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Were you up for Boris Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

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  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    edited January 2022
    My favourite youtube channels that get mid range viewing (about 50K per video) are

    Steve Wallis - does a lot of stealth camping (warms my wannabe anarchist heart ! Typical canadian - calm, polite unassuming , actually seems genuinely scared of being caught

    Joolz guide to London - Tour guide who would win a medal for cheerfulness!

    Golfmates - mid range golf handicapers messing around on mid tier golf courses. Good Lancashire lad anchoring it ,down to earth.

    Numberphile - maths stuff for lay people - best are Matt Parker (really clever but engaging presenter) and Hannah Fry who has the most seductive voice ever .

    Gotham chess - International Master from New York who goes right across the chess landscape from crap players to world championship games
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2022
    eek said:


    Interesting thread on focus group opinions - ends with

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    James Johnson
    @jamesjohnson252
    ·
    1h
    - For most, cover-up rather than the deed itself has done the most damage to Boris' personal brand.

    This means the current defence (blame others / work party excuse) is unlikely to work with the public - and may even make things worse. (18/18)

    I rate @jamesjohnson252 highly. He always gave good advice when I was in Number 10, never just telling me what I wanted to hear. This thread is v bad both for Boris and party as a whole (forgive me Boris loyalists but latter is my chief concern). See tweets #17 & 18 in particular

    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1482756336978903040?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of TV (and video game) production values, I think it is missed just how easy (and cheap) it is for ordinary people to make content that would be the remit of big teams of skilled professionals.

    Look at Real Engineering or Veritasium - they are absolutely brilliant science and engineering documentary channels, that are produced by a handful of people.

    The same is true of video games. Thanks to engines like Unity, one person (Lucas Pope) was able to produce The Return of the Obra Dinn, one of the very best video games of the last five years.

    The problem the BBC has is that it's stuck in the middle: it's neither producing lots of fantastic, low cost, content; nor does it have the budget to spend on mega one-offs.

    Real engineering and Veritasium do produce some really good niche documentaries and I am subscribed to both of them, but they barely make any money and rely a lot on patreon etc, i.e. gifts from viewers. They can survive because of world wide access and world wide gifts.

    Are you suggesting that BBC goes worldwide with advertising and subscription? Also providing their local programmes etc?

    If so, I would be happy to subscribe. the monthly fee would be a whole lot less.
    OK.

    I can assure you that they make a decent amount of money.

    Average YouTube CPMs in Germany are close to $40. Now, UK and US are about $13, but let's simplify and say it's $10 CPM.

    So, showing your advert to someone on YouTube costs a cent. Now, you don't get an advert shown on every video, and there are decently high skip rates. But even so, it probably averages 0.6-0.8 cents per view in advertising.

    Of this, the creator gets roughly half, and YouTube gets half.

    So, an *average* channel is probably 0.3 cents per view to the creator. If you create business and finance content, that has older, richer viewers, it might be north of a cent (my channel was just under a cent a view to me). Conversely, if you target at toddlers and young kids, it might be more like 0.05 cents.

    But let's go with 0.3 cents per view. (And that's before you get onto channel sponsors and the like.)

    If you produce two videos a week, and they have have two million views each, that's four million views a week, 16 million per month, and 200 million per year. That's just under $1m a year. Before sponsorships and product placement and Patreon and the like, which probably add about 50% to that.

    I reckoned that to earn a decent living with my YouTube channel, I needed to produce a video a week, with one million views. I didn't get there (I got diverted into starting an insurance company), but I did produce a couple of videos that had 200,000+ views.
    Aiui money per advert varies with the subject so (for instance) cars and money pay more than books. Can't remember where I heard it though.
    Money per advert is determined by a complicated bidding algorithm. And, yes, car companies pay a lot of money to advertise, and they're going to prioritise people who already show an interest in cars.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,450
    edited January 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of TV (and video game) production values, I think it is missed just how easy (and cheap) it is for ordinary people to make content that would be the remit of big teams of skilled professionals.

    Look at Real Engineering or Veritasium - they are absolutely brilliant science and engineering documentary channels, that are produced by a handful of people.

    The same is true of video games. Thanks to engines like Unity, one person (Lucas Pope) was able to produce The Return of the Obra Dinn, one of the very best video games of the last five years.

    The problem the BBC has is that it's stuck in the middle: it's neither producing lots of fantastic, low cost, content; nor does it have the budget to spend on mega one-offs.

    Real engineering and Veritasium do produce some really good niche documentaries and I am subscribed to both of them, but they barely make any money and rely a lot on patreon etc, i.e. gifts from viewers. They can survive because of world wide access and world wide gifts.

    Are you suggesting that BBC goes worldwide with advertising and subscription? Also providing their local programmes etc?

    If so, I would be happy to subscribe. the monthly fee would be a whole lot less.
    How do you know Veritasium barely makes money? I would argue strongly that isn't true. 1.5 billion views is a lot of income from YouTube ads (and science stuff seems to pay good CRM), but they also have sponsored videos that these days can pay a lot. Patreon is often just another way to make money, but saying support us and you get extras.

    There are plenty of YouTubers who have shown their income from channels with much smaller audience, and although different CRMs across genres etc, 100m videos a year, you are making a decent living from YouTube ads alone.
    According to a google search, approx £2000 per million views on a youtube video on average, hence the world wide access required to achieve those views. Out of that you need to employ a team to research, write, film, and edit.
    Worth remembering that averages can be pretty misleading: a 10 minute video will pretty much always get an advert, while a one minute one won't. And if your video is video game streaming of the kind my 11 year son enjoys, then the value of advertising there is probably one-fiftieth of showing me something.
    Strangely, that might not necessarily be the case. If a niche becomes saturated e.g. showing game highlights, there are lots of options in terms of which channels to put it on.

    There are some really niche channels that serve a market that doesn't have many big channels and I believe some of those creators get massive CRM because the advertiser wants to target a market, but there aren't lots of options to place it where it will be guaranteed to get big views.

    BUT, these niche channels have to have a biggish following, but perhaps not millions of views per video. I don't believe for instance "influencer" lifestyle vlog type content pays very well, as loads of people do it, and so you need to be doing massive views. Where as somebody doing 100-200k per video in some niche topic can earn as much if not more.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Scott_xP said:

    The good news is the BoZo fanbois have apparently dismissed the focus group results as Remoaner propaganda.

    To Oblivion, and beyond...

    It's a 1/4 that he'll be here past January didn't you hear.

    It's a marathon not a sprint.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    The hope in Govt is that Sue Gray report can be published by the end of the week.

    But allegations keep coming, so could be the following week.

    As we know, it won't judge on the law or apportion blame. But likely to say what was/wasn't appropriate.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60014813
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited January 2022
    Considering how long Johnson has had to think about what line to take, tackling the "underlying culture" is not a very happy choice.

    Could he not have thought of a phrase that didn't include those two syllables - "lying"?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of TV (and video game) production values, I think it is missed just how easy (and cheap) it is for ordinary people to make content that would be the remit of big teams of skilled professionals.

    Look at Real Engineering or Veritasium - they are absolutely brilliant science and engineering documentary channels, that are produced by a handful of people.

    The same is true of video games. Thanks to engines like Unity, one person (Lucas Pope) was able to produce The Return of the Obra Dinn, one of the very best video games of the last five years.

    The problem the BBC has is that it's stuck in the middle: it's neither producing lots of fantastic, low cost, content; nor does it have the budget to spend on mega one-offs.

    Real engineering and Veritasium do produce some really good niche documentaries and I am subscribed to both of them, but they barely make any money and rely a lot on patreon etc, i.e. gifts from viewers. They can survive because of world wide access and world wide gifts.

    Are you suggesting that BBC goes worldwide with advertising and subscription? Also providing their local programmes etc?

    If so, I would be happy to subscribe. the monthly fee would be a whole lot less.
    How do you know Veritasium barely makes money? I would argue strongly that isn't true. 1.5 billion views is a lot of income from YouTube ads (and science stuff seems to pay good CRM), but they also have sponsored videos that these days can pay a lot. Patreon is often just another way to make money, but saying support us and you get extras.

    There are plenty of YouTubers who have shown their income from channels with much smaller audience, and although different CRMs across genres etc, 100m videos a year, you are making a decent living from YouTube ads alone.
    According to a google search, approx £2000 per million views on a youtube video on average, hence the world wide access required to achieve those views. Out of that you need to employ a team to research, write, film, and edit.
    Its a lot more complex than that. It depends on your topic and also there is an element of the big fish take the smaller fish lunch i.e. people want to pay more to be an ad on a channel that consistently gets good views every video.

    e.g, this guy made $278k in basically 6 months only doing ~100k views per video and 380k followers, as his RPM $7.5 / 1000 views.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_aZ72ktAyE

    I have absolutely no doubt, Veritasium as a company will be bringing in millions per year from YouTube revenue alone, before all the paid sponsorships. Now they have a team of people, but it ain't a break even operation that needs that Pateron money.
    Oh, some of their videos get 15 million views. At 1 cent a view, that's $150,000. Even if they're only getting 0.5 cents, it's still $75,000.
  • Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    So not undetectable via PCR, just not as easy to determine if delta or omicron. That’s a very different thing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
    Thanks! That’s a much fairer description! I hate the way the prem gets treated as if the old first division never existed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Also, isn't one wave of infection after another pretty much the very definition of endemic?

