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Latest Frech election polls with 16 days to go – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 17 in General
imageLatest Frech election polls with 16 days to go – politicalbetting.com

The thing to remember about French presidential elections is how important tactical voting can be in the first round. A total of 12 managed to get themselves onto the ballot for the first round of voting on April 10th and the big question is whether or not the hard right candidate ,Le Penn, could be squeezed off the second round.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    edited March 25
    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,111

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Carnyx said:

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
    Frech off. ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    Russian bombs about reliable as a 1980s Lada...

    Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707
    Carnyx said:

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
    Every single day my daughter asks if it is Strawberry Season yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited March 25
    mwadams said:

    Carnyx said:

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
    Every single day my daughter asks if it is Strawberry Season yet.
    Can't be many days until the start of the annual scare stories about shortages of Strawberries....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    It's very hard (now) to see a first round result other than Macron vs Le Pen. He has taken votes from Pecresse, while she has grabbed them from Zemmour. And while Melanchon has made some progress, he's quite a way behind her.

    If the odds were still 18/1 on Melanchon making it to the second round, I might be prepared to have a nibble. But at 8/1, I think I'd probably rather lay.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    Russian bombs about reliable as a 1980s Lada...

    Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.

    I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,151

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    Waving the flag of success - a white swastika (no more Nazis) on a white background (a peaceful Ukraine)?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    mwadams said:

    Carnyx said:

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
    Every single day my daughter asks if it is Strawberry Season yet.
    Can't be many days until the start of the annual scare stories about shortages of Strawberries....
    Ah, the smell of mown grass. The sound of children's laughter in the park. The rustle of the Daily Mail telling me that it is shocking that Strawberries are going to be unavailable this year due to the mysterious non-appearance of European fruit pickers, and also that they give me cancer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited March 25
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Carnyx said:

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
    Every single day my daughter asks if it is Strawberry Season yet.
    Can't be many days until the start of the annual scare stories about shortages of Strawberries....
    Ah, the smell of mown grass. The sound of children's laughter in the park. The rustle of the Daily Mail telling me that it is shocking that Strawberries are going to be unavailable this year due to the mysterious non-appearance of European fruit pickers, and also that they give me cancer.
    Its normally the Guardian who get very concerned about the old Strawberry shortage....must be worried they might not be any when they go on their VIP freebies to Wimbledon and Glasto.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    edited March 25

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    There is some speculation that the Russians have given up on taking Kyiv (I mean as a strategic goal) and Odesa, and just need to secure that Donbas to Crimea landbridge so that Putin can declare “victory”.

    Hence Mariupol.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited March 25
    Andy_JS said:
    Going to be a long day in the field for England with that rather toothless attack. Woakes, Overton, Leach away from England don't scare anybody. Not sure Mahmood is the answer either.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    edited March 25
    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    Is this the much-touted off ramp.

    If so as you say all well and good; sounds a smidge too good to be true, that said.

    Edit: markets quite happy, but then they have been quite happy from Invasion +7 days.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968
    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Carnyx said:

    Typo in title: "Frech"

    Oh, and first.

    *dreams of creme fraiche and strawberries*
    Every single day my daughter asks if it is Strawberry Season yet.
    Can't be many days until the start of the annual scare stories about shortages of Strawberries....
    Ah, the smell of mown grass. The sound of children's laughter in the park. The rustle of the Daily Mail telling me that it is shocking that Strawberries are going to be unavailable this year due to the mysterious non-appearance of European fruit pickers, and also that they give me cancer.
    Its normally the Guardian who get very concerned about the old Strawberry shortage....must be worried they might not be any when they go on their VIP freebies to Wimbledon and Glasto.
    Oh, goodness. I hadn't even thought about their TERRIBLE PLIGHT. Thoughts and prayers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Worse than nothing, in that he’s basically ensured that Ukraine will both survive and look westward, and shored up the Western alliance.

    He’s also damaged his economy and made it more fragile and reliant on China.

    He’s given made the UK look like a serious player again, for the first time since about 2010.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    Roger said:

    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.

    You’d think, wouldn’t you.

    Sadly Brexitism still seems to retain the support of around 45%. There’s a regular tracker on this.

    Most of them think Brexit has gone badly, though.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    2 polls today have Macron clearly in front and Le Pen a clear second.

    Melenchon in 3rd and Zemmour and Pecresse near tied for 4th

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 17% (+0.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 12.5%
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 11% (+0.5)
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1507348706206625814?s=20&t=xyIWyI94Jx_U8FDklS4dfA

    Macron (LREM-RE): 28% (-2)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 19% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5% (+1.5)
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% (-2)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 10.5% (+0.5)
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1507295548117864449?s=20&t=xyIWyI94Jx_U8FDklS4dfA
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,151

    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Certainly have been used elsewhere in the mining industry as radar tools for subsidence monitoring, as Northern_Monkey suspected

    https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.5114&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Roger said:

    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.

