I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Perhaps: but one aim that has been posited is that Russia want to stop Ukraine having access to the sea. That would mean eventually taking the coast as far as Odessa. If they manage to get most of their troops out of the quagmire in the north, that might be achievable.
If.
I have mentioned a few times, that they were never going to take Odesa, perhaps if everything was going well in the first couple of days them maybe at a push. but after that, its been well beyond Russian ability.
Sadly, the sanctions, most of them anyway will be lifted very quickly, Germany and others need Russian gas, and other commodity's in significant quantity's to stop price rises and reception, France and a few others don't what sanctions to get it the way of there business, and will largely ignore or work around them, and fairly quickly other companies and contrary's will be saying why are we missing out on business. Some sanctions e.g. on top grade computer chips might remain but china and black market middle men will get enough to Russia. some of the big Yauts might stay frozen as symbols that we are still sanctioning but not much more than that.
Germany and others will spend a touch more on military this year and maybe next, but the 100 million will be delayed and then forgotten, not that it would have done much anyway, Germany has now after 3 weeks run out of kit they can send to Ukraine, apparently, because they have very lintel usable spare kit.
Ukraine will largely feel abandoned by the west, sad that after being so brave they still had to concede so much to Russia, traumatised by the fighting and all the death. and still have shattered infastucher,
Russia will still have been able to expand its territory in an unprovoked war, yes his men did not do well, but his people at home don't know/believe that, to them he looks like a hero. his army will learn lessons, and be able to make better weapons have better combat based tuning. and will be stronger next time. He has lost a lot of men, but Putin does not care, most of the equipment he has lost was old or not very good. Putin now has stronger control of Russia than he has ever had, with his control over the media, 15,000 of his opponents in prison, and many 100,000s more who have self exiled.
And today he has still proved Putin can still stock internal division in the West by mentioning JK Rolling. and he still has a big bargaining chip in the form of the 402,000 civilians he has deported form Mariupol and other places.
I hope I am wrong, and we still don't know, But I think Putin/authoritarian strongmen have won, and the west/freedom/democracy has lost. outside Europe North America, NZ, Australia South Korea and Japan. support has been thin on the ground for Ukraine, yes most nations voted one way in the UN, but not all and many abstained, others only did so with prodding and because they know it amounted to nothing. there does not seem even a willingness to explode Russia from the next G20 meeting.
all very sad, we as in the west had a window of opportunity to arm Ukraine to the max in the first week, MiG 29s, from Poland, S-300 from Slovakia, anti ship missiles for Odesa, or maybe land lunched torpedo's. and we could have sent enough uniforms, guns mortars, and so on for a 2 million army.
I think German rearming happens whatever - simply because of how embarrassed Germany has been by the preparedness of its forces. There's a piece in the NYTimes looking at their regiment in Lithuania, and how poorly equipped it is compared to British/Polish/Lithuanian forces.
I don't disagree with your other points: I think that much of Continental Europe would be happy with Putin to return to the pre-Feb 22 borders, and the oil and gas to start flowing again.
A better outcome for everyone - including the Russians themselves - is regime change. A new leader would (I'm sure) be very happy to walk back Putin's mistakes, because it is in Russia's interests.
If the West hangs together, and is willing to continue to back Ukraine, then I think we can achieve this. And Putin may well conspire to help us: simply he'll be desperate to show some gain (i.e. Mauripol and the coast), and I don't think that'll be sufficient.
I think a big chunk of Germany’s budget is going to have to be spent on training their trainers. Considering their best company trained the Russians it doesn’t look like there is any point in buying kit if they don’t know what to do with it when they have it.
Unless it was a giant trolling effort by the Germans - “yes Russian soldiers, best plan is to group tanks and infantry tight together on main roads surrounded by woodland”…. The best German joke since, well, ever.
I don't know whether training is the issue - I think it is simply that the Germans haven't bought any new kit for twenty years and none of their tanks even work.
Sadly, the sanctions, most of them anyway will be lifted very quickly, Germany and others need Russian gas, and other commodity's in significant quantity's to stop price rises and reception, France and a few others don't what sanctions to get it the way of there business, and will largely ignore or work around them, and fairly quickly other companies and contrary's will be saying why are we missing out on business. Some sanctions e.g. on top grade computer chips might remain but china and black market middle men will get enough to Russia. some of the big Yauts might stay frozen as symbols that we are still sanctioning but not much more than that.
Germany and others will spend a touch more on military this year and maybe next, but the 100 million will be delayed and then forgotten, not that it would have done much anyway, Germany has now after 3 weeks run out of kit they can send to Ukraine, apparently, because they have very lintel usable spare kit.
Ukraine will largely feel abandoned by the west, sad that after being so brave they still had to concede so much to Russia, traumatised by the fighting and all the death. and still have shattered infastucher,
Russia will still have been able to expand its territory in an unprovoked war, yes his men did not do well, but his people at home don't know/believe that, to them he looks like a hero. his army will learn lessons, and be able to make better weapons have better combat based tuning. and will be stronger next time. He has lost a lot of men, but Putin does not care, most of the equipment he has lost was old or not very good. Putin now has stronger control of Russia than he has ever had, with his control over the media, 15,000 of his opponents in prison, and many 100,000s more who have self exiled.
And today he has still proved Putin can still stock internal division in the West by mentioning JK Rolling. and he still has a big bargaining chip in the form of the 402,000 civilians he has deported form Mariupol and other places.
I hope I am wrong, and we still don't know, But I think Putin/authoritarian strongmen have won, and the west/freedom/democracy has lost. outside Europe North America, NZ, Australia South Korea and Japan. support has been thin on the ground for Ukraine, yes most nations voted one way in the UN, but not all and many abstained, others only did so with prodding and because they know it amounted to nothing. there does not seem even a willingness to explode Russia from the next G20 meeting.
all very sad, we as in the west had a window of opportunity to arm Ukraine to the max in the first week, MiG 29s, from Poland, S-300 from Slovakia, anti ship missiles for Odesa, or maybe land lunched torpedo's. and we could have sent enough uniforms, guns mortars, and so on for a 2 million army.
I think German rearming happens whatever - simply because of how embarrassed Germany has been by the preparedness of its forces. There's a piece in the NYTimes looking at their regiment in Lithuania, and how poorly equipped it is compared to British/Polish/Lithuanian forces.
I don't disagree with your other points: I think that much of Continental Europe would be happy with Putin to return to the pre-Feb 22 borders, and the oil and gas to start flowing again.
A better outcome for everyone - including the Russians themselves - is regime change. A new leader would (I'm sure) be very happy to walk back Putin's mistakes, because it is in Russia's interests.
If the West hangs together, and is willing to continue to back Ukraine, then I think we can achieve this. And Putin may well conspire to help us: simply he'll be desperate to show some gain (i.e. Mauripol and the coast), and I don't think that'll be sufficient.
I think a big chunk of Germany’s budget is going to have to be spent on training their trainers. Considering their best company trained the Russians it doesn’t look like there is any point in buying kit if they don’t know what to do with it when they have it.
Unless it was a giant trolling effort by the Germans - “yes Russian soldiers, best plan is to group tanks and infantry tight together on main roads surrounded by woodland”…. The best German joke since, well, ever.
I don't know whether training is the issue - I think it is simply that the Germans haven't bought any new kit for twenty years and none of their tanks even work.
There is a part of me that still thinks that having a Germany with no real army is not a bad thing...
Moi aussi.
It kind of suits the UK to be one of only three serious players in Europe this side of the Carpathians.
UK, France and...
and...
err...
and...
No, not UK. Not European.
Netherlands? Poland? Is Poland this side of the Carpathians?
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Sadly, the sanctions, most of them anyway will be lifted very quickly, Germany and others need Russian gas, and other commodity's in significant quantity's to stop price rises and reception, France and a few others don't what sanctions to get it the way of there business, and will largely ignore or work around them, and fairly quickly other companies and contrary's will be saying why are we missing out on business. Some sanctions e.g. on top grade computer chips might remain but china and black market middle men will get enough to Russia. some of the big Yauts might stay frozen as symbols that we are still sanctioning but not much more than that.
Germany and others will spend a touch more on military this year and maybe next, but the 100 million will be delayed and then forgotten, not that it would have done much anyway, Germany has now after 3 weeks run out of kit they can send to Ukraine, apparently, because they have very lintel usable spare kit.
Ukraine will largely feel abandoned by the west, sad that after being so brave they still had to concede so much to Russia, traumatised by the fighting and all the death. and still have shattered infastucher,
Russia will still have been able to expand its territory in an unprovoked war, yes his men did not do well, but his people at home don't know/believe that, to them he looks like a hero. his army will learn lessons, and be able to make better weapons have better combat based tuning. and will be stronger next time. He has lost a lot of men, but Putin does not care, most of the equipment he has lost was old or not very good. Putin now has stronger control of Russia than he has ever had, with his control over the media, 15,000 of his opponents in prison, and many 100,000s more who have self exiled.
