I wonder if what looks ever more like a huge military, economic, and strategic disaster for Russia is a product of a category error by Putin, who failed to appreciate what type of Russian military action he was starting. (A thread – apologies for the length.)
Reads as quite convincing. However, if true, that is a spectacular failure of statecraft. Suggests they really did believe their own propaganda. Didn't they have innumerable contacts and assets in Ukraine? Or were they ignored/unable to give an honest view? If so, then the portents aren't good. Means the Kremlin is totally isolated and out of touch with what was happening in its own backyard. Which doesn't augur well for them interpreting accurately what the West may do next.
It's an event I hate and I don't recall ever betting on it, but don't you just lay the favorites?
Never move to Sweden Peter. It’s the Number One tv event of the year. Almost shibboleth status. I’ve got my glitterpants and lördagsmys ready to go. Hope Vladimir is understanding and puts off his invasion until after Torino.
Not much likelihood of me moving there, Stuart, but number one son has just been offered a job there. He's thinking about it.
Since he very much likes music and plays a bit himself I will pass on your helpful information. I imagine it will make his mind up for him.
Nej tack.
I’d strongly recommend accepting the job offer. Sweden is a fantastic environment to work in, and especially if he has or plans to have children. Swedish society is strongly biased in favour of children and young adults. We go out of our way to nurture the next generations.
Working life is a pleasure. Zero presenteeism. Folk turn up to work early, work conscientiously, and then go home surprisingly early! And the holidays are tremendous. And pensions.
No, politics has slowed down, thank goodness. The EU has not found a cause to rally around, the Russian stockmarket is in a bull phase, and the Union of Concerned Scientists have taken the Domesday Clock back to hours from midnight. Everything is calm and stable for once.
'morning everyone; off thread, but I just wanted to report that, in a professional capacity and in I think a slightly baffled and weary spirit of 'can you find someone who can deal with this?', I have just been forwarded an email from Jackie Weaver. That is all.
Edit: oh, I also appear to now have her mobile number. It's probably a sadder reflection on my life than anything else that she is the most famous person for whom I have a direct contact.
It's an event I hate and I don't recall ever betting on it, but don't you just lay the favorites?
Never move to Sweden Peter. It’s the Number One tv event of the year. Almost shibboleth status. I’ve got my glitterpants and lördagsmys ready to go. Hope Vladimir is understanding and puts off his invasion until after Torino.
Not much likelihood of me moving there, Stuart, but number one son has just been offered a job there. He's thinking about it.
Since he very much likes music and plays a bit himself I will pass on your helpful information. I imagine it will make his mind up for him.
Nej tack.
I’d strongly recommend accepting the job offer. Sweden is a fantastic environment to work in, and especially if he has or plans to have children. Swedish society is strongly biased in favour of children and young adults. We go out of our way to nurture the next generations.
Working life is a pleasure. Zero presenteeism. Folk turn up to work early, work conscientiously, and then go home surprisingly early! And the holidays are tremendous. And pensions.
Seriously, Stuart, I love the place and think he would be crackers to turn the job down. He is for some reason hesitant but his partner is in favor and I am quietly encouraging him.
I won't tell him what you said about Eurovision though. It won't help.
On Mazespin, how will the world cope without him? There must be some other drivers out there backed with money who Haas could tap up. Drivers who aren't as thoroughly repellent as him.
It flags up how many get a drive (at expense of others) because of the money they bring to team. Which is all a bit yuk.
'morning everyone; off thread, but I just wanted to report that, in a professional capacity and in I think a slightly baffled and weary spirit of 'can you find someone who can deal with this?', I have just been forwarded an email from Jackie Weaver. That is all.
A few years back we went to a pub gig in Skipton. The chap playing had a song titled "The Russians are Coming". I wonder if he's available for Eurovision?
The non runners went from zero to decimating my carefully cultivated betting slip. Probably because Rains stopped, but I suspect the going stick everywhere to go up to “on softer side of soft”. I think I just about still got a slip that’s more than blindly sticking a pin in a card.
Newbury - 13:50 - Farinet Likes the distance, likes soft, useful each way bet.
Kelso - 14:05 - Elvis Mail Will lick the going stick but not used to these extra few furlongs. But I’ve looked over the competition and there is more inherent vice there than an Oligarch’s mansion. Uh huh huh.
Doncaster - 14:20 - Gazette Bourgeoise Good each way bet on current form. Distance isn’t a problem.
Kelso - 15:15 - Saint D'oroux Likes ground, distance, won last time out a month ago on this course. 6yr old whose time has come. A rare MoonRabbit NAP!
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
Joan is a boy's name in Catalonia.
Indeed, and I recently wrote a short story for a writing group which involved two British ladies, Carol and Jean and, after I'd sent if off, realised I called a minor French male character Jean.
[Translated] The law on punishment for discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and calls to prevent their use has been adopted, it must be implemented, Peskov said: http://go.tass.ru/jZLkx
I wonder if what looks ever more like a huge military, economic, and strategic disaster for Russia is a product of a category error by Putin, who failed to appreciate what type of Russian military action he was starting. (A thread – apologies for the length.)
Reads as quite convincing. However, if true, that is a spectacular failure of statecraft. Suggests they really did believe their own propaganda. Didn't they have innumerable contacts and assets in Ukraine? Or were they ignored/unable to give an honest view? If so, then the portents aren't good. Means the Kremlin is totally isolated and out of touch with what was happening in its own backyard. Which doesn't augur well for them interpreting accurately what the West may do next.
