@IAPonomarenko Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim: “We’re getting prepared for yet another Russian assault. In particular, we have booked 50 buses to transport new POWs.”
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Polls are giving Macron war bounce, the actual vote may not, polling still a long way off, so what are you calling late rally? The election hasn’t really got going yet. This can get very tight for Macron regardless his opponent, because it won’t be a left or right opponent, it will be a strong nationalist, eurosceptic opponent in either Le Pen or Melenchon, armed with what they didn’t have last time, they know his true agenda, that means he won’t get a lot of abstensions in his favour this time, his agenda brought from left to right together with yellow shirts on. I wouldn’t rule out a Macron loss at this stage once it gets down to real issues and what voters on the ground want.
No chance the French will vote for any Putin apologist . The candidate that could have given him problems was Pécresse before her campaign hit the buffers .
Un envío de lanzagranadas e instructores N-LAW de países de la #OTAN llegó a #Kharkiv . Ya los combatientes están en instrucción y desplegados. Translated from Spanish by #UCRANIA REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE:
A consignment of N-LAW grenade launchers and trainers from #OTAN countries arrived at #Kharkiv . The combatants are already in training and deployed.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
Reality is bitting as we need to transition to net zero, but ensure we are self reliant during the transition including new oil and gas production
For those who object they need to explain and justify impoverishing our citizens when a compromise is available and when others will continue and send their product to us anyway
This is another consequence of this war
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
It'll be interesting to see which organisations/campaigns now start struggling for funds.
Please XR. Please XR.
Why would the Russians fund XR? Surely the last thing they want is an accelerated move away from dependence on fossil fuels!
The Russians know we need them. Whatever XR say. If we don't produce them, then we buy them.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Not that surprising, though.
In different ways, Zemmour and Mélenchon are just beyond the pale. I'm not taking questions on that, they just are.
Pécresse has turned out to be a disappointing candidate, a bit like TMay in 2017. She is also a bit stuffed in terms of ideology- she has to distance herself from Macron without going too far into Loonyville, and that leaves her with a fairly small space.
If you want a convincing rival for Macron, you probably end up with someone like le Pen; shades of the great realignment along a national populist vs. global liberal axis. But once that alignment properly shakes out, national populism probably loses handily.
Zemmour the weakest opposing candidate here, although not much in it.
What about Macron versus the centre-right female candidate? Can't remember her name.
I think some of the pollsters aren't even bothering doing hypothetical runoffs for Pecresse because she seems so unlikely to get into the runoff. That said it still seems strange to do polls for Zemmour (and Melenchon) and not her.
That's true, although I remember seeing some head-to-head polls between her and Macron and she was getting closer to beating him in the second round than the other candidates.
Un envío de lanzagranadas e instructores N-LAW de países de la #OTAN llegó a #Kharkiv . Ya los combatientes están en instrucción y desplegados. Translated from Spanish by #UCRANIA REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE:
A consignment of N-LAW grenade launchers and trainers from #OTAN countries arrived at #Kharkiv . The combatants are already in training and deployed.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
@IAPonomarenko Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim: “We’re getting prepared for yet another Russian assault. In particular, we have booked 50 buses to transport new POWs.”
Un envío de lanzagranadas e instructores N-LAW de países de la #OTAN llegó a #Kharkiv . Ya los combatientes están en instrucción y desplegados. Translated from Spanish by #UCRANIA REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE:
A consignment of N-LAW grenade launchers and trainers from #OTAN countries arrived at #Kharkiv . The combatants are already in training and deployed.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
Reality is bitting as we need to transition to net zero, but ensure we are self reliant during the transition including new oil and gas production
For those who object they need to explain and justify impoverishing our citizens when a compromise is available and when others will continue and send their product to us anyway
This is another consequence of this war
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
It'll be interesting to see which organisations/campaigns now start struggling for funds.
Putin just banned the export of all raw materials from Russia apparently...
Good job they are completely self sufficient in all they could ever need. Oh wait….
He's gambling that we blink and if the cost is he fucks his entire people in the process then we are back to the can't make an omelette without breaking eggs story.
@IAPonomarenko Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim: “We’re getting prepared for yet another Russian assault. In particular, we have booked 50 buses to transport new POWs.”
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
They're self sufficient in wheat and fertiliser so they won't starve I think.
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I’m more hopeful now than earlier, now there is movement on it. It is going to make a huge difference.
It makes Ukraine as indestructible as Trigger’s Broom. 🧹
As soon as Putin thinks he’s broken the broom, there it is, with a tough new handle and bristling new head.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
Reality is bitting as we need to transition to net zero, but ensure we are self reliant during the transition including new oil and gas production
For those who object they need to explain and justify impoverishing our citizens when a compromise is available and when others will continue and send their product to us anyway
This is another consequence of this war
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
It'll be interesting to see which organisations/campaigns now start struggling for funds.
Please XR. Please XR.
Why would the Russians fund XR? Surely the last thing they want is an accelerated move away from dependence on fossil fuels!
The Russians know we need them. Whatever XR say. If we don't produce them, then we buy them.
It's far more likely that Russia's been funding the climate change denial mob, being one of the few countries that might even benefit from a warming world.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
They're self sufficient in wheat and fertiliser so they won't starve I think.
Seen the intriguing suggestion that since the USA is gradually retiring A-10 Warthogs they should transfer several squadrons to Ukraine under a lend-lease programme.
Allegedly a straightforward plane to learn to fly.
