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Great question to the PM from Sky’s Beth Rigby – politicalbetting.com

245

Comments

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    What a post to keep. “ the trend is Boris' friend “

    You do realise you have posted “if Boris can’t win, he can at least ensure the Conservatives crash and burn with him” or have I just read it completely wrong?
    That is exactly how I read it - unbelievable
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Could make a great Daily Mail feature, however, if there are any tabloid friendly journalists on the site

    THE ISLAND WHERE IRAN TRIES TO PARTY
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    What a post to keep. “ the trend is Boris' friend “

    You do realise you have posted “if Boris can’t win, he can at least ensure the Conservatives crash and burn with him” or have I just read it completely wrong?
    That is exactly how I read it - unbelievable
    I pretty much read it as that. Only Boris - or the ruins of a party
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tik tok...

    Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...


    I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.

    Bit late. But hey.....
    Just a street thug with grandiose pretentions.
    That's what they all are.

    Stalin - that is literally what he was
    Saddam Hussein - who liked to bang on about how he was the inheritor (and leader) of Bathtub Arab National Socialism.
    Mao - literally. Murdered bags of the intellectual commies to get the top spot.
    Mussolini - say no more
    Hitler - the archetype.

    In fact the closest we had to a cultured dictator with actual intellect was D'Annunzio - and he only ran Fiume for a bit....
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    What a post to keep. “ the trend is Boris' friend “

    You do realise you have posted “if Boris can’t win, he can at least ensure the Conservatives crash and burn with him” or have I just read it completely wrong?
    No, he can ensure Sunak crashes and burns. As long as he keeps the Labour lead from getting too high and Sunak does not look like beating Starmer either then Boris is safe
    Your worship of Boris is extraordinary and blinds you to reality
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625

    If Jezza was PM now, he would be personally inviting Putin for a cup of tea at #10.

    He'd be joining Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua in recognising the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Pulpstar said:

    Tik tok...

    Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...


    I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.

    Bit late. But hey.....
    Yes I admit I was a bit wrong last week, where I posted someone worse could replace him. After today there can be no doubt, anyone in Russia could replace this loony tomorrow and it would be an improvement. 👍🏻
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
  • Putin reads PB.

    I posted this, a few days ago

    image

    Putin's security council meeting

    image

    I thought that the moment I saw it on telly! They are recreating Malmsy bond still.

    If he reads PB he ain’t “getting it” though! We must be laying it on too subtle like.

    You reading this Vlad? Fuck off back to hell you ridiculous arch vile! 😆
    be careful like Pike , when Russia reach London , Putin may examine ze list!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    @Leon Lake Bohinj, Slovenia.

    Leave the crowds at Lake Bled and enjoy mountains, meadows and waterfalls.

    The bit of Croatia up by the Hungarian border is supposed to be amazing
  • The Kremlin has ordered Russia’s defense ministry to deploy troops in two Russia-backed separatist territories that have loomed large in the conflict over Ukraine.


    NY Times blog
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    Lab 39%, Con 33%, LD 11%, Grn 7%, Ref 4%.

    ElectoralCalculus:

    Current boundaries: Lab 307, Con 248, LD 11, Grn 1
    New boundaries: Lab 300, Con 255, LD 19, Grn 1
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Interesting. Spoils my idea of opening an alcohol rehab centre for Westerners in Iran then :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    My dad used to work in Saudi Arabia and said getting booze was never a problem, at least for Westerners, it was just bloody expensive so they'd try to make their own. That was back in the 70s though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited February 2022

    kle4 said:

    Putin reads PB.

    I posted this, a few days ago

    image

    Putin's security council meeting

    image

    Their hearing is clearly better than mine.
    They spent all night learning their lines. And still one of the fluffed it and Had to be reminded what he was there to say.
    When I am unDictator of Britain I need to considered redecorating the Cabinet Office Briefing Room. I'm torn between

    image

    Comfy chairs, good acoustics, projection capability, head count reduction facilities integrated.... and

    image

    Standing meetings are briefer, more effective. Awesome head count reduction capability....

  • Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    Lab 39%, Con 33%, LD 11%, Grn 7%, Ref 4%.

    ElectoralCalculus:

    Current boundaries: Lab 307, Con 248, LD 11, Grn 1
    New boundaries: Lab 300, Con 255, LD 19, Grn 1
    Those new boundaries look great for Lib Dems!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future. We can't keep having people who aren't vulnerable or deal with vulnerable people on a daily basis test themselves 27 times a day, just because its free to get your LFT, and most people get sick pay if they are ill (if you want to argue for better sick pay from your employer, that's a different kettle of fish).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    What a post to keep. “ the trend is Boris' friend “

    You do realise you have posted “if Boris can’t win, he can at least ensure the Conservatives crash and burn with him” or have I just read it completely wrong?
    That is exactly how I read it - unbelievable
    I pretty much read it as that. Only Boris - or the ruins of a party
    Still an amazing 14% of respondents who think that the clown tells the truth.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    IanB2 said:

    @Leon Lake Bohinj, Slovenia.

    Leave the crowds at Lake Bled and enjoy mountains, meadows and waterfalls.

    The bit of Croatia up by the Hungarian border is supposed to be amazing
    By the way, does anyone know why flying to Croatia is so expensive? Ryanair will do £20 to Zagreb, but all the London <-> Split and London <-> Dubrovnik flights, even with changes at Zagreb are about £200 return… was this true before Covid?
  • JAPAN TO JOIN U.S.-LED CHIP EXPORT SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA: YOMIURI

    https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1495888140216803330?s=21
  • Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    No we dont - alcohol has big advantages in terms of most people getting a lot of fun,relaxation and social interaction out of it .Lets not get all puritan
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    I think the argument for winding down testing and isolation is that it isn’t doing much to stop omicron spreading, so why bother? I’d rather spend the 2 billion a month on other things.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    The Kremlin has ordered Russia’s defense ministry to deploy troops in two Russia-backed separatist territories that have loomed large in the conflict over Ukraine.


    NY Times blog

    Do we have a fair idea of the kyiv leaning, Moscow leaning percentages in these latest annexed bits of Ukraine territory?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    Lab 39%, Con 33%, LD 11%, Grn 7%, Ref 4%.

    ElectoralCalculus:

    Current boundaries: Lab 307, Con 248, LD 11, Grn 1
    New boundaries: Lab 300, Con 255, LD 19, Grn 1
    Those new boundaries look great for Lib Dems!
    Yes, not sure exactly why they're better, I need to look at the individual constituencies where the party is in a strong position.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    If you have to isolate then it's obviously a restriction on your freedom. We don't do it for cases of other respiratory diseases.

