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David Herdson selected to stand in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 3 in General
imageDavid Herdson selected to stand in Wakefield – politicalbetting.com

David Herdson, who for nearly a decade used to post the Saturday morning slot on PB, has been selected by the Yorkshire Party for the upcoming Wakefield by-election.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,167
    First?????
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Good morning, everyone, and good luck to Mr. Herdson. I fear he faces quite the challenge.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522
    Good luck Mr Herdson!!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 27
    Gosh what a damning article for Boris in The Daily Telegraph.

    "I’ve been following Boris’s local campaign trail – and Tory infatuation for him has really died.
    They mutter; they scowl. In Essex, the spiritual home of the Johnsonite, a few hold out, but for the rest it’s over."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/04/26/following-boriss-local-campaign-trail-tory-infatuation-has/

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Sandpit said:

    Fourth like, err, David Herdson?

    Ouch

    :neutral:
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,563
    Given the bizarre results that often happen in these elections, 42/1 sounds like pretty good odds to me, given they started from 12% in the mayoral election.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Blimey this is damning:

    "No one is more disenchanted with Boris Johnson than the Conservatives, his own party. That wall of silence emanating from the back benches is not a neutral thing, no matter what he tells himself. I listen to a lot of Tories – I cover by-elections – and they no longer twinkle when they talk about him as they used to do.

    Their mouths turn downwards; they mutter; they scowl. In Essex, the spiritual home of the Johnsonite (rules exist to be broken) a few hold out. But for the rest of them, it’s over. They are disappointed, and this disappointment is deeper for its being largely with themselves: for their collusion in, and enabling of, the fantasy than is his political creed. Infatuation dies hard but fast, and the love affair is over."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/04/26/following-boriss-local-campaign-trail-tory-infatuation-has/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,749
    Congrats. and good luck to David.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,563
    By the way, here is a paywalled article that hasn't aged well:

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/11/02/russian-military-forces-dazzle-after-a-decade-of-reform

    Money quotes:

    NATO will need to step up

    In a war with NATO, Russia “would have conventional superiority for a limited period” ... For Russian generals, the hope is that their revived strength means that the nukes are never needed.

    [NATO's] planners, and the national politicians that set military budgets and priorities, need to adjust their strategies and spending in the light of these new threats.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 27
    I've lived through two sea changes in UK political life: 1979 and 1997.

    I am certain we are now experiencing the third.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    The Yorkshire Party should contact Betfair with a view to being added to their Wakefield by-election market.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/horse-racing/epsom-4th-jun-betting-31155327
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Mr Herdson can be backed at 100/1 with Ladbrokes.

    Or rather, that is the price advertised. Whether they will strike a bet is left as an exercise for the reader.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    FPT:
    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited April 27
    Heathener said:

    Blimey this is damning:

    "No one is more disenchanted with Boris Johnson than the Conservatives, his own party. That wall of silence emanating from the back benches is not a neutral thing, no matter what he tells himself. I listen to a lot of Tories – I cover by-elections – and they no longer twinkle when they talk about him as they used to do.

    Their mouths turn downwards; they mutter; they scowl. In Essex, the spiritual home of the Johnsonite (rules exist to be broken) a few hold out. But for the rest of them, it’s over. They are disappointed, and this disappointment is deeper for its being largely with themselves: for their collusion in, and enabling of, the fantasy than is his political creed. Infatuation dies hard but fast, and the love affair is over."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/04/26/following-boriss-local-campaign-trail-tory-infatuation-has/

    I am sure that article is correct and if the may election results reflect that attitude then I stand by my prediction Boris will be gone by the 31st May

    However, the big unknown is just how many of these disenchanted voters are willing to vote for Starmer and labour or just either abstain, vote lib dem or as in my case vote independent
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    The irony, of course, is that a strong showing by Mr Herdson may help the Tories.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,749
    Fishing said:

    By the way, here is a paywalled article that hasn't aged well:

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/11/02/russian-military-forces-dazzle-after-a-decade-of-reform

    Money quotes:

    NATO will need to step up

    In a war with NATO, Russia “would have conventional superiority for a limited period” ... For Russian generals, the hope is that their revived strength means that the nukes are never needed.

    [NATO's] planners, and the national politicians that set military budgets and priorities, need to adjust their strategies and spending in the light of these new threats.

    Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, I'd probably have agreed with a lot of that article, for several reasons:

    *) Russia's performance against Ukraine since 2014 had been good (although AIUI the LOC had been pretty static for years.)

    *) Russia was gaining lots of combat experience in Syria (sadly for them, it now appears they lost lots of material as well. They expended loads of missiles destroying cities there.)

    *) Lots of shiny weapons that make you go "Oooohhh!" (But it appears they cannot make enough of them to make a difference.)

    *) Russia had stacks of weapons and, in the last decade, a highly-trained force. (Now, it appears much of this was a lie - and they were lying to themselves as much as to the west. Their doctrine is stale.)

    All in all, to an interested non-expert such as myself, it appeared the Russian military was in the best shape it had been since the fall of the USSR. I have been rapidly converted to the opposite point of view.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,958

    Mr Herdson can be backed at 100/1 with Ladbrokes.