It is not only our own competence that we overestimate, but that of our opponents as well.
Autocratic regimes can be simultaneously paranoid about threats, but also complacent of their strengths.
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
A friend registering their son’s birth in France was horrified to discover they had spelled “John” “Jean”…….
One of our little 'un's middle name has a non-Latin character in it. A dotted capital I.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
It's all well and good laughing at Mazepin and F1 pay drivers but they are still a class above what it used to be like.
I wish I had been around more for the very late 80's/early 90's and the days of pre-qualifying, when the F1 grid was huge but half the teams were absolute no-hoper basket cases.
Heck, even the days of Riccardo "Tosser" Rosset are a long time ago now.
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
A friend registering their son’s birth in France was horrified to discover they had spelled “John” “Jean”…….
One of our little 'un's middle name has a non-Latin character in it. A dotted capital I.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
My real first name is very, very unusual. Rarely, indeed only once, interpreted as female, but frequently as a surname. I'm used to it, and there's usually a resigned smile and a chuckle, but I did get cross when someone in a hospital argued with me about it.
It's an event I hate and I don't recall ever betting on it, but don't you just lay the favorites?
Never move to Sweden Peter. It’s the Number One tv event of the year. Almost shibboleth status. I’ve got my glitterpants and lördagsmys ready to go. Hope Vladimir is understanding and puts off his invasion until after Torino.
Not much likelihood of me moving there, Stuart, but number one son has just been offered a job there. He's thinking about it.
Since he very much likes music and plays a bit himself I will pass on your helpful information. I imagine it will make his mind up for him.
Nej tack.
I’d strongly recommend accepting the job offer. Sweden is a fantastic environment to work in, and especially if he has or plans to have children. Swedish society is strongly biased in favour of children and young adults. We go out of our way to nurture the next generations.
Working life is a pleasure. Zero presenteeism. Folk turn up to work early, work conscientiously, and then go home surprisingly early! And the holidays are tremendous. And pensions.
Seriously, Stuart, I love the place and think he would be crackers to turn the job down. He is for some reason hesitant but his partner is in favor and I am quietly encouraging him.
I won't tell him what you said about Eurovision though. It won't help.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed. I can also say that Swedish is the second easiest language I’ve ever attempted. Adult immigrants almost never master the sing-song pronunciation, but the general structure of the language is pretty simple. An awful lot of the vocabulary has very obvious cognates for English and Scots speakers.
A country that votes 73% for a Jewish comedian doesn't strike me as one on the verge of nationalist uproar. The war will have hardened attitudes I'm sure but the key thing is the Ukrainians know they need western goodwill and that kind of thing is toxic to us. The most scary measures they've introduced appear to be related to the official status of the Russian language.
The Ukrainians would be doing a deal with a gun to their head and they would need to trust us that sanctions would remain on Russia (i.e their frozen foreign exchange reserves) until they pay reparations to Ukraine.
Also look at the bigger picture. Moldova now has a very impressive lady president educated at Harvard and pro western. Belarus would have had another were in not for fraud and Putin sending in the troops. If you think these countries are still dominated by soviet era style figures you've not bee paying attention.
On the musical theme, I have been inspired to create a playlist for times of nuclear angst. Mostly eighties as that is my era, but a few others. Further suggestions welcome.
The video is charming, but the lyrics are really quite dark...
I wanted to walk through the empty streets And feel something constant under my feet But all the news reports recommended that I stay indoors Because the air outside will make Our cells divide at an alarming rate Until our shells simply cannot hold all our insides in And that's when we'll explode And it won't be a pretty sight
And we'll become Silhouettes when our bodies finally go
"I don't think that can or will happen. I know I knock politicians an lot but I would be pretty certain that most of the Western leaders share exactly those same frustrations. They would love to send troops in to help, all the more so having seen how poorly the Russians have performed. But they are also realists and know that the danger is so great from Russia's nuclear threat that they just can't risk it. I doubt reasonable person would not be intensely frustrated and angry at being in that position.
So I reckon they will understand perfectly well why Zelensky is so angry and forgive him any loss of control."
I understand all this. But if Putin were to attack Poland Western leaders would have to send troops and the threat from Russia's nuclear weapons would be just as great. We are drawing a line and I understand why. But the nuclear threat does not become magically less if Putin sends tanks into a NATO country.
Indeed if Putin is successful NATO will be on the borders of his country even more than it is now. If one takes seriously what he said in his recent speech - and I do - then he will eventually attack those other lands which were historically under Russia's control.
So it feels to me as if we are simply postponing a confrontation not avoiding it. I hope we use this additional time wisely.
[Translated] The law on punishment for discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and calls to prevent their use has been adopted, it must be implemented, Peskov said: http://go.tass.ru/jZLkx
A country that votes 73% for a Jewish comedian doesn't strike me as one on the verge of nationalist uproar. The war will have hardened attitudes I'm sure but the key thing is the Ukrainians know they need western goodwill and that kind of thing is toxic to us. The most scary measures they've introduced appear to be related to the official status of the Russian language.
The Ukrainians would be doing a deal with a gun to their head and they would need to trust us that sanctions would remain on Russia (i.e their frozen foreign exchange reserves) until they pay reparations to Ukraine.
Also look at the bigger picture. Moldova now has a very impressive lady president educated at Harvard and pro western. Belarus would have had another were in not for fraud and Putin sending in the troops. If you think these countries are still dominated by soviet era style figures you've not bee paying attention.
