I know it's inconsequential, but that tweet of Sunak's with the glossy photo celebrating the 5p fuel duty cut seems to me utterly bizarre and pointless. The rightful caption should be:
Man at garage fills car with petrol. Fascinating.
I filled mine two weeks ago and it is now 22p a litre more expensive, taking 5p off is like farting in a hurricane.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
I ran over 2,700 miles last year. A pair of running trainers probably lasts 1,000 miles at most - less if you want them to remain comfortable. Tops and shorts get worn and torn, especially when running off-road. Many running tops are little more than an array of holes sewn together, and get damaged easily.
I find I cannot wear many trainers because I have metal in an ankle - if the shoe touches that, it can cause my agony. Therefore when I find a pair of shoes or boots that works, I tend to buy three or four pairs at once and store them.
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
I dont believe everything news agencies say.... esp Tass. Not wanting to be controversial but longer term victory regarding Ukraine involves persuading `normal' Russians that their current govt is plain wrong and that west is not an ogre out to crush their livelihoods/wellbeing. I support sanctions against oligarchs etc but stoking anti western sentiment (by dis-engaging with Russian voters/citizens/civil society) is likely to be counterproductive - in some ways we should be reaching out to down-trodden Russians demonstrating that we are not their enemy (and highlighting the plight of Ukrainians at the same time)
Indeed.
But the point is that that is what it is possible for them to claim, and they are reporting a statement from a business organisation in France.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
Yesterday's budget seemed to me to suffer from expectations management. Rishi simply cannot protect us from the squeeze in living standards that come with current energy prices. It's impossible. He also has painfully overstretched public finances as a result of the pandemic and the generous support that the government provided during it. That meant that even the little he did do was more in the token gesture territory.
But the biggest problem, by far, is inflation. The BoE monetary policy committee has really screwed up here allowing a domestic bubble of inflation that they could have restrained with earlier interest rate rises to combine with inflationary international pressures from fuel and other disruptions to world trade to get seriously out of control. This is going to cause chaos throughout our economy. The sharpest fall in living standards since 1956 will force industrial action, particularly in the private sector where unions are strongest, throughout the year as workers try to limit the damage. Fiscal drift will push the effective tax rates of many ever higher. It's going to be a tough year and those who bet on a Tory lead in March are on a loser.
Private sector? I would've thought the opposite.
I was plugging the 8.0% inflation figure into various bits of modelling yesterday and it's completely altered what poverty is going to look like this year (see similar work by JRF/Resolution foundation).
Most of the people in my team have never experienced inflation like this; have to change our thinking somewhat.
What a beautiful morning, sunny and calm, 11C - warmest morning of the year so far - the sun glinting off a still sea with just a thin layer of mist so that the waiting container ship, with the latest delivery of Amazon tat from China, looks half submerged in a sea of milk.
Beautiful blue skies in London, too, a perfect day for a walk through Green Park on the way to work. London really comes alive when the sun returns. Had lunch in the garden yesterday, too. It's hard not to feel chipper on a spring morning like this.
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
I know it's inconsequential, but that tweet of Sunak's with the glossy photo celebrating the 5p fuel duty cut seems to me utterly bizarre and pointless. The rightful caption should be:
Man at garage fills car with petrol. Fascinating.
The choice of a Kia Rio was strange. I wonder if it was focus grouped.
It should really have been a 55 plate Mk.2 Focus with a cracked windscreen and big fucking poppy on it for Red Wall appeal.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I’ve always maintained London is a great place to visit but a pretty hard place to live. Londoners I know would argue about having great theatres and galleries - but when probed on what the last play or exhibition they had seen more often than not it was “the last one you dragged me to when you visited”. Very happy to live within an hour of London, but also very happy not to be living there.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
For quality of life, what I have had since leaving London far exceeds what I had when I was there in many ways - but only since we had a family. Being young in London when I was young in London was epic. You could even afford to buy your own place.
I agree. I spent thirty years in London and represented part of it for most of that, but you don't need to live there to enjoy it, and having your life savings tied up in expensive property makes no sense once you don't need to be there for work. Having left London I love visiting but would never now move back there, even if tons of money dropped out of the sky; once you've enjoyed fresh air and countryside and scenery, living surrounded by brick and concrete would be claustrophobic. And I probably get more out of the city, in a year, in terms of its leisure and retail offerings, than I did when I worked full time and lived there.
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
OK, I am officially stupid. Why does Putin want rubles which he can print anyway anyway?
I'm *guessing* - and others will know better - but in order to pay in rubles, you need to have rubles. Therefore you need to sell something to Russia that they will give you rubles for, so you can pay for the gas 'n oil in rubles. This will create a demand for the ruble, which will increase its value. It also means you need to trade with Russia.
