There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that speech explaining why he shouldn't be PM was Boris's best speech ever.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
Can I enter your parallel universe of Johnsonian shrewdness and political judgement?
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.
He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.
Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.
Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that speech explaining why he shouldn't be PM was Boris's best speech ever.
And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.
Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?
What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
Plenty of kids get punished for things their parents have done, in fact with the two child rule in the benefits system it has become official government policy.
That’s not kids being punished.
That’s the government limiting the support available from the taxpayer and asking individuals to take responsibility for their own decisions
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
Can I enter your parallel universe of Johnsonian shrewdness and political judgement?
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
Are those two descriptions really contradictory?
Malign and malevolent is merely a value judgement, but if someone is going to be a chancer, then having shrewdness and judgement are probably useful skills for being such a chancer.
Blair was the same, he was an equally shrewd chancer.
Complaints against two SNP MPs accused of sexual harassment have been upheld by a Westminster authority.
The Sunday Times understands that former nationalist chief whip Patrick Grady and frontbencher Patricia Gibson have received the findings of an independent investigation and have been asked to respond.
Grady, the Glasgow North MP, stood aside from his role in March last year after claims emerged that he had groped two male researchers at an SNP Christmas party in 2016. It was also claimed that Grady, 42, “inappropriately” touched an SNP staff member, then aged 19, in a London pub.
At the time he stood down, it emerged that the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had been aware of “a concern” about Grady prior to a harassment complaint being made against him. The party said concerns were raised in February 2018 but that no complaint had been made at that point and the matter was dealt with “informally”….
… A friend of the complainant who accused the MPs recently told how he believes he has been driven to ill health by a lack of support from the party since raising concerns, with scant regard paid to his health and wellbeing.
Or perhaps, driven to ill health by a sudden realisation that he had been a grotesque, libidinous octopus, with scant regard paid to the mental health and wellbeing of the women he groped?
Actually, in case any offence was taken, I must apologise to any octopus reading this.
Reread the article - it is the complainant who was said to have been ‘driven to ill health’.
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that speech explaining why he shouldn't be PM was Boris's best speech ever.
See also the letter setting out the reasons to reject Brexit…
A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.
He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.
Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.
Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.
Whoever could have imagined it? Andrew Bridgen, an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Surely not!
This is a classic in the Lord Sugar school of diplomacy:
"Bridgen later called a board meeting where he allegedly called the directors, whom he deemed to be on his brother’s side, a “team of wankers” and “liars and thieves” and asked to be reinstated on up to £60,000 a year for “half a day to one day’s project work” a month.
For five years after being elected Bridgen had been paid £93,000 a year to attend monthly board meetings. Ellis recalled: “Andrew said that he was effectively bankrupt and could not live on an MP’s salary.”
The directors rejected his request."
Like the SNP MP who I talked about earlier, it's possible to imagine a sequence of events leading to a recall election. But it's one of the safest Tory seats in Britain.
It is now, but was Labour held until 2010, so not ancient history.
The constituency has changed, as have many former mining areas, with a lot of new building and warehouse type work.
Labour should not consider it a lost cause, but rather consider why it fails to appeal there. It isn't a posh bit of the county.
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
Can I enter your parallel universe of Johnsonian shrewdness and political judgement?
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
He's all those things, but he also has an incredibly strong intuition about power- how to get it, how to use it.
It's what has got him to the top of the pole, despite his manifest unfitness for being there.
The institutional negligence is often seen in other scandals - eg see the tainted blood scandal. What I find hard to forgive is the refusal to pay full compensation promptly - thus prolonging the suffering. This too is a feature of similar scandals. The indifference we show these people is shocking and keeps happening over and over again.
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
Can I enter your parallel universe of Johnsonian shrewdness and political judgement?
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
Are those two descriptions really contradictory?
Malign and malevolent is merely a value judgement, but if someone is going to be a chancer, then having shrewdness and judgement are probably useful skills for being such a chancer.
Blair was the same, he was an equally shrewd chancer.
I was thinking of his capacity for shrewdness in governance as alluded to rather than his shrewdness in mendacity.
And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.
Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?
What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
Plenty of kids get punished for things their parents have done, in fact with the two child rule in the benefits system it has become official government policy.
That’s not kids being punished.
That’s the government limiting the support available from the taxpayer and asking individuals to take responsibility for their own decisions
What decisions of their own are the children being asked to take responsibility for ?
'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'
Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.
I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.
There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
Thankfully, it does look like Biden has changed his tune in the last week or so. Serious amounts of kit are now on the way, alongside training for the Ukranians.
I wonder if in part it was because the Americans were wary of being seen to give 'too much' support to Ukraine for fear of poking the bear? Doing just enough to make the conflict painful for Russia was the limit. For whatever reason they feel confident enough now to be a bit bolder.
Yes, I think there was something in that, the US could see the Europeans putting in the effort and judged that they could get away with limited involvement - with the background of Americans not wanting to get involved in more wars overseas, and not wanting to poke the bear.
The reports of atrocities, and the realisation that the bear has not just been poked but has been wounded, has changed opinion among the public and decision-makers, to the point that there’s now a good chance to completely hollow out the Russian forces. The US also has by far the biggest supply of ground-based vehicles and air-based logistics capability, they know they can make a huge difference to the outcome of the war, and set Russia back decades in their global ambitions. Which means they are free to concentrate on the rise of China.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'
Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.
I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.
There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
Thankfully, it does look like Biden has changed his tune in the last week or so. Serious amounts of kit are now on the way, alongside training for the Ukranians.
I wonder if in part it was because the Americans were wary of being seen to give 'too much' support to Ukraine for fear of poking the bear? Doing just enough to make the conflict painful for Russia was the limit. For whatever reason they feel confident enough now to be a bit bolder.
The last 8 weeks or so has shown the Russian military to be far worse than anyone anticipated. They are poorly led, ill-disciplined, badly trained, and equipped with clapped-out kit that is a generation or two behind Western weapons. In some areas like precision weapons and ISR the Russians are absolutely miles behind the West. And it's no joke to say that there are private satellite companies that have better capabilities than the Russians.
The Americans must be looking at Russia and wondering just how easily they could defeat them in a conventional war. It would be a turkey shoot I expect.
A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.
He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.
Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.
Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.
Whoever could have imagined it? Andrew Bridgen, an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Surely not!
This is a classic in the Lord Sugar school of diplomacy:
"Bridgen later called a board meeting where he allegedly called the directors, whom he deemed to be on his brother’s side, a “team of wankers” and “liars and thieves” and asked to be reinstated on up to £60,000 a year for “half a day to one day’s project work” a month.
For five years after being elected Bridgen had been paid £93,000 a year to attend monthly board meetings. Ellis recalled: “Andrew said that he was effectively bankrupt and could not live on an MP’s salary.”
The directors rejected his request."