    If not now then when? Do you think Denmark, Sweden and Norway have all got it wrong?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    @Leon Lake Bohinj, Slovenia.

    Leave the crowds at Lake Bled and enjoy mountains, meadows and waterfalls.

    The bit of Croatia up by the Hungarian border is supposed to be amazing
    By the way, does anyone know why flying to Croatia is so expensive? Ryanair will do £20 to Zagreb, but all the London <-> Split and London <-> Dubrovnik flights, even with changes at Zagreb are about £200 return… was this true before Covid?
    As non-EU their flights aren’t subsidised by the EU regional airports fund. Hence you’re actually simply paying the right price?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tik tok...

    Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...


    I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.

    Bit late. But hey.....
    Just a street thug with grandiose pretentions.
    That's what they all are.

    Sta- that is literally what he was
    Saddam Hussein - who liked to bang on about how he was the inheritor (and leader) of Bathtub Arab National Socialism.
    Mao - literally. Murdered bags of the intellectual commies to get the top spot.
    Mussolini - say no more
    Hitler - the archetype.

    In fact the closest we had to a cultured dictator with actual intellect was D'Annunzio - and he only ran Fiume for a bit....
    I wish that were the case but it is not

    Nearly all of those you cite were cunning and intelligent.

    Stalin was brutally good at wielding power and fear, and fencing off his own emotions

    Mao was a kind of genius, eg he knew just went to unleash the Cultural Revolution - then stop it

    Hitler was a super orator (albeit florid for Anglo-Saxon tastes) and also a very gifted political operator in the round: the Swastika flag was his, and it is possibly the greatest piece of vexillological design in history

    Mussolini was a thuggish, stupider copycat of d'Annunzio, agreed, and Hussein was just mafioso

    But there is no point in denying some of these men had great talents. They just used them for evil purposes
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    On thread: No.
    My criticism of lockdowns is too many, too hard.
    The state should not have that power in principle.
    In practice, they are an ineffective tool.
    We can't cower for ever andhave already cowered too long.

    Some credit to the government, because at times I honestly never thought we'd get here: I thought the pro-lockdown interests too entrenched. But only some. Because they have leapt too often to lockdowns on the basis of dodgy or insufficient evidence and have been too slow to unlock, again on the basis of dodgy or insufficient evidence. They have been in hock to the lockdown lobby, and that only really changed when Hancock was got rid of.
    Had it not been for Fraser Nelson's article finally alerting the Conservative Party to the paucity of the evidence on which decisions were being made, Boris would have had us in to a second winter lockdown. Because he's an idiot who doesn't know how to question evidence. But rather an idiot who arrives at the right answer eventually than someone who appears to believe in lockdown as a point of principle like his opposite number.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    IanB2 said:

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    @Leon Lake Bohinj, Slovenia.

    Leave the crowds at Lake Bled and enjoy mountains, meadows and waterfalls.

    The bit of Croatia up by the Hungarian border is supposed to be amazing
    By the way, does anyone know why flying to Croatia is so expensive? Ryanair will do £20 to Zagreb, but all the London <-> Split and London <-> Dubrovnik flights, even with changes at Zagreb are about £200 return… was this true before Covid?
    As non-EU their flights aren’t subsidised by the EU regional airports fund. Hence you’re actually simply paying the right price?
    Croatia is in the EU, but not schengen.
  • A No 10 spokesperson said:

    “The Prime Minister will chair a COBR at 0630 tomorrow morning to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and to coordinate the UK response including agreeing a significant package of sanctions to be introduced immediately.”


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1495891639281270784
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    You are David Nutt and I claim my five pounds!

    But seriously you are right. For most people alcohol is totally fine, but for some it’s a hideous curse. Whether that is the alcoholics on litres of vodka a day, or the fighting drunks who wreak such havoc under the influence, alcohol does cause a lot of grief.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited February 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tik tok...

    Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...


    I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.

    Bit late. But hey.....
    Just a street thug with grandiose pretentions.
    That's what they all are.

    Sta- that is literally what he was
    Saddam Hussein - who liked to bang on about how he was the inheritor (and leader) of Bathtub Arab National Socialism.
    Mao - literally. Murdered bags of the intellectual commies to get the top spot.
    Mussolini - say no more
    Hitler - the archetype.

    In fact the closest we had to a cultured dictator with actual intellect was D'Annunzio - and he only ran Fiume for a bit....
    I wish that were the case but it is not

    Nearly all of those you cite were cunning and intelligent.

    Stalin was brutally good at wielding power and fear, and fencing off his own emotions

    Mao was a kind of genius, eg he knew just went to unleash the Cultural Revolution - then stop it

    Hitler was a super orator (albeit florid for Anglo-Saxon tastes) and also a very gifted political operator in the round: the Swastika flag was his, and it is possibly the greatest piece of vexillological design in history

    Mussolini was a thuggish, stupider copycat of d'Annunzio, agreed, and Hussein was just mafioso

    But there is no point in denying some of these men had great talents. They just used them for evil purposes
    A bio I read about 20 years ago said Hussein had practically an entire library of books about Stalin.
  • Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tik tok...

    Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...


    I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.

    Bit late. But hey.....
    Just a street thug with grandiose pretentions.
    That's what they all are.

    Sta- that is literally what he was
    Saddam Hussein - who liked to bang on about how he was the inheritor (and leader) of Bathtub Arab National Socialism.
    Mao - literally. Murdered bags of the intellectual commies to get the top spot.
    Mussolini - say no more
    Hitler - the archetype.

    In fact the closest we had to a cultured dictator with actual intellect was D'Annunzio - and he only ran Fiume for a bit....
    I wish that were the case but it is not

    Nearly all of those you cite were cunning and intelligent.

    Stalin was brutally good at wielding power and fear, and fencing off his own emotions

    Mao was a kind of genius, eg he knew just went to unleash the Cultural Revolution - then stop it

    Hitler was a super orator (albeit florid for Anglo-Saxon tastes) and also a very gifted political operator in the round: the Swastika flag was his, and it is possibly the greatest piece of vexillological design in history

    Mussolini was a thuggish, stupider copycat of d'Annunzio, agreed, and Hussein was just mafioso

    But there is no point in denying some of these men had great talents. They just used them for evil purposes
    D'Annunzio was a failure in the long term.

