You can just imagine the lardy **** going 'No problem your sheikness, looks like a totally sensible biz decision to me'
The mother of a P&O worker told a Mirror sister title that P&O staff were told they had "five minutes to get their stuff and get off the ships".
P&O staff were told they were being laid off by a pre-recorded video message. The message said: "Your final day of employment is today. I do accept that there are no words that can make the situation any better today. I realise that this will have come as a shock to you, and we will provide you with all of the ongoing support possible."
He then confirmed that all serving crew members would be replaced by a third party company.
Labour MP Diana Johnson told the Commons today: "I understand from the RMT union that these agency staff, mainly from overseas, are in buses on the quayside with a security firm... wearing balaclavas and taking British crew off these ships.
I am not sure why she has to make the point they are from overseas. That's all a bit "coming here, taking our jobs", but if this is true it is appalling.
Labour's position on this is self contradictory and absurd. Diana Johnson sounds like Nigel Farage.
Last week, I read critiques of my position on Putin’s rationality and possibility of nuclear war. Many are not realist enough about the nuclear threat or the right response. I argue in this thread that if we “blink” on Putin’s nuclear threat, we will increase the risk of WWIII. https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1503404009142423558
That's sound but I'm not sure the US response can fairly be described as 'blinking'. They've laid a clear red line - NATO territory - and I can't see why Putin would doubt this based on US rhetoric and actions thus far.
The basic problem is that Putin isn't Thatcher. He might well be prepared to use nukes rather than lose power.
In which case there's nothing we can do. But I assess the possibility as remote. Far far more likely is he's seeking to promote exactly that belief you articulate. That he's mad enough to do it. The more we buy into this the more potent is the blackmail.
How do you assess the possibility as remote? You have no no data for that.
Unless you are Putin's personal head shrinker....
A lot of people assessed the chances of an Actual Ukrainian Invasion as “remote”
TBF inc me. I was quite shocked by it. It didn't seem to make sense (for Putin) therefore I thought it wouldn't happen. So perhaps my usual abilities are malfunctioning on this one. Perhaps him going nuclear is more than a remote possibility. Perhaps the unthinkable is actually going to happen. Oh please let it not be so. I hate being wrong on PB.
There's a Pascal's wager thing going on here. It is safe to predict things won't go nuclear, because nobody's going to have time to pick you up on it if you are wrong.
Yep. Although this site is so strange and special I can imagine us arguing away about who made the best call right up to the point of the Bomb dropping - and maybe just for a couple of minutes afterwards. Wonder who would get the Last Post? There's an obvious odds-on favourite, isn't there?
Assuming the internet is still up, it'll be grim when the surviving PBers are left speculating which of our fellow posters have been taken out by the nuclear strike. I'm fairly near Heathrow airport - rumoured to be a Soviet target back in the day - so probably won't be around.
The surprise after a nuclear war might well be how much of the world population is completely unscathed. Economic and market meltdown of course, but otherwise life will go on. That applies to the entire Southern Hemisphere and probably - if this were a Russia v NATO war - the whole of the tropics with nothing South of Miami, Hawaii and possibly Okinawa being hit. In other words about 3/4 of the world's surface untouched.
You've heard of the concept of Nuclear Winter?
So, you're saying that it reverses global warming too?
Tough on global warming, tough on the causes of global warming.
I wonder if an analyst in the Kremlin is currently really sorry by our unusual cross-channel ferry movements today.
NB: Never using them again, the bastards.
P&O are losing money on their cross channel services. What should they do?
I dunno, act like grownups and have a proper approach to consultation and redundancies and not sack all of its staff like a Corbynite’s idea of a comicbook industrialist.
The way they are doing it is very hamfisted, true, but the point is surely that covid restrictions f8cked P&O's business and the customers have not returned. Plus, people have less money for travel because of inflation and impending tax rises for the NHS.
I don't see what option the company has, given the trading environment they have been served up by the government. What do they expect?
None of that excuses this approach. Would it have been ok for Woolies or Debenhams to have tried to survive by sacking all of their staff and replacing them with cheaper ones?
In the event this approach even turns out to be lawful, they will have lost me as a customer. I won’t be the only one.
Last week, I read critiques of my position on Putin’s rationality and possibility of nuclear war. Many are not realist enough about the nuclear threat or the right response. I argue in this thread that if we “blink” on Putin’s nuclear threat, we will increase the risk of WWIII. https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1503404009142423558
That's sound but I'm not sure the US response can fairly be described as 'blinking'. They've laid a clear red line - NATO territory - and I can't see why Putin would doubt this based on US rhetoric and actions thus far.
The basic problem is that Putin isn't Thatcher. He might well be prepared to use nukes rather than lose power.
In which case there's nothing we can do. But I assess the possibility as remote. Far far more likely is he's seeking to promote exactly that belief you articulate. That he's mad enough to do it. The more we buy into this the more potent is the blackmail.
How do you assess the possibility as remote? You have no no data for that.
Unless you are Putin's personal head shrinker....
A lot of people assessed the chances of an Actual Ukrainian Invasion as “remote”
TBF inc me. I was quite shocked by it. It didn't seem to make sense (for Putin) therefore I thought it wouldn't happen. So perhaps my usual abilities are malfunctioning on this one. Perhaps him going nuclear is more than a remote possibility. Perhaps the unthinkable is actually going to happen. Oh please let it not be so. I hate being wrong on PB.
