Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
Nothing that legally says the PM cannot be in the Lords - although I imagine that there would be no such thing as a safe seat for a by-election these days, if a party tried to force one in such circumstances.
Halifax turned down PMship in 1940 on account of being a Lord
Is that so? I'd always assumed Labour wouldn't support him.
I read a couple of articles that had it as his for taking, but bottled it. He didn’t fancy being a war leader. Didn’t think we could win. Didn’t want to fight. The recent film of Churchill portrayed it like this? Is this revisionist history? It’s been revised and is more accurate?
Labour wanted Halifax and that was the general consensus of the Commons. The King wanted Halifax and was a bit upset when Halifax raised the objection of being a peer and so not able to operate effectively in the House.
That’s where I disagree with you Rottenborough. I can’t do it because I am a Lord buries the truth and distorts true history which needs to be revised, therefore your favourite history books on your shelf you always thought was history are lying to you and you need to get new ones. The truth being “havn’t slept for a week thinking I have to be war PM, I think we should make deal with Germans anyway.”
Halifax accepted that there was no constitutional bar on him being PM in the Lords; he turned the job down primarily because he didn't want to do it and recognised that Churchill would overshadow him, whatever their official statuses.
By 1940, it wasn't even accepted that a PM couldn't sit in the Lords. It was only 38 years then since it had last happened (the equivalent of 1984 from now), and Curzon had been seriously considered as a PM candidate in the early 1920s.
While it was certainly seen as unhelpful that a PM might sit in a House where the main opposition had barely any representation, it wasn't an absolute bar.
In any case, there were provisions that could have been made to ease the difficulty. One was to amend the HoC standing orders, to allow a non-MP PM to be able to address MPs from within the chamber; IIRC, another would have been for the king to put Halifax's peerage into abeyance.
Either way, you don't lose a world war for a point of minor constitutional principle which wasn't even convention at that stage. Had Halifax been the MP and Churchill the peer (far from impossible), it's very likely that the latter would still have become PM.
Awesome post.
Opening bit
“ Halifax accepted that there was no constitutional bar on him being PM in the Lords; he turned the job down primarily because he didn't want to do it and recognised that Churchill would overshadow him, whatever their official statuses. “.
Absolutely spot on as the history as I know it. But does raise questions as, not without skills and merit was Halifax nonetheless not leadership material crucially in his own mind? And how history books would wrongly copy each other as the reason for the decision as something else?
One of the weaknesses of history books and historians is how so much of it just copies each other? Especially now in the internet age, it’s not so many sources as it appears if all says same thing with so few alternative perspectives.
Indeed - going back to primary sources often reveals interesting things.
A very good recent example was "Shattered Sword: The Untold Story of the Battle of Midway" which pointed out that much of the layers of scholarship on the battle was wrong. Among other things, the Japanese carriers had physical limitations which meant that various things couldn't be true. And a major Japanese source had been proved to be less than accurate y historians in Japan....
From my reading of the period, Halifax saw himself as the wrong man to be PM - in a World War*. I think he would have jumped at the job, if it had been a matter of managing the continuing recovery of the economy, dealing with social issues and a bit of diplomacy.
*I seem to recall a story, that one of the pacifist types in the Labour party asked Atlee why he was serving under that "ghastly warmonger and warlover, Churchill?". Atlee is supposed to have replied that the country needed a warmonger.
I think what you have added to what David posted nails it now.
“ Halifax accepted that there was no constitutional bar on him being PM in the Lords; he turned the job down primarily because he didn't want to do it and recognised that Churchill would overshadow him, whatever their official statuses. “.
+
“ Halifax saw himself as the wrong man to be PM in a war “
= pretty much the true history of what happened. 👍🏻
Though still probably some questions around prevalence of “sign a truce rather than attempt a war” feeling? Like you said, go back to original sources, that would be a view of it from the other side of the war, without knowing that we won, without full or any awareness of the horrors of the concentration camps, and likely so many other ways where the view would be different, than the view of the same spot in history post war.
Halifax hated Hitler. His position *before* the fall of France was that no peace was possible with Germany, if Hitler was still in charge. We know this because he said this (and it was documented as being said) to an intermediary* with the German government.
It was after the French defeat that he suggested the old WWI plan of an armistice with Germany if the BEF was pushed out of France and France fell.
Basically - "Shit, the Germans have won. What do we do now?"
*Swedish chap, IIRC.
Oh we are carrying on over here. Nice.
So the next question would be, were we all that concerned with Germans Partying victory in Paris… in 1871? Historically we sided with other people against the French. The rise of German Empire in the Second Reich (I understand is German for rich - the Holy Roman Empire being the first rich) complicates things leaves Britain uncertain about a German Empire controlling or dominating mainland Europe in upstart crow of an Empire to rival our own? That is then thinking as we go into First World War, and into the 20th century… yet, there is still all these books and TV programmes about how close UK upper classes were to the Germans in the thirties? You see what I mean?
The continental policy of the UK was to try and prevent one power taking over the whole thing. If they did, they could then amass enough naval power to overwhelm us.
Until 1870, that was France. Bismarck was very careful to manoeuvre France into declaring war in 1870 - which meant we stayed neutral. Because he was about to construct a bigger power than France and wanted no interruptions.
WWI was largely about this, for the UK.
After WWI, many people believed in Anything But That, Ever Again. This was taken by many to mean friendship with Germany. Since it was believed that the rhetoric in the run up to WWI had been part of the problem....
The rise of Hitler then split politics into four groups - Hitler = War (Churchill etc), Appeasement, The Pacifists No Matter What* and a small group who actually like Hitler.
*Who believed in Disarmament as a cure for everything.
What you call small group who liked Hitler (or perhaps fascism, as he wasn’t only the new style of leader turning his country around as it may have appeared) were nonetheless in the main very wealthy, well connected, and owned lots of stuff?
Panic is over isn't it, people can see that omicron is 'nothing to worry about' and besides we've done christmas, so if you get it now its a week off/isolating/wfh...
You can't get boosted if you've had COVID within 28(?) days.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Erm, isn't Singapore a democracy? Even if the same side always wins.
Not as we know it.....
Ranks below Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in SE Asia:
It is also far richer than any of those, indeed it is one of the richest countries on the planet
And it has zero crime
I’ve said this before on PB: 90% of people, if offered a choice between life in rich, crime-free, not-very-democratic Singapore, or life in a less rich, more dangerous, properly democratic alternative, would choose Singapore
Which is why Singapore is a challenge to liberal democracies (and liberalism) and why democracy is entirely doomed, long term. The super-computers will be the Singapore government on steroids. Cold, calculating, but phenomenally efficient at producing results
Yes, and you can make a similar case about Rwanda.
The challenge is a) to stop the person in charge going mad, despite all the power and b) arranging a peaceful and successful succession to someone equally benign thereafter.
b) in particular is exceptionally difficult, and when things normally fall apart.
Panic is over isn't it, people can see that omicron is 'nothing to worry about' and besides we've done christmas, so if you get it now its a week off/isolating/wfh...
The real issue was the take up in the over 50s - which has been good.
It confirms that Cummings is infuriatingly clever and cunning - if you are his enemy
This is superbly bang-on:
“Cummings thinks remainers are invariably fools, above all the better-educated ones, because they are incapable of accepting that they might be wrong. His shorthand for these people is Jolyons (after the remainer lawyer Jolyon Maugham) or, as he says of Keir Starmer, the ones who can’t resist giving “the London idiot answer” to any difficult question because they daren’t think for themselves. When Starmer got himself tangled up over the question of whether “only women have a cervix”, it was, Cummings says, because “he’s a dead player working off a script” – and the voters can smell that a mile off.”
Remainers are invariably fools, ESPECIALLY the posher ones. Absolutely right
The article also contains the brilliant revelation that the only reason Cummings and Boris prorogued parliament was to drive their opponents crazy (it worked), get them to talk about nothing else, until they eventually went so mad they provoked an election
I guess Cummings could be lying, but if it’s true it’s genius. It all went wrong for Boris when he lost this guy
Na, it is just that he like you, wants to rebut the idea that Leavers are generally thick, so it remains an obsession of his, like it is yours. It is OK @Leon, you aren't all thick. Obsessed about a trivial and pointless thing, yes, but not all of you are stupid. That feel better now?
He's got a point about some remainers not being able to think independently of the consensus liberal London view. It's the whole argument I've had loads of times with a few people on here about wages at the lower end, there's loads of studies saying it wasn't impacted by A10 migration but then we've had loads of real world evidence of wage rises for those people since Brexit because of low skilled labour shortages. It's like those same people who can't see beyond the phrase "follow the science" on the pandemic. Sometimes the consensus view is wrong and it's been difficult to get some more ardent remainers to see that, whether that's on wages for the lower skilled or on the correct post-vaccine pandemic response.
It's almost as if the consensus is there to exist and not be challenged, which we know is a recipe for disaster in the long term.
