Watching the triggernometry show on youtube I was heartened to see them raise what must have been thousands of pounds from viewers to support Ukraine. Usually viewers send £2, £5, £10. Today it was £20, £50, £100.
I was chilled by what Russian/Ukrainian comedian Konstantin Kisin was saying. That if the war goes badly Putin will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Watching the triggernometry show on youtube I was heartened to see them raise what must have been thousands of pounds from viewers to support Ukraine. Usually viewers send £2, £5, £10. Today it was £20, £50, £100.
I was chilled by what Russian/Ukrainian comedian Konstantin Kisin was saying. That if the war goes badly Putin will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.
How much of the total EU energy supply comes from Russia?
Is it so much that such a mighty political union is unable to disperse the impact of it sufficiently to survive?
A lot of energy is fungible - a Russian barrel of oil (other than how your refineries are set up) is the same as an American one or a Saudi Arabian one or a Mexican one.
If the EU was to stop buying Russian oil, then it would be competing with the UK for these barrels. If China were to not observe sanctions, then they would buy the Russian barrels. And the EU would buy barrels from whoever the Chinese previously bought them from. The overall supply-demand balance would not shift, but the owners of oil tankers would end up making a bit more as barrels would - on average - be in transit for longer.
Or to put it another way: if the EU were to stop buying Russian oil, the impact would fall equally on all purchasers of non-Russian oil, in the form of increased demand for non-Russian oil.
Natural gas is different. It's mostly piped and on long-term contracts.
If Germany were to stop buying Russian gas, it would need to get it from somewhere else (and the Russians would not be able to sell it elsewhere as they have neither the pipeline or the LNG capacity. The effect would be to move the LNG market into shortage, and would mean that spot LNG cargoes would become very valuable indeed. (This would be extremely good news for Cheniere Energy.)
The impact would not be felt only in Germany, but in any other country that imported large numbers of spot LNG cargoes (notably the UK). We'd all be paying a lot more for gas - I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the $25-30/mmbtu range for landed LNG cargoes.
Macron in a very strong lead at this stage with Le Pen establishing a clear second place after a wobble or two last month though her apparent closeness to Putin may yet come back to haunt her. Pecresse has perhaps turned a corner after some dreadful numbers last week and Mélenchon is starting to pick up after a poor spell.
Macron-Le Pen seems the most likely but I wouldn't rule out a Macron-Pecresse run off if Le Pen suffers from her association with Putin and you can't discount a Macron-Mélenchon run off either. Last time, Le Pen got 21.3% in round one, Fillon got 20% and Mélenchon got 19.6% so it's feasible.
How much of the total EU energy supply comes from Russia?
Is it so much that such a mighty political union is unable to disperse the impact of it sufficiently to survive?
A lot of energy is fungible - a Russian barrel of oil (other than how your refineries are set up) is the same as an American one or a Saudi Arabian one or a Mexican one.
Amazing what you can these days via Amazon Prime....
Perhaps that is the way for the Ukrainians to beat the Russians quickly. To get Amazon Prime to deliver the Javelins and Stingers directly to the recipient Russian hardware via the most expeditious means.
Crikey. Is that because they expect worldwide grain shortages as Ukraine is levelled?
Not good
From memory, Russia and Ukraine are the world’s number 1 and number 2 grain exporters.
No, Canada and the US are ahead of Ukraine. Russia is No 1, though.
Russia is about 18% of the world market and Ukraine about 8%.
We all know which Horseman follows war.
It's also worth remembering that the West (and the US in particular) can dramatically increase the amount grain available for human consumption by imposing a temporary ban on ethanol.
What about the Iowa Caucuses?
My God - we're only two years from the Iowa caucuses.
How much of the total EU energy supply comes from Russia?
Is it so much that such a mighty political union is unable to disperse the impact of it sufficiently to survive?
A lot of energy is fungible - a Russian barrel of oil (other than how your refineries are set up) is the same as an American one or a Saudi Arabian one or a Mexican one.
If the EU was to stop buying Russian oil, then it would be competing with the UK for these barrels. If China were to not observe sanctions, then they would buy the Russian barrels. And the EU would buy barrels from whoever the Chinese previously bought them from. The overall supply-demand balance would not shift, but the owners of oil tankers would end up making a bit more as barrels would - on average - be in transit for longer.
Or to put it another way: if the EU were to stop buying Russian oil, the impact would fall equally on all purchasers of non-Russian oil, in the form of increased demand for non-Russian oil.
Natural gas is different. It's mostly piped and on long-term contracts.
If Germany were to stop buying Russian gas, it would need to get it from somewhere else (and the Russians would not be able to sell it elsewhere as they have neither the pipeline or the LNG capacity. The effect would be to move the LNG market into shortage, and would mean that spot LNG cargoes would become very valuable indeed. (This would be extremely good news for Cheniere Energy.)
The impact would not be felt only in Germany, but in any other country that imported large numbers of spot LNG cargoes (notably the UK). We'd all be paying a lot more for gas - I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the $25-30/mmbtu range for landed LNG cargoes.
The market sorts it. We all suffer to wean Germany off Putin's teat.
There will be crisis PR people looking at #BoycottCocaCola and #BoycottMcDonalds trending highly tonight with images like this wondering the reputational damage is worth the relatively small, in scale of their global profits, vs damage of staying in Putin’s Russia. #Ukraine https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1499862572727783440/photo/1
Plus the magnitude and value of the profits are dropping by the second with the cratering economy and rapidly devaluing rouble respectively.
On two different topics, apparently Johnson is seen as Zelenskyy's closest ally.
"Worth noting that Zelensky views Johnson as his closest ally and has called him every day of the war to coordinate moves. Ukraine views the way that Britain led the push to arming Kyiv with Northern and Eastern Europeans as critical to its defence. The Ukrainian military views Britain as its leading champion in Europe. The UK trained 20,000 snipers and focused training on handheld anti-tank weaponry has proved essential in the field in blunting the Russian advance. [Heard from] Multiple personal government sources from multiple countries. Haven't written anything yet sadly. " https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1499823048005926919
And American briefing the Nordics on NATO/future attack plans of Russia?
"There are signals, and then there are signals. Finland's president, on a short-notice trip to Washington, meets the CIA director." and "Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist will visit Finland on Saturday 5 March." https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1499773865282658311
Crikey. Is that because they expect worldwide grain shortages as Ukraine is levelled?
Not good
From memory, Russia and Ukraine are the world’s number 1 and number 2 grain exporters.
No, Canada and the US are ahead of Ukraine. Russia is No 1, though.
Russia is about 18% of the world market and Ukraine about 8%.
We all know which Horseman follows war.
