On Topic. Betting post. My long time bet on Mélenchon to make top two gives me a mere £11 profit if I check out now. so I am not at all tempted. Le Pen is clearly benefitting from Zemour demise, a Zemmour polling 15ish would help Melenchon get Ahead of Le Pen. However, firstly, Melenchon got nearly 20% last time, so I stick with my bet to the end and Let’s watch Le Pen gets those votes out to beat him. Secondly, as I said often before don’t think it’s immpoisible for Melenchon and Le Pen to share voters, as it was just as easy for yellow jackets to stand side by side. So I disagree with Mike the only source of Mélenchon votes is to mop up the left, a Le Pen wobble could see some of her vote go the Mélenchon in my opinion.
Also, certainly betting wise, I don’t think Macron is home and hosed in second round, whoever comes second to him I will have a flutter on whilst odds are long. The anti macron candidate has a massive armoury to use this time. Last time Macron was bit of a blank canvass, in this election the majority of voters are against Macrons retirement plans and his tax plans and his love for EU.
And a further way I would question Mikes header, is Le Pen really viewed in France these days as “hard right” as her father and the party in his day? I’m not sure she gobbles up the moderate right voters so easily if true, surely she has done the hard work and shifted on the spectrum to be more inclusive to all right of centre conservatives, and anti EU voters and nationalist from everywhere on the spectrum? I would not be surprised to see second round tighten to at least put some doubt on Macron’s re-election.
She's not particularly Eurosceptic anymore: she's even ditched the FN's opposition to the Euro (so long as the EU lets her run big budget deficits). Really, her core policy platform is: (a) don't allow immigrants from outside Europe into France, (b) subsidise French heavy industry, and (c) make it harder for French firms to fire workers.
Other than the immigrants bit, it's basically an identical platform to Melanchon.
I have liked your post Robert, because this bit
“ Other than the immigrants bit, it's basically an identical platform to Melanchon. “
I believe to be spot on.
Except for two points. Melenchon does also echo the Nationalistic “on est chez nous” slogan of Le Pen, and if anything has more of a Germanophobic back catalogue than Le Pen. Secondly, in a run off with Macron it will still be clear which of the 2 candidates in pro EU and which is by far the more sceptical.
This is a proper Political Betting analysis day on PB today 🙂
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
No, we're not getting that nuclear holocaust. I've ejected it from my bag of worries. There's still plenty in there but that one has gone.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
That's the big if, though.
That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.
A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.
The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
If they can cut the supply down that coastal corridor, it all becomes very much more difficult for the Russians to sustain. As you say, particularly if the Western allies supply more (and more specifically useful) weapons. For example, the anti-ship missiles we heard about yesterday would seem to be geared towards disrupting supply via the southern ports, as much as seaborne assault on Odessa.
This guy's maps are more useful for trying to understand where the vulnerable supply lines are:
That illustrates it perfectly. Cut those coastal routes at a couple of points and that whole inland incursion is starved.
(Or to put it another way, don't look at the big pink blobs on the BBC maps; it's more complicated/much simpler than that. The transport network is still king.)
It also explains why the Ukrainians are going for Ivankiv to the NW of Kyiv. Cut that off, and you cut of all resupply from Belarus for the Russians trying to approach from the NW.
This is why 'encirclement' per se is not the relevant factor in the muddy season. Think more about networks - hubs and links. What are the most important hubs and links to crash in order to crash the entire resupply network. It seems the Ukrainians have grasped this, and the Russians are only now grasping it, rather late in the day.
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
I think that’s when fault lines will emerge in the west, certainly. I can see the likes of Poland (and possibly us) wanting to keep supplying them while the French and Germans push for ceasefire and talks. What matter is probably where Biden lands.
HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"
SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".
( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.
The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).
Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)
Why on earth are you embarrassing yourself?- the figures you quote show the opposite of what you think. Your posts about Boris popularity in France also showed you to be 100% wrong. Are you ok...hun?
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
I think that’s when fault lines will emerge in the west, certainly. I can see the likes of Poland (and possibly us) wanting to keep supplying them while the French and Germans push for ceasefire and talks. What matter is probably where Biden lands.
I agree. Alas, I think early indications are with the French and Germans.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
That's the big if, though.
That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.
A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.
The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
Well, there are other difficulties. Chernihiv is at risk of becoming the next Mariupol. Can the Ukrainians break that encirclement, or will they have to watch another city starved and pounded into submission at a horrendous cost in civilian lives?
And then where next?
Can they turn the tide fast enough to stop any other city from receiving that scale of damage?
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
The tacit admission of failure could have domestic political repercussions too. Putin will have killed >10,000 Russian soldiers for almost nothing.
Particularly if Ukraine can dislodge them from that land bridge in the South. The Russians will have established the status-quo ante at the expense of 10-20k soldiers, billions of roubles, and pariah status for at least 20 years.
That's the big if, though.
That being said, I wouldn't fancy being the Russians and holding a long narrow strip along the coast. It is dangerously easy for it to get broken.
