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Sunak’s still getting better ratings than his boss – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2022 in General
imageSunak’s still getting better ratings than his boss – politicalbetting.com

The French election rather overshadowed the latest Political Pulse from Ipsos (now without the MORI tag) and above are its latest favourability ratings. This is how Sunak’s have moved over the past year.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    first?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    And Second Like Le Pen.

    (Because I think its good etic to say something funny at the start of a trend)
  • Give it time and he'll be joining Boris Johnson in the toilet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Javid now overtaken Sunak on net favourability amongst the public and the only leading Tory Starmer does not have a higher net favourability than (other than maybe Wallace).

    A clear boost for the Health Secretary at the Chancellor's expense
  • FPT

    I'm still laying Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    Rishi has fallen further with MPs and activists (Conhome) than with the public. Obviously Sunak might fall further but it is clear there has been an overreaction on the green benches.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    At least you can't say that Lavrov doesn't have a sense of humour:

    Russia's Lavrov says Belarus should become security guarantor for Ukraine
  • Rishi has fallen further with MPs and activists (Conhome) than with the public. Obviously Sunak might fall further but it is clear there has been an overreaction on the green benches.

    Nah, Tory MPs are having to deal with constituents who are getting hammered by the cost of living crisis.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    The continued loathing of Boris Johnson almost restores your faith in the British electorate after Brexit
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Maybe we can confect a story about someone else in his family. That should do the job.

    Someone really tenuous. Doesn't matter who.

    Just get them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    FPT

    I'm still laying Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    Where Melenchon voters go in the runoff will be decisive, if they mainly stay home that will also make it close
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Roger said:

    The continued loathing of Boris Johnson almost restores your faith in the British electorate after Brexit

    Why would you not have faith in someone just because they disagree with you?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929

    Rishi has fallen further with MPs and activists (Conhome) than with the public. Obviously Sunak might fall further but it is clear there has been an overreaction on the green benches.

    Nah, Tory MPs are having to deal with constituents who are getting hammered by the cost of living crisis.
    Agreed. And despite his disastrous spring statement, and questions around his tax arrangements and even loyalty, the public still rates Rishi more highly than do his colleagues.
  • Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Basically following his fiscal policy with a few points at the end over the USA stuff. People like free money and don't like paying money for stuff.

    FPT, it's important to remind ourselves that most Mélenchon voters are tactical supporters of established left parties who don't like Macron liberalism but are allergic to conservative nationalism. In most elections his party's vote is 6-10%, same as it was in the presidentials until February. So narratives about a falling asunder, Yeats poems etc. are overblown. Same goes for Le Pen with a lot of left-behind worker and conservative support, too, but in her case, I imagine her supporters would give her a parliamentary majority (unlike Mélenchon whose supporters have half a dozen other parties to pick).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    It’s not as though betting markets really know anything special but Tom Tugendhat now has shorter odds than Rishi Sunak to be next Tory leader. https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1513504669213069319/photo/1
  • Johnson is doing far better now and could even win again in 2024. That is where the value betting lies.
  • Roger said:

    The continued loathing of Boris Johnson almost restores your faith in the British electorate after Brexit

    You should have written that in the first person; you’ve no idea at all about my “faith in the British electorate”.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Keir Starmer:

    "to appoint one Chancellor with suspect tax affairs is sloppy, to appoint two is a habit"


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1513506829434818561
  • Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    Starmer really ain’t all that

    41% unfavorable; net -11%

    His Remoanerism haunts him
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Johnson is doing far better now and could even win again in 2024. That is where the value betting lies.

    He'll be on his sixth wife and ninth Chancellor by then.
  • Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    I don't think people are discounting Starmer, but i'd question your assertion that he is the most popular politician since Blair. I don't think he is particularly popular personally, but he is emphatically different to Johnson. He seems trustworthy, and less likely to tell bare faced lies for a start.

    Whether he has a winning front bench team yet is open to question, and as yet there is no sign of a plan to deal with the manisfest problems facing the country. That's reasonable at the moment, as this is what all oppositions do, but they need to be ready for the scrutiny that comes with a general election. Not being Tories might keep the loyal members onside, but Labour need to reclaim the floating voters in the key seats. Correctly identify the problems, set out what the solutions are and work out fully costed ways to pay for it.

