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David Herdson selected to stand in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com
David Herdson selected to stand in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com
David Herdson, who for nearly a decade used to post the Saturday morning slot on PB, has been selected by the Yorkshire Party for the upcoming Wakefield by-election.
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"I’ve been following Boris’s local campaign trail – and Tory infatuation for him has really died.
They mutter; they scowl. In Essex, the spiritual home of the Johnsonite, a few hold out, but for the rest it’s over."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/04/26/following-boriss-local-campaign-trail-tory-infatuation-has/
"No one is more disenchanted with Boris Johnson than the Conservatives, his own party. That wall of silence emanating from the back benches is not a neutral thing, no matter what he tells himself. I listen to a lot of Tories – I cover by-elections – and they no longer twinkle when they talk about him as they used to do.
Their mouths turn downwards; they mutter; they scowl. In Essex, the spiritual home of the Johnsonite (rules exist to be broken) a few hold out. But for the rest of them, it’s over. They are disappointed, and this disappointment is deeper for its being largely with themselves: for their collusion in, and enabling of, the fantasy than is his political creed. Infatuation dies hard but fast, and the love affair is over."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/04/26/following-boriss-local-campaign-trail-tory-infatuation-has/
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/11/02/russian-military-forces-dazzle-after-a-decade-of-reform
Money quotes:
NATO will need to step up
In a war with NATO, Russia “would have conventional superiority for a limited period” ... For Russian generals, the hope is that their revived strength means that the nukes are never needed.
[NATO's] planners, and the national politicians that set military budgets and priorities, need to adjust their strategies and spending in the light of these new threats.
I am certain we are now experiencing the third.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/horse-racing/epsom-4th-jun-betting-31155327
Or rather, that is the price advertised. Whether they will strike a bet is left as an exercise for the reader.
They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.
It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
However, the big unknown is just how many of these disenchanted voters are willing to vote for Starmer and labour or just either abstain, vote lib dem or as in my case vote independent
*) Russia's performance against Ukraine since 2014 had been good (although AIUI the LOC had been pretty static for years.)
*) Russia was gaining lots of combat experience in Syria (sadly for them, it now appears they lost lots of material as well. They expended loads of missiles destroying cities there.)
*) Lots of shiny weapons that make you go "Oooohhh!" (But it appears they cannot make enough of them to make a difference.)
*) Russia had stacks of weapons and, in the last decade, a highly-trained force. (Now, it appears much of this was a lie - and they were lying to themselves as much as to the west. Their doctrine is stale.)
All in all, to an interested non-expert such as myself, it appeared the Russian military was in the best shape it had been since the fall of the USSR. I have been rapidly converted to the opposite point of view.
No elections in my part of Essex, but there are in Colchester, where I have to go early today. Doubt I'll see many posters, but if I do I'll report back later!
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/brexit-fuelling-cost-living-crisis-rishi-sunak-worse-1595738 https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1519196494628274176/photo/1
There’s more chance of ER winning this week’s tennis tournament!
As David H notes, Brexit has become an ideological goal for the Tories, irrespective of what damage it does to people's lives - in this case, driving up imported food costs.
Good luck to him in Wakefield, I hope he drives the Tories into a dismal third place.
I think the difference with 1997 is that then you had both the disenchantment AND the genuine excitement about Tony Blair's New Labour.
This time there's the disenchantment but I'm not sure there's as yet much love for, or excitement about, Starmer. I still think it's a sea change we are witnessing and it may be that the lack of enthusiasm about Labour reflects the times: we have been through a pretty hellish period. It may be that 'a serious leader for serious times' works for one election.
p.s. I also think Starmer is fundamentally a decent person. If the Conservatives do ditch Boris then I really think they should make it a priority to have someone who is decent. It will help purge the past and let them move on. Starmer has almost detoxified Labour in two years so it IS possible.
I'd have thought they'd take two Tory votes for every one Labour vote tbh.
I assume they’re anti-Brexit as that’s clearly a big issue for David. But other than that, I know little about them.
If I were Labour, I wouldn’t welcome wildcards like Herdson. Sure, he could get second making it a terrrrrible night for the Tories, but it’s much more important that Labour wins. Having a potential none of the above option like the Lib Dems were in North Shropshire, is not ideal.
The whole article is far more nuanced than that and actually affirms benefits the UK has received by leaving the EU
In 2019 many of these Tories reluctantly voted for the party because the alternative was Corbyn who was truly repugnant. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will do so again. I personally have always been a one nation Tory, or a wet as Maggie used to call them. I did think it was important for our democracy that the decision of the British people, having been asked, be honoured and the shameful behaviour of the remainer Parliament needed a very strong response but the aubsequent failure to bind the wounds, to find consensus, to bring people back into the tent is going to cost the Tory party dear, and not just in terms of votes. It is a failure of leadership.
