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Johnson’s survival over past month is bad news for Sunak – politicalbetting.com
Johnson’s survival over past month is bad news for Sunak – politicalbetting.com
Just cast your mind back to the end of January when “partygate” was at its height and the prevailing assumption was that Johnson would not survive with the likely successor being Rishi Sunak. That’s not happened. Johnson set up the Gray investigation which was then taken up by the Met all taking the immediate sting out of the whole business.
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Kind if reassuring, remembering life before pandemic.
Are you calling
a) No Russia invasion of Ukraine
b) Johnson gets removed after the May elections?
b) short of proven illegality in the interim, I think so yes. Too many of the public are a bit fed up of him and as soon as the vote winner goes to vote loser, that will get the MPs off the fence and use a crap result as a way to clear house.
Meanwhile likely to be a Red Warning from the Met Office for southern Britain tomorrow.
Will the wider country really want to keep talking about 2020 birthday cakes for much longer, even if the Lobby think it’s the most important thing going on in the world right now?
Sunak’s chance of being next PM I think disappears after the May election. His reputation is going to quickly go from being the nice guy handing out piles of money to get us through the pandemic, to being the nasty guy raising taxes while bills are rising.
That said, he’s still young (41) and will have other opportunities in the next couple of decades of leadership contests.
Your third and fourth paragraphs are contradictory and contain an inherent issue. We're not talking about leadership but about PM. As William Hague discovered, being elected leader at the wrong time is a cul-de-sac.
Sunak will be associated, tainted, with this Government so I think he has already missed his chance. But even if he is elected tory leader after the next election, the country will have moved on.
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1494032978548248578
I agree with Mike, the value is on Starmer. Sunak has missed his chance and it won't come again. Indeed I expect him gone in a reshuffle this year, replaced by a plodding yes-man.
The people who wanted rid of Johnson have already tipped their hands and they are insufficient to do the job. They'll now bury their differences with him and trudge on. I believe that the PM has already been invited to address the Scottish Tory conference and there's no sign of any further defections: I suppose it is possible that one or two of them will decide that they're safer following Christian Wakeford across the floor, but it's also quite possible that he'll be the first and last to do so.
Whatever. The rebels, such as they are, will all end up prioritising career over principle. All politicians are basically the same.
He isn't going to be so popular once the tax rises bite.
So any Chancellor he promotes is an immediate and serious threat to him. And there is no way Johnson can deal with that.
Now, his future is tied to Johnson. If he wasn't willing to jump ship during this fiasco it is not obvious how he credibly can in the future. And if Boris is voted out by the MPs before the next election is someone so obviously tied to him the answer? I have my doubts. He's a sell.
I know you are a long way away and don't seem to share the majority opinion that a lying crook in Downing Street is a bad thing. So I understand your question even if I sadly shake my head when I read it.
I think what's different this time is it is so directly personal to so many of us. Particularly as flouting of the rules and then lying about is so very widespread in government - it's not only Johnson that's been doing it, Sunak, Cummings and at least one entire government department are arraigned in the dock as well.
This saga is damaging the credibility of the entire system of government. And while Johnson is a big part of it, he's not the only part. That also means his removal, while clearly necessary, won't in itself restore trust.
It's always a fuss over cakes for him.
Good morning everyone!
Yes I know the SNP have their own issues (to put it mildly!!!) but that is a government that we can remove from office. We can't remove the Westminster government. Have just seen a clip from the Scottish version of Question Time. Commentator points out that for 29 years of her 43 years Scotland has had a government that we didn't elect.
If those governments are seen as "not what we wanted but honest" that is very different to "not what we wanted, they're openly corrupt and dishonest, run by a liar and people in England think thats OK". As you said, this is an existential threat to the entire system of government and the state itself. And not just in Scotland. Ireland is likely to very soon have Sinn Fein on power on both sides of the border...
And now his latest wheeze. Having successfully lobbied the palace to serve (a dreadful excuse for a ) Parmo, he is now embarking on a surgery tour. In the pub. Called "Beer Matt" He is well known to like a shandy and is now going to get us to pay for them as he gets raddled doing "work" with constituents.
https://www.facebook.com/mattvickers.stockton/posts/361279805818664
We saw it almost daily during the pandemic press conferences, with the most stupid, scientifically illiterate questions and media obsessions, it’s really not healthy for the country.
A parliamentary system built on the assumption that ministers do not wilfully lie requires at least minimally plausible deniability.
In one sense it is, as Sandpit insists, a relatively trivial matter - if he'd held his hand up and apologised right at the start, it would have been a week or so of bad press, and then forgotten by most.
Too late now, both for him and probably for the party that has missed its chance to be rid of him.
https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1494162651991187458?s=21
But the damage on spending is done - any money announced from now on won't be spent in time for the improvements to be seen and a lot of people have already caught on to the fact Bozo and co now announce the same money being spent multiple times (and every time they initial claim its brand new money).
They voted Tory for the first time to make their parts of town less shit. Only to see Beer Matt secure money and spend it on Yarm. Yes there is definitely some double / triple / quadruple spending of the same towns money going on. But when even the fictional money is being spent on the posh areas that don't need it my former council constituents will know they've been had.