    51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.

    59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.

    Only in heavily Macron supporting Paris did over half, 57%, have a negative view of Johnson
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-is-loved-by-the-french
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    edited March 25

    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Certainly have been used elsewhere in the mining industry as radar tools for subsidence monitoring, as Northern_Monkey suspected

    https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.5114&rep=rep1&type=pdf
    I'm pretty sure that OS marker is for solar farm.

    I had a look at NLS maps, but all the large-scale maps are before the colliery was built
    https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/side-by-side/#zoom=16&lat=53.70555&lon=-1.20928&layers=168&right=ESRIWorld

    If you find out, please let us know!

    I'm fairly sure they're some form of survey station for the colliery, which is where we all seem ot be converging. It'd be fascinating to know the details.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    I think there's a not insignificant chance that this crisis ends with a palace coup.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015

    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Came across this - http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530390/1/OR21002.pdf

    radar corner reflectors of a different design, but sufficiently similar in general characteristics to make you wonder....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    HYUFD said:

    2 polls today have Macron clearly in front and Le Pen a clear second.

    Melenchon in 3rd and Zemmour and Pecresse near tied for 4th

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 17% (+0.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 12.5%
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 11% (+0.5)
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1507348706206625814?s=20&t=xyIWyI94Jx_U8FDklS4dfA

    Macron (LREM-RE): 28% (-2)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 19% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14.5% (+1.5)
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% (-2)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 10.5% (+0.5)
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1507295548117864449?s=20&t=xyIWyI94Jx_U8FDklS4dfA

    The first of those is a little bit too close for comfort if I'm laying Melanchon into the second round!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited March 25
    In all seriousness, has Macron actually managed to achieve much during his time in office? He was elected supposedly as a bit of a French Tony Blair, who was going to come in and reform things like the notoriously restrictive French labour laws, in an attempt to modernise the French economy for the forthcoming ever increasing power of globalised world.

    Has he actually managed to get much through, other than closing down the inbred French finishing school for career politicians / civil servants? I don't follow things that closely, but it seemed even the very minor relaxation in some laws just led to widespread strikes, yellow jacket lot, and he appeared to back down. The fact he is again running on a ticket of reform pensions, labour laws, etc suggests he hasn't made much progress.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,111

    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Came across this - http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530390/1/OR21002.pdf

    radar corner reflectors of a different design, but sufficiently similar in general characteristics to make you wonder....
    That's interesting - used there to measure the land going up/down when gas is pumped in/out. Because the natural (sic) land is too woolly on radar for normal radar techniques to be precise.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    edited March 25

    In all seriousness, has Macron actually managed to achieve much during his time in office? He was elected supposedly as a bit of a French Tony Blair, who was going to come in and reform things like the notoriously restrictive French labour laws, in an attempt to modernise the French economy for the forthcoming ever increasing power of globalised world.

    Has he actually managed to get much through, other than closing down the inbred French finishing school for career politicians / civil servants? The fact he is again running on a ticket of reform pensions, labour laws, etc suggests not.

    I think the answer is, yes.
    It’s relative, but he’s managed to push through quite a bit of deregulation. He’s reduced the tax burden on wealthy entrepreneurs for example.

    French economic performance, which was dire, has moved up a notch to meh. (Masked by covid etc of course).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,111

    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Certainly have been used elsewhere in the mining industry as radar tools for subsidence monitoring, as Northern_Monkey suspected

    https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.5114&rep=rep1&type=pdf
    I'm pretty sure that OS marker is for solar farm.

    I had a look at NLS maps, but all the large-scale maps are before the colliery was built
    https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/side-by-side/#zoom=16&lat=53.70555&lon=-1.20928&layers=168&right=ESRIWorld

    If you find out, please let us know!

    I'm fairly sure they're some form of survey station for the colliery, which is where we all seem ot be converging. It'd be fascinating to know the details.
    I'm slightly surprised they are worried about orienting the solar panels that accurately, but maybe they needed to get a handle on the ongoing annual rate of change of level before they committed to building the farm for a lifetime of several decades.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747

    Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Came across this - http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530390/1/OR21002.pdf

    radar corner reflectors of a different design, but sufficiently similar in general characteristics to make you wonder....
    The concrete enclosure makes sense for something that's meant to be permanent: it means a farmer can't drive a tractor into it, or some numpty a motorbike.