    Fiume is now the Croat city of Rijeka...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Now to find out how serious we are about going after Russian money

    https://twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1495885432114094082
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
  • kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election now if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    A pathetic response
    Don't worry, I heard today they've installed Boris Johnson stickers in the urinals for people to aim at in a very working-class-tory East Midlands pub I used to frequent. He's a zombie PM. The magic's gone. It's never coming back. Even cowardly Conservative MPs will realise this soon.
    With apologies to Austin Powers:
    "Boris Johnson naked on a cold day! Boris Johnson naked on a cold day!"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    kle4 said:

    Putin reads PB.

    I posted this, a few days ago

    image

    Putin's security council meeting

    image

    Their hearing is clearly better than mine.
    They spent all night learning their lines. And still one of the fluffed it and Had to be reminded what he was there to say.
    When I am unDictator of Britain I need to considered redecorating the Cabinet Office Briefing Room. I'm torn between

    image

    Comfy chairs, good acoustics, projection capability, head count reduction facilities integrated.... and

    image

    Standing meetings are briefer, more effective. Awesome head count reduction capability....

    Standing meetings are so 21st Century, business like. but I would prefer something a bit more traditional - why not control everything, wars and all out of club chairs in a cosy room with a real fire? After all the most important thing there is the drinks cabinet?

    Make sure you have proper funding like Boris did. Rely on the state budget for renovation and it will look like a tip.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    I think the argument for winding down testing and isolation is that it isn’t doing much to stop omicron spreading, so why bother? I’d rather spend the 2 billion a month on other things.
    Where Labour should concentrate their criticism is on sick pay, where nothing has been done to improve it so that people can afford to take personal responsibility and stay home when ill (with whatever infectious disease).

    That's a genuine disgrace.

    I support winding down testing and all the rest, but they should be helping people to make the sensible choice.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election now if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    A pathetic response
    Don't worry, I heard today they've installed Boris Johnson stickers in the urinals for people to aim at in a very working-class-tory East Midlands pub I used to frequent. He's a zombie PM. The magic's gone. It's never coming back. Even cowardly Conservative MPs will realise this soon.
    In the next 25 hours in fact.
  • Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    I think the argument for winding down testing and isolation is that it isn’t doing much to stop omicron spreading, so why bother? I’d rather spend the 2 billion a month on other things.
    Where Labour should concentrate their criticism is on sick pay, where nothing has been done to improve it so that people can afford to take personal responsibility and stay home when ill (with whatever infectious disease).

    That's a genuine disgrace.

    I support winding down testing and all the rest, but they should be helping people to make the sensible choice.
    Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.

    However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!

    "Why?" asked @Leon on the phone incredulously.

    "Simple!" Boris's underling replied. "You're not entitled to any..." He paused for effect. "...Statue-Tory Sick Pay!"

    I thank you!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    The opioid epidemic has probably caused more damage to US society than Covid-19.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    I honestly have no idea why the government scientists have agreed to the no need to isolate if you have symptoms. The rest of the stuff I can see, but that one is bonkers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    kle4 said:

    Putin reads PB.

    I posted this, a few days ago

    image

    Putin's security council meeting

    image

    Their hearing is clearly better than mine.
    They spent all night learning their lines. And still one of the fluffed it and Had to be reminded what he was there to say.
    When I am unDictator of Britain I need to considered redecorating the Cabinet Office Briefing Room. I'm torn between

    image

    Comfy chairs, good acoustics, projection capability, head count reduction facilities integrated.... and

    image

    Standing meetings are briefer, more effective. Awesome head count reduction capability....

    Standing meetings are so 21st Century, business like. but I would prefer something a bit more traditional - why not control everything, wars and all out of club chairs in a cosy room with a real fire? After all the most important thing there is the drinks cabinet?

    Make sure you have proper funding like Boris did. Rely on the state budget for renovation and it will look like a tip.
    What about

    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Putin gave his myth about #Ukraine today as a reason to invade. Here is a brief introduction to Ukrainian-Russian history, which might serve as a reply.
    https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1495890431485358080
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    Fentanyl is largely a byproduct of prohibition though - the incentive to create ever more dense drugs to lower the transportation risk. It's quite shocking how Fentanyl has killed near enough double the people in San Fran since Feb 2020 than Covid. Regulation and testing is the way forward for drugs like ket and cocaine that are more or less ubiquitous among the young.
  • A No 10 spokesperson said:

    “The Prime Minister will chair a COBR at 0630 tomorrow morning to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and to coordinate the UK response including agreeing a significant package of sanctions to be introduced immediately.”


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1495891639281270784

    Cripes. This is the 'We may have to stop taking donations from these people if this continues' episode.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    This just shows how prohibition does not work. And also why decriminalization will not work. Without having a complete police state you can't stop drugs because the profitability is too large. The only way to get round that is to undercut the dealers by giving the stuff, or a viable, less deadly alternative, out at clinics. To be consumed on premises. You then have all the addicts in one place where you can focus on mental health treatment.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    I honestly have no idea why the government scientists have agreed to the no need to isolate if you have symptoms. The rest of the stuff I can see, but that one is bonkers.
    Guidance is the way to go on that - any and all semi-sensible employers won't let you go into work with symptoms, but barring people who having a sniffle from picking up essential supplies, and enforcing it via massive fines is stupid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    If you have to isolate then it's obviously a restriction on your freedom. We don't do it for cases of other respiratory diseases.

    If not now then when? Do you think Denmark, Sweden and Norway have all got it wrong?
    The difference is that flu is much less infectious in its presymptomatic phase, hence people are isolated by being ill. Covid is most infectious in its pre-symptomatic phase, so much more transmission that way.

    Dropping the legal requirement to a recommendation is reasonable in some sectors, but less so in others. Should care workers isolate when positive when working in old folks homes or cancer wards for example? And should they be able to access testing?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tik tok...

    Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...


    I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.

    Bit late. But hey.....
    Just a street thug with grandiose pretentions.
    That's what they all are.

    Sta- that is literally what he was
    Saddam Hussein - who liked to bang on about how he was the inheritor (and leader) of Bathtub Arab National Socialism.
    Mao - literally. Murdered bags of the intellectual commies to get the top spot.
    Mussolini - say no more
    Hitler - the archetype.

    In fact the closest we had to a cultured dictator with actual intellect was D'Annunzio - and he only ran Fiume for a bit....
    I wish that were the case but it is not

    Nearly all of those you cite were cunning and intelligent.

    Stalin was brutally good at wielding power and fear, and fencing off his own emotions

    Mao was a kind of genius, eg he knew just went to unleash the Cultural Revolution - then stop it

    Hitler was a super orator (albeit florid for Anglo-Saxon tastes) and also a very gifted political operator in the round: the Swastika flag was his, and it is possibly the greatest piece of vexillological design in history

    Mussolini was a thuggish, stupider copycat of d'Annunzio, agreed, and Hussein was just mafioso

    But there is no point in denying some of these men had great talents. They just used them for evil purposes
    D'Annunzio was a failure in the long term.

