I'm reading this article from July 2020 in The Times, which contains this.
In the course of writing this article, I spoke to several of his friends, male and female — some of 30 years’ standing and some with whom he has been intimate. All requested anonymity. Overall, two unanimous and firmly held opinions immediately emerged.
The first, that Andrew would have had no idea that the girls he met through Jeffrey Epstein were being trafficked and ordered to sleep with him; the second, that Andrew almost certainly did sleep with Virginia Roberts (an allegation he has strenuously denied). “Of course he did,” was everyone’s immediate answer. “He has always chased a shag,” said one, who should know, because she once shagged him herself.
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
The friend knows what a gullible mug SLeon is, and has spent a fun hour on Photoshop?
That, or they are the only person in London who happened to notice the massive alien spaceship rising above Tooting.
She has reassured me it’s not a wind up. The video is much more convincingly mysterious. She hasn’t got the tech skills to fake it
OTOH she has just claimed the “air outside smells of sulphur dioxide” and she’s linked this to the government telling us all to stay indoors today BECAUSE THEY KNOW SOMETHING IS GOING ON
I remain convinced that he'll eventually leave office discredited, or even disgraced, and will come to be seen as one of the most inadequate PMs of all time.
That actually makes the Tories look like the fun option. Not quite the intended effect.
I thought that. Labour has to be careful not to be seen as the boring hair shirts (they aren’t, as anyone who has witnessed the carnage at Labour conference will attest).
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Erm, isn't Singapore a democracy? Even if the same side always wins.
Not as we know it.....
Ranks below Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in SE Asia:
It is also far richer than any of those, indeed it is one of the richest countries on the planet
And it has zero crime
I’ve said this before on PB: 90% of people, if offered a choice between life in rich, crime-free, not-very-democratic Singapore, or life in a less rich, more dangerous, properly democratic alternative, would choose Singapore
Which is why Singapore is a challenge to liberal democracies (and liberalism) and why democracy is entirely doomed, long term. The super-computers will be the Singapore government on steroids. Cold, calculating, but phenomenally efficient at producing results
Which is strange. Because Taiwan has quite a population of Singaporeans who have moved precisely cos they like a bit of dirt, danger, surprise and adventure in their life.
I have never been to Taiwan. Hopefully will go some time.
Singapore is fine, indeed admirable, if your thing is ineffable smugness and you are content nothing interesting will ever happen there. To be fair and without too much sarcasm, that suits lots of people.
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
The point of democracy is that we can have a palace coup, minus the civil war and death, every 4-5 years.
Part of the reason for the nastiness of many dictatorships is the Tiger Problem. When you are riding a tiger, the problem is what happens when you get off.
As the philosopher said, "Remember, you are only President... for Life".
Yes, exactly. Mind you, we shouldn't delude ourselves that we have a smoothly functioning democracy in which we all have equal influence. I remember a few years ago giving a talk about the British system to a Chinese academic delegation (no, I wasn't paid £300,000 - £500 was the going rate), who listened politely to my explanation of the advantages of multi-party choice (I was slightly surprised they were even willing to pay to listen to it). One asked, "If we asked average British citizens whether they felt they had a meaningful impact on government at any level?" I admitted "Only to a very limited extent" and asked him how the average Chinese citizen would respond. He smiled wryly and shrugged without replying.
We are clearly more democratic than China and have more choice and far less retaliation against organised dissent. But it's so moderated by biased media, lack of serious information and £££ that it only really works in the sense that you say - to correct obvious disasters.
That's all democracy is, unless you have the Swiss system. At which point the prolescum can overturn *anything* they want.
Re latest revelations one Tory Mp tells me “it’s been terminal now for some days”, another says it makes things “very much worse” and will “bring things forward”. They think MPs chatting to constituents this weekend will be left in no doubt about how bad things are. https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1482038565777326081
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
Its an interesting question. What is it about Patel that makes the dislike of her so visceral. She's a hanger and flogger without an ounce of compassion but that just makes her a Tory. She's been sacked twice for dishonesty but that's on the low side.