A lot depends on the willingness of the Western alliance to keep reinforcing the Ukrainians with modern weapons. If they are willing to keep the flow of arms and ammunition going, while the Russians continue to suffer supply shortages, then my money would be on the Ukrainians.
The difficulty for them is simply that at some point, they will want normality to resume.
If they can cut the supply down that coastal corridor, it all becomes very much more difficult for the Russians to sustain. As you say, particularly if the Western allies supply more (and more specifically useful) weapons. For example, the anti-ship missiles we heard about yesterday would seem to be geared towards disrupting supply via the southern ports, as much as seaborne assault on Odessa.
This guy's maps are more useful for trying to understand where the vulnerable supply lines are:
That illustrates it perfectly. Cut those coastal routes at a couple of points and that whole inland incursion is starved.
It's not that simple, because the Ukrainians would need to be able to supply the forces that would cut those routes. And if they could do that they would have been able to supply Mariupol, or launched an attack to break the siege.
- Cases - UP. But R is down in all regions and ages - seems to be heading back to 1 - In Hospital - UP - Admissions - UP. R is falling a bit, though. - MV beds - UP - Deaths - UP
So has Biden definitely signed the West up to war with Russia if any NBC weapon is used on Ukraine? His rhetoric is such today he cannot later back away now can he? Is this how you are hearing it too?
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
Russia's main objective now is securing the Donbas, says Gen Sergei Rudskoy, operations chief of the general staff. Quite an important interview, combining a mixture of insight & post-rationalisation of the campaign's failures
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
Err no. A poll which showed that a lot of French people have a more positive view of Boris than Macron. I know that has got to hurt you but it's awfully funny for the rest of us. Also says a lot about your finger on the French pulse.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
So has Biden definitely signed the West up to war with Russia if any NBC weapon is used on Ukraine? His rhetoric is such today he cannot later back away now can he? Is this how you are hearing it too?
He has committed to 'a response', not necessarily a military one
So has Biden definitely signed the West up to war with Russia if any NBC weapon is used on Ukraine? His rhetoric is such today he cannot later back away now can he? Is this how you are hearing it too?
He has committed to 'a response', not necessarily a military one
Going to be so many exclamation marks in the letter that will be sent.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
So has Biden definitely signed the West up to war with Russia if any NBC weapon is used on Ukraine? His rhetoric is such today he cannot later back away now can he? Is this how you are hearing it too?
He has committed to 'a response', not necessarily a military one
Going to be so many exclamation marks in the letter that will be sent.
Yes, my heart sank when I heard the words come from his mouth.
Somewhat surprising if any of that happens - although Labour could be in trouble in Sunderland if they leak votes to the LDs.
Tories are also likely to leak votes to the LDs so Labour probably won't lose seats to the Tories (relative to 2018) even if they lose a couple to the LDs. Labour could even gain one or two seats from the Tories. Look at the recent by election where Labour and LDs both did well: https://www.aldc.org/2022/03/sunderland-mbc-redhill-03-march-2022/. On a bad night the Tories might only win a couple of seats. In 2015 they only won one.
Scoop: Simon Case has been quizzed by the Met in its Partygate investigation. Senior Whitehall officials say cabinet secretary received a questionnaire
That means the PM, chancellor and the country's top civil servant are all part of the Met's inquiries
“Simon is totally compromised, he’s worried about being fined by the police — it’s widely known he is being investigated. He’s struggling to lead the civil service too, I don’t see him lasting [in his role].”
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
Err no. A poll which showed that a lot of French people have a more positive view of Boris than Macron. I know that has got to hurt you but it's awfully funny for the rest of us. Also says a lot about your finger on the French pulse.
Then again, plenty of Brits prefer Manu to Johnson.
- Cases - UP. But R is down in all regions and ages - seems to be heading back to 1 - In Hospital - UP - Admissions - UP. R is falling a bit, though. - MV beds - UP - Deaths - UP
Looks like we are reaching the peak for BA.2
The week on week increase in cases is coming down quite swiftly, 2 weeks ago it was in the regen of 60% increase 59.7% IIRC, a week ago it was about 40% 3 days ago it dropped below 20% and is now below 10% (8.5%) week on week increase and will surely peek and start falling in the next few days. in fact given the delay between sampling and repotting, and the 3 day typical incubation period before symptoms arrive, its possible that we are at peek infection today.
how quickly if falls and what the equilibrium level of infection is, we have yet to find out, and weather there will be a new variant....
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
These days… How do you double the value of a Ferrari? Fill it up with petrol.
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
Russia would have been better off rushing in to the Donbas only, then taking some fire from the Nazis in Mariupol (as they would undoubtedly have done), then responding to the 'attacks on civilians' by upping the ante and attacking Mariupol.
BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said. Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
I think it’s the same incident but he didn’t survive.
Initial reports: they ran over his legs.
Follow up report: he had his head between his legs....
HYUFD used to post polling detail from dodgy pollsters (Trafalgar). I like that he has cut out the middle man and is just posting his own material that fits his narrative now. Respect!
