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Latest Frech election polls with 16 days to go – politicalbetting.com
Latest Frech election polls with 16 days to go – politicalbetting.com
The thing to remember about French presidential elections is how important tactical voting can be in the first round. A total of 12 managed to get themselves onto the ballot for the first round of voting on April 10th and the big question is whether or not the hard right candidate ,Le Penn, could be squeezed off the second round.
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Oh, and first.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
If the odds were still 18/1 on Melanchon making it to the second round, I might be prepared to have a nibble. But at 8/1, I think I'd probably rather lay.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Hence Mariupol.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/56549597
If so as you say all well and good; sounds a smidge too good to be true, that said.
Edit: markets quite happy, but then they have been quite happy from Invasion +7 days.
He’s also damaged his economy and made it more fragile and reliant on China.
He’s given made the UK look like a serious player again, for the first time since about 2010.
Sadly Brexitism still seems to retain the support of around 45%. There’s a regular tracker on this.
Most of them think Brexit has gone badly, though.
Melenchon in 3rd and Zemmour and Pecresse near tied for 4th
Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 17% (+0.5)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5%
Zemmour (REC-NI): 12.5%
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 11% (+0.5)
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1507348706206625814?s=20&t=xyIWyI94Jx_U8FDklS4dfA
Macron (LREM-RE): 28% (-2)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 19% (+1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5% (+1.5)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% (-2)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 10.5% (+0.5)
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1507295548117864449?s=20&t=xyIWyI94Jx_U8FDklS4dfA
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.5114&rep=rep1&type=pdf
That's a bit unfair to Macron, he's since realised he was being played by Putin and he's done well at following Johnson's lead and standing up to Putin. Macron even turned around and followed Johnson's lead at standing up to Putin before Germany did - so the contrast between them isn't as stark against Macron as you're implying.
Oh, its Roger, you've probably got some other perverted meaning instead. Wibble, wibble, Hartlepool no doubt.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Only in heavily Macron supporting Paris did over half, 57%, have a negative view of Johnson
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-is-loved-by-the-french
I had a look at NLS maps, but all the large-scale maps are before the colliery was built
https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/side-by-side/#zoom=16&lat=53.70555&lon=-1.20928&layers=168&right=ESRIWorld
If you find out, please let us know!
I'm fairly sure they're some form of survey station for the colliery, which is where we all seem ot be converging. It'd be fascinating to know the details.
radar corner reflectors of a different design, but sufficiently similar in general characteristics to make you wonder....
Has he actually managed to get much through, other than closing down the inbred French finishing school for career politicians / civil servants? I don't follow things that closely, but it seemed even the very minor relaxation in some laws just led to widespread strikes, yellow jacket lot, and he appeared to back down. The fact he is again running on a ticket of reform pensions, labour laws, etc suggests he hasn't made much progress.
It’s relative, but he’s managed to push through quite a bit of deregulation. He’s reduced the tax burden on wealthy entrepreneurs for example.
French economic performance, which was dire, has moved up a notch to meh. (Masked by covid etc of course).
But what I don't understand is why it seems to be 'sitting' on a pole: I'd expect it to be firmly anchored into the ground. Unless... they could be turned?
That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.
A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.
The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
If Macron is re elected but faces a centre right majority in the National Assembly that would force him to push through economic reforms.
Linde has announced that its local Russian subsidiary would essentially close. This is massive news, because Russia's new LNG terminals rely on Linde kit (and they are pretty much a monopoly on some of the high end kit needed for gas separation at massive volumes). And it also casts doubt on the ability of existing LNG terminals to keep exporting. Simply, those terminals require regular maintenance.
Which brings us to the second piece of news. Japan has (very quietly) admitted that it will continue taking LNG gas from Sakhalin-2.
But he hasn't made as much progress as he might.
Truss is on -29%, Starmer is on -33%, Boris on -34% and Patel on -59%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/25/rishi-sunaks-favourability-drops-new-low-following
Disenchantment across the board
Starmer at -33 to Boris - 34 indicates neither are popular
HYUFD and BIG-G
I noticed this on the previous thread. According to the YouGov figures Starmer is -21
Johnson is -34
Is it me or are you and Big G dreaming what might have been......?
Melenchon is still doing OK with younger voters but not well enough and is extremely weak among elderly voters.
Do you think for a second Anderson will be able to help us regain the Ashes next time? Absolutely not, so it's time to thank him for his many years of excellence and move on.
Starmer at -33 to Boris - 34 indicates neither are popular
HYUFD and BIG-G
I noticed this on the previous thread. According to the YouGov figures Starmer is -21
Johnson is -34
Is it me or are you and Big G dreaming what might have been......?