And today he has still proved Putin can still stock internal division in the West by mentioning JK Rolling. and he still has a big bargaining chip in the form of the 402,000 civilians he has deported form Mariupol and other places.
I hope I am wrong, and we still don't know, But I think Putin/authoritarian strongmen have won, and the west/freedom/democracy has lost. outside Europe North America, NZ, Australia South Korea and Japan. support has been thin on the ground for Ukraine, yes most nations voted one way in the UN, but not all and many abstained, others only did so with prodding and because they know it amounted to nothing. there does not seem even a willingness to explode Russia from the next G20 meeting.
all very sad, we as in the west had a window of opportunity to arm Ukraine to the max in the first week, MiG 29s, from Poland, S-300 from Slovakia, anti ship missiles for Odesa, or maybe land lunched torpedo's. and we could have sent enough uniforms, guns mortars, and so on for a 2 million army.
I think German rearming happens whatever - simply because of how embarrassed Germany has been by the preparedness of its forces. There's a piece in the NYTimes looking at their regiment in Lithuania, and how poorly equipped it is compared to British/Polish/Lithuanian forces.
I don't disagree with your other points: I think that much of Continental Europe would be happy with Putin to return to the pre-Feb 22 borders, and the oil and gas to start flowing again.
A better outcome for everyone - including the Russians themselves - is regime change. A new leader would (I'm sure) be very happy to walk back Putin's mistakes, because it is in Russia's interests.
If the West hangs together, and is willing to continue to back Ukraine, then I think we can achieve this. And Putin may well conspire to help us: simply he'll be desperate to show some gain (i.e. Mauripol and the coast), and I don't think that'll be sufficient.
I think a big chunk of Germany’s budget is going to have to be spent on training their trainers. Considering their best company trained the Russians it doesn’t look like there is any point in buying kit if they don’t know what to do with it when they have it.
Unless it was a giant trolling effort by the Germans - “yes Russian soldiers, best plan is to group tanks and infantry tight together on main roads surrounded by woodland”…. The best German joke since, well, ever.
I don't know whether training is the issue - I think it is simply that the Germans haven't bought any new kit for twenty years and none of their tanks even work.
There is a part of me that still thinks that having a Germany with no real army is not a bad thing...
Moi aussi.
It kind of suits the UK to be one of only three serious players in Europe this side of the Carpathians.
Dearie me, BBC News have misplaced their customary fawning tone on the Rasta Royals & their Carribean jaunt: 'overtones of privilege and separation' in Jamaica. Still, things back on track for their Duke of Windsor commemorative visit to the Bahamas, the joy was inescapable apparently.
Telegraph (H. Mount) asking if the Commonwealth can be saved. But ££ so I never found out if they want to go all Fortress White Anglos like some 19th century racial-geographical strategist, or some on here
'It is possible to maintain that umbilical link between the monarchy and the Commonwealth. But few would argue against a need for the monarch and their advisers to establish a modern and delicate balancing act – to maintain the Commonwealth as a club of equals, rather than giving the impression of a top-down set of former colonies. '
Sensible conclusion from Mount. Most Commonwealth nations already no longer have the Queen as Head of State. It should still be an organisation promoting trade and sporting and development links and democracy. However the Commonwealth realms are likely to soon just be the UK and the other white, British origin majority Commonwealth nations ie Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The Commonwealth is really represented by a Secretary General, currently Baroness Scotland, previously Kamalesh Sharma and the head does not even need to be the British monarch. Although Charles has got the role after the Queen he should treat it much as the Archbishop of Canterbury treats his role as head of the Anglican Communion. A first amongst equals, not a top down head like the Pope search-results/fulmar/682843.
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Perhaps: but one aim that has been posited is that Russia want to stop Ukraine having access to the sea. That would mean eventually taking the coast as far as Odessa. If they manage to get most of their troops out of the quagmire in the north, that might be achievable.
If.
I have mentioned a few times, that they were never going to take Odesa, perhaps if everything was going well in the first couple of days them maybe at a push. but after that, its been well beyond Russian ability.
I had assumed that Ukraine was doomed when I heard about the invasion. Even after about a week I thought that they were just bravely delaying the inevitable.
Sadly, the sanctions, most of them anyway will be lifted very quickly, Germany and others need Russian gas, and other commodity's in significant quantity's to stop price rises and reception, France and a few others don't what sanctions to get it the way of there business, and will largely ignore or work around them, and fairly quickly other companies and contrary's will be saying why are we missing out on business. Some sanctions e.g. on top grade computer chips might remain but china and black market I have middle men will get enough to Russia. some of the big Yauts might stay frozen as symbols that we are still sanctioning but not much more than that.
Germany and others will spend a touch more on military this year and maybe next, but the 100 million will be delayed and then forgotten, not that it would have done much anyway, Germany has now after 3 weeks run out of kit they can send to Ukraine, apparently, because they have very lintel usable spare kit.
Ukraine will largely feel abandoned by the west, sad that after being so brave they still had to concede so much to Russia, traumatised by the fighting and all the death. and still have shattered infastucher,
Russia will still have been able to expand its territory in an unprovoked war, yes his men did not do well, but his people at home don't know/believe that, to them he looks like a hero. his army will learn lessons, and be able to make better weapons have better combat based tuning. and will be stronger next time. He has lost a lot of men, but Putin does not care, most of the equipment he has lost was old or not very good. Putin now has stronger control of Russia than he has ever had, with his control over the media, 15,000 of his opponents in prison, and many 100,000s more who have self exiled.
And today he has still proved Putin can still stock internal division in the West by mentioning JK Rolling. and he still has a big bargaining chip in the form of the 402,000 civilians he has deported form Mariupol and other places.
I hope I am wrong, and we still don't know, But I think Putin/authoritarian strongmen have won, and the west/freedom/democracy has lost. outside Europe North America, NZ, Australia South Korea and Japan. support has been thin on the ground for Ukraine, yes most nations voted one way in the UN, but not all and many abstained, others only did so with prodding and because they know it amounted to nothing. there does not seem even a willingness to explode Russia from the next G20 meeting.
all very sad, we as in the west had a window of opportunity to arm Ukraine to the max in the first week, MiG 29s, from Poland, S-300 from Slovakia, anti ship missiles for Odesa, or maybe land lunched torpedo's. and we could have sent enough uniforms, guns mortars, and so on for a 2 million army.
I think German rearming happens whatever - simply because of how embarrassed Germany has been by the preparedness of its forces. There's a piece in the NYTimes looking at their regiment in Lithuania, and how poorly equipped it is compared to British/Polish/Lithuanian forces.
I don't disagree with your other points: I think that much of Continental Europe would be happy with Putin to return to the pre-Feb 22 borders, and the oil and gas to start flowing again.
A better outcome for everyone - including the Russians themselves - is regime change. A new leader would (I'm sure) be very happy to walk back Putin's mistakes, because it is in Russia's interests.
If the West hangs together, and is willing to continue to back Ukraine, then I think we can achieve this. And Putin may well conspire to help us: simply he'll be desperate to show some gain (i.e. Mauripol and the coast), and I don't think that'll be sufficient.
I think a big chunk of Germany’s budget is going to have to be spent on training their trainers. Considering their best company trained the Russians it doesn’t look like there is any point in buying kit if they don’t know what to do with it when they have it.
Unless it was a giant trolling effort by the Germans - “yes Russian soldiers, best plan is to group tanks and infantry tight together on main roads surrounded by woodland”…. The best German joke since, well, ever.
I don't know whether training is the issue - I think it is simply that the Germans haven't bought any new kit for twenty years and none of their tanks even work.
Thanks v much for the link.
I have occasionally posted this from a few years back:
Sadly serious divisions becoming apparent in the EU
I don’t think it’s sudden news that Orban is a problem.
No, but it was perhaps hoped that a Russian invasion might provoke a sea change in attitudes across the continent. And end to complacency, and cosying up. It does not seem so.
I think that analysis is rather premature, even if it is the instinctive view of armchair generals in Britain to sniff out continental treachery.
I'd give that more credence without the 'armchair general' crack which still makes no sense to me. Anyone commenting who is not there on the ground is an armchair general. And my point wasn't about continental treachery, is was about everyone, us included, not necessarily making as long term singificant a change re Russia as we might currently think we are.
I'll have you know I'm an armchair lance corporal. I know my place.
I'm an armchair orderly on latrine duty!
So an Armchair Commode-or?
Yes, well, the stuff he has to shovel from folk on here at times.
Still, at at least a lot of folk whiten their own sepulchres.
Like the gannet shite on Ailsa Craig/Bass Rock (take your pick)?