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"
SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".
( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.
The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).
Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)
You do know the express is a conservative supporting paper don't you
Why would you read it ?
It isn't a "conservative supporting paper" it is a populist comic for the severely politically and socially retarded.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
If the borders returned to pre February 22nd - i.e. Crimea + the separatist regions - then I think there could be "peace", but a lot of the Western sanctions would remain. Plus, of course, Germany would still be rearming, a tonne of new LNG projects would be greenlit and NS2 would never be turned on. And Russian military might would be shown to be a chimera.
What we - and Ukraine - really want is regime change in Moscow, the return of the Donbas, reparations and *maybe* a UN administered plebiscite in Crimea. If that were to happen, then I think sanctions on Russia could be lifted.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
Russia would have been better off rushing in to the Donbas only, then taking some fire from the Nazis in Mariupol (as they would undoubtedly have done), then responding to the 'attacks on civilians' by upping the ante and attacking Mariupol.
"Nazis in Mariupol"
Fuck off, you pathetic Russia-excusing twat. Civilians - people like you or I - are dying in Mariupol. The fascists are the people that are killing them.
Obviously Orban being pro-Putin as much as he can currently get away with is little surprise (at least he is not rejecting the refugees), but this bit from the BBC is a little confusing to me - is he saying the Ukrainians would attack the ethnic-Hungarian minority, or that for some reason those people are not under threat from Russia at the moment?
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has dismissed an appeal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for weapons and tougher sanctions against Russia, saying it would be "against Hungary's interests".
Orban rejected Zelensky's demands at the European Council "because they are contrary to the interests of Hungary", Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said in a statement.
"Hungary wants to stay out of this war, so it will not allow the transfer of arms and weapons to Ukraine," Kovacs said.
Orban says that the ethnic-Hungarian minority in the west of Ukraine would be threatened if Hungary sent weapons to Kyiv.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
Err no. A poll which showed that a lot of French people have a more positive view of Boris than Macron. I know that has got to hurt you but it's awfully funny for the rest of us. Also says a lot about your finger on the French pulse.
Then again, plenty of Brits prefer Manu to Johnson.
So has Biden definitely signed the West up to war with Russia if any NBC weapon is used on Ukraine? His rhetoric is such today he cannot later back away now can he? Is this how you are hearing it too?
He has committed to 'a response', not necessarily a military one
US President Joe Biden has said Nato "would respond" if Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine. The president - who is in Europe for talks with allies - did not spell out what that might mean. Asked whether the use of chemical weapons by Russia's Vladimir Putin would prompt a military response from Nato, Mr Biden replied that it "would trigger a response in kind". "We would respond if he uses it. The nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use," he said.
It’s inching closer to having to act the longer the war lasts, isn’t it?
HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"
SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".
( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.
The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).
Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)
You do know the express is a conservative supporting paper don't you
Why would you read it ?
It isn't a "conservative supporting paper" it is a populist comic for the severely politically and socially retarded.
The mystery of why so many voted for Brexit continues to deepen..
- Cases - UP. But R is down in all regions and ages - seems to be heading back to 1 - In Hospital - UP - Admissions - UP. R is falling a bit, though. - MV beds - UP - Deaths - UP
Looks like we are reaching the peak for BA.2
The week on week increase in cases is coming down quite swiftly, 2 weeks ago it was in the regen of 60% increase 59.7% IIRC, a week ago it was about 40% 3 days ago it dropped below 20% and is now below 10% (8.5%) week on week increase and will surely peek and start falling in the next few days. in fact given the delay between sampling and repotting, and the 3 day typical incubation period before symptoms arrive, its possible that we are at peek infection today.
how quickly if falls and what the equilibrium level of infection is, we have yet to find out, and weather there will be a new variant....
I find it simpler to look at These (which say exactly what you are saying) -
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
Folk can be very forgetful.
I knew registered voters with two properties, one in the Vale of Glamorgan and one in Cardiff North. A Conservative activist in the Vale, he considered himself and his now ex-wife worthy of their two votes.
Maybe similarly, Andrea had two votes in the EU Ref. Mind you not voting at all would have expended less effort and achieved the same result.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
The simplest way to deal with it is to view them as "occupied territories"; legally Ukrainian under illegal occupation by Russia. Sanctions can be applied to the region so that they become as pleasant to live in as East Berlin before the wall came down. There are ways that the international community can deal with it without Putin getting a genuine victory for his barbarity.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
Wouldn’t “my bad, soz PB” have been easier to type, and won more friends?
HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"
SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".
( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.
The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).
Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)
You do know the express is a conservative supporting paper don't you
Why would you read it ?
It isn't a "conservative supporting paper" it is a populist comic for the severely politically and socially retarded.
The mystery of why so many voted for Brexit continues to deepen..
It is no mystery to Vladimir Putin He just loves the gullible.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
The simplest way to deal with it is to view them as "occupied territories"; legally Ukrainian under illegal occupation by Russia. Sanctions can be applied to the region so that they become as pleasant to live in as East Berlin before the wall came down. There are ways that the international community can deal with it without Putin getting a genuine victory for his barbarity.
