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The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    Might not be quite what you're after, but I'm a big fan of Matt Forde's Political Party. Essentially, he interviews politicians and policy people, including some pretty big names. Robust political interrogation it is not, but that's not the point of it. Rather they're candid interviews with politicians in their own words. Forde himself is a massive Blairite but he interviews people across the political spectrum. The George Osborne interview was a particular highlight.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797
    On the 70,000 + civilians being removed from russian controlled areas of Ukraine - not sure if the point has been made already - but it would definetly make sense if the plan is for the Russian army to invade these areas. Move them safely out the way.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    As it stands, only OGH is going to be watching MotD tonight.....
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    darkage said:

    On the 70,000 + civilians being removed from russian controlled areas of Ukraine - not sure if the point has been made already - but it would definetly make sense if the plan is for the Russian army to invade these areas. Move them safely out the way.

    It would of course have made much more sense to move the Russian army safely out of the way instead.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,734

    As it stands, only OGH is going to be watching MotD tonight.....

    Canaries fans too
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486
    edited February 2022

    malcolmg said:

    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA

    disaster for me my banker horse beaten , and it was my second choice , why do I do it.
    I haven’t had a winner for weeks, now I had 3/4 on a luckily 15. And it was fun.

    We do it because even on a winless day it’s still always a bit of fun?

    I need to get that pizza topping off the ceiling now before the other half gets in. 🤔
    Well, it's £33 you won me, so thanks.
    No worries 🤗

    Was that wholestone?
    Today, I decided to follow a collection of tips on here, but only for pin money. All four of yours. Perhaps I will quit while I'm ahead.
    LOL. not my form of recent weeks that encouraged you I’m sure. 😆

    Did you watch the races live? The winners travelled well and excitingly came through. No wonder the ceiling needs painting.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,734
    darkage said:

    On the 70,000 + civilians being removed from russian controlled areas of Ukraine - not sure if the point has been made already - but it would definetly make sense if the plan is for the Russian army to invade these areas. Move them safely out the way.

    Only a few thousand civilians have moved out, 0.1% of the population of the breakaway republics.

    It's clearly just for show and a Russian domestic audience.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,033

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    CSA vets getting pensions from the relevant States makes sense.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,043

    rcs1000 said:

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Macron would have to drop to third to get eliminated in the first round. That means you would need two right wing candidates with more than 25% of the vote (i.e. at least 50% between them). Their total right now is 47%.

    Unless macron drops to 20% in the polls, I think it's unlikely.
    That's assuming the polls are accurate. And there is still time for things to shift a bit.
    Look, it's possible, of course it is.

    But I don't think that the three right candidates votes are interchangeable: each appeals to a very different segment of the population.

    Le Pen appeals to those forgotten by globalisation. Her support base is the white working class who feel that immigration has driven down wages, while competition from China has driven down the demand for people to make things in France. She used to be Eurosceptic, but now thinks that - so long as she's allowed to run big budget deficits - the EU and the Euro are OK.

    Zemmour appeals to the French intelligentsia who think that they should never have given up their colonies. He thinks France should once again sit astride the world stage equal to the United States. He loathes the EU, and thinks that France should follow a policy of auturky, or self reliance.

    Pecresse is a barely to the right of Macron. She's a broadly pro-EU, pro-business LR leader, who would probably be an improvement over the incumbent for both France and the UK's relations with France. But it's hard to get a fag paper between her and Macron on substantive issues.

    If Pecresse were to drop out (which she won't), I would expect Macron to get half her votes.

    If Le Pen were to were to drop out (which she won't), then I would expect 10% of her voters to stay home, while a little more than half went to Pecresse, and a third to Zemmour.

    If Zemmour were to stay home, it would be a bit more interesting. But only a bit. I think the major beneficiary would be Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who would go from 2% to 7-8% in the polls, with the rest splitting fairly equally between the other two.

    The main contenders of the French right are on about 50% combined. The main contenders on the French left are on about 50% combined. One would need to see the French left's vote split very badly for them not to get one into the final two. And ditto for the French right.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    CSA vets getting pensions from the relevant States makes sense.
    I wondered briefly why the Child Support Agency employed vets, and why in any case they needed pensions...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,962
    "Ukraine to be invaded" record seems to be stuck on a loop.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,043

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    A professional doing a job for a client while they're getting paid generally.

    Considering he's a *former* lobbyist for them, I fail to see how he's bought and paid for. A current lobbyist absolutely is an issue, but why a former one?

    Do you think an advertiser believes for life in every single advert they've designed for a client?
    What's the definition of an honest politician?

    One who, when he's bought, stays bought.
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    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,655
    edited February 2022

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    Point of pedantry, the other party involved is Ross Greer, Green MSP. He would probably resent being caled a nationalist of any stripe, regardless of what the Union flag shaggers say.