In my youth we used to climb gulls rock at St Abbs and the gannets aggression and vomit is something I have never forgotten
'It is possible to maintain that umbilical link between the monarchy and the Commonwealth. But few would argue against a need for the monarch and their advisers to establish a modern and delicate balancing act – to maintain the Commonwealth as a club of equals, rather than giving the impression of a top-down set of former colonies. '
Sensible conclusion from Mount. Most Commonwealth nations already no longer have the Queen as Head of State. It should still be an organisation promoting trade and sporting and development links and democracy. However the Commonwealth realms are likely to soon just be the UK and the other white, British origin majority Commonwealth nations ie Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The Commonwealth is really represented by a Secretary General, currently Baroness Scotland, previously Kamalesh Sharma and the head does not even need to be the British monarch. Although Charles has got the role after the Queen he should treat it much as the Archbishop of Canterbury treats his role as head of the Anglican Communion. A first amongst equals, not a top down head like the Pope
Thanks for the conclusion from Mount.
[this actually refers to my other posting, re the DT article on the Commonwealth, not vomiting procellariids]
Bad for Melenchon, as he does best amongst that group, good for Zemmour and Pecresse who do worst amongst the young, not much effect either way for Le Pen and Macron
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Does it? looks to me as it would be much easer to take water from directly to the north, or the lake to the north East of Crimea. but I am not an expert so maybe.
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Perhaps: but one aim that has been posited is that Russia want to stop Ukraine having access to the sea. That would mean eventually taking the coast as far as Odessa. If they manage to get most of their troops out of the quagmire in the north, that might be achievable.
If.
I have mentioned a few times, that they were never going to take Odesa, perhaps if everything was going well in the first couple of days them maybe at a push. but after that, its been well beyond Russian ability.
"Russian ability" as it is seen today, is rather different to "Russian ability" as it was seen a month ago ...
If Russia had had a military trained and equipped for this mission, they could have done it. But they had split a small military budget amongst a massive requirement, and I reckon this has left them incapable of doing much. A Jack of all trades, master of none.
As a start, they should retire their carrier. Carriers are a means of projecting power. They have no reason to project power.
Dearie me, BBC News have misplaced their customary fawning tone on the Rasta Royals & their Carribean jaunt: 'overtones of privilege and separation' in Jamaica. Still, things back on track for their Duke of Windsor commemorative visit to the Bahamas, the joy was inescapable apparently.
Telegraph (H. Mount) asking if the Commonwealth can be saved. But ££ so I never found out if they want to go all Fortress White Anglos like some 19th century racial-geographical strategist, or some on here
One must distinguish between the Commonwealth realms, and the broader Commonwealth.
The realms, I think, are doomed to go. You might think it weird, but I actually think the Meghan debacle has dealt the death blow. Harry and Meghan had a modern, post-racial glamour which made the monarchy relevant. William and Kate do not. It’s probably too late, but if I were William I’d expend every effort to woo the two trouble-makers back somehow.
The broader Commonwealth should be repurposed. There is a gap for an organisation which promotes cosmopolitan liberal democracy around the world via educational and cultural exchange.
The Commonwealth already does this, but seems confused over its precise objectives. It could do with much better leadership, a much tighter focus, and significantly increased funding. Repositioned well, it could be a vehicle for enhanced Anglo-Indian collaboration and soft power.
Sadly, the sanctions, most of them anyway will be lifted very quickly, Germany and others need Russian gas, and other commodity's in significant quantity's to stop price rises and reception, France and a few others don't what sanctions to get it the way of there business, and will largely ignore or work around them, and fairly quickly other companies and contrary's will be saying why are we missing out on business. Some sanctions e.g. on top grade computer chips might remain but china and black market middle men will get enough to Russia. some of the big Yauts might stay frozen as symbols that we are still sanctioning but not much more than that.
Germany and others will spend a touch more on military this year and maybe next, but the 100 million will be delayed and then forgotten, not that it would have done much anyway, Germany has now after 3 weeks run out of kit they can send to Ukraine, apparently, because they have very lintel usable spare kit.
Ukraine will largely feel abandoned by the west, sad that after being so brave they still had to concede so much to Russia, traumatised by the fighting and all the death. and still have shattered infastucher,
Russia will still have been able to expand its territory in an unprovoked war, yes his men did not do well, but his people at home don't know/believe that, to them he looks like a hero. his army will learn lessons, and be able to make better weapons have better combat based tuning. and will be stronger next time. He has lost a lot of men, but Putin does not care, most of the equipment he has lost was old or not very good. Putin now has stronger control of Russia than he has ever had, with his control over the media, 15,000 of his opponents in prison, and many 100,000s more who have self exiled.
And today he has still proved Putin can still stock internal division in the West by mentioning JK Rolling. and he still has a big bargaining chip in the form of the 402,000 civilians he has deported form Mariupol and other places.
I hope I am wrong, and we still don't know, But I think Putin/authoritarian strongmen have won, and the west/freedom/democracy has lost. outside Europe North America, NZ, Australia South Korea and Japan. support has been thin on the ground for Ukraine, yes most nations voted one way in the UN, but not all and many abstained, others only did so with prodding and because they know it amounted to nothing. there does not seem even a willingness to explode Russia from the next G20 meeting.
all very sad, we as in the west had a window of opportunity to arm Ukraine to the max in the first week, MiG 29s, from Poland, S-300 from Slovakia, anti ship missiles for Odesa, or maybe land lunched torpedo's. and we could have sent enough uniforms, guns mortars, and so on for a 2 million army.
I think German rearming happens whatever - simply because of how embarrassed Germany has been by the preparedness of its forces. There's a piece in the NYTimes looking at their regiment in Lithuania, and how poorly equipped it is compared to British/Polish/Lithuanian forces.
I don't disagree with your other points: I think that much of Continental Europe would be happy with Putin to return to the pre-Feb 22 borders, and the oil and gas to start flowing again.
A better outcome for everyone - including the Russians themselves - is regime change. A new leader would (I'm sure) be very happy to walk back Putin's mistakes, because it is in Russia's interests.
If the West hangs together, and is willing to continue to back Ukraine, then I think we can achieve this. And Putin may well conspire to help us: simply he'll be desperate to show some gain (i.e. Mauripol and the coast), and I don't think that'll be sufficient.
I think a big chunk of Germany’s budget is going to have to be spent on training their trainers. Considering their best company trained the Russians it doesn’t look like there is any point in buying kit if they don’t know what to do with it when they have it.
Unless it was a giant trolling effort by the Germans - “yes Russian soldiers, best plan is to group tanks and infantry tight together on main roads surrounded by woodland”…. The best German joke since, well, ever.
I don't know whether training is the issue - I think it is simply that the Germans haven't bought any new kit for twenty years and none of their tanks even work.
There is a part of me that still thinks that having a Germany with no real army is not a bad thing...
Moi aussi.
It kind of suits the UK to be one of only three serious players in Europe this side of the Carpathians.
UK, France and...
and...
err...
and...
Finland ...... Obviously.
Wouldn't that be (just) the other side of the Carpathians?
The Virginia Thomas stuff is just wild. Its always been known that Clarence Thomas has failed to recuse himself on multiple cases where his wife has been working for one of the litigants but the whole set of texts released is wild given that Clarence Thomas was part of a ruling preventing further messages being handed over to investigators.
The Virginia Thomas stuff is just wild. Its always been known that Clarence Thomas has failed to recuse himself on multiple cases where his wife has been working for one of the litigants but the whole set of texts released is wild given that Clarence Thomas was part of a ruling preventing further messages being handed over to investigators.
Is this why he had been sick? Can you impeach a Supreme Court justice?
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Does it? looks to me as it would be much easer to take water from directly to the north, or the lake to the north East of Crimea. but I am not an expert so maybe.
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Perhaps: but one aim that has been posited is that Russia want to stop Ukraine having access to the sea. That would mean eventually taking the coast as far as Odessa. If they manage to get most of their troops out of the quagmire in the north, that might be achievable.
If.
I have mentioned a few times, that they were never going to take Odesa, perhaps if everything was going well in the first couple of days them maybe at a push. but after that, its been well beyond Russian ability.
I had assumed that Ukraine was doomed when I heard about the invasion. Even after about a week I thought that they were just bravely delaying the inevitable.
I've never been more pleased to be wrong.
The early days and first 3 weeks I was quite hopeful for Ukraine, all be it in the first few days not confidant to make public predictions on this forum, sadly I am now a lot less positive for the outcome, both in Ukraine, and the wider implications of that.
Sadly, the sanctions, most of them anyway will be lifted very quickly, Germany and others need Russian gas, and other commodity's in significant quantity's to stop price rises and reception, France and a few others don't what sanctions to get it the way of there business, and will largely ignore or work around them, and fairly quickly other companies and contrary's will be saying why are we missing out on business. Some sanctions e.g. on top grade computer chips might remain but china and black market middle men will get enough to Russia. some of the big Yauts might stay frozen as symbols that we are still sanctioning but not much more than that.
Germany and others will spend a touch more on military this year and maybe next, but the 100 million will be delayed and then forgotten, not that it would have done much anyway, Germany has now after 3 weeks run out of kit they can send to Ukraine, apparently, because they have very lintel usable spare kit.
