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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hope

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. D, indeed.

    Lloyds is a particular open goal for everyone who isn't a red. Brown brokered the deal to merge Lloyds TSB and HBOS (brilliantly giving us 2/4 bad banks instead of 2/5), now Miliband, himself a Brownite, wants to break up the big bank Labour helped create.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I seem to remember YouGov doing an "issues" poll, and finding 24% saying that EU policy would affect the way they voted.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    ONS report Dec 13 retail sales up 5.3% on Dec 2012

    Sensational.

    Good news for renters too as rents fell 1% last month. I wonder if its possible to tell whether this is due to the Housing Benefit reforms or more renters being able to buy.

    "The cost of renting a home in England and Wales fell by 1% in December compared with the previous month, a survey suggests.

    The annual rise in the costs for tenants also slowed to 1.5%, according to LSL Property Services.

    Seven out of 10 regions saw rents fall on a monthly basis, with the sharpest fall in the south east of England (down 2%)."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25759847
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    SMukesh said:

    antifrank said:

    If the big announcement is indeed the idea of breaking up RBS and Lloyds, the problem with this politically is that any benefits of it are far too long term. The energy price freeze had immediate potential benefits in the eyes of many voters.

    This policy would be a bit too abstract for most voters.

    I completely agree.With elections next year and Euros shortly where is the speech for Labour`s vote tally to go up.

    Instead we seem to be getting another wonky speech from Miliband.
    It's a speech for when the tories start to ramp up the "don't let labour ruin it again" attacks in early 2015. As you say it's utility now is questionable to say the least, but little Ed has no choice but to address the issue at some point since the banking crash under labour is going to be front and centre come the election with the tories hammering labour on it 24/7.

    He'll do something big on the minimum wage at a later date now thanks to Osbrowne, but he still seems to be paying far too much attention to the Blairites who love this policy wonk stuff.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."
  • Is Lord Ashcroft ranked as being a more or less influential person aged 50+ on Twitter than OGH ? - I think we should be told.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning. Saw this on Twitter. Not sure if it's a new poll:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 1h
    Survation poll. CON 30% LAB 34% LDEM 12% UKIP 18%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    Which one upsets you the most or are they all about the same ?
  • On topic: I greatly admire both Mike and Lord Ashcroft, but on this occasion Mike is right and Lord Ashcroft is wrong. In particular, Mike's third point is absolutely decisive.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited January 2014
    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    The first shouldnt surprise them - it's always been Tory policy to stay in the EU. The latter two are significant u-turns but the introduction of the minimum wage has shown that the scaremongering about it (2 million jobs lost etc.) was tosh and attitudes towards homosexuality have changed significantly to the point that maintaining their old positions (the ones they held even just 10 years ago) would be electorally damaging.

    Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited January 2014

    On topic: I greatly admire both Mike and Lord Ashcroft, but on this occasion Mike is right and Lord Ashcroft is wrong. In particular, Mike's third point is absolutely decisive.

    Europe seems to make certain people lose all political savvy .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TGOHF said:

    Oz to win this ODI - betfair seems to have crashed otherwise would have put all three kidneys on it.

    Still confident ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Many would. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. Ask any Labour supporter from the 1960, 1970s or 1980s about PFI and most of New Labour's policies - they would not think they are 'Labour' in any shape or form.

    Times change. The public change, and political parties have to try to mirror those social changes.

    If the Cosnervatives are getting rid of the loonies (and I would count anyone who is now against gay marriage as a loony), then so be it.

    Let them sink in their own cesspool of filth.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    Well, lowering the gay age of consent, and almost all the big pro-EU steps have come from Conservative governments. And raising the minimum wage is easily spun as pro-market reform (since benefits are can be seen as distorting the market by subsidising bad employers) or as reducing benefits-dependency of low-paid workers.
  • BTW, has any journalist bothered to ask a Labour front-bencher whether Ed's latest lunacy is compatible with EU law?
  • isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Twenty years ago, the Tory government reduced the gay age of consent from 21 to 18.