If you pay in dollars, you can get them from many trades around the world.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Same here re t shirts from entering umpteen charity cycle rides when I was younger. I have gardening/cycling/diy t shirts for a lifetime.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
I'm not really that interested in the party political angles at this stage - we're 2 years out and a lot can and probably will happen between now and then.
There is worse to come but there ways through this. We need to invest £lots in so many areas and there are a lot of people who need better jobs or a job at all they can manage with their childcare responsibilities. We need to seriously uprate our defence capabilities - there are things that could be done with imagination.
And there is the big problem for this wretched government. There is no imagination. No plan. No ideas. Can't even admit to reality because that demolishes the narrative of lies they rely on.
Yesterday's budget seemed to me to suffer from expectations management. Rishi simply cannot protect us from the squeeze in living standards that come with current energy prices. It's impossible. He also has painfully overstretched public finances as a result of the pandemic and the generous support that the government provided during it. That meant that even the little he did do was more in the token gesture territory.
But the biggest problem, by far, is inflation. The BoE monetary policy committee has really screwed up here allowing a domestic bubble of inflation that they could have restrained with earlier interest rate rises to combine with inflationary international pressures from fuel and other disruptions to world trade to get seriously out of control. This is going to cause chaos throughout our economy. The sharpest fall in living standards since 1956 will force industrial action, particularly in the private sector where unions are strongest, throughout the year as workers try to limit the damage. Fiscal drift will push the effective tax rates of many ever higher. It's going to be a tough year and those who bet on a Tory lead in March are on a loser.
Private sector? I would've thought the opposite.
I was plugging the 8.0% inflation figure into various bits of modelling yesterday and it's completely altered what poverty is going to look like this year (see similar work by JRF/Resolution foundation).
Most of the people in my team have never experienced inflation like this; have to change our thinking somewhat.
Quite what the NHS pay round will be like is unclear. Looks like a real terms pay cut of 5% or so.
And there is the big problem for this wretched government. There is no imagination. No plan. No ideas. Can't even admit to reality because that demolishes the narrative of lies they rely on.
OBR sticks with forecast that #Brexit will cause 4% long run hit to GDP, and 15% fall in total imports & exports.
Adds "None" of new FTAs OR regulatory changes will have "material impact on our forecast"
I know it's inconsequential, but that tweet of Sunak's with the glossy photo celebrating the 5p fuel duty cut seems to me utterly bizarre and pointless. The rightful caption should be:
Man at garage fills car with petrol. Fascinating.
I filled mine two weeks ago and it is now 22p a litre more expensive, taking 5p off is like farting in a hurricane.
I paid 165ppl yesterday. Awful - and thats cheap compared to some. If that now drops to 160ppl am I happy? Hell no. And will it stay there? Prices already on the rise. Its £3bn burned for zero benefit.
A strange thing about high rates of fuel duty - they insulate you from oil price rises. In a low duty environment when oil gets 40% more expensive your pump price will follow closely. In a high duty environment the rise is much less as a bigger proportion of what you pay is a fixed rate - duty.
With oil prices so volatile and a clear risk of continued increases, a 5p duty cut not only gets negated in 5 minutes but makes future pump price rises more acute. But he got a photo with a petrol pump, so...
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
"Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one."
I heartedly agree. Appalling budget, which seems to be unravelling within 24 hours. Nothing for the struggling except some waffle about your local council might help if you are totally destitute.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
i grew up in a village right on the edge of Sherwood Forest so Sherwood Forest is my fondest place in the world I think - a place to go to to relax and think as I know it inside out and can go to bits of it where you rarely see anyone else all day. Must say though that the wider surrounding area of Mansfield and Ashfield have no sentimentality to me as I found them insular and negative places in the main (always individual exceptions of course) . Love London where i spent my young adulthood working and love Bradford where I went to university. Abroad , my spiritual homes are New York , Las Vegas ,Canada (well the bits I have been to ) and Romania .
Generally the type of places that leave me cold are suburbia -I like inner cities, like countryside but find the in-between boring
Spring in the hills outside Impruneta; autumn in the ancient woodlands of the Summer Country
Yesterday's budget seemed to me to suffer from expectations management. Rishi simply cannot protect us from the squeeze in living standards that come with current energy prices. It's impossible. He also has painfully overstretched public finances as a result of the pandemic and the generous support that the government provided during it. That meant that even the little he did do was more in the token gesture territory.
But the biggest problem, by far, is inflation. The BoE monetary policy committee has really screwed up here allowing a domestic bubble of inflation that they could have restrained with earlier interest rate rises to combine with inflationary international pressures from fuel and other disruptions to world trade to get seriously out of control. This is going to cause chaos throughout our economy. The sharpest fall in living standards since 1956 will force industrial action, particularly in the private sector where unions are strongest, throughout the year as workers try to limit the damage. Fiscal drift will push the effective tax rates of many ever higher. It's going to be a tough year and those who bet on a Tory lead in March are on a loser.
