Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
Equivalised household income after housing costs is probably best.
It understates poverty in rural areas though (as excludes essential transport costs) and doesn't take into account more subjective stuff like how nice your neighbourhood is. Combine with SIMD (or equivalent) to get a general feel.
If you like, but nobody you'll ever meet in normal life has even heard of that. I'm talking about how people perceive themselves. rather than an objective measure.
Trying for a solution
A top 10% earner in central London with a giant mortgage and 12 children is probably right to claim they aren't "rich".
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
There's a great clip somewhere of an american commentator talking about being on 250k in New York as being close to poverty. Granted it's New York, and I don't know the context, but I really hope that isn't true because lord knows what all the people on much lower are in that case.
I am definitely not rich, I don't own an apartment on the 30th floor of the Barbican Tower as an overnight pad....I can only afford the 10th floor. That's the test, right?
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
Equivalised household income after housing costs is probably best.
It understates poverty in rural areas though (as excludes essential transport costs) and doesn't take into account more subjective stuff like how nice your neighbourhood is. Combine with SIMD (or equivalent) to get a general feel.
If you like, but nobody you'll ever meet in normal life has even heard of that. I'm talking about how people perceive themselves. rather than an objective measure.
“ People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. “
Well no, what you are actually claiming is, most people feel hard up, want more money, cheesed off at thought of credit crunch on their household budgets. If that is what you are claiming, which it sounds like, then I can’t agree with you. The vast majority know this coming squeeze is going hit their disposable income but not threaten them or know it is going to threaten them, tip them in or further into poverty. People do know where they are in this.
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Good idea. An uphill battle though. Most architects seems to have a horror of designing anything which might look anything but 21st century. They will scream 'pastiche' at you. Which is only really an insult to other architects but as they are the ones designing the buildings that's all it needs to be.
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
Equivalised household income after housing costs is probably best.
It understates poverty in rural areas though (as excludes essential transport costs) and doesn't take into account more subjective stuff like how nice your neighbourhood is. Combine with SIMD (or equivalent) to get a general feel.
If you like, but nobody you'll ever meet in normal life has even heard of that. I'm talking about how people perceive themselves. rather than an objective measure.
Trying for a solution
A top 10% earner in central London with a giant mortgage and 12 children is probably right to claim they aren't "rich".
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Good idea. An uphill battle though. Most architects seems to have a horror of designing anything which might look anything but 21st century. They will scream 'pastiche' at you. Which is only really an insult to other architects but as they are the ones designing the buildings that's all it needs to be.
We have to squash the fucking architects. Tell them what to do. They are insects. Their vanity and arrogance is half the problem
Aaron Bastani of Momentum is having a fascinating conversion to the period beauties of old British cities - before their ruination by Germans and developers - and he's meanwhile realising that this is all politicised
"Apparently if i think this is aesthetically inferior to what Derby is today that makes me…right wing? Go to Derby and you’ll see why that’s ridiculous."
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Good idea. An uphill battle though. Most architects seems to have a horror of designing anything which might look anything but 21st century. They will scream 'pastiche' at you. Which is only really an insult to other architects but as they are the ones designing the buildings that's all it needs to be.
Yeh but architects ultimately build what they’re told to, if we’re minded to tell them.
I have a lot more on this subject (like Leon I am a student of architecture and urbanism) and pastiche is a big risk if this stuff is done badly.
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Good idea. An uphill battle though. Most architects seems to have a horror of designing anything which might look anything but 21st century. They will scream 'pastiche' at you. Which is only really an insult to other architects but as they are the ones designing the buildings that's all it needs to be.
We have to squash the fucking architects. Tell them what to do. They are insects. Their vanity and arrogance is half the problem
I don't understand how the planning officers in Edinburgh can be so strict while simultaneously ripping out Georgian formal gardens and erecting a massive turd in the middle of the New Town.
Putin's televised meetings with his ministers confuse me. Why announce things in that way rather than just speaking to camera? Making sure they are publicly bound to everything he is doing?
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Good idea. An uphill battle though. Most architects seems to have a horror of designing anything which might look anything but 21st century. They will scream 'pastiche' at you. Which is only really an insult to other architects but as they are the ones designing the buildings that's all it needs to be.
Yeh but architects ultimately build what they’re told to, if we’re minded to tell them.
I have a lot more on this subject (like Leon I am a student of architecture and urbanism) and pastiche is a big risk if this stuff is done badly.
So let’s not do it badly.
Yes, agreed, and me too. We're all on the same page here.
Need a bit more time to prepare for it Volodymyr, but it is a good suggestion.
From BBC
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been delivering nightly video addresses since the start of the war, has called on people around the world to publicly protest on Thursday - one month since Russia's invasion.
I do think media fatigue is setting in, but the longer he can get people focused and competing with one another to provide Ukraine the most support, the better.
Putin's televised meetings with his ministers confuse me. Why announce things in that way rather than just speaking to camera? Making sure they are publicly bound to everything he is doing?
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Some of it's cultural- we've persuaded ourselves that we want individual gardens and no party walls. Shame really; the idea of a huge shared-but-not-public garden square is an attractive one.
But the other killer is that we mostly want lots of car parking space and road space to match, and that does really bad things to the density calculations, so the sums don't work and neither does the layout look quite right.
NYT - We analyzed dozens of battlefield radio transmissions between Russian forces in Ukraine during the initial invasion of Makariv, a town outside Kyiv. They reveal an army struggling with logistical problems and communication failures:
Fascinating claimed intercepted call from Russian officer near Mykolaiv to superiors in Russia. He says: - This is worse than Chechnya - 50% of troops have frostbite - They can’t evacuate the dead - Don’t have enough tents - RU plane dropped a bomb on their own position 🧵
50% of troops have frostbite is the big one there. That's going to be a big whack who are basically unfit for duty.
I have read quite a lot, recently, on the importance of morale in an army. And it certainly appears that Russian troops morale is likely to be rock bottom. But when was it never thus? Historically Russia have always got their troops to fight by making the prospect of not fighting more terrifying - whether prodding the arrow fodder out to face the Mongols at swordpoint or threatening death to the families of those who wouldn't advance against the Germans. I suppose the difference now is demographic: Russia does not have a limitless well of young men to call upon to replace those pointlessly sent to their doom. At some point they'll run out of troops.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned that a ban on Russian energy imports would mean a European recession. He must urgently wake up to the fact that the alternative is a European genocide.
The overall piece is excellent, but on that point I don't think the author is correct.
Right now, the Europeans receive Russian energy, and Russia receives European dollars/rubles/Euros.
But the Russians have limited ways to spend that money. Sanctions have cut off imported components that are essential for them to run their economy: once you disallow ARM, Intel, etc. semiconductors, there's not a lot you can make that contains electronics.
The Russians have no shortage of money. What they have is a limited ability to spend that money on things their economy needs.
And there's another thing. It's spring right now, and summer is around the corner. Europe would be well advised to fill gas storage to capacity, because that minimises Putin's leverage next Winter.
If Putin can't do much with the money then he doesn't have much incentive to maintain supply. If we refuse to pay in rubles and he turns off the tap next week, how long will it be until the stored gas runs out?
Let's take a step back.
Europe depends on oil, gas, coal and renewables/nuclear.
Oil is a world market, and whether Europe buys a single barrel or Russian oil or not makes no difference. All it means is that oil tankers go to China and India, and oil that was going to go to China or India goes to Europe. More time is spent in transit, tanker day rates go up, but nothing fundamentally happens.
Coal - well, that's a relatively world market too. There are exports from South Africa, Australia, South America, the US and (believe it or not) even China.
Gas is the big one. Now, Europe gets piped gas from Russia, Norway, and North Africa and LNG from the US and the Gulf.
It is impossible to replace all Russian gas with LNG gas. And this isn't a question of world gas production capacity (although that would be an issue), or LNG terminals (less so, because Europe as a whole has ample import capacity), but simply the fact that the world does not have enough LNG vessels to carry gas.
Plus, there are only a limited number of spot cargoes. (Some LNG is sold on long-term contracts, some is sold in the spot market. We, the UK, are very unusual in that we have very little LNG on long-term contracts.)
If Russia turns off the taps (and they will), then three things will happen:
(1) Europe will bid on every LNG cargo out there, and even on some contracted ones (2) The price of LNG will go through the roof (3) LNG plants will attempt to create new spot cargoes (and some old inefficient ships will come out of storage)
There is literally not enough gas to go around. Basically the UK and the EU will be bidding on gas that will be insufficient for the two countries.
But there's good news.