There's a Pascal's wager thing going on here. It is safe to predict things won't go nuclear, because nobody's going to have time to pick you up on it if you are wrong.
Yep. Although this site is so strange and special I can imagine us arguing away about who made the best call right up to the point of the Bomb dropping - and maybe just for a couple of minutes afterwards. Wonder who would get the Last Post? There's an obvious odds-on favourite, isn't there?
Assuming the internet is still up, it'll be grim when the surviving PBers are left speculating which of our fellow posters have been taken out by the nuclear strike. I'm fairly near Heathrow airport - rumoured to be a Soviet target back in the day - so probably won't be around.
The surprise after a nuclear war might well be how much of the world population is completely unscathed. Economic and market meltdown of course, but otherwise life will go on. That applies to the entire Southern Hemisphere and probably - if this were a Russia v NATO war - the whole of the tropics with nothing South of Miami, Hawaii and possibly Okinawa being hit. In other words about 3/4 of the world's surface untouched.
You've heard of the concept of Nuclear Winter?
So, you're saying that it reverses global warming too?
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
Sir Humphrey Appleby : Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic.
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
I'm not going "stark raving mad". I am sitting in the spring sun, streaming through my first floor sash windows, sipping a nice mug of tea
The news today is interesting, if perturbing. This is a site that follows news developments closely, and discusses them, often with much wisdom and insight. So we discuss this.
YOU are the one that chucks a mental at any bad news, and runs away
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
Sir Humphrey Appleby : Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic.
Just returned from hospital. Plaster off, stitches out, boot on. Another 4 weeks without standing on it. Thumbs up for other leg.
Is that good news? You seem pleased but that sounds quite drastic. What did you do?
My foot is on the mend, thank you. Wearing shoes is still uncomfortable and I haven't walked more than about 100 yards at a time but as I can work from home it's actually not that major an inconvenience. Nothing to suggest it won't heal perfectly well and that it'll be entirely comfortable in a couple of weeks.
Yep pretty good news. I broke both my legs, one badly, 3 weeks ago. Just fell over. Pathetic. Left leg is now ok to put weight on. Only one broken bone and not weight bearing. Boot came off today. Multiple breaks in other leg. Pinned 2 weeks ago. 10 days in hospital prior to that. Plaster off today and boot put on.
NHS were fantastic.
You - fell over - and broke both your legs?! That's spectacularly unlucky. Glad you're on the mend.
When I was in hospital for my first ankle op, aged 15, I shared a ward with a man who worked at the railway works in Derby. He had been cycling home and had come off his bike at slow speed, going up London Road bridge. His leg got wrapped around the frame, then he fell against the kerb. He shattered both his lower and upper leg in four or five places. He said he was not going much faster than walking pace.
Schwarzenegger is quite an incredible communicator.
Arnie is great.
Pass the 61st Amendment. Now.
Yes, it's a real shame that he has been precluded from running due to his birthplace. As a moderate GOPer he could have united the country. A very underrated politician and as said above, an absolute superb and empathetic communicator.
You can just imagine the lardy **** going 'No problem your sheikness, looks like a totally sensible biz decision to me'
The mother of a P&O worker told a Mirror sister title that P&O staff were told they had "five minutes to get their stuff and get off the ships".
P&O staff were told they were being laid off by a pre-recorded video message. The message said: "Your final day of employment is today. I do accept that there are no words that can make the situation any better today. I realise that this will have come as a shock to you, and we will provide you with all of the ongoing support possible."
He then confirmed that all serving crew members would be replaced by a third party company.
Labour MP Diana Johnson told the Commons today: "I understand from the RMT union that these agency staff, mainly from overseas, are in buses on the quayside with a security firm... wearing balaclavas and taking British crew off these ships.
I am not sure why she has to make the point they are from overseas. That's all a bit "coming here, taking our jobs", but if this is true it is appalling.
Labour's position on this is self contradictory and absurd. Diana Johnson sounds like Nigel Farage.
Shades of Gordon Brown trying to sound like UKIP with his "British Jobs for British Workers" stuff
Just returned from hospital. Plaster off, stitches out, boot on. Another 4 weeks without standing on it. Thumbs up for other leg.
Is that good news? You seem pleased but that sounds quite drastic. What did you do?
My foot is on the mend, thank you. Wearing shoes is still uncomfortable and I haven't walked more than about 100 yards at a time but as I can work from home it's actually not that major an inconvenience. Nothing to suggest it won't heal perfectly well and that it'll be entirely comfortable in a couple of weeks.
Yep pretty good news. I broke both my legs, one badly, 3 weeks ago. Just fell over. Pathetic. Left leg is now ok to put weight on. Only one broken bone and not weight bearing. Boot came off today. Multiple breaks in other leg. Pinned 2 weeks ago. 10 days in hospital prior to that. Plaster off today and boot put on.
NHS were fantastic.
Blimey really sorry to hear that hope it all mends quickly.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
I find that one explicable - if you go by the amount of copy the issue gets in the papers and on social media 21% of the population being transgender would feel about right.
The one that knocks me out is 30% live in New York. I mean, ok, it is the BIG Apple, but still.
21% transgender, 30% gay or lesbian, 29% bisexual.
So one interpretation is that people think that 80% of the US population is gay, bisexual or transgender.