    Or rather, that is the price advertised. Whether they will strike a bet is left as an exercise for the reader.

    Not only will they take such a bet, but you can boost it up to 130-1.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Mornin' all!
    No elections in my part of Essex, but there are in Colchester, where I have to go early today. Doubt I'll see many posters, but if I do I'll report back later!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Cookie said:

    Mr Herdson can be backed at 100/1 with Ladbrokes.

    Or rather, that is the price advertised. Whether they will strike a bet is left as an exercise for the reader.

    Not only will they take such a bet, but you can boost it up to 130-1.
    Ladbrokes are running scared of me so I did not try but good luck.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fourth like, err, David Herdson?

    Ouch

    :neutral:
    Best of luck to him of course, but he’s 100/1 and the fight will be between Con and Lab for the win - his first target will be to get his deposit returned.

    There’s more chance of ER winning this week’s tennis tournament! :tongue:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 27

    Heathener said:

    Blimey this is damning:

    "No one is more disenchanted with Boris Johnson than the Conservatives, his own party. That wall of silence emanating from the back benches is not a neutral thing, no matter what he tells himself. I listen to a lot of Tories – I cover by-elections – and they no longer twinkle when they talk about him as they used to do.

    Their mouths turn downwards; they mutter; they scowl. In Essex, the spiritual home of the Johnsonite (rules exist to be broken) a few hold out. But for the rest of them, it’s over. They are disappointed, and this disappointment is deeper for its being largely with themselves: for their collusion in, and enabling of, the fantasy than is his political creed. Infatuation dies hard but fast, and the love affair is over."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/04/26/following-boriss-local-campaign-trail-tory-infatuation-has/

    I am sure that article is correct and if the may election results reflect that attitude then I stand by my prediction Boris will be gone by the 31st May

    However, the big unknown is just how many of these disenchanted voters are willing to vote for Starmer and labour or just either abstain, vote lib dem or as in my case vote independent
    Yep, I don't disagree with any of that.

    I think the difference with 1997 is that then you had both the disenchantment AND the genuine excitement about Tony Blair's New Labour.

    This time there's the disenchantment but I'm not sure there's as yet much love for, or excitement about, Starmer. I still think it's a sea change we are witnessing and it may be that the lack of enthusiasm about Labour reflects the times: we have been through a pretty hellish period. It may be that 'a serious leader for serious times' works for one election.

    p.s. I also think Starmer is fundamentally a decent person. If the Conservatives do ditch Boris then I really think they should make it a priority to have someone who is decent. It will help purge the past and let them move on. Starmer has almost detoxified Labour in two years so it IS possible.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,222
    Just got 66/1 on Yorkshire Party in Wakefield (William Hill).... at last tasty odds.... Trouble is David will need a more than a bit of oomph... good luck to him.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,563

    Fishing said:

    By the way, here is a paywalled article that hasn't aged well:

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/11/02/russian-military-forces-dazzle-after-a-decade-of-reform

    Money quotes:

    NATO will need to step up

    In a war with NATO, Russia “would have conventional superiority for a limited period” ... For Russian generals, the hope is that their revived strength means that the nukes are never needed.

    [NATO's] planners, and the national politicians that set military budgets and priorities, need to adjust their strategies and spending in the light of these new threats.

    Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, I'd probably have agreed with a lot of that article, for several reasons:

    *) Russia's performance against Ukraine since 2014 had been good (although AIUI the LOC had been pretty static for years.)

    *) Russia was gaining lots of combat experience in Syria (sadly for them, it now appears they lost lots of material as well. They expended loads of missiles destroying cities there.)

    *) Lots of shiny weapons that make you go "Oooohhh!" (But it appears they cannot make enough of them to make a difference.)

    *) Russia had stacks of weapons and, in the last decade, a highly-trained force. (Now, it appears much of this was a lie - and they were lying to themselves as much as to the west. Their doctrine is stale.)

    All in all, to an interested non-expert such as myself, it appeared the Russian military was in the best shape it had been since the fall of the USSR. I have been rapidly converted to the opposite point of view.
    Both points of view could be right - it could be in the best shape since 1991 but still rubbish in many important ways. And indeed, I think they probably were.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,799
    edited April 27
    tlg86 said:

    The irony, of course, is that a strong showing by Mr Herdson may help the Tories.

    Geniune question: is the Yorkshire Party anything other than the unofficial Yorkshire branch of the Tories that has gone a bit native? Are their national policies much different?

    I'd have thought they'd take two Tory votes for every one Labour vote tbh.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394

    tlg86 said:

    The irony, of course, is that a strong showing by Mr Herdson may help the Tories.

    Geniune question: is the Yorkshire Party anything other than the unofficial Yorkshire branch of the Tories that gone a bit native? Are their national policies much different?

    I'd have thought they'd take two Tory votes for every one Labour vote tbh.
    Well they’re clearly not the BNP in disguise!

    I assume they’re anti-Brexit as that’s clearly a big issue for David. But other than that, I know little about them.