Like the SNP MP who I talked about earlier, it's possible to imagine a sequence of events leading to a recall election. But it's one of the safest Tory seats in Britain.
It is now, but was Labour held until 2010, so not ancient history.
The constituency has changed, as have many former mining areas, with a lot of new building and warehouse type work.
Labour should not consider it a lost cause, but rather consider why it fails to appeal there. It isn't a posh bit of the county.
Because labour usually spends its time not listening to the voters and what they want. Labour simply tells them what they should want and it’s supporters abuse them as bigots for not agreeing.
A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.
He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.
Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.
Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.
Whoever could have imagined it? Andrew Bridgen, an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Surely not!
This is a classic in the Lord Sugar school of diplomacy:
"Bridgen later called a board meeting where he allegedly called the directors, whom he deemed to be on his brother’s side, a “team of wankers” and “liars and thieves” and asked to be reinstated on up to £60,000 a year for “half a day to one day’s project work” a month.
For five years after being elected Bridgen had been paid £93,000 a year to attend monthly board meetings. Ellis recalled: “Andrew said that he was effectively bankrupt and could not live on an MP’s salary.”
The directors rejected his request."
Like the SNP MP who I talked about earlier, it's possible to imagine a sequence of events leading to a recall election. But it's one of the safest Tory seats in Britain.
It is now, but was Labour held until 2010, so not ancient history.
The constituency has changed, as have many former mining areas, with a lot of new building and warehouse type work.
Labour should not consider it a lost cause, but rather consider why it fails to appeal there. It isn't a posh bit of the county.
Because labour usually spends its time not listening to the voters and what they want. Labour simply tells them what they should want and it’s supporters abuse them as bigots for not agreeing.
Starmer is changing this.
Up to a point. How far will the members and MPs let him? What are his personal beliefs?
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
Can I enter your parallel universe of Johnsonian shrewdness and political judgement?
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
These universes overlap almost completely. One does not exclude the other. I have no problem with that. I do get slightly exasperated with those who insist, despite the evidence, that he is stupid as well as malevolent. He really isn't.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.
He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.
Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.
Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.
Whoever could have imagined it? Andrew Bridgen, an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Surely not!
This is a classic in the Lord Sugar school of diplomacy:
"Bridgen later called a board meeting where he allegedly called the directors, whom he deemed to be on his brother’s side, a “team of wankers” and “liars and thieves” and asked to be reinstated on up to £60,000 a year for “half a day to one day’s project work” a month.
For five years after being elected Bridgen had been paid £93,000 a year to attend monthly board meetings. Ellis recalled: “Andrew said that he was effectively bankrupt and could not live on an MP’s salary.”
The directors rejected his request."
Like the SNP MP who I talked about earlier, it's possible to imagine a sequence of events leading to a recall election. But it's one of the safest Tory seats in Britain.
It is now, but was Labour held until 2010, so not ancient history.
The constituency has changed, as have many former mining areas, with a lot of new building and warehouse type work.
Labour should not consider it a lost cause, but rather consider why it fails to appeal there. It isn't a posh bit of the county.
Because labour usually spends its time not listening to the voters and what they want. Labour simply tells them what they should want and it’s supporters abuse them as bigots for not agreeing.
Starmer is changing this.
True to some extent. But he still needs to be able to define the word “woman”, in a way that doesn’t leave 80% of the electorate laughing at him.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Even on yesterday's polling Starmer would not get a landslide but yes he would become PM with either most seats in a hung parliament or a small majority.
Boris needs to get a grip going forward on domestic politics, as does Sunak
Blasphemy wise I would have gone with "the Hindu Sunak may be contemplating the Christian celebration today and ruefully drawing the syncretist conclusion that in an uncertain world nothing is as nailed on as it appears."
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Nevis was no better the last time I was there, admittedly a few years ago. I have always struggled to see the attraction of going to considerable effort to seek out upland wilderness and then stand in a queue to climb what amounts to a staircase of a "made path". I understand the desire to contain the damage caused by excessive numbers and to improve safety but it makes the whole exercise soulless and pointless.
There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
Can I enter your parallel universe of Johnsonian shrewdness and political judgement?
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
He's all those things, but he also has an incredibly strong intuition about power- how to get it, how to use it.
It's what has got him to the top of the pole, despite his manifest unfitness for being there.
I consider "shrewd" to be a positive trait. I would use something like "ruthless" to define Johnson.
Was he shrewd to back Brexit, other than for issues of personal political gain? Has he been shrewd in his financial transactions, both privately and in office?
He is a relentless self-publicising populist, but does that make him £63m invisible garden bridge shrewd?
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Even on yesterday's polling Starmer would not get a landslide but yes he would become PM with either most seats in a hung parliament or a small majority.
Boris needs to get a grip going forward on domestic politics, as does Sunak
They need to go (particularly Boris) unless you are a partisan Labour supporter.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Even on yesterday's polling Starmer would not get a landslide but yes he would become PM with either most seats in a hung parliament or a small majority.
Boris needs to get a grip going forward on domestic politics, as does Sunak
No - Boris and Rishi need to resign
I am surprised you are willing to countenance his behaviour, and I would ask do you value integrity ?
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Nevis was no better the last time I was there, admittedly a few years ago. I have always struggled to see the attraction of going to considerable effort to seek out upland wilderness and then stand in a queue to climb what amounts to a staircase of a "made path". I understand the desire to contain the damage caused by excessive numbers and to improve safety but it makes the whole exercise soulless and pointless.
I suspect a lot of the people in the queue don't realize that there's going to be a queue until they get there and are mentally committed.
'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'
Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.
I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.
There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
Thankfully, it does look like Biden has changed his tune in the last week or so. Serious amounts of kit are now on the way, alongside training for the Ukranians.
I wonder if in part it was because the Americans were wary of being seen to give 'too much' support to Ukraine for fear of poking the bear? Doing just enough to make the conflict painful for Russia was the limit. For whatever reason they feel confident enough now to be a bit bolder.
Yes, I think there was something in that, the US could see the Europeans putting in the effort and judged that they could get away with limited involvement - with the background of Americans not wanting to get involved in more wars overseas, and not wanting to poke the bear.
The reports of atrocities, and the realisation that the bear has not just been poked but has been wounded, has changed opinion among the public and decision-makers, to the point that there’s now a good chance to completely hollow out the Russian forces. The US also has by far the biggest supply of ground-based vehicles and air-based logistics capability, they know they can make a huge difference to the outcome of the war, and set Russia back decades in their global ambitions. Which means they are free to concentrate on the rise of China.
In a "Special Operation" featuring a string of stupidities, the greatest surely was not seeing this would be NATO going to war with Russia by proxy. Not on NATO's soil, but up to its borders - so it could not just sit back. Who needs an exercise, when you can just observe every aspect of the Russian military's capabilities in a hot war.