    34 years ago it was a Tory government that legalised gay sex in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    Lady Thatcher voted for Leo Abse's bill to decriminalise homosexuality in the 60s.

    The Tories have a strange record on gay rights.

    We're responsible for some of the worst laws when it comes to the gays, we're also responsible for some of the biggest changes.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited January 2014
    Neil said:

    Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties.

    And of course is the absolute hallmark of Conservatism:

    In a progressive country change is constant; and the great question is not whether you should resist change which is inevitable, but whether that change should be carried out in deference to the manners, the customs, the laws and the traditions of a people, or whether it should be carried out in deference to abstract principles, and arbitrary and general doctrines.

    Benjamin Disraeli, 1867
  • BTW, has any journalist bothered to ask a Labour front-bencher whether Ed's latest lunacy is compatible with EU law?

    The Times have raised that point.

    There's also a fundamental point which Ed hasn't also considered, as we've seen with the Lloyds/TSB split, what happens when people don't want to leave a bank but are forced to, they open up a new account at the old bank.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    Which one upsets you the most or are they all about the same ?
    The EU probably is the only one I could honestly say upsets me.

    That's not really the point. I never voted Conservative in the first place.

    The point really is that tribal posters will cheer almost anything their party does, even when it is a policy that, if the party opposite suggested, they would criticise. Seeing as this is a forum that holds little or no sway in regard to the wider public, you would think the comments would be more independently critical of the party supported, rather than toe the party line in the way (most) MPs are forced to in order to keep onside for job security.

    My personal opinion isn't the point. But I feel sure that had Gordon Brown won the last election and introduced gay marriage, Conservative posters would have been saying it was a distraction at a time of economic struggle, and likewise be finding reasons now to say the minimum wage should be left as it is, or possibly reduced.

    It would be interesting if posters could "take the Pepsi challenge" and say whether they agreed with a policy without knowing who had suggested it



  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oz to win this ODI - betfair seems to have crashed otherwise would have put all three kidneys on it.

    Still confident ?
    Oz still only 5/2 - poor value :D
  • And of course is the absolute hallmark of Conservatism:

    In a progressive country change is constant; and the great question is not whether you should resist change which is inevitable, but whether that change should be carried out in deference to the manners, the customs, the laws and the traditions of a people, or whether it should be carried out in deference to abstract principles, and arbitrary and general doctrines.

    Benjamin Disraeli, 1867

    As that great liberal Mr Justice Astbury is reputed to have said: "Reform? Reform? Are things not bad enough already?"
  • Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 2m

    New Populus VI figures: Lab 40 (+2); Cons 33 (=); LD 13 (+1); UKIP 9 (=); Oth 6 (-1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140117
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    JonathanD said:

    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    ONS report Dec 13 retail sales up 5.3% on Dec 2012

    Sensational.

    Good news for renters too as rents fell 1% last month. I wonder if its possible to tell whether this is due to the Housing Benefit reforms or more renters being able to buy.

    "The cost of renting a home in England and Wales fell by 1% in December compared with the previous month, a survey suggests.

    The annual rise in the costs for tenants also slowed to 1.5%, according to LSL Property Services.

    Seven out of 10 regions saw rents fall on a monthly basis, with the sharpest fall in the south east of England (down 2%)."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25759847
    As capital values of residential property rise above the rate of inflation, rents are likely to fall to keep overall yields from property rental operations reasonably stable.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:


    The EU probably is the only one I could honestly say upsets me.

    When were the Tories in favour of leaving the EU though?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    David Schneider ✔ @davidschneider

    Tories unimpressed by Labour plan for new banks as they've already created 500 new banks themselves. Yes they're all food banks but still...

    Funny!

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    isam said:



    My personal opinion isn't the point. But I feel sure that had Gordon Brown won the last election and introduced gay marriage, Conservative posters would have been saying it was a distraction at a time of economic struggle, and likewise be finding reasons now to say the minimum wage should be left as it is, or possibly reduced.

