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Johnson: leading his party into opposition? – politicalbetting.com
Johnson: leading his party into opposition? – politicalbetting.com
At GE2019 the Tories secured their big majority by taking a GB vote share which was just under 12% above LAB. In the past 24 hours we have had one poll with Starmer’s party now 14% ahead. That is an overall change of nearly 26% which is huge.
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Both men are dishonest opportunistic charlatans who have sold out any principles they ever had.
So fairly typical politicians of the Twitter age, sadly.
I hate liars, they steal the truth and try and sell it back to you.
A liar, a dirty liar,
he lies to get this way,
When caught, he'll say he didn't,
he's not the least bit sky.
He lies to cover up his dirt,
but there's no way to hide.
His face is always red with guilt.
I guess that's how he's made.
He'll never change, there's no doubt.
He's a dirty liar.
Your bitter and inaccurate knee-jerk reaction to adversity is fairly typical of anonymous polemicists of the obscure blog age.
You are disingenuous suggesting Starmer's parity with Johnson in the scoundrel stakes. That is patently untrue unless you can cite his 1001 scandals to match Johnson's.
The question is, does the Conservative Party come out of Partygate with clean skin? Quite possibly it does. The opposition parties need to apportion blame equally to Johnson and the Conservative Party for accepting his excuses.
*Cut to 2024*
American Pundits: It is absolutely astounding that Trump has stolen the election, no-one saw it coming. Completely blindsided us.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1482355548565745670
Due to data lag it looks like SA deaths may have peaked in week 52, not now (week 2). When I stopped tracking week 52 they had recorded 704 deaths for the week. Two weeks later and week 52 now stands a 996 deaths.
This does demonstrate the problem with trying to extrapolate things from SA data.
I don't think it is inconceivable that Lord Frost could take on that role from the Lords.
Oh I see. Yes.
Labour are currently triumphant but face colossal risks. A Burgon, a Jezza, allowing Diane Abbott on the media, a few anti Israel actions by Labour's anti Semites would place them back where they were. The extreme left never goes away, as jezza's reign proved, it morphs and waits.
SKS's number 1 priority is avoiding risk. he is right to avoid Southend and the criticism it would attract.
What I notice is that when asked about Labour's breaking of rules a la Tory ones, their denials are quiet and brief and question averting. They are clearly not sure that discipline has been maintained.
All politics being relative, while Boris is (I think) finished the Tories are not. They will be be very keen to level the playing field and neutralise the attack in due course by 'they were no better than us' in the bad old Boris days.
Triumphalists of the centre left might like to check out with Oddschecker the odds on 'Government after Next GE'. The Tory majority are favourites at 15/8. Lab minority 3/1. Lab maj 11/2. Food for thought.
Waiting until the locals at least gives Boris the chance to recover a bit after ending the remaining Covid restrictions etc. If he doesn't then a change can be made.
Given the NEV in the 2018 locals saw the Tories on 35% while the NEV in 2019 saw the Tories on only 28% anyway, a new leader is more likely to get a bounce translating into the locals next year when the 2019 council seats are up again. This year it is the 2018 locals up again
There is much in what you say. But who is favourite is about as meaningful as your horoscope.
Also for @Farooq from the previous thread, my home is infinitely more elegant and, importantly, comfortable than anything that ghastly Lulu character will have dreamt up. One of the many advantages of having an elegant Italian mother is developing a good eye for clothes, shoes, handbags and interior decoration.
Of course if you want something that looks like a headache-inducing brothel I am not your woman. But I think you've probably guessed that by now
Even more than Corbyn Boris needs to be told by Starmer to get a suit and shirts that fit him and to brush his hair. He looks a disgrace. It is pathetic in a man of his age.
Back when he was running for Tory leader one of the things that put him in pole position were polls showing he'd beat Corbyn convincingly in a head to head. And the Corbyn he was beating there was not the 'discredited' Corbyn of GE19, it was the Corbyn who was neck & neck with Mrs May in polls and also neck & neck (or better) against the likes of Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove, indeed against all the realistic Con alternatives bar one - a certain Boris Johnson.
The guy was genuinely popular when he became our PM, and much as one might wish to explain this away by reference to Jeremy Corbyn it remains a regrettable fact.
It was always true that Boris's wheels would come off. I think they have. But even on that matter, as of now, I wouldn't bet the farm.
Boris's wheels coming off and Tory wheels ditto are two different things. This is a time when SKS needs to be super cautious. For example he could cause a personal train wreck by giving the merest hint of Labour's actual post GE policy about anything real. Can he hold that for ever? We shall find out.
- reads quite well.
"Johnson likes to be loved but he likes being feared even more. This can get you far in politics, indeed has got him to the top. When that love fades and the fear goes – and they will, one day – his fall will be worth watching. For those who believe that ruthlessness and ambition, untempered by competence and integrity, are dangerous, that day cannot come soon enough."
