Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
- Joshua Foss: Enough bombs have been planted in this building to stop all the clocks in the hemisphere. - Vice President: You'll die with us. - Joshua Foss: Could be. - Mrs. Baldwin: I don't think anyone with manicured fingernails wearing a ten-thousand-dollar wristwatch is planning on blowing himself up.
Called up to change our reservation from SF to LHR to MEX to LHR, the nice lady offered us an upgrade to club class from premium economy for £210 each. I don't usually pay for club out of my own money but it seemed like too much of a steal to pass up. All confirmed too in the app so it definitely wasn't a scam by BA.
Finally, a glittering mote of redemptive light on a smoke choked battlefield. We are all absolutely thrilled for you.
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
I heard the World at One today. Heartbreaking. I know people become inured to the human consequences of this but it is a necessary listen.
Same watching Newsnight.
The number of refugees Poland is already accepting is astonishing - and depending on the event of the next few weeks that might be only a small fraction of the numbers to come.
For those who don't understand, if you convert your robules or dollars to bitcoin, you could theoretically walk through airport security and exit russia with billions of dollars in value, using nothing more than a 24 word combination you've written down, or memorised.
And if you still don't understand why bitcoin has the value it has today after reading this, you never will.
It will be hilarious when those kleptocrats Bitcoin wallets just empty. Come on GCHQ, we know you can...
Why? You wait for the wallet to be cashed In and hit them with an unexplained wealth request?
There is a semi-legend that the KGB had a vast slush fund in Western banks and on the stock market. The CIA knew, but just watched.
So the story goes, some of guys who got fired in the Iran-Contra thing liberated the money. So when the KGB types tried to launch the coup against Gorbachev, they found the piggy bank was empty.
All of Zelensky's predecessors were pretty shitty people. Typical politicians able to push their own agendas in a country that was too used to either dictators or instability. He really does seem to stand out as one of those rare instances of an honest politician trying to do what is best for his people.
Of course he was only there for less than 3 years before this all blew up so who knows if he would have succumbed to the power trip as his political career continued.
“During his inaugural address in 2019, Zelensky told lawmakers: “I do not want my picture in your offices: the President is not an icon, an idol or a portrait. Hang your kids' photos instead,and look at them each time you’re making a decision.” #ukraine #NATO #russia https://twitter.com/nftcommunitys/status/1498762294846701573/photo/1
What happens if one's kids are... not particularly good looking... Can I hang a picture of someone else's instead?
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
And it’s entirely possible that sheer malice might outweigh any other of his limited repertoire of emotions.
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
He won't do it - He clearly wants every day of extra life available to him. It's too much of a risk and those around him would be telling him this and making it clear too. The foreign secretary saying "we don't want a nuclear war" is clearly a row-back on that and it tells. He won't pull the trigger.
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, have discussed the conflict engulfing the eastern European nation in a call.
Wang told Kuleba he "deeply regrets" the conflict and is "paying extreme attention to the harm suffered by civilians", according to the AFP news agency quoting Chinese state media.
He also called for both sides to "find a way to resolve the issue through negotiations", the same source reported.
In the call, which marks the first between the two men since Russia's invasion on Thursday, Kuleba asked Beijing to use its ties with Moscow to help halt the invasion, the Reuters news agency said.
Wang is said to have offered to make every effort to end the violence diplomatically, the agency wrote.
I think the Chinese have waited to see how this turned out, but can now see the writing on the wall for Putin.
I think partially. I think they are privately seething though as well. There was an agreement nowt would happen till after the Olympics. There was a meeting between Putin and Xi. Yet the Chinese seemed blindsided by what actually happened. They still have citizens in Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine. Clearly Putin lied about the extent of his ambitions. A full scale total invasion wasn't what they anticipated.
I suspect the Chinese would be in different to his territorial ambitions and petty little local wars (as they might see it) but NOT if it fucks up the smooth flow of the world economy which they are carefully engineering to their advantage.
This is precisely what is happening as the West stun China and Putin by its level of blowback and determination.
Sarah Rainsford @sarahrainsford · 3h Now Apple stopped sales in Russia: try to buy anything online and you get a message that delivery isn’t possible (via BBC Russian service)
===
That's it. The RU people will rise up tomorrow. At least the under 60 year olds will anyway.