The Belarus domino falling may well be the first consequence of the Russian army overstretching itself. Be terrible if an insurgency there were to start being equipped with NLAWs and Javelins too....
It's an event I hate and I don't recall ever betting on it, but don't you just lay the favorites?
Never move to Sweden Peter. It’s the Number One tv event of the year. Almost shibboleth status. I’ve got my glitterpants and lördagsmys ready to go. Hope Vladimir is understanding and puts off his invasion until after Torino.
Not much likelihood of me moving there, Stuart, but number one son has just been offered a job there. He's thinking about it.
Since he very much likes music and plays a bit himself I will pass on your helpful information. I imagine it will make his mind up for him.
Nej tack.
I’d strongly recommend accepting the job offer. Sweden is a fantastic environment to work in, and especially if he has or plans to have children. Swedish society is strongly biased in favour of children and young adults. We go out of our way to nurture the next generations.
Working life is a pleasure. Zero presenteeism. Folk turn up to work early, work conscientiously, and then go home surprisingly early! And the holidays are tremendous. And pensions.
Seriously, Stuart, I love the place and think he would be crackers to turn the job down. He is for some reason hesitant but his partner is in favor and I am quietly encouraging him.
I won't tell him what you said about Eurovision though. It won't help.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed. I can also say that Swedish is the second easiest language I’ve ever attempted. Adult immigrants almost never master the sing-song pronunciation, but the general structure of the language is pretty simple. An awful lot of the vocabulary has very obvious cognates for English and Scots speakers.
Thanks Stuart. I'll let you know how it goes.
I know what you mean about the language. Those of us fluent in German and Cockney get by easily enough in Sweden, as you would no doubt appreciate.
Savanta ComRes have finally published their detailed tables (how they are not kicked out of the BPC for persistent breach of the rules escapes me).
It transpires that it was a fantastic poll for Labour, especially Scottish Labour.
England:
Lab 45% Con 38% LD 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Scotland:
SNP 44% Lab 28% Con 17% LD 10% Grn 2% Ref -
Wales:
Lab 42% Con 23% PC 16% LD 10% Ref 5% Grn 3%
(Savanta ComRes; 25-29 February; 2,208)
But, rather oddly, if you pump those Scottish numbers into Baxter, it is not Scottish Labour who are the big winners, but rather the Tories and Lib Dems who lose big time:
SNP 56 seats (+8) Lab 1 seat (nc) Con 0 seats (-6) LD 0 seats (-2)
(New boundaries: only 57 seats.)
If accurate (it's a subsample) this is presumably tactical unwind. What that does is put Labour back in contention for a chunk of seats, 2017 style, but further advance is needed to achieve that.
Indeed. You need to go second before you can think about first place. Doesn't make a Westminster Labour government imminent, mind.
A second place result for Scottish Labour would be a tremendous event for them, retaking their rightful place as the prime Unionist party. It would really cheer up their dejected troops.
It only takes a modest extra swing from those figures for SNP seats to start to tumble. And as we know, UNS never happens in reality.
[Translated] The law on punishment for discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and calls to prevent their use has been adopted, it must be implemented, Peskov said: http://go.tass.ru/jZLkx
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
AIUI, tanks etc can easily move across ground which is frozen hard. However, once it thaws they're stuck. And of course visibility in snowstorms is dreadful. But IANAE!
"I don't think that can or will happen. I know I knock politicians an lot but I would be pretty certain that most of the Western leaders share exactly those same frustrations. They would love to send troops in to help, all the more so having seen how poorly the Russians have performed. But they are also realists and know that the danger is so great from Russia's nuclear threat that they just can't risk it. I doubt reasonable person would not be intensely frustrated and angry at being in that position.
So I reckon they will understand perfectly well why Zelensky is so angry and forgive him any loss of control."
I understand all this. But if Putin were to attack Poland Western leaders would have to send troops and the threat from Russia's nuclear weapons would be just as great. We are drawing a line and I understand why. But the nuclear threat does not become magically less if Putin sends tanks into a NATO country.
Indeed if Putin is successful NATO will be on the borders of his country even more than it is now. If one takes seriously what he said in his recent speech - and I do - then he will eventually attack those other lands which were historically under Russia's control.
So it feels to me as if we are simply postponing a confrontation not avoiding it. I hope we use this additional time wisely.
I think we postponing while also hoping that the economic sanctions will be sufficient enough to render Russia unable to attack any further.
Whether it's enough and whether it results in Putin going nuclear earlier on a random pretext is impossible however to guess - all we can say is that we are no longer dealing with someone who is completely rational...
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
If mud was causing some issues for the Russians wouldn’t a freeze help them .
OTOH, not great weather to be sleeping in a tank.
If I were going to launch an invasion of Ukraine, I would probably try to do it in mid-late April. The haste with which this invasion is being launched puzzles me. It can't be because Putin feared the west getting its act together, because he didn't expect them to do so, and I think the only thing that has brought the west together is the invasion - the mere threat doesn't appear to have been enough (though doubtless there were all sorts of conversations behind the scenes which we don't know about*). Which is why I wonder whether Putin is even iller than we think and sees his remaining time left on earth in months rather than years.
*Ideally, every post about the west's actions on Ukraine ought to have this sentence implicit.
'morning everyone; off thread, but I just wanted to report that, in a professional capacity and in I think a slightly baffled and weary spirit of 'can you find someone who can deal with this?', I have just been forwarded an email from Jackie Weaver. That is all.
