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Yorkshire LAB getting excited about a possible by-election gain from CON – politicalbetting.com

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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Today is Saturday, We've Analytical Scores:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 38% (+1)
    CON: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    GRN: 7% (-)

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1507810064115064839?t=1VofGhAhOSgn6of5eIe8og&s=19

    via OpiniumResearch, 23 - 25 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 11 Feb


    Last best chance for a Conservative lead this month? And if not this month, when?

    Three months and 20 days since the last Tory poll lead.
    So after the 'worst budget ever' with the press/twitter /PB all in total agreement that the public hated every last bit of it we have a no change opinion poll and a static 2 point Labour lead. Yet again the great British public remain firmly off message. How can it be? :smiley:
  • A run out.

    What the hell is going on out there? Is nobody in charge?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    A run out.

    What the hell is going on out there? Is nobody in charge?

    Don't worry, we're about to get into the batters.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    tlg86 said:

    I’m doing a job application, and I was amused by the fact that whoever built the list for ethnic group failed to notice that a return carriage had created two rows.

    I guess Irish/British could be valid, but some applicants might think that “White - English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern” is taking the piss.


    It took me awhile to get that, but once I did it made me and my wife laugh out loud.

    Maybe it is to ensure the company canteen has enough black pudding on the menu and somewhere to put your flat cap and whippet.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,703

    A run out.

    What the hell is going on out there? Is nobody in charge?

    No ... yes ... yes ... no ... NO!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    felix said:

    Today is Saturday, We've Analytical Scores:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 38% (+1)
    CON: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    GRN: 7% (-)

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1507810064115064839?t=1VofGhAhOSgn6of5eIe8og&s=19

    via OpiniumResearch, 23 - 25 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 11 Feb


    Last best chance for a Conservative lead this month? And if not this month, when?

    Three months and 20 days since the last Tory poll lead.
    So after the 'worst budget ever' with the press/twitter /PB all in total agreement that the public hated every last bit of it we have a no change opinion poll and a static 2 point Labour lead. Yet again the great British public remain firmly off message. How can it be? :smiley:
    2 reasons. Everyone expected a damp squib, and got it. It also usually takes 7-10 days to hit the polls.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    A run out.

    What the hell is going on out there? Is nobody in charge?

    No ... yes ... yes ... no ... NO!
    ....Sorry!
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    That's over half of the 561 the Ukrainians are calming, perhaps the Ukrainians are not overly optimistic/exaggerating by that much.

    :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    tlg86 said:

    Will the Windies have to bat again?

    If Alex Lees carries his bat, just give up and go home as all reason has departed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    felix said:

    Today is Saturday, We've Analytical Scores:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 38% (+1)
    CON: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    GRN: 7% (-)

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1507810064115064839?t=1VofGhAhOSgn6of5eIe8og&s=19

    via OpiniumResearch, 23 - 25 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 11 Feb


    Last best chance for a Conservative lead this month? And if not this month, when?

    Three months and 20 days since the last Tory poll lead.
    So after the 'worst budget ever' with the press/twitter /PB all in total agreement that the public hated every last bit of it we have a no change opinion poll and a static 2 point Labour lead. Yet again the great British public remain firmly off message. How can it be? :smiley:
    Have to say I am surprised

    Perhaps SKS is even worse than I assumed
  • tlg86 said:

    A run out.

    What the hell is going on out there? Is nobody in charge?

    No ... yes ... yes ... no ... NO!
    ....Sorry!
    Indeed.

    At 83-5 what on earth are you doing taking chancy runs?

    Schoolkids are taught better than that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    For the first time in over two years, went to St James's Park (um, the one in London, not Newcastle!) today, it was packed!

    Not the one in Exeter?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1507679835925188608?cxt=HHwWgMC49dO0rewpAAAA

    Ukraine today.

    Absolutely insane - I wouldn't want to be in the same vehicle if the roos got panicked by gunfire.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited March 2022
    Christian Eriksen comes off the bench and scores straight away in his first game back for Denmark since his heart stopped, during Euro 2020.

    What a story!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404
    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1507679835925188608?cxt=HHwWgMC49dO0rewpAAAA

    Ukraine today.

    Absolutely insane - I wouldn't want to be in the same vehicle if the roos got panicked by gunfire.

    Look, it was either drive the kangaroo evacuation vehicle or the hippopotamus evacuation vehicle.

    He made the right choice.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    For the first time in over two years, went to St James's Park (um, the one in London, not Newcastle!) today, it was packed!

