Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
I reckon the ones who will get hammered the most are the ones with introductory deals ending soon.
I think its even widespread than that. When was the last time interest rates were anywhere near 3-4-5%. There has to be most people in their 40s, even 50s, who never experienced paying that.
I'm 47, and I remember interest rates being about 6% in... 2007.
It's extraordinary to look at the charts of interest rates and realise just how low they have been for how long. Prior to the crash I think I'm right in saying they'd never at any time before (and I mean any time) fallen below 4.5%, but since 2009 if I read it right they've never gone above 1%. 13 years of previously unimaginable lows.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
There's no discussion to be had, we turn off the gas and pray that summer arrives early and isn't unbearably hot.
Today I was in Manchester and met up with colleagues for the first time since before Christmas. After work, 'management' put their hands in their pockets for two rounds of drinks.
Trains on time too.
Putting aside the imminent thermonuclear armageddon, not a bad day.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
Today I was in Manchester and met up with colleagues for the first time since before Christmas. After work, 'management' put their hands in their pockets for two rounds of drinks.
Trains on time too.
Putting aside the imminent thermonuclear armageddon, not a bad day.
Question for general discussion, 2 years after lockdown 1: do you prefer things being like now with no lockdown, or like then with lockdown?
I am in the now/no lockdown camp; though just to be clear I'd put up with a lot worse than lockdown if it had any useful effect on the Ukrainians, or the poor in this country.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
I reckon the ones who will get hammered the most are the ones with introductory deals ending soon.
I think its even widespread than that. When was the last time interest rates were anywhere near 3-4-5%. There has to be most people in their 40s, even 50s, who never experienced paying that.
I'm 47, and I remember interest rates being about 6% in... 2007.
It's extraordinary to look at the charts of interest rates and realise just how low they have been for how long. Prior to the crash I think I'm right in saying they'd never at any time before (and I mean any time) fallen below 4.5%, but since 2009 if I read it right they've never gone above 1%. 13 years of previously unimaginable lows.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
There's no discussion to be had, we turn off the gas and pray that summer arrives early and isn't unbearably hot.
Scholz ruled that out today…
The Germans have been a real disappointment. After making some positive steps they've been a huge roadblock to ending Putin's reign over Russia. They are unwilling to take even a single dollar of economic pain to help a fellow democratic nation.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
And the people in between vary, which is why we have changes of government and why your party will shortly be out of power until about the time you would be looking to draw your state pension if state pensions were still a thing by then.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
There's no discussion to be had, we turn off the gas and pray that summer arrives early and isn't unbearably hot.
Scholz ruled that out today…
The Germans have been a real disappointment. After making some positive steps they've been a huge roadblock to ending Putin's reign over Russia. They are unwilling to take even a single dollar of economic pain to help a fellow democratic nation.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
And the people in between vary, which is why we have changes of government and why your party will shortly be out of power until about the time you would be looking to draw your state pension if state pensions were still a thing by then.
I was asked that this morning in an economics lesson. Could the 16 year old in question still expect a state pension?
My answer was yes, probably as the likely pinchpoint is the next 30-40 years.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
This government needs to resign, this is utterly shameful.
Chelsea will be allowed to sell tickets to away games, cup matches and fixtures involving the women's team after the UK government made alterations to the club's special licence.
The club have been unable to sell tickets since owner Roman Abramovich was sanctioned by the government as part of its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Under the changed licence, proceeds from ticket sales will go directly to the Premier League and then be distributed to the relevant party.
After letting Usmanov and other bust the sanctions, the UK government is effectively collaborating with Putin.
Why? I always thought that was a terrible part of the rules. It is completely different from enabling Chelsea to go buying and selling players for £100 millions.
Chelsea fans should be punished for chanting Abramovich's name.
I walked round Cap ferrat to Nellcote the Villa made famous by the Stones who recorded Exile on Main Street there 50 years ago. It was sold to an oligarch in 2007 for $128 million. Though nothing special by Cap Ferrat Standards I still couldn't help feeling that compared to Grealish the Oligarch got a bargain
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
I reckon the ones who will get hammered the most are the ones with introductory deals ending soon.