Sure, but what about the Ukrainians? It was one thing to have no choice but to accept the original separatist regions (and de facto secession of Crimea), another to have a Russian corridor blocking their access to the sea across much of the country, which they would be expected to just accept while the international community continues economic punishment.
Of course, it may well be if the Russians are going on the defensive or focusing only on those areas that Ukraine wont have the capability to try to take back those areas.
BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said. Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
However was this not reported yesterday, or maybe even before, and the colonel lost his legs but lived? there might have been 2 similar incidents, but I fear we are overcounting?
I think it’s the same incident but he didn’t survive.
Initial reports: they ran over his legs.
Follow up report: he had his head between his legs....
The maps from JominiW on twitter would suggest that the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade were recently pushed out of Makariv by the Ukrainians.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
Wouldn’t “my bad, soz PB” have been easier to type, and won more friends?
Nope, if you want to be a pedantic whinger double check yourself.
I get no gratitude for posting figures (all of which otherwise were right as was the main point that Wallace was ahead on net favourables). So I will also give no apology if one figure happens to be out
- Cases - UP. But R is down in all regions and ages - seems to be heading back to 1 - In Hospital - UP - Admissions - UP. R is falling a bit, though. - MV beds - UP - Deaths - UP
Looks like we are reaching the peak for BA.2
The week on week increase in cases is coming down quite swiftly, 2 weeks ago it was in the regen of 60% increase 59.7% IIRC, a week ago it was about 40% 3 days ago it dropped below 20% and is now below 10% (8.5%) week on week increase and will surely peek and start falling in the next few days. in fact given the delay between sampling and repotting, and the 3 day typical incubation period before symptoms arrive, its possible that we are at peek infection today.
how quickly if falls and what the equilibrium level of infection is, we have yet to find out, and weather there will be a new variant....
Simply by looking at the trend line, it looks as if this wavelet or whatever it is has peaked, as you suggest.
I’ve actually been quite heartened by how most people have lost interest and just got on with their lives: there was a distinct lack of hysteria on the way up, hopefully to be mirrored by an equal lack of triumphalism on the way down.
This is with us forever. Those who allow themselves to be moved either way by the trend line are missing that key point.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
- Cases - UP. But R is down in all regions and ages - seems to be heading back to 1 - In Hospital - UP - Admissions - UP. R is falling a bit, though. - MV beds - UP - Deaths - UP
Looks like we are reaching the peak for BA.2
The week on week increase in cases is coming down quite swiftly, 2 weeks ago it was in the regen of 60% increase 59.7% IIRC, a week ago it was about 40% 3 days ago it dropped below 20% and is now below 10% (8.5%) week on week increase and will surely peek and start falling in the next few days. in fact given the delay between sampling and repotting, and the 3 day typical incubation period before symptoms arrive, its possible that we are at peek infection today.
how quickly if falls and what the equilibrium level of infection is, we have yet to find out, and weather there will be a new variant....
Simply by looking at the trend line, it looks as if this wavelet or whatever it is has peaked, as you suggest.
I’ve actually been quite heartened by how most people have lost interest and just got on with their lives: there was a distinct lack of hysteria on the way up, hopefully to be mirrored by an equal lack of triumphalism on the way down.
This is with us forever. Those who allow themselves to be moved either way by the trend line are missing that key point.
I can only cope with one existential crisis at a time. Covid's boring now; the risk of the Ukraine war becoming a nuclear armageddon is a much more 'interesting' crisis...
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
Starmer hit 0 with Redfield last week from memory.
I think what HYUFD is not what is in the weekly polling, it’s the YouGov tracker which anyone can go on. I don’t think it’s weighted in the same way but happy to be corrected.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
After the Fall of the Wall, VW rebuilt Skoda as a brand from the ground up.
Pre WWII, Skoda was a heavy engineering concern, famous for the quality and volume of production. Specialities included armour plate and heavy artillery.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
Wouldn’t “my bad, soz PB” have been easier to type, and won more friends?
Nope, if you want to be a pedantic whinger double check yourself.
I get no gratitude for posting figures (all of which otherwise were right as was the main point that Wallace was ahead on net favourables). So I will also give no apology if one figure happens to be out
You don't have the slightest clue why you don't get gratitude, do you?
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
Wouldn’t “my bad, soz PB” have been easier to type, and won more friends?
Nope, if you want to be a pedantic whinger double check yourself.
I get no gratitude for posting figures (all of which otherwise were right as was the main point that Wallace was ahead on net favourables). So I will also give no apology if one figure happens to be out
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
The simplest way to deal with it is to view them as "occupied territories"; legally Ukrainian under illegal occupation by Russia. Sanctions can be applied to the region so that they become as pleasant to live in as East Berlin before the wall came down. There are ways that the international community can deal with it without Putin getting a genuine victory for his barbarity.
