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The French election: Mélenchon to make the runoff looks a value bet – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,521
edited March 2022 in General
imageThe French election: Mélenchon to make the runoff looks a value bet – politicalbetting.com

All he needs to do is to make Jadot a nice offer and he will be in strong running. On the assumption he accrues all the Jadot voteshare (and none of anyone else’s, such as Poutou’s), he will be 5% ahead of 3rd-placed Le Pen (Ipsos), 0.5% behind her and 2.5% ahead of 4th-placed Pécresse (Ifop), and 2% behind her and 3% ahead of Pécresse (OpinionWay). Zemmour and Pécresse would be out of the running, going by all three polls.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 30,301
    First
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    edited March 2022
    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,301
    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    I think the purpose of the bet is that he sneaks down the middle as Le Pen, Zemmour and Pécresse steal just enough votes off each other to know them into 3-5 places.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    If the world or at least Europe gets to the French Presidential election i will not care who wins but be surprised
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    mwadams said:

    Does my writing a comment cause a new thread to spawn automatically now?

    Apparently not.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,583
    FPT:
    IanB2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    turbotubbs said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's nice that it's 18.07 and still fairly light.

    I hope that will help improve everyone's mood as things go on. This has been a very tough winter.

    Must be cloudier here as it’s pretty dark, but I agree with the sentiment.
    Still not completely dark in Dorset at 18:26.

    (I'm hoping that glow on the horizon signals the dying sun, not the dying civilisation.
    From Dorset, civilisation will be well over the horizon ;)
    Fair Point. OTOH no point in incinerating us then.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,773
    ydoethur said:

    mwadams said:

    Does my writing a comment cause a new thread to spawn automatically now?

    Apparently not.
    It was worth testing though.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    Bugger were you there? Sorry to have missed you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    It does not sound good if the Israeli PM meets Putin then tells Israelis to leave.

    Hopefully we are not getting to the stage of hearing our leaders (cowardly) going to undisclosed locations
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,711
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    IanB2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    turbotubbs said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's nice that it's 18.07 and still fairly light.

    I hope that will help improve everyone's mood as things go on. This has been a very tough winter.

    Must be cloudier here as it’s pretty dark, but I agree with the sentiment.
    Still not completely dark in Dorset at 18:26.

    (I'm hoping that glow on the horizon signals the dying sun, not the dying civilisation.
    From Dorset, civilisation will be well over the horizon ;)
    Fair Point. OTOH no point in incinerating us then.
    I reckon we are both good places to be, given prevailing SW winds
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,341
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    I wonder if they teach about Operation Anthropoid?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My irony meter just died.

    (Reuters) - Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine -RIA

    It said Moscow was particularly worried that portable anti-aerial Stinger missiles could end up in the hands of terrorists, posing a threat to airlines.

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500173979893608450

    Some of us remember MH17.

    But I take this to mean the war situation has developed not necessarily to Russia's advantage.

    It is worth noting that every single attack on a civil aircraft by people using MANPADS (and there have been quite a few) has been with Russian weapons or Chinese copies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,702
    state_go_away said:

    It does not sound good if the Israeli PM meets Putin then tells Israelis to leave.

    Hopefully we are not getting to the stage of hearing our leaders (cowardly) going to undisclosed locations

    I think he might be there to give advice on how to run an occupation. Another sign of Putin's cluelessness. Evidence of this rather mounting now.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    edited March 2022
    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping
  • eekeek Posts: 30,301
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Interpol means the Department of International Politics.

    HYUFD seems to think that anything with the name Department in it means it's a department when the important thing to check is who is in charge of the Department and there is (as far as I can see) a distinct lack of a named Head of Department for history there
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My irony meter just died.

    (Reuters) - Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine -RIA

    It said Moscow was particularly worried that portable anti-aerial Stinger missiles could end up in the hands of terrorists, posing a threat to airlines.

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500173979893608450

    Some of us remember MH17.

    But I take this to mean the war situation has developed not necessarily to Russia's advantage.

    Isn’t the irony that Russia is doing more than anyone to pump Ukraine full of weapons?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    I wonder if they teach about Operation Anthropoid?
    Well, "Teaching history from the personal point of view"* would be covered.

