Categories
Betting on a Conservative poll lead before the first of March – politicalbetting.com
Betting on a Conservative poll lead before the first of March – politicalbetting.com
One of the many good things Smarkets have done is regularly have a market up on opinion poll leads. With eight days left in February I can just about understand these odds but my inclination is to back a Conservative lead this month.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Anyone can apply to join the EU.
But actual accession requires a treaty signed by all members. Anyone can veto.
There has never been any serious likelihood of Turkey joining the EU.
Edit to add:
It is clearly not a lie to point out that Turkey is - and was - an EU membership applicant.
But is is also not a lie to note that Turkey became a membership candidate before Cyprus became an EU state. Which - even ignoring the fact that Turkish membership would be extremely unpopular in 28 out of 28 EU countries - would veto Turkish membership of the EU.
Indeed, Turkey could not technically join the EU right now, because it does not even recognise the government of Cyprus and therefore could not enter into a treaty with it.
So if these quarterly threads are anything to go by we should be betting on Labour to go back into double digits
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/11/21/why-boris-johnson-and-the-tories-may-soon-experience-a-surge-in-the-polls/
In that case, time for Smarkets or AN Other to put up a market on next Scottish Conservative leader, because Douglas Ross’s jaiket is on a shooglie peg.
Apart from his enmity with the Prime Minister, he’s doing a dire job of challenging the First Minister and her team:
Best prices - Next First Minister
Angus Robertson (SNP) 5/2
Kate Forbes (SNP) 8/1
John Swinney (SNP) 9/1
Humza Yousaf (SNP) 10/1
Joanna Cherry (SNP) 16/1
Anas Sarwar (SLab) 16/1
Keith Brown (SNP) 17/1
Douglas Ross (SCon) 18/1
And I thought Welsh politics had a dearth of talent…
Didn't Swinney do the FM job, or lead the SNP for a wheel and make a bit of a bog of it? Or have I mis-remembered?
Must remember that proof-reading is essential, for me anyway, before hitting 'Post'!
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682306/EU-referendum-Brexit-Turkey-membership-talks-European-Union
That summit followed up on another summit three months earlier, which was picked up by the Leave side.
He was also a dismal Education Secretary who was rather fortunate that Gavin Williamson helpfully stepped into every single elephant trap his mistakes had flagged up, rather diverting attention from him.
Mr. JohnL, aye, rainy and 40mph winds here. Which is as bad as it's been, but obviously way lighter than many other places had it.
So saying "Turkey is joining" is technically true, thunderingly misleading, and impossible to clarify in a three word slogan.
All's fair in love, war and democratic politics, and it helped get the result, but it's not really a message to be proud of, or amused at.
The issue was the Remain side then going really hard on it, saying it was a lie, complete rubbish, disgusting that you even suggest it might be happening, oh and by the way we’re having a summit on Turkish membership of the EU next week.
There was an understanding Turkey would never join, because Greece would say no, meaning the UK and others didn't really have to do anything. But they ostensibly supported Turkey joining at some point. Then grew annoyed with this was pointed out during the campaign.
Too clever by half.
Evison did not mention Labour’s opposition to indyref2 as a reason for her departure, but she has backed a second referendum.
She wrote in 2019: “It’s straightforward to me: democracy must be at the core of all we do.
“Recently it has become fragile and we must strengthen it again.
“We can strengthen it by enabling the voice of Scotland to be heard through its formal processes and that must mean a referendum on independence.”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotlands-most-senior-councillor-ditches-26272283
I have many mature trees in and around our garden with complex ownership/liability issues. Some are very tall and close to the building. I was observing them on Friday with great anxiety. I've concluded the ones close to the house must come down. We took down a lime tree that was annoying the neighbour a couple of years ago and the cost was £1200, that was 3 people and 1 days work, with a truck and industrial sized chipper. I guess these people will be busy for the next few months.
All in the name of peace, of course.
Your position is shameful and pathetic to behold.
Ever since Boris Johnson threw the north under his Brexit bus, the dye was cast for a united Ireland. It's just a question of when.
Which raises the intriguing prospect for rejoiners who wish to be EU citizens that if they live in the north then even without Irish ancestry they might be carried back into the EU.
https://news.sky.com/story/sinn-fein-deputy-leader-michelle-oneill-urges-irish-government-to-prepare-for-a-united-ireland-12545895
Their sauce bread contempt.