Hmmmm. It's one way to escalate, but I suspect a short life for the plane - if an expensive one for Russia.
I think this is the most ridiculous suggestion yet and we've had a few fierce contenders. There would be nobody to fly or maintain them and they are completely incompatible with every weapon Ukraine has and its air force's entire logistics system. Also, the A-10 is slow and easy to kill in a turning fight so, if you don't have complete air supremacy, all you can do with it is get your own crews killed.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
It does sound as if that is already happening. I don't think Russia can last the month.
Empty shelves at a Lenta supermarket in Irkutsk, Siberia. This is caused by panic buying triggered by sanctions, collapsing ruble. The nationwide chain has announced it would ration cereals and other basic staples so people couldn’t buy wholesale amounts. Source: IrkCity https://t.co/pU0G6j2cga
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
They're self sufficient in wheat and fertiliser so they won't starve I think.
But the rouble will be worthless so the price of a pack of flour in a few months could be off the scale. Stock up now.
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I’m more hopeful now than earlier, now there is movement on it. It is going to make a huge difference.
It makes Ukraine as indestructible as Trigger’s Broom. 🧹
As soon as Putin thinks he’s broken the broom, there it is, with a tough new handle and bristling new head.
Meanwhile Vlad’s broom just wears out.
Vladlostthelot Is that a Russian city or something else?
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
They're self sufficient in wheat and fertiliser so they won't starve I think.
You still need to grow the wheat, harvest it, store it, distribute it, and sell food produced at the end of it all. All of those require working markets and use other goods and services. The whole economic system in Russia will be clogged up and operating much less efficiently than before, and that's assuming that bits of it don't simply stop dead due to sanctions.
This looks like quite a downbeat assessment of the war situation, in particular the risk that Ukrainian forces defending the front line in the Donbas could be enveloped.
Seen the intriguing suggestion that since the USA is gradually retiring A-10 Warthogs they should transfer several squadrons to Ukraine under a lend-lease programme.
Allegedly a straightforward plane to learn to fly.
Hmmmm. It's one way to escalate, but I suspect a short life for the plane - if an expensive one for Russia.
I think this is the most ridiculous suggestion yet and we've had a few fierce contenders. There would be nobody to fly or maintain them and they are completely incompatible with every weapon Ukraine has and its air force's entire logistics system. Also, the A-10 is slow and easy to kill in a turning fight so, if you don't have complete air supremacy, all you can do with it is get your own crews killed.
Indeed. And as I asked earlier, are these Mig-29s the exact same variant? If not, what’s different and how is it different. Not the end of the world in a war for national survival but I’m thinking of, for example, the U.K. chinook “fleet” circa 2008.
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I disagree. This has to be done very delicately. We do edge close to outright confrontation, which means outright war
I know a senior figure in the defence industry who has been enthusiastic throughout about supplying defensive weapons but is uneasy about supplying fighters - he thinks that Poland is trying to push NATO into a more confrontational line than most members want and it will put them off stepping up other kids of support.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Not that surprising, though.
In different ways, Zemmour and Mélenchon are just beyond the pale. I'm not taking questions on that, they just are.
Pécresse has turned out to be a disappointing candidate, a bit like TMay in 2017. She is also a bit stuffed in terms of ideology- she has to distance herself from Macron without going too far into Loonyville, and that leaves her with a fairly small space.
If you want a convincing rival for Macron, you probably end up with someone like le Pen; shades of the great realignment along a national populist vs. global liberal axis. But once that alignment properly shakes out, national populism probably loses handily.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Polls are giving Macron war bounce, the actual vote may not, polling still a long way off, so what are you calling late rally? The election hasn’t really got going yet. This can get very tight for Macron regardless his opponent, because it won’t be a left or right opponent, it will be a strong nationalist, eurosceptic opponent in either Le Pen or Melenchon, armed with what they didn’t have last time, they know his true agenda, that means he won’t get a lot of abstensions in his favour this time, his agenda brought from left to right together with yellow shirts on. I wouldn’t rule out a Macron loss at this stage once it gets down to real issues and what voters on the ground want.
No chance the French will vote for any Putin apologist . The candidate that could have given him problems was Pécresse before her campaign hit the buffers .
Sounds right to me. It's one of those races where one looks for the value bet, but actually betting anything except the favourite is simpler a loser. Melenchon is picking up a few votes from the splintered far left rather than advancing in the mainstream.
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I disagree. This has to be done very delicately. We do edge close to outright confrontation, which means outright war
Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation, such that it's prepared to allow what remains of the Ukrainian air force to wither on the vine rather than enable the supply of even just 20 replacement fighter jets. Putin will only be emboldened to go further. Threats work.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Yes, and imagine it in 4 weeks, 8, then 16. Total collapse and barter economy
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
It does sound as if that is already happening. I don't think Russia can last the month.
Empty shelves at a Lenta supermarket in Irkutsk, Siberia. This is caused by panic buying triggered by sanctions, collapsing ruble. The nationwide chain has announced it would ration cereals and other basic staples so people couldn’t buy wholesale amounts. Source: IrkCity https://t.co/pU0G6j2cga
When they go for the toilet paper we will know this shit is for real.
Seen the intriguing suggestion that since the USA is gradually retiring A-10 Warthogs they should transfer several squadrons to Ukraine under a lend-lease programme.
Allegedly a straightforward plane to learn to fly.
Hmmmm. It's one way to escalate, but I suspect a short life for the plane - if an expensive one for Russia.