Yes. I think it’s essentially the religious module in the human brain, which is at work here, the bit of our mind wired for faith. Except god is replaced by secular atheist faith in this or that liberal piety. In this case, the secular faith is EU membership
The mad posh Remainers confronted by Brexit are like hardcore Catholics confronted by “heresy”. They cannot understand how or why anyone would believe this, Brexit is evil and wrong and can never be right.
You know, I get everything you’re saying. I can see what you mean about posh Remainers.
From my decidedly non-posh standpoint, I think what appals me most about Brexit is that Red Wall people have been promised that we will Take Back Control. And we will.
But I fear, and nothing has happened to disabuse me of this notion, in fact things like that Leeds leg of HS2 being cancelled reinforce it, is that Red Wallers have been persuaded to hand back control to a system that, more often than not, elects Conservative governments that, more often than not, screw the north, the people I love and the communities I am part of.
The EU, or EEC as it was then, handed over big bucks through coalfield regeneration funding, which did help. Now I might be wrong, but I suspect a Conservative government wouldn’t have done such a thing.
Yes, we’re free to spend our own money now how we want. The point being the country very often chooses to elect a government that chooses to spend a disproportionate amount in the South East and London.
I suspect that Boris is now expendable. He got the Red Wallers vote, he sang the siren song on levelling up. Will it last or will the Tory Party revert to type? I suspect the latter.
Yes, wages have gone up for some unskilled people. Will it last? Will they be eaten up by inflation?
Red Wallers were convinced, I think, to vote to hand control from one remote bureaucracy, the EU, that at least had their interests at heart to some extent, though no doubt many will disagree, and give that control to another remote bureaucracy, in Westminster, that very often doesn’t give a rat’s arse about the north and the Midlands.
That's the con trick that really pisses me off.
Maybe I’ll be proved wrong. But I think Boris being flushed away will see levelling up go with him and the party return to type. Belt-tightening, inflation, post-pandemic austerity. Red Wallers will be no better off.
If you're a right-winger and you're wanting the market to run free, Britannia Unleashed, all that kind of thing, then fair enough, my wailing above probably doesn't touch you one bit. But, from what I can gather, when people up here ticked Leave in 2016, that's not what they thought they were going to get.
I agree with much of this diagnosis
Just two points: I don’t believe the Tories will return to ‘austerity’ for quite a while (unless forced by circumstances like a looming default). Big debt is with us for the medium term, as the global economy recovers from Covid (ins’allah)
Also, it’s not true to say Brexit has replaced one remote bureaucracy with another. We are now properly democratic. If the Red Wallers are angry at the Tory government’s betrayal (and fair enough, it’s not looking good) they can have the electoral satisfaction of sweeping them out of office, in humiliating style. Not something they can do to the EU Commission
And that, for me, was pretty much the whole point of Brexit
They won't be daft enough to call it austerity, but a rose by any other name, and all that.
There is that potential electoral satisfaction, yes you're right. And I get what you're saying about the EU Commission. It's a perfectly valid point. For you Brexit's the greater good, we've reverted to the better system. Fine. I just disagree. For me the lesser evil, in terms of the north, was being in the EU. But that battle's been lost. Ah well.
I really don’t see what the EU ‘did for the north’. They just took British taxpayers’ money and randomly gave SOME back to poorer parts of the UK, but most of our money went to Eastern Europe. How is that a ‘good deal’ for the North of England?
And the idea that fat Eurocrats in Strasbourg brasseries spent their time worrying about ‘voters in Stoke’ is worthy of a cartoon
'Some' being better than the square root of bugger all that we got before! It's like this levelling up funding that is being poured into constituencies that went blue in 2019, or have become marginal. There was a story over Xmas I saw that some Tory peer got some of it to fill potholes in on a private road in his estate. It never gets to the places that really need it.
Maybe I'm naive but I think that Eurocrats did worry, or at least care, about the poorer parts of the UK. Certainly more than many of our domestic politicians. Give me a choice between a Eurocrat or JRM...
Inefficient and undemocratic they might have been, but they actually had some sort of a mechanism for levelling up.
The current alternative seems to be the odd bung to Tory constituencies.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Erm, isn't Singapore a democracy? Even if the same side always wins.
Not as we know it.....
Ranks below Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in SE Asia:
It is also far richer than any of those, indeed it is one of the richest countries on the planet
And it has zero crime
I’ve said this before on PB: 90% of people, if offered a choice between life in rich, crime-free, not-very-democratic Singapore, or life in a less rich, more dangerous, properly democratic alternative, would choose Singapore
Which is why Singapore is a challenge to liberal democracies (and liberalism) and why democracy is entirely doomed, long term. The super-computers will be the Singapore government on steroids. Cold, calculating, but phenomenally efficient at producing results
Have you lived in Singapore, or just stayed in the nice hotels in the carefully manicured centre?
If you haven't already, next time you're there take the MRT on the NS line to Jurong East and get a view of the "real" Singapore.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
On top of all the fact of all these parties, there seems to be a hell of a lot of people who have left #10 over the past year or so. Given all these seem to do is having parties, makes you wonder why they are all jumping ship.
A lot of these people were hired up on short term contracts to deal with Covid-19 and Brexit.
Kate Josephs is Chief Executive of Sheffield City Council but a lot of others have gone to high paying jobs in the private sector.
It confirms that Cummings is infuriatingly clever and cunning - if you are his enemy
This is superbly bang-on:
“Cummings thinks remainers are invariably fools, above all the better-educated ones, because they are incapable of accepting that they might be wrong. His shorthand for these people is Jolyons (after the remainer lawyer Jolyon Maugham) or, as he says of Keir Starmer, the ones who can’t resist giving “the London idiot answer” to any difficult question because they daren’t think for themselves. When Starmer got himself tangled up over the question of whether “only women have a cervix”, it was, Cummings says, because “he’s a dead player working off a script” – and the voters can smell that a mile off.”
Remainers are invariably fools, ESPECIALLY the posher ones. Absolutely right
The article also contains the brilliant revelation that the only reason Cummings and Boris prorogued parliament was to drive their opponents crazy (it worked), get them to talk about nothing else, until they eventually went so mad they provoked an election
I guess Cummings could be lying, but if it’s true it’s genius. It all went wrong for Boris when he lost this guy
Na, it is just that he like you, wants to rebut the idea that Leavers are generally thick, so it remains an obsession of his, like it is yours. It is OK @Leon, you aren't all thick. Obsessed about a trivial and pointless thing, yes, but not all of you are stupid. That feel better now?
He's got a point about some remainers not being able to think independently of the consensus liberal London view. It's the whole argument I've had loads of times with a few people on here about wages at the lower end, there's loads of studies saying it wasn't impacted by A10 migration but then we've had loads of real world evidence of wage rises for those people since Brexit because of low skilled labour shortages. It's like those same people who can't see beyond the phrase "follow the science" on the pandemic. Sometimes the consensus view is wrong and it's been difficult to get some more ardent remainers to see that, whether that's on wages for the lower skilled or on the correct post-vaccine pandemic response.
It's almost as if the consensus is there to exist and not be challenged, which we know is a recipe for disaster in the long term.
Yes. I think it’s essentially the religious module in the human brain, which is at work here, the bit of our mind wired for faith. Except god is replaced by secular atheist faith in this or that liberal piety. In this case, the secular faith is EU membership
The mad posh Remainers confronted by Brexit are like hardcore Catholics confronted by “heresy”. They cannot understand how or why anyone would believe this, Brexit is evil and wrong and can never be right.
You know, I get everything you’re saying. I can see what you mean about posh Remainers.
From my decidedly non-posh standpoint, I think what appals me most about Brexit is that Red Wall people have been promised that we will Take Back Control. And we will.
But I fear, and nothing has happened to disabuse me of this notion, in fact things like that Leeds leg of HS2 being cancelled reinforce it, is that Red Wallers have been persuaded to hand back control to a system that, more often than not, elects Conservative governments that, more often than not, screw the north, the people I love and the communities I am part of.
The EU, or EEC as it was then, handed over big bucks through coalfield regeneration funding, which did help. Now I might be wrong, but I suspect a Conservative government wouldn’t have done such a thing.
Yes, we’re free to spend our own money now how we want. The point being the country very often chooses to elect a government that chooses to spend a disproportionate amount in the South East and London.
I suspect that Boris is now expendable. He got the Red Wallers vote, he sang the siren song on levelling up. Will it last or will the Tory Party revert to type? I suspect the latter.
Yes, wages have gone up for some unskilled people. Will it last? Will they be eaten up by inflation?
Red Wallers were convinced, I think, to vote to hand control from one remote bureaucracy, the EU, that at least had their interests at heart to some extent, though no doubt many will disagree, and give that control to another remote bureaucracy, in Westminster, that very often doesn’t give a rat’s arse about the north and the Midlands.
That's the con trick that really pisses me off.