    Fiume is now the Croat city of Rijeka...
    They were all failures. The truly perceptive people who met them all spoke of a veneer of sophistication over the street thug.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    kle4 said:

    Putin reads PB.

    I posted this, a few days ago

    image

    Putin's security council meeting

    image

    Their hearing is clearly better than mine.
    They spent all night learning their lines. And still one of the fluffed it and Had to be reminded what he was there to say.
    When I am unDictator of Britain I need to considered redecorating the Cabinet Office Briefing Room. I'm torn between

    image

    Comfy chairs, good acoustics, projection capability, head count reduction facilities integrated.... and

    image

    Standing meetings are briefer, more effective. Awesome head count reduction capability....

    Standing meetings are so 21st Century, business like. but I would prefer something a bit more traditional - why not control everything, wars and all out of club chairs in a cosy room with a real fire? After all the most important thing there is the drinks cabinet?

    Make sure you have proper funding like Boris did. Rely on the state budget for renovation and it will look like a tip.
    What about

    image
    That’s the sort of thing. A tad too Dennis Wheatley though.

    I was thinking gin, not Jinns.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    Nobody is ignoring it. Its a matter of what is actually effective. All these people testing themselves several times a day, or even school kids testing themselves twice a week, isn't going to do anything in the grand scheme of things. Omicron is so easily spread it still rips through schools with or without that testing. Even people isolating, unless they live on their own, rapidly and easily spread it other members of their household, often before they know it, which ensures continued transmission. Same with idea of crowded spaces, if we want crowded spaces, Omicron will infect regardless, and you don't need much time or exposure to the person (unlike original variant, where yes some of these measures had some impact).

    The main things we can do is ensure ongoing surveying and sequencing (which is happening) and large amounts of vaccines / anti-virals (which is again happening, although I think we need bigger supply of anti-virals). And try to take some sensible steps among the sectors which deal with the most vulnerable.

    The one thing that I think can be done, which Valance mentioned, there has to be very good plans in case we do need to ramp things up again.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AFP- OSCE reports more than 3,000 ceasefire violations in east Ukraine

    Per @JenniferJJacobs, the US is moving all embassy staff out of Ukraine. Previously they had been moved from Kyiv to Lviv, now they will go to Poland.

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1495895070549098504

    It's going to be a full scale invasion. As the leader of the Russian LDs predicted last year 22/2/22 at 1am GMT is go time.
  • BREAKING: The Biden admin has ordered all remaining State Department personnel out of Ukraine. The embassy had previously relocated from Kyiv to the western city of Lviv. Now they are shifting to Poland.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512
  • For those who missed it:

    WATCH: Russian spy chief stumbles and expresses support for eastern Ukraine's annexation, to which Putin responds: "That’s not what we're talking about"

    https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1495794783771574275
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    Nobody is ignoring it. Its a matter of what is actually effective. All these people testing themselves several times a day, or even school kids testing themselves twice a week, isn't going to do anything in the grand scheme of things. Omicron is so easily spread it still rips through schools with or without it. Even people isolating, unless they live on their own, rapidly and easily spread it other members of their household, often before they know it, which ensures continued transmission. Same with idea of crowded spaces, if we want crowded spaces, Omicron will infect regardless, and you don't need much time or exposure to the person (unlike original variant, where yes some of these measures had some impact).

    The main things we can do is ensure ongoing surveying and sequencing (which is happening) and large amounts of vaccines / anti-virals (which is again happening, although I think we need bigger supply of anti-virals). And try to take some sensible steps among the sectors which deal with the most vulnerable.
    The problem is that "the most vulnerable" and those that live with them, or meet them daily are quite a large percentage of the population.

    I think the number of people testing even twice a week is small, those more than once a day approaching zero. Why stop LFTs completely? Perhaps restrict to 1 box per person per month for example, so frail grandparents can have visitors.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    So the invasion has started. The extent of Putin's ambitions remains to be seen, but the next step surely trying to win control of the two eastern Ukraine regions (including the parts under Ukraine's control). That will mean direct conflict between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries that offers the pretext to extend further on the back of Russian casualties (real or imagined).

    The question is whether he will be satisfied with linking up with the Crimea or extends into Kyiv. All very worrying regardless.

    I hope the sanctions imposed tomorrow are serious rather than just baby steps.
  • Beth Rigby, of Sky news no less, has juust said that if Boris 's decisions today are correct it will define his legacy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Its worth noting South Korea, the poster child of test and trace, a population willing to be spied upon and a vast army of tracker (which they expanded only a couple of months ago and who work 24/7), plus a generally well behaved population who stick to the rules.

    Now 100k+ cases a day.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Too early? FFS!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited February 2022

    A No 10 spokesperson said:

    “The Prime Minister will chair a COBR at 0630 tomorrow morning to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and to coordinate the UK response including agreeing a significant package of sanctions to be introduced immediately.”


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1495891639281270784

    Cripes. This is the 'We may have to stop taking donations from these people if this continues' episode.
    Oh, it'll never be that bad. Don't take it out on the money, it's not the money's fault this is happening.

    Call it Russian Committee Money instead, that'llbe fine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    Nobody is ignoring it. Its a matter of what is actually effective. All these people testing themselves several times a day, or even school kids testing themselves twice a week, isn't going to do anything in the grand scheme of things. Omicron is so easily spread it still rips through schools with or without it. Even people isolating, unless they live on their own, rapidly and easily spread it other members of their household, often before they know it, which ensures continued transmission. Same with idea of crowded spaces, if we want crowded spaces, Omicron will infect regardless, and you don't need much time or exposure to the person (unlike original variant, where yes some of these measures had some impact).

    The main things we can do is ensure ongoing surveying and sequencing (which is happening) and large amounts of vaccines / anti-virals (which is again happening, although I think we need bigger supply of anti-virals). And try to take some sensible steps among the sectors which deal with the most vulnerable.
    The problem is that "the most vulnerable" and those that live with them, or meet them daily are quite a large percentage of the population.

    I think the number of people testing even twice a week is small, those more than once a day approaching zero. Why stop LFTs completely? Perhaps restrict to 1 box per person per month for example, so frail grandparents can have visitors.
    Twice a week testing is currently all staff and students in education and child care settings.