    *My youngest really likes the whole get immersed-and-see-it-from-the-personal-point-of-view thing.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    Bugger were you there? Sorry to have missed you.
    I was, but I’m sure there will be more opportunities to come.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Well, there are still some medievalists there - Bjorn Weiler and Phillipp Schofield (not *that* Phillipp Schofield). And they have I believe just appointed a new German studies lecturer after the last one went out with a bang during the merger by effectively telling the management they were a bunch of retards. To their faces. In his interview...he always was a legend, but even more so after that.

    But it's been badly hit by being subsumed. Numbers have cratered and student satisfaction has dropped off a cliff.

    Which is a shame, as it was quite a good history department (and I don't say that just because I taught there for three years). Unfortunately when it needed help it didn't have any powerful friends in the hierarchy and had made rather too many powerful enemies.

    What we're seeing at Aber though is being replicated in many unis elsewhere. The new A-level is largely to blame, but the atrocious quality of the GCSE course doesn't help.

    Both of those are unfortunate as it didn't have to be that way. The ideas had potential, if they had listened to the experts on practicalities.

    Unfortunately, this is a government that likes plausible, arrogant and rather stupid liars. Not experts. And it shows in more fields than education.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,873
    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    state_go_away said:

    It does not sound good if the Israeli PM meets Putin then tells Israelis to leave.

    Hopefully we are not getting to the stage of hearing our leaders (cowardly) going to undisclosed locations

    I recall a brilliant skit from Chris Rock - his friends are giving him stick for livening in a Jewish neighbourhood. He points out - "These guys - they have a really good sense for when it's time to get the fuck out of town".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My irony meter just died.

    (Reuters) - Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine -RIA

    It said Moscow was particularly worried that portable anti-aerial Stinger missiles could end up in the hands of terrorists, posing a threat to airlines.

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500173979893608450

    Some of us remember MH17.

    But I take this to mean the war situation has developed not necessarily to Russia's advantage.

    We are about 31 Kilotons from that state of affairs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,341
    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Good analysis, Melenchon getting some of Jadot's vote and making the runoff on only 15-16% of the vote is an entirely plausible scenario.

    Pécresse has had a complete shocker of a campaign.

    That said I think Macron easily beats Melenchon/Le Pen/Pecresse in the runoff by 60-40 and Zemmour by 65-35.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    JosiasJessop said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
    my plan is to survive with my family and with a country to survive in. Thats it - When it comes to it thats what most people want - they do not actually care about the rights and wrongs of Ukraine (30 years ago Ukraine's army would be threatening us as part of the USSR) . i suggest we say there needs to be a negotiation (sod twitter warriors and virtue signallers) and as part of that we are pausing sending in any weapons and further sanctions
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    Bugger were you there? Sorry to have missed you.
    I was, but I’m sure there will be more opportunities to come.
    Hope so. Excellent evening, great to meet all the PBers I did meet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,341
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Reverse angle.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,911
    JosiasJessop said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
    I think his plan is that NATO countries replace their armed forces with a recorded message saying "We surrender" in Russian.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,711
    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,572
    JosiasJessop said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
    "But Tsar Alexander made it all the way to Paris!" - Stalin after the capture of Berlin in 1945.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,630
    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    I would say Marxists are more guilty of that than Conservatives.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    Bugger were you there? Sorry to have missed you.
    I was, but I’m sure there will be more opportunities to come.
    Hope so. Excellent evening, great to meet all the PBers I did meet.
    One PBer of my acquaintance declined to attend these functions because he found it diffiult to be rude to people he had actually met socially.

    May I assure you that I have no such compunction. :wink:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Well, there are still some medievalists there - Bjorn Weiler and Phillipp Schofield (not *that* Phillipp Schofield). And they have I believe just appointed a new German studies lecturer after the last one went out with a bang during the merger by effectively telling the management they were a bunch of retards. To their faces. In his interview...he always was a legend, but even more so after that.

    But it's been badly hit by being subsumed. Numbers have cratered and student satisfaction has dropped off a cliff.