It's also worth remembering that the West (and the US in particular) can dramatically increase the amount grain available for human consumption by imposing a temporary ban on ethanol.
What about the Iowa Caucuses?
My God - we're only two years from the Iowa caucuses.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
Zeldisney is exactly what Johnson imagines himself to be. Multi talented actor/comedian/performer and once in a generation statesman.
He's a year older than me. Having enumerated all the things he's done in his life so far and compared it to mine I can comfort myself that I still have a year to catch up with him.
Think I'll start with the whole playing a piano with my penis thing, that seems achievable.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
UK has been involved with the US and the EU since day one
Indeed I have said on many occasions this should bring us closer, but what you and others of a similar bigoted mindset do not realise is that your constant sniping is actually negative to your hopes of a close relationship
Which was the poll by Ukrainians that rated Johnson No 1?
It was posted earlier with UK no 1 for Ukrainians by Ukrainians
I know it is hard for you to take
Yes, but how good a steer do the Ukrainians have on Pig Dog vs what we in this country have? You seem to have a "Rudolf the red nosed reindeer" attitude to the fat lying crook. Try assessing him on actual worth rather than popularity.
I suspect the Ukrainians are more grateful for the NLAWs than anything else. I suspect whoever was UK PM would be number 1 at the moment.
Loved that report that when they fire an NLAW at a Russian tank, they shout "God save the Queen!"
I believe they say:
"God Save the Queen - now that's a fascist regime"
Zeldisney is exactly what Johnson imagines himself to be. Multi talented actor/comedian/performer and once in a generation statesman.
He's a year older than me. Having enumerated all the things he's done in his life so far and compared it to mine I can comfort myself that I still have a year to catch up with him.
Think I'll start with the whole playing a piano with my penis thing, that seems achievable.
It's all fun and games until you bump the lid shut.
How much of the total EU energy supply comes from Russia?
Is it so much that such a mighty political union is unable to disperse the impact of it sufficiently to survive?
A lot of energy is fungible - a Russian barrel of oil (other than how your refineries are set up) is the same as an American one or a Saudi Arabian one or a Mexican one.
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
Crazy idea - why don’t you go somewhere else? I get it might be “the place to be” but as a good man of the people Labour supporter why not stand in support of the suppressed?
Sort of “put your money where your mouth is” or maybe “remove your head from where your arse is”.
You seem to have an awfy hard on for Rog. Has he stepped on your gerbil or similar?
Not at all. Just object to people who constantly belittle people such as the citizens of Hartlepool for having the temerity to think differently whilst having the ability to keep their lives in a bubble of pretty places with good restaurants and then claim to be “Labour”.
It’s a weird Hyacinth Bucket approach to life as it’s almost laboured how hard he tries to belittle others whilst not being anywhere near top rung but just enough reference points to feel an inner superiority.
It’s effectively a bien pensant euro-gammon where instead of the pub and red corduroys and a pink face it’s a terrasse, pink chinos and a pink face but feeling superior.
That’s one of the best takedowns I have ever read on PB. Chapeau
You have perfectly captured Roger; you have pinned him exquisitely and eternally to the card, like a rare-ish butterfly collected by Nabokov in the bucolic meadows of the Valais
I particularly like “bien pensant euro gammon”. That’s so acute. I have met similar
There was a time when even you could have done better than that. These days the humour's gone and you find yourself following in the wake of the likes of Boulay!
Two thirds of the 1m+ Ukranian refugees have headed to Poland (UNHCR).
That implies that approx 2% of the entire Polish population is a newly arrived Ukrainian refugee.
We really really do need to be relieving some of the pressure on Poland by pulling the refugees West. I say it again, the transport is right there ready. They can get the train all the way to Calais and it will cost them not a penny. All we need to do is open the door wide and say come.
I find it difficult to express just how disappointed I am with the UK Government over this. Patel in particular should hang her head in shame.
A friend of mine has a big country house in Norfolk. He has offered to take 6 Ukrainian families.
Well, whoopy doo. How many other big houses does he own? Does he actually ever live in the one you are referring to? What is the state of its interior decor? Would there be council tax benefits from fillling it with ukies? Are you trying to fill a gap left by the late lamented @Charles?
Just the first qs which spring to mind.
1. none 2. its his home 3. just spent a fortune doing it up 4. have to ask the council 5. impossible
The problem, as Leon alludes to, is that they might never want to return to Ukraine. So let's tell them they can't come, eh? Be for the best all round....
But do let me know if you have any q's that spring to mind.
Nae problem, but if he has had to seriously do up a house which will comfortably take 6 families plus him, he is worth £100m min, and prob £200m min before he started. All genuinely totally admirable but what he tells us about the bigger picture is hard to see.
Why is your automatic response to someone's reported generosity snide cynicism based on uninformed assumptions?
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
Zeldisney is exactly what Johnson imagines himself to be. Multi talented actor/comedian/performer and once in a generation statesman.
He's a year older than me. Having enumerated all the things he's done in his life so far and compared it to mine I can comfort myself that I still have a year to catch up with him.
Think I'll start with the whole playing a piano with my penis thing, that seems achievable.
I feel that’s at least one area in which our PM might manage to compete.
That is some of the most mind-blowing footage I have ever seen from a war zone
They will all win awards. Deservedly so
Not to downplay their experience, but back in the day Vice News used to have people embedded on the front lines against the likes of AQ and ISIS (and they have had people on the front line in Eastern Ukraine for years).
There was one reporter in particular (I can't remember his name), but has been under really heavy fire a number of times on camera.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is to be both wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
That is some of the most mind-blowing footage I have ever seen from a war zone
They will all win awards. Deservedly so
The thing about this footage is that I can imagine being in the car myself with my family, child in the back seat, no protective gear on, just going about our business driving up slowly to a checkpoint. We would all be dead.
Zeldisney is exactly what Johnson imagines himself to be. Multi talented actor/comedian/performer and once in a generation statesman.
He's a year older than me. Having enumerated all the things he's done in his life so far and compared it to mine I can comfort myself that I still have a year to catch up with him.
Think I'll start with the whole playing a piano with my penis thing, that seems achievable.
Remember history doesn’t really care about your age - just your actions at some point in your life
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is too be wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
Pleasure yourself with whatever interpretation you'd prefer.
I mean people that say we can't because nuclear war. I just said it in fewer words in a way that I hoped might prick the conscience of people more human people than you.
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
Crazy idea - why don’t you go somewhere else? I get it might be “the place to be” but as a good man of the people Labour supporter why not stand in support of the suppressed?
Sort of “put your money where your mouth is” or maybe “remove your head from where your arse is”.