    Edit: sorry, I see you self corrected!
    Oh I see.

    It's the 'The Scottish Government will have no liability for state pensions that the Scottish Government will have a liability for' thing, and he's just lampooning the idiot.

    Fair enough.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,033
    Foxy said:

    As it stands, only OGH is going to be watching MotD tonight.....

    Canaries fans too
    They're not singing any more!
  • Options
    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508
    kle4 said:

    I try to err towards "freedom", lack of restrictions and "if in doubt do nowt" but I think that there is a genuine issue with highly disruptive protests. A lot of people simply oppose any restrictions on "non-violent" demonstrations but what about "forceful" demonstrations that limit the freedom of others and have potentially serious side effects?

    Then here is the perspective of maintaining public order when an ideologically motivated minority disrupt the lives of the majority. Without a heavy police presence extinction rebellion and insulate UK would be in physical danger as the public intervened to remove the obstructions in a timely manner. These are not simple matters to get right but not recognising that there is a category of protest actions that lie between peaceful protest and riot/terrorism is naïve.

    But is what is needed new laws, or simply for the police to enforce the existing ones, and the justice system to uphold them?
    A question politicians don't ask themselves enough. Making a new law sounds more impressive.
    A more cynical take would be that grabbing more powers to silence legitimate dissent in the future is more impressive.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,043

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
  • Options
    Green Party spokesman sues after sacking over transgender views

    Shahrar Ali is alleging discrimination of gender-critical beliefs under the 2010 Equality Act, in what could be a landmark legal case

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/19/green-party-spokesman-brings-legal-action-sacked-views-transgender/
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508
    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Lucky guy asked a question that lead to some good answers, yours included. Shame you had to spoil it.
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    YokesYokes Posts: 1,202
    Corbyn is a busted flush. His time, which never should have came has gone. All he is is a talking point and possibly a minor irritation.

    Only a really cack handed approach by Starmer can give the old arse a prominence beyond the wee cult.

    Ukraine. What a difference a week makes. Ukrainian president Zelensky takes Western countries to task over their support and unwillingness to proactively impose sanctions. A week or so ago his administration were complaining that the Russian attack threat was overstated.

    He is not merely a worried man but a frightened one, understandably for his country but also himself because the Russians want to kill him. He has, however, in trying to play down the threat, potentially not been prompt enough in getting the Ukrainian military into gear. Certainly there are indications over the last week that that has changed but armies take time to get fully up to speed.

    Meanwhile Russian media outlets claim Ukrainian shells landed on Russian territory, an evacuation of civilians from the breakaway LNR &DPR have been ordered (though reportedly modestly complied with so far) and there is much talk of the Wagner PMC presence in the area, reportedly to stage their version of the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    Unpopular said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    Might not be quite what you're after, but I'm a big fan of Matt Forde's Political Party. Essentially, he interviews politicians and policy people, including some pretty big names. Robust political interrogation it is not, but that's not the point of it. Rather they're candid interviews with politicians in their own words. Forde himself is a massive Blairite but he interviews people across the political spectrum. The George Osborne interview was a particular highlight.
    Matt was a bit of a protege of mine, politically - a very active helper in Broxtowe. He is fearless at pissing off left-wing audiences in his standup shows by his affection for Blair (rather as I annoy some people with my affection for Corbyn), but he's a really nice guy, and that carries the evening.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Most of the Russian Fake News and Manufactured Incidents falls down if you sneeze.

    Like the repayment building bombings that kicked off the Chechen War. The same buildings where the police arrested some secret squirrel types who were planting... practise bombs for a terrorism drill.

    That's in the league of the fire at the makers of the propellors for the French aircraft carrier - there was a spontaneous fire, in the middle of the night, that destroyed one filling cabinet, out of a whole floor full..... Sadly, this had all the documents.......
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    Lateral thinking required on the pizza-on-ceiling thing.

    You mentioned you brother is into... unconventional finance?

    Has he got any contacts in the art world? - thinking the next Banksy/Jackson Pollock here. Back to physical after the NFT craze....