    Which is a shame, as it was quite a good history department (and I don't say that just because I taught there for three years). Unfortunately when it needed help it didn't have any powerful friends in the hierarchy and had made rather too many powerful enemies.

    What we're seeing at Aber though is being replicated in many unis elsewhere. The new A-level is largely to blame, but the atrocious quality of the GCSE course doesn't help.

    Both of those are unfortunate as it didn't have to be that way. The ideas had potential, if they had listened to the experts on practicalities.

    Unfortunately, this is a government that likes plausible, arrogant and rather stupid liars. Not experts. And it shows in more fields than education.
    Interesting - my eldest is doing history GCSE and is actually learning history. Mind you, it is a private school..... We were discussing Hungary '56 and Czech '68 and she was coming up with parallels with Ukraine and why Putin wants to dominate the place - that was her, not from me.

    That seemed way better than the history that was shovelled at me back in the mid 80s...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    Bugger were you there? Sorry to have missed you.
    I was, but I’m sure there will be more opportunities to come.
    Hope so. Excellent evening, great to meet all the PBers I did meet.
    One PBer of my acquaintance declined to attend these functions because he found it diffiult to be rude to people he had actually met socially.

    May I assure you that I have no such compunction. :wink:
    It was great to meet you, even if your attire was not as advertised.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Shows how quickly things move on. It took a lot of googling to work out what that’s about!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    I would say Marxists are more guilty of that than Conservatives.
    Yes, but that's hardly helpful. 'Zahawi orders no teaching of political views, but that's OK as Lenin and Stalin had their critics shot' doesn't really help. In fact, if that's the only comparison that favours the Tories we're in an even bigger mess than I realised.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Reverse angle.


    Significance of cats in this context?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,773
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My irony meter just died.

    (Reuters) - Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine -RIA

    It said Moscow was particularly worried that portable anti-aerial Stinger missiles could end up in the hands of terrorists, posing a threat to airlines.

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500173979893608450

    Some of us remember MH17.

    But I take this to mean the war situation has developed not necessarily to Russia's advantage.

    Isn’t the irony that Russia is doing more than anyone to pump Ukraine full of weapons?
    Ah, they say. But ours don't actually work, so they are quite safe from terrorists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    It is possible Melenchon could get to the runoff if all the leftwing vote largely unites behind him while the rightwing vote remains split between Zemmour, Le Pen and Pecresse.

    However Macron would like crush Melenchon in the runoff. The latest poll from Ipsos has Macron trouncing Melenchon 67% to 33% with most Pecresse voters voting for Macron in that scenario.

    That is an even bigger margin than the 66% to 34% Macron beats Zemmour by, the 64% to 36% Macron beats Pecresse by and the 59% to 41% Macron beats Le Pen by

    https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1500043703968219138?s=20&t=V6awcI0GHOnhd8dyc7VLww
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    IshmaelZ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Reverse angle.


    Significance of cats in this context?
    Kurt Zouma. I’d forgotten all about it, to be honest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Well, there are still some medievalists there - Bjorn Weiler and Phillipp Schofield (not *that* Phillipp Schofield). And they have I believe just appointed a new German studies lecturer after the last one went out with a bang during the merger by effectively telling the management they were a bunch of retards. To their faces. In his interview...he always was a legend, but even more so after that.

    But it's been badly hit by being subsumed. Numbers have cratered and student satisfaction has dropped off a cliff.

    Which is a shame, as it was quite a good history department (and I don't say that just because I taught there for three years). Unfortunately when it needed help it didn't have any powerful friends in the hierarchy and had made rather too many powerful enemies.

    What we're seeing at Aber though is being replicated in many unis elsewhere. The new A-level is largely to blame, but the atrocious quality of the GCSE course doesn't help.

    Both of those are unfortunate as it didn't have to be that way. The ideas had potential, if they had listened to the experts on practicalities.

    Unfortunately, this is a government that likes plausible, arrogant and rather stupid liars. Not experts. And it shows in more fields than education.
    Interesting - my eldest is doing history GCSE and is actually learning history. Mind you, it is a private school..... We were discussing Hungary '56 and Czech '68 and she was coming up with parallels with Ukraine and why Putin wants to dominate the place - that was her, not from me.