You seem to have an awfy hard on for Rog. Has he stepped on your gerbil or similar?
Not at all. Just object to people who constantly belittle people such as the citizens of Hartlepool for having the temerity to think differently whilst having the ability to keep their lives in a bubble of pretty places with good restaurants and then claim to be “Labour”.
It’s a weird Hyacinth Bucket approach to life as it’s almost laboured how hard he tries to belittle others whilst not being anywhere near top rung but just enough reference points to feel an inner superiority.
It’s effectively a bien pensant euro-gammon where instead of the pub and red corduroys and a pink face it’s a terrasse, pink chinos and a pink face but feeling superior.
That’s one of the best takedowns I have ever read on PB. Chapeau
You have perfectly captured Roger; you have pinned him exquisitely and eternally to the card, like a rare-ish butterfly collected by Nabokov in the bucolic meadows of the Valais
I particularly like “bien pensant euro gammon”. That’s so acute. I have met similar
There was a time when even you could have done better than that. These days the humour's gone and you find yourself following in the wake of the likes of Boulay!
It is time for others to assume my mantle. I do not repine
And “bien pensant euro gammon” is simply genius. It is you. A red faced Farage of the minor public school Left, 500 miles south of Surrey
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
I sincerely hope you're planning to do your bit for Ukraine via the old dine'n'dash.
Watching the triggernometry show on youtube I was heartened to see them raise what must have been thousands of pounds from viewers to support Ukraine. Usually viewers send £2, £5, £10. Today it was £20, £50, £100.
I was chilled by what Russian/Ukrainian comedian Konstantin Kisin was saying. That if the war goes badly Putin will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Even if he does and I really hope he wouldn't, it makes no difference.
So far, Putin and Russia have been scrupulously careful - no direct attack on NATO territory, no direct confrontation with NATO troops - yes, you can argue by supplying Ukraine with weapons, we are involved but the Cold War was a series of combats by proxy around the world when we would supply arms, "advisers" and the like and so would Moscow in Africa, SE Asia and elsewhere.
My local Tesco now 148.9p for a litre of unleaded - the highest ever surpassing the 2008 price just before the global financial crisis.
It's curious - two years ago, you couldn't give a barrel of oil away - now, West Texas Intermediate above $115 on the futures market and natural gas prices skyrocketing.
What are or will be the economic and political impacts of a prolonged period of higher energy prices? Inflation, you'd think and a return of organised labour militancy (bring back Abba and the Wurzels and we can re-create the 70s right now). Is stagflation possible? It does seem to kill off any hopes of a tax cut as there will be irresistible calls for increases in defence spending.
It's been 30 years since meaningful inflation - I think we had a brief period of double digit inflation around 1990 and back then we were shadowing the Deutsche Mark in the ERM which meant interest rates were high.
It's not just a problem for the Government (though they'll cop the flak) but it's a problem for the Opposition. Dreams of big spending big borrowing infrastructural spending and investment look to be over and I suspect we'll be looking at substantial public spending cuts outside defence and the NHS (both now sacrosanct for different reasons). The issue of care for vulnerable adults and children remains as well despite the big tax rise in April.
That is some of the most mind-blowing footage I have ever seen from a war zone
They will all win awards. Deservedly so
The thing about this footage is that I can imagine being in the car myself with my family, child in the back seat, no protective gear on, just going about our business driving up slowly to a checkpoint. We would all be dead.
Everything about it is so visceral. The zing of the bullets. The flying sparks and shattered glass. The absolute certainty you are going to die
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
Crazy idea - why don’t you go somewhere else? I get it might be “the place to be” but as a good man of the people Labour supporter why not stand in support of the suppressed?
Sort of “put your money where your mouth is” or maybe “remove your head from where your arse is”.
You seem to have an awfy hard on for Rog. Has he stepped on your gerbil or similar?
Not at all. Just object to people who constantly belittle people such as the citizens of Hartlepool for having the temerity to think differently whilst having the ability to keep their lives in a bubble of pretty places with good restaurants and then claim to be “Labour”.
It’s a weird Hyacinth Bucket approach to life as it’s almost laboured how hard he tries to belittle others whilst not being anywhere near top rung but just enough reference points to feel an inner superiority.
It’s effectively a bien pensant euro-gammon where instead of the pub and red corduroys and a pink face it’s a terrasse, pink chinos and a pink face but feeling superior.
That’s one of the best takedowns I have ever read on PB. Chapeau
You have perfectly captured Roger; you have pinned him exquisitely and eternally to the card, like a rare-ish butterfly collected by Nabokov in the bucolic meadows of the Valais
I particularly like “bien pensant euro gammon”. That’s so acute. I have met similar
There was a time when even you could have done better than that. These days the humour's gone and you find yourself following in the wake of the likes of Boulay!
Good effort Roger but it was all a bit Maggie Smith as Dowager Duchess of Grantham series 6 when the writers had run out of pithy put downs two series prior and just had her saying “you smell”.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
But what if Putin goes for Estonia?
Does NATO mean Estonians are worth more than Ukrainians?
Or do we ignore that too, and everything else he does because of nukes?
How much of the total EU energy supply comes from Russia?
Is it so much that such a mighty political union is unable to disperse the impact of it sufficiently to survive?
A lot of energy is fungible - a Russian barrel of oil (other than how your refineries are set up) is the same as an American one or a Saudi Arabian one or a Mexican one.
If the EU was to stop buying Russian oil, then it would be competing with the UK for these barrels. If China were to not observe sanctions, then they would buy the Russian barrels. And the EU would buy barrels from whoever the Chinese previously bought them from. The overall supply-demand balance would not shift, but the owners of oil tankers would end up making a bit more as barrels would - on average - be in transit for longer.
Or to put it another way: if the EU were to stop buying Russian oil, the impact would fall equally on all purchasers of non-Russian oil, in the form of increased demand for non-Russian oil.
Natural gas is different. It's mostly piped and on long-term contracts.
If Germany were to stop buying Russian gas, it would need to get it from somewhere else (and the Russians would not be able to sell it elsewhere as they have neither the pipeline or the LNG capacity. The effect would be to move the LNG market into shortage, and would mean that spot LNG cargoes would become very valuable indeed. (This would be extremely good news for Cheniere Energy.)
The impact would not be felt only in Germany, but in any other country that imported large numbers of spot LNG cargoes (notably the UK). We'd all be paying a lot more for gas - I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the $25-30/mmbtu range for landed LNG cargoes.
The market sorts it. We all suffer to wean Germany off Putin's teat.
Good. Let's get on with it.
Oh.. We can't.
Only Germany can.