Maybe I’ll be proved wrong. But I think Boris being flushed away will see levelling up go with him and the party return to type. Belt-tightening, inflation, post-pandemic austerity. Red Wallers will be no better off.
If you're a right-winger and you're wanting the market to run free, Britannia Unleashed, all that kind of thing, then fair enough, my wailing above probably doesn't touch you one bit. But, from what I can gather, when people up here ticked Leave in 2016, that's not what they thought they were going to get.
I agree with much of this diagnosis
Just two points: I don’t believe the Tories will return to ‘austerity’ for quite a while (unless forced by circumstances like a looming default). Big debt is with us for the medium term, as the global economy recovers from Covid (ins’allah)
Also, it’s not true to say Brexit has replaced one remote bureaucracy with another. We are now properly democratic. If the Red Wallers are angry at the Tory government’s betrayal (and fair enough, it’s not looking good) they can have the electoral satisfaction of sweeping them out of office, in humiliating style. Not something they can do to the EU Commission
And that, for me, was pretty much the whole point of Brexit
They won't be daft enough to call it austerity, but a rose by any other name, and all that.
There is that potential electoral satisfaction, yes you're right. And I get what you're saying about the EU Commission. It's a perfectly valid point. For you Brexit's the greater good, we've reverted to the better system. Fine. I just disagree. For me the lesser evil, in terms of the north, was being in the EU. But that battle's been lost. Ah well.
I really don’t see what the EU ‘did for the north’. They just took British taxpayers’ money and randomly gave SOME back to poorer parts of the UK, but most of our money went to Eastern Europe. How is that a ‘good deal’ for the North of England?
And the idea that fat Eurocrats in Strasbourg brasseries spent their time worrying about ‘voters in Stoke’ is worthy of a cartoon
What they did for the north was spend money making things better. Money not spent by UK governments before or after.
I'm happy to agree that its not remotely an efficient way to allocate the funds. But it did happen - and now it isn't. We already have regions begging this government to replace the EU development money and being told no. The "towns fund" is a threadbare sticking plaster of a replacement.
This is just bollocks. The UK had a Labour government from 1997-2010 which spunked public money like King Dong on Cialis. Much of this was bukkake’d all over the happy upturned faces of northern voters. Anything done by the EU was a tiny vinegar stroke in comparison.
It confirms that Cummings is infuriatingly clever and cunning - if you are his enemy
This is superbly bang-on:
“Cummings thinks remainers are invariably fools, above all the better-educated ones, because they are incapable of accepting that they might be wrong. His shorthand for these people is Jolyons (after the remainer lawyer Jolyon Maugham) or, as he says of Keir Starmer, the ones who can’t resist giving “the London idiot answer” to any difficult question because they daren’t think for themselves. When Starmer got himself tangled up over the question of whether “only women have a cervix”, it was, Cummings says, because “he’s a dead player working off a script” – and the voters can smell that a mile off.”
Remainers are invariably fools, ESPECIALLY the posher ones. Absolutely right
The article also contains the brilliant revelation that the only reason Cummings and Boris prorogued parliament was to drive their opponents crazy (it worked), get them to talk about nothing else, until they eventually went so mad they provoked an election
I guess Cummings could be lying, but if it’s true it’s genius. It all went wrong for Boris when he lost this guy
Na, it is just that he like you, wants to rebut the idea that Leavers are generally thick, so it remains an obsession of his, like it is yours. It is OK @Leon, you aren't all thick. Obsessed about a trivial and pointless thing, yes, but not all of you are stupid. That feel better now?
He's got a point about some remainers not being able to think independently of the consensus liberal London view. It's the whole argument I've had loads of times with a few people on here about wages at the lower end, there's loads of studies saying it wasn't impacted by A10 migration but then we've had loads of real world evidence of wage rises for those people since Brexit because of low skilled labour shortages. It's like those same people who can't see beyond the phrase "follow the science" on the pandemic. Sometimes the consensus view is wrong and it's been difficult to get some more ardent remainers to see that, whether that's on wages for the lower skilled or on the correct post-vaccine pandemic response.
It's almost as if the consensus is there to exist and not be challenged, which we know is a recipe for disaster in the long term.
Yes. I think it’s essentially the religious module in the human brain, which is at work here, the bit of our mind wired for faith. Except god is replaced by secular atheist faith in this or that liberal piety. In this case, the secular faith is EU membership
The mad posh Remainers confronted by Brexit are like hardcore Catholics confronted by “heresy”. They cannot understand how or why anyone would believe this, Brexit is evil and wrong and can never be right.
You know, I get everything you’re saying. I can see what you mean about posh Remainers.
From my decidedly non-posh standpoint, I think what appals me most about Brexit is that Red Wall people have been promised that we will Take Back Control. And we will.
But I fear, and nothing has happened to disabuse me of this notion, in fact things like that Leeds leg of HS2 being cancelled reinforce it, is that Red Wallers have been persuaded to hand back control to a system that, more often than not, elects Conservative governments that, more often than not, screw the north, the people I love and the communities I am part of.
The EU, or EEC as it was then, handed over big bucks through coalfield regeneration funding, which did help. Now I might be wrong, but I suspect a Conservative government wouldn’t have done such a thing.
Yes, we’re free to spend our own money now how we want. The point being the country very often chooses to elect a government that chooses to spend a disproportionate amount in the South East and London.
I suspect that Boris is now expendable. He got the Red Wallers vote, he sang the siren song on levelling up. Will it last or will the Tory Party revert to type? I suspect the latter.
Yes, wages have gone up for some unskilled people. Will it last? Will they be eaten up by inflation?
Red Wallers were convinced, I think, to vote to hand control from one remote bureaucracy, the EU, that at least had their interests at heart to some extent, though no doubt many will disagree, and give that control to another remote bureaucracy, in Westminster, that very often doesn’t give a rat’s arse about the north and the Midlands.
That's the con trick that really pisses me off.
Maybe I’ll be proved wrong. But I think Boris being flushed away will see levelling up go with him and the party return to type. Belt-tightening, inflation, post-pandemic austerity. Red Wallers will be no better off.
If you're a right-winger and you're wanting the market to run free, Britannia Unleashed, all that kind of thing, then fair enough, my wailing above probably doesn't touch you one bit. But, from what I can gather, when people up here ticked Leave in 2016, that's not what they thought they were going to get.
Edit: New Labour did help. Yes, they could have done more. Yes, they took us for granted. I think they've learned from that mistake.
Actually, I think the issue is slightly (although not much) different.
The Conservative Party is dependent on older voters: and its policy choices (such as raising NI over income tax) seem to be more about protecting them, than maximising employment (and therefore wages).
Agreed, its not a north/south thing but young/old or asset holders/future income thing that are the defining divides of our politics.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Erm, isn't Singapore a democracy? Even if the same side always wins.
Not as we know it.....
Ranks below Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in SE Asia:
It is also far richer than any of those, indeed it is one of the richest countries on the planet
And it has zero crime
I’ve said this before on PB: 90% of people, if offered a choice between life in rich, crime-free, not-very-democratic Singapore, or life in a less rich, more dangerous, properly democratic alternative, would choose Singapore
Which is why Singapore is a challenge to liberal democracies (and liberalism) and why democracy is entirely doomed, long term. The super-computers will be the Singapore government on steroids. Cold, calculating, but phenomenally efficient at producing results
It's a city state. Not really an option for most of the world.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
Did it ever change? It well known that bar in Westminster and pubs around there do roaring trades in normal times. But with them being closed, seems like they just turned the office into the boozer.
FPT TimT Posts: 5,068 10:51AM Malmesbury said: » show previous quotes I find it interesting that as religion as such fades in the population, the instincts and habits we associate with religion have been re-purposed.
Cookie - sounds like someone has read Jonathan Haidt. I always love this video from him
Are we past the days of having peers as PMs, in the sense of it being even legally possible? Though Lord Home got himself a safe seat as a MP pdq if I recall the recent discussion here. I'm sure someone could be persuaded to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds if need be, in a nice safe seat.
Nothing that legally says the PM cannot be in the Lords - although I imagine that there would be no such thing as a safe seat for a by-election these days, if a party tried to force one in such circumstances.
Halifax turned down PMship in 1940 on account of being a Lord
Is that so? I'd always assumed Labour wouldn't support him.
I read a couple of articles that had it as his for taking, but bottled it. He didn’t fancy being a war leader. Didn’t think we could win. Didn’t want to fight. The recent film of Churchill portrayed it like this? Is this revisionist history? It’s been revised and is more accurate?
Labour wanted Halifax and that was the general consensus of the Commons. The King wanted Halifax and was a bit upset when Halifax raised the objection of being a peer and so not able to operate effectively in the House.
That’s where I disagree with you Rottenborough. I can’t do it because I am a Lord buries the truth and distorts true history which needs to be revised, therefore your favourite history books on your shelf you always thought was history are lying to you and you need to get new ones. The truth being “havn’t slept for a week thinking I have to be war PM, I think we should make deal with Germans anyway.”