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
Sir Humphrey Appleby : Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic.
This is why I've come to the view that the integrity and competence of whoever is PM is more important than their 'here today gone tomorrow' policies.
I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
Sir Humphrey Appleby : Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic.
This is why I've come to the view that the integrity and competence of whoever is PM is more important than their 'here today gone tomorrow' policies.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
I find that one explicable - if you go by the amount of copy the issue gets in the papers and on social media 21% of the population being transgender would feel about right.
The one that knocks me out is 30% live in New York. I mean, ok, it is the BIG Apple, but still.
21% transgender, 30% gay or lesbian, 29% bisexual.
So one interpretation is that people think that 80% of the US population is gay, bisexual or transgender.
Except that it has been proven in multiple studies over decades that people do not naturally think in terms of Bayesian probability.
I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
Yes, all very murky.
One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
I’m on Allaho, Champ & Sire du Berlais singles & acca.
Good luck to all!
As expected, it’s a testing day, wide open races, aside from Allaho who should win, but we have already seen drama, and they are going to run the third with the screens up. I think Sire got caught up avoiding the fallers in the last race. Every bit as tricky, dramatic as we thought today 😕
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
Yes, some Hispanics are Black.
Well sure. And some will have a black hispanic mother and an asian father.
But I'd bet the respondents weren't really thinking of thosee crossover bits when they came up with numbers of three racial categories that add up to over 100%.
Idiots. Time to get rid of mask altogether and forever.
There appears to be an abundance of international evidence that masking is near or completely useless against omicron (e.g. Hong Kong, NZ). It's not clear why anyone would persisting with an intrusive, antisocial measure for no obvious health benefit.
In the case of BA I suspect the unions were threatening to strike on safety grounds
Mum ordered £4,500 Uber to Ukraine after 'one too many drinks'
A mum claims she ordered a £4,500 taxi to war-torn Ukraine to 'help' after 'one too many drinks'. Leoni Fildes was only saved by having 'insufficient funds' in her account.
Leoni had been out to celebrate her friend's birthday on Saturday when the pair turned to talk of the war in Ukraine. The 34-year-old claims she had already downed a 'few double pink gins and 'shots of Sambuca' when she drunkenly decided to go there in a taxi to 'help' the Ukrainian cause.
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
I'm not going "stark raving mad". I am sitting in the spring sun, streaming through my first floor sash windows, sipping a nice mug of tea
The news today is interesting, if perturbing. This is a site that follows news developments closely, and discusses them, often with much wisdom and insight. So we discuss this.
YOU are the one that chucks a mental at any bad news, and runs away
Each to their own, friend
You have got this weird idea about me that I run away from bad news. I do no such thing. I'm fully abreast of the fragile situation and I read a lot about it. What does seem odd – to me – is the way certain PBers seem to luxuriate in the latest rumour on twitter that someone somewhere did something that possibly means something else. As I say, you might enjoy it, but it will quite possibly drive you mad. If you are not mad already.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
I found it interesting the misses in the opposite direction (Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)
Last week, I read critiques of my position on Putin’s rationality and possibility of nuclear war. Many are not realist enough about the nuclear threat or the right response. I argue in this thread that if we “blink” on Putin’s nuclear threat, we will increase the risk of WWIII. https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1503404009142423558
That's sound but I'm not sure the US response can fairly be described as 'blinking'. They've laid a clear red line - NATO territory - and I can't see why Putin would doubt this based on US rhetoric and actions thus far.
The basic problem is that Putin isn't Thatcher. He might well be prepared to use nukes rather than lose power.
In which case there's nothing we can do. But I assess the possibility as remote. Far far more likely is he's seeking to promote exactly that belief you articulate. That he's mad enough to do it. The more we buy into this the more potent is the blackmail.
How do you assess the possibility as remote? You have no no data for that.
Unless you are Putin's personal head shrinker....
A lot of people assessed the chances of an Actual Ukrainian Invasion as “remote”
TBF inc me. I was quite shocked by it. It didn't seem to make sense (for Putin) therefore I thought it wouldn't happen. So perhaps my usual abilities are malfunctioning on this one. Perhaps him going nuclear is more than a remote possibility. Perhaps the unthinkable is actually going to happen. Oh please let it not be so. I hate being wrong on PB.
There's a Pascal's wager thing going on here. It is safe to predict things won't go nuclear, because nobody's going to have time to pick you up on it if you are wrong.
Yep. Although this site is so strange and special I can imagine us arguing away about who made the best call right up to the point of the Bomb dropping - and maybe just for a couple of minutes afterwards. Wonder who would get the Last Post? There's an obvious odds-on favourite, isn't there?
Assuming the internet is still up, it'll be grim when the surviving PBers are left speculating which of our fellow posters have been taken out by the nuclear strike. I'm fairly near Heathrow airport - rumoured to be a Soviet target back in the day - so probably won't be around.
The surprise after a nuclear war might well be how much of the world population is completely unscathed. Economic and market meltdown of course, but otherwise life will go on. That applies to the entire Southern Hemisphere and probably - if this were a Russia v NATO war - the whole of the tropics with nothing South of Miami, Hawaii and possibly Okinawa being hit. In other words about 3/4 of the world's surface untouched.
You've heard of the concept of Nuclear Winter?
So, you're saying that it reverses global warming too?