Sure, but what about the Ukrainians? It was one thing to have no choice but to accept the original separatist regions (and de facto secession of Crimea), another to have a Russian corridor blocking their access to the sea across much of the country, which they would be expected to just accept while the international community continues economic punishment.
Of course, it may well be if the Russians are going on the defensive or focusing only on those areas that Ukraine wont have the capability to try to take back those areas.
I think the West has to (should?) accept a new cold war with long term sanctions against Russia until there is a change of regime and proper discussions about self determination for those regions takes place. It is probably the only way forward. Ukrainians taking on a defensive and static Russian army is not going to have a positive outcome for them.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
My son's Fabia is very well put together.
I drove a two- stroke Wartburg Knight occasionally around London in the early 1980s. It was reminiscent of the Goldfinger DB5 in as much that it could generate a smoke screen and an oil slick in its wake.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
If the borders returned to pre February 22nd - i.e. Crimea + the separatist regions - then I think there could be "peace", but a lot of the Western sanctions would remain. Plus, of course, Germany would still be rearming, a tonne of new LNG projects would be greenlit and NS2 would never be turned on. And Russian military might would be shown to be a chimera.
What we - and Ukraine - really want is regime change in Moscow, the return of the Donbas, reparations and *maybe* a UN administered plebiscite in Crimea. If that were to happen, then I think sanctions on Russia could be lifted.
The return of the many thousands of Ukrainians shipped off to various parts of Russia would be a high priority too.
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
Err no. A poll which showed that a lot of French people have a more positive view of Boris than Macron. I know that has got to hurt you but it's awfully funny for the rest of us. Also says a lot about your finger on the French pulse.
Then again, plenty of Brits prefer Manu to Johnson.
Who is Manu?
"Manu" Macron - the man who many Brits prefer to Boris Johnson.
HEADLINE "PM’s popularity surges to highest point for 5 months"
SUBHEADING "BORIS JOHNSON'S ranking with the public has continued to go from strength to strength, growing by five percentage points since the previous month".
( small print....Mr Johnson currently has an approval rating of 30 percent according to YouGov - correct as of March 10.
The last time his score was ranked higher was in October 2021 (32 percent).
Meanwhile, the number of people who disapprove of his premiership has dropped by seven points to 63 percent.)
You do know the express is a conservative supporting paper don't you
Why would you read it ?
It isn't a "conservative supporting paper" it is a populist comic for the severely politically and socially retarded.
The mystery of why so many voted for Brexit continues to deepen..
It’s case solved for his sort. We’re all idiots who fell for a series of obvious, Kremlin inspired lies. There were apparently no legitimate reasons to vote to leave, it’s just a proxy for being stupid.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
After the Fall of the Wall, VW rebuilt Skoda as a brand from the ground up.
Pre WWII, Skoda was a heavy engineering concern, famous for the quality and volume of production. Specialities included armour plate and heavy artillery.
Indeed. Part of the reason Hitler wanted the Sudetenland. Access to Pilsen.
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
Err no. A poll which showed that a lot of French people have a more positive view of Boris than Macron. I know that has got to hurt you but it's awfully funny for the rest of us. Also says a lot about your finger on the French pulse.
Then again, plenty of Brits prefer Manu to Johnson.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
My son's Fabia is very well put together.
I drove a two- stroke Wartburg Knight occasionally around London in the early 1980s. It was reminiscent of the Goldfinger DB5 in as much that it could generate a smoke screen and an oil slick in its wake.
Was it the Trabant that could go as fast backwards as it could forwards?
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Being ahead by 13 and not a mere 1 is "no difference"?
The contrast between Macron and Johnson couldn't be more stark. I'd love to see a Brexit poll in the UK. If there are any Leavers still prepared to admit to their stupidity I'd be surprised.
51% of even French voters had a positive view of Johnson last year, more than 10% ahead of Macron.
59% of Le Pen and Les Republicains voters and even 55% of Melenchon voters had a positive view of him.
Can we see the poll? If you ran a Daily Express poll it would tel you that Nadine Dorries is the most lusted after politician in the World! The idea that Johnson's popular in France is GARBAGE!!
It's quoted in the article.
I read it. Those who didn't like Macron and had heard of Johnson preferred him. A poll for any point of view in other words
Err no. A poll which showed that a lot of French people have a more positive view of Boris than Macron. I know that has got to hurt you but it's awfully funny for the rest of us. Also says a lot about your finger on the French pulse.
Then again, plenty of Brits prefer Manu to Johnson.
Familiarity breeds contempt.
No familiarity required for someone so contemptuous.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
It was discussed yesterday, nothing wrong with Skoda's these days, they are basically VW circa 2-3 year old tech. In all seriousness, I actually have no idea if Renault have managed to radically improve the Lada. I am sure somebody might make a gag about Renault's being so bad they actually hold Lada back.
Most car brands now are basically owned / share technology from a very small number of companies.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Good to see you in feisty mood for the weekend. Getting a few sherberts in tonight, I hope.