I heard the World at One today. Heartbreaking. I know people become inured to the human consequences of this but it is a necessary listen.
Same watching Newsnight.
The number of refugees Poland is already accepting is astonishing - and depending on the event of the next few weeks that might be only a small fraction of the numbers to come.
Poland/Ukraine is an interesting one. There seems to be quite a rapport. Catholicism is dominant in west Ukraine.
The one thing about Ukraine that we may be overlooking is that it does have a part of the population that is Russian. We don't really know what they think about the current situation. Are they happy about starting talks to join the EU and being conscripted to fight the invading Russian Army? How representative is the government and the public face of Ukraine that we see in the western media?
Apologies to peddle Kremlin talking points, but it does feel like we don't know very much about this country and make a lot of unexplored assumptions about it.
Only about 4% of Ukrainians voted for Rusophile political parties in the last elections - almost entirely in the far far East.
ok sure - but as recently as 2014 the country had a pro Russian president who was elected. As I recall he was ousted in a coup, over his reluctance to progress EU accession talks. It is said that a large part of his support was in the south and east - presumably areas that are now defacto controlled by Russia. Does that mean that the forces that bought Yanukovich to power, and are presumably sceptical about the EU, no longer exist in the rest of Ukraine? Have they really dropped to 4% of the country? I would be surprised if that is really the case.
I think you have to look at what has happened since Zelensky was elected in 2019. For a start he is an ethnic Russian. Funnily enough during the campaign his opponent and predecessor used Zelensky's Russian background to claim he would be Moscow's man in Ukraine. Once in power he removed immunity for Members of Parliament and introduced laws to remove the power of the Oligarchs in Ukraine. He also sacked all 15 regional Oblast leaders and heads of the main law enforcement agencies. Once that was all done he reached out to the separatists and tried to get a peace deal which included recognising the result of elections run by the separatists in their regions.
Basically from what I can see he has bent over backwards to do whatever he can to bridge any divide between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. I get the impression the people generally can see this and understand it which is why so many ethnic Russians are siding with Ukraine as their country against their cousins from the East.
Interesting. He's definetly earned his place in history; no doubt he will be studied for many years to come.
I am clear in my mind that Putin is a grave threat to Europe and that his regime needs to be overthrown. But as for Ukrainian politics, this is something I know nothing about.
Neither did I until last week. Since then I have been reading a lot about it, both ancient and modern. All of Zelensky's predecessors were pretty shitty people. Typical politicians able to push their own agendas in a country that was too used to either dictators or instability. He really does seem to stand out as one of those rare instances of an honest politician trying to do what is best for his people.
Of course he was only there for less than 3 years before this all blew up so who knows if he would have succumbed to the power trip as his political career continued.
In case people haven't seen it, in the first episode of Servant of the People, the tv show where Zelensky plays President, he gives a two minute speech about precisely what you say above. It's this speech that leads his fictional character to become president.
Starts at about 11:40, in case the link doesn't take you directly to the speech.
They should put it on global Netflix but as a nice touch get Ben Whishaw (Paddington voice that he dubbed) to do the dubbing for him in English.
Boulay. What was your username before you decided to reinvent yourself? I don't remember a poster quite as vulgar. Were you banned or did you just think it time for a change?
I was responding to one kind of vulgarity with another.
If it’s any help answering your question though, my username before my current “reinvention” at the same time you joined PB was a variation of my current username which I had used since 2007 - weirdly never had to be vulgar before then as nobody was weighing up the loss of buildings over people back then.
Well whoever is running this site this evening has taken your post down. but you're still here, Pity. They must have thought it wrote itself
That’s a great retort.
You probably should have tried something else like “your mum” or “you ok, hun?” Or even “cool story, bro”.
I expected something better from a creative.
I've seen that female organ thing done so many times but rarely so clumsily. Didn't you read it back and think you'd like to have another try?
For those who don't understand, if you convert your robules or dollars to bitcoin, you could theoretically walk through airport security and exit russia with billions of dollars in value, using nothing more than a 24 word combination you've written down, or memorised.
And if you still don't understand why bitcoin has the value it has today after reading this, you never will.