What's more, with the gates of Mordor opening to send forth its army of looting, murdering, paedo-rapist orcs, NATO looks like the good guys, helping out the lovely hobbits of the Shire. There has been virtually no push-back outside Russia regarding the weapons stream of Ruskie-killing kit heading east. And why should there be? Russia sent us their Novichok. We are returning the favour with NLAWs.
You can feel the butt-hurt in Putin's whinging about being outgunned by far superior toys. Tough. Don't being a tank to an anti-tank weapon fight.
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Psalm 139 of King David in the Bible is absolutely clear on the importance of the unborn child as created by God. Reducing the number of abortions is as important a Christian message as protecting refugees.
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
Can HYUFD, who is our resident expert on what God thinks, pitch in ?
Rwanda's main problem is it is full to the gunwales with Christians whose main takeaway from the bible is that God hates queers. I wonder what Welby thinks of that
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
An interesting read, thanks for posting. I would note that he seems very keen to move away from excess deaths as a sole measure, and my wicked side wonders if that’s because it paints the U.K. in a better light? He is notoriously against the current government. On Ukraine, we see this inability to challenge pre existing assumptions all over the place. Despite the evidence, many still hav3 this image of a mighty Russian army. Does anyone now doubt that NATO forces would be vastly superior, if only technically, than the Russians?
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Psalm 139 of King David in the Bible is absolutely clear on the importance of the unborn child. Reducing the number of abortions is as important a Christian message as protecting refugees.
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
OT time to update your browser (or to check it is current) since Google has issued emergency patches to the chromium engine used by Chrome, Microsoft Edge, Vivaldi and probably some others.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
That's an interesting article, thanks. I'd like to add one more point to the Ukraine part: both sides (Ukraine and Russia) are 'lying', albeit often in different ways.
However, if you look at the things we know, Ukraine's 'lies' on things like equipment destroyed is a lot less egregious. Open-source figures (which will be lowball) are more than half Ukraine's figures for things like tanks, which are easier to verify (things like aircraft are much harder to verify). Russia's figures for the amount of Ukrainian kit destroyed are much more out of sync with the open-source figures. There are good reasons why this might be; but it should be noted that Russia's figures have nearly all of Ukraine's pre-war tank fleet destroyed - including, I believe, the stored ones. This does seem out of sync with what we are seeing on the ground.
Then there are the obvious lies by the Russian side - for instance their line on the Moskva sinking is almost as ridiculous as their MH17 lies. Or their entire justification for the war, which is based on lies, mistruths and a perverted sense of national identities.
Why does this matter? If Russia are lying to the outside world and their public, they might well be lying to themselves. That makes their decisions much less likely to be good ones. There are rumours that a lot of people in Moscow have been sacked for not having told the truth to Putin and the top bods. Does this make it more likely for their replacements to tell the truth? Perhaps, or perhaps the replacements will be more junior people who are *less* likely to tell Putin the bad news.
If Russia loses this war, it might be that a good part of the reason are the lies the regime has told, not just to other countries, not just to the public, but to themselves.
I've sort of opted out of the Ukraine discussion on PB for now, as anything not quite in line with the dominant view too quickly degenerates into personal suspicion, and I can't be bothered with it. But I think you're right, and it's an occupational hazard of autocracies. It's true in private life too - if you make people afraid to tell you you're making a mistake, you'll make more mistakes.
Something I don't properly understand about Russia is the extent to which censorship applies. We get the impression that it's all-encompassing, but then you get a pundit on a mainstream chat show saying "Maybe we should withdraw" and nothing seems to happen to them, so we wonder if it's a licensed trial ballooon or just a one-off. Navalny is clearly persecuted, but he's not been silenced. Some dissidents die in suspicious circumstances, others live apparently normal lives. Is the position that there is an absence of *reliable* protection of free speech, so people are afraid that they'll be victimised but it doesn't always happen and you can sometimes go off-message and get away with it?
Can HYUFD, who is our resident expert on what God thinks, pitch in ?
Rwanda's main problem is it is full to the gunwales with Christians whose main takeaway from the bible is that God hates queers. I wonder what Welby thinks of that
Homosexuality is not illegal in Rwanda.
It is however in much of Muslim majority North Africa and the Middle East
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Psalm 139 of King David in the Bible is absolutely clear on the importance of the unborn child. Reducing the number of abortions is as important a Christian message as protecting refugees.
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
So your response to my saying look at the teachings and sermons of Christ himself is to bring up a Psalm not from Christ himself? So you're more of a Davidian rather than a Christian?
Welby is quoting from Christ himself, but I guess faux-Christians have no interest in Christ's sermons.
Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?
The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.
I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.
But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
The Tory party now has the May problem in reverse. Just as the Cameron/May/centrist used to form the bulk of the party with the Brexiteers being the noisy outsiders which made it impossible for Boris to win in 2016 so they are now dominated by the Brexiteer wing with a much smaller and still quieter remainer section.
Hunt picks up that section no problem but, as with Boris in 2016, it is not enough right now. Boris was utterly ruthless in removing most of the heads of that hydra and they are not growing back. I can't see Hunt winning as a result but he is smart enough to triangulate and try to win the softer Brexiteers over. I don't think it will be enough.
Rather like Ruth Davidson decapitated the Scons and replanted them in her image. I did think that Mr Ross was steering a new course inj Scotland but at the moment he seems to have changed course and then lost his tiller uptide of Coirebhreacain.
I was surprised by his sudden movement back into the camp and frankly unpersuaded by the argument that Ukraine made Boris untouchable. I am not sure he has lost it completely but I would agree that his grip on the tiller seems unsteady and prone to unpredictable movement. Perhaps he was finding being outside Boris's camp a somewhat uncomfortable place to be.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Broadly, the Conservatives have three personnel options from here.
1 Keep Johnson. 2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently. 3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
He couldn't be elected to the House of Commons as he's one of the Lords Spiritual. He could resign, of course, although I'd suggest his influence on shaping politics is FAR greater as Archbishop of Canterbury than it would be as, say, MP for Canterbury.
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Psalm 139 of King David in the Bible is absolutely clear on the importance of the unborn child. Reducing the number of abortions is as important a Christian message as protecting refugees.
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
So your response to my saying look at the teachings and sermons of Christ himself is to bring up a Psalm not from Christ himself? So you're more of a Davidian rather than a Christian?
Welby is quoting from Christ himself, but I guess faux-Christians have no interest in Christ's sermons.
My Bible is as much the Old Testament as the New. The Christian Bible contains both. Just the New Testament makes us Christian, if we only had the Old Testament we would be Jewish
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
Why has Alastair Meeks become "formerly of this parish" ? Others seem to be among the disappeared during my interregnum - David Herdson ?
Epic flounce about Brexit. He was worried about his partners medication being choked off and turned nasty to those who held differing opinions. He is much missed.