Agree, although I think you mean public sector where unions operate not private.
The other wrinkle is if Russia wants paying in Rubles it means the contracts have to be renegotiated, not necessarily to Russia’s advantage (lower amounts, shorter terms).
Yesterday's budget seemed to me to suffer from expectations management. Rishi simply cannot protect us from the squeeze in living standards that come with current energy prices. It's impossible. He also has painfully overstretched public finances as a result of the pandemic and the generous support that the government provided during it. That meant that even the little he did do was more in the token gesture territory.
But the biggest problem, by far, is inflation. The BoE monetary policy committee has really screwed up here allowing a domestic bubble of inflation that they could have restrained with earlier interest rate rises to combine with inflationary international pressures from fuel and other disruptions to world trade to get seriously out of control. This is going to cause chaos throughout our economy. The sharpest fall in living standards since 1956 will force industrial action, particularly in the private sector where unions are strongest, throughout the year as workers try to limit the damage. Fiscal drift will push the effective tax rates of many ever higher. It's going to be a tough year and those who bet on a Tory lead in March are on a loser.
Private sector? I would've thought the opposite.
I was plugging the 8.0% inflation figure into various bits of modelling yesterday and it's completely altered what poverty is going to look like this year (see similar work by JRF/Resolution foundation).
Most of the people in my team have never experienced inflation like this; have to change our thinking somewhat.
Quite what the NHS pay round will be like is unclear. Looks like a real terms pay cut of 5% or so.
London Underground announced an 8.4% pay rise.
Love to know where that’s coming from giving that they need a subsidy from the government to survive..
I know it's inconsequential, but that tweet of Sunak's with the glossy photo celebrating the 5p fuel duty cut seems to me utterly bizarre and pointless. The rightful caption should be:
Man at garage fills car with petrol. Fascinating.
I filled mine two weeks ago and it is now 22p a litre more expensive, taking 5p off is like farting in a hurricane.
I paid 165ppl yesterday. Awful - and thats cheap compared to some. If that now drops to 160ppl am I happy? Hell no. And will it stay there? Prices already on the rise. Its £3bn burned for zero benefit.
A strange thing about high rates of fuel duty - they insulate you from oil price rises. In a low duty environment when oil gets 40% more expensive your pump price will follow closely. In a high duty environment the rise is much less as a bigger proportion of what you pay is a fixed rate - duty.
With oil prices so volatile and a clear risk of continued increases, a 5p duty cut not only gets negated in 5 minutes but makes future pump price rises more acute. But he got a photo with a petrol pump, so...
And there is the big problem for this wretched government. There is no imagination. No plan. No ideas. Can't even admit to reality because that demolishes the narrative of lies they rely on.
OBR sticks with forecast that #Brexit will cause 4% long run hit to GDP, and 15% fall in total imports & exports.
Adds "None" of new FTAs OR regulatory changes will have "material impact on our forecast"
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
The other wrinkle is if Russia wants paying in Rubles it means the contracts have to be renegotiated, not necessarily to Russia’s advantage (lower amounts, shorter terms).
Yep - the downside of the short term gain is that Germany can say we want nothing in say 3 years time and Russia can’t complain.
The upside of changing contracts now though is that Germany and co can’t be sure whether they will be able to source everything elsewhere in x years time so will need to ask for longer terms now than they might do in 6 months time once they now how quickly they can change things.
The other wrinkle is if Russia wants paying in Rubles it means the contracts have to be renegotiated, not necessarily to Russia’s advantage (lower amounts, shorter terms).
It only works if Russia has a firm grip on domestic inflation. Tricky prospect in the circs.
"the year ahead will be the worst anybody can remember. It will be catastrophic, appalling, and could destroy the Conservative Party and its reputation for economic competence for a generation."
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
"Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one."
I heartedly agree. Appalling budget, which seems to be unravelling within 24 hours. Nothing for the struggling except some waffle about your local council might help if you are totally destitute.
Where the Tories will really really get into trouble is their response to that struggle. In Big Dog world he is Amazing. He is Building Back Better. He is Transforming lives with his Brexit. So when people start to whine it can't be true - which is why so many of his dispatch box lies are the kind that has the ONS writing to him demanding that he stop lying.
We know that half the Tory party are amoral rat fucks and the other 40% truly nasty human beings - and barely 10% who are actually decent. We have already seen - repeatedly - their response to human suffering. They will deny. Then sneer. Then belittle. Then mock.
People generally don't like being told they are stupid. That their lived experience must be wrong - or if it is true must be their own fault. So many Tory MPs are too stupid or amoral rat fuckish to know how their constituents live or think (look how many simply mass block people who dissent on social media). So for me the one thing that will the unifying factor in the election when it comes is the need to remove as many Tory MPs as possible as a moral crusade. Won't be a massive endorsement for whatever the party is who wins, just a vote against *them*.
