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Macron’s campaign gets knocked off course by the Corsican riots – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    I'm glad I didn't think of getting a cab..

    Mum ordered £4,500 Uber to Ukraine after 'one too many drinks'

    A mum claims she ordered a £4,500 taxi to war-torn Ukraine to 'help' after 'one too many drinks'. Leoni Fildes was only saved by having 'insufficient funds' in her account.

    Leoni had been out to celebrate her friend's birthday on Saturday when the pair turned to talk of the war in Ukraine. The 34-year-old claims she had already downed a 'few double pink gins and 'shots of Sambuca' when she drunkenly decided to go there in a taxi to 'help' the Ukrainian cause.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mum-ordered-4500-uber-ukraine-23418648

    What's Putin's excuse ?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    A few thoughts on racial classifications in the US: First, American blacks are about 20 percent white, on the average. (You can see that clearly if you watch, for example, an NBA game.) Second, when Americans talk about Asians, they usually mean East Asians, Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese, rather than South Asians. (I think the reverse is true in Britain.)

    Third, there are growing numbers of mixed race people in the US, and even larger numbers who now say they are mixed race. For example, the current mayor of Seattle, Bruce Harrell, had a black father and a Japanese-American mother. The congresswoman from Tacoma, south of Seattle, is Marilyn Strickland, with a black father and a Korean mother, and so on and on and on.

    Fourth, the American Indian membership rules can only be understood tribe by tribe (and the tribes sometimes change the rules). I knew a university librarian years ago who had three sons with his wife, a Jewish musician. He was from Oklahoma, and part Indian, enough so that he was an enrolled member of the tribe -- I forget which one. Their two older sons were also members of the tribe, but their youngest wasn't, because the tribe changed the rules before he was born.

    (For the record: I have put down "other" on the census form in the last two censuses, and then specified "American" as my small protest at the way politicians and activists attempt to divide us by race.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    I’ve actually SEEN one of these boltholes. A fantastic house in the far southwest corner of the Australian coast, in Western Oz

    I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse

    A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out

    Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
    Is it on the beach?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    If, as a dictator, you find yourself having to make repeated long televised speeches about how strong you are and yet how the traitors are out there undermining your great nation, it kind of speaks to itself about your level of insecurity.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    I’ve actually SEEN one of these boltholes. A fantastic house in the far southwest corner of the Australian coast, in Western Oz

    I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse

    A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out

    Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
    Is it on the beach?
    :lol:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    I had a look at the OSINT thread in Twitter, but it seems to be a zillion people of unknown views chpping in random thoughts and anecdotal evidence - is there some way of selecting the serious analysis?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Absolutely wild
    https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1504148689396412419

    I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.

    Yes, it would be interesting* to see a UK equivalent.
    Is old but here is Ipsos MORI's one from 2014:
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/perceptions-are-not-reality-things-world-gets-wrong


    The UK public thought that 15% of under 16 girls got pregnant every year.
    The survey you've linked to doesn't say this. The question is about 15-19 year old girls, and the 15% is across all countries surveyed rather than just the UK (16%).

    It's less obviously absurd to give that high a figure for 15-19 year old girls as opposed to under 16s, although still very wrong (given the accurate answer in the UK is 3%).
    Ah, the ONS report on the under 16s question but they linked to the Ipsos MORI survey which as you say is asking about a different age range.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/conceptionandfertilityrates/articles/teenagepregnanciesperceptionversusreality/2016-03-09
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Given that we’re all about to die in a nuclear apocalypse, it’s time to start thinking about what we’d eat for a last supper. I’ve been having the same chat in a couple of WhatsApp groups

    Me: I’d have native British oysters from Scott’s (if in season)

    Then maybe a kilo of wild caspian caviar off mother of pearl spoons

    But what do you have for a main?

    Maybe an insanely hot Singapore chicken laksa because you don’t have to worry about it hurting the next day

    My appetite would be eliminated due to the gargantuan amount of class As I would be ingesting.
    A good point well made

    Nonetheless I’d still have the world class meal first, after vigorous sex. The drugs would arrive with the pudding (a tiramisu from the Caffe Gambrinus in Naples)
    If everybody is expected to think about their last supper I think it will need to be home cooked, as the Tiramisu delivery man will probably be saving it for himself.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can just imagine the lardy **** going 'No problem your sheikness, looks like a totally sensible biz decision to me'


    The mother of a P&O worker told a Mirror sister title that P&O staff were told they had "five minutes to get their stuff and get off the ships".

    P&O staff were told they were being laid off by a pre-recorded video message. The message said: "Your final day of employment is today. I do accept that there are no words that can make the situation any better today. I realise that this will have come as a shock to you, and we will provide you with all of the ongoing support possible."

    He then confirmed that all serving crew members would be replaced by a third party company.