    Until April, you can still order a box of tests every 3 days. So if you are sensible you can easily stockpile plenty for your weekly visit to your elderly parent etc. They also aren't stopping for very vulnerable people, so I would think again, nothing stopping you sharing them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    kle4 said:

    Putin reads PB.

    I posted this, a few days ago

    image

    Putin's security council meeting

    image

    Their hearing is clearly better than mine.
    They spent all night learning their lines. And still one of the fluffed it and Had to be reminded what he was there to say.
    When I am unDictator of Britain I need to considered redecorating the Cabinet Office Briefing Room. I'm torn between

    image

    Comfy chairs, good acoustics, projection capability, head count reduction facilities integrated.... and

    image

    Standing meetings are briefer, more effective. Awesome head count reduction capability....

    Standing meetings are so 21st Century, business like. but I would prefer something a bit more traditional - why not control everything, wars and all out of club chairs in a cosy room with a real fire? After all the most important thing there is the drinks cabinet?

    Make sure you have proper funding like Boris did. Rely on the state budget for renovation and it will look like a tip.
    What about

    image
    That’s the sort of thing. A tad too Dennis Wheatley though.

    I was thinking gin, not Jinns.
    Oh hell, let's just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage.

    image
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    iSAGE: "It's not a good idea".

    Also iSAGE: "By opening up in July the UK is undergoing a wildly dangerous experiment", "Christmas will be a disaster unless we lockdown now" "the modelling is right, the NHS will collapse next week" etc etc

    We shouldn't expect anything other than glacially slow movement from IceAge.....
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They aren't being eased too early. Most of the population have been double vaccinated and had their boosters and the hospitalisation rate is falling.

    The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B

    Tonight's RedfieldWilton poll's details are a horror show for Boris
    Labour only 6% ahead in tonight's RedfieldWilton is hardly a horror show

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
    But Boris and Sunak’s ratings in free fall at same time proves Big G is right.
    Sunak's ratings in free fall is surely good for Boris? The only way he is replaced as Tory leader and PM is Labour over 10% ahead, they aren't and Sunak far more popular than he is
    Sunak +4

    Boris - 31

    Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
    Sunak also down 6%, the trend is Boris' friend.

    Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.

    5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
    What a post to keep. “ the trend is Boris' friend “

    You do realise you have posted “if Boris can’t win, he can at least ensure the Conservatives crash and burn with him” or have I just read it completely wrong?
    No, he can ensure Sunak crashes and burns. As long as he keeps the Labour lead from getting too high and Sunak does not look like beating Starmer either then Boris is safe
    Your worship of Boris is extraordinary and blinds you to reality
    One of the problems with HY is he expresses what he think might happen and what he think should happen in the same black and white, morally dispassionate way, without cues, so it is difficult to tell one from.the other, especially as he does seem to support some hard-line stuff.

    But. distasteful or not, I think he is close to the mark on the thought processes and how power is exercised in the Johnson administration and thus how the game is likely to be played.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    Not body bags, but zinc lined coffins, hence the Russian expression "zinky boys".


    Zinky Boys: Soviet Voices from the Afghanistan War https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0393336867/ref=cm_sw_r_apan_glt_i_C7NDJ8E9C37Q6SM8DAPQ


    Ukraine isn't Afghanistan though.
  • A No 10 spokesperson said:

    “The Prime Minister will chair a COBR at 0630 tomorrow morning to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine and to coordinate the UK response including agreeing a significant package of sanctions to be introduced immediately.”


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1495891639281270784

    Cripes. This is the 'We may have to stop taking donations from these people if this continues' episode.
    No, no, no, the way to show Putin we really mean business is by doubling the price of donations the Tory party expect from his cronies to access our PMs. That is not just extra financial burden on Russia but more funds for the blue team too. Win/win, what's not to like?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    edited February 2022
    Russian forces have entered the two breakaway republics. The State Dept spokesman response? It's not new, Russian forces have been there since 2014. It is new, these are notable Russian formations.

    This, as I've mentioned before, is Putin's easy win. After that though it potentially gets more tricky but the US has made the misstep here by 1. Getting their embassy staff out so fast and 2. reacting to the move into the breakaway republics as a insignificant step.

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    I honestly have no idea why the government scientists have agreed to the no need to isolate if you have symptoms. The rest of the stuff I can see, but that one is bonkers.
    They have not agreed to that at all, nor have the government. They say we should isolate, just accepting that there will be no legal mandate to enforce the "should".

    Realistically it is rarely going to be policed anyway. If someone decides not to take a test they don't even know if they have covid or not. The police don't have time to deal with it, nor do the courts.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    Not body bags, but zinc lined coffins, hence the Russian expression "zinky boys".


    Zinky Boys: Soviet Voices from the Afghanistan War https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0393336867/ref=cm_sw_r_apan_glt_i_C7NDJ8E9C37Q6SM8DAPQ


    Ukraine isn't Afghanistan though.
    - "Is there still a Tsar?”

    - “Yes, but he is not a Romanoff. It’s another family. He is much more powerful, and much more despotic.”
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited February 2022
    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    I honestly have no idea why the government scientists have agreed to the no need to isolate if you have symptoms. The rest of the stuff I can see, but that one is bonkers.
    They have not agreed to that at all, nor have the government. They say we should isolate, just accepting that there will be no legal mandate to enforce the "should".

    Realistically it is rarely going to be policed anyway. If someone decides not to take a test they don't even know if they have covid or not. The police don't have time to deal with it, nor do the courts.
    The reality is also everybody, shielding, regularly tested, vaccinated, etc etc etc, we are all getting exposed, and huge numbers of people already have and caught it. And isolating isn't even anywhere near a magic bullet, unless you live on your own and don't need any assistance, inter-household transmission is very high.

    Unless you are going to live like a hermit and never see anybody ever again, you are fighting a losing battle if you think you can avoid ever coming into contact with Omicron. Its just a matter of time until you do and you are then very likely to get it.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited February 2022

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    The last point I agree with - this move, and that speech was a desperate one of a man who realises that he is running out of time. However any decapitation would demand a strong, and probably nuclear response. Russia does not have the resources to subjugate Ukraine without massive conscript fatalities, especially one armed and trained by the UK/USA in counter-insurgency. This entire escalation had no off-ramps, and the only logical endpoint is one that is not overly beneficial to Russia.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited February 2022
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    This just shows how prohibition does not work. And also why decriminalization will not work. Without having a complete police state you can't stop drugs because the profitability is too large. The only way to get round that is to undercut the dealers by giving the stuff, or a viable, less deadly alternative, out at clinics. To be consumed on premises. You then have all the addicts in one place where you can focus on mental health treatment.
    In 1950 there were hardly any heroin addicts in the UK. Whatever policy/policies lead to that outcome needs to be tried again IMO.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Beth Rigby, of Sky news no less, has juust said that if Boris 's decisions today are correct it will define his legacy

    If he's wrong it will also define his legacy. Let's hope he's right.