    If I were Labour, I wouldn’t welcome wildcards like Herdson. Sure, he could get second making it a terrrrrible night for the Tories, but it’s much more important that Labour wins. Having a potential none of the above option like the Lib Dems were in North Shropshire, is not ideal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420

    Just got 66/1 on Yorkshire Party in Wakefield (William Hill).... at last tasty odds.... Trouble is David will need a more than a bit of oomph... good luck to him.

    Still 130/1 with odds boost at Ladbrokes, though I think DH will be lucky to save his deposit.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    So endanger children by not needing any staff and save 20 quid a year on MOT, they really are the brains trust right enough. Means utility bills only an extra £980 , whoopee.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420

    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
    It does say that. The analysis tries to seperate out covid and war effects from brexit ones by looking at different items. Pork vs poneapples for example.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    All the best to David.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited April 27
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
    It does say that. The analysis tries to seperate out covid and war effects from brexit ones by looking at different items. Pork vs poneapples for example.
    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The whole article is far more nuanced than that and actually affirms benefits the UK has received by leaving the EU
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,638
    One of the skills of a poltical leader is to hold different sttrands of the party together in a coalition broad enough to win a majority. On these boards we have @david_herdson, @Richard_Nabavi and @TSE as well as, no doubt many others, who are life long Conservatives who have walked away. Boris has shown almost no interest in chasing them or wooing them back. His brutal but effective decapitations of the remainer wing of the Tories before the 2019 election remains his last word on the matter.

    In 2019 many of these Tories reluctantly voted for the party because the alternative was Corbyn who was truly repugnant. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will do so again. I personally have always been a one nation Tory, or a wet as Maggie used to call them. I did think it was important for our democracy that the decision of the British people, having been asked, be honoured and the shameful behaviour of the remainer Parliament needed a very strong response but the aubsequent failure to bind the wounds, to find consensus, to bring people back into the tent is going to cost the Tory party dear, and not just in terms of votes. It is a failure of leadership.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The journalist that sent the tweet that I posted said that. take it up with him
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    DavidL said:

    One of the skills of a poltical leader is to hold different sttrands of the party together in a coalition broad enough to win a majority. On these boards we have @david_herdson, @Richard_Nabavi and @TSE as well as, no doubt many others, who are life long Conservatives who have walked away. Boris has shown almost no interest in chasing them or wooing them back. His brutal but effective decapitations of the remainer wing of the Tories before the 2019 election remains his last word on the matter.

    In 2019 many of these Tories reluctantly voted for the party because the alternative was Corbyn who was truly repugnant. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will do so again. I personally have always been a one nation Tory, or a wet as Maggie used to call them. I did think it was important for our democracy that the decision of the British people, having been asked, be honoured and the shameful behaviour of the remainer Parliament needed a very strong response but the aubsequent failure to bind the wounds, to find consensus, to bring people back into the tent is going to cost the Tory party dear, and not just in terms of votes. It is a failure of leadership.

    I agree and sadly I think Boris won't go until the Tories are in opposition again and they can rebuild from there.

    I don't know how long that will take.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    Getting in ahead of @Scott_xP 🙂

    https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/1519008274871422980?t=d3Aib2aGsKaNxi9VIqYaTw&s=19

    British Airways moves to SPAIN in desperate bid to fight staff shortages - Brexit going well isn’t it? https://t.co/l03rcFCN1i
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    DavidL said:

    One of the skills of a poltical leader is to hold different sttrands of the party together in a coalition broad enough to win a majority. On these boards we have @david_herdson, @Richard_Nabavi and @TSE as well as, no doubt many others, who are life long Conservatives who have walked away. Boris has shown almost no interest in chasing them or wooing them back. His brutal but effective decapitations of the remainer wing of the Tories before the 2019 election remains his last word on the matter.

    In 2019 many of these Tories reluctantly voted for the party because the alternative was Corbyn who was truly repugnant. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will do so again. I personally have always been a one nation Tory, or a wet as Maggie used to call them. I did think it was important for our democracy that the decision of the British people, having been asked, be honoured and the shameful behaviour of the remainer Parliament needed a very strong response but the aubsequent failure to bind the wounds, to find consensus, to bring people back into the tent is going to cost the Tory party dear, and not just in terms of votes. It is a failure of leadership.

    Very much on the same page and Boris's mps need to act sooner rather than later
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    The irony, of course, is that a strong showing by Mr Herdson may help the Tories.

    Geniune question: is the Yorkshire Party anything other than the unofficial Yorkshire branch of the Tories that gone a bit native? Are their national policies much different?

    I'd have thought they'd take two Tory votes for every one Labour vote tbh.
    Well they’re clearly not the BNP in disguise!

    I assume they’re anti-Brexit as that’s clearly a big issue for David. But other than that, I know little about them.