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
To be fair, Mr R, it would be highly unlikely that Christ would have spoken about abortion since, when it took place then, it was of the 'bathtub of gin' or 'noxious plant' variety.
And although I'm am ex-Christian, I think it unkind, and indeed inaccurate, to refer to our colleague as a 'pretendy-Christian'. I have no doubt that he sincerely believes himself to be a Christian, and is recognised as such by others. In my Father's House, Christ is reported as saying, there are many mansions.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Broadly, the Conservatives have three personnel options from here.
1 Keep Johnson. 2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently. 3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
That's an interesting article, thanks. I'd like to add one more point to the Ukraine part: both sides (Ukraine and Russia) are 'lying', albeit often in different ways.
However, if you look at the things we know, Ukraine's 'lies' on things like equipment destroyed is a lot less egregious. Open-source figures (which will be lowball) are more than half Ukraine's figures for things like tanks, which are easier to verify (things like aircraft are much harder to verify). Russia's figures for the amount of Ukrainian kit destroyed are much more out of sync with the open-source figures. There are good reasons why this might be; but it should be noted that Russia's figures have nearly all of Ukraine's pre-war tank fleet destroyed - including, I believe, the stored ones. This does seem out of sync with what we are seeing on the ground.
Then there are the obvious lies by the Russian side - for instance their line on the Moskva sinking is almost as ridiculous as their MH17 lies. Or their entire justification for the war, which is based on lies, mistruths and a perverted sense of national identities.
Why does this matter? If Russia are lying to the outside world and their public, they might well be lying to themselves. That makes their decisions much less likely to be good ones. There are rumours that a lot of people in Moscow have been sacked for not having told the truth to Putin and the top bods. Does this make it more likely for their replacements to tell the truth? Perhaps, or perhaps the replacements will be more junior people who are *less* likely to tell Putin the bad news.
If Russia loses this war, it might be that a good part of the reason are the lies the regime has told, not just to other countries, not just to the public, but to themselves.
I've sort of opted out of the Ukraine discussion on PB for now, as anything not quite in line with the dominant view too quickly degenerates into personal suspicion, and I can't be bothered with it. But I think you're right, and it's an occupational hazard of autocracies. It's true in private life too - if you make people afraid to tell you you're making a mistake, you'll make more mistakes.
Something I don't properly understand about Russia is the extent to which censorship applies. We get the impression that it's all-encompassing, but then you get a pundit on a mainstream chat show saying "Maybe we should withdraw" and nothing seems to happen to them, so we wonder if it's a licensed trial ballooon or just a one-off. Navalny is clearly persecuted, but he's not been silenced. Some dissidents die in suspicious circumstances, others live apparently normal lives. Is the position that there is an absence of *reliable* protection of free speech, so people are afraid that they'll be victimised but it doesn't always happen and you can sometimes go off-message and get away with it?
Not just autocracies. Many (most?) companies will get rid of those perceived to be "not team players". Masterchef and BGT have contestants whose friends and families have evidently not told them they are not actually very good cooks or singers. Even our democratically elected Prime Minister rails against doomsters and gloomsters, and his Cabinet tells us we have had enough of experts and to fuck business.
The old Popes had it right, appointing devil's advocates. This is why diversity is good (although its advocates shy away from considering their reasons).
And this imposed or self-imposed conformity is often a common factor in the scandals @Cyclefree draws to our attention.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Broadly, the Conservatives have three personnel options from here.
1 Keep Johnson. 2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently. 3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
I am a centrist
So am I, but it's not our party right now.
Which is what bothers me, really. A strongly ideological Cabinet, a majority of 80, a chance to go out in a blaze of glory...
Can HYUFD, who is our resident expert on what God thinks, pitch in ?
Rwanda's main problem is it is full to the gunwales with Christians whose main takeaway from the bible is that God hates queers. I wonder what Welby thinks of that
Homosexuality is not illegal in Rwanda.
It is however in much of Muslim majority North Africa and the Middle East
No, but outlawing it was debated by Parliament as recently as 2010
Homosexuality is illegal under legacy UK colonial law in former colony and now majority Christian countries like Ghana and Malawi, so I really wouldn't be claiming this as a Christian vs Muslim thing
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?
Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.
“Nearly lost Scotland”. Love the proprietorial arrogance. Keep up the good work.
Looking back, I'm not so sure his Scottish referendum was such a bad move. It wasn't that close. And it has effectively been kicked in to the long grass with this 'once in a generation' thing. The fate of Independence seems to be tied up with the fate of the SNP, who will not be in power forever. Once something has become associated with the 'establishment', it inevitably loses some of its appeal.
Blimey. If that isn't designed to provoke ...!
Just the ramblings of an idiot, I laughed out loud at the stupidity of the troll
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Psalm 139 of King David in the Bible is absolutely clear on the importance of the unborn child. Reducing the number of abortions is as important a Christian message as protecting refugees.
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
Not exactly persuasive, since those passages talk of God knowing you before you were conceived. And if the Old Testament prohibited something, it was very specific about its being prohibited. Your appeal to metaphor is poor exegesis.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Broadly, the Conservatives have three personnel options from here.
1 Keep Johnson. 2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently. 3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
I am a centrist
So am I, but it's not our party right now.
Which is what bothers me, really. A strongly ideological Cabinet, a majority of 80, a chance to go out in a blaze of glory...
One wonders if the public will ever give a large majority again. What have they done with it?
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Broadly, the Conservatives have three personnel options from here.
1 Keep Johnson. 2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently. 3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
I am a centrist
So am I, but it's not our party right now.
Which is what bothers me, really. A strongly ideological Cabinet, a majority of 80, a chance to go out in a blaze of glory...
One wonders if the public will ever give a large majority again. What have they done with it?
Got Brexit Done which is what they were elected to do.
The lack of a majority is part of what made the last Parliament so much worse and led to the large majority being granted.
The next large majority the public gives will probably be to Labour not the Tories though.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
It was excellent and I rather enjoyed the first half as well for its humour.
Morning all.
I gave up at this, I'm afraid:
Someone mentioned that if you properly shuffle a pack of cards, the probability of the cards dealt ever being repeated in the same order in a later deal were astronomical (being blocked, I don’t have the exact wording)
It takes fully half a second to log out of twitter so you *can* read it...
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
It might be fairly obvious to you, but it is a nice example of how people refuse to believe evidence that contradicts a theory they have become attached to, This is a weakness we are all prone to, some more than others.
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
I’d argue that he also, at least for now, has luck on his side. The Tory government, stressed by the pandemic, Brexit and now the war in Ukraine, and it’s impacts on the CoL, are doing his job for him. There will be tougher times. He will need to provide a vision of Starmers Britain. Just not being Johnson is fine for now, but it won’t be when the full glare of the lectionary shines on him. particularly if it looks like he is set to win.
Sunak is less the new May than the new Michael Portillo or David Miliband. The young Crown Prince and Cabinet star seen as the heir apparent who dithered when they had their best chance in government and failed to become PM.
