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Is Rishi Sunak the new Theresa May? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 23 in General
imageIs Rishi Sunak the new Theresa May? – politicalbetting.com

The speed of Rishi Sunak’s fall from grace from nailed on next Conservative leader and Prime Minister to someone the public really doesn’t like is astonishing and is one of the more remarkable things in the history of British politics.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    Unless Jeremy Corbyn is Hunt's opponent in the members ballot, then I don't see a path to Number Ten for him.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    edited April 17
    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    rcs1000 said:

    Unless Jeremy Corbyn is Hunt's opponent in the members ballot, then I don't see a path to Number Ten for him.

    Yes, he’s allowed himself to become the new Ken Clarke.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394

    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.

    It’s odd, because normally we’d say someone doing that had missed their chance, but the normal (political!) rules don’t apply to Johnson.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Good thread.

    If we are talking about a new leader after the Conservatives lose power, which is the likeliest outcome, then I suspect there will be a complete re-set in the party. This may come after a lot of soul-searching.

    So my hunch is that the next leader will come from nowhere. Or nowhere now. Not one of Johnson's jolly joshers but a fresh new face.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Good morning, everyone.

    Sunak isn't that bad.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 17
    Re. Boris Redux I think political historians will come to view the 2019 Election as an aberration. It came about because of:

    1. Theresa May's mass dither over Brexit
    2. The Remainer parliament which I even I will concede was ridiculous
    3. Jeremy Corbyn
    4. Jeremy Corbyn
    5. Jeremy Corbyn
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.

    What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it

    Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?

    Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock

    ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202

    Good morning, everyone.

    Sunak isn't that bad.

    Perhaps not.
    But he is as devoid of political luck as much as Boris is endowed with it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    The Tories need to go. Even I’m done with them, and I despise Labour and its hideous Wokeness. Time for a new chapter

    Starmer is just about tolerable in his utter tediousness
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Notable that so many think Johnson and Sunak broke the rules "in a similar manner", given that the former is not only implicated in many more incidents than the former, but also that Johnson is the person responsible for all the rest who did.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Leon said:

    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.

    What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it

    Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?

    Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock

    ?
    It was very odd and 'suddenly' is right. If I recall the press were even assembled waiting for the Johnson coronation when Gove announced his volte-face.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.
    Those fond of the sceptres isle stuff seem to have forgotten how it concludes:

    ."...This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
    Dear for her reputation through the world,
    Is now leased out—I die pronouncing it—
    Like to a tenement or pelting farm.
    England, bound in with the triumphant sea,
    Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
    Of wat’ry Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
    With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds.
    That England that was wont to conquer others
    Hath made a shameful conquest of itself...."
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 17
    I think all but the most partisan on here now recognise that the tories are done. We're living through 1992-7 again and it's not pretty. No Starmer isn't Blair but equally the standard of living and economic crisis is a shocker compared to back then.

    It's over for the tories. They will have had 14 years in office and they will have delivered Brexit. It has felt to me like an awfully long time.

    Whether it leads to a '97 victory is unlikely. Labour are coming from far further back. But they don't need to win outright. They only need about 46 tory seat losses* and I would say that is now a betting certainty.

    * Even the 46 mark is on the assumption that the DUP would shack up with them but even that is unlikely
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.

    Ahem, the team in fourth place is not foreign owned.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.

    What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it

    Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?

    Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock

    ?
    It was very odd and 'suddenly' is right. If I recall the press were even assembled waiting for the Johnson coronation when Gove announced his volte-face.
    I’ve never heard a convincing and plausible explanation. I’ve heard lots of gossip, but nothing adds up
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,000
    Leon said:

    The Tories need to go. Even I’m done with them, and I despise Labour and its hideous Wokeness. Time for a new chapter

    Starmer is just about tolerable in his utter tediousness

    A bit early to be pissed Sean
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 17

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    We often hear tales of how a party will split but I do wonder if the Conservatives might? How on earth are they now going to reconcile the two main factions of the party?

    It looks likely to me now that the LibDems will make significant inroads in the south, especially around London and Surrey. And Labour look like taking chunks out of the red wall.

    It's almost like Labour in reverse: somehow the tories will have to win back the middle class decent tories whilst not pissing off their newfound English nationalists.

    Maybe Britain itself is just irrevocably split. Well done David Cameron.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.

    Ahem, the team in fourth place is not foreign owned.

    West Ham are seventh, pending today's game. The fourth-placed team, Spuds, is owned by ENIC which is a citizen of nowhere, or rather the Bahamas.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.

    Ahem, the team in fourth place is not foreign owned.

    Yes it is.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,626
    Tories aren’t going to be winning any popularity contests in Scotland.

    Latest leader satisfaction findings - Scotland

    Nicola Sturgeon +16
    Anas Sarwar +3
    Keir Starmer -1
    Alex Cole-Hamilton-8
    Patrick Harvie -10
    Lorna Slater -10
    Douglas Ross -27
    Boris Johnson -53

    (BMG Research/The Herald; 1,012; 25-31 March)

    Sadly Sunak and Davey were omitted by The Herald, but if other trends are taken into account, Sunak will be down near Johnson and Davey between Slater and Ross.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 17

    Leon said:

    The Tories need to go. Even I’m done with them, and I despise Labour and its hideous Wokeness. Time for a new chapter

    Starmer is just about tolerable in his utter tediousness

    A bit early to be pissed Sean
    This is a bit like calling someone a troll. It gets rather tiresome.

