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The French election: Mélenchon to make the runoff looks a value bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    THREE MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead...

    They'll probably get one or two leads during March if I had to make a guess.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Trump has a cunning plan:

    @jdawsey1
    Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia. "And then we say, China did it, we didn't do, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch."


    https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1500325620789743622
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "An estimated 3,000 Americans have answered Ukraine's call for foreign volunteers to fight Russia's invasion, a representative from the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington DC told the Voice of America news service."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am I banging my head against a brick wall here?
    Everyone else has fled the battlefield.

    Sorry Dixie. You are so completely in the right and HYUFD is so completely unwilling to accept he is wrong - ever - that it seems pointless to make any other comment.

    History is never just about 'facts' or 'events'. It is always about how they were recorded and by whom, why they were recorded and how we interpret them based upon their causes and their effects (as well as the observer bias we ourselves exhibit). To try and separate the reasons for events and their effects from the actual event itself is pointless as it renders the event meaningless.
    I did not go to university but in my 78 years I have experienced a wealth of knowledge and to be honest even I can see @HYUFD is all over the place yet again
    Well I did go to university and I did study history so on this subject at least I will favour my opinion over yours
    I got a B in Higher History and I think you're wrong.

    Let that be an end to the matter.
    I got an A in A Level History and I think I am right. So that is certainly not the end of the matter
    You certainly deserve an A in How To Be A Knob.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1500120722877947906?s=21

    Dr Mike Martin

    “I’m gonna call this:

    I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power.

    I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.

    Why?

    The Ru forces are poorly equipped, led, and supplied. Morale is non-existent.

    The Ukrs have very high morale, are fighting on home ground with the population behind them, and seem to have enough resources for now.

    These things are the components of fighting power.

    And I think that once the Russian armed forces fall apart, Putin won’t be able to remain in power.

    We will see over the next ten days whether I am right.

    Armies that don’t recover their dead from the battlefield tend not to remain cohesive fighting forces.

    Within the next ten days it will be clear whether I am right or not; not that all of the steps I outline will happen in the next ten days.”

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am I banging my head against a brick wall here?
    Everyone else has fled the battlefield.

    Sorry Dixie. You are so completely in the right and HYUFD is so completely unwilling to accept he is wrong - ever - that it seems pointless to make any other comment.

    History is never just about 'facts' or 'events'. It is always about how they were recorded and by whom, why they were recorded and how we interpret them based upon their causes and their effects (as well as the observer bias we ourselves exhibit). To try and separate the reasons for events and their effects from the actual event itself is pointless as it renders the event meaningless.
    I did not go to university but in my 78 years I have experienced a wealth of knowledge and to be honest even I can see @HYUFD is all over the place yet again
    Well I did go to university and I did study history so on this subject at least I will favour my opinion over yours
    I got a B in Higher History and I think you're wrong.

    Let that be an end to the matter.
    I got an A in A Level History and I think I am right. So that is certainly not the end of the matter
    I raise you a 1 in Standard Grade History. Beat that!
    I got an A* in GCSE too, so overall I still got higher grades in history at school than you did
    I studied History of Economic Thought, British Social History and Economic History at a proper Scottish University.

    That's like 3x the History you have. History up to my eyeballs.
    I studied history at a proper Russell Group university too
    Yeah, but have you ever kissed a girl?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    My mum is so 💜 with Mail on Sunday, I just know she’ll text me in morning to say “it’s alright Jade, Bojo has a six point plan, he’s going to win the war.”

    image

    It's pathetic, isn't it?

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday have become a complete joke
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am I banging my head against a brick wall here?
    Everyone else has fled the battlefield.

    Sorry Dixie. You are so completely in the right and HYUFD is so completely unwilling to accept he is wrong - ever - that it seems pointless to make any other comment.

    History is never just about 'facts' or 'events'. It is always about how they were recorded and by whom, why they were recorded and how we interpret them based upon their causes and their effects (as well as the observer bias we ourselves exhibit). To try and separate the reasons for events and their effects from the actual event itself is pointless as it renders the event meaningless.
    I did not go to university but in my 78 years I have experienced a wealth of knowledge and to be honest even I can see @HYUFD is all over the place yet again
    Well I did go to university and I did study history so on this subject at least I will favour my opinion over yours
    I got a B in Higher History and I think you're wrong.

    Let that be an end to the matter.
    I got an A in A Level History and I think I am right. So that is certainly not the end of the matter
    I raise you a 1 in Standard Grade History. Beat that!
    I got an A* in GCSE too, so overall I still got higher grades in history at school than you did
    I studied History of Economic Thought, British Social History and Economic History at a proper Scottish University.

    That's like 3x the History you have. History up to my eyeballs.
    I studied history at a proper Russell Group university too
    Yeah, but have you ever kissed a girl?
    Mornin' all.

    Mr D our young Essex friend is married, so presumably......
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    My mum is so 💜 with Mail on Sunday, I just know she’ll text me in morning to say “it’s alright Jade, Bojo has a six point plan, he’s going to win the war.”

    image

    It's pathetic, isn't it?

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday have become a complete joke
    It’s not the Mail and the Mail on Sunday which are a complete joke, it’s their readership.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited March 2022

    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1500120722877947906?s=21

    Dr Mike Martin

    “I’m gonna call this:

    I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power.

    I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.

    Why?

    The Ru forces are poorly equipped, led, and supplied. Morale is non-existent.

    The Ukrs have very high morale, are fighting on home ground with the population behind them, and seem to have enough resources for now.

    These things are the components of fighting power.

