Putin is playing the West like a fiddle at the moment isn't he. Western leaders queuing up to meet him, one by one.
Only one country Putin wants to hear from and that's the US, the rest can talk and suggest all they like. The one country that hasn't rushed to his door is, funnily enough, the US.
Patrick Cockburn in the “i” has been writing ‘Putin is the biggest winner so far’ articles all week.
“In the last few weeks, the benefits to Russia from its sabre-rattling must have far exceeded the Kremlin’s expectations”
But one point he makes I do agree with - to initiate military conflict Putin has to have two basic things, clear goals to achieve, and an exit strategy - what an idiot if he invades with neither, a full on invasion of Ukraine will end up in an open ended mess. However if Putin continues to get more European and Ukraine support for implementing Minsk Protocols II - particularly Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy - he has something tangible to work with without lumbering himself with a mess. Rather than craving dialogue with Washington, Putin’s design could be to court EU member states instead and distance them from London and Washington to diminish influence of Washington and London. Arguably Washington and London are doing plenty to help Putin, like how Aukus embittered the French? the Afghan debacle wounded Bidens credibility and weakened him? Brexit?
To say Brexit has played into Putin’s plans will be controversial for many - but in situations like this you need to stand together, speak as one, act as one, anything gets in the way of that doesn’t help? So do we need to hear Boris and Truss talk up togetherness with EU countries a bit more? Visit them for talks on this a bit more?
This is your typical idea that the EU is some kind of important superpower when it comes to situations like this and Brexit being important in regards to anything you care to mention because you cant help but wedge it in to every conversation like a religious nutbag who mentions god every two minutes and would probably relate to god to when having a dump.
The Europeans do not even underpin European security mechanisms on their own and would be useless if they did, The US underpins European security mechanisms and the Russians know that. The Germans & French can knock on about trying to persuade Ukraine to accept the Russian Interpretation of Minsk II but if the US doesn't come along then it wont matter two hoots. If that was all it took, Berlin & Paris having a word with Ukraine, then there wouldn't be 150k Russian troops, representing around 70% of their combat power, around the Ukrainian border.
Russia already knows the Germans & French aren't really players and will have to be dragged along kicking and screaming into united action against them. Peeling them off isn't actually going to get much gain for Russia because it had Berlin in its pocket from way out anyway and it knows the French will pursue their own corner.
You don't think Macron didn't float some plan to Russia? He did, and Russia clearly didn't buy in because talk is cheap and the French alone, nor in tandem with Germany can deliver what Russia is after.
Much of the stories of Russian forward positioning come from one particular front, North/North West of the 'breakaway' republics of Luhansk & Donetsk. In that area less than 20-30 miles from the Ukrainian border is believed to be large elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, the heaviest concentration of tank and armoured units of the assembled Russian forces around Ukraine
South of that area, in a straight line, is the largest single concentration the Ukrainian military, based in and around the contact line facing the two breakaway republics. Drive down east of that line, you occupy the breakaway republics. Drive west of it & you potentially cut off that large group of Ukrainian forces from the rest of the country.
Thanks to the wonder of aircraft tracking websites its perhaps notable that this area appears to be of particular interest to the now nightly US drone flights.
Tonight’s drone, Forte11, is out having fun as usual. Surprised it’s not been further East, right up to the border at Luhansk. Presumably it’s close enough to get some good photos of the situation, and identify movements in the Russian units.
@Gardenwalker - I’m much more confident of seatbelts benefitting others than I am about COVID vaccines.
Ha. Interesting.
I’m a big vax fan. I think you have to work hard to show how we get through the pandemic without mass vaccination.
I’m in favour of most means to incentivise vaccination, but stop short of compulsory vaccination, except for health workers (who have an obligation to the sick).
It’s interesting to see how haphazard various governments have been in their application of covid rules, whether from a liberal perspective or indeed from an epidemiological perspective.
New York ended its “mask mandate” last Thursday, but my apartment block only did the same today. Mask wearing in New York seems much more enthusiastic than it was in London.
Oh I don’t deny that the antivaxxers are bloody lucky that there aren’t too many of them otherwise it would have taken a long time to get through this (repeated lockdowns and reopenings until enough people had some immunity). Indeed, Sajid Javid made precisely this argument in respect to Djokovic.
But I’m not sure quite what’s to be gained from caring about COVID vaccination status, to be honest.
I’d argue there’s much more of a case for saying that not getting your child vaccinated (MMR etc) should be considered child abuse.
I have a practical example in my own life worth sharing.
The school has made it compulsory that my 7 year-old daughter get her second vaccination by the end of this month. The reason is that she cannot use the YMCA facilities without it.
I don’t believe there is any epidemiological rationale for a second vaccination (and I’m not even sure about the first, which we had to administer at the beginning of January).
My wife - not an instinctive rule breaker - has suggested we forge a second vax card, and in discussion with another set of parents it seems they have similar thoughts.
It seems possible too that the YMCA will drop their requirement very soon. It will be kind of insulting to be forced to subject my daughter to a medical requirement which may be shortly abandoned…
🤔
Second vaccine: exposing the natural immune system to the spike protein multiple times seems to incentivise the memory B-cells to ring the potential changes on the spike protein and broaden defences aainst potential variants.
It also reinforces and increases protection against severe disease, and we're now seeing that the more vaccinated you are, the less chance of having Long Covid.
Comments
The Europeans do not even underpin European security mechanisms on their own and would be useless if they did, The US underpins European security mechanisms and the Russians know that. The Germans & French can knock on about trying to persuade Ukraine to accept the Russian Interpretation of Minsk II but if the US doesn't come along then it wont matter two hoots. If that was all it took, Berlin & Paris having a word with Ukraine, then there wouldn't be 150k Russian troops, representing around 70% of their combat power, around the Ukrainian border.
Russia already knows the Germans & French aren't really players and will have to be dragged along kicking and screaming into united action against them. Peeling them off isn't actually going to get much gain for Russia because it had Berlin in its pocket from way out anyway and it knows the French will pursue their own corner.
You don't think Macron didn't float some plan to Russia? He did, and Russia clearly didn't buy in because talk is cheap and the French alone, nor in tandem with Germany can deliver what Russia is after.
"EIon Musk added you to their List 100,000 ETH Giveaway"
Not sure what it means. Maybe a scam of some sort.
It also reinforces and increases protection against severe disease, and we're now seeing that the more vaccinated you are, the less chance of having Long Covid.