    Leaving out his broadside on wokeness (I'm proud to be woke) I think there's a growing sense that the tories are done. I've friends, Conservative voters, saying the same thing. They are tired of all this now and feel there's need for change. That's a terribly damaging meme for them.

    And Leon's right: Starmer is tedious. He's really dull. But I guess we're going to have to put up with less flamboyant premiership. A serious leader for serious times.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    Complaints against two SNP MPs accused of sexual harassment have been upheld by a Westminster authority.

    The Sunday Times understands that former nationalist chief whip Patrick Grady and frontbencher Patricia Gibson have received the findings of an independent investigation and have been asked to respond.

    Grady, the Glasgow North MP, stood aside from his role in March last year after claims emerged that he had groped two male researchers at an SNP Christmas party in 2016. It was also claimed that Grady, 42, “inappropriately” touched an SNP staff member, then aged 19, in a London pub.

    At the time he stood down, it emerged that the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had been aware of “a concern” about Grady prior to a harassment complaint being made against him. The party said concerns were raised in February 2018 but that no complaint had been made at that point and the matter was dealt with “informally”….

    … A friend of the complainant who accused the MPs recently told how he believes he has been driven to ill health by a lack of support from the party since raising concerns, with scant regard paid to his health and wellbeing.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sexual-harassment-complaints-against-snp-mps-are-upheld-dlb7dfwjf
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,626

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.
    Almost all Scottish media is foreign-owned. That is even more debilitating for a country.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    Complaints against two SNP MPs accused of sexual harassment have been upheld by a Westminster authority.

    The Sunday Times understands that former nationalist chief whip Patrick Grady and frontbencher Patricia Gibson have received the findings of an independent investigation and have been asked to respond.

    Grady, the Glasgow North MP, stood aside from his role in March last year after claims emerged that he had groped two male researchers at an SNP Christmas party in 2016. It was also claimed that Grady, 42, “inappropriately” touched an SNP staff member, then aged 19, in a London pub.

    At the time he stood down, it emerged that the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had been aware of “a concern” about Grady prior to a harassment complaint being made against him. The party said concerns were raised in February 2018 but that no complaint had been made at that point and the matter was dealt with “informally”….

    … A friend of the complainant who accused the MPs recently told how he believes he has been driven to ill health by a lack of support from the party since raising concerns, with scant regard paid to his health and wellbeing.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sexual-harassment-complaints-against-snp-mps-are-upheld-dlb7dfwjf

    Or perhaps, driven to ill health by a sudden realisation that he had been a grotesque, libidinous octopus, with scant regard paid to the mental health and wellbeing of the women he groped?

    Actually, in case any offence was taken, I must apologise to any octopus reading this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
    Already it's starting to look as though relegation will be decided this summer not by performances on the pitch but by noises off - with Somerset about to be penalised for an unfit wicket, and Yorkshire for, well...

    Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
    Already it's starting to look as though relegation will be decided this summer not by performances on the pitch but by noises off - with Somerset about to be penalised for an unfit wicket, and Yorkshire for, well...

    Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
    They are, I think, carrying a delayed penalty from a pre-Covid offence as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
    Already it's starting to look as though relegation will be decided this summer not by performances on the pitch but by noises off - with Somerset about to be penalised for an unfit wicket, and Yorkshire for, well...

    Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
    They are, I think, carrying a delayed penalty from a pre-Covid offence as well.
    Not Somerset. That was applied last year.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,626

    rcs1000 said:

    🗳NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

    🌹LAB: 43% (+3)
    🌳CON: 32% (-2)
    🔶LDM: 9% (-1)

    via, @DeltapollUK • Changes w/08-11/03

    @bigjohnowls please explain

    Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.

    Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
    We're almost at 1997 levels of support now.
    But without the 55 Scottish seats, it’s a harder mountain to climb.
    Indeed. That Deltapoll is fantastic for Labour, especially for Scottish Labour (at 29% compared to 18.6% at the last UK GE). However, Baxter gives the following seat distribution, based on the new boundaries:

    SNP 54 seats (+6)
    SLab 3 seats (+2)
    SCon 0 seats (-6)
    SLD 0 seats (-2)

    Starmer needs to introduce PR.
    I don't think the LDs would be reduced to zero in Scotland, thanks to the magic of tactical voting.

    They might drop to a single seat (O&S), but I think that's the limit of their 2024 drop. (Of course we don't have final boundaries yet, but my guess is that they lose the successor seat to CS&ER, and then have two ultra marginals around Edinburgh West and St Andrews/Fife NE.)
    No way do the Lib Dems lose Edinburgh West ever again, of that I am confident. They are turning it into a complete fortress at a local level. I actually think Edinburgh West would be their last seat standing in Scotland as O&S has really weird local dynamics and Shetland has swung heavily towards the SNP even if LDs/Carmichael have more support in Orkney. Fife NE is a possible loss with boundaries but they might still overcome the boundary changes.

    I think they are also looking somewhat more resilient in Caithness now even if the SNP is favourites there.

    I can see their vote completely dissipating in East Dunbartonshire to Con/Lab now Swinson has gone though.
    Martin Baxter says hello!

    Chances of winning (on new boundaries):

    Orkney & Shetland (unchanged)
    SLD 57%
    SNP 43%

    Edinburgh West
    SNP 54%
    SLD 45%

    North East Fife
    SNP 73%
    SLD 27%

    Kelvin North (mostly the former East Dunbartonshire)
    SNP 87%
    SLD 12%
    SLab 1%

    Highland North (mostly the former Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross)
    SNP 87%
    SLD 13%


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    Heathener said:

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    We often hear tales of how a party will split but I do wonder if the Conservatives might? How on earth are they now going to reconcile the two main factions of the party?