    Labour MP Diana Johnson told the Commons today: "I understand from the RMT union that these agency staff, mainly from overseas, are in buses on the quayside with a security firm... wearing balaclavas and taking British crew off these ships.
    I am not sure why she has to make the point they are from overseas. That's all a bit "coming here, taking our jobs", but if this is true it is appalling.
    Labour's position on this is self contradictory and absurd. Diana Johnson sounds like Nigel Farage.
    Shades of Gordon Brown trying to sound like UKIP with his "British Jobs for British Workers" stuff
    Not his finest hour, that, and I think he regrets it. The authentic - and very unUKippy - Gordon Brown was more as per the Mrs Duffy exchange. He's an internationalist at heart.
    Yup - snearing and looking down on their old core voters - sounds like Gordo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Absolutely wild
    https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1504148689396412419

    I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.

    21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance.
    But it is a crowded field.
    Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%

    92% live in NY, California and Texas.
    My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.

    People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %.
    They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.

    Why is that shocking to anyone?
    I found it interesting the misses in the opposite direction
    (Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)

    60% is a good estimate for just about everything.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

    Schwarzenegger is quite an incredible communicator.

    Arnie is great.
    I could be wrong here, but I reckon that Arnie dyes his hair.
    Of course he does - he's an actor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    Yep. He wants digital opinion-formers in the West like us to be getting in a lather about 'will he won't he?' use nukes.

    So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
    Purge the traitors!
    I believe 'crush the saboteurs' is the traditional cry.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    Or you could move to Norfolk now and get used to it....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    I’ve actually SEEN one of these boltholes. A fantastic house in the far southwest corner of the Australian coast, in Western Oz

    I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse

    A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out

    Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
    Is it on the beach?
    :lol:
    If you want to know what that big cloud drifting towards you is, it’s because I’m on smoking form this week.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    I had a look at the OSINT thread in Twitter, but it seems to be a zillion people of unknown views chpping in random thoughts and anecdotal evidence - is there some way of selecting the serious analysis?
    Yes, but it takes time and effort. I’ve done my best to repost the more credible tweets from people with expertise - but there’s a ton of disinformation as well, of course

    FWIW (not much) my take is that this is a feint by Putin. Trying to unnerve the west with some odd air movements (and perhaps practising for the real thing at the same time?)

    The private jets to Dubai are probably the real deal. People fleeing. Only a mad oligarch would stay in Moscow after Putin’s “traitors” speech last night
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Yeah, I think Cornwall's a bad idea. Not least because even if you survive you are then stuck at the end of a peninsula with nowhere to go. If staying in the British Isles, better to take the short hop to Ireland and set up camp somewhere like Cork (though as mentioned on a previous thread Shannon Airport might be at risk). Ireland is ranked 2nd on my escape list, Brazil third. Chile would be great long term but their COVID restrictions on entry are a bit onerous for a quick getaway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    Problem with a lot of that type of game playing and brinkmanship is it can get away from you quite easily.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Absolutely wild
    https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1504148689396412419

    I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.

    21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance.
    But it is a crowded field.
    Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%

    92% live in NY, California and Texas.
    My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.

    People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %.
    They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.

    Why is that shocking to anyone?
    I found it interesting the misses in the opposite direction
    (Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)

    60% is a good estimate for just about everything.

    Only if you want to be as wrong as everybody else!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Absolutely wild
    https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1504148689396412419

    I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.

    21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance.
    But it is a crowded field.
    Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%

    92% live in NY, California and Texas.
    My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.

    People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %.
    They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.

    Why is that shocking to anyone?
    What percentage of people do you reckon are bad with percentages?
    All of them.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    LOL The background radiation from all that granite in Cornwall is probably higher than could be expected from nuclear winter elsewhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    LOL The background radiation from all that granite in Cornwall is probably higher than could be expected from nuclear winter elsewhere.
    Which explains everything...?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    I had a look at the OSINT thread in Twitter, but it seems to be a zillion people of unknown views chpping in random thoughts and anecdotal evidence - is there some way of selecting the serious analysis?
    Yes, but it takes time and effort. I’ve done my best to repost the more credible tweets from people with expertise - but there’s a ton of disinformation as well, of course

    FWIW (not much) my take is that this is a feint by Putin. Trying to unnerve the west with some odd air movements (and perhaps practising for the real thing at the same time?)

    The private jets to Dubai are probably the real deal. People fleeing. Only a mad oligarch would stay in Moscow after Putin’s “traitors” speech last night
    Turning on his own oligarchs who he is nurtured for decades is an odd move. Maybe he has lost the plot totally.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    Uzbekistan’s foreign minister said it won’t recognize the so called LNR and DNR, fully supports Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Also that Uzbekistan will provide a humanitarian aid to Ukraine. This is massive.

    https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1504422639506534406
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    To help force its staff to disembark, P&O 'illegally' hired 16 balaclava-clad and handcuff-trained officers from a private security firm, with the company telling them the job would last a week and be paid at £14.50 an hour.

