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The next election: CON winning most seats & votes but Starmer PM? – politicalbetting.com
The next election: CON winning most seats & votes but Starmer PM? – politicalbetting.com
Currently, according to the betting markets, there is a 73% chance that the election will take place in 2024.
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I would expect the next Parliament to be either hung or a small conservative majority
Just listened to Kay Burley ask Angela Rayner can a woman have a penis ?
The world has gone mad
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Pioneers, my neighbours have it.
It turns out being a massive introvert is a great survival trait during a pandemic.
F1: vague ramble for Oz: I suspect McLaren will drift backwards, but be interesting to see (Saudi Arabia was much faster than Bahrain, Australia will be much slower). Should be good for Alfa Romeo. I'm expecting Ferrari to have the edge on Red Bull. Might look to back Sainz each way if I get a free bet or the odds improve from 7.
Surprised by the poor reliability in Saudi Arabia for multiple teams.
Question. If the end to the war hinged on that, and they looked to us to sign as guarantor to initiate the peace, with Russia out, right back to how they were out at start of February, as UK PM would you sign to be guarantor?
I’ve had a think on this question, and my answer would be no.
Jericho III missiles from Isreal. Whose warheads should we buy? Israeli is a bit obvious... I say we sell them some.
Ukraine is never joining NATO, he's got Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea. Ideally, he'd like a commitment that they won't be allowed in to the EU and to capture Odesa in order to strategically and logistically impair whatever is left of Ukraine. Those might have to remain aspirations until next time.
He's right to assume that the West will eventually get too bored and/or greedy to maintain sanctions so the only great disadvantage to come out of World War Z will be the greatly diminished reputation of the Russian military. He won't give a fuck about the 10,000 KIAs and neither will anyone else who matters. Russians have always excelled at dying in large numbers with stoicism.
Addressing to the left or the right?
The world has moved on and increasingly comprehends the complexities and nuance of gender, sex and language.
Most of us increasingly realise that binary thinking of all sorts contributes to the evils of the world.
So however loud the strident voices, like yours, become on the extremes they are not where the majority of the next few generations beyond yours are.
(I could walk you through the complexities of gender but not now.)
Jokes about hairy women and well hung men.
Great place for females this.
I'll leave you men to it for the day.
But the actual question is there because there is no answer that works. The question has 2 possible answers both of which will seriously annoy x% of the population and as @NickPalmer points out any answer isn't going to help you as it's the same as two neighbours arguing over a neighbourhood issue - whatever you do will upset 1 person and not go far enough for the other 1.
And that scenario could still have England with a majority of MPs, with Starmer unable to get legislation through on English matters where the SNP don't vote and the Tory MPs do.
Starmer, the PM of the UK - but effectively not of England.
Hence the Russian demands for de-militarisation.
Normally the questionnaire would be accompanied by evidence a crime had been committed. If that evidence, or the other evidence, available to the prosecution would likely stand, you can take the FPN. If it is no more than a fishing expedition, you can give the equivalent of a "no comment" interview.
EDIT: In all seriousness, the truth is that what Ukraine needs is nuclear weapons. A truth that will be discussed in many government offices around the world. There is no technical barrier for a least half a dozen countries - they have the nuclear material and the skills.
You react to most any post you do not like by discrimination against men
What has this is to do with male attitudes ?
This anger is coming from women themselves and is an issue tearing labour apart at present
I do not believe a word you say most of the time anyway
The role of the US is obviously key - and Turkey is an interesting addition.
She sells t-shirts with “WOMEN!!!” written on the front, as a protest at the attempted removal of that word from public discourse by a small but loud group of activists.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=xlRnvDTn7cY&t=400s
This week’s context, is the new Supreme Court nominee being unable or unwilling to define the word “woman”.
Here's a cunning plan: Anything you want to segregate (toilets prisons etc) you segregate by dick/no dick. This takes most of the sting out of the situation for actual women, and the clever thing is, for anyone who wants to attack it on discrimination grounds, they can't, because to do so they would have to argue that dick owning status and sex are in some way correlated.
As neither of us have read the details I am wondering if it is rather more nuanced than this and is actually simply a tax avoidance measure aimed at the well off. Eg like when we got rid of B&B.
Something @HYUFD said late last night when I challenged the fact that he was getting capital and income mixed up. He referred to short term capital gains being taxed as income. That immediately rang alarm bells re the understanding of the measure. Firstly by definition you can't have an unrealised short term capital gain. If it is unrealised you don't know if it's short term or not yet, so what does that mean. However it is perfectly reasonable to treat short term realized capital gains as income. That would be normal practice here for instance if done on a very regular basis.
Not sure I can be bothered to read the details, but sounds like measures to stop avoidance to me.
If Ukraine had been a nuclear power since it's independence, this war wouldn't have happened.
A Nuclear Weapon Keeps the Bear Away.
sunak eviscerated by Select Committee, plays "Computer says no" card
"He was pressed on why he had still chosen to announce tax-cutting measures rather than give more help to those who were out of work.
Mr Sunak told MPs that because of the way the social security system operates it would not have been possible to scale up benefits at such short notice."
I'm on the train into that London from Gatwick and am one of very few in a mask. I'm not going to wear one all day - it'll be off on the communal office. But where it's no imposition and it reduces to very low my chance of catching it now why not wear a mask?
I'm way too busy to get Covid. So I wear a mask and think what I am doing. Others could do the same and we wouldn't have the quiet epidemic we are currently suffering.
