I hope this experience doesn’t put off a single person like me, with a background like mine from aspiring to participate in public life.
That would break my heart. 💔
We need more people in politics with backgrounds like mine - and fewer as a hobby to help their mates.
7/9
Well done Angela Rayner! Money couldn't buy you a page like that. It does just about everything. From being a not very impressive hang over from the Corbyn era this turns her into a real player. I noticed she's started working on her image a couple of weeks ago. Now when she has something to say people will listen. Whatever the Mail were trying to do I can't imagine. Maybe they're as pissed off with the Tories as the rest of us?
The "Tory scum" speech was the making of her. Its far too easy to speak to your core, especially when you were a Cobynista. She'd already dropped the Jeremy and become a far more serious player than Wrong-Daily, but still pandered to the "scum" thing.
Reaction was swift and harsh inside the party and out. She genuinely apologised and reformed. Note that Steve Baker says he is now VONC because of the clear insincerity of the PM apologising to the Commons on Tuesday afternoon then ranting away to the '22 on Tuesday evening.
Another reason why they have to take her out. Authentic, northern, fiesty, but clearly articulate and clever. And understands what humility is.
"genuinely apologised."
She eventually apologised, after being forced. I don't see her apology as being particularly genuine.
Her first attempts were to excuse her comments as they were down to her 'northern roots; it it was only after a month that she 'apologised'.
'Scum' is a horrible word. Not because of any hidden meaning but because the sound is particularly ugly. It used to be a PB favourite. I would be surprised if you haven't used it?
But if you aren't worried about the aesthetics just the meaning then you could say she was ahead of the game. The word is defined as 'A contemptible person'. At the time she said it that was a minority view. Now we know what we know there are few who would describe him as anything else
I have almost certainly used the word in the past. I shouldn't, and it's something I try not to use any more. But I am not a politician.
But when it comes to 'a contemptible person', I'd include people who say the 'talent' should be able to abuse women. Can you think of a PB regular who said such a thing, before 'Me Too' made the problem in his industry even more obvious?
Contemptible indeed.
We shouldn't be too precious these things. I would always try to avoid words than insult protected characteristics (e.g. "bint") and try to avoid using derogatory words for large groups of people, especially when it captures a large number of unknowable people. So for example "Tory voters are scum" is wrong. "Tory ministers are scum" is acceptable. I don't subscribe to either view, by the way, I'm using those because it's closest to what Rayner said.
There's nothing wrong with calling an individual scum. Some people ARE that contemptible. I would use that words to describe Donald Trump without any hesitation. And since typing that last sentence, I've sat and reflected on it, and I'm even more solidly behind the use of that word. It fits perfectly.
One of the most depressingly tedious arguments in recent years has been the Diane Abbott / Priti Patel maths thing
It reflects the larger reality that an awful lot of folk are not very numerate. PB is of course a shining exception…
I regard myself as reasonably numerate, but my worst mathematical mistake involved an answer that was 68 orders of magnitude out.
One of the effects of medicine switching from the apothecaries system of weights and measures to the metric was that errors started to be of at least 10 orders of magnitude!
Edit; think I've got that wrong. I meant doses (etc) were 10x (at least) what ought to have been intended.
10x = one order of magnitude. Wasn’t there a study that suggested that dosage errors were much more common under the metric system, so the authorities had to devise new processes to catch the errors before the drug got to the patient?
Confusion between mg and micro grams would worry me.
Trying to teach people to spot and avoid powers of ten errors takes up a noticeable portion of my working life.
I have seen several errors in computing caused by Mb (Megabit) being confused with MB (MegaByte). It is why Megabit is mostly shortened to Mbit nowadays. I've also seen comments in code where people use Mb instead of MB or vice versa.
Also ISPs tent to use Mbps to measure their speeds, whereas lots of people seem to refer to it as MBps.
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
I hope this experience doesn’t put off a single person like me, with a background like mine from aspiring to participate in public life.
That would break my heart. 💔
We need more people in politics with backgrounds like mine - and fewer as a hobby to help their mates.
7/9
Well done Angela Rayner! Money couldn't buy you a page like that. It does just about everything. From being a not very impressive hang over from the Corbyn era this turns her into a real player. I noticed she's started working on her image a couple of weeks ago. Now when she has something to say people will listen. Whatever the Mail were trying to do I can't imagine. Maybe they're as pissed off with the Tories as the rest of us?
The "Tory scum" speech was the making of her. Its far too easy to speak to your core, especially when you were a Cobynista. She'd already dropped the Jeremy and become a far more serious player than Wrong-Daily, but still pandered to the "scum" thing.
Reaction was swift and harsh inside the party and out. She genuinely apologised and reformed. Note that Steve Baker says he is now VONC because of the clear insincerity of the PM apologising to the Commons on Tuesday afternoon then ranting away to the '22 on Tuesday evening.
Another reason why they have to take her out. Authentic, northern, fiesty, but clearly articulate and clever. And understands what humility is.
"genuinely apologised."
She eventually apologised, after being forced. I don't see her apology as being particularly genuine.
Her first attempts were to excuse her comments as they were down to her 'northern roots; it it was only after a month that she 'apologised'.
'Scum' is a horrible word. Not because of any hidden meaning but because the sound is particularly ugly. It used to be a PB favourite. I would be surprised if you haven't used it?
But if you aren't worried about the aesthetics just the meaning then you could say she was ahead of the game. The word is defined as 'A contemptible person'. At the time she said it that was a minority view. Now we know what we know there are few who would describe him as anything else
I have almost certainly used the word in the past. I shouldn't, and it's something I try not to use any more. But I am not a politician.
But when it comes to 'a contemptible person', I'd include people who say the 'talent' should be able to abuse women. Can you think of a PB regular who said such a thing, before 'Me Too' made the problem in his industry even more obvious?
Contemptible indeed.
We shouldn't be too precious these things. I would always try to avoid words than insult protected characteristics (e.g. "bint") and try to avoid using derogatory words for large groups of people, especially when it captures a large number of unknowable people. So for example "Tory voters are scum" is wrong. "Tory ministers are scum" is acceptable. I don't subscribe to either view, by the way, I'm using those because it's closest to what Rayner said.
There's nothing wrong with calling an individual scum. Some people ARE that contemptible. I would use that words to describe Donald Trump without any hesitation. And since typing that last sentence, I've sat and reflected on it, and I'm even more solidly behind the use of that word. It fits perfectly.
Do you object to bint on sexual or racial grounds? It couldn't in origin be more neutral - it's just girl, daughter of. Even features in the name of the mother of the Prophet, Aminah bint Wahb.
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
One of the most depressingly tedious arguments in recent years has been the Diane Abbott / Priti Patel maths thing
It reflects the larger reality that an awful lot of folk are not very numerate. PB is of course a shining exception…
I regard myself as reasonably numerate, but my worst mathematical mistake involved an answer that was 68 orders of magnitude out.
One of the effects of medicine switching from the apothecaries system of weights and measures to the metric was that errors started to be of at least 10 orders of magnitude!
