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The French election: Mélenchon to make the runoff looks a value bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924

    THREE MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead...

    They'll probably get one or two leads during March if I had to make a guess.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,173
    Trump has a cunning plan:

    @jdawsey1
    Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia. "And then we say, China did it, we didn't do, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch."


    https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1500325620789743622
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "An estimated 3,000 Americans have answered Ukraine's call for foreign volunteers to fight Russia's invasion, a representative from the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington DC told the Voice of America news service."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    I got an A in A Level History and I think I am right. So that is certainly not the end of the matter
    You certainly deserve an A in How To Be A Knob.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1500120722877947906?s=21

    Dr Mike Martin

    “I’m gonna call this:

    I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power.

    I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.

    Why?

    The Ru forces are poorly equipped, led, and supplied. Morale is non-existent.

    The Ukrs have very high morale, are fighting on home ground with the population behind them, and seem to have enough resources for now.

    These things are the components of fighting power.

    And I think that once the Russian armed forces fall apart, Putin won’t be able to remain in power.

    We will see over the next ten days whether I am right.

    Armies that don’t recover their dead from the battlefield tend not to remain cohesive fighting forces.

    Within the next ten days it will be clear whether I am right or not; not that all of the steps I outline will happen in the next ten days.”

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    I studied history at a proper Russell Group university too
    Yeah, but have you ever kissed a girl?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    My mum is so 💜 with Mail on Sunday, I just know she’ll text me in morning to say “it’s alright Jade, Bojo has a six point plan, he’s going to win the war.”

    image

    It's pathetic, isn't it?

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday have become a complete joke
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    Yeah, but have you ever kissed a girl?
    Mornin' all.

    Mr D our young Essex friend is married, so presumably......
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    It's pathetic, isn't it?

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday have become a complete joke
    It’s not the Mail and the Mail on Sunday which are a complete joke, it’s their readership.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited March 2022

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
    Their mobile crematoria are called tanks....

    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    It’s not the Mail and the Mail on Sunday which are a complete joke, it’s their readership.
    The bit that I found 'amusing', in a rather black way, was that our PM is 'moving to assume leadership of global efforts to end the war'.
    Thanks to his 'leadership' Britain can only be a bit player, not a leader!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The bit that I found 'amusing', in a rather black way, was that our PM is 'moving to assume leadership of global efforts to end the war'.
    Thanks to his 'leadership' Britain can only be a bit player, not a leader!
    Some folks are not just deluded, they are wilfully deluded. They want to believe lies. I’m sure the psychology industry has a term for them. Normal folk just call them twats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited March 2022

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ. Just create a de facto one by providing huge numbers of shoulder-fired missiles.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited March 2022

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    My estimation is that we will be forced into an escalation by Putin anyway so I think you're wrong.

    This is no time for NIMBYism. Yes, it's very tough, very grim and bloody awful. But that's war. And we have to defend civilisation.

    So it's time to fight.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    edited March 2022
    Alistair said:

    I am amazed you passed on the free hit of HUYFD clearly having no fucking clue what you meant by literature review.

    Absolutely mortifying for him.
    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I missed it because I only skim read his post knowing it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Their mobile crematoria are called tanks....

    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.
    Yes, but if you operate a tank it’s a bit of a given that you are going to be toasted to death in any proper war. What is more novel is an army which refuses to attempt to recover the fallen and give them a half-decent send-off.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    philiph said:

    259 not 260, so from the day before
    Could be chalk and cheese
    Oh, my computer is still on US time. You mean this one?

    Wordle 260 1/6*

    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864

    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ. Just create a de facto one by providing huge numbers of shoulder-fired missiles.
    We’d struggle to do a better job than Russia’s Air Force is doing on its own at the moment. Why take the risk?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I only skim read his post because I knew it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
    The fact that he is a big fan of Franco tells you all you need to know about HYUFD.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    TimT said:

    Oh, my computer is still on US time. You mean this one?

    Wordle 260 1/6*

    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    That's the one: )
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ.
    I think it will come anyway. Putin will continue to escalate this until we have no choice.