To become Tory leader and PM Sunak either needs Johnson to be fined by the Met Police, in which case even loyalists like IDS have said he might have to go, while avoiding a fine himself or he needs the Tories to suffer heavy losses in the May local elections and for Labour to widen its poll lead. Then if more Tory MPs fear losing their seats they could turn to Sunak to save the furniture
https://www.ft.com/content/7d10aef7-1ed5-4e0d-a128-858cd0b2e2f0#comments-anchor
The millions in donations is of course entirely coincidental.
Given the Tories will continue to refuse indyref2 as long as they are in power and Sturgeon has ruled out UDI however there is no prospect of independence under the Tories. If Starmer becomes PM reliant on SNP confidence and supply though indyref2 does become more likely and certainly devomax.
Sinn Féin may well be the largest party in Ireland and Northern Ireland but that does not mean they will govern. On both sides of the border they use PR. In Ireland therefore FG and FF combined will still likely be more than SF and in NI the Unionist parties combined of the DUP, UUP and TUV still will have more seats than SF and the SDLP on current Stormont polls. In any case the DUP have also effectively ruled out restoring the Stormont Executive anyway until the UK government invokes Article 16
Don't forget who the real enemy is!
I know people have said that it will be bad for Sunak to be Chancellor when NI goes up, but I wonder whether one calculation for him was that he had to be "forced" to put up NI before becoming PM, so that as PM he could take the credit for cutting income tax before the GE. If he became PM too soon he wouldn't be able to blame Johnson for the NI increase.
Genuinely good, I disagree, but YMMV. I would agree he was an improvement on the previous MP, but that was a low bar. Don't know a great deal about Vickers. Doesn't seem to have much prominence locally.
#SputnikBreaking
sputniknews.com/20220217/ukrai…
https://twitter.com/sputnikint/status/1494215992599363588?s=21
Oh and Stormont is now completely dead because SF will be First Minister next time around so the DUP will do anything and everything to avoid that fact becoming reality.
You also ignore - for once the wider point that the people of Scotland are fed up of having stuff imposed on them. Especially when what is imposed is lawlessness lies and corruption all of which you endlessly post your support for.
In Ireland I am talking after the elections when it seems likely that SF will win power in north and south. You are saying that they won't - perhaps. But perhaps not. And if they do? If the people on the Ireland of Ireland vote in a republican party pledged to holding a border poll? What you think won't matter one little bit - as it doesn't up here.
1 Little Rishi is afraid of Big Dog.
2 Rishi expects defeat in 2024; if he takes over now, he fears a short Premiership.
3 He's waiting for someone else to take the flack for knifing BoJo, then he takes over by acclamation. Basically, he wants to expend as small an effort as possible.
4 Something else.
Somewhat off topic did anyone else listen to Jacob Rees-Moggs' interview at Felixstowe yesterday? He seemed to be implying, quite strongly, that the EU regulations that exporters were complaining about had been specifically enacted to 'punish' the UK, as opposed to being the same regulations that all non-EU importers faced.
Which might suggest an election topic.
Unless you want to start something.
What makes things really interesting is that the Scottish Tories know there is a problem. Almost unanimously (with the exception of that toadying lickspittle Duguid) they have denounced the lying crook. Will it save their councillors? I hope not. But its the best shot they had, and has to be seen as the nuclear option that it is.
Or appreciation of wine.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1494218484854796288
Asking someone if he went to any parties, him saying no, then saying that you had a birthday cake for 10 minutes two years ago, you’re a lying liar who needs to resign, is in my mind taking the piss.
Now he was there for the birthday party for the PM where our poor and unsuspecting PM was ambushed by a cake, but given the various vantage points from the Downing Street complex, Sunak is likely to have seen evidence of parties.
So point 2 applies as well as point 4, if Sunak ousts the PM over parties and Sunak himself is damaged by the parties then his Premiership might be shorter than the Anglo-Zanzibar war.
It’s all part of the SNP’s othering and grievance mongering.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrion_Lannister
This is pricing the current set of er...... problems..... for BJ.
How many people think that no more will emerge?
Also states Labour Shadow Cabinet Ministers have been getting to know Davey's team in case there is a hung parliament and they need a confidence and supply deal. Suggesting if there is a hung parliament the LDs would definitely back Labour this time unlike 2010 when they backed the Tories
At the election in 2020 FF & FG combined won 73 seats, which was not enough to form a government alone, and they would have won fewer seats had SF stood more candidates. The current three-party coalition had 85 seats after the election, and so does not need to lose many seats at the next election to fall below the 80-seat threshold for a majority.
The most likely outcome after the next election is that SF gain seats at the expense of the governing coalition. This is likely to mean that a government without SF is not possible, and the question will be whether SF can form a government by doing a deal with smaller parties, such as Labour, or if they would need to form a coalition with FF.
Of course, there might be all sorts of changes in political opinion before the next election, but FF & FG having more seats than SF after the next election wouldn't be enough to keep SF out of government.
They seem to be assuming if BoZo survives this he isn't going to pratfall again.
And Dom is unlikely to have given up...
Even if every person in the Republic of Ireland voted SF it would make no difference to Northern Ireland's future as that is up to Northern Ireland to decide not the Republic.
There will be no border poll in Northern Ireland meanwhile as long as Unionist Parties continue to win more seats than Nationalist Parties at Stormont and vote down a border poll and as long as the Alliance continues to oppose a border poll. Even if SF wins most seats therefore that would be irrelevant to chances of a border poll which the NI Secretary would still refuse to grant as long as most Stormont MLAs also opposed it
If there is no Stormont Executive as there won't be as long as the DUP stay out, then there will be no NI First Minister anyway