Edit; think I've got that wrong. I meant doses (etc) were 10x (at least) what ought to have been intended.
10x = one order of magnitude. Wasn’t there a study that suggested that dosage errors were much more common under the metric system, so the authorities had to devise new processes to catch the errors before the drug got to the patient?
Confusion between mg and micro grams would worry me.
Trying to teach people to spot and avoid powers of ten errors takes up a noticeable portion of my working life.
I have seen several errors in computing caused by Mb (Megabit) being confused with MB (MegaByte). It is why Megabit is mostly shortened to Mbit nowadays. I've also seen comments in code where people use Mb instead of MB or vice versa.
Also ISPs tent to use Mbps to measure their speeds, whereas lots of people seem to refer to it as MBps.
Edit: and kB and kb as well...
How, Mr J, are the blue-tits in your nest-box doing? Ours are much later in nest building, although if it's the same pair as last year, perhaps they've learned from bitter experience.
Scholz and Draghi gave major interviews less than 1w apart to @corriere & @derspiegel. Contexts differ, deliverables may not be radically apart. But in a war, narratives matter. Instructive to compare answers on ia: arming Ukr, energy dependence, and econ fallout of war. 1/
Of interest to those betting on the Grand Prix - it’s very much raining in northern Italy, two hours before the start of the race. Every support race has seen at least two safety cars, even those where it was dry. Value at 1/10.
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Is that an Alhambra Reserva? My fave Spanish beer.
I hope this experience doesn’t put off a single person like me, with a background like mine from aspiring to participate in public life.
That would break my heart. 💔
We need more people in politics with backgrounds like mine - and fewer as a hobby to help their mates.
7/9
Well done Angela Rayner! Money couldn't buy you a page like that. It does just about everything. From being a not very impressive hang over from the Corbyn era this turns her into a real player. I noticed she's started working on her image a couple of weeks ago. Now when she has something to say people will listen. Whatever the Mail were trying to do I can't imagine. Maybe they're as pissed off with the Tories as the rest of us?
The "Tory scum" speech was the making of her. Its far too easy to speak to your core, especially when you were a Cobynista. She'd already dropped the Jeremy and become a far more serious player than Wrong-Daily, but still pandered to the "scum" thing.
Reaction was swift and harsh inside the party and out. She genuinely apologised and reformed. Note that Steve Baker says he is now VONC because of the clear insincerity of the PM apologising to the Commons on Tuesday afternoon then ranting away to the '22 on Tuesday evening.
Another reason why they have to take her out. Authentic, northern, fiesty, but clearly articulate and clever. And understands what humility is.
"genuinely apologised."
She eventually apologised, after being forced. I don't see her apology as being particularly genuine.
Her first attempts were to excuse her comments as they were down to her 'northern roots; it it was only after a month that she 'apologised'.
'Scum' is a horrible word. Not because of any hidden meaning but because the sound is particularly ugly. It used to be a PB favourite. I would be surprised if you haven't used it?
But if you aren't worried about the aesthetics just the meaning then you could say she was ahead of the game. The word is defined as 'A contemptible person'. At the time she said it that was a minority view. Now we know what we know there are few who would describe him as anything else
I have almost certainly used the word in the past. I shouldn't, and it's something I try not to use any more. But I am not a politician.
But when it comes to 'a contemptible person', I'd include people who say the 'talent' should be able to abuse women. Can you think of a PB regular who said such a thing, before 'Me Too' made the problem in his industry even more obvious?
Contemptible indeed.
We shouldn't be too precious these things. I would always try to avoid words than insult protected characteristics (e.g. "bint") and try to avoid using derogatory words for large groups of people, especially when it captures a large number of unknowable people. So for example "Tory voters are scum" is wrong. "Tory ministers are scum" is acceptable. I don't subscribe to either view, by the way, I'm using those because it's closest to what Rayner said.
There's nothing wrong with calling an individual scum. Some people ARE that contemptible. I would use that words to describe Donald Trump without any hesitation. And since typing that last sentence, I've sat and reflected on it, and I'm even more solidly behind the use of that word. It fits perfectly.
Do you object to bint on sexual or racial grounds? It couldn't in origin be more neutral - it's just girl, daughter of. Even features in the name of the mother of the Prophet, Aminah bint Wahb.
I'm guessing from your name you knew that though.
I also wouldn't spend too long tracing etymologies. We all know that "bint" is a gendered term whether or not you agree that it's unacceptable to use it. Any word deemed offensive to certain groups will have some harmless root, for example derivatives from the Latin "niger" meaning black or cucūlus meaning cuckoo. Harmless origins don't mean unproblematic in modern usage.
One of the most depressingly tedious arguments in recent years has been the Diane Abbott / Priti Patel maths thing
It reflects the larger reality that an awful lot of folk are not very numerate. PB is of course a shining exception…
I regard myself as reasonably numerate, but my worst mathematical mistake involved an answer that was 68 orders of magnitude out.
One of the effects of medicine switching from the apothecaries system of weights and measures to the metric was that errors started to be of at least 10 orders of magnitude!
Edit; think I've got that wrong. I meant doses (etc) were 10x (at least) what ought to have been intended.
10x = one order of magnitude. Wasn’t there a study that suggested that dosage errors were much more common under the metric system, so the authorities had to devise new processes to catch the errors before the drug got to the patient?
Confusion between mg and micro grams would worry me.
Trying to teach people to spot and avoid powers of ten errors takes up a noticeable portion of my working life.
Especially since the symbol for mili is latin m and micro is Greek m.
That one is an absolute bugger to pick out in an electronic document.
Though one of the minor joys of teaching physics is lessons on unambiguous letter formation.
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Cloud is very hard to forecast. One big reason is that this is because it often exists in relatively shallow layers and our atmospheric observations don't have a high enough resolution in the vertical direction, and then another reason is that it's a threshold effect, so the forecast can be only slightly out in terms of humidity, temperature or turbulence, but that small error can be enough to cross the cloud/no cloud threshold.
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
One of the most depressingly tedious arguments in recent years has been the Diane Abbott / Priti Patel maths thing
It reflects the larger reality that an awful lot of folk are not very numerate. PB is of course a shining exception…
I regard myself as reasonably numerate, but my worst mathematical mistake involved an answer that was 68 orders of magnitude out.
One of the effects of medicine switching from the apothecaries system of weights and measures to the metric was that errors started to be of at least 10 orders of magnitude!
Edit; think I've got that wrong. I meant doses (etc) were 10x (at least) what ought to have been intended.
10x = one order of magnitude. Wasn’t there a study that suggested that dosage errors were much more common under the metric system, so the authorities had to devise new processes to catch the errors before the drug got to the patient?
Confusion between mg and micro grams would worry me.
Trying to teach people to spot and avoid powers of ten errors takes up a noticeable portion of my working life.
Especially since the symbol for mili is latin m and micro is Greek m.
That one is an absolute bugger to pick out in an electronic document.
Though one of the minor joys of teaching physics is lessons on unambiguous letter formation.