It will be hilarious when those kleptocrats Bitcoin wallets just empty. Come on GCHQ, we know you can...
This was always the fear of central banks about crypto. It was a way for criminals to avoid legal shit.
It's also a way for ordinary citizens to avoid having their accounts frozen for saying the wrong thing, their money seized for supporting the wrong cause, their savings eroded by money printing, or lost when banks collapse (e.g. due to the leader of their country invading a neighbour).
Bitcoin is the internet for money. It's permissionless, censorship resistant and decentralised. The internet has wikipedia, twitter and PB, but it also has reams of child porn, instructions on how to build a bomb, and conspiracy theorists.
Bitcoin is the same - it's neutral as to who uses it and what they do with it. So yes, it could theoretically help a kleptocrat get their money out of Russia. But it could also help an ordinary Russian citizen protect their savings from Putin - it's harder for anyone to seize your money, nor can it be lost in a bank run. In the days before the invasion, there are many reports of ukrainians getting out with their crypto wallets, when they couldn't get money out of their banks.
Called up to change our reservation from SF to LHR to MEX to LHR, the nice lady offered us an upgrade to club class from premium economy for £210 each. I don't usually pay for club out of my own money but it seemed like too much of a steal to pass up. All confirmed too in the app so it definitely wasn't a scam by BA.
Finally, a glittering mote of redemptive light on a smoke choked battlefield. We are all absolutely thrilled for you.
It's like the Angel of Mons has appeared in a BA cabin crew outfit.
The one thing about Ukraine that we may be overlooking is that it does have a part of the population that is Russian. We don't really know what they think about the current situation. Are they happy about starting talks to join the EU and being conscripted to fight the invading Russian Army? How representative is the government and the public face of Ukraine that we see in the western media?
Apologies to peddle Kremlin talking points, but it does feel like we don't know very much about this country and make a lot of unexplored assumptions about it.
Only about 4% of Ukrainians voted for Rusophile political parties in the last elections - almost entirely in the far far East.
ok sure - but as recently as 2014 the country had a pro Russian president who was elected. As I recall he was ousted in a coup, over his reluctance to progress EU accession talks. It is said that a large part of his support was in the south and east - presumably areas that are now defacto controlled by Russia. Does that mean that the forces that bought Yanukovich to power, and are presumably sceptical about the EU, no longer exist in the rest of Ukraine? Have they really dropped to 4% of the country? I would be surprised if that is really the case.
I think you have to look at what has happened since Zelensky was elected in 2019. For a start he is an ethnic Russian. Funnily enough during the campaign his opponent and predecessor used Zelensky's Russian background to claim he would be Moscow's man in Ukraine. Once in power he removed immunity for Members of Parliament and introduced laws to remove the power of the Oligarchs in Ukraine. He also sacked all 15 regional Oblast leaders and heads of the main law enforcement agencies. Once that was all done he reached out to the separatists and tried to get a peace deal which included recognising the result of elections run by the separatists in their regions.
Basically from what I can see he has bent over backwards to do whatever he can to bridge any divide between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. I get the impression the people generally can see this and understand it which is why so many ethnic Russians are siding with Ukraine as their country against their cousins from the East.
Interesting. He's definetly earned his place in history; no doubt he will be studied for many years to come.
I am clear in my mind that Putin is a grave threat to Europe and that his regime needs to be overthrown. But as for Ukrainian politics, this is something I know nothing about.
Neither did I until last week. Since then I have been reading a lot about it, both ancient and modern. All of Zelensky's predecessors were pretty shitty people. Typical politicians able to push their own agendas in a country that was too used to either dictators or instability. He really does seem to stand out as one of those rare instances of an honest politician trying to do what is best for his people.
Of course he was only there for less than 3 years before this all blew up so who knows if he would have succumbed to the power trip as his political career continued.
In case people haven't seen it, in the first episode of Servant of the People, the tv show where Zelensky plays President, he gives a two minute speech about precisely what you say above. It's this speech that leads his fictional character to become president.
Starts at about 11:40, in case the link doesn't take you directly to the speech.
They should put it on global Netflix but as a nice touch get Ben Whishaw (Paddington voice that he dubbed) to do the dubbing for him in English.
