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Day 15 of the Ukraine crisis and some of Friday’s front pages – politicalbetting.com
Day 15 of the Ukraine crisis and some of Friday’s front pages – politicalbetting.com
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Day 15 of the Ukraine crisis and some of Friday’s front pages – politicalbetting.com
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Mate, I could do a top 50! I love megaliths, if I go anywhere and find out there is some mysterious ancient stone monument nearby, I practically orgasm
And now you've set me off. Here are my top ten megalithic monuments of the world
10. Newgrange, Ireland
9. Avebury, England
8. Carnac, France
7. Castlerigg, England
6. Uragh, Ireland
5. Callanish, Scotland
4. Ggantija, Malta
3. Brodgar, Orkney
2. Stonehenge, England
1. Gobekli Tepe, Turkey
And I have seen them all
Yes I am pretty sure. We can round it down to 10kg if you'd like but I am still as lean as I was because I've bulked so slowly.
Key points:
"Chernihiv is now assessed to be isolated, joining Mariupol in that regard.
The front of the long-stalled Russian military convoy north of Kyiv has made incremental progress, moving from about 20 km outside the city center to 15 km away. Another advance on Kyiv is now 40 km to the east of the city, the senior U.S. defense official says.
U.S. has made weapons deliveries to the Ukrainians within the last 24 hours, with more planned within the day. Plan is to get them “as much and as fast as we can, for as long as we can.” No transfer has been interrupted by the Russians – “yet,” the senior defense official says."
Worth pointing out that the Russian advance is as far as Irpin, and they started at Hostomel, so it's not exactly virgin ground being fought over.
How extensive the Navalny protests are this weekend will be vert interesting.
This seemed eminently avoidable for Jacinda. The utter cock up with omicron there: trying useless restrictions like vaxports that have failed everywhere and leaning on extreme isolation rules was just stupid. Overall NZ has had an excellent pandemic but recency bias has probably done for her.
If you line them both up it directs you down the entrance tunnel to Maes Howe. Which is also aligned with the setting sun on the solstice, bathing the chamber in light.
It doesn't work any more as the axis of the earth had shifted since then.
Macron 30%
Le Pen 18%
Pecresse 12%
Melenchon 11%
Zemmour 11%
https://www.opinion-way.com/fr/barometre-opinionway-kea-partners-election-presidentielle-2022
I think there will be few of the ruling class In the post Putin government.
It’s the FCO, not fucking Buzzfeed
But the inability of Leeds, Burnley, Watford and Norwich to pick up a single point lately has cheered me up a little.
We've a lot of games in hand now. Although that will probably only serve to make our goal difference worse.
11/2 about an EFC relegation seems value.
I'm on at eights. Which seems monstrous considering who we have left to play.
A remnant, yes, but somehow still a fantastical structure.
One of the many many surprises of the wonderful Stonehenge exhibition at the British Museum (which I may have menshed) was discovering just how interlinked these worlds were. Skara Brae, Stonehenge, northwest France, Germany, Denmark, even Greece - they exchanged ideas, objects, memes, motifs - as they travelled easily around Europe. They wore gold hats and wolf-teeth dresses and they had fabulous mythology. And they inhabited a wholly unspoiled world, perhaps devoid of guilt
I wonder if they were happier than us. Possibly they were
So, if you “opt out the integrated command structure for a variable geometric relationship” are you still obliged to go to aid of an attacked member? That would be a definition whether you were actually in it or not, like the Malmesbury versus the internet argument about France out for 44 years or still actually in?
In fact where you went on to say
“One thing about NATO that seems to get missed is that it is a very variable geometry alliance - there are some minima requirements to be a member, but after that then nature of the relationship a country has with NATO is quite flexible.”
How much flexibility is there today in being able to pick and choose and opt out a conflict?
The Russian Army is clearly struggling, but Russian armies have struggled before, and won out in the end, as we all know
And Putin has plenty of cards to play, most of them barbaric, but he won't mind that
Long way to go
Have you come across the answer to that Leon?