I would suggest that it dramatically increases human climate change in the short run, but completely eliminates it in the medium term.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
It's not shocking, but is a reminder about the way people see the world.
I would also urge the use of the median figures, which YouGov also provided. In the equivalent UK survey a while back, at least one person suggested we had 90% employment. They were either not paying attention or confused employed and unemployed.
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
Sir Humphrey Appleby : Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic.
This is why I've come to the view that the integrity and competence of whoever is PM is more important than their 'here today gone tomorrow' policies.
That'll explain why it's all gone tits up then.
Ha, yes. But what I'm hoping is we've slid to the 'integrity and competence' nadir now and once he's gone the only way is up.
Just returned from hospital. Plaster off, stitches out, boot on. Another 4 weeks without standing on it. Thumbs up for other leg.
Is that good news? You seem pleased but that sounds quite drastic. What did you do?
My foot is on the mend, thank you. Wearing shoes is still uncomfortable and I haven't walked more than about 100 yards at a time but as I can work from home it's actually not that major an inconvenience. Nothing to suggest it won't heal perfectly well and that it'll be entirely comfortable in a couple of weeks.
Yep pretty good news. I broke both my legs, one badly, 3 weeks ago. Just fell over. Pathetic. Left leg is now ok to put weight on. Only one broken bone and not weight bearing. Boot came off today. Multiple breaks in other leg. Pinned 2 weeks ago. 10 days in hospital prior to that. Plaster off today and boot put on.
NHS were fantastic.
You - fell over - and broke both your legs?! That's spectacularly unlucky. Glad you're on the mend.
Yep. In younger days I have skied black and yellow runs and pitchpoled catamarans and in all that time the worst I have done is broken ribs. Try and walk in a straight line and get 4 fractures. This walking business is dangerous.
Sailor friend suggests if they really do sack all the staff (and it's not just a ballsy opening move in a negotiation), it could be weeks before the ferries start moving again.
I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
Yes, all very murky.
One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
This is war, and the first casualty of war is the truth. This is for very good reasons.
1) Each side's government, military and intelligence will know stuff that is useful, as well as try to get the other side to think they know stuff that seems useful but isn't.
2) No-one at all who knows anything that does not have to be public knowledge can let the public and PBers know it without the enemy knowing it as well.
3) You cannot know what the media on all sides are being directed to report and not report.
4) You cannot know whether a report, whether true or false, is principally directed at friend or foe.
5) In the case of nuclear attack we have every reason to think that for tactical reasons no warning will be given even minutes in advance.
Therefore everything should be considered with care. Caveat emptor.
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
I’m on Allaho, Champ & Sire du Berlais singles & acca.
Good luck to all!
As expected, it’s a testing day, wide open races, aside from Allaho who should win, but we have already seen drama, and they are going to run the third with the screens up. I think Sire got caught up avoiding the fallers in the last race. Every bit as tricky, dramatic as we thought today 😕
It’s looking pretty muddy.
That’s my fifth winning tip of the meeting, but it’s much more difficult from here I think. I’ve already got everything crossed for champ 🤞
The favourites are being very circumspect where they can in the conditions.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
Yes, some Hispanics are Black.
These three categories are methodologically problematic, to say the least. Hispanic is a linguistic category, whose members vary from direct descendants of the conquistadors on the one extreme to native Americans who were conquered by them on the other. Asian means at least half the world's population, encompassing more races and languages than you could shake a stick at. And Black presumably means descendants of African slaves or people who closely resemble them.
I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
Yes, all very murky.
One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
Yep. He wants digital opinion-formers in the West like us to be getting in a lather about 'will he won't he?' use nukes.
So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
But the destinations - Siberia, the Urals, Bunkerland - remain a concern
You – and others – will drive yourself stark raving mad by following every possible twitter 'lead' of this war. I implore you – as an act of kindness, PBer to fellow PBer – to get outside and enjoy this glorious London spring day. Step away from social media. Let the sun hit your skin.
I'm not going "stark raving mad". I am sitting in the spring sun, streaming through my first floor sash windows, sipping a nice mug of tea
The news today is interesting, if perturbing. This is a site that follows news developments closely, and discusses them, often with much wisdom and insight. So we discuss this.
YOU are the one that chucks a mental at any bad news, and runs away
Each to their own, friend
You have got this weird idea about me that I run away from bad news. I do no such thing. I'm fully abreast of the fragile situation and I read a lot about it. What does seem odd – to me – is the way certain PBers seem to luxuriate in the latest rumour on twitter that someone somewhere did something that possibly means something else. As I say, you might enjoy it, but it will quite possibly drive you mad. If you are not mad already.
It’s politicalbetting.com
Discussing the “latest rumour on Twitter that someone somewhere did something that possibly means something else” is about 50% of our discourse. The rest is enjoyably pointless arguments and fabulously arcane infodumps. It’s a nice mix which is presumably why you come back here
Also, the idea that PB should ignore the potential incineration of the world is silly. We get excited by unexpectedly good Tory polling subsamples in Wales, this is even more exciting than that
I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
Yes, all very murky.
One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
Yep. He wants digital opinion-formers in the West like us to be getting in a lather about 'will he won't he?' use nukes.
So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
Yes, some Hispanics are Black.
These three categories are methodologically problematic, to say the least. Hispanic is a linguistic category, whose members vary from direct descendants of the conquistadors on the one extreme to native Americans who were conquered by them on the other. Asian means at least half the world's population, encompassing more races and languages than you could shake a stick at. And Black presumably means descendants of African slaves or people who closely resemble them.