    It looks likely to me now that the LibDems will make significant inroads in the south, especially around London and Surrey. And Labour look like taking chunks out of the red wall.

    It's almost like Labour in reverse: somehow the tories will have to win back the middle class decent tories whilst not pissing off their newfound English nationalists.

    Maybe Britain itself is just irrevocably split. Well done David Cameron.
    I think the Tories are pretty united. The big purge has already happened. There is a rational rump clinging on, of which Hunt is a part, but that group is now as influential as the SCG is in Labour - ie, almost totally irrelevant.

    The Tories are basically a UKIP circa 2016 tribute act with literally nothing to offer but Brexit and culture war; and that’s at a time when the cost of living squeeze is only just beginning, the future of the UK is under serious threat and some pretty fundamental, deep-rooted, societal inequities - affecting younger people especially - are coming to boiling point. Throw in the grift, the lies and the serial incompetence, and it’s not a great look.

    All that said, despite Labour’s undoubted progress under Starmer, his and the party’s continued weaknesses do offer the possibility of further Tory electoral success. If they can make the next election about penises and immigrants they have a chance.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
    Already it's starting to look as though relegation will be decided this summer not by performances on the pitch but by noises off - with Somerset about to be penalised for an unfit wicket, and Yorkshire for, well...

    Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
    Yes they were beaten by an innings and 113 runs at the Ageas Bowl after Hampshire posted 428.

    In 4 innings Somerset have averaged a mean score of 144.

    If red ball cricket is going to be revived by the likes of Rob Key then they could start by addressing the pitches. We need some hard grassless Sheffield Shield wickets which take spin later on.

    Still, it's good to see county matches restored to the middle of the season. Next step is to boot out this ridiculous Hundred. Keep T20 because it's an accepted international formula and it works.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,626
    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    “Nearly lost Scotland”. Love the proprietorial arrogance. Keep up the good work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
    Already it's starting to look as though relegation will be decided this summer not by performances on the pitch but by noises off - with Somerset about to be penalised for an unfit wicket, and Yorkshire for, well...

    Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
    Yes they were beaten by an innings and 113 runs at the Ageas Bowl after Hampshire posted 428.

    In 4 innings Somerset have averaged a mean score of 144.

    If red ball cricket is going to be revived by the likes of Rob Key then they could start by addressing the pitches. We need some hard grassless Sheffield Shield wickets which take spin later on.

    Still, it's good to see county matches restored to the middle of the season. Next step is to boot out this ridiculous Hundred. Keep T20 because it's an accepted international formula and it works.
    What would work better is scrap the Hundred and replace it with the Blast. Hold the one-day cup at the same time through July and August with a rest window of four weeks for three championship matches and a week off.

    But what do we know? We're only the people who watch it!

    Did you ever read this article on who the Hundred was pitched to?

    https://www.thecricketer.com/topics/opinion/who_on_earth_is_the_hundred_for_we_try_to_identify_the_ecb's_mysterious_'new_audience'.html
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Heathener said:

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    We often hear tales of how a party will split but I do wonder if the Conservatives might? How on earth are they now going to reconcile the two main factions of the party?

    It looks likely to me now that the LibDems will make significant inroads in the south, especially around London and Surrey. And Labour look like taking chunks out of the red wall.

    It's almost like Labour in reverse: somehow the tories will have to win back the middle class decent tories whilst not pissing off their newfound English nationalists.

    Maybe Britain itself is just irrevocably split. Well done David Cameron.
    I think the Tories are pretty united. The big purge has already happened. There is a rational rump clinging on, of which Hunt is a part, but that group is now as influential as the SCG is in Labour - ie, almost totally irrelevant.


    Good points but I was thinking of the voters rather than the membership. The tories are managing to lose a significant chunk of their middle class vote in the south, for a variety of reasons including the fact that they are now a high tax, high spend, high inflation party

    Those by-election results this Thursday, on top of Chesham & Amersham, really ought to be sending shockwaves through the party. They were huge swings to the LibDems. I can see the Conservatives losing key seats in the south.

    So, no, I don't think the party is going to be united after their general election defeat. The knives will really come out and somehow they're going to have to try to win back all those middle class southerners that they have alienated whilst at the same time retaining their northern nationalists.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707
    Leon said:

    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.

    What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it

    Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?

    Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock

    ?
    This is what I don't understand. Is it that we've just become so debased in the last 6 years that something that was seen as "fatal" in 2016 is just run of the mill now?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    And then along came the current incumbent!

    What a subject for a bright and sunny Easter Day! And yesterday Essex were, for a while top of the Cricket County Championship and winners of an extraordinary game (which may not yet be 'over' as far as Somerset are concerned.)
    Already it's starting to look as though relegation will be decided this summer not by performances on the pitch but by noises off - with Somerset about to be penalised for an unfit wicket, and Yorkshire for, well...

    Although it has to be said Somerset look as though they're going to struggle to win any matches anyway at the moment.
    Yes they were beaten by an innings and 113 runs at the Ageas Bowl after Hampshire posted 428.

    In 4 innings Somerset have averaged a mean score of 144.

    If red ball cricket is going to be revived by the likes of Rob Key then they could start by addressing the pitches. We need some hard grassless Sheffield Shield wickets which take spin later on.

    Still, it's good to see county matches restored to the middle of the season. Next step is to boot out this ridiculous Hundred. Keep T20 because it's an accepted international formula and it works.
    What would work better is scrap the Hundred and replace it with the Blast. Hold the one-day cup at the same time through July and August with a rest window of four weeks for three championship matches and a week off.

