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The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com

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    boulayboulay Posts: 3,972

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
    Absolutely - it was just a silly joke about attacking Russian positions that were not militarily sensible…..
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,515

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
    Wasn’t the big change from the Charge of the Light Brigade (nothing to do with leccy bills) which they tried to hush up, we moved from private armies fighting for us to a professional army more in control of government
    Not really - arguably arm reform was pushed forward after the Crimean War on the back of such disasters.... But Nolan (who mis-directed the Charge) was an advocate of Army reform....

    Shades of the Victoria/Camperdown collision, where Tyron who caused the disaster, was a major advocate of Navy reform, including better and de-centralised decision making....
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,515

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
    yes just watch Zulu! BTW I was told that Rourke's Drift holds the record for defence against a superior numbered foe in terms of ratios even more than can be estimated at Sparta

    Colour Sergeant Bourne: It's a miracle.
    Lieutenant John Chard: If it's a miracle, Colour Sergeant, it's a short chamber Boxer Henry point 45 caliber miracle.
    Colour Sergeant Bourne: And a bayonet, sir, with some guts behind.


    Disciplined, trained troops engaging in volley fire versus an infantry charge over broken ground.....
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    Point of pedantry, the other party involved is Ross Greer, Green MSP. He would probably resent being caled a nationalist of any stripe, regardless of what the Union flag shaggers say.

    Edit: sorry, I see you self corrected!
    Oh I see.

    It's the 'The Scottish Government will have no liability for state pensions that the Scottish Government will have a liability for' thing, and he's just lampooning the idiot.

    Fair enough.
    From a total knuckle dragging idiot who has failed to get elected 7 times but got on via the buttlicking list , it is rich to say the least. He has had 7 figures out of the Scottish public for nothing.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,482
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    Sure, but it is pretty obvious that some people on here have ridiculous levels of skepticism to the West while fawning over every Russian talking point. And they are almost always individuals from the fringe right and left with a grudge against current Western society.
    Well, if they feel a kindred to Putin in any idealogical way then they are truly gullible idiot’s - the ex KGB McMafia boss doesn’t have any ideology other than loving power and feathering his own nest. His legacy will be the lack of liberty, democracy of Russia under him in the 21st century and the chaos after his death because he was too full of love for himself not his country to groom a successor.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,875

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway.

    And definitely wouldn't when Russia conveniently has forces close enough to respond to such an act immediately.

    I'm no military expert (my utter failure in games like Thrones of Britannia or Crusader Kings would show that), but even I'd hesitate to charge a larger force which is ready for me.
    The Light Brigade enters the chat…..
    They were supposed to attack a different position.

    Historically, you want 3-1 or better for a successful attack against prepared positions.
    Wasn’t the big change from the Charge of the Light Brigade (nothing to do with leccy bills) which they tried to hush up, we moved from private armies fighting for us to a professional army more in control of government
    Not really - arguably arm reform was pushed forward after the Crimean War on the back of such disasters.... But Nolan (who mis-directed the Charge) was an advocate of Army reform....

    Shades of the Victoria/Camperdown collision, where Tyron who caused the disaster, was a major advocate of Navy reform, including better and de-centralised decision making....
    Tryon, on a point of order.

    What strikes me about that period is the change from the idea that officers owned their positions and could buy and sell them.

    No wonder they needed the Navy - and spent a lot more on it.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,502
    I was a supporter of Putin's actions in Syria because I believed, and still do, that the side he was supporting was demonstrably the lesser of two evils, and the side that we were supporting was the greater of two evils.

    My attitude to Russia generally and to Putin specifically is that they are a foreign, far away country and he's a leader much in the vein of leaders from Ivan the Terrible through Peter the Great, through Lenin, Stalin etc. I am not saying that Russia needs to be lead by a ruthless autocrat, but it is certainly the way it has usually turned out. I don't like it when Putin or Russia do something brutal or cruel, but I am not going to get incensed about it, and sweep equivalent actions by the Saudis et al under the carpet because I am told that I should.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,875
    This thread has ended up in the North Valley.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,759

    MaxPB said:

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    Russia is a country that knows difficulty. Russians would not be deterred by these actions. They will in fact harden in their resolve to see their will done. Sanctions will make Putin more popular.
    I think Elwood’s point sanctions push Putin closer the Chinese, which he claims is bad and dangerous for UK in long run.