    And each wave primes our immune system more, so that it takes the virus on earlier and earlier each time?
    Endemic means steady state (R0 of 1 among non immune population)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)
    So, it's incorrect to say that the common cold is endemic?
    It's incorrect to say pretty much any of the things that people say about the common cold, as far as I can see, starting from the fact that it taxonomically doesn't exist any more than the fish does, and it is not correlated with cold weather or winter. If what you mean is people saying "there's a nasty cold going round" I think that is very possibly observation bias, but if it isn't, then those are epidemics of a specific cold-type virus. Flu is not endemic. Chicken pox is.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    My favourite youtube channels that get mid range viewing (about 50K per video) are

    Steve Wallis - does a lot of stealth camping (warms my wannabe anarchist heart ! Typical canadian - calm, polite unassuming , actually seems genuinely scared of being caught

    Joolz guide to London - Tour guide who would win a medal for cheerfulness!

    Golfmates - mid range golf handicapers messing around on mid tier golf courses. Good Lancashire lad anchoring it ,down to earth.

    Numberphile - maths stuff for lay people - best are Matt Parker (really clever but engaging presenter) and Hannah Fry who has the most seductive voice ever .

    Gotham chess - International Master from New York who goes right across the chess landscape from crap players to world championship games

    I liked Dr Fry when she was on TV but her World Service show is pretty annoying.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    But where’s the fun in that? :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Original strain of Covid, or origanal strain of omicron? If the former, no worries. I seriously doubt it’s the latter, as there hasn’t been time.
    So no, don’t stress.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

    Known since early December

    It is not undetectable by PCR, it is merely impossible to identify as Omicron Vs delta by PCR. Irrelevant as e know everything is Omicron now anyway

    Don't like the sound of plus virulent. Of all the things I am right about the one I least want to say I told you so, is that the theory that it gets more benign with every wave is baloney
    Thanks for that doc link. It is safe to say, assuming that document portrays events as they happened, that animals were saved at the expense of humans and that non at-risk humans who worked for an animal charity were saved at the expense of at-risk humans.

    Whoever was responsible for or justifies this is beneath contempt.
    Hmm do you see the animal charity chaps as to blame? It was arguably not in principle unreasonable to ask*; it was up to the Gmt to allocate priorities.

    *Though misguided/tactless/optimistic/imprudent/etc in reality ...
    Not unfair. From the transcript it seems that those on the ground did allocate priorities but they were overridden.

    As for do I blame the animal charity well they asked. They weren't at particular risk so perhaps they shouldn't have asked.

    I think they thought that because they had their own plane they wouldn't be impinging on the evacuation effort but as the document makes clear the plane wasn't the issue. Perhaps no one explained that to them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Also, isn't one wave of infection after another pretty much the very definition of endemic?

    And each wave primes our immune system more, so that it takes the virus on earlier and earlier each time?
    Yes, that's what an endemic virus does, it reinfects us all the time but doesn't cause serious symptoms because we've all had it multiple times.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    JBriskin3 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The good news is the BoZo fanbois have apparently dismissed the focus group results as Remoaner propaganda.

    To Oblivion, and beyond...

    It's a 1/4 that he'll be here past January didn't you hear.

    It's a marathon not a sprint.
    With a physique like his there's only one winner then.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Original strain of Covid, or origanal strain of omicron? If the former, no worries. I seriously doubt it’s the latter, as there hasn’t been time.
    So no, don’t stress.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

    Known since early December

    It is not undetectable by PCR, it is merely impossible to identify as Omicron Vs delta by PCR. Irrelevant as e know everything is Omicron now anyway

    Don't like the sound of plus virulent. Of all the things I am right about the one I least want to say I told you so, is that the theory that it gets more benign with every wave is baloney
    Thanks for that doc link. It is safe to say, assuming that document portrays events as they happened, that animals were saved at the expense of humans and that non at-risk humans who worked for an animal charity were saved at the expense of at-risk humans.

    Whoever was responsible for or justifies this is beneath contempt.
    Hmm do you see the animal charity chaps as to blame? It was arguably not in principle unreasonable to ask*; it was up to the Gmt to allocate priorities.

    *Though misguided/tactless/optimistic/imprudent/etc in reality ...
    Anyone who wasn't hoping for a My First Pony kit in their stocking a couple of weeks back, knows that there is virtually no welfare downside to humanely destroying an animal. They also know that high profile "rescue the doggies at all costs" campaigns means megabucks of donations from people whose mentality is at that level. Indded Farthing was giving it large about the stress thirst this that and the other the doggies might encounter on the way to the airport as if that were not an additional reason for them to be put to sleep

    So, yes, they knew what they were doing, and human lives were acceptable collateral damage to a successful campaign. Trebles all round.
    Thanks. I was wondering if they had genuinely not realised the situation was so shit that they needed to be told to forget it. But if he was fretting about the risks to the hounds on the airport run ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Original strain of Covid, or origanal strain of omicron? If the former, no worries. I seriously doubt it’s the latter, as there hasn’t been time.
    So no, don’t stress.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

    Known since early December

    It is not undetectable by PCR, it is merely impossible to identify as Omicron Vs delta by PCR. Irrelevant as e know everything is Omicron now anyway

    Don't like the sound of plus virulent. Of all the things I am right about the one I least want to say I told you so, is that the theory that it gets more benign with every wave is baloney
    Thanks for that doc link. It is safe to say, assuming that document portrays events as they happened, that animals were saved at the expense of humans and that non at-risk humans who worked for an animal charity were saved at the expense of at-risk humans.

    Whoever was responsible for or justifies this is beneath contempt.
    Hmm do you see the animal charity chaps as to blame? It was arguably not in principle unreasonable to ask*; it was up to the Gmt to allocate priorities.

    *Though misguided/tactless/optimistic/imprudent/etc in reality ...
    Anyone who wasn't hoping for a My First Pony kit in their stocking a couple of weeks back, knows that there is virtually no welfare downside to humanely destroying an animal. They also know that high profile "rescue the doggies at all costs" campaigns means megabucks of donations from people whose mentality is at that level. Indded Farthing was giving it large about the stress thirst this that and the other the doggies might encounter on the way to the airport as if that were not an additional reason for them to be put to sleep

    So, yes, they knew what they were doing, and human lives were acceptable collateral damage to a successful campaign. Trebles all round.
    Thanks. I was wondering if they had genuinely not realised the situation was so shit that the only sane thing to do (given the risk to the hounds never mind the humans) was to get out the syringes and anaesthetic. But if he was fretting about the risks to the hounds ...
    The document states that there is as we speak an American animal charity operating in Afghan so the concerns from the start were misplaced. As the Crisis team pointed out. Until they were over ridden.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited January 2022

    Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
    Thanks! That’s a much fairer description! I hate the way the prem gets treated as if the old first division never existed.
    However, it does show just how poor Liverpool have been in winning Premiership titles and City will win this year .

    My father was a Utd supporter but unlike my lifetime support, he always said he supported Utd and City, as he was from Greater Manchester
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of TV (and video game) production values, I think it is missed just how easy (and cheap) it is for ordinary people to make content that would be the remit of big teams of skilled professionals.

    Look at Real Engineering or Veritasium - they are absolutely brilliant science and engineering documentary channels, that are produced by a handful of people.

    The same is true of video games. Thanks to engines like Unity, one person (Lucas Pope) was able to produce The Return of the Obra Dinn, one of the very best video games of the last five years.

    The problem the BBC has is that it's stuck in the middle: it's neither producing lots of fantastic, low cost, content; nor does it have the budget to spend on mega one-offs.

    Real engineering and Veritasium do produce some really good niche documentaries and I am subscribed to both of them, but they barely make any money and rely a lot on patreon etc, i.e. gifts from viewers. They can survive because of world wide access and world wide gifts.

    Are you suggesting that BBC goes worldwide with advertising and subscription? Also providing their local programmes etc?

    If so, I would be happy to subscribe. the monthly fee would be a whole lot less.
    How do you know Veritasium barely makes money? I would argue strongly that isn't true. 1.5 billion views is a lot of income from YouTube ads (and science stuff seems to pay good CRM), but they also have sponsored videos that these days can pay a lot. Patreon is often just another way to make money, but saying support us and you get extras.