Halifax accepted that there was no constitutional bar on him being PM in the Lords; he turned the job down primarily because he didn't want to do it and recognised that Churchill would overshadow him, whatever their official statuses.
By 1940, it wasn't even accepted that a PM couldn't sit in the Lords. It was only 38 years then since it had last happened (the equivalent of 1984 from now), and Curzon had been seriously considered as a PM candidate in the early 1920s.
While it was certainly seen as unhelpful that a PM might sit in a House where the main opposition had barely any representation, it wasn't an absolute bar.
In any case, there were provisions that could have been made to ease the difficulty. One was to amend the HoC standing orders, to allow a non-MP PM to be able to address MPs from within the chamber; IIRC, another would have been for the king to put Halifax's peerage into abeyance.
Either way, you don't lose a world war for a point of minor constitutional principle which wasn't even convention at that stage. Had Halifax been the MP and Churchill the peer (far from impossible), it's very likely that the latter would still have become PM.
Awesome post.
Opening bit
“ Halifax accepted that there was no constitutional bar on him being PM in the Lords; he turned the job down primarily because he didn't want to do it and recognised that Churchill would overshadow him, whatever their official statuses. “.
Absolutely spot on as the history as I know it. But does raise questions as, not without skills and merit was Halifax nonetheless not leadership material crucially in his own mind? And how history books would wrongly copy each other as the reason for the decision as something else?
One of the weaknesses of history books and historians is how so much of it just copies each other? Especially now in the internet age, it’s not so many sources as it appears if all says same thing with so few alternative perspectives.
Indeed - going back to primary sources often reveals interesting things.
A very good recent example was "Shattered Sword: The Untold Story of the Battle of Midway" which pointed out that much of the layers of scholarship on the battle was wrong. Among other things, the Japanese carriers had physical limitations which meant that various things couldn't be true. And a major Japanese source had been proved to be less than accurate y historians in Japan....
From my reading of the period, Halifax saw himself as the wrong man to be PM - in a World War*. I think he would have jumped at the job, if it had been a matter of managing the continuing recovery of the economy, dealing with social issues and a bit of diplomacy.
*I seem to recall a story, that one of the pacifist types in the Labour party asked Atlee why he was serving under that "ghastly warmonger and warlover, Churchill?". Atlee is supposed to have replied that the country needed a warmonger.
I think what you have added to what David posted nails it now.
“ Halifax accepted that there was no constitutional bar on him being PM in the Lords; he turned the job down primarily because he didn't want to do it and recognised that Churchill would overshadow him, whatever their official statuses. “.
+
“ Halifax saw himself as the wrong man to be PM in a war “
= pretty much the true history of what happened. 👍🏻
Though still probably some questions around prevalence of “sign a truce rather than attempt a war” feeling? Like you said, go back to original sources, that would be a view of it from the other side of the war, without knowing that we won, without full or any awareness of the horrors of the concentration camps, and likely so many other ways where the view would be different, than the view of the same spot in history post war.
Halifax hated Hitler. His position *before* the fall of France was that no peace was possible with Germany, if Hitler was still in charge. We know this because he said this (and it was documented as being said) to an intermediary* with the German government.
It was after the French defeat that he suggested the old WWI plan of an armistice with Germany if the BEF was pushed out of France and France fell.
Basically - "Shit, the Germans have won. What do we do now?"
*Swedish chap, IIRC.
Oh we are carrying on over here. Nice.
So the next question would be, were we all that concerned with Germans Partying victory in Paris… in 1871? Historically we sided with other people against the French. The rise of German Empire in the Second Reich (I understand is German for rich - the Holy Roman Empire being the first rich) complicates things leaves Britain uncertain about a German Empire controlling or dominating mainland Europe in upstart crow of an Empire to rival our own? That is then thinking as we go into First World War, and into the 20th century… yet, there is still all these books and TV programmes about how close UK upper classes were to the Germans in the thirties? You see what I mean?
The continental policy of the UK was to try and prevent one power taking over the whole thing. If they did, they could then amass enough naval power to overwhelm us.
Until 1870, that was France. Bismarck was very careful to manoeuvre France into declaring war in 1870 - which meant we stayed neutral. Because he was about to construct a bigger power than France and wanted no interruptions.
WWI was largely about this, for the UK.
After WWI, many people believed in Anything But That, Ever Again. This was taken by many to mean friendship with Germany. Since it was believed that the rhetoric in the run up to WWI had been part of the problem....
The rise of Hitler then split politics into four groups - Hitler = War (Churchill etc), Appeasement, The Pacifists No Matter What* and a small group who actually like Hitler.
*Who believed in Disarmament as a cure for everything.
Wasn't Bismarck's dictum 'always be in the 3 of 5', which he then himself breached?
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
I am bemused. That seems the likeliest explanation but I don't see how it spread so quickily in less than 3 years. Adults just don't behave like this FFS.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
We are waiting for something to happen. What it is (BJ out) is inevitable. The only questions are - When? and How much money we can make on it?
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Erm, isn't Singapore a democracy? Even if the same side always wins.
Not as we know it.....
Ranks below Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in SE Asia:
It is also far richer than any of those, indeed it is one of the richest countries on the planet
And it has zero crime
I’ve said this before on PB: 90% of people, if offered a choice between life in rich, crime-free, not-very-democratic Singapore, or life in a less rich, more dangerous, properly democratic alternative, would choose Singapore
Which is why Singapore is a challenge to liberal democracies (and liberalism) and why democracy is entirely doomed, long term. The super-computers will be the Singapore government on steroids. Cold, calculating, but phenomenally efficient at producing results
Have you lived in Singapore, or just stayed in the nice hotels in the carefully manicured centre?
If you haven't already, next time you're there take the MRT on the NS line to Jurong East and get a view of the "real" Singapore.
Yes, I’ve seen the ‘real’ Singapore. If by that you mean the dense housing for guest workers etc
But this is no more the ‘real’ Singapore than Raffles. The average Singaporean lives in a fairly small apartment, sure, but it isn’t Stalinist. They also have extremely good schools. Excellent healthcare. Entirely crime free streets. Incredible public transport. Perpetual economic growth. And fucking great food
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
I suspect professional politicians elected every 4 or 5 years or so will be seen as a bit of a joke in the future, if we have a future, and certainly not as the standard of "democracy".
Probably some combination of machines, sortition and referenda will be the successor. But God knows how the transition would be managed, given that the professional politicians would have to vote for their own abolition.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
On top of all the fact of all these parties, there seems to be a hell of a lot of people who have left #10 over the past year or so. Given all these seem to do is having parties, makes you wonder why they are all jumping ship.
A lot of these people were hired up on short term contracts to deal with Covid-19 and Brexit.
Kate Josephs is Chief Executive of Sheffield City Council but a lot of others have gone to high paying jobs in the private sector.
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
What?
It's a highly undesirable habit, this blanket strawmanning of groups of - crucially - unspecified posters like in this case "the defenders of Johnson." Who are they? Where are they defending him? Links pls.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
We are waiting for something to happen. What it is (BJ out) is inevitable. The only questions are - When? and How much money we can make on it?
Well the next leader has been decided on here this afternoon - and it was so obvious we should have realised sooner. Now let’s get on Lord Frost before punters reading this get on and start bringing it down to a disappointing 250-1
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
I am bemused. That seems the likeliest explanation but I don't see how it spread so quickily in less than 3 years. Adults just don't behave like this FFS.
It seems pretty clear - from various first hand reports - that number ten under Johnson has turned into the equivalent of what happens if you leave your teenage son in charge of the house for a week.
I find it very hard to believe that it was like that under the austere Theresa.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
On top of all the fact of all these parties, there seems to be a hell of a lot of people who have left #10 over the past year or so. Given all these seem to do is having parties, makes you wonder why they are all jumping ship.
A lot of these people were hired up on short term contracts to deal with Covid-19 and Brexit.
Kate Josephs is Chief Executive of Sheffield City Council but a lot of others have gone to high paying jobs in the private sector.
Sky say earning £200,000 pa
No reward for failure....
And at the same time, dashboard guy, who got ontop of the absolute disaster of data collection across the NHS, has also gone back to his day job. A massive loss there,. They should have been willing to pay him a boat load to head up a team to oversee revolutionizing data collection and processing across the public sector. Same as when nudge unit left working in #10. These are people who have actually got things done.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
What?
It's a highly undesirable habit, this blanket strawmanning of groups of - crucially - unspecified posters like in this case "the defenders of Johnson." Who are they? Where are they defending him? Links pls.
I thought we were down to 1 and the tank won't start?
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
We are waiting for something to happen. What it is (BJ out) is inevitable. The only questions are - When? and How much money we can make on it?