I think this is the most ridiculous suggestion yet and we've had a few fierce contenders. There would be nobody to fly or maintain them and they are completely incompatible with every weapon Ukraine has and its air force's entire logistics system. Also, the A-10 is slow and easy to kill in a turning fight so, if you don't have complete air supremacy, all you can do with it is get your own crews killed.
Indeed. And as I asked earlier, are these Mig-29s the exact same variant? If not, what’s different and how is it different. Not the end of the world in a war for national survival but I’m thinking of, for example, the U.K. chinook “fleet” circa 2008.
No. Polish and Ukrainian Fulcrums started off as similar baseline variants but have pursued different avionics upgrade paths since. However, Ukranian crews could fly and fight them.They'd probably have quite a bit of NATO specific equipment removed before the Ukranians get them.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
It's not ruled out... however, it's not clear how economic it is.
Let's just say that you can extract natural gas for around $12/mmbtu from Lancashire.
That'd be great now, because the landed cost of LNG in the UK is going to be north of $30/mmbtu. But what if the price of gas comes down to $8?
Right now, the UK fracking industry need two things:
(1) regulatory support (i.e. lifting the ban on fracking) (2) tax incentives to encourage UK power generators to enter into long term supply contracts
The second is essential: because if you are selling that gas on the spot market, then the price risk is too much for an energy company to bear. (Don't forget that the oil & gas company is taking geological, engineering and political risk!)
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I disagree. This has to be done very delicately. We do edge close to outright confrontation, which means outright war
Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation, such that it's prepared to allow what remains of the Ukrainian air force to wither on the vine rather than enable the supply of even just 20 replacement fighter jets. Putin will only be emboldened to go further. Threats work.
"Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation"
Perhaps clear to you, but sounds like horseshit to me.
And perhaps you think that possible nuke blackmail by Putin was NOT thought of previously by White House, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom?
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
They're self sufficient in wheat and fertiliser so they won't starve I think.
Just checking the history books, as I know there are many history experts on PB. After extensive research we can now unequivocally confirm that Vladimir Putin fucked far more people than Gengihs Khan, who is reputed to have 16,000,000 descendents at this time. We hope Vladimir Putin fails to seriously impact the lives of 16,000,000, but as Russia descends into poverty and shortages the risk is to many millions of innocent Russian citizens paying a terrible price for the stupid egotistical and psychotic actions of President Vladimir Putin.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
It's not ruled out... however, it's not clear how economic it is.
Let's just say that you can extract natural gas for around $12/mmbtu from Lancashire.
That'd be great now, because the landed cost of LNG in the UK is going to be north of $30/mmbtu. But what if the price of gas comes down to $8?
Right now, the UK fracking industry need two things:
(1) regulatory support (i.e. lifting the ban on fracking) (2) tax incentives to encourage UK power generators to enter into long term supply contracts
The second is essential: because if you are selling that gas on the spot market, then the price risk is too much for an energy company to bear. (Don't forget that the oil & gas company is taking geological, engineering and political risk!)
You must be mistaken Robert, I've been assured by charities and people who've never invested money in their lives that there's no risk in oil and gas and that their profits could easily be taxed at 100% and it wouldn't change the investment picture at all.
As I mentioned recently, the possibility of Ireland abandoning its neutrality policy is growing. If defending Ireland's neutrality is left to the likes of Richard Boyd Barrett, then it's not long for this world.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Yes, and imagine it in 4 weeks, 8, then 16. Total collapse and barter economy
Barter economies are basically a myth. Two parties so rarely have what each other wants at the same time that you can't get by without a medium of exchange. Hence why Zimbabwe got to printing trillion dollar notes rather than saying fuck it, everybody just swap stuff.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
It's not ruled out... however, it's not clear how economic it is.
Let's just say that you can extract natural gas for around $12/mmbtu from Lancashire.
That'd be great now, because the landed cost of LNG in the UK is going to be north of $30/mmbtu. But what if the price of gas comes down to $8?
Right now, the UK fracking industry need two things:
(1) regulatory support (i.e. lifting the ban on fracking) (2) tax incentives to encourage UK power generators to enter into long term supply contracts
The second is essential: because if you are selling that gas on the spot market, then the price risk is too much for an energy company to bear. (Don't forget that the oil & gas company is taking geological, engineering and political risk!)
I would ask a different question. If we end up guaranteeing a price for nuclear and for fracking for (legitimate) reasons of any energy security, is anyone on the business side taking risk anymore? If not, then it feels like a case where a Government concession or licensed monopoly is the answer, with the return based on the bidding process to run it.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Same rule in my tesco 2 years ago. Only 3 bags of bloody *anything* per person.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Yes, well, the field is just awful. Pecresse has triangulated herself into a corner, Melanchon is a trotskyist trouble-maker, Zemmour is a near-fascist poseur. there is a scattering of candidates with no hope whatsoever, and then there's Le Pen, who is familiar enough to appear almost mainstream. If I was French I'd vote Macron, simply to keep everyone else out.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The Irish government has created quite the flap by reviving a WWII era policy of encouraging every farmer - including livestock farmers - to grow tillage crops, in order to reduce the dependency on grain imports for animal feed.
My impression is that there's much more use of imported animal feed for UK livestock than in Ireland (where the grass growth is superior, and there are fewer industrial-scale livestock farms), so I imagine this will be a problem for UK farms. (But it looks like Max has checked the actual stats, and my impression was mostly wrong).