    The only issue is that if it goes too far, your house might become a Scheduled Monument or something.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,955
    Unpopular said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    Might not be quite what you're after, but I'm a big fan of Matt Forde's Political Party. Essentially, he interviews politicians and policy people, including some pretty big names. Robust political interrogation it is not, but that's not the point of it. Rather they're candid interviews with politicians in their own words. Forde himself is a massive Blairite but he interviews people across the political spectrum. The George Osborne interview was a particular highlight.
    I'll give it a whirl! I don't mind people having an obvious bias as long as they still engage with differing views so I'll see how I go!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    CSA vets getting pensions from the relevant States makes sense.
    I wondered briefly why the Child Support Agency employed vets, and why in any case they needed pensions...
    Some say that the CSA employs people who would have been right at home in the CSA - Nathan Bedford Forrest's bit especially.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,655
    edited February 2022
    Isn't that the same pair as at #sofagate - UVDL (President of "European Commission"), Charles Michel ("President of European Council" ie Heads of Gov) plus Mons. Macron (President of "EU Council")?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
  • Options

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    CSA vets getting pensions from the relevant States makes sense.
    Pensions for Civil War veterans & dependents was a HUGE issue post war, esp as Union & Confederate vets grew older in the latter decades of 19th century. Especially as they & their relatives comprised a significant chunk of the electorate on both sides of the Mason-Dixon line.

    In the North, movement for federal pensions AND pension increases was led by the Grand Army of the Republic (GAR) the first mass veterans organization in American history. GAR quickly emerged as formidable congressional lobbyist AND grassroots adjunct to the Republican Party, esp. the Stalwart (pro-Grant) wing.

    STATE pensions for Confederate vets & etc. became an issue after Reconstruction, as a way of honoring "The Lost Cause" and in response to federal pensions being paid out to Union vets & etc, mostly in the North, but also in the South, to both White AND Black vets. Despite obvious drain on already tight Southern state govt revenues, political pressure for
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Pulpstar said:

    "Ukraine to be invaded" record seems to be stuck on a loop.

    No other tune to play.....
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,739
    edited February 2022

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    UK cases by specimen date

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    UK R

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    Case summary

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    Hospitals

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    Deaths

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    Age related

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    COVID Summary

    - Cases falling, R falling again. Scotland R is falling back as well.
    - Hospital admission still falling. R steady below 1
    - MV beds down
    - In hospital down
    - Deaths down

    image
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    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
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    Thanks again to MALMESBURY for continuing to post detailed analysis!

    ESPECIALLY when it looks as good as it does today!!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    COVID Summary

    - Cases falling, R falling again. Scotland R is falling back as well.
    - Hospital admission still falling. R steady below 1
    - MV beds down
    - In hospital down
    - Deaths down

    image

    Wales, Yorkshire and Lancashire seem to be leading the way back down. NI, parts of N and E Scotland and West Sussex lagging somewhat.

    Hoping to see some serious declines now before the end of the month. Go into March looking much, much better.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,739
    edited February 2022

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    As a sweeping generalisation there is too much 'sweet' around everywhere these days.

    A loaf of bread? Often as not it's been sweetened for some unknown reason.
    Ready made salad dressing or pasta sauce? Always sweetened.
    Anything purporting to be low-fat? Tons of sweetener added.

    There's far too much 'sweet' in food (imho).
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    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Convincing LuckyGuy that anti-Western dictatorships are in the right? Sounds like a hard task.
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    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,202
    edited February 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Most of the Russian Fake News and Manufactured Incidents falls down if you sneeze.

    Like the repayment building bombings that kicked off the Chechen War. The same buildings where the police arrested some secret squirrel types who were planting... practise bombs for a terrorism drill.

    That's in the league of the fire at the makers of the propellors for the French aircraft carrier - there was a spontaneous fire, in the middle of the night, that destroyed one filling cabinet, out of a whole floor full..... Sadly, this had all the documents.......
    They haven't finished yet with the stories. It might be one incident, it might be an accumulation to suggest the LPR & DPR are under such threat that Russia must go in to stop the Ukrainians. Don't be surprised if its a mysterious gun attack rather than a shelling that goes big.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,739
    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,655

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    As a sweeping generalisation there is too much 'sweet' around everywhere these days.

    A loaf of bread? Often as not it's been sweetened for some unknown reason.
    Ready made salad dressing or pasta sauce? Always sweetened.
    Anything purporting to be low-fat? Tons of sweetener added.

    There's far too much 'sweet' in food (imho).
    Feed the yeast...
  • Options

    COVID Summary

    - Cases falling, R falling again. Scotland R is falling back as well.
    - Hospital admission still falling. R steady below 1
    - MV beds down
    - In hospital down
    - Deaths down

    image

    Wales, Yorkshire and Lancashire seem to be leading the way back down. NI, parts of N and E Scotland and West Sussex lagging somewhat.

    Hoping to see some serious declines now before the end of the month. Go into March looking much, much better.
    There seems to be a good correlation between high level of previous infection and low levels of current infection.

    That is to say once everyone in an area has been previously infected current infections will collapse.

    Time to ban mask wearing in the Waitrose belt :wink: so that the process can be completed.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    Yokes said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Most of the Russian Fake News and Manufactured Incidents falls down if you sneeze.

    Like the repayment building bombings that kicked off the Chechen War. The same buildings where the police arrested some secret squirrel types who were planting... practise bombs for a terrorism drill.

