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Do Republican politicians even want to be Senators these days? – politicalbetting.com
Do Republican politicians even want to be Senators these days? – politicalbetting.com
Midterm elections are golden opportunities for opposition parties to gain seats. The Republicans have their sights on winning several senate seats from the Democrats, as well as retain some competitive states where long-standing Senators are standing down.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: fairly entertaining sprint race. The format remains stupid.
Pre-race tosh will be up tomorrow, as usual, so the markets have time to get going.
Special circle of hell for the governors who are so pro life they are undertaking a record breaking number of executions.
If I were F1 God, I’d have a standalone Sprint championship on Saturdays, maybe with a reverse championship grid and a $1m prize for the winning driver over the season. Most importantly, it would have nothing to do with the qualifying and Grand Prix, completely on its own so the drivers can take risks. If they want some American razzmatazz, put the $1m in cash in a Perspex briefcase and bring it to all the podium ceremonies and press conferences - but leave the qualifying format and Grand Prix alone!
This is not The Hundred of the F1, the worst idea that F1 came up with recently was the double points for the final race.
Although I’m sure there are some QAnon members who think they are actually aliens or lizards
Some Qanon members think they themselves are lizards or aliens, or some QAnon members think Republican politicians are lizards or aliens?
Trump endorses candidates for all sorts of elections, but what he really cases about is the senit, as that's the body that impeaches presidents and so on. so that's where he is most active.
Me: I'm more fucked than a stepmom on pornhub, oh shit, I did it again.
"Military intelligence: 2 Russian generals killed near Kherson.
According to Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, the military hit a Russian command post near occupied regional capital Kherson, allegedly killing two Russian generals and wounding one."
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517874325495455744
Questions over 11 Tory MPs and donors handed knighthoods by overseas tax haven
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/questions-over-11-tory-mps-26780036
Privatise the Beeb. Now.
As a governor in a red state, it looks like you get to make your batshit dreams happen. As a senator, you have to at least pretend to be civil, and where's the fun in that?
Anyone criticises you saying that is racist for dissing the Kama Sutra.
I'm hoping that at some point we build up massive karma and beat Surrey, Hampshire and Essex all by an innings.
On JD Vance. Not just author of Hillbilly Elegy. He served in Iraq (although wiki says in public affairs - so not exactly eyeball to eyeball with the enemy).
He went into finance and has has worked with Peter Thiel. I suspect this is the link back to Trump, because iirc Thiel is a big Trump follower/fan/financier.
You do have to put in legwork to be a plausible candidate though, and so few can actually get appointed, so it is high risk though.
So it is possible the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate in November. Especially as the thread header suggests the GOP put up some dubious candidates
Are we thinking Lt Generals or Major Generals?
Is anybody else getting the feeling that the Russians where expecting that 'Phase 2' was going to have advanced more than it has by now? and that they are having to send there generals to the front line again to 'encourage the men'
Re: caliber of GOP senatorial hopefuls this cycle, the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo is a factor all right, but another is the growing amount & impact of superPACs and other forms of unlimited campaign contributions from - in many cases - who knows?
AND note that celebrity candidacies are hardly unknown in US politics. For example, John C Fremont (Pathfinder), Teddy Roosevelt (Rough Rider), Ronald Reagan ("Win One for the Gipper"), Shirley Temple Black ("On the Good Ship Lollipop") and Arnold Schwarzenegger (the Terminator) to name a few.
Celebrity Democrats have included Henry Ford ("Fix or Repair Daily"), W Lee O'Daniel ("Pass the Biscuits Pappy), John Glenn ("We See Strange Things Out There") and (uck) Al Franken ("It's My Right as an Entertainer")
Lots of other examples of elected or would-be American politicos who used their fame and (in some cases) fortune to jump start their candidacies.
Some went on to accumulate significant political & governmental assistance. Some not. But name recognition combined with popular appeal gave them huge boost.
Got a nice run in down by the river
I suspect the key issue here is that a strong political CV is less important in the Republican Party now than a Twitter following and loyalty to the Orange'Un.
I suspect it will weaken them in November, albeit that the mid-term environment weighs the other way. It's not that people love career politicians, but having an electoral history at reasonably high levels means the potential for major gaffes (while not absent) is lower, and there has been time for skeletons to tumble out of closets. Herschel Walker's domestic violence record is an obvious one (and I think it's remarkable he's still very likely to get the nod). But there will be others to come.