    Emails sent to security guards drafted in beforehand showed bosses describing a 'fairly high profile task' to be dealt with over the course of a week in Dover. Those enlisted were told to bring 'cuffs and utility belts' but were informed they would 'not need body armour for this task'.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    LOL The background radiation from all that granite in Cornwall is probably higher than could be expected from nuclear winter elsewhere.
    Surprised nobody has considered RAF St Mawgan.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    Plutonium vs fallout is another one where people are rubbish at judging the risks.

    A few years back a Canadian environmentalist was claiming that an ABM system working would leave lumps of plutonium all over Canada. She simply refused to believe the actual evidence that fallout from nuclear explosions in the US would be worse for Canada than a few lumps of plutonium.

    Don't get me wrong. Plutonium isn't a great desert topping. But even the remains of a nuclear fizzle would be a tiny, tiny fraction of the fallout of a full yield explosion. Orders of magnitude less.

    The difference between Threads and and the police putting some yellow tape around a neighbourhood while some men in moon suits pick up the bits....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Prepping wise, my Romanian colleague told me yesterday that her family back there have already packed their grab bags and filled out a detailed to do list for if and when they need to flee quickly. Most likely if things spill over the border. Brings it home that to many people in Eastern Europe this is happening terrifyingly close by, and in a much more dangerous way than more self contained wars like Bosnia or Kosovo.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Shitty behaviour by P&O

    Take back control, I say.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    The peculiar divagations of Russia’s Special Flight Squadron RSD75



    https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD075/2b2adda5

    No one can work out what it is doing

    Thread here:

    https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1504483793716985859?s=21
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

    Schwarzenegger is quite an incredible communicator.

    His video on the Jan 6th insurrection was very powerful.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    IanB2 said:

    To help force its staff to disembark, P&O 'illegally' hired 16 balaclava-clad and handcuff-trained officers from a private security firm, with the company telling them the job would last a week and be paid at £14.50 an hour.

    Emails sent to security guards drafted in beforehand showed bosses describing a 'fairly high profile task' to be dealt with over the course of a week in Dover. Those enlisted were told to bring 'cuffs and utility belts' but were informed they would 'not need body armour for this task'.

    Unacceptable face of capitalism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    I had a look at the OSINT thread in Twitter, but it seems to be a zillion people of unknown views chpping in random thoughts and anecdotal evidence - is there some way of selecting the serious analysis?
    Yes, but it takes time and effort. I’ve done my best to repost the more credible tweets from people with expertise - but there’s a ton of disinformation as well, of course

    FWIW (not much) my take is that this is a feint by Putin. Trying to unnerve the west with some odd air movements (and perhaps practising for the real thing at the same time?)

    The private jets to Dubai are probably the real deal. People fleeing. Only a mad oligarch would stay in Moscow after Putin’s “traitors” speech last night
    Turning on his own oligarchs who he is nurtured for decades is an odd move. Maybe he has lost the plot totally.
    1) They told him that he has fucked up
    2) Therefore they are traitors to The Cause
    3) Therefore they must be dealt with

    Haven't you watched Downfall?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited March 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    Plutonium vs fallout is another one where people are rubbish at judging the risks.

    A few years back a Canadian environmentalist was claiming that an ABM system working would leave lumps of plutonium all over Canada. She simply refused to believe the actual evidence that fallout from nuclear explosions in the US would be worse for Canada than a few lumps of plutonium.

    Don't get me wrong. Plutonium isn't a great desert topping. But even the remains of a nuclear fizzle would be a tiny, tiny fraction of the fallout of a full yield explosion. Orders of magnitude less.

    The difference between Threads and and the police putting some yellow tape around a neighbourhood while some men in moon suits pick up the bits....
    For my own curiosity would I be correct in thinking that the amount of fall-out is heavily dependent on the "efficiency" of the fission/fusion reaction together with the positioning of the detonation. An air-burst over London, for example, which maximises area of destruction would produce less fall-out than a ground-burst designed for concentrated destruction of military facilities? Air-burst "dredges" up less, if none at all, ground material to irradiate?

    Asking for a friend
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    🐎 That was a gallop.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    North Cornwall (Bodmin Moor area) away from the blast radius of Plymouth, and central Devon (away from the north and south coastal targets) would probably be the best areas in southern England to escape, though. Depending on fallout and winds, of course.

    With prevailing winds being westerly, being downwind of Newquay would probably be the worst danger, but then again, isn't it always?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Absolutely wild
    https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1504148689396412419

    I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.