Boulay. What was your username before you decided to reinvent yourself? I don't remember a poster quite as vulgar. Were you banned or did you just think it time for a change?
I was responding to one kind of vulgarity with another.
If it’s any help answering your question though, my username before my current “reinvention” at the same time you joined PB was a variation of my current username which I had used since 2007 - weirdly never had to be vulgar before then as nobody was weighing up the loss of buildings over people back then.
Well whoever is running this site this evening has taken your post down. but you're still here, Pity. They must have thought it wrote itself
That’s a great retort.
You probably should have tried something else like “your mum” or “you ok, hun?” Or even “cool story, bro”.
I expected something better from a creative.
You can never resist a cliche That should have told me who you were before your name change
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
He won't do it - He clearly wants every day of extra life available to him. It's too much of a risk and those around him would be telling him this and making it clear too. The foreign secretary saying "we don't want a nuclear war" is clearly a row-back on that and it tells. He won't pull the trigger.
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
He won't do it - He clearly wants every day of extra life available to him. It's too much of a risk and those around him would be telling him this and making it clear too. The foreign secretary saying "we don't want a nuclear war" is clearly a row-back on that and it tells. He won't pull the trigger.
He might but - will the trigger work?
This seems to me to be a classic bully-bullied scenario. Putin is bluffing - he may even do tactical nukes on Ukraine as an extra bluff, but he's not crazy - he's just really fucking desperate, losing and dying.
Called up to change our reservation from SF to LHR to MEX to LHR, the nice lady offered us an upgrade to club class from premium economy for £210 each. I don't usually pay for club out of my own money but it seemed like too much of a steal to pass up. All confirmed too in the app so it definitely wasn't a scam by BA.
Finally, a glittering mote of redemptive light on a smoke choked battlefield. We are all absolutely thrilled for you.
It's the small victories that keep us going Dura, to put it into your context it's like revving your wife's Datsun Sunny to the redline.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
He won't do it - He clearly wants every day of extra life available to him. It's too much of a risk and those around him would be telling him this and making it clear too. The foreign secretary saying "we don't want a nuclear war" is clearly a row-back on that and it tells. He won't pull the trigger.
He might but - will the trigger work?
This seems to me to be a classic bully-bullied scenario. Putin is bluffing - he may even do tactical nukes on Ukraine as an extra bluff, but he's not crazy - he's just really fucking desperate, losing and dying.
Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h Just spoke to @albats who reassuringly says Putin won't launch a nuclear war, because, "Look at the size of the table he got out for Macron - does it look like someone who is willing to die in a nuclear war?"
That's probably one of the most perceptive comments I've read over this saga. Very very true.
Don’t want to be a buzz kill but one can flip it around. A man so terrified of a virus and unwilling to do the rational thing, get vaccinated, and engage with the world, is exactly the kind of man who could see enemies everywhere and conclude there was no choice.
He won't do it - He clearly wants every day of extra life available to him. It's too much of a risk and those around him would be telling him this and making it clear too. The foreign secretary saying "we don't want a nuclear war" is clearly a row-back on that and it tells. He won't pull the trigger.
He might but - will the trigger work?
This seems to me to be a classic bully-bullied scenario. Putin is bluffing - he may even do tactical nukes on Ukraine as an extra bluff, but he's not crazy - he's just really fucking desperate, losing and dying.
I fear you are right about battlefield nukes.
He's lost authority. Lavrov ruled it out. Increasingly public signs of dissent. China out.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
In case leadership betting PBers missed it, Matt Hancock seems to have decided that the first days of WWIII would be a good time to try and resurrect a career by doing podcasts about how he fell in love and these things happen and it was all very painful and he has regrets about the hurt but you know that's life.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
In case leadership betting PBers missed it, Matt Hancock seems to have decided that the first days of WWIII would be a good time to try and resurrect a career by doing podcasts about how he fell in love and these things happen and it was all very painful and he has regrets about the hurt but you know that's life.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Perhaps these analysts have not being paying attention to the new world of social media, celebrity, personality-driven politics?
Johnson, for all his faults, spotted this in a nanosecond when he started phone calls to Zerensky and started telling aides and ministers that this was the guy, a brave guy, a guy who must be supported.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Perhaps these analysts have not being paying attention to the new world of social media, celebrity, personality-driven politics?