Russia invades Ukraine Royal Family on trial for rape UK Government collapses due to ceaseless illegal plague time bacchanals Alien rockets seen over Tooting
On the subject of next Tory leader - I keep having the delicious thought of a triumphant PM Theresa May standing at the door of No.10 as Boris slopes off in a van.
Theresa May back in Number 10 with her new chief of staff, Dominic Cummings.
Excellent thought. I wonder if Johnson has to leave suddenly whether an interim PM that the Tory MPs can trust to leave office after a few months following a leadership election might not be a bad idea. I think a sudden departure is becoming more likely.
I did suggest Theresa could be a stand in a couple of days ago, while the election took place
I think there's a good chance now that everywhere Johnson goes he is actually going to be boo-ed by the public. Or worse.
I cannot imagine how he is going to front a GE campaign in 2024. Unless hiding for the five weeks counts as 'fronting'.
The history books will note that the collapse began the day he starting wibbling about Peppa pig rather than business rates and training.
The collapse began with Paterson. The Peppa Pig was the first time he tried that schtick afterwards. And suddenly it wasn't eccentric and amusing. Even the dim fawners could see it for its cretinous stupidity. Though some were keen to point to its outstanding genius at the time ISTR. Because reasons. Own the Libs at the CBI or some such.
Polling follows its own patterns sometimes, but Paterson was a real tipping point I think for a lot of people even irrespective of polling. There was just no reason to do what he did without sinister motivation, since the late u-turn and apology for getting things wrong rings insincere since they rejected the criticisms about it beforehand. It was a genuinely troubling action demonstrative of dislike of accountability, so blatant it caused a political blowback and setting of a storm with their own backbenchers.
Two men's arrogance to do whatever they wanted, Paterson and Boris, causing tremendous harm.
Yep. Also notable. The idea was cooked up with blokes from the Spectator. While plentiful booze was taken. Something of a theme.
Fancy a good and plausible conspiracy theory ? I tend to avoid them because they are normally just random fantastical things. I thought I would "make one up" but, me being me, It would have to have some degree of credibility. A sense of monkish depth. https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1481245316229836812
I think there's a good chance now that everywhere Johnson goes he is actually going to be boo-ed by the public. Or worse.
I cannot imagine how he is going to front a GE campaign in 2024. Unless hiding for the five weeks counts as 'fronting'.
The history books will note that the collapse began the day he starting wibbling about Peppa pig rather than business rates and training.
Extraordinary to think Peppa Day was 22 November, less than 7 weeks ago. Feels a lifetime.
I think when we are finally shot of the lying charlatan we should make 22nd Nov a new national bank holiday.
I was tempted to say that, but thought it was going too far. Would have to be E&W only as we have already got St Andrews's Day a week later than Peppa Pig Day.
I'm reading this article from July 2020 in The Times, which contains this.
In the course of writing this article, I spoke to several of his friends, male and female — some of 30 years’ standing and some with whom he has been intimate. All requested anonymity. Overall, two unanimous and firmly held opinions immediately emerged.
The first, that Andrew would have had no idea that the girls he met through Jeffrey Epstein were being trafficked and ordered to sleep with him; the second, that Andrew almost certainly did sleep with Virginia Roberts (an allegation he has strenuously denied). “Of course he did,” was everyone’s immediate answer. “He has always chased a shag,” said one, who should know, because she once shagged him herself.
Re latest revelations one Tory Mp tells me “it’s been terminal now for some days”, another says it makes things “very much worse” and will “bring things forward”. They think MPs chatting to constituents this weekend will be left in no doubt about how bad things are. https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1482038565777326081
Sunday's papers are going to be pure popcorn.
There has to be more to come.
The clock is definitely ticking.