Just checking the history books, as I know there are many history experts on PB. After extensive research we can now unequivocally confirm that Vladimir Putin fucked far more people than Gengihs Khan, who is reputed to have 16,000,000 descendents at this time. We hope Vladimir Putin fails to seriously impact the lives of 16,000,000, but as Russia descends into poverty and shortages the risk is to many millions of innocent Russian citizens paying a terrible price for the stupid egotistical and psychotic actions of President Vladimir Putin.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
Is not timing just about perfect (I ask PB many noted agricultural exports) for wheat farmers in US & Canada to increase their plantings and yields for this year's crop? And is there enough grain in storage in North America & elsewhere to help make up for Ukrainian & Russian grain that will NOT be exported in 2022? And Australia?
Questions above are not rhetorical, but rather hopeful!
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
Atkins diet all round. I’m game.
Let's face it, we all need to lose a few pounds after 2 years of lockdown. A catastrophic and unprecedented global famine could be just the ticket
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
Atkins diet all round. I’m game.
Let's face it, we all need to lose a few pounds after 2 years of lockdown. A catastrophic and unprecedented global famine could be just the ticket
I’m topping up on wine though. Not doing Armageddon sober.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
Reality is bitting as we need to transition to net zero, but ensure we are self reliant during the transition including new oil and gas production
For those who object they need to explain and justify impoverishing our citizens when a compromise is available and when others will continue and send their product to us anyway
This is another consequence of this war
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
Russia has funded anti-fracking groups across Europe, and has successfully got it banned in most of the continent.
It's one of those minor covert acts that I have always regarded as incredibly malicious.
@IAPonomarenko Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim: “We’re getting prepared for yet another Russian assault. In particular, we have booked 50 buses to transport new POWs.”
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
If I was a Russian I would go to the bank tomorrow and take out a ton of roubles and then go to the market and buy as many dry, long lasting food goods as I could get in several car loads and fill my flat to bursting.
Cause they are gonna need it.
They're self sufficient in wheat and fertiliser so they won't starve I think.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Not that surprising, though.
In different ways, Zemmour and Mélenchon are just beyond the pale. I'm not taking questions on that, they just are.
Pécresse has turned out to be a disappointing candidate, a bit like TMay in 2017. She is also a bit stuffed in terms of ideology- she has to distance herself from Macron without going too far into Loonyville, and that leaves her with a fairly small space.
If you want a convincing rival for Macron, you probably end up with someone like le Pen; shades of the great realignment along a national populist vs. global liberal axis. But once that alignment properly shakes out, national populism probably loses handily.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Yes, and imagine it in 4 weeks, 8, then 16. Total collapse and barter economy
Well I'm sure they'll get a fair chance to change political direction in the 2024 presidential election.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
We do import ~50% of our total food consumption. (I'm not sure if this is by value?)
Johnson might soon be making eyes at the farmers he so recently shafted.
Edit: The recent reversal of the neonicotinoids ban could be an overture.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
Atkins diet all round. I’m game.
Let's face it, we all need to lose a few pounds after 2 years of lockdown. A catastrophic and unprecedented global famine could be just the ticket
Speak for yourself. I've got my BMI under 20. Feel free to eat me when I'm the famine's first victim. Maybe the next PB gathering. Not much meat on me, mind.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Not that surprising, though.
In different ways, Zemmour and Mélenchon are just beyond the pale. I'm not taking questions on that, they just are.
Pécresse has turned out to be a disappointing candidate, a bit like TMay in 2017. She is also a bit stuffed in terms of ideology- she has to distance herself from Macron without going too far into Loonyville, and that leaves her with a fairly small space.
If you want a convincing rival for Macron, you probably end up with someone like le Pen; shades of the great realignment along a national populist vs. global liberal axis. But once that alignment properly shakes out, national populism probably loses handily.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Yes, well, the field is just awful. Pecresse has triangulated herself into a corner, Melanchon is a trotskyist trouble-maker, Zemmour is a near-fascist poseur. there is a scattering of candidates with no hope whatsoever, and then there's Le Pen, who is familiar enough to appear almost mainstream. If I was French I'd vote Macron, simply to keep everyone else out.
It is a terrible field. On the other hand, given where Macron has placed himself, and the amount of the political mainstream that he therefore cuts off from light and water, where is the political position that a rival can occupy with a hope of being competitive against him?
We're a week on from the announcement that there would be a sponsorship scheme for Ukrainians with no family in the UK to be able to come to the UK if sponsored by a British individual or organisation, but as yet there are no details on how this scheme will work, or when it might start.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
We do import ~50% of our total food consumption. (I'm not sure if this is by value?)
Johnson might soon be making eyes at the farmers he so recently shafted.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
We do import ~50% of our total food consumption. (I'm not sure if this is by value?)
Johnson might soon be making eyes at the farmers he so recently shafted.
Food consumption for sure, our diets have changed a lot in the last 40 years to prefer continental foods which require imports. I'm not sure how much price inflation we'll get there, I guess it depends on how much wheat is being imported for animal feed in Europe.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Same rule in my tesco 2 years ago. Only 3 bags of bloody *anything* per person.
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
Reality is bitting as we need to transition to net zero, but ensure we are self reliant during the transition including new oil and gas production
For those who object they need to explain and justify impoverishing our citizens when a compromise is available and when others will continue and send their product to us anyway
This is another consequence of this war
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
It'll be interesting to see which organisations/campaigns now start struggling for funds.