Ukraine will largely feel abandoned by the west, sad that after being so brave they still had to concede so much to Russia, traumatised by the fighting and all the death. and still have shattered infastucher,
Russia will still have been able to expand its territory in an unprovoked war, yes his men did not do well, but his people at home don't know/believe that, to them he looks like a hero. his army will learn lessons, and be able to make better weapons have better combat based tuning. and will be stronger next time. He has lost a lot of men, but Putin does not care, most of the equipment he has lost was old or not very good. Putin now has stronger control of Russia than he has ever had, with his control over the media, 15,000 of his opponents in prison, and many 100,000s more who have self exiled.
And today he has still proved Putin can still stock internal division in the West by mentioning JK Rolling. and he still has a big bargaining chip in the form of the 402,000 civilians he has deported form Mariupol and other places.
I hope I am wrong, and we still don't know, But I think Putin/authoritarian strongmen have won, and the west/freedom/democracy has lost. outside Europe North America, NZ, Australia South Korea and Japan. support has been thin on the ground for Ukraine, yes most nations voted one way in the UN, but not all and many abstained, others only did so with prodding and because they know it amounted to nothing. there does not seem even a willingness to explode Russia from the next G20 meeting.
all very sad, we as in the west had a window of opportunity to arm Ukraine to the max in the first week, MiG 29s, from Poland, S-300 from Slovakia, anti ship missiles for Odesa, or maybe land lunched torpedo's. and we could have sent enough uniforms, guns mortars, and so on for a 2 million army.
I think German rearming happens whatever - simply because of how embarrassed Germany has been by the preparedness of its forces. There's a piece in the NYTimes looking at their regiment in Lithuania, and how poorly equipped it is compared to British/Polish/Lithuanian forces.
I don't disagree with your other points: I think that much of Continental Europe would be happy with Putin to return to the pre-Feb 22 borders, and the oil and gas to start flowing again.
A better outcome for everyone - including the Russians themselves - is regime change. A new leader would (I'm sure) be very happy to walk back Putin's mistakes, because it is in Russia's interests.
If the West hangs together, and is willing to continue to back Ukraine, then I think we can achieve this. And Putin may well conspire to help us: simply he'll be desperate to show some gain (i.e. Mauripol and the coast), and I don't think that'll be sufficient.
I think a big chunk of Germany’s budget is going to have to be spent on training their trainers. Considering their best company trained the Russians it doesn’t look like there is any point in buying kit if they don’t know what to do with it when they have it.
Unless it was a giant trolling effort by the Germans - “yes Russian soldiers, best plan is to group tanks and infantry tight together on main roads surrounded by woodland”…. The best German joke since, well, ever.
I don't know whether training is the issue - I think it is simply that the Germans haven't bought any new kit for twenty years and none of their tanks even work.
There is a part of me that still thinks that having a Germany with no real army is not a bad thing...
Moi aussi.
It kind of suits the UK to be one of only three serious players in Europe this side of the Carpathians.
The Virginia Thomas stuff is just wild. Its always been known that Clarence Thomas has failed to recuse himself on multiple cases where his wife has been working for one of the litigants but the whole set of texts released is wild given that Clarence Thomas was part of a ruling preventing further messages being handed over to investigators.
Is this why he had been sick? Can you impeach a Supreme Court justice?
You can indeed impeach a Justice but there is zero chance he will be. Same threshold as convicting a president
Re Reading. New boundaries mean no more East (swing seat) and West (Tory but trending marginal). With each being just about winnable for either on a very good night. There'll just be a Reading. Effectively Central. And solidly Labour. The outlying wards go into the surrounding Tory constituencies. It's no longer really competitive at all. Sadly.
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Does it? looks to me as it would be much easer to take water from directly to the north, or the lake to the north East of Crimea. but I am not an expert so maybe.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
This does explain why the Russians always had so many X. When your kit is total shit you need a hell of a lot of it to make up for all the failures.
The Virginia Thomas stuff is just wild. Its always been known that Clarence Thomas has failed to recuse himself on multiple cases where his wife has been working for one of the litigants but the whole set of texts released is wild given that Clarence Thomas was part of a ruling preventing further messages being handed over to investigators.
Is this why he had been sick? Can you impeach a Supreme Court justice?
Successfully ? Only if you control two thirds of the votes in the Senate.
Ideal for a man of a certain age. Get the matching slippers.
You can get puffer down slippers???
I know you jest, but I do think the puffer gilet is a game changer, in so many different ways
It is oddly satisfying to put your hands in the pockets, I’m not sure why
Why? Age, my dear fellow, age, that's why.
And yet they also work well in combo with a youthful hoodie. The gilet goes over the hoodie, but without ‘interfering’ with the hoodie, which you can still use to hood yourself up, in inclement conditions
And I’ve noticed a lot of the younger folk in Camden adopting this combo, so even though I pioneered it, as in so much else, it’s not now - if it ever was - restricted to distinguished older types, like me
Ideal for a man of a certain age. Get the matching slippers.
You can get puffer down slippers???
I know you jest, but I do think the puffer gilet is a game changer, in so many different ways
It is oddly satisfying to put your hands in the pockets, I’m not sure why
Why? Age, my dear fellow, age, that's why.
And yet they also work well in combo with a youthful hoodie. The gilet goes over the hoodie, but without ‘interfering’ with the hoodie, which you can still use to hood yourself up, in inclement conditions
And I’ve noticed a lot of the younger folk in Camden adopting this combo, so even though I pioneered it, as in so much else, it’s not now - if it ever was - restricted to distinguished older types, like me
What has happened is your are now so old that you think Dominic Cummings is “younger folk”.
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Does it? looks to me as it would be much easer to take water from directly to the north, or the lake to the north East of Crimea. but I am not an expert so maybe.
It looks on that map as if the closed part of the canal is about 50-60 miles east of Kherson to me. So its close but the city itself is not critical.
I think it's one of these situations where if you control the city, you can control the region. The water supply will not be 'secure' unless you control Kherson.
Knives last night, Tommy Hilfiger gillets tonight.....only 2 days away from Leon promoting Manscaped products....
Well, we did spend some of this afternoon discussing odd concrete erections in Yorkshire fields. Sadly, Leon missed that, as his contribution would have been decisive.
Or is concrete too manufactured and false compared to flint?
On topic, the biggest surprise has been the complete failure of Valerie Pecresse and the LR to make any impression. With Zemmour and Le Pen in the race, there was a real possibility of a moderate centre-right candidate to come through but instead she is polling at only just over half of what Francois Fillon got last time.
The core of the LR vote is among the elderly - last time Fillon beat Macron 45-27 among those aged 70+ and 27-26 among those aged 60-69. The latest poll this time among those aged 65+ has Macron on 31 with Pecresse on 19. She has lost a lot of the traditional LR support in the elderly vote and this is why she finish fourth at best.
Melenchon is now a clear third but has a lot to do to overhaul Marine Le Pen whose vote is slowly increasing back toward 20% while Melenchon struggles to clear 15%.
Actually in the case of Leon, it won't be the garbage Manscaped sell, it will be a hand built trimmer for your ball sack made by some hippy on Bodmin Moor who repurposes actual weed whackers.....at £500 a pop.
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
On topic, the biggest surprise has been the complete failure of Valerie Pecresse and the LR to make any impression. With Zemmour and Le Pen in the race, there was a real possibility of a moderate centre-right candidate to come through but instead she is polling at only just over half of what Francois Fillon got last time.
The core of the LR vote is among the elderly - last time Fillon beat Macron 45-27 among those aged 70+ and 27-26 among those aged 60-69. The latest poll this time among those aged 65+ has Macron on 31 with Pecresse on 19. She has lost a lot of the traditional LR support in the elderly vote and this is why she finish fourth at best.
Melenchon is now a clear third but has a lot to do to overhaul Marine Le Pen whose vote is slowly increasing back toward 20% while Melenchon struggles to clear 15%.
Yes, I thought that to, with the extremist vote split 3 ways, there should have been space for a Centre right candidate, but so far she doesn't seem capable of filling that role.
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Does it? looks to me as it would be much easer to take water from directly to the north, or the lake to the north East of Crimea. but I am not an expert so maybe.
It looks on that map as if the closed part of the canal is about 50-60 miles east of Kherson to me. So its close but the city itself is not critical.
I think it's one of these situations where if you control the city, you can control the region. The water supply will not be 'secure' unless you control Kherson.
Russia knows that the west, and by this I include the Rump Ukrainians state would never do anything to provoke a Russia that we rightly fear, including stepping one foot over a boarder.
I didn't realise that the Russian General Ukraine claimed to have killed today was said to have been killed on the edge of Kherson. Can Ukraine retake the city?
U.S Defense Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun to Lose Control of the Southern Ukrainian City of Kherson after Ukrainian Offensives began yesterday, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military Forces are Claimed to be advancing on the City from Multiple Directions.