Well the next leader has been decided on here this afternoon - and it was so obvious we should have realised sooner. Now let’s get on Lord Frost before punters reading this get on and start bringing it down to a disappointing 250-1
Halifax was a bit of a red herring on Frost's position, being an hereditary in 1940. Frosty has an escape route under the 2014 Act whereby he can de Lord himself and is then expressly allowed to stand for the Commons again, so he could present his embarrassment as being purely temporary, unlike Halifax.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
On top of all the fact of all these parties, there seems to be a hell of a lot of people who have left #10 over the past year or so. Given all these seem to do is having parties, makes you wonder why they are all jumping ship.
A lot of these people were hired up on short term contracts to deal with Covid-19 and Brexit.
Kate Josephs is Chief Executive of Sheffield City Council but a lot of others have gone to high paying jobs in the private sector.
Sky say earning £200,000 pa
Poor woman, how can anyone survive on that, particularly living in London?
No wonder she decided to leave and become Chief Executive of the council of the the greatest city in the world.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
Hmmm: I went in and cleaned up the grammar to see if it helped:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people. I think it's a good idea to have a system where people can make decisions based on their own interests. I think it's a good idea to have a system where people can make decisions based on their own interests."
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
Yes, no chance. No chance of Ruthie either, unfortunately.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Erm, isn't Singapore a democracy? Even if the same side always wins.
Not as we know it.....
Ranks below Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in SE Asia:
It is also far richer than any of those, indeed it is one of the richest countries on the planet
And it has zero crime
I’ve said this before on PB: 90% of people, if offered a choice between life in rich, crime-free, not-very-democratic Singapore, or life in a less rich, more dangerous, properly democratic alternative, would choose Singapore
Which is why Singapore is a challenge to liberal democracies (and liberalism) and why democracy is entirely doomed, long term. The super-computers will be the Singapore government on steroids. Cold, calculating, but phenomenally efficient at producing results
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
Or perhaps there was secret intelligence within no 10 confirming that the Belarussian president was correct all along, and that vodka is the best cure for covid.
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
I am bemused. That seems the likeliest explanation but I don't see how it spread so quickily in less than 3 years. Adults just don't behave like this FFS.
It seems pretty clear - from various first hand reports - that number ten under Johnson has turned into the equivalent of what happens if you leave your teenage son in charge of the house for a week.
I find it very hard to believe that it was like that under the austere Theresa.
So if I left my children in charge of the house, on my return the subdued decor would have been replaced by colourful, ostentatious and ludicrously expensive curtains, carpets and wallpaper.
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
I left the Civil Service after 15 years in 2017 and the drinking culture was widespread then, and had been for years. This really isnt anything new or much of a suprise to be honest. Under Blair we used to drink in the office on friday afternoons in the MOJ
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
I am bemused. That seems the likeliest explanation but I don't see how it spread so quickily in less than 3 years. Adults just don't behave like this FFS.
It seems pretty clear - from various first hand reports - that number ten under Johnson has turned into the equivalent of what happens if you leave your teenage son in charge of the house for a week.
I find it very hard to believe that it was like that under the austere Theresa.
It is the sheer studenty incompetence of it. Grown ups arrange for those nice chaps at BB&R to send some nice plain cardboard boxes round, in advance
Panic is over isn't it, people can see that omicron is 'nothing to worry about' and besides we've done christmas, so if you get it now its a week off/isolating/wfh...
It does feel that way. Certainly my fear of the virus is less these days. In the early days of the pandemic I actually used to hold my breath if I got near anybody. Now as we approach the end of it I still try and keep my distance but there's none of that. I breath normally.
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
I left the Civil Service after 15 years in 2017 and the drinking culture was widespread then, and had been for years. This really isnt anything new or much of a suprise to be honest. Under Blair we used to drink in the office on friday afternoons in the MOJ
Ah, a dispatch from the front line, that is v interesting. Was this quite open?
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
Some of GPT3 output is very good, much improved on GPT2.
I asked it for a poem titled "I would rather die"....
I would rather die than live a life that is less than true. I would rather die than be a voice in the crowd. I would rather die than never be heard at all. I would rather die to be the one who stands apart, who dares to take a stand, who dares to say, this is what I think and this is what I feel. But I hope that I can find another way Because I don't want to die today. I want to live a long and happy life And when its time for me to go, well then let me go, but not today. Not just yet Not now.
But it ain't running the government...
This is where I get quite funny about the terms AI and ML. For me AI, is computer which understands and can explain what they are doing and why, which none of these massive neural network systems can do. There is no real concept of if what they are outputting makes any "sense" or not.
I don't think I would describe GPT-x as a pattern matcher, it is better described as a transformer (not in the Hollywood Michael Bay way).
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
Yes, no chance. No chance of Ruthie either, unfortunately.
Given the length and uncertainty of that process (imagine if such a candidate had renounced their peerage for ultra-safe, er, North Shropshire!), and presumption that any working peer has already chosen once to accept patronage rather going through it, I'd say the chances are pretty remote.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
Yes, no chance. No chance of Ruthie either, unfortunately.
Given the length and uncertainty of that process (imagine if such a candidate had renounced their peerage for ultra-safe, er, North Shropshire!), and presumption that any working peer has already chosen once to accept patronage rather going through it, I'd say the chances are pretty remote.
Lord Frost becomes Tory leader & Prime Minister in the middle July, the day after Parliament goes into recess for two months.
Some of GPT3 output is very good, much improved on GPT2.
I asked it for a poem titled "I would rather die"....
I would rather die than live a life that is less than true. I would rather die than be a voice in the crowd. I would rather die than never be heard at all. I would rather die to be the one who stands apart, who dares to take a stand, who dares to say, this is what I think and this is what I feel. But I hope that I can find another way Because I don't want to die today. I want to live a long and happy life And when its time for me to go, well then let me go, but not today. Not just yet Not now.
But it ain't running the government...
That is really quite good. In a “written by a talented 14 year old” kind of way. Clever use of slightly random rhyme
GPT5 will be able to write like Byron
It is quite scary. Anyone who isn’t scared by AI hasn’t read enough about it
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
...
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Autocomplete works by pattern matching.
I'm not a techie but it seems most disappointing that all this expensive research is simply reproducing what we get already from our human politicians.
It confirms that Cummings is infuriatingly clever and cunning - if you are his enemy
This is superbly bang-on:
“Cummings thinks remainers are invariably fools, above all the better-educated ones, because they are incapable of accepting that they might be wrong. His shorthand for these people is Jolyons (after the remainer lawyer Jolyon Maugham) or, as he says of Keir Starmer, the ones who can’t resist giving “the London idiot answer” to any difficult question because they daren’t think for themselves. When Starmer got himself tangled up over the question of whether “only women have a cervix”, it was, Cummings says, because “he’s a dead player working off a script” – and the voters can smell that a mile off.”
Remainers are invariably fools, ESPECIALLY the posher ones. Absolutely right
The article also contains the brilliant revelation that the only reason Cummings and Boris prorogued parliament was to drive their opponents crazy (it worked), get them to talk about nothing else, until they eventually went so mad they provoked an election
I guess Cummings could be lying, but if it’s true it’s genius. It all went wrong for Boris when he lost this guy
Na, it is just that he like you, wants to rebut the idea that Leavers are generally thick, so it remains an obsession of his, like it is yours. It is OK @Leon, you aren't all thick. Obsessed about a trivial and pointless thing, yes, but not all of you are stupid. That feel better now?
He's got a point about some remainers not being able to think independently of the consensus liberal London view. It's the whole argument I've had loads of times with a few people on here about wages at the lower end, there's loads of studies saying it wasn't impacted by A10 migration but then we've had loads of real world evidence of wage rises for those people since Brexit because of low skilled labour shortages. It's like those same people who can't see beyond the phrase "follow the science" on the pandemic. Sometimes the consensus view is wrong and it's been difficult to get some more ardent remainers to see that, whether that's on wages for the lower skilled or on the correct post-vaccine pandemic response.
It's almost as if the consensus is there to exist and not be challenged, which we know is a recipe for disaster in the long term.
Yes. I think it’s essentially the religious module in the human brain, which is at work here, the bit of our mind wired for faith. Except god is replaced by secular atheist faith in this or that liberal piety. In this case, the secular faith is EU membership
The mad posh Remainers confronted by Brexit are like hardcore Catholics confronted by “heresy”. They cannot understand how or why anyone would believe this, Brexit is evil and wrong and can never be right.
You know, I get everything you’re saying. I can see what you mean about posh Remainers.
From my decidedly non-posh standpoint, I think what appals me most about Brexit is that Red Wall people have been promised that we will Take Back Control. And we will.
But I fear, and nothing has happened to disabuse me of this notion, in fact things like that Leeds leg of HS2 being cancelled reinforce it, is that Red Wallers have been persuaded to hand back control to a system that, more often than not, elects Conservative governments that, more often than not, screw the north, the people I love and the communities I am part of.