Please XR. Please XR.
Speaking of XR:
Tyre Extinguishers: Scores of SUVs have tyres deflated by activists
I thought fracking in the UK had been ruled out on geological grounds?
What time does the PB Geology team clock-on, it'd be good to have an informed view on this.
Reality is bitting as we need to transition to net zero, but ensure we are self reliant during the transition including new oil and gas production
For those who object they need to explain and justify impoverishing our citizens when a compromise is available and when others will continue and send their product to us anyway
This is another consequence of this war
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
It'll be interesting to see which organisations/campaigns now start struggling for funds.
Please XR. Please XR.
Speaking of XR:
Tyre Extinguishers: Scores of SUVs have tyres deflated by activists
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
Yes? I've never understood why people supposedly cannot take different views on different alliances/organisations. It's like when people say it makes no sense to support Sindy and want to be in the EU, when it is perfectly possible someone might be in favour of one union over the other. Or in the EU context, that you might want to take back control in one area but not another. There's nothing unusual or illogical about people taking different stances like that.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
We do import ~50% of our total food consumption. (I'm not sure if this is by value?)
Johnson might soon be making eyes at the farmers he so recently shafted.
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
It did strike me as a somewhat inefficient route. But my assumption was it by agreement with the US to dip its hands in the same blood rather than a direct hop over the border. Make it a US/NATO act and not a Polish one.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
Atkins diet all round. I’m game.
Let's face it, we all need to lose a few pounds after 2 years of lockdown. A catastrophic and unprecedented global famine could be just the ticket
Speak for yourself. I've got my BMI under 20. Feel free to eat me when I'm the famine's first victim. Maybe the next PB gathering. Not much meat on me, mind.
Some vegetarian Dixie Dean substitute for me, please
We're a week on from the announcement that there would be a sponsorship scheme for Ukrainians with no family in the UK to be able to come to the UK if sponsored by a British individual or organisation, but as yet there are no details on how this scheme will work, or when it might start.
They just wanted a good headline and now they got that the idea has been kicked into the long grass . Another world beating load of bollox!
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Yes, well, the field is just awful. Pecresse has triangulated herself into a corner, Melanchon is a trotskyist trouble-maker, Zemmour is a near-fascist poseur. there is a scattering of candidates with no hope whatsoever, and then there's Le Pen, who is familiar enough to appear almost mainstream. If I was French I'd vote Macron, simply to keep everyone else out.
It is a terrible field. On the other hand, given where Macron has placed himself, and the amount of the political mainstream that he therefore cuts off from light and water, where is the political position that a rival can occupy with a hope of being competitive against him?
I forgot to mention the Stalinist and the chap who thinks the Stalinist is a milk-sop .
I'd have thought a centre-right candidate would have had a good chance - take on Macron from the start as "the sensible alternative", get lots of business backing and anyone who's disgruntled, ignore the far right and in the end they vote for you as the anti-Macron, and the left doesn't rally behind him because you're not scary. But Pecresse felt she had to move right to overtake Le Pen, and if you're right wing then you may as well vote for the real thing.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Yes, and imagine it in 4 weeks, 8, then 16. Total collapse and barter economy
Quite whether they blame Putin or the West is anyone's guess, I am not entirely sure we are winning the hearts and minds of Russia's civilian population which if we want to effect political change is a consideration.
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
Yes? I've never understood why people supposedly cannot take different views on different alliances/organisations. It's like when people say it makes no sense to support Sindy and want to be in the EU, when it is perfectly possible someone might be in favour of one union over the other. Or in the EU context, that you might want to take back control in one area but not another. There's nothing unusual or illogical about people taking different stances like that.
Yup. I will defend to great lengths the consistency in me wanting out of the EU we left but being a strong supporter of NATO. It’s to do with the need for consensus, and if I’m honest our relative influence. Same reason I can also defend having supported remaining in an old variant of the EU, when consensus was the rule.
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I disagree. This has to be done very delicately. We do edge close to outright confrontation, which means outright war
Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation, such that it's prepared to allow what remains of the Ukrainian air force to wither on the vine rather than enable the supply of even just 20 replacement fighter jets. Putin will only be emboldened to go further. Threats work.
"Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation"
Perhaps clear to you, but sounds like horseshit to me.
And perhaps you think that possible nuke blackmail by Putin was NOT thought of previously by White House, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom?
I'll leave you to mess around with horseshit and just address your points.
Whether the US has been intimidated by Putin's recent threats or had been intimidated from a point well in advance of the invasion kicking off isn't really the point. It's clearly a weak response regardless. The danger is more that Putin himself will conclude that the equivocation is in response to his threats and that they are working.
What worries me too is that it blurs what seemed previously to be a well defined red line. Supply of logistics to Ukraine would go ahead, the red line being not to go beyond that and involve armed personnel from NATO countries directly. Now it becomes apparent that the supply of logistics too can be compromised, so the red line, wherever it is, is located elsewhere.
Let's just hope that Putin knows where the NATO red line is. At the moment, it's not all that clear to me where it is, and whether it's fixed or not. And if Putin miscalculates, and having been emboldened oversteps it, that's when things get really frightening.
It will be so funny if Melenchon scrapes into the runoff.
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Melenchon making a late rally with the left getting behind him.