Well, fog of war and all that. But AFAICT, Ukrainians having Kherson would somewhat kybosh any Russian attempt to control the south coast.
Oh Dear. How Sad. Never Mind.
No its would not affect that, the land bridge would be form the Crimea east to Russia, Kherson it to the west of Crimea. so its territory's Russia is probably prepared to give up anyway.
Though Kherson does control the water supply to Crimea, so is a key part of the Russian objectives.
Does it? looks to me as it would be much easer to take water from directly to the north, or the lake to the north East of Crimea. but I am not an expert so maybe.
Sea of Azov (to the north east) is brackish and undrinkable
The river starts north and bears to the west - feeds the grand canal that provides water to Crimea
Ideal for a man of a certain age. Get the matching slippers.
You can get puffer down slippers???
I know you jest, but I do think the puffer gilet is a game changer, in so many different ways
It is oddly satisfying to put your hands in the pockets, I’m not sure why
Why? Age, my dear fellow, age, that's why.
And yet they also work well in combo with a youthful hoodie. The gilet goes over the hoodie, but without ‘interfering’ with the hoodie, which you can still use to hood yourself up, in inclement conditions
And I’ve noticed a lot of the younger folk in Camden adopting this combo, so even though I pioneered it, as in so much else, it’s not now - if it ever was - restricted to distinguished older types, like me
If anyone starts on quilted willy warmers, I'm going the full tonto on you all.....
And yet they also work well in combo with a youthful hoodie. The gilet goes over the hoodie, but without ‘interfering’ with the hoodie, which you can still use to hood yourself up, in inclement conditions
A garment that keeps you warm and protects your head.
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
And yet they also work well in combo with a youthful hoodie. The gilet goes over the hoodie, but without ‘interfering’ with the hoodie, which you can still use to hood yourself up, in inclement conditions
A garment that keeps you warm and protects your head.
That's an anorak
If it wraps around your head, it's a snorkel parka....
Two elections this weekend - Malta votes tomorrow. The incumbent Labour Party Government looks set to be re-elected. One poll has a 56-43 lead over the Nationalists while a Malta Today has a 53.5-44.5 lead so maybe a seat or two gain for the opposition but that's all.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
Interesting fact - puffer gilets were invented in 1955 by a man called Marty McFly when he decided to wear a life-jacket out to his local diner.
This was covered in a documentary made in 1985 which looked at the change in American society.
If you want to be awed watch the doc on Netflix called “Back to the Future”. It covers Libyan terrorism, electric cars and the potential for black elected officials. Groundbreaking stuff.
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
Putin is playing chess with 100,000 of people lives:
Putin really just wants Mariupol and ideally with the people gone, dead or otherwise, and realising that it was taking a long time to capture and cost of his own men than he has.
Therefore in order to maximise disharmony in the west he has let his 'golden boy' Macron know that he can organise an evacuation.
Macron now looks like the clever statesman, rewarded to 'keeping the dialog going' and his businesses in Russia for longer than elsewhere.
That's not to say its not good that this will/may save lots of lives which is a good thing, but we should not kid ourselves that this is not part of Putin's planning.
I mean how do we REALLY know that the 100+ dead children aren't cRiSiS aCtOrS
Were those 4 Russian helicopters being shot down on here this morning really from a computer game?
It had a sort of Ukraine government video message stamped on it I thought odd, why would it gratuitously need that? It was created by Russians wasn’t it? So it was a propaganda to try to undermine honest Ukraine message, which mainly feed onto our news as true facts, Ukraine message discredited by Russians with fake message using computer game footage?
It’s got to be going on. I have suspected this all along. fake Russian pretend Ukraine propaganda, to undermine Ukraine giving us the facts. It doesn’t surprise me, firstly, as you would think the Russians would pay dirty truck loads of money to people to do that, whilst the real Ukraines are up their eyebrows in war zone, and a few times when bad news story’s of Russian aggression have come out, the Ukraine government have clarified it to excuse the Russians, so come across as honest to me.
One example was the cars of women and children destroyed on the safe route out of maripole, it did happen, but the Ukraine government said they were actually not on the agreed safe route when butchered by Russians, the other example is when Russia claimed chemical weapon factories, the US said there are no factories, the Ukraine government said yes there are chemicals factories US built with us, but definitely not making weapons. Do you agree with me sometimes the Ukraine government playing it too honest, maybe thinking it’s important for us to trust them?
so it’s fake Russian pretend Ukraine propaganda that could be causing your argument with LuckyMan? It’s obvious now PB are discussing these things to decide what’s true and not. We also need to appreciate, despite &kraine Government Official stamped on it, it’s come from GRU.
It’s hard for lamestream news to back track, so they put this “not yet verified by us message” out a lot now hoping to protect their integrity.
will you agree to meet LuckyMan in the middle and shake hands, as what is news and what is not is a bit hard? 💁♀️
The other advantage of a puffer gilet is that you can keep it on in bars and restaurants, without looking like a madman still wearing his rain jacket or winter coat. And the sleevelessness means full arm mobility for eating and drinking. So there’s none of that ‘where do I hang my coat’ or ‘I left my wallet in my coat’ stuff.
Two elections this weekend - Malta votes tomorrow. The incumbent Labour Party Government looks set to be re-elected. One poll has a 56-43 lead over the Nationalists while a Malta Today has a 53.5-44.5 lead so maybe a seat or two gain for the opposition but that's all.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
I can even see SPD getting a majority in Saarland and they will also get their best result since 1999. They only need ~42% and for the FDP and Greens to narrowly both drop out as well as die Linke. Oskar Lafontaine only left the party a week ago and the scale of die Linke's collapse is incredible.
Die Linke is really circling the drain in West Germany now with Bremen, Hamburg and Hessen their only remaining state representation.
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
Putin is playing chess with 100,000 of people lives:
Putin really just wants Mariupol and ideally with the people gone, dead or otherwise, and realising that it was taking a long time to capture and cost of his own men than he has.
Therefore in order to maximise disharmony in the west he has let his 'golden boy' Macron know that he can organise an evacuation.
Macron now looks like the clever statesman, rewarded to 'keeping the dialog going' and his businesses in Russia for longer than elsewhere.
That's not to say its not good that this will/may save lots of lives which is a good thing, but we should not kid ourselves that this is not part of Putin's planning.
Totally agree. Putin wants his vehicles with sov flags and zee on patrolling around empty cities and towns, he don’t want anyone there except his people who move there.
It’s the very opposite of what he said it’s all about!
The other advantage of a puffer gilet is that you can keep it on in bars and restaurants, without looking like a madman still wearing his rain jacket or winter coat. And the sleevelessness means full arm mobility for eating and drinking. So there’s none of that ‘where do I hang my coat’ or ‘I left my wallet in my coat’ stuff.
And yet you remain stylish AND warm.
The Modern Down Tabard. A work of genius
Guy at work wears a gilet, as you describe.
"Gilet wanker"
I confess to owning the slippers (useless, because you can't wear them outside the tent on the sodden grass).
I can even see SPD getting a majority in Saarland and they will also their best result since 1999. They only need ~42% and for the FDP and Greens to narrowly both drop out as well as die Linke. Oskar Lafontaine only left the party a week ago and the scale of die Linke's collapse is incredible.
Die Linke is really circling the drain in West Germany now with Bremen, Hamburg and Hessen their only remaining state representation.
FDP is right on the edge and I think Linke will drop out but otoh the Greens should get into the Landtag and AfD are about where they were last time. I struggle to see an absolute majority for the SPD - 25 seats perhaps.
Two elections this weekend - Malta votes tomorrow. The incumbent Labour Party Government looks set to be re-elected. One poll has a 56-43 lead over the Nationalists while a Malta Today has a 53.5-44.5 lead so maybe a seat or two gain for the opposition but that's all.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
You are brilliant at this stuff Stodge. Even if I may not bet on it, it is still very interesting. 👍🏻
You were very quite during Cheltenham, bust with work? How did your bets go?
Just a note on the Australian Federal election which is less than two months away.
Two contrasting polls - Essential Report has the Lib/Nat Coalition and Labor (ALP) tied on 37 but ALP ahead 48-44 on the preference vote so a 5% swing from last time. Roy Morgan however has ALP six and a half points ahead (37.5-31) on first vote and a whopping 58-42 ahead on the preference vote which would be a landslide defeat for Scott Morrison.
ACs we know, the state-by-state numbers are more significant and the Coalition continues to poll well in Queensland but is struggling in both South and Western Australia.
I mean how do we REALLY know that the 100+ dead children aren't cRiSiS aCtOrS
Were those 4 Russian helicopters being shot down on here this morning really from a computer game?
It had a sort of Ukraine government video message stamped on it I thought odd, why would it gratuitously need that? It was created by Russians wasn’t it? So it was a propaganda to try to undermine honest Ukraine message, which mainly feed onto our news as true facts, Ukraine message discredited by Russians with fake message using computer game footage?