"black" appears now to encompass what used to be called, at least in the UK, "mixed race".
You can just imagine the lardy **** going 'No problem your sheikness, looks like a totally sensible biz decision to me'
The mother of a P&O worker told a Mirror sister title that P&O staff were told they had "five minutes to get their stuff and get off the ships".
P&O staff were told they were being laid off by a pre-recorded video message. The message said: "Your final day of employment is today. I do accept that there are no words that can make the situation any better today. I realise that this will have come as a shock to you, and we will provide you with all of the ongoing support possible."
He then confirmed that all serving crew members would be replaced by a third party company.
Labour MP Diana Johnson told the Commons today: "I understand from the RMT union that these agency staff, mainly from overseas, are in buses on the quayside with a security firm... wearing balaclavas and taking British crew off these ships.
I am not sure why she has to make the point they are from overseas. That's all a bit "coming here, taking our jobs", but if this is true it is appalling.
Labour's position on this is self contradictory and absurd. Diana Johnson sounds like Nigel Farage.
Shades of Gordon Brown trying to sound like UKIP with his "British Jobs for British Workers" stuff
Not his finest hour, that, and I think he regrets it. The authentic - and very unUKippy - Gordon Brown was more as per the Mrs Duffy exchange. He's an internationalist at heart.
Well this Russian aircraft movement has tanked my efficiency at work today.
The most reassuring thing that I've seen said on it is that US/UK intelligence agencies have been very on the ball so far with all of this - see predicting the invasion when few people really believed it.
I'm not seeing anything about US reservists being recalled or their strategic forces being readied, which suggests they don't think anything requires that. If we do start seeing a general mobilisation or something then it's time to panic.
The US navy has been asking for volunteers to deploy to Europe
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
I found it interesting the misses in the opposite direction (Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)
There's a nice summary plot a bit further down the article. The misses are all for 'majority' positions.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
It's still an overestimate, but of course with small %s even the median is still almost bound to be higher than the reality.
- Some of the "True proportion" figures look a bit dodgy to me For example "members of a union" 4% might be not far off as a percentage of all adults, but more appropriate would be the percentage of people in work who are in a union. Or "atheists" 3%, when a quarter of Americans say they don't believe in god (not far off the median estimate of 33%).
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Not really - it's expensive to maintain, and doesn't give him a real advantage.
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Not really - it's expensive to maintain, and doesn't give him a real advantage.
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
If you look back over the past couple of weeks all planes flying to and from the Middle East to Moscow have been taking that route further East. I have been assuming that Air Traffic Control are routing planes that way to make sure they avoid any possibility at all of getting caught up in combat or mistaken for military craft by either side.
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Not really - it's expensive to maintain, and doesn't give him a real advantage.
He's just holding at a sweetener for Germany.
Part of the reason that there is no interest in it from the West, is the largely Russian population. The Germans wouldn't want it, even if offered.
EDIT: and yes, I read that "Foundations of Geopolitics..." thing.... Turgid nonsense which looking like copy and pasta from Houston Stewart Chamberlain with slashfic from Adolf as a topping.
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Well, I’ve got a solution for that. It’s a bit “HYUFD” though.
Here's a thought on hostages I have had for some time, but haven't been able to find a congressman or senator to share it with. (Alas, "Scoop" Jackson has long left the scene.): We (the United States, the UK, and other democratic nations) should secretly collect hostages from nations like Iran in advance, so as to be ready, when the time comes, to exchange hostages, rather than paying ransom. I repeat, secretly.
I think we should recognize that are in a low-level war with Iran, and will be, as long as the current government there is in power.
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
To me, that looks like they were avoiding Ukrainian airspace. Quite sensible, given circumstances ...
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
I find that one explicable - if you go by the amount of copy the issue gets in the papers and on social media 21% of the population being transgender would feel about right.
The one that knocks me out is 30% live in New York. I mean, ok, it is the BIG Apple, but still.
21% transgender, 30% gay or lesbian, 29% bisexual.
So one interpretation is that people think that 80% of the US population is gay, bisexual or transgender.
That same survey had atheists, Muslims and Jews at around 30% each, leaving only 10% for Christians, Hindus, agnostics, etc.
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Well, I’ve got a solution for that. It’s a bit “HYUFD” though.
You can just imagine the lardy **** going 'No problem your sheikness, looks like a totally sensible biz decision to me'
The mother of a P&O worker told a Mirror sister title that P&O staff were told they had "five minutes to get their stuff and get off the ships".
P&O staff were told they were being laid off by a pre-recorded video message. The message said: "Your final day of employment is today. I do accept that there are no words that can make the situation any better today. I realise that this will have come as a shock to you, and we will provide you with all of the ongoing support possible."
He then confirmed that all serving crew members would be replaced by a third party company.
Labour MP Diana Johnson told the Commons today: "I understand from the RMT union that these agency staff, mainly from overseas, are in buses on the quayside with a security firm... wearing balaclavas and taking British crew off these ships.
I am not sure why she has to make the point they are from overseas. That's all a bit "coming here, taking our jobs", but if this is true it is appalling.
Labour's position on this is self contradictory and absurd. Diana Johnson sounds like Nigel Farage.