I think its even widespread than that. When was the last time interest rates were anywhere near 3-4-5%. There has to be most people in their 40s, even 50s, who never experienced paying that.
I'm 47, and I remember interest rates being about 6% in... 2007.
But plenty of fiftysomethings will have only become mortgage payers after 2009 so not experienced paying the higher rates, even if they lived through them.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
And the people in between vary, which is why we have changes of government and why your party will shortly be out of power until about the time you would be looking to draw your state pension if state pensions were still a thing by then.
I was asked that this morning in an economics lesson. Could the 16 year old in question still expect a state pension?
My answer was yes, probably as the likely pinchpoint is the next 30-40 years.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
More of the "why don't you f##k off and join the Labour party" messaging.....
Have you considered that perhaps an economy that is working for a wider number of people is both the right thing to do, desirable for the country as a whole and ultimately advantageous to the Tory party staying in government?
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
Entire "look how short Sunak is!" schtick is as funny as a rubber crutch, and sub-adolescent to boot.
EDIT - Fun fact (per wiki) average British soldier in WW1 was 5'7" same as Rishi Sunak
Agreed. I’m on the short side of six foot, but have never thought that mocking people for their height is funny or interesting. It’s just another form of prejudice. Sunak has just delivered a shite budget: mock him for that, it’s his fault. The height jibes are absolutely pathetic.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
To be honest in that photo Sunak doesn't look that short, he just appears to be talking to the BFG.
What are the odds Boris asked around to find the tallest MP available just to piss off Sunak?
Sadly I think this is quite likely.
Johnson is barely taller than Sunak. He would have to be preternaturally stupid to try a stunt like...yes you're right, it's perfectly possible.
Naah, 5'9 is just non-tall, 5'6" is short
I think. I am happy to report I am just millimetrically north of the great 6' divide, and all you people look like little ants to me.
Should discrimination against short people be outlawed.
Not a protected characteristic, unless you can argue that it has racial implications (which in Sunak's case it might). Probably should be, with exceptions for the odd trade like shelf stacking.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
I agree. We are at close to full employment - if firms do not raise wages in most sectors then they'll soon finding themselves short of staff as they move to companies that will.
Entire "look how short Sunak is!" schtick is as funny as a rubber crutch, and sub-adolescent to boot.
EDIT - Fun fact (per wiki) average British soldier in WW1 was 5'7" same as Rishi Sunak
Agreed. I’m on the short side of six foot, but have never thought that mocking people for their height is funny or interesting. It’s just another form of prejudice. Sunak has just delivered a shite budget: mock him for that, it’s his fault. The height jibes are absolutely pathetic.
He's so bad he hasn't even managed that, it's a shite Spring Statement.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
The Ministry of Propaganda will probably need to up its workload to compensate, so there will at least be more jobs available there.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
More of the "why don't you f##k off and join the Labour party" messaging.....
Have you considered that perhaps an economy that is working for a wider number of people is both desirable and ultimately advantageous to the Tory party staying in government?
Or the SNP. I've said I'd like to see him canvas in somewhere like Niddrie. In a year's time would be even better.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
On the contrary. It is a one nation, English nationalist party. Not a UK wide one.
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
To be honest in that photo Sunak doesn't look that short, he just appears to be talking to the BFG.
What are the odds Boris asked around to find the tallest MP available just to piss off Sunak?
Sadly I think this is quite likely.
Johnson is barely taller than Sunak. He would have to be preternaturally stupid to try a stunt like...yes you're right, it's perfectly possible.
Naah, 5'9 is just non-tall, 5'6" is short
I think. I am happy to report I am just millimetrically north of the great 6' divide, and all you people look like little ants to me.
Should discrimination against short people be outlawed.
It strikes me as equivalent to outlawing discrimination against ugly people. It's unfair such discrimination exists, but I'm not sure it's worthy of being a protected characteristic.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their core principles of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the underlying belief.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
I think it is a function of technology. A mix of the polling analysis that can be done with big data and the micro targeting of messages via social media.
That's the nature of wind: it's cheap when it's blowing, but if there's a high pressure system stuck over the middle of the UK, it ain't going to be generating much.