I saw my only ever unexplained phenomenon there. I saw a chap dowsing. He gave his dowsing rods to and American tourist who expressed an interest - had never heard of it before - and the look of wonder on the American who got exactly the same result was a joy to behold.
You never get Castlerigg to yourself though - though the other people enjoying it are part of its charm
But when I was at Mitchell's Fold it was like I was the only soul left on earth.
I love the ancientness of stone circles. But I also love the places where the ancients chose to site them. They feel significant. You can see why they were chosen.
But I wonder if there is something inherently satisfying about stones in a circle. There is a rather nice stone circle on top of Old Pale Heights in Delamere Forest in Cheshire. It dates back to, ooh, about 2,000. It still manages to be quite satisfying.
EDIT: Just seen your list.
I love Stonehenge - for pure stoniness, you can't beat it. But they're particularly difficult to get a good feel for. The most satisfying view of Stonehenge I have ever had was driving past on the A303(?) with the low sun lighting them up. I wasn't even looking for them. But if I could go back to one in the south west, it would be Avebury. They somehow feel more impressively ancient. I think it is the way they are so tied in with the village - like humas have been here for a long, long time.
I've also seen Callanish, in a foul Hebridean rainstorm under a low grey sky. Atmospheric, but not one to come away feeling good about.
The one on your list I really want to see is Brodgar.
I'd also give a polite thumbs up to the Nine Ladies in Derbyshire and the Rollright Stones in Oxfordshire. Sensible, pleasant, unthreatening megaliths suitable for introducing to a maiden aunt.
sucking the cock and balls ofservices rendered to a former Chancellor of the exchequer and the current prime minister, and nobody seems to mind, or even have the bad taste to mention the factSucking probably the other way round come to think of it
- While there is a requirement to go to the aid of members who are attacked "in area*", there is no legally binding definition of what that "aid" should be. So you could send a letter deploring the attack, in theory.
- The 2% minimum spend on defence is a recommendation, without any force/legal basis/or penalties, apart from being neighbourly
*There is special provision to exclude colonial territories - hence the Falklands was "out of area" for NATO.
The Ukrainians are doing very well, inflicting heavy damage on the Russian army and air force, but they're heavily outnumbered, don't have enough forces to cover every front, and so lack the ability to launch a major counter-offensive.
They're going to have to continue to inflict disproportionate losses for a long time to turn the tide.
Hitler didn't just invent his war aims off the cuff. They were the most extreme version of Greater Germany Nationalism that he could find - so there was something in there for everyone.
In normal times you can get away with a fair amount, hence the existence of liberal radio stations and press that were recently shut down, and rather than mass imprisonment of dissidents they seem to pick on a few prominent dissidents like Navalny as a warning to everyone else: there don't seem to be huge numbers of people locked up for long periods. But the lack of certainty is what kills serious open debate - if you're a regular critic then sooner or later you will get arrested.
My impression, though, is that the military think they're gradually winning the war by successive encirclement, so we won't see a coup any time soon, but we could see something civilian.
This wasn't successful for the invasion. I'm not sure why it should be different this time. There certainly hasn't been any message that it would change the policy on direct military intervention - and if it was going to then you would want to make that clear ahead of time so that it might have some deterrent value.
Are you sure?
I’m not saying the situation isn’t dire but Russia hasn’t got unlimited time. Every day that goes, the Ukrainians are training more conscripts whereas Russia’s army is being depleted. Ukraine is also been constantly supplied by western equipment whereas Russia is running down its reserves. The Ukrainians are now a significant net gainer when it comes to equipment as, even not withstanding western supplies, captured equipment from the Russians exceed the losses. It’s also now looking as though the Ukrainian estimates on Russian losses may not be too far off the truth.
What exactly is going to turn this round for Russia?
- Makes Putin look more of an idiot.
- Creates massive paranoia in his inner circle (probably).
- Gets ahead in the information cycle.
The biggest issue with using Chemical weapons is probably the ability of the Russian Army to manoeuvre and fight in areas they've attacked with them.