    But what do we know? We're only the people who watch it!

    Did you ever read this article on who the Hundred was pitched to?

    https://www.thecricketer.com/topics/opinion/who_on_earth_is_the_hundred_for_we_try_to_identify_the_ecb's_mysterious_'new_audience'.html
    No but I have now. Very amusing!! "The attention span of a concussed goldfish" :smiley:

    I agree with your points.

    I think I also read that it was really a fit of pique about how successful the IPL franchise is. The ECB probably didn't like the idea of India becoming the global centre of short format cricket?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    p.s. and by the way, I was brought on test cricket. My dad used to take me. I never warmed to T20 ... until I started watching IPL during lockdown. I have to say it's pretty amazing and now I do really like it. And as the Aussies have shown, it's possible to be good at T20, 50 and Test cricket all at the same time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.

    Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.

    He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.

    Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.

    Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/12ba7432-bdb8-11ec-84c4-70cc6ae427fb?shareToken=1b693289178fa0f27f5180ea27c5dcad
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375

    Complaints against two SNP MPs accused of sexual harassment have been upheld by a Westminster authority.

    The Sunday Times understands that former nationalist chief whip Patrick Grady and frontbencher Patricia Gibson have received the findings of an independent investigation and have been asked to respond.

    Grady, the Glasgow North MP, stood aside from his role in March last year after claims emerged that he had groped two male researchers at an SNP Christmas party in 2016. It was also claimed that Grady, 42, “inappropriately” touched an SNP staff member, then aged 19, in a London pub.

    At the time he stood down, it emerged that the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had been aware of “a concern” about Grady prior to a harassment complaint being made against him. The party said concerns were raised in February 2018 but that no complaint had been made at that point and the matter was dealt with “informally”….

    … A friend of the complainant who accused the MPs recently told how he believes he has been driven to ill health by a lack of support from the party since raising concerns, with scant regard paid to his health and wellbeing.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sexual-harassment-complaints-against-snp-mps-are-upheld-dlb7dfwjf

    Or perhaps, driven to ill health by a sudden realisation that he had been a grotesque, libidinous octopus, with scant regard paid to the mental health and wellbeing of the women he groped?

    Actually, in case any offence was taken, I must apologise to any octopus reading this.
    From the political angle the interesting sentence is this:

    "The result of the investigation by Westminster authorities has been referred to an independent expert panel, which can recommend suspension or expulsion from the House."

    A recall petition is possible if an MP is "barred from the House of Commons for 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days"

    And the seat of Glasgow North is somewhat interesting:
    SNP 46.%, Lab 31.4%, Con 10.5%, LD 6.6%, Green 3.6, BXT (who?) 0.9%.

    Looks a long shot for Labour but if recent polling showing an upturn is correct, not impossible, if a by-election had been forced by recall.

    There are three separate contingencies in there that would have to happen, but it's possible to imagine it being a significant development.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.

    Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.

    He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.

    Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.

    Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/12ba7432-bdb8-11ec-84c4-70cc6ae427fb?shareToken=1b693289178fa0f27f5180ea27c5dcad

    @Farooq

    I withdraw my slur that Boris Johnson is the worst Conservative MP.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 318

    A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.

    Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.

    He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.

    Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.

    Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/12ba7432-bdb8-11ec-84c4-70cc6ae427fb?shareToken=1b693289178fa0f27f5180ea27c5dcad

    This is starting to resemble the Major government with sleeze after sleeze stories.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453
    I was talking to a friend in Finland, he is a businessman who I have always found to be insightful about world affairs.
    His view is that Finland will join NATO and that would be a good thing, but he was hopeful that it doesn't mean the end of Finlands self reliance in defence (ie everyone doing military service, farmers being given landmines, etc)
    In terms of Russia, his view was that the failings in Ukraine mean that Putin is in deep trouble, hence the 'arrest' of so many military generals.
    He thinks that nothing will really change though, Putin will get eventually replaced with another Putin, there will be no great civilisational or westernisation in Russia, the new guy will be another nationalist.
    The west will 'reset' the terms of economic engagement with them, but it will be much as before, a mutually beneficial economic relationship with an oligarchy.
    In terms of Ukraine, he thought that the eventual deal will be that Crimea and other contested places will be 'leased' to Russia.
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 131
    Never understood why anyone would think Hunt is still contender for leadership. He was an undistinguished Culture Secretary and is probably more responsible than any one else for Britain's inadequate preparation for the pandemic. He is not popular with Conservative party members either and never had a serious chance against Johnson.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    edited April 17

    A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.

    Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.

    He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.

    Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.

    Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/12ba7432-bdb8-11ec-84c4-70cc6ae427fb?shareToken=1b693289178fa0f27f5180ea27c5dcad

    Whoever could have imagined it? Andrew Bridgen, an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Surely not!

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    “Nearly lost Scotland”. Love the proprietorial arrogance. Keep up the good work.
    Looking back, I'm not so sure his Scottish referendum was such a bad move. It wasn't that close. And it has effectively been kicked in to the long grass with this 'once in a generation' thing. The fate of Independence seems to be tied up with the fate of the SNP, who will not be in power forever. Once something has become associated with the 'establishment', it inevitably loses some of its appeal.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715

    "... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "

    This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
    cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.

    This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.

    Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.

    Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    I like Penny Mordaunt. Which probably means she stands no chance. I'm hardly representative of the kind of voter they will need to win back :smiley:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453


    "... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "

    This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
    cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.

    This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.

    Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.

    Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.