Edit: oh, I also appear to now have her mobile number. It's probably a sadder reflection on my life than anything else that she is the most famous person for whom I have a direct contact.
I must be sadder than you. I had to google Jackie Weaver!
Keats also visited the Lakes and in a letter to his brother he wrote about his visit to Ghyll Force, a waterfall near Ambleside - "What astonishes me more than anything is the tone, the coloring, the slate, the stone, the moss, the rockweed; or, if I may so say, the intellect, the countenance of such places. The space, the magnitude of mountains and waterfalls are well imagined before one sees them; but this countenance or intellectual tone must surpass every imagination and defy any remembrance. I shall learn poetry here and shall henceforth write, more than ever, for the abstract endeavour of being able to add a mite to that mass of beauty which is harvested from these grand materials, by the finest spirits, and put into ethereal existence for the relish of one’s fellows. I cannot think with Hazlitt that these scenes make man appear little. I never forgot my stature so completely; I live in the eye, and my imagination, surpassed, is at rest."
I love that last line. "I live in the eye, and my imagination, surpassed is at rest."
Isn't that what the beauty of nature does for you?
PS Please feel free to send this post to Pseuds Corner.
On the musical theme, I have been inspired to create a playlist for times of nuclear angst. Mostly eighties as that is my era, but a few others. Further suggestions welcome.
The video is charming, but the lyrics are really quite dark...
I wanted to walk through the empty streets And feel something constant under my feet But all the news reports recommended that I stay indoors Because the air outside will make Our cells divide at an alarming rate Until our shells simply cannot hold all our insides in And that's when we'll explode And it won't be a pretty sight
And we'll become Silhouettes when our bodies finally go
With apologies in case these are already here - I can't make spotify work - but I would add: Tom Hark, by the Seagulls (I mentioned this the other day - I've only just come across the lyrics) The Final Day by Young Marble Giants - really, not one to listen to in an angsty frame of mind. Has been going through my head a lot recently! Every Day is Like Sunday, by Morrissey Two Tribes, by Frankie Goes to Hollywood. This is more like it. Let's face armageddon head on!
'morning everyone; off thread, but I just wanted to report that, in a professional capacity and in I think a slightly baffled and weary spirit of 'can you find someone who can deal with this?', I have just been forwarded an email from Jackie Weaver. That is all.
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
A friend registering their son’s birth in France was horrified to discover they had spelled “John” “Jean”…….
One of our little 'un's middle name has a non-Latin character in it. A dotted capital I.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
My real first name is very, very unusual. Rarely, indeed only once, interpreted as female, but frequently as a surname. I'm used to it, and there's usually a resigned smile and a chuckle, but I did get cross when someone in a hospital argued with me about it.
I have never encountered anyone with the same first name as mine, spelt as it is, as it is usually a surname. I'd be a very rich woman indeed if I had received a £ for every time it or my equally unusual surname was mispronounced, garbled or misspelt.
'morning everyone; off thread, but I just wanted to report that, in a professional capacity and in I think a slightly baffled and weary spirit of 'can you find someone who can deal with this?', I have just been forwarded an email from Jackie Weaver. That is all.
Edit: oh, I also appear to now have her mobile number. It's probably a sadder reflection on my life than anything else that she is the most famous person for whom I have a direct contact.
I must be sadder than you. I had to google Jackie Weaver!
That is probably to be admired rather than pitied!
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
And at the highest level they have unlearned the lessons of Napoleon's march on Moscow.
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
A friend registering their son’s birth in France was horrified to discover they had spelled “John” “Jean”…….
One of our little 'un's middle name has a non-Latin character in it. A dotted capital I.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
My real first name is very, very unusual. Rarely, indeed only once, interpreted as female, but frequently as a surname. I'm used to it, and there's usually a resigned smile and a chuckle, but I did get cross when someone in a hospital argued with me about it.
I have never encountered anyone with the same first name as mine, spelt as it is, as it is usually a surname. I'd be a very rich woman indeed if I had received a £ for every time it or my equally unusual surname was mispronounced, garbled or misspelt.
I used to know a man called Lesley (Les). His parents wanted a girl and had settled on the name - and when the baby came along, simply couldn't think of a mail equivalent they liked as much. A lack of imagination which I find baffling on many levels. Caused him no end of problems.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
As someone else posted a few days ago, it would be bitterly ironic if the Russians were stopped by winter.
It's an event I hate and I don't recall ever betting on it, but don't you just lay the favorites?
Never move to Sweden Peter. It’s the Number One tv event of the year. Almost shibboleth status. I’ve got my glitterpants and lördagsmys ready to go. Hope Vladimir is understanding and puts off his invasion until after Torino.
Not much likelihood of me moving there, Stuart, but number one son has just been offered a job there. He's thinking about it.
Since he very much likes music and plays a bit himself I will pass on your helpful information. I imagine it will make his mind up for him.
Nej tack.
I’d strongly recommend accepting the job offer. Sweden is a fantastic environment to work in, and especially if he has or plans to have children. Swedish society is strongly biased in favour of children and young adults. We go out of our way to nurture the next generations.
Working life is a pleasure. Zero presenteeism. Folk turn up to work early, work conscientiously, and then go home surprisingly early! And the holidays are tremendous. And pensions.
Seriously, Stuart, I love the place and think he would be crackers to turn the job down. He is for some reason hesitant but his partner is in favor and I am quietly encouraging him.