    Not the one in Exeter?
    Passed through on the way to Exmouth in 2018.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Foxy said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar

    And a 2% YG also just dropped
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    On the plus side, Grenada looks beautiful, so England can have a nice holiday if they lose tonight.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    Foxy said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar

    And a 2% YG also just dropped
    No Tory poll leads since December 6th. @bigjohnowls please explain
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 37% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 23 Mar
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Foxy said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar

    And a 2% YG also just dropped
    No Tory poll leads since December 6th. @bigjohnowls please explain
    Lead down to 2% after worst Budget since GO

    SKS fan called Sunil please explain
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2022
    tlg86 said:

    On the plus side, Grenada looks beautiful, so England can have a nice holiday if they lose tonight.

    Fucking embarrassing. England batsmen have two modes, out quickly or out slowly but without actually scoring many runs.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    tlg86 said:

    On the plus side, Grenada looks beautiful, so England can have a nice holiday if they lose tonight.

    Fucking embarrassing. England batsmen have two modes, out quickly or out slowly but without actually scoring many runs.
    Utter * shyte performance by England 😡😡😡
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    Foxy said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar

    @bigjohnowls please explain
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    felix said:


    So after the 'worst budget ever' with the press/twitter /PB all in total agreement that the public hated every last bit of it we have a no change opinion poll and a static 2 point Labour lead. Yet again the great British public remain firmly off message. How can it be? :smiley:

    Nice try - first, Boris Johnson was going to get a big poll boost because of how well he had done over Ukraine. This was his "Falklands" moment and a grateful British people would reward the Conservatives with renewed support.

    Then, the Conservatives were going to get a poll boost because of the generosity of the wonderful Rishi Sunak and the natural gratitude of the people for his economic genius rescuing us from those nasty energy bills.

    Still, 2-5 points behind is better than 12-15 points behind - perhaps we've got that to look forward to :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

     

    mwadams said:

    kle4 said:

    No idea what all this means, but I suspect it is not good for Mad Vlad:



    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    14m
    BREAKING:

    Russia has stated that the Army of Azerbaijan has entered the zone in Armenia held by 2000 Russian “peacekeeping soldiers” in accordance with the Nagorno-Karabakh Ceasefire Agreement from November 2020.

    Russia says it’s now moving troops to their initial positions.


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1507809504540377100

    Hey, if Azerbaijan perceives a threat that is justified despite agreements, right Russia?
    I have read the thread and the explainer and I am still unclear what the heck any of that means.
    AIUI the Russians are there as peacekeepers. The Azeris seem to relish another bash at the Armenians.

    Given they lost, I'm surprised the Armenia PM did not resign, indeed he's won reelection since (though wiki says he dimissed the Chief of the General Staff following an attempt at a coup).
    "Bayraktar TB2 drones were used extensively by Azerbaijani forces during the war."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2022
    Although the budget doesn't seem to have changed anything (yet), the big problems the Tories have unlike say when the media wank themselves silly over nonsense like the Pasty Tax (or Rishi using somebodies else car) and where the noise passes and the world moves on, is that inflation isn't going anywhere and all the problems associated with it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    8 down.....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    8 down.....

    Situations like this I suspect the England team will be glad to end it today. Not been a good match for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    8 down.....

    More like 9 - if you include how they have lost my respect as well as the wicket.
  • 8 down.....

    They can hardly blame the wicket. If tailenders can hang around on it for a couple of hours on it, there can't be much wrong with it.

    You have to start thinking they really don't care very much.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    Although the budget doesn't seem to have changed anything (yet), the big problems the Tories have unlike say when the media wank themselves silly over nonsense like the Pasty Tax (or Rishi using somebodies else car) and where the noise passes and the world moves on, is that inflation isn't going anywhere and all the problems associated with it.

    And folk haven't have their doubled or more direct debits taken yet.
    Big danger of a collapse in discretionary spending.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Foxy said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar

    @bigjohnowls please explain
    Tories up to their neck in Parties and Russian money, its mid term they have just produced the shittest budget in the whole of Budget Land and on the 3 polls tonight the best SKS can average is a 3pt lead.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    tlg86 said:

    On the plus side, Grenada looks beautiful, so England can have a nice holiday if they lose tonight.

    'If'?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    8 down.....

    They can hardly blame the wicket. If tailenders can hang around on it for a couple of hours on it, there can't be much wrong with it.

    You have to start thinking they really don't care very much.
    I know Lees is crap but calling him a tailender is a tad harsh ;-)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    8 down.....

    They can hardly blame the wicket. If tailenders can hang around on it for a couple of hours on it, there can't be much wrong with it.