    This remains the most brilliant analysis of the Cameron era...

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    The “formidable” David Cameron?

    Lol

    The UK PM who nearly lost Scotland and then actually lost an unloseable EU referendum, which he called, on his terms, and on his timing?

    Cameron is a fucking idiot. Possibly the worst prime minister in 200 years.

    “Nearly lost Scotland”. Love the proprietorial arrogance. Keep up the good work.
    Looking back, I'm not so sure his Scottish referendum was such a bad move. It wasn't that close. And it has effectively been kicked in to the long grass with this 'once in a generation' thing. The fate of Independence seems to be tied up with the fate of the SNP, who will not be in power forever. Once something has become associated with the 'establishment', it inevitably loses some of its appeal.
    Blimey. If that isn't designed to provoke ...!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    Got to say I am struggling to compute that a judge has found arch-Brexit loon Andrew Bridgen to be an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Whoever could have imagined that? I just thought he was thick as mince.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375

    A Conservative MP lied under oath, behaved in an abusive, arrogant and aggressive way, and was so dishonest that his claims about a multimillion-pound family dispute could not be taken at face value, a high court judge has ruled.

    Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, has spent years taking legal action against his family’s £27 million potato and vegetable business, which he claims forced him out and treated him unfairly.

    He could face millions of pounds in legal bills and a referral to the parliamentary standards watchdog after he was found to have been an unsatisfactory, evasive and combative witness who tried to cover up his misconduct.

    Last month Judge Brian Rawlings found that Bridgen, 57, had pressured a police inspector to investigate his brother over false allegations of fraud, prompting a costly inquiry lasting more than a year. He denied it after realising it would look “inappropriate”.

    Bridgen also made false statements about why he had resigned from the business, AB Produce, almost a decade ago. In court he argued he had been forced out by Paul, 55, his brother, a claim the judge described as a lie. In fact, the judge ruled, he had quit because he thought it might reduce the amount he owed his first wife, Jackie, 57, in divorce proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/12ba7432-bdb8-11ec-84c4-70cc6ae427fb?shareToken=1b693289178fa0f27f5180ea27c5dcad

    Whoever could have imagined it? Andrew Bridgen, an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Surely not!

    This is a classic in the Lord Sugar school of diplomacy:

    "Bridgen later called a board meeting where he allegedly called the directors, whom he deemed to be on his brother’s side, a “team of wankers” and “liars and thieves” and asked to be reinstated on up to £60,000 a year for “half a day to one day’s project work” a month.

    For five years after being elected Bridgen had been paid £93,000 a year to attend monthly board meetings. Ellis recalled: “Andrew said that he was effectively bankrupt and could not live on an MP’s salary.”

    The directors rejected his request."

    Like the SNP MP who I talked about earlier, it's possible to imagine a sequence of events leading to a recall election. But it's one of the safest Tory seats in Britain.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,258
    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Got to say I am struggling to compute that a judge has found arch-Brexit loon Andrew Bridgen to be an entirely untrustworthy, serial liar. Whoever could have imagined that? I just thought he was thick as mince.

    Andrew Bridgen was the one who fed disgraced Chief Constable Mike Veale's nonsense to the Mail on Sunday reporter Simon Walters.

    He is known in media circles as 'Rentagob'. Whenever hacks need an MP's quote on anything they phone Andrew Bridgen.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
    He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.

    But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
    If I am correct in my instinct that it will be the voters that eventually kick Johnson out, not Conservative MPs... then Hunt seems like a logical centrist choice to lead the tories back to power; pragmatism seems to kick in faster in the conservative party, than in the membership of the labour party.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715
    darkage said:


    "... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "

    This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
    cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.

    This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.

    Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.

    Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.

    This remains the most brilliant analysis of the Cameron era...

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out

    That is a great article -- thanks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    More than 50 MPs are facing allegations of sexual misconduct after being reported to parliament’s Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (ICGS).

    Around 70 complaints about 56 MPs have been received by the ICGS, according to Westminster insiders. It is understood that these range from allegations of sexual harassment to more serious wrongdoing.

    In most instances it is believed that the complaints have been made by third parties and are yet to be corroborated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/56-mps-face-sexual-misconduct-claims-znv2m9x8s
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 17
    darkage said:

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
    He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.

    But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
    If I am correct in my instinct that it will be the voters that eventually kick Johnson out, not Conservative MPs... then Hunt seems like a logical centrist choice to lead the tories back to power; pragmatism seems to kick in faster in the conservative party, than in the membership of the labour party.
    I don't often agree with you but I think you're spot on in your assessment of the first part. Whether that leads to Hunt is a secondary debate but I think you're right. We have probably now passed the point when Conservative MPs remove Johnson, so the voters will do what they didn't.

    Ultimately that will help the party because we won't be left with the Daily Mail whingeing for the next 50 years about how they knived their most successful leader in the back.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    darkage said:


    "... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "

    This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
    cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.

    This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.

    Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.

    Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.

    This remains the most brilliant analysis of the Cameron era...

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out

    In parochial British terms, Cameron is a Widmerpudlian figure.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
    Come on don't let your hatred of me blind you to the occasional tongue in cheek moment.

    Etonians have not of late served this country terribly well, that's all ;)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.

    There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Complaints against two SNP MPs accused of sexual harassment have been upheld by a Westminster authority.

    The Sunday Times understands that former nationalist chief whip Patrick Grady and frontbencher Patricia Gibson have received the findings of an independent investigation and have been asked to respond.