I think Italy currently imports more Russian natural gas than Germany - they use the pipeline that crosses Ukraine.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is to be both wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
Personally, I have no concerns about going to meet my maker, I just don't want to be part of a queue of 7 billion at the pearly gates when I get there.
How much of the total EU energy supply comes from Russia?
Is it so much that such a mighty political union is unable to disperse the impact of it sufficiently to survive?
A lot of energy is fungible - a Russian barrel of oil (other than how your refineries are set up) is the same as an American one or a Saudi Arabian one or a Mexican one.
If the EU was to stop buying Russian oil, then it would be competing with the UK for these barrels. If China were to not observe sanctions, then they would buy the Russian barrels. And the EU would buy barrels from whoever the Chinese previously bought them from. The overall supply-demand balance would not shift, but the owners of oil tankers would end up making a bit more as barrels would - on average - be in transit for longer.
Or to put it another way: if the EU were to stop buying Russian oil, the impact would fall equally on all purchasers of non-Russian oil, in the form of increased demand for non-Russian oil.
Natural gas is different. It's mostly piped and on long-term contracts.
If Germany were to stop buying Russian gas, it would need to get it from somewhere else (and the Russians would not be able to sell it elsewhere as they have neither the pipeline or the LNG capacity. The effect would be to move the LNG market into shortage, and would mean that spot LNG cargoes would become very valuable indeed. (This would be extremely good news for Cheniere Energy.)
The impact would not be felt only in Germany, but in any other country that imported large numbers of spot LNG cargoes (notably the UK). We'd all be paying a lot more for gas - I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the $25-30/mmbtu range for landed LNG cargoes.
The market sorts it. We all suffer to wean Germany off Putin's teat.
Good. Let's get on with it.
Oh.. We can't.
Only Germany can.
I think Italy currently imports more Russian natural gas than Germany - they use the pipeline that crosses Ukraine.
So why are they still funding the Putin war machine?
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
That is some of the most mind-blowing footage I have ever seen from a war zone
They will all win awards. Deservedly so
Not to downplay their experience, but back in the day Vice News used to have people embedded on the front lines against the likes of AQ and ISIS (and they have had people on the front line in Eastern Ukraine for years).
There was one reporter in particular (I can't remember his name), but has been under really heavy fire a number of times on camera.
Vice News used to be absolutely top notch in reporting from wars.
That’s deeply impressive, but the Sky footage is a lot scarier. It is hard to comprehend how they all survived, as they admit
Incredible luck
They might be feeling elated now - as you do after a brush with death - but I wonder if the trauma will hit home later. Some war journalists never recover from close shaves like that. The nerves go. They can’t do it any more
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
After WWII the Nazi's UK execution list emerged, Communists, Trade Unionists, Labour Politicians, homosexuals and so forth. As Noel Coward remarked, "To think, the people we'd have been seen dead with".
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
And we bought their exports and shielded their kleptocrats while this was going on.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
Crazy idea - why don’t you go somewhere else? I get it might be “the place to be” but as a good man of the people Labour supporter why not stand in support of the suppressed?
Sort of “put your money where your mouth is” or maybe “remove your head from where your arse is”.
You seem to have an awfy hard on for Rog. Has he stepped on your gerbil or similar?
Not at all. Just object to people who constantly belittle people such as the citizens of Hartlepool for having the temerity to think differently whilst having the ability to keep their lives in a bubble of pretty places with good restaurants and then claim to be “Labour”.
It’s a weird Hyacinth Bucket approach to life as it’s almost laboured how hard he tries to belittle others whilst not being anywhere near top rung but just enough reference points to feel an inner superiority.
It’s effectively a bien pensant euro-gammon where instead of the pub and red corduroys and a pink face it’s a terrasse, pink chinos and a pink face but feeling superior.
That’s one of the best takedowns I have ever read on PB. Chapeau
You have perfectly captured Roger; you have pinned him exquisitely and eternally to the card, like a rare-ish butterfly collected by Nabokov in the bucolic meadows of the Valais
I particularly like “bien pensant euro gammon”. That’s so acute. I have met similar
There was a time when even you could have done better than that. These days the humour's gone and you find yourself following in the wake of the likes of Boulay!
It is time for others to assume my mantle. I do not repine
And “bien pensant euro gammon” is simply genius. It is you. A red faced Farage of the minor public school Left, 500 miles south of Surrey
Good at least that we can now ignore righty bleating about the term gammon being rayzist.
Watching the triggernometry show on youtube I was heartened to see them raise what must have been thousands of pounds from viewers to support Ukraine. Usually viewers send £2, £5, £10. Today it was £20, £50, £100.
I was chilled by what Russian/Ukrainian comedian Konstantin Kisin was saying. That if the war goes badly Putin will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.
I was impressed with the fact that they were donating the money on triggernometry to the Ukrainian military bank account. I think I will do the same from now on. There are more than enough people willing to donate to refugee efforts, which is helping the tiny percentage of the population who has been fortunate enough to get out. What about the people stuck in the country facing this hell? The best answer is surely to be backing the military. The debate about refugees is peripheral, it is just a distraction.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is too be wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
Pleasure yourself with whatever interpretation you'd prefer.
I mean people that say we can't because nuclear war. I just said it in fewer words in a way that I hoped might prick the conscience of people more human people than you.
Yes but the underlying thought there is I BlancheLivermore don't befoul myself with terror at the thought of nuclear war, unlike the micro dicked bedwetting IshmaelZ. The reality is I am a 60 year old cancer survivor, I dedicate most of my time to riding horses fast over large obstacles and to serious offshore sailing, and I am therefore pretty much immune to allegations of cowardice and inhumanity from pot-valiant carpet knights like yourself.
@J_Jaraczewski Just received my first official Russian complaint about my tweets: "Mr Jaraczevski, you forget that in 1939 Russia saved Poles living in Western Ukraine from Nazi invasion" yeah mate that's not exactly how we remember the result of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko · 2h Tonight is a pretty quiet night so far. It looks like new Russian convoys northwest of Kyiv have been defeated - again.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
Do you think us nobly staying out of it will help?
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
But what if Putin goes for Estonia?
Does NATO mean Estonians are worth more than Ukrainians?
Or do we ignore that too, and everything else he does because of nukes?