We know he has money worries, and all that gold wallpaper is going to stare back him accusatorily when he realises he can’t stump up for another Daylesford readymeal delivery.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
I agree. We are at close to full employment - if firms do not raise wages in most sectors then they'll soon finding themselves short of staff as they move to companies that will.
Or. A whole bunch of businesses reliant on discretionary spending.will go to the wall. Thus suppressing wages and enabling us all to be poorer.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
SFAICS any government of any party will have no choice but to rely on a mixture of inflation and low interest rates in order to stave off impossible debt repayments and keep debt at a manageable proportion of GDP.
Remarkably that is exactly what we have.
The Tory problem will be to manage this without losing support because of inflation and recession; the Labour problem will be how to pretend they can do different.
Entire "look how short Sunak is!" schtick is as funny as a rubber crutch, and sub-adolescent to boot.
EDIT - Fun fact (per wiki) average British soldier in WW1 was 5'7" same as Rishi Sunak
Agreed. I’m on the short side of six foot, but have never thought that mocking people for their height is funny or interesting. It’s just another form of prejudice. Sunak has just delivered a shite budget: mock him for that, it’s his fault. The height jibes are absolutely pathetic.
Height’s a real weird one. I’m 6’2”. I’m the second shortest out of my regular group of mates weirdly by quite a few inches. Not one is a rugby player just a freakishly large group of about ten chaps.
The shortest of our group is 6’ and he will admit feeling like a midget.
Anyway a female friend is getting married to a chap on the periphery of our group of friends. He shares a first name with one of our friends who is 6’6” and so he’s called “little xxxxxx” because he’s 5’10” to the point where it’s become a major issue as he’s really taken offence at being called “little xxxxx” and has a chip about being relatively short.
I’m sure Rishi loses no sleep about his height as he’s probably quite happy with his life but it can be a big issue for some.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
That's the nature of most renewables; they are inherently intermittent. And that's why you need a generating mix.
If only someone had done a really good video on electricity generation mix:
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
That's the nature of wind: it's cheap when it's blowing, but if there's a high pressure system stuck over the middle of the UK, it ain't going to be generating much.
2days ago it was generating 50%, we were stillburning 20% gas. With more capacity that could have been 0%, saving that gas for today.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
No it isn't, wealthy homeowners did even better under Thatcher and Cameron relative to those on benefits than this government.
Past Labour governments have imposed wealth taxes and increased income tax on the rich and spent more on the public sector and those on benefits ie their core vote, in return.
Tory and Labour governments always reward their people
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
Do you work for a living? If so, the Tories aren’t interested.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
Do you work for a living? If so, the Tories aren’t interested.
At the moment, I appear to be back to not really living, just working....
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
More of the "why don't you f##k off and join the Labour party" messaging.....
Have you considered that perhaps an economy that is working for a wider number of people is both the right thing to do, desirable for the country as a whole and ultimately advantageous to the Tory party staying in government?
If a Tory government is hitting our people there is no point the Tories staying in government. Better to go into opposition than betray such a key Tory principle as support for property owners.
In any case it would lead to largescale defections to RefUK and our voters staying home on polling day too
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
No it isn't, wealthy homeowners did even better under Thatcher and Cameron relative to those on benefits than this government.
Past Labour governments have imposed wealth taxes and increased income tax on the rich and spent more on the public sector and those on benefits ie their core vote, in return.
Tory and Labour governments always reward their people
Yes, but this is so naked and disgusting that you have natural, not short of a bob tories like me saying look, this is just wrong, why move people from poor to destitute when you could move a different set of people from reasonably well off to actually, still surviving pretty comfortably. This will cost you electorally.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
So you have no interest in trying to win my vote....well that a view I suppose. I have a feeling not a winning one at the next GE.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
Governments are planning to shift all road transport to battery powered vehicles, but they're leaving the details of the transition to the private sector.
That's an example of where a failure to plan ahead will lead to supply bottlenecks and future inflation. It doesn't have to be that way. There are issues that can be anticipated.
With a tight labour market in the UK my expectation is that a fair proportion of workers will be able to demand inflation matching pay increases, with the cost largely passed on as increased prices.