    There are plenty of YouTubers who have shown their income from channels with much smaller audience, and although different CRMs across genres etc, 100m videos a year, you are making a decent living from YouTube ads alone.
    According to a google search, approx £2000 per million views on a youtube video on average, hence the world wide access required to achieve those views. Out of that you need to employ a team to research, write, film, and edit.
    Its a lot more complex than that. It depends on your topic and also there is an element of the big fish take the smaller fish lunch i.e. people want to pay more to be an ad on a channel that consistently gets good views every video.

    e.g, this guy made $278k in basically 6 months only doing ~100k views per video and 380k followers, as his RPM $7.5 / 1000 views.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_aZ72ktAyE

    I have absolutely no doubt, Veritasium as a company will be bringing in millions per year from YouTube revenue alone, before all the paid sponsorships. Now they have a team of people, but it ain't a break even operation that needs that Pateron money.
    Oh, some of their videos get 15 million views. At 1 cent a view, that's $150,000. Even if they're only getting 0.5 cents, it's still $75,000.
    I agree most heartedly, but as I said, these are world wide, so a new startup like BBCflix would need world wide access.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Yes:

    #Israël/Covid: apparition d'un sous-variant d'Omicron potentiellement plus virulent et non détectable par test PCR
    ► Détails avec Joanna Castel
    Translated from French by
    #Israël / Covid: appearance of a potentially more virulent Omicron sub-variant not detectable by PCR test
    ► Details with Joanna Castel


    https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_FR/status/1482716087313735683?s=20


    20 cases of Omicron sub-variant BA2 found in Israel – report | The Times of Israel. They just keep coming. This virus just mutates so fast. We need to solve from that premise starting today.

    https://twitter.com/Brooksie1Jenn/status/1482726208387309568?s=20


    Denmark:


    Timmy Guevara☣
    @TMYG168
    ·
    21h
    Replying to
    @DrTonyLeachon
    maybe new set of symptoms to come Omicron sub variant BA2(21L) seems to be outcompeting original Omicron what are the implications?


    https://twitter.com/TMYG168/status/1482429244638900230?s=20
    Thanks, but still looks like early days in terms of hard info.
    Very early. But Denmark is a little troubling

    1/2
    After the news from #Denmark yesterday with the unexpected double-peak in #Covid19 cases linked to an #Omicron variant, I wonder if #Norway is also suffering from #BA2 (aka #21L)

    New infections rise again today to 8,477 (+60%)
    But hospital and ICU numbers still falling.


    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482658598694137856?s=20


    It seems you can easily catch this form of Omicron twice (or more?)

    Question is: how bad is it the 2nd or 3rd time around?
    Are you genuinely messing your kecks every single time someone on Twitter starts a variant panic?

    They're going to keep happening for years. You'll end up having some sort of breakdown.
    Thing is @leon is alone in his flat, bored, too early to start the wine and is raking Twatter for anything vaguely scary to pass round the camp fire.
    It’s why we love him...
    lol. That's not a bad description of what I'm doing

    HOWEVER there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic

    Look at cases in Israel (where they have this new variant: Omicron FFS). Absolutely shooting through the roof. A vertical climb. Is it me or is this climb - POSSIBLY - even sharper than the spike you get with Omicron Classic? They've gone from 5,000 cases at the end of December 2021 to 55,000 cases yesterday

    That might indicate the presence of an even more transmissible form of Omicron, ie Omicron FFS, also able to evade immunity from prior infection. Of course we cannot know yet, especially if, as is rumoured Omicron FFS can evade PCR tests. How would we even know if it is out there?


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/





    What will we do if we get an undetectable variant with no symptoms?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
    Thanks! That’s a much fairer description! I hate the way the prem gets treated as if the old first division never existed.
    However, it does show just how poor Liverpool have been in winning Premiership titles and City will win this year
    For sure. I’d be rather concerned about how long Liverpool’s slump was, and think about united in the same way. Could be a long way to go before they win the prem again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    I may be wrong, but I don't think this is even the first time Leon has gotten overexcited about this particular new variant.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
  • Reading the thread header , I must be a naive innocent in that I dont understand why "mower" as a safe word is humiliating or punishing. Anyone more worldly wise want to educate me ? I am not going to google it just in case
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Also, isn't one wave of infection after another pretty much the very definition of endemic?

    And each wave primes our immune system more, so that it takes the virus on earlier and earlier each time?
    Yes, that's what an endemic virus does, it reinfects us all the time but doesn't cause serious symptoms because we've all had it multiple times.
    Endemic just means it's there all the time. There's no implication that endemic means mild. There have been plenty of endemic diseases with very high fatality rates. COVID-19 is mild on average in the UK now only because we have high vaccination rates. If you haven't had it before and you're vulnerable, your risk is comparable to what it would have been two years ago, albeit Omicron may be somewhat milder.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Unless Her Majesty has been secretly instructed to have an unfortunate accident with the sword, of course.

    Then it would make some sense.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Reading the thread header , I must be a naive innocent in that I dont understand why "mower" as a safe word is humiliating or punishing. Anyone more worldly wise want to educate me ? I am not going to google it just in case

    I think it is because it sounds too dangerously like 'more' - perhaps if one is a Manc. So if one is being flagellated by 100 dominatrices, and wants them to stop by using the safe word ...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited January 2022

    Reading the thread header , I must be a naive innocent in that I dont understand why "mower" as a safe word is humiliating or punishing. Anyone more worldly wise want to educate me ? I am not going to google it just in case

    It sounds like "more" at a guess.

    ETA scooped by @Carnyx
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    It may be the root of my wokery, but I was always told to be polite in female company. Calm down with your profane abuse.
  • dixiedean said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The good news is the BoZo fanbois have apparently dismissed the focus group results as Remoaner propaganda.

    To Oblivion, and beyond...

    It's a 1/4 that he'll be here past January didn't you hear.

    It's a marathon not a sprint.
    With a physique like his there's only one winner then.
    Too muscly for the marathon imo, can see why he is tailing off after a fast start.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of TV (and video game) production values, I think it is missed just how easy (and cheap) it is for ordinary people to make content that would be the remit of big teams of skilled professionals.

    Look at Real Engineering or Veritasium - they are absolutely brilliant science and engineering documentary channels, that are produced by a handful of people.

    The same is true of video games. Thanks to engines like Unity, one person (Lucas Pope) was able to produce The Return of the Obra Dinn, one of the very best video games of the last five years.

    The problem the BBC has is that it's stuck in the middle: it's neither producing lots of fantastic, low cost, content; nor does it have the budget to spend on mega one-offs.

    Real engineering and Veritasium do produce some really good niche documentaries and I am subscribed to both of them, but they barely make any money and rely a lot on patreon etc, i.e. gifts from viewers. They can survive because of world wide access and world wide gifts.

    Are you suggesting that BBC goes worldwide with advertising and subscription? Also providing their local programmes etc?

    If so, I would be happy to subscribe. the monthly fee would be a whole lot less.
    How do you know Veritasium barely makes money? I would argue strongly that isn't true. 1.5 billion views is a lot of income from YouTube ads (and science stuff seems to pay good CRM), but they also have sponsored videos that these days can pay a lot. Patreon is often just another way to make money, but saying support us and you get extras.

    There are plenty of YouTubers who have shown their income from channels with much smaller audience, and although different CRMs across genres etc, 100m videos a year, you are making a decent living from YouTube ads alone.
    According to a google search, approx £2000 per million views on a youtube video on average, hence the world wide access required to achieve those views. Out of that you need to employ a team to research, write, film, and edit.
    Worth remembering that averages can be pretty misleading: a 10 minute video will pretty much always get an advert, while a one minute one won't. And if your video is video game streaming of the kind my 11 year son enjoys, then the value of advertising there is probably one-fiftieth of showing me something.
    Youtube advertising appears rather screwed up at the moment. They’ve been trying to show me six-minute-long ads, three or four times in the middle of short (10m) videos. All that does is encourage ad-blocking.
    If I encounter an ad longer than 10s at the start of a youtube vid I click "back", then go back in to the video. Invasriably the ad has disappeared and i only have to wait 5s to skip.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Yes:

    #Israël/Covid: apparition d'un sous-variant d'Omicron potentiellement plus virulent et non détectable par test PCR
    ► Détails avec Joanna Castel
    Translated from French by
    #Israël / Covid: appearance of a potentially more virulent Omicron sub-variant not detectable by PCR test
    ► Details with Joanna Castel


    https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_FR/status/1482716087313735683?s=20


    20 cases of Omicron sub-variant BA2 found in Israel – report | The Times of Israel. They just keep coming. This virus just mutates so fast. We need to solve from that premise starting today.

    https://twitter.com/Brooksie1Jenn/status/1482726208387309568?s=20


    Denmark:


    Timmy Guevara☣
    @TMYG168
    ·
    21h
    Replying to
    @DrTonyLeachon
    maybe new set of symptoms to come Omicron sub variant BA2(21L) seems to be outcompeting original Omicron what are the implications?


    https://twitter.com/TMYG168/status/1482429244638900230?s=20
    Thanks, but still looks like early days in terms of hard info.
    Very early. But Denmark is a little troubling

    1/2
    After the news from #Denmark yesterday with the unexpected double-peak in #Covid19 cases linked to an #Omicron variant, I wonder if #Norway is also suffering from #BA2 (aka #21L)

    New infections rise again today to 8,477 (+60%)
    But hospital and ICU numbers still falling.