The EU, or EEC as it was then, handed over big bucks through coalfield regeneration funding, which did help. Now I might be wrong, but I suspect a Conservative government wouldn’t have done such a thing.
Yes, we’re free to spend our own money now how we want. The point being the country very often chooses to elect a government that chooses to spend a disproportionate amount in the South East and London.
I suspect that Boris is now expendable. He got the Red Wallers vote, he sang the siren song on levelling up. Will it last or will the Tory Party revert to type? I suspect the latter.
Yes, wages have gone up for some unskilled people. Will it last? Will they be eaten up by inflation?
Red Wallers were convinced, I think, to vote to hand control from one remote bureaucracy, the EU, that at least had their interests at heart to some extent, though no doubt many will disagree, and give that control to another remote bureaucracy, in Westminster, that very often doesn’t give a rat’s arse about the north and the Midlands.
That's the con trick that really pisses me off.
Maybe I’ll be proved wrong. But I think Boris being flushed away will see levelling up go with him and the party return to type. Belt-tightening, inflation, post-pandemic austerity. Red Wallers will be no better off.
If you're a right-winger and you're wanting the market to run free, Britannia Unleashed, all that kind of thing, then fair enough, my wailing above probably doesn't touch you one bit. But, from what I can gather, when people up here ticked Leave in 2016, that's not what they thought they were going to get.
I agree with much of this diagnosis
Just two points: I don’t believe the Tories will return to ‘austerity’ for quite a while (unless forced by circumstances like a looming default). Big debt is with us for the medium term, as the global economy recovers from Covid (ins’allah)
Also, it’s not true to say Brexit has replaced one remote bureaucracy with another. We are now properly democratic. If the Red Wallers are angry at the Tory government’s betrayal (and fair enough, it’s not looking good) they can have the electoral satisfaction of sweeping them out of office, in humiliating style. Not something they can do to the EU Commission
And that, for me, was pretty much the whole point of Brexit
They won't be daft enough to call it austerity, but a rose by any other name, and all that.
There is that potential electoral satisfaction, yes you're right. And I get what you're saying about the EU Commission. It's a perfectly valid point. For you Brexit's the greater good, we've reverted to the better system. Fine. I just disagree. For me the lesser evil, in terms of the north, was being in the EU. But that battle's been lost. Ah well.
I really don’t see what the EU ‘did for the north’. They just took British taxpayers’ money and randomly gave SOME back to poorer parts of the UK, but most of our money went to Eastern Europe. How is that a ‘good deal’ for the North of England?
And the idea that fat Eurocrats in Strasbourg brasseries spent their time worrying about ‘voters in Stoke’ is worthy of a cartoon
What they did for the north was spend money making things better. Money not spent by UK governments before or after.
I'm happy to agree that its not remotely an efficient way to allocate the funds. But it did happen - and now it isn't. We already have regions begging this government to replace the EU development money and being told no. The "towns fund" is a threadbare sticking plaster of a replacement.
This is just bollocks. The UK had a Labour government from 1997-2010 which spunked public money like King Dong on Cialis. Much of this was bukkake’d all over the happy upturned faces of northern voters. Anything done by the EU was a tiny vinegar stroke in comparison.
The argument is unsound, to put it politely
At the time you may have been under the influence of expensive mind-bending narcotics, but during the 1980s and 90s those of us who remained compos mentis noted that EU social fund money was hosed all over the former industrial regions of England, Scotland and Wales. This took the form of incentives to new technology industries, which it is true all upped sticks and left Eastwards on the accession of the former Soviet countries, and finance for infrastructure projects. It was our fault that we invested this money on cobblestones for the High Street instead of building our own Millau Viaducts.
On Monday I asked if Kate Josephs had attended any parties at Downing Street at any point when restrictions were in place. It was denied. I never thought to ask about the Cabinet Office https://twitter.com/katejosephs/status/1482010169693413383
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Maybe the DT are so keen to see the return of their top columnist that they are helping him through the window.
Surely Boris's value as a columnist is in tatters. His whole shtick was based upon 'I'm a lad, cut through the crap and have better solutions than all the stuffed shirts who run things.' Who would read his pontifications now with anything other than a rasping cackle or a disillusioned sigh?
Former Scottish Tory MSP Adam Tomkins: "What is to stop all 31 Scottish Conservative MSPs resigning from the Conservative Party and saying they have a new whip, and it's called the liberal unionist whip? What's to stop that? That could happen overnight." https://twitter.com/alistairkgrant/status/1481898099421462533
The last two, unless there is a coronation, will be Rishi and Truss/ Hunt
Wasn't Hunt's base last time all the people Boris subsequently kicked out for failing to back Brexit sufficiently vigorously? He seems the last prominent one left from the Rudd-Gauke wing of the party - not just on Brexit.. basically pragmatists/wets/centrists who cba with the culture wars but brushed up OK for fundraising dinners in the Home Counties.
I think there's much to be said for that lot coming back and shoring up traditional Tory lands (because the Red Wall is going to be very tricky to hold on to as part of the coalition), but I'd be surprised if the numbers are there in the current parliamentary party to get him in the last two?
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Maybe the DT are so keen to see the return of their top columnist that they are helping him through the window.
Surely Boris's value as a columnist is in tatters. His whole shtick was based upon 'I'm a lad, cut through the crap and have better solutions than all the stuffed shirts who run things.' Who would read his pontifications now with anything other than a rasping cackle or a disillusioned sigh?
I am not sure the morals, consistency and good ideas come into the rational why people read certain columnists. People read for the entertainment value.
I am not sure anybody read Boris column thinking I am going to get Big Dom levels of detail into the inner working of cutting edge machine learning and how it can be used to better government policy. More, some people enjoyed his amusing quips about current affairs.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Even putting to one side the major issues with the hypocrisy over Covid laws, it now sounds as though they had a problem with drinking culture regardless.
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
Yes, no chance. No chance of Ruthie either, unfortunately.
Given the length and uncertainty of that process (imagine if such a candidate had renounced their peerage for ultra-safe, er, North Shropshire!), and presumption that any working peer has already chosen once to accept patronage rather going through it, I'd say the chances are pretty remote.
Lord Frost becomes Tory leader & Prime Minister in the middle July, the day after Parliament goes into recess for two months.
He's got two months to get elected.
A by-election in Uxbridge between ex-Lord Frost for con and John Bercow for lab would be entertaining.
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
Yes, no chance. No chance of Ruthie either, unfortunately.
Given the length and uncertainty of that process (imagine if such a candidate had renounced their peerage for ultra-safe, er, North Shropshire!), and presumption that any working peer has already chosen once to accept patronage rather going through it, I'd say the chances are pretty remote.
Lord Frost becomes Tory leader & Prime Minister in the middle July, the day after Parliament goes into recess for two months.
He's got two months to get elected.
So the rest of us have just shy of two months to vacate the country.
Very soon the same commentators who told you that Johnson was a political genius are going to tell you that Truss is a reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher. Every word they write will be vacuous bollocks.
Former Scottish Tory MSP Adam Tomkins: "What is to stop all 31 Scottish Conservative MSPs resigning from the Conservative Party and saying they have a new whip, and it's called the liberal unionist whip? What's to stop that? That could happen overnight." https://twitter.com/alistairkgrant/status/1481898099421462533
I see that was prompted by a Scotsperson piece headlined "Downing Street garden party: Former party figure calls existence of Scottish Conservatives 'threat to union'" - I assume because they are part of the same party as Mr J, Mr R-M etc. But it's paywalled so I can't read it to find out who. I assume Prof Tomkins.
It confirms that Cummings is infuriatingly clever and cunning - if you are his enemy
This is superbly bang-on:
“Cummings thinks remainers are invariably fools, above all the better-educated ones, because they are incapable of accepting that they might be wrong. His shorthand for these people is Jolyons (after the remainer lawyer Jolyon Maugham) or, as he says of Keir Starmer, the ones who can’t resist giving “the London idiot answer” to any difficult question because they daren’t think for themselves. When Starmer got himself tangled up over the question of whether “only women have a cervix”, it was, Cummings says, because “he’s a dead player working off a script” – and the voters can smell that a mile off.”
Remainers are invariably fools, ESPECIALLY the posher ones. Absolutely right
The article also contains the brilliant revelation that the only reason Cummings and Boris prorogued parliament was to drive their opponents crazy (it worked), get them to talk about nothing else, until they eventually went so mad they provoked an election
I guess Cummings could be lying, but if it’s true it’s genius. It all went wrong for Boris when he lost this guy
Na, it is just that he like you, wants to rebut the idea that Leavers are generally thick, so it remains an obsession of his, like it is yours. It is OK @Leon, you aren't all thick. Obsessed about a trivial and pointless thing, yes, but not all of you are stupid. That feel better now?