    21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance.
    But it is a crowded field.
    Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%

    92% live in NY, California and Texas.
    My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.

    People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %.
    They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.

    Why is that shocking to anyone?
    What percentage of people do you reckon are bad with percentages?
    All of them.
    All 104.34%?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    Carnyx said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    LOL The background radiation from all that granite in Cornwall is probably higher than could be expected from nuclear winter elsewhere.
    Surprised nobody has considered RAF St Mawgan.
    Or Culdrose and Goonhilly.

    (The visitors centre at the latter was probably the first place I used the internet).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    Plutonium vs fallout is another one where people are rubbish at judging the risks.

    A few years back a Canadian environmentalist was claiming that an ABM system working would leave lumps of plutonium all over Canada. She simply refused to believe the actual evidence that fallout from nuclear explosions in the US would be worse for Canada than a few lumps of plutonium.

    Don't get me wrong. Plutonium isn't a great desert topping. But even the remains of a nuclear fizzle would be a tiny, tiny fraction of the fallout of a full yield explosion. Orders of magnitude less.

    The difference between Threads and and the police putting some yellow tape around a neighbourhood while some men in moon suits pick up the bits....
    For my own curiosity would I be correct in thinking that the amount of fall-out is heavily dependent on the "efficiency" of the fission/fusion reaction together with the positioning of the detonation. An air-burst over London, for example, which maximises area of destruction would produce less fall-out than a ground-burst designed for concentrated destruction of military facilities? Air-burst "dredges" up less, if none at all, ground material to irradiate?

    Asking for a friend
    Yep. Especially with the size of warheads most expected to be used these days (more in the one-megatonne and slightly less range than the old Tsarbomba size).

    An airburst maximises the area of destruction but at the sub-one-megatonne range might produce minimal fallout.
    A groundburst would maximise depth/penetration (so used on more hardened targets) and provide maximum fallout.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    Problem with a lot of that type of game playing and brinkmanship is it can get away from you quite easily.
    The only logical winning strategy in a game of chicken is to throw your steering wheel out of the car in a way that the other person most definitely will see.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited March 2022

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    Don't forget the Commando training base, at Lympstone near Exmouth.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320
    ping said:

    Thanks for the tips @MoonRabbit @malcolmg

    I’m on Allaho, Champ & Sire du Berlais singles & acca.

    Good luck to all!

    Not the greatest for me today , one second place. Moonrabbit looks like top tipster this week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    Seriously, what is their strategy here? No one aids NATO recruitment better than they do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    I thought this was a joke, but it isn't:

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “Later at the lunch, maybe you might wanna watch, I’m gonna be reading a poem written by Bono about Ukraine, which you might find interesting."

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504487211290533889
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    Don't forget the Commando training base, at Lympstone near Exmouth.
    Prince Edward would quite like to.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    Don't forget the Commando training base, at Lympstone near Exmouth.
    Shows you how out of touch I've become with my home town. I hadn't even realized that RAF Mount Batten was closed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320
    Nigelb said:

    I'm glad I didn't think of getting a cab..

    Mum ordered £4,500 Uber to Ukraine after 'one too many drinks'

    A mum claims she ordered a £4,500 taxi to war-torn Ukraine to 'help' after 'one too many drinks'. Leoni Fildes was only saved by having 'insufficient funds' in her account.

    Leoni had been out to celebrate her friend's birthday on Saturday when the pair turned to talk of the war in Ukraine. The 34-year-old claims she had already downed a 'few double pink gins and 'shots of Sambuca' when she drunkenly decided to go there in a taxi to 'help' the Ukrainian cause.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mum-ordered-4500-uber-ukraine-23418648

    What's Putin's excuse ?
    Driver must be a complete dingbat
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    Don't forget the Commando training base, at Lympstone near Exmouth.
    And the comms centre where all the transatlantic data cables come onshore
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    I had a look at the OSINT thread in Twitter, but it seems to be a zillion people of unknown views chpping in random thoughts and anecdotal evidence - is there some way of selecting the serious analysis?
    Yes, but it takes time and effort. I’ve done my best to repost the more credible tweets from people with expertise - but there’s a ton of disinformation as well, of course

    FWIW (not much) my take is that this is a feint by Putin. Trying to unnerve the west with some odd air movements (and perhaps practising for the real thing at the same time?)

    The private jets to Dubai are probably the real deal. People fleeing. Only a mad oligarch would stay in Moscow after Putin’s “traitors” speech last night
    Getting rid of the oligarchs, though, is dangerous. The next level of people down aren't as invested in the regime.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    PB is a cheery place today
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    Seriously, what is their strategy here? No one aids NATO recruitment better than they do.
    Just had a conversation with a Moldovan UPS driver who dropped of a package (sorry, no Albanian taxi drivers available atm). His take was that Putin is a CIA operative, tasked with destroying Russia's military and economy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    Plutonium vs fallout is another one where people are rubbish at judging the risks.