In the past the USSR/Russian Army was (in)famous for it's training and equipping for massive chemical warfare. There was a bitter joke that the Russian plan for WWIII was, on the outbreak of war, to kill all Germans, East and West, by flooding Germany with 10s of thousands of tons of persistent nerve agents.
I'd be willing to bet most of that capability has been lost now. Without it, chemical weapons would hit the Russians as much as the Ukrainians in close combat.
Go to bed happy.
Little victories.
"KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Satellite photos show Russian convoy outside Kyiv appears to have dispersed to surrounding areas."
Looks like there may be the battle for Kyiv in the next 72ish hours. I would not want to be attacking such well supplied dug in troops. However it's not clear what meaning of dispersed this means, and how much co-ordination they have.
At other times the shadow describes a curve.
https://twitter.com/scotexpress/status/1501967964660195331?s=21
Again the question: what exactly turns it around for Russia at this point?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=808aPr8cRSM
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Now can anyone give an example of an army which was having so much of its equipment captured without being in serious problems ?
However the most recent polling trend does support you HY 🙂
But political betting is trying to predict what happens next and explain why. It may be the bigger factors in this election is not the war bounce for Macron but the threat of his policies going forward, particularly unpopular unfair taxes, retirement age and approach to the credit crunch. Macron very much the EU Nationalist, whilst his opponents probably outnumber him on votes for a withdraw to French nationalism and closure of the borders.
if le pen or Mélenchon wins into second round I will instantly have a bet on them.
The use of chlorine gas in Aleppo was crude, but brutally effective in clearing a city which had survived a siege of years. There is a real fear of a similar effort in Kharkiv or Mariupol.
I don't go as far as to say that the Ukrainians are bound to eventually fail to defend Ukraine east of the Dniepr, but they're clearly only able to fight a valiant rearguard action at present. There's a lot of dying left in the Russian army before that balance of power would change.
Dissent as a safety valve was tolerated; effective opposition was not allowed to exist.
There’s strength in numbers, and there are 34 member states,
It’s said they have already used the evil vacuum weapon. That one really annoys me. 😠
How's this for wacky - the US *lends* nuclear weapons to it's allies. As part of NATO...
This started way back in the 50s. A German fighter jet would sit on the ground (for example), ready for takeoff. A couple of American nuclear bombs attached. An American officer would be there, nominally in charge of the bombs...
On one occasion the American observer was talking to the pilot of the German jet. Turned out the German pilot had got his Iron Cross (which he was wearing) for shooting down American planes in WWII. Which might well have included the American observer chap, they both realised, on swapping dates and times.... Less than a decade later, borrowing nukes.....
While they don't actual do the live alerts anymore, the bombs are still there, in Germany. And the German airforce has an issue with making sure that some of its planes are nuclear capable to carry them.....
But as a way of finding NS, it works fine.
World War III. World. War. Three. It’s only Estonia. How about we right a stiff letter?
Leader Ed Davey praises Keir Starmer for transforming the largest opposition party"
https://www.ft.com/content/544fb07c-c5c2-400f-a19a-50c9a3ebc570
Next 48 hours are crucial, as Russia tries to implement its battle plan on Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1502026746903863298
https://medium.com/britainelects/all-the-right-votes-but-not-necessarily-in-the-right-order-49a405347870
https://twitter.com/rutlandcouncil/status/1502071341616406532
"The winner of that by-election, the Conservatives' Richard Coleman, has now resigned in his turn. He was opposed to plans to build a giant solar farm across over three square miles of land in Essendine, with the capacity to generate renewable power for up to 92,000 homes (or about 5.4 Rutlands)."
And perhaps even only on equinox as flatlander says?
I meant Yeshua not Yahweh in original post. In the Middle East they called it the magic in the North. When it came to building these things was there extra knowledge in the North of Europe?
Oops. Is that Muphry's law?
Plants might grow under panels but it is not really a natural habitat.
😴
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1499074420685615106/photo/1
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1502053976895893521/photo/1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulTmdVG1nSE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gezu6A9zcLU