Once got tour of their Capitol building (forget what they call it) conducted by large English-speaking security guard who turned out to have dual citizenship and was a voter in New York City. (Didn't ask him who he voted for but strongly suspect that Rudy G and W may have gotten his support.)
In the legislative chamber there is a rather striking depiction of St Agatha demonstrating how she was martyred.
Will always be a fan of the Most Serene Republic for one reason: they gave refuge to Garibaldi when half the armies of Europe where hot on this trail. San Marino & the Sanmarinese took a HUGE risk - for freedom.
Without the big donors, being a politician in the US is non stop fund raising, occasionally interrupted by politics.
Many big companies who used to donate to both parties fairly equally are pulling back from the GOP. Consider how much the House of Mouse spends - after Florida, what will they do?
So if you are not insane enough to get on the Trump++ bandwagon (and get the money from the loonies), running for the GOP looks especially shit…
I agree 2018 is a decent comparison. That provided a decent map for Republicans as the Senators had previously been elected in Obama's re-election cycle, so Democrats had to defend a lot (and indeed there was a net GOP gain of two). Similarly, this year Republicans are defending 21 versus only 14 Democrats who were elected the same year Trump won the Presidency - so it's not a terrible map for the Democrats.
I think Republicans are a bit more likely to make net gains than not. But in the betting there's some value at the moment betting against it - they are quite a bit less nailed on than for the House.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_South_Carolina_gubernatorial_election
Personally skeptical that Gen. Westmoreland could have gotten himself elected dogcatcher ANYWHERE in the USA in 1974. As by that point just about EVERY American was sick unto death of hearing about the Vietnam War PLUS the stench of failure about the whole business in general AND Westmoreland in particular.
Fact that he only got 42% in GOP primary versus John Edwards "a Charleston orthodontist who remained unknown virtually to the moment he won" the general election (Almanac of American Politics 1976)
My favorite (in very restricted sense) who laid an egg on the campaign trail was Alexander "I'm in charge here" Haig.
#KnowYourAudience
Nothing else in that year mattered - the triumph of Boris Johnson was certain the moment May announced her intention to resign. With hindsight, everything else was irrelevant.
All the attempts to thwart, forestall and otherwise subvert the 2016 referendum result not only were doomed to failure but each attempt only strengthened Johnson's hand and increased his majority.
It was political stupidity of the first order and those who tried paid the price (and now we are all paying the price).
The lesson of the last few years is very, very clear: attention trumps everything. "Bollocks to Brexit" and "next PM" were pugnacious messages that got attention. And that means exciting some people and revolting others. I'm far from surprised people were wound up by her. But that's the ecosystem we live in.
The Labour party is also thought to be holding talks with a number of “wavering Tories” about defecting. Conservative whips are particularly concerned about Dehenna Davison, the MP for the red wall seat Bishop Auckland. Another seven Tory MPs are also believed to have held talks with Labour in recent months.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/is-keir-starmer-ever-going-to-win-back-the-love-labours-lost-3zqzcgn7z
Three cabinet ministers and two shadow cabinet ministers are facing allegations of sexual misconduct after being reported to the parliamentary watchdog set up in the wake of the #MeToo scandal.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/three-cabinet-ministers-face-sexual-misconduct-claims-c8t58nhxx
Headline message: I could be PM
Immediate qualification: as leader of a national party I owe it to my candidates and members and the electorate to set that as my goal. How much of your own money you would like to bet for or against that outcome at what odds, mr interviewer, is entirely a matter for you.
Ah, the heady days of 2020.
Campaign like you mean it. Too many wet lettuce leaves in politics who spend too long worrying what they look like when they could instead be getting attention for their party and their message. Tim Fucking Farron.. Fuck me, what a sad apology of a man he is. Like a vicar at a disco.
Someone wise suggested that the two pandemic years have merged into one, so 2019 feels more decent that it is.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/03/keir-and-loathing-in-the-labour-party/
That's floor crossing for you, he just looks like Bojo's only serious challenger for political arse of the year.
"Why do we know more about Mars than we do the vagina?
A new book asks why an everyday body part is still largely a mystery to medical science
Rosamund Urwin"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-know-more-about-mars-vagina-rachel-e-gross-6vzp0kb6q
They went from 12 seats to 11.
Albeit with far more votes than in 2017.