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Politics over past year as seen by the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Politics over past year as seen by the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Everybody is talking about the locals at the moment but the big thing about next Thursday’s set of elections is what it will tell us about the next general election. Is Johnson’s government in spite of everything going to be able to survive or else are we going to move into the territory of a hung parliament once again?
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Under the ‘Step 2’ restrictions in place between April 12 and May 17, the Government insisted: ‘You must not socialise indoors except with your household or support bubble.’
Only groups of six were allowed to meet outdoors and pubs could not serve drinks indoors, by law. The separate campaigning guidance allowed political activists to deliver leaflets and knock on voters’ doors.
But they were told: ‘You should not meet with other campaigners indoors.’
So no, lockdown was very much not over. Indeed, I got a telling off for chatting to friends in a pub car park around this time.
I've seen sea changes happen, and we are experiencing one. I rule out nothing right now, including a Conservative wipeout.
Amateur hour.
Truss is not just embarrassing. She’s dangerous.
Get someone serious in as FS, now. Even Theresa May will do. Just someone with the basic skill set required of a FS during a crisis.
As a matter of interest, Labour are picking up in Scotland. They are currently polling around 10% higher than how they performed at the 2019 GE and at current voting intention levels that would equate to taking around 9 seats off the SNP. Something to keep an eye on.
https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/
My view on this at the moment is that NoM should be the standout favourite. The chances of a Conservative majority under BJ are going down the plughole but I also don't rule out the extreme version: the UK equivalent of a Canada wipeout. I think this is now getting to be worse than 1992-7. We have a constellation of circumstances that only seem to be increasing. They might fare disastrously at the General Election if Johnson is still in charge.
I recon that’s a ~30% chance.
It really is that serious.
Exhibits: George Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Churchill, Lloyd George
When it comes to voting in a General Election no one pays any attention to the wider world. Ping and others may lament that, and wish it were not so, but it's the case.
Incidentally, I've treated the ill-Putin meme with a bit of disinterest until this morning. He REALLY does look very unwell to me. Most peculiar puffiness in the face.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/totally-dysfunctional-sophie-in-t-veld-on-the-eus-relationship-with-democracy
This is a war crime on a huge scale.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519504675212570625
Russia says it has "evacuated" more than a million Ukrainians to its territory, including 183,000 children, 🇷🇺state-controled outlet RIA
🇺🇦authorities have repeatedly reported on the forced deportation of Ukrainians, incl orphans, to Russia, in particular from Mariupol and Izium
Only 32% think he should continue in his role.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1519544752827420673
M777 towed 155 mm howitzers bound for 🇺🇦Ukraine are loaded onto a US Air Forces C-17 Globemaster III aircraft,–🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense
Pentagon said “more than half” of 90 Howitzers the US is sending to Ukraine are in the country
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519484542377238530
She is only back cos BoZo can't appoint anyone competent
That’s not a qualification to be PM.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519489653518258177
does this, and the fact Brazil are giving over 300,000 rounds of ammunition to the Ukrainians for the German-provided Gepard tanks, show a weakening of Russia's BRIC hopes?
Ms H, you suggest that NoM should be the favourite and then go on to discuss the possibility, a strong one, apparently, in your view that the next GE could be totally disastrous for the Tories.
Surely, even if that (desirable to me) situation doesn't come to pass, a Labour win rather than NoM is more likely?
I 'don't rule out' the extreme version of a Conservative wipeout but I still think NoM should be clear favourite. 20% Labour majority? I think the markets have that about right.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61252320
The only rider that I would add is that we should not assume that all 56 cases are male on female harrassment. There may well be some female on male harrassment, and highly likely to be some homosexual harrassment in the 56 cases. Finally, of course some of the cases may well not be found to be authentic.
Welsh female mp accuses a shadow cabinet minister of making lewd comments to her
BBC News - Women in politics: Labour figure's 'lewd comments to MP' - claim
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61245456
https://twitter.com/LtTimMcMillan/status/1519343013109108737?t=fUFZv78iwZgbbnhxk2QYXA&s=19
I don't think he looks particularly ill or puffy faced, just tired and under strain. Possibly a hint of a previous left sided weakness from a stroke, but clearly not as bad as Andrew Marr.
I would say 10% chance of a Labour OM rather than 20%.
~30% chance of a Con OM seems about right.
The risk of going nuclear is when it becomes existential for the Putin regime, and that may well happen this year. I am not sure that we can do much to stop it. Putin has not behaved rationally throughout.
Truss is 100% in the right here and doing a good job. As much as some quivering wrecks might want to say yeahbutrussiannukes and hide their heads on the sand.