    And I think that once the Russian armed forces fall apart, Putin won’t be able to remain in power.

    We will see over the next ten days whether I am right.

    Armies that don’t recover their dead from the battlefield tend not to remain cohesive fighting forces.

    Within the next ten days it will be clear whether I am right or not; not that all of the steps I outline will happen in the next ten days.”

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
    Their mobile crematoria are called tanks....

    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Heathener said:

    My mum is so 💜 with Mail on Sunday, I just know she’ll text me in morning to say “it’s alright Jade, Bojo has a six point plan, he’s going to win the war.”

    image

    It's pathetic, isn't it?

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday have become a complete joke
    It’s not the Mail and the Mail on Sunday which are a complete joke, it’s their readership.
    The bit that I found 'amusing', in a rather black way, was that our PM is 'moving to assume leadership of global efforts to end the war'.
    Thanks to his 'leadership' Britain can only be a bit player, not a leader!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Heathener said:

    My mum is so 💜 with Mail on Sunday, I just know she’ll text me in morning to say “it’s alright Jade, Bojo has a six point plan, he’s going to win the war.”

    image

    It's pathetic, isn't it?

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday have become a complete joke
    It’s not the Mail and the Mail on Sunday which are a complete joke, it’s their readership.
    The bit that I found 'amusing', in a rather black way, was that our PM is 'moving to assume leadership of global efforts to end the war'.
    Thanks to his 'leadership' Britain can only be a bit player, not a leader!
    Some folks are not just deluded, they are wilfully deluded. They want to believe lies. I’m sure the psychology industry has a term for them. Normal folk just call them twats.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited March 2022

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    My estimation is that we will be forced into an escalation by Putin anyway so I think you're wrong.

    This is no time for NIMBYism. Yes, it's very tough, very grim and bloody awful. But that's war. And we have to defend civilisation.

    So it's time to fight.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited March 2022

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ. Just create a de facto one by providing huge numbers of shoulder-fired missiles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited March 2022
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    "Empirical fact based history" if it means anything would have to mean that the past is taught without reference to values, concepts of better and worse, right and wrong, and taught from no particular point of view in idea, time or place.

    The problem with Marxism (I am a conservative about education) is not that it is interpretative but that it is too narrow and distorts the past by over imposing a theory about what it has to mean.

    Marxism is just one way of many of analysing past events.
    It's easy to do if you know it well enough.
    My old roommate's parents were a Stalinist and a Trot. (They divorced, natch).
    But he'd heard the theories from so young that he was able to learn historical facts and interpret them all through competing Marxist lenses. Without being a believer in the slightest.
    He got a first. In the days when precious few did.
    Does the Whig view of history hit the bin, too?
    If we teach Religious education in schools as though Christianity , islam hindu etc has some validity to it to be given the status of being taught in school (when its clearly not true) then i cannot see why more humanistic forms of thinking like marxism ,anarchism and capitalism cannot be taught as well. To any logical person they all make more sense than believing in a vindictive man in the sky
    You don't teach Theology in History either.

    I did not say you do not teach Marxism at all but if it is taught it should be in A Level Politics and Philosophy not History.

    Same as the place to teach Christianity, Islam and Hindu is primarily in Religious Studies not History
    Good luck teaching the Tudor period without teaching theology.
    My A level was in British and European history 1870 to 1945.
    How do you teach that without Marxism and Nazism playing a central role?
    Fairly easily. Most of it pre 1918 was about Great Power rivalry.

    You can study the causes of the Russian revolution without spending weeks on Marxism and Das Kapital either and you can also teach the Weimar Republic and WW2 without spending weeks on Nazi theories and Mein Kampf as well
    Well, you can, but it would be a superficial treatment of the subject in both cases.
    You don't need an in depth study unless doing it at degree level, or at most A level. Just an overview of the key facts
    Why not? History is about more than key facts. It's also about trying to make sense of what people thought, why they thought that, and how those thoughts motivated them.
    You see, you could argue that is a key fact in itself.

    At degree level (or at least, degree level in an academically rigorous uni) it's much more about how people have tried to make sense of the past.
    Not for my degree it wasn't, that was only a minor part of it
    That's why I put the caveat in.
    It generally isn't at most of the most academic universities, they are taught by leading researchers for whom in depth study of the facts is the key on which analysis is built. Theory comes from the facts not before the facts
    It really isn't, but I realise you might not know that having been at Warwick. Not that you would accept it if you did, having stated it the other way to start.

    How are academics trained? A PhD.

    What's the bedrock of the History PhD? The literature review. Only when that is completed are you let loose on other source material.

    And that is because it's the most important part of it. Until you know what other views there are, you can't realistically analyse them or material in light of them.

    And that is the key to historical practice.
    No it isn't. Reading literature is the heart of English literature not history.

    Source material is the basis of history. Without archival source material it is just literature, not history
    Hyufd, you have an undergraduate degree from a university whose quality of teaching has been questioned by colleagues of mine whose judgement I trust.

    You do not have a PhD. You have never published anything. You have never taught.

    When you have those, come back to me and let me know if your views have changed.

    In the meanwhile, please just understand - for once - that you are wrong. Archival research is important (speaking as somebody who's done it in several countries) but it is not quite the bedrock of history you seem to think it is. All other considerations aside, until you have studied the literature you don't know which sources to look at.

    An unwavering commitment to slavishly following the line of a bunch of third rate criminals who call themselves the cabinet isn't a substitute for actually knowing what you're talking about. As you are showing here, and as you are showing so often, e.g. on lecturing Richard Tyndall on the qualifications needed to be an engineer.
    I am amazed you passed on the free hit of HUYFD clearly having no fucking clue what you meant by literature review.