However the polls show Macron would trounce Melenchon in any runoff, even more than he would beat Zemmour
Macron is home and dry
Ironically Le Pen now runs him closest in runoff polls
Yes, well, the field is just awful. Pecresse has triangulated herself into a corner, Melanchon is a trotskyist trouble-maker, Zemmour is a near-fascist poseur. there is a scattering of candidates with no hope whatsoever, and then there's Le Pen, who is familiar enough to appear almost mainstream. If I was French I'd vote Macron, simply to keep everyone else out.
It is a terrible field. On the other hand, given where Macron has placed himself, and the amount of the political mainstream that he therefore cuts off from light and water, where is the political position that a rival can occupy with a hope of being competitive against him?
I forgot to mention the Stalinist and the chap who thinks the Stalinist is a milk-sop .
I'd have thought a centre-right candidate would have had a good chance - take on Macron from the start as "the sensible alternative", get lots of business backing and anyone who's disgruntled, ignore the far right and in the end they vote for you as the anti-Macron, and the left doesn't rally behind him because you're not scary. But Pecresse felt she had to move right to overtake Le Pen, and if you're right wing then you may as well vote for the real thing.
She was also never going to beat Macron from the centre either, so ended up being squeezed and it is likely back to a Macron v Le Pen runoff again.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Yes, and imagine it in 4 weeks, 8, then 16. Total collapse and barter economy
Quite whether they blame Putin or the West is anyone's guess, I am not entirely sure we are winning the hearts and minds of Russia's civilian population which if we want to effect political change is a consideration.
This Navalny thread is quite encouraging in that regard
Alexey Navalny @navalny 1/14 Whether Russians actually support the hideous war that Putin has waged against Ukraine is a matter of utmost political importance. The answer to this question will largely define Russia’s place in the history of the 21st century. 9:11 AM · Mar 8, 2022·Twitter for iPhone https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1501123330262380551
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I disagree. This has to be done very delicately. We do edge close to outright confrontation, which means outright war
Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation, such that it's prepared to allow what remains of the Ukrainian air force to wither on the vine rather than enable the supply of even just 20 replacement fighter jets. Putin will only be emboldened to go further. Threats work.
"Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation"
Perhaps clear to you, but sounds like horseshit to me.
And perhaps you think that possible nuke blackmail by Putin was NOT thought of previously by White House, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom?
I'll leave you to mess around with horseshit and just address your points.
Whether the US has been intimidated by Putin's recent threats or had been intimidated from a point well in advance of the invasion kicking off isn't really the point. It's clearly a weak response regardless. The danger is more that Putin himself will conclude that the equivocation is in response to his threats and that they are working.
What worries me too is that it blurs what seemed previously to be a well defined red line. Supply of logistics to Ukraine would go ahead, the red line being to go beyond that and involve armed personnel from NATO countries directly. Now it becomes apparent that the supply of logistics too can be compromised, so the red line, wherever it is, is located elsewhere.
Let's just hope that Putin knows where the NATO red line is. At the moment, it's not all that clear to me where it is, and whether it's fixed or not. And if Putin miscalculates, and having been emboldened oversteps it, that's when things get really frightening.
Has someone actually said the US isn’t going the jet thing? Because last I saw there was a fair bit of support for it over there and I haven’t seen anyone say no.
@IAPonomarenko Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim: “We’re getting prepared for yet another Russian assault. In particular, we have booked 50 buses to transport new POWs.”
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Five kilograms is a lot of sugar to put in one bag. Almost a year's supply, I'd have thought, unless, like Jeremy Corbyn, all Russians make their own jam.
And, moreover, when we now learn that the absurd UK anti-fracking campaign was funded by Russia
Russia has funded anti-fracking groups across Europe, and has successfully got it banned in most of the continent.
It's one of those minor covert acts that I have always regarded as incredibly malicious.
Did they? What did they spend it on? The anti-fracking campaigns that I've seen were run on a shoe-string - typically 2 Green Party members, 3 Nimbys and a big local Facebook effort, vs an over-slick corporate PR effort. All the mainstream party people felt it was a hill they wouldn't choose to die on, so said er, yes, we're agin it too.
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1501288271434842113 "Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Yes, and imagine it in 4 weeks, 8, then 16. Total collapse and barter economy
Quite whether they blame Putin or the West is anyone's guess, I am not entirely sure we are winning the hearts and minds of Russia's civilian population which if we want to effect political change is a consideration.
Perhaps not, but frankly I don't think that can be a key consideration at this moment. The immediate situation is their government's invasive actions which requires a similarly immediate and severe diplomatic response, and unfortunately that cannot be done without also impacting its people.
It would be nice if that led to a fatal weakening of the Putin regime, but entrenched autocracies collapsing is more exception than rule, even though it has happened in times of crisis. But what other option is there? Direct war has been ruled out, giving them what they want is impossible when the desires are so irrational and unreasonable, yet doing nothing is also not supportable after such unforgivable actions.
So we are where we are, even if it doesn't win hearts and minds in Russia. If diminishment and containment is the only open path, so be it.
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
Yes? I've never understood why people supposedly cannot take different views on different alliances/organisations. It's like when people say it makes no sense to support Sindy and want to be in the EU, when it is perfectly possible someone might be in favour of one union over the other. Or in the EU context, that you might want to take back control in one area but not another. There's nothing unusual or illogical about people taking different stances like that.
Yup. I will defend to great lengths the consistency in me wanting out of the EU we left but being a strong supporter of NATO. It’s to do with the need for consensus, and if I’m honest our relative influence. Same reason I can also defend having supported remaining in an old variant of the EU, when consensus was the rule.