    Grady, the Glasgow North MP, stood aside from his role in March last year after claims emerged that he had groped two male researchers at an SNP Christmas party in 2016. It was also claimed that Grady, 42, “inappropriately” touched an SNP staff member, then aged 19, in a London pub.

    At the time he stood down, it emerged that the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had been aware of “a concern” about Grady prior to a harassment complaint being made against him. The party said concerns were raised in February 2018 but that no complaint had been made at that point and the matter was dealt with “informally”….

    … A friend of the complainant who accused the MPs recently told how he believes he has been driven to ill health by a lack of support from the party since raising concerns, with scant regard paid to his health and wellbeing.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sexual-harassment-complaints-against-snp-mps-are-upheld-dlb7dfwjf

    No surprise, the whole top team are rotten to the core, if you are in Sturgeon's circle it seems you can do what you want and the sheep just keep following.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    darkage said:


    "... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "

    This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
    cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.

    This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.

    Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.

    Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.

    This remains the most brilliant analysis of the Cameron era...

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out

    In parochial British terms, Cameron is a Widmerpudlian figure.
    This paragraph now seems sadly prophetic:-

    What this [Blair/Cameron] centrism failed to perceive is that it was not capitalism that brought down communism but the forces of nationalism and religion. It was the trade union Solidarity and the Catholic Church in Poland and an unconquered sense of national identity in the Baltic region that toppled the Soviet state. Economic stagnation may have been a factor, though for most of Soviet history much of the population was impoverished even by comparison with the last decades of tsarism. Gorbachev’s attempt to reform the system triggered its collapse.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Right I have work to do (Easter Sunday I know I know).

    Have a nice day everyone. Be as nice as possible.

    I feel in a decent mood. First proper night's sleep since my broken rib: 8 solid hours. I am also feeling increasingly confident that the tide has turned. Conservative loyalists will have to forgive me for a rising sense of hope.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,595

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    The shape of the final settlement that ends this war will be conditioned by what Ukraine can achieve militarily. Even a return to the 2022 borders looks unlikely in those terms. So what's the most they can get out of it?

    Also, Russia are fighting the C4ISR and logistics of NATO. They're just doing it inside Ukraine but, if this drags on, they are going to start fighting it outside Ukraine too. Fuck knows what happens then.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
    Come on don't let your hatred of me blind you to the occasional tongue in cheek moment.

    Etonians have not of late served this country terribly well, that's all ;)
    "Hatred" of you?

    Where on Earth do you get that from? I even liked one of your posts yesterday, when you made a good point. Don't take people taking you to task for comments you make (e.g. your desired 'green' lifestyle) with personal animosity.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,258
    darkage said:

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.

    There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
    There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
    Come on don't let your hatred of me blind you to the occasional tongue in cheek moment.

    Etonians have not of late served this country terribly well, that's all ;)
    "Hatred" of you?

    Where on Earth do you get that from? I even liked one of your posts yesterday, when you made a good point. Don't take people taking you to task for comments you make (e.g. your desired 'green' lifestyle) with personal animosity.
    Fair enough. And yes I did notice that you liked one. I apologise.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
    Come on don't let your hatred of me blind you to the occasional tongue in cheek moment.

    Etonians have not of late served this country terribly well, that's all ;)
    "Hatred" of you?

    Where on Earth do you get that from? I even liked one of your posts yesterday, when you made a good point. Don't take people taking you to task for comments you make (e.g. your desired 'green' lifestyle) with personal animosity.
    Fair enough. And yes I did notice that you liked one. I apologise.
    Make that two. ;)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,111

    Speaking of David Cameron, whatever happened to George Osborne?

    Chelsea FC sale: Ex-chancellor Osborne signs up to advise Boehly bid
    Robey Warshaw, the firm George Osborne joined last year, is trying to seal a takeover of Chelsea FC by a consortium led by LA Dodgers part-owner Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, Sky News learns.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-fc-sale-ex-chancellor-osborne-signs-up-to-advise-boehly-bid-12591267

    Another fast fall, from Cameron's heir apparent to skulking out the back door after being sacked by Theresa May. Mind you, I wouldn't mind being a quid behind him. Or Rishi.

    A question for the Chancellor and Business Secretary is why almost all our top clubs are foreign-owned. It might be the same reason so many of our leading companies and even the trains and drains have gone the same way.
    Almost all Scottish media is foreign-owned. That is even more debilitating for a country.
    Quite. As I've pointed out before, they can't even publish accurate advice on how to avoid incest, because they simply ask some London lawyer who comes up with the sloppier rules from down south.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    edited April 17
    darkage said:

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.

    There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
    The Ukranians have already managed to curtail Russian ambitions of conquering the country, and have been forced to retreat from Northern areas and from trying to get to Kiev.

    The first wave of tanks heading to Ukraine contained No.1 parade uniforms - they really thought they were going to be met with flowers and waving Russian flags all the way to the Ukranian capital.

    The push back in Eastern and Southern areas will be a slower and more difficult task, but it’s important that the weapons keep coming. Russia has much more limited men and materiel than everyone thought, the task of sending them back to where they came is not impossible - so long as the Ukranian supply lines from the West stay open.

    Russia has very limited manufacturing capability for tanks and weapons, whereas the West has almost unlimited amounts of the same - limited only by Western political willingness to supply and train Ukraine.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a

    It is an extremely poor article in which Meeks pontificates on a subject (Bayes Theorem) about which he characteristically knows nothing.

    I once tried to explain what a Fisher matrix was to Meeks ... I was told law is more important than mathematics.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,111

    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
    THat's rather the point, isn't it? Quite a lot of kids would like to go to a nice school and have a fair chance in life.