    A few years back a Canadian environmentalist was claiming that an ABM system working would leave lumps of plutonium all over Canada. She simply refused to believe the actual evidence that fallout from nuclear explosions in the US would be worse for Canada than a few lumps of plutonium.

    Don't get me wrong. Plutonium isn't a great desert topping. But even the remains of a nuclear fizzle would be a tiny, tiny fraction of the fallout of a full yield explosion. Orders of magnitude less.

    The difference between Threads and and the police putting some yellow tape around a neighbourhood while some men in moon suits pick up the bits....
    For my own curiosity would I be correct in thinking that the amount of fall-out is heavily dependent on the "efficiency" of the fission/fusion reaction together with the positioning of the detonation. An air-burst over London, for example, which maximises area of destruction would produce less fall-out than a ground-burst designed for concentrated destruction of military facilities? Air-burst "dredges" up less, if none at all, ground material to irradiate?

    Asking for a friend
    Fallout is a function of how much fission is involved and how much of a ground burst it is - though a burst in the ocean on the surface is radiologically horrible, by the way.

    Fallout is basically bits of fission reaction products stuck to dirt.

    Modern nuclear weapons start with fission (Nagasaki style). This generally sets of a small fusion reaction in the core of the bomb (boosting) which sets of more fission. The radiation from this compresses the secondary, which is where most of the fusion happens. In the middle of that is another fission device (the spark plug) which turns up the party music to 11. For added fun, the fusion stage (secondary) is usually wrapped in uranium which fissions as well - and can make up more than half the yield.

    So "hydrogen bomb" is actually fission->fusion->More fission->fusion->fission with the last two steps creating most of the yield.

    The last bit is where most of the fallout comes from. It is believed that the relatively small yields for the UK warheads on Trident come from not have uranium tampers on the fusion stage.

    For destroying cities, airbursts are actually optimal - the blast smashes everything and the thermal pulse sets it on fire. A ground burst makes the process of murdering civilians less effective.

    Ironically, the switch, late in the cold war, to mostly targeting silos and hardened facilities makes more fallout - since you have ground bursts lofting millions of tons of soil and debris in to the atmosphere.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    Don't forget the Commando training base, at Lympstone near Exmouth.
    If they hit Okehampton Camp it might actually improve it. Shitty place.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    They already mostly have six fingers and toes and play banjo's.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    Problem with a lot of that type of game playing and brinkmanship is it can get away from you quite easily.
    The only logical winning strategy in a game of chicken is to throw your steering wheel out of the car in a way that the other person most definitely will see.
    You are Herman Kahn and I claim my 5 megadeaths.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    UK R

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    Case summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    Deaths

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Top figures from Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign are privately encouraging Ro Khanna to run for president in 2024 if Joe Biden doesn’t seek a second term, giving the California congressman an important stamp of approval from progressives as the party looks to its post-Biden future.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/17/sanders-khanna-presidential-bid-2024-00018017
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    malcolmg said:

    ping said:

    Thanks for the tips @MoonRabbit @malcolmg

    I’m on Allaho, Champ & Sire du Berlais singles & acca.

    Good luck to all!

    Not the greatest for me today , one second place. Moonrabbit looks like top tipster this week.
    There’s still a long way to go yet. 🥵.

    We did say upfront it’s a tricky day to call them today. It’s got a lot less soft than expected on the course, so favouring the stayers in a gallop tomorrow I think.

    But It’s been great finishes, and great TV coverage to get immersed in.

    I’d better clean up the mess now and dyson round before she gets in. 🙋‍♀️
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    edited March 2022
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    PB is a cheery place today
    The main thing is to get Malmesbury into a bunker somewhere, so he can continue to post the daily figures by council for numbers of deaths and numbers testing positively for irradiation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    Yep. He wants digital opinion-formers in the West like us to be getting in a lather about 'will he won't he?' use nukes.

    So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
    I hope Putin wasn't following HYUFD last night.
    I don't know about that. It would probably have scared the shit out of him. "These wild and crazy Westerners! Better tread carefully."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    North Cornwall (Bodmin Moor area) away from the blast radius of Plymouth, and central Devon (away from the north and south coastal targets) would probably be the best areas in southern England to escape, though. Depending on fallout and winds, of course.

    With prevailing winds being westerly, being downwind of Newquay would probably be the worst danger, but then again, isn't it always?