The next six months is usually a period when pipelines have periodic maintenance stoppages and volumes are typically much lower than during the winter, storage facilities are typically refilled during this time, etc. Gas storage levels in Europe are also surprisingly high - a consequence of a windy spring.
So, if the Russians turn the gas taps off, then Europe (and the UK, because don't forget that we're hit just as much as Germany) will be broadly OK over the summer.
Come Autumn, though...
Well it depends on the weather: some time between late September and the 20th of October. I'd reckon probably the second week of October.
At that point storage is exhausted. Demand is rising. And there's no gas.
Basically, you need to overthrow the Russian regime and win the war in Ukraine before the end of September.
I would certainly disagree with your claim that We are hit as much as Germany.
80% of UK gas comes either from our own fields or via pipelines from European sources. So the LNG issue only affects 20% of our supply. Now obviously that is still too much but it is not the case to say we are as exposed to the LNG shipped supply as Germany or other central European countries.
The gap is closer than you think, for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the piped gas from Norway is not on long-term fixed price contracts. So the rising price of energy affects what we pay Statoil. Maybe not as much as switching from all Russian piped gas to LNG, but it certainly has a big impact.
Secondly, we use a lot more gas in powergen than Germany does, because they have both lots of dirty brown coal, and more renewables. Gas is usually the biggest part of UK powergen, often accounting for more than half the total. That compares to less than a quarter in Germany.
But that wasn't the point. You were saying that our reliance on LNG exposed us as much as Germany if the Russians switch of supply. And I think your numbers are wrong. The most recent figures I can find show that Germany in 2020 used 86.5 bcms of gas. That rose to 100 bcms in 2021. The UK used 80 bcms. So our usage is substantially less but Germany will find it much harder to replace Russian supply as it accounts for 32% of their supply but only 4% of the UK supply.
I am not talking about gas price as obviously this is a global market but specifically about the ability to supply Germany with sufficient gas
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
I live relatively close to Derby and hardly ever visit it. Birmingham is much nicer.
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Some of it's cultural- we've persuaded ourselves that we want individual gardens and no party walls. Shame really; the idea of a huge shared-but-not-public garden square is an attractive one.
But the other killer is that we mostly want lots of car parking space and road space to match, and that does really bad things to the density calculations, so the sums don't work and neither does the layout look quite right.
They have cars in Paris and Edinburgh, I’m sure we can find a way to let traffic in and out of Derby.
Seriously though, this could be the project Boris has been waiting for. Nobody really *cares* about Derby, not even people from Derbyshire. So there’ll be less mad nimbyism and vested interests to overcome.
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
Equivalised household income after housing costs is probably best.
It understates poverty in rural areas though (as excludes essential transport costs) and doesn't take into account more subjective stuff like how nice your neighbourhood is. Combine with SIMD (or equivalent) to get a general feel.
If you like, but nobody you'll ever meet in normal life has even heard of that. I'm talking about how people perceive themselves. rather than an objective measure.
“ People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. “
Well no, what you are actually claiming is, most people feel hard up, want more money, cheesed off at thought of credit crunch on their household budgets. If that is what you are claiming, which it sounds like, then I can’t agree with you. The vast majority know this coming squeeze is going hit their disposable income but not threaten them or know it is going to threaten them, tip them in or further into poverty. People do know where they are in this.
How does that link support your argument? He’s not going to face fuel poverty or have to use food banks anymore than myself in this coming crunch, whinging is no proof someone doesn’t know where they are, and how it will affect them. We all know there are going to be people much less fortunate than ourselves, real impact on their household in terms of fuel, food, home, holding family together, the impact on their children, sleeplessness nights of worry, feelings of shame, inadequacy, stigma - and those of us who know it won’t be us, none of this.
We are not all in this credit crunch together Farooq! So many have no justification to whine like your Christie about their struggle.
The recession that is coming is a bit different I admit, as people on all sorts of incomes can get laid off, struggle to find work, and struggle to pay bills. That’s the greater threat of recession, it takes away incomes.
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
Nb. Economically, Biden and the Democrats have blown it. Recession in US in next two years guarantees a Republican President. And we all know who that will be…
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
Nb. Economically, Biden and the Democrats have blown it. Recession in US in next two years guarantees a Republican President. And we all know who that will be…
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
Equivalised household income after housing costs is probably best.
It understates poverty in rural areas though (as excludes essential transport costs) and doesn't take into account more subjective stuff like how nice your neighbourhood is. Combine with SIMD (or equivalent) to get a general feel.
If you like, but nobody you'll ever meet in normal life has even heard of that. I'm talking about how people perceive themselves. rather than an objective measure.
“ People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. “
Well no, what you are actually claiming is, most people feel hard up, want more money, cheesed off at thought of credit crunch on their household budgets. If that is what you are claiming, which it sounds like, then I can’t agree with you. The vast majority know this coming squeeze is going hit their disposable income but not threaten them or know it is going to threaten them, tip them in or further into poverty. People do know where they are in this.
How does that link support your argument? He’s not going to face fuel poverty or have to use food banks anymore than myself in this coming crunch, whinging is no proof someone doesn’t know where they are, and how it will affect them. We all know there are going to be people much less fortunate than ourselves, real impact on their household in terms of fuel, food, home, holding family together, the impact on their children, sleeplessness nights of worry, feelings of shame, inadequacy, stigma - and those of us who know it won’t be us, none of this.
We are not all in this credit crunch together Farooq! So many have no justification to whine like your Christie about their struggle.
The recession that is coming is a bit different I admit, as people on all sorts of incomes can get laid off, struggle to find work, and struggle to pay bills. That’s the greater threat of recession, it takes away incomes.
If your argument is that people have a good sense of their own privilege, then... well, good luck.
I know I don’t agree with you, you are wrong on this as always, but what exactly is the thing we are arguing about? What did I say that was wrong, that meant you was wrong?
Aaron Bastani of Momentum is having a fascinating conversion to the period beauties of old British cities - before their ruination by Germans and developers - and he's meanwhile realising that this is all politicised
"Apparently if i think this is aesthetically inferior to what Derby is today that makes me…right wing? Go to Derby and you’ll see why that’s ridiculous."
Anecdote from 1980s Derby: Following some twinning arrangement with a city in Germany, German burghers came to visit the city. Shocked and appalled, they expressed great contrition for the fate which had evidently befallen Derby in the war, empathising that many German towns had met a similar fate too. The bigwigs from Derby had to concede that actually Derby had escaped the war very lightly indeed, and what they saw before them was them had been entirely self-inflicted by 1960s architects and urban designers.
I actually quite like Derby, and - following the conversation with @Anabobazina yesterday I mused to myself that if I were to start a new life in an East Midlands city, it would probably be Derby. The city centre has some splendid pubs, there are some pleasant suburbs and you are almost on the edges of the Peak District: Derby is next to better countryside than either Nottingham or Leicester. But what it could have been if only it had been left alone...
There is absolutely no doubt that Derbyshire is among the most beautiful counties in England (far superior to Nottinghamshire). But Derbyshire is near enough to Nottingham, which is the regional capital and by far its best city. So just live there.
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Some of it's cultural- we've persuaded ourselves that we want individual gardens and no party walls. Shame really; the idea of a huge shared-but-not-public garden square is an attractive one.
But the other killer is that we mostly want lots of car parking space and road space to match, and that does really bad things to the density calculations, so the sums don't work and neither does the layout look quite right.
There is a practical aspect to having a garden, though, it's effectively like an extra outside room, whereas if you have a shared garden square, even if it's private to the residents, you have to leave your home to visit it. You can't do things like have your young child play in the garden while you keep half an eye on them from the kitchen while you do chores there, because the distance is too great, and various other inconveniences.
We live in one of the Edinburgh four in a block flats, so we have a patch of garden which is ours alone, but because we are in one of the upper flats, it's just not as convenient to use as a garden on a semi-detached would be. It makes a surprisingly large difference to its utility. Even if you just want to do something simple like sit out in a chair with a drink on a summer's evening, it's just so much more hassle, you have to be almost as organised as if you were taking a picnic to the park.
Will this budget make the weekend before it is shot down and declared one of the worst in living memory?
Everyone here and everyone I have heard on various radio programs seems to have got there already.
I don’t think it all bad. £12,570 a year without paying a single penny of income tax or national insurance a £6bn ish giveaway to 30 million ish people. Raising NI and income tax cut announced in same statement a bit odd. Cut in fuel tax, not very green except it is time limited 1yr and not for ever. Maybe not much obvious help overall with poorer households faced with energy bill problems. But nothing stands out as worst budget ever as yet does it
Now I’ve read newspaper front pages, is it possible to have this previous post deleted? It makes me look completely out of touch 🤦♀️
Sunak seems to be forced to carry a cross to his execution, not for what he announced, but everything he failed to do.