    That's in the league of the fire at the makers of the propellors for the French aircraft carrier - there was a spontaneous fire, in the middle of the night, that destroyed one filling cabinet, out of a whole floor full..... Sadly, this had all the documents.......
    They haven't finished yet with the stories. It might be one incident, it might be an accumulation to suggest the LPR & DPR are under such threat that Russia must go in to stop the Ukrainians. Don't be surprised if its a mysterious gun attack rather than a shelling that goes big.
    The problem they have is that they don't have the skills too do anything convincing. They are like the Mafia - subtlety is beyond them....
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    edited February 2022
    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518

    COVID Summary

    - Cases falling, R falling again. Scotland R is falling back as well.
    - Hospital admission still falling. R steady below 1
    - MV beds down
    - In hospital down
    - Deaths down

    image

    Wales, Yorkshire and Lancashire seem to be leading the way back down. NI, parts of N and E Scotland and West Sussex lagging somewhat.

    Hoping to see some serious declines now before the end of the month. Go into March looking much, much better.
    Cases are now falling in all regions. NI has an R nicely below 1, and Scotland seems to be on the way down as well.

    image
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    There is, apparently, work ongoing about identifying targets and making sure they have the right visas etc to cross into Europe. Opposition people from Belarus in Ukraine, especially.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    Lateral thinking required on the pizza-on-ceiling thing.

    You mentioned you brother is into... unconventional finance?

    Has he got any contacts in the art world? - thinking the next Banksy/Jackson Pollock here. Back to physical after the NFT craze....

    The only issue is that if it goes too far, your house might become a Scheduled Monument or something.
    Ha ha. 😂 Creatives need drops of your blood on paper for ideas Malmsy, stronger than LSD. Unconventional everything my brothers wheels and deals, if he gets into art it will be having me forge the Mona Lisa and trying to sell it! Ceiling sorted, I put few splashes of Morlaix, that stuff shifts anything - ideal for cleaning up Celtic art, into a bowl and mopped the ceiling. Fettled.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    Lateral thinking required on the pizza-on-ceiling thing.

    You mentioned you brother is into... unconventional finance?

    Has he got any contacts in the art world? - thinking the next Banksy/Jackson Pollock here. Back to physical after the NFT craze....

    The only issue is that if it goes too far, your house might become a Scheduled Monument or something.
    Ha ha. 😂 Creatives need drops of your blood on paper for ideas Malmsy, stronger than LSD. Unconventional everything my brothers wheels and deals, if he gets into art it will be having me forge the Mona Lisa and trying to sell it! Ceiling sorted, I put few splashes of Morlaix, that stuff shifts anything - ideal for cleaning up Celtic art, into a bowl and mopped the ceiling. Fettled.
    You can still do a tax write off for accidentally destroying a masterpiece.... Did you keep any photos?
  • Options
    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,202

    Yokes said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Most of the Russian Fake News and Manufactured Incidents falls down if you sneeze.

    Like the repayment building bombings that kicked off the Chechen War. The same buildings where the police arrested some secret squirrel types who were planting... practise bombs for a terrorism drill.

    That's in the league of the fire at the makers of the propellors for the French aircraft carrier - there was a spontaneous fire, in the middle of the night, that destroyed one filling cabinet, out of a whole floor full..... Sadly, this had all the documents.......
    They haven't finished yet with the stories. It might be one incident, it might be an accumulation to suggest the LPR & DPR are under such threat that Russia must go in to stop the Ukrainians. Don't be surprised if its a mysterious gun attack rather than a shelling that goes big.
    The problem they have is that they don't have the skills too do anything convincing. They are like the Mafia - subtlety is beyond them....
    Depends who they are trying to convince, if anyone.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352

    Green Party spokesman sues after sacking over transgender views

    Shahrar Ali is alleging discrimination of gender-critical beliefs under the 2010 Equality Act, in what could be a landmark legal case

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/19/green-party-spokesman-brings-legal-action-sacked-views-transgender/

    I've largely avoided getting into the trans debate, but it actually seems to me reasonable that a party which thinks X should be able to dismiss a spokesperson on X who actively campaigns for not-X. Would I be eligible to be a spokesman for the Brexit Party, while advocating Rejoin?
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    The EU does not "need" Russian gas. It can import LNG from elsewhere in the short term and use renewables and nuclear in the longer term.