I wonder how much consumer demand is from pensioners these days? The textbook way to control inflation is to increase interest rates to clobber demand - but that's not going to affect demand from pensioners. So presumably those people of working age (and business investment) will have to be clobbered even harder to reduce demand and inflation - unless something is done to take money out of the economy by taking it out of the hands of wealthy pensioners.
God knows how anyone wins an election by promising to tax asset-rich pensioners though. It would be more controversial than income tax was when it was first introduced.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
More of the "why don't you f##k off and join the Labour party" messaging.....
Have you considered that perhaps an economy that is working for a wider number of people is both the right thing to do, desirable for the country as a whole and ultimately advantageous to the Tory party staying in government?
If a Tory government is hitting our people there is no point the Tories staying in government. Better to go into opposition than betray such a key Tory principle as support for property owners
I know you are having one of your trolling moments, but you are so inconsistent even in your consistency, if that makes sense. You've made it very clear you regard supporting a political party to be like supporting a football club, that you will support your team regardless of what policies they might pursue because you are a loyalist. You're very pround of how loyal your are to the party. We also know parties change radically over time as political reality shifts around, and loyalists adapt to that - there is not a single party which is unchanged.
So when you pretend there are lines to defend against all else it just makes a mockery of your claims to uber-loyalty, of which you are so proud.
Either you are the ultimate party loyalist, in which case the policy offer doesn't matter. Or you believe in certain core principles which must never be breached. You cannot be both, since if you are the latter you would not defend the party under all circumstances so rigorously, since you'd see how it changes and would be a supporter, but not a super loyalist.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
At risk of being picky, that seems unlikely given the Romans had central heating.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
Governments are planning to shift all road transport to battery powered vehicles, but they're leaving the details of the transition to the private sector.
That's an example of where a failure to plan ahead will lead to supply bottlenecks and future inflation. It doesn't have to be that way. There are issues that can be anticipated.
With a tight labour market in the UK my expectation is that a fair proportion of workers will be able to demand inflation matching pay increases, with the cost largely passed on as increased prices.
I wonder how much consumer demand is from pensioners these days? The textbook way to control inflation is to increase interest rates to clobber demand - but that's not going to affect demand from pensioners. So presumably those people of working age (and business investment) will have to be clobbered even harder to reduce demand and inflation - unless something is done to take money out of the economy by taking it out of the hands of wealthy pensioners.
God knows how anyone wins an election by promising to tax asset-rich pensioners though. It would be more controversial than income tax was when it was first introduced.
If we say we need it for Napoleonic Wars then perhaps enough are jingoistically demented to go for it.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
No it isn't, wealthy homeowners did even better under Thatcher and Cameron relative to those on benefits than this government.
Past Labour governments have imposed wealth taxes and increased income tax on the rich and spent more on the public sector and those on benefits ie their core vote, in return.
Tory and Labour governments always reward their people
That's a load of crap. Blair was comfortable with people like my parents benefiting from his policies, it's why Labour smashed the crap out of the Tories for 3 elections. It was only when miserly Brown took over and Labour turned back into the party of benefit scroungers that the Tories got a look in and Dave won a majority on the back of ensuring that everyone benefited from the economic boom, including younger people who tend to not vote Tory.
It's only this government that has taken rewarding "its" voters to the extreme of stealing from young people to hand tax cuts and benefit rises to retired people.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
And you will be the only conservative left
Correction
Millions of conservatives left but not a party to vote for
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
Governments are planning to shift all road transport to battery powered vehicles, but they're leaving the details of the transition to the private sector.
That's an example of where a failure to plan ahead will lead to supply bottlenecks and future inflation. It doesn't have to be that way. There are issues that can be anticipated.
With a tight labour market in the UK my expectation is that a fair proportion of workers will be able to demand inflation matching pay increases, with the cost largely passed on as increased prices.
I wonder how much consumer demand is from pensioners these days? The textbook way to control inflation is to increase interest rates to clobber demand - but that's not going to affect demand from pensioners. So presumably those people of working age (and business investment) will have to be clobbered even harder to reduce demand and inflation - unless something is done to take money out of the economy by taking it out of the hands of wealthy pensioners.
