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Starmer out of line on Brexit with GE2019 LAB voters – new poll – politicalbetting.com
Starmer out of line on Brexit with GE2019 LAB voters – new poll – politicalbetting.com
The above finding is from a new voting survey out from new pollster, Techne UK, that like other recent polls finds a drop in the LAB share. It has LAB 39% -2, CON 34% +1, LD 10%+ GRN 6% =.
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My hope is that the people's voters have maybe learned from their mistakes, and will accept a Labour govt as a necessary precondition to having a discussion about rejoining.
But if they kick up a fuss about Brexit again, then we will certainly not rejoin and will probably have a Tory govt for another decade.
Those who imagine we are rejoining the EU are deluded. The EU wouldn't let us back in, and even if they did it would be on much worse terms than we previously enjoyed.
It's over. Forget it. Starmer is right to move the Party on.
And even if it is - the issue won't be Brexit it's going to be Brexit as a proxy for levelling up which the Tories have simply failed to do.
All Labour need to do is introduce a decent investment policy (and tell the Treasury to butt out because infrastructure projects are long term for multiple reasons including skill retention) and watch the Tories squirm as they try to address it having failed to deliver.
Imagine. The economy is tanking. Migration has plunged. Trade is still suffering. Suddenly Rejoin looks tempting to 65% of the population? What right-minded politician would ignore that?
It’s not probable but it’s far from impossible
It also solves ongoing Irish problems and shoots dead any indyref2
Starmer should finesse his position. ‘No one wants to talk about Brexit now, we need to focus on making life better for blah blah’. Sound brexity but keep options open
After about 2030 we will be so distant from the EU Rejoin will be impossible. You can already feel the Channel widening
Rejoin isn't going to happen (except for Scotland and the Six Counties) but it'll be a gradual reintegration via EEA/EFTA but slowly so people who wear tracksuits instead of normal clothes don't really notice.
We are now in the final phase of trade talks for accession to the CPTPP, which once we join would be a larger trade bloc than even the European Union which would no longer be even in the top 3 trade zones in the world anymore. Plus the CPTPP is much faster growing and has more growth potential too.
To rejoin the EU would mean not just reversing our decision (and convincing them to let us back in) but accepting much worse terms and also reversing all the benefits we accrue from divergence as time goes on.
Now where have I heard that before?
And cosying up to Indonesia and Japan makes little sense, environmentally.
The LDs can get away with a rejoin stance, as most of their target seats are Tory Remain seats in the South, Labour cannot get away with a rejoin stance as most of their target seats are Tory Leave seats in the North, Wales and the Midlands. Starmer might support closer alignment to the EEA and CU, he will not support rejoin the EU or EEA and full free movement again because of the redwall
Labour's stance on Brexit is fine. As a Labour supporter I'd be more concerned about what Labour has said on drug offenders and shoot to kill etc (i.e. the worst elements of 2005-10 New Labour).
1. Not going to vote for Boris in any way, shape or form.
2. Won't vote for a party that tries to dilute the TCA or move closer to the EU or rejoin.
3. Won't vote for a party that doesn't support women's rights properly.
I don't know who will fit that bill.
In fact I’d say regaining the UK - presumably forever - is the ultimate victory for the EU now. Getting Moldova, Serbia, Turkey are not so appealing, at all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPQh1FrbOc0
Wimbledon is a Tory Remain seat higher up on the LD target list than Carshalton and Wallington. Cheltenham, Winchester, Cambridgeshire South, Esher and Walton, Lewes and Guildford are also Tory Remain seats the LDs are targeting with smaller Tory majorities than Eastbourne now.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Agree on Labour
1) With what post-Brexit policy or non policy can Lab/centre left win an election
and
2) What in fact the Lab/centre left coalition's optimal actions and policies would be if they formed a government
and
3) What would they actually do in government
My answer to (2) is EFTA and to (1) and (3) is not a clue. Thoughts?
Charlie Best (Lib Dem) - 1683
Ollie Curtis (Con) - 1423
Harry Edward James (Lab) - 337
Kate Jones (Green) - 124
The former Tory councillor had moved to Norfolk though.
His hope will be that he can keep irreconcilable Remainers on board by promising to cooperate with Europe, rather than grandstand and pick fights.
He probably wouldn't be able do anything too radical (which likely will be piss off the Corbynites), but Starmer would probably get through most of the policies he'd want to enact in a hung parliament.
Had a red warning here some time ago (wind) and that was not a pleasant night's sleep.