It’s got to be going on. I have suspected this all along. fake Russian pretend Ukraine propaganda, to undermine Ukraine giving us the facts. It doesn’t surprise me, firstly, as you would think the Russians would pay dirty truck loads of money to people to do that, whilst the real Ukraines are up their eyebrows in war zone, and a few times when bad news story’s of Russian aggression have come out, the Ukraine government have clarified it to excuse the Russians, so come across as honest to me.
One example was the cars of women and children destroyed on the safe route out of maripole, it did happen, but the Ukraine government said they were actually not on the agreed safe route when butchered by Russians, the other example is when Russia claimed chemical weapon factories, the US said there are no factories, the Ukraine government said yes there are chemicals factories US built with us, but definitely not making weapons. Do you agree with me sometimes the Ukraine government playing it too honest, maybe thinking it’s important for us to trust them?
so it’s fake Russian pretend Ukraine propaganda that could be causing your argument with LuckyMan? It’s obvious now PB are discussing these things to decide what’s true and not. We also need to appreciate, despite &kraine Government Official stamped on it, it’s come from GRU.
It’s hard for lamestream news to back track, so they put this “not yet verified by us message” out a lot now hoping to protect their integrity.
will you agree to meet LuckyMan in the middle and shake hands, as what is news and what is not is a bit hard? 💁♀️
I appreciate your sentiments, but I really don't think that's the case. It's a war. The Russians are lying, and so are the Ukrainians. That's what you do in a war. The Russians seem mostly to be believed in Russia where there's a supine media, whilst in the Western media, the Ukrainians face little scrutiny.
The Russian Government deserves to be condemned both for its invasion, and for the brutally destructive nature of that invasion. But that shouldn't and mustn't mean that the pronouncements of the Ukrainian side aren't treated with caution. This is a situation that could have (and hopefully this possibility is growing less likely) lead to direct conflict with a huge nuclear power. I don't judge the Ukrainians for fighting a propaganda war, and doing it well, but I do judge those here who are so wrapped up in it that they angrily denounce anyone who goes off-message.
Two elections this weekend - Malta votes tomorrow. The incumbent Labour Party Government looks set to be re-elected. One poll has a 56-43 lead over the Nationalists while a Malta Today has a 53.5-44.5 lead so maybe a seat or two gain for the opposition but that's all.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
With a CDU drop like that I wouldn't be surprised to see it being FW. Difficult to see where else that vote has gone. Not to FDP or AfD that's for sure. FW have been doing well in a couple of Lander off the back of poor Union showings. Notably Bayern. Also. There's potentially a majority government there if 2 of the FDP or Greens or AfD or Linke don't make 5.
The other advantage of a puffer gilet is that you can keep it on in bars and restaurants, without looking like a madman still wearing his rain jacket or winter coat. And the sleevelessness means full arm mobility for eating and drinking. So there’s none of that ‘where do I hang my coat’ or ‘I left my wallet in my coat’ stuff.
And yet you remain stylish AND warm.
The Modern Down Tabard. A work of genius
Guy at work wears a gilet, as you describe.
"Gilet wanker"
I confess to owning the slippers (useless, because you can't wear them outside the tent on the sodden grass).
But they only weigh 100g (or something)!
A friend of mine carried some slippers 50 miles through the Grand Canyon as a luxury item.
Two elections this weekend - Malta votes tomorrow. The incumbent Labour Party Government looks set to be re-elected. One poll has a 56-43 lead over the Nationalists while a Malta Today has a 53.5-44.5 lead so maybe a seat or two gain for the opposition but that's all.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
With a CDU drop like that I wouldn't be surprised to see it being FW. Difficult to see where else that vote has gone. Not to FDP or AfD that's for sure. FW have been doing well in a couple of Lander off the back of poor Union showings. Notably Bayern. Also. There's potentially a majority government there if 2 of the FDP or Greens or AfD or Linke don't make 5.
I see Gary Burton made that point. Should be briefer.
"Russian ground forces near Kyiv have stopped trying to take Ukraine’s capital and have shifted to defensive positions while Russian warplanes have continued airstrikes into the city, a senior U.S. defense official said Friday. He added that Russian forces have now shifted much of their warfighting efforts in Ukraine to the Donbas region where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting a war since 2014.
“We think they’re trying to cut off the Donbas area,” the official said of the Russian forces in Ukraine,"
NY Times blog.
===
Dare we hope the glimmers of a settlement and a peace deal are coming?
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
Putin is playing chess with 100,000 of people lives:
Putin really just wants Mariupol and ideally with the people gone, dead or otherwise, and realising that it was taking a long time to capture and cost of his own men than he has.
Therefore in order to maximise disharmony in the west he has let his 'golden boy' Macron know that he can organise an evacuation.
Macron now looks like the clever statesman, rewarded to 'keeping the dialog going' and his businesses in Russia for longer than elsewhere.
That's not to say its not good that this will/may save lots of lives which is a good thing, but we should not kid ourselves that this is not part of Putin's planning.
Totally agree. Putin wants his vehicles with sov flags and zee on patrolling around empty cities and towns, he don’t want anyone there except his people who move there.
It’s the very opposite of what he said it’s all about!
You are brilliant at this stuff Stodge. Even if I may not bet on it, it is still very interesting. 👍🏻
You were very quite during Cheltenham, bust with work? How did your bets go?
You're very kind, my friend. Also right about the work - unfortunately, I couldn't take any time off during the week to watch the races live as I had to cover for a couple of colleagues who were off with covid.
In terms of bets, I played only on the Grade 1 races and made the princely sum of £1 profit - that's right, a measly squid but better than a loss. Reasonable opening day thanks to EDWARDSTONE, very good second day when I was able to delay my bets and appreciated the impact of the rain so backed ENERGUMENE and L'HOMME PRESSE. Day three saw nice each way returns from JANIDIL and THYNE HILL but the final day was a disaster. I stupidly swerved VAUBAN and backed GINTO and GALVIN so that wiped out my first three day profits (well, nearly).
Real racing tomorrow but the best card by miles is at Meydan. The Sheema Classic is a stellar race - how good is this YIBIR? The World Cup looks a match on paper - I think HOT ROD CHARLIE will upset LIFE IS GOOD who is unproven at the mile and a quarter. If he does get it, he wins and may well be the best there's been for a while.
Can't get too excited about Doncaster - it's a minefield as you have to take fitness and the ground on trust. Kempton looks a more attractive proposition - FELIX in the 2.05 and TOMMY DE VITO in the 3.55 catch my eye on first look.
Two elections this weekend - Malta votes tomorrow. The incumbent Labour Party Government looks set to be re-elected. One poll has a 56-43 lead over the Nationalists while a Malta Today has a 53.5-44.5 lead so maybe a seat or two gain for the opposition but that's all.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
With a CDU drop like that I wouldn't be surprised to see it being FW. Difficult to see where else that vote has gone. Not to FDP or AfD that's for sure. FW have been doing well in a couple of Lander off the back of poor Union showings. Notably Bayern.
Remember that the CDU candidate last time was Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer who was extremely popular in 2017 (as well as obviously being a big national figure in the CDU). She was so popular in that the CDU outperformed it's polls in 2017 and the SPD underperformed theirs. Saarland was also the SPD's strongest Bundesland in last year's federal election. So it's not that strange to see a load of votes 'go back' to the SPD.
This time the reverse is true and the leadership ratings are so crushing for the SPD candidate (57-30 in the Forschungsgruppe poll) that I can see massive enough gains for the SPD to even eek out a majority.
Just a note on the Australian Federal election which is less than two months away.
Two contrasting polls - Essential Report has the Lib/Nat Coalition and Labor (ALP) tied on 37 but ALP ahead 48-44 on the preference vote so a 5% swing from last time. Roy Morgan however has ALP six and a half points ahead (37.5-31) on first vote and a whopping 58-42 ahead on the preference vote which would be a landslide defeat for Scott Morrison.
ACs we know, the state-by-state numbers are more significant and the Coalition continues to poll well in Queensland but is struggling in both South and Western Australia.
Both Roy Morgan and Essential got their 2019 election forecast wrong but Essential was the more accurate of the 2.
Interestingly Essential still gives Morrison a 3% lead as preferred PM, close to what the 2PP lead would be for the Coalition if the Undecideds all went for the Coalition again.
It also has the Coalition ahead in NSW and almost tied in Victoria where Labor has a narrow lead in what is normally its strongest state outside ACT
The other advantage of a puffer gilet is that you can keep it on in bars and restaurants, without looking like a madman still wearing his rain jacket or winter coat. And the sleevelessness means full arm mobility for eating and drinking. So there’s none of that ‘where do I hang my coat’ or ‘I left my wallet in my coat’ stuff.
And yet you remain stylish AND warm.
The Modern Down Tabard. A work of genius
But then I might have to actually pay rather than let Mrs U do so.....