I wonder. Obviously he is manifestly unfit to be PM but then he has been manifestly unfit to be PM for many years. Just ask @Theuniondivvie.
And we are two years plus from the GE. I just wonder if they are going to hunker down and let time do its thing. And be successful to boot.
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
The point of democracy is that we can have a palace coup, minus the civil war and death, every 4-5 years.
Part of the reason for the nastiness of many dictatorships is the Tiger Problem. When you are riding a tiger, the problem is what happens when you get off.
As the philosopher said, "Remember, you are only President... for Life".
Yes, exactly. Mind you, we shouldn't delude ourselves that we have a smoothly functioning democracy in which we all have equal influence. I remember a few years ago giving a talk about the British system to a Chinese academic delegation (no, I wasn't paid £300,000 - £500 was the going rate), who listened politely to my explanation of the advantages of multi-party choice (I was slightly surprised they were even willing to pay to listen to it). One asked, "If we asked average British citizens whether they felt they had a meaningful impact on government at any level?" I admitted "Only to a very limited extent" and asked him how the average Chinese citizen would respond. He smiled wryly and shrugged without replying.
We are clearly more democratic than China and have more choice and far less retaliation against organised dissent. But it's so moderated by biased media, lack of serious information and £££ that it only really works in the sense that you say - to correct obvious disasters.
TBF the object of democracy isn't so much that the voter feels influence but that the politician feels influenced.
Politics professor @robfordmancs: 'There's a good chance that, in the days to come, Boris Johnson is going to literally break records for unpopularity as a Prime Minister.'
- Cases falling rapidly. R is below 1 in every region. The age vs R chart still fascinates -
- Admissions are flat - R is just below 1 - MV beds are showing signs of an increasing rate of fall. - Deaths still going up
Well South Africa did seem to suggest something like this.
The big question to me is why did cases peak at 200k a day? We had people suggesting a million per day. I'm sure the acceleration of the booster programme had an effect but is that it?
Maybe the real infection rate is a lot higher than 200k a day. In which case CFR would have to be correspondingly lower.
I'm more and more convinced that my relaxed attitude to omicron will prove correct.
Russia invades Ukraine Royal Family on trial for rape UK Government collapses due to ceaseless illegal plague time bacchanals Alien rockets seen over Tooting
And that’s just TODAY and it’s still not 6pm
I'm tempted to get absolutely suitcased to calm my nerves.
Politics professor @robfordmancs: 'There's a good chance that, in the days to come, Boris Johnson is going to literally break records for unpopularity as a Prime Minister.'
Rules are only for little people, part 2,788 in this week's series...
I actually think it would be acceptable for the PM to not be bound to such a rule, I think the nature of the role requires flexibility in such a critical situation, but since they would not have made such an argument themselves, and did not attempt to justify not being so bound, it is no defence when they were urging everyone to follow the guidance, including themselves.
On the subject of next Tory leader - I keep having the delicious thought of a triumphant PM Theresa May standing at the door of No.10 as Boris slopes off in a van.
Theresa May back in Number 10 with her new chief of staff, Dominic Cummings.
Excellent thought. I wonder if Johnson has to leave suddenly whether an interim PM that the Tory MPs can trust to leave office after a few months following a leadership election might not be a bad idea. I think a sudden departure is becoming more likely.
I did suggest Theresa could be a stand in a couple of days ago, while the election took place
Panic is over isn't it, people can see that omicron is 'nothing to worry about' and besides we've done christmas, so if you get it now its a week off/isolating/wfh...
If you look at the other two jabs, there's a real inflection point around 55-60 %.
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
The point of democracy is that we can have a palace coup, minus the civil war and death, every 4-5 years.
Part of the reason for the nastiness of many dictatorships is the Tiger Problem. When you are riding a tiger, the problem is what happens when you get off.
As the philosopher said, "Remember, you are only President... for Life".