    A roll of the dice defines a legacy? That figures for Johnson.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    I honestly have no idea why the government scientists have agreed to the no need to isolate if you have symptoms. The rest of the stuff I can see, but that one is bonkers.
    They have not agreed to that at all, nor have the government. They say we should isolate, just accepting that there will be no legal mandate to enforce the "should".

    Realistically it is rarely going to be policed anyway. If someone decides not to take a test they don't even know if they have covid or not. The police don't have time to deal with it, nor do the courts.
    The reality is also everybody, shielding, regularly tested, vaccinated, etc etc etc, we are all getting exposed, and huge numbers of people already have and caught it. And isolating isn't even anywhere near a magic bullet, unless you live on your own and don't need any assistance, inter-household transmission is very high.

    Unless you are going to live like a hermit and never see anybody ever again, you are fighting a losing battle if you think you can avoid ever coming into contact with Omicron. Its just a matter of time until you do and you are then very likely to get it.
    I think that is far too defeatist. Numbers are dropping rapidly, but clearly not everybody has caught it or been exposed. Mrs Foxy didn't catch it when I had it a month ago, and as far as I know I didn't pass it onto anyone else either.

    Waves of infections peak then drop, way before everyone is exposed. The Spanish Flu was the same, only about a third of the population caught it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Ratters said:

    So the invasion has started. The extent of Putin's ambitions remains to be seen, but the next step surely trying to win control of the two eastern Ukraine regions (including the parts under Ukraine's control). That will mean direct conflict between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries that offers the pretext to extend further on the back of Russian casualties (real or imagined).

    The question is whether he will be satisfied with linking up with the Crimea or extends into Kyiv. All very worrying regardless.

    I hope the sanctions imposed tomorrow are serious rather than just baby steps.

    As part of these sanctions, can we please ban all Russians from international sport. Cheating c*nts, pollute everything they compete at. Make it last for 20 years - an entire generation of sportsmen junkies prevented from travelling for sport.

    They can have their own drugged to fuck version of the Olympics, where the winner does the 100m in 4.6 seconds.

    Oh, and Ukrainians get a 10 second head start when they compete.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Andy_JS said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    This just shows how prohibition does not work. And also why decriminalization will not work. Without having a complete police state you can't stop drugs because the profitability is too large. The only way to get round that is to undercut the dealers by giving the stuff, or a viable, less deadly alternative, out at clinics. To be consumed on premises. You then have all the addicts in one place where you can focus on mental health treatment.
    In 1950 there were hardly any heroin addicts in the UK. Whatever policy/policies lead to that outcome needs to be tried again IMO.
    Society was rather different back then.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    The last point I agree with - this move, and that speech was a desperate one of a man who realises that he is running out of time. However any decapitation would demand a strong, and probably nuclear response. Russia does not have the resources to subjugate Ukraine without massive conscript fatalities, especially one armed and trained by the UK/USA in counter-insurgency. This entire escalation had no off-ramps, and the only logical endpoint is one that is not overly beneficial to Russia.
    The idea that his Covid-isolation has lead him to make a serious misjudgement has some merit. The shadow of the pandemic is large.

    Anyone know whether Xi has isolated much?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Beth Rigby asking about "gun ho" politicians - is she suggesting Boris is in a crack den with an Uzi and his bitches?

    That might just get the letters going in.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Beth Rigby asking about "gun ho" politicians - is she suggesting Boris is in a crack den with an Uzi and his bitches?

    That might just get the letters going in.....

    Sad to say. But that's entirely plausible.
    Apart from the letters going in bit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    For those who say it is too early, what are you trying to achieve with the restrictions still in place?

    Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.

    So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?

    So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.

    Existing restrictions are minimal. Ending isolation of positives, sick pay for positives and freely availible testing have nothing really to do with freedom, just about saving money. I think all of those could reasonably be said to be ending too soon.
    There has to be some cut off. What would say waiting until June rather than April achieve? People are going to be constantly getting COVID and they are constantly going to need some time off work. That is just the fact of the matter for the foreseeable future.
    To many "living with covid" consists of ignoring it. I hope they don't live with HIV, or chlamydia the same way.

    We have a new respiratory pathogen that is highly infectious, significantly dangerous to a minority of the population and prone to novel mutations.

    Living with covid requires more than ignoring it. It needs attention to ventilation in crowded places, for those who are infected to minimise contact with others, a fresh look at how sick leave can work for those on ZHC and similar contracts, attention to cross infection particularly in hospitals and nursing homes, active sampling to pick up new variants promptly and updated vaccones etc etc. None of these are infringements of liberty or freedom, just sensible adaptions to allow living with covid.
    I honestly have no idea why the government scientists have agreed to the no need to isolate if you have symptoms. The rest of the stuff I can see, but that one is bonkers.
    They have not agreed to that at all, nor have the government. They say we should isolate, just accepting that there will be no legal mandate to enforce the "should".

    Realistically it is rarely going to be policed anyway. If someone decides not to take a test they don't even know if they have covid or not. The police don't have time to deal with it, nor do the courts.
    The reality is also everybody, shielding, regularly tested, vaccinated, etc etc etc, we are all getting exposed, and huge numbers of people already have and caught it. And isolating isn't even anywhere near a magic bullet, unless you live on your own and don't need any assistance, inter-household transmission is very high.

    Unless you are going to live like a hermit and never see anybody ever again, you are fighting a losing battle if you think you can avoid ever coming into contact with Omicron. Its just a matter of time until you do and you are then very likely to get it.
    I think that is far too defeatist. Numbers are dropping rapidly, but clearly not everybody has caught it or been exposed. Mrs Foxy didn't catch it when I had it a month ago, and as far as I know I didn't pass it onto anyone else either.

    Waves of infections peak then drop, way before everyone is exposed. The Spanish Flu was the same, only about a third of the population caught it.
    That is why I focused on exposed rather than cases to Omicron. We have no idea how many people have in reality been exposed, only those positive cases. And the HSA modelling was based on 7x as many people will have caught it as tested positive in the official numbers (if you believe that 7x multiplier is a different matter, but I think several multiples is fair).