    You have to start thinking they really don't care very much.
    I’ve heard players say that they find that type of accusation frustrating. I’m sure they care, a lot. But sadly the technique to counter the moving ball is lacking for too many of the batsmen. Why would they need it when you make millions on flat tracks slogging for a few overs? The ECB has shown its priorities with an even shorter form of the game, and with shoving the championship to the outer limits of what is practicable in the English ‘summer’. I note that we could be about to see a significant cold spell shortly just as the season is about to start. It used to be 1000 runs in May as a marker, now its almost possible in April. Then at the other end it’s almost into October.
    That’s no way to develop test cricketers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2022
    England test team batting is literally hope to god Root or Stokes gets in......and the tailenders can block out the odd ball.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    tlg86 said:

    On the plus side, Grenada looks beautiful, so England can have a nice holiday if they lose tonight.

    'If'?
    At least we finally stopped playing Australia every day. God, it took them a long time to get the message that we were outclassed and needed to find an easier team to play. It seems we’re still looking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    8 down.....

    They can hardly blame the wicket. If tailenders can hang around on it for a couple of hours on it, there can't be much wrong with it.

    You have to start thinking they really don't care very much.
    Nor do the management.

    Series with eight batting collapses? Drop your bowlers.

    Insufficient first class cricket? Put on a loss making tournament at the height of the summer.

    I have a horrible feeling we're seeing here what we saw in the Windies itself in the late 1990s. Incompetence, maladministration and a loss of interest in the game boiling up to one toxic mix.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Foxy said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 35% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 17 Mar

    @bigjohnowls please explain
    Tories up to their neck in Parties and Russian money, its mid term they have just produced the shittest budget in the whole of Budget Land and on the 3 polls tonight the best SKS can average is a 3pt lead.
    What is your point? What sort of lead would you expect Captain I am not a 4x2 hater, no sirree, but all my mates are, to be scoring at this stage? Should Starmer stand aside for a proper kike hater, or reposition himself to be more clearly aligned against zion, or what?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926
    stodge said:


    I've seen it argued events in Afghanistan persuaded Putin the west would fold quicker than the average deckchair and accept the fait accompli of a Russian takeover. Wrong again.

    I'm not sure he was wrong on that point -- but the thing about presenting your opponent with a fait accompli is that you have to actually accomplish the fait before they have a chance to intervene...
  • 8 down.....

    They can hardly blame the wicket. If tailenders can hang around on it for a couple of hours on it, there can't be much wrong with it.

    You have to start thinking they really don't care very much.
    I’ve heard players say that they find that type of accusation frustrating. I’m sure they care, a lot. But sadly the technique to counter the moving ball is lacking for too many of the batsmen. Why would they need it when you make millions on flat tracks slogging for a few overs? The ECB has shown its priorities with an even shorter form of the game, and with shoving the championship to the outer limits of what is practicable in the English ‘summer’. I note that we could be about to see a significant cold spell shortly just as the season is about to start. It used to be 1000 runs in May as a marker, now its almost possible in April. Then at the other end it’s almost into October.
    That’s no way to develop test cricketers.
    That's certainly a key factor, if not the main one. If we're not going to take the red-ball game seriously then let's stop pretending. Get rid of the County Championship for a start. It's been reduced to a farce anyway so let's put an end to it.

    If we do then continue to play Test Criket at all - an it's moot whether we should or not - we'll simply have to accept second or third tier staus and accept most of our games will be against Ireland/Netherlands/Zimbabwe etc. No way should we be playing the likes of India/Australia/NZ etc. It's just embarrassing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2022
    Its not just the batting. England bowling attack has no depth, especially away from England. Archer is the only world class out and out fast bowler we have that the other teams shit themselves they have to face. Outside of the OAP twins, Woakes, Overton, insert any of the other 5-6 options England keep trying aren't up to it outside English conditions. Leech isn't a world class spinner, neither is Bess or any of the other options.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    Today is Saturday, We've Analytical Scores:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 38% (+1)
    CON: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    GRN: 7% (-)

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1507810064115064839?t=1VofGhAhOSgn6of5eIe8og&s=19

    via OpiniumResearch, 23 - 25 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 11 Feb


    Last best chance for a Conservative lead this month? And if not this month, when?

    Three months and 20 days since the last Tory poll lead.
    So after the 'worst budget ever' with the press/twitter /PB all in total agreement that the public hated every last bit of it we have a no change opinion poll and a static 2 point Labour lead. Yet again the great British public remain firmly off message. How can it be? :smiley:
    Tedious goady fuckwittery. If it's so great here why don't you live here?