Shades of Gordon Brown trying to sound like UKIP with his "British Jobs for British Workers" stuff
Not his finest hour, that, and I think he regrets it. The authentic - and very unUKippy - Gordon Brown was more as per the Mrs Duffy exchange. He's an internationalist at heart.
I sometimes wonder how much better he’d have done if he dumped all the political games trying to outflank the Tories (thinking of the GOAT stuff as well for instance) and was just himself. I don’t think his average views are massively different from those of the public (or were at that time).
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
What percentage of people do you reckon are bad with percentages?
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Well, I’ve got a solution for that. It’s a bit “HYUFD” though.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
What percentage of people do you reckon are bad with percentages?
Doesn’t matter. 43% of statistics are made up anyway.
Just one more thing to worry about is MSM complete silence about Russian plane movements. This could just be their usual 24 hour lag behind twitter, or the government is worried enough to have D noticed them.
Good point. Not even a whisper on any of the liveblogs (that I can see). Yet this is now ALL OVER social media
Caveat emptor with this next tweet. I'm not sure WHY this is a "bad omen", without context. It is quite likely Russian planes do this every day?
"Bad omen, 2 X Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL-76MD RFF9923/RA-78831 en route to #Kaliningrad."
Kaliningrad contains massive Russian bases. They must fly in and out fairly frequently.
Yes, surely
The theory touted below that tweet is that these are unusually big planes, designed for carrying heavy shit. So maybe the Russians are preparing a nuke missile in Kaliningrad?
Again, I have no idea if this is a credible interpretation. The guy sending out these tweets seems to be an "amateur geopolitical strategist", not a pro military analyst
He has got 38k followers tho
IL-76 - as Wikipedia would tell you - is the standard heavy transport for the Russian military. They have over a hundred of them.
The Russians put nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad years ago.
Kaliningrad is a big problem. As long as it is stuck there out on a limb from RU, Putin will never be happy.
Well, I’ve got a solution for that. It’s a bit “HYUFD” though.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
What percentage of people do you reckon are bad with percentages?
If you're talking about being instinctively able to evaluate risks which should add up to 100%, then 213%
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
I’ve actually SEEN one of these boltholes. A fantastic house in the far southwest corner of the Australian coast, in Western Oz
I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse
A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out
Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
Idiots. Time to get rid of mask altogether and forever.
There appears to be an abundance of international evidence that masking is near or completely useless against omicron (e.g. Hong Kong, NZ). It's not clear why anyone would persisting with an intrusive, antisocial measure for no obvious health benefit.
Has there been a scientific study demonstrating this?
I can't see how @Anabobazina can come to that conclusion. If one has a respiratory tract infection, and one wears a mask, then (a) the pace/speed at which viral matter comes out the mouth is slowed dramatically, and (b) a significant portion is simply goìng to get trapped by the mask.
Now, it's entirely possible that - because Omicron is so infectious - that R0 only coms down to (say) 2 with compulsory masking. It's also fine to say that, given high levels of natural immunity and vaccinations, then the benefits of compulsory masking are outweighed by its costs.
But it is clearly rubbish to claim - without evidence - that it does nothing to reduce transmission rates.
And in countries with limited natural immunity (*cough* China) it it probably essential to minimise viral load recieved by the immune naïve, and slow the spread of the disease.
I said "there appears to be" and "near or completely useless". I am simply reading off from the numbers abroad. I haven't come to any confirmed conclusion. I am simply asking why anyone would persist with the masks in the absence of much evidence of their effectiveness against omicron. They do, after all, have massive downsides of their own.
Yeah, but an R of 3 and an R of 2.5 both show ridiculously steep curves, that it would be very hard to tell apart by simple eyeballing. And yet the former case will result in a 80% of cases happening in a four week period and infections reaching 80% of the population, while in the latter, it's five and a half weeks and 62%.
We are lucky as a nation that (a) lots of us have had Covid, and (b) everyone has been vaccinated (often triple vaccinated) with decent Western vaccines. And we should probably have removed mask mandates earlier
But in China, yeah, they should probably keep them. It'll be utterly shit even with them... but it won't be quite as shit as it would otherwise be.
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
I found it interesting the misses in the opposite direction (Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
Trouble with a lot of those boltholes is many are still partially closed for Covid. I did a scorecard for various escape options and Morocco was coming out top: frequent flights, short haul so easy to get back if things change for the better, no visas, manageable Covid entry rules, affordable, and agriculturally not over-dependent on imports.
Quite a lot of NATO military bases near Morocco tho. Starting with Gibraltar which would surely get nuked in the first round. So you’re at risk of radiation if the north wind blows
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
It's not shocking, but is a reminder about the way people see the world.
I would also urge the use of the median figures, which YouGov also provided. In the equivalent UK survey a while back, at least one person suggested we had 90% employment. They were either not paying attention or confused employed and unemployed.
Hang on...
How is the population defined? What proportion of the workforce (i.e. people who wish to be employed) is in work?
I reckon the answer to that in the UK is over 90%.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
I found it interesting the misses in the opposite direction (Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)
What's a "high school degree"?
What used to be called a 'high school diploma', I think.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
I find that one explicable - if you go by the amount of copy the issue gets in the papers and on social media 21% of the population being transgender would feel about right.
The one that knocks me out is 30% live in New York. I mean, ok, it is the BIG Apple, but still.
