I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
Yes he was one of the very few leaders in Europe to tell the modellers to f off with their ridiculous deaths projections. And he has been triumphantly vindicated. If anything, he did so much later than he should have done - I wish he'd done so two years ago. We'd doubtless have more educated children, a better economy, a freer society and better mental health.
And, yes, vaccines.
As @Gardenwalker notes you are forgetting living through it (and why wouldn't we all want to).
For me he did much that was right - including his natural anti-restriction instinct which did win out at the end and I will not begrudge that. But for quite some time he delegated government to the Chief Medical Officer, yes and the modellers. In addition do you remember the chaos which lasted for months and typified by the following:
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X will happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X won't happen; or
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X won't happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X will happen.
Do you remember those days. For me perhaps more than anything it was such occurrences which illustrated the chaos and indecision that lay at the heart of govt that exacerbated a pretty bad time for us all; it totally f*cked with our heads.
Remember the on/off Christmas 2020 and the one-day school term (in January 2021)? That certainly upset a lot of PBers in England at least. I can't remember what allk the other three nations did, though IIRC Scotland had a steadier approach to that sort of choping and changing.
Christmas 2020 was never off. Relaxations got shortened from five days to one: Christmas Day was retained. And in any case it was mostly his political opponents who pressed for the shortening.
That was a pretty savage truncation of 80% ... and to describe scientific and medical advisors as political opponents ...
Did you ever look into the makeup of "Independent" SAGE?
I'm thinking of the Government's own advisers.
No SAGE, and they didn't seem to know their onions either.
It's no wonder we couldn't have a proper Christmas. Where's the stuffing to come from?
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
Yes he was one of the very few leaders in Europe to tell the modellers to f off with their ridiculous deaths projections. And he has been triumphantly vindicated. If anything, he did so much later than he should have done - I wish he'd done so two years ago. We'd doubtless have more educated children, a better economy, a freer society and better mental health.
And, yes, vaccines.
As @Gardenwalker notes you are forgetting living through it (and why wouldn't we all want to).
For me he did much that was right - including his natural anti-restriction instinct which did win out at the end and I will not begrudge that. But for quite some time he delegated government to the Chief Medical Officer, yes and the modellers. In addition do you remember the chaos which lasted for months and typified by the following:
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X will happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X won't happen; or
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X won't happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X will happen.
Do you remember those days. For me perhaps more than anything it was such occurrences which illustrated the chaos and indecision that lay at the heart of govt that exacerbated a pretty bad time for us all; it totally f*cked with our heads.
Remember the on/off Christmas 2020 and the one-day school term (in January 2021)? That certainly upset a lot of PBers in England at least. I can't remember what allk the other three nations did, though IIRC Scotland had a steadier approach to that sort of choping and changing.
Christmas 2020 was never off. Relaxations got shortened from five days to one: Christmas Day was retained. And in any case it was mostly his political opponents who pressed for the shortening.
That was a pretty savage truncation of 80% ... and to describe scientific and medical advisors as political opponents ...
Sure - but "Christmas is cancelled" was just a lie forwarded by people (LP) who were arguing for Christmas to be cancelled.
It was essentially cancelled for a lot of people. Anyone in tier four couldn't go outside their household or support bubble. In other tiers it was heavily restricted with very strong encouragement not to travel any sort of distance, and a strong discouragement from seeing grandma at all.
To be honest, I enjoyed it. Visited another single friend, had dinner, watched a film, home for an early night. But that says more about me, and it was very difficult for a huge number of people. Re-writing history isn't really the way to go.
Made worse by the "cancellation" coming at very late notice, after plans and preparation had already started.
And don't get me started* on the 'should we, shouldn't we, may we, we won't until it's right, we will even if half the population dies' dithering and and incompetence on schools.
*unless you want another long rant about how much I hate the DfE, which I'm assuming most of you don't.
And the speed of Gavin Williamson moving from suing Greenwich for wanting to close its schools, to closing schools.
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
I think CHB has called this right. It is the cost of living crisis driving this.
It probably doesn't help that Johnson has spent the last week trashing one of the three ministers in his government* that people who were not foaming hard right tribal loyalists thought might be OK at this business.
Strip out Sunak and what's left? A government of idiots who can't even do decent soundbites presiding over steep inflation.
*the others being Ben Wallace and Nadhim Zahawi, although I think both are about to hit major trouble anyway.
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
Yes he was one of the very few leaders in Europe to tell the modellers to f off with their ridiculous deaths projections. And he has been triumphantly vindicated. If anything, he did so much later than he should have done - I wish he'd done so two years ago. We'd doubtless have more educated children, a better economy, a freer society and better mental health.
And, yes, vaccines.
As @Gardenwalker notes you are forgetting living through it (and why wouldn't we all want to).
For me he did much that was right - including his natural anti-restriction instinct which did win out at the end and I will not begrudge that. But for quite some time he delegated government to the Chief Medical Officer, yes and the modellers. In addition do you remember the chaos which lasted for months and typified by the following:
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X will happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X won't happen; or
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X won't happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X will happen.
Do you remember those days. For me perhaps more than anything it was such occurrences which illustrated the chaos and indecision that lay at the heart of govt that exacerbated a pretty bad time for us all; it totally f*cked with our heads.
Remember the on/off Christmas 2020 and the one-day school term (in January 2021)? That certainly upset a lot of PBers in England at least. I can't remember what allk the other three nations did, though IIRC Scotland had a steadier approach to that sort of choping and changing.
Christmas 2020 was never off. Relaxations got shortened from five days to one: Christmas Day was retained. And in any case it was mostly his political opponents who pressed for the shortening.
That was a pretty savage truncation of 80% ... and to describe scientific and medical advisors as political opponents ...
Sure - but "Christmas is cancelled" was just a lie forwarded by people (LP) who were arguing for Christmas to be cancelled.
It was essentially cancelled for a lot of people. Anyone in tier four couldn't go outside their household or support bubble. In other tiers it was heavily restricted with very strong encouragement not to travel any sort of distance, and a strong discouragement from seeing grandma at all.