All you seem to be asking for is give Boris just a little bit more time? So There is no reason the leadership candidates should wait.
NB Hunt, Tugendhat and Rishi are Charterhouse, St Paul's and Harrow respectively. Plus ca change!
In 2019 I wrote a piece for the @NewStatesman on "The Closing of the Conservative Mind". I argued that Conservatism had become intellectually rudderless & incapable of serious thinking about policy. Johnson's rise was a symptom of that crisis, & it will survive his fall. [THREAD]
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1482362175444471809
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1482310328436285440
Especially this bit
3.This is where Johnson's "boosterism" differs from, say, "Thatcherism".
Thatcherism (love it or hate it) was a serious policy programme. "Boosterism" is a state of mind:a vague call to "believe in Britain".
It's politics as faith-healing, driven by the power of personal belief
None of the potential candidates can take over the Church of BoZo. They will have to come up with a solid policy platform instead. At which point they are fucked.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
However next year 34% would still be a bounce given the Tories only got 28% in the 2019 locals
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Post referendum the remain camp were never beaten, they beat themselves. And with it went the sane solution of Norway for Now. Bonkers.
53% of ConHome members agree
Everywhere is RAMMED. I haven't seen London this lively in yonks. Most pubs are pleasantly full - people were QUEUEING to get into the Spaniard's by Kenwood, the markets are chocka, shops are bustling, high streets are crowded. The UK economy has bounced back to pre-pandemic size this last quarter and it actually feels like it. Like normality plus an extra sense of relief that this winter is so much better than the last, and that Covid might finally be effing off
We could be in for an economic boomlet, despite the threat of inflation etc, simple from the sheer animal spirits that will be unleashed as we are uncaged. It definitely felt that way today in the Smoke
Yay
Meanwhile, according to the helpful updates provided by ourworldindata.org, their Omicron casedemic continues to track that of the UK with an approximate 2.5 week lag. Indeed, it looks likely that, when today's stats are updated, the Dutch and UK numbers will achieve crossover and they'll go ahead of us.
Panic lockdown for a month, followed by a miserable slow crawl out the other side: this is the kind of policy that a lot of people were jumping up and down and screaming for in this country before Christmas. And it's been a dreadful failure.
This experience has been a disaster for the Dutch people, but we should also be thankful for their sacrifice. If nobody had tried a lockdown against Omicron then the iSAGE tendency would doubtless have continued to insist that not doing it was a missed opportunity, that a "circuit breaker" would've relieved the pressure on the NHS, and so on and so forth. As it is, we now know that this tactic is useless and any further appeals for it can be disregarded. Thank God.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Conservative politicians should be talking about how they made the right decisions about Omicron and how the economy and society benefitted from it while demanding the removal of all remaining restrictions.
Instead they're having to deal with the consequences of stupidity and immaturity from Downing Street.
Ironic isn't it.
It was 1:9:0 with one recognised defender, 9 midfielders (including several youth players) and no striker.
Fielding a fit team is a real problem at the moment, as Arsenal is finding too. The League is quite a farce this year.
The Remain campaign forced the issue of Brexit to be the only issue for many months after it really wasn't. So in 2019 at the GE you had - Tory (let's get on) vs Others (toys out of the pram and nothing to offer)
I can't see really that it was much other than that.
But anything subsequently repeating the same thing, yes, begins to work against him rather than for him.
There must be a reckoning. Nothing punitive, but we need answers and - if needs be - apologies
Starmer would also refuse an indyref2 in favour of a Brown grand commission on devomax and a Federal UK unless the SNP hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. Expect Alba to grow further as a result
We are following South Africa quite closely. A sharp spike in cases, almost vertically up and down, then a more gentle descent in hospital admits, and then - we hope - deaths
And the hospital cases are way less serious
The other good news is that, despite being chased away by a red-tailed hawk yesterday, one of the bald eagles is back again today.
The Welsh and Scottish administrations got it wrong and sacrificed their hospitality industry at the critical time of year for those businesses to own the Tories. They failed. The press needs to hold them to account.
https://youtu.be/gtW6fgrUIMI
Furthermore, British interior design is rightly admired the world over, so I am not sure why having Italian ancestry, lovely though that is, automatically qualifies you as an arbiter of good interior style.
Much scope for debate whether it's character flaws or mistaken actions or a bit of both
z
It's fucking brilliant. Is this over now? "The long 2 year winter" as you aptly describe it?
I am still making burnt offerings at the altar of Covid Hubris, but the auguries are.... hopeful
However 34% would still be an improvement on the 28% in 2019. A Starmer leadership at this stage would be less about trying to still win the next general election but more about trying to save the furniture. Therefore converting the Labour majority government polls forecast now into a Labour minority government in a hung parliament and saving some Tory MPs seats
What are your expectations for Alba growth in the upcoming locals?
It wasn't ever thus but now I know he's irredeemably toxic.