    And, since it's Sunday, one can quote Jeremiah on that happy future:

    29 In those days they shall say no more, The fathers have eaten a sour grape, and the children's teeth are set on edge.

    30 But every one shall die for his own iniquity: every man that eateth the sour grape, his teeth shall be set on edge.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206

    darkage said:

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.

    There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
    There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
    Thankfully, it does look like Biden has changed his tune in the last week or so. Serious amounts of kit are now on the way, alongside training for the Ukranians.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a

    That's an interesting article, thanks. I'd like to add one more point to the Ukraine part: both sides (Ukraine and Russia) are 'lying', albeit often in different ways.

    However, if you look at the things we know, Ukraine's 'lies' on things like equipment destroyed is a lot less egregious. Open-source figures (which will be lowball) are more than half Ukraine's figures for things like tanks, which are easier to verify (things like aircraft are much harder to verify). Russia's figures for the amount of Ukrainian kit destroyed are much more out of sync with the open-source figures. There are good reasons why this might be; but it should be noted that Russia's figures have nearly all of Ukraine's pre-war tank fleet destroyed - including, I believe, the stored ones. This does seem out of sync with what we are seeing on the ground.

    Then there are the obvious lies by the Russian side - for instance their line on the Moskva sinking is almost as ridiculous as their MH17 lies. Or their entire justification for the war, which is based on lies, mistruths and a perverted sense of national identities.

    Why does this matter? If Russia are lying to the outside world and their public, they might well be lying to themselves. That makes their decisions much less likely to be good ones. There are rumours that a lot of people in Moscow have been sacked for not having told the truth to Putin and the top bods. Does this make it more likely for their replacements to tell the truth? Perhaps, or perhaps the replacements will be more junior people who are *less* likely to tell Putin the bad news.

    If Russia loses this war, it might be that a good part of the reason are the lies the regime has told, not just to other countries, not just to the public, but to themselves.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,068

    Heathener said:

    And whatever happened to Rory Stewart? That was another extraordinary story.

    Which reminds me, please please please can a law be passed banning all Etonians from high office for the next one hundred years?

    What other groups would you like to see banned for the 'crimes' of their parents? Most kids don't get much of a choice of where they go to school.
    Plenty of kids get punished for things their parents have done, in fact with the two child rule in the benefits system it has become official government policy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a

    It was excellent and I rather enjoyed the first half as well for its humour.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,335

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a

    It is an extremely poor article in which Meeks pontificates on a subject (Bayes Theorem) about which he characteristically knows nothing.

    I once tried to explain what a Fisher matrix was to Meeks ... I was told law is more important than mathematics.
    I had to stop reading when he said “I understand the maths, I really do”; I couldn’t risk tossing my phone at the Pyrenees due to his ignorance of the subject.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories need to go. Even I’m done with them, and I despise Labour and its hideous Wokeness. Time for a new chapter

    Starmer is just about tolerable in his utter tediousness

    A bit early to be pissed Sean
    This is a bit like calling someone a troll. It gets rather tiresome.

    Leaving out his broadside on wokeness (I'm proud to be woke) I think there's a growing sense that the tories are done. I've friends, Conservative voters, saying the same thing. They are tired of all this now and feel there's need for change. That's a terribly damaging meme for them.

    And Leon's right: Starmer is tedious. He's really dull. But I guess we're going to have to put up with less flamboyant premiership. A serious leader for serious times.
    Always impressed at people who manage to drag up ‘friends’ who,just happen to share their worldview to help emphasise a point.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,638
    Leon said:

    There was a faster fall from grace. In 2016, when David Cameron resigned, Boris went from nailed-on next Prime Minister to dropping out in about ten minutes once he heard Michael Gove was standing. And yet here he is.

    What was that about? Even now I don’t understand it

    Why would the opposition of the mincing Gove suddenly dissuade Boris from standing? Yet 2 years later - no probs?

    Rumours at the time said newspapers had gossip on Boris’ private life yet we all know he has innumerable offspring in and out of wedlock

    ?
    I think that he is and remains a lot shrewder than most politicians and than most people on here will ever admit. He knew that was not his time, that his part of the party wasn't quite big enough and if it was split by Gove he had no chance so he got out fast and bided his time. After the shambles of May, with remainers who never wanted Brexit making a total hash of it, it was a walk over.

    That shrewdness and political judgment will make him reluctant to face an election in which he has no chance. But if he thinks he can win he will run.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375
    edited April 17

    darkage said:


    "... he was facing the formidable David Cameron and George Osborne .... "

    This is the David Cameron who made £3.3 million from Greensill lobbying -- he makes Owen Paterson look like a
    cheap, small town crook from North of Shrewsbury.

    This is the George Osborne, friend of the oligarchs (Oleg Deripaska) and Beijing's great booster & best booster in the West.

    Boris is an untrustworthy lair, but he doesn't personally stink of corruption like Cameron.

    Sunk has seen his popularity drop as Chancellor, but Osborne holds the record as the most unpopular Chancellor ever.

    This remains the most brilliant analysis of the Cameron era...

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out

    That is a great article -- thanks.
    Good Lord, yes - full of unwelcome thoughts, but also originality, excellent writing and the ability to make one reconsider assumptions. It's a real gem.


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    More than 50 MPs are facing allegations of sexual misconduct after being reported to parliament’s Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (ICGS).

    Around 70 complaints about 56 MPs have been received by the ICGS, according to Westminster insiders. It is understood that these range from allegations of sexual harassment to more serious wrongdoing.