    That seemed way better than the history that was shovelled at me back in the mid 80s...
    It isn't the content that bothers me. As you say, it's much better. I was delighted when I saw it, thinking this would be a vast improvement on the MWH and SHP bullshit (that genuinely was warmed up Marxist nonsense mostly based on historical research 50 years out of date).

    The problem is the assessments, which bear even less of a resemblance to good historical practice than Eric Morecambe's piano playing did to the right notes.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,773
    state_go_away said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
    my plan is to survive with my family and with a country to survive in. Thats it - When it comes to it thats what most people want - they do not actually care about the rights and wrongs of Ukraine (30 years ago Ukraine's army would be threatening us as part of the USSR) . i suggest we say there needs to be a negotiation (sod twitter warriors and virtue signallers) and as part of that we are pausing sending in any weapons and further sanctions
    That's what you do once you've shipped in at least a 4 weeks worth of the (defensive) weapons we are sending them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,341
    IshmaelZ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Reverse angle.


    Significance of cats in this context?
    The West Ham player Kurt Zouma was recently videoed kicking cats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,749
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Reverse angle.


    Apparently a plane flew a message over the ground - 'Cats Lives Matter'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,079
    eek said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Interpol means the Department of International Politics.

    HYUFD seems to think that anything with the name Department in it means it's a department when the important thing to check is who is in charge of the Department and there is (as far as I can see) a distinct lack of a named Head of Department for history there
    Thank you.

    And in the interests of education....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6j4aB5ekm0
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    I am sure a lot of you have seen this from a few years ago but its a reminder of how quickly things get out of hand in war between nuclear states -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cAZZR_Jki0



  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Exactly. Too many people have been watching movies. What do you think happens to someone in the Russian military who refuses a direct order from Putin? Clue: it’s not a referral to HR
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,711
    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    You do not win by rolling over to a bully

    He has to be challenged and made to realise he cannot succeed in his war and the crimes he is committing

    Russia cannot win this and the best hope is for an internal coup

    Appeasement does not work
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Well, there are still some medievalists there - Bjorn Weiler and Phillipp Schofield (not *that* Phillipp Schofield). And they have I believe just appointed a new German studies lecturer after the last one went out with a bang during the merger by effectively telling the management they were a bunch of retards. To their faces. In his interview...he always was a legend, but even more so after that.

    But it's been badly hit by being subsumed. Numbers have cratered and student satisfaction has dropped off a cliff.

    Which is a shame, as it was quite a good history department (and I don't say that just because I taught there for three years). Unfortunately when it needed help it didn't have any powerful friends in the hierarchy and had made rather too many powerful enemies.

    What we're seeing at Aber though is being replicated in many unis elsewhere. The new A-level is largely to blame, but the atrocious quality of the GCSE course doesn't help.

    Both of those are unfortunate as it didn't have to be that way. The ideas had potential, if they had listened to the experts on practicalities.

    Unfortunately, this is a government that likes plausible, arrogant and rather stupid liars. Not experts. And it shows in more fields than education.
    If this government is giving more of our school pupils a ground in factual history and not just Marxist theories all to the good.

    If we have fewer history departments but history departments doing more traditional empirical, research led history that is no bad thing either
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,289
    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Not first. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    To be fair, he’s be unlikely to win the runoff if he made it.

    Bugger were you there? Sorry to have missed you.
    I was, but I’m sure there will be more opportunities to come.
    Hope so. Excellent evening, great to meet all the PBers I did meet.
    One PBer of my acquaintance declined to attend these functions because he found it diffiult to be rude to people he had actually met socially.

    May I assure you that I have no such compunction. :wink:
    It was great to meet you, even if your attire was not as advertised.
    Lol!

    Nice to meet you too. Sorry about the feather boa - in the wash. :(
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    its stupid as well as against the law- FFS this just inflames home opinion back in Russsia
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    FPT
    mwadams said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    BREAKING: Israeli Prime Minister Bennett flew to Moscow in secret during Shabbat and is currently meeting with Russian President Putin.

    https://twitter.com/avimayer/status/1500150119173443584

    Now... that is interesting.