Yes, exactly. Mind you, we shouldn't delude ourselves that we have a smoothly functioning democracy in which we all have equal influence. I remember a few years ago giving a talk about the British system to a Chinese academic delegation (no, I wasn't paid £300,000 - £500 was the going rate), who listened politely to my explanation of the advantages of multi-party choice (I was slightly surprised they were even willing to pay to listen to it). One asked, "If we asked average British citizens whether they felt they had a meaningful impact on government at any level?" I admitted "Only to a very limited extent" and asked him how the average Chinese citizen would respond. He smiled wryly and shrugged without replying.
We are clearly more democratic than China and have more choice and far less retaliation against organised dissent. But it's so moderated by biased media, lack of serious information and £££ that it only really works in the sense that you say - to correct obvious disasters.
TBF the object of democracy isn't so much that the voter feels influence but that the politician feels influenced.
I'm not sure I agree with Nick. I mean, there is only so much influence one person out of 68 million can have - but democracies are far, far, far better than non-democracies at giving people what they want. Now you might argue that what people want isn't necessarily what people should have. Working in the public sector I come across that view quite a lot. Occasionally I agree. But I would argue that what the public thinks they should have is a much better match for what they actually should have than what the state thinks they should have. I believe in democracy pretty much above everything else. Though that might have been tested had the 2019 GE gone the other way.
- Cases falling rapidly. R is below 1 in every region. The age vs R chart still fascinates -
- Admissions are flat - R is just below 1 - MV beds are showing signs of an increasing rate of fall. - Deaths still going up
Well South Africa did seem to suggest something like this.
The big question to me is why did cases peak at 200k a day? We had people suggesting a million per day. I'm sure the acceleration of the booster programme had an effect but is that it?
Maybe the real infection rate is a lot higher than 200k a day. In which case CFR would have to be correspondingly lower.
I'm more and more convinced that my relaxed attitude to omicron will prove correct.
In every "crazy wave of COVID zooming to 1 trillion cases!", the reality was the peak was much, much earlier than that and infected only a small fraction of the population.
After the first 3-5 ties, we should expect it, not be suprised.
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
The point of democracy is that we can have a palace coup, minus the civil war and death, every 4-5 years.
Part of the reason for the nastiness of many dictatorships is the Tiger Problem. When you are riding a tiger, the problem is what happens when you get off.
As the philosopher said, "Remember, you are only President... for Life".
Yes, exactly. Mind you, we shouldn't delude ourselves that we have a smoothly functioning democracy in which we all have equal influence. I remember a few years ago giving a talk about the British system to a Chinese academic delegation (no, I wasn't paid £300,000 - £500 was the going rate), who listened politely to my explanation of the advantages of multi-party choice (I was slightly surprised they were even willing to pay to listen to it). One asked, "If we asked average British citizens whether they felt they had a meaningful impact on government at any level?" I admitted "Only to a very limited extent" and asked him how the average Chinese citizen would respond. He smiled wryly and shrugged without replying.
We are clearly more democratic than China and have more choice and far less retaliation against organised dissent. But it's so moderated by biased media, lack of serious information and £££ that it only really works in the sense that you say - to correct obvious disasters.
TBF the object of democracy isn't so much that the voter feels influence but that the politician feels influenced.
I'm not sure I agree with Nick. I mean, there is only so much influence one person out of 68 million can have - but democracies are far, far, far better than non-democracies at giving people what they want. Now you might argue that what people want isn't necessarily what people should have. Working in the public sector I come across that view quite a lot. Occasionally I agree. But I would argue that what the public thinks they should have is a much better match for what they actually should have than what the state thinks they should have. I believe in democracy pretty much above everything else. Though that might have been tested had the 2019 GE gone the other way.
Edit - just noticed Nick's 'at any level' comment. If you don't think you have any influence over your local council and you want some, it is pretty easy. Local councils are crying out for people to care about local government. In my experience pretty much any expression of interest not expressed insanely is welcomed.