As someone else pointed out it's PITA in medicine/pharmacy, too.
Even though the symbols for a drachm and an apothecaries ounce are similar there's enough of a difference to make them recognisable, even allowing for the worst of physicians handwriting!
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
Whoever had anything to do with that story should be utterly ashamed of themselves
A full apology to Angela and indeed Boris must follow and a donation to the Ukrainian charities
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Is that an Alhambra Reserva? My fave Spanish beer.
It is indeed. And the second one just arrived!
The good thing about the sunshine is that everybody seems to enjoying what are presumably extended St Jordi’s day celebrations. I’m in Plaça De La Indepència, there’s some sort of kids’ fun going on in the centre of the square, I’ve seen a pantomime horse, they’re playing the best of the Beach Boys quite loudly (I doubt that’s a tradition!) and the statue in the square is flying a sort of black saltire with a star - think it’s this Catalan flag https://www.crwflags.com/fotw/flags/es}ct-tf.html
I hope this experience doesn’t put off a single person like me, with a background like mine from aspiring to participate in public life.
That would break my heart. 💔
We need more people in politics with backgrounds like mine - and fewer as a hobby to help their mates.
7/9
Well done Angela Rayner! Money couldn't buy you a page like that. It does just about everything. From being a not very impressive hang over from the Corbyn era this turns her into a real player. I noticed she's started working on her image a couple of weeks ago. Now when she has something to say people will listen. Whatever the Mail were trying to do I can't imagine. Maybe they're as pissed off with the Tories as the rest of us?
The "Tory scum" speech was the making of her. Its far too easy to speak to your core, especially when you were a Cobynista. She'd already dropped the Jeremy and become a far more serious player than Wrong-Daily, but still pandered to the "scum" thing.
Reaction was swift and harsh inside the party and out. She genuinely apologised and reformed. Note that Steve Baker says he is now VONC because of the clear insincerity of the PM apologising to the Commons on Tuesday afternoon then ranting away to the '22 on Tuesday evening.
Another reason why they have to take her out. Authentic, northern, fiesty, but clearly articulate and clever. And understands what humility is.
"genuinely apologised."
She eventually apologised, after being forced. I don't see her apology as being particularly genuine.
Her first attempts were to excuse her comments as they were down to her 'northern roots; it it was only after a month that she 'apologised'.
'Scum' is a horrible word. Not because of any hidden meaning but because the sound is particularly ugly. It used to be a PB favourite. I would be surprised if you haven't used it?
But if you aren't worried about the aesthetics just the meaning then you could say she was ahead of the game. The word is defined as 'A contemptible person'. At the time she said it that was a minority view. Now we know what we know there are few who would describe him as anything else
I have almost certainly used the word in the past. I shouldn't, and it's something I try not to use any more. But I am not a politician.
But when it comes to 'a contemptible person', I'd include people who say the 'talent' should be able to abuse women. Can you think of a PB regular who said such a thing, before 'Me Too' made the problem in his industry even more obvious?
Contemptible indeed.
We shouldn't be too precious these things. I would always try to avoid words than insult protected characteristics (e.g. "bint") and try to avoid using derogatory words for large groups of people, especially when it captures a large number of unknowable people. So for example "Tory voters are scum" is wrong. "Tory ministers are scum" is acceptable. I don't subscribe to either view, by the way, I'm using those because it's closest to what Rayner said.
There's nothing wrong with calling an individual scum. Some people ARE that contemptible. I would use that words to describe Donald Trump without any hesitation. And since typing that last sentence, I've sat and reflected on it, and I'm even more solidly behind the use of that word. It fits perfectly.
Do you object to bint on sexual or racial grounds? It couldn't in origin be more neutral - it's just girl, daughter of. Even features in the name of the mother of the Prophet, Aminah bint Wahb.
I'm guessing from your name you knew that though.
I also wouldn't spend too long tracing etymologies. We all know that "bint" is a gendered term whether or not you agree that it's unacceptable to use it. Any word deemed offensive to certain groups will have some harmless root, for example derivatives from the Latin "niger" meaning black or cucūlus meaning cuckoo. Harmless origins don't mean unproblematic in modern usage.
It's not an etymology, it's the actual self same word! Though I do agree that as a loan word it is better avoided
Fun fact: entered the language via Our Brave Boys in WW2/national service needing to know how to make their desires known to a Port Said taxi driver.
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
More than a whiff of concerted activity..
They do seem to making very much the same pitch in their respective upstreams.
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Cloud is very hard to forecast. One big reason is that this is because it often exists in relatively shallow layers and our atmospheric observations don't have a high enough resolution in the vertical direction, and then another reason is that it's a threshold effect, so the forecast can be only slightly out in terms of humidity, temperature or turbulence, but that small error can be enough to cross the cloud/no cloud threshold.
One of the most depressingly tedious arguments in recent years has been the Diane Abbott / Priti Patel maths thing
It reflects the larger reality that an awful lot of folk are not very numerate. PB is of course a shining exception…
I regard myself as reasonably numerate, but my worst mathematical mistake involved an answer that was 68 orders of magnitude out.
One of the effects of medicine switching from the apothecaries system of weights and measures to the metric was that errors started to be of at least 10 orders of magnitude!
Edit; think I've got that wrong. I meant doses (etc) were 10x (at least) what ought to have been intended.
10x = one order of magnitude. Wasn’t there a study that suggested that dosage errors were much more common under the metric system, so the authorities had to devise new processes to catch the errors before the drug got to the patient?
Confusion between mg and micro grams would worry me.
Trying to teach people to spot and avoid powers of ten errors takes up a noticeable portion of my working life.
I have seen several errors in computing caused by Mb (Megabit) being confused with MB (MegaByte). It is why Megabit is mostly shortened to Mbit nowadays. I've also seen comments in code where people use Mb instead of MB or vice versa.
Also ISPs tent to use Mbps to measure their speeds, whereas lots of people seem to refer to it as MBps.
Edit: and kB and kb as well...
How, Mr J, are the blue-tits in your nest-box doing? Ours are much later in nest building, although if it's the same pair as last year, perhaps they've learned from bitter experience.
It's my first year doing this, so I've little knowledge of what to expect aside from YouTube channels I've watched. he nest looks fairly well on; they started with mossy material, and are now on grass and animal hair, with a largish cup in the middle. No eggs yet though.
We are all very excited, though I'm having to tell the little 'un that these things do not always end well. Even if we get no eggs, it's an experiment that's worked IMV - and next year I'll do it better.
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
More than a whiff of concerted activity..
They do seem to making very much the same pitch in their respective upstreams.
We are basically now on a diet of one dead cat a day.
An attacking force typically seeks a three-to-one numerical advantage over the defender, if not more. That degree of superiority is now probably beyond Russia, except at the tactical level in some locations. It will probably try to compensate for this lack of manpower in manoeuvre units with air strikes and artillery. Russia may also rely more heavily on less well-trained militia forces from Donetsk and Luhansk. But this isn’t a recipe for a rapid breakthrough, and the Ukrainian military has demonstrated it is capable, creative and well led. More likely, any Russian advances will be slow and costly.