    As for stopping it starting, Russia's economy is less than a twentieth of the combined GDP of the US, UK, Germany and France. And that is ignoring the other countries. Putin knows Russia would lose a war if we brought our full force, or even 50% of our full force, to bear. The only difference between the two sides is political will.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057

    rcs1000 said:

    It honestly feels like the rebels in east Ukraine aren’t really trying that hard to create a pretext for Russia to invade. I’m not sure how convincing stuff like this is even for the target audience of Russian state TV viewers

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495072940295168009?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    To be fair, it's convinced LuckyGuy
    Lucky guy asked a question that lead to some good answers, yours included. Shame you had to spoil it.
    Weren't you the gent who parroted every single line emitting form Russia's orifice over the MH17 shooting? As their line changed, so did yours...

    And they (and you) were wrong.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Pulpstar said:

    "Ukraine to be invaded" record seems to be stuck on a loop.

    No other tune to play.....
    Yet it is still the right tune until Russia draws back its troops.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    Lateral thinking required on the pizza-on-ceiling thing.

    You mentioned you brother is into... unconventional finance?

    Has he got any contacts in the art world? - thinking the next Banksy/Jackson Pollock here. Back to physical after the NFT craze....

    The only issue is that if it goes too far, your house might become a Scheduled Monument or something.
    Ha ha. 😂 Creatives need drops of your blood on paper for ideas Malmsy, stronger than LSD. Unconventional everything my brothers wheels and deals, if he gets into art it will be having me forge the Mona Lisa and trying to sell it! Ceiling sorted, I put few splashes of Morlaix, that stuff shifts anything - ideal for cleaning up Celtic art, into a bowl and mopped the ceiling. Fettled.
    You can still do a tax write off for accidentally destroying a masterpiece.... Did you keep any photos?
    For sake of numerous anti fraud agencies reading this, including the FBI, I truly haven’t a clue what Malmsy is on about! 🤷‍♀️
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html

    The argument is probably right but that article was largely content free.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486
    edited February 2022
    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Would our own actions, or Russian response, hurt UK business or households in anyway? Does the ground need to be paved for that by the government? The Tory Head of Parliament’s Defence Commitee has already called sanctions wrong and dangerous, but the truth is previous attempts at sanctions have been mixed, not really dangerous to anyone! to put it politely, the banned transferred assets to family members, picked up fake passports, and they and their western associates carried on business as normal, is that true to say? In fact after Salisbury outrage the US banned people the UK wouldn’t even take action about, which seemed odd as they were UK based.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
  • Options
    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    I wasn't aware the Russians chucked in a few quid for Boris' lockdown do.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,043
    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    The EU does not "need" Russian gas. It can import LNG from elsewhere in the short term and use renewables and nuclear in the longer term.

    As for stopping it starting, Russia's economy is less than a twentieth of the combined GDP of the US, UK, Germany and France. And that is ignoring the other countries. Putin knows Russia would lose a war if we brought our full force, or even 50% of our full force, to bear. The only difference between the two sides is political will.
    It's a little bit more complex than that.

    Yes, the EU could import spot LNG. But there is not an unlimited supply of spot LNG (indeed, the quantity is currently quite depressed because US shale gas drilling dropped off a cliff during the pandemic). For them to get the required amounts of LNG would require them to bid up, to take cargoes from other purchasers of spot LNG. (The biggest purchaser of spot LNG cargoes in the world is currently... errr... us.)

    Now, that will change over the coming years, and between now and 2030, the world LNG market will add the equivalent of 1.5 Russias. But in the short term, it would be pretty painful for both Europe (including the UK) and other importers of natural gas.

    It would also, of course, be extremely painful for Russia. Russia is very dependent on exports of natural gas, and players like Gazprom have big (dollar denominated) debts they need to service. Of course, the Russian government currently has big reserves. But history suggests they can be run through surprisingly quickly.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,973
    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    Your average Russian will not give a monkey’s however……

    Think of it like a Scorsese movie. The Don gets things done. He keeps all factions happy with their own areas etc.

    The Don starts fucking up. The next rank or lower level families suddenly see that the police are raiding their gambling dens, shutting down their income. Affecting their lifestyle, arresting their sons because the Don put a hit on the chief of police.

    That’s when the other Mafiosi start talking, complaining. We haven’t got our money anymore and we are under pressure.

    So the Don gets hit and a new guy who has said he will sort it with the police but everyone will carry on like before once this is cleared up takes over.

    It’s not called a Mafia State for nothing. Patronages, money, agreements - everyone accepts the decree of the Don until the Don starts costing them their money…..
  • Options
    Aslan said:

    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html

    The argument is probably right but that article was largely content free.
    Gven that Carville helped drive away loads of working class voters during the Clinton presidency, it's also a little jarring.

    I'm not that old (born 1970) but I remember when the Dems constantly had working majorities in both houses.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    Which is why we shouldn't be aiming at collapsing the Russian economy. It's not the fault of ordinary Russians that this is happening. Hurting the people that keep Putin in power in a very targeted way, that might be more beneficial but slips into dubious legal territory.
    There are just some situations where military means are the most direct way to respond. If the problem is Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, then making sure those Russian are returned over the border (preferably running but if necessary feet first), at least has the virtue of being very specific.