    Like it or not the world has changed. So we'd best be ready. It's tough but we need to get over it.

    The biggest problem I have right now is that I think Joe Biden is a wet blanket. His disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan undoubtedly fed Putin's narrative for Ukraine: directly contributed to it. We made the same mistake in the build up to the Falklands. It was our naval defence cuts which greenlit the Argentinian invasion. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/margaret-thatcher-warned-naval-cuts-lead-falklands-274521

    And Boris Johnson is a useless sack of shit. The last person you want in a war situation. You need someone incredibly organised, in command of the facts and with a core of steel. Maggie, basically.

    Fortunately for them and the rest of the world, we clearly have some brilliant leaders in Ukraine. Thanks to the internet they are able to galvanise reaction and action.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited March 2022
    Incidentally that article by Sophy Antrobus points out that a No Fly Zone isn't necessarily the solution anyway.

    I'm pretty sure this is going to escalate whether we like it or not. That's why we need to stand up to Putin now. We demand a ceasefire, give him 48 hours to enact it and enter talks, or else ...

    We stood up to Krushchev. We have to stand up to Putin.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Wordle willy waving is still a thing?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Heathener said:

    I think it will come anyway. Putin will continue to escalate this until we have no choice.

    Like it or not the world has changed. So we'd best be ready. It's tough but we need to get over it.

    The biggest problem I have right now is that I think Joe Biden is a wet blanket. His disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan undoubtedly fed Putin's narrative for Ukraine: directly contributed to it. We made the same mistake in the build up to the Falklands. It was our naval defence cuts which greenlit the Argentinian invasion. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/margaret-thatcher-warned-naval-cuts-lead-falklands-274521

    And Boris Johnson is a useless sack of shit. The last person you want in a war situation. You need someone incredibly organised, in command of the facts and with a core of steel. Maggie, basically.

    Fortunately for them and the rest of the world, we clearly have some brilliant leaders in Ukraine. Thanks to the internet they are able to galvanise reaction and action.

    Putin will define any action by the west as an act of war if he wants to.
    It may br supply of arms, intelligence, economic sanctions of some sort or any other thing that crops up that causes him angst.
    If and when Putin declares doing X is an act if war, he will ramp up the nuclear threat. He will have hus justification.
    Creating a NFZ is a short cut to this point.
    The debate is should we get there with a proactive decision on our terms or wait for Putin to declare it on which ever spurious grounds he chooses at a time that suits him, probably when he is feeling vulnerable and seeing the possibility of defeat.
    No matter which way it goes it will be a time Putin is stressed or push him there. Unattractive options, but is there another?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Heathener said:

    Wordle willy waving is still a thing?

    Willy waving doesn't need the excuse of wordle. It was History last night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    ydoethur said:

    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I missed it because I only skim read his post knowing it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
    Yes, the appeal to authority option is a weird choice, logically speaking.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    philiph said:

    Putin will define any action by the west as an act of war if he wants to.
    It may br supply of arms, intelligence, economic sanctions of some sort or any other thing that crops up that causes him angst.
    If and when Putin declares doing X is an act if war, he will ramp up the nuclear threat. He will have hus justification.
    Creatiny a NFZ is a short cut to this point.
    The debate is should we get there with a proactive decision on our terms or wait for Putin to declare it on which ever spurious grounds he chooses at a time that suits him, probably when he is feeling vulnerable and seeing the possibility of defeat.
    No matter which way it goes it will be a time Putin is stressed or push him there. Unattractive options, but is there another?
    Great post and good to see someone engaging with this on what I would call a realistic level.