God knows how anyone wins an election by promising to tax asset-rich pensioners though. It would be more controversial than income tax was when it was first introduced.
Just let HYUFD and his party go on about it for a year or two more like he does here. He'll build up a majority consensus no problem at all. Seriously, today was a cracking start.
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yeah I like it. 👍🏻
Like London property Barons.
You seem to think I’m a London property baron. I’m not. I moved to NY and I haven’t sold my family home (and don’t intend to).
The other place is a essentially retirement savings.
Sorry walks I won’t mention two London homes rented out ever again.
If you were a proper property baron, which you are not, you would still be one with most decent values. My alternative budget today would be very much like yours 👍🏻
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
At risk of being picky, that seems unlikely given the Romans had central heating.
Perhaps the dark ages should be called the cold ages.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
Protected the bottom income deciles Reduced VAT on fuel Taken measures to incentivise oil production Ditto home insulation. Scrapped stamp duty on house purchases Increased the NI threshold (as was done)
Forced pensioners to pay NI Levied a windfall tax on oil companies Levied a new tax on property @ 0.5% p.a.*
Left income tax alone.
*With a rebate against stamp duty paid for those who have purchased in the last seven years.
What about Hospitals and Education and other departments whose budgets about to be ravaged by inflation? Should there really be income tax cut after that?
I left income taxes alone.
Essentially my aim would be to fiscally neutral at this juncture, albeit shifting the burden from the poorest income earners to the wealthiest asset owners.
Yes but the former mainly vote Labour and the latter mainly vote Tory and we have a Tory government
So?
So the Tories are not going to hit their own supporters are they?
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
Why don’t the Tories govern for the country at large?
Such an old fashioned view. It's all about acting punitively toward those who dared to not vote for you, that's how you win hearts and minds for the future.
I’m genuinely curious about HYUFD’s response.
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
On the contrary. It is a one nation, English nationalist party. Not a UK wide one.
Not true at all. It delights in dividing the people who don't vote for it in the big cities from the people who do vote for it in small towns. It pits young against old, worker against pensioner, graduate against apprentice.
There's nothing there that is unifying for England, and there are plenty of Scots willing to vote for it.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
I reckon the ones who will get hammered the most are the ones with introductory deals ending soon.
I think its even widespread than that. When was the last time interest rates were anywhere near 3-4-5%. There has to be most people in their 40s, even 50s, who never experienced paying that.
I'm 47, and I remember interest rates being about 6% in... 2007.
And then there are those of us who remember paying 17%
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
At risk of being picky, that seems unlikely given the Romans had central heating.
To be equally picky only very rich romans had it, but yes the idea does go way back, even in the Roman Britain.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
Ummm - aren't you a graduate who voted remain?
Yes statistically as a 40 year old graduate Remain voter I would probably be Starmer Labour or LD or at most a swing voter as I own a property in part with a mortgage.
Obviously there are exceptions, I was talking generally. The average Tory voter is over 50, a home owner, a non graduate and voted Leave.
But I think it is rather telling that TSE, MaxPB, etc, all big Call Me Dave Fans can't get on here fast enough to criticise many of the current government decisions.
If I was a Tory strategist, that would have me rather worried. That's you upwardly mobile middle aged demographic right there, who would have voted Thatcher in a heart beat.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
But Russia will NOT be completely unconnected to world economy? China for one will likely prove a champion sanctions buster, via smuggling if not overt.
During War of 1812 much of New England was anti-war, and some areas continued to trade with Maritime Provinces and Canada (not the same back then) which was absolutely critical to British logistics. In some places Americans delivered the goods by rolling barrels down and across the border.
Smuggling played a somewhat similar role viz-a-viz UK & France for most of 17th century and throughout Napoleonic wars. When he was PM Robert Walpole had a standing order with HIS smuggler for his favorite French clarets, with neither peace nor war (or HM Customs) interfering. And his colleagues, opponents & their successors did the same.
Though think that Pitt the Younger may have taken up port, in order to avoid trading with the enemy?
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
And you will be the only conservative left
He will be the last True Conservative, bravely waving a copy of Monetarism is Not Enough as the ravening Corbynistas overwhelm the barricades he has erected in front of the last private buy to let in Epping, leaving the wreckage of tanks strewn in their wake.
