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Great question to the PM from Sky’s Beth Rigby – politicalbetting.com
Great question to the PM from Sky’s Beth Rigby – politicalbetting.com
Q: PM, You've spoken country getting its confidence back. But to scientists, you're clear pandemic's far from over. Are u you anxious rather than confident? [PM: I don't want you to think there is some division between gun ho politicians & cautious, anxious scientists] https://t.co/rEcOWRxsiv
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Today my wife did Wordle in 2.
Yours truly took 5.
Cases dropping like a stone. Spring and the natural decline of such viruses only a week or two away. If there is a new variant of evil proportions, then it will hit in October and not in next few weeks. The vulnerable boosted.
But maybe we need some cheering distraction
The Dildo Knapper's Gazette wants to send me write about flintwork in some corner of Europe, Australia or north America that they feel has been unjustly neglected by travellers
Does anyone have any ideas?
I've just been looking at the list of national parks in Europe for some inspiration. There are 500 or more, most of which I've barely or never heard of
eg these new ones in France:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forêts_National_Park
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calanques_National_Park
How many others must be out there? -
Italy has a zillion national parks:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollino_National_Park
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parco_Nazionale_del_Cilento,_Vallo_di_Diano_e_Alburni
?
Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxon_Switzerland_National_Park
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jasmund_National_Park
And so much more. Has anyone got a favourite secret corner of Europe?
The interplay is something we've not noted much - but what would Sturgeon, Drakeford & co have done without Johnson, and how gung ho might Johnson have gone without the others. Each managed their own stupidities, but overall devolution has pulled each nation to a more middling position which ultimately worked as a strength, and I'm grateful to the devolved governments for the bits of gravitational pull they exerted on the English response. Overall, COVID has shown various forms of devolution in a good light.
The last gamble at Christmas, whatever lay behind the choice, paid off as the impact was low. This decision brought forward may in part be an attempt at distraction, but if so that won't work since if people stop focusing on Covid stuff they will be able to focus on other stuff.
Ultimately if people think the covid situation is bad they will think this move is too soon. If they don't think the situation is bad then even if they are nervous now, they will come to see it as the right move later, as they did in the summer.
Just come. Masked if you like
Far to early to doubt me. Still more than 26 hours to go.
My main concern now is he doesn’t have an accident, fall over a suitcase and out a window choke to death on a pretzel or something, or the MET will be straight round to interrogate me!
The main reason Johnson has cut the Labour lead from 10%+ after partygate to 5% now is he ended restrictions. Thus winning back Tory voters who went to ReformUK or DK after Plan B
Also iSAGE: "By opening up in July the UK is undergoing a wildly dangerous experiment", "Christmas will be a disaster unless we lockdown now" "the modelling is right, the NHS will collapse next week" etc etc
No its not too early. Its about a year late. Should have been done once everyone had been offered the opportunity to be fully vaccinated, instead we've had another year of restrictions and got through the winter which was always going to be the most challenging time.
If not now, when?
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have substantially legislative and administrative autonomy, but they're also yoked to the UK Government's approach by being so dependent on the block grant for funding. It would've been interesting to see what would've happened if they also had significant borrowing powers and substantial control over their own tax base, and could therefore raise the extra funds needed to pursue a more Draconian response.
I consider it highly likely that Wales, at the very least, would've gone into a full panic lockdown in the Dutch mode in the run-up to Christmas, if the Senedd had been able to vote itself the additional funds to restore widespread furlough and support for shuttered businesses.
Piran in Slovenia looks amazing. Inland Montenegro! The north of Calabria where it meets Campania....
Europe really does have a bewildering array of attractions. Sublime
Leave the crowds at Lake Bled and enjoy mountains, meadows and waterfalls.
R is about 0.8 for cases. Anyone want to *bet* that lifting the remaining restrictions will push up R by more than 0.2?
Maybe this is happening elsewhere?
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1495812760390746114?s=20&t=fobHH1_bjugbo0VqYpFCAQ
We will see a 15 point lead by 2024.
Starmer now leading on the economy in a big way
At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (21 Feb)
Keir Starmer: 37% (-2)
Boris Johnson: 29% (-6)
Changes +/- 14 Feb
Tied lowest % to say Boris Johnson in our polling to date.
Rishi Sunak: +4% (-6)
Keir Starmer: -1% (+4)
Boris Johnson: -31% (-8)
Changes +/- 14 Feb
Bye bye Rishi
And because nobody asked, here's Bojo's response.