    I am not sure I agree everything Tobias has said last few weeks, but he isn’t afraid to totally contradict his government’s approach, I would like to ask him though, not sanction approach then what do we have, because you can’t just let McMafia Bosses get away with so much! 🤔
    He's the guy who wants to send in NATO brigades, isn't he ?
    A real gambler.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Aslan said:

    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Russia has a list of Ukrainian politicians to murder when they invade:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-target-and-kill-lists-of-opponents-invade-ukraine-2022-2?amp

    The personal stories that come out of an invasion will be tragic. They will fully reveal the evil of the Russian KGB regime and be a permanent stain on the West, that we let it happen on our borders.

    How can we stop it happening without triggering it immediately starting?

    Putin knows that as soon as he kicks things off the UK and US will do everything they can to remove Russia from the international community the problem is the EU needs Russia's gas.
    Will "everything" include not taking massive donations from relatives of former Putin ministers to spend time with the Prime Minister? Or will the next PM be continuing the tradition started by Cameron, May and Johnson?
    Banning foreigners from donating to Western parties, freezing all Russian Bank accounts in UK dependencies, canceling Nordstream II and replacing it with new LNG terminals, cutting the Russians out of SWIFT, seizing real estate owned by Russian shell companies. That would collapse the Russian economy.
    I wasn't aware the Russians chucked in a few quid for Boris' lockdown do.
    They have paiud most other Tory things so why not.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    eek said:

    Yokes said:

    Few things of note:

    There seems to be a lot of rumours of the supposed Ukrainian offensive against the breakaway republics starting tonight. This of course ignores the fact the Ukrainians have had some years to do this and haven't, and probably wouldn't anyway. As it is, yet another mark in the column of excuses for Russia to justify an attack.

    Perhaps more concerning, plenty of pictures of Russian military vehicles sporting IFF motifs. For the uninitiated, these markings help make sure you can identify your forces from the enemy. Especially useful when you have a lot of kit in common.

    Finally, the stories are that the US has prepped to support some kind of Ukrainian insurgency. This assumes a) an attack which Russia clearly has in the options and is certainly positioned to do and b) that any attack is a Day-1 full scale invasion of all of Ukraine, which as yet I wouldn't quite be so confident will necessarily be the case, even though all the tools are in place.

    And remember, as I mentioned nearly couple of weeks ago, Sundays are always days to watch.

    Also worth remembering Russia is running out of time before the frozen ground becomes mud.
    Also natural gas demand is quite seasonal. As we get into March, European demand for gas falls quite quickly.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,482
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    Plenty won't be fans of his, but for reasons of their own argue his side, intentionally or otherwise.
    What is his side? Putin doesn’t have ideology. The days of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is long gone, nothing there now to appeal to the ultra left in UK unless they havn’t been paying attention and are truly deluded. As for the faragists, they are just attracted to anyone who challenges and disrupts a status quo - almost like to show us the difference between conservatism and right wing populism. There a third thing, Boris and his government are hated so much for many then whatever He says, I am not.
    Not me. I told Boris to go to Europe and influence them. I am pleased he did. It was a fine speech considering he’s going to be out of a job in just 3 days now.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,515

    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    Plenty won't be fans of his, but for reasons of their own argue his side, intentionally or otherwise.
    What is his side? Putin doesn’t have ideology. The days of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in long gone, nothing there now to appeal to the ultra left in UK unless they havn’t been paying attention and are truly deluded. As for the faragists, they are just attracted to anyone who challenges and disrupts a status quo - almost like to show us the difference between conservatism and right wing populism. There a third thing, Boris and his government are hated so much for many whatever He says, I am not.
    Not me. I told Boris to go to Europe and influence them. I am pleased he did. It was a fine speech considering he’s going to be out of a job in just 3 days now.
    Putin does have an ideology - he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. He is also a thieving, murderous bandit. The two can go to together.