I won't tell him what you said about Eurovision though. It won't help.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed. I can also say that Swedish is the second easiest language I’ve ever attempted. Adult immigrants almost never master the sing-song pronunciation, but the general structure of the language is pretty simple. An awful lot of the vocabulary has very obvious cognates for English and Scots speakers.
Thanks Stuart. I'll let you know how it goes.
I know what you mean about the language. Those of us fluent in German and Cockney get by easily enough in Sweden, as you would no doubt appreciate.
If you’ve got German and/or Dutch you’re halfway there.
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
A friend registering their son’s birth in France was horrified to discover they had spelled “John” “Jean”…….
One of our little 'un's middle name has a non-Latin character in it. A dotted capital I.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
My real first name is very, very unusual. Rarely, indeed only once, interpreted as female, but frequently as a surname. I'm used to it, and there's usually a resigned smile and a chuckle, but I did get cross when someone in a hospital argued with me about it.
I have never encountered anyone with the same first name as mine, spelt as it is, as it is usually a surname. I'd be a very rich woman indeed if I had received a £ for every time it or my equally unusual surname was mispronounced, garbled or misspelt.
Enjoy the lakes -Re names my Uncles (from Walney) were called Hardie and Caton. -both great first names though both originally surnames.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
As someone else posted a few days ago, it would be bitterly ironic if the Russians were stopped by winter.
Maybe Ukraine is part of Russia...
...and Putin is making the classic blunder of making a land invasion into Russia.
Savanta ComRes have finally published their detailed tables (how they are not kicked out of the BPC for persistent breach of the rules escapes me).
It transpires that it was a fantastic poll for Labour, especially Scottish Labour.
England:
Lab 45% Con 38% LD 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Scotland:
SNP 44% Lab 28% Con 17% LD 10% Grn 2% Ref -
Wales:
Lab 42% Con 23% PC 16% LD 10% Ref 5% Grn 3%
(Savanta ComRes; 25-29 February; 2,208)
But, rather oddly, if you pump those Scottish numbers into Baxter, it is not Scottish Labour who are the big winners, but rather the Tories and Lib Dems who lose big time:
SNP 56 seats (+8) Lab 1 seat (nc) Con 0 seats (-6) LD 0 seats (-2)
(New boundaries: only 57 seats.)
If accurate (it's a subsample) this is presumably tactical unwind. What that does is put Labour back in contention for a chunk of seats, 2017 style, but further advance is needed to achieve that.
Indeed. You need to go second before you can think about first place. Doesn't make a Westminster Labour government imminent, mind.
A second place result for Scottish Labour would be a tremendous event for them, retaking their rightful place as the prime Unionist party. It would really cheer up their dejected troops.
It only takes a modest extra swing from those figures for SNP seats to start to tumble. And as we know, UNS never happens in reality.
I believe Anas is making ‘I will be the next FM’ noises again.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Doesn't diesel freeze at -20?
Ah, but cunningly they may have run out. Problem solved!
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Doesn't diesel freeze at -20?
They just fling a bit of kerosene in and you're good down to -40. Probably fucks the seals/injector rails in the long term but the great thing about military vehicles is the consequence of all the abuse is some other twat's problem.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Doesn't diesel freeze at -20?
the great thing about military vehicles is the consequence of all the abuse is some other twat's problem.
I don't think anyone would doubt your experience of abusing military vehicles.
And the combined population of those two cities is only about 1% of the population of Ukraine. Controlling that will be impossible.
I think there is a reason that the Russians have opened up the humanitarian corridor, they what the people do don't what to be Russian subjects to sell deport, or as its sometimes called 'Ethnic Cleansing'
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Savanta ComRes have finally published their detailed tables (how they are not kicked out of the BPC for persistent breach of the rules escapes me).
It transpires that it was a fantastic poll for Labour, especially Scottish Labour.
England:
Lab 45% Con 38% LD 9% Grn 3% Ref 3%
Scotland:
SNP 44% Lab 28% Con 17% LD 10% Grn 2% Ref -
Wales:
Lab 42% Con 23% PC 16% LD 10% Ref 5% Grn 3%
(Savanta ComRes; 25-29 February; 2,208)
But, rather oddly, if you pump those Scottish numbers into Baxter, it is not Scottish Labour who are the big winners, but rather the Tories and Lib Dems who lose big time:
SNP 56 seats (+8) Lab 1 seat (nc) Con 0 seats (-6) LD 0 seats (-2)
(New boundaries: only 57 seats.)
If accurate (it's a subsample) this is presumably tactical unwind. What that does is put Labour back in contention for a chunk of seats, 2017 style, but further advance is needed to achieve that.
Indeed. You need to go second before you can think about first place. Doesn't make a Westminster Labour government imminent, mind.
A second place result for Scottish Labour would be a tremendous event for them, retaking their rightful place as the prime Unionist party. It would really cheer up their dejected troops.
It only takes a modest extra swing from those figures for SNP seats to start to tumble. And as we know, UNS never happens in reality.
I believe Anas is making ‘I will be the next FM’ noises again.
The punters say No.
Anas Sarwar is currently 16/1 to be Next First Minister. The same as Douglas Ross.
Admittedly that is shorter than the 18/1 last year.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Considering Putin believes that Ukraine is part of Russia, you think he'd heed the widely repeated 'Never invade Russia during the winter' mantra. I pity the conscripts. No food for almost a week, no shelter to sleep under, no way to retreat, and rapidly diminishing fuel.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Russian soldiers are also victims of the war. Doubly so as they are not even fighting for a just cause.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Doesn't diesel freeze at -20?
the great thing about military vehicles is the consequence of all the abuse is some other twat's problem.