    If I were Labour, I wouldn’t welcome wildcards like Herdson. Sure, he could get second making it a terrrrrible night for the Tories, but it’s much more important that Labour wins. Having a potential none of the above option like the Lib Dems were in North Shropshire, is not ideal.
    Their policies can be found here:
    https://www.yorkshireparty.org.uk/

    Sound like a sensible bunch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Scott_xP said:

    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The journalist that sent the tweet that I posted said that. take it up with him
    If you re tweet any post then you are equally responsible for any misleading headlines
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    edited April 27
    Foxy said:

    Getting in ahead of @Scott_xP 🙂

    https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/1519008274871422980?t=d3Aib2aGsKaNxi9VIqYaTw&s=19

    British Airways moves to SPAIN in desperate bid to fight staff shortages - Brexit going well isn’t it? https://t.co/l03rcFCN1i

    They did a “P&O” on their cabin crew during the pandemic, and now can’t find any recruits as demand returns. Little to do with the EU, and more to do with terrible management by the company.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Wow, the Brexiteers are really wound up this morning.

    Your project is a shitshow.

    You won.

    Suck it up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Foxy said:

    Getting in ahead of @Scott_xP 🙂

    https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/1519008274871422980?t=d3Aib2aGsKaNxi9VIqYaTw&s=19

    British Airways moves to SPAIN in desperate bid to fight staff shortages - Brexit going well isn’t it? https://t.co/l03rcFCN1i

    From that article local pay rates are cheaper in Spanish
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,563
    edited April 27

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
    It does say that. The analysis tries to seperate out covid and war effects from brexit ones by looking at different items. Pork vs poneapples for example.
    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The whole article is far more nuanced than that and actually affirms benefits the UK has received by leaving the EU
    I read the LSE study on which the article is based. Though the authors clearly don't like Brexit, they do say that exports to the EU have held broadly steady, apart from a blip in the first month of the TCA. Reading between the lines, they are completely baffled as to why exports have held up while imports have fallen so sharply, as am I. They offer three rather lame explanations and show no sign of being convinced by any of them.

    But they also say that it's too early to draw any firm conclusions.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. Observer, slicing England into pieces instead of giving it a Parliament corresponding to Holyrood is not acceptable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    EXCLUSIVE: Labour has built up a 27-point lead over the Tories in London ahead of the town hall elections on May 5, a new poll reveals on Wednesday. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-elections-may-2022-labour-lead-conservatives-poll-b996500.html https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1519208249622507521/photo/1
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482

    Foxy said:

    Getting in ahead of @Scott_xP 🙂

    https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status/1519008274871422980?t=d3Aib2aGsKaNxi9VIqYaTw&s=19

    British Airways moves to SPAIN in desperate bid to fight staff shortages - Brexit going well isn’t it? https://t.co/l03rcFCN1i

    From that article local pay rates are cheaper in Spanish
    Highlights a problem with the "back Brexit to stop them doing our jobs cheaply" approach, though.

    In many cases, the jobs can just move elsewhere.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited April 27
    Scott_xP said:

    Wow, the Brexiteers are really wound up this morning.

    Your project is a shitshow.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    Seems you do not like it when you tweet misleading information

    And I voted remain
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    Seems you do not like it when you tweet

    I didn't tweet it

    Get a life
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
    It does say that. The analysis tries to seperate out covid and war effects from brexit ones by looking at different items. Pork vs poneapples for example.
    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The whole article is far more nuanced than that and actually affirms benefits the UK has received by leaving the EU
    There is a paragraph in the article which says precisely that.
    You are free to disagree, but that's not Scott's fault. Maybe you should take you own advice, pause your vendetta with Scott, and reread the article.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202

    Moderate, pro-business, liberals on the centre-right, who value the UK's traditional parliamentary democracy, people just like like David Herdson (and Richard Nabavi), were made politically homeless when the Conservative and Unionist party surrendered to English nationalist populism. It seems to me that the way back for them is in the kind of regionalism that the Yorkshire party represents. Andy Street - a Johnsonian Tory in name only - in the West Midlands and, potentially, Rory Stewart in London, are something similar.

    Much has been written about the decline in support for traditional parties of the centre-left, but there are forms of populism, revolving around green issues, equity and wealth redistribution, that it is relatively easy for the left as a whole to build from. The big political weakness of the centre-right is that it actively rejects populism in favour of pragmatism and competence. Its calling card has to be actual performance and you only get to show that off when in power. Given the national route is currently out of the question, it has to be done regionally. So, what David and the Yorkshire party are doing makes total sense.

    David is a great candidate for Wakefield because he knows the constituency and its voters backwards. My guess is that he has a very good chance of securing a fair few 2019 Tory and UKIP voters, but will get less support from Labour supporters, actual and potential. Third place looks nailed on, second is a possibility. However, I am not sure I'd be betting on first, whatever the odds!

    If I were in the constituency I'd lend him my vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    Best of luck to David at the Wakefield by-election. We could do with more MPs from outside the main parties.
  • Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,638

    DavidL said:

    One of the skills of a poltical leader is to hold different sttrands of the party together in a coalition broad enough to win a majority. On these boards we have @david_herdson, @Richard_Nabavi and @TSE as well as, no doubt many others, who are life long Conservatives who have walked away. Boris has shown almost no interest in chasing them or wooing them back. His brutal but effective decapitations of the remainer wing of the Tories before the 2019 election remains his last word on the matter.