    Plenty of tory MPs said as much at the time and the majority of them opposed it.
    'Drop gay marriage Bill and heed ordinary Tories'

    Ordinary Conservatives cannot understand why the leadership is being distracted by the issue of gay marriage, and are being treated as "pariahs" for expressing their doubts about a change in the law, says David Burrowes

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10066305/Drop-gay-marriage-Bill-and-heed-ordinary-Tories.html


    Blow for Cameron as 128 Tory MPs vote against gay marriage

    Tory opponents of the bill outnumber supporters as just 117 Conservative MPs vote in favour.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/blow-cameron-128-tory-mps-vote-against-gay-marriage
    I suspect a quite few tory MPs will be less than pleased with Osbrowne appearing to adopt the TUC, labour and lib dem proposals on the minimum wage, but we shall see.

    The Cameroon leadership and it's spinners can position and triangulate as much as they like but if they can't take the rest of their party with them then what follows is inevitable.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,955
    JonathanD said:

    The breakup of Lloyds TSB into Lloyds and TSB upset plenty of people who suddenly found they had no local branch.

    I was relieved when after the recent divestment I ended up remaining with Lloyds Bank and a local branch. I do not want another round of that nonsense. I'm capable of deciding who I wish to bank with, I do not need Ed Miliband deciding for me.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited January 2014
    @JonathanD @glw I have kept changing banks to get away from Lloyds, but keep finding myself back in their clutches. Sod's law, the recent divestment left me with them.
  • My football tips for the week.

    Man City to score exactly 5 goals against Cardiff 13/2, and 6 or more at 15/2

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-cardiff-city/total-home-goals

    Villa to beat Liverpool at 14/1

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-aston-villa/winner

    and

    Suarez to score two or more goals against the Villa 7/4

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-aston-villa/to-score-2-or-more-goals

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758

    On topic: I greatly admire both Mike and Lord Ashcroft, but on this occasion Mike is right and Lord Ashcroft is wrong. In particular, Mike's third point is absolutely decisive.

    On this rare occasion, I agree with Richard. Mike makes very good points as to why Labour will probably not pledge an in/out referendum between 2015 and 2020. They could instead suggest that at the 2015 election, there is another vote added to the ballot, asking people whether they want an in/out referendum on EU membership to be held in say May 2017. Whether the coalition parties would support legislation allowing this additional ballot is debateable.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @TSWE - My football tips for the week.

    After Murray, are these predictions - or warnings to others to stay well clear? : )
  • @TSWE - My football tips for the week.

    After Murray, are these predictions - or warnings to others to stay well clear? : )

    That was a patriotic bet, plus, it was my first losing bet of the week, I mean they can't all be winners, even the 100/1 ones.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626


    Villa to beat Liverpool at 14/1

    o_O
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, Labour will only pledge a referendum on the EU if it feels obliged to in order to secure power. This is finely balanced, I'd say. On the one hand, it will disappoint former Lib Dems who are currently nestling in the Labour column. On the other hand, it might appeal to some who are currently nestling in the UKIP column. Labour can't yet be sure that they can get to being largest party without such a pledge.

    In practice, I expect that indecision will be final and a pledge will not be made. It will be rationalised on the basis that our host sets out above.

  • Villa to beat Liverpool at 14/1

    o_O
    As a Liverpool fan, if Villa do win, like they did win last season, I'll have some consolation.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626


    Villa to beat Liverpool at 14/1

    o_O
    As a Liverpool fan, if Villa do win, like they did win last season, I'll have some consolation.
    So this is your Murray bet of the day then?

    The way we've been playing at home this season I can't see Villa getting anything.
    Will Sturridge be starting? The way he and Suarez ended the last game was awesome.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).

    Ed will want to bend over and sign up for all these treaty changes - wont be good for him if he is in power - will he do a Brown and sneak in to sign when nobody is looking ?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    Most definitely good but surprising news
    JackW said:

    ONS report Dec 13 retail sales up 5.3% on Dec 2012

    ONS's retail sales have very much surprised on the upside.