“No help with rising energy bills” declares the FT. “Reality behind mini budget? No heat to eat!” The Metro yells at us. “Sunak squeezes poorest “ yells guardian in big black ink. Telegraph chooses to show disdain and disgust here by having every reporter and communist sneer at it in unison.
The thing I didn't like about the budget was the triumphalist tone and Brownite slight of hand but where do the papers expect Sunak to have got the money from? We have shelled out billions for the last 2 years on the pandemic. We shelled out further billions little over a decade back on the financial crisis. Sorry, there is no money left.
Easy, fucking tax rich pensioners and their vast property wealth and rent seeking. You know, actually target those with the most so that those with the least can be protected from the oncoming storm of inflation.
Taxes are going up and the tax burden is at the highest level since the 1950s Debt is over 100% of GDP
I would argue if you want to spend more then something else has to go.
I'm afraid I would start with foreign aid as charity begins at home. Then you have all the quangos. Can we live without the NHS, no? Can we live without Ofcom, yes.
Actually if you look at public services, they’re already hollowed out after years of austerity.
The idea there is money to be saved by axing Ofcom is risible.
Wealth - largely in the hands of pensioners - is the only place to go. And/or, we countenance a higher debt burden.
Debt burden already over 100% of GDP? I read something that for a country like ours 140% GDP has a tipping point impact. So yes, there is room to add to debt. However should we not save that leeway in case the recession comes in the coming years? I’m sure the post covid growth and inflation spike, cost of energy, and lack of monetary tightening means a recession already inevitable. It’s now baked in, if you point to where I can bet on recession in next two years and I’ll stick a oner on. The Mail tonight talks up 2p off income tax before the election, that makes them idiots of forecasting if we are in economic depression with little room for that two years today rather than sunlit uplands.
All that tipping point stuff is mostly bollocks. There’s certainly leeway to borrow more.
But as you say, is it right to do so during a bout of inflation?
I’d suggest not, which is why my proposals upthread aimed to be fiscally neutral.
I think we should fiscally tighten to avoid recession. The Times and Mail financially and economically illiterate to call for bigger tax slashing right now. The idiots at the Times and Mail this evening need to go down on the beach and stop the tide coming in.
Why is that % of GDP as debt stuff bollocks? Surely there is a tipping point somewhere, if not 140 then where?
I’d prefer to rely on interest rates rather than fiscal contraction, I think.
Regarding tipping points, I don’t think there is one.
Obviously there’s a point though at which debt repayment crowd out government spend. It also depends on demography and growth rates. High debt is fine if you think you’ll grow out of it.
You mean babies plus immigrants you can carry high debt, lack of babies and immigration high debt becomes a problem?
Indeed.
But voters vote against immigration because they don’t like our country being in debt? Voters equate immigration to how poor they are and don’t have enough money spent on them?
People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. They voted against immigration too.
Equivalised household income after housing costs is probably best.
It understates poverty in rural areas though (as excludes essential transport costs) and doesn't take into account more subjective stuff like how nice your neighbourhood is. Combine with SIMD (or equivalent) to get a general feel.
If you like, but nobody you'll ever meet in normal life has even heard of that. I'm talking about how people perceive themselves. rather than an objective measure.
“ People have no idea how rich or poor they are. There are people who are in the top 10% of earners who will complain about only having just enough to get by. “
Well no, what you are actually claiming is, most people feel hard up, want more money, cheesed off at thought of credit crunch on their household budgets. If that is what you are claiming, which it sounds like, then I can’t agree with you. The vast majority know this coming squeeze is going hit their disposable income but not threaten them or know it is going to threaten them, tip them in or further into poverty. People do know where they are in this.
How does that link support your argument? He’s not going to face fuel poverty or have to use food banks anymore than myself in this coming crunch, whinging is no proof someone doesn’t know where they are, and how it will affect them. We all know there are going to be people much less fortunate than ourselves, real impact on their household in terms of fuel, food, home, holding family together, the impact on their children, sleeplessness nights of worry, feelings of shame, inadequacy, stigma - and those of us who know it won’t be us, none of this.
We are not all in this credit crunch together Farooq! So many have no justification to whine like your Christie about their struggle.
The recession that is coming is a bit different I admit, as people on all sorts of incomes can get laid off, struggle to find work, and struggle to pay bills. That’s the greater threat of recession, it takes away incomes.
If your argument is that people have a good sense of their own privilege, then... well, good luck.
I know I don’t agree with you, you are wrong on this as always, but what exactly is the thing we are arguing about? What did I say that was wrong, that meant you was wrong?
"I know you're wrong but I don't know what you're saying" is definitely a line I'm going to use in the future.
Well you would, wouldn’t you.
“If your argument is that people have a good sense of their own privilege, then... well, good luck.”
Your argument based on taking a cynical, maybe quasi moral preachy line that people, at least a lot to most people, don’t, when they are being honest when they kneel naked beside their bed and talk to their God, don’t have a good sense of their own privilege? Is that your argument?
Then you are definitely wrong. Most people do, I’m sure. 😌
Aaron Bastani of Momentum is having a fascinating conversion to the period beauties of old British cities - before their ruination by Germans and developers - and he's meanwhile realising that this is all politicised
"Apparently if i think this is aesthetically inferior to what Derby is today that makes me…right wing? Go to Derby and you’ll see why that’s ridiculous."
Anecdote from 1980s Derby: Following some twinning arrangement with a city in Germany, German burghers came to visit the city. Shocked and appalled, they expressed great contrition for the fate which had evidently befallen Derby in the war, empathising that many German towns had met a similar fate too. The bigwigs from Derby had to concede that actually Derby had escaped the war very lightly indeed, and what they saw before them was them had been entirely self-inflicted by 1960s architects and urban designers.
I actually quite like Derby, and - following the conversation with @Anabobazina yesterday I mused to myself that if I were to start a new life in an East Midlands city, it would probably be Derby. The city centre has some splendid pubs, there are some pleasant suburbs and you are almost on the edges of the Peak District: Derby is next to better countryside than either Nottingham or Leicester. But what it could have been if only it had been left alone...
There is absolutely no doubt that Derbyshire is among the most beautiful counties in England (far superior to Nottinghamshire). But Derbyshire is near enough to Nottingham, which is the regional capital and by far its best city. So just live there.
Parts of Nottinghamshire aren't too bad - the Dukeries for instance. But no, it isn't Derbyshire.
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Some of it's cultural- we've persuaded ourselves that we want individual gardens and no party walls. Shame really; the idea of a huge shared-but-not-public garden square is an attractive one.
But the other killer is that we mostly want lots of car parking space and road space to match, and that does really bad things to the density calculations, so the sums don't work and neither does the layout look quite right.
They have cars in Paris and Edinburgh, I’m sure we can find a way to let traffic in and out of Derby.
Seriously though, this could be the project Boris has been waiting for. Nobody really *cares* about Derby, not even people from Derbyshire. So there’ll be less mad nimbyism and vested interests to overcome.
Let’s make Derby great again.
They've added quite a few new developments of flats to bits of Edinburgh in recent years, and it has added more cars to the roads, and there isn't space for them. It's had a negative impact on the efficiency of what has previously been a well regarded bus system, because the buses can't make it through the traffic.
Too many cars kills a city. Either there isn't enough road space for them all, and you have gridlock, or you have to have so much space for cars that the city is hostile and unpleasant to walk around.
Aaron Bastani of Momentum is having a fascinating conversion to the period beauties of old British cities - before their ruination by Germans and developers - and he's meanwhile realising that this is all politicised
"Apparently if i think this is aesthetically inferior to what Derby is today that makes me…right wing? Go to Derby and you’ll see why that’s ridiculous."
Anecdote from 1980s Derby: Following some twinning arrangement with a city in Germany, German burghers came to visit the city. Shocked and appalled, they expressed great contrition for the fate which had evidently befallen Derby in the war, empathising that many German towns had met a similar fate too. The bigwigs from Derby had to concede that actually Derby had escaped the war very lightly indeed, and what they saw before them was them had been entirely self-inflicted by 1960s architects and urban designers.
I actually quite like Derby, and - following the conversation with @Anabobazina yesterday I mused to myself that if I were to start a new life in an East Midlands city, it would probably be Derby. The city centre has some splendid pubs, there are some pleasant suburbs and you are almost on the edges of the Peak District: Derby is next to better countryside than either Nottingham or Leicester. But what it could have been if only it had been left alone...