    In 2019 many of these Tories reluctantly voted for the party because the alternative was Corbyn who was truly repugnant. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will do so again. I personally have always been a one nation Tory, or a wet as Maggie used to call them. I did think it was important for our democracy that the decision of the British people, having been asked, be honoured and the shameful behaviour of the remainer Parliament needed a very strong response but the aubsequent failure to bind the wounds, to find consensus, to bring people back into the tent is going to cost the Tory party dear, and not just in terms of votes. It is a failure of leadership.

    I agree and sadly I think Boris won't go until the Tories are in opposition again and they can rebuild from there.

    I don't know how long that will take.
    A major part of the problem is the increase of populism in western politics. We see the same problem in the US with Trump. A really strong brand like Boris or Trump seems able to take over a party and destroy the consenses and collegiality that had held it together.

    I have been thinking about this quite a lot. My provisional view is that this has been a consequence of a lack of ideology in politics. The broadly capitalist but state interventionist, rather more mercantile view of politics has won pretty much everywhere in the west. It is under threat from the rise of autarkies and dictatorships in other parts of the world but none of those offer a model that has even a remotely significant following in the west. In the absence of ideology personality has come to the fore. This creates extreme partisanship in favour or against the chosen one. Western political parties are really struggling to come to terms with this and institutions which have been a bedrock of our democratic system for many decades at least have been proven to be surprisingly fragile. Our democracy is vulnerable right now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
    It does say that. The analysis tries to seperate out covid and war effects from brexit ones by looking at different items. Pork vs poneapples for example.
    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The whole article is far more nuanced than that and actually affirms benefits the UK has received by leaving the EU
    There is a paragraph in the article which says precisely that.
    You are free to disagree, but that's not Scott's fault. Maybe you should take you own advice, pause your vendetta with Scott, and reread the article.
    I have read the article and as I have said it is far more nuanced than @Scott_xP post

    I do not have a vendetta but it is perfectly reasonable to challenge his posts
  • Scott_xP said:

    Wow, the Brexiteers are really wound up this morning.

    Your project is a shitshow.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    The project is going great.

    But you and other sore losers won't stop whinging about it. That's the only negative, you are the Faragists du jour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    Background on British Airways: they did a ‘fire and rehire’ on hundreds of cabin crew during the pandemic, and are now complaining they’re short-staffed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/17/ba-begins-to-carry-out-its-fire-and-rehire-threat-to-jobs

    They’ve set up the Madrid base, because they can’t find enough CC to work for minimum wage in the UK any more.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881

    Mr. Observer, slicing England into pieces instead of giving it a Parliament corresponding to Holyrood is not acceptable.

    Who's talking about slicing England up into pieces? Regional parties could play a very strong role in an English Parliament.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Good luck David, although obviously hope it is a Conservative hold so do well but not too well
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    I do not have a vendetta

    You mention me explicitly more than any other poster on the site.

    If it's not a vendetta, it's an obsession
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    The irony, of course, is that a strong showing by Mr Herdson may help the Tories.

    Geniune question: is the Yorkshire Party anything other than the unofficial Yorkshire branch of the Tories that gone a bit native? Are their national policies much different?

    I'd have thought they'd take two Tory votes for every one Labour vote tbh.
    Well they’re clearly not the BNP in disguise!

    I assume they’re anti-Brexit as that’s clearly a big issue for David. But other than that, I know little about them.

    If I were Labour, I wouldn’t welcome wildcards like Herdson. Sure, he could get second making it a terrrrrible night for the Tories, but it’s much more important that Labour wins. Having a potential none of the above option like the Lib Dems were in North Shropshire, is not ideal.
    Their policies can be found here:
    https://www.yorkshireparty.org.uk/

    Sound like a sensible bunch.
    I couldn't see mention of Brexit either way. It looks like a non-issue for the YP.

    It is going to be a struggle for the Tories to demonstrate Brexit benefits in GE 2024. Voters are an impatient bunch and won't wait 50 years for their unicorns.

    I won't be voting Tory again until the party goes back to a Heathite European policy. I don't expect that any time soon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Labour has built up a 27-point lead over the Tories in London ahead of the town hall elections on May 5, a new poll reveals on Wednesday. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-elections-may-2022-labour-lead-conservatives-poll-b996500.html https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1519208249622507521/photo/1

    Suggests Wandsworth and Barnet will go Labour but the Tories will hold Westminster and Hillingdon
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,563
    edited April 27
    Sandpit said:

    Background on British Airways: they did a ‘fire and rehire’ on hundreds of cabin crew during the pandemic, and are now complaining they’re short-staffed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/17/ba-begins-to-carry-out-its-fire-and-rehire-threat-to-jobs

    They’ve set up the Madrid base, because they can’t find enough CC to work for minimum wage in the UK any more.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/

    I flew to Canada recently on BA and though there were lots of nagging annoucements about wearing masks, they didn't whine when I (and about 10% of the other pax) didn't.