I don't think anyone would doubt your experience of abusing military vehicles.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Doesn't diesel freeze at -20?
When I was knee high to a grasshopper, my dad had an urgent job on in which he needed a load of diggers/dumpers/kit. Sadly it had snowed heavily overnight, so we went out before dawn to dig them out (using diggers) and get them ready for the men. One wouldn't start, so he made me light a little fire under the sump to (I think) desludgify the sump oil and warm up the engine.
I've still no idea if that was real thing, whether he was joshing with me, or he wanted to keep me warm and beside a fire....
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
They might yet be the lucky ones. It’s quicker than frostbite and exposure.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Russian soldiers are also victims of the war. Doubly so as they are not even fighting for a just cause.
It is much easier to defend your country from vile invaders than it is to invade a country you have been taught to consider brothers. Russian morale must be rock-bottom. Many of them are only fighting because the alternative is imprisonment or worse.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Russian soldiers are also victims of the war. Doubly so as they are not even fighting for a just cause.
It is much easier to defend your country from vile invaders than it is to invade a country you have been taught to consider brothers. Russian morale must be rock-bottom. Many of them are only fighting because the alternative is imprisonment or worse.
And because they went to Ukraine on a false prospectus, and also some of them having unwittingly signed away their right to refuse.
#Ukraine: From images of the crash site in #Chernihiv, we are able to determine that the plane shot down was a Sukhoi Su-34 "Fullback", a modern Russian fighter-bomber.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Russian soldiers are also victims of the war. Doubly so as they are not even fighting for a just cause.
It is much easier to defend your country from vile invaders than it is to invade a country you have been taught to consider brothers. Russian morale must be rock-bottom. Many of them are only fighting because the alternative is imprisonment or worse.
Rather than downplay casualties I'd think the Russians would need to emphasise them - revenge for one's comrades, that sort of thing. It makes more sense than 'Kill Ukraine to save it'.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Russian soldiers are also victims of the war. Doubly so as they are not even fighting for a just cause.
It is much easier to defend your country from vile invaders than it is to invade a country you have been taught to consider brothers. Russian morale must be rock-bottom. Many of them are only fighting because the alternative is imprisonment or worse.
Rather than downplay casualties I'd think the Russians would need to emphasise them - revenge for one's comrades, that sort of thing. It makes more sense than 'Kill Ukraine to save it'.
But that would require the boss acknowledging this is a war of aggression they're waging.
And the combined population of those two cities is only about 1% of the population of Ukraine. Controlling that will be impossible.
I imagine that the plan for the occupation is to terrorise the populace until they're all cowed into submission or have fled (indeed, Putin probably wants to depopulate Ukraine, reducing the remaining base of people available to man and support a resistance, and attempting to destabilise the rest of Europe by flooding it with penniless refugees.) The conscript element of the Russian army may be of limited value for this purpose but the Russian security forces also contain many tens, perhaps hundreds, of thousands of absolute shits.
Ukraine is enormous and it might not work, but Putin and his legions of properly evil monsters, from the Chechens downwards, will give it a good go. It'll be a proper, SS-level, unrestrained bloodbath.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
And at the highest level they have unlearned the lessons of Napoleon's march on Moscow.
The pilot on the right looks well a bit fat for a serving military person?
There are very lax fitness standards in Russian forces for the same reason there are now none in the British forces. If they enforced them they'd lose a lot of older people with irreplaceable experience.
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 1h Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
Out of fuel, with dead batteries, it is going to be bloody cold in that long convoy.... Once frozen, that mud they are in will act like concrete.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
It is simple things like fresh water, food and shelter that the Russians are going to really struggle with. At -20 the steppe is harsh and unforgiving of even minor errors of judgment. Expect growing numbers of dead and hospitalisations due to exposure. Malnutrition, weakness and disease inevitably follow. We are about to witness how well planned this invasion is. The signs thus far are that the Russians have failed in areas like basic training.
Doesn't diesel freeze at -20?
When I was knee high to a grasshopper, my dad had an urgent job on in which he needed a load of diggers/dumpers/kit. Sadly it had snowed heavily overnight, so we went out before dawn to dig them out (using diggers) and get them ready for the men. One wouldn't start, so he made me light a little fire under the sump to (I think) desludgify the sump oil and warm up the engine.
I've still no idea if that was real thing, whether he was joshing with me, or he wanted to keep me warm and beside a fire....
I'm sure I read that there was a lot of that sort of thing required on the Eastern Front in WWII.
I knew a guy called Ieuan whom people occasionally called Joan.
Not often though!
A friend registering their son’s birth in France was horrified to discover they had spelled “John” “Jean”…….
One of our little 'un's middle name has a non-Latin character in it. A dotted capital I.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
My real first name is very, very unusual. Rarely, indeed only once, interpreted as female, but frequently as a surname. I'm used to it, and there's usually a resigned smile and a chuckle, but I did get cross when someone in a hospital argued with me about it.
I have never encountered anyone with the same first name as mine, spelt as it is, as it is usually a surname. I'd be a very rich woman indeed if I had received a £ for every time it or my equally unusual surname was mispronounced, garbled or misspelt.
The only person I've found in recent times with mine was someone who made the 'headlines' .... well, locally, because he fell off some high-level power lines while working on them without adequate safety harness.
And the combined population of those two cities is only about 1% of the population of Ukraine. Controlling that will be impossible.