There is absolutely no doubt that Derbyshire is among the most beautiful counties in England (far superior to Nottinghamshire). But Derbyshire is near enough to Nottingham, which is the regional capital and by far its best city. So just live there.
I used to live in Nottingham (well, Beeston). Nottingham is a fine city centre. But a city centre is somewhere to visit. The suburb you choose is more important than the city it is next to. And what you see when you look outwards is more important than what you see when you look in. For me, anyway. That's what makes my heart sing to be somewhere. People think Nottingham is close to the Peak District, but it isn't, really. It's a good hour away; a drive through interminable small towns. Whereas start from the northern suburbs of Derby and, while you're not in the Peak District straight away, you're immediately into the pleasant countryside of the lower Derwent valley, which is almost as good as.
I once drew a map encircling all of the areas I thought of as home. Derby wasn't in it. But of all the cities in the East Midlands, Derby was closest to touching distance. You can almost see the hills that home starts on the other side of. The northern suburbs feel as if the north is about to start just a bit further up. Whereas Nottingham felt very Midlands. The light was different. The nice countryside to the south and east was in the wrong direction and abutted alien places like Lincolnshire. It was only 60 miles or so from where I was born, yet felt a long way from home (in a way that, say, Cumbria or North Yorkshire does not). It's not just about Northernliness - Hull, for example, is north of were I am from yet feels equally unlike home.
And also, as I say, Derby has some absolutely splendid pubs (as do Nottingham and Leicester, to be fair), which is as much as you need from a city centre.
Surely there comes a time when Russia regards all of this as the UK intervening in the war?
I'm sure they're not happy about it, but it's clearly much harder for them to threaten an escalation in response to something that is already happening, rather than in response to something that hasn't happened yet (like sending peacekeeping troops into West Ukraine).
In any case, begins to sound like Putin has run out of patience in trying to provoke NATO involvement in Ukraine, and so he's going to test German military preparedness by trying to link Kaliningrad to Belarus via Lithuania, and provoke a less embarrassing to lose war with NATO.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Well yes, that's what I said before...I am sure China won't have any issues supplying said components (even if it is under the table like they do with North Korea), but Renault absolutely can't be anywhere near such a thing both because they are a Western company with big market and also the French government are a big part of it.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
The Wendover Productions video put out earlier today was interesting about the aviation industry in Russia under sanctions. Clifnotes,
a) they nicked these leased planes, but with no easy access to parts they will have to cannibalise them in order to keep flying (and safety standards are going to go out the window)
b) China Comac could sell their own rip-off of Airbus, but chances are still lots of Western IP in it.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned that a ban on Russian energy imports would mean a European recession. He must urgently wake up to the fact that the alternative is a European genocide.
The overall piece is excellent, but on that point I don't think the author is correct.
Right now, the Europeans receive Russian energy, and Russia receives European dollars/rubles/Euros.
But the Russians have limited ways to spend that money. Sanctions have cut off imported components that are essential for them to run their economy: once you disallow ARM, Intel, etc. semiconductors, there's not a lot you can make that contains electronics.
The Russians have no shortage of money. What they have is a limited ability to spend that money on things their economy needs.
And there's another thing. It's spring right now, and summer is around the corner. Europe would be well advised to fill gas storage to capacity, because that minimises Putin's leverage next Winter.
If Putin can't do much with the money then he doesn't have much incentive to maintain supply. If we refuse to pay in rubles and he turns off the tap next week, how long will it be until the stored gas runs out?
Let's take a step back.
Europe depends on oil, gas, coal and renewables/nuclear.
Oil is a world market, and whether Europe buys a single barrel or Russian oil or not makes no difference. All it means is that oil tankers go to China and India, and oil that was going to go to China or India goes to Europe. More time is spent in transit, tanker day rates go up, but nothing fundamentally happens.
Coal - well, that's a relatively world market too. There are exports from South Africa, Australia, South America, the US and (believe it or not) even China.
Gas is the big one. Now, Europe gets piped gas from Russia, Norway, and North Africa and LNG from the US and the Gulf.
It is impossible to replace all Russian gas with LNG gas. And this isn't a question of world gas production capacity (although that would be an issue), or LNG terminals (less so, because Europe as a whole has ample import capacity), but simply the fact that the world does not have enough LNG vessels to carry gas.
Plus, there are only a limited number of spot cargoes. (Some LNG is sold on long-term contracts, some is sold in the spot market. We, the UK, are very unusual in that we have very little LNG on long-term contracts.)
If Russia turns off the taps (and they will), then three things will happen:
(1) Europe will bid on every LNG cargo out there, and even on some contracted ones (2) The price of LNG will go through the roof (3) LNG plants will attempt to create new spot cargoes (and some old inefficient ships will come out of storage)
There is literally not enough gas to go around. Basically the UK and the EU will be bidding on gas that will be insufficient for the two countries.
But there's good news.
The next six months is usually a period when pipelines have periodic maintenance stoppages and volumes are typically much lower than during the winter, storage facilities are typically refilled during this time, etc. Gas storage levels in Europe are also surprisingly high - a consequence of a windy spring.
So, if the Russians turn the gas taps off, then Europe (and the UK, because don't forget that we're hit just as much as Germany) will be broadly OK over the summer.
Come Autumn, though...
Well it depends on the weather: some time between late September and the 20th of October. I'd reckon probably the second week of October.
At that point storage is exhausted. Demand is rising. And there's no gas.
Basically, you need to overthrow the Russian regime and win the war in Ukraine before the end of September.
I would certainly disagree with your claim that We are hit as much as Germany.
80% of UK gas comes either from our own fields or via pipelines from European sources. So the LNG issue only affects 20% of our supply. Now obviously that is still too much but it is not the case to say we are as exposed to the LNG shipped supply as Germany or other central European countries.
The gap is closer than you think, for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the piped gas from Norway is not on long-term fixed price contracts. So the rising price of energy affects what we pay Statoil. Maybe not as much as switching from all Russian piped gas to LNG, but it certainly has a big impact.
Secondly, we use a lot more gas in powergen than Germany does, because they have both lots of dirty brown coal, and more renewables. Gas is usually the biggest part of UK powergen, often accounting for more than half the total. That compares to less than a quarter in Germany.
But that wasn't the point. You were saying that our reliance on LNG exposed us as much as Germany if the Russians switch of supply. And I think your numbers are wrong. The most recent figures I can find show that Germany in 2020 used 86.5 bcms of gas. That rose to 100 bcms in 2021. The UK used 80 bcms. So our usage is substantially less but Germany will find it much harder to replace Russian supply as it accounts for 32% of their supply but only 4% of the UK supply.
I am not talking about gas price as obviously this is a global market but specifically about the ability to supply Germany with sufficient gas
How affected you are is a consequence of how much gas you absolutely need, how much you can get, and what you pay for it.
If we can't get any LNG cargoes (which is obviously not going to happen), then it has pretty severe issues for the UK's ability to generate power.
My point is that the UK will be badly affected by Russia ceasing gas exports to Germany, because that means that the UK and Germany will both be bidding on a relatively small number of spot LNG cargoes.
I don't really think that's a particularly controversial point.
Now, we can argue about the extent of the impact. I would note that the UK has (unfortunately) shuttered a lot of coal stations and has limited gas storage. On the other hand, we are a far less energy intensive country than Germany.
The ultimate impact will be that electricity prices in both countries will go through the roof.
Russia seems to be slowly moving beyond 'special operation' euphemism. RT editor Margarita Simonyan is now talking about how good it is that Russia can have a new generation of heroes to compare with the people who fought in World War 2.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
Actually, the situation with ARM and China is ... interesting.
A couple of years ago, the head of ARM's Chinese division got sacked by his board. Except he refused to leave, and called the division independent of the head company.
Essentially, ARM China is currently an independent company, and could do what the heck it likes.
It's quite an amazing situation. He has essentially stolen ARM China, along with its bank accounts. He won't give a damn about exporting to Russia if the Chinese government allow him.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
Actually, the situation with ARM and China is ... interesting.
A couple of years ago, the head of ARM's Chinese division got sacked by his board. Except he refused to leave, and called the division independent of the head company.
Essentially, ARM China is currently an independent company, and could do what the heck it likes.
It's quite an amazing situation. He has essentially stolen ARM China, along with its bank accounts. He won't give a damn about exporting to Russia if the Chinese government allow him.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
Actually, the situation with ARM and China is ... interesting.