21% transgender, 30% gay or lesbian, 29% bisexual.
So one interpretation is that people think that 80% of the US population is gay, bisexual or transgender.
That's what happens when you rely on pornography as your main source of news.
I believe Ipsos MORI or Kantar do a similar style question every so often for the UK with similar levels of completely wrong.
21% transgender is perhaps the most striking figure of ignorance. But it is a crowded field.
Asian, Black and Hispanic add up to 109%
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
My reaction to that poll is somewhat different.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %. They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
It's not shocking, but is a reminder about the way people see the world.
I would also urge the use of the median figures, which YouGov also provided. In the equivalent UK survey a while back, at least one person suggested we had 90% employment. They were either not paying attention or confused employed and unemployed.
Hang on...
How is the population defined? What proportion of the workforce (i.e. people who wish to be employed) is in work?
I reckon the answer to that in the UK is over 90%.
Erm, sorry, I have ironically made the same mistake I was critiquing. The question was "unemployed"...!
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
To me, that looks like they were avoiding Ukrainian airspace. Quite sensible, given circumstances ...
The interesting thing about recent Russian domestic flight paths is that they are leaving clear airspace between the Caspian Sea and Ukraine, which suggests Russia may be firing, or planning to fire, missiles from their fleet there.
Sailor friend suggests if they really do sack all the staff (and it's not just a ballsy opening move in a negotiation), it could be weeks before the ferries start moving again.
Hope they scupper the ships.
According to this video "employment terminated from today"
I really don't know what to think. Some of the OSINT analysis has the Ukrainian front in the Donbas on the verge of collapse, which would be a major turning point in the war.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
Yes, all very murky.
One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
Yep. He wants digital opinion-formers in the West like us to be getting in a lather about 'will he won't he?' use nukes.
So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
To me, that looks like they were avoiding Ukrainian airspace. Quite sensible, given circumstances ...
The interesting thing about recent Russian domestic flight paths is that they are leaving clear airspace between the Caspian Sea and Ukraine, which suggests Russia may be firing, or planning to fire, missiles from their fleet there.
Given the history of Ukrainian & Russian missiles vs airliners, I wouldn't fly within 500 miles of that war zone...
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
I think we should start worrying when the Western billionaires start heading for their boltholes in South America or New Zealand or wherever they plan to survive armageddon - anyone watching their movements?
I’ve actually SEEN one of these boltholes. A fantastic house in the far southwest corner of the Australian coast, in Western Oz
I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse
A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out
Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
Only trouble with that is that, congratuating yourself on surviving nuclear armageddon, you decide to unwind with a nice walk, swim, even sitting down on the veranda and one of Australia's lethal forms of wildlife takes you out
The UK public thought that 15% of under 16 girls got pregnant every year.
The survey you've linked to doesn't say this. The question is about 15-19 year old girls, and the 15% is across all countries surveyed rather than just the UK (16%).
It's less obviously absurd to give that high a figure for 15-19 year old girls as opposed to under 16s, although still very wrong (given the accurate answer in the UK is 3%).
Here's a Ukrainian MP doing a tour of some of the destroyed Russian vehicles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbLwK6ZKrEI (notably Honcharenko in yet another Ukrainian politician who used to be viewed as pro-Russian but it now solidly in the Ukraine camp; his father-in-law is senior in Gazprom, and he has been accused of working with FSB agents. Those doubts have been dispelled pretty sharply post invasion)
Ukrainian troops have pushed in the south west, and the front line is now nearer Kherson than Mykolaiv. Next port of call will be Kherson I guess. Already we have evidence that Russia have evacuated the airport, which is ~15km from the assumed front line.
Comments
In brief: the events of the last two days (the speech, the planes) suggest Putin might well drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine
"On Putin, nukes, terror, how to understand his threats and what he might do — and how to prepare ourselves to act
We must be ready to act decisively to take away control
Strange developments today, but fear is useless 🇺🇦
new via
@RenewGreatPower"
https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w
The author IS an expert in this field
92% live in NY, California and Texas.
In the event this approach even turns out to be lawful, they will have lost me as a customer. I won’t be the only one.
@eyespymp
Outside Russia Today's office on Millbank Alex Salmond's driver loading a fridge into the back of the Mercedes as he watches.
2:35 PM · Mar 17, 2022·TweetDeck
https://twitter.com/eyespymp/status/1504466445236723728
Sir Humphrey Appleby : Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic.
The news today is interesting, if perturbing. This is a site that follows news developments closely, and discusses them, often with much wisdom and insight. So we discuss this.
YOU are the one that chucks a mental at any bad news, and runs away
Each to their own, friend
Sometimes it is just plain bad luck.
So one interpretation is that people think that 80% of the US population is gay, bisexual or transgender.
The Russians have otherwise gone pretty much nowhere over recent days - but that also shows that Ukraine's potential to launch counter-attacks is very low.
It doesn't look like the verge of defeat that might prompt a desperate dictator to reach for the nuclear option.
On the other, wishing we'd booked tickets with Stena Line already.
People are chronically bad at estimating things, especially in terms of %.
They are considerably less bad at estimating common things than rare things.
Why is that shocking to anyone?
One thing is for sure: Putin at least wants us to THINK he’s capable of something insane. That confuses us, and confusion benefits him
It’s looking pretty muddy.