    There's plenty of time for all that to happen, but that time will run out fast.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    That Scholz is said to even prohibit his ministers from visiting Kyiv is telling. The only reason for this must be that Scholz somehow doesn't want to upset the Kremlin by showing support for Ukraine. In my opinion Scholz is so far as bad a Chancellor as Schröder and Merkel.

    https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1513507515488776193
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Leon said:

    Starmer really ain’t all that

    41% unfavorable; net -11%

    His Remoanerism haunts him

    Whereas Boris can't even get half of those who voted Leave to view him favourably.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    HYUFD said:

    Javid now overtaken Sunak on net favourability amongst the public and the only leading Tory Starmer does not have a higher net favourability than (other than maybe Wallace).

    A clear boost for the Health Secretary at the Chancellor's expense

    battle of the non doms
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    edited April 2022

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    With who? Insomniacs
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    you pissed already
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    Nah. UHY aren't some remoaner think tank, they're a hard nosed accountancy firm that know what they're on about and it's a simple fact there's more red tape to export to europe now. It's true that a good deal of it is realised due to the structure of the EU itself, but it's a bit like a sailor trying to wish away the sea.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    They make ladders in Newent, not garden gnomes.

    (And what have you got against the place? You seem to categorise it in the same way you do Wick.)
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    The Northumberland seat really isn’t fertile labour territory these days. That result alone doesn’t indicate labour are doing poorly in this region or local marginals.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited April 2022

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Lithuanian PM.
    https://twitter.com/IngridaSimonyte/status/1513494605844647938
    Today, my visit in Ukraine started in Borodyanka.

    No words could possibly describe what I saw and felt here.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Leon said:

    Starmer really ain’t all that

    41% unfavorable; net -11%

    His Remoanerism haunts him

    Boris really ain't all that

    54% unfavourable net -29%
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    The fieldwork is before non-dom gate . So is pretty irrelevant and a poll done during that would have shown worse figures for him.
  • murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    Which means no peace deal can be viable that doesn’t involve handing over several Russians for criminal trial and the odds of that are zero.

    Which means we will be seeing more of these vile crimes against them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Macron seems to be copying the Blair masochism strategy. Here he's confronted by some women angry about him 'muzzling' children and his comments on non-vaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1513503407918792710
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Macron seems to be copying the Blair masochism strategy. Here he's confronted by some women angry about him 'muzzling' children and his comments on non-vaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1513503407918792710

    Blair masochism project? Witch one was that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    A sign for sore eyes!

    Time to ditch the beer!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    edited April 2022

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Please, don't have nightmares. FWIW I am neither available on election day or at the count. If they call me and say "congratulations" a light ale or two may be required!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited April 2022
    The French first round vote by age:

    image

    Data without abstentions:

    image

    https://twitter.com/DanielYya/status/1513253491111776259
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Lib Dems probably won't do particularly in well in Scotland outside of Fife, the Highlands and Edinburgh although there could be a few local successes elsewhere such as regaining a solitary seat in Glasgow. They could hold their 14 seats in Aberdeenshire on a good day although they will most likely lose 2-4. Troup is pretty certain to go 2 Con 1 SNP with no independent this time and only one SNP candidate.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    Macron seems to be copying the Blair masochism strategy. Here he's confronted by some women angry about him 'muzzling' children and his comments on non-vaccinated people.

    https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1513503407918792710

    Most of those unvaccinated either voted for Le Pen or Zemmour and a strong majority supported the vaccine passes.

    This won’t hurt him at all and being abused on the campaign trail can actually help sometimes as long as you handle it well .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    See, this is the sort of chart (in the header) which makes me laugh when people say it is so important that our leaders must set an example. We don't rate any of them. Period. So why on earth should we follow their example?

    It's why lying (blatantly) to the HoC was always the real issue for me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    They make ladders in Newent, not garden gnomes.

    (And what have you got against the place? You seem to categorise it in the same way you do Wick.)
    My maternal granny once lived there for a year or two, near her end. I associate it with old age and utter tedium and tiny mediocre small town Newent-ness, and death
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Or alternatively: we become 'bored' of it because it is 'easy' for us to supply weapons and kit Ukraine needs. But we still provide them.

    We kept up the NFZs in Iraq for over a decade without it being much in the news. *If* (and it is a big if) the Ukraine conflict becomes a bogged-down stalemate in the east of the country, it is perfectly feasible for it to continue for years. Sadly.

    Also remember there will be pressures on Putin as well, esp. over the economy, and if the western consensus against him does not crumble.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Disturbing....

    Created by Dall-E2 - "A stunning photograph of a Pikachu wearing a cape, 8K HD, incredibly detailed"
    https://twitter.com/Cybertroniss/status/1513473945550348295?s=20&t=uyjYyuVaeK-fRkIZx2zb4g
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    Macron took 45% of overseas voters .