    Immiserating the people of Omsk and Vladivostok seems a little... unfair?
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,689
    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    That sounds interesting.

    Is it now Conservative policy.

    Where is young HT when you need him?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,202
    edited February 2022
    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway. As it is, yet another mark in the column of excuses for Russia to justify an attack.

    Perhaps more concerning, plenty of pictures of Russian military vehicles sporting IFF motifs. For the uninitiated, these markings help make sure you can identify your forces from the enemy. Especially useful when you have a lot of kit in common.

    Finally, the stories are that the US has prepped to support some kind of Ukrainian insurgency. This assumes a) an attack which Russia clearly has in the options and is certainly positioned to do and b) that any attack is a Day-1 full scale invasion of all of Ukraine, which as yet I wouldn't quite be so confident will necessarily be the case, even though all the tools are in place.

    And remember, as I mentioned nearly couple of weeks ago, Sundays are always days to watch.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    Which is why we shouldn't be aiming at collapsing the Russian economy. It's not the fault of ordinary Russians that this is happening. Hurting the people that keep Putin in power in a very targeted way, that might be more beneficial but slips into dubious legal territory.
    There are just some situations where military means are the most direct way to respond. If the problem is Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, then making sure those Russian are returned over the border (preferably running but if necessary feet first), at least has the virtue of being very specific.

    Immiserating the people of Omsk and Vladivostok seems a little... unfair?
    Agreed, raising the cost of a military "victory" is the only way to proceed.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway. As it is, yet another mark in the column of excuses for Russia to justify an attack.

    Perhaps more concerning, plenty of pictures of Russian military vehicles sporting IFF motifs. For the uninitiated, these markings help make sure you can identify your forces from the enemy. Especially useful when you have a lot of kit in common.

    Finally, the stories are that the US has prepped to support some kind of Ukrainian insurgency. This assumes a) an attack which Russia clearly has in the options and is certainly positioned to do and b) that any attack is a Day-1 full scale invasion of all of Ukraine, which as yet I wouldn't quite be so confident will necessarily be the case, even though all the tools are in place.

    And remember, as I mentioned nearly couple of weeks ago, Sundays are always days to watch.

    Also worth remembering Russia is running out of time before the frozen ground becomes mud.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html

    The argument is probably right but that article was largely content free.
    Gven that Carville helped drive away loads of working class voters during the Clinton presidency, it's also a little jarring.

    I'm not that old (born 1970) but I remember when the Dems constantly had working majorities in both houses.
    It wasn't Carville that did that but his adulterous boss exploiting an intern.
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Aslan said:

    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html

    The argument is probably right but that article was largely content free.
    They seem to be fumbling towards - but not yet reaching - the idea that spending four years constantly chanting "Evil Trump; Not My President" might work in the short term, but the next four years (really, two years with midterms coming) need to be obviously better and you need more than a constant chant of "January 6th, armed insurrection".
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    The EU does not "need" Russian gas. It can import LNG from elsewhere in the short term and use renewables and nuclear in the longer term.

    As for stopping it starting, Russia's economy is less than a twentieth of the combined GDP of the US, UK, Germany and France. And that is ignoring the other countries. Putin knows Russia would lose a war if we brought our full force, or even 50% of our full force, to bear. The only difference between the two sides is political will.
    It's a little bit more complex than that.

    Yes, the EU could import spot LNG. But there is not an unlimited supply of spot LNG (indeed, the quantity is currently quite depressed because US shale gas drilling dropped off a cliff during the pandemic). For them to get the required amounts of LNG would require them to bid up, to take cargoes from other purchasers of spot LNG. (The biggest purchaser of spot LNG cargoes in the world is currently... errr... us.)

    Now, that will change over the coming years, and between now and 2030, the world LNG market will add the equivalent of 1.5 Russias. But in the short term, it would be pretty painful for both Europe (including the UK) and other importers of natural gas.

    It would also, of course, be extremely painful for Russia. Russia is very dependent on exports of natural gas, and players like Gazprom have big (dollar denominated) debts they need to service. Of course, the Russian government currently has big reserves. But history suggests they can be run through surprisingly quickly.
    A bit of pain for energy prices in exchange for a democratizing sovereign European country not being collapsed. I don't see how this is a hard choice except for utterly selfish.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    This is nonsense. Regular Russians would know the pain was a direct result of Putin's warmongering. The desire to occupy Ukraine is a project of the elite.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Applicant said:

    Aslan said:

    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html

    The argument is probably right but that article was largely content free.
    They seem to be fumbling towards - but not yet reaching - the idea that spending four years constantly chanting "Evil Trump; Not My President" might work in the short term, but the next four years (really, two years with midterms coming) need to be obviously better and you need more than a constant chant of "January 6th, armed insurrection".
    There isn't a constant chant of that. There is just a very appropriate investigation into that outrageous act, pushed by the last president.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486
    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    I think Elwood’s point sanctions push Putin closer the Chinese, which he claims is bad and dangerous for UK in long run.