    I would have thought most people who have been out and about doing normal things will have been somewhere where somebody had COVID at some point over the past 3 months. Triple vaxxed, especially past 3 months, gives you a decent level of protection against infection.

    Its absolutely nailed on all school kids have been exposed during the pandemic.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    The last point I agree with - this move, and that speech was a desperate one of a man who realises that he is running out of time. However any decapitation would demand a strong, and probably nuclear response. Russia does not have the resources to subjugate Ukraine without massive conscript fatalities, especially one armed and trained by the UK/USA in counter-insurgency. This entire escalation had no off-ramps, and the only logical endpoint is one that is not overly beneficial to Russia.
    Any decapitation would definitely have to be fully deniable! It was more about wondering whether getting rid would actually be a benefit. There's every chance that it could actually make things worse.

    He does seem to be in a rush, for whatever reason, though. Those long tables were bizarre - as if he really is terrified of Covid. Has he reason to be terrified? Or is it just some kind of descent into paranoia? It can't be good having to watch your back constantly for so many years and then have to dodge a pandemic on top.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    The last point I agree with - this move, and that speech was a desperate one of a man who realises that he is running out of time. However any decapitation would demand a strong, and probably nuclear response. Russia does not have the resources to subjugate Ukraine without massive conscript fatalities, especially one armed and trained by the UK/USA in counter-insurgency. This entire escalation had no off-ramps, and the only logical endpoint is one that is not overly beneficial to Russia.
    Eventually.
    Even the best begin to believe their own propaganda. See Thatcher.
    That the West is hopelessly woke, weak, divided and effeminate. And wouldn't do owt is an article of Faith. As is Russia as the masters of disinformation. However. They didn't reckon on prebuttal as a policy. Every step the West has been ahead signalling the next move.
    Putin is Mourinho. From another age. His tactics and strategy has been worked out.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited February 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    This just shows how prohibition does not work. And also why decriminalization will not work. Without having a complete police state you can't stop drugs because the profitability is too large. The only way to get round that is to undercut the dealers by giving the stuff, or a viable, less deadly alternative, out at clinics. To be consumed on premises. You then have all the addicts in one place where you can focus on mental health treatment.
    In 1950 there were hardly any heroin addicts in the UK. Whatever policy/policies lead to that outcome needs to be tried again IMO.
    Hangin' and floggin' ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Beth Rigby asking about "gun ho" politicians - is she suggesting Boris is in a crack den with an Uzi and his bitches?

    That might just get the letters going in.....

    A singular street ho surely? Here's a conundrum, what would be the plural of a ho? Hos or hoes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    dixiedean said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    The last point I agree with - this move, and that speech was a desperate one of a man who realises that he is running out of time. However any decapitation would demand a strong, and probably nuclear response. Russia does not have the resources to subjugate Ukraine without massive conscript fatalities, especially one armed and trained by the UK/USA in counter-insurgency. This entire escalation had no off-ramps, and the only logical endpoint is one that is not overly beneficial to Russia.
    Eventually.
    Even the best begin to believe their own propaganda. See Thatcher.
    That the West is hopelessly woke, weak, divided and effeminate. And wouldn't do owt is an article of Faith. As is Russia as the masters of disinformation. However. They didn't reckon on prebuttal as a policy. Every step the West has been ahead signalling the next move.
    Putin is Mourinho. From another age. His tactics and strategy has been worked out.
    The West won't do anything beyond economic sanctions against Ukraine and certainly not the Russian sympathetic separatist regions but the Baltic States and NATO states are another matter
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    This is a hilarious suggestion, so I thought I'd do some calculations.

    Let's say the "meteorite" is a solid iron ball, 5 metres in diameter. This would weigh some 500 tonnes; an object of that weight would be exceptionally difficult to get into orbit - the shuttle was able to take about 30 tonnes payload.
    The iron would then need to be flung at the earth. Given terminal velocity in air is likely to be a few hundred metres per second, there's no point in throwing it much harder, even if you could (spoiler, you can't). Let's say you SOMEHOW manage to fire this badboy 300 metres per second. It will hit the ground at a bit less than that, approx 220 metres per second. And for maximum impact, let's say it was travelling straight down, that's how you get the biggest crater.
    Give all those parameters, you need to be astonishingly accurate. The crater would be less than 50m is diameter. Meaning you have to get your shot in within 25m of the target from a distance of say 700km (mid range of low-earth orbit). That is the equivalent of throwing a dart from the London Eye and hitting the bullseye of a dartboard on the clock face of the Elizabeth Tower.

    If you miss your target, which you will, even a near miss will leave the target basically unharmed. Even hitting the "dartboard", getting the rock 500m from your target, would only be enough to maybe blow out the glass in the building from the air shock. The target will experience a seismic shock equivalent to 0.9 on the Richter scale. That is, unfeelable. The air shock will be as loud as a busy road, 65dB. If you're super lucky, Putin will get a bit of dust in his eye which will get infected and he'll go blind. Half blind.

    All in all, it sounds like a spectacularly inefficient way of pissing someone off. It certainly wouldn't get the job done of calming or ending him.
    You laugh, but the US Air Force seriously considered the idea. "Rods from God" was the popular name.

    Not very deniable, though. If you blew something up with a tungsten rod dropped from low earth orbit, the proportion of tungsten in the ruins might be a bit of a giveaway, and everyone knows where the satellites are, "secret" or otherwise.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    This just shows how prohibition does not work. And also why decriminalization will not work. Without having a complete police state you can't stop drugs because the profitability is too large. The only way to get round that is to undercut the dealers by giving the stuff, or a viable, less deadly alternative, out at clinics. To be consumed on premises. You then have all the addicts in one place where you can focus on mental health treatment.
    In 1950 there were hardly any heroin addicts in the UK. Whatever policy/policies lead to that outcome needs to be tried again IMO.
    Society was rather different back then.
    Foxy will correct me if I'm wrong but it's my understanding that the side effects of pharmaceutical grade heroin or even fentanyl abuse are trifling compared to those of alcohol abuse - so long as the addict receives their dose for free, indefinitely. Which costs nowt if it's legal.

    I'd far rather be driven by an junkie taxi driver on 50mg of morphine than a pisshead taxi driver on a bottle of Laphroaig and I'd wager the former would be likely to live longer too. As a bonus, opioids deplete testosterone so they probably won't reproduce whilst the latter will be more likely to have damaged sperm :)

    This argument becomes much more problematic when we are talking about more damaging drugs, but I still see nothing other than habit that justifies alcohol being legal and other substances not. And that ignores the clear and obvious right to put whatever you like into your own body.