Johnson, for all his faults, spotted this in a nanosecond when he started phone calls to Zerensky and started telling aides and ministers that this was the guy, a brave guy, a guy who must be supported.
Indeed.
Zelenskyy's "I don't need transport, we need arms" line has changed the course of modern history.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
RU has been so poor that I am worrying I should be sniffing for a rat?
Is this all some complex chess move that us little people don't understand?
Or is Putin imperial war machine actually a tissue of lies?
China are laughing . Russia destroys its economy and then they have to cap in hand to China who can drive a hard bargain .
Yup: but on the other hand China is going to be running some new simulations on a range of Taiwan scenarios it hadn’t thought of.
Don't be daft. They have thought of them. That's why they've never come close to invasion in 73 years.
China's army (and air force) are significantly more impressive than Russia's.
But that doesn't get around the fact that Taiwan is a long way from China across the Ocean.
I have been gently trying to point out that the entire island is planned and prepped to resist an invasion for more than seven decades. Streets and even schools are designed specifically for a maximum kill zone. Then you have the highest mountains east of the Himalayas and rainforest.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Perhaps these analysts have not being paying attention to the new world of social media, celebrity, personality-driven politics?
Johnson, for all his faults, spotted this in a nanosecond when he started phone calls to Zerensky and started telling aides and ministers that this was the guy, a brave guy, a guy who must be supported.
The ersatz recognised the genuine ?
Rather more consequential I suspect, is Germany upending its politics of decades in response.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
That's what happens when your budget goes on upgrading your property portfolio and villas instead of your forces.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
How many of its senior staff live like multi-millionaires? Shoigu has a £12m villa and probably other properties.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
That's what happens when your budget goes on upgrading your property portfolio and villas instead of your forces.
It would be so joyous if Putin is undone by the corrupt greed of the very kleptocracy he has built up....
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Perhaps these analysts have not being paying attention to the new world of social media, celebrity, personality-driven politics?
Johnson, for all his faults, spotted this in a nanosecond when he started phone calls to Zerensky and started telling aides and ministers that this was the guy, a brave guy, a guy who must be supported.
The ersatz recognised the genuine ?
Rather more consequential I suspect, is Germany upending its politics of decades in response.
Germany were dragged last ones to realise what needed to be done. Kudos to them for doing the right thing, better late than never and it wasn't easy for them so they deserve praise ... But let's not pretend they were prime movers here.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
I think so too.
Dangerous as a failed state too though.
I wonder whether the obvious nervousness from the higher echelons of Putin's military about this bonkers adventure was driven by the feeling that their potemkin army would be found out?
Early days, but if this continues as one long fuck up punctured by the odd war crime to make Putin feel happy then it is going take a long time to recover.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Is it the best way for his advisors, who can't get anywhere near him, to kill him?
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
While Russians wouldn't fight like this against NATO, the errors have been catastrophic and should discard the idea of Russia as a serious conventional military force. How many night vision goggles have we seen vs the number of civilian radios used by the Russian military. Shoygu replacing Serdyukov back in the teens cemented this, Serdyukov aimed to maximise Russian defence expenditure effectiveness, Shoygu seeks to minimise Oligarch complaints.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
Someone, can't recall who on WATO today said it was 11.5.%. I was very surprised. But maybe I misheard?
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
No mention of the UK in that article...
Should there be?
It should have mentioned how Brexit has thwarted, well, everything. Obviously.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
Someone, can't recall who on WATO today said it was 11.5.%. I was very surprised. But maybe I misheard?
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
Russia isn't even going to win the invasion, let alone the peace afterwards.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
At 4.3% of GDP Russia has quite a high expenditure on defence compared with the nations it is up against. You would think its Armed Forces would be relatively well equiped, but it seems they are not getting much bang for their buck.
Someone, can't recall who on WATO today said it was 11.5.%. I was very surprised. But maybe I misheard?
Probably 11.5% of government spending.
Ah. That would explain it. That's a lot. Can't believe your average Josef finds that value for money. But hey ho.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
Imagine if we'd been able to supply 1939 Poland with 2000 NLAWs..