There is no place for consensus in NATO and the UK has, at best, marginal influence. It's simply an organ for implementing US foreign policy. European countries tag along because they believe the loss in strategic independence is worth it because they don't have to pay for their own security.
Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday. Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP) All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1501315627386118145
Autarky beckons for Russia. Generally doesn't go well. Cf Albania, North Korea
And a self-inflicted holodomor; their wheat comes from Ukraine.
Ummm, I think Russia is a net exporter of wheat
Wheat, yes. Food it is about neutral. Which implies quite the change to the Russian diet.
At least, I assume so. A lack of exports will do nothing to help the ruble or foster foreign exchange reserves for imports.
Is the disruption of wheat exports (from Russia but especially from Ukraine) likely to be a problem for UK farms dependent on grain for feed? I should know for my day job but I actually don't - I think most of the feed (grain and soya) comes from the Americas, but I'm not sure.
The UK isn't a huge importer of wheat iirc and most of our imports come from Canada. Though I'm sure a shortage elsewhere will result in knock on effects. The biggest worry for us would be a poor harvest because in some years we become a very heavy importer, during a good harvest we're almost self sufficient.
We do import ~50% of our total food consumption. (I'm not sure if this is by value?)
Johnson might soon be making eyes at the farmers he so recently shafted.
Fish. The fishermen will save us.
What's the point of fish if you can't buy the flour to make batter?
Plot twist!! Washington indicates it wasn't pre-consulted on Poland's decision to transfer jets...
Victoria Nuland, State Department Undersecretary, just told Senate cmtte hearing: "To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us."
Sky News is suggesting that the US is going cool on the whole idea of providing or in this case just enabling air reinforcements to Ukraine. Logistical difficulties of providing Poland with replacements promised to Taiwan. Worried that it would be seen as escalation. A no fly zone by the back door. etc etc
FFS
I disagree. This has to be done very delicately. We do edge close to outright confrontation, which means outright war
Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation, such that it's prepared to allow what remains of the Ukrainian air force to wither on the vine rather than enable the supply of even just 20 replacement fighter jets. Putin will only be emboldened to go further. Threats work.
"Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation"
Perhaps clear to you, but sounds like horseshit to me.
And perhaps you think that possible nuke blackmail by Putin was NOT thought of previously by White House, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom?
I'll leave you to mess around with horseshit and just address your points.
Whether the US has been intimidated by Putin's recent threats or had been intimidated from a point well in advance of the invasion kicking off isn't really the point. It's clearly a weak response regardless. The danger is more that Putin himself will conclude that the equivocation is in response to his threats and that they are working.
What worries me too is that it blurs what seemed previously to be a well defined red line. Supply of logistics to Ukraine would go ahead, the red line being to go beyond that and involve armed personnel from NATO countries directly. Now it becomes apparent that the supply of logistics too can be compromised, so the red line, wherever it is, is located elsewhere.
Let's just hope that Putin knows where the NATO red line is. At the moment, it's not all that clear to me where it is, and whether it's fixed or not. And if Putin miscalculates, and having been emboldened oversteps it, that's when things get really frightening.
Excuse me if I leave the strategy to Biden & etc,. and discount armchair strategists (including me).
"Clearly a weak response"? In your learned opinion - which at moment is worth less than 2-cents. Granted, mine may well be worth even less. Still doesn't make yours the Gold Standard.
The fact that the Polish Fulcrums have to go to Ukraine via the US at Ramstein underlines of how the US calls the shots in the NATO "alliance" and how little freedom of action European countries have within it.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
Yes? I've never understood why people supposedly cannot take different views on different alliances/organisations. It's like when people say it makes no sense to support Sindy and want to be in the EU, when it is perfectly possible someone might be in favour of one union over the other. Or in the EU context, that you might want to take back control in one area but not another. There's nothing unusual or illogical about people taking different stances like that.
Yup. I will defend to great lengths the consistency in me wanting out of the EU we left but being a strong supporter of NATO. It’s to do with the need for consensus, and if I’m honest our relative influence. Same reason I can also defend having supported remaining in an old variant of the EU, when consensus was the rule.
There is no place for consensus in NATO and the UK has, at best, marginal influence. It's simply an organ for implementing US foreign policy. European countries tag along because they believe the loss in strategic independence is worth it because they don't have to pay for their own security.
Makes sense to me. Political guff aside, I don't think many people are under illusion about NATO which they can be shocked about.
Comments
Twat.
Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim: “We’re getting prepared for yet another Russian assault. In particular, we have booked 50 buses to transport new POWs.”
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501326237603483648
Un envío de lanzagranadas e instructores N-LAW de países de la #OTAN llegó a #Kharkiv . Ya los combatientes están en instrucción y desplegados.
Translated from Spanish by
#UCRANIA REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE:
A consignment of N-LAW grenade launchers and trainers from #OTAN countries arrived at #Kharkiv . The combatants are already in training and deployed.
https://twitter.com/henrycontra/status/1501326564662853643?s=20&t=3tamDoDdZPnl45tq5lTwug
Go, the NLAWs
Rennes on Tursday are a challenge. Quite a decent side, so I am told.
To Albania we're on our way....
Cause they are gonna need it.
https://www.conservatives.com
It makes Ukraine as indestructible as Trigger’s Broom. 🧹
As soon as Putin thinks he’s broken the broom, there it is, with a tough new handle and bristling new head.