You don’t understand alliances. NATO is a defensive alliance, where we have all sworn to protect each other. So, yes, in a terrible way Estonians are worth more than Ukrainians, to me, because Estonians have sworn to protect ME and MY FAMILY if Britain is attacked, as we have sworn to protect them. Ukraine has not done that, for reasons of realpolitik which are cruel but there it is
As NATO we hang together or we will surely hang apart. It is the biggest toughest military alliance on the planet, It keeps us safe. We have neglected it for far too long, to the point where Macron was calling it “brain dead”. It certainly does not feel “brain dead” now. It feels fundamental to our continued existence. We need to up our defence spending and make sure NATO defends NATO borders
If we don’t go to war to defend Estonia then the whole point of NATO collapses, and we are all horrifically weaker and more vulnerable. So, NATO it is
Sweden and Finland need to join ASAP and Ireland needs to stop freeloading
That is some of the most mind-blowing footage I have ever seen from a war zone
They will all win awards. Deservedly so
Not to downplay their experience, but back in the day Vice News used to have people embedded on the front lines against the likes of AQ and ISIS (and they have had people on the front line in Eastern Ukraine for years).
There was one reporter in particular (I can't remember his name), but has been under really heavy fire a number of times on camera.
Vice News used to be absolutely top notch in reporting from wars.
That’s deeply impressive, but the Sky footage is a lot scarier. It is hard to comprehend how they all survived, as they admit
Incredible luck
They might be feeling elated now - as you do after a brush with death - but I wonder if the trauma will hit home later. Some war journalists never recover from close shaves like that. The nerves go. They can’t do it any more
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
You know what is even more pococurante than that? It's that I haven't a clue what war you are on about. Congo? Nigeria? Where?
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
Do you think us nobly staying out of it will help?
We aren't staying out of it. We are doing everything short of sending troops.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
you can always go to Ukraine and fight - nothing stopping you - Ukraine has said they want people to
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
Do you think us nobly staying out of it will help?
So nobly fucking get in there, love, or live forever after with the little Livermores asking What you did in the war, daddy? What's stopping you?
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
I hope you're right.
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
This is all too simplistic. It's not about whether we give enough of a 'fuck' now to rush in and do something - anything - it's about what is the right approach to finally smash Putin and all his works.
No wonder people go mad and lose perspective after spending too much time on political twitter.
Now COVID is on the back burner, I have scaled who I follow back to academic information and generative art. Loving the "bot" accounts that generative AI picture, very calming.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
You know what is even more pococurante than that? It's that I haven't a clue what war you are on about. Congo? Nigeria? Where?
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is too be wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
Pleasure yourself with whatever interpretation you'd prefer.
I mean people that say we can't because nuclear war. I just said it in fewer words in a way that I hoped might prick the conscience of people more human people than you.
Yes but the underlying thought there is I BlancheLivermore don't befoul myself with terror at the thought of nuclear war, unlike the micro dicked bedwetting IshmaelZ. The reality is I am a 60 year old cancer survivor, I dedicate most of my time to riding horses fast over large obstacles and to serious offshore sailing, and I am therefore pretty much immune to allegations of cowardice and inhumanity from pot-valiant carpet knights like yourself.
I learnt Never Again
We're watching it unfold again right in front of our eyes.
A people are being massacred.
If we don't take the risk this time then it gets harder next time.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
I hope you're right.
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
Ukraine is not going to “replace Russia in the first rank of nations”. An idiotic idea
Russia might be a basket case for a while, however. But then again it has been a basket case for nearly all of its history, yet has remained a great power since at least the late 17th century, it is just so bloody big
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is too be wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
Pleasure yourself with whatever interpretation you'd prefer.
I mean people that say we can't because nuclear war. I just said it in fewer words in a way that I hoped might prick the conscience of people more human people than you.
Yes but the underlying thought there is I BlancheLivermore don't befoul myself with terror at the thought of nuclear war, unlike the micro dicked bedwetting IshmaelZ. The reality is I am a 60 year old cancer survivor, I dedicate most of my time to riding horses fast over large obstacles and to serious offshore sailing, and I am therefore pretty much immune to allegations of cowardice and inhumanity from pot-valiant carpet knights like yourself.
I learnt Never Again
We're watching it unfold again right in front of our eyes.
A people are being massacred.
If we don't take the risk this time then it gets harder next time.
And another people gets massacred.
One day you'll say it's enough.
So go to ukraine then! You cannot urge others to do your fighting and hide behind virtuous drivel
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
Crazy idea - why don’t you go somewhere else? I get it might be “the place to be” but as a good man of the people Labour supporter why not stand in support of the suppressed?
Sort of “put your money where your mouth is” or maybe “remove your head from where your arse is”.
You seem to have an awfy hard on for Rog. Has he stepped on your gerbil or similar?
Not at all. Just object to people who constantly belittle people such as the citizens of Hartlepool for having the temerity to think differently whilst having the ability to keep their lives in a bubble of pretty places with good restaurants and then claim to be “Labour”.
It’s a weird Hyacinth Bucket approach to life as it’s almost laboured how hard he tries to belittle others whilst not being anywhere near top rung but just enough reference points to feel an inner superiority.
It’s effectively a bien pensant euro-gammon where instead of the pub and red corduroys and a pink face it’s a terrasse, pink chinos and a pink face but feeling superior.
That’s one of the best takedowns I have ever read on PB. Chapeau
You have perfectly captured Roger; you have pinned him exquisitely and eternally to the card, like a rare-ish butterfly collected by Nabokov in the bucolic meadows of the Valais
I particularly like “bien pensant euro gammon”. That’s so acute. I have met similar
There was a time when even you could have done better than that. These days the humour's gone and you find yourself following in the wake of the likes of Boulay!
It is time for others to assume my mantle. I do not repine
And “bien pensant euro gammon” is simply genius. It is you. A red faced Farage of the minor public school Left, 500 miles south of Surrey
That's quite sad. Like Norma desmond in Sunset Boulevard
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
But what if Putin goes for Estonia?
Does NATO mean Estonians are worth more than Ukrainians?
Or do we ignore that too, and everything else he does because of nukes?
Ultimately, illogically and tragically, yes.
I'm with @Dura_Ace and others on this - it is as brutal and tragic for Ukraine in 2022 as it was for Hungary in 1956 and it will be heart breaking.
And yet - the alternative, the destruction of our country, the deaths of millions of British people, the long-term degradation of civilisation in much of the world, decades of hunger, suffering, disease for large numbers of those humans unfortunate enough to survive the blasts, the heat, the radiation, the burns etc.
My family's death, Mrs Stodge's death, my death - yes, none of it justifies going to war with Russia.
People seem to regard Putin as mad - was Stalin, was Brezhnev, was Andropov? I don't know - I have to hope and believe Putin understands where we end up if he goes too far and so far he has been very careful not to cross the line. I worry we were being whipped into a 1914-style war psychosis where our understandable desire to help those in need leads us over the cliff to disaster.