    That suggests that the Russians would like to talk about how to end the war.
    The Israel PM must have gotten some bad news from Putin on his trip there...

    Update: The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges its citizens in Russia to leave the country immediately.

    https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1500152639304122380
    I sense it’s building up to something bigger now. Biden and Boris may be letting allies know they can’t just sit by and watch this massacre they are going to intervene.
    I don't think so. This is governments warning their citizens to leave Russia before martial law is imposed.
    Yes. It must be agony for dual nationality families living in Russia, of which there are many. Can't leave as a family because of visa rules (courtesy of the home office), plus Russians may have difficulties exiting the country anyway. My heart breaks when I think about it.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    It's all game theory innit. If we step gingerly back and sue for peace because Vlad has Ther Bomb that encourages North Korea to beef up its army and invade SK knowing SK will receive no international support of any kind because Ther Bomb.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    As Russia has repeatedly said it's not at war, do these count as PoWs or as unregistered aliens?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,749
    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    Well, I suppose if Putin is arguing they are all one Nation....but it's not a good look.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,702
    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    I relate to your anxiety but I've made a concerted effort to really think it through and I don't think the risk of nuclear war - although it's not zero - is as big as you are perceiving it.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    edited March 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    You do not win by rolling over to a bully

    He has to be challenged and made to realise he cannot succeed in his war and the crimes he is committing

    Russia cannot win this and the best hope is for an internal coup

    Appeasement does not work
    soundbite stuff and not the real reality of a nuclear filled Russia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,873
    state_go_away said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
    my plan is to survive with my family and with a country to survive in. Thats it - When it comes to it thats what most people want - they do not actually care about the rights and wrongs of Ukraine (30 years ago Ukraine's army would be threatening us as part of the USSR) . i suggest we say there needs to be a negotiation (sod twitter warriors and virtue signallers) and as part of that we are pausing sending in any weapons and further sanctions
    So when Putin uses the same threats for his next demand? And his next? When he decides to use nukes anyway, because we've not done everything he wanted?

    We are in a terrible position. Russia and Ukraine are in a worse position. If Putin does decide to use nuclear weapons, it will not be our fault, in any way. It will be his.

    And God help us all.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,773
    I do like this notion of "factual history" being bandied about. One of the things I find most interesting about aechaeology is how often it demonstrates that the "facts" of "factual history" can't quite be right...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some cats at Anfield tonight.


    Reverse angle.


    Significance of cats in this context?
    The West Ham player Kurt Zouma was recently videoed kicking cats.
    Ah thanks
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
  • eekeek Posts: 30,301
    edited March 2022
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    Surely everyone knows that the only facts that HYUFD cares about are whatever is in today’s missive from Bozo central office.

    Thankfully the missives are daily as otherwise he would need to believe multiple different things before lunchtime.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,501
    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Well, there are still some medievalists there - Bjorn Weiler and Phillipp Schofield (not *that* Phillipp Schofield). And they have I believe just appointed a new German studies lecturer after the last one went out with a bang during the merger by effectively telling the management they were a bunch of retards. To their faces. In his interview...he always was a legend, but even more so after that.

    But it's been badly hit by being subsumed. Numbers have cratered and student satisfaction has dropped off a cliff.

    Which is a shame, as it was quite a good history department (and I don't say that just because I taught there for three years). Unfortunately when it needed help it didn't have any powerful friends in the hierarchy and had made rather too many powerful enemies.

    What we're seeing at Aber though is being replicated in many unis elsewhere. The new A-level is largely to blame, but the atrocious quality of the GCSE course doesn't help.

    Both of those are unfortunate as it didn't have to be that way. The ideas had potential, if they had listened to the experts on practicalities.