Their problems sprouted from Brussels.
The whole thing was a plum pudding (that's enough - Ed).
So saying "Turkey is joining" is technically not a lie either.
Turkey was exploring the possibilities of joining. The EU were exploring the possibilities of Turkey joining. There was rather more to it than saying I am exploring how to spend my Euromillions jackpot win.
As ever, it is less painful for Remainers to continually explore how their opponents beat them than consider how they still bankrupted their casino when the roulette wheel was fixed and the cards marked....
*Remainers chose the date of the Referendum
*Remainers chose the question of the Referendum
*Remainers had Govt. supplied and paid for propaganda sent to every house in the land
*Remainers had every major political party saying Vote Remain
Yet, the questionable of status of Turkey's application to join the EU lost it for you. Titter....
World peace is generally maintained when we don't play global moral crusaders. The last time the US-UK did it, on the pretext of false intelligence, lies and the desire to remove a dictator we managed to destabilise the world for at least a century.
So, yes, I'm afraid you have to look at the bigger picture. Drop the global moralising and focus closer to home e.g. our disgraceful facilitation of Russian money and property laundering in the UK.
Had it been a senior Unionist politician that would have been a very different matter. But paradoxically the thought of a government in the Republic led by Sinn Fein will probably make them less likely to say it.
Edited because she's not an MP.
Which has bugger all to do with whether he cares about Ukrainian skins and everything to do with his own skin.
You won!
Suck it up.
I saw the owner of the trees last night (behind and to the side of me half way down). His garden is big as well and he was unaware of what had happened. They only moved in 3 weeks ago so I feel sorry for them.
Anyway, these arguments are now ancient history. Today's problem is Ukraine. It is not looking good.
I suspect TSE is correct in the header and the polls tighten in the event of a Ukrainian invasion. Lots of photo opportunities with military hardware and heads of state await.
Partygate. What gate? Big Dog is saved. Can't say I'm pleased, but any yet to be seen pictures of Johnson downing lockdown yards of ale and dancing the Conga, should they exist, all look rather trivial (even though that should not be the case- he appears to have mislead Parliament) now, in the grand scheme of things. Johnson is indeed a lucky General. Let us hope the rest of us are as lucky too.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10275333/PETER-HITCHENS-Posing-one-tanks-Liz-Truss-not-Iron-Lady.html
If you don't find the current situation in Northern Ireland interesting then fair enough but most people who have studied the province and its troubles for the past 70 years will not agree with you. And the prospect of a Sinn Fein first minister is ... well, wow.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1495320446702694400
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/06252a12-90f1-11ec-8d28-50e05b644342?shareToken=00ce42c823d3bf0e4b9e16dddcb1bd81
And don’t argue with the enormous neighbours.
Now, as we posture as the defenders of Europe against a much-touted Russian threat which may or may not exist, Britain has a mere 227 Challenger tanks and is busy reducing its Army from 82,000 personnel – already a record low in modern times – to 73,000.
If we really believed the speeches we made, would we actually be cutting our Armed Forces as we are?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10275333/PETER-HITCHENS-Posing-one-tanks-Liz-Truss-not-Iron-Lady.html
But just as Salmond's majority in 2011 did not lead to an independent Scotland, so a Sinn Fein FM or for the matter of that a Sinn Fein Taoiseach (which also seems very likely) does not inevitably mean a reunited Ireland.
I repeat, 'politician repeats founding principles of party' is neither surprising nor interesting.
As you may recall I've suggested he might opt for limited incursions but I still think his aim is to force concessions.
But I may be wrong. If I am then at least I got one storm right
Rapid weight losses and gains.
But isolating when not ill? No more please.
Johnson will stop at nothing to save his own skin
I can promise you that the Russian Army continues to have a ‘male-dominated culture’, to put it gently, and does not plan to tackle it any time soon, and I am concerned about what might happen if our feminist forces ever actually clash with it."
However the Conservatives are still no higher than 34% in any poll ie still lower than the Tory voteshare at any general election since 2005 and Labour at 37% or over are still at least 5% up on their 2019 total and polling higher than they have at any general election since 2001 apart from 2017. Indeed Comres have Labour on 41% still ie even higher than the 40% they got in 2017. The halving of Labour's lead might be enough for Boris to save his leadership and premiership for now and for a few Tory MPs to save their seats, it is still not enough for the Tories to be re elected however and keep their majority
In Streetings case it just struck me today that he suddenly looked a lot fatter.