    I am not sure I agree everything Tobias has said last few weeks, but he isn’t afraid to totally contradict his government’s approach, I would like to ask him though, not sanction approach then what do we have, because you can’t just let McMafia Bosses get away with so much! 🤔
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    There are fans. In general they tend to be people with both of the following characteristics:
    1. Absolutists who see their ideology as not being fully met in this country
    2. Who think that Putin is either friendly to that ideology or at least the enemy of their enemy

    So people who are fervently anti-Woke and who know enough about Putin that they can identify a similarly reactionary bent in his thought. People who are so completely anti-EU or anti-Britain that they'll happily align with even a fascist if it disrupts the institutions of their hated enemy. Also, people who are prone to nihilistic boredom and just want something to happen.

    Basically, hardcore traditionalist, Brexit, nationalist, socialist, or fascist ultras.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Applicant said:

    Aslan said:

    “Gary Hart told me the smartest thing I ever heard in politics: ‘Washington is always the last to get the news.’”

    "Greenberg said he’s tired of trying to warn Democrats that they’re driving people away. Fretting about the threat of Trumpism, given that the Democrats are bleeding working-class voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, he told me, “If they don’t listen this time, we’re going to end up with fascism, dammit.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/opinion/democrats-biden-voters.html

    The argument is probably right but that article was largely content free.
    They seem to be fumbling towards - but not yet reaching - the idea that spending four years constantly chanting "Evil Trump; Not My President" might work in the short term, but the next four years (really, two years with midterms coming) need to be obviously better and you need more than a constant chant of "January 6th, armed insurrection".
    Irregular verb.
    I put forward sounds arguments.
    You screech about politics.
    They chant constantly.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
    That’s just about fair enough for Pizza Nazi. 😆

    Chicken and sweet goes okay. The sumac has a lemon thing, squeeze of lemon is just a lemon boost.
    Tomatoes are a fruit are they not? What does the fruit bring to pizza? The pairing with cheese, like grapes, figs, pineapple pair with cheese. Fair enough sweet and sour at same time is not for everyone, but salted caramel? Sweet and sour chicken. Worcestershire sauce and cheese on toast. Cheese and balsamic. These things are a proper thing.

    Savoury and sweet. Yum. 😋
    As a sweeping generalisation there is too much 'sweet' around everywhere these days.

    A loaf of bread? Often as not it's been sweetened for some unknown reason.
    Ready made salad dressing or pasta sauce? Always sweetened.
    Anything purporting to be low-fat? Tons of sweetener added.

    There's far too much 'sweet' in food (imho).
    Our don’t feel so sour to post such a savoury response 🙂
  • Options
    franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    Dealing with Putin is always a conundrum as we no so little about what makes him tick. He is the ultimate loner.
    As the old expression goes, 'If you have an argument with a psychopath, either they win and you lose, or they lose and you lose'. A long waiting game is probably the best option.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    Sure, but it is pretty obvious that some people on here have ridiculous levels of skepticism to the West while fawning over every Russian talking point. And they are almost always individuals from the fringe right and left with a grudge against current Western society.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    I think Elwood’s point sanctions push Putin closer the Chinese, which he claims is bad and dangerous for UK in long run.

    I am not sure I agree everything Tobias has said last few weeks, but he isn’t afraid to totally contradict his government’s approach, I would like to ask him though, not sanction approach then what do we have, because you can’t just let McMafia Bosses get away with so much! 🤔
    He comes across as a madman. If any of the players in this conflict are Dr Strangelove it's Tobias Elwood! His eyes work independently of each other. He makes Johnson look semi sane.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,907
    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,907

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    Plenty won't be fans of his, but for reasons of their own argue his side, intentionally or otherwise.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,907
    I'm more interested in how Donbass will vote in the 2024 Russian Presidential election - could be a nailbiter.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,973
    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    edited February 2022
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    There are fans. In general they tend to be people with both of the following characteristics:
    1. Absolutists who see their ideology as not being fully met in this country
    2. Who think that Putin is either friendly to that ideology or at least the enemy of their enemy

    So people who are fervently anti-Woke and who know enough about Putin that they can identify a similarly reactionary bent in his thought. People who are so completely anti-EU or anti-Britain that they'll happily align with even a fascist if it disrupts the institutions of their hated enemy. Also, people who are prone to nihilistic boredom and just want something to happen.