    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482658598694137856?s=20


    It seems you can easily catch this form of Omicron twice (or more?)

    Question is: how bad is it the 2nd or 3rd time around?
    Are you genuinely messing your kecks every single time someone on Twitter starts a variant panic?

    They're going to keep happening for years. You'll end up having some sort of breakdown.
    Thing is @leon is alone in his flat, bored, too early to start the wine and is raking Twatter for anything vaguely scary to pass round the camp fire.
    It’s why we love him...
    Just a shame it looks like we're in for another evening of his wetting his nappy
  • Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
    Thanks! That’s a much fairer description! I hate the way the prem gets treated as if the old first division never existed.
    However, it does show just how poor Liverpool have been in winning Premiership titles and City will win this year
    For sure. I’d be rather concerned about how long Liverpool’s slump was, and think about united in the same way. Could be a long way to go before they win the prem again.
    In United's heyday under Sir Alex, I was going into a meeting with my football hero, Bobby Charlton, and we were discussing the successes when he turned round and said, 'we must enjoy it while it lasts as it is not certain to continue '

    Wise words from a great footballer
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Also, isn't one wave of infection after another pretty much the very definition of endemic?

    And each wave primes our immune system more, so that it takes the virus on earlier and earlier each time?
    Yes, that's what an endemic virus does, it reinfects us all the time but doesn't cause serious symptoms because we've all had it multiple times.
    Science as Just So story. In fact rubella and measles, and for all I know some (but not all) other endemic diseases infect you once and you are then immune to further infection.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited January 2022

    Reading the thread header , I must be a naive innocent in that I dont understand why "mower" as a safe word is humiliating or punishing. Anyone more worldly wise want to educate me ? I am not going to google it just in case

    Mower, in the right accent sounds like 'more', which is not what you want to say when you want the dominatrices to stop.

    #LessonsYouLearnTheHardWay
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



    Denmark has form for crazy variants - remember the Mink variant!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Also, isn't one wave of infection after another pretty much the very definition of endemic?

    And each wave primes our immune system more, so that it takes the virus on earlier and earlier each time?
    Yes, that's what an endemic virus does, it reinfects us all the time but doesn't cause serious symptoms because we've all had it multiple times.
    Endemic just means it's there all the time. There's no implication that endemic means mild. There have been plenty of endemic diseases with very high fatality rates. COVID-19 is mild on average in the UK now only because we have high vaccination rates. If you haven't had it before and you're vulnerable, your risk is comparable to what it would have been two years ago, albeit Omicron may be somewhat milder.
    Honestly, at least @Leon is drunk half the time. Your constant doom hopecasting is just sad at this point.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



    Is it really an issue if we get infected and people get no symptoms?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Re Williamson getting a knighthood, presumably it’s a bribe so he keeps his mouth shut. At a guess.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    On the BBC Survival story, and its inability to fight Netflix and Prime etc, there is one slight counter-argument. The big American companies are Woking themselves to death

    Read this remarkable article about diversity and Wokeness in Hollywood and US TV:

    https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/hollywoods-new-rules?fbclid=IwAR1iYqNdMGhl68_fw_otlewrIEmL8YYkjGO9bR1C5_UHjzDA5ZsUu1X90Ao


    If the US streamers just pump out unfunny PC comedy and tediously liberal movies they won't prosper, either. Perhaps the Koreans will take over, because they don't give a shit and they are highly creative. Squid Game

    I can vouch for the paragraphs about the endless hunt for "diversity hires". It is the same in the UK (if not quite as bad). Every job has to go to a Woman or a "BIPOC" (think BAME plus Native Americans)

    What is extraordinary in America is that they now have strict racial quotas for movies that want to be considered for the Oscars:



    "So, in September 2020, the Academy launched its Representation and Inclusion Standards Entry platform (or RAISE). For a movie to qualify for Best Picture, producers not only had to register detailed personal information about everyone involved in the making of that movie, but the movie had to meet two of the Academy’s four diversity standards—touching on everything from on-screen representation to creative leadership. (An Academy spokesperson said “only select staff” would have access to data collected on the platform.)

    "The Academy explained that movies failing to meet these standards would not be barred from qualifying for Best Picture until 2024. But producers are already complying: In 2020, data from 366 productions were submitted to the platform.

    "Meanwhile, CBS mandated that writers’ rooms be at least 40 percent black, indigenous and people of color (or BIPOC) for the 2021-2022 broadcast season and 50 percent for the 2022-2023 season. ABC Entertainment issued a detailed series of “inclusion standards.” (“I guarantee you every studio has something like that,” a longtime writer and director said.)

    A telling remark:

    "How to survive the revolution? By becoming its most ardent supporter. “Best way to defend yourself against the woke is to out-woke everyone, including the woke,” one writer said. Suddenly, every conversation with every agent or head of content started with: Is anyone BIPOC attached to this?"

    Archive 81 on Netflix is great. Not even a hint of workery, just solid TV.
    And, of course, THE GREAT

    The funniest TV show in years, and absolutely non-PC (except they have multiple black actors in 18th century Russia? - but why not, it works). Still amazing it got made
    You can still get all the classic stuff from the golden age of unwoke on YouTube.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dJswJ2h8N0
    Uploaded unchallenged by a guy called Matt Spanner, as opposed to being monetised by the official BBC ITV account. A great example of what’s wrong with UK TV companies in their approach to the internet.
    Would 'On The Buses' have much value though? I'd have thought all you could monetize is the threat - "Pay us now or we'll put repeats out!" - and that's probably not legal.
    On the Buses would have limited value. ITV3 screen it regularly as it costs them little to do so and it has already been released on DVD. Same with the films.
    Mutiny on the Buses was shown on ITV3 this very morning.
    and, before it, On the Buses.

    It's a genuinely fascinating snapshot of a particular era. All those beiges!
    Harry Enfield did quite an amusing parody of On The Buses a few years back, which suddenly comes back to mind.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q1uHcGTK8k
    Coincidentally saw this brilliant old Harry Enfield clip on Twitter just now. Again one has to ask, would it get made now? Could be seen as misogynist, despite the fact it is clearly sending up archaic misogyny

    https://twitter.com/HarryEnfield6/status/1481935300549136387?s=20
    How much of Little Britain would be made today, only a decade and a half after the BBC first showed it?
    Computer says NO!
    It must be awful being a young person. Scared to have a sense of humour in case your friends cancel you on social media for finding something funny that they don’t. No wonder they’re all concerned about their mental health. I’m glad I’m old.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 287

    Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
    Thanks! That’s a much fairer description! I hate the way the prem gets treated as if the old first division never existed.
    However, it does show just how poor Liverpool have been in winning Premiership titles and City will win this year
    For sure. I’d be rather concerned about how long Liverpool’s slump was, and think about united in the same way. Could be a long way to go before they win the prem again.
    In United's heyday under Sir Alex, I was going into a meeting with my football hero, Bobby Charlton, and we were discussing the successes when he turned round and said, 'we must enjoy it while it lasts as it is not certain to continue '

    Wise words from a great footballer
    Still the greatest to play for England for my money. And a thoroughly decent bloke.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Any sources beyond a complete random on Twitter?
    Yes:

    #Israël/Covid: apparition d'un sous-variant d'Omicron potentiellement plus virulent et non détectable par test PCR
    ► Détails avec Joanna Castel
    Translated from French by
    #Israël / Covid: appearance of a potentially more virulent Omicron sub-variant not detectable by PCR test
    ► Details with Joanna Castel


    https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_FR/status/1482716087313735683?s=20


    20 cases of Omicron sub-variant BA2 found in Israel – report | The Times of Israel. They just keep coming. This virus just mutates so fast. We need to solve from that premise starting today.

    https://twitter.com/Brooksie1Jenn/status/1482726208387309568?s=20


    Denmark:


    Timmy Guevara☣
    @TMYG168
    ·
    21h
    Replying to
    @DrTonyLeachon
    maybe new set of symptoms to come Omicron sub variant BA2(21L) seems to be outcompeting original Omicron what are the implications?


    https://twitter.com/TMYG168/status/1482429244638900230?s=20
    Thanks, but still looks like early days in terms of hard info.
    Very early. But Denmark is a little troubling

    1/2
    After the news from #Denmark yesterday with the unexpected double-peak in #Covid19 cases linked to an #Omicron variant, I wonder if #Norway is also suffering from #BA2 (aka #21L)

    New infections rise again today to 8,477 (+60%)
    But hospital and ICU numbers still falling.