“I don’t think what the country needs right now is a vacuum at the centre of government"
Tory MPs I spoke to this week believe a FPN would trigger 54 letters
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/fpn-boris-johnson-leadership-crisis-conservative-party
Sinn Fein are in the ascendancy and, yes, I do see them having a first minister. What's really interesting at the moment is that both SF and the DUP are calling for the people to have their say in an early election. I'm not sure how long Brandon Lewis can hold this off and the more he does, the more it will make everyone in the north from whatever background angry with London.
I think your hatred is colouring your judgement. Sometimes people do stuff for the right reasons.
Its the classic phony catch 22 - if theres no crisis no need to change leaders; if there is a crisis too risky to change leaders.
Britain is not unfamiliar with scandals of political and royal varieties, but this combination goes to the apex of the state in a way without precedent. We have the prime minister and the [an? ed] heir to the throne involved in investigations by the Metropolitan police, itself so poisoned with scandal that Dame Cressida Dick has been forced to quit as commissioner of the Met. This is happening at a time when the reputations of many other estates of the realm are severely corroded.
These multiple crises in multiple institutions have features in common. One overarching theme is a paucity of high-calibre personnel. Where are the leaders with the quality and strength of character to infuse the organisations they head with decent values? The Johnson government was guaranteed to be engulfed in opprobrium from the moment that Tory MPs decided to give the premiership to an amoral man. The Queen commands huge public respect, but she is notoriously reluctant to confront issues within her family.
Other shared characteristics of dysfunctional institutions are hostility to legitimate criticism, an unwillingness to acknowledge mistakes and a resistance to being held accountable. All these were factors in the Post Office scandal.
The political scientist David Runciman identified another pathology of sickly institutions when he wrote that degeneration is often sourced in “a growing sense of impunity among small networks of elites. As British society has become more unequal it has created pockets of privilege whose inhabitants are tempted to think that the normal rules don’t apply to them.” He wrote that eight years ago and it rings even truer today.
Once upon a time, Britons would have been astonished and appalled to find scandal simultaneously bespoiling their royal family, prime minister and largest police force. We are less shockable now. Where once jaws would have dropped, grotesque misconduct in public life often provokes no more than a fleeting furore or a resigned shrug. That makes us part of the problem, too. When we expect to be let down, we settle for further decay. The British won’t get better service from their institutions until they start demanding it and so insistently that they can’t be ignored.
I was ambivalent. I did nothing to campaign for vote leave. It was a complicated question with good arguments on both sides. But those in Brussels seemed determined not to help the remain campaign here, that is for sure.
Worth noting that the male dominated army hasn't had a great track record in recent times.
The combined Unionist vote of the DUP, UUP and TUV however is 39% still clearly ahead of the combined Nationalist vote of SF and SDLP of 32%. So the Unionists will still comfortably win most MLAs under the PR STV system Stormont uses and vote down a border poll
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/02/14/news/new-opinion-poll-puts-sinn-fe-in-in-pole-position-2588053/
When you discover as big a shit as Johnson you realise that there is nothing he does that doesn't involve thinking all about himself. I sussed this with him quite a while back. So did most people on here. And increasingly so are the British public.
It's why HYUFD is correct. Under Boris Johnson the tories will not win a majority.
If that is not taking advantage I am not sure what is
He could do with calming down a little, tho. Permanent shouty agitation doesn't come across well.
But Boris is not out of the woods yet. As Donald Trump discovered with several judgments against him last week, dangers can converge from several directions. For Boris, partygate lingers on with the Gray report and Met Police investigations running; wallpapergate seems dead; cash for honours is concentrated on the Prince of Wales but can surely spread; the closely-related cash for access lurks in the Sunday papers; Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol are unresolved; levelling up is merely a slogan; prices are up; taxes are up; and he might have lied to parliament.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1495316097855275011?t=3fzFHJcjDRnW7m0k64plvA&s=19
I assure everyone that Boris Johnson will be silently hoping, praying even, that Putin invades Ukraine.
Appalling but undeniably the case.
Same way I'd be unreasonable if I reacted to someone waving a gun in my face and later they told me it was unloaded. How dare I react?