Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.
Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.
I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.
They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.
Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
I think they want to kill as many Russians as they can first. To quote a Lviv acquaintance "Russia should not be allowed to exist anymore".
They really need to occupy some Russian territory for bargaining power, though.
Or take 10,000 Russian troops as POWs, to have any chance of getting back those who have disappeared into Russia itself.
Although I suspect in many cases, that is going to require the skills of the Reanimator.
Boris keeps stating "Putin must fail". Unless that is no more than a faint hope, NATO must have a plan to inflict military defeat on the Russians. Let's hope it is possible. Certainly the ISW has a poor view of the Russians' remaining capability.
An acute war of attrition leaving Putin's regime incapable of holding the periphery? If the Kyiv phase took out 25% of operational capability, perhaps another 30-40% in the Donbas operation?
Should have got the heavy artillery and counter batteries in sooner.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).
Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM
Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know
I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.
Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
Wasn't that poretty much what Cameron tried to negotiate? The EU would not budge an inch on FOM and no UK government would dare to end non-contributory benefits.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
There’s a bunch of stuff that can be done without even joining the Single Market, I think Nabavi did a thread on some of them.
After that, though, you need to look at how FOM interacts with the UK’s welfare system (ie, badly - at least from an optics perspective).
I haven’t seen much think tank work on this, though perhaps I’m not looking in the right place.
Yup, and it's the genius of "Make Brexit Work". There are a lot of things that would help in terms of making trade work, and the cost would be putting the fantasies of uber-liberalisation, or a Yankee Doodle Trade Deal, to the side for a bit. Because they are fantasies, aren't they?
I suspect that Starmer will be cautious, and talk about a Trade and Cooperation Agreement with actual trade and cooperation in it. But if a coalition partner were to force the pace a bit more, I doubt he would object.
Starmer could promise a referendum. On Single Market Access with FoM, NOT EU membership
I reckon he would win it easily. He'd get all the Remainers plus quite a few softer Leavers. The problem is that the policy might screw his electoral chances in the Red Wall? But it would, on the other hand, be popular in Scotland and southern England
That is a promise of EEA/EFTA. It's the 'Norway for Now' option, which was the rational, but politically impossible way of dealing with Brexit, as it had to be a gradual, stage by stage process with proper planning if we really wanted a total break.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).
Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM
Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know
I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.
Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
You're living in a fantasy land. There's simply no way the EU will agree to it. If the government had any real cojones they would tie future strengthening of trade ties to continued defence cooperation. Eastern European countries simply can't afford for the UK to weaken it's resolve so ultimately the EU will sign up to whatever it is we ask for.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.
Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.
I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.
They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.
Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
This is based on a false premise. Negotiations between the two sides have been going on since a few days after the invasion. First in Homel in Belarus and then in Turkey.
Yes, and the negotiators are impressively professional - virtually no leaks, polite about each other, noting areas of progress without empty optimism. I think they've reached agreement on a lot of secondary issues and made progress on some primary ones, e.g. "What would neutrality look like?"
I think the problem is that when either side starts making progress militarily, they tell their negotiators to stiffen their stances. You then get politicians saying they need to gain some more ground to improve their position, and so it goes on. You need a period of deadlock.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.
Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.
I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.
They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.
Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
Zelensky has been at the table. Until Russia abandons their offensive, there is nothing to talk about.
"Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he is "not ready to give away" any part of Ukraine, in return for peace in the country.
Speaking to CBS' Scott Pelley, Zelensky went on to say that he would never recognise Crimea as Russian territory, despite the peninsula being annexed by Russia in 2014."
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.
Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.
I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.
They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.
Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
This is based on a false premise. Negotiations between the two sides have been going on since a few days after the invasion. First in Homel in Belarus and then in Turkey.
Yes, and the negotiators are impressively professional - virtually no leaks, polite about each other, noting areas of progress without empty optimism. I think they've reached agreement on a lot of secondary issues and made progress on some primary ones, e.g. "What would neutrality look like?"
I think the problem is that when either side starts making progress militarily, they tell their negotiators to stiffen their stances. You then get politicians saying they need to gain some more ground to improve their position, and so it goes on. You need a period of deadlock.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).
Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM
Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know
I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.
Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
You're living in a fantasy land. There's simply no way the EU will agree to it. If the government had any real cojones they would tie future strengthening of trade ties to continued defence cooperation. Eastern European countries simply can't afford for the UK to weaken it's resolve so ultimately the EU will sign up to whatever it is we ask for.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
They make ladders in Newent, not garden gnomes.
(And what have you got against the place? You seem to categorise it in the same way you do Wick.)
My maternal granny once lived there for a year or two, near her end. I associate it with old age and utter tedium and tiny mediocre small town Newent-ness, and death
The racy stories I've heard from Aston Ingham Tennis Club would make your toes curl!
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).
Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM
Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know
I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.
Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
You're living in a fantasy land. There's simply no way the EU will agree to it. If the government had any real cojones they would tie future strengthening of trade ties to continued defence cooperation. Eastern European countries simply can't afford for the UK to weaken it's resolve so ultimately the EU will sign up to whatever it is we ask for.
Your first and last sentences are contradictory.
Not that I think the EU will sign up to any UK offer, but it’s certainly true that the world has changed since Cameron’s half-arsed “negotiation”.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
The UK is, by culture and tradition, an entrepôt.
