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Rishi drops below 30% in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Rishi drops below 30% in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Today’s news on the timing of the Gray report has led to Sunak dropping below a 30% chance in the next PM betting. Clearly, his position had been underpinned by the likelihood of an early vacancy and the latest machinations reduce that possibility.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-10452333/Wayne-Rooney-reveals-REJECTED-chance-interviewed-Everton-job.html
Apparently not!
Miliband was unable to force Brown out pre 2010 as Sunak is unable to force Boris out now. In the end Miliband not only failed to become PM he even failed to become Leader of the Opposition after his brother beat him for the leadership after Labour lost power
GAME OVER.
Though Portillo has had a successful post politics career doing rail programmes and Miliband is head of international rescue in Manhattan so all not lost for Sunak longer term.
So, either Sunak doesn't have that many supporters who can be trusted with such a request, or he chose to stay his hand.
Of course the wording of the question comes into play, but no one seems to have considered the possibility just outlined.
I had thought that Johnson had so little committed support within the Parliamentary Party that if ever things turned badly against him he'd be quickly defenestrated, but he's looking harder to dislodge now.
Therefore this sounds like some clumsy attempt to smear him by Borisovians
“That's good. But for how long?
“Several years ago I was in Crete - beautiful - but I was dismayed by the number of estate agents offering coastal sites for sale. They were all English-language promotions so clearly going after Brits seeking the good life. It was pretty clear that the remaining undeveloped coastline was likely to be wrecked before long.
Fortunately the Cretan interior is pretty dramatic and for most of the holiday that's where we headed. White Mountains etc. Just such a shame about the fate of the coast.”
++++
Yes, Crete is a good example of touristic spoliation. All those lovely Venetian towns along the north coast, now essentially ruined by a long stream of tourist tat. Horrible and sad
Thailand is another example: destroying island after island, like there is an inexhaustible number. There isn’t. It’s like the hunters who believed the American buffalo were infinite in number, even as they shot the last great herds
If there is one upside to Covid, it may be a rethink of the way we are fucking up all the nicest corners of our planet. And yes, I know this is hypocrisy, as I earn money visiting them
My humble prediction is that the drip drip of allegations and insinuations will ensure he ends up with a terrible result in May. MPs in more marginal constituencies will apply the swing to their GE result and take action. Whether it will be too late to prevent a Labour win at the next GE is open to conjecture.
* Reducing cost of living (38% to 21%)
“Levelling up” Britain (44% to 14%)
Managing immigration (32% to 23%)
Reducing crime (29% to 25%)
Improving the NHS (45% to 18%)
@IpsosMORI poll in @EveningStandard
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/more-people-trust-labour-than-conservative-party-national-insurance-boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-b979333.html
Damning in some circles, certainly.
That's my understanding. It's a bit squishy, and I'm assuming BJ is a bit difficult to dislodge and may not actually offer his resignation to the Queen, either upon losing the Party Leadership or de jure confidence of the Commons. In either case, I don't think it matters too much, despite being pretty shoddy behaviour.
When the time came for him to step up, he hesitated.
“Not really. If you spend money on holidays, for a family, you tend to end up in something like that. Unless you really fight the demand for luxury bathrooms etc.”
+++++
I do not wish to pry into PB-ears private circumstances, but this is an intriguing comment
If you had a family holiday here - the Galle hotel we have been discussing - you’d need three rooms for yourself, one for you and the partner, two for the kids
But let’s budget and say just two rooms, and the kids share
Rooms are £500 a night. That’s £1000 a night. For two weeks that’s £14,000. Add in flights to Sri Lanka, trips, and the rest, and you’re heading for £20,000. For a winter holiday
Exactly how wealthy is the average PB-er?!
There is a time and tide and so on.
It's naive to think that there aren't at least a few MPs who are bought and sold for Russian gold. This is an issue for the government on two levels: one, as a party it needs to manage its resilience to attempted infiltration, same as any party. And two, as the governing party, it needs to be working with the security services to detect and deter approaches to all Politically Exposed Persons, regardless of party affiliation (if any).
It has seemed in recent years that the government is at best too relaxed about the issue, and at worst sees partisan advantage to turning a blind eye. The former is inexcusable, the latter, worse.
* Although the rules don't apply to him it seems.
Should be under 4/1, imo
Alternatively, just lay all the front runners, bar Keir.
I recall a birthday party a few weeks before the referendum where the room contained about 5 people in the top 100 Sunday Times wealthiest people thing. All were Leave
Idyllic when I went as a kid in the early 70s; well on the way to despoilation before the end of the decade.
Still, if universal prosperity eventually leads to sharp population declines, the problem will solve itself. Even if we're not around to see it.
I’m quite well off, I guess, but I would blink furiously at dropping £20k on a winter holiday
In my professional capacity for the Knappers Gazette I’ve done trips that would have cost £100,000 for 2 weeks. They were great fun. But they certainly weren’t worth £100,000. I suppose some people are just so rich it doesn’t matter
But it is possible he will be forced from office under these circumstances ('he has no right to lead the country') and these odds are not reflected in the odds quoted for Raab - I'd say it's more than 10%.
I am not really a fan of luxury, and prefer 3 star type smaller places, as less sterile and more local colour.