He's got a point about some remainers not being able to think independently of the consensus liberal London view. It's the whole argument I've had loads of times with a few people on here about wages at the lower end, there's loads of studies saying it wasn't impacted by A10 migration but then we've had loads of real world evidence of wage rises for those people since Brexit because of low skilled labour shortages. It's like those same people who can't see beyond the phrase "follow the science" on the pandemic. Sometimes the consensus view is wrong and it's been difficult to get some more ardent remainers to see that, whether that's on wages for the lower skilled or on the correct post-vaccine pandemic response.
It's almost as if the consensus is there to exist and not be challenged, which we know is a recipe for disaster in the long term.
Yes. I think it’s essentially the religious module in the human brain, which is at work here, the bit of our mind wired for faith. Except god is replaced by secular atheist faith in this or that liberal piety. In this case, the secular faith is EU membership
The mad posh Remainers confronted by Brexit are like hardcore Catholics confronted by “heresy”. They cannot understand how or why anyone would believe this, Brexit is evil and wrong and can never be right.
You know, I get everything you’re saying. I can see what you mean about posh Remainers.
From my decidedly non-posh standpoint, I think what appals me most about Brexit is that Red Wall people have been promised that we will Take Back Control. And we will.
But I fear, and nothing has happened to disabuse me of this notion, in fact things like that Leeds leg of HS2 being cancelled reinforce it, is that Red Wallers have been persuaded to hand back control to a system that, more often than not, elects Conservative governments that, more often than not, screw the north, the people I love and the communities I am part of.
The EU, or EEC as it was then, handed over big bucks through coalfield regeneration funding, which did help. Now I might be wrong, but I suspect a Conservative government wouldn’t have done such a thing.
Yes, we’re free to spend our own money now how we want. The point being the country very often chooses to elect a government that chooses to spend a disproportionate amount in the South East and London.
I suspect that Boris is now expendable. He got the Red Wallers vote, he sang the siren song on levelling up. Will it last or will the Tory Party revert to type? I suspect the latter.
Yes, wages have gone up for some unskilled people. Will it last? Will they be eaten up by inflation?
Red Wallers were convinced, I think, to vote to hand control from one remote bureaucracy, the EU, that at least had their interests at heart to some extent, though no doubt many will disagree, and give that control to another remote bureaucracy, in Westminster, that very often doesn’t give a rat’s arse about the north and the Midlands.
That's the con trick that really pisses me off.
Maybe I’ll be proved wrong. But I think Boris being flushed away will see levelling up go with him and the party return to type. Belt-tightening, inflation, post-pandemic austerity. Red Wallers will be no better off.
If you're a right-winger and you're wanting the market to run free, Britannia Unleashed, all that kind of thing, then fair enough, my wailing above probably doesn't touch you one bit. But, from what I can gather, when people up here ticked Leave in 2016, that's not what they thought they were going to get.
I agree with much of this diagnosis
Just two points: I don’t believe the Tories will return to ‘austerity’ for quite a while (unless forced by circumstances like a looming default). Big debt is with us for the medium term, as the global economy recovers from Covid (ins’allah)
Also, it’s not true to say Brexit has replaced one remote bureaucracy with another. We are now properly democratic. If the Red Wallers are angry at the Tory government’s betrayal (and fair enough, it’s not looking good) they can have the electoral satisfaction of sweeping them out of office, in humiliating style. Not something they can do to the EU Commission
And that, for me, was pretty much the whole point of Brexit
They won't be daft enough to call it austerity, but a rose by any other name, and all that.
There is that potential electoral satisfaction, yes you're right. And I get what you're saying about the EU Commission. It's a perfectly valid point. For you Brexit's the greater good, we've reverted to the better system. Fine. I just disagree. For me the lesser evil, in terms of the north, was being in the EU. But that battle's been lost. Ah well.
I really don’t see what the EU ‘did for the north’. They just took British taxpayers’ money and randomly gave SOME back to poorer parts of the UK, but most of our money went to Eastern Europe. How is that a ‘good deal’ for the North of England?
And the idea that fat Eurocrats in Strasbourg brasseries spent their time worrying about ‘voters in Stoke’ is worthy of a cartoon
What they did for the north was spend money making things better. Money not spent by UK governments before or after.
I'm happy to agree that its not remotely an efficient way to allocate the funds. But it did happen - and now it isn't. We already have regions begging this government to replace the EU development money and being told no. The "towns fund" is a threadbare sticking plaster of a replacement.
This is just bollocks. The UK had a Labour government from 1997-2010 which spunked public money like King Dong on Cialis. Much of this was bukkake’d all over the happy upturned faces of northern voters. Anything done by the EU was a tiny vinegar stroke in comparison.
The argument is unsound, to put it politely
At the time you may have been under the influence of expensive mind-bending narcotics, but during the 1980s and 90s those of us who remained compos mentis noted that EU social fund money was hosed all over the former industrial regions of England, Scotland and Wales. This took the form of incentives to new technology industries, which it is true all upped sticks and left Eastwards on the accession of the former Soviet countries, and finance for infrastructure projects. It was our fault that we invested this money on cobblestones for the High Street instead of building our own Millau Viaducts.
ISTR Liverpool City Council had an explicit objective to continue to qualify for objective 1 funding - that is, to continue to be poor enough. EU funding created perverse incentives which may have led to a lot of public spending but didn't result in Liverpool becoming less poor.
At the moment it looks pretty certain that the final 3 in the MPs vote will be Sunak, Truss and Hunt.
Hunt's support from what's left of the sane part of the parliamentary party is probably enough to get him to the final two, where he'll lose in the members' vote. So the interesting bit is whether Steve Baker and his disciplined band of ultras will want Sunak or Truss. My guess is that they'll be suspicious of both, but more so of Truss.
It is entirely possible, surely, that they elevate one of their own. And that isn't necessarily a cabinet minister.
In truth, there aren't many serious contenders for an immediate post-Johnson Conservative Party leadership election.
In the absence of a Heseltine-type figure, you are looking at the three main offices of state so Sunak, Truss and Patel (all five letter surnames but that was true of Blair, Brown and of course Major as well as Heath).
The more intriguing question is what would a future Sunak or Truss Cabinet look like? Who would be in line for promotion or demotion if the current Chancellor or Foreign State successfully navigated the sea of electoral hazard and prevailed?
You'd imagine the winner would want his/her main opponent in a senior position because you keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Who would be Sunak's CoE for example - Trevelyan or Zahawi? I can't see Javid wanting the job again and the likes of Raab and Gove are already looking like yesterday's news.
Could Ben Wallace move to the Foreign Office in a Truss-led Government?
That's the thing about politics - the unexpected opportunity for advancement - could we see Michelle Donelan for example move up the Ministerial order somewhat?
Very soon the same commentators who told you that Johnson was a political genius are going to tell you that Truss is a reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher. Every word they write will be vacuous bollocks.
The one thing Big Dom gets right and provable from the COVID coverage, the political media know the square root of f##k all about anything but gossip and scandal within Westminster.
Sky have just said she is a senior civil servant and the concern now is that the drinks culture is widespread across the civil service
As I suggested earlier I expect changes to employment rules to follow relating to drinking in the workplace
It sounds like the clown has transported workplace culture inside government straight back to the early 1980s?
I am bemused. That seems the likeliest explanation but I don't see how it spread so quickily in less than 3 years. Adults just don't behave like this FFS.
It seems pretty clear - from various first hand reports - that number ten under Johnson has turned into the equivalent of what happens if you leave your teenage son in charge of the house for a week.
I find it very hard to believe that it was like that under the austere Theresa.
It is the sheer studenty incompetence of it. Grown ups arrange for those nice chaps at BB&R to send some nice plain cardboard boxes round, in advance
Indeed. 1991, when at University, I phoned up the local Oddbins, got a quote, and told the other students on my floor of the hall, that if we order over £100 of booze, jointly, a nice man would deliver it to us (gratis), within half an hour, on a hand truck all the way to the fridge....
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
Hard to identify the most surreal aspect of recent political news, but the fact that the Prime Minister is able to suddenly deploy a defunct social distancing rule to hide from public view for an entire week must be up there
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Very soon the same commentators who told you that Johnson was a political genius are going to tell you that Truss is a reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher. Every word they write will be vacuous bollocks.
The one thing Big Dom gets right and provable from the COVID coverage, the political media know the square root of f##k all about anything but gossip and scandal within Westminster.
" the political media know the square root of f##k all about anything but gossip and scandal within Westminster."
Is there any reason why the next PM couldn’t be a member of the Lords?
A question for Lord Frost, I think.
Do you have a feeling he wants it?
I do. I think he should be serious outside candidate in betting as one the brexiteers would trust and get behind.
The Lord thing easily put on suspension.
I'm sure he does want it, and (to go back to the self-awareness theme) he's probably deluded enough to think he has a chance. Certainly he seems to be on manoeuvres. But the practical obstacles are overwhelming, ain't gonna happen.