It is difficult to lose an 80 seat majority at one go, even for this bunch of sleazy porn watching serial lawbreakers and incompetents.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1519539043729649666?t=wUSSePyB0QcSJ5fp8-oXmg&s=19
https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1519199384222990337
The pro give in to Russia crowd on twitter thinks Russia is winning the war, that the initial attack on Kyiv achieved its objective of shaping the battlefield in Russia's favour, and that the pro-Ukraine crowd on twitter is starting to lose heart.
Any idea what this is based on?
Unless you have a different goal in mind than helping Ukraine win the war?
@AndyBounds @FinancialTimes https://on.ft.com/3xZd7Jh
Churchill and George Bush Senior are very much the exceptions.
But those were wars in which their countries were actually fighting. A lot. I think it's difficult to see Boris getting much of a bounce from Ukraine, though Zelensky might win a landslide if he stood in 2024.
The best outcome for Russia is that the war grinds on as an attritional stalemate in more or less the current positions, perhaps with a bit more Donbas.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jKkG-6we5fYeaAuUY-M1DPdmHz-_RcvWC_y7ErCrBL0/edit#gid=0
If Scots sense a chance to eject the Westminster government and replace it with a Labour government with good SLAB representation then I think they'll take it - and we will see c.20 seats go.
Those will be centre/centre-left Unionists, sure, and also include some who vote SNP in Holyrood - because Nicola - but are desperate to see the back of the Tories in Westminster.
Worth noting that the Oryx numbers for Russian losses are now at 3,243 in total including 579 tanks. The numbers being captured seem to be drying up; the proportion destroyed going up. A different phase of the war. The NATO kit being sent looks to be doing the job of blunting Russian efforts to take more Ukrainian turf, as Russia feeds the meat grinder.
In WW2, German U-boat losses ran at 785 out of 1,162 built. In five years. Russian in-theatre tank losses are approaching that level. In 2 months. They can't build more - their main tank factory is closed. The can't buy them internationally. Those that are left in Ukraine are targets, marked with a Z. Their exact locations are known in real time. They can be taken out with a weapon that costs a few % of their initial cost (and that is before the oligarch mark-up on the invoice to the State).
The stuff being sent really is making a difference. You can tell by the Russian whining: "It's not fair...." Russia is like some bloated ten year old, obese from the sweets it robs off six year olds, being confronted by a gang of their pissed off muscly adult brothers, armed with baseball bats. "It's not fair...."
That is of course possible and we have seen it a couple of times in recent memory in 2010 and 2017 but it is unusual. I think that our recent experience is distorting perceptions somewhat. To make it a 52% chance is surely wrong.
He's proved himself to be politically inept and I think he's holed beneath the waterline - both in the parliamentary party and across the country as a whole.
Tories and DUP are wetting their knickers because SF are going to win and have the Leadership in Stormont.
I'm almost certain this kind of freelancing was not approved by cabinet.
And she appears not to understand even what NATO is.
UK’s Liz Truss: NATO should protect Taiwan too
https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-nato-taiwan-protect/
A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine.
Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak, also a former junior defence minister, complained that a loose-lipped prime minister had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.
Speaking to Polish tabloid Fakt, Skrzypczak said that Johnson had revealed “a military secret” and that “bad words are on the lips” when he gave details of the Ukrainian training plan on a trip to India last week.
“Military training is a matter of the army, in such a situation secret. Let a man restrain himself and think before he says such things,” said the former general to the newspaper, which described his tone as irritated in an article from Friday.
“The prime minister may not be aware of it, but with such statements he puts the success of the entire military operation at risk, as well as the safety of the soldiers,” Skrzypczak said. “Such statements are tempting evil.”
On the visit, Johnson had revealed that Ukrainians were being taught how to use Nato-standard weapons in both Poland and the UK. “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence, and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/27/boris-johnson-tempting-evil-revealing-ukrainian-soldiers-trained-poland?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Incidentally, Donbass is the Russian name, Ukranians use Donbas. A bit like Odessa and Odesa.
Everything Truss says should be judged with that objective in mind. Some people it seems are projecting their own preference (Russia not losing or being seen to lose) and judging her comments against that instead.
It's a tricky one for him. It's possible that a re-elected Macron may be more amenable to some sort of a deal but I wouldn't count on it.
Did you miss the last Strategic Defence Review?
It seems some people are unhappy with Truss because they want the UK to have different objectives, not because Truss isn't furthering our stated objectives.
And the Taiwan comment is simply nonsense on its face.
But, a frozen conflict is better than a hot one.
They DO matter. They matter because not since the Second World War has this country been asked to sacrifice so much. And all the while that f****** ar******* was partying in No.10.
Here it is from that article:
"The line from a recent focus group that stands out most for me is from a first-time Conservative voter. He despaired that “Margaret Thatcher would never have had those parties. She was strong and would have told them to stop”.
I am not sure Truss shares that aim
Piers Morgan, Vladimir Putin, and Boris Johnson.