  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    The last point I agree with - this move, and that speech was a desperate one of a man who realises that he is running out of time. However any decapitation would demand a strong, and probably nuclear response. Russia does not have the resources to subjugate Ukraine without massive conscript fatalities, especially one armed and trained by the UK/USA in counter-insurgency. This entire escalation had no off-ramps, and the only logical endpoint is one that is not overly beneficial to Russia.
    Eventually.
    Even the best begin to believe their own propaganda. See Thatcher.
    That the West is hopelessly woke, weak, divided and effeminate. And wouldn't do owt is an article of Faith. As is Russia as the masters of disinformation. However. They didn't reckon on prebuttal as a policy. Every step the West has been ahead signalling the next move.
    Putin is Mourinho. From another age. His tactics and strategy has been worked out.
    The West won't do anything beyond economic sanctions against Ukraine and certainly not the Russian sympathetic separatist regions but the Baltic States and NATO states are another matter
    Well then they need to pop 20 000 troops in the Baltic states on permanent station and start flying combat aircraft up and down Russia's borders on a daily basis. Putin gets the risk idea well but only if its visible. Look at Syria, the US, the Turks and the Israelis function there with comparative freedom because Putin knows the cost of trying to use military means to stop them.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited February 2022
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    Body language experts will analyse that VT to death in years to come. Despair and reticence in their posture, despite so vociferously backing the annexation of Crimea just years before. Putin's ambitions go far beyond Ukraine, yet their posture speaks of a lack of confidence to be able to successfully subjugate 40m Ukrainians. There's a chance that the conscript bodybags/ashes coming back may do for Putin.
    If someone had, say, a low earth orbit satellite with some deniable psuedo meteorites on board, is it time to drop one in his direction now? What would his replacement do?

    He doesn't seem to be playing chess in the Russian style. It is definitely more Three Pawns Gambit than Giuoco Piano.

    It occurred to me that he might be ill and rushing to create some kind of legacy, although that's probably over thinking it.
    This is a hilarious suggestion, so I thought I'd do some calculations.

    Let's say the "meteorite" is a solid iron ball, 5 metres in diameter. This would weigh some 500 tonnes; an object of that weight would be exceptionally difficult to get into orbit - the shuttle was able to take about 30 tonnes payload.
    The iron would then need to be flung at the earth. Given terminal velocity in air is likely to be a few hundred metres per second, there's no point in throwing it much harder, even if you could (spoiler, you can't). Let's say you SOMEHOW manage to fire this badboy 300 metres per second. It will hit the ground at a bit less than that, approx 220 metres per second. And for maximum impact, let's say it was travelling straight down, that's how you get the biggest crater.
    Give all those parameters, you need to be astonishingly accurate. The crater would be less than 50m is diameter. Meaning you have to get your shot in within 25m of the target from a distance of say 700km (mid range of low-earth orbit). That is the equivalent of throwing a dart from the London Eye and hitting the bullseye of a dartboard on the clock face of the Elizabeth Tower.

    If you miss your target, which you will, even a near miss will leave the target basically unharmed. Even hitting the "dartboard", getting the rock 500m from your target, would only be enough to maybe blow out the glass in the building from the air shock. The target will experience a seismic shock equivalent to 0.9 on the Richter scale. That is, unfeelable. The air shock will be as loud as a busy road, 65dB. If you're super lucky, Putin will get a bit of dust in his eye which will get infected and he'll go blind. Half blind.

    All in all, it sounds like a spectacularly inefficient way of pissing someone off. It certainly wouldn't get the job done of calming or ending him.
    You laugh, but the US Air Force seriously considered the idea. "Rods from God" was the popular name.

    Not very deniable, though. If you blew something up with a tungsten rod dropped from low earth orbit, the proportion of tungsten in the ruins might be a bit of a giveaway, and everyone knows where the satellites are, "secret" or otherwise.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
    Yes, the idea has also been explored in science fiction, like The Expanse, and an Iain M Banks book (I forget which one).
    But there are easier ways given our current state of orbital vehicle capacity and the sheer mind-numbing difficulty of it. I mean, how do you even account for your missile drifting in the wind through 10+km of atmosphere?
    Well, in theory they could be steerable, if your steering mechanism could survive re-entry at Mach 10. The problem being that anything not made of tungsten would no doubt melt pretty quickly.

    It was just an attempt at a more amusing way of asking 'if you could push a button to eliminate Putin with no obvious cause, would it help'?

    Any real attempt to take him out is going to be from much closer range. Although he does seem keen on keeping even his own generals at rather more than arms length.

    Does he have a chef?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    "What I can tell you.
    Grandpa Winston is with 🇺🇦Ukrainians today."

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1495919414935445507

    Igor Kossov@IgorKossov·11m
    Replying to @IAPonomarenko

    We will fight them on the beaches.

    @IAPonomarenko·11m We will fight them on the landing grounds.

    @A1istair·8m Nothing to offer but blood sweat and toil. God save Ukraine. 🙏

    They need all that spirit, and even more.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Andy_JS said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:
    A bit dry for Leon surely?

    Indeed. Perhaps there are ways and means. I have been in the booze’n’pork back room of a supermarket in Morocco, but Iran is presumably vastly worse.
    I have a close friend who speaks Farsi and has spent several years in Iran. The irony is that booze IS genuinely difficult to get, but heroin, cocaine, weed, benzos and now synthetic opioids? No problem

    The Koranic edicts against booze are tipping Iran into a a major drug problem
    Alcohol is also a drug and as harmful if not more so than many illegal drugs. I'm not saying it's sensible to ban it (prohibition is ineffective and counterproductive in drugs policy generally), but I think a lot of people downplay quite how destructive alcohol is. We have a terrible problem with alcohol in this country.
    There really is no comparison between the damage done by alcohol (substantial, I agree but also brings positives) with the apocalyptic disaster of a drug like Fentanyl


    "‘The deadliest drug we’ve ever known’: author Sam Quinones on how fentanyl saturated the US"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/fentanyl-methamphetamine-drugs-epidemic-us
    This just shows how prohibition does not work. And also why decriminalization will not work. Without having a complete police state you can't stop drugs because the profitability is too large. The only way to get round that is to undercut the dealers by giving the stuff, or a viable, less deadly alternative, out at clinics. To be consumed on premises. You then have all the addicts in one place where you can focus on mental health treatment.
    In 1950 there were hardly any heroin addicts in the UK. Whatever policy/policies lead to that outcome needs to be tried again IMO.
    Hangin' and floggin' ?
    But only in the list of brothels the whips supply you with.
This discussion has been closed.