To be honest, I enjoyed it. Visited another single friend, had dinner, watched a film, home for an early night. But that says more about me, and it was very difficult for a huge number of people. Re-writing history isn't really the way to go.
Made worse by the "cancellation" coming at very late notice, after plans and preparation had already started.
And don't get me started* on the 'should we, shouldn't we, may we, we won't until it's right, we will even if half the population dies' dithering and and incompetence on schools.
*unless you want another long rant about how much I hate the DfE, which I'm assuming most of you don't.
And the speed of Gavin Williamson moving from suing Greenwich for wanting to close its schools, to closing schools.
Those who claim that the single market is a set of stifling rules need to explain why the UK government keeps looking (Duncan Smith, Lord Frost, now Rees-Mogg) at potential de-regulatory opportunities and can’t really find anything.
Like any “rule-book”, there are surely shit rules in there. But the case needs to be made around specific rules that are hampering growth.
Whereas the economic literature is pretty clear about the upsides to single market membership.
I don't think it's necessary to justify it with a bonfire of regulations. Divergence can also happen passively simply as a consequence of not following the same path as the EU on new laws.
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
Tory Chancellor has a meltdown.
Labour don't gain.
Hmmmm.......
Hmmmm indeed. Labour were six points ahead and now they're eight.......Curiouser and Curiouser said Alice
The main thing is that poll-to-poll changes don't work like that; unless something really shocking happens that everyone knows about, the change week-to-week is less than the statistical fuzz in the measurement.
The only thing you can look at and hope to get anything is the trend across all the polls;
and funnily enough, that is starting to show Lab trending up and Con trending down again.
And look at the longer trend - smooth out the short-lived Tory bump in early 2020, and equally short-lived slump in late 2020 and it is a steady erosion of Tory support and growth of Labour.
The calculation on the Tory side has to be that this has a natural limit, and will reverse in time. Otherwise the right time for the Tories to go to the polls is "now".
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
Tory Chancellor has a meltdown.
Labour don't gain.
Hmmmm.......
Hmmmm indeed. Labour were six points ahead and now they're eight.......Curiouser and Curiouser said Alice
The main thing is that poll-to-poll changes don't work like that; unless something really shocking happens that everyone knows about, the change week-to-week is less than the statistical fuzz in the measurement.
The only thing you can look at and hope to get anything is the trend across all the polls;
and funnily enough, that is starting to show Lab trending up and Con trending down again.
And look at the longer trend - smooth out the short-lived Tory bump in early 2020, and equally short-lived slump in late 2020 and it is a steady erosion of Tory support and growth of Labour.
The calculation on the Tory side has to be that this has a natural limit, and will reverse in time. Otherwise the right time for the Tories to go to the polls is "now".
Mary Walsh @CBSWalsh · 1h U.S. believes the new massive Russian convoy consists of vehicles moving out of Belgorod resupply area; the line of armor is still north of Izium - Senior Defense official
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
Yes he was one of the very few leaders in Europe to tell the modellers to f off with their ridiculous deaths projections. And he has been triumphantly vindicated. If anything, he did so much later than he should have done - I wish he'd done so two years ago. We'd doubtless have more educated children, a better economy, a freer society and better mental health.
And, yes, vaccines.
As @Gardenwalker notes you are forgetting living through it (and why wouldn't we all want to).
For me he did much that was right - including his natural anti-restriction instinct which did win out at the end and I will not begrudge that. But for quite some time he delegated government to the Chief Medical Officer, yes and the modellers. In addition do you remember the chaos which lasted for months and typified by the following:
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X will happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X won't happen; or
1. AM: Minister comes on R4 to say X won't happen. 2. PM: Govt confirms X will happen.
Do you remember those days. For me perhaps more than anything it was such occurrences which illustrated the chaos and indecision that lay at the heart of govt that exacerbated a pretty bad time for us all; it totally f*cked with our heads.
Remember the on/off Christmas 2020 and the one-day school term (in January 2021)? That certainly upset a lot of PBers in England at least. I can't remember what allk the other three nations did, though IIRC Scotland had a steadier approach to that sort of choping and changing.
Christmas 2020 was never off. Relaxations got shortened from five days to one: Christmas Day was retained. And in any case it was mostly his political opponents who pressed for the shortening.
That was a pretty savage truncation of 80% ... and to describe scientific and medical advisors as political opponents ...
Sure - but "Christmas is cancelled" was just a lie forwarded by people (LP) who were arguing for Christmas to be cancelled.
It was essentially cancelled for a lot of people. Anyone in tier four couldn't go outside their household or support bubble. In other tiers it was heavily restricted with very strong encouragement not to travel any sort of distance, and a strong discouragement from seeing grandma at all.
To be honest, I enjoyed it. Visited another single friend, had dinner, watched a film, home for an early night. But that says more about me, and it was very difficult for a huge number of people. Re-writing history isn't really the way to go.
Made worse by the "cancellation" coming at very late notice, after plans and preparation had already started.
And don't get me started* on the 'should we, shouldn't we, may we, we won't until it's right, we will even if half the population dies' dithering and and incompetence on schools.
*unless you want another long rant about how much I hate the DfE, which I'm assuming most of you don't.
And the speed of Gavin Williamson moving from suing Greenwich for wanting to close its schools, to closing schools.
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin · 7h The quest to define "what has just happened" and "why it is a new beginning for us" by Russian foreign policy community is on the rise. Here is a take by Dmitry Trenin, following the lead of Fyodor Lukyanov. I'll help translate/interpret his key points. Thread
...everyone agreed that in the most important technology of the 21st century, the EU was not on the map.
The last person on the panel was an entrepreneur.
He noted that the EU had as many AI startups as Israel (a country 1/50th the size) and, btw, two thirds of those were in London that was heading out the door due to Brexit.
So basically the EU had 1/3 the AI startups of Israel (this was a few years ago)
So the panel discussion turned to "What should the EU do?"