Do you think Putin's watched this? In my view the first episode sums up Putin and his lot and what he's projected onto other countries in his sphere in the past in a nutshell.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
Imagine if we'd been able to supply 1939 Poland with 2000 NLAWs..
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
The difference is that Poland weren't the only theatre in WWII, and that all parties in WWII were fully stretched with their military industrial complex.
Russia has sent their full might to Ukraine and it's not enough ... But Ukraine has plenty of reinforcement potential from NATO while Russia has no reinforcement potential.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
You’re both right, BUT I think Russia would like to be seen as a peer of the USA, which would still be on day five of an air campaign to dismantle the armed forces, and could likely take Kiev with no (or almost no) casualties.
This has shown it is not a peer. This is more like us or France trying an invasion alone. Any remaining superpower mystique has gone. Win or lose, it’s their Suez/Algeria.
Another good article by Applebaum https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ … As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Perhaps these analysts have not being paying attention to the new world of social media, celebrity, personality-driven politics?
Johnson, for all his faults, spotted this in a nanosecond when he started phone calls to Zerensky and started telling aides and ministers that this was the guy, a brave guy, a guy who must be supported.
The ersatz recognised the genuine ?
Rather more consequential I suspect, is Germany upending its politics of decades in response.
Germany were dragged last ones to realise what needed to be done. Kudos to them for doing the right thing, better late than never and it wasn't easy for them so they deserve praise ... But let's not pretend they were prime movers here.
I’m not pretending anything. Just making the point that their response will be in the long run of rather more consequence for both themselves and the future of Europe.
The article I linked isn’t about awarding points for various countries responses to the invasion, but rather about how Ukraine has changed those countries.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
But you’re comparing what was the intentional start of an all out war with what was intended to be a rapid decapitation of a former vassal state. Russia is not mobilised for the former.
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
There is a small but not negligible chance that Putin might be remembered for the most monumental military fuck up since the Battle of Cannae.
Still a bit bemused how badly it has gone for Russia, although maybe that's a by-product of today's 24-hour news media. Poland took a month to fall in WW2.
I'll tell you what amazes me: it's been some of the monumentally stupid things the Russians did.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
Yes, certainly a lot of blunders. It's surprising, you'd have thought an invasion of Ukraine would be one of the things they would have planned very carefully.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Well, Poland was invaded from East and West, so it is a *little* different.
Not on day five. My point is that everyone is suggesting this is a disaster for Russia, when they would probably consider Poland to have been a walkover in WW2.
It's a fair point: the Germans registered 45,000 casualties and lost close to 1,000 tanks in the invasion of Poland.
The difference is that Poland weren't the only theatre in WWII, and that all parties in WWII were fully stretched with their military industrial complex.
Russia has sent their full might to Ukraine and it's not enough ... But Ukraine has plenty of reinforcement potential from NATO while Russia has no reinforcement potential.
Completely different to WWII.
Have they sent their full might, and did Germany send their full might against Poland in WW2? Yes, of course the circumstances are different. My point is that in the modern day we expect this sort of thing to be over very quickly. Poland took over a month to fall.
We can't defend you because you didn't sign up in time.
Those signatures are more important than all of your lives.
Goodbye Ukraine.
At least we didn't find out if Putin might have tried to instigate a nuclear war, and his orders might have been obeyed by many different chains of people, and his nuclear weapons might have worked.
US intel is briefing that Kiev will fall in 4-6 weeks, but that an insurgency will last ten years or more.
Putin will be gone very long before then.
Maybe.
Russian strategy looks to be to hold the east and south under a puppet government.
Ukranian resolve, and Western sanctions, are more costly than Putin expected. This is taking longer than planned.
But this ends either with Putin’s ouster, or a new Cold War with a de facto NATO frontier down the Dnieper and a Russia increasingly supplicant within a Chinese led economic order.
US intel is briefing that Kiev will fall in 4-6 weeks, but that an insurgency will last ten years or more.
Putin will be gone very long before then.
Maybe.
Russian strategy looks to be to hold the east and south under a puppet government.
Ukranian resolve, and Western sanctions, are more costly than Putin expected. This is taking longer than planned.