One of the most depressingly tedious arguments in recent years has been the Diane Abbott / Priti Patel maths thing
It reflects the larger reality that an awful lot of folk are not very numerate. PB is of course a shining exception…
I regard myself as reasonably numerate, but my worst mathematical mistake involved an answer that was 68 orders of magnitude out.
One of the effects of medicine switching from the apothecaries system of weights and measures to the metric was that errors started to be of at least 10 orders of magnitude!
Edit; think I've got that wrong. I meant doses (etc) were 10x (at least) what ought to have been intended.
10x = one order of magnitude. Wasn’t there a study that suggested that dosage errors were much more common under the metric system, so the authorities had to devise new processes to catch the errors before the drug got to the patient?
Confusion between mg and micro grams would worry me.
Trying to teach people to spot and avoid powers of ten errors takes up a noticeable portion of my working life.
I have seen several errors in computing caused by Mb (Megabit) being confused with MB (MegaByte). It is why Megabit is mostly shortened to Mbit nowadays. I've also seen comments in code where people use Mb instead of MB or vice versa.
Also ISPs tent to use Mbps to measure their speeds, whereas lots of people seem to refer to it as MBps.
Edit: and kB and kb as well...
How, Mr J, are the blue-tits in your nest-box doing? Ours are much later in nest building, although if it's the same pair as last year, perhaps they've learned from bitter experience.
It's my first year doing this, so I've little knowledge of what to expect aside from YouTube channels I've watched. he nest looks fairly well on; they started with mossy material, and are now on grass and animal hair, with a largish cup in the middle. No eggs yet though.
We are all very excited, though I'm having to tell the little 'un that these things do not always end well. Even if we get no eggs, it's an experiment that's worked IMV - and next year I'll do it better.
Best of luck. As I've said, we've had ours for several years now and we've seen the parents end with triumph and disaster. Assuming you've got the entry to the box well away from branches, gutters, roofs and anything else that could be perched on crawled along there shouldn't be problems with predators. The issue, as far as we can see, is always enough food for the chicks; as far as we know we've never had one of the parents falling prey to a predator. You'll probably lose one chick, the last to hatch. Poor little sod gets stood on by older ones.
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Glad you are enjoying your Don Quixote's progress.
1 - Vaccine getting a little disorganised? I was invited for my 4th jab then informed that I was not eligible. The vaccine centre staff doctors blamed GPS and / or administrators.
2 - Is Tesco on the skids? Went for a small shop there for the first time in a large Tesco for several year, and it was chaotic on details.
On the other hand, you never go hungry, or thirsty, in Tennessee. That whole Deep South hospitality thing is no joke. And I saw a bald eagle when we went kayaking on the Buffalo River
Central Tennessee is quietly beautiful and deliciously remote. It would be a good place to see out the Apocalypse
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
More than a whiff of concerted activity..
At the very least add “I too” (or equivalent) if you are going to do that.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Whoever did the accuweather forecast for Catalonia seems to have been an order of magnitude out for the cloud cover today. Most of it has burnt off and I’m now basking in the sunshine that I should have been watching the tortoises enjoy. I’ve never been so sad to see the sun. Oh well.. I shall just have to return some day; I want to for the Little Yellow Train too.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Cloud is very hard to forecast. One big reason is that this is because it often exists in relatively shallow layers and our atmospheric observations don't have a high enough resolution in the vertical direction, and then another reason is that it's a threshold effect, so the forecast can be only slightly out in terms of humidity, temperature or turbulence, but that small error can be enough to cross the cloud/no cloud threshold.
Sorry to hear it led you astray today.
Don’t worry, I’ll grin and beer it! 😉
Really enjoying your travel updates and food pics .
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
The most concerning aspect of the propaganda blitz is that Russia, uniquely among the nations of the world, has prepared its population to accept the possibility of nuclear war. A senior commentator on state television stated recently that any attempt to send NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine would be a casus belli, provoking war between Russia and NATO. “To win this war,” he blandly explained, “whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations. This will then entail the use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons.”
That chilling analysis was grave enough, but still more alarming, because of the worldview it expressed, was a statement by Putin’s propaganda chief: “Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads. This would guarantee destruction of the USA and all other NATO countries, in accordance with the principle ‘Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?’ ”
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
And your alternative?
If Putin wins and seizes Ukraine he will go on to Moldova and perhaps the Baltic states. Despotic but successful conquerors are not known for pulling up and saying “ok, I’ve conquered enough now”
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Just got a call from work I've been expecting for a few weeks. Off to Eastern Europe early tomorrow morning. Last time this happened around the new year it all got cancelled so I've been expecting this to pop back up for a while now.
Could be three days or three weeks, they don't know yet. Enjoy the French election and the local elections if I'm not back before then.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
The most concerning aspect of the propaganda blitz is that Russia, uniquely among the nations of the world, has prepared its population to accept the possibility of nuclear war. A senior commentator on state television stated recently that any attempt to send NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine would be a casus belli, provoking war between Russia and NATO. “To win this war,” he blandly explained, “whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations. This will then entail the use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons.”
That chilling analysis was grave enough, but still more alarming, because of the worldview it expressed, was a statement by Putin’s propaganda chief: “Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads. This would guarantee destruction of the USA and all other NATO countries, in accordance with the principle ‘Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?’ ”
Got drunk with some interesting Americans last night. A variety. A rich Rhode Island realtor. A military vet. Etc
Consensus: we have to fight Russia, and defeat it
On the other hand: they accepted America would not go to war with China to defend Taiwan
An attacking force typically seeks a three-to-one numerical advantage over the defender, if not more. That degree of superiority is now probably beyond Russia, except at the tactical level in some locations. It will probably try to compensate for this lack of manpower in manoeuvre units with air strikes and artillery. Russia may also rely more heavily on less well-trained militia forces from Donetsk and Luhansk. But this isn’t a recipe for a rapid breakthrough, and the Ukrainian military has demonstrated it is capable, creative and well led. More likely, any Russian advances will be slow and costly.
I note that Oryx now has the number of Russian tank losses at 543. The proportion of destroyed seems to be going up. Combined with the MOD updates that Ukraine is repulsing Russian attacks along the line of Donbas, suggests that the defensive weapons sent to Ukraine are doing their job.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
The most concerning aspect of the propaganda blitz is that Russia, uniquely among the nations of the world, has prepared its population to accept the possibility of nuclear war. A senior commentator on state television stated recently that any attempt to send NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine would be a casus belli, provoking war between Russia and NATO. “To win this war,” he blandly explained, “whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations. This will then entail the use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons.”
That chilling analysis was grave enough, but still more alarming, because of the worldview it expressed, was a statement by Putin’s propaganda chief: “Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads. This would guarantee destruction of the USA and all other NATO countries, in accordance with the principle ‘Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?’ ”
Got drunk with some interesting Americans last night. A variety. A rich Rhode Island realtor. A military vet. Etc
Consensus: we have to fight Russia, and defeat it
On the other hand: they accepted America would not go to war with China to defend Taiwan
If the Chinese army is not considerably better than their Russian counterparts (as in, about 100 times better) then they won't need to. With Taiwan's advantages of territory and military preparedness they would have knocked this Russian invasion somewhere into the middle of next week.