A couple of years ago, the head of ARM's Chinese division got sacked by his board. Except he refused to leave, and called the division independent of the head company.
Essentially, ARM China is currently an independent company, and could do what the heck it likes.
It's quite an amazing situation. He has essentially stolen ARM China, along with its bank accounts. He won't give a damn about exporting to Russia if the Chinese government allow him.
What would he export, though? As I understand it, ARM China is not manufacturing anything, it is selling licences. The Russians can already ignore those - but they still need to access the actual technology.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
If that does happen, the Chinese will effectively be closing down their own access to any number of markets. The extent to which ongoing access to Russia makes up for that is moot.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
Actually, the situation with ARM and China is ... interesting.
A couple of years ago, the head of ARM's Chinese division got sacked by his board. Except he refused to leave, and called the division independent of the head company.
Essentially, ARM China is currently an independent company, and could do what the heck it likes.
It's quite an amazing situation. He has essentially stolen ARM China, along with its bank accounts. He won't give a damn about exporting to Russia if the Chinese government allow him.
What would he export, though? As I understand it, ARM China is not manufacturing anything, it is selling licences. The Russians can already ignore those - but they still need to access the actual technology.
ARM China had access to the IP up to the time of the shenanigans. Nothing has been shared since, but I believe they have access up to the 2/3-year old Cortex-A77. Also AIUI, they also have a large design team.
So no, they're not just licences.
It's quite an incredible situation. Oher western companies should look very carefully at what happened and protect their interests.
Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives eviscerated in the Telegraph. Yes, the Telegraph.
"Sunak never set off to do this, but his role as Johnson’s CFO has made him responsible for helping complete Britain’s transition to a low-growth, high tax economy. The numbers are horrifying.
Even after Sunak’s modest, performative tax relief, the tax to GDP ratio will have increased by 3.3 percentage points of GDP by 2025-6 compared with 2019-20. The overall tax burden will surge from 33 per cent of GDP to 36.3 per cent, the highest since Clement Attlee’s hard-Left administration in the 1940s. Public spending will have increased by 2.1 per cent of GDP, to levels last reached sustainably in the 1970s. This is what a technocratic Labour government would do, minus the wealth taxes and the class warfare."
[...]
"Yet Sunak made a terrible mistake by not scrapping his NIC hike, and an even worse one by defying Boris Johnson when the PM was at his weakest, forcing him to stick to this daft, destructive policy. He was reduced to spending his Spring Statement tinkering and tweaking. What’s the point of hiking NICs and then cutting income tax?
It is likely that the voters will turn on the Tories as the cost of living crisis intensifies. If so, we must hope that Johnson doesn’t choose to make Sunak his scapegoat."
I'm sorry to say this to the armchair generals on here who seem to monopolise this forum at the moment but most Britons have switched off from the war in Ukraine. Or, rather, it has become a sideshow. That may be lamentable etc. etc., and I feel desperately sorry and sad for the Ukrainian people, but the fact remains that for many Britons a for-now-contained war a thousand miles away isn't as vital as how to pay the heating bill, drive to the office, or feed our kids.
Every time someone sticks up a thread telling us there will be a tory lead I have a wry smile to myself. The evidence suggests you may be waiting for Godot. The tories are in big trouble.
This has been a shambolic Government and the unhappiest period in this country's post-war history. The electorate will take it out on them.
I'm sorry to say this to the armchair generals on here who seem to monopolise this forum at the moment but most Britons have switched off from the war in Ukraine. Or, rather, it has become a sideshow. That may be lamentable etc. etc., and I feel desperately sorry and sad for the Ukrainian people, but the fact remains that for many Britons a for-now-contained war a thousand miles away isn't as vital as how to pay the heating bill, drive to the office, or feed our kids.
Every time someone sticks up a thread telling us there will be a tory lead I have a wry smile to myself. The evidence suggests you may be waiting for Godot. The tories are in big trouble.
This has been a shambolic Government and the unhappiest period in this country's post-war history. The electorate will take it out on them.
the Tories may be in trouble, but the opposition vote is so split they have a good chance of doing a 2005 where they get back in on a very small but efficient vote. for the opposition to unpick it all they need to do the almost-unthinkable...cooperate
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I'm sorry to say this to the armchair generals on here who seem to monopolise this forum at the moment but most Britons have switched off from the war in Ukraine. Or, rather, it has become a sideshow. That may be lamentable etc. etc., and I feel desperately sorry and sad for the Ukrainian people, but the fact remains that for many Britons a for-now-contained war a thousand miles away isn't as vital as how to pay the heating bill, drive to the office, or feed our kids.
Every time someone sticks up a thread telling us there will be a tory lead I have a wry smile to myself. The evidence suggests you may be waiting for Godot. The tories are in big trouble.
This has been a shambolic Government and the unhappiest period in this country's post-war history. The electorate will take it out on them.
the Tories may be in trouble, but the opposition vote is so split
Are you sure about that?
There seem to be plenty of signs of informal co-operation and in this internet age increasingly savvy voters. As an anecdote I know exactly who I have to vote for in order to boot out the tories: a few clicks and it's all laid out in front of me. And I receive plenty of reminders from various sources (post, internet, texts) about who to vote for.
I just wonder, non-confrontationally, whether you're sufficiently differentiating formal electoral pacts from an increasingly aware electorate on the ground? Or is this wishful thinking on my part?!
Not sure I buy into your comment and I don't think Mike Smithson does?
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
I dont believe everything news agencies say.... esp Tass. Not wanting to be controversial but longer term victory regarding Ukraine involves persuading `normal' Russians that their current govt is plain wrong and that west is not an ogre out to crush their livelihoods/wellbeing. I support sanctions against oligarchs etc but stoking anti western sentiment (by dis-engaging with Russian voters/citizens/civil society) is likely to be counterproductive - in some ways we should be reaching out to down-trodden Russians demonstrating that we are not their enemy (and highlighting the plight of Ukrainians at the same time)
I've just caught up with that R&W poll showing Labour on 40% with a 5% lead.
Now that the immediate sight of Blubbery Boris rushing out to Ukraine's aid with, erm, no aid has worn off the polls seem to have settled back to a comfortable Labour lead. I doubt whether yesterday's shocker will help the tories so I can't see how they're supposed to get a lead with anything other than an outlier.
And ahead? Can anyone really see them picking up substantially given the economy and this buffoon at the helm?
So we will come into a General Election with, I think, a very interesting scenario. Historically it's a tall order for Labour to overturn an 80-seat majority into an outright one of their own. It's possible but unlikely.
Which could leave a very intriguing situation. Will they have sufficient for a Lib-Lab pact and preserve the union? Or will they be forced to acquiesce to the SNP demands for indyref2 as the price for power?
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
I dont believe everything news agencies say.... esp Tass. Not wanting to be controversial but longer term victory regarding Ukraine involves persuading `normal' Russians that their current govt is plain wrong and that west is not an ogre out to crush their livelihoods/wellbeing. I support sanctions against oligarchs etc but stoking anti western sentiment (by dis-engaging with Russian voters/citizens/civil society) is likely to be counterproductive - in some ways we should be reaching out to down-trodden Russians demonstrating that we are not their enemy (and highlighting the plight of Ukrainians at the same time)
It is very important that ordinary Russians get the message that we are anti-Putin not anti-Russian. Undermining Russian support for the war is the way out of this mess.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I made a similar change 9 years ago. The main downside is that you can't really maintain a london based social life, whilst living an hour + train ride away. Nor can you pop out to events that are going on around town. That is the first thing that goes. No one has the energy to get the train back from London at 11pm every night. Against this, however, there are many upsides.
Living in a flat in London - it suits some people, but others not so much. I think the biggest problem is that London is too crowded, and just too big, all in all. If I could start again I would probably choose to live in the suburbs of a second tier city.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Gorgeous picture
When the weather is like this, England is a great place to be. One thing about the pandemic has been the rediscovery of simple pleasures, like having my morning cuppa in the garden with my pup. Better than Starbucks!
Incidentally, one of my neighbours is a retired binman in social housing, and has the same view, though he grumbles about the trees.
What a beautiful morning, sunny and calm, 11C - warmest morning of the year so far - the sun glinting off a still sea with just a thin layer of mist so that the waiting container ship, with the latest delivery of Amazon tat from China, looks half submerged in a sea of milk.
Good Morning everybody. Lovely morning here, although the view of the 17th & 18th C rooftops I have out of my window is rather spoiled by TV aerials, and by the window still being covered in Saharan sand. However, with luck the window-cleaner should come today or tomorrow.