    But what I don't understand is why it seems to be 'sitting' on a pole: I'd expect it to be firmly anchored into the ground. Unless... they could be turned?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    I think there's a not insignificant chance that this crisis ends with a palace coup.
    Medvedev has started to become a bit more visible again. Perhaps Putin thinks his best chance of protecting his regime to to repeat the same trick of hiding behind a puppet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
    That's the big if, though.

    That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.

    A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.

    The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923

    In all seriousness, has Macron actually managed to achieve much during his time in office? He was elected supposedly as a bit of a French Tony Blair, who was going to come in and reform things like the notoriously restrictive French labour laws, in an attempt to modernise the French economy for the forthcoming ever increasing power of globalised world.

    Has he actually managed to get much through, other than closing down the inbred French finishing school for career politicians / civil servants? I don't follow things that closely, but it seemed even the very minor relaxation in some laws just led to widespread strikes, yellow jacket lot, and he appeared to back down. The fact he is again running on a ticket of reform pensions, labour laws, etc suggests he hasn't made much progress.

    Much will depend on what happens in the French legislative elections in June.

    If Macron is re elected but faces a centre right majority in the National Assembly that would force him to push through economic reforms.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,305

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    I think there's a not insignificant chance that this crisis ends with a palace coup.
    Medvedev has started to become a bit more visible again. Perhaps Putin thinks his best chance of protecting his regime to to repeat the same trick of hiding behind a puppet.
    Except Medvedev's statements recently have been to more closely align with Putin, rather than to distance himself. On the one hand, that could in your scenario be the price for Putin pushing him forward as the puppet face. On the other, if Putin wants a puppet who can alleviate the West's sanctions, that does not make sense.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    A few other items on Russia that may have been missed:

    Linde has announced that its local Russian subsidiary would essentially close. This is massive news, because Russia's new LNG terminals rely on Linde kit (and they are pretty much a monopoly on some of the high end kit needed for gas separation at massive volumes). And it also casts doubt on the ability of existing LNG terminals to keep exporting. Simply, those terminals require regular maintenance.

    Which brings us to the second piece of news. Japan has (very quietly) admitted that it will continue taking LNG gas from Sakhalin-2.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    There is some speculation that the Russians have given up on taking Kyiv (I mean as a strategic goal) and Odesa, and just need to secure that Donbas to Crimea landbridge so that Putin can declare “victory”.

    Hence Mariupol.
    Alternatively the Russians see attacking Kiev as waste of resources and want to concentrate on cutting off the ukrainian army in the east and getting victory there before moving on to other objectives
    Yes, although I tend to buy the analysis that the Russians can’t maintain this for months on end.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707
    edited March 25
    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
    That's the big if, though.

    That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.

    A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.

    The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
    If they can cut the supply down that coastal corridor, it all becomes very much more difficult for the Russians to sustain. As you say, particularly if the Western allies supply more (and more specifically useful) weapons. For example, the anti-ship missiles we heard about yesterday would seem to be geared towards disrupting supply via the southern ports, as much as seaborne assault on Odessa.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    In all seriousness, has Macron actually managed to achieve much during his time in office? He was elected supposedly as a bit of a French Tony Blair, who was going to come in and reform things like the notoriously restrictive French labour laws, in an attempt to modernise the French economy for the forthcoming ever increasing power of globalised world.

    Has he actually managed to get much through, other than closing down the inbred French finishing school for career politicians / civil servants? I don't follow things that closely, but it seemed even the very minor relaxation in some laws just led to widespread strikes, yellow jacket lot, and he appeared to back down. The fact he is again running on a ticket of reform pensions, labour laws, etc suggests he hasn't made much progress.

    He has made some progress: it's a lot easier to let people go in France than it used to be, and he's raised the retirement age.

    But he hasn't made as much progress as he might.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    edited March 25
    Sunak's net favourability now fallen to -15%. Ben Wallace has now overtaken him on -9%.

    Truss is on -29%, Starmer is on -33%, Boris on -34% and Patel on -59%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/25/rishi-sunaks-favourability-drops-new-low-following

    Disenchantment across the board

    Starmer at -33 to Boris - 34 indicates neither are popular


    HYUFD and BIG-G


    I noticed this on the previous thread. According to the YouGov figures Starmer is -21
    Johnson is -34

    Is it me or are you and Big G dreaming what might have been......?


  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,887

    Andy_JS said:
    Going to be a long day in the field for England with that rather toothless attack. Woakes, Overton, Leach away from England don't scare anybody. Not sure Mahmood is the answer either.
    It only we had a couple of 500 Test wicket bowlers to select. Sigh….
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    It's still just about possible that Melenchon could squeeze on to the runoff on only 16-17% but it's a very narrow window and the implosion of Pecresse and Zemmour appear to have solidified Le Pen at 18-20%. Jadot and Rousell also stubbornly holding up at 3-4% and 5% respectively.