Of course, it is very possible China's military is about 100 times better than their Russian counterparts...
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
Whoever had anything to do with that story should be utterly ashamed of themselves
A full apology to Angela and indeed Boris must follow and a donation to the Ukrainian charities
It has no place in our politics today
Two words....Lynton Crosby. You don't have to be a genius to see how media briefing operation has stepped up significantly over the past 2 months.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
The most concerning aspect of the propaganda blitz is that Russia, uniquely among the nations of the world, has prepared its population to accept the possibility of nuclear war. A senior commentator on state television stated recently that any attempt to send NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine would be a casus belli, provoking war between Russia and NATO. “To win this war,” he blandly explained, “whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations. This will then entail the use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons.”
That chilling analysis was grave enough, but still more alarming, because of the worldview it expressed, was a statement by Putin’s propaganda chief: “Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads. This would guarantee destruction of the USA and all other NATO countries, in accordance with the principle ‘Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?’ ”
Got drunk with some interesting Americans last night. A variety. A rich Rhode Island realtor. A military vet. Etc
Consensus: we have to fight Russia, and defeat it
On the other hand: they accepted America would not go to war with China to defend Taiwan
If the Chinese army is not considerably better than their Russian counterparts (as in, about 100 times better) then they won't need to. With Taiwan's advantages of territory and military preparedness they would have knocked this Russian invasion somewhere into the middle of next week.
Of course, it is very possible China's military is about 100 times better than their Russian counterparts...
As I’ve said before, I believe China will strangle Taiwan into submission. There will be no invasion. China can win without firing a shot; it is too powerful as a trading nation
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Just got a call from work I've been expecting for a few weeks. Off to Eastern Europe early tomorrow morning. Last time this happened around the new year it all got cancelled so I've been expecting this to pop back up for a while now.
Could be three days or three weeks, they don't know yet. Enjoy the French election and the local elections if I'm not back before then.
Just got a call from work I've been expecting for a few weeks. Off to Eastern Europe early tomorrow morning. Last time this happened around the new year it all got cancelled so I've been expecting this to pop back up for a while now.
Could be three days or three weeks, they don't know yet. Enjoy the French election and the local elections if I'm not back before then.
You’re not based around Hereford by any chance?
Hereford AFC currently on tour need a replacement full back.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
You’ve wanted Ukraine to give up since this started.
It should be noted that two of the regular posters with most military experience (at least openly) on here - Topping and Dura_Ace - both underestimated Ukraine's ability to fight. Both were very bullish on the evil bear.
I don't think there's any bad intent in that - just that the military trained for decades to fight the USSR. But the Russian military is not the military from the old USSR. The mindset is ingrained - the USSR were excellent, so the Russians would be too. Combine that with Ukraine's terrible performance in 2014, and their views were reasonable.
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
As much as I disagree with @AngelaRayner on almost every political issue I respect her as a parliamentarian and deplore the misogyny directed at her anonymously today.
The Angela Rayner story was clearly planted in the Mail by spin doctors who work for Boris Johnson. Don't know what they are playing at, but if it's some kind of dead cat, presumably Johnson's tweet is part of that. It certainly isn't sincere.
More than a whiff of concerted activity..
Looking at the shared vocabulary, does that make them a party of deplorables ?
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
The most concerning aspect of the propaganda blitz is that Russia, uniquely among the nations of the world, has prepared its population to accept the possibility of nuclear war. A senior commentator on state television stated recently that any attempt to send NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine would be a casus belli, provoking war between Russia and NATO. “To win this war,” he blandly explained, “whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations. This will then entail the use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons.”
That chilling analysis was grave enough, but still more alarming, because of the worldview it expressed, was a statement by Putin’s propaganda chief: “Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads. This would guarantee destruction of the USA and all other NATO countries, in accordance with the principle ‘Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?’ ”
Got drunk with some interesting Americans last night. A variety. A rich Rhode Island realtor. A military vet. Etc
Consensus: we have to fight Russia, and defeat it
On the other hand: they accepted America would not go to war with China to defend Taiwan
If the Chinese army is not considerably better than their Russian counterparts (as in, about 100 times better) then they won't need to. With Taiwan's advantages of territory and military preparedness they would have knocked this Russian invasion somewhere into the middle of next week.
Of course, it is very possible China's military is about 100 times better than their Russian counterparts...
As I’ve said before, I believe China will strangle Taiwan into submission. There will be no invasion. China can win without firing a shot; it is too powerful as a trading nation
Highly unlikely over the next decade, I think. Taiwan has technology that China doesn't, that the developed world needs.
And the events of the last couple of years are causing something of a rethink on economic dependency on China.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
That isn't a solution! You aren't handing over lego bricks as populations and militaries have agency. Current Russia is systematically rotten and weak but the expansionism is also systematic not down simply to Putin and his clique. Yes, there is danger as it collapses but conflict and eventual collapse are inevitable. Too many commentators are assuming a powerful Russian state will persist. "We" (Western governments etc.) haven't much control over the timing of this.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
He'll want more. Because grabbing all those lands will not stop Russia's structural problems. He has had two decades to improve Russia, and has only enriched himself and his friends. Vast parts of Russia will still be underdeveloped wastelands.
So let us say that we let him grab all of eastern Europe. And then, for green reasons, the rest of Europe and the world weans itself off oil and gas. Suddenly he loses a massive amount of income, and it will then be: "Buy our stuff or we'll be at war - and you know what that means!"
The longer we leave it, the greater the risks become. My 'solution' is to do what we are doing, and try to persuade China, India and others to put pressure on Putin and those around him.
That article mentions how unreasonable and irresponsible Russia is being. You need to convince me that if we give him what he wants, he will suddenly be much more reasonable and responsible, despite his greater power.
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, the people in those states probably 'give a fuck'. As will Poland and others, who know they will be next.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, Not you, clearly. You probably wouldn’t mind if Putin invaded Norfolk.
I’m glad you’re out of the British army. You’re a pathetic, appeasing quisling. You despise the west so you see no need to defend it.
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Letting Russia succeed in Ukraine increases the danger in the future.
Yes. I do get the cautiousness about, for instance, NATO forces getting involved on the ground or shooting down Russian planes, there's good reason even gung ho supporters have not argued that, but I really cannot understand the thinking behind in effect condemning the arming of Ukraine (which is what saying the shoveling of weapons there brings us closer to WW3 is doing) - in what world are we further away from the possibility of large scale conflict if Russia is able to take over Ukraine more easily?
Given Russia likes to moan about NATO bordering it, and the build up of forces near it, both of which will happen even more if they take over Ukraine or big parts of it, I do not really follow the logic that providing of weapons to slow or stop that is morally suspect, which is what is being accused of here (hence the argument 'Arming Ukraine increases chance of wider war, which is bad, unless you are a nihilist').