And, no, I'm in the attic of my bungalow, and my ladder climbing days are long gone!
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
Living standards will fall further this year than at any time since records began in 1956, it emerged on Wednesday, while the tax burden will hit its highest point since just after the Second World War.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Gorgeous picture
though he grumbles about the trees.
Wtf?!!!
I love trees.
I also like leaves and hate leaf blowers, which makes Surrey problematic. If you really feel the need to sweep away the beautiful carpet of autumn colours there's nothing wrong with a garden rake which is silent, non-polluting and excellent exercise.
Russia seems to be slowly moving beyond 'special operation' euphemism. RT editor Margarita Simonyan is now talking about how good it is that Russia can have a new generation of heroes to compare with the people who fought in World War 2.
What a beautiful morning, sunny and calm, 11C - warmest morning of the year so far - the sun glinting off a still sea with just a thin layer of mist so that the waiting container ship, with the latest delivery of Amazon tat from China, looks half submerged in a sea of milk.
Warmest morning? Wow. Where do you live? Pretty nippy in E&W, although beautiful.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Gorgeous picture
though he grumbles about the trees.
Wtf?!!!
I love trees.
I also like leaves and hate leaf blowers, which makes Surrey problematic. If you really feel the need to sweep away the beautiful carpet of autumn colours there's nothing wrong with a garden rake which is silent, non-polluting and excellent exercise.
To be fair, they do take a lot of light off his flat. Not my trees though!
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks.
Very true.
The manufacturers desperately try to get us to buy this year's version of our favoured shoe which they market as having upgrades and that it will be better than ever. So they'll get us to fork out £75+ Nike are shockers for this.
The canny thing is to try and buy a new version of a previous year's model. Hunt around and it's sometimes possible to snap them up for £50 or less.
You just have to watch out for fakes. I bought a pair once in a slick Vientiane shop after my existing ones were stolen outside my hotel room door up river. When I got to the checkout I casually asked in French if they were genuine. The shopkeeper just laughed, 'Genuine? Of course they're not genuine.'
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Gorgeous picture
though he grumbles about the trees.
Wtf?!!!
I love trees.
I also like leaves and hate leaf blowers, which makes Surrey problematic. If you really feel the need to sweep away the beautiful carpet of autumn colours there's nothing wrong with a garden rake which is silent, non-polluting and excellent exercise.
I agree with Casino, Hampshire is great. I am on the Surrey border so less than an hour from London by train but still have access to all that Surrey countryside. I live in a flat but we do have a shared garden and I have a nature reserve within five minutes walk (and access to a lot of Army training land). However I do like having easy access to facilities and being able to go to the shops, pub etc on foot so I think I am a towny by heart. Public transport round here is either great (commuter trains to London) or dire (buses pretty much non-existent) so when I retire my plan is to move to a larger town or city somewhere with good public transport and links to rail and motorway.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
Don't forget the email to Decathlon politely explaining why.
It does make a small difference, even if you don't want to make an exhibition of yourself on Twitter or lie down in front of a steeplechase.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
i grew up in a village right on the edge of Sherwood Forest so Sherwood Forest is my fondest place in the world I think - a place to go to to relax and think as I know it inside out and can go to bits of it where you rarely see anyone else all day. Must say though that the wider surrounding area of Mansfield and Ashfield have no sentimentality to me as I found them insular and negative places in the main (always individual exceptions of course) . Love London where i spent my young adulthood working and love Bradford where I went to university. Abroad , my spiritual homes are New York , Las Vegas ,Canada (well the bits I have been to ) and Romania .
Generally the type of places that leave me cold are suburbia -I like inner cities, like countryside but find the in-between boring
I've noted before that the quickest and cheapest way to boost defence capability is to increase the amount of munitions held in reserve. Big ticket items take years.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
With you entirely and I also think the pandemic shifted a lot of people's pov to yours. Leon may not approve but I note that he travels a lot away from the city.
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
The view from my bedroom this morning. Birds singing, and week old lambs with their mothers by the hedge. Yet I am only 20 minutes from work in a vibrant mid sized city. Being at the edge of suburbia is great.
Gorgeous picture
though he grumbles about the trees.
Wtf?!!!
I love trees.
I also like leaves and hate leaf blowers, which makes Surrey problematic. If you really feel the need to sweep away the beautiful carpet of autumn colours there's nothing wrong with a garden rake which is silent, non-polluting and excellent exercise.
To be fair, they do take a lot of light off his flat. Not my trees though!
TBLUTU it is possible in London, as a very green city - but you need money or a position.
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
For quality of life, what I have had since leaving London far exceeds what I had when I was there in many ways - but only since we had a family. Being young in London when I was young in London was epic. You could even afford to buy your own place.
Apparently Renault got targeted by Anonymous, as well as Zelenskyy in the French Parliament
It worked
I imagine the reality of inability of being able to parts is as much of an issue. Perhaps the bosses have been informed how the hell are we supposed to make modern cars without any computer chips.
The ancer to that question is China, and while it will take a few months to set up, and maybe some of the chips will not be as good/reliable, and the Chines companies will probably charge a bit more, I suspect that the factories will restart soon enough just 'owned' by the government.
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
Here's the thing: almost every piece of complex electronics in the world contains cores by ARM, Intel, NVidia, MIPS or AMD.
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
Are you sure those contracts will be Chinese law / Chinese venue?
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
It's only virtue signaling if you broadcast it. Otherwise it is just being virtuous.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
For us, it is what works rather than style - at least for exercise clothes. And Decathlon are rather good IMO. So it's a bit of a shame that we're going to have to try to find other clothes that fit our body shapes.
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
I find running kit lasts pretty much forever, other than shoes and socks. I still have wearable kit from when I started 10 years ago. And far too much, as I keep getting T-shirt with race entries. It's a bit like beer festival glasses: I now have a cupboard full and only keep glasses from festivals I am personally involved with. Of which, thankfully, there will be a couple again this year.
I ran over 2,700 miles last year. A pair of running trainers probably lasts 1,000 miles at most - less if you want them to remain comfortable. Tops and shorts get worn and torn, especially when running off-road. Many running tops are little more than an array of holes sewn together, and get damaged easily.
I find I cannot wear many trainers because I have metal in an ankle - if the shoe touches that, it can cause my agony. Therefore when I find a pair of shoes or boots that works, I tend to buy three or four pairs at once and store them.
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available. Probably all Russia car production will stop soon. Western sanctions bite. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1506724668413251590
A good start. Now what about the others.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
Some might call it virtue signalling, but Mrs J and myself are after some new running and walking clothes. For the last couple of years, we have been ordering from Decathlon. Today we will be ordering from a different company.
Send an email to their corporate communications explaining why - if they don’t know they won’t notice. And copy the daily mail 😂
Another key finding: despite Chancellor’s claim he was cutting taxes for 31 million workers, around 27 million (seven in eight workers) will actually pay more in income tax and NI in 2024-25. Only those earning between £11,000 and £13,500 will pay less. https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1506898932319858690
Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
Good morning
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
For quality of life, what I have had since leaving London far exceeds what I had when I was there in many ways - but only since we had a family. Being young in London when I was young in London was epic. You could even afford to buy your own place.
I am about to balance off what others have done in the past - big house in the country, office in London. Flying in as a commuter is still new enough to be fun, will get used to 80 nights a year in hotels again.
Living up here is totally worth it. A community that cares. Endless fresh air and amazing coastal scenery on the doorstep. And the mountains not that far away - drove to Glasgow on Monday and took an extra few hours to go the highland route. Driving into Fort William from the north having driven south from my house was a bit of a mind-blower as its always been one of the northerly jump off points after a long drive from my home in the south.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
i grew up in a village right on the edge of Sherwood Forest so Sherwood Forest is my fondest place in the world I think - a place to go to to relax and think as I know it inside out and can go to bits of it where you rarely see anyone else all day. Must say though that the wider surrounding area of Mansfield and Ashfield have no sentimentality to me as I found them insular and negative places in the main (always individual exceptions of course) . Love London where i spent my young adulthood working and love Bradford where I went to university. Abroad , my spiritual homes are New York , Las Vegas ,Canada (well the bits I have been to ) and Romania .
Generally the type of places that leave me cold are suburbia -I like inner cities, like countryside but find the in-between boring
Yesterday's budget seemed to me to suffer from expectations management. Rishi simply cannot protect us from the squeeze in living standards that come with current energy prices. It's impossible. He also has painfully overstretched public finances as a result of the pandemic and the generous support that the government provided during it. That meant that even the little he did do was more in the token gesture territory.