An entrepôt that struggles to trade freely with the half billion people next door doesn’t really work.
Other paths are available, but they are painful, would require savage economic transitions barely possibly in a democracy.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
Global productivity has declined in the West. What growth has been delivered has been captured by the 1%.
This is even more the case in the UK, which since 2010 has fallen increasingly behind the growth vanguard, albeit masked by house price inflation which has kept a certain demographic happy.
In theory we should therefore have lots of fun “catch-up” to do, but that would require a serious re-examination of taboo topics around demography, planning and housing, regional development, infrastructure, consumption versus investment, brexit etc.
There are no easy answers, not least because inflation has now entered the mix.
Trans conversion therapy, channel 4 privatisation, walkabouts in kiev and even the chancellor’s tax status have nothing to do with the above.
A lot of our growth in the 15 years prior to 2010 was largely consumer based on the back of cheap lending. It gave an illusion of prosperity.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
It’s also a fallacy that trading with a “low growth bloc” entails being low growth one-self.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).
Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM
Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know
I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.
Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
You're living in a fantasy land. There's simply no way the EU will agree to it. If the government had any real cojones they would tie future strengthening of trade ties to continued defence cooperation. Eastern European countries simply can't afford for the UK to weaken it's resolve so ultimately the EU will sign up to whatever it is we ask for.
Your first and last sentences are contradictory.
Not that I think the EU will sign up to any UK offer, but it’s certainly true that the world has changed since Cameron’s half-arsed “negotiation”.
They are, but I'm also living in a fantasy land because the government doesn't have the balls to tie defence cooperation and trade. So ultimately we have the deal we have, any changes will be cosmetic and the EU will do what it wants to do wrt equivalence decisions and the UK government will dilute regulatory alignment because the EU hasn't realised that not granting equivalence simply pushes the UK out of its regulatory sphere.
Personally, I'm not particularly bothered and I don't rate the EU as highly as you do. The single market is a low growth market and there's not a lot of gains to be made from increasing its efficiency as it is already highly efficient so the scope for the UK to benefit from joining it is quite low.
The other issue is that the EU is clearly run by complete numpties. Miread McGuinnes is quite possibly the most offensively stupid person within finance. There's no reasoning with her level of ignorance so it's probably better to not bother and go it alone anyway.
Ok, you lot, here's a task to put your big brains to use: what on earth happened in the leafy 1st arrondissement of Paris, which traditionally votes for high-income candidates like Macron, Fillon and Bayrou, but where official sources say Mélenchon won, and that the registered voters doubled and now exceed the 2018 population estimate? My prior is data error, but any locals or more fluent French speakers want to chip in?
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
OK, I have a few questions:
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
The UK now has the opportunity for a “huge element of catch up” given the growth in GDP differential between us and much of North West Europe.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
OK, I have a few questions:
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
It also includes comparing a fully developed advanced economy to one which has middle development level countries. That the gap is only 2% over 5 years is poor for the EU and shows very big problem for the EU's advanced economies.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
The UK now has the opportunity for a “huge element of catch up” given the growth in GDP differential between us and much of North West Europe.
Yes, per capita GDP has got a lot of growth potential. Being in or out of the single market isn't going to make any difference, in fact not being able to throw cheap labour at productivity issues may actually force companies to invest in automation, anecdotally it's already happening with companies raising capital for investment due to very high marginal labour costs.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell 33 per cent to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to new data from HMRC.
Discussing the figures with City A.M. today. Michelle Dale, a senior manager at accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young, pointed out the fall is due to the extra red tape UK businesses must now comply with when exporting to the EU.
This is good. British exporters are focusing and streamlining. Instead of lots of tiny little companies in newent exporting one garden gnome a year to Slovakia, efficient and puissant companies are harnessing the warm favourable winds of Brexit and sailing freely into European markets - and beyond!!
I'm sorry that is one of the most ludicrous posts of all time. How do you think most companies start in life? The idea that killing off all our small businesses is a good thing is bonkers. And if you think selling into the EU is now easier (sailing freely) you are even more bonkers. I don't think any Brexiters has ever claimed that before.
I take it you haven't exported anything?
It was a joke, you dullard
l can tell when you are not being serious, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve a response.
I don't believe you did realise, but anyway
In all seriousness, if the Brexit hassle continues, I wonder if Starmer will put "some form of Single Market membership" in his manifesto
It might be highly popular, but he'd have to get round the FoM problem
Of course I did. I even liked @Malcolm's post before I replied to you, so obviously I got it. Plus we have been here several times before with you when replying to a joke post. Not the first time when someone replies you assume they haven't got it. You would have had to have been pretty dim to have meant that and I know you are not, but the reply was worth it (it isn't now).
Re your Starmer comment yes he should. I have posted before we should seek the closest relationship he can get without rejoining as that is not an option.
It would be fascinating to see a poll on all these options. Stay as we are, a nudge back towards the EU with things like Erasmus, or full-fat Single Market status with FoM
Are the British still so anti-FoM? Immigration has dropped down the list of concerns.... We just don't know
I think we can get very close to single market and alignment on regulations (which we really have anyway). No FoM but negotiate specific exemptions re movement and travel. No overall contribution, but contribute to specifically negotiated projects.
Membership in a way but taking the boggymen away ( eg we control our budget contribution and immigration).