    My concern tactically is that we have let Putin dictate all the military terms and we have to stop that right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Dura_Ace said:

    Actual evidence of:

    Tanks (108, of which destroyed: 31, damaged: 2, abandoned: 24, captured: 50)
    AFV (76, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 16, captured: 33)
    IFV (107, of which destroyed: 38, abandoned: 24, captured: 43)
    APC (42, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 20)

    Plus shitloads of MRAP, IMV and crappy trucks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    I don't blame the Ukranians for chatting shit because their high morale is one of their few advantages and they've got to maintain it as long as possible. But this is the best documented war in history and the old propaganda tricks just don't work anymore. Everybody sees everything.
    Well documented doesn't mean every loss will be able to be publicly documented of course, so it seems reasonable to assume the numbers are higher than that, but as you say I cannot imagine anyone serious thinks their estimates are particularly accurate. It's a confusing situation, so long as they're not going full comical ali being generous with the estimates wont undermine matters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    kle4 said:

    Yes, the appeal to authority option is a weird choice, logically speaking.
    Well, it is for somebody who has quite low qualifications and rejects the authority of those better qualified than him.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    kle4 said:

    Well documented doesn't mean every loss will be able to be publicly documented of course, so it seems reasonable to assume the numbers are higher than that, but as you say I cannot imagine anyone serious thinks their estimates are particularly accurate. It's a confusing situation, so long as they're not going full comical ali being generous with the estimates wont undermine matters.
    How do you classify a multi mile long column of vehicles that appear outwardly serviceable but are stuck with no apparent means of moving?
    Disabled, destroyed, abandoned? Should they appear in the figures?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    https://youtu.be/SXtbrRyN9cI
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348
    Heathener said:

    My estimation is that we will be forced into an escalation by Putin anyway so I think you're wrong.

    This is no time for NIMBYism. Yes, it's very tough, very grim and bloody awful. But that's war. And we have to defend civilisation.

    So it's time to fight.
    Still pushing Putin’s agenda I see.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    Dura_Ace said:

    Actual evidence of:

    Tanks (108, of which destroyed: 31, damaged: 2, abandoned: 24, captured: 50)
    AFV (76, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 16, captured: 33)
    IFV (107, of which destroyed: 38, abandoned: 24, captured: 43)
    APC (42, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 20)

    Plus shitloads of MRAP, IMV and crappy trucks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    I don't blame the Ukranians for chatting shit because their high morale is one of their few advantages and they've got to maintain it as long as possible. But this is the best documented war in history and the old propaganda tricks just don't work anymore. Everybody sees everything.
    An awful lot more seem to be being captured than destroyed. Evidence of a lack of Russian will to fight, lack of fuel or a mixture of the two?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    Didn't it already effectively hold the Donbas region before the invasion took place?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,450
    Antiwar protest tweeted by the Navalny organisation in Tomsk, with similar from other cities. There is a big list of other cities too for 1400 local time today.

    https://twitter.com/fbkinfo/status/1500374614148538372?t=rOyjLclq9ax906TyYN-E2A&s=19
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    Didn't it already effectively hold the Donbas region before the invasion took place?
    Only part of it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    https://chess24.com/en/read/news/grand-chess-tour-bans-sergey-karjakin

    Good to see Karjakin getting banned. I always disliked him for being a Putin supporter. What an arsehole. But lots of Russians do support Putin. And travelling the world etc like Karjakin isn't always enough to change their minds.
  • kamski said:

    https://chess24.com/en/read/news/grand-chess-tour-bans-sergey-karjakin

    Good to see Karjakin getting banned. I always disliked him for being a Putin supporter. What an arsehole. But lots of Russians do support Putin. And travelling the world etc like Karjakin isn't always enough to change their minds.

    He also plays very boring chess.

    His nickname is 'The Minister for Defence'. He doesn't win that many games but he is incredibly hard to beat.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,450
    edited March 2022
    Interesting and welcome apology from the RCM over maternity scandals

    Exclusive: In an interview with @thesundaytimes, chief executive of the Royal College of Midwives @GillWaltonRCM apologises for the role the RCM's 'normal birth campaign' played in deaths and injured babies 🧵1/7 #maternitysafety
    https://t.co/Zvbd9Vpha0

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1500368962449776640?t=a0v6mTf91qauWCHPuN8Gqg&s=19
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited March 2022

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
    Exactly. Let the mothers and wives know that there won’t be a send-off, won’t be a funeral, probably won’t even be an acknowledgement that their sons died, let alone where, when and in what circumstances. Just silence.