And the more or less unanimous conclusion (except for the entrepreneur) was "We are going to build on the success of GDPR and aim to be the REGULATORY LEADER of machine learning"
I literally laughed out loud.
Being the "Regulatory Leader" is NOT A REAL THING.
Imagine it is the early 20th century and imagine that cars were invented and that the USA and China were producing a lot of cars.
The EU of today would say "Building cars looks hard, but we will be the leader in STOP SIGNs"
The idea that Europe can concede the field in these areas to the USA and China and just be the referee saying "You can't do this" and "You can't do that" is a complete joke of a strategy.
Now this is not officially the strategy.
Officially the EU is for all these things, but done under the careful guiding hand of Brussels.
So what you are saying is that the UK because an AI leader DESPITE being a member of the low growth, sclerotic EU.
Your anecdote doesn’t do anything except remind us that bureaucrats of all stripes are shit at facilitating growth.
So why shackle yourself to an economic system that is predicated on bureaucratic levelling?
Because “shackling” doesn’t mean anything, except that it’s user reads too much Daily Express.
Try shackling yourself back into the real world.
It does in some scenarios, the German courts suggesting that fonts stored on cloud servers based outside of the EU breaks GDPR is completely ridiculous. It's turning the EU into a no-go zone for tech companies.
I’m not here to claim that the EU is good for tech. I am here to note that what success the UK (rather London) and perhaps Stockholm and Amsterdam have had in tech has happened despite the EU.
As far as recall, much of the GDPR stuff was led by the UK.
It seems inconsistent to talk about successes "despite the EU" while also arguing that being in the EU is essential for the UK's growth.
Attributing dysfunctional regulation within the EU system to the UK also doesn't absolve the EU. A UK shorn of the "Brussels effect" mentality will necessarily have to think and act differently.
It’s not inconsistent.
It’s a recognition that even inside the EU, the UK’s economic destiny was very largely in the UK’s own hands, and we had the single market to boot.
The idea that EU membership itself mandates a specific economic destiny is magical thinking by Brexiters. It stems, by the way, from the early 90s concerns about “social Europe”.
It's a little bit inconsistent. On the one hand the single market is supposed to be the only way we can grow our GDP, yet in the next breath the single market rules are bullshit that stifle growth.
I'm tech industry adjacent and the UK's tech industry is absolutely surging. Not just London either, all across the country tech jobs are sprouting up as people who have an idea take advantage of few to no regulations around internet businesses and get that idea off the ground.
There's a reason whole chunks of Europe's tech industry is looking at the UK enviously and planning accordingly for future hires and relocations. Loads of Dutch people I met in Mexico who were on the nomad trail had already been sounded out for moves to London or another tech city like Cambridge or Manchester by their employers. There's almost no movement in the other direction. 4 years ago PlayStation was moving to Amsterdam wholesale, today there's rumours that chunks of the Amsterdam team are being asked to move to the UK so Sony can consolidate the European business into the UK.
What sort of tech industry? Programming, hardware, cloud? Or just startups in internet based industries? (Asking out of interest.)
Basically everything. It's a real buyer's market for software engineers. I'd say any kind of SaaS based industry is a good bet, e-commerce is one level down but also seeing insane growth, simple Amazon fulfillment businesses are changing hands for millions of pounds.
Have been looking at running a business that would be mostly online providing tuition and study resources for A-level and degree level, but that's a bit different from what you're describing.
Teaching as a service, but you're in competition with Coursera and Udemy.
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin · 7h The quest to define "what has just happened" and "why it is a new beginning for us" by Russian foreign policy community is on the rise. Here is a take by Dmitry Trenin, following the lead of Fyodor Lukyanov. I'll help translate/interpret his key points. Thread
Mary Walsh @CBSWalsh · 1h U.S. believes the new massive Russian convoy consists of vehicles moving out of Belgorod resupply area; the line of armor is still north of Izium - Senior Defense official
The Boris hero worship is never far from the surface.
His only “instinct” is self-aggrandisement and contempt for the useful idiots who vote for him.
End of.
His Covid shambles started with his speech to the Painted Hall at Greenwich scoffing that Covid meant anything to us in the UK, even as videos dropped on YouTube showing corpses piling up in China…and went downhill from there.
Yeah, but the videos of people dropping dead in the street in China were bollocks - Covid is not like that and never was.
Were they bollocks, tho?
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin · 7h The quest to define "what has just happened" and "why it is a new beginning for us" by Russian foreign policy community is on the rise. Here is a take by Dmitry Trenin, following the lead of Fyodor Lukyanov. I'll help translate/interpret his key points. Thread
I think 2019 was the first time the Tories had won Wakefield since 1945.
You're optimistic. They last won it in 1931, losing it again in a by-election a year later. That was until 2019 the only time they'd won it in the era of universal suffrage.
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin · 7h The quest to define "what has just happened" and "why it is a new beginning for us" by Russian foreign policy community is on the rise. Here is a take by Dmitry Trenin, following the lead of Fyodor Lukyanov. I'll help translate/interpret his key points. Thread
It was dangerous bollocks then that held Russia back for decades. It's not less dangerous bollocks now.
The difference is that in the late nineteenth century the West was divided. Putin has managed to unite it - against Russia.
The other difference sadly is that in the late nineteenth century Russia did not have the means to end the world as we know it.
A fair point, but not likely to happen with Slavophilia. The one faintly reassuring thing about it is that it's expansionist and wants to take in more land and people, which using nukes would render slightly pointless.
The Boris hero worship is never far from the surface.
His only “instinct” is self-aggrandisement and contempt for the useful idiots who vote for him.
End of.
His Covid shambles started with his speech to the Painted Hall at Greenwich scoffing that Covid meant anything to us in the UK, even as videos dropped on YouTube showing corpses piling up in China…and went downhill from there.
Yeah, but the videos of people dropping dead in the street in China were bollocks - Covid is not like that and never was.
Were they bollocks, tho?
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
Those who claim that the single market is a set of stifling rules need to explain why the UK government keeps looking (Duncan Smith, Lord Frost, now Rees-Mogg) at potential de-regulatory opportunities and can’t really find anything.