    Absolutely mortifying for him.
    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I missed it because I only skim read his post knowing it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1500120722877947906?s=21

    Dr Mike Martin

    “I’m gonna call this:

    I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power.

    I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.

    Why?

    The Ru forces are poorly equipped, led, and supplied. Morale is non-existent.

    The Ukrs have very high morale, are fighting on home ground with the population behind them, and seem to have enough resources for now.

    These things are the components of fighting power.

    And I think that once the Russian armed forces fall apart, Putin won’t be able to remain in power.

    We will see over the next ten days whether I am right.

    Armies that don’t recover their dead from the battlefield tend not to remain cohesive fighting forces.

    Within the next ten days it will be clear whether I am right or not; not that all of the steps I outline will happen in the next ten days.”

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
    Their mobile crematoria are called tanks....

    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.
    Yes, but if you operate a tank it’s a bit of a given that you are going to be toasted to death in any proper war. What is more novel is an army which refuses to attempt to recover the fallen and give them a half-decent send-off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ. Just create a de facto one by providing huge numbers of shoulder-fired missiles.
    We’d struggle to do a better job than Russia’s Air Force is doing on its own at the moment. Why take the risk?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    philiph said:

    TimT said:

    philiph said:

    carnforth said:

    Wordle 260 5/6

    ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜
    ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟩🟨🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Lucky today

    Wordle 260 3/6

    ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜🟩🟩⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    Not quite so good from me:

    Wordle 259 4/6*

    ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜
    🟨🟨⬜⬜🟨
    ⬜🟨🟨⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    259 not 260, so from the day before
    Could be chalk and cheese
    Oh, my computer is still on US time. You mean this one?

    Wordle 260 1/6*

    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    "Empirical fact based history" if it means anything would have to mean that the past is taught without reference to values, concepts of better and worse, right and wrong, and taught from no particular point of view in idea, time or place.

    The problem with Marxism (I am a conservative about education) is not that it is interpretative but that it is too narrow and distorts the past by over imposing a theory about what it has to mean.

    Marxism is just one way of many of analysing past events.
    It's easy to do if you know it well enough.
    My old roommate's parents were a Stalinist and a Trot. (They divorced, natch).
    But he'd heard the theories from so young that he was able to learn historical facts and interpret them all through competing Marxist lenses. Without being a believer in the slightest.
    He got a first. In the days when precious few did.
    Does the Whig view of history hit the bin, too?
    If we teach Religious education in schools as though Christianity , islam hindu etc has some validity to it to be given the status of being taught in school (when its clearly not true) then i cannot see why more humanistic forms of thinking like marxism ,anarchism and capitalism cannot be taught as well. To any logical person they all make more sense than believing in a vindictive man in the sky
    You don't teach Theology in History either.

    I did not say you do not teach Marxism at all but if it is taught it should be in A Level Politics and Philosophy not History.

    Same as the place to teach Christianity, Islam and Hindu is primarily in Religious Studies not History
    Good luck teaching the Tudor period without teaching theology.
    My A level was in British and European history 1870 to 1945.
    How do you teach that without Marxism and Nazism playing a central role?
    Fairly easily. Most of it pre 1918 was about Great Power rivalry.

    You can study the causes of the Russian revolution without spending weeks on Marxism and Das Kapital either and you can also teach the Weimar Republic and WW2 without spending weeks on Nazi theories and Mein Kampf as well
    Well, you can, but it would be a superficial treatment of the subject in both cases.
    You don't need an in depth study unless doing it at degree level, or at most A level. Just an overview of the key facts
    Why not? History is about more than key facts. It's also about trying to make sense of what people thought, why they thought that, and how those thoughts motivated them.
    You see, you could argue that is a key fact in itself.

    At degree level (or at least, degree level in an academically rigorous uni) it's much more about how people have tried to make sense of the past.
    Not for my degree it wasn't, that was only a minor part of it
    That's why I put the caveat in.
    It generally isn't at most of the most academic universities, they are taught by leading researchers for whom in depth study of the facts is the key on which analysis is built. Theory comes from the facts not before the facts
    It really isn't, but I realise you might not know that having been at Warwick. Not that you would accept it if you did, having stated it the other way to start.

    How are academics trained? A PhD.

    What's the bedrock of the History PhD? The literature review. Only when that is completed are you let loose on other source material.

    And that is because it's the most important part of it. Until you know what other views there are, you can't realistically analyse them or material in light of them.

    And that is the key to historical practice.
    No it isn't. Reading literature is the heart of English literature not history.

    Source material is the basis of history. Without archival source material it is just literature, not history
    Hyufd, you have an undergraduate degree from a university whose quality of teaching has been questioned by colleagues of mine whose judgement I trust.

    You do not have a PhD. You have never published anything. You have never taught.

    When you have those, come back to me and let me know if your views have changed.

    In the meanwhile, please just understand - for once - that you are wrong. Archival research is important (speaking as somebody who's done it in several countries) but it is not quite the bedrock of history you seem to think it is. All other considerations aside, until you have studied the literature you don't know which sources to look at.

    An unwavering commitment to slavishly following the line of a bunch of third rate criminals who call themselves the cabinet isn't a substitute for actually knowing what you're talking about. As you are showing here, and as you are showing so often, e.g. on lecturing Richard Tyndall on the qualifications needed to be an engineer.
    I am amazed you passed on the free hit of HUYFD clearly having no fucking clue what you meant by literature review.