You're living in a fantasy land. There's simply no way the EU will agree to it. If the government had any real cojones they would tie future strengthening of trade ties to continued defence cooperation. Eastern European countries simply can't afford for the UK to weaken it's resolve so ultimately the EU will sign up to whatever it is we ask for.
No I'm not, but I suspect you misunderstand what I'm suggesting. I'm not suggesting we put that to them as a deal because as you say they will tell us to FO. But gradually we do deals to improve trade, travel, red tape etc. Lots of individual streamlining efforts that benefit both sides. Eg Switzerland and EU is achievable but it will take years sadly.
Basically following his fiscal policy with a few points at the end over the USA stuff. People like free money and don't like paying money for stuff.
FPT, it's important to remind ourselves that most Mélenchon voters are tactical supporters of established left parties who don't like Macron liberalism but are allergic to conservative nationalism. In most elections his party's vote is 6-10%, same as it was in the presidentials until February. So narratives about a falling asunder, Yeats poems etc. are overblown. Same goes for Le Pen with a lot of left-behind worker and conservative support, too, but in her case, I imagine her supporters would give her a parliamentary majority (unlike Mélenchon whose supporters have half a dozen other parties to pick).
I'm not convinced that the National Rally is capable of getting Ms Le Pen a parliamentary majority. It is worth remembering that, while she is personally very popular, her party only has a membership of about 31,000, which is one-fifth of the membership of Les Republicans.
Out of around 6,000 councillors in France, they have fewer than 300. They have no members of the Senate, and just 6 members of the National Assembly.
And the problem the NR/FN has is that they (mostly) won't be up against Macron in the Parliamentary elections - instead it'll be LR and a little bit of EM and the Socialists.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
I see lots of facts but very few numbers and on what basis this is being calculated either.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
OK, I have a few questions:
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
It also includes comparing a fully developed advanced economy to one which has middle development level countries. That the gap is only 2% over 5 years is poor for the EU and shows very big problem for the EU's advanced economies.
Economic growth in countries will appalling demographics is anemic shocker.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
You're using absolutely meaningless data.
Over the decade 2010-2019 [ie the decade prior to the pandemic] the UK outgrew the Eurozone in both GDP and GDP per capita. It did so over the decade 2000-2009 too [ie the first decade of the Eurozone's existance].
If the UK had supposedly collapsed in 2016 then that should show up in the 2010-2019 data, it does not. You're cherrypicking tiny bits of data to magnify their margins of error to suit your agenda, it is total bollocks.
Basically following his fiscal policy with a few points at the end over the USA stuff. People like free money and don't like paying money for stuff.
FPT, it's important to remind ourselves that most Mélenchon voters are tactical supporters of established left parties who don't like Macron liberalism but are allergic to conservative nationalism. In most elections his party's vote is 6-10%, same as it was in the presidentials until February. So narratives about a falling asunder, Yeats poems etc. are overblown. Same goes for Le Pen with a lot of left-behind worker and conservative support, too, but in her case, I imagine her supporters would give her a parliamentary majority (unlike Mélenchon whose supporters have half a dozen other parties to pick).
I'm not convinced that the National Rally is capable of getting Ms Le Pen a parliamentary majority. It is worth remembering that, while she is personally very popular, her party only has a membership of about 31,000, which is one-fifth of the membership of Les Republicans.
Out of around 6,000 councillors in France, they have fewer than 300. They have no members of the Senate, and just 6 members of the National Assembly.
And the problem the NR/FN has is that they (mostly) won't be up against Macron in the Parliamentary elections - instead it'll be LR and a little bit of EM and the Socialists.
I agree to a great extent. The detox on Mme Le Pen's image has had very little effect on her party's. Like Mélenchon, people are not much interested in the 300 other personalities around the big dog. Still, I think if she asked her voters to give her a Presidential party in parliament, like Macron had, a plurality would vote her way.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
The UK is, by culture and tradition, an entrepôt.
An entrepôt that struggles to trade freely with the half billion people next door doesn’t really work.
Other paths are available, but they are painful, would require savage economic transitions barely possibly in a democracy.
When you've made this argument before, you've emphasised access to the EU labour market as being the most important factor, and said that immigration is essential, but that's something we can control unilaterally.
The continued loathing of Boris Johnson almost restores your faith in the British electorate after Brexit
Why would you not have faith in someone just because they disagree with you?
It's surprising how we disparage countries because of their leaders. Trump in America certainly shifted views of Americans and you can hardly hear a good word said about 'Russians' even on here
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
OK, I have a few questions:
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
It also includes comparing a fully developed advanced economy to one which has middle development level countries. That the gap is only 2% over 5 years is poor for the EU and shows very big problem for the EU's advanced economies.
Economic growth in countries will appalling demographics is anemic shocker.
Indeed. I just don't think there's an easy solution as some people are suggesting. It's gong to take years of investment in productivity (and I know how much you hate the term) by companies and the state to make any kind of difference.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
I see lots of facts but very few numbers and on what basis this is being calculated either.
These are based on quarterly real GDP data from the ONS and Eurostat. Annualised growth rates over 22 quarters to Q4 2021. You are the one who made the claim that the EU was a low growth trading bloc. I thought it would be interesting to see whether we have grown faster or slower than them since the Brexit vote. We have grown more slowly. So if they are a low growth trading bloc then it would seem that we have become something worse.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
I don’t think he’s as popular as May was at her peak, difficult though that is to remember given how precipitous her fall from grace has been.