    So they have my business for a while.
  • Nigelb said:

    Moderate, pro-business, liberals on the centre-right, who value the UK's traditional parliamentary democracy, people just like like David Herdson (and Richard Nabavi), were made politically homeless when the Conservative and Unionist party surrendered to English nationalist populism. It seems to me that the way back for them is in the kind of regionalism that the Yorkshire party represents. Andy Street - a Johnsonian Tory in name only - in the West Midlands and, potentially, Rory Stewart in London, are something similar.

    Much has been written about the decline in support for traditional parties of the centre-left, but there are forms of populism, revolving around green issues, equity and wealth redistribution, that it is relatively easy for the left as a whole to build from. The big political weakness of the centre-right is that it actively rejects populism in favour of pragmatism and competence. Its calling card has to be actual performance and you only get to show that off when in power. Given the national route is currently out of the question, it has to be done regionally. So, what David and the Yorkshire party are doing makes total sense.

    David is a great candidate for Wakefield because he knows the constituency and its voters backwards. My guess is that he has a very good chance of securing a fair few 2019 Tory and UKIP voters, but will get less support from Labour supporters, actual and potential. Third place looks nailed on, second is a possibility. However, I am not sure I'd be betting on first, whatever the odds!

    If I were in the constituency I'd lend him my vote.
    As much as I disagree with him over Brexit (which is now done), so would I.

    None of the main parties deserve our vote at the minute. David would be interesting.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,665
    Sandpit said:

    Background on British Airways: they did a ‘fire and rehire’ on hundreds of cabin crew during the pandemic, and are now complaining they’re short-staffed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/17/ba-begins-to-carry-out-its-fire-and-rehire-threat-to-jobs

    They’ve set up the Madrid base, because they can’t find enough CC to work for minimum wage in the UK any more.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/

    Many will have found jobs outside aviation. Spoke to a few ex-BA staff during lockdown who were happy to find jobs where they could spend more time with their families, or just pursue a different direction. Inertia being what it is, many may have stayed where they were if BA had kept them on furlough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420

    Mr. Observer, slicing England into pieces instead of giving it a Parliament corresponding to Holyrood is not acceptable.

    Well, some of us don't have problem with devolution to regions. In England these are most appropriately the historic counties, most of which have populations similar to devolved or independent countries elsewhere.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,255

    Scott_xP said:

    Wow, the Brexiteers are really wound up this morning.

    Your project is a shitshow.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    The project is going great.

    But you and other sore losers won't stop whinging about it. That's the only negative, you are the Faragists du jour.
    Show you average Red Wall seat an improvement which can be put down to Brexit?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    edited April 27

    Sandpit said:

    Background on British Airways: they did a ‘fire and rehire’ on hundreds of cabin crew during the pandemic, and are now complaining they’re short-staffed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/17/ba-begins-to-carry-out-its-fire-and-rehire-threat-to-jobs

    They’ve set up the Madrid base, because they can’t find enough CC to work for minimum wage in the UK any more.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/

    Many will have found jobs outside aviation. Spoke to a few ex-BA staff during lockdown who were happy to find jobs where they could spend more time with their families, or just pursue a different direction. Inertia being what it is, many may have stayed where they were if BA had kept them on furlough.
    Indeed. It’s a job where they sell the dream rather than the reality.

    I know of one airline who made redundant 500 £200k/yr A380 captains during the pandemic. Now many of these have relocated, often to different countries. Many of them have retired or found other employment, either within the industry or elsewhere, and are now not interested in coming back for £150k as the demand returns. A380 captains don’t grow on trees!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Scott_xP said:

    Wow, the Brexiteers are really wound up this morning.

    Your project is a shitshow.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    You are the one that has been wound up for six years by a "lie" written in the side of a bus.

    Suck it up.

    Loser.

  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wow, the Brexiteers are really wound up this morning.

    Your project is a shitshow.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    The project is going great.

    But you and other sore losers won't stop whinging about it. That's the only negative, you are the Faragists du jour.
    Show you average Red Wall seat an improvement which can be put down to Brexit?
    Many are finding their labour is in high demand so are getting their highest pay rises in many years, which is fortuitous when the cost of living is going up so fast.

    Worth noting before anyone foolishly tries to claim that one is causing the other that inflation is even higher in the Eurozone than it is in the UK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Scott_xP said:

    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The journalist that sent the tweet that I posted said that. take it up with him
    If you re tweet any post then you are equally responsible for any misleading headlines
    Quite a few of us post tweets of interest without necessarily agreeing with the tweet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    Not sure about triple lock but my state pension rose by 3.1% this month

    You cannot dramatically increase spending on health, social and care costs without increasing taxes
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,801
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the skills of a poltical leader is to hold different sttrands of the party together in a coalition broad enough to win a majority. On these boards we have @david_herdson, @Richard_Nabavi and @TSE as well as, no doubt many others, who are life long Conservatives who have walked away. Boris has shown almost no interest in chasing them or wooing them back. His brutal but effective decapitations of the remainer wing of the Tories before the 2019 election remains his last word on the matter.