    In most instances it is believed that the complaints have been made by third parties and are yet to be corroborated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/56-mps-face-sexual-misconduct-claims-znv2m9x8s

    Even if a fair few of these complaints are dismissed, that would seem to be an unusually high number of independent incidents for a workplace.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,258
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.

    There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
    There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
    Thankfully, it does look like Biden has changed his tune in the last week or so. Serious amounts of kit are now on the way, alongside training for the Ukranians.
    I wonder if in part it was because the Americans were wary of being seen to give 'too much' support to Ukraine for fear of poking the bear? Doing just enough to make the conflict painful for Russia was the limit. For whatever reason they feel confident enough now to be a bit bolder.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,638

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
    He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.

    But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
    The Tory party now has the May problem in reverse. Just as the Cameron/May/centrist used to form the bulk of the party with the Brexiteers being the noisy outsiders which made it impossible for Boris to win in 2016 so they are now dominated by the Brexiteer wing with a much smaller and still quieter remainer section.

    Hunt picks up that section no problem but, as with Boris in 2016, it is not enough right now. Boris was utterly ruthless in removing most of the heads of that hydra and they are not growing back. I can't see Hunt winning as a result but he is smart enough to triangulate and try to win the softer Brexiteers over. I don't think it will be enough.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    I am not the least bit surprised but then I was never a fan of him in the first place, thinking him hugely overrated.

    More seriously, this story in today's Sunday Times is appalling.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-new-thalidomide-d5lmlwvdc

    The institutional negligence is often seen in other scandals - eg see the tainted blood scandal. What I find hard to forgive is the refusal to pay full compensation promptly - thus prolonging the suffering. This too is a feature of similar scandals. The indifference we show these people is shocking and keeps happening over and over again.

    See https://medium.com/@cyclefree2/the-price-of-indifference-c25d96c64e0b
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,111
    DavidL said:

    Jeremy Hunt is of a very different Conservative party to the one that now exists. I don’t see how he becomes leader in any contest because he’ll be up against the kind of English nationalist populist - pretend or genuine - that the party’s UKIP membership will adore. His only chance is if he secures victory by acclaimation from MPs - but will the ERG allow that?

    The other thing about Hunt is that he is really not that impressive. He looks a lot better than he is because of what else is on offer. The Tory talent cabinet is very bare.

    I went to see Hunt when he was doing his tour to promote his leadership bid. (His father had been at Dartmouth Royal Naval College, so partly grew up in the town.) He gave a short talk to assembled members in the park, lured more by the free slice of cake on a lovely summer afternoon than by the man I suspect. He had the easy manner, the self-deprecating charm of somebody who was very relaxed because he knew he stood not a cat in hell's chance of beating Boris.
    He's my local MP and I know him reasonably well. He is a consummate professional, showing just enough dissidence to avoid being classed as a boring loyalist, without actually annoying the whips. In debate, he will readily make mild admissions about Government mistakes, while maintaining that overall they are doing well. As MM says, he is relaxed and has self-deprecrating charm. I like him and virtually nobody actually dislikes him.

    But he doesn't feel at all like the sort of leader to whom current Conservative members would gravitate. A firm Remainer and quietly centrist, his differences from Starmer are really quite limited.
    The Tory party now has the May problem in reverse. Just as the Cameron/May/centrist used to form the bulk of the party with the Brexiteers being the noisy outsiders which made it impossible for Boris to win in 2016 so they are now dominated by the Brexiteer wing with a much smaller and still quieter remainer section.

    Hunt picks up that section no problem but, as with Boris in 2016, it is not enough right now. Boris was utterly ruthless in removing most of the heads of that hydra and they are not growing back. I can't see Hunt winning as a result but he is smart enough to triangulate and try to win the softer Brexiteers over. I don't think it will be enough.
    Rather like Ruth Davidson decapitated the Scons and replanted them in her image. I did think that Mr Ross was steering a new course inj Scotland but at the moment he seems to have changed course and then lost his tiller uptide of Coirebhreacain.
  • Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Nice quote from David Frum:

    'If Russia should lose its war against Ukraine, not only will Ukraine secure its full post-Soviet independence - but NATO, the EU, and western democracies generally will be strengthened. So it's not "unprincipled" for people who dislike western democracy & lament the USSR to urge Ukraine to surrender before Russia is defeated. They are indeed acting on their principles. It's just awkward for them to acknowledge what their principles truly are.'

    Now there are other reasons why people may think the Ukrainians should surrender. I think Roger suggested they would be better off trying Gandhi style civil disobedience. I'm not sure how that would apply to the raping and looting but it's an idea. Others might suggest Ukrainians should simply leave areas under Russian control as they have been doing since 2014 if they don't want to accept the new reality in Kherson or Melitopol.

    I agree, but in the end it was difficult to predict how the war would go.

    There is something dubious about supporting Ukraine and wanting them to continue fighting, but not providing them with sufficient heavy arms, planes etc to actually break the stalemate and force the Russians back.
    There was a worry at one point that some in Washington WANTED a prolonged conflict as that would bleed Russia dry. I hope that has changed.
    Thankfully, it does look like Biden has changed his tune in the last week or so. Serious amounts of kit are now on the way, alongside training for the Ukranians.
    Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics. ~ Gen. Robert H. Barrow

    NATO has far superior logistics to Russia and if NATO are willing to provide the backbone of Ukraine's logistics then I think a Russian defeat is not only not "unthinkable" as some like to claim, but increasingly probable. Nothing is certain, but its more likely than not for me.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,626
    Wales is being shitted on from a great height. Quite literally.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61128854
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