    Depends what was being let off in the sea upwind, mind. As Malmesbury says, marine nuke bursts are very messy. The 1946(?) trial of atom bombs against ships at Bikini was a revelation. The standard history shows a photo of a row of matelots and scrubbing brushes trying to decontaminate a warship ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    It is only a matter of a short time before the Balkans explodes again I am sorry to say.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A more pessimistic view from Estonia

    In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine

    "On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act

    We must be ready to act decisively to take away control

    Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦

    new via
    @RenewGreatPower"

    https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

    The author IS an expert in this field

    I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.

    The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.

    It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
    Yes, all very murky.

    One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
    Yep. He wants digital opinion-formers in the West like us to be getting in a lather about 'will he won't he?' use nukes.

    So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
    Purge the traitors!
    :smile: - Patriots not scaredy cats!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    Seriously, what is their strategy here? No one aids NATO recruitment better than they do.
    Just had a conversation with a Moldovan UPS driver who dropped of a package (sorry, no Albanian taxi drivers available atm). His take was that Putin is a CIA operative, tasked with destroying Russia's military and economy.
    :lol:
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    I think Cotswold villages would be glowing with or without the afternoon sunshine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited March 2022
    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    Would those Cotswold villages also glow at night?

    Seriously though, wouldn't everyone die from radiation poisoning soon after?

    Edit: Apols, I see this has been covered down thread (upthread?). I will take a read - module 101 on Nuclear Fallout at PB Uni.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    It is only a matter of a short time before the Balkans explodes again I am sorry to say.
    I don’t know. The horrifying spectacle of Ukraine might actually deter other countries/armies from kicking off

    Imagine you’re in a bar and you’re thinking of punching that guy who looked at your girlfriend. But before you do, some huge crazy thug starts stabbing the bar staff

    You might not want to attract attention. Your instinct will be to hide
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    Perhaps a little optimistic - those nice little Cotswold villages will feel more than a breeze from GCHQ getting blitzed in Cheltenham (at the least). 200 warheads over the UK would mean there's no afternoon sunshine for quite some time considering most of the UK will be on fire. Not to mention a few Nuclear power stations "malfunctioning" at the same time adding to the general sense of fun.

    "When the Wind Blows" a good introduction to the effects (maybe) felt out in the sticks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    I would be staggered if two thirds of Russian warheads made it to their destinations. I think a third would be optimistic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    PB is a cheery place today
    The main thing is to get Malmesbury into a bunker somewhere, so he can continue to post the daily figures by council for numbers of deaths and numbers testing positively for irradiation.
    If I recover from Covid but promptly go down to a Nuclear Holocaust that will be quite the irony. Definitely something to tell the grandkids one day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm glad I didn't think of getting a cab..

    Mum ordered £4,500 Uber to Ukraine after 'one too many drinks'

    A mum claims she ordered a £4,500 taxi to war-torn Ukraine to 'help' after 'one too many drinks'. Leoni Fildes was only saved by having 'insufficient funds' in her account.

    Leoni had been out to celebrate her friend's birthday on Saturday when the pair turned to talk of the war in Ukraine. The 34-year-old claims she had already downed a 'few double pink gins and 'shots of Sambuca' when she drunkenly decided to go there in a taxi to 'help' the Ukrainian cause.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mum-ordered-4500-uber-ukraine-23418648

    What's Putin's excuse ?
    Driver must be a complete dingbat
    Plenty of evidence that Putin's drivers are, in fact, dingbats.

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    PB is a cheery place today
    The main thing is to get Malmesbury into a bunker somewhere, so he can continue to post the daily figures by council for numbers of deaths and numbers testing positively for irradiation.
    How would he distribute them? Evelyn Waugh, in 'Scoop' recommended cleft sticks. Not sure where to buy them in London these days. Harrods?

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    It is only a matter of a short time before the Balkans explodes again I am sorry to say.
    I don’t know. The horrifying spectacle of Ukraine might actually deter other countries/armies from kicking off

    Imagine you’re in a bar and you’re thinking of punching that guy who looked at your girlfriend. But before you do, some huge crazy thug starts stabbing the bar staff

    You might not want to attract attention. Your instinct will be to hide
    Wouldn’t it be more like you want to kick off with some guy who looked at your girlfriend when a huge crazy thug starts a fight with the guy’s friend and the other friends give the victim a chainsaw to use on the crazy thug.

    Suddenly you realise that it’s not just the guy you want to punch but what his friends will do to you too….
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    Would those Cotswold villages also glow at night?

    Seriously though, wouldn't everyone die from radiation poisoning soon after?

    Edit: Apols, I see this has been covered down thread (upthread?). I will take a read - module 101 on Nuclear Fallout at PB Uni.
    You don't have to know anything about nuclear fallout on PB.