    Key findings from the bulletin:

    • Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed strong growth in December 2013, increasing by 5.3% compared with December 2012. Comparing the 12 months of 2013 with the 12 months of 2012 the quantity bought in 2013 increased by 1.6% compared with 2012.

    • Non-seasonally adjusted data show that small stores experienced higher growth year-on-year than large stores with the amount spent in small stores increasing by 8.1% compared with 2.6% in large stores. Non-food stores provided the main contribution to the growth in the amount spent at small stores.

    • The underlying pattern in the data as suggested by the three month-on-three month movement shows much weaker growth (0.4%) than suggested by the year-on-year increase (5.3%). Contractions in the quantity bought in food stores and petrol stations continued to offset growth in the quantity bought in non-food stores and non-store retailing.

    • On the month the picture is one of strong growth with the quantity bought increasing by 2.6%. All store types saw an increase in the quantity bought but perhaps most notable is the record month-on-month increase in the quantity bought at department stores of 8.7%.

    • In December 2013, the amount spent in the retail industry increased by 6.1% compared with December 2012 and by 2.6% compared with November 2013. Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the average weekly spend in the retail industry in December 2013 was £8.8 billion compared with £8.5 billion in December 2012 and £7.5 billion in November 2013.

    • Internet sales, which are seasonally adjusted for the first time in this release, increased by 11.8% in December 2013 compared with December 2012 and by 1.8% compared with November 2013.

    • Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the proportion of sales made online decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 11.8% of all retail sales (excluding automotive fuel).


    Some very odd and counter-intuitive stats here.

    Smalll stores gain share at the expense of the major supermarkets?

    Proportion of online sales to total retail sales down?

    December sales generally account for around 40% of a year's total. Were December Sales so good that 1.6% year to date annual growth, with December 2013 on December 2012 up 5.3%, that they compensated for just 0.4% Q4 2013 on Q3 2012 growth? If so, October and November sales must have been disastrous which is not reflected in ONS's (or other reporters') earlier bulletins.

    So these stats may well be revised in later releases, mostly I suspect to iron out monthly fluctuations.

    The fact that the figures show strong volume growth (as opposed to value) bodes well for Q4 2013 GDP figures due next week.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    @TSWE - My football tips for the week.

    After Murray, are these predictions - or warnings to others to stay well clear? : )

    That was a patriotic bet, plus, it was my first losing bet of the week, I mean they can't all be winners, even the 100/1 ones.
    Just a gentle ribbing TSE - well done on your 100/1 ;)

  • Villa to beat Liverpool at 14/1

    o_O
    As a Liverpool fan, if Villa do win, like they did win last season, I'll have some consolation.
    So this is your Murray bet of the day then?

    The way we've been playing at home this season I can't see Villa getting anything.
    Will Sturridge be starting? The way he and Suarez ended the last game was awesome.
    He's fit to start, I suspect he'll be on the bench again.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Blimey. England to win cricket match in Australia shock!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).

    Ed will want to bend over and sign up for all these treaty changes - wont be good for him if he is in power - will he do a Brown and sneak in to sign when nobody is looking ?
    Dave will be far more keen than Ed to sign up to a new EU treaty.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,631



    What we can say is that Ford has dramatically reduced their car making in the UK since we have been in the EU, whilst Honda and Nissan have massively increased theirs.

    We heard similar dire warnings from companies about not joining the Euro. They were wrong then, weren't they?

    Hang on! You can't have it both ways. On that basis, you can argue Ford reduced their manufacturing because of us not being in the Euro.

    If you look at gross investment in Europe in car manufacturing in the post 1999 period, you will find that the UK got a substantially lower proportion than they did in the 1980-1999 period.

    Is that anything to do with the Euro? I'd say it's very unlikely.

    However, I would argue that leaving the Single Economic Area (and I think this is an important distinction - it is not about leaving the EU, but the SEA/EEA) would be bad for car manufacturing prospects in the UK

    Let us assume for a moment that companies are economically rational entities.