Will Putin threaten Estonia or Latvia one day? He hasn't yet - he may do and he can threaten all he likes but he knows and I know where crossing the line ends for his people as well as for us. Even Kim-Jong-Un knows it - he blusters, he threatens, he provokes but he doesn't cross that line.
That's the thing about nuclear war - we all lose. That's why while we must do all we can to mitigate the suffering of Ukrainian refugees and while we must push for a negotiated settlement or at least a humanitarian pause the one thing we cannot and absolutely must not do is directly militarily intervene.
Chameleon - I feel quite proud at the suggestion but it does seem rather odd that he isn't speaking more with Biden who i would have felt was more important.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
Do you think us nobly staying out of it will help?
So nobly fucking get in there, love, or live forever after with the little Livermores asking What you did in the war, daddy? What's stopping you?
BL has a note from Mum excusing him from charging the Russian lines - she expressly forbids him to go anywhere chilly before May, even with his thermal long Johns. Otherwise he'd be there like a shot.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
This is all too simplistic. It's not about whether we give enough of a 'fuck' now to rush in and do something - anything - it's about what is the right approach to finally smash Putin and all his works.
Sure, but @Dura_Ace reduces it to the essence, in a colourfully pithy way. I do give a fuck about Poland or Belgium or Spain or Latvia - because they are NATO partners and NATO is the bedrock of Britain’s security, tying in mighty America, ensuring we will never be overrrun by awful regimes like Russia or China. Although the horrors of Ukraine appall me - and sometimes make me want to nuke Moscow, literally - in the end I don’t care enough to seriously risk total nuclear war to save Ukraine
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
This is all too simplistic. It's not about whether we give enough of a 'fuck' now to rush in and do something - anything - it's about what is the right approach to finally smash Putin and all his works.
This ends Putin no matter what the result. If he wins and goes for the next country the Military won't do it, because they won't be able to for years. Were he to lose, then it is goodbye. There isn't a scenario where he is around for more than 12 months. Sanction will not be lifted with him in place.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
"Scared of" is utterly contemptible. What on earth makes you think that it is OK to suggest that people proposing a certain reaction to Putin are concerned about their own safety vs the overall outcome?
I'm being pithy. It's clear what I mean.
Very clear. You are saying that to disagree with you is not just to be wrong, it is too be wrong and cowardly.
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
Pleasure yourself with whatever interpretation you'd prefer.
I mean people that say we can't because nuclear war. I just said it in fewer words in a way that I hoped might prick the conscience of people more human people than you.
Yes but the underlying thought there is I BlancheLivermore don't befoul myself with terror at the thought of nuclear war, unlike the micro dicked bedwetting IshmaelZ. The reality is I am a 60 year old cancer survivor, I dedicate most of my time to riding horses fast over large obstacles and to serious offshore sailing, and I am therefore pretty much immune to allegations of cowardice and inhumanity from pot-valiant carpet knights like yourself.
I learnt Never Again
We're watching it unfold again right in front of our eyes.
A people are being massacred.
If we don't take the risk this time then it gets harder next time.
And another people gets massacred.
One day you'll say it's enough.
So go to ukraine then! You cannot urge others to do your fighting and hide behind virtuous drivel
Otoh it appears that someone can urge others to do their fighting and hide behind virtuous drivel.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
The right thing is to not kill BILLIONS of people
No one is going to kill billions of people because it would result in their own extinction.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
This is all too simplistic. It's not about whether we give enough of a 'fuck' now to rush in and do something - anything - it's about what is the right approach to finally smash Putin and all his works.
Sure, but @Dura_Ace reduces it to the essence, in a colourfully pithy way. I do give a fuck about Poland or Belgium or Spain or Latvia - because they are NATO partners and NATO is the bedrock of Britain’s security, tying in mighty America, ensuring we will never be overrrun by awful regimes like Russia or China. Although the horrors of Ukraine appall me - and sometimes make me want to nuke Moscow, literally - in the end I don’t care enough to seriously risk total nuclear war to save Ukraine
It would be nice if our own defences were powerful enough to depend upon.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
I hope you're right.
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
If we really are in a new cold war and I'm not sure that's the analogy I would use, rebuilding Ukraine will be as important as rebuilding Germany in 1945.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
I hope you're right.
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
Ukraine is not going to “replace Russia in the first rank of nations”. An idiotic idea
Russia might be a basket case for a while, however. But then again it has been a basket case for nearly all of its history, yet has remained a great power since at least the late 17th century, it is just so bloody big
Although Putin's own logic is that Ukrainians and Russians are one people, so for him this is an existential civil war.
On Sunday I'm going to a hotel which is Russian owned and one where the vast majority of their clientele is Russian. I'm curious to see what the mood is like but if several have had their yachts confiscated it probably wont be great
Crazy idea - why don’t you go somewhere else? I get it might be “the place to be” but as a good man of the people Labour supporter why not stand in support of the suppressed?
Sort of “put your money where your mouth is” or maybe “remove your head from where your arse is”.
You seem to have an awfy hard on for Rog. Has he stepped on your gerbil or similar?
Not at all. Just object to people who constantly belittle people such as the citizens of Hartlepool for having the temerity to think differently whilst having the ability to keep their lives in a bubble of pretty places with good restaurants and then claim to be “Labour”.
It’s a weird Hyacinth Bucket approach to life as it’s almost laboured how hard he tries to belittle others whilst not being anywhere near top rung but just enough reference points to feel an inner superiority.
It’s effectively a bien pensant euro-gammon where instead of the pub and red corduroys and a pink face it’s a terrasse, pink chinos and a pink face but feeling superior.
That’s one of the best takedowns I have ever read on PB. Chapeau
You have perfectly captured Roger; you have pinned him exquisitely and eternally to the card, like a rare-ish butterfly collected by Nabokov in the bucolic meadows of the Valais
I particularly like “bien pensant euro gammon”. That’s so acute. I have met similar
There was a time when even you could have done better than that. These days the humour's gone and you find yourself following in the wake of the likes of Boulay!
It is time for others to assume my mantle. I do not repine
And “bien pensant euro gammon” is simply genius. It is you. A red faced Farage of the minor public school Left, 500 miles south of Surrey
That's quite sad. Like Norma desmond in Sunset Boulevard
Aw shucks, I will come visit you in Villefranche and we can talk about the old times over pastis de Marseille
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Bluntly put, as is your wont, but very true. I feel exactly the same
This is all too simplistic. It's not about whether we give enough of a 'fuck' now to rush in and do something - anything - it's about what is the right approach to finally smash Putin and all his works.