We recently looked at the swing voting extremes of 97. I expect the same in 24 (albeit not with a landslide win backdrop).
"the year ahead will be the worst anybody can remember. It will be catastrophic, appalling, and could destroy the Conservative Party and its reputation for economic competence for a generation."
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Same here re t shirts from entering umpteen charity cycle rides when I was younger. I have gardening/cycling/diy t shirts for a lifetime.
For me it's academic conferences - with lockdown I have been resurrecting T-shirts from three decades for walkies, diy, hobbies and generally being at home.
Lovely sunny weather up here. Mrs C spotted a nuthatch in its nest hole or food cache hole in a beech tree near the house. A new species to Scotland - has now colonised much of the country from the 1990s onwards.
And there is the big problem for this wretched government. There is no imagination. No plan. No ideas. Can't even admit to reality because that demolishes the narrative of lies they rely on.
OBR sticks with forecast that #Brexit will cause 4% long run hit to GDP, and 15% fall in total imports & exports.
Adds "None" of new FTAs OR regulatory changes will have "material impact on our forecast"
This kind of analysis has to be seen in the context of inequality, living standards etc for people in the lower income deciles.
GDP isn't everything.
It isn't, no. But in a shrinking economy, you need active measures to prevent wealth concentration, and this Government is not exactly renowned for their redistributive behaviour.
Listening to him on Today Programme, suddenly now clear Sunak not only missed his chance at the top job, dithering over taking on the PM, he's now a real liability for the Tories considering a GE against the biggest cost of living squeeze since the war. https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1506907882247368710
The tetchiness is interesting. He's been terribly nice so far, but then he's been given a very easy ride. The last 24 hours he's finally received a proper twatting. And suddenly he's not so nice. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1506908615768256514
Most Tories we spoke to last night were cautiously optimistic about Sunak's Spring Statement. Suspect that's rather melted away now think tanks + newspapers have considered the situation in the round and concluded this year is going to be... utterly shit. https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1506908465360478210
Is BoZo going to sack another chancellor and promote someone like Nadine who will promise to splash the cash regardless of the consequences?
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
i grew up in a village right on the edge of Sherwood Forest so Sherwood Forest is my fondest place in the world I think - a place to go to to relax and think as I know it inside out and can go to bits of it where you rarely see anyone else all day. Must say though that the wider surrounding area of Mansfield and Ashfield have no sentimentality to me as I found them insular and negative places in the main (always individual exceptions of course) . Love London where i spent my young adulthood working and love Bradford where I went to university. Abroad , my spiritual homes are New York , Las Vegas ,Canada (well the bits I have been to ) and Romania .
Generally the type of places that leave me cold are suburbia -I like inner cities, like countryside but find the in-between boring
I grew up on the Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire border and all that country up through the villages and into the Dales feels like home, even though my family moved away nearly 40 years ago.
Seems there's a fair few of us about from Nottinghamshire and its surroundings. I grew up in Newark and now live just over the border in Lincolnshire. I am old enough to remember when you could still climb inside the Major Oak but to get to it you had to follow the safe path down through the army training ground.
I deeply detest cities and couldn't live in one these days.
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
"Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one."
I heartedly agree. Appalling budget, which seems to be unravelling within 24 hours. Nothing for the struggling except some waffle about your local council might help if you are totally destitute.
Where the Tories will really really get into trouble is their response to that struggle. In Big Dog world he is Amazing. He is Building Back Better. He is Transforming lives with his Brexit. So when people start to whine it can't be true - which is why so many of his dispatch box lies are the kind that has the ONS writing to him demanding that he stop lying.
We know that half the Tory party are amoral rat fucks and the other 40% truly nasty human beings - and barely 10% who are actually decent. We have already seen - repeatedly - their response to human suffering. They will deny. Then sneer. Then belittle. Then mock.
People generally don't like being told they are stupid. That their lived experience must be wrong - or if it is true must be their own fault. So many Tory MPs are too stupid or amoral rat fuckish to know how their constituents live or think (look how many simply mass block people who dissent on social media). So for me the one thing that will the unifying factor in the election when it comes is the need to remove as many Tory MPs as possible as a moral crusade. Won't be a massive endorsement for whatever the party is who wins, just a vote against *them*.
We recently looked at the swing voting extremes of 97. I expect the same in 24 (albeit not with a landslide win backdrop).
You have a case but you lost me with your language
You are better than this and make a much better case when you tone down some of your language
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre
The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.
Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
I loved Mexico - so much more interesting than it’s rather dull northern neighbour. Some highlights - driving over apparently deserted countryside where suddenly a huge “f*ck you” catholic church built by the Spanish from stone taken from demolished temples rises up to show the locals who is in charge. Then a hill town near San Cristobal de las Casas where the locals had a very robust attitude to said imposed Saints - who they prayed to for rain, and if they didn’t deliver they were put out into the fields to learn their lessons. And then the food….
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
Mexico City is one of my favourite five cities in the world. The colours the buildings the zoo the talent.... A hidden gem......
Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.
I've noted before that the quickest and cheapest way to boost defence capability is to increase the amount of munitions held in reserve. Big ticket items take years.
Yes - one of the first items identified for the €100bn urgent boost was €20bn to build up munition stocks, amongst other things.
I think our lot have been careful only to go for things where we have good stocks. Allegedly we had 20k of NLAWs, and have 6k or so of StarStreak (but only around 50 launch systems).
"the year ahead will be the worst anybody can remember. It will be catastrophic, appalling, and could destroy the Conservative Party and its reputation for economic competence for a generation."
Heath - telegraph
Seems JRM was right about partygate being froth. Good old fashioned economic incompetence will do for bojo.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre
The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.
Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?
A lot of that money went to corporate coffers. Not human beings. Saved the companies from liquidation and having to pay redundancy, in other words their respoinsibilities under law. It was primarily a corporate support scheme. And not well policed.
"the year ahead will be the worst anybody can remember. It will be catastrophic, appalling, and could destroy the Conservative Party and its reputation for economic competence for a generation."
Listening to him on Today Programme, suddenly now clear Sunak not only missed his chance at the top job, dithering over taking on the PM, he's now a real liability for the Tories considering a GE against the biggest cost of living squeeze since the war. https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1506907882247368710
The tetchiness is interesting. He's been terribly nice so far, but then he's been given a very easy ride. The last 24 hours he's finally received a proper twatting. And suddenly he's not so nice. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1506908615768256514
Most Tories we spoke to last night were cautiously optimistic about Sunak's Spring Statement. Suspect that's rather melted away now think tanks + newspapers have considered the situation in the round and concluded this year is going to be... utterly shit. https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1506908465360478210
Is BoZo going to sack another chancellor and promote someone like Nadine who will promise to splash the cash regardless of the consequences?
No more Mr Nice Guy, or subservient media telling him he’s Mr Nice Guy.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre
The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.
Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?
You simply do not understand that those suffering the most are the disadvantaged and those on benefits
Rishi admitted he had reserves of near £10 billion and he should have been more generous to those who have little or nothing
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.
You entirely miss the point
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
"Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one."
I heartedly agree. Appalling budget, which seems to be unravelling within 24 hours. Nothing for the struggling except some waffle about your local council might help if you are totally destitute.
Where the Tories will really really get into trouble is their response to that struggle. In Big Dog world he is Amazing. He is Building Back Better. He is Transforming lives with his Brexit. So when people start to whine it can't be true - which is why so many of his dispatch box lies are the kind that has the ONS writing to him demanding that he stop lying.
We know that half the Tory party are amoral rat fucks and the other 40% truly nasty human beings - and barely 10% who are actually decent. We have already seen - repeatedly - their response to human suffering. They will deny. Then sneer. Then belittle. Then mock.
People generally don't like being told they are stupid. That their lived experience must be wrong - or if it is true must be their own fault. So many Tory MPs are too stupid or amoral rat fuckish to know how their constituents live or think (look how many simply mass block people who dissent on social media). So for me the one thing that will the unifying factor in the election when it comes is the need to remove as many Tory MPs as possible as a moral crusade. Won't be a massive endorsement for whatever the party is who wins, just a vote against *them*.
We recently looked at the swing voting extremes of 97. I expect the same in 24 (albeit not with a landslide win backdrop).
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
Glad you enjoyed it, and good luck to the three of you.
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
I loved Mexico - so much more interesting rather than it’s rather dull northern neighbour. Some highlights - driving over apparently deserted countryside where suddenly a huge “f*ck you” catholic church built by the Spanish from stone taken from demolished temples rises up to show the locals who is in charge. Then a hill town near San Cristobal de las Casas where the locals had a very robust attitude to said imposed Saints - who they prayed to for rain, and if they didn’t deliver they were put out into the fields to learn their lessons. And then the food….
Best of luck to you three!
Hah, we're in San Cristobal de las Casas at the moment, just went to the cheap, but actually pretty good wine place and drank myself silly while my wife watched drinking water. The cafés here are on another level compared to the rest of Mexico, again, an absolute must. We flew into Tuxtla Gutierrez from Oaxaca and then a taxi into San Cristobal for not a lot of money. Just wary of the water here, we're in a pretty nice hotel that has water purifiers for everything they do including showers but elsewhere I've heard some pretty awful stories.
It would be a huge risk for Lukashenko, even Putin, to throw them in. There could easily be a mutiny and even if they went all in who's going to be controlling Minsk whilst they are away?