    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482658598694137856?s=20


    It seems you can easily catch this form of Omicron twice (or more?)

    Question is: how bad is it the 2nd or 3rd time around?
    Are you genuinely messing your kecks every single time someone on Twitter starts a variant panic?

    They're going to keep happening for years. You'll end up having some sort of breakdown.
    Thing is @leon is alone in his flat, bored, too early to start the wine and is raking Twatter for anything vaguely scary to pass round the camp fire.
    It’s why we love him...
    Never too early to start the wine.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



    Is it really an issue if we get infected and people get no symptoms?
    If we weren't testing, would we even know? If we don't know, is it happening?
  • Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    On the BBC Survival story, and its inability to fight Netflix and Prime etc, there is one slight counter-argument. The big American companies are Woking themselves to death

    Read this remarkable article about diversity and Wokeness in Hollywood and US TV:

    https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/hollywoods-new-rules?fbclid=IwAR1iYqNdMGhl68_fw_otlewrIEmL8YYkjGO9bR1C5_UHjzDA5ZsUu1X90Ao


    If the US streamers just pump out unfunny PC comedy and tediously liberal movies they won't prosper, either. Perhaps the Koreans will take over, because they don't give a shit and they are highly creative. Squid Game

    I can vouch for the paragraphs about the endless hunt for "diversity hires". It is the same in the UK (if not quite as bad). Every job has to go to a Woman or a "BIPOC" (think BAME plus Native Americans)

    What is extraordinary in America is that they now have strict racial quotas for movies that want to be considered for the Oscars:



    "So, in September 2020, the Academy launched its Representation and Inclusion Standards Entry platform (or RAISE). For a movie to qualify for Best Picture, producers not only had to register detailed personal information about everyone involved in the making of that movie, but the movie had to meet two of the Academy’s four diversity standards—touching on everything from on-screen representation to creative leadership. (An Academy spokesperson said “only select staff” would have access to data collected on the platform.)

    "The Academy explained that movies failing to meet these standards would not be barred from qualifying for Best Picture until 2024. But producers are already complying: In 2020, data from 366 productions were submitted to the platform.

    "Meanwhile, CBS mandated that writers’ rooms be at least 40 percent black, indigenous and people of color (or BIPOC) for the 2021-2022 broadcast season and 50 percent for the 2022-2023 season. ABC Entertainment issued a detailed series of “inclusion standards.” (“I guarantee you every studio has something like that,” a longtime writer and director said.)

    A telling remark:

    "How to survive the revolution? By becoming its most ardent supporter. “Best way to defend yourself against the woke is to out-woke everyone, including the woke,” one writer said. Suddenly, every conversation with every agent or head of content started with: Is anyone BIPOC attached to this?"

    Archive 81 on Netflix is great. Not even a hint of workery, just solid TV.
    And, of course, THE GREAT

    The funniest TV show in years, and absolutely non-PC (except they have multiple black actors in 18th century Russia? - but why not, it works). Still amazing it got made
    You can still get all the classic stuff from the golden age of unwoke on YouTube.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dJswJ2h8N0
    Uploaded unchallenged by a guy called Matt Spanner, as opposed to being monetised by the official BBC ITV account. A great example of what’s wrong with UK TV companies in their approach to the internet.
    Would 'On The Buses' have much value though? I'd have thought all you could monetize is the threat - "Pay us now or we'll put repeats out!" - and that's probably not legal.
    On the Buses would have limited value. ITV3 screen it regularly as it costs them little to do so and it has already been released on DVD. Same with the films.
    Mutiny on the Buses was shown on ITV3 this very morning.
    and, before it, On the Buses.

    It's a genuinely fascinating snapshot of a particular era. All those beiges!
    Harry Enfield did quite an amusing parody of On The Buses a few years back, which suddenly comes back to mind.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q1uHcGTK8k
    Coincidentally saw this brilliant old Harry Enfield clip on Twitter just now. Again one has to ask, would it get made now? Could be seen as misogynist, despite the fact it is clearly sending up archaic misogyny

    https://twitter.com/HarryEnfield6/status/1481935300549136387?s=20
    How much of Little Britain would be made today, only a decade and a half after the BBC first showed it?
    Computer says NO!
    It must be awful being a young person. Scared to have a sense of humour in case your friends cancel you on social media for finding something funny that they don’t. No wonder they’re all concerned about their mental health. I’m glad I’m old.
    There was an episode of Black Mirror that concentrated on this . A bit ahead of the time really (although that is Black Mirrors point!)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    God I completely missed this (first proper party for 2 years last night, yay!) nothing says "Sorry" to her maj more sincerely than asking her to knight Mr Fireplace to save your skin.

    Next round is Birthday Honours May/June, yes? Too late.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



    Is it really an issue if we get infected and people get no symptoms?
    Of course not. That's the ideal endpoint. Everyone gets it, yet not even a sniffle. Finito

    However it is premature to dismiss this subvariant right now. We just don't have enough data, and what we do have is cause for a mild frown. But that is all. And that is all I am doing. Frowning, in a mild way, while drinking coffee.

    If I start shrieking it probably means this is The Satan Variant, or I am on some really bad ayahuasca
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Original strain of Covid, or origanal strain of omicron? If the former, no worries. I seriously doubt it’s the latter, as there hasn’t been time.
    So no, don’t stress.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

    Known since early December

    It is not undetectable by PCR, it is merely impossible to identify as Omicron Vs delta by PCR. Irrelevant as e know everything is Omicron now anyway

    Don't like the sound of plus virulent. Of all the things I am right about the one I least want to say I told you so, is that the theory that it gets more benign with every wave is baloney
    Thanks for that doc link. It is safe to say, assuming that document portrays events as they happened, that animals were saved at the expense of humans and that non at-risk humans who worked for an animal charity were saved at the expense of at-risk humans.

    Whoever was responsible for or justifies this is beneath contempt.
    Hmm do you see the animal charity chaps as to blame? It was arguably not in principle unreasonable to ask*; it was up to the Gmt to allocate priorities.

    *Though misguided/tactless/optimistic/imprudent/etc in reality ...
    Not unfair. From the transcript it seems that those on the ground did allocate priorities but they were overridden.

    As for do I blame the animal charity well they asked. They weren't at particular risk so perhaps they shouldn't have asked.

    I think they thought that because they had their own plane they wouldn't be impinging on the evacuation effort but as the document makes clear the plane wasn't the issue. Perhaps no one explained that to them.
    Pen Farthing's setup has quite strange values.

    If you read his twitter feed you will have seen him flying Afghan street dogs to their new owners in California ...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    Re Williamson getting a knighthood, presumably it’s a bribe so he keeps his mouth shut. At a guess.

    Not that he is even good at that given his form as Defence Secretary
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?


    "A new strain of Omicron (BA2) is emerging in Europe.

    It is re-infecting those who were already infected with the original strain.

    Take away message; The virus will not become endemic

    We will have one wave of infection after the other

    FYI
    @MarkMcGowanMP

    @CHO_WAHealth

    #auspol"

    https://twitter.com/LettersfromTim/status/1482262854078443522?s=20

    Original strain of Covid, or origanal strain of omicron? If the former, no worries. I seriously doubt it’s the latter, as there hasn’t been time.
    So no, don’t stress.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

    Known since early December

    It is not undetectable by PCR, it is merely impossible to identify as Omicron Vs delta by PCR. Irrelevant as e know everything is Omicron now anyway

    Don't like the sound of plus virulent. Of all the things I am right about the one I least want to say I told you so, is that the theory that it gets more benign with every wave is baloney
    Thanks for that doc link. It is safe to say, assuming that document portrays events as they happened, that animals were saved at the expense of humans and that non at-risk humans who worked for an animal charity were saved at the expense of at-risk humans.

    Whoever was responsible for or justifies this is beneath contempt.
    Hmm do you see the animal charity chaps as to blame? It was arguably not in principle unreasonable to ask*; it was up to the Gmt to allocate priorities.

    *Though misguided/tactless/optimistic/imprudent/etc in reality ...
    Not unfair. From the transcript it seems that those on the ground did allocate priorities but they were overridden.

    As for do I blame the animal charity well they asked. They weren't at particular risk so perhaps they shouldn't have asked.

    I think they thought that because they had their own plane they wouldn't be impinging on the evacuation effort but as the document makes clear the plane wasn't the issue. Perhaps no one explained that to them.
    Pen Farthing's setup has quite strange values.

    If you read his twitter feed you will have seen him flying Afghan street dogs to their new owners in California ...
    Fuck me. Good reason not to read his twitter feed, mind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited January 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Explain to me Big G how Williamson's knighthood rekindles your enthusiasm for Johnsonian Conservatism as suggested in the Twitter thread?