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Good morning
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Broadly, the Conservatives have three personnel options from here.
1 Keep Johnson. 2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently. 3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
I am a centrist
So am I, but it's not our party right now.
Which is what bothers me, really. A strongly ideological Cabinet, a majority of 80, a chance to go out in a blaze of glory...
One wonders if the public will ever give a large majority again. What have they done with it?
Got Brexit Done which is what they were elected to do.
The lack of a majority is part of what made the last Parliament so much worse and led to the large majority being granted.
Hope you are doing well Bart.
They got Brexit done - but if this is all they have to say for it, they will lose. The public have moved on and are fed up with Brexit. CoL is the key now - and with such a large majority the public are wondering why the Tories aren't doing anything to help.
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
He's also managed to get a halfway decent shadow cabinet together.
He has of course been a touch lucky that the Tories have made so many daft mistakes in somewhat trivial areas repeatedly leaving an open goal for Starmer & Co.
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
Indeed, he's also a shrewd, malevolent and malign figure.
Hence why he was willing to stand in Jeremy Corbyn's Cabinet while his more principled colleagues resigned.
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
Indeed, he's also a shrewd, malevolent and malign figure.
Hence why he was willing to stand in Jeremy Corbyn's Cabinet while his more principled colleagues resigned.
If he hadn't done that - he wouldn't been in charge now to take Labour back to Government. He plays the long game.
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
Indeed, he's also a shrewd, malevolent and malign figure.
Hence why he was willing to stand in Jeremy Corbyn's Cabinet while his more principled colleagues resigned.
If he hadn't done that - he wouldn't been in charge now to take Labour back to Government. He plays the long game.
As most shrewd, malevolent and malign politicians tend to do. We seem to be agreed.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
That's an interesting article, thanks. I'd like to add one more point to the Ukraine part: both sides (Ukraine and Russia) are 'lying', albeit often in different ways.
However, if you look at the things we know, Ukraine's 'lies' on things like equipment destroyed is a lot less egregious. Open-source figures (which will be lowball) are more than half Ukraine's figures for things like tanks, which are easier to verify (things like aircraft are much harder to verify). Russia's figures for the amount of Ukrainian kit destroyed are much more out of sync with the open-source figures. There are good reasons why this might be; but it should be noted that Russia's figures have nearly all of Ukraine's pre-war tank fleet destroyed - including, I believe, the stored ones. This does seem out of sync with what we are seeing on the ground.
Then there are the obvious lies by the Russian side - for instance their line on the Moskva sinking is almost as ridiculous as their MH17 lies. Or their entire justification for the war, which is based on lies, mistruths and a perverted sense of national identities.
Why does this matter? If Russia are lying to the outside world and their public, they might well be lying to themselves. That makes their decisions much less likely to be good ones. There are rumours that a lot of people in Moscow have been sacked for not having told the truth to Putin and the top bods. Does this make it more likely for their replacements to tell the truth? Perhaps, or perhaps the replacements will be more junior people who are *less* likely to tell Putin the bad news.
If Russia loses this war, it might be that a good part of the reason are the lies the regime has told, not just to other countries, not just to the public, but to themselves.
I've sort of opted out of the Ukraine discussion on PB for now, as anything not quite in line with the dominant view too quickly degenerates into personal suspicion, and I can't be bothered with it. But I think you're right, and it's an occupational hazard of autocracies. It's true in private life too - if you make people afraid to tell you you're making a mistake, you'll make more mistakes.
Something I don't properly understand about Russia is the extent to which censorship applies. We get the impression that it's all-encompassing, but then you get a pundit on a mainstream chat show saying "Maybe we should withdraw" and nothing seems to happen to them, so we wonder if it's a licensed trial ballooon or just a one-off. Navalny is clearly persecuted, but he's not been silenced. Some dissidents die in suspicious circumstances, others live apparently normal lives. Is the position that there is an absence of *reliable* protection of free speech, so people are afraid that they'll be victimised but it doesn't always happen and you can sometimes go off-message and get away with it?
I’m happy to argue with you on the merits, Nick. I don’t suspect any malign intent on your part when I think you’re wrong - and I don’t think there are many at all who do.
As far as the inconsistencies of the regime are concerned, I would guess it’s more a case of semi-chaotic organisation rather than a lack of intent to repress dissent. There’s also the point that when you’re controlling a pressure cooker, letting a little steam out from time to time is part of the process.
Can HYUFD, who is our resident expert on what God thinks, pitch in ?
Rwanda's main problem is it is full to the gunwales with Christians whose main takeaway from the bible is that God hates queers. I wonder what Welby thinks of that
Homosexuality is not illegal in Rwanda.
It is however in much of Muslim majority North Africa and the Middle East
No, but outlawing it was debated by Parliament as recently as 2010
Homosexuality is illegal under legacy UK colonial law in former colony and now majority Christian countries like Ghana and Malawi, so I really wouldn't be claiming this as a Christian vs Muslim thing
90% of the countries where homosexuality is banned globally are Muslim majority.
Now plenty of Muslims are not homophobic but that is the fact
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
Indeed, he's also a shrewd, malevolent and malign figure.
Hence why he was willing to stand in Jeremy Corbyn's Cabinet while his more principled colleagues resigned.
I don't think SKS is malevolent or malign. Then again, I don't think Johnson is either. The way things stand I'll probably be voting LD for local reasons next month, but at any GE I'd be voting Labour.
SKS's problem isn't that he's nasty, or malign, or even has particularly nasty or bad policies (of what we've seen so far). It's that he's bland. Grey. He needs some of that Blair magic.
Then again, people thought Major was grey, and it turned out he was a bit more colourful than people thought...
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
To be fair, Mr R, it would be highly unlikely that Christ would have spoken about abortion since, when it took place then, it was of the 'bathtub of gin' or 'noxious plant' variety.
And although I'm am ex-Christian, I think it unkind, and indeed inaccurate, to refer to our colleague as a 'pretendy-Christian'. I have no doubt that he sincerely believes himself to be a Christian, and is recognised as such by others. In my Father's House, Christ is reported as saying, there are many mansions.
he also sincerely believes himself to be a mainstream Conservative. HYUFD's self image is unreliable to the point of being useless.
The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.
Can HYUFD, who is our resident expert on what God thinks, pitch in ?
Exodus 23:9
Do not oppress a foreigner; you yourselves know how it feels to be foreigners, because you were foreigners in Egypt
Duteronomy 10:18
He defends the cause of the fatherless and the widow, and loves the foreigner residing among you, giving them food and clothing.
Matthew 25: 35-40
For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in,
I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.’
“Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink?
When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you?
When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?’
“The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’
Those are teachings, not judgment. Note Matthew 7.