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
I ran over 2,700 miles last year. A pair of running trainers probably lasts 1,000 miles at most - less if you want them to remain comfortable. Tops and shorts get worn and torn, especially when running off-road. Many running tops are little more than an array of holes sewn together, and get damaged easily.
I find I cannot wear many trainers because I have metal in an ankle - if the shoe touches that, it can cause my agony. Therefore when I find a pair of shoes or boots that works, I tend to buy three or four pairs at once and store them.
I don't do much more than 1000 miles a year, but the vast majority is on road. So I find that most of my kit is fairly indestructible, but shoes rarely last 400-500 miles. I have a pair of hybrid road/trail shoes which are approaching 1000km, they have lost some cushioning but are still fine for trail use.
Surely there comes a time when Russia regards all of this as the UK intervening in the war?
Russia claims harsh language is unacceptable interference. Leaves them nowhere to go when complaining about arms shipments.
Russia knows the West wont intervene directly, and the West knows that too. It fears escalation after all. But the West has been admirably clear it will do most anything else and Russian anger wont faze them - for once itll turn around and say to Russia, what are you going to do about it?
They've already threatened retaliation, short of suicidal action Russia cannot do anything though.
And there is the big problem for this wretched government. There is no imagination. No plan. No ideas. Can't even admit to reality because that demolishes the narrative of lies they rely on.
OBR sticks with forecast that #Brexit will cause 4% long run hit to GDP, and 15% fall in total imports & exports.
Adds "None" of new FTAs OR regulatory changes will have "material impact on our forecast"
This kind of analysis has to be seen in the context of inequality, living standards etc for people in the lower income deciles.
GDP isn't everything.
I'm not exactly sanguine about a 4% hit to long run GDP but I'd also like to see figures for GDP per capita and inequality. Harder to measure? Perhaps.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
From my bedroom I have a view of a bungalow and behind that a lovely wood, sadly lost a few trees due to Arwen and Malik, and this time of year the birdsong is glorious. We are also15 minutes from the fell. Love it here.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Same here re t shirts from entering umpteen charity cycle rides when I was younger. I have gardening/cycling/diy t shirts for a lifetime.
For me it's academic conferences - with lockdown I have been resurrecting T-shirts from three decades for walkies, diy, hobbies and generally being at home.
Lovely sunny weather up here. Mrs C spotted a nuthatch in its nest hole or food cache hole in a beech tree near the house. A new species to Scotland - has now colonised much of the country from the 1990s onwards.
Having a large garden we have a wide variety of birds, but in 11 years I hadn't seen a nuthatch here, until a few weeks ago. They are lovely birds.
If any EU country bows to Putin’s humiliating demands to pay for oil and gas in rubles, it will be like helping Ukraine with one hand and helping Russians kill Ukrainians with the other. I urge relevant countries to make a wise and responsible choice.
OK, I am officially stupid. Why does Putin want rubles which he can print anyway anyway?
I assume because for the West to pay him in roubles we need to buy them in Dollars/Euros etc first which improves the value of the Rouble? Am I right with that? It is the only reason I can immediately see.
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
I loved Mexico - so much more interesting rather than it’s rather dull northern neighbour. Some highlights - driving over apparently deserted countryside where suddenly a huge “f*ck you” catholic church built by the Spanish from stone taken from demolished temples rises up to show the locals who is in charge. Then a hill town near San Cristobal de las Casas where the locals had a very robust attitude to said imposed Saints - who they prayed to for rain, and if they didn’t deliver they were put out into the fields to learn their lessons. And then the food….
Best of luck to you three!
Just wary of the water here, we're in a pretty nice hotel that has water purifiers for everything they do including showers but elsewhere I've heard some pretty awful stories.
Only drank bottled water - but on our drive stopped at a roadside Mezcal seller who’d fill a 1.5l plastic bottle for about $4 - made sure to mark it with multiple Xs so I didn’t inadvertently return to the bus thirsty and try necking it!
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
I dont believe everything news agencies say.... esp Tass. Not wanting to be controversial but longer term victory regarding Ukraine involves persuading `normal' Russians that their current govt is plain wrong and that west is not an ogre out to crush their livelihoods/wellbeing. I support sanctions against oligarchs etc but stoking anti western sentiment (by dis-engaging with Russian voters/citizens/civil society) is likely to be counterproductive - in some ways we should be reaching out to down-trodden Russians demonstrating that we are not their enemy (and highlighting the plight of Ukrainians at the same time)
It is very important that ordinary Russians get the message that we are anti-Putin not anti-Russian. Undermining Russian support for the war is the way out of this mess.
Thats true, but it's not possibly to hit Putin without some impact on his people. Thats already been tried, it doesn't work.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Same here re t shirts from entering umpteen charity cycle rides when I was younger. I have gardening/cycling/diy t shirts for a lifetime.