Note: when I used to work as a bouncer at a club on Fridays and Saturdays the Fridays were worse by a million miles as everyone used to come straight from work pissed up and lairy.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
If the borders returned to pre February 22nd - i.e. Crimea + the separatist regions - then I think there could be "peace", but a lot of the Western sanctions would remain. Plus, of course, Germany would still be rearming, a tonne of new LNG projects would be greenlit and NS2 would never be turned on. And Russian military might would be shown to be a chimera.
What we - and Ukraine - really want is regime change in Moscow, the return of the Donbas, reparations and *maybe* a UN administered plebiscite in Crimea. If that were to happen, then I think sanctions on Russia could be lifted.
The return of the many thousands of Ukrainians shipped off to various parts of Russia would be a high priority too.
I think a population swap based on where people want to live would have to be included - there must be some in the breakaway Donbass regions who would not want to stay if those areas reverted to Kyiv. And likewise, some of those who are now in Russia would want to return. Could be like Partition on a smaller scale, or Greece/Turkey in 1923.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
It was discussed yesterday, nothing wrong with Skoda's these days, they are basically VW circa 2-3 year old tech. In all seriousness, I actually have no idea if Renault have managed to radically improve the Lada.
Most car brands now are basically owned / share technology from a very small number of companies.
My limited experience of driving Renaults leads me to the belief that it is unlikely and even possible that Lada might have improved Renault.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Does the H in your name stand for Hebblethwaite?
That reminds me, I've never seen an explanation of what HYUFD stands for.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
It was discussed yesterday, nothing wrong with Skoda's these days, they are basically VW circa 2-3 year old tech. In all seriousness, I actually have no idea if Renault have managed to radically improve the Lada.
Most car brands now are basically owned / share technology from a very small number of companies.
The only thing wrong with Skodas is that, like all todays cars, you have to have a degree in computing to work out what's wrong when something actually does go wrong! There's an electric Fabia coming shortly, if it hasn't already.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Does the H in your name stand for Hebblethwaite?
That reminds me, I've never seen an explanation of what HYUFD stands for.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
The simplest way to deal with it is to view them as "occupied territories"; legally Ukrainian under illegal occupation by Russia. Sanctions can be applied to the region so that they become as pleasant to live in as East Berlin before the wall came down. There are ways that the international community can deal with it without Putin getting a genuine victory for his barbarity.
Sure, but what about the Ukrainians? It was one thing to have no choice but to accept the original separatist regions (and de facto secession of Crimea), another to have a Russian corridor blocking their access to the sea across much of the country, which they would be expected to just accept while the international community continues economic punishment.
Of course, it may well be if the Russians are going on the defensive or focusing only on those areas that Ukraine wont have the capability to try to take back those areas.
I think the West has to (should?) accept a new cold war with long term sanctions against Russia until there is a change of regime and proper discussions about self determination for those regions takes place. It is probably the only way forward. Ukrainians taking on a defensive and static Russian army is not going to have a positive outcome for them.
My point the other day was the a new cold war (and I don't disagree that it might be necessary) is a godsend to the generals. As much spending as they want for a war they will never have to fight.
We came (are still) close to having the whole Cold War arms race bluff called and it is not a pleasant thought.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
I am sceptical of weasel words. I win the lottery jackpot up to 60% of the times I enter, for example.
In the 80's a Skip was called a Lada convertable
Time to dust off all of the old Lada / Skoda jokes....
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
My son's Fabia is very well put together.
I drove a two- stroke Wartburg Knight occasionally around London in the early 1980s. It was reminiscent of the Goldfinger DB5 in as much that it could generate a smoke screen and an oil slick in its wake.
Was it the Trabant that could go as fast backwards as it could forwards?
I've never driven a Trabbie, so I am not sure.
A car made of resin impregnated recycled cotton wool strikes me as being unsafe at any speed, forward or reverse.
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Does the H in your name stand for Hebblethwaite?
That reminds me, I've never seen an explanation of what HYUFD stands for.
March 25 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war.
That's pretty massive, if true. That would suggest that the Russian army was returning to the East and the South.
Of course, it makes things harder for Ukraine in many ways. It means that the Russian army is defending, which it will find easier. And it potentially makes it harder for Ukraine to garner the same amount of international support.
I also suspect that Russia will want to maintain the Southern coastline between the Crimea and the Donbass, which the Ukrainians can never accept.
The danger for Ukraine is that the Russians dig in, and the Ukrainians don't have the strength to dislodge them.
On the other hand, it does suggest that the danger of global nuclear war is receding somewhat.
Sadly I think if the Ukrainians think the West will aid them in trying to regain Donbas they will be surprised. New line of ceasefire would be pushed i reckon.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
While that may be true of the Donbas, I think the real question is the coastline and Mauripol.
True (though more tricky on the issue of bits claimed by the 'republics' which they were not holding prior to this phase, which includes Mauripol). I think the question of the coast is where NATO and allies will split - some will not have stomach to see Ukrainians inflicting the damage as they seek to dig out Russian defenders, and will suggest perhaps now is the time to stop and talk as the Russian demands lessen (even if felt to be still unacceptable).