But this ends either with Putin’s ouster, or a new Cold War with a de facto NATO frontier down the Dnieper and a Russia increasingly supplicant within a Chinese led economic order.
While Zelenskyy is likely to get martyred, moments like this will project a Churchillian legacy across Europe. In 200 years he'll be the Wellington, Gladstone, or Victoria of his age.
BREAKING: BBC reports that the local government body in the Gagarinsky District of Moscow has called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a 'disaster' that is leading to the 'impoverishment of the country'
New definition of ridiculous: believing that the UK should have a totally open door policy on refugees from Ukraine without any checks whatsoever. Tip: there are still bad people out there who might take advantage of such an offer. This is the same type of idealism that led to Germany shutting down its nuclear power stations and coming to rely on Russian gas for most of its energy needs, which is one of the things that led to the current crisis.
I hope that Zelenskyy is not martyred and indeed I don’t think he will be.
Ukrainian forces will shortly (a week?) need to withdraw west of the Kharkov to Crimea line, ceding those renegade eastern oblasts to full Russia control.
US intel suggests another month for Kiev, and if and when Kiev falls id expect and hope Zelenskyy to flee to Lviv or even Poland.
Comments
- Joshua Foss: Enough bombs have been planted in this building to stop all the clocks in the hemisphere.
- Vice President: You'll die with us.
- Joshua Foss: Could be.
- Mrs. Baldwin: I don't think anyone with manicured fingernails wearing a ten-thousand-dollar wristwatch is planning on blowing himself up.
The number of refugees Poland is already accepting is astonishing - and depending on the event of the next few weeks that might be only a small fraction of the numbers to come.
So the story goes, some of guys who got fired in the Iran-Contra thing liberated the money. So when the KGB types tried to launch the coup against Gorbachev, they found the piggy bank was empty.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-says-it-halted-all-product-sales-russia-2022-03-01/
This is precisely what is happening as the West stun China and Putin by its level of blowback and determination.
Sarah Rainsford
@sarahrainsford
·
3h
Now Apple stopped sales in Russia: try to buy anything online and you get a message that delivery isn’t possible (via BBC Russian service)
===
That's it. The RU people will rise up tomorrow. At least the under 60 year olds will anyway.
Paul McNamara
@M_PaulMcNamara
Russia just announced it's not paying coupons to foreigners on local government bonds.
https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1498722175792160780
Bitcoin is the internet for money. It's permissionless, censorship resistant and decentralised. The internet has wikipedia, twitter and PB, but it also has reams of child porn, instructions on how to build a bomb, and conspiracy theorists.
Bitcoin is the same - it's neutral as to who uses it and what they do with it. So yes, it could theoretically help a kleptocrat get their money out of Russia. But it could also help an ordinary Russian citizen protect their savings from Putin - it's harder for anyone to seize your money, nor can it be lost in a bank run. In the days before the invasion, there are many reports of ukrainians getting out with their crypto wallets, when they couldn't get money out of their banks.
BAYRAKTAR TB2 (Turkish UAV) Official Song (English Subtitles)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGVZHLOV60E
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMLAyrk5r/
If it moves like a default, and quacks like a default...
The price for drawing with Putin is Ukraine.
For starters.
But why has a 40 mile column not got them buzzing like bees around a honeypot? It’s odd.
Economic sanctions will continue to be used to contain Putin after his Ukraine invasion, not military force
- perhaps in negotiations, giving them a chance to turn round and go home - or else.....
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Valerii Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces stated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has slowed down.
According to Zaluzhny, Russian forces have lost their tactical initiative and have been forced to mobilize reserves to continue their offensive.
12:09 AM · Mar 2, 2022· Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498812581158567941
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.
The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498814379197927424
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60579640
That's why they've never come close to invasion in 73 years.
I don't think so.
Humiliating, absolutely humiliating for Russia.
And don't forget, the longer this goes on, the less power Russia has. Their military/industrial complex was all geared towards overwhelming power to blitzkrieg and make it a fait accompli. Russia even before the sanctions was a poorer nation than Italy, let alone the combined economies of NATO which are reinforcing Ukraine.
NATO can keep reinforcing Ukraine with munitions and arms with a virtual blank cheque. Russia has nothing: This is it. Decrepit thirty year old Soviet hand-me-downs that were obsolete when the Soviet Union fell and nothing more behind the curtain.
