Is Rishi Sunak the new Theresa May? – politicalbetting.com
Is Rishi Sunak the new Theresa May? – politicalbetting.com
The speed of Rishi Sunak’s fall from grace from nailed on next Conservative leader and Prime Minister to someone the public really doesn’t like is astonishing and is one of the more remarkable things in the history of British politics.
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Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.
https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267
Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.
Lol
The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?
Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.
If we are talking about a new leader after the Conservatives lose power, which is the likeliest outcome, then I suspect there will be a complete re-set in the party. This may come after a lot of soul-searching.
So my hunch is that the next leader will come from nowhere. Or nowhere now. Not one of Johnson's jolly joshers but a fresh new face.
Sunak isn't that bad.
1. Theresa May's mass dither over Brexit
2. The Remainer parliament which I even I will concede was ridiculous
3. Jeremy Corbyn
4. Jeremy Corbyn
5. Jeremy Corbyn
Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?
Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock
?
But he is as devoid of political luck as much as Boris is endowed with it.
Starmer is just about tolerable in his utter tediousness
."...This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
Dear for her reputation through the world,
Is now leased out—I die pronouncing it—
Like to a tenement or pelting farm.
England, bound in with the triumphant sea,
Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
Of wat’ry Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds.
That England that was wont to conquer others
Hath made a shameful conquest of itself...."
The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.
It's over for the tories. They will have had 14 years in office and they will have delivered Brexit. It has felt to me like an awfully long time.
Whether it leads to a '97 victory is unlikely. Labour are coming from far further back. But they don't need to win outright. They only need about 46 tory seat losses* and I would say that is now a betting certainty.
* Even the 46 mark is on the assumption that the DUP would shack up with them but even that is unlikely
It looks likely to me now that the LibDems will make significant inroads in the south, especially around London and Surrey. And Labour look like taking chunks out of the red wall.
It's almost like Labour in reverse: somehow the tories will have to win back the middle class decent tories whilst not pissing off their newfound English nationalists.
Maybe Britain itself is just irrevocably split. Well done David Cameron.
Latest leader satisfaction findings - Scotland
Nicola Sturgeon +16
Anas Sarwar +3
Keir Starmer -1
Alex Cole-Hamilton-8
Patrick Harvie -10
Lorna Slater -10
Douglas Ross -27
Boris Johnson -53
(BMG Research/The Herald; 1,012; 25-31 March)
Sadly Sunak and Davey were omitted by The Herald, but if other trends are taken into account, Sunak will be down near Johnson and Davey between Slater and Ross.
Leaving out his broadside on wokeness (I'm proud to be woke) I think there's a growing sense that the tories are done. I've friends, Conservative voters, saying the same thing. They are tired of all this now and feel there's need for change. That's a terribly damaging meme for them.
And Leon's right: Starmer is tedious. He's really dull. But I guess we're going to have to put up with less flamboyant premiership. A serious leader for serious times.
The Sunday Times understands that former nationalist chief whip Patrick Grady and frontbencher Patricia Gibson have received the findings of an independent investigation and have been asked to respond.
Grady, the Glasgow North MP, stood aside from his role in March last year after claims emerged that he had groped two male researchers at an SNP Christmas party in 2016. It was also claimed that Grady, 42, “inappropriately” touched an SNP staff member, then aged 19, in a London pub.
At the time he stood down, it emerged that the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had been aware of “a concern” about Grady prior to a harassment complaint being made against him. The party said concerns were raised in February 2018 but that no complaint had been made at that point and the matter was dealt with “informally”….
… A friend of the complainant who accused the MPs recently told how he believes he has been driven to ill health by a lack of support from the party since raising concerns, with scant regard paid to his health and wellbeing.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sexual-harassment-complaints-against-snp-mps-are-upheld-dlb7dfwjf
What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
Actually, in case any offence was taken, I must apologise to any octopus reading this.
Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
Chances of winning (on new boundaries):
Orkney & Shetland (unchanged)
SLD 57%
SNP 43%
Edinburgh West
SNP 54%
SLD 45%
North East Fife
SNP 73%
SLD 27%
Kelvin North (mostly the former East Dunbartonshire)
SNP 87%
SLD 12%
SLab 1%
Highland North (mostly the former Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross)
SNP 87%
SLD 13%
The Tories are basically a UKIP circa 2016 tribute act with literally nothing to offer but Brexit and culture war; and that’s at a time when the cost of living squeeze is only just beginning, the future of the UK is under serious threat and some pretty fundamental, deep-rooted, societal inequities - affecting younger people especially - are coming to boiling point. Throw in the grift, the lies and the serial incompetence, and it’s not a great look.