    Absolutely mortifying for him.
    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I only skim read his post because I knew it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
    The fact that he is a big fan of Franco tells you all you need to know about HYUFD.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TimT said:

    philiph said:

    TimT said:

    philiph said:

    carnforth said:

    Wordle 260 5/6

    ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜
    ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟩🟨🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Lucky today

    Wordle 260 3/6

    ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜🟩🟩⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    Not quite so good from me:

    Wordle 259 4/6*

    ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜
    🟨🟨⬜⬜🟨
    ⬜🟨🟨⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    259 not 260, so from the day before
    Could be chalk and cheese
    Oh, my computer is still on US time. You mean this one?

    Wordle 260 1/6*

    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    That's the one: )
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ.
    I think it will come anyway. Putin will continue to escalate this until we have no choice.

    Like it or not the world has changed. So we'd best be ready. It's tough but we need to get over it.

    The biggest problem I have right now is that I think Joe Biden is a wet blanket. His disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan undoubtedly fed Putin's narrative for Ukraine: directly contributed to it. We made the same mistake in the build up to the Falklands. It was our naval defence cuts which greenlit the Argentinian invasion. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/margaret-thatcher-warned-naval-cuts-lead-falklands-274521

    And Boris Johnson is a useless sack of shit. The last person you want in a war situation. You need someone incredibly organised, in command of the facts and with a core of steel. Maggie, basically.

    Fortunately for them and the rest of the world, we clearly have some brilliant leaders in Ukraine. Thanks to the internet they are able to galvanise reaction and action.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited March 2022
    Incidentally that article by Sophy Antrobus points out that a No Fly Zone isn't necessarily the solution anyway.

    I'm pretty sure this is going to escalate whether we like it or not. That's why we need to stand up to Putin now. We demand a ceasefire, give him 48 hours to enact it and enter talks, or else ...

    We stood up to Krushchev. We have to stand up to Putin.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Wordle willy waving is still a thing?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ.
    I think it will come anyway. Putin will continue to escalate this until we have no choice.

    Like it or not the world has changed. So we'd best be ready. It's tough but we need to get over it.

    The biggest problem I have right now is that I think Joe Biden is a wet blanket. His disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan undoubtedly fed Putin's narrative for Ukraine: directly contributed to it. We made the same mistake in the build up to the Falklands. It was our naval defence cuts which greenlit the Argentinian invasion. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/margaret-thatcher-warned-naval-cuts-lead-falklands-274521

    And Boris Johnson is a useless sack of shit. The last person you want in a war situation. You need someone incredibly organised, in command of the facts and with a core of steel. Maggie, basically.

    Fortunately for them and the rest of the world, we clearly have some brilliant leaders in Ukraine. Thanks to the internet they are able to galvanise reaction and action.

    Putin will define any action by the west as an act of war if he wants to.
    It may br supply of arms, intelligence, economic sanctions of some sort or any other thing that crops up that causes him angst.
    If and when Putin declares doing X is an act if war, he will ramp up the nuclear threat. He will have hus justification.
    Creating a NFZ is a short cut to this point.
    The debate is should we get there with a proactive decision on our terms or wait for Putin to declare it on which ever spurious grounds he chooses at a time that suits him, probably when he is feeling vulnerable and seeing the possibility of defeat.
    No matter which way it goes it will be a time Putin is stressed or push him there. Unattractive options, but is there another?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Heathener said:

    Wordle willy waving is still a thing?

    Willy waving doesn't need the excuse of wordle. It was History last night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    "Empirical fact based history" if it means anything would have to mean that the past is taught without reference to values, concepts of better and worse, right and wrong, and taught from no particular point of view in idea, time or place.

    The problem with Marxism (I am a conservative about education) is not that it is interpretative but that it is too narrow and distorts the past by over imposing a theory about what it has to mean.

    Marxism is just one way of many of analysing past events.
    It's easy to do if you know it well enough.
    My old roommate's parents were a Stalinist and a Trot. (They divorced, natch).
    But he'd heard the theories from so young that he was able to learn historical facts and interpret them all through competing Marxist lenses. Without being a believer in the slightest.
    He got a first. In the days when precious few did.
    Does the Whig view of history hit the bin, too?
    If we teach Religious education in schools as though Christianity , islam hindu etc has some validity to it to be given the status of being taught in school (when its clearly not true) then i cannot see why more humanistic forms of thinking like marxism ,anarchism and capitalism cannot be taught as well. To any logical person they all make more sense than believing in a vindictive man in the sky
    You don't teach Theology in History either.

    I did not say you do not teach Marxism at all but if it is taught it should be in A Level Politics and Philosophy not History.

    Same as the place to teach Christianity, Islam and Hindu is primarily in Religious Studies not History
    Good luck teaching the Tudor period without teaching theology.
    My A level was in British and European history 1870 to 1945.
    How do you teach that without Marxism and Nazism playing a central role?
    Fairly easily. Most of it pre 1918 was about Great Power rivalry.

    You can study the causes of the Russian revolution without spending weeks on Marxism and Das Kapital either and you can also teach the Weimar Republic and WW2 without spending weeks on Nazi theories and Mein Kampf as well
    Well, you can, but it would be a superficial treatment of the subject in both cases.
    You don't need an in depth study unless doing it at degree level, or at most A level. Just an overview of the key facts
    Why not? History is about more than key facts. It's also about trying to make sense of what people thought, why they thought that, and how those thoughts motivated them.
    You see, you could argue that is a key fact in itself.