    I am scratching my head to make the link but it seems counter- intuitive on all levels. What am I missing?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    And this is encouraging:


    "If BA.2 is managing to sustain the new case rate in Denmark it doesn’t seem to have a material effect on hospital admissions in terms of additional increase."

    https://twitter.com/youngvintage69/status/1482103738227740674?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Return to base, Agent Moore, your work is done:

    Still, congratulations to Charles Moore for successfully triggering the atmospheric pivot, by telling Boris to cancel Owen Peterson’s suspension. Quite phenomenal work.

    https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1482770431375560717?s=20
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,641
    Revealed: UK Gov’t Plans Publicity Blitz to Undermine Privacy of Your ChatsRevealed: UK Gov’t Plans Publicity Blitz to Undermine Privacy of Your Chats

    "According to documents reviewed by Rolling Stone, one the activities considered as part of the publicity offensive is a striking stunt — placing an adult and child (both actors) in a glass box, with the adult looking “knowingly” at the child as the glass fades to black. Multiple sources confirmed the campaign was due to start this month, with privacy groups already planning a counter-campaign."

    https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/revealed-uk-government-publicity-blitz-to-undermine-privacy-encryption-1285453/
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



    Is it really an issue if we get infected and people get no symptoms?
    Of course not. That's the ideal endpoint. Everyone gets it, yet not even a sniffle. Finito

    However it is premature to dismiss this subvariant right now. We just don't have enough data, and what we do have is cause for a mild frown. But that is all. And that is all I am doing. Frowning, in a mild way, while drinking coffee.

    If I start shrieking it probably means this is The Satan Variant, or I am on some really bad ayahuasca
    Careful or you will offend the opposite wing who would lift all restrictions immediately without bothering to look at any more evidence.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,118


    If I encounter an ad longer than 10s at the start of a youtube vid I click "back", then go back in to the video. Invasriably the ad has disappeared and i only have to wait 5s to skip.

    I think that's just that you get a different random ad and it's probably not going to be another 20s unskippable. I also do the back-out-and-reload, in the probably vain hope that if their analytics show people don't watch 20s ads they'll stop running them...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    "Dick as Head". Very good!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Aslan said:

    Brutal.


    Sancho is an outstanding winger. It isn't his fault that Man Utd are too tactically crap for his position to work.
    The score that counts

    Premier titles

    Man Utd 13 Liverpool 1

    and that is not changing this year !!!!!
    Please Big G, you are old and wise enough to know that football existed before the premiership/premier league.
    Total league titles

    Man Utd 20 Liverpool 19 and that is not changing this year
    Thanks! That’s a much fairer description! I hate the way the prem gets treated as if the old first division never existed.
    However, it does show just how poor Liverpool have been in winning Premiership titles and City will win this year
    For sure. I’d be rather concerned about how long Liverpool’s slump was, and think about united in the same way. Could be a long way to go before they win the prem again.
    Clubs that have had a truly great manager have suffered by comparison. Man U and Aberdeen with Ferguson, Liverpool with Shankly and Paisley, and Celtic with Stein. How do you keep up with that level of achievement? Money doesn’t buy it. Ask Chelsea.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    If this is you sober…..
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Explain to me Big G how Williamson's knighthood rekindles your enthusiasm for Johnsonian Conservatism as suggested in the Twitter thread?

    I am scratching my head to make the link but it seems counter- intuitive on all levels. What am I missing?
    I had no problem with Boris before Paterson and partygate

    He took us out of Europe and by good luck or management has made the big covid decisions correctly

    Remember , Starmer would have had us in the European Medicine Agency, resisted opening the economy in July, and wanted harsher restrictions constantly referring to Drakeford as his role model

    If the Paterson debacle and what followed had not happened, Boris would still be doing well in the polling

    Furthermore , I am a conservative and will rejoin once Boris leaves
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    If this is you sober…..
    Well, quite


    But please stop lying about my remarks. I've always thought well of you as a commenter, and it would be a shame if I had to change my mind. Is all. Shalom
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Revealed: UK Gov’t Plans Publicity Blitz to Undermine Privacy of Your ChatsRevealed: UK Gov’t Plans Publicity Blitz to Undermine Privacy of Your Chats

    "According to documents reviewed by Rolling Stone, one the activities considered as part of the publicity offensive is a striking stunt — placing an adult and child (both actors) in a glass box, with the adult looking “knowingly” at the child as the glass fades to black. Multiple sources confirmed the campaign was due to start this month, with privacy groups already planning a counter-campaign."

    https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/revealed-uk-government-publicity-blitz-to-undermine-privacy-encryption-1285453/

    Would love to know what they propose to use rather than encryption - as it’s sort of unavoidable unless you wish to send everything in plain text
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    We allow six weeks for a Safeguarder to provide an independent report. Sometimes they need longer, if the potential interviewees are uncooperative.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Explain to me Big G how Williamson's knighthood rekindles your enthusiasm for Johnsonian Conservatism as suggested in the Twitter thread?

    I am scratching my head to make the link but it seems counter- intuitive on all levels. What am I missing?
    I had no problem with Boris before Paterson and partygate

    He took us out of Europe and by good luck or management has made the big covid decisions correctly

    Remember , Starmer would have had us in the European Medicine Agency, resisted opening the economy in July, and wanted harsher restrictions constantly referring to Drakeford as his role model

    If the Paterson debacle and what followed had not happened, Boris would still be doing well in the polling

    Furthermore , I am a conservative and will rejoin once Boris leaves
    I disagree with much of what you say here, but we'll agree to disagree. The tweet suggests if Williamson is knighted equilibrium is returned. How?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    Well quite. So Tory MPs who say they need to wait to find out the facts are talking through their arse. Either do this properly or not at all. But the Gray report - and I mean no disrespect to her - is irrelevant.

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    "Dick as Head". Very good!
    I was criticised by some when I used just that phrase in one of my many headers excoriating the useless woman. But glad it is now finding favour.😀
  • BBC News - Texas synagogue hostage-taker was British
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60014006
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Explain to me Big G how Williamson's knighthood rekindles your enthusiasm for Johnsonian Conservatism as suggested in the Twitter thread?

    I am scratching my head to make the link but it seems counter- intuitive on all levels. What am I missing?
    I had no problem with Boris before Paterson and partygate

    He took us out of Europe and by good luck or management has made the big covid decisions correctly

    Remember , Starmer would have had us in the European Medicine Agency, resisted opening the economy in July, and wanted harsher restrictions constantly referring to Drakeford as his role model

    If the Paterson debacle and what followed had not happened, Boris would still be doing well in the polling

    Furthermore , I am a conservative and will rejoin once Boris leaves
    I disagree with much of what you say here, but we'll agree to disagree. The tweet suggests if Williamson is knighted equilibrium is returned. How?
    Williamson being knighted is plain wrong and not supported by me, but good to agree to disagree
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Explain to me Big G how Williamson's knighthood rekindles your enthusiasm for Johnsonian Conservatism as suggested in the Twitter thread?

    I am scratching my head to make the link but it seems counter- intuitive on all levels. What am I missing?
    I had no problem with Boris before Paterson and partygate

    He took us out of Europe and by good luck or management has made the big covid decisions correctly

    Remember , Starmer would have had us in the European Medicine Agency, resisted opening the economy in July, and wanted harsher restrictions constantly referring to Drakeford as his role model

    If the Paterson debacle and what followed had not happened, Boris would still be doing well in the polling

    Furthermore , I am a conservative and will rejoin once Boris leaves
    I disagree with much of what you say here, but we'll agree to disagree. The tweet suggests if Williamson is knighted equilibrium is returned. How?
    Williamson being knighted is plain wrong and not supported by me, but good to agree to disagree
    Indeed. Shameful, we all know the correct method for acquiring a knighthood these days is a bung not blackmail.
  • Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    We allow six weeks for a Safeguarder to provide an independent report. Sometimes they need longer, if the potential interviewees are uncooperative.
    I would have thought it would take at least 6 weeks to go through all the receipts from the local Co-op for all the booze that was purchased....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC is materially incapable of investing the same $10-12bn per year that the big three are pumping into TV show production and that's because it is limited by the licence fee and public funding model. The BBC could be a global powerhouse of TV production but it's not. That's because it can't raise the necessary money and invest in production houses, in house production and it can't cut the waste of having 17 replications of duties.