    Basically, hardcore traditionalist, Brexit, nationalist, socialist, or fascist ultras.
    I think a lot of people in Britain respect his (or Russia's ) power .This is a pragmatic approach . The country with the second largest nuclear arsenal and largest exporter of essential energy needs to be respected. When you go into a fight or dispute with somebody you shoudl always think what the worst that can happen to you is if it goes wrong . Many idealistic comments on here but sometimes it is pragmatic to concede idealism .I am sure the western governments (probably in secret collusion with Putin ) will find a way to register a token protest if Russia does invade and that is all most people want - nobody wants their country bombed (conventional or nuclear) for a war far away. Remember if governments can act all superior and nannying and false sincereness about saving lives in a pandemic (whilst having parties ) they are more than capable of speaking behind the scenes to Putin to ask what he will accept as a token "punisment" for invading ukraine. I think Nick Palmer once said on here that classes of people have more in common than their nationality per se .Politicians have more in common with each other than their nationalities also - Johnson is a lot closer to Putin than me for instance
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,762
    Leon said:

    What are the chances?


    Just another coincidence, obviously.

    Nigelb said:

    I'm puzzled. Biden appears convinced that an invasion of Ukraine will happen. Yet the Ukrainians don't seem to be convinced themselves. They seem to be calling Putin's bluff.

    Biden is putting pressure on Putin by making it clear to rest of the world that an invasion is planned and ready to go and all this stuff about RU turning up to support separatists that have come under intolerable pressure in Donetsk is horseshit.
    You mean Biden is saying things publicly he knows isn’t true, but as a tactic to apply pressure and deter the invasion? Okay. If it stops this invasion catastrophe I’m all in. But surely you would stick to broad brush “invasion” if you are going to put out disinformation as a tactic? Washington is now very very specific in their intelligence agencies claims of what is about to happen, Kiev itself under attack in days, a whole scale invasion not an incursion to secure another chunk.

    It does frighten and upset me a bit each time I hear it ☹️
    One thing Biden is trying to do (I think) - he is trying to convince Putin that he (Biden) has the detailed intelligence on what is happening, that Biden is quite prepared for the war and the sanctions and other measures are ready to go.

    This comes of out the "intention phase" in crisis noted by a number of authors on the subject - a problem is often that one side convinces themselves that the weakness in their plan is actually covered by the enemies weakness.

    In this case, a danger is that Putin (or his advisers) will say to themselves - "NATO will do nothing, because if they did, out attack plan would be a disaster for Russian. Therefore NATO will be weak cowards."
    Thanks 👍🏻 US would have one of the best intelligence capacity’s in the world, so when they go granular about blood and logistics, it really is terrorising Western listeners who think invasion is failure of everyone and just horrible I’m sure.
    Shining a spotlight on Russian movements, and being very clear about US intentions is about the best Biden could have done.
    It may be insufficient to deter Putin, but short of WWIII it's about the best we can do.

    I think this is one area where Biden's previous experience has greatly benefitted his administration. He might not now be sharp enough to rapidly respond to novel events, but this is an area of the world he knows very well from his time as VP.
    Absolutely. He had the laptops to show for it.

    I don’t rate Biden’s administration at all to be honest. the supporting cast around him don’t impress either. It doesn’t really matter what Biden is saying, if he’s barking it half patronisingly half unconvincing. It’s only a 4 year administration though, replaced by either new republican or democrat one.
    A bit more than that.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/defending-ukraine/622063/
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,518
    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    There are fans. In general they tend to be people with both of the following characteristics:
    1. Absolutists who see their ideology as not being fully met in this country
    2. Who think that Putin is either friendly to that ideology or at least the enemy of their enemy

    So people who are fervently anti-Woke and who know enough about Putin that they can identify a similarly reactionary bent in his thought. People who are so completely anti-EU or anti-Britain that they'll happily align with even a fascist if it disrupts the institutions of their hated enemy. Also, people who are prone to nihilistic boredom and just want something to happen.

    Basically, hardcore traditionalist, Brexit, nationalist, socialist, or fascist ultras.
    You mean like Farage, and those who see world like him? They Like a hard man. And rather like Trumps appeal being a disrupter, shaking things up, they are attracted to that? Well then, they don’t see Putin properly, he is a fraud at representing traditional values, merely ex KGB bully feathering his own nest, at expense of liberties and freedoms, politically and commercially, of the Russian people! He deserves the backing of no one on earth, west or east.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,486

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
    Wasn’t the big change from the Charge of the Light Brigade (nothing to do with leccy bills) which they tried to hush up, we moved from private armies fighting for us to a professional army more in control of government
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    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
    yes just watch Zulu! BTW I was told that Rourke's Drift holds the record for defence against a superior numbered foe in terms of ratios even more than can be estimated at Sparta
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