Or indeed Salmond - who has suffered an even more imposing collapse.
I can see why Ukraine want to negotiate. What’s happening to them is terrible and it’s extraordinary that they have endured it and keep fighting. Peace is definitely what they need.
I’m just struggling to see how they can assume good faith on the part of the Russians after what has happened.
They don't really have any choice. There is going to have to be a negotiated settlement at some point and probably soon.
Zelenskyy is presumably smart enough to know the West aren't going to stay interested and sending vast amounts of expensive weapons forever. We're already getting a bit bored of it and it'll soon be time for Eurovision and Wimbledon.
Braving the charge of Russian troll, again, I will repeat the obvious - that at some point Zelensky will have to decide to negotiate. It is a horrible calculus of lives lost vs acceding to Russian demands to some extent and yes the Russians may not agree to the talks or to honour the agreed terms but Zelensky is going to have to decide to come to the table.
This is based on a false premise. Negotiations between the two sides have been going on since a few days after the invasion. First in Homel in Belarus and then in Turkey.
Yes, and the negotiators are impressively professional - virtually no leaks, polite about each other, noting areas of progress without empty optimism. I think they've reached agreement on a lot of secondary issues and made progress on some primary ones, e.g. "What would neutrality look like?"
I think the problem is that when either side starts making progress militarily, they tell their negotiators to stiffen their stances. You then get politicians saying they need to gain some more ground to improve their position, and so it goes on. You need a period of deadlock.
"impressively professional" - or living in a weird unreality bubble where whatever they agree amongst themselves has not a cat in hell's chance of being implemented by their bosses.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
The UK is, by culture and tradition, an entrepôt.
An entrepôt that struggles to trade freely with the half billion people next door doesn’t really work.
Other paths are available, but they are painful, would require savage economic transitions barely possibly in a democracy.
When you've made this argument before, you've emphasised access to the EU labour market as being the most important factor, and said that immigration is essential, but that's something we can control unilaterally.
I believe that full access to the single market is essential, and that the European labour market is a hugely valuable source of talent.
But I don’t think it’s the most important aspect of the single market.
I suppose we could have the latter (FOM) without the former (full access), if that’s what you’re saying?
The continued loathing of Boris Johnson almost restores your faith in the British electorate after Brexit
Why would you not have faith in someone just because they disagree with you?
It's surprising how we disparage countries because of their leaders. Trump in America certainly shifted views of Americans and you can hardly hear a good word said about 'Russians' even on here
People generally employ it as shorthand. Plenty of people love american even though they hate Trump, or Turkey despite Erdogan, or the UK despite Boris. Even the latter is generally careful to talk about the Russian government rather than merely Russians.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
OK, I have a few questions:
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
It also includes comparing a fully developed advanced economy to one which has middle development level countries. That the gap is only 2% over 5 years is poor for the EU and shows very big problem for the EU's advanced economies.
Economic growth in countries will appalling demographics is anemic shocker.
Indeed. I just don't think there's an easy solution as some people are suggesting. It's gong to take years of investment in productivity (and I know how much you hate the term) by companies and the state to make any kind of difference.
The term is as bad as "cutting waste" as a trite politician's promise. Most of them wouldn't know what it meant or how to do it.
The continued loathing of Boris Johnson almost restores your faith in the British electorate after Brexit
Why would you not have faith in someone just because they disagree with you?
It's surprising how we disparage countries because of their leaders. Trump in America certainly shifted views of Americans and you can hardly hear a good word said about 'Russians' even on here
So, you are making a moral equivalence of Brexit with trying to overturn a democratic election, or with genocide? Is that your point?
Yeah, I get your point now. I can see how I would lose faith in someone who could do that.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
I see lots of facts but very few numbers and on what basis this is being calculated either.
These are based on quarterly real GDP data from the ONS and Eurostat. Annualised growth rates over 22 quarters to Q4 2021. You are the one who made the claim that the EU was a low growth trading bloc. I thought it would be interesting to see whether we have grown faster or slower than them since the Brexit vote. We have grown more slowly. So if they are a low growth trading bloc then it would seem that we have become something worse.
So its pandemic data which is patent bullshit then.
You do realise, don't you, that different countries measure GDP differently? So the UK's GDP is greater depressed during the pandemic because of how we measure GDP which many other countries don't do?
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
OK, I have a few questions:
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
It also includes comparing a fully developed advanced economy to one which has middle development level countries. That the gap is only 2% over 5 years is poor for the EU and shows very big problem for the EU's advanced economies.
Economic growth in countries will appalling demographics is anemic shocker.
The UK’s demographics are better than much of Western Europe’s which makes any economic underperformance even WORSE.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
I said it would never last.
People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.
Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
Johnson got the big calls - vaccines, Ukraine - right.
But he's also facing a massive cost of living crisis. Families on 30-35k/year are going to see double digit drops in disposable income because of rising electricity, gas and petrol prices.
Historically, governments don't do so well when people are suffering financially.
(And it is also worth remembering that there are knock on effects too. If you have less cash, that means less money to spend at your local coffee shop or restaurant. So, the rises in the prices of energy could flow through into a full blown recession.)
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
The UK is, by culture and tradition, an entrepôt.