Yes, people can posture about 'who cares about X' to look all edgy and nihilistic, but is that really 'realistic'? Realists don't care about future threats? That doesn't make any sense whatsoever, that argument is saying the only realistic thing to do is to care about what happens 5 minutes from now because the future is another country.
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
Am I the only f##ker still in the UK and working?
You might be in the U.K., but you’re not working, you’re on pb...
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
There's some great birds up there. Look out for Wallcreeper.
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
Am I the only f##ker still in the UK and working?
You might be in the U.K., but you’re not working, you’re on pb...
I am working....called multi-tasking. Not had a single day off yet this year!
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
He'll want more. Because grabbing all those lands will not stop Russia's structural problems. He has had two decades to improve Russia, and has only enriched himself and his friends. Vast parts of Russia will still be underdeveloped wastelands.
So let us say that we let him grab all of eastern Europe. And then, for green reasons, the rest of Europe and the world weans itself off oil and gas. Suddenly he loses a massive amount of income, and it will then be: "Buy our stuff or we'll be at war - and you know what that means!"
The longer we leave it, the greater the risks become. My 'solution' is to do what we are doing, and try to persuade China, India and others to put pressure on Putin and those around him.
That article mentions how unreasonable and irresponsible Russia is being. You need to convince me that if we give him what he wants, he will suddenly be much more reasonable and responsible, despite his greater power.
Yes. Putin is an old man in a hurry. By some accounts he is a pretty sick old man in a hurry
He runs a failing, sickening nation that produces little but wheat, vodka and oil. And threats. The only way it succeeds is by armed expansion. Which is what he is doing and he will not stop
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Letting Russia succeed in Ukraine increases the danger in the future.
Yes. I do get the cautiousness about, for instance, NATO forces getting involved on the ground or shooting down Russian planes, there's good reason even gung ho supporters have not argued that, but I really cannot understand the thinking behind in effect condemning the arming of Ukraine (which is what saying the shoveling of weapons there brings us closer to WW3 is doing) - in what world are we further away from the possibility of large scale conflict if Russia is able to take over Ukraine more easily?
Given Russia likes to moan about NATO bordering it, and the build up of forces near it, both of which will happen even more if they take over Ukraine or big parts of it, I do not really follow the logic that providing of weapons to slow or stop that is morally suspect, which is what is being accused of here (hence the argument 'Arming Ukraine increases chance of wider war, which is bad, unless you are a nihilist').
Yes, people can posture about 'who cares about X' to look all edgy and nihilistic, but is that really 'realistic'? Realists don't care about future threats? That doesn't make any sense whatsoever, that argument is saying the only realistic thing to do is to care about what happens 5 minutes from now because the future is another country.
To be clear I'm not even trying to argue a more aggressive stance, but I do question the logic of presenting 'Who cares what happens anywhere, we could all die, so do nothing as nothing will happen for years' as some kind of 'realistic' assesment to contrast everyone else being an armchair general champing at the bit.
People can get a bit carried away with the potential ease of a good outcome for Ukraine, such as that exists, and so mroe sober assessments are to be welcomed, but contrarian nihilism is not necessarily assessment is it?
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
Am I the only f##ker still in the UK and working?
You might be in the U.K., but you’re not working, you’re on pb...
I am working....called multi-tasking. Not had a single day off yet this year!
Only teasing, but I dispute multi tasking as I don’t believe it exists. What you are doing is a task, frequently interrupted for necessary rest breaks (checking pb)...
According to an article on today's Sunday Times Tony Blair thinks Starmer is 'rubbish' and another 'senior party figure describes him as a 'wooden plank'. And these people are meant to be his friends.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, the people in those states probably 'give a fuck'. As will Poland and others, who know they will be next.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
It's quite plain that people in Western Europe do give a fuck.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, the people in those states probably 'give a fuck'. As will Poland and others, who know they will be next.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
Well, hang on, Russia has said in clear terms that if NATO does anything other than "give in" it is going strategic nuclear on NATO's arse. Why would you not believe that? Putin is old and mad and has the overwhelming support of his people, and the weapons. I suspect you have sold yourself some kind of story about bullies always backing down when a chap does the decent thing and stands up to them. Not so.
And why does "giving in" enhance the future nuclear risk? If Russia gets all the territory it wants and a nice breathing space to bring its non nuke forces up to speed, what incentive do you see it having in the future to start nuking people?
Rather depressingly, the sky is grey and gloomy. I was up and ready to go early enough to catch the (supposed) train back to Vilajuïga, then bus or walk to Garriguella, and on to the tortoise sanctuary. But their sign told me that if I came on a cloudy day not to expect to see tortoises, and not to complain! So I decided not to potentially waste eight hours (five travelling there and back, three waiting to see if they came out into the gloom) of my last whole day, and to enjoy Girona and its food and wine instead.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Whatever it was I was expecting from Azerbaijan, it was not this. Saribash village near Qakh, in the Greater Caucus mountains
Every PB-er is abroad! Fantastic
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
Am I the only f##ker still in the UK and working?
You might be in the U.K., but you’re not working, you’re on pb...
I am working....called multi-tasking. Not had a single day off yet this year!
Only teasing, but I dispute multi tasking as I don’t believe it exists. What you are doing is a task, frequently interrupted for necessary rest breaks (checking pb)...
Surely, a task (checking PB) interrupted for necessary work breaks?
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, the people in those states probably 'give a fuck'. As will Poland and others, who know they will be next.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
Well, hang on, Russia has said in clear terms that if NATO does anything other than "give in" it is going strategic nuclear on NATO's arse. Why would you not believe that? Putin is old and mad and has the overwhelming support of his people, and the weapons. I suspect you have sold yourself some kind of story about bullies always backing down when a chap does the decent thing and stands up to them. Not so.
And why does "giving in" enhance the future nuclear risk? If Russia gets all the territory it wants and a nice breathing space to bring its non nuke forces up to speed, what incentive do you see it having in the future to start nuking people?
It's not a case of being a decent chap. It's the case that standing up to builies is usually safer than caving into them.
We know, and Russia knows, that their country would be reduced to molten slag in the event of a nuclear conflict. Russian leaders don't want to spend the rest of their lives underground living off tinned pineapple.
Thought I best get something to eat with my fourth beer! Calamars a La Romana. I’ve eaten so much squid lately, I might start making ink..
You appear to have eaten very well on your travels!
I certainly have!
But I’ve also lost over half a stone since I’ve been here. The “marche partout” bit seems to have beaten the “bois comme un trou” part.
That’s impressive. How many miles a day have you averaged?
Just under fifteen miles a day. And that includes four lazy, under five mile, days (including today, which I expect will get to ten miles before it’s over). The thirty two miles on my third day is holding the average up!
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
What was the vote split last time?
Macron got 77% in Martinique, and 75% in Guadeloupe.