    Melenchon is still doing OK with younger voters but not well enough and is extremely weak among elderly voters.
  • biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Going to be a long day in the field for England with that rather toothless attack. Woakes, Overton, Leach away from England don't scare anybody. Not sure Mahmood is the answer either.
    It only we had a couple of 500 Test wicket bowlers to select. Sigh….
    Sorry I disagree. Those two need to retire and we need to bring through the next generation of bowlers.

    Do you think for a second Anderson will be able to help us regain the Ashes next time? Absolutely not, so it's time to thank him for his many years of excellence and move on.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,887
    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
    That's the big if, though.

    That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.

    A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.

    The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
    On the other hand, have NATO and the Europe now basically decided to just pick a side, and to take a hit and move on from any reliance on Russia? Basically keep the foot on the throat until Putin goes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Roger said:

    Sunak's net favourability now fallen to -15%. Ben Wallace has now overtaken him on -9%.

    Truss is on -29%, Starmer is on -33%, Boris on -34% and Patel on -59%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/25/rishi-sunaks-favourability-drops-new-low-following

    Disenchantment across the board

    Starmer at -33 to Boris - 34 indicates neither are popular


    HYUFD and BIG-G


    I noticed this on the previous thread. According to the YouGov figures Starmer is -21
    Johnson is -34

    Is it me or are you and Big G dreaming what might have been......?




    Either way Wallace is still the most popular senior politician today, more popular in net terms than Boris, the rest of the Cabinet top tier and indeed Starmer too
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    Could be quite the backdrop for the F1 race.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
    That's the big if, though.

    That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.

    A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.

    The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
    On the other hand, have NATO and the Europe now basically decided to just pick a side, and to take a hit and move on from any reliance on Russia? Basically keep the foot on the throat until Putin goes.
    Though the non West does not seem that bothered about putting pressure on Russia.

    The Ambassadors of China, India, Brazil and South Africa all happily posed for a photo with Lavrov today


    https://twitter.com/MarkHiggie1/status/1507299241969868803?s=20&t=pJsFO3eoaKGsBZdIfj4I0w
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    There is some speculation that the Russians have given up on taking Kyiv (I mean as a strategic goal) and Odesa, and just need to secure that Donbas to Crimea landbridge so that Putin can declare “victory”.

    Hence Mariupol.
    Alternatively the Russians see attacking Kiev as waste of resources and want to concentrate on cutting off the ukrainian army in the east and getting victory there before moving on to other objectives
    "A waste of resources" is a code for "have failed in their initial objectives and are now seeking to redefine them in a more limited way so as to claim victory for domestic consumption"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    That's not the kind of thing that happens if things are going well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    Pulpstar said:

    Could be quite the backdrop for the F1 race.

    Given the price of oil, some of the teams might struggle to give their cars enough fuel to finish.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.

    51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.

    59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.

    Only in heavily Macron supporting Paris did over half, 57%, have a negative view of Johnson
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-is-loved-by-the-french
    Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,525
    What, actually, is the main reasoning for a land bridge from Crimea to Donbass?

    Both Crimea and Donbass directly border Russia and join their road systems. Kerch in eastern Crimea is dependent on a bridge, but it is a little distance from Ukrainian control and hasn't been threatened afaik. Still closing an attack route across the Sea of Azov and providing a second route - I can see good advantage in it, but it's doesn't quite seem vital. And maybe holding Mariupol, as the main Azov port, rather than having to maintain the whole bridge might be enough to remedy any Kerch issue?

    And the land bridge gives little advantage to Donbass itself.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Going to be a long day in the field for England with that rather toothless attack. Woakes, Overton, Leach away from England don't scare anybody. Not sure Mahmood is the answer either.
    It only we had a couple of 500 Test wicket bowlers to select. Sigh….
    Sorry I disagree. Those two need to retire and we need to bring through the next generation of bowlers.

    Do you think for a second Anderson will be able to help us regain the Ashes next time? Absolutely not, so it's time to thank him for his many years of excellence and move on.
    Hard to disagree. Anderson and Broad have been extraordinary, and have led England's bowling for a decade and a half, which is an enormously long time for quick bowlers.

    But we need to find and promote the guys who will lead the bowling for the next decade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited March 25
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.

    51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.

    59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.

    Only in heavily Macron supporting Paris did over half, 57%, have a negative view of Johnson
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-is-loved-by-the-french
    Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
    Link to the poll conducted by French pollster IFOP here. Only supporters of Macron's En Marche party and the Socialists had a negative view of Johnson.