    Unfortunately, this is a government that likes plausible, arrogant and rather stupid liars. Not experts. And it shows in more fields than education.
    Aber (in general) has been run oddly for a while - I seem to remember they lost a couple of senior compsci types in the early 10s…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    edited March 2022
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    Do we know how many POWs they presented?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    mwadams said:

    state_go_away said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    How the heck can we deescalate? If you think Putin is mad enough to launch nuclear weapons (esp. outside Ukraine), then we might as well let him roll over the entirety of eastern Europe. And even then, he'd find some grievance to go further.

    What is your plan?
    my plan is to survive with my family and with a country to survive in. Thats it - When it comes to it thats what most people want - they do not actually care about the rights and wrongs of Ukraine (30 years ago Ukraine's army would be threatening us as part of the USSR) . i suggest we say there needs to be a negotiation (sod twitter warriors and virtue signallers) and as part of that we are pausing sending in any weapons and further sanctions
    That's what you do once you've shipped in at least a 4 weeks worth of the (defensive) weapons we are sending them.
    make it two and stop now for the world's sake. I doubt there is another two weeks to play with .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    edited March 2022
    mwadams said:

    I do like this notion of "factual history" being bandied about. One of the things I find most interesting about aechaeology is how often it demonstrates that the "facts" of "factual history" can't quite be right...

    I don't.

    But then, what do I know? I'm only an historian with 7 articles and 2 books plus fifteen years' experience of teaching. Apparently everything I know is wrong because the opinions of a lot of fat posh Tories are that it must be.

    Apparently that also makes me left wing - which is ironic because it's my disdain for the attitude of the Tory government that's driving me to Labour, not so much my political views.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    But 55% did not vote for the Tories - hardly a democratic mandate
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    It's all game theory innit. If we step gingerly back and sue for peace because Vlad has Ther Bomb that encourages North Korea to beef up its army and invade SK knowing SK will receive no international support of any kind because Ther Bomb.
    If we think the Russian Army is antiquated.
    Can't wait to see what the NK make of Seoul.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions.
    Genuine LOL.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    kinabalu said:

    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    I relate to your anxiety but I've made a concerted effort to really think it through and I don't think the risk of nuclear war - although it's not zero - is as big as you are perceiving it.
    well thats just a question of laying the odds - The odds i see are scary and need to concentrate the mind
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    Foss said:

    ydoethur said:

    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    Incidentally - from the last thread "As for Aber, its history degree (such as it is) is now offered via Interpol"

    Now I have visions of History being taught at Aberdeen by Reinhard Heydrich.....
    Well, there are still some medievalists there - Bjorn Weiler and Phillipp Schofield (not *that* Phillipp Schofield). And they have I believe just appointed a new German studies lecturer after the last one went out with a bang during the merger by effectively telling the management they were a bunch of retards. To their faces. In his interview...he always was a legend, but even more so after that.

    But it's been badly hit by being subsumed. Numbers have cratered and student satisfaction has dropped off a cliff.

    Which is a shame, as it was quite a good history department (and I don't say that just because I taught there for three years). Unfortunately when it needed help it didn't have any powerful friends in the hierarchy and had made rather too many powerful enemies.

    What we're seeing at Aber though is being replicated in many unis elsewhere. The new A-level is largely to blame, but the atrocious quality of the GCSE course doesn't help.

    Both of those are unfortunate as it didn't have to be that way. The ideas had potential, if they had listened to the experts on practicalities.

    Unfortunately, this is a government that likes plausible, arrogant and rather stupid liars. Not experts. And it shows in more fields than education.
    Aber (in general) has been run oddly for a while - I seem to remember they lost a couple of senior compsci types in the early 10s…
    I remember when I was teaching there the Treasurer who had invested much money in Icelandic banks was invited to leave the premises.

    The security staff were I gather polite but insistent...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    Surely everyone knows that the only facts that HYUFD cares about are whatever is in today’s missive from Bozo central office.