But the biggest problem, by far, is inflation. The BoE monetary policy committee has really screwed up here allowing a domestic bubble of inflation that they could have restrained with earlier interest rate rises to combine with inflationary international pressures from fuel and other disruptions to world trade to get seriously out of control. This is going to cause chaos throughout our economy. The sharpest fall in living standards since 1956 will force industrial action, particularly in the private sector where unions are strongest, throughout the year as workers try to limit the damage. Fiscal drift will push the effective tax rates of many ever higher. It's going to be a tough year and those who bet on a Tory lead in March are on a loser.
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
I miss London because it's where I am from. I only feel truly at home when I am there. I know when I am walking the streets of Kentish Town, Camden Town, Hampstead and Highgate, as well as tramping over the Heath, that it's what my parents, grandparents and their parents did before me. For that reason, it is always going to be incredibly special. It's great to know it's there.
I have never really felt that degree of attachment to place, having moved house every couple of years as a child, then to med school in London and eventually to suburban Leicester. I am slightly jealous of those who have a more specific heimat feeling. I have fond memories of my time in the smoke, and enjoy visiting it, but not as much as getting back to suburban Leicester. I think in terms of quality of life and affordability, around here is hard to beat.
i grew up in a village right on the edge of Sherwood Forest so Sherwood Forest is my fondest place in the world I think - a place to go to to relax and think as I know it inside out and can go to bits of it where you rarely see anyone else all day. Must say though that the wider surrounding area of Mansfield and Ashfield have no sentimentality to me as I found them insular and negative places in the main (always individual exceptions of course) . Love London where i spent my young adulthood working and love Bradford where I went to university. Abroad , my spiritual homes are New York , Las Vegas ,Canada (well the bits I have been to ) and Romania .
Generally the type of places that leave me cold are suburbia -I like inner cities, like countryside but find the in-between boring
I grew up on the Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire border and all that country up through the villages and into the Dales feels like home, even though my family moved away nearly 40 years ago.
Comments
A top 10% earner in central London with a giant mortgage and 12 children is probably right to claim they aren't "rich".
But I get that it’s next to the Peak District and probably hit its aesthetic apex in the Georgian period.
So why doesn’t the council (re-)design a Georgian town centre, in the appropriate stone, and suggest that residential development take the form of garden squares of similarly-clad terraces?
Then leave it to developers to fill it in, knowing that they’ve the council behind them?
Kind of like Poundbury but less 80s looking.
Well no, what you are actually claiming is, most people feel hard up, want more money, cheesed off at thought of credit crunch on their household budgets. If that is what you are claiming, which it sounds like, then I can’t agree with you. The vast majority know this coming squeeze is going hit their disposable income but not threaten them or know it is going to threaten them, tip them in or further into poverty. People do know where they are in this.
I have a lot more on this subject (like Leon I am a student of architecture and urbanism) and pastiche is a big risk if this stuff is done badly.
So let’s not do it badly.
From BBC
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been delivering nightly video addresses since the start of the war, has called on people around the world to publicly protest on Thursday - one month since Russia's invasion.
I do think media fatigue is setting in, but the longer he can get people focused and competing with one another to provide Ukraine the most support, the better.
Must work on some people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/world/europe/ukraine-germany-military-russia-scholz-lithuania.html
But the other killer is that we mostly want lots of car parking space and road space to match, and that does really bad things to the density calculations, so the sums don't work and neither does the layout look quite right.
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1506739285227147268?t=rxopeljpyp3NsiRWJZWUVg&s=19
I have read quite a lot, recently, on the importance of morale in an army. And it certainly appears that Russian troops morale is likely to be rock bottom. But when was it never thus? Historically Russia have always got their troops to fight by making the prospect of not fighting more terrifying - whether prodding the arrow fodder out to face the Mongols at swordpoint or threatening death to the families of those who wouldn't advance against the Germans.
I suppose the difference now is demographic: Russia does not have a limitless well of young men to call upon to replace those pointlessly sent to their doom. At some point they'll run out of troops.
I am not talking about gas price as obviously this is a global market but specifically about the ability to supply Germany with sufficient gas
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10645795/Britain-sends-Ukraine-6-000-missiles-flame-freedom-alive-Ukraine.html
Seriously though, this could be the project Boris has been waiting for. Nobody really *cares* about Derby, not even people from Derbyshire. So there’ll be less mad nimbyism and vested interests to overcome.
Let’s make Derby great again.
We are not all in this credit crunch together Farooq! So many have no justification to whine like your Christie about their struggle.
The recession that is coming is a bit different I admit, as people on all sorts of incomes can get laid off, struggle to find work, and struggle to pay bills. That’s the greater threat of recession, it takes away incomes.
* the components are actually manufactured nearly exclusively in England.
We live in one of the Edinburgh four in a block flats, so we have a patch of garden which is ours alone, but because we are in one of the upper flats, it's just not as convenient to use as a garden on a semi-detached would be. It makes a surprisingly large difference to its utility. Even if you just want to do something simple like sit out in a chair with a drink on a summer's evening, it's just so much more hassle, you have to be almost as organised as if you were taking a picnic to the park.
“If your argument is that people have a good sense of their own privilege, then... well, good luck.”
Your argument based on taking a cynical, maybe quasi moral preachy line that people, at least a lot to most people, don’t, when they are being honest when they kneel naked beside their bed and talk to their God, don’t have a good sense of their own privilege? Is that your argument?
Then you are definitely wrong. Most people do, I’m sure. 😌
Too many cars kills a city. Either there isn't enough road space for them all, and you have gridlock, or you have to have so much space for cars that the city is hostile and unpleasant to walk around.
People think Nottingham is close to the Peak District, but it isn't, really. It's a good hour away; a drive through interminable small towns. Whereas start from the northern suburbs of Derby and, while you're not in the Peak District straight away, you're immediately into the pleasant countryside of the lower Derwent valley, which is almost as good as.
I once drew a map encircling all of the areas I thought of as home. Derby wasn't in it. But of all the cities in the East Midlands, Derby was closest to touching distance. You can almost see the hills that home starts on the other side of. The northern suburbs feel as if the north is about to start just a bit further up.
Whereas Nottingham felt very Midlands. The light was different. The nice countryside to the south and east was in the wrong direction and abutted alien places like Lincolnshire. It was only 60 miles or so from where I was born, yet felt a long way from home (in a way that, say, Cumbria or North Yorkshire does not).
It's not just about Northernliness - Hull, for example, is north of were I am from yet feels equally unlike home.
And also, as I say, Derby has some absolutely splendid pubs (as do Nottingham and Leicester, to be fair), which is as much as you need from a city centre.
In any case, begins to sound like Putin has run out of patience in trying to provoke NATO involvement in Ukraine, and so he's going to test German military preparedness by trying to link Kaliningrad to Belarus via Lithuania, and provoke a less embarrassing to lose war with NATO.
Sleep well everyone!
This doesn't mean that pulling out was the wrong thing to do, but ....
The contracts that Chinese companies have with said chip designers will prohibit export to countries which have sanctions against them (something Ubiquiti Networks discovered to their cost a few years ago).
The Chinese government could go two ways here - they could indicate to ZTE or whoever that their contracts are sacrosanct; or they could say "pssst, we'll have your back, and no court in China will ever rule you did wrong".
We don't know which way yet.
Clifnotes,
a) they nicked these leased planes, but with no easy access to parts they will have to cannibalise them in order to keep flying (and safety standards are going to go out the window)
b) China Comac could sell their own rip-off of Airbus, but chances are still lots of Western IP in it.
If we can't get any LNG cargoes (which is obviously not going to happen), then it has pretty severe issues for the UK's ability to generate power.
My point is that the UK will be badly affected by Russia ceasing gas exports to Germany, because that means that the UK and Germany will both be bidding on a relatively small number of spot LNG cargoes.
I don't really think that's a particularly controversial point.
Now, we can argue about the extent of the impact. I would note that the UK has (unfortunately) shuttered a lot of coal stations and has limited gas storage. On the other hand, we are a far less energy intensive country than Germany.
The ultimate impact will be that electricity prices in both countries will go through the roof.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533
A couple of years ago, the head of ARM's Chinese division got sacked by his board. Except he refused to leave, and called the division independent of the head company.
Essentially, ARM China is currently an independent company, and could do what the heck it likes.
https://aibusiness.com/document.asp?doc_id=772006
https://hexus.net/business/news/corporate/144478-arm-china-boss-goes-rogue/
It's quite an amazing situation. He has essentially stolen ARM China, along with its bank accounts. He won't give a damn about exporting to Russia if the Chinese government allow him.