    In 2019 many of these Tories reluctantly voted for the party because the alternative was Corbyn who was truly repugnant. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will do so again. I personally have always been a one nation Tory, or a wet as Maggie used to call them. I did think it was important for our democracy that the decision of the British people, having been asked, be honoured and the shameful behaviour of the remainer Parliament needed a very strong response but the aubsequent failure to bind the wounds, to find consensus, to bring people back into the tent is going to cost the Tory party dear, and not just in terms of votes. It is a failure of leadership.

    I agree and sadly I think Boris won't go until the Tories are in opposition again and they can rebuild from there.

    I don't know how long that will take.
    A major part of the problem is the increase of populism in western politics. We see the same problem in the US with Trump. A really strong brand like Boris or Trump seems able to take over a party and destroy the consenses and collegiality that had held it together.

    I have been thinking about this quite a lot. My provisional view is that this has been a consequence of a lack of ideology in politics. The broadly capitalist but state interventionist, rather more mercantile view of politics has won pretty much everywhere in the west. It is under threat from the rise of autarkies and dictatorships in other parts of the world but none of those offer a model that has even a remotely significant following in the west. In the absence of ideology personality has come to the fore. This creates extreme partisanship in favour or against the chosen one. Western political parties are really struggling to come to terms with this and institutions which have been a bedrock of our democratic system for many decades at least have been proven to be surprisingly fragile. Our democracy is vulnerable right now.
    Yes, I think that so. Fukuyama's End of History is more an internal one than an international one.

    While there are small dissident groups ranging from Marxists, to Islamist, or radical Greens that contest the Capitalist Consumerist status quo, there is no ideology that is a real threat to it, depite the validity of many of the criticisms.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe you should read the article because it does not say that
    It does say that. The analysis tries to seperate out covid and war effects from brexit ones by looking at different items. Pork vs poneapples for example.
    @Scott_xP said brexit has caused a 6% rise in food prices

    The whole article is far more nuanced than that and actually affirms benefits the UK has received by leaving the EU
    There is a paragraph in the article which says precisely that.
    You are free to disagree, but that's not Scott's fault. Maybe you should take you own advice, pause your vendetta with Scott, and reread the article.
    I have read the article and as I have said it is far more nuanced than @Scott_xP post

    I do not have a vendetta but it is perfectly reasonable to challenge his posts
    As you won't make the effort, this is the direct quote from the article:
    ...Another report, published by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe on Wednesday, found that trade barriers on imports from the EU have led to a 6% increase in food prices in the UK. Products with high EU import shares such as fresh pork, tomatoes and jams were more affected than those with low EU import shares such as tuna and exotic fruits like pineapple....

    As I said, disagree with the study all you like (I'm not arguing it's correct), but your criticism of Scott on this point is simply wrong.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    You are the one that has been wound up for six years by a "lie" written in the side of a bus.

    You voted for it.

    And now we both suffer.

    Why aren't you happy?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
    Receiving the TLP does rather require an age of mid-60s and above - ergo, far more likely to be a Tory voter. Which the Tories have evidently noticed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    Background on British Airways: they did a ‘fire and rehire’ on hundreds of cabin crew during the pandemic, and are now complaining they’re short-staffed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/17/ba-begins-to-carry-out-its-fire-and-rehire-threat-to-jobs

    They’ve set up the Madrid base, because they can’t find enough CC to work for minimum wage in the UK any more.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/

    I flew to Canada recently on BA and though there were lots of nagging annoucements about wearing masks, they didn't whine when I (and about 10% of the other pax) didn't.

    So they have my business for a while.
    The long-haul business is separate from the troubled short-haul, and a much better product.

    On the North American routes, they’re one of the better airlines - but they have a lot more competition heading East from London, with the ME and Asian carriers being a class above, especially in the premium cabins.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596



    All in all, to an interested non-expert such as myself, it appeared the Russian military was in the best shape it had been since the fall of the USSR. I have been rapidly converted to the opposite point of view.

    It's important not to judge the "shape" by Western standards. If the British took 10,000+ KIA in a few months on a Jolly Boys Outing then everyone of OF-7 and higher rank all the way up the PM would be gone. In Russia 10,000+ KIA makes the war more popular and Putin's domestic position stronger.

    Ukraine repeatedly win the PR battle and lose the actual battle. They had the 'Fuck Yourself' meme and the stamps, etc. about Snake Island but the actual result is they lost the island (which controls access to the Danube) and are not capable of getting it back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Nigelb said:

    your criticism of Scott on this point is simply wrong.

    He doesn't care
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Not quite sure what it is the large number of Republicans who agree with Biden's policy find so disappointing about his performance on Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519201157897502720
    73% of Americans support the US efforts to supply weapons to Ukraine, highest level since Russian invasion - Reuters/Ipsos poll

    Some 46% of Americans - including 70% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans - approve of Biden's performance on Ukraine
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
    Receiving the TLP does rather require an age of mid-60s and above - ergo, far more likely to be a Tory voter. Which the Tories have evidently noticed.
    We have not received the TLP in April - the rise was 3.1%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    edited April 27

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
    Receiving the TLP does rather require an age of mid-60s and above - ergo, far more likely to be a Tory voter. Which the Tories have evidently noticed.
    We have not received the TLP in April - the rise was 3.1%
    One off. It's still there, otherwise. Importantly so, with inflation growing for the immediate future and food and energy shortages likely to persist.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,207
    Dura_Ace said:



    All in all, to an interested non-expert such as myself, it appeared the Russian military was in the best shape it had been since the fall of the USSR. I have been rapidly converted to the opposite point of view.