    Not but what I find you the single most convincing poster on here. Every time I read your claim to have been the head of an English state school, I am reinforced in my belief that having my children privately educated was money well spent.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819508609679364?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1507819508609679364|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

    Interesting thread on a possible existential crisis for Russia. The TV panel is particularly striking. Is the guy saying that Russia has to go all in in Ukraine. That any negotiation would be effective defeat and the 'end of the Russian state?' You can't be without a certain fear when a country with a supposedly enormous nuclear arsenal faces abject humiliation.

    Of all the outcomes from this war, internal crisis inside Russia is a distinct possibility.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    8 down.....

    They can hardly blame the wicket. If tailenders can hang around on it for a couple of hours on it, there can't be much wrong with it.

    You have to start thinking they really don't care very much.
    I’ve heard players say that they find that type of accusation frustrating. I’m sure they care, a lot. But sadly the technique to counter the moving ball is lacking for too many of the batsmen. Why would they need it when you make millions on flat tracks slogging for a few overs? The ECB has shown its priorities with an even shorter form of the game, and with shoving the championship to the outer limits of what is practicable in the English ‘summer’. I note that we could be about to see a significant cold spell shortly just as the season is about to start. It used to be 1000 runs in May as a marker, now its almost possible in April. Then at the other end it’s almost into October.
    That’s no way to develop test cricketers.
    That's certainly a key factor, if not the main one. If we're not going to take the red-ball game seriously then let's stop pretending. Get rid of the County Championship for a start. It's been reduced to a farce anyway so let's put an end to it.

    If we do then continue to play Test Criket at all - an it's moot whether we should or not - we'll simply have to accept second or third tier staus and accept most of our games will be against Ireland/Netherlands/Zimbabwe etc. No way should we be playing the likes of India/Australia/NZ etc. It's just embarrassing.
    I think that goes too far. At the heart of our current issues are the disasterous World Cup before the one we won. It became a top priority, and it worked. All too well. Cricket is also cyclical, and I have no doubt that we will come good again eventually.
    I suspect, but have no evidence, that there is a plan somewhere to reduce the counties to the hundred sides for first class too. That would give a stronger 4 day game, in theory, more akin to the Aussie Sheffield shield. They tried with the two tier championship to achieve the same thing, and it kind of worked, although the bbc in particular never got the message that the first division was meant to be the top tier, frequently giving more attention/priority to second division games in a way they would never do for football.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    I rate the West Indies bowling but Mayers is nothing special is he? Stats suggest more of a journeyman.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Supermarket. Everybody wearing masks apart from two 30-ish year old men, so ~98% wearing.

    I've started not to wear a mask. I guess you'd like me to? In which case I will.
    One of the strange things about living in one place and spending lots of time in another is you notice the wide variation in the two.

    Walk into a supermarket in Stroud not wearing a mask and they look at you like you've dropped out of a dog's arse.

    Walk into a supermarket round here wearing one and they're on the phone saying a lunatic's escaped.
    Asked my wife about Sainsbury's, Cobham (I don't know as, and I know this will come as a surprise to all of you, but I have broken legs 😁 so haven't been in a shop for awhile). She reckoned only 2 wearing masks. And we aren't far away from Nick in Godalming.

    Was Nick in Sainsbury's or Waitrose? Could be Sainsbury's customers have a devil may care attitude.
    Sainsbury's. I think it's one of those "do what everyone else is doing" things, so you can get random variation in similar areas. A week or two ago now and I'm busily isolating, so I don't know if it's changed.

    Personally I'm regretting going to the animal welfare reception - definitely not worth getting Covid. I think the sensible thing at the moment is to socialise when you really want to, just set the bar higher than you would in normal times. A political reception? Meh.

    As for the polls, I think people have parked politics again as they did at the height of the pandemic. They aren't especially interested in funding scandals, they thought the mini-Budget was a bit rubbish but it didn't have an immediate impact on most people, and the news is all about Ukraine 2 days out of 3.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    This thread

    has been selected to open the batting for England

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    BigRich said:

    That's over half of the 561 the Ukrainians are calming, perhaps the Ukrainians are not overly optimistic/exaggerating by that much.

    :)
    Oryx has a huge backlog of images to get through. The gap between Ukrainian claims and supported "kills" is likely to be significantly closer.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870

    tlg86 said:

    A run out.

    What the hell is going on out there? Is nobody in charge?

    No ... yes ... yes ... no ... NO!
    ....Sorry!
    Indeed.

    At 83-5 what on earth are you doing taking chancy runs?

    Schoolkids are taught better than that.
    English cricket authorities either don’t understand the difference between test and county cricket an the limited overs stuff, don’t care, or want rid of the long game because it doesn’t raise enough TV revenue. If people want to see a result in a couple of hours, let them watch rounders. Some of us appreciate the subtlety of test and county cricket. Alas, we seem to be an endangered minority. 😟
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