (caveat - fewer tests going on) as the wave recedes and summer returns. Biggest questions will be do we all need boosters in the autumn and against what? A specific omicron or a broader spectrum, or even just original covid?
It's literally a part of the Treaty itself, how could it? 🤦♂️
We need some sort of mythology about it like St. Swithuns Day. If Labour are three points ahead in the polls on Ed Balls Day they will gain Morley and Outwood. Or something.
It's not futuristic to think that technology matters. It isn't about machines, superior technology has swung warfare for centuries already if not millennia.
Dick swinging numbers ranking nations as having X amount of troops, Y amount of ships and Z amount of tanks doesn't matter if the Z tanks are poorly maintained and the troops are poorly equipped and trained.
Hypothetically speaking would you rather 60,000 elite extremely well trained and equipped troops with top notch equipment, ammunitions, logistical support etc ... Or 200,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped troops ready to be thrown to the meat grinder without the armour or support they require to operate properly?
In a tight fight between the LD and Tories another candidate who is not a member of the Green party had their description of 'Independent Green' rejected. They are now standing as an Independent. Who is their proposer? The Tory Candidate!
I mean if you are going to try and split the LD vote, don't use your candidate to propose a competitive candidate. It is idiotic and guess what the LDs will expose you to the electorate as being devious.
Xi really doesn’t want to be also pissing off most of the world, by overtly supporting Russia against Ukraine. They sure as hell won’t wanting to be buying Russian military equipment, which has been shown to fall short against a well-armed enemy.
Now that's what I call thinking outside the box!
The agreement clearly laid out what was likely to happen and therefore those aren’t unforeseen issues . Just because the clown doesn’t now like what he signed up to does not give the UK government license to trigger Article 16 .
The list of desperate excuses peddled by Frost is pathetic . Amongst them now saying that the UK signed the deal under duress.
The problem with that is that too many like Olaf Sholz and many others would quietly like this whole thing to go away and would be happy to refuse to send support to Ukraine that it desperately needs.
It isn't about faux PR. Yes Ukraine is using our weaponry, we're not ashamed of saying so and they are asking for it. They are begging for it.
So it is entirely appropriate and right that Britain stands up and says we will give Ukraine whatever they're asking for and keep the pressure on Sholz and others to do the same.
If that doesn't suit Putin - tough shit. He's not our ally, Zelenskyy is and we are listening to him not Putin.
1) Source of that claim that they have expended 'tens of thousands' ? They may have been given that many; where is your evidence they have been used?
2) Tanks are not just the only hardened target; they have also destroyed 300+ armoured fighting vehicles, 600+ infantry fighting vehicles, 100+ APCs, etc, etc.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
They have clearly achieved the former on current polling but are still a significant way from the latter on most polls
From the manning levels documents that Ukraine has got their hands onto from defeated units on the battlefield, Russian infantry fighting vehicles each have 5 soldiers - 3 crew and 2 to dismount. It's a long way short of where they should be.
This means the Russians are fighting with essentially no infantry, and so cannot perform combined arms operations.
We do still need infantry for the British Army. We're short of sailors for the Navy too.
You can not have it both ways. Article 16 can be invoked if there are certain problems. If those problems were foreseeable when the Protocol which includes Article 16 was signed, then the invocation of Article 16 was also foreseeable when the agreement was signed.
Your logic is like reaching an agreement with someone saying that an umbrella can be used if its raining, then saying that rain was foreseeable so therefore the umbrella can't be used. It is completely illogical. The foreseeable problems are precisely why an Article exists on how to deal with those problems, if those problems arise in a foreseen manner then that Article can be enacted and that could always be foreseen.
Let’s hope that, now the French election is over, there can be a little more pragmatism towards finding a workable permanent solution, rather than the antagonism we have seen to date.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626a40ce8f0816bf5d41ecc7#block-626a40ce8f0816bf5d41ecc7
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61245456
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-61249056
I've been in favour of helping Ukraine fight off the crazy czarist invasion from the start. But the overt gloating and increasing engagement and extending the war to the last Ukrainian and Russian is likely to lead to splits in the western alliance. We should commit as much as is needed to halt the continued slow Russian advance in the east, so Putin realises he's getting nowhere. Beyond that may be counterproductive, and boasting about it particularly so. In particular, it's odd that we're so keen to advertise our huge intelligence superiority. Isn't that better kept secret?
….Better I refrain from commenting on a former colleague but all is emphatically not what it might appear! There are certainly many vigorously contested wards this year with most Con defences as we had a spectacularly successful 2018. Here in Hersham, we are the only ones doing anything, including literature. But acutely aware of what hubris can bring in its wake, I’ll be cautious in predicting the outcome. Putative paper candidates can be mystically transformed into actual Councillors.
1) Add torpedos
2) Notice that as torpedo armament goes up, you have a deck full of explody things
3) Put them in an underwater torpedo room.
4) Discover that a huge torpedo room below water is really, really good for mucking up damage control and making your ship vulnerable.
5) Back to only destroyers and cruisers having anti-ship torpedos
6) Introduction of anti-sub torpedos. Anti-surface torpedos dropped from surface ships.
7) These are light weight and short ranged, due to being air droppable
8) Someone notices that the range is far less than the heavy weight torpedoes that the subs will be firing.
9) Try to mount heavy weight torpedos on ships again.
10) This gives us 2 & 3 again - plus modern heavy weight torpedoes can't handle being dropped into the sea from an upper deck.
11) Put the light weight anti-sub torpedos on the helicopter. Or on a missile.
12) What about if the weather is shit or the sub pops up under you?
We have always recognised all of the Donbas and Crimea as Ukrainian. Putin started the war, but we should help Ukraine finish it and that should mean Russia retreating out of all territory they've occupied including Crimea and certainly including all of the Donbas.
Why should we accept anything less than Russia out of all of Ukraine? Putin started this, but that doesn't mean he gets to risk-free try to seize territory and we won't help push him back to his own borders.
The reverse of the WMD Iraq secret squirrel stuff. Openly state what you know.
It has been very successful in making Putin & Co look like prats. And it must put a cold finger on the spines of various people in his system - they know the the specifics of what *they* do is being seen by unfriendly eyes.
Since the material is being given to the Ukrainians - why try and hide it?
Local cases there are also dropping well, as are hospital numbers, so I assume the leaflet is the delayed fruit of a decision to launch and publicise a contingency plan agreed probably a month or more ago and, now the crisis has largely passed, ready for action.
If you do reddit, search r/depressionregimens for whatever you are on. There's probably also a r/prozac or whatever for the specific drug
I think we are in a holding pattern still but, as has been commented, if there does seem a realistic chance of a Lab Govt at Westminster then we could see some movement in the Central Belt. In 2017 Corbyn took 6 seats off the SNP and a lot of other SNP seats had their majorities cut to wafer-thin levels. Lab lost them again in 2019, but it does show what could happen.
Unsurprisingly, what he did always looked like career destroying bad optics but not against the rules.
All efforts should be in protecting Odessa and that coastal fringe to the south west and securing the rest of Ukraine with more ability to stop missile attacks .
This might sound defeatist but seems IMO to be the reality of the situation.