    Supporters of Le Pen and Les Republicains and Melenchon all had a positive view of Johnson by contrast

    https://www.ifop.com/publication/le-regard-des-francais-sur-boris-johnson/
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,383

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    I like that News :)

    However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.

    51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.

    59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.

    Only in heavily Macron supporting Paris did over half, 57%, have a negative view of Johnson
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-is-loved-by-the-french
    Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
    https://www.lepoint.fr/debats/boris-johnson-un-modele-politique-pour-la-france-21-05-2021-2427491_2.php
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    BigRich said:

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    I like that News :)

    However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
    I think it’s the same incident but he didn’t survive.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    Talk of the Devil!!

    Daily Express "PM's Popularity surges to 5 month high"

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1584498/Boris-Johnson-latest-approval-rating-evg

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Could be quite the backdrop for the F1 race.

    Given the price of oil, some of the teams might struggle to give their cars enough fuel to finish.
    When was the last time a missile landed a few miles from an F1 track during free practise ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157
    BigRich said:

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    I like that News :)

    However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
    Useless Russian soldiers. If you are going to do that sort of shit a clean kill is pretty important
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015

    BigRich said:

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    I like that News :)

    However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
    I think it’s the same incident but he didn’t survive.
    "Dammit! Driver - Reverse! Reverse!"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    edited March 25
    On Topic. Betting post. My long time bet on Mélenchon to make top two gives me a mere £11 profit if I check out now. so I am not at all tempted. Le Pen is clearly benefitting from Zemour demise, a Zemmour polling 15ish would help Melenchon get Ahead of Le Pen. However, firstly, Melenchon got nearly 20% last time, so I stick with my bet to the end and Let’s watch Le Pen gets those votes out to beat him. Secondly, as I said often before don’t think it’s immpoisible for Melenchon and Le Pen to share voters, as it was just as easy for yellow jackets to stand side by side. So I disagree with Mike the only source of Mélenchon votes is to mop up the left, a Le Pen wobble could see some of her vote go the Mélenchon in my opinion.

    Also, certainly betting wise, I don’t think Macron is home and hosed in second round, whoever comes second to him I will have a flutter on whilst odds are long. The anti macron candidate has a massive armoury to use this time. Last time Macron was bit of a blank canvass, in this election the majority of voters are against Macrons retirement plans and his tax plans and his love for EU.

    And a further way I would question Mikes header, is Le Pen really viewed in France these days as “hard right” as her father and the party in his day? I’m not sure she gobbles up the moderate right voters so easily if true, surely she has done the hard work and shifted on the spectrum to be more inclusive to all right of centre conservatives, and anti EU voters and nationalist from everywhere on the spectrum? I would not be surprised to see second round tighten to at least put some doubt on Macron’s re-election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    That's not the kind of thing that happens if things are going well.
    Klingon Promotion.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    IshmaelZ said:

    BigRich said:

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    I like that News :)

    However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
    Useless Russian soldiers. If you are going to do that sort of shit a clean kill is pretty important
    Running him over is also a bit obvious. Whatever happened to "mysteriously shot in a battle with opposing forces"?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,383
    Pro_Rata said:

    What, actually, is the main reasoning for a land bridge from Crimea to Donbass?

    Both Crimea and Donbass directly border Russia and join their road systems. Kerch in eastern Crimea is dependent on a bridge, but it is a little distance from Ukrainian control and hasn't been threatened afaik. Still closing an attack route across the Sea of Azov and providing a second route - I can see good advantage in it, but it's doesn't quite seem vital. And maybe holding Mariupol, as the main Azov port, rather than having to maintain the whole bridge might be enough to remedy any Kerch issue?

    And the land bridge gives little advantage to Donbass itself.

    I disagree, if they can hold the costal strip, linking Crimea to the Donbass regens, then that does strengthen there position, for one thing they get a water supply in to the Crimea, which they did not have before and were always worried about it being cut. second it enclouds central Ukraine from a port and access to the outside would making them enclosed on 3 sides, which limits Ukraine ability to trade, and/or makes Ukraine exporters rely on Russian ports. also if provided a back up if anything was to happen to the Russian bridge, while simulaniasly harder for anything to happen to that bridge.

    Russia probably knows the people in the area are not going to go along with this plan, hence the total destruction of Mariupol and the death or deputation of as much of the population as possible, a day or 2 ago we heard of 64,000 Mariupol residents who had been bussed off to Russia. I think soon that will be the whole population that did not flee earlier or have been killed.