Like any “rule-book”, there are surely shit rules in there. But the case needs to be made around specific rules that are hampering growth.
Whereas the economic literature is pretty clear about the upsides to single market membership.
I don't think it's necessary to justify it with a bonfire of regulations. Divergence can also happen passively simply as a consequence of not following the same path as the EU on new laws.
Which would be as pointless, irrational and childish as Brexit itself.
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
I think CHB has called this right. It is the cost of living crisis driving this.
Yes, and really dominating people's thinking. This was on the day when the main news was Johnson in Kyiv - I think most people thought "Good on you. Now when you get back, about my groceries bill..." It's not that people don't approve of individual things that the Government does, but they don't see a coherent plan.
The Boris hero worship is never far from the surface.
His only “instinct” is self-aggrandisement and contempt for the useful idiots who vote for him.
End of.
His Covid shambles started with his speech to the Painted Hall at Greenwich scoffing that Covid meant anything to us in the UK, even as videos dropped on YouTube showing corpses piling up in China…and went downhill from there.
Yeah, but the videos of people dropping dead in the street in China were bollocks - Covid is not like that and never was.
Were they bollocks, tho?
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
Mary Walsh @CBSWalsh · 1h U.S. believes the new massive Russian convoy consists of vehicles moving out of Belgorod resupply area; the line of armor is still north of Izium - Senior Defense official
Can someone summarise/explain what that means pls?
It means in the 6 weeks of war the west has failed to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs including missiles and artillery, necessary to destroy a massive target so close to the front line.
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
The Boris hero worship is never far from the surface.
His only “instinct” is self-aggrandisement and contempt for the useful idiots who vote for him.
End of.
His Covid shambles started with his speech to the Painted Hall at Greenwich scoffing that Covid meant anything to us in the UK, even as videos dropped on YouTube showing corpses piling up in China…and went downhill from there.
Yeah, but the videos of people dropping dead in the street in China were bollocks - Covid is not like that and never was.
Were they bollocks, tho?
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
...everyone agreed that in the most important technology of the 21st century, the EU was not on the map.
The last person on the panel was an entrepreneur.
He noted that the EU had as many AI startups as Israel (a country 1/50th the size) and, btw, two thirds of those were in London that was heading out the door due to Brexit.
So basically the EU had 1/3 the AI startups of Israel (this was a few years ago)
So the panel discussion turned to "What should the EU do?"
And the more or less unanimous conclusion (except for the entrepreneur) was "We are going to build on the success of GDPR and aim to be the REGULATORY LEADER of machine learning"
I literally laughed out loud.
Being the "Regulatory Leader" is NOT A REAL THING.
Imagine it is the early 20th century and imagine that cars were invented and that the USA and China were producing a lot of cars.
The EU of today would say "Building cars looks hard, but we will be the leader in STOP SIGNs"
The idea that Europe can concede the field in these areas to the USA and China and just be the referee saying "You can't do this" and "You can't do that" is a complete joke of a strategy.
Now this is not officially the strategy.
Officially the EU is for all these things, but done under the careful guiding hand of Brussels.
So what you are saying is that the UK because an AI leader DESPITE being a member of the low growth, sclerotic EU.
Your anecdote doesn’t do anything except remind us that bureaucrats of all stripes are shit at facilitating growth.
So why shackle yourself to an economic system that is predicated on bureaucratic levelling?
Because “shackling” doesn’t mean anything, except that it’s user reads too much Daily Express.
Try shackling yourself back into the real world.
It does in some scenarios, the German courts suggesting that fonts stored on cloud servers based outside of the EU breaks GDPR is completely ridiculous. It's turning the EU into a no-go zone for tech companies.
I’m not here to claim that the EU is good for tech. I am here to note that what success the UK (rather London) and perhaps Stockholm and Amsterdam have had in tech has happened despite the EU.
As far as recall, much of the GDPR stuff was led by the UK.
It seems inconsistent to talk about successes "despite the EU" while also arguing that being in the EU is essential for the UK's growth.
Attributing dysfunctional regulation within the EU system to the UK also doesn't absolve the EU. A UK shorn of the "Brussels effect" mentality will necessarily have to think and act differently.
It’s not inconsistent.
It’s a recognition that even inside the EU, the UK’s economic destiny was very largely in the UK’s own hands, and we had the single market to boot.
The idea that EU membership itself mandates a specific economic destiny is magical thinking by Brexiters. It stems, by the way, from the early 90s concerns about “social Europe”.
It's a little bit inconsistent. On the one hand the single market is supposed to be the only way we can grow our GDP, yet in the next breath the single market rules are bullshit that stifle growth.
I'm tech industry adjacent and the UK's tech industry is absolutely surging. Not just London either, all across the country tech jobs are sprouting up as people who have an idea take advantage of few to no regulations around internet businesses and get that idea off the ground.
There's a reason whole chunks of Europe's tech industry is looking at the UK enviously and planning accordingly for future hires and relocations. Loads of Dutch people I met in Mexico who were on the nomad trail had already been sounded out for moves to London or another tech city like Cambridge or Manchester by their employers. There's almost no movement in the other direction. 4 years ago PlayStation was moving to Amsterdam wholesale, today there's rumours that chunks of the Amsterdam team are being asked to move to the UK so Sony can consolidate the European business into the UK.
What sort of tech industry? Programming, hardware, cloud? Or just startups in internet based industries? (Asking out of interest.)
Basically everything. It's a real buyer's market for software engineers. I'd say any kind of SaaS based industry is a good bet, e-commerce is one level down but also seeing insane growth, simple Amazon fulfillment businesses are changing hands for millions of pounds.
Have been looking at running a business that would be mostly online providing tuition and study resources for A-level and degree level, but that's a bit different from what you're describing.
Teaching as a service, but you're in competition with Coursera and Udemy.
I can't remember where it was discussed (probably here ages ago) but isn't one thing that Khan academy has shown is that it would be better to reverse school work and home work. Get the greatest possible lecturers doing teaching lessons for home work and use the school day to help students as they try to complete their homework.