    It may be worth reminding people that the first season of the upcoming Lord of the Rings series on Amazon will cost Amazon more money (£340 M + £182 M for rights) than the entire BBC spends on drama in a year (£289 M for 2021). The BBC funded by the licence fee is a minnow in the TV world. Saving the licence fee will not save the BBC, further inaction will ultimately kill the BBC. If the BBC wants to be a major player in the streaming world, which is what TV is in the 21st century, things do have to change.
    Indeed. The lack of understanding about the global media landscape when our MPs and other numpties talk about the BBC and why it should or shouldn't keep the licence fee is laughable. The BBC pretence that £3.7bn per year or a number in that region is enough is also ridiculous. A media organisation today needs £12-15bn in revenue just to feed the media investment beast to create enough output for the following year. The BBC is uniquely placed as the major UK media organisation to take advantage of our huge TV and movie production capability and the dominance of English language media globally, but it has clung onto the licence model for 5 years too long instead of gambling on being a global streaming player.
    The BBC also has a GREAT brand. Still. But, as you say, they need to move fast to monetise and scale up, because in 5 years, certainly 10, it will be too late

    If they cling on to their present dwindling fee, which is evermore unsustainable, they are doomed to become one of the irrelevant state broadcasters of old Europe, somewhere between RTE in Ireland and RAI in Italy. Still significant at home but dwarfed globally, and increasingly ignored on any wider stage

    I actively want the BBC to survive, as a great British institution (and brand). But they need to wise up. To be fair I think plenty of people within the BBC know this. As it is so bloody obvious
    Britbox is a step in the right direction. It seems to have enough subscribers to be commissioning some original drama, which is positive.

    The BBC's output in drama is incredibly weak, but as you observe, everyone else's is moving that way too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited January 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    Well quite. So Tory MPs who say they need to wait to find out the facts are talking through their arse. Either do this properly or not at all. But the Gray report - and I mean no disrespect to her - is irrelevant.

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    "Dick as Head". Very good!
    I was criticised by some when I used just that phrase in one of my many headers excoriating the useless woman. But glad it is now finding favour.😀
    I missed your original work. I trust the royalty cheque from Ydoethur is in the post.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    edited January 2022
    Something is definitely happening in Denmark which is not happening in the UK. Both countries have good vax rates, and boosters (but the UK has a lot more prior immunity from infection)

    The Omicron waves looked similar in both countries, until Jan 10 (roughly) when the UK peaked and plunged. A couple of days before, Denmark seemed to do the same, but now Denmark's case load is going back up and still climbing.

    "UK is still close to 100% #Omicron BA.1 and its cases are dropping.

    BA.1 cases are also dropping in Denmark, but BA.2 now makes up nearly 50% and is sustaining the overall growth of cases.

    We must be prepared for BA.2 to get dominant everywhere sooner or later."

    https://twitter.com/b117science/status/1482681597182816258?s=20

    Strongly suggests BA2 is more transmissible than BA1, but as for greater or lesser severity or its power to reinfect, who knows. So far it is not doing anything to hospitalisations in Denmark, which is reassuring
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In fairness, it's *possible* that a lot of these voters might move back to supporting the government if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1482761706006847491

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1482739732723515396

    If Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb (the latter in particular) are knighted for the wasteland they have left in education I will not be responsible for my actions.
    I am but an ill-educated serf so I do not understand how knighthoods for Gibb and Williamson resurrect Tory support amongst disillusioned voters.

    7% inflation, repossessed houses and cars, but it's OK Gavin Williamson is a Sir.
    Williamson receiving a knighthood is absurd by any measure
    Explain to me Big G how Williamson's knighthood rekindles your enthusiasm for Johnsonian Conservatism as suggested in the Twitter thread?

    I am scratching my head to make the link but it seems counter- intuitive on all levels. What am I missing?
    I had no problem with Boris before Paterson and partygate

    He took us out of Europe and by good luck or management has made the big covid decisions correctly

    Remember , Starmer would have had us in the European Medicine Agency, resisted opening the economy in July, and wanted harsher restrictions constantly referring to Drakeford as his role model

    If the Paterson debacle and what followed had not happened, Boris would still be doing well in the polling

    Furthermore , I am a conservative and will rejoin once Boris leaves
    I disagree with much of what you say here, but we'll agree to disagree. The tweet suggests if Williamson is knighted equilibrium is returned. How?
    Williamson being knighted is plain wrong and not supported by me, but good to agree to disagree
    Indeed. Shameful, we all know the correct method for acquiring a knighthood these days is a bung not blackmail.
    Are you suggesting a black male cannot be knighted? Bloody racist!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    Something is definitely happening in Denmark which is not happening in the UK. Both countries have good vax rates, and boosters (but the UK has a lot more prior immunity from infection)

    The Omicron waves looked similar in both countries, until Jan 10 (roughly) when the UK peaked and plunged. A couple of days before Denmark seemed to do the same, but now Denmark's case load is going back up and still climbing.

    "UK is still close to 100% #Omicron BA.1 and its cases are dropping.

    BA.1 cases are also dropping in Denmark, but BA.2 now makes up nearly 50% and is sustaining the overall growth of cases.

    We must be prepared for BA.2 to get dominant everywhere sooner or later."

    https://twitter.com/b117science/status/1482681597182816258?s=20

    Strongly suggests BA2 is more transmissible than BA1, but as for greater or lesser severity or its power to reinfect, who knows. So far it is not doing anything to hospitalisations in Denmark, which is reassuring

    The difference is our immunity profile also includes a huge number of prior Delta and Omicron infections, something like 20m in the last 6 months.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    Well quite. So Tory MPs who say they need to wait to find out the facts are talking through their arse. Either do this properly or not at all. But the Gray report - and I mean no disrespect to her - is irrelevant.

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    "Dick as Head". Very good!
    I was criticised by some when I used just that phrase in one of my many headers excoriating the useless woman. But glad it is now finding favour.😀
    I missed your original work. I trust the royalty cheque from Ydoethur is in the post.
    No, because I'm ultimately a cheapskate.

    I did note it at the time though and thought it was a good line.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    If this is you sober…..
    Well, quite


    But please stop lying about my remarks. I've always thought well of you as a commenter, and it would be a shame if I had to change my mind. Is all. Shalom
    I didn’t say “you” lied - my comment was directed at the scandal and fear mongering tweet you posted from a Zero COVID zealot which implied that this was something unknown, new and shocking. It’s known, and has been for at least 6 weeks and is being monitored by the UKHSA. Peace.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    The sleaziest part of the whole thing to date, in a crowded field, is Downing street briefing that it already has expectations as to what gray is going to say. If I were her I would threaten to resign if any further such suggestion is made.

    There's a lot of puffery about how well 'ard she is, any suggestion of non-independence is purely about her structural position and entirely non-personal. In fact she seems to have form for burying bad news

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/partygate-investigator-helped-shield-no10-from-scrutiny-over-grenfell

    Being in charge of turning down FOI requests does not make you a bad person but it doesn't qualify you for her present job either
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918

    My favourite youtube channels that get mid range viewing (about 50K per video) are

    Steve Wallis - does a lot of stealth camping (warms my wannabe anarchist heart ! Typical canadian - calm, polite unassuming , actually seems genuinely scared of being caught

    Joolz guide to London - Tour guide who would win a medal for cheerfulness!

    Golfmates - mid range golf handicapers messing around on mid tier golf courses. Good Lancashire lad anchoring it ,down to earth.

    Numberphile - maths stuff for lay people - best are Matt Parker (really clever but engaging presenter) and Hannah Fry who has the most seductive voice ever .

    Gotham chess - International Master from New York who goes right across the chess landscape from crap players to world championship games

    I prefer Eric Rosen over Gotham, but they're both excellent.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    The invisible assailant could strike any moment in an attempt to tip this over the edge, but does prefer weekday afternoons and ITN.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So hushed up it’s in the UKHSA report:

    BA.2 sub-lineage
    As of January 10 2022, 53 sequences of the BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron had been identified in the United Kingdom.

    This sub-lineage, which was designated by Pangolin on 6 December 2021, does not have the spike gene deletion at 69-70 that causes S-gene target failure (SGTF), which has previously been used as a proxy to detect cases of Omicron. UKHSA are continuing to monitor data on the BA.2 sub-lineage closely.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

    Can you point to anyone on the thread who claimed this is being "hushed up"?
    You presented as “shocking, worrying news” something the U.K. government published a couple of days ago. You may gain greater credibility by researching around a topic before posting Zero COVID zealot tweets….
    Where exactly did I say this was being hushed up? I didn't. You lied.

    Also, the extent of my scare-mongering - "presenting shocking, worrying news" - was saying:


    "Er, WTF is this? Should I be worried? A new Omicron variant?"

    Just questions.

    I then said:

    "Denmark is a little troubling"


    And


    "there is, genuinely, some agitating evidence, albeit embryonic"

    That's it. If you want to see scare-mongering come back in four hours when I've hard a jar of gin. Otherwise, fuck off. I know some PB-ers find it mentally hard to deal with POTENTIALLY bad news (and this is all it is right now, POTENTIALLY) but it's not my job to guard your egg-shell psyches
    You shouldn't be worried.
    This Danish article (and they do seem to have the most Omicron BA2) is *relatively* calm. Yes it is probably more transmissible, hence it is taking over from BA1, but it does not seem to be any more dangerous, yet

    https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/oestjylland/undervariant-af-omikron-vinder-frem-i-danmark


    The main worry, such as it is, seems to be its ability - moot, at this point - to reinfect. Maybe even reinfect people who got Omicron Classic. Fingers x'd it ain't so. That would be an arse-ache

    More details here if you dive into the thread:



    Tim White
    @TWMCLtd
    Back to #Denmark now where I've been wondering why #Covid19 cases started increasing again.