    Also, lots of nice cost for Oligarchs beach fount villa now they can no longer go abroad
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    Pro_Rata said:

    What, actually, is the main reasoning for a land bridge from Crimea to Donbass?

    Both Crimea and Donbass directly border Russia and join their road systems. Kerch in eastern Crimea is dependent on a bridge, but it is a little distance from Ukrainian control and hasn't been threatened afaik. Still closing an attack route across the Sea of Azov and providing a second route - I can see good advantage in it, but it's doesn't quite seem vital. And maybe holding Mariupol, as the main Azov port, rather than having to maintain the whole bridge might be enough to remedy any Kerch issue?

    And the land bridge gives little advantage to Donbass itself.

    There is the water supply issue for Crimea - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Going to be a long day in the field for England with that rather toothless attack. Woakes, Overton, Leach away from England don't scare anybody. Not sure Mahmood is the answer either.
    It only we had a couple of 500 Test wicket bowlers to select. Sigh….
    One down, thanks to Stokes.
    On the general point, agree. Can't see what Essex' Little Chef, as Sam Cook is known, has done wrong. Apart from playing for an unfashionable county with, until recently, a Chairman who spoke his mind.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    So is Starmer -33 to Boris -34 both equally as unpopular as widely posted on here today. Or Starmer way ahead on -21?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,622
    Pro_Rata said:

    What, actually, is the main reasoning for a land bridge from Crimea to Donbass?

    Both Crimea and Donbass directly border Russia and join their road systems. Kerch in eastern Crimea is dependent on a bridge, but it is a little distance from Ukrainian control and hasn't been threatened afaik. Still closing an attack route across the Sea of Azov and providing a second route - I can see good advantage in it, but it's doesn't quite seem vital. And maybe holding Mariupol, as the main Azov port, rather than having to maintain the whole bridge might be enough to remedy any Kerch issue?

    And the land bridge gives little advantage to Donbass itself.

    Is there something to do with the fact that if Russia hold the land bridge from Crimea to Donbass, then the whole Sea of Azov becomes Russian internal waters, rather than international ones?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814

    So is Starmer -33 to Boris -34 both equally as unpopular as widely posted on here today. Or Starmer way ahead on -21?

    This is Yougov

    Net favourability of senior politicians:

    Rishi Sunak: -15
    Keir Starmer: -21
    Boris Johnson: -34
    Priti Patel: -59
    Ben Wallace: -9 (63% don't know)

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    It's still just about possible that Melenchon could squeeze on to the runoff on only 16-17% but it's a very narrow window and the implosion of Pecresse and Zemmour appear to have solidified Le Pen at 18-20%. Jadot and Rousell also stubbornly holding up at 3-4% and 5% respectively.

    Melenchon is still doing OK with younger voters but not well enough and is extremely weak among elderly voters.

    The younger voters seem to be all over the shop in this election, Melenchon’s problem is actually not popular enough with them.

    I think a lot of Pecrasse collapse went to Macron, as much of Fillions vote went Macron in second round last time, in Peeresses defence it’s probably Macron’s war bounce that grabbed it early.

    I don’t think Macron is as popular as polls suggest. If the second round vote eschews war bounce for dislike of his economic attack on voters and his love for EU I think it’s tight for him.
  • Carnyx said:

    Wildly off topic, but I wonder if the educated and worldly wise inhabitants of this forum can identify the structure pictured below.









    There’s four of them spaced seemingly randomly in a field I walk the dogs in. They’re solid concrete boxes, standing just under six feet high, on a solid metal pole. One side is angled and pressed into that face is a concave pyramidal mirror.

    No idea how long they’ve been there but at least six years, that’s how long I’ve lived near them. They all face due west. They don’t seem to be maintained in any way.

    They’re a few hundred metres south west from the old Kellingley Colliery site, so I wondered if they’re anything to do with monitoring subsidence, but that’s just a wild guess. Are they for the alignment of something?

    Any ideas?

    Edit: Not sure why some of the images have spun round.

    Grain storage?
    Could well be for monitoring mining subsidence. They make me think of corner reflectors for lasers -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector

    But could be a radar reflector also - no idea which, though the polish suggests optical wavelengths.

    Edit. @JosiasJessop has responded, I see.
    Corner reflectors, fascinating. They seem to be marked on the OS map. The symbol used is suggestive, but not in the key.


    Certainly have been used elsewhere in the mining industry as radar tools for subsidence monitoring, as Northern_Monkey suspected

    https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.5114&rep=rep1&type=pdf
    Thanks everyone for your replies and suggestions. Haven’t been able to respond until now due to an impromptu pond draining session. The weather is glorious here today.