Away from Biden in Poland and Sunak's appalling budget:
"Covid isn't remotely over."
Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford · 2h Staff are in tears all the time. I'm in tears myself often, though I try to keep them far off the wards. We are trying so desperately, to do a good job of protecting & caring. But we are only human, and too few & too exhausted. Some staff are suicidal with the trauma.
You are brilliant at this stuff Stodge. Even if I may not bet on it, it is still very interesting. 👍🏻
You were very quite during Cheltenham, bust with work? How did your bets go?
You're very kind, my friend. Also right about the work - unfortunately, I couldn't take any time off during the week to watch the races live as I had to cover for a couple of colleagues who were off with covid.
In terms of bets, I played only on the Grade 1 races and made the princely sum of £1 profit - that's right, a measly squid but better than a loss. Reasonable opening day thanks to EDWARDSTONE, very good second day when I was able to delay my bets and appreciated the impact of the rain so backed ENERGUMENE and L'HOMME PRESSE. Day three saw nice each way returns from JANIDIL and THYNE HILL but the final day was a disaster. I stupidly swerved VAUBAN and backed GINTO and GALVIN so that wiped out my first three day profits (well, nearly).
Real racing tomorrow but the best card by miles is at Meydan. The Sheema Classic is a stellar race - how good is this YIBIR? The World Cup looks a match on paper - I think HOT ROD CHARLIE will upset LIFE IS GOOD who is unproven at the mile and a quarter. If he does get it, he wins and may well be the best there's been for a while.
Can't get too excited about Doncaster - it's a minefield as you have to take fitness and the ground on trust. Kempton looks a more attractive proposition - FELIX in the 2.05 and TOMMY DE VITO in the 3.55 catch my eye on first look.
So what you are calling “real racing” is it’s getting flatter? In case of UAE, real racing is flat on dust and sand? Are you better tipster at flat racing, do you prefer it? Ive always been crap at flat racing. I’ve never got much into following breeding and blood stock side of things. My preferred discipline is to bet on National Hunt. After due diligence I feel more in control and happier with my bet slip in winter months, but with flat racing I don’t think I can trust the form book quite the same, what form book there is. it is more fun having more information not less to work on? Maybe I can learn more about flat racing following it this summer.
Since my nan put on our bets and I watched it on telly with her when I was very small I have bet on National Hunt at least once a week every winter season. I always been attracted to 2000 Guineas and Champions Day and other high profile flat racing too, but I don’t bet or watch flat racing much in summer months, perhaps distracted by I go out and about more often instead. though I tend to visit courses a bit in summer, though only in ripped jeans not glad rags. When I was small my Dad took me to York in summer, my first ever race course and I was hooked on going there, so we went back to every Ebor Festival Saturday for years unless away on holiday.
I do place speedy horses on flat with eye catching finishing in my note book, for they may show up in hurdles or fences with a skill to finish well. I prefer fast finish in flat betting than front running or stamina. In jump racing I like to see my horse close to front and not in pack as I think I have picked it on stamina so front running it covers off not leaving attack too late, and reduces risk of nudges and bumps. Have you to seen your fancied horse take a nudge and disappear backwards after that?
Russia narrowing her aims feels like the first step to an off ramp from the war.
A land bridge to Crimea and much of the Donbas region would be a paultry win for a war intended to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a pro-Russian puppet. Especially given the size of losses and economic isolation that has come with it. Of course it'd be better if Russia gained nothing, but alas I think regime change in Moscow is the only way that happens.
A glimmer of hope, as I had previously assumed we were facing a long, protracted war.
Away from Biden in Poland and Sunak's appalling budget:
"Covid isn't remotely over."
Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford · 2h Staff are in tears all the time. I'm in tears myself often, though I try to keep them far off the wards. We are trying so desperately, to do a good job of protecting & caring. But we are only human, and too few & too exhausted. Some staff are suicidal with the trauma.
Away from Biden in Poland and Sunak's appalling budget:
"Covid isn't remotely over."
Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford · 2h Staff are in tears all the time. I'm in tears myself often, though I try to keep them far off the wards. We are trying so desperately, to do a good job of protecting & caring. But we are only human, and too few & too exhausted. Some staff are suicidal with the trauma.
“We cannot independently verify this message” It’s rubbish when they say that on the news. They give it to us as news, and then say if you believe it or not is up to you.
What?
There’s facts we do know. When you see drone footage of cities levelled, a great many people have been murdered and crime of the century been committed. So why is our news now covering naff naff and trivia instead, like the Sun putting football on the front page, and Sky droning on about a ferry pay dispute every time I flick it on?
Comments
Netherlands? Poland? Is Poland this side of the Carpathians?
Please think of a better retort.
Sensible conclusion from Mount. Most Commonwealth nations already no longer have the Queen as Head of State. It should still be an organisation promoting trade and sporting and development links and democracy. However the Commonwealth realms are likely to soon just be the UK and the other white, British origin majority Commonwealth nations ie Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The Commonwealth is really represented by a Secretary General, currently Baroness Scotland, previously Kamalesh Sharma and the head does not even need to be the British monarch. Although Charles has got the role after the Queen he should treat it much as the Archbishop of Canterbury treats his role as head of the Anglican Communion. A first amongst equals, not a top down head like the Pope
search-results/fulmar/682843.
I've never been more pleased to be wrong.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/germany-does-not-have-one-working-submarine-23688
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/das-boot-ist-kaputt-german-navy-has-zero-working-subs/
[this actually refers to my other posting, re the DT article on the Commonwealth, not vomiting procellariids]
Stylish, practical AND comforting, indoors or out
One is heavy, while the other is a little lighter.
If Russia had had a military trained and equipped for this mission, they could have done it. But they had split a small military budget amongst a massive requirement, and I reckon this has left them incapable of doing much. A Jack of all trades, master of none.
As a start, they should retire their carrier. Carriers are a means of projecting power. They have no reason to project power.
The realms, I think, are doomed to go.
You might think it weird, but I actually think the Meghan debacle has dealt the death blow. Harry and Meghan had a modern, post-racial glamour which made the monarchy relevant. William and Kate do not. It’s probably too late, but if I were William I’d expend every effort to woo the two trouble-makers back somehow.
The broader Commonwealth should be repurposed. There is a gap for an organisation which promotes cosmopolitan liberal democracy around the world via educational and cultural exchange.
The Commonwealth already does this, but seems confused over its precise objectives. It could do with much better leadership, a much tighter focus, and significantly increased funding. Repositioned well, it could be a vehicle for enhanced Anglo-Indian collaboration and soft power.
“ You never know how good a pitch is until both 10 and 11s have batted on it.”
Can you impeach a Supreme Court justice?
I know you jest, but I do think the puffer gilet is a game changer, in so many different ways
It is oddly satisfying to put your hands in the pockets, I’m not sure why
New boundaries mean no more East (swing seat) and West (Tory but trending marginal). With each being just about winnable for either on a very good night.
There'll just be a Reading. Effectively Central. And solidly Labour. The outlying wards go into the surrounding Tory constituencies.
It's no longer really competitive at all. Sadly.
The news is insular and grotesquely tedious.
More power to the Guardian’s elbow (I have my issues with them - big issues - but they have a better news sense).
Only if you control two thirds of the votes in the Senate.
And I’ve noticed a lot of the younger folk in Camden adopting this combo, so even though I pioneered it, as in so much else, it’s not now - if it ever was - restricted to distinguished older types, like me
Or is concrete too manufactured and false compared to flint?
Although “The Quilted Bodywarmer Paradox” has limited shelf appeal, if you ask me.
On topic, the biggest surprise has been the complete failure of Valerie Pecresse and the LR to make any impression. With Zemmour and Le Pen in the race, there was a real possibility of a moderate centre-right candidate to come through but instead she is polling at only just over half of what Francois Fillon got last time.
The core of the LR vote is among the elderly - last time Fillon beat Macron 45-27 among those aged 70+ and 27-26 among those aged 60-69. The latest poll this time among those aged 65+ has Macron on 31 with Pecresse on 19. She has lost a lot of the traditional LR support in the elderly vote and this is why she finish fourth at best.
Melenchon is now a clear third but has a lot to do to overhaul Marine Le Pen whose vote is slowly increasing back toward 20% while Melenchon struggles to clear 15%.
"Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours"."
https://twitter.com/morcos_pierre/status/1507443257638273031
The river starts north and bears to the west - feeds the grand canal that provides water to Crimea
That's an anorak
The Tommy Tabard does have a ring, however
https://www.surfdome.com/Rab-Cirrus-Hut-Slippers/sd50231613.htm
Essential wear in a mountain refuge when ski touring or mountaineering.