    At degree level (or at least, degree level in an academically rigorous uni) it's much more about how people have tried to make sense of the past.
    Not for my degree it wasn't, that was only a minor part of it
    That's why I put the caveat in.
    It generally isn't at most of the most academic universities, they are taught by leading researchers for whom in depth study of the facts is the key on which analysis is built. Theory comes from the facts not before the facts
    It really isn't, but I realise you might not know that having been at Warwick. Not that you would accept it if you did, having stated it the other way to start.

    How are academics trained? A PhD.

    What's the bedrock of the History PhD? The literature review. Only when that is completed are you let loose on other source material.

    And that is because it's the most important part of it. Until you know what other views there are, you can't realistically analyse them or material in light of them.

    And that is the key to historical practice.
    No it isn't. Reading literature is the heart of English literature not history.

    Source material is the basis of history. Without archival source material it is just literature, not history
    Hyufd, you have an undergraduate degree from a university whose quality of teaching has been questioned by colleagues of mine whose judgement I trust.

    You do not have a PhD. You have never published anything. You have never taught.

    When you have those, come back to me and let me know if your views have changed.

    In the meanwhile, please just understand - for once - that you are wrong. Archival research is important (speaking as somebody who's done it in several countries) but it is not quite the bedrock of history you seem to think it is. All other considerations aside, until you have studied the literature you don't know which sources to look at.

    An unwavering commitment to slavishly following the line of a bunch of third rate criminals who call themselves the cabinet isn't a substitute for actually knowing what you're talking about. As you are showing here, and as you are showing so often, e.g. on lecturing Richard Tyndall on the qualifications needed to be an engineer.
    I am amazed you passed on the free hit of HUYFD clearly having no fucking clue what you meant by literature review.

    Absolutely mortifying for him.
    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I missed it because I only skim read his post knowing it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
    Yes, the appeal to authority option is a weird choice, logically speaking.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    philiph said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    To be fair, virtually everybody here has said there will be no NFZ.
    I think it will come anyway. Putin will continue to escalate this until we have no choice.

    Like it or not the world has changed. So we'd best be ready. It's tough but we need to get over it.

    The biggest problem I have right now is that I think Joe Biden is a wet blanket. His disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan undoubtedly fed Putin's narrative for Ukraine: directly contributed to it. We made the same mistake in the build up to the Falklands. It was our naval defence cuts which greenlit the Argentinian invasion. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/margaret-thatcher-warned-naval-cuts-lead-falklands-274521

    And Boris Johnson is a useless sack of shit. The last person you want in a war situation. You need someone incredibly organised, in command of the facts and with a core of steel. Maggie, basically.

    Fortunately for them and the rest of the world, we clearly have some brilliant leaders in Ukraine. Thanks to the internet they are able to galvanise reaction and action.

    Putin will define any action by the west as an act of war if he wants to.
    It may br supply of arms, intelligence, economic sanctions of some sort or any other thing that crops up that causes him angst.
    If and when Putin declares doing X is an act if war, he will ramp up the nuclear threat. He will have hus justification.
    Creatiny a NFZ is a short cut to this point.
    The debate is should we get there with a proactive decision on our terms or wait for Putin to declare it on which ever spurious grounds he chooses at a time that suits him, probably when he is feeling vulnerable and seeing the possibility of defeat.
    No matter which way it goes it will be a time Putin is stressed or push him there. Unattractive options, but is there another?
    Great post and good to see someone engaging with this on what I would call a realistic level.

    My concern tactically is that we have let Putin dictate all the military terms and we have to stop that right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Dura_Ace said:



    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.

    Actual evidence of:

    Tanks (108, of which destroyed: 31, damaged: 2, abandoned: 24, captured: 50)
    AFV (76, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 16, captured: 33)
    IFV (107, of which destroyed: 38, abandoned: 24, captured: 43)
    APC (42, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 20)

    Plus shitloads of MRAP, IMV and crappy trucks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    I don't blame the Ukranians for chatting shit because their high morale is one of their few advantages and they've got to maintain it as long as possible. But this is the best documented war in history and the old propaganda tricks just don't work anymore. Everybody sees everything.
    Well documented doesn't mean every loss will be able to be publicly documented of course, so it seems reasonable to assume the numbers are higher than that, but as you say I cannot imagine anyone serious thinks their estimates are particularly accurate. It's a confusing situation, so long as they're not going full comical ali being generous with the estimates wont undermine matters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    "Empirical fact based history" if it means anything would have to mean that the past is taught without reference to values, concepts of better and worse, right and wrong, and taught from no particular point of view in idea, time or place.

    The problem with Marxism (I am a conservative about education) is not that it is interpretative but that it is too narrow and distorts the past by over imposing a theory about what it has to mean.

    Marxism is just one way of many of analysing past events.
    It's easy to do if you know it well enough.
    My old roommate's parents were a Stalinist and a Trot. (They divorced, natch).
    But he'd heard the theories from so young that he was able to learn historical facts and interpret them all through competing Marxist lenses. Without being a believer in the slightest.
    He got a first. In the days when precious few did.
    Does the Whig view of history hit the bin, too?
    If we teach Religious education in schools as though Christianity , islam hindu etc has some validity to it to be given the status of being taught in school (when its clearly not true) then i cannot see why more humanistic forms of thinking like marxism ,anarchism and capitalism cannot be taught as well. To any logical person they all make more sense than believing in a vindictive man in the sky
    You don't teach Theology in History either.

    I did not say you do not teach Marxism at all but if it is taught it should be in A Level Politics and Philosophy not History.