    Otherwise he would be smiling at Germany to get Nord Stream 2 opened up, so that they would be more gas money for his chums to steal....
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,482

    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    Plenty won't be fans of his, but for reasons of their own argue his side, intentionally or otherwise.
    What is his side? Putin doesn’t have ideology. The days of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in long gone, nothing there now to appeal to the ultra left in UK unless they havn’t been paying attention and are truly deluded. As for the faragists, they are just attracted to anyone who challenges and disrupts a status quo - almost like to show us the difference between conservatism and right wing populism. There a third thing, Boris and his government are hated so much for many whatever He says, I am not.
    Not me. I told Boris to go to Europe and influence them. I am pleased he did. It was a fine speech considering he’s going to be out of a job in just 3 days now.
    Putin does have an ideology - he is a Greater Russian Nationalist. He is also a thieving, murderous bandit. The two can go to together.

    Otherwise he would be smiling at Germany to get Nord Stream 2 opened up, so that they would be more gas money for his chums to steal....
    I said before, the Gas thing is a drug pusher. It starts cheap, once dependent, it gets more expensive with all sorts of chores for it.

    I fear I am too drunk and posting too much again and not enough that’s helpful, I need to stop. 🤐
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057

    I was a supporter of Putin's actions in Syria because I believed, and still do, that the side he was supporting was demonstrably the lesser of two evils, and the side that we were supporting was the greater of two evils.

    My attitude to Russia generally and to Putin specifically is that they are a foreign, far away country and he's a leader much in the vein of leaders from Ivan the Terrible through Peter the Great, through Lenin, Stalin etc. I am not saying that Russia needs to be lead by a ruthless autocrat, but it is certainly the way it has usually turned out. I don't like it when Putin or Russia do something brutal or cruel, but I am not going to get incensed about it, and sweep equivalent actions by the Saudis et al under the carpet because I am told that I should.

    Assad repeatedly used chemical weapons against civilian populations. The idea that that is the 'lesser of to evils' is frankly, bullshit.

    And we have still not reached the bottom of the Pandora's Box it opened.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,014
    Carnyx said:

    This thread has ended up in the North Valley.

    Best place for it. Let’s hope the new one is more interesting.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    One wonders whether he will have a "Severed Dreams" moment - start telling the truth until they cut him off..
    "...cut him off" Russian-style?

    I think he'd be well advised to simply resign gracefully at a convenient point and keep his head down for 10 or more years.
    We shouldn’t let him. Like Nazi collaborators they should always live in shame.
    Something in that.

    What about the Putin fanbois on here?
    The same applies to them. Useful idiots trying to wreck the West.
    How can anyone in this country be a fan of Putin! I haven’t read anything on here a fan of Putin or anything he is doing. He’s just a creepy pityless KGB McMafia boss! He’s a Dalek! But Policy’s and approaches not tested can be full of inherent vice, we should be able to ask fair questions without being labelled fan boys and girls - As soon as you can’t question your own governments thinking or divert from their approach without being bullied, freedom and democracy dies!
    There are fans. In general they tend to be people with both of the following characteristics:
    1. Absolutists who see their ideology as not being fully met in this country
    2. Who think that Putin is either friendly to that ideology or at least the enemy of their enemy

    So people who are fervently anti-Woke and who know enough about Putin that they can identify a similarly reactionary bent in his thought. People who are so completely anti-EU or anti-Britain that they'll happily align with even a fascist if it disrupts the institutions of their hated enemy. Also, people who are prone to nihilistic boredom and just want something to happen.

    Basically, hardcore traditionalist, Brexit, nationalist, socialist, or fascist ultras.
    I think a lot of people in Britain respect his (or Russia's ) power .This is a pragmatic approach . The country with the second largest nuclear arsenal and largest exporter of essential energy needs to be respected. When you go into a fight or dispute with somebody you shoudl always think what the worst that can happen to you is if it goes wrong . Many idealistic comments on here but sometimes it is pragmatic to concede idealism .I am sure the western governments (probably in secret collusion with Putin ) will find a way to register a token protest if Russia does invade and that is all most people want - nobody wants their country bombed (conventional or nuclear) for a war far away. Remember if governments can act all superior and nannying and false sincereness about saving lives in a pandemic (whilst having parties ) they are more than capable of speaking behind the scenes to Putin to ask what he will accept as a token "punisment" for invading ukraine. I think Nick Palmer once said on here that classes of people have more in common than their nationality per se .Politicians have more in common with each other than their nationalities also - Johnson is a lot closer to Putin than me for instance
    drivel
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