FPN recipients can not pay, and wait to be prosecuted after 28 days, which is what you'd expect them to do. How long is that sort of case taking to get to a hearing ATM? And how much longer if there's an appeal to the Crown Court?
N95s probably do a something.
Tories most votes 70%.
Most seats 58%.
Makes no sense. All psephologists agree, I think, that on a most votes tie, the Conservatives would have most seats.
It is entirely possible for Labour to win the popular vote by 2, maybe even 3%, and still have fewer seats.
Most seats is value. Most votes doesn't look it to me.
Whoever is the Conservative leader at the next election, they are likely to say that a woman is an adult human female, and wait for the other parties to tie themselves in knots trying to avoid quoting the dictionary definition of the word.
https://twitter.com/bert_hu_bert/status/1508713195992723458
REAKING: According to the
@ENTSOG
European natural gas transparency data, no more Russian gas is coming through Ukraine since two hours. This represents over 25% of all Russian gas sales to Europe. Hourly updates on: https://berthub.eu/gazmon/ /cc
Born Isidore Poppick...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/27/obituaries/martin-pope-dead.html
...After serving as a first lieutenant in the Army Air Forces in World War II, he sought employment. Aware of an undercurrent of antisemitism, Dr. Pope applied in 1946 for a position at the American Cyanamid Company using two names: Isidore Poppick, with the published paper listed on his résumé, and Martin Pope, with no such record.
“Martin Pope received an application, and Isidore Poppick received a notice that no positions were available,” Dr. Pope said. “I decided to use Martin Pope as my new name.” One of Dr. Pope’s brothers also changed his name to Pope when he encountered similar prejudice while looking for work...
Anecdotally, as far as I can see it is a massive wave at moment.
I'm not sure what security guarantees we can offer that will be more convincing than the ones offered in 1994, that don't involve a permanent British military base in Ukraine - which presumably wouldn't be seen as very neutral.
@Peston
·
1m
Met confirms it is initially issuing 20 fines for the Downing St and Cabinet Office partying that breached Covid19 rules. It won’t say who is being fined, or even identify the relevant parties. But the police say this is just the start, and there may be further fines to come
- Is gender more important than sex in deciding access to services?
- What is a "she-cock" and does it belong in women's prisons or refuges?
- Is a Lesbian who refuses to suck a "she-cock" a homophobe?
Interested in your thoughts. And reasoning.
Well, as fair as you can get with our half-baked FPTP electoral system.
Reliant on the SNP winning all of the seats with half of the votes.
Www.terfisaslur.com
-We worked hard to keep Ukraine out of NATO.
-We denied Ukraine arms, even blocked others from doing so.
-We cooperated directly with Russia's military until at least 2014.
-We funded Russia's armament more than most.
-We helped Russia bypass Ukraine's gas transit (NS1&2).[2/3]
-But most of all, we were the last ones to invade, bomb and kill in Ukraine, and vowed "never again".
It is painful to see that other countries are stepping up more than Germany at this historic time. I hope that we can still change course. [3/3]
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1508711817576689666
By female do you mean biological sex or legal gender?
Biological sex.
So to be a woman you must be born female?
Yes.
So why do we have a legal route to change gender if such a change is meaningless?
(Just to illustrate it's not *quite* such a slam dunk the other way as many seem to think.)
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
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41m
COLUMN: The water lever of the Rhine river is running at the lowest for early spring in at least 15 years -- and that could be a big problem for Germany, oil, steel, chemical and coal markets
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas
For the very few people who want to transition, there is a long medical process to go through.
The other level is: What is the current UK law on sex, gender and what is and is not allowed in medical, practical and moral arrangements; and what ways would your party change it/keep it the same/reverse it.
That second level is quite hard. Few politicians could even tell you the present state of law and practice.
It would as a system still be at risk from hypersonic missiles launched from within Russia. But other sanctions will have to be used to deal with that.
However Starmer would still likely become PM in a hung parliament if he can get SNP and LD support
https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1508594531477954560?s=20&t=2wL2JmONZWut-YZUpdzjpA
Yes of course it is a tax rise aimed at the well off as that is what Democrats do as I originally said over 12 hours ago!
Understand some Tory MPs feel “deeply uncomfortable” about voting against Labour’s motion this afternoon, which asks govt to release information revealing whether PM ignored security concerns over Evgeny Lebedev’s peerage. One to watch.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1508723921889402883
Seems a bit odd that they request mask-wearing, it'll be interesting to see how many visitors comply.
Though it is interesting that they have edge towards... something. For many years, in US defence circles, it was held that firing such rocket propelled hyper velocity weapons from aircraft would look too much like a nuclear strike. Hence the insistence on the long, costly air breather programs.
Guess that taboo is broken now.
'Can a woman have a penis?'
'Yes, of course they can, just as a man may have a vulva. It's well established scientifically that in some cases a person's gender is not reflected by their biological sex and there exist legal routes for people to live and be recognised as their preferred sex. While the rights of trans people require careful balancing against existing sex based protections in order to stop potential loopholes and abuse, a woman may have a penis. In my experience they tend not have one very often.'
Sky news, having got their clip of me saying 'Yes of course' have already packed up their kit and begun the process of editing my rant.
If you consider gender as a non-biological concept, what proof can there be, beyond an opinion? I'm not saying that's necessarily wrong (it's akin to a religious person's belief in God), I'm questioning whether it both is and can be scientifically proven.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyongyang_Golf_Course
Our boy Kim registered eleven of them the first time he played.