Russia is dead as a world power.
But that doesn't get around the fact that Taiwan is a long way from China across the Ocean.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/
… As it turns out, nations are not pieces in a game of Risk. They do not, as some academics have long imagined, have eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals. Nor do human beings always react the way they are supposed to react. Last week, nobody who was analyzing the coming war in Ukraine imagined that the personal bravery of the Ukrainian president and his emotive calls for sovereignty and democracy could alter the calculations of foreign ministers, bank directors, business executives, and thousands of ordinary people. Few imagined that the Russian president’s sinister television appearances and brutal orders could alter, in just a few days, international perceptions of Russia.…
Massive lay.
Are we sure the cargo actually made it onto the ship?
Dangerous as a failed state too though.
On day one, they captured Kyiv airfield with paratroopers. Elite troops on the ground.
And then they were all dead and captured, and two troop planes with 100+ soldiers on board were shot done.
Monumentally stupid.
And then there was the seaborne assault in the South West of the country. They came ashore. They were killed or captured. They sailed off again.
Why?
TMI. 🤢
Johnson, for all his faults, spotted this in a nanosecond when he started phone calls to Zerensky and started telling aides and ministers that this was the guy, a brave guy, a guy who must be supported.
Zelenskyy's "I don't need transport, we need arms" line has changed the course of modern history.
The current state of play doesn't look all that dissimilar from the invasion of Poland on day five. Expectations are clearly a lot different in the modern era!
Is this all some complex chess move that us little people don't understand?
Or is Putin imperial war machine actually a tissue of lies?
Streets and even schools are designed specifically for a maximum kill zone.
Then you have the highest mountains east of the Himalayas and rainforest.
Rather more consequential I suspect, is Germany upending its politics of decades in response.
Early days, but if this continues as one long fuck up punctured by the odd war crime to make Putin feel happy then it is going take a long time to recover.
That would explain it.
That's a lot. Can't believe your average Josef finds that value for money. But hey ho.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ-3YwVQV0M&list=PLJo-obgJSqxbzEDvUHX9jiX2DXWGSvv0T
Do you think Putin's watched this? In my view the first episode sums up Putin and his lot and what he's projected onto other countries in his sphere in the past in a nutshell.
Russia has sent their full might to Ukraine and it's not enough ... But Ukraine has plenty of reinforcement potential from NATO while Russia has no reinforcement potential.
Completely different to WWII.
This has shown it is not a peer. This is more like us or France trying an invasion alone. Any remaining superpower mystique has gone. Win or lose, it’s their Suez/Algeria.
Just making the point that their response will be in the long run of rather more consequence for both themselves and the future of Europe.
The article I linked isn’t about awarding points for various countries responses to the invasion, but rather about how Ukraine has changed those countries.
https://www.cityam.com/conservative-mp-bob-seely-names-and-shames-amoral-lawyers-working-for-putins-henchmen/
Link to video therein.
Russia is not mobilised for the former.
Incidentally, there’s an interesting article on Russian logistical limitations here, which possibly accounts for their problems.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
Those signatures are more important than all of your lives.
Goodbye Ukraine.
At least we didn't find out if Putin might have tried to instigate a nuclear war, and his orders might have been obeyed by many different chains of people, and his nuclear weapons might have worked.
But sleep well.
And slava ukraini.
Russian strategy looks to be to hold the east and south under a puppet government.
Ukranian resolve, and Western sanctions, are more costly than Putin expected. This is taking longer than planned.
But this ends either with Putin’s ouster, or a new Cold War with a de facto NATO frontier down the Dnieper and a Russia increasingly supplicant within a Chinese led economic order.
While Zelenskyy is likely to get martyred, moments like this will project a Churchillian legacy across Europe. In 200 years he'll be the Wellington, Gladstone, or Victoria of his age.
Dissent gradually breaking out in more pockets.
Ukrainian forces will shortly (a week?) need to withdraw west of the Kharkov to Crimea line, ceding those renegade eastern oblasts to full Russia control.
US intel suggests another month for Kiev, and if and when Kiev falls id expect and hope Zelenskyy to flee to Lviv or even Poland.