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin · 7h The quest to define "what has just happened" and "why it is a new beginning for us" by Russian foreign policy community is on the rise. Here is a take by Dmitry Trenin, following the lead of Fyodor Lukyanov. I'll help translate/interpret his key points. Thread
It was dangerous bollocks then that held Russia back for decades. It's not less dangerous bollocks now.
The difference is that in the late nineteenth century the West was divided. Putin has managed to unite it - against Russia.
Lavatory (sorry, Lavrov) seems to be increasingly terming it as a 'western' versus 'us' world. In that Russia is fighting to diminish the west, for it to be taken over by a.n.other (eastern) world view.
It should give pause to *anyone* - including some on here - who believes that Russia might be offered a 'win' in this. The very fact you come on here to diss the government is a joy that would be denied you in a Russian- or Chinese-led world.
Sadly, I can think of two people outside PB I know who would probably welcome that - because for *reasons* they would be immune to such rules. Because they are different, and would not be the first against the wall.
This is what Ukraine is fighting: a total disorder of the world order. And before leftists or rightists think this might be a good thing (I'm looking at you Nick, and you, BJO), you should consider what has happened in Donbass since 2014. Or the state of Russia outside Moscow or Leningrad.
Ukraine needs to drive Russia out of its territory. All weapons can be used either offensively or defensively. I think the reluctance to provide bigger stuff is the fear of escalation rather than some sort of arcane definition of what counts as an offensive weapon. In any case, we don't know what has been given, only what we have said we will provide, or what comms/intel/wargaming/cyber warfare we are giving.
I see this as NATO fighting a proxy war. It must have a war aim. I can't see that is less than some sort of defeat of the Russians.
Delenda est Russia
Big words. You are arguing for a near-continuous state of war in Ukraine.
Edit: and yes someone had to sort out the blockquotes. Your welcome.
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
I strongly dispute your "not on the scale of 1997." Boris a much more charismatic John Major but he's still a John Major, and Sunakgate is way, way worse than autoasphyx and ill-judged libel trials. You have to realise that if you started with a blank sheet of paper and blue sky thinking you could not come up with a better break for Phatboi than Ukraine, and it still isn't getting his head above water.
...everyone agreed that in the most important technology of the 21st century, the EU was not on the map.
The last person on the panel was an entrepreneur.
He noted that the EU had as many AI startups as Israel (a country 1/50th the size) and, btw, two thirds of those were in London that was heading out the door due to Brexit.
So basically the EU had 1/3 the AI startups of Israel (this was a few years ago)
So the panel discussion turned to "What should the EU do?"
And the more or less unanimous conclusion (except for the entrepreneur) was "We are going to build on the success of GDPR and aim to be the REGULATORY LEADER of machine learning"
I literally laughed out loud.
Being the "Regulatory Leader" is NOT A REAL THING.
Imagine it is the early 20th century and imagine that cars were invented and that the USA and China were producing a lot of cars.
The EU of today would say "Building cars looks hard, but we will be the leader in STOP SIGNs"
The idea that Europe can concede the field in these areas to the USA and China and just be the referee saying "You can't do this" and "You can't do that" is a complete joke of a strategy.
Now this is not officially the strategy.
Officially the EU is for all these things, but done under the careful guiding hand of Brussels.
So what you are saying is that the UK because an AI leader DESPITE being a member of the low growth, sclerotic EU.
Your anecdote doesn’t do anything except remind us that bureaucrats of all stripes are shit at facilitating growth.
So why shackle yourself to an economic system that is predicated on bureaucratic levelling?
Because “shackling” doesn’t mean anything, except that it’s user reads too much Daily Express.
Try shackling yourself back into the real world.
It does in some scenarios, the German courts suggesting that fonts stored on cloud servers based outside of the EU breaks GDPR is completely ridiculous. It's turning the EU into a no-go zone for tech companies.
I’m not here to claim that the EU is good for tech. I am here to note that what success the UK (rather London) and perhaps Stockholm and Amsterdam have had in tech has happened despite the EU.
As far as recall, much of the GDPR stuff was led by the UK.
It seems inconsistent to talk about successes "despite the EU" while also arguing that being in the EU is essential for the UK's growth.
Attributing dysfunctional regulation within the EU system to the UK also doesn't absolve the EU. A UK shorn of the "Brussels effect" mentality will necessarily have to think and act differently.
It’s not inconsistent.
It’s a recognition that even inside the EU, the UK’s economic destiny was very largely in the UK’s own hands, and we had the single market to boot.
The idea that EU membership itself mandates a specific economic destiny is magical thinking by Brexiters. It stems, by the way, from the early 90s concerns about “social Europe”.
It's a little bit inconsistent. On the one hand the single market is supposed to be the only way we can grow our GDP, yet in the next breath the single market rules are bullshit that stifle growth.
I'm tech industry adjacent and the UK's tech industry is absolutely surging. Not just London either, all across the country tech jobs are sprouting up as people who have an idea take advantage of few to no regulations around internet businesses and get that idea off the ground.
There's a reason whole chunks of Europe's tech industry is looking at the UK enviously and planning accordingly for future hires and relocations. Loads of Dutch people I met in Mexico who were on the nomad trail had already been sounded out for moves to London or another tech city like Cambridge or Manchester by their employers. There's almost no movement in the other direction. 4 years ago PlayStation was moving to Amsterdam wholesale, today there's rumours that chunks of the Amsterdam team are being asked to move to the UK so Sony can consolidate the European business into the UK.
What sort of tech industry? Programming, hardware, cloud? Or just startups in internet based industries? (Asking out of interest.)
Basically everything. It's a real buyer's market for software engineers. I'd say any kind of SaaS based industry is a good bet, e-commerce is one level down but also seeing insane growth, simple Amazon fulfillment businesses are changing hands for millions of pounds.
Have been looking at running a business that would be mostly online providing tuition and study resources for A-level and degree level, but that's a bit different from what you're describing.