    Same as the place to teach Christianity, Islam and Hindu is primarily in Religious Studies not History
    Good luck teaching the Tudor period without teaching theology.
    My A level was in British and European history 1870 to 1945.
    How do you teach that without Marxism and Nazism playing a central role?
    Fairly easily. Most of it pre 1918 was about Great Power rivalry.

    You can study the causes of the Russian revolution without spending weeks on Marxism and Das Kapital either and you can also teach the Weimar Republic and WW2 without spending weeks on Nazi theories and Mein Kampf as well
    Well, you can, but it would be a superficial treatment of the subject in both cases.
    You don't need an in depth study unless doing it at degree level, or at most A level. Just an overview of the key facts
    Why not? History is about more than key facts. It's also about trying to make sense of what people thought, why they thought that, and how those thoughts motivated them.
    You see, you could argue that is a key fact in itself.

    At degree level (or at least, degree level in an academically rigorous uni) it's much more about how people have tried to make sense of the past.
    Not for my degree it wasn't, that was only a minor part of it
    That's why I put the caveat in.
    It generally isn't at most of the most academic universities, they are taught by leading researchers for whom in depth study of the facts is the key on which analysis is built. Theory comes from the facts not before the facts
    It really isn't, but I realise you might not know that having been at Warwick. Not that you would accept it if you did, having stated it the other way to start.

    How are academics trained? A PhD.

    What's the bedrock of the History PhD? The literature review. Only when that is completed are you let loose on other source material.

    And that is because it's the most important part of it. Until you know what other views there are, you can't realistically analyse them or material in light of them.

    And that is the key to historical practice.
    No it isn't. Reading literature is the heart of English literature not history.

    Source material is the basis of history. Without archival source material it is just literature, not history
    Hyufd, you have an undergraduate degree from a university whose quality of teaching has been questioned by colleagues of mine whose judgement I trust.

    You do not have a PhD. You have never published anything. You have never taught.

    When you have those, come back to me and let me know if your views have changed.

    In the meanwhile, please just understand - for once - that you are wrong. Archival research is important (speaking as somebody who's done it in several countries) but it is not quite the bedrock of history you seem to think it is. All other considerations aside, until you have studied the literature you don't know which sources to look at.

    An unwavering commitment to slavishly following the line of a bunch of third rate criminals who call themselves the cabinet isn't a substitute for actually knowing what you're talking about. As you are showing here, and as you are showing so often, e.g. on lecturing Richard Tyndall on the qualifications needed to be an engineer.
    I am amazed you passed on the free hit of HUYFD clearly having no fucking clue what you meant by literature review.

    Absolutely mortifying for him.
    He was at Warwick. We make allowances.

    (If I’m honest I missed it because I only skim read his post knowing it would be (a) wrong and (b) he would never admit it so it wasn’t worth engaging with him.)

    I’m more amazed by the extent of his stubbornness on this point even though he probably knows he’s wrong. Quite amusing that he used his qualifications to try and thwack Eabhal while ignoring the fact I have far higher qualifications in history than he does.

    The delightful irony of somebody whose ‘facts’ are almost invariably wrong and yet are used to support his increasingly extreme opinions criticising others for pointing out history as an academic discipline doesn’t begin and end with facts is however most amusing.
    Yes, the appeal to authority option is a weird choice, logically speaking.
    Well, it is for somebody who has quite low qualifications and rejects the authority of those better qualified than him.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.

    Actual evidence of:

    Tanks (108, of which destroyed: 31, damaged: 2, abandoned: 24, captured: 50)
    AFV (76, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 16, captured: 33)
    IFV (107, of which destroyed: 38, abandoned: 24, captured: 43)
    APC (42, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 20)

    Plus shitloads of MRAP, IMV and crappy trucks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    I don't blame the Ukranians for chatting shit because their high morale is one of their few advantages and they've got to maintain it as long as possible. But this is the best documented war in history and the old propaganda tricks just don't work anymore. Everybody sees everything.
    Well documented doesn't mean every loss will be able to be publicly documented of course, so it seems reasonable to assume the numbers are higher than that, but as you say I cannot imagine anyone serious thinks their estimates are particularly accurate. It's a confusing situation, so long as they're not going full comical ali being generous with the estimates wont undermine matters.
    How do you classify a multi mile long column of vehicles that appear outwardly serviceable but are stuck with no apparent means of moving?
    Disabled, destroyed, abandoned? Should they appear in the figures?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    https://youtu.be/SXtbrRyN9cI
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Great to see an article in the Observer / Guardian suggesting we should consider a No Fly Zone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/05/no-fly-zones-ukraine-war-escalation

    We HAVE to stand up to Putin.

    An ultimatum: 48 hours to ceasefire or we install a No Fly Zone

    I know this has run for days on end here at PB, and I have tried hard to ignore it, but just for the record:

    There will be no NFZ.

    And we should all be very grateful for that. Homo sapiens might yet survive to see the year of our Lord 2023.
    My estimation is that we will be forced into an escalation by Putin anyway so I think you're wrong.

    This is no time for NIMBYism. Yes, it's very tough, very grim and bloody awful. But that's war. And we have to defend civilisation.

    So it's time to fight.
    Still pushing Putin’s agenda I see.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Dura_Ace said:



    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.