God created the universe for His own amusement. He gave us free will so He doesn't have to write the script Himself. The Rwanda story could end up as a bloodbath or as a tear-jerking interlude of human reconciliation - God doesn't mind either way so long as it's interesting. It is, in any case, just a sub-plot to the main narrative.
I know all this because God told me Himself, and He agrees with me that Welby's a bit of a prat.
Not sure if this has been posted but this must be terminal for Boris desire to remain in office
The Prime Minister is accused of 'leading the celebrations' at rule-breaking leaving do...
"The event expected to create the biggest headache was on November 13, 2020, to mark the exit of Lee Cain, the No 10 director of communications, which insiders say was instigated by Johnson. “This wasn’t a leaving drinks,” said one source — until the prime minister arrived. “This was the usual press office Friday evening wash-up drinks. Boris came fumbling over, red box in tow, and he gathered the staff around the press office table, which did have bottles of alcohol on it. “He said he wanted to say a few words for Lee and started pouring drinks for people and drinking himself. He toasted him.” A photographer is said to have been present throughout and is thought to have captured pictures of Johnson." - The Sunday Times
Only faux-"Christians" like yourself get het up about abortion.
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
Psalm 139 of King David in the Bible is absolutely clear on the importance of the unborn child as created by God. Reducing the number of abortions is as important a Christian message as protecting refugees.
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?
The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.
I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.
But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
The Tory party now has the May problem in reverse. Just as the Cameron/May/centrist used to form the bulk of the party with the Brexiteers being the noisy outsiders which made it impossible for Boris to win in 2016 so they are now dominated by the Brexiteer wing with a much smaller and still quieter remainer section.
Hunt picks up that section no problem but, as with Boris in 2016, it is not enough right now. Boris was utterly ruthless in removing most of the heads of that hydra and they are not growing back. I can't see Hunt winning as a result but he is smart enough to triangulate and try to win the softer Brexiteers over. I don't think it will be enough.
Rather like Ruth Davidson decapitated the Scons and replanted them in her image. I did think that Mr Ross was steering a new course inj Scotland but at the moment he seems to have changed course and then lost his tiller uptide of Coirebhreacain.
I was surprised by his sudden movement back into the camp and frankly unpersuaded by the argument that Ukraine made Boris untouchable. I am not sure he has lost it completely but I would agree that his grip on the tiller seems unsteady and prone to unpredictable movement. Perhaps he was finding being outside Boris's camp a somewhat uncomfortable place to be.
Simple David, he is crap and I would not trust him to be able to the his own shoelaces.
I've sort of opted out of the Ukraine discussion on PB for now, as anything not quite in line with the dominant view too quickly degenerates into personal suspicion, and I can't be bothered with it. But I think you're right, and it's an occupational hazard of autocracies. It's true in private life too - if you make people afraid to tell you you're making a mistake, you'll make more mistakes.
Something I don't properly understand about Russia is the extent to which censorship applies. We get the impression that it's all-encompassing, but then you get a pundit on a mainstream chat show saying "Maybe we should withdraw" and nothing seems to happen to them, so we wonder if it's a licensed trial ballooon or just a one-off. Navalny is clearly persecuted, but he's not been silenced. Some dissidents die in suspicious circumstances, others live apparently normal lives. Is the position that there is an absence of *reliable* protection of free speech, so people are afraid that they'll be victimised but it doesn't always happen and you can sometimes go off-message and get away with it?
Not just autocracies. Many (most?) companies will get rid of those perceived to be "not team players". Masterchef and BGT have contestants whose friends and families have evidently not told them they are not actually very good cooks or singers. Even our democratically elected Prime Minister rails against doomsters and gloomsters, and his Cabinet tells us we have had enough of experts and to fuck business.
The old Popes had it right, appointing devil's advocates. This is why diversity is good (although its advocates shy away from considering their reasons).
And this imposed or self-imposed conformity is often a common factor in the scandals @Cyclefree draws to our attention.
Rant over.
Yes, the art of listening to criticism without being overwhelmed/paralysed by it is underrated in most walks of life. I remember an assistant who was completely fearless in telling me when she disagreed with me, while being ready to accept a contrary decision. If I said "I've listened to you and I understand your argument, but I've reached a different conclusion because X" it was perfectly acceptable to her, whereas if I'd said "Oh do shut up", as I was sometimes tempted to, she'd have resigned within a month. I never had a better assistant, and probably should have taken her advice more, but it was a healthy working relationship.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure that the qualities that lead to the top - drive, ambition, an element of ruthlessness - don't militate against willingness to listen.
Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?
The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.
Same applies to Tugendhat. The Tory membership will only choose a true Brexiteer believer.
If you look at the options that leaves them with Johnson is about as good as it gets. I think that is why Tory MPs are sitting on their hands. Get rid of Johnson and they might well end up with Patel or Raab or Dorries or Rees-Mogg as leader.
Leaving aside the issue of Brexit itself the worst legacy of the "Get Brexit Done" election has been the dire calibre of the government it left us with.
I’m heading away from the mountains today, and went to the train station to check times and buy my ticket (€4.90 - a staggering 390% higher than my French train fare!) first thing. I’m going to a place called Ripoll, which is in the right direction for the volcanic park (and so the tortoise sanctuary).
I had a couple of hours to kill, so decided to go for a stroll in the town and try to see one or two of the sights here. Turns out that Puigcerdà is seriously steep, and the sights were a long way up! I eventually made it to the top and found what is now the tourist office and was the bell tower of the 12th C parish church until the rest was destroyed in the civil war. I could have climbed to the top of it, but I’d done enough climbing and needed to find some beers. I’ve done that and am now enjoying one by the station waiting for my train.
After all that climbing, I hope you like the picture!
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?
The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.
I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.
But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
The Tory party now has the May problem in reverse. Just as the Cameron/May/centrist used to form the bulk of the party with the Brexiteers being the noisy outsiders which made it impossible for Boris to win in 2016 so they are now dominated by the Brexiteer wing with a much smaller and still quieter remainer section.
Hunt picks up that section no problem but, as with Boris in 2016, it is not enough right now. Boris was utterly ruthless in removing most of the heads of that hydra and they are not growing back. I can't see Hunt winning as a result but he is smart enough to triangulate and try to win the softer Brexiteers over. I don't think it will be enough.
Rather like Ruth Davidson decapitated the Scons and replanted them in her image. I did think that Mr Ross was steering a new course inj Scotland but at the moment he seems to have changed course and then lost his tiller uptide of Coirebhreacain.
I was surprised by his sudden movement back into the camp and frankly unpersuaded by the argument that Ukraine made Boris untouchable. I am not sure he has lost it completely but I would agree that his grip on the tiller seems unsteady and prone to unpredictable movement. Perhaps he was finding being outside Boris's camp a somewhat uncomfortable place to be.
Happy Easter all!