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
The simplest way to deal with it is to view them as "occupied territories"; legally Ukrainian under illegal occupation by Russia. Sanctions can be applied to the region so that they become as pleasant to live in as East Berlin before the wall came down. There are ways that the international community can deal with it without Putin getting a genuine victory for his barbarity.
Sure, but what about the Ukrainians? It was one thing to have no choice but to accept the original separatist regions (and de facto secession of Crimea), another to have a Russian corridor blocking their access to the sea across much of the country, which they would be expected to just accept while the international community continues economic punishment.
Of course, it may well be if the Russians are going on the defensive or focusing only on those areas that Ukraine wont have the capability to try to take back those areas.
Putting my cynical hat on, I can see several reasons why the West is not going to be in a rush to push Ukraine into talks and will continue the rearmament:
1. The longer this goes on, the longer Russia military capability is degraded, potentially permanently and significantly. It is also diminishing Russia's use of military exports to win friends;
2. The Russia conflict is a boon for those who want to push ESG and / or energy security, particularly the case in Europe;
3. It can be used by politicians to deflect attention away from their own actions (look at Biden claiming the gas price surge is down to the crisis);
4. The West has got its hands on a significantly large proportion of Russia's sovereign wealth and / or possibly private assets.
For the US, in particular, the conflict is a big plus:
1. It has got the Europeans spending more on defence and taking NATO seriously - Germany the big win here;
2. It is taking Europe away from dependence on Russian energy (and, helpfully, likely to make Europe more dependent on US LNG long-term);
3. It has probably weakened Russia permanently in power and status (the latter in particular);
4. It has sent a very powerful signal to China as to the risks involved in an invasion of Taiwan and / or the likely limitations of Chinese military forces (given the state of Russian technology etc in Ukraine);
5. It has accelerated reshoring / the bringing back home of supply chains
That’s settled then. Trip to spec savers for HY tomorrow.
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
Who cares? It makes zero difference to the main point that Wallace is still ahead of any other senior politician including Sunak and Johnson and Starmer.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
"Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway."
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
Sod off.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Does the H in your name stand for Hebblethwaite?
That reminds me, I've never seen an explanation of what HYUFD stands for.
It’s something to do with a horse, he’s a horsey fellow like me
Comments
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/25/politics/thomas-released/index.html
“ Other than the immigrants bit, it's basically an identical platform to Melanchon. “
I believe to be spot on.
Except for two points. Melenchon does also echo the Nationalistic “on est chez nous” slogan of Le Pen, and if anything has more of a Germanophobic back catalogue than Le Pen. Secondly, in a run off with Macron it will still be clear which of the 2 candidates in pro EU and which is by far the more sceptical.
This is a proper Political Betting analysis day on PB today 🙂
Old age doesn’t come alone 😎
This is why 'encirclement' per se is not the relevant factor in the muddy season. Think more about networks - hubs and links. What are the most important hubs and links to crash in order to crash the entire resupply network. It seems the Ukrainians have grasped this, and the Russians are only now grasping it, rather late in the day.
Which might have made sense as a limited russian aim from the start except they've clearly sought a lot more than that.
And then where next?
Can they turn the tide fast enough to stop any other city from receiving that scale of damage?
- Cases - UP. But R is down in all regions and ages - seems to be heading back to 1
- In Hospital - UP
- Admissions - UP. R is falling a bit, though.
- MV beds - UP
- Deaths - UP
Looks like we are reaching the peak for BA.2
Russia's main objective now is securing the Donbas, says Gen Sergei Rudskoy, operations chief of the general staff. Quite an important interview, combining a mixture of insight & post-rationalisation of the campaign's failures
https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1507391163602452485
Sherlock Holmes: Oh, it's all a bit of a blur, detective inspector. I
lost count.
But as you say there's surely no way the Ukrainians stop trying to take back such a large expanse of coast.
What do you call a Skoda with two exhausts....a wheelbarrow.
How do you double the value of a Lada....fill it up with petrol.
What do you call a Lada in the summer? An oven. What do you call a Lada in the winter? A freezer.
How do you avoid speeding tickets?...Buy a Lada.
What do you call a Lada at the top of a hill?....A miracle.
A more complete list...
https://medium.com/wagonlog/lada-jokes-3bd7bf92487b
That means the PM, chancellor and the country's top civil servant are all part of the Met's inquiries
https://www.ft.com/content/783da7d8-8141-4e69-84bf-1d1f8e605800
One senior Whitehall figure on Case:
“Simon is totally compromised, he’s worried about being fined by the police — it’s widely known he is being investigated. He’s struggling to lead the civil service too, I don’t see him lasting [in his role].”
https://www.ft.com/content/783da7d8-8141-4e69-84bf-1d1f8e605800
how quickly if falls and what the equilibrium level of infection is, we have yet to find out, and weather there will be a new variant....
Follow up report: he had his head between his legs....