I imagine that the plan for the occupation is to terrorise the populace until they're all cowed into submission or have fled (indeed, Putin probably wants to depopulate Ukraine, reducing the remaining base of people available to man and support a resistance, and attempting to destabilise the rest of Europe by flooding it with penniless refugees.) The conscript element of the Russian army may be of limited value for this purpose but the Russian security forces also contain many tens, perhaps hundreds, of thousands of absolute shits.
Ukraine is enormous and it might not work, but Putin and his legions of properly evil monsters, from the Chechens downwards, will give it a good go. It'll be a proper, SS-level, unrestrained bloodbath.
If Putin wants millions of refugees in Europe to create chaos then Europe/the world will create financial chaos in Russia. The idiot (or genius according to Trump) doesn't seem to understand this basic fact.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
They might yet be the lucky ones. It’s quicker than frostbite and exposure.
Indeed. In a choice between instant oblivion and days or weeks of terminal decline, I’d always choose the former.
@idreesali114 March 5 (Reuters) - Russia's flagship carrier Aeroflot will stop all flights abroad with the exception of those to Belarus from March 8, the TASS news agency quoted the company as saying on Saturday.
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Russian soldiers are also victims of the war. Doubly so as they are not even fighting for a just cause.
It is much easier to defend your country from vile invaders than it is to invade a country you have been taught to consider brothers. Russian morale must be rock-bottom. Many of them are only fighting because the alternative is imprisonment or worse.
Rather than downplay casualties I'd think the Russians would need to emphasise them - revenge for one's comrades, that sort of thing. It makes more sense than 'Kill Ukraine to save it'.
Nope. They are the great unspoken. Don't dwell on casualties. Bad for morale.
@idreesali114 March 5 (Reuters) - Russia's flagship carrier Aeroflot will stop all flights abroad with the exception of those to Belarus from March 8, the TASS news agency quoted the company as saying on Saturday.
Comments
However, if true, that is a spectacular failure of statecraft. Suggests they really did believe their own propaganda.
Didn't they have innumerable contacts and assets in Ukraine? Or were they ignored/unable to give an honest view? If so, then the portents aren't good.
Means the Kremlin is totally isolated and out of touch with what was happening in its own backyard.
Which doesn't augur well for them interpreting accurately what the West may do next.
Or is that an urban myth?
Working life is a pleasure. Zero presenteeism. Folk turn up to work early, work conscientiously, and then go home surprisingly early! And the holidays are tremendous. And pensions.
Tracey Grundy was his name.
off thread, but I just wanted to report that, in a professional capacity and in I think a slightly baffled and weary spirit of 'can you find someone who can deal with this?', I have just been forwarded an email from Jackie Weaver.
That is all.
Edit: oh, I also appear to now have her mobile number.
It's probably a sadder reflection on my life than anything else that she is the most famous person for whom I have a direct contact.
I won't tell him what you said about Eurovision though. It won't help.
Not often though!
The non runners went from zero to decimating my carefully cultivated betting slip. Probably because Rains stopped, but I suspect the going stick everywhere to go up to “on softer side of soft”. I think I just about still got a slip that’s more than blindly sticking a pin in a card.
Newbury - 13:50 - Farinet
Likes the distance, likes soft, useful each way bet.
Kelso - 14:05 - Elvis Mail
Will lick the going stick but not used to these extra few furlongs. But I’ve looked over the competition and there is more inherent vice there than an Oligarch’s mansion. Uh huh huh.
Doncaster - 14:20 - Gazette Bourgeoise
Good each way bet on current form. Distance isn’t a problem.
Kelso - 15:15 - Saint D'oroux
Likes ground, distance, won last time out a month ago on this course. 6yr old whose time has come. A rare MoonRabbit NAP!
Whatever you are on, have a great weekend. 🙋♀️
Sandy!
[Translated] The law on punishment for discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and calls to prevent their use has been adopted, it must be implemented, Peskov said:
http://go.tass.ru/jZLkx
https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1500071350937042944
Autocratic regimes can be simultaneously paranoid about threats, but also complacent of their strengths.
That amused the registrar, but she put it on the birth certificate. We sometimes wonder if it'll ever cause him any problems later in life when people search for a capital I, not realising about the dot ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dotted_and_dotless_I
I wish I had been around more for the very late 80's/early 90's and the days of pre-qualifying, when the F1 grid was huge but half the teams were absolute no-hoper basket cases.
Heck, even the days of Riccardo "Tosser" Rosset are a long time ago now.
A country that votes 73% for a Jewish comedian doesn't strike me as one on the verge of nationalist uproar. The war will have hardened attitudes I'm sure but the key thing is the Ukrainians know they need western goodwill and that kind of thing is toxic to us. The most scary measures they've introduced appear to be related to the official status of the Russian language.
The Ukrainians would be doing a deal with a gun to their head and they would need to trust us that sanctions would remain on Russia (i.e their frozen foreign exchange reserves) until they pay reparations to Ukraine.
Also look at the bigger picture. Moldova now has a very impressive lady president educated at Harvard and pro western. Belarus would have had another were in not for fraud and Putin sending in the troops. If you think these countries are still dominated by soviet era style figures you've not bee paying attention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rKC7ElkTUQ
The video is charming, but the lyrics are really quite dark...
"I don't think that can or will happen. I know I knock politicians an lot but I would be pretty certain that most of the Western leaders share exactly those same frustrations. They would love to send troops in to help, all the more so having seen how poorly the Russians have performed. But they are also realists and know that the danger is so great from Russia's nuclear threat that they just can't risk it. I doubt reasonable person would not be intensely frustrated and angry at being in that position.