Personally, I think Ross only said Boris had to go because he thought he was going anyway, and wanted to get the credit for being quick off the mark in calling for it. Never a safe bet with Boris. He should have had a plan for him going and a plan for him staying.
I believe the Scottish Tories should be independent of the RUK Tories. There is room for a Scottish DUP/UUP. They could still have Unionism as a core principle, but it means they wouldn't be taken for granted. But it's clear that they won't just be let free like a butterfly - if they want it they will have to declare it unilaterally, and it could be messy. They will need a very wealthy donor or two probably. They should go for it.
If we are to talk about Johnson's "shrewdness" (which I agree with), can we discuss Keir Starmer's?
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
Indeed, he's also a shrewd, malevolent and malign figure.
Hence why he was willing to stand in Jeremy Corbyn's Cabinet while his more principled colleagues resigned.
I don't think SKS is malevolent or malign. Then again, I don't think Johnson is either. The way things stand I'll probably be voting LD for local reasons next month, but at any GE I'd be voting Labour.
SKS's problem isn't that he's nasty, or malign, or even has particularly nasty or bad policies (of what we've seen so far). It's that he's bland. Grey. He needs some of that Blair magic.
Then again, people thought Major was grey, and it turned out he was a bit more colourful than people thought...
He lacks Blair's magic but one thing he shares with Blair and Boris is he's an unprincipled chancer who will throw anyone under the bus to further his own career prospects.
While anyone decent in Labour resigned from Corbyn's Cabinet over the way Corbyn was treating Jews etc, as @CorrectHorseBattery correctly noted Starmer put furthering his own career ahead of any principles of willingness to stand up for Jews or anyone else.
Like Blair and Boris he'll say or do anything, stand with or betray anyone, in order to put himself first. Which is why he's now where he is instead of someone with any principles.
I’m heading away from the mountains today, and went to the train station to check times and buy my ticket (€4.90 - a staggering 390% higher than my French train fare!) first thing. I’m going to a place called Ripoll, which is in the right direction for the volcanic park (and so the tortoise sanctuary).
I had a couple of hours to kill, so decided to go for a stroll in the town and try to see one or two of the sights here. Turns out that Puigcerdà is seriously steep, and the sights were a long way up! I eventually made it to the top and found what is now the tourist office and was the bell tower of the 12th C parish church until the rest was destroyed in the civil war. I could have climbed to the top of it, but I’d done enough climbing and needed to find some beers. I’ve done that and am now enjoying one by the station waiting for my train.
After all that climbing, I hope you like the picture!
Comments
Here in my dimension our Boris Johnson is a malign, malevolent chancer.
That’s the government limiting the support available from the taxpayer and asking individuals to take responsibility for their own decisions
Worryingly for Sunak Portillo and Miliband lost leadership elections to become leader of the opposition too.
I would though now put Ben Wallace rather than Jeremy Hunt as likely next Conservative leader after Johnson, although either would be good
Malign and malevolent is merely a value judgement, but if someone is going to be a chancer, then having shrewdness and judgement are probably useful skills for being such a chancer.
Blair was the same, he was an equally shrewd chancer.
other publications follow - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/in-the-tories-parallel-moral-universe-a-serial-liar-is-lauded-as-a-winner-sbs2xr3l5.
They should at least credit OGH.
The constituency has changed, as have many former mining areas, with a lot of new building and warehouse type work.
Labour should not consider it a lost cause, but rather consider why it fails to appeal there. It isn't a posh bit of the county.
"She said she was "totally disgusted" at the state of the Llanberis path on Saturday morning with stools in paper cups and under stones.
Snowdonia National Park Authority said nothing unusual had been reported."
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2012/apr/24/jeremy-hunt-murdochs-bskyb-bid
It's what has got him to the top of the pole, despite his manifest unfitness for being there.
The reports of atrocities, and the realisation that the bear has not just been poked but has been wounded, has changed opinion among the public and decision-makers, to the point that there’s now a good chance to completely hollow out the Russian forces. The US also has by far the biggest supply of ground-based vehicles and air-based logistics capability, they know they can make a huge difference to the outcome of the war, and set Russia back decades in their global ambitions. Which means they are free to concentrate on the rise of China.
The Americans must be looking at Russia and wondering just how easily they could defeat them in a conventional war. It would be a turkey shoot I expect.
Starmer is changing this.
Boris and Rishi continue to embarrass and this coming week looks as if it could be one of the most embarrassing for the conservative party as Boris seemingly is going to 'beg' to stay in office
I just hope sufficient of his mps remember integrity matters and sends both Boris and Rishi packing and start the process to elect a new leader
Enough is enough, Boris's time is over, but if his mps keep him in office then they deserve to hand Starmer a landslide in 24
Boris needs to get a grip going forward on domestic politics, as does Sunak
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1515604145759305733?s=20&t=tIS81rXqQB2PxtJfLfJQ3Q
Was he shrewd to back Brexit, other than for issues of personal political gain? Has he been shrewd in his financial transactions, both privately and in office?
He is a relentless self-publicising populist, but does that make him £63m invisible garden bridge shrewd?
Rwanda plan is ‘against the judgment of God’, says archbishop of Canterbury
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/16/rwanda-plan-is-against-the-judgment-of-god-says-archbishop
Can HYUFD, who is our resident expert on what God thinks, pitch in ?
I am surprised you are willing to countenance his behaviour, and I would ask do you value integrity ?
On this day of all days surely even a pretendy-Christian like you might want to think about Christ's actual teachings. I can think of many of Christ's sermons about the poor and needy etc, even one about paying taxes, but not a single one from Christ himself about foetuses or any of the other nonsense you work yourself up about.
Maybe Welby is inspired by the teachings of Christ himself in what he's speaking about, rather than whatever bothers you. But if he wants to shape politics, perhaps he should consider running for election.
What's more, with the gates of Mordor opening to send forth its army of looting, murdering, paedo-rapist orcs, NATO looks like the good guys, helping out the lovely hobbits of the Shire. There has been virtually no push-back outside Russia regarding the weapons stream of Ruskie-killing kit heading east. And why should there be? Russia sent us their Novichok. We are returning the favour with NLAWs.
You can feel the butt-hurt in Putin's whinging about being outgunned by far superior toys. Tough. Don't being a tank to an anti-tank weapon fight.
https://friends.carenetdane.org/2019/01/17/what-does-the-bible-say-about-abortion/
I also don't need any lectures on my Christianity from you. Christ was also clear in the Parable of the Talents about the importance of thrift and savings
Do not oppress a foreigner; you yourselves know how it feels to be foreigners, because you were foreigners in Egypt
Duteronomy 10:18
He defends the cause of the fatherless and the widow, and loves the foreigner residing among you, giving them food and clothing.
Matthew 25: 35-40
For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in,
I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.’
“Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink?
When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you?
When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?’