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, the people in those states probably 'give a fuck'. As will Poland and others, who know they will be next.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
Well, hang on, Russia has said in clear terms that if NATO does anything other than "give in" it is going strategic nuclear on NATO's arse. Why would you not believe that? Putin is old and mad and has the overwhelming support of his people, and the weapons. I suspect you have sold yourself some kind of story about bullies always backing down when a chap does the decent thing and stands up to them. Not so.
And why does "giving in" enhance the future nuclear risk? If Russia gets all the territory it wants and a nice breathing space to bring its non nuke forces up to speed, what incentive do you see it having in the future to start nuking people?
Its rather noticeable that for all their ZZZing the Russian people are proving distinctly unwilling to risk their own lives in Ukraine.
Ukraine is a disaster for Russia* whether it "wins" or loses. The difference is whether the humiliation is long drawn out or sudden. It has nothing to gain from Ukraine and even less from places like the Baltic states or Moldova. At some point that realisation is going to kick in
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
Every day the west keeps shoveling weapons into Ukraine brings us another day closer to the accidental start of WW3.
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Let us assume you are correct and Putin is willing to launch WWIII to get what he wants.
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Have you read that reaction.life article? Do you not believe it? Because if it is true the most rational solution by a country mile is to let putin have what he wants up to the greatest extent of the USSR, including if he wants it East Germany, and hope for another 1989 event in a couple of generations time.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
In reality it's going to take the Russian military at least ten years to recover from their version of Operation Enduring Freedom by the time they have ground out enough progress in Ukraine to call it a win.
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Well, the people in those states probably 'give a fuck'. As will Poland and others, who know they will be next.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
Well, hang on, Russia has said in clear terms that if NATO does anything other than "give in" it is going strategic nuclear on NATO's arse. Why would you not believe that? Putin is old and mad and has the overwhelming support of his people, and the weapons. I suspect you have sold yourself some kind of story about bullies always backing down when a chap does the decent thing and stands up to them. Not so.
And why does "giving in" enhance the future nuclear risk? If Russia gets all the territory it wants and a nice breathing space to bring its non nuke forces up to speed, what incentive do you see it having in the future to start nuking people?
So you’re seriously arguing that we should yield all of Eastern Europe to Moscow? Do the Eastern Europeans not get a say? They are in NATO
Also, bullies do back down. Putin is a classic bully
Of course he is also a psycho so he might actually destroy the world, but I see no good options from here where we can rule out world-destruction
Our best bet is to continue doing what we are doing. Arm Ukraine, train Ukraine, give it all possible support to the brink of actual combat with Russia (we should not do that). Let Russia exhaust itself in its new unwinnable Vietnam war.
Meanwhile make it clear that NATO territory is THE red line. Cross that and he faces war with NATO, which can only end in the destruction of Russia, or Russia and the world, either way Russia is destroyed, and Putin will have destroyed it
At the same time, briskly if painfully wean ourselves off Russian energy, isolate its economy, impoverish it over time, so it becomes a Chinese fiefdom; until Putin - hopefully - dies or falls. Which could be soon
Marine Le Pen has won in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. 70% of the vote in Guadeloupe.
I saw it reported as coming from "Belgian media", by Andrea Parma. I'm not sure how accurate it is. But, if it's true, that would suggest she is on course to win the election.
Comments
So for example "Tory voters are scum" is wrong. "Tory ministers are scum" is acceptable. I don't subscribe to either view, by the way, I'm using those because it's closest to what Rayner said.
There's nothing wrong with calling an individual scum. Some people ARE that contemptible. I would use that words to describe Donald Trump without any hesitation. And since typing that last sentence, I've sat and reflected on it, and I'm even more solidly behind the use of that word. It fits perfectly.
Also ISPs tent to use Mbps to measure their speeds, whereas lots of people seem to refer to it as MBps.
Edit: and kB and kb as well...
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1518169693638561792?
I'm guessing from your name you knew that though.
There also seemed to have been an order of magnitude error in the design of my shower. I always try to leave bathrooms dry; I leave a towel within reach of the shower so I can dry myself thoroughly in the cubicle - I don’t even get the shower mat wet.
This morning, I was ready to go in for my shower and was just checking the temperature and then adjusted the power to maximum (who doesn’t?). This caused the shower head to fly up in its cradle so it was showering everywhere in the bathroom except in the cubicle. My illogical reaction was, rather than just turning the shower off, to try to grab the shower head - which then came away from the cradle and sprayed at my clean clothes and previously dry towel. I told the lovely receptionist, just so she would know if the cleaners told her that the guest in 206 had managed to get the ceiling wet. Given her laughter, I think it made her morning!
Scholz and Draghi gave major interviews less than 1w apart to @corriere & @derspiegel.
Contexts differ, deliverables may not be radically apart. But in a war, narratives matter.
Instructive to compare answers on ia: arming Ukr, energy dependence, and econ fallout of war. 1/
https://twitter.com/Fatassinari/status/1518131636210216960
That one is an absolute bugger to pick out in an electronic document.
Though one of the minor joys of teaching physics is lessons on unambiguous letter formation.
Sorry to hear it led you astray today.
Even though the symbols for a drachm and an apothecaries ounce are similar there's enough of a difference to make them recognisable, even allowing for the worst of physicians handwriting!
A full apology to Angela and indeed Boris must follow and a donation to the Ukrainian charities
It has no place in our politics today
The good thing about the sunshine is that everybody seems to enjoying what are presumably extended St Jordi’s day celebrations. I’m in Plaça De La Indepència, there’s some sort of kids’ fun going on in the centre of the square, I’ve seen a pantomime horse, they’re playing the best of the Beach Boys quite loudly (I doubt that’s a tradition!) and the statue in the square is flying a sort of black saltire with a star - think it’s this Catalan flag https://www.crwflags.com/fotw/flags/es}ct-tf.html
Fun fact: entered the language via Our Brave Boys in WW2/national service needing to know how to make their desires known to a Port Said taxi driver.
We are all very excited, though I'm having to tell the little 'un that these things do not always end well. Even if we get no eggs, it's an experiment that's worked IMV - and next year I'll do it better.
Raworth has a go about why Starmer has spent the whole week concentrating on Partygate rather than cost of living.
And then starts asking him questions on Partygate.
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/rob-lee-on-why-attrition-will-be-a-critical-factor-in-the-battle-for-donbas/21808954
Some of the highest turnouts at midday were in Macron areas aswell as some of the lowest.
Assuming you've got the entry to the box well away from branches, gutters, roofs and anything else that could be perched on crawled along there shouldn't be problems with predators. The issue, as far as we can see, is always enough food for the chicks; as far as we know we've never had one of the parents falling prey to a predator.
You'll probably lose one chick, the last to hatch. Poor little sod gets stood on by older ones.
>(who doesn’t?).
Probably everyone else
Put the first tomato plants outside this weekend.
Two items of anecdata:
1 - Vaccine getting a little disorganised? I was invited for my 4th jab then informed that I was not eligible. The vaccine centre staff doctors blamed GPS and / or administrators.