    It's important not to judge the "shape" by Western standards. If the British took 10,000+ KIA in a few months on a Jolly Boys Outing then everyone of OF-7 and higher rank all the way up the PM would be gone. In Russia 10,000+ KIA makes the war more popular and Putin's domestic position stronger.

    Ukraine repeatedly win the PR battle and lose the actual battle. They had the 'Fuck Yourself' meme and the stamps, etc. about Snake Island but the actual result is they lost the island (which controls access to the Danube) and are not capable of getting it back.
    How many Russians actually know they’ve had 20k soldiers KIA in two months?

    How long will it take before 20k wives and mothers realise that their husbands and sons aren’t coming back, and how long before tens of thousands more troops do come back with injuries and stories?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Csnt say I'm a huge fan of regionalism outside of local level, if we had it everywhere it'd be chaos, but good luck David for a good showing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Labour has built up a 27-point lead over the Tories in London ahead of the town hall elections on May 5, a new poll reveals on Wednesday. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-elections-may-2022-labour-lead-conservatives-poll-b996500.html https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1519208249622507521/photo/1

    Suggests Wandsworth and Barnet will go Labour but the Tories will hold Westminster and Hillingdon
    I wonder whether Westminster is more likely than Barnet.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,801
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
    Receiving the TLP does rather require an age of mid-60s and above - ergo, far more likely to be a Tory voter. Which the Tories have evidently noticed.
    So Labour will have a policy to reduce the OAP at the next election?

    Of course they won't.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    The truly dangerous gamble for Tory MPs is not removing Boris Johnson, but keeping him in place.

    Me for @ConHome on the demise of Brand Boris - and whether the wider Conservative Party will now share the same fate:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2022/04/james-johnson-the-polling-is-clear-johnson-is-now-a-fatal-drag-on-conservative-fortunes.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Labour has built up a 27-point lead over the Tories in London ahead of the town hall elections on May 5, a new poll reveals on Wednesday. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-elections-may-2022-labour-lead-conservatives-poll-b996500.html https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1519208249622507521/photo/1

    That's a 5% swing since 2018 I think.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
    Receiving the TLP does rather require an age of mid-60s and above - ergo, far more likely to be a Tory voter. Which the Tories have evidently noticed.
    So Labour will have a policy to reduce the OAP at the next election?

    Of course they won't.

    That's not the point - you were claiming that there is no link between Tory voting and the TLP which is nonsense.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596
    kle4 said:

    Csnt say I'm a huge fan of regionalism outside of local level, if we had it everywhere it'd be chaos, but good luck David for a good showing.

    Everything north of the M18 (excluding Hartlepool) does have a distinct cultural identity though. I mean, it's not Catalunya or Euskadi but it probably merits discrete political representation.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482
    kle4 said:

    Csnt say I'm a huge fan of regionalism outside of local level, if we had it everywhere it'd be chaos, but good luck David for a good showing.

    We already have problems because Northern Ireland and Scotland have basically opted out of the national debate at Westminster in favour not "goodies for our patch".
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,801
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    ping said:

    I’m sure this has already been discussed, but…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61227622

    “Cost of living crisis: Changes to childcare and MOT rules considered to help budgets”

    Note: only suggestions are stuff that doesn’t cost the treasury anything. Number 10/11 don’t get it. This is an existential crisis for the government.

    Yes, that’s the whole point.

    They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.

    It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
    It's remarkable how many people seem to be of the impression that it only counts if it costs the Treasury something.

    Who do they think funds the Treasury?

    If the Treasury has money to help then it should be reversing the tax rise, putting up taxes in order to give a fraction of our own money back to us isn't productive.
    A child care manager was interviewed this morning on the suggestion HMG may remove the restriction on the number of children under the child carer and said that HMG need to increase the grant per child to reduce the cost to the parents

    It was lost on her that for HMG to remit more than higher taxes are needed from just those same parents
    Taxes don't have to fall on young people with small children. Not unless you are a retired Tory admiring your triple lock pension.
    So only tories get a triple lock pension?
    Receiving the TLP does rather require an age of mid-60s and above - ergo, far more likely to be a Tory voter. Which the Tories have evidently noticed.
    So Labour will have a policy to reduce the OAP at the next election?

    Of course they won't.

    That's not the point - you were claiming that there is no link between Tory voting and the TLP which is nonsense.
    I did not claim that, it was said that only Tory voting pensioners were happy to receive the TLP. I am sure there are Labour voting pensioners who are happy with the TLP and do not pay voluntary tax to the treasury
This discussion has been closed.