On Sunday, we have the Saarland Regional Election. The latest Forschungsgruppe poll for ZDF as follows:
Changes from last state election:
SPD: 41% (+11.4)
CDU: 28% (-12.7)
Alternative for Germany: 6.5% (+0.3)
Greens: 5.5% (+1.5)
FDP: 5% (+1.7)
Linke: 4% (-8.8)
Others: 10% (+7.0)
It will be fascinating to see who these "Others" are - apart from the above, there are 12 other parties on the ballot including the Family Party, Pirate Party and the Free Voters. Whether any of them gets near 5% is debatable.
It's a big swing away from the CDU - currently they have 24 seats in the Landtag with the SPD on 17, Linke on 7 and Alternative (AfD) on 3. If the above figures are correct, the SPD should win 24 seats with the CDU on 17 , AfD on 4 and both the Greens and FDP on 3.That would be enough for the SPD to form a new coalition with either the Greens or the FDP (or perhaps both as at Federal level) leaving the CDU in opposition.
This was covered in a documentary made in 1985 which looked at the change in American society.
If you want to be awed watch the doc on Netflix called “Back to the Future”. It covers Libyan terrorism, electric cars and the potential for black elected officials. Groundbreaking stuff.
Putin really just wants Mariupol and ideally with the people gone, dead or otherwise, and realising that it was taking a long time to capture and cost of his own men than he has.
Therefore in order to maximise disharmony in the west he has let his 'golden boy' Macron know that he can organise an evacuation.
Macron now looks like the clever statesman, rewarded to 'keeping the dialog going' and his businesses in Russia for longer than elsewhere.
That's not to say its not good that this will/may save lots of lives which is a good thing, but we should not kid ourselves that this is not part of Putin's planning.
HAHAHAHAHA
Pause
*checks price*
It had a sort of Ukraine government video message stamped on it I thought odd, why would it gratuitously need that? It was created by Russians wasn’t it? So it was a propaganda to try to undermine honest Ukraine message, which mainly feed onto our news as true facts, Ukraine message discredited by Russians with fake message using computer game footage?
It’s got to be going on. I have suspected this all along. fake Russian pretend Ukraine propaganda, to undermine Ukraine giving us the facts. It doesn’t surprise me, firstly, as you would think the Russians would pay dirty truck loads of money to people to do that, whilst the real Ukraines are up their eyebrows in war zone, and a few times when bad news story’s of Russian aggression have come out, the Ukraine government have clarified it to excuse the Russians, so come across as honest to me.
One example was the cars of women and children destroyed on the safe route out of maripole, it did happen, but the Ukraine government said they were actually not on the agreed safe route when butchered by Russians, the other example is when Russia claimed chemical weapon factories, the US said there are no factories, the Ukraine government said yes there are chemicals factories US built with us, but definitely not making weapons. Do you agree with me sometimes the Ukraine government playing it too honest, maybe thinking it’s important for us to trust them?
so it’s fake Russian pretend Ukraine propaganda that could be causing your argument with LuckyMan? It’s obvious now PB are discussing these things to decide what’s true and not. We also need to appreciate, despite &kraine Government Official stamped on it, it’s come from GRU.
It’s hard for lamestream news to back track, so they put this “not yet verified by us message” out a lot now hoping to protect their integrity.
will you agree to meet LuckyMan in the middle and shake hands, as what is news and what is not is a bit hard? 💁♀️
And yet you remain stylish AND warm.
The Modern Down Tabard. A work of genius
Die Linke is really circling the drain in West Germany now with Bremen, Hamburg and Hessen their only remaining state representation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Brown_(servant)
Edit: you mean gilet not gillie!
It’s the very opposite of what he said it’s all about!
Nb. I pronounce it zee, do you?
"Gilet wanker"
I confess to owning the slippers (useless, because you can't wear them outside the tent on the sodden grass).
You were very quite during Cheltenham, bust with work? How did your bets go?
Two contrasting polls - Essential Report has the Lib/Nat Coalition and Labor (ALP) tied on 37 but ALP ahead 48-44 on the preference vote so a 5% swing from last time. Roy Morgan however has ALP six and a half points ahead (37.5-31) on first vote and a whopping 58-42 ahead on the preference vote which would be a landslide defeat for Scott Morrison.
ACs we know, the state-by-state numbers are more significant and the Coalition continues to poll well in Queensland but is struggling in both South and Western Australia.
The Russian Government deserves to be condemned both for its invasion, and for the brutally destructive nature of that invasion. But that shouldn't and mustn't mean that the pronouncements of the Ukrainian side aren't treated with caution. This is a situation that could have (and hopefully this possibility is growing less likely) lead to direct conflict with a huge nuclear power. I don't judge the Ukrainians for fighting a propaganda war, and doing it well, but I do judge those here who are so wrapped up in it that they angrily denounce anyone who goes off-message.
FW have been doing well in a couple of Lander off the back of poor Union showings. Notably Bayern.
Also. There's potentially a majority government there if 2 of the FDP or Greens or AfD or Linke don't make 5.
A friend of mine carried some slippers 50 miles through the Grand Canyon as a luxury item.
Me? I preferred 100g more food.
Should be briefer.
“We think they’re trying to cut off the Donbas area,” the official said of the Russian forces in Ukraine,"
NY Times blog.
===
Dare we hope the glimmers of a settlement and a peace deal are coming?
I think I could only probably name 3 US newspapers 🤭 Unless I just think of some place names, and guess their paper?
Oblong Argus
Last Chance Citizen
Briny Breezes Echo
Rainbow City Banner
Hooker Daily
Atomic City Dispatch
Hurt Eye
The Three Way Bugle
In terms of bets, I played only on the Grade 1 races and made the princely sum of £1 profit - that's right, a measly squid but better than a loss. Reasonable opening day thanks to EDWARDSTONE, very good second day when I was able to delay my bets and appreciated the impact of the rain so backed ENERGUMENE and L'HOMME PRESSE. Day three saw nice each way returns from JANIDIL and THYNE HILL but the final day was a disaster. I stupidly swerved VAUBAN and backed GINTO and GALVIN so that wiped out my first three day profits (well, nearly).
Real racing tomorrow but the best card by miles is at Meydan. The Sheema Classic is a stellar race - how good is this YIBIR? The World Cup looks a match on paper - I think HOT ROD CHARLIE will upset LIFE IS GOOD who is unproven at the mile and a quarter. If he does get it, he wins and may well be the best there's been for a while.
Can't get too excited about Doncaster - it's a minefield as you have to take fitness and the ground on trust. Kempton looks a more attractive proposition - FELIX in the 2.05 and TOMMY DE VITO in the 3.55 catch my eye on first look.
This time the reverse is true and the leadership ratings are so crushing for the SPD candidate (57-30 in the Forschungsgruppe poll) that I can see massive enough gains for the SPD to even eek out a majority.
Interestingly Essential still gives Morrison a 3% lead as preferred PM, close to what the 2PP lead would be for the Coalition if the Undecideds all went for the Coalition again.
It also has the Coalition ahead in NSW and almost tied in Victoria where Labor has a narrow lead in what is normally its strongest state outside ACT
"Covid isn't remotely over."
Rachel Clarke
@doctor_oxford
·
2h
Staff are in tears all the time. I'm in tears myself often, though I try to keep them far off the wards. We are trying so desperately, to do a good job of protecting & caring. But we are only human, and too few & too exhausted. Some staff are suicidal with the trauma.
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1507413189599936516
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
(Yes, I know, caveats apply, etc, etc...)
Since my nan put on our bets and I watched it on telly with her when I was very small I have bet on National Hunt at least once a week every winter season. I always been attracted to 2000 Guineas and Champions Day and other high profile flat racing too, but I don’t bet or watch flat racing much in summer months, perhaps distracted by I go out and about more often instead. though I tend to visit courses a bit in summer, though only in ripped jeans not glad rags. When I was small my Dad took me to York in summer, my first ever race course and I was hooked on going there, so we went back to every Ebor Festival Saturday for years unless away on holiday.
I do place speedy horses on flat with eye catching finishing in my note book, for they may show up in hurdles or fences with a skill to finish well. I prefer fast finish in flat betting than front running or stamina. In jump racing I like to see my horse close to front and not in pack as I think I have picked it on stamina so front running it covers off not leaving attack too late, and reduces risk of nudges and bumps. Have you to seen your fancied horse take a nudge and disappear backwards after that?
A land bridge to Crimea and much of the Donbas region would be a paultry win for a war intended to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a pro-Russian puppet. Especially given the size of losses and economic isolation that has come with it. Of course it'd be better if Russia gained nothing, but alas I think regime change in Moscow is the only way that happens.
A glimmer of hope, as I had previously assumed we were facing a long, protracted war.
“We cannot independently verify this message” It’s rubbish when they say that on the news. They give it to us as news, and then say if you believe it or not is up to you.
What?
There’s facts we do know. When you see drone footage of cities levelled, a great many people have been murdered and crime of the century been committed. So why is our news now covering naff naff and trivia instead, like the Sun putting football on the front page, and Sky droning on about a ferry pay dispute every time I flick it on?