For me it's academic conferences - with lockdown I have been resurrecting T-shirts from three decades for walkies, diy, hobbies and generally being at home.
Lovely sunny weather up here. Mrs C spotted a nuthatch in its nest hole or food cache hole in a beech tree near the house. A new species to Scotland - has now colonised much of the country from the 1990s onwards.
Having a large garden we have a wide variety of birds, but in 11 years I hadn't seen a nuthatch here, until a few weeks ago. They are lovely birds.
And very noisy at this time of the year.
The males "brick" the females into a hole in a tree with dry mud, until the eggs are hatched. Only ever once seen such a nest.
I'm sorry to say this to the armchair generals on here who seem to monopolise this forum at the moment but most Britons have switched off from the war in Ukraine. Or, rather, it has become a sideshow. That may be lamentable etc. etc., and I feel desperately sorry and sad for the Ukrainian people, but the fact remains that for many Britons a for-now-contained war a thousand miles away isn't as vital as how to pay the heating bill, drive to the office, or feed our kids.
Every time someone sticks up a thread telling us there will be a tory lead I have a wry smile to myself. The evidence suggests you may be waiting for Godot. The tories are in big trouble.
This has been a shambolic Government and the unhappiest period in this country's post-war history. The electorate will take it out on them.
Your continued whinges about about armchair generals - ie people commenting on the biggest news story on a news discussion board - whilst being one continues to be a silly look.
I do agree the public will take it out on this government as you suggest.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Same here re t shirts from entering umpteen charity cycle rides when I was younger. I have gardening/cycling/diy t shirts for a lifetime.
For me it's academic conferences - with lockdown I have been resurrecting T-shirts from three decades for walkies, diy, hobbies and generally being at home.
Lovely sunny weather up here. Mrs C spotted a nuthatch in its nest hole or food cache hole in a beech tree near the house. A new species to Scotland - has now colonised much of the country from the 1990s onwards.
Having a large garden we have a wide variety of birds, but in 11 years I hadn't seen a nuthatch here, until a few weeks ago. They are lovely birds.
And very noisy at this time of the year.
The males "brick" the females into a hole in a tree with dry mud, until the eggs are hatched. Only ever once seen such a nest.
I did not know that. I used to see lots when I lived in E Sussex, but not here in Surrey.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Same here re t shirts from entering umpteen charity cycle rides when I was younger. I have gardening/cycling/diy t shirts for a lifetime.
For me it's academic conferences - with lockdown I have been resurrecting T-shirts from three decades for walkies, diy, hobbies and generally being at home.
Lovely sunny weather up here. Mrs C spotted a nuthatch in its nest hole or food cache hole in a beech tree near the house. A new species to Scotland - has now colonised much of the country from the 1990s onwards.
Having a large garden we have a wide variety of birds, but in 11 years I hadn't seen a nuthatch here, until a few weeks ago. They are lovely birds.
And very noisy at this time of the year.
The males "brick" the females into a hole in a tree with dry mud, until the eggs are hatched. Only ever once seen such a nest.
There are a couple of other bird species which do that. Hornbill, IIRC. The male feeds the female and if the male dies the female waits patiently and eventually starves.
Comments
https://twitter.com/dmytrokuleba/status/1506899782786244612
But the point is that that is what it is possible for them to claim, and they are reporting a statement from a business organisation in France.
I was plugging the 8.0% inflation figure into various bits of modelling yesterday and it's completely altered what poverty is going to look like this year (see similar work by JRF/Resolution foundation).
Most of the people in my team have never experienced inflation like this; have to change our thinking somewhat.
Which means someone will need to exchange (sell) you rubles in exchange for dollars / euros
It should really have been a 55 plate Mk.2 Focus with a cracked windscreen and big fucking poppy on it for Red Wall appeal.
Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged
They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising
If you pay in dollars, you can get them from many trades around the world.
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1506654216579915788?t=qI38k__QkUOsZgVXJAstDw&s=19
There is worse to come but there ways through this. We need to invest £lots in so many areas and there are a lot of people who need better jobs or a job at all they can manage with their childcare responsibilities. We need to seriously uprate our defence capabilities - there are things that could be done with imagination.
And there is the big problem for this wretched government. There is no imagination. No plan. No ideas. Can't even admit to reality because that demolishes the narrative of lies they rely on.
Adds "None" of new FTAs OR regulatory changes will have "material impact on our forecast"
Pace @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/CCS0222366764-001_OBR-EFO-March-2022_Web-Accessible-2.pdf https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1506703157589651459/photo/1
A strange thing about high rates of fuel duty - they insulate you from oil price rises. In a low duty environment when oil gets 40% more expensive your pump price will follow closely. In a high duty environment the rise is much less as a bigger proportion of what you pay is a fixed rate - duty.