As you say, let’s get real here. There is absolutely no way that a Peer will become PM. It would now unconstitutional - there is a reason why the last one was 120 years ago. And before Lord Home is mentioned, he immediately sought election to the Commons. If Frost agreed to renounce his peerage (can he?) to become an MP, then he might just conceivably be a candidate if Tory MPs put him on the ballot for members.
Yes, no chance. No chance of Ruthie either, unfortunately.
Given the length and uncertainty of that process (imagine if such a candidate had renounced their peerage for ultra-safe, er, North Shropshire!), and presumption that any working peer has already chosen once to accept patronage rather going through it, I'd say the chances are pretty remote.
Lord Frost becomes Tory leader & Prime Minister in the middle July, the day after Parliament goes into recess for two months.
He's got two months to get elected.
I'm not sure even the most ardent headbangers in the PCP would think the solution to replacing an old Etonian who's lost his magic touch with the working classes would be a life peer whose last electoral success was becoming a liveryman of the Distillers' Company.. on the working assumption they could engineer him a safe seat while everyone's on holiday. I stand by "pretty remote"
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Maybe the DT are so keen to see the return of their top columnist that they are helping him through the window.
Surely Boris's value as a columnist is in tatters. His whole shtick was based upon 'I'm a lad, cut through the crap and have better solutions than all the stuffed shirts who run things.' Who would read his pontifications now with anything other than a rasping cackle or a disillusioned sigh?
So are you saying the public no longer see "the Emperor's New Clothes" just a naked overweight charlatan?
Panic is over isn't it, people can see that omicron is 'nothing to worry about' and besides we've done christmas, so if you get it now its a week off/isolating/wfh...
It does feel that way. Certainly my fear of the virus is less these days. In the early days of the pandemic I actually used to hold my breath if I got near anybody. Now as we approach the end of it I still try and keep my distance but there's none of that. I breath normally.
Apart from wearing a mask on public transport and in shops which remains a legal requirement until, I suspect, the next review, I am living an entirely normal existence. I was working at home a lot before it became fashionable and I don't miss trudging up to a cold tube station before dawn on a winter morning.
Former Scottish Tory MSP Adam Tomkins: "What is to stop all 31 Scottish Conservative MSPs resigning from the Conservative Party and saying they have a new whip, and it's called the liberal unionist whip? What's to stop that? That could happen overnight." https://twitter.com/alistairkgrant/status/1481898099421462533
I see that was prompted by a Scotsperson piece headlined "Downing Street garden party: Former party figure calls existence of Scottish Conservatives 'threat to union'" - I assume because they are part of the same party as Mr J, Mr R-M etc. But it's paywalled so I can't read it to find out who. I assume Prof Tomkins.
Found a tweet - it's Andy Maciver who said that, former comms chief.
Comments
The challenge is a) to stop the person in charge going mad, despite all the power and b) arranging a peaceful and successful succession to someone equally benign thereafter.
b) in particular is exceptionally difficult, and when things normally fall apart.
The current alternative seems to be the odd bung to Tory constituencies.
If you haven't already, next time you're there take the MRT on the NS line to Jurong East and get a view of the "real" Singapore.
Kate Josephs is Chief Executive of Sheffield City Council but a lot of others have gone to high paying jobs in the private sector.
The argument is unsound, to put it politely
Not really an option for most of the world.
An early work finish and it seems we have the thread equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb or asking if Newcastle are a worse premier League team than Norwich.
I see the defenders of Johnson are falling back on deflection - let's talk about something else, anything else than the poor old Prime Minister. What about the death of democracy apparently?
The crack about the NHS being the new religion of a chunk of the country etc....
A lot of Righties hate Patel, because they don't think she's very good at her job.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Dominic_Raab
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Michael_Gove
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Sajid_Javid
But this is no more the ‘real’ Singapore than Raffles. The average Singaporean lives in a fairly small apartment, sure, but it isn’t Stalinist. They also have extremely good schools. Excellent healthcare. Entirely crime free streets. Incredible public transport. Perpetual economic growth. And fucking great food
For 90% of Homo sapiens, that is quite enviable
Probably some combination of machines, sortition and referenda will be the successor. But God knows how the transition would be managed, given that the professional politicians would have to vote for their own abolition.
It's such a drag
It's a highly undesirable habit, this blanket strawmanning of groups of - crucially - unspecified posters like in this case "the defenders of Johnson." Who are they? Where are they defending him? Links pls.
My take on what the national numbers are hiding
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/01/the-situation-for-the-tories-is-worse-than-you-think
I find it very hard to believe that it was like that under the austere Theresa.
And at the same time, dashboard guy, who got ontop of the absolute disaster of data collection across the NHS, has also gone back to his day job. A massive loss there,. They should have been willing to pay him a boat load to head up a team to oversee revolutionizing data collection and processing across the public sector. Same as when nudge unit left working in #10. These are people who have actually got things done.
US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html
In marginal seats 33% of the Tory vote has turned to apathy - now the tory party may be able to win them back but Boris definitely can't.
See for yourself. Go to http://claro-gpt2.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/ (which I admit is GPT2 based, but the principle is the same.).
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
Not a lot else to be said for the idea mind.
The last two, unless there is a coronation, will be Rishi and Truss/ Hunt
No wonder she decided to leave and become Chief Executive of the council of the the greatest city in the world.
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people. I think it's a good idea to have a system where people can make decisions based on their own interests. I think it's a good idea to have a system where people can make decisions based on their own interests."
Well, a little bit.
https://freedomhouse.org/country/singapore/freedom-world/2021
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
I asked it for a poem titled "I would rather die"....
I would rather die than live a life that is less than true.
I would rather die than be a voice in the crowd.
I would rather die than never be heard at all.
I would rather die to be the one who stands apart,
who dares to take a stand, who dares to say,
this is what I think and this is what I feel.
But I hope that I can find another way
Because I don't want to die today.
I want to live a long and happy life
And when its time for me to go, well then let me go, but not today.
Not just yet
Not now.
But it ain't running the government...
This is where I get quite funny about the terms AI and ML. For me AI, is computer which understands and can explain what they are doing and why, which none of these massive neural network systems can do. There is no real concept of if what they are outputting makes any "sense" or not.
I don't think I would describe GPT-x as a pattern matcher, it is better described as a transformer (not in the Hollywood Michael Bay way).
He's got two months to get elected.
- Cases falling rapidly. R is below 1 in every region. The age vs R chart still fascinates -
- Admissions are flat - R is just below 1
- MV beds are showing signs of an increasing rate of fall.
- Deaths still going up
GPT5 will be able to write like Byron
It is quite scary. Anyone who isn’t scared by AI hasn’t read enough about it
The albatross effect in raw numbers.
And the AIs are getting better at it. The hardware is improving, too:
https://www.eetimes.com/samsung-claims-first-with-in-memory-mram/
It was denied.
I never thought to ask about the Cabinet Office https://twitter.com/katejosephs/status/1482010169693413383
Biden 43%
Trump 41%
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20
https://twitter.com/alistairkgrant/status/1481898099421462533
- not just on Brexit.. basically pragmatists/wets/centrists who cba with the culture wars but brushed up OK for fundraising dinners in the Home Counties.
I think there's much to be said for that lot coming back and shoring up traditional Tory lands (because the Red Wall is going to be very tricky to hold on to as part of the coalition), but I'd be surprised if the numbers are there in the current parliamentary party to get him in the last two?
I am not sure anybody read Boris column thinking I am going to get Big Dom levels of detail into the inner working of cutting edge machine learning and how it can be used to better government policy. More, some people enjoyed his amusing quips about current affairs.
Even putting to one side the major issues with the hypocrisy over Covid laws, it now sounds as though they had a problem with drinking culture regardless.
https://twitter.com/mrjoelclark/status/1482026076180209665
I see that was prompted by a Scotsperson piece headlined "Downing Street garden party: Former party figure calls existence of Scottish Conservatives 'threat to union'" - I assume because they are part of the same party as Mr J, Mr R-M etc. But it's paywalled so I can't read it to find out who. I assume Prof Tomkins.
In the absence of a Heseltine-type figure, you are looking at the three main offices of state so Sunak, Truss and Patel (all five letter surnames but that was true of Blair, Brown and of course Major as well as Heath).
The more intriguing question is what would a future Sunak or Truss Cabinet look like? Who would be in line for promotion or demotion if the current Chancellor or Foreign State successfully navigated the sea of electoral hazard and prevailed?
You'd imagine the winner would want his/her main opponent in a senior position because you keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Who would be Sunak's CoE for example - Trevelyan or Zahawi? I can't see Javid wanting the job again and the likes of Raab and Gove are already looking like yesterday's news.
Could Ben Wallace move to the Foreign Office in a Truss-led Government?
That's the thing about politics - the unexpected opportunity for advancement - could we see Michelle Donelan for example move up the Ministerial order somewhat?
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1482020658443952132?s=20
Fixed that for you.