It's either the 5 in a room budget hotel pile in, which will do for a night or two, but I wouldn't dream of for a week (and now ages dictate we're a 2 room family), not least because of style cramping. Or the ones you do find are such hen's teeth that little option of a discount - we had a lovely 2 room suite at a wedding in East Sussex a few years back.
In any case, I don't have a bank of places where this is a great option - but then again, never been one for the foreign package holiday - so that may be my blind spot.
Of course, he could just flounce off after losing a ToryVONC, despite being duty bound to wait until a clear successor emerges from the contest. Then Raab might be in with a chance as NHants identifies, but I think it unlikely, mainly because I think Boris is more likely to be atypical in his reluctance to go and I don't think that even he would put the Queen in such a constitutionally awkward position by resigning without a clear successor.
The one that stands out is only 14% favouring the Conservatives for their flagship policy of "levelling up". They either need some more guns on that flagship or a different flagship.
The idiotic thing is, just over the coast on the mainland there is an entirely unspoiled coast with lovely Venetian towns, like Preveza
https://travelgreecetraveleurope.com/2020/02/05/preveza-greece/
Write out 100 times "Uniform National Swing does not work in the grand scheme of United Kingdom General Elections".
Getting at doctors are we, the Scots being quiet this afternoon? There were plenty of medics eschewing those voluntarily!
There have been a few lottery jackpots that would still be left largely intact after that.
God knows what state the realm will be in after another five years of this clown and he's dodgy supporters. Everything he goes near is corrupted.
"Take back control so I can implement a banana republic" was not on the side of the bus.
Labour still 17 short of a majority. Plus Starmer Labour is still not seen as as centrist as Blair's New Labour by the middle classes, even if not as bad as Corbyn Labour. So while they might tactically vote LD, they are much less likely to tactically vote Labour.
Compare too the by election results in North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham where the LDs were challengers and won with Old Bexley and Sidcup where Labour were challengers and the Tories held on
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=40&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
This Met decision absolutely stinks.
Possibly the worst thing that has happened yet in this disgusting saga.
Uniform National Swing does not work in the grand scheme of United Kingdom General Elections.
Now take the rest of the day off.
That is a nasty insinuation about Scots, which I hope you might withdraw. I love Scotland and the Scottish people. I don't like 3 of the Nats on here because they regularly post things that are unpleasantly anti-English so they get what they deserve. I am not aware of any occasion that I have been rude to you because you express your desire for independence in a civilised way.
Wine time Friday anyone?
In my experience the best is a mix. Spend 6 days somewhere characterful but cheap, then indulge yourself with a night or two of luxury. The contrast somehow makes both more enjoyable
One of the nicest places I have stayed in the last decade (when I have been all over the world and done all the 5 star stuff) is here:
https://e.xpda.co/d8RG4NU3MQXcdwVKOnsZwnpyCJ4
Two star holiday apartments in Pelion Greece. About £40 a night in September (the ideal time to visit). Spellbinding
https://thesecretbarrister.com/2022/01/28/why-on-earth-would-the-metropolitan-police-ask-sue-gray-to-redact-key-parts-of-her-independent-report/
I did have a very nice week in Sydney for a drug launch, with gourmet meals and a night at the opera house some 20 years ago, flying with Cathay Pacific, and a hotel at Darling Harbour. Very Nice, but exceptional.
But a political ‘stitch-up’? It’s too early for such accusations to be sensibly levelled. As things stand, there are potentially valid reasons for the Met’s stance. The provable charge against the Met is unforgivable incompetence at the highest level. We’ll have to await the outcome of their investigation, and the transparency of their decision-making, before deciding whether Hanlon’s Razor needs snapping in half.
Re the medics, indeed, but it's been interesting to see the rise in the campaign against such things, and the increasing insistence on formal statements in research papers.
Compare too the by election results in North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham where the LDs were challengers and won with Old Bexley and Sidcup where Labour were challengers and the Tories held on'
There has been no repeal Clause 4 moment from Starmer, no real attempt to go all out to the centre as Blair did and Starmer also has zero charisma unlike Blair. There will be far less tactical voting for Labour next time than there was in 1997, even if there is tactical voting for the LDs.
So I repeat, Labour is still a million miles from a majority and will be unless it either regains most of the seats it lost to the SNP in Scotland or goes much more to the centre a la New Labour pre 1997
I don't feel well-off. But I know what the average family income is, and we earn a fair bit more than that. I usually tick one of the top two boxes in surveys on the 'household income' page. And while I'll never feel entirely comfortable, we're probably top decile for capital.
And yet almost all holidays I see advertised are wildly, wildly unaffordable. I consider £3000 for a week away for five towards the upper end of extravagant. Yet almost any foreign family holiday that isn't transparently worse than staying at home seems to be more than this. I simply don't understand how this works. There surely can't be that many people who can afford a holiday like this every year.
And don't get me started on Disneyland. Not that I want to go - but I don't see how more than a tiny proportion of the population can ever afford it.
Otherwise you are the guy who just paid full price for a shirt at TM Lewin.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-walt-disney-world-went-from-3-50-a-ticket-to-becoming-a-luxury-priced-destination-11633108165