All that said, despite Labour’s undoubted progress under Starmer, his and the party’s continued weaknesses do offer the possibility of further Tory electoral success. If they can make the next election about penises and immigrants they have a chance.
In 4 innings Somerset have averaged a mean score of 144.
If red ball cricket is going to be revived by the likes of Rob Key then they could start by addressing the pitches. We need some hard grassless Sheffield Shield wickets which take spin later on.
Still, it's good to see county matches restored to the middle of the season. Next step is to boot out this ridiculous Hundred. Keep T20 because it's an accepted international formula and it works.
But what do we know? We're only the people who watch it!
Did you ever read this article on who the Hundred was pitched to?
https://www.thecricketer.com/topics/opinion/who_on_earth_is_the_hundred_for_we_try_to_identify_the_ecb's_mysterious_'new_audience'.html
Those by-election results this Thursday, on top of Chesham & Amersham, really ought to be sending shockwaves through the party. They were huge swings to the LibDems. I can see the Conservatives losing key seats in the south.
So, no, I don't think the party is going to be united after their general election defeat. The knives will really come out and somehow they're going to have to try to win back all those middle class southerners that they have alienated whilst at the same time retaining their northern nationalists.
I agree with your points.
I think I also read that it was really a fit of pique about how successful the IPL franchise is. The ECB probably didn't like the idea of India becoming the global centre of short format cricket?
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.
He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.
Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.
Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/12ba7432-bdb8-11ec-84c4-70cc6ae427fb?shareToken=1b693289178fa0f27f5180ea27c5dcad
"The result of the investigation by Westminster authorities has been referred to an independent expert panel, which can recommend suspension or expulsion from the House."
A recall petition is possible if an MP is "barred from the House of Commons for 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days"
And the seat of Glasgow North is somewhat interesting:
SNP 46.%, Lab 31.4%, Con 10.5%, LD 6.6%, Green 3.6, BXT (who?) 0.9%.
Looks a long shot for Labour but if recent polling showing an upturn is correct, not impossible, if a by-election had been forced by recall.
There are three separate contingencies in there that would have to happen, but it's possible to imagine it being a significant development.
I withdraw my slur that Boris Johnson is the worst Conservative MP.
His view is that Finland will join NATO and that would be a good thing, but he was hopeful that it doesn't mean the end of Finlands self reliance in defence (ie everyone doing military service, farmers being given landmines, etc)
In terms of Russia, his view was that the failings in Ukraine mean that Putin is in deep trouble, hence the 'arrest' of so many military generals.
He thinks that nothing will really change though, Putin will get eventually replaced with another Putin, there will be no great civilisational or westernisation in Russia, the new guy will be another nationalist.
The west will 'reset' the terms of economic engagement with them, but it will be much as before, a mutually beneficial economic relationship with an oligarchy.
In terms of Ukraine, he thought that the eventual deal will be that Crimea and other contested places will be 'leased' to Russia.
But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
"... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "
This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.
This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.
Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.
Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.
Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out
"Bridgen later called a board meeting where he allegedly called the directors, whom he deemed to be on his brother’s side, a “team of wankers” and “liars and thieves” and asked to be reinstated on up to £60,000 a year for “half a day to one day’s project work” a month.
For five years after being elected Bridgen had been paid £93,000 a year to attend monthly board meetings. Ellis recalled: “Andrew said that he was effectively bankrupt and could not live on an MP’s salary.”
The directors rejected his request."
Like the SNP MP who I talked about earlier, it's possible to imagine a sequence of events leading to a recall election. But it's one of the safest Tory seats in Britain.
'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'
Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.
He is known in media circles as 'Rentagob'. Whenever hacks need an MP's quote on anything they phone Andrew Bridgen.
Around 70 complaints about 56 MPs have been received by the ICGS, according to Westminster insiders. It is understood that these range from allegations of sexual harassment to more serious wrongdoing.
In most instances it is believed that the complaints have been made by third parties and are yet to be corroborated.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/56-mps-face-sexual-misconduct-claims-znv2m9x8s
Ultimately that will help the party because we won't be left with the Daily Mail whingeing for the next 50 years about how they knived their most successful leader in the back.