Either way Wallace is still the most popular senior politician today, more popular in net terms than Boris, the rest of the Cabinet top tier and indeed Starmer too
The Ambassadors of China, India, Brazil and South Africa all happily posed for a photo with Lavrov today
https://twitter.com/MarkHiggie1/status/1507299241969868803?s=20&t=pJsFO3eoaKGsBZdIfj4I0w
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805
Both Crimea and Donbass directly border Russia and join their road systems. Kerch in eastern Crimea is dependent on a bridge, but it is a little distance from Ukrainian control and hasn't been threatened afaik. Still closing an attack route across the Sea of Azov and providing a second route - I can see good advantage in it, but it's doesn't quite seem vital. And maybe holding Mariupol, as the main Azov port, rather than having to maintain the whole bridge might be enough to remedy any Kerch issue?
And the land bridge gives little advantage to Donbass itself.
But we need to find and promote the guys who will lead the bowling for the next decade.
Supporters of Le Pen and Les Republicains and Melenchon all had a positive view of Johnson by contrast
https://www.ifop.com/publication/le-regard-des-francais-sur-boris-johnson/
However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
Daily Express "PM's Popularity surges to 5 month high"
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1584498/Boris-Johnson-latest-approval-rating-evg
Also, certainly betting wise, I don’t think Macron is home and hosed in second round, whoever comes second to him I will have a flutter on whilst odds are long. The anti macron candidate has a massive armoury to use this time. Last time Macron was bit of a blank canvass, in this election the majority of voters are against Macrons retirement plans and his tax plans and his love for EU.
And a further way I would question Mikes header, is Le Pen really viewed in France these days as “hard right” as her father and the party in his day? I’m not sure she gobbles up the moderate right voters so easily if true, surely she has done the hard work and shifted on the spectrum to be more inclusive to all right of centre conservatives, and anti EU voters and nationalist from everywhere on the spectrum? I would not be surprised to see second round tighten to at least put some doubt on Macron’s re-election.
Russia probably knows the people in the area are not going to go along with this plan, hence the total destruction of Mariupol and the death or deputation of as much of the population as possible, a day or 2 ago we heard of 64,000 Mariupol residents who had been bussed off to Russia. I think soon that will be the whole population that did not flee earlier or have been killed.
Also, lots of nice cost for Oligarchs beach fount villa now they can no longer go abroad
On the general point, agree. Can't see what Essex' Little Chef, as Sam Cook is known, has done wrong. Apart from playing for an unfashionable county with, until recently, a Chairman who spoke his mind.
Net favourability of senior politicians:
Rishi Sunak: -15
Keir Starmer: -21
Boris Johnson: -34
Priti Patel: -59
Ben Wallace: -9 (63% don't know)
I think a lot of Pecrasse collapse went to Macron, as much of Fillions vote went Macron in second round last time, in Peeresses defence it’s probably Macron’s war bounce that grabbed it early.
I don’t think Macron is as popular as polls suggest. If the second round vote eschews war bounce for dislike of his economic attack on voters and his love for EU I think it’s tight for him.
The OS map excerpt is a field full of solar panels, not the one my edifices are in.
I’m going to email my local cllrs but I think they are for subsidence monitoring, it seems others are inclined to agree.
Fascinating that they, I assume, monitor these by satellite?
FYI this is the field they’re in, to the south of Common Lane. I’ve put red dots - quite small though you’ll have to zoom in! - where they’re sited. And I think there’s a fifth one in the field to the north.
The canal at the top is the Aire and Calder and the white field used to be the site of a chemical works which was cleared and will have a gas powered power station on there. Never far from industry here!
I am sorry if in reposting his comments I misled anyone
@HYUFD posted
Sunak's net favourability now fallen to -15%. Ben Wallace has now overtaken him on -9%.
Truss is on -29%, Starmer is on -33%, Boris on -34% and Patel on -59%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/25/rishi-sunaks-favourability-drops-new-low-following
Other than the immigrants bit, it's basically an identical platform to Melanchon.
HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"
SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".
( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.
The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).
Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)
"Councillors think party will not be punished for rising poverty and will take Sunderland from Labour"
(SKS fans .... )
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/25/tory-leaders-confident-of-gains-in-may-local-elections
Why would you read it ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOsx0IZacAMIyZx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOsxuTNaUAkQbSg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
Excluding don't knows, it's been 55:45 "wrong in hindsight" for ages, except for a brief closure of the gap around the Vaccine Wars.
Also a steady clear lead for the idea that Brexit has harmed the country;
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-the-uks-decision-to-leave-the-eu-has-had-a-positive-or-negative-impact-on-the-country/?groups[0][0]=Very+positive&groups[0][1]=Fairly+positive&groups[1][3]=Fairly+negative&groups[1][4]=Very+negative
But also a clear sense that there's not much to be done about it and that the True Believers on both sides continue to believe with undimmed enthusiasm.
It doesn't feel permanently stable- surely the point of democracy is to correct mistakes?- but as a kind of lethargic ennui it could stick around for a very long time.
Sunderland I very much doubt though, Labour had a strong gain from UKIP there 3 weeks ago. I think the Lib Dems are also increasingly the repository for protest votes in Sunderland at a local level.