Interest rates. The dog that doesn't bark. I've had Sky News on since 19:00 and not once has the subject of monetary policy come up. Ultimately these fiscal changes are small fry. Want to tackle inflation? Put up interest rates.
I wonder what the % of homeowner would go underwater would be for every say 0.5% increase in interest rates?
There has to be a significant proportion of people with mortgages who have never experienced (or have budgeted for) interest rates anywhere near historical normal levels.
Interest rates have been at more-or-less 0.5% (as high as 0.75%, as low as 0.1%) since early 2009 - 13 year's ago. That is remarkably stable and we have reached the top of the range. I doubt anyone has been impacted too badly yet.
The next stage is market expectations that rates will more than double to around 2% by the end of the year. I think that will start to bite on people with high mortgages, but fixed terms mean it'll take time to be felt.
Beyond that point it's crystal ball time. The Bank of England thinks it'll be enough to bring inflation back to target in the years following. Some predict a recession from the combined squeeze in people's real income (which may in turn reduce inflation). Others that high inflation becomes embedded that forces interest rates higher still.
Threading the needle of bringing down inflation without inducing a recession won't be an easy one.
The idea this round of inflation is temporary is extraordinarily optimistic.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place. Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023. Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
I agree. We are at close to full employment - if firms do not raise wages in most sectors then they'll soon finding themselves short of staff as they move to companies that will.
Or. A whole bunch of businesses reliant on discretionary spending.will go to the wall. Thus suppressing wages and enabling us all to be poorer.
It will most likely be both -some companies will go bust, others will pay high wage rises, others will avoid increasing wages much due to the other firms going to the wall.
The question is which of these will dominate. We can all have our own guesses but no one can say with certainty.
Where I struggle is to see any outcome that will improve the government's popularity.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
Ummm - aren't you a graduate who voted remain?
Yes statistically as a 40 year old graduate Remain voter I would probably be Starmer Labour or LD or at most a swing voter as I own a property in part with a mortgage.
Obviously there are exceptions, I was talking generally. The average Tory voter is over 50, a home owner, a non graduate and voted Leave.
The Tories doing little to ensure the next generation gets on the housing ladder will, ultimately, be their demise.
Entire "look how short Sunak is!" schtick is as funny as a rubber crutch, and sub-adolescent to boot.
EDIT - Fun fact (per wiki) average British soldier in WW1 was 5'7" same as Rishi Sunak
Agreed. I’m on the short side of six foot, but have never thought that mocking people for their height is funny or interesting. It’s just another form of prejudice. Sunak has just delivered a shite budget: mock him for that, it’s his fault. The height jibes are absolutely pathetic.
Height’s a real weird one. I’m 6’2”. I’m the second shortest out of my regular group of mates weirdly by quite a few inches. Not one is a rugby player just a freakishly large group of about ten chaps.
The shortest of our group is 6’ and he will admit feeling like a midget.
Anyway a female friend is getting married to a chap on the periphery of our group of friends. He shares a first name with one of our friends who is 6’6” and so he’s called “little xxxxxx” because he’s 5’10” to the point where it’s become a major issue as he’s really taken offence at being called “little xxxxx” and has a chip about being relatively short.
I’m sure Rishi loses no sleep about his height as he’s probably quite happy with his life but it can be a big issue for some.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
At risk of being picky, that seems unlikely given the Romans had central heating.
To be equally picky only very rich romans had it, but yes the idea does go way back, even in the Roman Britain.
Those chaps the (Later) Victorians also had central heating. But maybe BigG is working to the Roman imperial calendar, or the Japanese one.
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
At risk of being picky, that seems unlikely given the Romans had central heating.
Neither my wife in the North of Scotland or our family in Berwick enjoyed any heating and used to get dressed under the bed clothes in cold weather
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their methods of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the core principle.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
It’s the ideology of a bully, or a street-gang.
In all seriousness, I would have thought I am key demographic for the Tories. Highly educated (that isn't supposed to be a humble brag), relatively well off from a working class background, have entrepreneurial background. Voted Remain, but not an FBPE, more we need to just get on with this. Have voted for all the main parties at some point.