An entrepôt that struggles to trade freely with the half billion people next door doesn’t really work.
Other paths are available, but they are painful, would require savage economic transitions barely possibly in a democracy.
When you've made this argument before, you've emphasised access to the EU labour market as being the most important factor, and said that immigration is essential, but that's something we can control unilaterally.
I believe that full access to the single market is essential, and that the European labour market is a hugely valuable source of talent.
But I don’t think it’s the most important aspect of the single market.
I suppose we could have the latter (FOM) without the former (full access), if that’s what you’re saying?
Yes, and in general that it's not self-evident that having the full package deal on every aspect of the single market is necessarily beneficial to a given country.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
You're using absolutely meaningless data.
Over the decade 2010-2019 [ie the decade prior to the pandemic] the UK outgrew the Eurozone in both GDP and GDP per capita. It did so over the decade 2000-2009 too [ie the first decade of the Eurozone's existance].
If the UK had supposedly collapsed in 2016 then that should show up in the 2010-2019 data, it does not. You're cherrypicking tiny bits of data to magnify their margins of error to suit your agenda, it is total bollocks.
I haven't cherry picked the data. I have simply looked at how we have performed relative to the EU since Brexit. Your exercise, which seeks to deduct the effect of Brexit by comparing growth rates over a period most of which predated Brexit, is far more arbitrary, indeed nonsensical. I would never deny that we grew faster than the rest of the EU when we were a member - a fact that illustrates how our economy benefited from EU membership.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
I said it would never last.
People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.
Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
Johnson got the big calls - vaccines, Ukraine - right.
But he's also facing a massive cost of living crisis. Families on 30-35k/year are going to see double digit drops in disposable income because of rising electricity, gas and petrol prices.
Historically, governments don't do so well when people are suffering financially.
(And it is also worth remembering that there are knock on effects too. If you have less cash, that means less money to spend at your local coffee shop or restaurant. So, the rises in the prices of energy could flow through into a full blown recession.)
I think that's a fair assessment, yet the inflation crisis is imported and Labour have no answers to it either so I'm not sure how much damage the government will take.
What might really destroy the Tory party is a housing market crash.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
You're using absolutely meaningless data.
Over the decade 2010-2019 [ie the decade prior to the pandemic] the UK outgrew the Eurozone in both GDP and GDP per capita. It did so over the decade 2000-2009 too [ie the first decade of the Eurozone's existance].
If the UK had supposedly collapsed in 2016 then that should show up in the 2010-2019 data, it does not. You're cherrypicking tiny bits of data to magnify their margins of error to suit your agenda, it is total bollocks.
I haven't cherry picked the data. I have simply looked at how we have performed relative to the EU since Brexit. Your exercise, which seeks to deduct the effect of Brexit by comparing growth rates over a period most of which predated Brexit, is far more arbitrary, indeed nonsensical. I would never deny that we grew faster than the rest of the EU when we were a member - a fact that illustrates how our economy benefited from EU membership.
Brexit happened in 2020 so since Brexit is the pandemic. You're measuring the pandemic and the UK deflates GDP during the pandemic more than almost every other European nation does because of how we measure GDP.
If you don't understand that, its an exercise of ignorance with garbage data.
Here is what the Russians are being told about the Kremlin's goals in Ukraine by their lawmakers and state TV pundits: Ukraine must be part of Russia even against its will, all of its nat'l symbols have to be replaced with Russian/Soviet ones, denazification means killing, etc. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1513331072007909379
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
He got the big calls right on Covid. The biggest calls were of course vaccines and lifting lockdown.
That people here were objecting (and some still are) to lockdown being lifted when it was right to do so, shows just how right he was on that one. Even if he left us locked down too long still in my eyes, every alternative was worse.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
I said it would never last.
People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.
Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
Johnson got the big calls - vaccines, Ukraine - right.
But he's also facing a massive cost of living crisis. Families on 30-35k/year are going to see double digit drops in disposable income because of rising electricity, gas and petrol prices.
Historically, governments don't do so well when people are suffering financially.
(And it is also worth remembering that there are knock on effects too. If you have less cash, that means less money to spend at your local coffee shop or restaurant. So, the rises in the prices of energy could flow through into a full blown recession.)
I think that's a fair assessment, yet the inflation crisis is imported and Labour have no answers to it either so I'm not sure how much damage the government will take.
What might really destroy the Tory party is a housing market crash.
And democracies have traditionally not rewarded getting the big calls right.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
I see lots of facts but very few numbers and on what basis this is being calculated either.
These are based on quarterly real GDP data from the ONS and Eurostat. Annualised growth rates over 22 quarters to Q4 2021. You are the one who made the claim that the EU was a low growth trading bloc. I thought it would be interesting to see whether we have grown faster or slower than them since the Brexit vote. We have grown more slowly. So if they are a low growth trading bloc then it would seem that we have become something worse.
So its pandemic data which is patent bullshit then.
You do realise, don't you, that different countries measure GDP differently? So the UK's GDP is greater depressed during the pandemic because of how we measure GDP which many other countries don't do?
You've taken garbage data, so GIGO applies.
Incorrect. The pandemic impact on GDP has largely passed. And right now the way we measure GDP is probably flattering our performance, not detracting from it. For instance, UK GDP is being boosted by health related spending, with health sector output up almost 17% vs Q1 2020 in Q4 2021.