Wasn't expecting that.
So no, they're not just licences.
It's quite an incredible situation. Oher western companies should look very carefully at what happened and protect their interests.
WordHurdle 129 5/6 #wordhurdle #peace
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https://www.wordle2.in
"Sunak never set off to do this, but his role as Johnson’s CFO has made him responsible for helping complete Britain’s transition to a low-growth, high tax economy. The numbers are horrifying.
Even after Sunak’s modest, performative tax relief, the tax to GDP ratio will have increased by 3.3 percentage points of GDP by 2025-6 compared with 2019-20. The overall tax burden will surge from 33 per cent of GDP to 36.3 per cent, the highest since Clement Attlee’s hard-Left administration in the 1940s. Public spending will have increased by 2.1 per cent of GDP, to levels last reached sustainably in the 1970s. This is what a technocratic Labour government would do, minus the wealth taxes and the class warfare."
[...]
"Yet Sunak made a terrible mistake by not scrapping his NIC hike, and an even worse one by defying Boris Johnson when the PM was at his weakest, forcing him to stick to this daft, destructive policy. He was reduced to spending his Spring Statement tinkering and tweaking. What’s the point of hiking NICs and then cutting income tax?
It is likely that the voters will turn on the Tories as the cost of living crisis intensifies. If so, we must hope that Johnson doesn’t choose to make Sunak his scapegoat."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/23/tories-dont-deserve-survive-keep-treating-voters-like-fools/
Every time someone sticks up a thread telling us there will be a tory lead I have a wry smile to myself. The evidence suggests you may be waiting for Godot. The tories are in big trouble.
This has been a shambolic Government and the unhappiest period in this country's post-war history. The electorate will take it out on them.
ELINT News
A ship is reportedly on fire at Berdyansk port in Russian occupied southern-Ukraine on the Sea of Azov coast
https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1506867101981499395
Hampshire is great. As for restaurants and bars there are superb gastropubs near me - some within walking distance of a mile or two but I have no issue with a 10 minute drive - and wonderful military and heritage museums all over the county, as well as national parks like the South Downs or New Forest. There are great beaches here and on the Isle of Wight. There are interesting cities like Winchester and Portsmouth. There are NT and English Heritage attractions. There are battle re-enactments. There's loads of stuff for kids all over the place. There are steam railways. There are regional theatres nearby too which all national comedians and big musical acts tour to. It's green, open, clean and beautiful - I can breathe.
If I want to go to the theatre or an art gallery (does anyone really enjoy that?) I can just get the train into town for an evening.
I don't feel I'm missing anything.
There seem to be plenty of signs of informal co-operation and in this internet age increasingly savvy voters. As an anecdote I know exactly who I have to vote for in order to boot out the tories: a few clicks and it's all laid out in front of me. And I receive plenty of reminders from various sources (post, internet, texts) about who to vote for.
I just wonder, non-confrontationally, whether you're sufficiently differentiating formal electoral pacts from an increasingly aware electorate on the ground? Or is this wishful thinking on my part?!
Not sure I buy into your comment and I don't think Mike Smithson does?
Because it's now possible to do lots of jobs from home, during the pandemic people increasingly began to wonder what on earth was the point of living in a crowded city.
It's not even that great eating out is confined to London. There's fine dining everywhere and despite Brexit etc. you can buy super ingredients at supermarkets, health food shops and even grow your own with the internet opening up recipes galore.
I totally agree with you: when I'm out of town I can breathe. I want to move into the country permanently when I can.
This was TASS two days ago:
PARIS, March 22. /TASS/. All French companies working in Russia remained on the Russian market, the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry told reporters on Monday.
"Not a single French enterprise left Russia," a representative of the chamber said, criticizing the sanctions imposed against Russia that "hurt the middle class". At the same time, the representative pointed out that "there is no danger for French citizens who continue to live and work in Russia".
https://tass.com/economy/1425415
Now that the immediate sight of Blubbery Boris rushing out to Ukraine's aid with, erm, no aid has worn off the polls seem to have settled back to a comfortable Labour lead. I doubt whether yesterday's shocker will help the tories so I can't see how they're supposed to get a lead with anything other than an outlier.
And ahead? Can anyone really see them picking up substantially given the economy and this buffoon at the helm?
So we will come into a General Election with, I think, a very interesting scenario. Historically it's a tall order for Labour to overturn an 80-seat majority into an outright one of their own. It's possible but unlikely.
Which could leave a very intriguing situation. Will they have sufficient for a Lib-Lab pact and preserve the union? Or will they be forced to acquiesce to the SNP demands for indyref2 as the price for power?
One to watch.
Living in a flat in London - it suits some people, but others not so much. I think the biggest problem is that London is too crowded, and just too big, all in all. If I could start again I would probably choose to live in the suburbs of a second tier city.
Being an ethical consumer, particularly of textiles does throw up many dilemmas though. A lot of the alternatives come from China...
Incidentally, one of my neighbours is a retired binman in social housing, and has the same view, though he grumbles about the trees.
However, with luck the window-cleaner should come today or tomorrow.
And, no, I'm in the attic of my bungalow, and my ladder climbing days are long gone!
(Incidentally, it always feels good to know you have worn out running / walking clothes. A sign you've done lots of exercise. Unless, as I did once, you realise your shorts are worn out when you're in the middle of a run, and a bit of your crotch is showing...)
🔓 This article is currently free to read 👇 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/23/rishi-sunak-presides-biggest-fall-living-standards-record/
I love trees.
I also like leaves and hate leaf blowers, which makes Surrey problematic. If you really feel the need to sweep away the beautiful carpet of autumn colours there's nothing wrong with a garden rake which is silent, non-polluting and excellent exercise.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lindseyhilsum/status/1506876467329835008
Another poem by the Ukrainian national poet Taras Shevchenko
http://sites.utoronto.ca/elul/Ukr_Lit/Vol04/06-Shevchenko-poems-Motyl.pdf…
Water your freedom
with the blood of oppressors.
And then remember me
with gentle whispers
and kind words
in the great family
of the newly free.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506892436450254848
The manufacturers desperately try to get us to buy this year's version of our favoured shoe which they market as having upgrades and that it will be better than ever. So they'll get us to fork out £75+
Nike are shockers for this.
The canny thing is to try and buy a new version of a previous year's model. Hunt around and it's sometimes possible to snap them up for £50 or less.
You just have to watch out for fakes. I bought a pair once in a slick Vientiane shop after my existing ones were stolen outside my hotel room door up river. When I got to the checkout I casually asked in French if they were genuine. The shopkeeper just laughed, 'Genuine? Of course they're not genuine.'
It does make a small difference, even if you don't want to make an exhibition of yourself on Twitter or lie down in front of a steeplechase.
Generally the type of places that leave me cold are suburbia -I like inner cities, like countryside but find the in-between boring
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1506858348905332738
The amount of weapons that Germany could give to Ukraine has reached its limit, said Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck
I've noted before that the quickest and cheapest way to boost defence capability is to increase the amount of munitions held in reserve.
Big ticket items take years.
I always enjoyed living just off Parliament Hill.
He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.
And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.
Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.
I find I cannot wear many trainers because I have metal in an ankle - if the shoe touches that, it can cause my agony. Therefore when I find a pair of shoes or boots that works, I tend to buy three or four pairs at once and store them.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1506728478359572494
Sr. US Defense official says no indications that #Belarus military is preparing to join the fight in #Ukraine
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1506898932319858690
I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling
I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics
This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward
A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this
Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending
I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax
However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals
Living up here is totally worth it. A community that cares. Endless fresh air and amazing coastal scenery on the doorstep. And the mountains not that far away - drove to Glasgow on Monday and took an extra few hours to go the highland route. Driving into Fort William from the north having driven south from my house was a bit of a mind-blower as its always been one of the northerly jump off points after a long drive from my home in the south.
But the biggest problem, by far, is inflation. The BoE monetary policy committee has really screwed up here allowing a domestic bubble of inflation that they could have restrained with earlier interest rate rises to combine with inflationary international pressures from fuel and other disruptions to world trade to get seriously out of control. This is going to cause chaos throughout our economy. The sharpest fall in living standards since 1956 will force industrial action, particularly in the private sector where unions are strongest, throughout the year as workers try to limit the damage. Fiscal drift will push the effective tax rates of many ever higher. It's going to be a tough year and those who bet on a Tory lead in March are on a loser.