Sure, but @Dura_Ace reduces it to the essence, in a colourfully pithy way. I do give a fuck about Poland or Belgium or Spain or Latvia - because they are NATO partners and NATO is the bedrock of Britain’s security, tying in mighty America, ensuring we will never be overrrun by awful regimes like Russia or China. Although the horrors of Ukraine appall me - and sometimes make me want to nuke Moscow, literally - in the end I don’t care enough to seriously risk total nuclear war to save Ukraine
The thing is we don't even need to militarily intervene. We just need to keep up and add to the sanctions, focusing on Russian gas next, while also financing and arming Ukraine. We now know that we can cripple Russia's economy and Ukraine has shown that Russia can not militarily defeat them. The Ukrainians can keep a resistance movement for far longer than Russia can withstand sanctions.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
I hope you're right.
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
Ukraine is not going to “replace Russia in the first rank of nations”. An idiotic idea
Russia might be a basket case for a while, however. But then again it has been a basket case for nearly all of its history, yet has remained a great power since at least the late 17th century, it is just so bloody big
Although Putin's own logic is that Ukrainians and Russians are one people, so for him this is an existential civil war.
It also shows that Putin is willing to level Russian neighborhoods with carpet shelling.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
Of course, but I’m surer than a sure thing that I’m the best person to judge what I think is right. I’m so sure about it that I don’t even feel the need to batter other people over the head with it.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
You know what is even more pococurante than that? It's that I haven't a clue what war you are on about. Congo? Nigeria? Where?
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
Of course, but I’m surer than a sure thing that I’m the best person to judge what I think is right. I’m so sure about it that I don’t even feel the need to batter other people over the head with it.
That's good for you. I feel I am right 80% of the time on a new subject or situation. That rises to 95%+ after I put my view out there and listen to all the counter arguments.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
Of course, but I’m surer than a sure thing that I’m the best person to judge what I think is right. I’m so sure about it that I don’t even feel the need to batter other people over the head with it.
That's good for you. I feel I am right 80% of the time on a new subject or situation. That rises to 95%+ after I put my view out there and listen to all the counter arguments.
Is there literally nothing that you could see coming out of Ukraine that would change your minds?
No. In recent years there was a war in Africa that killed 5 million people, displaced another 2 million and featured industrial scale rape, enslavement and the forced conscription of children. I didn't give a fuck about that and I don't give enough of a fuck about Ukraine to risk a nuclear war with Russia that ends Western civilisation.
Got it, so because Russia has nukes they should just be allowed to invade and war crime whatever countries they want?
I predict this war will end with Russia a basket case, and Ukraine taking up its place in the first rank of nations.
I hope you're right.
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
Ukraine is not going to “replace Russia in the first rank of nations”. An idiotic idea
Russia might be a basket case for a while, however. But then again it has been a basket case for nearly all of its history, yet has remained a great power since at least the late 17th century, it is just so bloody big
Although Putin's own logic is that Ukrainians and Russians are one people, so for him this is an existential civil war.
It also shows that Putin is willing to level Russian neighborhoods with carpet shelling.
There was a Russian internet meme about 10 years ago based on the joke that Putin would retaliate against US sanctions by bombing Voronezh (in Russia).
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
The right thing is to not kill BILLIONS of people
No one is going to kill billions of people because it would result in their own extinction.
One has to hope. But every year teenage boys in America go on shooting sprees in their schools before killing themselves, and Islamist suicide bombers do likewise. We have to hope Putin is not so inclined.
If Putin conquers Britain I'll be proud to be one of those whose internet contributions showed unequivocally that they should be amongst those first up against the wall.
No one will give a fuk about your or my ‘internet contributions’, chief.
Whether the world ends up in a good place or a bad place is beyond any of us individually. The only thing we can do is to do the right thing, regardless of who will later judge us.
The right thing is to not kill BILLIONS of people
No one is going to kill billions of people because it would result in their own extinction.
One has to hope. But every year teenage boys in America go on shooting sprees in their schools before killing themselves, and Islamist suicide bombers do likewise. We have to hope Putin is not so inclined.
Putin would not have clambered to the top of the Russian state apparatus without valuing and prioritizing his own survival.
Comments
I was chilled by what Russian/Ukrainian comedian Konstantin Kisin was saying. That if the war goes badly Putin will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60623162
If the EU was to stop buying Russian oil, then it would be competing with the UK for these barrels. If China were to not observe sanctions, then they would buy the Russian barrels. And the EU would buy barrels from whoever the Chinese previously bought them from. The overall supply-demand balance would not shift, but the owners of oil tankers would end up making a bit more as barrels would - on average - be in transit for longer.
Or to put it another way: if the EU were to stop buying Russian oil, the impact would fall equally on all purchasers of non-Russian oil, in the form of increased demand for non-Russian oil.
Natural gas is different. It's mostly piped and on long-term contracts.
If Germany were to stop buying Russian gas, it would need to get it from somewhere else (and the Russians would not be able to sell it elsewhere as they have neither the pipeline or the LNG capacity. The effect would be to move the LNG market into shortage, and would mean that spot LNG cargoes would become very valuable indeed. (This would be extremely good news for Cheniere Energy.)
The impact would not be felt only in Germany, but in any other country that imported large numbers of spot LNG cargoes (notably the UK). We'd all be paying a lot more for gas - I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the $25-30/mmbtu range for landed LNG cargoes.
To no one's surprising, Macron announced himself a candidate yesterday and the polls certainly look reasonable for him currently.
The latest Ifop-Fiducial poll:
Macron: 29%
Le Pen: 17%
Pécresse : 14%
Zemmour:12%
Mélenchon: 11.5%
Opinion Way/Kea Partners:
Macron : 28%
Le Pen: 18%
Pécresse : 13%
Zemmour): 12%
Mélenchon: 11%
Finally, BVA:
Macron: 29%
Le Pen: 16%
Pécresse: 13%
Zemmour: 13%
Mélenchon: 11.5%
Macron in a very strong lead at this stage with Le Pen establishing a clear second place after a wobble or two last month though her apparent closeness to Putin may yet come back to haunt her. Pecresse has perhaps turned a corner after some dreadful numbers last week and Mélenchon is starting to pick up after a poor spell.
Macron-Le Pen seems the most likely but I wouldn't rule out a Macron-Pecresse run off if Le Pen suffers from her association with Putin and you can't discount a Macron-Mélenchon run off either. Last time, Le Pen got 21.3% in round one, Fillon got 20% and Mélenchon got 19.6% so it's feasible.
Good. Let's get on with it.
Oh.. We can't.
Only Germany can.
On two different topics, apparently Johnson is seen as Zelenskyy's closest ally.