    If you are making an investment decision for a thirty year period, you *hate* uncertainty. That means that during a period when it is unclear whether Britain will remain part of the SEA or not, one would avoid making additional investments in plants which depend on being part of the SEA. So, say Ford is deciding where to expand Durateq capacity, and the numbers stack up equally well in Krakow, Liverpool and the Basque country. In two of those three you can be absolutely certain about the terms of trade between, and the times to ship product to, the country of the final assembly plant (say Ford's Cologne plant).

    If UKIP was committed to membership of the SEA - as, for example Norway is - then I think that issue would be much less of an issue.

    However, it is not clear (to me at least) that is UKIP's long-term desire for the UK's trading position. Because of the structure of the SEA/EEA, and free movement of goods and services within that, you are essentially signed up to the Common Customs Tariff and do not get to have much latitude in your external trade agreements. That would make that a non-starter for Socrates, for example.
  • @TSWE - My football tips for the week.

    After Murray, are these predictions - or warnings to others to stay well clear? : )

    That was a patriotic bet, plus, it was my first losing bet of the week, I mean they can't all be winners, even the 100/1 ones.
    Just a gentle ribbing TSE - well done on your 100/1 ;)
    I know, I also know, this purple patch will be over, and I'll be back to tipping more rubbish than a forklift truck.

    However, given my current form, I'm tempted to back a Tory Majority in 2015.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).

    Ed will want to bend over and sign up for all these treaty changes - wont be good for him if he is in power - will he do a Brown and sneak in to sign when nobody is looking ?
    Dave will be far more keen than Ed to sign up to a new EU treaty.
    Well Dave will only sign one after a referendum. Ed wont go to the country.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331


    Villa to beat Liverpool at 14/1

    o_O
    As a Liverpool fan, if Villa do win, like they did win last season, I'll have some consolation.
    I expect Liverpool to win, but 14/1 on Villa is astonishing odds.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,631
    AveryLP said:

    Most definitely good but surprising news

    Annualised 4Q GDP numbers for the UK could be as high as 3.5%...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    SMukesh said:

    David Schneider ✔ @davidschneider

    Tories unimpressed by Labour plan for new banks as they've already created 500 new banks themselves. Yes they're all food banks but still...

    Funny!

    How dare you! Food banks are no laughing matter, as Labour said a couple of weeks ago.

    http://order-order.com/2013/12/19/shamed-pictures-of-mps-laughing-in-food-bank-debate/
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).

    Ed will want to bend over and sign up for all these treaty changes - wont be good for him if he is in power - will he do a Brown and sneak in to sign when nobody is looking ?
    Dave will be far more keen than Ed to sign up to a new EU treaty.
    Well Dave will only sign one after a referendum. Ed wont go to the country.
    In certain circumstances Ed would have to go to the country on treaty change. Legislation on the statute book requires one if it is judged to involve transferring powers to the EU, for example.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    The first shouldnt surprise them - it's always been Tory policy to stay in the EU. The latter two are significant u-turns but the introduction of the minimum wage has shown that the scaremongering about it (2 million jobs lost etc.) was tosh and attitudes towards homosexuality have changed significantly to the point that maintaining their old positions (the ones they held even just 10 years ago) would be electorally damaging.

    Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties.
    "Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties"

    Is it? Do you mean in order to win votes or for the good of the country?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,631
    Random economics news...

    Japanese consumer confidence is now lower than when Abenomics was first announced...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).

    Ed will want to bend over and sign up for all these treaty changes - wont be good for him if he is in power - will he do a Brown and sneak in to sign when nobody is looking ?
    Dave will be far more keen than Ed to sign up to a new EU treaty.
    Well Dave will only sign one after a referendum. Ed wont go to the country.
    In certain circumstances Ed would have to go to the country on treaty change. Legislation on the statute book requires one if it is judged to involve transferring powers to the EU, for example.
    No chance - Ed will weasel out - he knows he would lose.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    The first shouldnt surprise them - it's always been Tory policy to stay in the EU. The latter two are significant u-turns but the introduction of the minimum wage has shown that the scaremongering about it (2 million jobs lost etc.) was tosh and attitudes towards homosexuality have changed significantly to the point that maintaining their old positions (the ones they held even just 10 years ago) would be electorally damaging.

    Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties.
    "Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties"

    Is it? Do you mean in order to win votes or for the good of the country?
    Obviously the former.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    The wildcard on Europe would be any treaty changes that might crop up over the next few years. Though the good news for Ed (and the bad news for Dave as it makes his renegotiation really difficult) is that noone seems to want another EU treaty for the next few years (because voters would likely vote it down).

    Ed will want to bend over and sign up for all these treaty changes - wont be good for him if he is in power - will he do a Brown and sneak in to sign when nobody is looking ?
    Dave will be far more keen than Ed to sign up to a new EU treaty.
    Well Dave will only sign one after a referendum. Ed wont go to the country.
    In certain circumstances Ed would have to go to the country on treaty change. Legislation on the statute book requires one if it is judged to involve transferring powers to the EU, for example.
    No chance - Ed will weasel out - he knows he would lose.
    I'd propose a bet of some kind but the event (there being a treaty change and it transferring powers to the EU) is far too remote a possibility to bother about.
  • TSE quick bet on a Swansea - Aussie double...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I view comrade Ed's banker bashing with interest.

    I wonder if the public will be quite so supportive of the dear leader if Osborne decided to give all those luvly Lloyds shares to taxpayers ahead of 2015.

    Lloyds are around 84bp today.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Many would. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. Ask any Labour supporter from the 1960, 1970s or 1980s about PFI and most of New Labour's policies - they would not think they are 'Labour' in any shape or form.

    Times change. The public change, and political parties have to try to mirror those social changes.

    If the Cosnervatives are getting rid of the loonies (and I would count anyone who is now against gay marriage as a loony), then so be it.

    Let them sink in their own cesspool of filth.
    Judging by polling, most people who voted Conservative in 2010 opposed gay marriage. Are you really saying the Conservatives should wish to get rid of such voters?

  • TSE quick bet on a Swansea - Aussie double...

    I'm already on Australia.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Start the car - Ozzies are going to win.
  • TSE quick bet on a Swansea - Aussie double...

    I'm already on Australia.
    At 7-1 pre the punultimate over?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    The first shouldnt surprise them - it's always been Tory policy to stay in the EU. The latter two are significant u-turns but the introduction of the minimum wage has shown that the scaremongering about it (2 million jobs lost etc.) was tosh and attitudes towards homosexuality have changed significantly to the point that maintaining their old positions (the ones they held even just 10 years ago) would be electorally damaging.

    Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties.
    "Changing with the times is generally a good thing for political parties"

    Is it? Do you mean in order to win votes or for the good of the country?
    Obviously the former.
    I honestly didn't know, wasn't obvious, apologies
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Patrick said:

    I can't imagine what upheaval a third place finish in the Euros would cause inside Labour

    Whoever comes 3rd is going to have some serious 'splaining to do. Dave will have the excuse/comfort that this is an EU protest vote and will have a route out via red meat and 'vote UKIP, get Blob' messaging. Miliblob's excuses will be harder to find and believe.

    We'll also see across Europe a significant shift towards the anti-EU vote. I expect FN in France, Wilders in NL, Grillo in Italy all to do really well.

    There will be a big shift towards Eurosceptic parties in the EU Parliamentary elections. However, you can expect the Socialist and Christian Democratic parties to sink their differences, so there should be little change in the direction of travel.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited January 2014
    Looking forward to the left's analysis of the stunning retail sales numbers after claims poor supermarket numbers were a 'barometer of how the electorate is feeling' about the current government.

    There was plenty of gloating about the supermarket numbers as a proxy for the whole market, even though many of us did tell our labour friends to factor in big changes in how the electorate shops.

    They wouldn't listen, and once again they look like a bunch of seven-year olds on the economy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Aus + 4.75
    Eng +0

    12 from 6 with Bresnan to bowl :P
  • TSE quick bet on a Swansea - Aussie double...