    Actual evidence of:

    Tanks (108, of which destroyed: 31, damaged: 2, abandoned: 24, captured: 50)
    AFV (76, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 16, captured: 33)
    IFV (107, of which destroyed: 38, abandoned: 24, captured: 43)
    APC (42, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 20)

    Plus shitloads of MRAP, IMV and crappy trucks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    I don't blame the Ukranians for chatting shit because their high morale is one of their few advantages and they've got to maintain it as long as possible. But this is the best documented war in history and the old propaganda tricks just don't work anymore. Everybody sees everything.
    An awful lot more seem to be being captured than destroyed. Evidence of a lack of Russian will to fight, lack of fuel or a mixture of the two?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    Didn't it already effectively hold the Donbas region before the invasion took place?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Antiwar protest tweeted by the Navalny organisation in Tomsk, with similar from other cities. There is a big list of other cities too for 1400 local time today.

    https://twitter.com/fbkinfo/status/1500374614148538372?t=rOyjLclq9ax906TyYN-E2A&s=19
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    Didn't it already effectively hold the Donbas region before the invasion took place?
    Only part of it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    https://chess24.com/en/read/news/grand-chess-tour-bans-sergey-karjakin

    Good to see Karjakin getting banned. I always disliked him for being a Putin supporter. What an arsehole. But lots of Russians do support Putin. And travelling the world etc like Karjakin isn't always enough to change their minds.
  • kamski said:

    https://chess24.com/en/read/news/grand-chess-tour-bans-sergey-karjakin

    Good to see Karjakin getting banned. I always disliked him for being a Putin supporter. What an arsehole. But lots of Russians do support Putin. And travelling the world etc like Karjakin isn't always enough to change their minds.

    He also plays very boring chess.

    His nickname is 'The Minister for Defence'. He doesn't win that many games but he is incredibly hard to beat.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    edited March 2022
    Interesting and welcome apology from the RCM over maternity scandals

    Exclusive: In an interview with @thesundaytimes, chief executive of the Royal College of Midwives @GillWaltonRCM apologises for the role the RCM's 'normal birth campaign' played in deaths and injured babies 🧵1/7 #maternitysafety
    https://t.co/Zvbd9Vpha0

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1500368962449776640?t=a0v6mTf91qauWCHPuN8Gqg&s=19
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited March 2022

    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1500120722877947906?s=21

    Dr Mike Martin

    “I’m gonna call this:

    I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power.

    I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.

    Why?

    The Ru forces are poorly equipped, led, and supplied. Morale is non-existent.

    The Ukrs have very high morale, are fighting on home ground with the population behind them, and seem to have enough resources for now.

    These things are the components of fighting power.

    And I think that once the Russian armed forces fall apart, Putin won’t be able to remain in power.

    We will see over the next ten days whether I am right.

    Armies that don’t recover their dead from the battlefield tend not to remain cohesive fighting forces.

    Within the next ten days it will be clear whether I am right or not; not that all of the steps I outline will happen in the next ten days.”

    I read that the Russians have taken a mobile crematorium with them. If I was a Russian soldier I would at least like the comfort of knowing that my comrades and officers would do their very best to recover my mortal remains and return them to my family. I think I’d lose all respect for them if I knew they were just going to fling my cadaver in a big furnace.

    We should be spreading info on that mobile crematorium.
    Exactly. Let the mothers and wives know that there won’t be a send-off, won’t be a funeral, probably won’t even be an acknowledgement that their sons died, let alone where, when and in what circumstances. Just silence.

    A total lack of the basic human dignity, which most countries can manage even in the heat of a war.
  • philiph said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    269 tanks, 945 APC claimed taken out of play by the Ukrainians.

    Actual evidence of:

    Tanks (108, of which destroyed: 31, damaged: 2, abandoned: 24, captured: 50)
    AFV (76, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 16, captured: 33)
    IFV (107, of which destroyed: 38, abandoned: 24, captured: 43)
    APC (42, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 20)

    Plus shitloads of MRAP, IMV and crappy trucks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    I don't blame the Ukranians for chatting shit because their high morale is one of their few advantages and they've got to maintain it as long as possible. But this is the best documented war in history and the old propaganda tricks just don't work anymore. Everybody sees everything.
    Well documented doesn't mean every loss will be able to be publicly documented of course, so it seems reasonable to assume the numbers are higher than that, but as you say I cannot imagine anyone serious thinks their estimates are particularly accurate. It's a confusing situation, so long as they're not going full comical ali being generous with the estimates wont undermine matters.
    How do you classify a multi mile long column of vehicles that appear outwardly serviceable but are stuck with no apparent means of moving?
    Disabled, destroyed, abandoned? Should they appear in the figures?
    Does anyone know the number of parking tickets issued?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MOD

    The scale and strength of Ukrainian resistance continues to surprise Russia. It has responded by targeting populated areas in multiple locations, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. This is likely to represent an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Russia has previously used similar tactics in Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016, employing both air and ground-based munitions.

    Russian supply lines reportedly continue to be targeted, slowing the rate of advance of their ground forces. There is a realistic possibility that Russia is now attempting to conceal fuel trucks as regular support trucks to minimise losses.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500357239428763649
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    So in summary the Prime Minister ignored advice from MI5 and MI6 not to give a peerage to the son of a former KGB officer, before intervening to hand him government contracts. https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1500232488765034496
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    MOD

    The scale and strength of Ukrainian resistance continues to surprise Russia. It has responded by targeting populated areas in multiple locations, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. This is likely to represent an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Russia has previously used similar tactics in Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016, employing both air and ground-based munitions.

    Russian supply lines reportedly continue to be targeted, slowing the rate of advance of their ground forces. There is a realistic possibility that Russia is now attempting to conceal fuel trucks as regular support trucks to minimise losses.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500357239428763649

    How does one make a fuel truck look like a support truck? Seems like they are pretty distinctive, hence the problem.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    This thread has

    run out of fuel

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,890
    geoffw said:

    Thanks to you guys reporting Twitter stuff here. When I get on Twitter it gives me about a minute before it covers the window telling me to log in or sign up, which I will not do.