Teaching as a service, but you're in competition with Coursera and Udemy.
I can't remember where it was discussed (probably here ages ago) but isn't one thing that Khan academy has shown is that it would be better to reverse school work and home work. Get the greatest possible lecturers doing teaching lessons for home work and use the school day to help students as they try to complete their homework.
If they were all of the standard of Oak National Academy lecturers, forget it. The standard of their materials was embarrassingly poor.
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
I strongly dispute your "not on the scale of 1997." Boris a much more charismatic John Major but he's still a John Major, and Sunakgate is way, way worse than autoasphyx and ill-judged libel trials. You have to realise that if you started with a blank sheet of paper and blue sky thinking you could not come up with a better break for Phatboi than Ukraine, and it still isn't getting his head above water.
But the government isn't being beaten in the Commons every five minutes except when they rig the votes.
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
I strongly dispute your "not on the scale of 1997." Boris a much more charismatic John Major but he's still a John Major, and Sunakgate is way, way worse than autoasphyx and ill-judged libel trials. You have to realise that if you started with a blank sheet of paper and blue sky thinking you could not come up with a better break for Phatboi than Ukraine, and it still isn't getting his head above water.
Agreed. And the CoL crisis is way, way worse than any economic ills afflicting the country in the run-up to the 1997 GE.
The Boris hero worship is never far from the surface.
His only “instinct” is self-aggrandisement and contempt for the useful idiots who vote for him.
End of.
His Covid shambles started with his speech to the Painted Hall at Greenwich scoffing that Covid meant anything to us in the UK, even as videos dropped on YouTube showing corpses piling up in China…and went downhill from there.
Yeah, but the videos of people dropping dead in the street in China were bollocks - Covid is not like that and never was.
Were they bollocks, tho?
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
I strongly dispute your "not on the scale of 1997." Boris a much more charismatic John Major but he's still a John Major, and Sunakgate is way, way worse than autoasphyx and ill-judged libel trials. You have to realise that if you started with a blank sheet of paper and blue sky thinking you could not come up with a better break for Phatboi than Ukraine, and it still isn't getting his head above water.
Agreed. And the CoL crisis is way, way worse than any economic ills afflicting the country in the run-up to the 1997 GE.
Not yet it isn't. Albeit inflation, interest rates and unemployment were all falling rapidly in 1996-97, in 1993 they were all much higher than they are now.
Which is not to say that they *couldn't* outstrip them, grim though that prospect is.
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
I think CHB has called this right. It is the cost of living crisis driving this.
If the Tories do not get rid of The Clown they are going to get roasted at the next GE, and then we will have Labour for a generation, God help us.
For some reason your 'thank God' at the end there got corrupted to 'God help us'. Apart from that, I agree with you.
Lol, great comment. No corruption, it would be "God help us". Seriously though, I think our system that some people think is so marvellous at delivering "strong government" , i.e. years without change, genuinely stinks and is really very bad for governance. Although I will probably sigh a self interested sigh of relief if the Tories are returned, I will also think it is a very good thing if they are booted out. A win-win or a lose-lose for me, depending which way I look at it.
Personally I think comparisons with 97 are limited. So many variables are different today, including - for example - the SNP.
Personally, I think a Tory loss has been baked in for some months now. The smell of decomposition is just too strong.
A Labour majority looks a stretch, though. Keir doesn’t need policies right now, but it’s still bloody hard to work out what he is promising even at a broad-brush level.
The Russia-bots on French media Facebook (by which I mean, accounts clearly fictitious) are telling people that Le Pen won't get a majority in the National Assembly, so she's the safest vote to protect themselves from the government. It looks like the average real Mélenchon voter on these engagements is not buying the argument (I'm guessing that spelling mistakes signal authenticity).
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
OK grandpa
I am younger than you Sean (assuming you havent underestimated your age), and that publicity photo of you, change it ffs! You don't only look old, you look like you just spent several nights in a cardboard box
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
I strongly dispute your "not on the scale of 1997." Boris a much more charismatic John Major but he's still a John Major, and Sunakgate is way, way worse than autoasphyx and ill-judged libel trials. You have to realise that if you started with a blank sheet of paper and blue sky thinking you could not come up with a better break for Phatboi than Ukraine, and it still isn't getting his head above water.
Agreed. And the CoL crisis is way, way worse than any economic ills afflicting the country in the run-up to the 1997 GE.
The thing about 1997 was that the economic problems had been fixed - and Blair promised to stick to Tory spending plans for the first term - both of which combined to make it safe to vote for Blair.
Plus Blair had ideas and policies and was popular.
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
Ukraine needs to drive Russia out of its territory. All weapons can be used either offensively or defensively. I think the reluctance to provide bigger stuff is the fear of escalation rather than some sort of arcane definition of what counts as an offensive weapon. In any case, we don't know what has been given, only what we have said we will provide, or what comms/intel/wargaming/cyber warfare we are giving.
I see this as NATO fighting a proxy war. It must have a war aim. I can't see that is less than some sort of defeat of the Russians.
Delenda est Russia
Big words. You are arguing for a near-continuous state of war in Ukraine.
Edit: and yes someone had to sort out the blockquotes. Your welcome.
Look at what Lavrov and the Russian regime are saying. If Ukraine 'falls', what makes you think that Russian ambitions end there?
The best solution: Ukraine wins; Russia thrown out of all the country; no escalation.
The medium-case solution: stalemate; a near-continuous state of war in Ukraine (as has happened for eight years).
The bad-case solution: Russia wins, threatens other neighbouring states because their leadership has a warped world view where Russia is mighty because *reasons*.
The worst-case solution: total thermonuclear war.
The Russian leadership's worldview is fascist and imperialist. We should have tried to stop that five, ten or more years ago, when the dangers were less. Why should the decent world (and I use that word deliberately) give in to fascism now?