"Worth noting that Zelensky views Johnson as his closest ally and has called him every day of the war to coordinate moves. Ukraine views the way that Britain led the push to arming Kyiv with Northern and Eastern Europeans as critical to its defence. The Ukrainian military views Britain as its leading champion in Europe. The UK trained 20,000 snipers and focused training on handheld anti-tank weaponry has proved essential in the field in blunting the Russian advance. [Heard from] Multiple personal government sources from multiple countries. Haven't written anything yet sadly. "
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1499823048005926919
And American briefing the Nordics on NATO/future attack plans of Russia?
"There are signals, and then there are signals. Finland's president, on a short-notice trip to Washington, meets the CIA director." and "Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist will visit Finland on Saturday 5 March."
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1499773865282658311
Think I'll start with the whole playing a piano with my penis thing, that seems achievable.
"God Save the Queen - now that's a fascist regime"
They will all win awards. Deservedly so
There was one reporter in particular (I can't remember his name), but has been under really heavy fire a number of times on camera.
e.g. 25 mins in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6axTxU30yo
This is the guy, who specialised for Vice doing this..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01t9w_MX9AY
Vice News used to be absolutely top notch in reporting from wars.
I got today’s geo-puzzle the very first go. And it is not easy
https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/
Which is just how all fanatics argue. Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer.
I mean people that say we can't because nuclear war. I just said it in fewer words in a way that I hoped might prick the conscience of people more human people than you.
And “bien pensant euro gammon” is simply genius. It is you. A red faced Farage of the minor public school Left, 500 miles south of Surrey
So far, Putin and Russia have been scrupulously careful - no direct attack on NATO territory, no direct confrontation with NATO troops - yes, you can argue by supplying Ukraine with weapons, we are involved but the Cold War was a series of combats by proxy around the world when we would supply arms, "advisers" and the like and so would Moscow in Africa, SE Asia and elsewhere.
My local Tesco now 148.9p for a litre of unleaded - the highest ever surpassing the 2008 price just before the global financial crisis.
It's curious - two years ago, you couldn't give a barrel of oil away - now, West Texas Intermediate above $115 on the futures market and natural gas prices skyrocketing.
What are or will be the economic and political impacts of a prolonged period of higher energy prices? Inflation, you'd think and a return of organised labour militancy (bring back Abba and the Wurzels and we can re-create the 70s right now). Is stagflation possible? It does seem to kill off any hopes of a tax cut as there will be irresistible calls for increases in defence spending.
It's been 30 years since meaningful inflation - I think we had a brief period of double digit inflation around 1990 and back then we were shadowing the Deutsche Mark in the ERM which meant interest rates were high.
It's not just a problem for the Government (though they'll cop the flak) but it's a problem for the Opposition. Dreams of big spending big borrowing infrastructural spending and investment look to be over and I suspect we'll be looking at substantial public spending cuts outside defence and the NHS (both now sacrosanct for different reasons). The issue of care for vulnerable adults and children remains as well despite the big tax rise in April.
Up your game.
Does NATO mean Estonians are worth more than Ukrainians?
Or do we ignore that too, and everything else he does because of nukes?
Nuclear war? No thanks!
To save the UK higher gas bills?
Incredible luck
They might be feeling elated now - as you do after a brush with death - but I wonder if the trauma will hit home later. Some war journalists never recover from close shaves like that. The nerves go. They can’t do it any more
@J_Jaraczewski
Just received my first official Russian complaint about my tweets: "Mr Jaraczevski, you forget that in 1939 Russia saved Poles living in Western Ukraine from Nazi invasion" yeah mate that's not exactly how we remember the result of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
https://twitter.com/J_Jaraczewski/status/1499743082304135172
Is it everything except NATO?
Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
·
2h
Tonight is a pretty quiet night so far.
It looks like new Russian convoys northwest of Kyiv have been defeated - again.
As NATO we hang together or we will surely hang apart. It is the biggest toughest military alliance on the planet, It keeps us safe. We have neglected it for far too long, to the point where Macron was calling it “brain dead”. It certainly does not feel “brain dead” now. It feels fundamental to our continued existence. We need to up our defence spending and make sure NATO defends NATO borders
If we don’t go to war to defend Estonia then the whole point of NATO collapses, and we are all horrifically weaker and more vulnerable. So, NATO it is
Sweden and Finland need to join ASAP and Ireland needs to stop freeloading
“This current event is actually about the thing I’m obsessed by” - Ukraine edition. 🧵
1. Brexit
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1497553538175614978
And I'll tell you something: if by some miracle Ukraine successfully repels the Russians, then I'd hope that we'd put something like the Marshall Plan together to rebuild their shattered economy.
Now COVID is on the back burner, I have scaled who I follow back to academic information and generative art. Loving the "bot" accounts that generative AI picture, very calming.
https://twitter.com/nin_artificial/status/1497432270067568645?s=20&t=qGN0k8mJn7woSjVc1-UC6A
We're watching it unfold again right in front of our eyes.
A people are being massacred.
If we don't take the risk this time then it gets harder next time.
And another people gets massacred.
One day you'll say it's enough.
Russia might be a basket case for a while, however. But then again it has been a basket case for nearly all of its history, yet has remained a great power since at least the late 17th century, it is just so bloody big
I'm with @Dura_Ace and others on this - it is as brutal and tragic for Ukraine in 2022 as it was for Hungary in 1956 and it will be heart breaking.
And yet - the alternative, the destruction of our country, the deaths of millions of British people, the long-term degradation of civilisation in much of the world, decades of hunger, suffering, disease for large numbers of those humans unfortunate enough to survive the blasts, the heat, the radiation, the burns etc.
My family's death, Mrs Stodge's death, my death - yes, none of it justifies going to war with Russia.
People seem to regard Putin as mad - was Stalin, was Brezhnev, was Andropov? I don't know - I have to hope and believe Putin understands where we end up if he goes too far and so far he has been very careful not to cross the line. I worry we were being whipped into a 1914-style war psychosis where our understandable desire to help those in need leads us over the cliff to disaster.
Will Putin threaten Estonia or Latvia one day? He hasn't yet - he may do and he can threaten all he likes but he knows and I know where crossing the line ends for his people as well as for us. Even Kim-Jong-Un knows it - he blusters, he threatens, he provokes but he doesn't cross that line.
That's the thing about nuclear war - we all lose. That's why while we must do all we can to mitigate the suffering of Ukrainian refugees and while we must push for a negotiated settlement or at least a humanitarian pause the one thing we cannot and absolutely must not do is directly militarily intervene.
If he wins and goes for the next country the Military won't do it, because they won't be able to for years.
Were he to lose, then it is goodbye.
There isn't a scenario where he is around for more than 12 months. Sanction will not be lifted with him in place.
He’s got to be careful to not burn up western goodwill .