    The OS map excerpt is a field full of solar panels, not the one my edifices are in.

    I’m going to email my local cllrs but I think they are for subsidence monitoring, it seems others are inclined to agree.

    Fascinating that they, I assume, monitor these by satellite?

    FYI this is the field they’re in, to the south of Common Lane. I’ve put red dots - quite small though you’ll have to zoom in! - where they’re sited. And I think there’s a fifth one in the field to the north.



    The canal at the top is the Aire and Calder and the white field used to be the site of a chemical works which was cleared and will have a gas powered power station on there. Never far from industry here!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    So is Starmer -33 to Boris -34 both equally as unpopular as widely posted on here today. Or Starmer way ahead on -21?

    This is Yougov

    Net favourability of senior politicians:

    Rishi Sunak: -15
    Keir Starmer: -21
    Boris Johnson: -34
    Priti Patel: -59
    Ben Wallace: -9 (63% don't know)

    Where did you get the -33 figure from?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited March 25

    So is Starmer -33 to Boris -34 both equally as unpopular as widely posted on here today. Or Starmer way ahead on -21?

    This is Yougov

    Net favourability of senior politicians:

    Rishi Sunak: -15
    Keir Starmer: -21
    Boris Johnson: -34
    Priti Patel: -59
    Ben Wallace: -9 (63% don't know)

    Where did you get the -33 figure from?
    The sage himself @HYUFD

    I am sorry if in reposting his comments I misled anyone

    @HYUFD posted

    Sunak's net favourability now fallen to -15%. Ben Wallace has now overtaken him on -9%.

    Truss is on -29%, Starmer is on -33%, Boris on -34% and Patel on -59%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/25/rishi-sunaks-favourability-drops-new-low-following
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Windies 70-3 now!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    On Topic. Betting post. My long time bet on Mélenchon to make top two gives me a mere £11 profit if I check out now. so I am not at all tempted. Le Pen is clearly benefitting from Zemour demise, a Zemmour polling 15ish would help Melenchon get Ahead of Le Pen. However, firstly, Melenchon got nearly 20% last time, so I stick with my bet to the end and Let’s watch Le Pen gets those votes out to beat him. Secondly, as I said often before don’t think it’s immpoisible for Melenchon and Le Pen to share voters, as it was just as easy for yellow jackets to stand side by side. So I disagree with Mike the only source of Mélenchon votes is to mop up the left, a Le Pen wobble could see some of her vote go the Mélenchon in my opinion.

    Also, certainly betting wise, I don’t think Macron is home and hosed in second round, whoever comes second to him I will have a flutter on whilst odds are long. The anti macron candidate has a massive armoury to use this time. Last time Macron was bit of a blank canvass, in this election the majority of voters are against Macrons retirement plans and his tax plans and his love for EU.

    And a further way I would question Mikes header, is Le Pen really viewed in France these days as “hard right” as her father and the party in his day? I’m not sure she gobbles up the moderate right voters so easily if true, surely she has done the hard work and shifted on the spectrum to be more inclusive to all right of centre conservatives, and anti EU voters and nationalist from everywhere on the spectrum? I would not be surprised to see second round tighten to at least put some doubt on Macron’s re-election.

    She's not particularly Eurosceptic anymore: she's even ditched the FN's opposition to the Euro (so long as the EU lets her run big budget deficits). Really, her core policy platform is: (a) don't allow immigrants from outside Europe into France, (b) subsidise French heavy industry, and (c) make it harder for French firms to fire workers.

    Other than the immigrants bit, it's basically an identical platform to Melanchon.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    Does the Express still count as a 'newspaper'?

    HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"

    SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".



    ( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.

    The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).

    Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)





  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    IshmaelZ said:

    BigRich said:

    BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.
    Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805

    I like that News :)

    However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
    Useless Russian soldiers. If you are going to do that sort of shit a clean kill is pretty important
    Running him over is also a bit obvious. Whatever happened to "mysteriously shot in a battle with opposing forces"?
    Is it the case that he had not yet died yesterday. But has done so today?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Roger said:

    Does the Express still count as a 'newspaper'?

    HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"

    SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".



    ( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.

    The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).

    Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)





    The express has gone all Daily Mirror in its front page attack on this weeks budget.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    mwadams said:

    Is it the case that he had not yet died yesterday. But has done so today?

    Did they run over him again, just to make sure?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,496
    Roger said:

    Does the Express still count as a 'newspaper'?

    HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"

    SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".



    ( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.

    The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).

    Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)

    Express taking a leaf out of Pravda's book.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707
    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    Is it the case that he had not yet died yesterday. But has done so today?