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
You are a graduate who voted Remain, statistically you would almost certainly be a Labour or LD voter. Sorry
So you have no interest in trying to win my vote....well that a view I suppose. I have a feeling not a winning one at the next GE.
You didn't even vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won a majority of 80. Why would the Tories bother trying to win your vote when they don't need it to win?
What we're finding out at the moment is that economies don't run on policy, trade deals or investment breaks: they run on energy.
There’s a real crunch point coming very soon with Putin asking for payment in rubles. It looks like the West basically has a choice between breaking our own sanctions or having the gas turned off.
The gas is going to be turned off, because Putin is going to need every tool in his arsenal to try and get the West to back off sanctions, and this is the only lever he has left.
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Although 63% of our electricity is currently from coal or gas.
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
We have had lovely sunny weather this week and with our heating off and the solar panels performing well our daily energy use has dropped from near £5 a day to around £1.20
You will need it all on next week.
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Extra Jersey as we did in the 1940s and 1950s long before central heating
At risk of being picky, that seems unlikely given the Romans had central heating.
But I think it is rather telling that TSE, MaxPB, etc, all big Call Me Dave Fans can't get on here fast enough to criticise many of the current government decisions.
If I was a Tory strategist, that would have me rather worried. That's you upwardly mobile middle aged demographic right there, who would have voted Thatcher in a heart beat.
I would probably vote for Thatcher right now. She may have been eminently dis likeable but at least she was intelligent, decisive and determined. Even if she did things were wrong, at least she did them because she thought they might improve things in the end.
Comments
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/interest-rate
I wonder how high they will go now?
Today I was in Manchester and met up with colleagues for the first time since before Christmas. After work, 'management' put their hands in their pockets for two rounds of drinks.
Trains on time too.
Putting aside the imminent thermonuclear armageddon, not a bad day.
2022 wage demands and settlements will be all over the place.
Losers from this will be insisting on big rises in 2023.
Winners will be expecting big rises in 2023.
I am in the now/no lockdown camp; though just to be clear I'd put up with a lot worse than lockdown if it had any useful effect on the Ukrainians, or the poor in this country.
It would be really interesting to know just how many people have never experienced even the 3.5% levels.
Thanks for opportunity for me to spring to 45's defense . . . sorta . . .
My answer was yes, probably as the likely pinchpoint is the next 30-40 years.
But of course, I could be entirely wrong.
It would need a Labour government to tax wealthy asset owning Tories more and redistribute more to low earning Labour voters on benefits
https://www.messynessychic.com/2014/12/23/then-and-now-the-rolling-stones-french-villa-of-debauchery/
But March is also a bloody awful time for the Russians to turn the gas off. European countries are warming up, use of gas for domestic heating is declining, and we're heading into the period during which storage facilites are filled up. Europe could survive (admittedly at the cost of more expensive energy imports) until September/October without Russian gas.
But can Russia survive without being connected to the world economy? Can they survive the shuttering of plants due to a lack of imported components? Yes, there'll be food in the shops, but there will probably be little else.
Have you considered that perhaps an economy that is working for a wider number of people is both the right thing to do, desirable for the country as a whole and ultimately advantageous to the Tory party staying in government?
We could do with lots of nice sunny days with strong winds for two months,
Sorry @Anabobazina but that was irresistible...
As far as I can tell, although governments tend to prioritise their base (for ideological as much as psephological reasons), this is the first government that pretty much renounces “one nation” policies in both its rhetoric and its actions.
Kind of Republican-lite.
I always thought at the core of political parties (I don't necessarily mean the greasy pole climbing shysters) that those people believed in trying to make the country a better place for everybody. Now their core principles of doing so, you might disagree with, but that was the underlying belief.
Not, well its not for us to do right, you need to vote us out if you want that.
Terrible for society but possibly inevitable.
https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk
Just as Boris is absurdly simian, and Keir absurdly puce-faced.
He's still going to shaft us, but he's going to use a bit of lube.
We know he has money worries, and all that gold wallpaper is going to stare back him accusatorily when he realises he can’t stump up for another Daylesford readymeal delivery.