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
Labour - 320 (+117) Tories - 242 (-123) Lib Dems - 10 (-1) Greens - 1 SNP - 55 (+7) Plaid - 4 NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
A note of caution though - they've only ever made gains on that scale three times - 1945, 1997 and 1929.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
I strongly dispute your "not on the scale of 1997." Boris a much more charismatic John Major but he's still a John Major, and Sunakgate is way, way worse than autoasphyx and ill-judged libel trials. You have to realise that if you started with a blank sheet of paper and blue sky thinking you could not come up with a better break for Phatboi than Ukraine, and it still isn't getting his head above water.
Agreed. And the CoL crisis is way, way worse than any economic ills afflicting the country in the run-up to the 1997 GE.
The thing about 1997 was that the economic problems had been fixed - and Blair promised to stick to Tory spending plans for the first term - both of which combined to make it safe to vote for Blair.
Plus Blair had ideas and policies and was popular.
Perhaps SKS will be like that by 2024.
Or, he could continue having the appeal of a left over Pizza Express dough-ball.
Tho I have underestimated him in the past; I didn’t think he’d get “this” far.
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
OK grandpa
Aren’t you actually OLDER than Nigel Foremain?
He is indeed!
but youre eleven
everyone on this site is older than you
WTF? Is that wit without punctuation? I guess I could be roughly if I were born on 29th Feb, but I wasn't.
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
OK grandpa
Aren’t you actually OLDER than Nigel Foremain?
He is indeed!
but youre eleven
everyone on this site is older than you
WTF? Is that wit without punctuation? I guess I could be roughly if I were born on 29th Feb, but I wasn't.
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
Tory Chancellor has a meltdown.
Labour don't gain.
Hmmmm.......
Labour 8% ahead = Disaster for Labour
If my washing machine could spin like that the clothes would come out already dry.
Yeah, and I remember when future Prime Minister Ed Miliband had a 20% lead..
There were some 15 and 16 point leads in 2012, and yes, EICWNPM, though that was with UKIP on 8 or 9 points, and I think we can guess where those votes went in 2015.
A Labour lead of 8 points in mid term isn't enough to point to a Labour win next time, though I do wonder where the feelgood to drive the swingback is coming from. So the question is whether the government can hold the deficit at 8 points.
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 34% (-2) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 3 Apr
I think CHB has called this right. It is the cost of living crisis driving this.
If the Tories do not get rid of The Clown they are going to get roasted at the next GE, and then we will have Labour for a generation, God help us.
I feel no enthusiasm for a labour govt, although I do vote for my labour MP as I think he’s good. I don’t think any party will give us a good government going forward.
Imran Ahmad Khan MP (Wakefield) has been found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008.
Will he resign or will there be a petition like in Peterborough?
The normal playbook so far seems to be don't resign so you keep the benefits as long as possible, doesn't it, and appeal the sentence?
There is also the matter that he gets auto-defenestrated if the prison sentence is more than 12 months, I think.
How many cases do we have of ultimate defenestration? Fiona wotsit, Chris Davies. And Claudia Webbe who is currently in play, as she has appealed her conviction.
And there's nearly a football team of MPs currently suspended from their Party Whip, afaics, for various less serious reasons.
The dividing line seems to be "found guilty by a court". So I'd say that Imran Ahmad-Khan will be a goner by one means or another.
"Accused of" or "Subject to a Parliamentary Investigation" people don't seem to get unseated.
The Boris hero worship is never far from the surface.
His only “instinct” is self-aggrandisement and contempt for the useful idiots who vote for him.
End of.
His Covid shambles started with his speech to the Painted Hall at Greenwich scoffing that Covid meant anything to us in the UK, even as videos dropped on YouTube showing corpses piling up in China…and went downhill from there.
Yeah, but the videos of people dropping dead in the street in China were bollocks - Covid is not like that and never was.
Were they bollocks, tho?
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
Basically following his fiscal policy with a few points at the end over the USA stuff. People like free money and don't like paying money for stuff.
FPT, it's important to remind ourselves that most Mélenchon voters are tactical supporters of established left parties who don't like Macron liberalism but are allergic to conservative nationalism. In most elections his party's vote is 6-10%, same as it was in the presidentials until February. So narratives about a falling asunder, Yeats poems etc. are overblown. Same goes for Le Pen with a lot of left-behind worker and conservative support, too, but in her case, I imagine her supporters would give her a parliamentary majority (unlike Mélenchon whose supporters have half a dozen other parties to pick).
I'm not convinced that the National Rally is capable of getting Ms Le Pen a parliamentary majority. It is worth remembering that, while she is personally very popular, her party only has a membership of about 31,000, which is one-fifth of the membership of Les Republicans.
Out of around 6,000 councillors in France, they have fewer than 300. They have no members of the Senate, and just 6 members of the National Assembly.
And the problem the NR/FN has is that they (mostly) won't be up against Macron in the Parliamentary elections - instead it'll be LR and a little bit of EM and the Socialists.
I agree to a great extent. The detox on Mme Le Pen's image has had very little effect on her party's. Like Mélenchon, people are not much interested in the 300 other personalities around the big dog. Still, I think if she asked her voters to give her a Presidential party in parliament, like Macron had, a plurality would vote her way.
Macron got two-thirds of the vote in the Presidential election, so I'm not sure it's comparable.
@williamglenn no offence because goodness we're all allowed to change our minds about stuff but just to say that since the "Big Conversion", the reasons for which I'm sure were necessary and relevant for you, I don't believe you have any credibility whatsoever talking about the EU.
Not of course that you should care less but your EU posts are now in the bucket of those I skip on PB (I noticed a long one earlier, which @Gardenwalker has engaged you about).
Bollocks
@williamglenn posts some of the most insightful, enlightening PB commentary on the EU (and indeed on many other things: including Ukraine), precisely because he has an open mind, and is willing to change that mind, when persuaded
I always look at his comments with interest, because I am never quite sure what he is going to say, but I know what he says can generally be relied upon to teach me something - even if I disagree.