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
It was that bad, Max, you’ve forgotten. That other countries might be crap doesn’t excuse it.
Let’s just agree that Boris brought the right instinct in late 2021 to opening back up.
Everything before that was terrible. Boris doesn’t read briefings, he doesn’t do effective comms, he doesn’t do organisation, and he doesn’t do crisis management.
Yes, and the negotiators are impressively professional - virtually no leaks, polite about each other, noting areas of progress without empty optimism. I think they've reached agreement on a lot of secondary issues and made progress on some primary ones, e.g. "What would neutrality look like?"
I think the problem is that when either side starts making progress militarily, they tell their negotiators to stiffen their stances. You then get politicians saying they need to gain some more ground to improve their position, and so it goes on. You need a period of deadlock.
It's a problem if Ukraine wins back territory?
A problem in getting an agreement if either side is gaining ground. It might be a good thing in itself - but unless one's into Unconditional Surrender territory there needs to come a point where both sides can see they're not getting any further.
That's why we're giving Ukraine any amount of defensive weaponry, but are less keen to provide tanks, planes and mobile artillery. I think the West has got this about right - it's played a major part in protecting Kyiv, without helping to extend the war. Russia will I suspect find it hard to make progress out of Donbas.
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
Yes he was one of the very few leaders in Europe to tell the modellers to f off with their ridiculous deaths projections. And he has been triumphantly vindicated. If anything, he did so much later than he should have done - I wish he'd done so two years ago. We'd doubtless have more educated children, a better economy, a freer society and better mental health.
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Personally, I think that is simply wrong. Some things went badly wrong. But not, for all the moaning on here, testing. Or genomics. Or vaccine development, production and roll out. Nor even, in the big picture, public health messaging.
Overall, the UK was not top of the class, but I'd say, observed from a distance, it was better than average, top quartile.
Keir Starmer, the most popular politician since Blair.
Really? Johnson was pretty popular once...
I said it would never last.
People discount Starmer at their peril. He is the ultimate anti-Tory in the current climate
Labour doing very poorly in local by elections in marginal seats in marginal constituencies, see the recent High Peak and Northumberland results.
Starmer will fall flat on May 5th and fail to gain any London councils and then Labour poll ratings will slump again.
I think Labour will make modest gains in London - may not be enough to flip any councils though. I have a feeling it will be a great night for the Greens and LDs though. The Tories will continue to slide - there are enough blue meanies in our great Capital at the moment to prevent an extinction event but it is a slow and terminal decline for them.
Lets hope we don't do *that well*. I am a paper candidate...
Careful. I know someone who was the paperest of paper candidates- to the extent of being out of the country on election day.
A couple of decades later, he was running the council.
Some time ago when I was a conservative, I agreed to be a paper candidate in a ward, thought I would do the decent things and put out a leaflet to every door, was a bit surprised as I walked about that the party had eventify ruled out winning, especially as Meanwhile I applied for and got offered a job working for an MEP in brussels, the job started, I think a week after the election.
On the night I was very worried as I noted the pile of votes for me building up, in the end I lost but by under 100, I did have a few moments that night wondering what I would do If I won? could I try to be a canceler while working in another country? or do I resign what was a dream job or resign form a council I had just been voted for.
few people have been as relived at loosing!! I think that the area had been written off by the party some time back and even as it changed, there was no campaign in the area, sometimes not even a 'paper candidate' I think I'm pretty shore it was properly companied in the next election and won by the conservatives.
...everyone agreed that in the most important technology of the 21st century, the EU was not on the map.
The last person on the panel was an entrepreneur.
He noted that the EU had as many AI startups as Israel (a country 1/50th the size) and, btw, two thirds of those were in London that was heading out the door due to Brexit.
So basically the EU had 1/3 the AI startups of Israel (this was a few years ago)
So the panel discussion turned to "What should the EU do?"
And the more or less unanimous conclusion (except for the entrepreneur) was "We are going to build on the success of GDPR and aim to be the REGULATORY LEADER of machine learning"
I literally laughed out loud.
Being the "Regulatory Leader" is NOT A REAL THING.
Imagine it is the early 20th century and imagine that cars were invented and that the USA and China were producing a lot of cars.
The EU of today would say "Building cars looks hard, but we will be the leader in STOP SIGNs"
The idea that Europe can concede the field in these areas to the USA and China and just be the referee saying "You can't do this" and "You can't do that" is a complete joke of a strategy.
Now this is not officially the strategy.
Officially the EU is for all these things, but done under the careful guiding hand of Brussels.
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
You realise how dumb that sounds? It's like saying "The defence of Britain in WW2 was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, for the Battle of Britain."
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
Nah, it wasn't that bad and the UK is one of the few countries that got the big reopening calls right. Some European countries still have idiotic mask mandates and vaccine passports.
It was that bad, Max, you’ve forgotten. That other countries might be crap doesn’t excuse it.
Let’s just agree that Boris brought the right instinct in late 2021 to opening back up.
Everything before that was terrible. Boris doesn’t read briefings, he doesn’t do effective comms, he doesn’t do organisation, and he doesn’t do crisis management.
He was no better no worse than Sturgeon or Drakeford
I don’t know why people keep saying Johnson got the big calls right and then go on to mention Covid.
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
You realise how dumb that sounds? It's like saying "The defence of Britain in WW2 was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, for the Battle of Britain."