    I'm already on Australia.
    At 7-1 pre the punultimate over?
    Topping up.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Only a wicket for England will do it now.
  • Time to invest in my Aussie winnings on Swansea beating Spurs.
  • Called it...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Well that was profitable.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    How did they win that?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Survation: Survation/Sky News: Westminster VI, Fieldwork 14-15th Jan (chge vs 01/05) CON 30% (-1%) LAB 34% -1%) LD 12% (+1%) UKIP 18% (+2) AP 7% (nc)

    Has the "party in first position" ever got a lower share than 34% before?
    It's not inconceivable that Labour could win an overall majority on 28% of the vote, in a four-way contest.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Many would. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. Ask any Labour supporter from the 1960, 1970s or 1980s about PFI and most of New Labour's policies - they would not think they are 'Labour' in any shape or form.

    Times change. The public change, and political parties have to try to mirror those social changes.

    If the Cosnervatives are getting rid of the loonies (and I would count anyone who is now against gay marriage as a loony), then so be it.

    Let them sink in their own cesspool of filth.
    Judging by polling, most people who voted Conservative in 2010 opposed gay marriage. Are you really saying the Conservatives should wish to get rid of such voters?

    People who aren't in favour of gay marriage are Loonies who should sink in a Cesspit of filth... Righto
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Damn, shouldn't have bottled it laying off some of the 9-2 - still a profit is a profit.
  • How did they win that?

    This is England, they are crapper than Ed Miliband.

  • Another winning bet, just saying....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    England = Garbage lol
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited January 2014

    How did they win that?

    Great finish!
    I think the question is how did they lose that?
  • Zara Phillips has given birth to a 7lbs 12oz baby girl at Gloucestershire Royal Hospital. Husband Mike Tindall was present at the birth
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited January 2014
    What I want to know is who the hell backed England at 1.02

    Bonkers lol
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Are we not getting an IPSOS Monitor this month?
  • Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 30s

    Zara Philips rounds of Ed Miliband's nightmare week.
  • Time to invest in my Aussie winnings on Swansea beating Spurs.

    Fill your boots....

    England = Labour 2015 GE. "How did they lose that?"
  • RodCrosby said:

    Are we not getting an IPSOS Monitor this month?

    I'm hoping to see it today, they've moved publication date from Wednesday to Fridays in recent months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Many would. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. Ask any Labour supporter from the 1960, 1970s or 1980s about PFI and most of New Labour's policies - they would not think they are 'Labour' in any shape or form.

    Times change. The public change, and political parties have to try to mirror those social changes.

    If the Cosnervatives are getting rid of the loonies (and I would count anyone who is now against gay marriage as a loony), then so be it.

    Let them sink in their own cesspool of filth.
    Judging by polling, most people who voted Conservative in 2010 opposed gay marriage. Are you really saying the Conservatives should wish to get rid of such voters?

    People who aren't in favour of gay marriage are Loonies who should sink in a Cesspit of filth... Righto
    It's the kind of comment that does make me think the Conservatives are doomed. By all means, support gay marriage. But, there's no need to insult your own supporters.

  • Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 30s

    Zara Philips rounds of Ed Miliband's nightmare week.

    LOL!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Zara Phillips has given birth to a 7lbs 12oz baby girl at Gloucestershire Royal Hospital. Husband Mike Tindall was present at the birth

    That's tomorrows front pages then..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2014
    Ipsos Mori out.

    Today’s monthly Political Monitor, however, shows Mr Miliband increasing Labour’s lead to nine points. It has Labour up two points to 39 per cent, and the Conservatives down three to 30. The Liberal Democrats have improved to 13 per cent since last month, overtaking Nigel Farage’s Ukip, who are on 11.

    In a finding that will surprise many at Westminster, Ipsos MORI discovered Tory supporters would rather share power with the Liberal Democrats than with Nigel Farage’s Ukip.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/two-thirds-of-voters-dont-want-another-coalition-poll-reveals-9066863.html
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:



    It's not inconceivable that Labour could win an overall majority on 28% of the vote, in a four-way contest.