The mark of a fine commenter
His ridiculous damascene conversion/volte face makes him a laughing stock. You just like him because he is one of the few people crazy enough to move from the rational position of remain to the emotionally led position of leave even after it has become patently obvious it was a pointless waste of time. You are simply trying to ignore the obvious buyers remorse because you blindly bought the pile of horseshit, but even you know, as you are not stupid, that it was completely and utterly pointless. The only rational position now is to accept that irrationality won, and the EU isn't having us back, so we are stuck with Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage/Vladimir Putin's pointless wet dream, and we have to move on.
OK grandpa
I am younger than you Sean (assuming you havent underestimated your age), and that publicity photo of you, change it ffs! You don't only look old, you look like you just spent several nights in a cardboard box
Comments
Strip out Sunak and what's left? A government of idiots who can't even do decent soundbites presiding over steep inflation.
*the others being Ben Wallace and Nadhim Zahawi, although I think both are about to hit major trouble anyway.
The calculation on the Tory side has to be that this has a natural limit, and will reverse in time. Otherwise the right time for the Tories to go to the polls is "now".
@ABarbashin
·
7h
The quest to define "what has just happened" and "why it is a new beginning for us" by Russian foreign policy community is on the rise.
Here is a take by Dmitry Trenin, following the lead of Fyodor Lukyanov.
I'll help translate/interpret his key points. Thread
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1513450623588614147
===
Note that later in this thread the Russian policy expert says that Belorussia, Donbas and Serbia are all part of some mythical post-Byzantine land.
I think I've said before, there is trouble coming in the Balkans again.
It was dangerous bollocks then that held Russia back for decades. It's not less dangerous bollocks now.
The difference is that in the late nineteenth century the West was divided. Putin has managed to unite it - against Russia.
How do you get an 8 mile convoy in the Russian army? Start with a 40 mile one and send it to Kyiv...
We know some of the most famous early vids were fake - or wrongly attributed - rg the Chinese woman eating the bat was actually in Palau, the "dead" in the streets of Wuhan were actually rough sleepers somewhere else
Yet some of the most notorious and scary videos from early on: corpses piled in wards next to living patients, crematoria overwhelmed with "work", etc - turned out to be true, and we have seen them repeated many timem elsewhere
The dropping dead vids are hard to call. I am sure some were fake, perhaps most, yet we also know that Covid can creep up on you - you feel fine - yet your oxygen levels are dangerously low. In that situation you could simply collapse (perhaps not fatally, but it would still be dramatic). And Covid can cause heart attacks, almost out of nowhere
https://www.futuremedicine.com/doi/10.2217/fca-2020-0082
And we have seen a couple of cases outside China, caught on video
Tories - 242 (-123)
Lib Dems - 10 (-1)
Greens - 1
SNP - 55 (+7)
Plaid - 4
NI - 18
Labour would be able to govern without the SNP
The war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China mean prices are only going one way, and it isn't down.
Almost everyone I know is hurting and all people talk about the cost of living and it hasn't even begun to bite yet.
1945 was a one-off which we should ignore for comparisons. The government is in a mess, but not on the scale of 1997. It still has a majority, which makes a very big difference (would Major have collapsed in quite such abject fashion had he won the 77 majority UNS would have given him instead of the 21 that tactical voting squeezed him to)?
1929 might be a plausible parallel of a complacent government weakly led getting unexpectedly smashed at the ballot box, but I've yet to see any equivalent to the Trade Disputes Act that triggered their fall in popularity.
Still a way to go though and Johnson is more than capable of doing something truly cretinous.
It should give pause to *anyone* - including some on here - who believes that Russia might be offered a 'win' in this. The very fact you come on here to diss the government is a joy that would be denied you in a Russian- or Chinese-led world.
Sadly, I can think of two people outside PB I know who would probably welcome that - because for *reasons* they would be immune to such rules. Because they are different, and would not be the first against the wall.
This is what Ukraine is fighting: a total disorder of the world order. And before leftists or rightists think this might be a good thing (I'm looking at you Nick, and you, BJO), you should consider what has happened in Donbass since 2014. Or the state of Russia outside Moscow or Leningrad.
Which is not to say that they *couldn't* outstrip them, grim though that prospect is.
Personally, I think a Tory loss has been baked in for some months now. The smell of decomposition is just too strong.
A Labour majority looks a stretch, though. Keir doesn’t need policies right now, but it’s still bloody hard to work out what he is promising even at a broad-brush level.
Plus Blair had ideas and policies and was popular.
Perhaps SKS will be like that by 2024.
And if a foot slides into your stall.....
Operation Orbital
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital
The best solution: Ukraine wins; Russia thrown out of all the country; no escalation.
The medium-case solution: stalemate; a near-continuous state of war in Ukraine (as has happened for eight years).
The bad-case solution: Russia wins, threatens other neighbouring states because their leadership has a warped world view where Russia is mighty because *reasons*.
The worst-case solution: total thermonuclear war.
The Russian leadership's worldview is fascist and imperialist. We should have tried to stop that five, ten or more years ago, when the dangers were less. Why should the decent world (and I use that word deliberately) give in to fascism now?
everyone on this site is older than you
Tho I have underestimated him in the past; I didn’t think he’d get “this” far.
What I meant was, 'the reports I read of men cottaging in public urinals, while doing research for my doctorate of philosophy.'
A doctorate in cottaging would be an absolute bugger to do...
learn to think a bit more freely
A Labour lead of 8 points in mid term isn't enough to point to a Labour win next time, though I do wonder where the feelgood to drive the swingback is coming from. So the question is whether the government can hold the deficit at 8 points.
So can they?
There is also the matter that he gets auto-defenestrated if the prison sentence is more than 12 months, I think.
How many cases do we have of ultimate defenestration? Fiona wotsit, Chris Davies. And Claudia Webbe who is currently in play, as she has appealed her conviction.
And there's nearly a football team of MPs currently suspended from their Party Whip, afaics, for various less serious reasons.
The dividing line seems to be "found guilty by a court". So I'd say that Imran Ahmad-Khan will be a goner by one means or another.
"Accused of" or "Subject to a Parliamentary Investigation" people don't seem to get unseated.
Otherwise, whatever, Grandpa