I'm flyin' around the planet on Boforce1,
I'm telling em all that the time for diplomacy is done,
Liz Truss got a fur hat like Dr. Zhivago
But after Lavrov, I made her travel with the cargo
There's only one man who can deal with this threat
Forget that I'm under investigation by the Met!
I'm chanellin' Winston like it's 39,
I'm sendin' Russia into permanent decline,
When she see me in the streets of Kiev they's cryin,
Rishi's chances of becoming PM is dyin'
We're gonna give Putin a helluva hidin',
(I get all my scripts from Uncle Joe Biden)
Etc.
In fact for all the talk they have made a recovery in polls, they seemed to be slipping away from 35 not closer. That suggest talk of a polling recovery is just spin. 🤔
"Putin Orders Troops Into Eastern Ukraine"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kish_Island
Everybody is going to get covid, its just a fact. Covid isn't going away for many many years ( if ever). 98% of the population have antibodies. Everybody can get vaccinated at any time and 4th shots for vulnerable coming. Antivirals are now available for them too. And the NHS is in no danger of being overrun by it.
So what do restrictions actually achieve, a little bit of curve flattening in the short term?
So as usual over the past 2 years, it is a dumb as shit question from the media.
Or just maybe the numbers are just a response to the shit show of a government in recent times.
Boris - 31
Boris is underwater no matter how you spin it
Our friend Bart, who will appear any second is also right! In a mid term poll in a scandal it can dip lower or Labour have more double digit leads.
The big drop in Boris and Sunak’s rating over 1 week, with no reasoning for it as parliament was closed, I reckon is a rougue poll. Next week has them leaping up for no reason 🙂
Ages, with a modest torture chamber which we were assured was a normal for families in those days (hmm). Thre town looks more touristy than I remember now but the coast was fantastic and maybe this would appeal to you:
https://www.countryhouselefontanelle.it/?lang=en
The most common, and very reasonable , claim by sceptics against his predictions is that they are all very purposely vague and general, and then reapplied to very specific events by the credulous.
Here is what appears to be essentially a joke article from six years ago, which includes a quite extraordinarily specific prediction for this period, which the authors clearly don't know what to make of.
"The false message about the rigged election, to run through the city stopping the broken pact; voices bought, chapel stained with blood, the empire contracted to another one." - Century VIII, Quatrain 20
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/proof-that-nostradamus-actually-predicted-this-years-crazy-election_n_5758381ce4b00f97fba6ce99
Other predictions for the early twenty-first century apparently include that “a great, shameless, audacious brawler will be elected governor of the army” and that there will be a "battle of the sexes".
Even if Boris knows he probably cannot win the next general election now if he drags Rishi down with him and at least rallies the Tory core vote he also knows he can at least stay PM until 2024.
5 years as PM is rather better than 3 years as PM, means he overtakes Heath whereas 3 years means he only ties with Callaghan, Brown and May
Russian peacekeeping troops on their way to the Donbass Republic...
I do hope that President Zelenskyy's safe escape route into exile has been well planned.
As an aside, it is remarkable how much pull the memory of Churchill still has, especially in Eastern Europe. I wonder where the people saying that Trident renewal or the Baltics joining NATO were unnecessary are now.
8:50pm GMT.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1495863414496845826
I am genuinely shocked he had the brainpower to get DDE at his nice private school.
I posted this, a few days ago
Putin's security council meeting
You do realise you have posted “if Boris can’t win, he can at least ensure the Conservatives crash and burn with him” or have I just read it completely wrong?
Brexit or no Brexit, we are extremely fortunate to live in Europe (if no longer politically). By a zillion miles the most compelling and beautiful continent on earth, with a history and civilisation to match.
eg I can't wait to jump in a car this summer and go see bits of France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, that I have never seen before. I've spent 40 years ceaselessly travelling, but there is still so much unnoticed in my backyard: Europe
I only discovered the Vikos Gorge in Greece three years ago
https://www.greece-is.com/walking-in-greece-traversing-vikos/
As magnificent as anywhere on earth
I see that finally, people are noticing that Putin is a Greater Russian Nationalist.
Bit late. But hey.....
Next morning, the view across the lake with a ribbon of cloud hanging in front of the mountains.
The walk to Mostnice. Crystal clear water. Wild flowers. A salamander in the woods.
Beautiful.
If he reads PB he ain’t “getting it” though! We must be laying it on too subtle like.
You reading this Vlad? Fuck off back to hell you ridiculous arch vile! 😆
Though I expect he will not lead into GE24