Etonians have not of late served this country terribly well, that's all
There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
What this [Blair/Cameron] centrism failed to perceive is that it was not capitalism that brought down communism but the forces of nationalism and religion. It was the trade union Solidarity and the Catholic Church in Poland and an unconquered sense of national identity in the Baltic region that toppled the Soviet state. Economic stagnation may have been a factor, though for most of Soviet history much of the population was impoverished even by comparison with the last decades of tsarism. Gorbachev’s attempt to reform the system triggered its collapse.
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a
Have a nice day everyone. Be as nice as possible.
I feel in a decent mood. First proper night's sleep since my broken rib: 8 solid hours. I am also feeling increasingly confident that the tide has turned. Conservative loyalists will have to forgive me for a rising sense of hope.
Also, Russia are fighting the C4ISR and logistics of NATO. They're just doing it inside Ukraine but, if this drags on, they are going to start fighting it outside Ukraine too. Fuck knows what happens then.
Where on Earth do you get that from? I even liked one of your posts yesterday, when you made a good point. Don't take people taking you to task for comments you make (e.g. your desired 'green' lifestyle) with personal animosity.
The first wave of tanks heading to Ukraine contained No.1 parade uniforms - they really thought they were going to be met with flowers and waving Russian flags all the way to the Ukranian capital.
The push back in Eastern and Southern areas will be a slower and more difficult task, but it’s important that the weapons keep coming. Russia has much more limited men and materiel than everyone thought, the task of sending them back to where they came is not impossible - so long as the Ukranian supply lines from the West stay open.
Russia has very limited manufacturing capability for tanks and weapons, whereas the West has almost unlimited amounts of the same - limited only by Western political willingness to supply and train Ukraine.
I once tried to explain what a Fisher matrix was to Meeks ... I was told law is more important than mathematics.
And, since it's Sunday, one can quote Jeremiah on that happy future:
29 In those days they shall say no more, The fathers have eaten a sour grape, and the children's teeth are set on edge.
30 But every one shall die for his own iniquity: every man that eateth the sour grape, his teeth shall be set on edge.
However, if you look at the things we know, Ukraine's 'lies' on things like equipment destroyed is a lot less egregious. Open-source figures (which will be lowball) are more than half Ukraine's figures for things like tanks, which are easier to verify (things like aircraft are much harder to verify). Russia's figures for the amount of Ukrainian kit destroyed are much more out of sync with the open-source figures. There are good reasons why this might be; but it should be noted that Russia's figures have nearly all of Ukraine's pre-war tank fleet destroyed - including, I believe, the stored ones. This does seem out of sync with what we are seeing on the ground.
Then there are the obvious lies by the Russian side - for instance their line on the Moskva sinking is almost as ridiculous as their MH17 lies. Or their entire justification for the war, which is based on lies, mistruths and a perverted sense of national identities.
Why does this matter? If Russia are lying to the outside world and their public, they might well be lying to themselves. That makes their decisions much less likely to be good ones. There are rumours that a lot of people in Moscow have been sacked for not having told the truth to Putin and the top bods. Does this make it more likely for their replacements to tell the truth? Perhaps, or perhaps the replacements will be more junior people who are *less* likely to tell Putin the bad news.
If Russia loses this war, it might be that a good part of the reason are the lies the regime has told, not just to other countries, not just to the public, but to themselves.
That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out
Hunt picks up that section no problem but, as with Boris in 2016, it is not enough right now. Boris was utterly ruthless in removing most of the heads of that hydra and they are not growing back. I can't see Hunt winning as a result but he is smart enough to triangulate and try to win the softer Brexiteers over. I don't think it will be enough.
More seriously, this story in today's Sunday Times is appalling.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-new-thalidomide-d5lmlwvdc
The institutional negligence is often seen in other scandals - eg see the tainted blood scandal. What I find hard to forgive is the refusal to pay full compensation promptly - thus prolonging the suffering. This too is a feature of similar scandals. The indifference we show these people is shocking and keeps happening over and over again.
See https://medium.com/@cyclefree2/the-price-of-indifference-c25d96c64e0b
NATO has far superior logistics to Russia and if NATO are willing to provide the backbone of Ukraine's logistics then I think a Russian defeat is not only not "unthinkable" as some like to claim, but increasingly probable. Nothing is certain, but its more likely than not for me.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61128854