    Pretty unlikely under FPTP. Impossible under PR^2...
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Another winning bet, just saying....

    Given your current form, I don't suppose you fancy backing the Magpies against Allardyce's mob this weekend?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Many would. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. Ask any Labour supporter from the 1960, 1970s or 1980s about PFI and most of New Labour's policies - they would not think they are 'Labour' in any shape or form.

    Times change. The public change, and political parties have to try to mirror those social changes.

    If the Cosnervatives are getting rid of the loonies (and I would count anyone who is now against gay marriage as a loony), then so be it.

    Let them sink in their own cesspool of filth.
    Judging by polling, most people who voted Conservative in 2010 opposed gay marriage. Are you really saying the Conservatives should wish to get rid of such voters?

    People who aren't in favour of gay marriage are Loonies who should sink in a Cesspit of filth... Righto
    It's the kind of comment that does make me think the Conservatives are doomed. By all means, support gay marriage. But, there's no need to insult your own supporters.

    Seems like the kids that were bullied at school are now bullies themselves

    Maybe that was always their ambition
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2014
    @Avery

    Surely today's good news is Mr Miliband's promise to inject much more competition into the banking sector by breaking up the oligopoly. This is long overdue.

    How long will we have to wait until Osborne jumps on the bandwagon ? Get a move on.
  • Ipsos Mori Changes

    Lab 39 (+2)

    Con 33 (-3)

    LD 13 (+4)

    UKIP 11 (+1)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Guido has posted an article claiming that Ed Miliband'c comments on the UK banks are costing the taxpayer billions.

    LLoyds/ RBS Share prices softened today and some city experts are saying the prospects of the government being able to sell shares are reduced.

    A small example of the carnage Milliband would cause if he ever got to government.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Imagine 20 years ago you had told Conservative voters that in 2014 we would have a Prime Minister who was fiercely determined to stay inthe EU, raise the minimum wage, introduce gay marriage...

    I wonder how many would have thought it would be a Conservative?

    "Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."

    Many would. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. Ask any Labour supporter from the 1960, 1970s or 1980s about PFI and most of New Labour's policies - they would not think they are 'Labour' in any shape or form.

    Times change. The public change, and political parties have to try to mirror those social changes.

    If the Cosnervatives are getting rid of the loonies (and I would count anyone who is now against gay marriage as a loony), then so be it.

    Let them sink in their own cesspool of filth.
    Judging by polling, most people who voted Conservative in 2010 opposed gay marriage. Are you really saying the Conservatives should wish to get rid of such voters?

    People who aren't in favour of gay marriage are Loonies who should sink in a Cesspit of filth... Righto
    It's the kind of comment that does make me think the Conservatives are doomed. By all means, support gay marriage. But, there's no need to insult your own supporters.

    Seems like the kids that were bullied at school are now bullies themselves

    Maybe that was always their ambition
    Sorry, bullies / bullying, what are you going on about?!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Ipsos Mori Changes

    Lab 39 (+2)

    Con 33 (-3)

    LD 13 (+4)

    UKIP 11 (+1)

    We need the leader ratings!!! ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2014
    Lennon said:

    Another winning bet, just saying....

    Given your current form, I don't suppose you fancy backing the Magpies against Allardyce's mob this weekend?
    Yes, I will be backing West Ham to lose has been very profitable for me, that shellacking they took at the Etihad last week was soooo profitable.

    I also have backed them to be relegated.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,348
    edited January 2014
    antifrank said:

    @JonathanD @glw I have kept changing banks to get away from Lloyds, but keep finding myself back in their clutches. Sod's law, the recent divestment left me with them.

    What angers me is that LLoyds in the form of the C&G are closing our term savings accounts on expiry of the current term, and sending cheques at some unspecified time within a span of a month - so we have no idea when to expect them. This is forced, with no option of transferring directly to another bank through the banking system. This is bad enough for us but it is very much upsetting elderly relatives with substantial life savings in such accounts. I certainly won't be banking with them again!!

This discussion has been closed.