Meanwhile Vlad’s broom just wears out.
Empty shelves at a Lenta supermarket in Irkutsk, Siberia. This is caused by panic buying triggered by sanctions, collapsing ruble. The nationwide chain has announced it would ration cereals and other basic staples so people couldn’t buy wholesale amounts. Source: IrkCity https://t.co/pU0G6j2cga
Is that a Russian city or something else?
And Chicken Keev’s have a cool new name!
"Here in Moscow, several large Russian supermarkets are limiting the number of basic goods people can buy at one time. In one shop I saw this notice stating: 'Only one 5kg bag of sugar per person'. The government says this is to limit black market dealing and inflation."
From autocratic middle income country to this in 2 weeks. Kind of impressive.
Let's just say that you can extract natural gas for around $12/mmbtu from Lancashire.
That'd be great now, because the landed cost of LNG in the UK is going to be north of $30/mmbtu. But what if the price of gas comes down to $8?
Right now, the UK fracking industry need two things:
(1) regulatory support (i.e. lifting the ban on fracking)
(2) tax incentives to encourage UK power generators to enter into long term supply contracts
The second is essential: because if you are selling that gas on the spot market, then the price risk is too much for an energy company to bear. (Don't forget that the oil & gas company is taking geological, engineering and political risk!)
"Clearly the US has been intimidated by Putin's threats of escalation"
Perhaps clear to you, but sounds like horseshit to me.
And perhaps you think that possible nuke blackmail by Putin was NOT thought of previously by White House, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom?
After extensive research we can now unequivocally confirm that Vladimir Putin fucked far more people than Gengihs Khan, who is reputed to have 16,000,000 descendents at this time.
We hope Vladimir Putin fails to seriously impact the lives of 16,000,000, but as Russia descends into poverty and shortages the risk is to many millions of innocent Russian citizens paying a terrible price for the stupid egotistical and psychotic actions of President Vladimir Putin.
https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/0308/1285150-neutrality/
Elabe, 6-7 Dec 2021: Pécresse 52%, Macron 48%.
Elabe, 10-11 Jan 2022: Pécresse 50%, Macron 50%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election#Macron_vs._Pécresse
My impression is that there's much more use of imported animal feed for UK livestock than in Ireland (where the grass growth is superior, and there are fewer industrial-scale livestock farms), so I imagine this will be a problem for UK farms. (But it looks like Max has checked the actual stats, and my impression was mostly wrong).
https://www.theguardian.com/science/commentisfree/2015/may/24/business-genetic-ancestry-charlemagne-adam-rutherford
Questions above are not rhetorical, but rather hopeful!
It's one of those minor covert acts that I have always regarded as incredibly malicious.
Didn't she go bust some time ago?
Johnson might soon be making eyes at the farmers he so recently shafted.
Edit: The recent reversal of the neonicotinoids ban could be an overture.
Feel free to eat me when I'm the famine's first victim.
Maybe the next PB gathering.
Not much meat on me, mind.
Take back control but not that sort of control. That's the wrong sort and we don't want it.
Tyre Extinguishers: Scores of SUVs have tyres deflated by activists
Published 9 hours ago
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-60660711
Geert Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions, Russia, (UK value in brackets):
power distance; 93 (35)
individualism: 39 (89)
masculinity: 36 (66)
uncertainty avoidance: 95 (35)
long term orientation: 81 (51)
indulgence: 20 (69)
https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/russia/
https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/russia,the-uk/
I'd have thought a centre-right candidate would have had a good chance - take on Macron from the start as "the sensible alternative", get lots of business backing and anyone who's disgruntled, ignore the far right and in the end they vote for you as the anti-Macron, and the left doesn't rally behind him because you're not scary. But Pecresse felt she had to move right to overtake Le Pen, and if you're right wing then you may as well vote for the real thing.
Whether the US has been intimidated by Putin's recent threats or had been intimidated from a point well in advance of the invasion kicking off isn't really the point. It's clearly a weak response regardless. The danger is more that Putin himself will conclude that the equivocation is in response to his threats and that they are working.
What worries me too is that it blurs what seemed previously to be a well defined red line. Supply of logistics to Ukraine would go ahead, the red line being not to go beyond that and involve armed personnel from NATO countries directly. Now it becomes apparent that the supply of logistics too can be compromised, so the red line, wherever it is, is located elsewhere.
Let's just hope that Putin knows where the NATO red line is. At the moment, it's not all that clear to me where it is, and whether it's fixed or not. And if Putin miscalculates, and having been emboldened oversteps it, that's when things get really frightening.
A bit closer than last time but Macron still wins
Alexey Navalny
@navalny
1/14 Whether Russians actually support the hideous war that Putin has waged against Ukraine is a matter of utmost political importance. The answer to this question will largely define Russia’s place in the history of the 21st century.
9:11 AM · Mar 8, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1501123330262380551
Including..
It would be nice if that led to a fatal weakening of the Putin regime, but entrenched autocracies collapsing is more exception than rule, even though it has happened in times of crisis. But what other option is there? Direct war has been ruled out, giving them what they want is impossible when the desires are so irrational and unreasonable, yet doing nothing is also not supportable after such unforgivable actions.
So we are where we are, even if it doesn't win hearts and minds in Russia. If diminishment and containment is the only open path, so be it.
"Clearly a weak response"? In your learned opinion - which at moment is worth less than 2-cents. Granted, mine may well be worth even less. Still doesn't make yours the Gold Standard.