I don't know how long that will take.
https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/1519008274871422980?t=d3Aib2aGsKaNxi9VIqYaTw&s=19
British Airways moves to SPAIN in desperate bid to fight staff shortages - Brexit going well isn’t it? https://t.co/l03rcFCN1i
How very damning....
https://www.yorkshireparty.org.uk/
Sound like a sensible bunch.
Your project is a shitshow.
You won.
Suck it up.
Much has been written about the decline in support for traditional parties of the centre-left, but there are forms of populism, revolving around green issues, equity and wealth redistribution, that it is relatively easy for the left as a whole to build from. The big political weakness of the centre-right is that it actively rejects populism in favour of pragmatism and competence. Its calling card has to be actual performance and you only get to show that off when in power. Given the national route is currently out of the question, it has to be done regionally. So, what David and the Yorkshire party are doing makes total sense.
David is a great candidate for Wakefield because he knows the constituency and its voters backwards. My guess is that he has a very good chance of securing a fair few 2019 Tory and UKIP voters, but will get less support from Labour supporters, actual and potential. Third place looks nailed on, second is a possibility. However, I am not sure I'd be betting on first, whatever the odds!
But they also say that it's too early to draw any firm conclusions.
In many cases, the jobs can just move elsewhere.
And I voted remain
Get a life
You are free to disagree, but that's not Scott's fault. Maybe you should take you own advice, pause your vendetta with Scott, and reread the article.
Who do they think funds the Treasury?
If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
I have been thinking about this quite a lot. My provisional view is that this has been a consequence of a lack of ideology in politics. The broadly capitalist but state interventionist, rather more mercantile view of politics has won pretty much everywhere in the west. It is under threat from the rise of autarkies and dictatorships in other parts of the world but none of those offer a model that has even a remotely significant following in the west. In the absence of ideology personality has come to the fore. This creates extreme partisanship in favour or against the chosen one. Western political parties are really struggling to come to terms with this and institutions which have been a bedrock of our democratic system for many decades at least have been proven to be surprisingly fragile. Our democracy is vulnerable right now.
I do not have a vendetta but it is perfectly reasonable to challenge his posts
But you and other sore losers won't stop whinging about it. That's the only negative, you are the Faragists du jour.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/17/ba-begins-to-carry-out-its-fire-and-rehire-threat-to-jobs
They’ve set up the Madrid base, because they can’t find enough CC to work for minimum wage in the UK any more.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/
If it's not a vendetta, it's an obsession
It is going to be a struggle for the Tories to demonstrate Brexit benefits in GE 2024. Voters are an impatient bunch and won't wait 50 years for their unicorns.
I won't be voting Tory again until the party goes back to a Heathite European policy. I don't expect that any time soon.
So they have my business for a while.
None of the main parties deserve our vote at the minute. David would be interesting.
It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
I know of one airline who made redundant 500 £200k/yr A380 captains during the pandemic. Now many of these have relocated, often to different countries. Many of them have retired or found other employment, either within the industry or elsewhere, and are now not interested in coming back for £150k as the demand returns. A380 captains don’t grow on trees!
Suck it up.
Loser.
Worth noting before anyone foolishly tries to claim that one is causing the other that inflation is even higher in the Eurozone than it is in the UK.
You cannot dramatically increase spending on health, social and care costs without increasing taxes
While there are small dissident groups ranging from Marxists, to Islamist, or radical Greens that contest the Capitalist Consumerist status quo, there is no ideology that is a real threat to it, depite the validity of many of the criticisms.
...Another report, published by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe on Wednesday, found that trade barriers on imports from the EU have led to a 6% increase in food prices in the UK. Products with high EU import shares such as fresh pork, tomatoes and jams were more affected than those with low EU import shares such as tuna and exotic fruits like pineapple....
As I said, disagree with the study all you like (I'm not arguing it's correct), but your criticism of Scott on this point is simply wrong.
And now we both suffer.
Why aren't you happy?
On the North American routes, they’re one of the better airlines - but they have a lot more competition heading East from London, with the ME and Asian carriers being a class above, especially in the premium cabins.
Ukraine repeatedly win the PR battle and lose the actual battle. They had the 'Fuck Yourself' meme and the stamps, etc. about Snake Island but the actual result is they lost the island (which controls access to the Danube) and are not capable of getting it back.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519201157897502720
73% of Americans support the US efforts to supply weapons to Ukraine, highest level since Russian invasion - Reuters/Ipsos poll
Some 46% of Americans - including 70% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans - approve of Biden's performance on Ukraine
How long will it take before 20k wives and mothers realise that their husbands and sons aren’t coming back, and how long before tens of thousands more troops do come back with injuries and stories?
Of course they won't.
Me for @ConHome on the demise of Brand Boris - and whether the wider Conservative Party will now share the same fate: https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2022/04/james-johnson-the-polling-is-clear-johnson-is-now-a-fatal-drag-on-conservative-fortunes.html