    Did they run over him again, just to make sure?
    He accidentally brutally stabbed himself 26 times while shaving.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,604
    "Tory leaders confident of gains in May local elections"

    "Councillors think party will not be punished for rising poverty and will take Sunderland from Labour"

    (SKS fans .... )

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/25/tory-leaders-confident-of-gains-in-may-local-elections
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707
    MikeL said:

    "Tory leaders confident of gains in May local elections"

    "Councillors think party will not be punished for rising poverty and will take Sunderland from Labour"

    (SKS fans .... )

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/25/tory-leaders-confident-of-gains-in-may-local-elections

    Let the expectations management...BEGIN! 🎪🤹
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Roger said:

    Does the Express still count as a 'newspaper'?

    HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"

    SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".



    ( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.

    The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).

    Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)


    You do know the express is a conservative supporting paper don't you

    Why would you read it ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889
    mwadams said:

    Russian bombs about reliable as a 1980s Lada...

    Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.

    I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
    In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,305
    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
    That's the big if, though.

    That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.

    A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.

    The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
    If they can cut the supply down that coastal corridor, it all becomes very much more difficult for the Russians to sustain. As you say, particularly if the Western allies supply more (and more specifically useful) weapons. For example, the anti-ship missiles we heard about yesterday would seem to be geared towards disrupting supply via the southern ports, as much as seaborne assault on Odessa.
    This guy's maps are more useful for trying to understand where the vulnerable supply lines are:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOsx0IZacAMIyZx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOsxuTNaUAkQbSg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096




    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482
    edited March 25

    Roger said:

    The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.

    You’d think, wouldn’t you.

    Sadly Brexitism still seems to retain the support of around 45%. There’s a regular tracker on this.

    Most of them think Brexit has gone badly, though.
    Details of the tracker here;
    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    Excluding don't knows, it's been 55:45 "wrong in hindsight" for ages, except for a brief closure of the gap around the Vaccine Wars.

    Also a steady clear lead for the idea that Brexit has harmed the country;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-the-uks-decision-to-leave-the-eu-has-had-a-positive-or-negative-impact-on-the-country/?groups[0][0]=Very+positive&groups[0][1]=Fairly+positive&groups[1][3]=Fairly+negative&groups[1][4]=Very+negative

    But also a clear sense that there's not much to be done about it and that the True Believers on both sides continue to believe with undimmed enthusiasm.

    It doesn't feel permanently stable- surely the point of democracy is to correct mistakes?- but as a kind of lethargic ennui it could stick around for a very long time.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    MikeL said:

    "Tory leaders confident of gains in May local elections"

    "Councillors think party will not be punished for rising poverty and will take Sunderland from Labour"

    (SKS fans .... )

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/25/tory-leaders-confident-of-gains-in-may-local-elections

    There are various places the Tories could do well or even make gains (Scotland, the Midlands etc) .

    Sunderland I very much doubt though, Labour had a strong gain from UKIP there 3 weeks ago. I think the Lib Dems are also increasingly the repository for protest votes in Sunderland at a local level.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707
    TimT said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

    The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507360791086911490

    That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.

    Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.

    I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.

    The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.

    On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
    The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
    Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
    That's the big if, though.

    That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.

    A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.

    The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
    If they can cut the supply down that coastal corridor, it all becomes very much more difficult for the Russians to sustain. As you say, particularly if the Western allies supply more (and more specifically useful) weapons. For example, the anti-ship missiles we heard about yesterday would seem to be geared towards disrupting supply via the southern ports, as much as seaborne assault on Odessa.
    This guy's maps are more useful for trying to understand where the vulnerable supply lines are:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOsx0IZacAMIyZx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOsxuTNaUAkQbSg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096




    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000
    That illustrates it perfectly. Cut those coastal routes at a couple of points and that whole inland incursion is starved.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,887
    edited March 25
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Going to be a long day in the field for England with that rather toothless attack. Woakes, Overton, Leach away from England don't scare anybody. Not sure Mahmood is the answer either.
    It only we had a couple of 500 Test wicket bowlers to select. Sigh….
    Sorry I disagree. Those two need to retire and we need to bring through the next generation of bowlers.

    Do you think for a second Anderson will be able to help us regain the Ashes next time? Absolutely not, so it's time to thank him for his many years of excellence and move on.
    Hard to disagree. Anderson and Broad have been extraordinary, and have led England's bowling for a decade and a half, which is an enormously long time for quick bowlers.

    But we need to find and promote the guys who will lead the bowling for the next decade.
    No, we need to select the best available eleven but trial the new young talent in the other bowling slots or when Broad/Anderson are injured or rested. You didn’t see the Aussies wishing McGrath and Warne away like this.
This discussion has been closed.