    You just need to know how to pronounce it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Leon said:

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    It is only a matter of a short time before the Balkans explodes again I am sorry to say.
    I don’t know. The horrifying spectacle of Ukraine might actually deter other countries/armies from kicking off

    Imagine you’re in a bar and you’re thinking of punching that guy who looked at your girlfriend. But before you do, some huge crazy thug starts stabbing the bar staff

    You might not want to attract attention. Your instinct will be to hide
    Becoming a global pariah because of your military aggression will concentrate a lot of minds, including the Chinese as I said right at the beginning of the invasion. A silver lining of sorts for the future.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    Would those Cotswold villages also glow at night?

    Seriously though, wouldn't everyone die from radiation poisoning soon after?

    Edit: Apols, I see this has been covered down thread (upthread?). I will take a read - module 101 on Nuclear Fallout at PB Uni.
    You don't have to know anything about nuclear fallout on PB.

    You just need to know how to pronounce it.
    Don't you mean, spell it and calculate one's percentages?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Open threat by Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He says joining NATO is an internal matter for BiH but “the other thing is our reaction. The example of Ukraine shows what we expect. If there’s a threat we will react.”

    https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1504469354531885072

    It is only a matter of a short time before the Balkans explodes again I am sorry to say.
    What makes you so sure?

    Having said that, if Putin wants to add fronts against the West, perhaps the Balkans is one hotspot.

    I’d have thought the Middle East a more likely candidate, tbh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    Would those Cotswold villages also glow at night?

    Seriously though, wouldn't everyone die from radiation poisoning soon after?

    Edit: Apols, I see this has been covered down thread (upthread?). I will take a read - module 101 on Nuclear Fallout at PB Uni.
    You don't have to know anything about nuclear fallout on PB.

    Corrected, for my own motto at least.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    I’ve actually SEEN one of these boltholes. A fantastic house in the far southwest corner of the Australian coast, in Western Oz

    I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse

    A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out

    Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
    On The Beach? - Oh, beaten to it!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Top figures from Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign are privately encouraging Ro Khanna to run for president in 2024 if Joe Biden doesn’t seek a second term, giving the California congressman an important stamp of approval from progressives as the party looks to its post-Biden future.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/17/sanders-khanna-presidential-bid-2024-00018017

    He's not going again himself? That's a shame.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256
    edited March 2022
    boulay said:

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    I think Cotswold villages would be glowing with or without the afternoon sunshine.
    Yes, but they wold be nearly all intact. Russian nukes are larger than their Western equivalents - probably accuracy issues. But blast and thermal effects don't scale linearly.

    Lets say we nuke Oxford with a 450Kt weapon. The circle is the damage radius.

    EDIT: To be clear, it's the fallout that wipes out the UK

    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    You can just imagine the lardy **** going 'No problem your sheikness, looks like a totally sensible biz decision to me'


    The mother of a P&O worker told a Mirror sister title that P&O staff were told they had "five minutes to get their stuff and get off the ships".

    P&O staff were told they were being laid off by a pre-recorded video message. The message said: "Your final day of employment is today. I do accept that there are no words that can make the situation any better today. I realise that this will have come as a shock to you, and we will provide you with all of the ongoing support possible."

    He then confirmed that all serving crew members would be replaced by a third party company.

    Labour MP Diana Johnson told the Commons today: "I understand from the RMT union that these agency staff, mainly from overseas, are in buses on the quayside with a security firm... wearing balaclavas and taking British crew off these ships.
    I am not sure why she has to make the point they are from overseas. That's all a bit "coming here, taking our jobs", but if this is true it is appalling.
    Labour's position on this is self contradictory and absurd. Diana Johnson sounds like Nigel Farage.
    Shades of Gordon Brown trying to sound like UKIP with his "British Jobs for British Workers" stuff
    Not his finest hour, that, and I think he regrets it. The authentic - and very unUKippy - Gordon Brown was more as per the Mrs Duffy exchange. He's an internationalist at heart.
    Yup - snearing and looking down on their old core voters - sounds like Gordo.
    That's a nonsense as I've explained so many times.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    boulay said:

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    I think Cotswold villages would be glowing with or without the afternoon sunshine.
    Yes, but they wold be nearly all intact. Russian nukes are larger than their Western equivalents - probably accuracy issues. But blast and thermal effects don't scale linearly.

    Lets say we nuke Oxford with a 450Kt weapon. The circle is the damage radius.

    image
    Crime would go down massively as Blackbird Lees gets tonked.

    Safest place is Cambridge. No way they zap their spies....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    This is interesting. Maybe

    Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai

    I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?




    That's the standard route at the moment.

    Compare:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980

    It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
    I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
    Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
    Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
    FWIW, I reckon that at least 80% of Russian nuclear weapons will be duds, and maybe more like 90%. Of course, in many cases there will still be plutonium strewing the landscape.