The idea that Boris’s Covid can be compared to the Battle of Britain is so deliriously stupid that only PB’s most dimwitted Tory could have come up with it.
If someone can fix the FOM conundrum, they deserve a Nobel Prize. Or at least, an Order of the Garter.
There is no credible growth path for the UK outside the single market, absent perhaps joining NAFTA 2.0.
Easy, dump non-contributory benefits (including healthcare) and all in working benefits entirely.
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
In the 22 quarters since the Brexit vote the EU27 has grown at an average pace of over 1.4% per year while the UK has averaged less than 1.1%.
That includes Eastern Europe which has a huge element of catch up. It's like saying the UK grew slower than India. No fucking shit.
But I thought the EU was a "low growth trading bloc"? Now you tell me that it includes dynamic fast growing economies too. Sounds like the kind of place we should be cutting trade barriers to, not erecting more of them. We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
You're using absolutely meaningless data.
Over the decade 2010-2019 [ie the decade prior to the pandemic] the UK outgrew the Eurozone in both GDP and GDP per capita. It did so over the decade 2000-2009 too [ie the first decade of the Eurozone's existance].
If the UK had supposedly collapsed in 2016 then that should show up in the 2010-2019 data, it does not. You're cherrypicking tiny bits of data to magnify their margins of error to suit your agenda, it is total bollocks.
I haven't cherry picked the data. I have simply looked at how we have performed relative to the EU since Brexit. Your exercise, which seeks to deduct the effect of Brexit by comparing growth rates over a period most of which predated Brexit, is far more arbitrary, indeed nonsensical. I would never deny that we grew faster than the rest of the EU when we were a member - a fact that illustrates how our economy benefited from EU membership.
Brexit happened in 2020 so since Brexit is the pandemic. You're measuring the pandemic and the UK deflates GDP during the pandemic more than almost every other European nation does because of how we measure GDP.
If you don't understand that, its an exercise of ignorance with garbage data.
See my previous comment. The way the UK measures real GDP in the public sector exaggerated the downturn in 2020 but also exaggerated the recovery in 2021. Right now it is almost certainly boosting GDP, when you look at UK health sector output, up 17% vs pre Covid levels. I am looking at the average growth rate during the period since the Brexit vote, so the path during the Covid period is irrelevant (only the level now vs Q2 2016 matters for the calculation).
-11 is now a bad score lol, anything to stop saying Starmer is good! PB Tories never change
You keep putting up straw men. Where is your evidence that Starmer is the most popular politician since Blair? Starmer is good. He has started the process of making labour
Jon Craig of Sky reports they answered 'no comment' when quite often they say no, the PM is happy with his team
I think immediately after getting smashed in the locals there will be a refreshing of the top team. Rishi to use his Green Card and some other poor sap gets the chance to have his reputation ruined...
Comments
Should have got the heavy artillery and counter batteries in sooner.
https://twitter.com/patrickmadrid/status/1512600420610363394?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1512600420610363394|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-goes-mad-in-lockdown-with-looting-and-murder-suicides-as-shanghai-howls-at-the-moon
Turkey developed a three-stage roadmap to bring Russian tourists into the country
According to Sabah sources, the scheme involves establishing a new airline, "2 million Russian tourists will be guaranteed for this year" https://sabah.com.tr/ekonomi/rus-turist-getirene-kredi-destegi-5944589
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1513516415826993152
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Your latter statement is a huge over exaggeration. The idea that the UK has no way of growing GDP because it is less attached to a low growth trading bloc is simply ridiculous.
I think the problem is that when either side starts making progress militarily, they tell their negotiators to stiffen their stances. You then get politicians saying they need to gain some more ground to improve their position, and so it goes on. You need a period of deadlock.
"Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he is "not ready to give away" any part of Ukraine, in return for peace in the country.
Speaking to CBS' Scott Pelley, Zelensky went on to say that he would never recognise Crimea as Russian territory, despite the peninsula being annexed by Russia in 2014."
Not that I think the EU will sign up to any UK offer, but it’s certainly true that the world has changed since Cameron’s half-arsed “negotiation”.
An entrepôt that struggles to trade freely with the half billion people next door doesn’t really work.
Other paths are available, but they are painful, would require savage economic transitions barely possibly in a democracy.
It’s weird Brexity thinking.
Personally, I'm not particularly bothered and I don't rate the EU as highly as you do. The single market is a low growth market and there's not a lot of gains to be made from increasing its efficiency as it is already highly efficient so the scope for the UK to benefit from joining it is quite low.
The other issue is that the EU is clearly run by complete numpties. Miread McGuinnes is quite possibly the most offensively stupid person within finance. There's no reasoning with her level of ignorance so it's probably better to not bother and go it alone anyway.
@JohnRentoul “ How are you enjoying your visit to the UK ? “.
(1) Are we saying that the UK's annualised growth is 0.4% less (per year) over five years? Or, to put it another way, the EU has outgrown the UK by a staggering... checks... 2% over five years?
(2) When we say EU27, are we looking at the sum total of the EU, or are we looking at economic growth for the median country? (Or is it the simple mean of economic growth)
"We would choose to be more confrontational and unstable if you do this, ergo NATO is causing it"
Russia has warned Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, arguing the move would not bring stability to Europe.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that "the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation".