With oil prices so volatile and a clear risk of continued increases, a 5p duty cut not only gets negated in 5 minutes but makes future pump price rises more acute. But he got a photo with a petrol pump, so...
I heartedly agree. Appalling budget, which seems to be unravelling within 24 hours. Nothing for the struggling except some waffle about your local council might help if you are totally destitute.
BoE totally dropped the ball.
Love to know where that’s coming from giving that they need a subsidy from the government to survive..
GDP isn't everything.
It's been an incredible 5 weeks. Our last major trip with just the two of us as well, I'm pretty confident in saying that in September of this year there will be a Max Jr. Been nervous to think about it given our previous struggles but fingers crossed this time seems to have stuck.
I've fallen in love with Mexico though, I never expected to either so it's been even more amazing than I anticipated. My wife has been lording it over me the whole time because she's been saying we should come here for years.
Highlights of the trip - Puerto Escondido, essentially just a beach town full of 20 and 30 something (most English lol) backpackers but it's got an unexpected and unexplainable quality that made it amazing. We extended our stay there twice because it was exactly the place we wanted to be. Oaxaca was incredible, the food culture there is properly good and I think it will continue to develop over the next few years. We spent 3 nights at a mountain town called San Jose del Pacifico which was incredible, it was serenity in a resort.
We also met so many interesting people along the way including Bashar al-Assad's nephew, the CEO of a major Wall Street bank, a recruitment consultant in the London tech industry who seemed very keen on having an extra marital affair while my pregnant wife was asleep, among others.
Anyone who is on the fence about Mexico absolutely needs to go. @Leon I think you'd appreciate it more than most given my experience with the very beautiful recruitment girl.
The upside of changing contracts now though is that Germany and co can’t be sure whether they will be able to source everything elsewhere in x years time so will need to ask for longer terms now than they might do in 6 months time once they now how quickly they can change things.
Heath - telegraph
We know that half the Tory party are amoral rat fucks and the other 40% truly nasty human beings - and barely 10% who are actually decent. We have already seen - repeatedly - their response to human suffering. They will deny. Then sneer. Then belittle. Then mock.
People generally don't like being told they are stupid. That their lived experience must be wrong - or if it is true must be their own fault. So many Tory MPs are too stupid or amoral rat fuckish to know how their constituents live or think (look how many simply mass block people who dissent on social media). So for me the one thing that will the unifying factor in the election when it comes is the need to remove as many Tory MPs as possible as a moral crusade. Won't be a massive endorsement for whatever the party is who wins, just a vote against *them*.
We recently looked at the swing voting extremes of 97. I expect the same in 24 (albeit not with a landslide win backdrop).
Lovely sunny weather up here. Mrs C spotted a nuthatch in its nest hole or food cache hole in a beech tree near the house. A new species to Scotland - has now colonised much of the country from the 1990s onwards.
@RishiSunak didn’t like @MishalHusain pushing him on lack of help for millions on cost of living.
"If I might just have an opportunity to trying and answer the question that would be marvellous"
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1506907882717126658
Listening to him on Today Programme, suddenly now clear Sunak not only missed his chance at the top job, dithering over taking on the PM, he's now a real liability for the Tories considering a GE against the biggest cost of living squeeze since the war.
https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1506907882247368710
The tetchiness is interesting. He's been terribly nice so far, but then he's been given a very easy ride. The last 24 hours he's finally received a proper twatting. And suddenly he's not so nice.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1506908615768256514
Most Tories we spoke to last night were cautiously optimistic about Sunak's Spring Statement. Suspect that's rather melted away now think tanks + newspapers have considered the situation in the round and concluded this year is going to be... utterly shit.
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1506908465360478210
Is BoZo going to sack another chancellor and promote someone like Nadine who will promise to splash the cash regardless of the consequences?
I deeply detest cities and couldn't live in one these days.
You are better than this and make a much better case when you tone down some of your language
The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.
Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?
Best of luck to you three!
Johnson wouldn't do that surely?
I think our lot have been careful only to go for things where we have good stocks. Allegedly we had 20k of NLAWs, and have 6k or so of StarStreak (but only around 50 launch systems).
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1506902879239651333?s=21
Rishi admitted he had reserves of near £10 billion and he should have been more generous to those who have little or nothing
Russia knows the West wont intervene directly, and the West knows that too. It fears escalation after all. But the West has been admirably clear it will do most anything else and Russian anger wont faze them - for once itll turn around and say to Russia, what are you going to do about it?
They've already threatened retaliation, short of suicidal action Russia cannot do anything though.
The males "brick" the females into a hole in a tree with dry mud, until the eggs are hatched. Only ever once seen such a nest.
I do agree the public will take it out on this government as you suggest.