“The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’
Something I don't properly understand about Russia is the extent to which censorship applies. We get the impression that it's all-encompassing, but then you get a pundit on a mainstream chat show saying "Maybe we should withdraw" and nothing seems to happen to them, so we wonder if it's a licensed trial ballooon or just a one-off. Navalny is clearly persecuted, but he's not been silenced. Some dissidents die in suspicious circumstances, others live apparently normal lives. Is the position that there is an absence of *reliable* protection of free speech, so people are afraid that they'll be victimised but it doesn't always happen and you can sometimes go off-message and get away with it?
It is however in much of Muslim majority North Africa and the Middle East
Welby is quoting from Christ himself, but I guess faux-Christians have no interest in Christ's sermons.
1 Keep Johnson.
2 Ditch the man, but try to keep the appeal, the va-va-voom... Truss? We've not heard much from her recently.
3 Repudiate Johnsonian. Hunt would be a step too far, surely. Would Wallace be sufficiently different? And would the party be up for that?
In terms of policy, what would a government with 30 months left do? Steer to the centre, or fulfill the dreams the Conservative right have had for years while they can?
The *Real* Reason Jared Kushner was Given $2 Billion to Invest by MBS
https://vickyward.substack.com/p/exclusive-the-real-reason-jared-kushner?s=w
And although I'm am ex-Christian, I think it unkind, and indeed inaccurate, to refer to our colleague as a 'pretendy-Christian'. I have no doubt that he sincerely believes himself to be a Christian, and is recognised as such by others.
In my Father's House, Christ is reported as saying, there are many mansions.
The old Popes had it right, appointing devil's advocates. This is why diversity is good (although its advocates shy away from considering their reasons).
And this imposed or self-imposed conformity is often a common factor in the scandals @Cyclefree draws to our attention.
Rant over.
Note Matthew 7.
Which is what bothers me, really. A strongly ideological Cabinet, a majority of 80, a chance to go out in a blaze of glory...
Homosexuality is illegal under legacy UK colonial law in former colony and now majority Christian countries like Ghana and Malawi, so I really wouldn't be claiming this as a Christian vs Muslim thing
For a man who apparently can't do politics, in two years he has removed Corbyn, taken over the NEC, essentially resolved the bulk of the anti-Semitism issue with praise from the Jewish community, abandoned all of the nutty Corbyn policies, regained Labour's image on NATO and defence and turned a 26 polling deficit into an 11 point lead. And now leads on the economy and best PM, things which Labour hasn't achieved in well over a decade.
For a man who can't do politics, that's quite an achievement. And he did by essentially letting the idiots out themselves.
And he's done the same for Johnson - and now Sunak. I think he's very, very clever.
And if the Old Testament prohibited something, it was very specific about its being prohibited. Your appeal to metaphor is poor exegesis.
The lack of a majority is part of what made the last Parliament so much worse and led to the large majority being granted.
The next large majority the public gives will probably be to Labour not the Tories though.
I gave up at this, I'm afraid:
Someone mentioned that if you properly shuffle a pack of cards, the probability of the cards dealt ever being repeated in the same order in a later deal were astronomical (being blocked, I don’t have the exact wording)
It takes fully half a second to log out of twitter so you *can* read it...
They got Brexit done - but if this is all they have to say for it, they will lose. The public have moved on and are fed up with Brexit. CoL is the key now - and with such a large majority the public are wondering why the Tories aren't doing anything to help.
He has of course been a touch lucky that the Tories have made so many daft mistakes in somewhat trivial areas repeatedly leaving an open goal for Starmer & Co.
Hence why he was willing to stand in Jeremy Corbyn's Cabinet while his more principled colleagues resigned.
As far as the inconsistencies of the regime are concerned, I would guess it’s more a case of semi-chaotic organisation rather than a lack of intent to repress dissent.
There’s also the point that when you’re controlling a pressure cooker, letting a little steam out from time to time is part of the process.
Now plenty of Muslims are not homophobic but that is the fact
SKS's problem isn't that he's nasty, or malign, or even has particularly nasty or bad policies (of what we've seen so far). It's that he's bland. Grey. He needs some of that Blair magic.
Then again, people thought Major was grey, and it turned out he was a bit more colourful than people thought...
I know all this because God told me Himself, and He agrees with me that Welby's a bit of a prat.
The Prime Minister is accused of 'leading the celebrations' at rule-breaking leaving do...
"The event expected to create the biggest headache was on November 13, 2020, to mark the exit of Lee Cain, the No 10 director of communications, which insiders say was instigated by Johnson. “This wasn’t a leaving drinks,” said one source — until the prime minister arrived. “This was the usual press office Friday evening wash-up drinks. Boris came fumbling over, red box in tow, and he gathered the staff around the press office table, which did have bottles of alcohol on it. “He said he wanted to say a few words for Lee and started pouring drinks for people and drinking himself. He toasted him.” A photographer is said to have been present throughout and is thought to have captured pictures of Johnson." - The Sunday Times
Unfortunately, I'm not sure that the qualities that lead to the top - drive, ambition, an element of ruthlessness - don't militate against willingness to listen.
If you look at the options that leaves them with Johnson is about as good as it gets. I think that is why Tory MPs are sitting on their hands. Get rid of Johnson and they might well end up with Patel or Raab or Dorries or Rees-Mogg as leader.
Leaving aside the issue of Brexit itself the worst legacy of the "Get Brexit Done" election has been the dire calibre of the government it left us with.
I had a couple of hours to kill, so decided to go for a stroll in the town and try to see one or two of the sights here. Turns out that Puigcerdà is seriously steep, and the sights were a long way up! I eventually made it to the top and found what is now the tourist office and was the bell tower of the 12th C parish church until the rest was destroyed in the civil war. I could have climbed to the top of it, but I’d done enough climbing and needed to find some beers. I’ve done that and am now enjoying one by the station waiting for my train.
After all that climbing, I hope you like the picture!
Personally, I think Ross only said Boris had to go because he thought he was going anyway, and wanted to get the credit for being quick off the mark in calling for it. Never a safe bet with Boris. He should have had a plan for him going and a plan for him staying.
I believe the Scottish Tories should be independent of the RUK Tories. There is room for a Scottish DUP/UUP. They could still have Unionism as a core principle, but it means they wouldn't be taken for granted. But it's clear that they won't just be let free like a butterfly - if they want it they will have to declare it unilaterally, and it could be messy. They will need a very wealthy donor or two probably. They should go for it.
While anyone decent in Labour resigned from Corbyn's Cabinet over the way Corbyn was treating Jews etc, as @CorrectHorseBattery correctly noted Starmer put furthering his own career ahead of any principles of willingness to stand up for Jews or anyone else.
Like Blair and Boris he'll say or do anything, stand with or betray anyone, in order to put himself first. Which is why he's now where he is instead of someone with any principles.
What strange traditions we have.
In many countries of the world, Trump would have been jailed/executed for his Treason.