But I'd bet the respondents weren't really thinking of thosee crossover bits when they came up with numbers of three racial categories that add up to over 100%.
Mum ordered £4,500 Uber to Ukraine after 'one too many drinks'
A mum claims she ordered a £4,500 taxi to war-torn Ukraine to 'help' after 'one too many drinks'. Leoni Fildes was only saved by having 'insufficient funds' in her account.
Leoni had been out to celebrate her friend's birthday on Saturday when the pair turned to talk of the war in Ukraine. The 34-year-old claims she had already downed a 'few double pink gins and 'shots of Sambuca' when she drunkenly decided to go there in a taxi to 'help' the Ukrainian cause.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/mum-ordered-4500-uber-ukraine-23418648
(Blue the survey estimates, red the reality)
Like, the Mean response to the Transgender question was 21%
The Median response was 12%
That suggests an absolute banananananas spread.
I would also urge the use of the median figures, which YouGov also provided. In the equivalent UK survey a while back, at least one person suggested we had 90% employment. They were either not paying attention or confused employed and unemployed.
1) Each side's government, military and intelligence will know stuff that is useful, as well as try to get the other side to think they know stuff that seems useful but isn't.
2) No-one at all who knows anything that does not have to be public knowledge can let the public and PBers know it without the enemy knowing it as well.
3) You cannot know what the media on all sides are being directed to report and not report.
4) You cannot know whether a report, whether true or false, is principally directed at friend or foe.
5) In the case of nuclear attack we have every reason to think that for tactical reasons no warning will be given even minutes in advance.
Therefore everything should be considered with care. Caveat emptor.
The favourites are being very circumspect where they can in the conditions.
So in that sense what you're doing (but not me) is playing his game. Could what you're doing even be described as traitorous? No, that would be going too far. But certainly playing his game.
Discussing the “latest rumour on Twitter that someone somewhere did something that possibly means something else” is about 50% of our discourse. The rest is enjoyably pointless arguments and fabulously arcane infodumps. It’s a nice mix which is presumably why you come back here
Also, the idea that PB should ignore the potential incineration of the world is silly. We get excited by unexpectedly good Tory polling subsamples in Wales, this is even more exciting than that
Someone on Twitter (hello @Anabobazina) has pointed out the route taken by the private jets out of Moscow. They didn’t take the quickest route to Dubai, they got out of Russian airspace as fast as they could, and THEN headed for Dubai
I’m not an aviation boffin. But we surely have some on here. Is there a perfectly normal explanation for this? Or is it indicative of fear in the passengers?
- This shows the mean response. Median is here if you scroll a bit:
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/15/americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population
and is of course much closer - and I would argue more appropriate.
eg Have a household income over $1 million? the median guess is 10% (mean 20%).
It's still an overestimate, but of course with small %s even the median is still almost bound to be higher than the reality.
- Some of the "True proportion" figures look a bit dodgy to me
For example "members of a union" 4% might be not far off as a percentage of all adults, but more appropriate would be the percentage of people in work who are in a union.
Or "atheists" 3%, when a quarter of Americans say they don't believe in god (not far off the median estimate of 33%).
Compare:
https://www.flightradar24.com/ETD64/2b2b8980
It avoids the Caucuses and Ukraine.
EDIT: and yes, I read that "Foundations of Geopolitics..." thing.... Turgid nonsense which looking like copy and pasta from Houston Stewart Chamberlain with slashfic from Adolf as a topping.
States should not take hostages
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/perceptions-are-not-reality-things-world-gets-wrong
The UK public thought that 15% of under 16 girls got pregnant every year.
PS That is 21300% in HYUFD percentage.
I was told it was owned by a famous billionaire in America. Specifically bought to avoid apocalypse
A good choice. It’s near the margaret river. So lots of nice food and wine. Also far far far away from everywhere and everything else, including fall-out
Even if someone nuked Perth you’d probably be fine. It’s about 200 miles north
We are lucky as a nation that (a) lots of us have had Covid, and (b) everyone has been vaccinated (often triple vaccinated) with decent Western vaccines. And we should probably have removed mask mandates earlier
But in China, yeah, they should probably keep them. It'll be utterly shit even with them... but it won't be quite as shit as it would otherwise be.
https://imgur.com/a/5zC5GeU
I was also making the same point back then about the mean/median
How is the population defined? What proportion of the workforce (i.e. people who wish to be employed) is in work?
I reckon the answer to that in the UK is over 90%.
According to this video "employment terminated from today"
https://mobile.twitter.com/bbcsoutheast/status/1504450370675908608
I was also making the same point back then about the mean/median
It's less obviously absurd to give that high a figure for 15-19 year old girls as opposed to under 16s, although still very wrong (given the accurate answer in the UK is 3%).
https://twitter.com/Time123On/status/1504480233151361031
Here's a Ukrainian MP doing a tour of some of the destroyed Russian vehicles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbLwK6ZKrEI (notably Honcharenko in yet another Ukrainian politician who used to be viewed as pro-Russian but it now solidly in the Ukraine camp; his father-in-law is senior in Gazprom, and he has been accused of working with FSB agents. Those doubts have been dispelled pretty sharply post invasion)
Ukrainian troops have pushed in the south west, and the front line is now nearer Kherson than Mykolaiv. Next port of call will be Kherson I guess. Already we have evidence that Russia have evacuated the airport, which is ~15km from the assumed front line.