    Thankfully the missives are daily as otherwise he would need to believe multiple different things before lunchtime.
    I would have thought that HYUFD of all people would know that 1066 andf all that is a piss-take of Our Island Story -and actually rather better at times, e.g. the Irish and the Irish Question (still the best summary in my view, and only strengthened by recent events).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,711
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions.
    Genuine LOL.
    That is so funny
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    It's all game theory innit. If we step gingerly back and sue for peace because Vlad has Ther Bomb that encourages North Korea to beef up its army and invade SK knowing SK will receive no international support of any kind because Ther Bomb.
    If we think the Russian Army is antiquated.
    Can't wait to see what the NK make of Seoul.
    Who knows? I am sure NK army officers keep the tyres on their vehicles serviceable, on pain of being shot.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,572
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    But 55% did not vote for the Tories - hardly a democratic mandate
    56.4% in fact.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,184
    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    Albeit better than shooting them, as was the customary practice in 1941.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    You do not win by rolling over to a bully

    He has to be challenged and made to realise he cannot succeed in his war and the crimes he is committing

    Russia cannot win this and the best hope is for an internal coup

    Appeasement does not work
    soundbite stuff and not the real reality of a nuclear filled Russia
    You are right in that things are risky - my own view is Putin could easily order a tactical nuclear strike on a minor town to demonstrate he would use nuclear weapons and scare the west / force Ukraine to surrender - but bear in mind, Putin may also be concerned that ordering the use of nuclear weapons triggers a move against him.

    If the reports that anti-war elements in the FSB leaked details of the assassination plot, then it’s clear there are at least some elements in the Russian security apparatus who are against the war. If there was any inkling nukes were about to be used, good chance that triggers a move against Putin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,341
    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions.
    Genuine LOL.
    That is so funny
    I wonder if he'd consider going into stand up with me?

    We could come on and I would say something bland and uncontroversial like 'water is wet.'

    Then he could shout 'No! Boris has declared water is dry! Therefore it is the driest thing ever!'

    And I could reply, 'but it's still wet...'

    We would have to spend time with each other, which we haven't done for years, but we could make a fortune very fast.
    Do you remember History Today with Rob Newman and David Baddiel?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.


    Is it? I'm no legal expert and could well be wrong, but I thought that it was against the Geneva Convention to Humiliate them, (and a few other things) but I don't think presenting them to the press is not necessarily Humiliation, depending on the context.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    turbotubbs said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    Albeit better than shooting them, as was the customary practice in 1941.
    Here is an entIrely serious question. As Russia has not formally declared war and considers what it is doing to be a police action, and the Ukrainians are fighting a defensive action without ever having formally declared war either, are the combatants covered by the Geneva Convention?

    As I am not a lawyer, I'm asking because I want to know the answer.

    I wondered if the Falklands War at least (where war was never formally declared) should provide precedent, but in that case Britain had a UN Resolution covering its actions, which Ukraine does not. So I'm not sure it does.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,855
    BigRich said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.


    Is it? I'm no legal expert and could well be wrong, but I thought that it was against the Geneva Convention to Humiliate them, (and a few other things) but I don't think presenting them to the press is not necessarily Humiliation, depending on the context.
    whatever the legalities the bigger picture is how it is seen in Russia by ordinary Russians - It can only turn them against the west
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions.
    Genuine LOL.
    That is so funny
    I wonder if he'd consider going into stand up with me?

    We could come on and I would say something bland and uncontroversial like 'water is wet.'

    Then he could shout 'No! Boris has declared water is dry! Therefore it is the driest thing ever!'

    And I could reply, 'but it's still wet...'

    We would have to spend time with each other, which we haven't done for years, but we could make a fortune very fast.
    Do you remember History Today with Rob Newman and David Baddiel?
    A bit before my time of being interested, but that sort of idea.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,694
    ydoethur said:

    turbotubbs said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    Albeit better than shooting them, as was the customary practice in 1941.
    Here is an entIrely serious question. As Russia has not formally declared war and considers what it is doing to be a police action, and the Ukrainians are fighting a defensive action without ever having formally declared war either, are the combatants covered by the Geneva Convention?

    As I am not a lawyer, I'm asking because I want to know the answer.

    I wondered if the Falklands War at least (where war was never formally declared) should provide precedent, but in that case Britain had a UN Resolution covering its actions, which Ukraine does not. So I'm not sure it does.
    Do you mean that the UN resolution in the Falklands War meant we had to behave ourselves? And that without such a resolution potentially Ukraine isn’t under the same obligation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,938
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    turbotubbs said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.