The Blue Wall and the PM suddenly look very secure!
Be interesting to see what the Lib Dems make of this, all going pear shaped for them in one week.
They must regret not fighting Southend West and the impetus that would have supplied.
The tree has a lot of leaves - in February. Is this #eunice?
https://twitter.com/Marckonijn/status/1494621266384506881
In that particular case I'd say that the roots on the windward side look to be constrained, and I wonder if road works have restricted them and reduced the tenacity.
The rootball does not seem to have lifted any part of the pavement - just up to the wall.
Can anyone identify the species? I might say a type of the fir that they have on the coast at Poole Harbour. Long branches with bunches of leaves at the ends looks very distinctive.
The French are quite content to have the UK as an old enemy across the water that they can pick fights with, plus we constantly opposed their ambitions in the EU and now we're not doing that anymore.
EU accession might suit some EU bigwigs but it requires unanimity. The French would unambiguously respond "Non" to any English/British EU accession request in the foreseeable future. The likes of Macron would delight in following in De Gaulle, and there's a heavy French line of thought that De Gaulle's successors allowing Britain into the EEC was a terrible mistake.
You could always live stream it, though ? Seems to be a market for it.
You won't get that through Westminster.
My thinking is very much along the lines of Max's too, on all 4 of his point (including the 3 plus not RefUK).
If we sort ourselves out while outside the EU then we can negotiate from a position of strength. I'd rather negotiate a genuine Union between Britain and the EU, rather than simply us joining their club. That can't happen from a position of weakness.
I see he's going to make a speech definitively distancing himself from previous manifestos and commitments net week, which will no doubt annoy some of us Corbynites further, but to be honest the same applies there. If Starmer said "We might still renationalise water" I wouldn't believe it, and I'd rather he was honest about what we will do without trying to flirt with all sides.
The CLP has a guest talk from John McDonnell on Thursday (we are eclectic - had Jess Phillips recently putting a no-nonsense centrist view). Will be interesting to see what he makes of it.
They read out a message from him at the Stop the War Coalition meeting.
Getting very very blustery now here in the north midlands.
When it happened to me it was Hurricane Hugo on my honeymoon...
Staus quo is implausible- a hefty majority think Brexit is going badly, a comfy plurality think it's a mistake, a significant minority would rejoin tomorrow given a chance. In democratic politics (unlike family mis-planning), we seek to reverse mistakes.
A Brexit on top of the Brexit is implausible- it does nothing to solve the actual problems.
Full-fat rejoin is implausible- partly because of Schengen and the Euro, partly because of the mutual lack of trust, partly because Brexit is all some Boomers have achieved in their lives and they are desperate to protect their legacy.
EEA, even EEA-alike, is implausible- it's one thing for Norway (population 5 million) to give up its direct political input to have more independent action. The idea that the UK (population 70 million) could do the same and not experience it as an embarassment is for the birds. Whatever it is, it's not Taking Back Control.
And yet, once the Hannan fantasy of the UK leading some other like-minded nations out of the EU (with the UK leading, natch), those are basically the full spectrum of options. All of them are implausible to impossible, and yet one of them (or something like them) has to happen next.
People may like to gripe and grumble but there's no overwhelming evidence of people wanting a change or to refight Brexit debates. Sheer inertia leads to the status quo being the default.
That only a plurality, not even a majority, think that Brexit is a mistake let alone want to reverse it means that inertia will rule the roost for many years to come - and as time goes on people will forget about Brexit and look to other fights of the future instead of the old ones of the past.
From both sides.
But the national polling picture may still be awful because, well, Boris. These MPs might need even longer to think about it....
I wonder if there will ever be one called Monica?
Flew back from S.Africa in one, remarkably peaceful inside.
If I was a conservative mp I would wait until the results of the Met investigation and Sue Gray's report are known and decide just how much longer they can wait once this is out in the open
If you and Max support FPTP don't whinge when you only get a choice of Labour or Tory in the vast majority of seats, if we had PR you would have a much wider choice of parties to support who could win seats.
I have always been agnostic on PR, I even voted for AV in the referendum on voting reform in 2011, I am not a FPTP diehard
The current arrangement will be tweaked, but its in general the right ballpark that most people will be content with. A trade agreement, but no formal membership. The trade deal can be tweaked as time goes on, but that's evolution not revolution.
The only thing likely to be radically revised is the Northern Ireland Protocol which of course was written before the TCA and doesn't make sense post-TCA to still be stuck with it.