    I was alerted to what looks like a new sub-strain of #Omicron a few days ago and it does now look to be fuelling the rise

    thx
    @humanrightsstar

    @TrumpCritic



    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1482423764780564480?s=20



    Is it really an issue if we get infected and people get no symptoms?
    It won't be no symptoms, surely? It'll be cold like symptoms. After all, us sneezing and coughing is how respiratory viruses mostly spread themselves.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Leon said:

    Something is definitely happening in Denmark which is not happening in the UK. Both countries have good vax rates, and boosters (but the UK has a lot more prior immunity from infection)

    The Omicron waves looked similar in both countries, until Jan 10 (roughly) when the UK peaked and plunged. A couple of days before, Denmark seemed to do the same, but now Denmark's case load is going back up and still climbing.

    "UK is still close to 100% #Omicron BA.1 and its cases are dropping.

    BA.1 cases are also dropping in Denmark, but BA.2 now makes up nearly 50% and is sustaining the overall growth of cases.

    We must be prepared for BA.2 to get dominant everywhere sooner or later."

    https://twitter.com/b117science/status/1482681597182816258?s=20

    Strongly suggests BA2 is more transmissible than BA1, but as for greater or lesser severity or its power to reinfect, who knows. So far it is not doing anything to hospitalisations in Denmark, which is reassuring

    I'm really not sure Denmark does look like the UK up to the 10th.

    Unless Google is giving me fake figures, they were rising steadily, just with an artificial dip due to 2 days of lower tests on new years weekend. If anything the last week looks a little lower than the week before.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Further to my post way back at the beginning of this thread, is there a chance Johnson can cancel the boundary changes?

    We know that he will throw anyone to the lions to save his own skin. Anyone. So why not sacrifice a stack of other tory MPs to make his own constituency safer?

    Thoughts?!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    The sleaziest part of the whole thing to date, in a crowded field, is Downing street briefing that it already has expectations as to what gray is going to say. If I were her I would threaten to resign if any further such suggestion is made.

    There's a lot of puffery about how well 'ard she is, any suggestion of non-independence is purely about her structural position and entirely non-personal. In fact she seems to have form for burying bad news

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/partygate-investigator-helped-shield-no10-from-scrutiny-over-grenfell

    Being in charge of turning down FOI requests does not make you a bad person but it doesn't qualify you for her present job either

    She is, apparently, allergic to putting things in writing. Which is something I always find extremely suspicious.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    Well quite. So Tory MPs who say they need to wait to find out the facts are talking through their arse. Either do this properly or not at all. But the Gray report - and I mean no disrespect to her - is irrelevant.

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    "Dick as Head". Very good!
    I was criticised by some when I used just that phrase in one of my many headers excoriating the useless woman. But glad it is now finding favour.😀
    Surely if the Met have no interest in prosecuting a breach of the law with the information already in the public domain, I can't see anything Ms Gray unearths being any more interesting to them.

    Maybe they are busy with more important work like speed control monitoring of 20mph zones.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Something is definitely happening in Denmark which is not happening in the UK. Both countries have good vax rates, and boosters (but the UK has a lot more prior immunity from infection)

    The Omicron waves looked similar in both countries, until Jan 10 (roughly) when the UK peaked and plunged. A couple of days before Denmark seemed to do the same, but now Denmark's case load is going back up and still climbing.

    "UK is still close to 100% #Omicron BA.1 and its cases are dropping.

    BA.1 cases are also dropping in Denmark, but BA.2 now makes up nearly 50% and is sustaining the overall growth of cases.

    We must be prepared for BA.2 to get dominant everywhere sooner or later."

    https://twitter.com/b117science/status/1482681597182816258?s=20

    Strongly suggests BA2 is more transmissible than BA1, but as for greater or lesser severity or its power to reinfect, who knows. So far it is not doing anything to hospitalisations in Denmark, which is reassuring

    The difference is our immunity profile also includes a huge number of prior Delta and Omicron infections, something like 20m in the last 6 months.
    As I point out in my comment to which you are replying:

    "the UK has a lot more prior immunity from infection"

    That's a pretty good wall of immunity. We must hope that Omicron BA2 can't easily jump over it. I cannot yet find any evidence online that BA2 is more (or less) severe, nor any hard evidence that it can reinfect

    Nonetheless the Danish data (and Norway) is a cause for modest concern. We should brace ourselves for the possibility that our cases numbers MIGHT start climbing again, if and when BA2 makes it here
  • Heathener said:

    Further to my post way back at the beginning of this thread, is there a chance Johnson can cancel the boundary changes?

    We know that he will throw anyone to the lions to save his own skin. Anyone. So why not sacrifice a stack of other tory MPs to make his own constituency safer?

    Thoughts?!!!

    The boundary changes make Boris Johnson's seat safer.

    But apart from that, great post.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Anyone remember “the Johnson variant”?

    Boris Johnson's recklessness means we're going to have an NHS summer crisis.

    The Johnson Variant is already out of control - and we're heading to 100,000 cases a day


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1417185971284496384?s=20

    Then there was “let’s vaccinate public servants (teachers, police etc) ahead of oldies….

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1482774149701541892?s=20
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    Well quite. So Tory MPs who say they need to wait to find out the facts are talking through their arse. Either do this properly or not at all. But the Gray report - and I mean no disrespect to her - is irrelevant.

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    Well, of course it can't be. But that isn't her job.

    Buying a large bucket of whitewash and pouring it all over takes about five minutes. I'm surprised she even needs a week, tbh.

    (On a more serious note, the question isn't whether they happened - it's about what rules were broken. And since it's abundantly clear that many laws were broken, all she really can and should do is refer it to the police. For whatever good that will be with the egregious Dick as Head.)
    "Dick as Head". Very good!
    I was criticised by some when I used just that phrase in one of my many headers excoriating the useless woman. But glad it is now finding favour.😀
    I missed your original work. I trust the royalty cheque from Ydoethur is in the post.
    There you go - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/01/what-now/
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573

    Anyone remember “the Johnson variant”?

    Boris Johnson's recklessness means we're going to have an NHS summer crisis.

    The Johnson Variant is already out of control - and we're heading to 100,000 cases a day


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1417185971284496384?s=20

    Then there was “let’s vaccinate public servants (teachers, police etc) ahead of oldies….

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1482774149701541892?s=20

    Every decision the government has made has either been following the scientific advice, or right. Debatable how often those two things converged.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited January 2022
    I somehow have the feeling there's more videos or leaks coming next week. Whenever there seems to be a bit of a lull or some respite, they always seem to reemerge.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a professional investigator who has done more investigations than most - and certainly more than Sue Gray - I would like to say that given -

    1. the number of parties and other social events
    2. the number of witnesses who would need interviewing - some maybe more than once
    3. the emails, chats, phone messages and other electronic records which need collecting, checking and reviewing and checking against witness interviews
    4. the internal instructions, as well as other applicable guidelines, which need reviewing

    there is no way on earth that all this can be done properly and a comprehensive report written by the end of this week.

    This from David Allen Green is also good - https://twitter.com/law_and_policy/status/1482682663232327681?s=21.

    We allow six weeks for a Safeguarder to provide an independent report. Sometimes they need longer, if the potential interviewees are uncooperative.
    I would have thought it would take at least 6 weeks to go through all the receipts from the local Co-op for all the booze that was purchased....
    You'd want to look at people's work calendars and diaries and CCTV as well and all of this stuff over a year for 2 separate periods. It's a hell of a lot of work and you'd want a professional team on it, including IT people to collect and preserve and verify all the electronic material.

    Sue Gray has none of that.

    It really pisses me off when investigations are just given to whoever is available - as if it's a matter of asking a few questions - rather than given to those who are expert in this stuff. Investigations are hard to do right. Even the police often can't manage it. This is skilled work.

    (Yeah I know I am talking my book - but I and my team did thousands of investigations - and in none of them did anyone, whether internal or external, ever query our factual findings, even if there was sometimes debate about what the right disciplinary proceedings should be - which was not my job anyway.)
    Really not sure that is right. The English legal establishment is overwhelmingly in favour of *thoroughness* to the extent that Commercfial Court Trials take 20 weeks where the equivalent court in a European jurisdiction would set aside a couple of days (literally) to determine the same issue. Because everybody involved is paid by the day. You could easily in a couple of days max find the smoking guns in partygate, or that there aren't any, by looking at the relevant email accounts. A couple of hours would actually be fine because you are only looking at the time between the invite email, and the party happening.

    What Johnson has done is quite clever, though he almost certainly doesn't realise, because the terms of ref ("general overview") would suggest a quick in-and-out smoking gun hunt, whereas there's no chance of that happening
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