    Only 35% of those registered voted though. Over 1.4 million are registered and just over 500,000 voted .

    So there’s plenty of votes still to be had in that group .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263

    Disturbing....

    Created by Dall-E2 - "A stunning photograph of a Pikachu wearing a cape, 8K HD, incredibly detailed"
    https://twitter.com/Cybertroniss/status/1513473945550348295?s=20&t=uyjYyuVaeK-fRkIZx2zb4g

    Dall-e 2 is pro-Ukrainian, as befits a mega-intelligence
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    FPT, why is democracy now being questioned?

    Global productivity has declined in the West.
    What growth has been delivered has been captured by the 1%.

    This is even more the case in the UK, which since 2010 has fallen increasingly behind the growth vanguard, albeit masked by house price inflation which has kept a certain demographic happy.

    In theory we should therefore have lots of fun “catch-up” to do, but that would require a serious re-examination of taboo topics around demography, planning and housing, regional development, infrastructure, consumption versus investment, brexit etc.

    There are no easy answers, not least because inflation has now entered the mix.

    Trans conversion therapy, channel 4 privatisation, walkabouts in kiev and even the chancellor’s tax status have nothing to do with the above.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    This is based on a false premise. Negotiations between the two sides have been going on since a few days after the invasion. First in Homel in Belarus and then in Turkey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    There’s a bunch of stuff that can be done without even joining the Single Market, I think Nabavi did a thread on some of them.

    After that, though, you need to look at how FOM interacts with the UK’s welfare system (ie, badly - at least from an optics perspective).

    I haven’t seen much think tank work on this, though perhaps I’m not looking in the right place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    Zelensky has been at the table.
    Until Russia abandons their offensive, there is nothing to talk about.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Ukrainian troops in the besieged city of Mariupol have warned that they may be facing their "last battle" against Russia.

    "Today will probably be the last battle, as the ammunition is running out," an account belonging to the 36th marine brigade said on Facebook.

    "It's death for some of us and captivity for the rest," it said.

    Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that tens of thousands of people had likely been killed in Mariupol.

    The BBC has not verified the figure, but reports from the region and the refugees fleeing the city spoke of bodies lying in the streets and most buildings damaged or destroyed.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61068650
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    I really can’t see Starmer going anywhere near general FOM . He could do something for younger people perhaps with a student type work visa and put the UK back into Erasmus . Also a veterinary agreement to ease checks would be a good move .
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    I think they want to kill as many Russians as they can first. To quote a Lviv acquaintance "Russia should not be allowed to exist anymore".

    They really need to occupy some Russian territory for bargaining power, though.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    I stood in such a capacity once. For about 2 minutes it looked like it was going horrifically wrong. But I lost comfortably.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    I think they want to kill as many Russians as they can first. To quote a Lviv acquaintance "Russia should not be allowed to exist anymore".

    They really need to occupy some Russian territory for bargaining power, though.
    Or take 10,000 Russian troops as POWs, to have any chance of getting back those who have disappeared into Russia itself.

    Although I suspect in many cases, that is going to require the skills of the Reanimator.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).

    Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    Zelensky has been at the table.
    Until Russia abandons their offensive, there is nothing to talk about.
    I hope that is how it turns out. Not 100% convinced that's how it works but we shall wait and see.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    Zelensky has been at the table.
    Until Russia abandons their offensive, there is nothing to talk about.
    There are many politicians and serious analysts in the West whom one would not normally consider as being hawks who are saying that Putin cannot be allowed to win as the contest is now - as the Russians are overtly stating - about democracy vs autocracy. In that view, this does not end with Zelinskyy, but with either Putin or Biden being forced to the table.

    We'd better pray it is Putin.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    I stood in such a capacity once. For about 2 minutes it looked like it was going horrifically wrong. But I lost comfortably.
    Congratulations!
  • Just received an email from the client's group IT to local business managers like myself. All IT kit - laptops, phones, screens etc - will be purchased, configured and shipped from Romania. Please allow 2 weeks between request and delivery.

    Yes, can I have a monitor please? Sure, please allow 2 weeks so we can spend €lots to ship it to arrive #broken.

    Or - radical idea - we stick to the agreed plan of local markets buy and configure kit locally with agreed standards on things like security software. What use is a mobile handset bought in Romania to the UK - we still need a UK contract. And laptops configured there? The whole point in local operation is so that we're not issued low power ThinkPads which throw a processor meltdown when trying to open a large spreadsheet taht some dickhead wants hosted on a server in Bucharest.

    Fuxsake. Is the pub open yet?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).

    Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
    It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM

    Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know

  • -11 is now a bad score lol, anything to stop saying Starmer is good! PB Tories never change
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    I stood in such a capacity once. For about 2 minutes it looked like it was going horrifically wrong. But I lost comfortably.
    Congratulations!
    I once talked Brian Blessed's wife into standing as a paper candidate. He is as scary in real life as he is on the TV. She didn't win thankfully.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.

    There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    There’s a bunch of stuff that can be done without even joining the Single Market, I think Nabavi did a thread on some of them.

    After that, though, you need to look at how FOM interacts with the UK’s welfare system (ie, badly - at least from an optics perspective).

    I haven’t seen much think tank work on this, though perhaps I’m not looking in the right place.
    Yup, and it's the genius of "Make Brexit Work". There are a lot of things that would help in terms of making trade work, and the cost would be putting the fantasies of uber-liberalisation, or a Yankee Doodle Trade Deal, to the side for a bit. Because they are fantasies, aren't they?

    I suspect that Starmer will be cautious, and talk about a Trade and Cooperation Agreement with actual trade and cooperation in it. But if a coalition partner were to force the pace a bit more, I doubt he would object.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    FPT, why is democracy now being questioned?

    Global productivity has declined in the West.
    What growth has been delivered has been captured by the 1%.

    This is even more the case in the UK, which since 2010 has fallen increasingly behind the growth vanguard, albeit masked by house price inflation which has kept a certain demographic happy.

    In theory we should therefore have lots of fun “catch-up” to do, but that would require a serious re-examination of taboo topics around demography, planning and housing, regional development, infrastructure, consumption versus investment, brexit etc.

    There are no easy answers, not least because inflation has now entered the mix.

    Trans conversion therapy, channel 4 privatisation, walkabouts in kiev and even the chancellor’s tax status have nothing to do with the above.

    We can see that since 2000, growth rates have been pretty anaemic, compared to the 1950-99 period.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    A relative of mine wasn't so lucky once. He stood as a councillor in a hopeless seat at a hopeless time and won. He only ran on the strict understanding that there was no way he'd win. He quit after about a year as he didn't remotely have time for any of it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    I think they want to kill as many Russians as they can first. To quote a Lviv acquaintance "Russia should not be allowed to exist anymore".

    They really need to occupy some Russian territory for bargaining power, though.
    Or take 10,000 Russian troops as POWs, to have any chance of getting back those who have disappeared into Russia itself.

    Although I suspect in many cases, that is going to require the skills of the Reanimator.
    Boris keeps stating "Putin must fail". Unless that is no more than a faint hope, NATO must have a plan to inflict military defeat on the Russians. Let's hope it is possible. Certainly the ISW has a poor view of the Russians' remaining capability.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Why will there need to be a negotiated settlement soon? It's not that hard for Nato to send lots of weapons in given the colossal resources Nato has. The biggest problem with Nato seems to have been fear of escalation.

    Could the humanitarian situation reach breaking point? Perhaps but outside of Mariupol I'm not sure that's where things are.

    The Ukrainians don't seem keen to negotiate on much, certainly not territory, at this time. They are determined to win.

    We'll see how this new offensive in the Donbass goes. That will determine much I guess.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    There is no unilateral solution to this. If you could 'get round the FoM problem' we would not be where we are. And if the EU was willing to compromise it had its big chance when Cameron was negotiating pre Brexit.

    Has the EU changed its stance? No.

    Secondly, 'some form of SM membership' does not exist. If it did we would not be where we are. It is binary. There are members of SM and third countries. That's it.

    Yes, the UK spent years helping to create something which in the end we didn't want to be in, and couldn't possibly be out.

    Next question?



  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    There’s a bunch of stuff that can be done without even joining the Single Market, I think Nabavi did a thread on some of them.

    After that, though, you need to look at how FOM interacts with the UK’s welfare system (ie, badly - at least from an optics perspective).

    I haven’t seen much think tank work on this, though perhaps I’m not looking in the right place.
    Yup, and it's the genius of "Make Brexit Work". There are a lot of things that would help in terms of making trade work, and the cost would be putting the fantasies of uber-liberalisation, or a Yankee Doodle Trade Deal, to the side for a bit. Because they are fantasies, aren't they?