2 - Is Tesco on the skids? Went for a small shop there for the first time in a large Tesco for several year, and it was chaotic on details.
Central Tennessee is quietly beautiful and deliciously remote. It would be a good place to see out the Apocalypse
"Wartime Russia has become a madhouse that threatens the world."
"The other irresponsible propaganda theme is that Russia, because of its large land mass, could survive and “win” a nuclear war. Since at least 2016 the regime has been promoting this canard by holding civil defence exercises."
https://reaction.life/wartime-putins-russia-has-become-a-madhouse-threatening-the-world/
I'm cool with it because I should be dead anyway but Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are playing with thermonuclear fire.
Also
The most concerning aspect of the propaganda blitz is that Russia, uniquely among the nations of the world, has prepared its population to accept the possibility of nuclear war. A senior commentator on state television stated recently that any attempt to send NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine would be a casus belli, provoking war between Russia and NATO. “To win this war,” he blandly explained, “whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations. This will then entail the use of powerful strategic nuclear weapons.”
That chilling analysis was grave enough, but still more alarming, because of the worldview it expressed, was a statement by Putin’s propaganda chief: “Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads. This would guarantee destruction of the USA and all other NATO countries, in accordance with the principle ‘Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?’ ”
If Putin wins and seizes Ukraine he will go on to Moldova and perhaps the Baltic states. Despotic but successful conquerors are not known for pulling up and saying “ok, I’ve conquered enough now”
Last time this happened around the new year it all got cancelled so I've been expecting this to pop back up for a while now.
Could be three days or three weeks, they don't know yet. Enjoy the French election and the local elections if I'm not back before then.
Consensus: we have to fight Russia, and defeat it
On the other hand: they accepted America would not go to war with China to defend Taiwan
Of course, it is very possible China's military is about 100 times better than their Russian counterparts...
So what does he want? By his own words, the Baltic states, Poland, and probably all of Eastern Europe under his control. So if we do not help Ukraine now, he will just threaten the world with nuclear oblivion until he gets what he wants.
And even when he gets that: Russia, like the USSR, will still be a shitehole. He has had twenty years and massive amounts of money from gas 'n oil to improve his country. He has not done so; instead enriching himself and his friends. I see no reason for that to change. So his ambitions will be greater.
Giving in to Putin now over Ukraine does not reduce the risk of nuclear oblivion in the medium or long term. It increases it - from both Russia, and other states.
The best time to tackle Putin was years ago. The next best time is now. The worst time is in the future.
Johnson, Brandon, Macron et al are not the ones playing with thermonuclear fire. That is Putin.
And you have no solution.
Awkward
I don't think there's any bad intent in that - just that the military trained for decades to fight the USSR. But the Russian military is not the military from the old USSR. The mindset is ingrained - the USSR were excellent, so the Russians would be too. Combine that with Ukraine's terrible performance in 2014, and their views were reasonable.
But wrong.
So there's a solution right there. What is yours?
https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/1518176046331408385?s=20&t=xoQeSDQ9OTHRCSfmgALXTg
So they aren't going to be rolling into Moldova or the thrice blessed Baltics any time soon. And who would give a fuck if they did?
Taiwan has technology that China doesn't, that the developed world needs.
And the events of the last couple of years are causing something of a rethink on economic dependency on China.
Go up, up, up into those mountains. The higher you go the weirder it gets. In the foothills they look Iranian, half way up they look like Slavs, at the top they are all beautiful blue eyed red headed freckly Celts (or look like it). The Caucasus mountains are amazing
So let us say that we let him grab all of eastern Europe. And then, for green reasons, the rest of Europe and the world weans itself off oil and gas. Suddenly he loses a massive amount of income, and it will then be: "Buy our stuff or we'll be at war - and you know what that means!"
The longer we leave it, the greater the risks become. My 'solution' is to do what we are doing, and try to persuade China, India and others to put pressure on Putin and those around him.
That article mentions how unreasonable and irresponsible Russia is being. You need to convince me that if we give him what he wants, he will suddenly be much more reasonable and responsible, despite his greater power.
Your answer is to give in to the Russians. I fail to see how that reduces the chances of nuclear war in the medium or long term; in fact, I'd argue it increases the risk.
I’m glad you’re out of the British army. You’re a pathetic, appeasing quisling. You despise the west so you see no need to defend it.
Meh
Given Russia likes to moan about NATO bordering it, and the build up of forces near it, both of which will happen even more if they take over Ukraine or big parts of it, I do not really follow the logic that providing of weapons to slow or stop that is morally suspect, which is what is being accused of here (hence the argument 'Arming Ukraine increases chance of wider war, which is bad, unless you are a nihilist').
Yes, people can posture about 'who cares about X' to look all edgy and nihilistic, but is that really 'realistic'? Realists don't care about future threats? That doesn't make any sense whatsoever, that argument is saying the only realistic thing to do is to care about what happens 5 minutes from now because the future is another country.
And just for Leon, the Snowcocks.....
He runs a failing, sickening nation that produces little but wheat, vodka and oil. And threats. The only way it succeeds is by armed expansion. Which is what he is doing and he will not stop
People can get a bit carried away with the potential ease of a good outcome for Ukraine, such as that exists, and so mroe sober assessments are to be welcomed, but contrarian nihilism is not necessarily assessment is it?
But I’ve also lost over half a stone since I’ve been here. The “marche partout” bit seems to have beaten the “bois comme un trou” part.
And why does "giving in" enhance the future nuclear risk? If Russia gets all the territory it wants and a nice breathing space to bring its non nuke forces up to speed, what incentive do you see it having in the future to start nuking people?
That would be an incredible vote change from 2017 when Macron got 75% in Guadeloupe.
We know, and Russia knows, that their country would be reduced to molten slag in the event of a nuclear conflict. Russian leaders don't want to spend the rest of their lives underground living off tinned pineapple.
https://www.lemonde.fr/guadeloupe/elections/presidentielle-2017/
I would be extremely sceptical of a near-exact reversal.
NEW THREAD
Guadeloupe Macron 75%
Martinique Macron 78%
French Guinea Macron 65%
Being to the west of Europe I would have thought their results would be later, unless they voted yesterday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#Second_round
So it would be a spectacular reversal. It might be wrong, but sniffs wrong.
* Bigger disaster for Ukraine obvs.
Also, bullies do back down. Putin is a classic bully
Of course he is also a psycho so he might actually destroy the world, but I see no good options from here where we can rule out world-destruction
Our best bet is to continue doing what we are doing. Arm Ukraine, train Ukraine, give it all possible support to the brink of actual combat with Russia (we should not do that). Let Russia exhaust itself in its new unwinnable Vietnam war.
Meanwhile make it clear that NATO territory is THE red line. Cross that and he faces war with NATO, which can only end in the destruction of Russia, or Russia and the world, either way Russia is destroyed, and Putin will have destroyed it
At the same time, briskly if painfully wean ourselves off Russian energy, isolate its economy, impoverish it over time, so it becomes a Chinese fiefdom; until Putin - hopefully - dies or falls. Which could be soon