    Albeit better than shooting them, as was the customary practice in 1941.
    Here is an entIrely serious question. As Russia has not formally declared war and considers what it is doing to be a police action, and the Ukrainians are fighting a defensive action without ever having formally declared war either, are the combatants covered by the Geneva Convention?

    As I am not a lawyer, I'm asking because I want to know the answer.

    I wondered if the Falklands War at least (where war was never formally declared) should provide precedent, but in that case Britain had a UN Resolution covering its actions, which Ukraine does not. So I'm not sure it does.
    Do you mean that the UN resolution in the Falklands War meant we had to behave ourselves? And that without such a resolution potentially Ukraine isn’t under the same obligation?
    That's what I'm asking, yes. Not what I mean, because I don't know the answer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    First. Someone at the gathering reckoned laying Melenchon is a safe bet.

    That's the great thing about betting - it is all based on punters having different views.
    Like History, except apparently in the minds of certain Tory supporters.
    You are entitled to your own views, not your own facts. History at its best is empirical and factual above all
    The irony of that post, Hyufd, is that my view is based on the facts, and yours is based on your political opinions.
    No, your view is based on your opinions. Too many history departments have been infected with Marxist interpretations of history since the 1960s rather than traditional empirical fact based history.

    If this Conservative government is doing conservative things in education all to the good, that is what it won a majority for in 2019. If you want to change things you will need to elect a Labour led government as you failed to do in 2019
    But 55% did not vote for the Tories - hardly a democratic mandate
    Over 50% have never voted for any governing party since WW2.

    The only elected government which has got over 50% was the Tory-LD coalition government of 2010-2015, we have FPTP not PR. As long as you win a majority of seats in the Commons you have a mandate
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    state_go_away said:

    For all those who bang on about Putin will get ousted or even get refused when ordering a nuclear attack , just think if that would happen on the Uk side - If Boris ordered a nuclear strike it woudl be obeyed (in fact who knows if he has already in the standing orders in the subs) . People need to get real and realise the world is at a brink and needs to deescalate this not inflame anymore, The BBC showing footage of downing Russian helicoptors is not helping

    Why do you want to censor our media and play into Putin hands

    We have to stand strong with Ukraine and all NATO states and not role over to a war criminal

    I am very pleased with the measures the UK - EU - US - NATO are taking and it is time we came in behind them all

    Each has had an important input to this crisis and I hope that finally this will bring us all together in unity

    It is also time to stop UK - good EU - bad and vice versa as it is simply divisive and plays into Putin's agenda
    well I fundamentally disagree- Please get it into your heads (those that want to pursue this war) that you can not always win or good will always win. This is a situation where if Russia loses the world is on the brink - It needs (and Putin because he will not get toppled) a face saver . one can be done ,always one can be done but you have to try. All wars end at some point , the earlier the better especially in this case for EVERYONE
    You do not win by rolling over to a bully

    He has to be challenged and made to realise he cannot succeed in his war and the crimes he is committing

    Russia cannot win this and the best hope is for an internal coup

    Appeasement does not work
    soundbite stuff and not the real reality of a nuclear filled Russia
    According to you, the real reality of nuclear filled Russia is letting them invade any neighbor and commit whatever war crimes they like.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,122
    state_go_away said:

    BigRich said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ukrainians present Russian prisoners of war to the press.

    NY Times


    Misstep by Ukr. This is against Geneva I think? Although bit of a grey area.


    Is it? I'm no legal expert and could well be wrong, but I thought that it was against the Geneva Convention to Humiliate them, (and a few other things) but I don't think presenting them to the press is not necessarily Humiliation, depending on the context.
    whatever the legalities the bigger picture is how it is seen in Russia by ordinary Russians - It can only turn them against the west
    This is where we might wonder if some of the Russia boycotts are a mite counter-productive. Where are Russians to get news other from the state media? Not Facebook anymore. Activists might follow the BBC's instructions for Tor but hardly the babushka on the St Petersburg omnibus.
This discussion has been closed.