    I suspect that Starmer will be cautious, and talk about a Trade and Cooperation Agreement with actual trade and cooperation in it. But if a coalition partner were to force the pace a bit more, I doubt he would object.
    Starmer could promise a referendum. On Single Market Access with FoM, NOT EU membership

    I reckon he would win it easily. He'd get all the Remainers plus quite a few softer Leavers. The problem is that the policy might screw his electoral chances in the Red Wall? But it would, on the other hand, be popular in Scotland and southern England
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    -11 is now a bad score lol, anything to stop saying Starmer is good! PB Tories never change

    In what universe is -11 a good score? Do you even read what you write?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    Zelensky has been at the table.
    Until Russia abandons their offensive, there is nothing to talk about.
    I hope that is how it turns out. Not 100% convinced that's how it works but we shall wait and see.
    It's pretty obvious that while Russia is still taking territory, they are not going to meaningfully negotiate.

    I'm not seeing what your "at some point", or @Dura_Ace 's "there is going have to be a negotiated settlement" actually means, other than that you want the war to stop.

    Short of Ukraine surrendering, which would be national (and for a large number of individuals actual) suicide, that is entirely in Putin's hands.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    Zelensky has been at the table.
    Until Russia abandons their offensive, there is nothing to talk about.
    There are many politicians and serious analysts in the West whom one would not normally consider as being hawks who are saying that Putin cannot be allowed to win as the contest is now - as the Russians are overtly stating - about democracy vs autocracy. In that view, this does not end with Zelinskyy, but with either Putin or Biden being forced to the table.

    We'd better pray it is Putin.
    I would incline to that view, as I don't see how the logic of the situation arrives anywhere else.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.

    There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.

    The only fix is the one they have in other EU countries like here in Spain - to receive benefits everyone has to make contributions. Just watch the left-wing squeal at such a novel idea.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.

    Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
    I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.

    I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.

    They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.

    Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
    Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
    I think they want to kill as many Russians as they can first. To quote a Lviv acquaintance "Russia should not be allowed to exist anymore".

    They really need to occupy some Russian territory for bargaining power, though.
    Or take 10,000 Russian troops as POWs, to have any chance of getting back those who have disappeared into Russia itself.

    Although I suspect in many cases, that is going to require the skills of the Reanimator.
    I'm not sure Putin wants his POWs back. historically ex POWs have not been keen on the governments that sent them to war.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).

    Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
    It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM

    Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know

    I wonder if the problem with FoM wasn't so much that it mattered to a lot of people, as it mattered a lot to a significant minority of people. I think Tim Shipman said something similar about 2016- the Leave side might not have been more, but they wanted it more.

    Political parties are prone to that mistake- see both sides of the trans row, or onshore wind farms, or housebuilding...
  • kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    murali_s said:

    Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.

    Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
    I said it would never last.

    People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
    Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.

    Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
    I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
    Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
    Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.

    A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
    Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.

    On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.

    few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
    A narrow escape indeed. I once stood as a paper candidate for the SDP in Dundee on the very strict understanding with my then boss that I was not to win. It was, thankfully, not close but I did get a couple of hundred votes. There were a few Tory MPs in north east Scotland who got caught out that way by unexpected wins in 2017 too. Dangerous business, standing for office.
    I stood in such a capacity once. For about 2 minutes it looked like it was going horrifically wrong. But I lost comfortably.
    Congratulations!
    I once talked Brian Blessed's wife into standing as a paper candidate. He is as scary in real life as he is on the TV. She didn't win thankfully.
    At least with FPTP its easy to judge at the count. Walk the hall, sample some boxes, eyeball the piles. As with 2019 if you're getting demolished its easy to see. Up here its STV for councils and who knows what transfer-vote goodness could take place. So probably better that I am going to be in Manchester preparing to watch Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets than at the count.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).

    Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
    It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM

    Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know

    I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.

    Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,263
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.

    Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.



    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
    I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.

    I take it you haven't exported anything?
    It was a joke, you dullard
    l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
    I don't believe you did realise, but anyway

    In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto

    It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
    There is no unilateral solution to this. If you could 'get round the FoM problem' we would not be where we are. And if the EU was willing to compromise it had its big chance when Cameron was negotiating pre Brexit.

    Has the EU changed its stance? No.

    Secondly, 'some form of SM membership' does not exist. If it did we would not be where we are. It is binary. There are members of SM and third countries. That's it.

    Yes, the UK spent years helping to create something which in the end we didn't want to be in, and couldn't possibly be out.

    Next question?



    As @Gardenwalker says, it would have to be combined with total reform of our benefits system, making it contributory, so the UK is less of a magnet to the jobless. But that itself would probably be popular

    Of course these are quite radical ideas, but what else is an opposition for? Let's see some wild new proposals. Blue sky stuff. So far all I've seen from Labour is "more neighbourhood policing" FFS

    They are pathetically timid. They have the Tory government on the ropes, befuddled by sleaze.

    Time to swing some big punches

This discussion has been closed.