Up against anyone on -10, not so good.
Imran Ahmad Khan MP (Wakefield) has been found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008.
Will he resign or will there be a petition like in Peterborough?
We also grew more slowly than the Euro Area and, for that matter, France over the same period. We have become a low growth non-trading bloc.
Out of around 6,000 councillors in France, they have fewer than 300. They have no members of the Senate, and just 6 members of the National Assembly.
And the problem the NR/FN has is that they (mostly) won't be up against Macron in the Parliamentary elections - instead it'll be LR and a little bit of EM and the Socialists.
BREAKING: Wakefield MP Imran Ahmad Khan found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008.
https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1513534600852738049?t=IatrYqCfJUBXmdm30HVH2A&s=19
This surely will result in a substantial prison sentence for Ahmad Khan - and hence a by-election in Wakefield.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1513535896309714946?t=GrmE80RcA9sl3JDRSDRHJA&s=19
Though following the Webbe example can he delay things by appealing?
Over the decade 2010-2019 [ie the decade prior to the pandemic] the UK outgrew the Eurozone in both GDP and GDP per capita. It did so over the decade 2000-2009 too [ie the first decade of the Eurozone's existance].
If the UK had supposedly collapsed in 2016 then that should show up in the 2010-2019 data, it does not. You're cherrypicking tiny bits of data to magnify their margins of error to suit your agenda, it is total bollocks.
Last year's council results in the Constituency were Con 47% Lab 42%.
Jon Craig of Sky reports they answered 'no comment' when quite often they say no, the PM is happy with his team
But I don’t think it’s the most important aspect of the single market.
I suppose we could have the latter (FOM) without the former (full access), if that’s what you’re saying?
Yeah, I get your point now. I can see how I would lose faith in someone who could do that.
You do realise, don't you, that different countries measure GDP differently? So the UK's GDP is greater depressed during the pandemic because of how we measure GDP which many other countries don't do?
You've taken garbage data, so GIGO applies.
But he's also facing a massive cost of living crisis. Families on 30-35k/year are going to see double digit drops in disposable income because of rising electricity, gas and petrol prices.
Historically, governments don't do so well when people are suffering financially.
(And it is also worth remembering that there are knock on effects too. If you have less cash, that means less money to spend at your local coffee shop or restaurant. So, the rises in the prices of energy could flow through into a full blown recession.)
But to answer your question, possibly.
https://youtu.be/d3PKE8uTSp8
Seriously. At what point do we conclude that the problem is the player, not the cards?
It was a fucking shambles on almost every front save, of course, vaccines.
What might really destroy the Tory party is a housing market crash.
If you don't understand that, its an exercise of ignorance with garbage data.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1513331072007909379
That people here were objecting (and some still are) to lockdown being lifted when it was right to do so, shows just how right he was on that one. Even if he left us locked down too long still in my eyes, every alternative was worse.
We can come to that conclusion well before then, as happened to John Major.
Or is it just that they mi with the wrong sort of people, such as Posh-boy Tories?
That other countries might be crap doesn’t excuse it.
Let’s just agree that Boris brought the right instinct in late 2021 to opening back up.
Everything before that was terrible. Boris doesn’t read briefings, he doesn’t do effective comms, he doesn’t do organisation, and he doesn’t do crisis management.
A problem in getting an agreement if either side is gaining ground. It might be a good thing in itself - but unless one's into Unconditional Surrender territory there needs to come a point where both sides can see they're not getting any further.
That's why we're giving Ukraine any amount of defensive weaponry, but are less keen to provide tanks, planes and mobile artillery. I think the West has got this about right - it's played a major part in protecting Kyiv, without helping to extend the war. Russia will I suspect find it hard to make progress out of Donbas.
And, yes, vaccines.
Overall, the UK was not top of the class, but I'd say, observed from a distance, it was better than average, top quartile.
https://twitter.com/sebusher/status/1513513089580290053
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1509832349986562048
Some key points below:
...everyone agreed that in the most important technology of the 21st century, the EU was not on the map.
The last person on the panel was an entrepreneur.
He noted that the EU had as many AI startups as Israel (a country 1/50th the size) and, btw, two thirds of those were in London that was heading out the door due to Brexit.
So basically the EU had 1/3 the AI startups of Israel (this was a few years ago)
So the panel discussion turned to "What should the EU do?"
And the more or less unanimous conclusion (except for the entrepreneur) was "We are going to build on the success of GDPR and aim to be the REGULATORY LEADER of machine learning"
I literally laughed out loud.
Being the "Regulatory Leader" is NOT A REAL THING.
Imagine it is the early 20th century and imagine that cars were invented and that the USA and China were producing a lot of cars.
The EU of today would say "Building cars looks hard, but we will be the leader in STOP SIGNs"
The idea that Europe can concede the field in these areas to the USA and China and just be the referee saying "You can't do this" and "You can't do that" is a complete joke of a strategy.
Now this is not officially the strategy.
Officially the EU is for all these things, but done under the careful guiding hand of Brussels.
Labour - and this is true of almost any area - should have outsourced their policy making to the Tony Blair Institute.
They all made various bad calls (in hindsight)
By-election on
Starmer is good. He has started the process of making labour I think immediately after getting smashed in the locals there will be a refreshing of the top team. Rishi to use his Green Card and some other poor sap gets the chance to have his reputation ruined...