    So there will be a lot of luck in who (and where) survives. Being in London (or NYV, DC or LA) is probably going to result in a suboptimal outcome. But if you're in the middle of nowhere, you have a pretty good chance of surviving a couple of years with only terrible cancers, no potable water, very little in the way of fresh food, and a Mad Max type "society" around you.
    As I mentioned the other day, I’ve got relatives who are actually “prepping”. They reckon Cornwall will be OK.
    Provided they give Plymouth a miss.

    Devonport. Largest operational Naval base in Western Europe.
    Plus Stonehouse Barracks and Bickleigh Barracks for the Marines.
    Yeah, sorry, there'll be a couple coming your way.

    Cornwall - Culdrose, Portreath, RAF St Mawgan (Newquay airport) will be the most logical target sites, really.
    PB is a cheery place today
    The main thing is to get Malmesbury into a bunker somewhere, so he can continue to post the daily figures by council for numbers of deaths and numbers testing positively for irradiation.
    How would he distribute them? Evelyn Waugh, in 'Scoop' recommended cleft sticks. Not sure where to buy them in London these days. Harrods?

    Pre clefted sticks are now unavailable. Sticks are pretty hard to source.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,661
    Good grief. PB is bleak today. Do people really think the balloon is going up? What are the odds?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    Would those Cotswold villages also glow at night?

    Seriously though, wouldn't everyone die from radiation poisoning soon after?

    Edit: Apols, I see this has been covered down thread (upthread?). I will take a read - module 101 on Nuclear Fallout at PB Uni.
    You don't have to know anything about nuclear fallout on PB.

    Corrected, for my own motto at least.
    How many accounts does HYUFD have on here?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    boulay said:

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    I think Cotswold villages would be glowing with or without the afternoon sunshine.
    Yes, but they wold be nearly all intact. Russian nukes are larger than their Western equivalents - probably accuracy issues. But blast and thermal effects don't scale linearly.

    Lets say we nuke Oxford with a 450Kt weapon. The circle is the damage radius.

    image
    Crime would go down massively as Blackbird Lees gets tonked.

    Safest place is Cambridge. No way they zap their spies....
    But surely they'd like to do some damage. Oxford clearly has nothing of worth :)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited March 2022
    One of the scary things is that it’s still not entirely clear what Putin’s political aims were/are.

    Was it just to normalise Donbas annexation?
    Seize the Ukrainian seaboard?
    Annex all of Ukraine?
    Return to pre-1989 borders?

    Or is it that - unbeknownst to us - he was about to be toppled and needs a long long war and besieged economy to accrue the kind of authortitarian powers necessary to stay in control?

    Nobody knows, but it seems important in terms of figuring out whether he, indeed, likely he to resort to nuclear weaponry.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    The peculiar divagations of Russia’s Special Flight Squadron RSD75



    https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD075/2b2adda5

    No one can work out what it is doing

    Thread here:

    https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1504483793716985859?s=21

    ultra top secret bunker somewhere on the black dotted line. It is flying the loop so no one knows where on the line it landed.

    AFL1730 is on the exact same track which is odd as it is meant to be commercial moscow-kamchatsky but is 100s of mile off track to the North.

    Very liberating knowing absolutely bugger all about the subject you are expatiating on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,256

    boulay said:

    TimS said:

    Thinking through the morbid maths here.

    I understand Russia has around 6,000 warheads but the internet tells me they have around 1,500 "strategic" warheads i.e. ones that could be launched via ICBMs, heavy bombers or other means of getting them to distant targets like Britain and the USA. So 1,500: let's assume not all those get fired even in a true WW3 event - some get shot out of the sky by THAAD systems, some fail to detonate, some never make it out of their silos. Perhaps 1,000.

    Let's say there population of target countries in this long range is about 600 million - populations of the USA, Canada, Europe West of Germany or South of the Alps. So proportionally Britain would get a little over 10% of those. Maybe in reality we get more because we're a nuclear armed enemy - 20% say, with fewer falling on Italy, Iberia etc. That's 200 warheads for the UK. Enough to wipe out our means of functioning as a country and irradiate the whole landmass, yet not anywhere near enough to cause physical damage to more than our cities, suburbs and military bases. Most of the country would look the same s before the exchange. Cotswold villages would still glow in the afternoon sunshine with roses growing up the walls. Small market towns would still have their fully intact high streets and squares. It's a strange prospect.

    I think Cotswold villages would be glowing with or without the afternoon sunshine.
    Yes, but they wold be nearly all intact. Russian nukes are larger than their Western equivalents - probably accuracy issues. But blast and thermal effects don't scale linearly.

    Lets say we nuke Oxford with a 450Kt weapon. The circle is the damage radius.

    image
    Crime would go down massively as Blackbird Lees gets tonked.

    Safest place is Cambridge. No way they zap their spies....
    Why would the target and indifferent polytechnic in a swamp, anyway?
This discussion has been closed.