A whole bunch of businesses reliant on discretionary spending.will go to the wall. Thus suppressing wages and enabling us all to be poorer.
Remarkably that is exactly what we have.
The Tory problem will be to manage this without losing support because of inflation and recession; the Labour problem will be how to pretend they can do different.
The shortest of our group is 6’ and he will admit feeling like a midget.
Anyway a female friend is getting married to a chap on the periphery of our group of friends. He shares a first name with one of our friends who is 6’6” and so he’s called “little xxxxxx” because he’s 5’10” to the point where it’s become a major issue as he’s really taken offence at being called “little xxxxx” and has a chip about being relatively short.
I’m sure Rishi loses no sleep about his height as he’s probably quite happy with his life but it can be a big issue for some.
Didn’t go too well
https://twitter.com/jeremyherb/status/1506728802054983683?s=21
Now this is just a niche internet forum, but HYUFD has stated that he posts on here to get his debating / campaigning skills up to scratch and be able to win arguments. He seems a man on a mission to ensure I think the worst of them.
If only someone had done a really good video on electricity generation mix:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3G70uXf0s4
Great British Spring.
Brrrrrrrrr.
Past Labour governments have imposed wealth taxes and increased income tax on the rich and spent more on the public sector and those on benefits ie their core vote, in return.
Tory and Labour governments always reward their people
If so, the Tories aren’t interested.
In any case it would lead to largescale defections to RefUK and our voters staying home on polling day too
That's an example of where a failure to plan ahead will lead to supply bottlenecks and future inflation. It doesn't have to be that way. There are issues that can be anticipated.
With a tight labour market in the UK my expectation is that a fair proportion of workers will be able to demand inflation matching pay increases, with the cost largely passed on as increased prices.
I wonder how much consumer demand is from pensioners these days? The textbook way to control inflation is to increase interest rates to clobber demand - but that's not going to affect demand from pensioners. So presumably those people of working age (and business investment) will have to be clobbered even harder to reduce demand and inflation - unless something is done to take money out of the economy by taking it out of the hands of wealthy pensioners.
God knows how anyone wins an election by promising to tax asset-rich pensioners though. It would be more controversial than income tax was when it was first introduced.
So when you pretend there are lines to defend against all else it just makes a mockery of your claims to uber-loyalty, of which you are so proud.
Either you are the ultimate party loyalist, in which case the policy offer doesn't matter. Or you believe in certain core principles which must never be breached. You cannot be both, since if you are the latter you would not defend the party under all circumstances so rigorously, since you'd see how it changes and would be a supporter, but not a super loyalist.
It's only this government that has taken rewarding "its" voters to the extreme of stealing from young people to hand tax cuts and benefit rises to retired people.
Correction
Millions of conservatives left but not a party to vote for
If you were a proper property baron, which you are not, you would still be one with most decent values. My alternative budget today would be very much like yours 👍🏻
DafyddHYUFD the onlygayTory in the village.There's nothing there that is unifying for England, and there are plenty of Scots willing to vote for it.
Obviously there are exceptions, I was talking generally. The average Tory voter is over 50, a home owner, a non graduate and voted Leave.
But I think it is rather telling that TSE, MaxPB, etc, all big Call Me Dave Fans can't get on here fast enough to criticise many of the current government decisions.
If I was a Tory strategist, that would have me rather worried. That's you upwardly mobile middle aged demographic right there, who would have voted Thatcher in a heart beat.
During War of 1812 much of New England was anti-war, and some areas continued to trade with Maritime Provinces and Canada (not the same back then) which was absolutely critical to British logistics. In some places Americans delivered the goods by rolling barrels down and across the border.
Smuggling played a somewhat similar role viz-a-viz UK & France for most of 17th century and throughout Napoleonic wars. When he was PM Robert Walpole had a standing order with HIS smuggler for his favorite French clarets, with neither peace nor war (or HM Customs) interfering. And his colleagues, opponents & their successors did the same.
Though think that Pitt the Younger may have taken up port, in order to avoid trading with the enemy?
The question is which of these will dominate. We can all have our own guesses but no one can say with certainty.
Where I struggle is to see any outcome that will improve the government's popularity.
I am 5ft 6
This lot, however...