What we - and Ukraine - really want is regime change in Moscow, the return of the Donbas, reparations and *maybe* a UN administered plebiscite in Crimea. If that were to happen, then I think sanctions on Russia could be lifted.
Fuck off, you pathetic Russia-excusing twat. Civilians - people like you or I - are dying in Mariupol. The fascists are the people that are killing them.
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has dismissed an appeal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for weapons and tougher sanctions against Russia, saying it would be "against Hungary's interests".
Orban rejected Zelensky's demands at the European Council "because they are contrary to the interests of Hungary", Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said in a statement.
"Hungary wants to stay out of this war, so it will not allow the transfer of arms and weapons to Ukraine," Kovacs said.
Orban says that the ethnic-Hungarian minority in the west of Ukraine would be threatened if Hungary sent weapons to Kyiv.
I am not retired like BigG who can spend all day double checking every minute detail of everything he posts.
Not that it made the slightest difference to anything anyway.
The president - who is in Europe for talks with allies - did not spell out what that might mean.
Asked whether the use of chemical weapons by Russia's Vladimir Putin would prompt a military response from Nato, Mr Biden replied that it "would trigger a response in kind".
"We would respond if he uses it. The nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use," he said.
It’s inching closer to having to act the longer the war lasts, isn’t it?
Maybe similarly, Andrea had two votes in the EU Ref. Mind you not voting at all would have expended less effort and achieved the same result.
I did once walk past a Trabant as we were both travelling UP a hil!
Of course, it may well be if the Russians are going on the defensive or focusing only on those areas that Ukraine wont have the capability to try to take back those areas.
I get no gratitude for posting figures (all of which otherwise were right as was the main point that Wallace was ahead on net favourables). So I will also give no apology if one figure happens to be out
I’ve actually been quite heartened by how most people have lost interest and just got on with their lives: there was a distinct lack of hysteria on the way up, hopefully to be mirrored by an equal lack of triumphalism on the way down.
This is with us forever. Those who allow themselves to be moved either way by the trend line are missing that key point.
(Admittedly, that one works better in aural rather than written form.)
Now then, now then. Posting polling falsehoods on a betting site reliant on accurate polling detail is probably as serious as it gets.
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1507354727910105091
SKS fans please explain
I think what HYUFD is not what is in the weekly polling, it’s the YouGov tracker which anyone can go on. I don’t think it’s weighted in the same way but happy to be corrected.
It made no difference whatsoever to the main point I was posting about that Wallace was still ahead which was correct on both figures.
In both cases Starmer was also in negative territory but still ahead of Johnson so again no difference.
It was not intentional and one minor miss as I posted favourable rather than net favourable on Starmer, it made near zero difference to anything, so no I will not be apologising to any of the whingers on here.
Pre WWII, Skoda was a heavy engineering concern, famous for the quality and volume of production. Specialities included armour plate and heavy artillery.
I drove a two- stroke Wartburg Knight occasionally around London in the early 1980s. It was reminiscent of the Goldfinger DB5 in as much that it could generate a smoke screen and an oil slick in its wake.
Stats for Lefties
@LeftieStats
🚨 NEW: Starmer's favourability falls to -21.
✅ Favourable: 33% (-1)
❌ Unfavourable: 54% (+4)
Via
@YouGov
, 23-24 Mar (+/- since 22-23 Mar)
Most car brands now are basically owned / share technology from a very small number of companies.
When Blair promised them they'd be 20 points clear if they got rid of Corbyn, do you think that's what he had in mind?
Note: when I used to work as a bouncer at a club on Fridays and Saturdays the Fridays were worse by a million miles as everyone used to come straight from work pissed up and lairy.
There's an electric Fabia coming shortly, if it hasn't already.
We came (are still) close to having the whole Cold War arms race bluff called and it is not a pleasant thought.
A car made of resin impregnated recycled cotton wool strikes me as being unsafe at any speed, forward or reverse.
Starmer and Johnson have always scored lower on these
1. The longer this goes on, the longer Russia military capability is degraded, potentially permanently and significantly. It is also diminishing Russia's use of military exports to win friends;
2. The Russia conflict is a boon for those who want to push ESG and / or energy security, particularly the case in Europe;
3. It can be used by politicians to deflect attention away from their own actions (look at Biden claiming the gas price surge is down to the crisis);
4. The West has got its hands on a significantly large proportion of Russia's sovereign wealth and / or possibly private assets.
For the US, in particular, the conflict is a big plus:
1. It has got the Europeans spending more on defence and taking NATO seriously - Germany the big win here;
2. It is taking Europe away from dependence on Russian energy (and, helpfully, likely to make Europe more dependent on US LNG long-term);
3. It has probably weakened Russia permanently in power and status (the latter in particular);
4. It has sent a very powerful signal to China as to the risks involved in an invasion of Taiwan and / or the likely limitations of Chinese military forces (given the state of Russian technology etc in Ukraine);
5. It has accelerated reshoring / the bringing back home of supply chains