It sounds pompous, but it’s the total disrespect for the office. You are working in Downing St ffs. For the actual prime minister. Get dressed properly and do some bloody work.
Instead it’s all skinny jeans and trainers and shitposting and vanity photographers and piss-up.
In 17 years in Westminster, I mostly had the idea that people working in government were largely trying their best (even the useless ones), were daunted by that black door, were grown ups running the country.
Now it’s all wine o’clock and who gets a spin on Carrie’s lazy susan
My benefit of the doubt. My assumption of a degree of competence. My willingness not to assume the worst of the British public. My determination not to be an anti-Tory rent-a-gob. All of that means trying to deny a gut feeling that he is appallingly unfit to be PM
He degrades everything, all of the unwritten and written rules that make the system work; a thin-skinned, pathetic, lonely, underwhelming, unimaginative, disloyal, friendless narcissist.
This isn’t an anti-Tory rant. Every Tory should be ashamed of what’s been done in their name
A commentator who seems to think that wearing a suit equates to competence. I think we all know messy devils who are brilliant at their job (especially in tech...), and people dressed smartly in suits who are just image.
Many year ago, I worked for a tech start-up which was run by a man with a green mohawk and who wouldn't even wear a suit for his own wedding. But a quite brilliant individual.
Here in Seattle that's SOP.
Years ago a friend of mine was asked to help translate for a group of German business types who were looking to attract the interest of movers & shakers in the Seattle tech community. The Germans were all dressed in suit & tie, and made a point of schmoozing the Americans in the room who were similarly decked out.
Which struck my friend as pretty funny. Because what he knew - and they were clueless about - was that the locals in suits were all middle-management flunky types working for the guys in jeans, plaid shirts and pile vests. The REAL big wigs - who the Germans either blew off or ignored entirely.
Needless to say, they did NOT get the business they were seeking.
HOWEVER, think that the knock on "skinny jeans" worn by Bullingtonian wannabes currently infesting Boris Johnson's (in)civil service, is only a VERY minor note to the commentator's critique.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Having a massive corpus of text, and using maths to predict the next word, sentence, etc. is not intelligence.
It's just a parrot with a larger vocabulary.
Now, there are amazing ways that AI/ML will change the world. But GPT3 isn't it. It's simply a party trick.
"Long ago, the Victorian constitutional expert Walter Bagehot said the British monarch had three rights when meeting a prime minister: to be consulted, to encourage and to warn.
Johnson has added another one to the list: the right to an apology."
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Autocomplete works by pattern matching.
Ok as we’re talking about AI and war and UFOs - kinda - a young female friend of mine in Tooting has just seen THIS
She wears it is ten times bigger than a plane and it is going STRAIGHT UP. Like a space rocket or a missile. There’s a short video as well, which proves this.
Wtf is that? Do we have a secret space base in Tooting?
I’m pleasantly flummoxed. Any ideas? Optical illusion? Plane seen at a weird angle?
Could be anything; angles can be very hard to discern in the sky, especially with a low sun. One thing it won't be is an alien taking an intense interest in Tooting.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Autocomplete works by pattern matching.
Ok as we’re talking about AI and war and UFOs - kinda - a young female friend of mine in Tooting has just seen THIS
She wears it is ten times bigger than a plane and it is going STRAIGHT UP. Like a space rocket or a missile. There’s a short video as well, which proves this.
Wtf is that? Do we have a secret space base in Tooting?
I’m pleasantly flummoxed. Any ideas? Optical illusion? Plane seen at a weird angle?
Panic is over isn't it, people can see that omicron is 'nothing to worry about' and besides we've done christmas, so if you get it now its a week off/isolating/wfh...
If you look at the other two jabs, there's a real inflection point around 55-60 %.
The reason for the tail off becomes clearer when you look at the age breakdowns.
The following is the number of 3rd vaccination left to do for England & Scotland - define as number of each group who have had a second more than 90 days ago, but haven't had a third....