So I reckon they will understand perfectly well why Zelensky is so angry and forgive him any loss of control."
I understand all this. But if Putin were to attack Poland Western leaders would have to send troops and the threat from Russia's nuclear weapons would be just as great. We are drawing a line and I understand why. But the nuclear threat does not become magically less if Putin sends tanks into a NATO country.
Indeed if Putin is successful NATO will be on the borders of his country even more than it is now. If one takes seriously what he said in his recent speech - and I do - then he will eventually attack those other lands which were historically under Russia's control.
So it feels to me as if we are simply postponing a confrontation not avoiding it. I hope we use this additional time wisely.
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
·
1h
Temperatures are to drop to -20 degrees in Ukraine.
Very cold temperatures will spread across western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland.
The worst cold is forecast to overspread Ukraine and western Russia from the mid-next week into the weekend.
How will it impact the war?
I know what you mean about the language. Those of us fluent in German and Cockney get by easily enough in Sweden, as you would no doubt appreciate.
It only takes a modest extra swing from those figures for SNP seats to start to tumble. And as we know, UNS never happens in reality.
Even the Ukrainian farmers are going to find it tough to move them.
And of course visibility in snowstorms is dreadful.
But IANAE!
Whether it's enough and whether it results in Putin going nuclear earlier on a random pretext is impossible however to guess - all we can say is that we are no longer dealing with someone who is completely rational...
If I were going to launch an invasion of Ukraine, I would probably try to do it in mid-late April. The haste with which this invasion is being launched puzzles me. It can't be because Putin feared the west getting its act together, because he didn't expect them to do so, and I think the only thing that has brought the west together is the invasion - the mere threat doesn't appear to have been enough (though doubtless there were all sorts of conversations behind the scenes which we don't know about*).
Which is why I wonder whether Putin is even iller than we think and sees his remaining time left on earth in months rather than years.
*Ideally, every post about the west's actions on Ukraine ought to have this sentence implicit.
My husband is giving a talk today to the local history society about Turner's visits here. He (Turner) sketched the local castle and church (where the talk will be held) and these sketches are in his notebooks held by the Tate. Just pencil drawings, they can be viewed here - https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/turner-millom-castle-and-holy-trinity-church-from-the-east-d08978.
Keats also visited the Lakes and in a letter to his brother he wrote about his visit to Ghyll Force, a waterfall near Ambleside -
"What astonishes me more than anything is the tone, the coloring, the slate, the stone, the moss, the rockweed; or, if I may so say, the intellect, the countenance of such places. The space, the magnitude of mountains and waterfalls are well imagined before one sees them; but this countenance or intellectual tone must surpass every imagination and defy any remembrance. I shall learn poetry here and shall henceforth write, more than ever, for the abstract endeavour of being able to add a mite to that mass of beauty which is harvested from these grand materials, by the finest spirits, and put into ethereal existence for the relish of one’s fellows. I cannot think with Hazlitt that these scenes make man appear little. I never forgot my stature so completely; I live in the eye, and my imagination, surpassed, is at rest."
I love that last line. "I live in the eye, and my imagination, surpassed is at rest."
Isn't that what the beauty of nature does for you?
PS Please feel free to send this post to Pseuds Corner.
Tom Hark, by the Seagulls (I mentioned this the other day - I've only just come across the lyrics)
The Final Day by Young Marble Giants - really, not one to listen to in an angsty frame of mind. Has been going through my head a lot recently!
Every Day is Like Sunday, by Morrissey
Two Tribes, by Frankie Goes to Hollywood. This is more like it. Let's face armageddon head on!
https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1499999293045891074
It wouldn't be Saturday without the Stodge Saturday Patent so here are this week's horses with about as much chance as a UK entry at Eurovision:
1.24 Lingfield: SURREY PRINCESS
3.50 Lingfield: ONE NIGHT STAND
4.54 Lingfield: ALJARYAAL
Put a 1 point win patent on those, flush the money down the toilet or, much better, give it to someone who needs it much more than the bookies.
Or better still, the men in grey suits just finish this madness the old fashioned way.
...and Putin is making the classic blunder of making a land invasion into Russia.
(Stolen from Twitter)
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500068210539966464
Sadly I think it might work,
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t75bm7/russian_heli_gets_bushwacked_by_ua_manpad_operator/
I find this very sad. The crew on the helicopter stood absolutely no chance. Yes, they shouldn't be there, but you probably just saw two or three people die.
Yet... yet I want their side to lose.
Anas Sarwar is currently 16/1 to be Next First Minister. The same as Douglas Ross.
Admittedly that is shorter than the 18/1 last year.
I've still no idea if that was real thing, whether he was joshing with me, or he wanted to keep me warm and beside a fire....
The pilot on the right looks well a bit fat for a serving military person?
I'm assuming that most if not all the the Russian plans coming down now are being shot by man portable anti air missiles, like Stinger?
Note tail number of 24.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500074221665505285?
Ukraine is enormous and it might not work, but Putin and his legions of properly evil monsters, from the Chechens downwards, will give it a good go. It'll be a proper, SS-level, unrestrained bloodbath.
March 5 (Reuters) - Russia's flagship carrier Aeroflot will stop all flights abroad with the exception of those to Belarus from March 8, the TASS news agency quoted the company as saying on Saturday.
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1500086815772102660
Putin cannot keep the truth from the population forever.