    A total lack of the basic human dignity, which most countries can manage even in the heat of a war.
  • philiph said:

    How do you classify a multi mile long column of vehicles that appear outwardly serviceable but are stuck with no apparent means of moving?
    Disabled, destroyed, abandoned? Should they appear in the figures?
    Does anyone know the number of parking tickets issued?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    MOD

    The scale and strength of Ukrainian resistance continues to surprise Russia. It has responded by targeting populated areas in multiple locations, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. This is likely to represent an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Russia has previously used similar tactics in Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016, employing both air and ground-based munitions.

    Russian supply lines reportedly continue to be targeted, slowing the rate of advance of their ground forces. There is a realistic possibility that Russia is now attempting to conceal fuel trucks as regular support trucks to minimise losses.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500357239428763649
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,096
    So in summary the Prime Minister ignored advice from MI5 and MI6 not to give a peerage to the son of a former KGB officer, before intervening to hand him government contracts. https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1500232488765034496
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    MOD

    The scale and strength of Ukrainian resistance continues to surprise Russia. It has responded by targeting populated areas in multiple locations, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. This is likely to represent an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Russia has previously used similar tactics in Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016, employing both air and ground-based munitions.

    Russian supply lines reportedly continue to be targeted, slowing the rate of advance of their ground forces. There is a realistic possibility that Russia is now attempting to conceal fuel trucks as regular support trucks to minimise losses.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500357239428763649

    How does one make a fuel truck look like a support truck? Seems like they are pretty distinctive, hence the problem.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,864
    This thread has

    run out of fuel

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,648
    geoffw said:

    Thanks to you guys reporting Twitter stuff here. When I get on Twitter it gives me about a minute before it covers the window telling me to log in or sign up, which I will not do.

    Press sign up, then close the sign-up box that pops up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Christo Grozev linked to an alleged letter from an FSB insider on the Ukraine war, and without commenting on authenticity, it's a very interesting read. I translated and lightly edited it. Starts with a bit of whimper on agri policy, but it sure picks up.

    https://twitter.com/mwr_dbm/status/1500317789390876672

    In another thread the conclusion is “quite probably real, or if not a better fake than we’ve seen before” (the longer the fake, the greater the chance for mistakes - this one is long)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kle4 said:

    How does one make a fuel truck look like a support truck? Seems like they are pretty distinctive, hence the problem.
    https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1497669969139539968

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,648
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but the only military expeditions we would conceivably fight abroad now without US and NATO or UN support are to defend Gibraltar if the Spanish invaded or the Falklands if the Argentines invaded. The UK armed forces are still bigger than those of Argentina and Spain
    I'd look at a map before confidently pronouncing we could defend Gibraltar from Spain.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I'd look at a map before confidently pronouncing we could defend Gibraltar from Spain.
    And also count my landing ships and naval forces. While reflecting that Gib airfield is no man's land if any war breaks out.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,330
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    Totally not the point, but that rather irks me. In the southern section, adjacent to the french, there were considerable gains on the first day. The lack of ability to quickly reinforce and exploit obscured the fact that the German line was shattered and significant advances made. Hell the cavalry nearly got into action.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    Totally not the point, but that rather irks me. In the southern section, adjacent to the french, there were considerable gains on the first day. The lack of ability to quickly reinforce and exploit obscured the fact that the German line was shattered and significant advances made. Hell the cavalry nearly got into action.
    You're so right.

    Totally not the point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited March 2022

    I'd look at a map before confidently pronouncing we could defend Gibraltar from Spain.
    Of course we could. It is a rock and strong defensive position, we have a bigger navy than Spain so would control all the water around it and shell and fire on any Spanish military threatening Gibraltar. We would also land large numbers of paratroopers there and the surrounding area to take that. Then once secure we would also land tanks etc and troops in the area surrounding Gibraltar to secure it.

    We have a bigger airforce than Spain too which would secure the skies and be used to bomb any Spanish troops threatening Gibraltar too
This discussion has been closed.