    Press sign up, then close the sign-up box that pops up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Christo Grozev linked to an alleged letter from an FSB insider on the Ukraine war, and without commenting on authenticity, it's a very interesting read. I translated and lightly edited it. Starts with a bit of whimper on agri policy, but it sure picks up.

    https://twitter.com/mwr_dbm/status/1500317789390876672

    In another thread the conclusion is “quite probably real, or if not a better fake than we’ve seen before” (the longer the fake, the greater the chance for mistakes - this one is long)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    kle4 said:

    MOD

    The scale and strength of Ukrainian resistance continues to surprise Russia. It has responded by targeting populated areas in multiple locations, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. This is likely to represent an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Russia has previously used similar tactics in Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016, employing both air and ground-based munitions.

    Russian supply lines reportedly continue to be targeted, slowing the rate of advance of their ground forces. There is a realistic possibility that Russia is now attempting to conceal fuel trucks as regular support trucks to minimise losses.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500357239428763649

    How does one make a fuel truck look like a support truck? Seems like they are pretty distinctive, hence the problem.
    https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1497669969139539968

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,890
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    We are getting closer to being able to conclude that (absent the nuclear factor) never mind NATO, we or the French could happy kick the arse of the Russian army by ourselves even notionally outnumbered.

    Are we 100% sure of that? Not that I consider him to be in a position to be a perfect judge, but if we believe Dura Ace there doesn't seem to be any part of armed forces that are properly supplied, equipped or trained, or if there are any bits that are so they are too small.
    It's all relative isn't it? The UK forces are good in parts but horribly unbalanced, lacking in support functions and not able to deploy a 100% capable force without significant help from the US. We have no strategic autonomy and appear to be chilled about that,

    Depending on how things pan out the conclusion the government may be tempted to draw is that the Russians are so woeful we can comfortably cut defence spending again.
    Yes but the only military expeditions we would conceivably fight abroad now without US and NATO or UN support are to defend Gibraltar if the Spanish invaded or the Falklands if the Argentines invaded. The UK armed forces are still bigger than those of Argentina and Spain
    I'd look at a map before confidently pronouncing we could defend Gibraltar from Spain.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    We are getting closer to being able to conclude that (absent the nuclear factor) never mind NATO, we or the French could happy kick the arse of the Russian army by ourselves even notionally outnumbered.

    Are we 100% sure of that? Not that I consider him to be in a position to be a perfect judge, but if we believe Dura Ace there doesn't seem to be any part of armed forces that are properly supplied, equipped or trained, or if there are any bits that are so they are too small.
    It's all relative isn't it? The UK forces are good in parts but horribly unbalanced, lacking in support functions and not able to deploy a 100% capable force without significant help from the US. We have no strategic autonomy and appear to be chilled about that,

    Depending on how things pan out the conclusion the government may be tempted to draw is that the Russians are so woeful we can comfortably cut defence spending again.
    Yes but the only military expeditions we would conceivably fight abroad now without US and NATO or UN support are to defend Gibraltar if the Spanish invaded or the Falklands if the Argentines invaded. The UK armed forces are still bigger than those of Argentina and Spain
    I'd look at a map before confidently pronouncing we could defend Gibraltar from Spain.
    And also count my landing ships and naval forces. While reflecting that Gib airfield is no man's land if any war breaks out.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    Totally not the point, but that rather irks me. In the southern section, adjacent to the french, there were considerable gains on the first day. The lack of ability to quickly reinforce and exploit obscured the fact that the German line was shattered and significant advances made. Hell the cavalry nearly got into action.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Russia said it had advanced by 7km (four miles) in the Donbas region, taking several towns and villages"

    We seem to be getting close to this:
    image

    Totally not the point, but that rather irks me. In the southern section, adjacent to the french, there were considerable gains on the first day. The lack of ability to quickly reinforce and exploit obscured the fact that the German line was shattered and significant advances made. Hell the cavalry nearly got into action.
    You're so right.

    Totally not the point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited March 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    We are getting closer to being able to conclude that (absent the nuclear factor) never mind NATO, we or the French could happy kick the arse of the Russian army by ourselves even notionally outnumbered.

    Are we 100% sure of that? Not that I consider him to be in a position to be a perfect judge, but if we believe Dura Ace there doesn't seem to be any part of armed forces that are properly supplied, equipped or trained, or if there are any bits that are so they are too small.
    It's all relative isn't it? The UK forces are good in parts but horribly unbalanced, lacking in support functions and not able to deploy a 100% capable force without significant help from the US. We have no strategic autonomy and appear to be chilled about that,

    Depending on how things pan out the conclusion the government may be tempted to draw is that the Russians are so woeful we can comfortably cut defence spending again.
    Yes but the only military expeditions we would conceivably fight abroad now without US and NATO or UN support are to defend Gibraltar if the Spanish invaded or the Falklands if the Argentines invaded. The UK armed forces are still bigger than those of Argentina and Spain
    I'd look at a map before confidently pronouncing we could defend Gibraltar from Spain.
    Of course we could. It is a rock and strong defensive position, we have a bigger navy than Spain so would control all the water around it and shell and fire on any Spanish military threatening Gibraltar. We would also land large numbers of paratroopers there and the surrounding area to take that. Then once secure we would also land tanks etc and troops in the area surrounding Gibraltar to secure it.

    We have a bigger airforce than Spain too which would secure the skies and be used to bomb any Spanish troops threatening Gibraltar too
This discussion has been closed.