The Taiwan comment is entirely appropriate and in line with our last defence review, as well as the AUKUS agreement and other policies.
If you don't like Britain's objectives because you want totalitarian dictatorships like Russia and China to be able to do as they please that's a different matter. It isn't British policy though.
Sence of proportion maybe a bit out of kilter there
I think we underestimate the possible cataclysm facing the tories if they stick with Johnson. This reminds me so much of 1997. For sure Starmer is no Blair but the economy and cost of living is 10000x worse than then.
Whether a Ukrainian counter-attack, after blunting the Russian offensive in the Donbas, would be successful is another matter, but it won't be for want of trying.
It seems to me that the risk of this war spreading beyond Ukraine are increasing almost daily. NATO countries initially gave "defensive" weapons which proved surprisingly effective, mainly due to Russian incompetence. Now they are supplying heavy weapons and potentially even aircraft to help Ukraine recover lost territory. We have had the economic warfare of sanctions and the retaliation yesterday of cutting off gas supplies. We have the possibility of violence spreading to Moldova. We have military build ups on all the bordering NATO countries and the nordic countries wanting access to NATO's nuclear shield. We may even have special forces in theatre, the Russians certainly think we do.
Step by step we are being dragged into direct conflict with Russia. The betting is that a rational opponent, even one facing defeat on the battlefield, will not go nuclear just as the US didn't in Vietnam. But we do not seem to be dealing with a rational opponent. We are dealing with a paranoid, evil, potentially sick lunatic and I think we need to be a bit more careful about what we say and do than we are at the moment.
A Russia that is outgunned in Ukraine risks losing not only the Donbas, but - once the Black Sea fleet is on the seabed with its flagship - losing Crimea too. So now might just be a good time to come to the negotiating table and get real.
Your view of how government should be conducted is as unserious as that of Truss. This isn't about policy disagreement.
What I said is that if the Troubles returned that would be sad but the threat of violence is not enough to overturn democracy. Democracy must come first.
I stand by that 100%. If you don't value democracy that would explain a lot.
I also think the decision of the Chinese drone manufacturer to stop selling in Russia and Ukraine is more important than many have realised. If the Chinese no longer want to sell civilian drones to Russia, because of their use in the war, then any prospect of them providing support in the form of military equipment would appear to be finished.
Maybe there's a lot of public bluster by Russia (possibly to spook Western public opinion so they put pressure on their politicians) but their real position is much more complex behind the scenes.
Actually as the article says the strategic outlook of NATO is being debated and the UK via Truss is saying that NATO should be involved with the Indo Pacific.
That is a sensible policy even if you dislike it and it is current British policy, not on the hoof.
The priorities have changed and your assertion may well be true now, but it wasn't always thus.
Besides the war and the inflation it's causing probably isn't good for China either. China is a major energy and raw resource importer not exporter, so with the way Russia is losing, why get involved helping them?
Rishi Sunak told Cabinet interest rates expected to increase to 2.5% as he warned against borrowing more to fund public spending
Sunak said homeowners could see mortgage payments rise by more than £1,000 if they are not on fixed rate deals
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-warns-more-pain-mortgage-bills-latest-uk-pstqtphnm
The difference between this and Vietnam is despite the cold warrior nonsense from Dulles and the like Vietnam was not a threat to the integrity of the US. Russia very much believes that it is not only under threat but being actively threatened by countries with contiguous land borders.
It has been demonstrated that their "reformed" army is good at beating up those who can't shoot back but absolutely hopeless against NATO equipped forces.They feel defenceless, hence the reference to nukes. The same logic that got the Americans to bomb and destroy Cambodia applies to Poland and other NATO countries. We are gravely underestimating the risks here.
While some in the West may have been OK with the conflict being contained inside Ukraine, that was never British policy. Which is precisely why Zelenskyy others (and even Putin) have said that Britain has been Ukraine's leading ally. It is why, with a different British government, the war might have turned out very differently. Putin wasn't expecting to fight NATO equipment and Britain has since the beginning provided a backbone that other western nations lacked. You may have expected Ukraine to fall within a week, but the British government didn't.
Boris 19 February: Russia 'must fail and be seen to fail' - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/19/russia-johnson-munich-security-conference-putin-ukraine
Boris 24 February: Putin 'must fail and be seen to fail' - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/feb/24/uk-politics-live-boris-johnson-sanctions-russia-invasion-ukraine-latest-updates
Putin began his attack at night and the next day Boris made a televised speech to the nation in which he said that Putin 'must fail and be seen to fail'.
That has been the British objective since day one. There is no secret about that.
British arguments about postal votes and ID requirements, are really rather quaint in comparison.
They are right to feel more threatened. But only in the way that you would feel more threatened if you went and glassed one of the fighters at a WWF convention....