Its an interesting question. What is it about Patel that makes the dislike of her so visceral. She's a hanger and flogger without an ounce of compassion but that just makes her a Tory. She's been sacked twice for dishonesty but that's on the low side.
So what are you left with.............
I know what you’re alluding to, and no doubt that, sadly, will be a factor. But It’s the smirk for me. On top of the fact that she’s a compassionless hanger and flogger. That self-satisfied smirk really riles me.
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
The point of democracy is that we can have a palace coup, minus the civil war and death, every 4-5 years.
Part of the reason for the nastiness of many dictatorships is the Tiger Problem. When you are riding a tiger, the problem is what happens when you get off.
As the philosopher said, "Remember, you are only President... for Life".
Yes, exactly. Mind you, we shouldn't delude ourselves that we have a smoothly functioning democracy in which we all have equal influence. I remember a few years ago giving a talk about the British system to a Chinese academic delegation (no, I wasn't paid £300,000 - £500 was the going rate), who listened politely to my explanation of the advantages of multi-party choice (I was slightly surprised they were even willing to pay to listen to it). One asked, "If we asked average British citizens whether they felt they had a meaningful impact on government at any level?" I admitted "Only to a very limited extent" and asked him how the average Chinese citizen would respond. He smiled wryly and shrugged without replying.
We are clearly more democratic than China and have more choice and far less retaliation against organised dissent. But it's so moderated by biased media, lack of serious information and £££ that it only really works in the sense that you say - to correct obvious disasters.
Many moons ago, Goldman Sachs did a conference, and Gavyn Davis stood up and said
"I have spent the last two weeks in China, and it is very clear that the Chinese people do not want democracy."
and then Peter Sutherland's turn came, and he said:
"I am so glad that Gavyn's meetings with high up members of the Chinese Communist Party have given him such crucial insights into the minds of the Chinese people."
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Having a massive corpus of text, and using maths to predict the next word, sentence, etc. is not intelligence.
It's just a parrot with a larger vocabulary.
Now, there are amazing ways that AI/ML will change the world. But GPT3 isn't it. It's simply a party trick.
We’ve already had this debate on PB multiple times, and, TBH, at a much more sophisticated level than the point you are making here
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Benevolent dictatorship works when you have a competent benevolent dictator.
The problem is that one day you'll end up with an average leader, and then another day you'll end up with a dreadful one, and no way of removing them.
And there's no way to get around that. China had competent dictators based around 10 year terms. (Maybe 'benevolent' is a little generous, but still...)
And then along came Xi and ripped that up and made himself President (sorry General Secretary) for life. Oh yeah, and also started acting belligerently to the rest of the world. If the Chinese people don't like this, there is exactly nothing they can do about it.
How many stable benevolent dictatorships have there been over time?
The point of democracy is that we can have a palace coup, minus the civil war and death, every 4-5 years.
Part of the reason for the nastiness of many dictatorships is the Tiger Problem. When you are riding a tiger, the problem is what happens when you get off.
As the philosopher said, "Remember, you are only President... for Life".
Yes, exactly. Mind you, we shouldn't delude ourselves that we have a smoothly functioning democracy in which we all have equal influence. I remember a few years ago giving a talk about the British system to a Chinese academic delegation (no, I wasn't paid £300,000 - £500 was the going rate), who listened politely to my explanation of the advantages of multi-party choice (I was slightly surprised they were even willing to pay to listen to it). One asked, "If we asked average British citizens whether they felt they had a meaningful impact on government at any level?" I admitted "Only to a very limited extent" and asked him how the average Chinese citizen would respond. He smiled wryly and shrugged without replying.
We are clearly more democratic than China and have more choice and far less retaliation against organised dissent. But it's so moderated by biased media, lack of serious information and £££ that it only really works in the sense that you say - to correct obvious disasters.
Many moons ago, Goldman Sachs did a conference, and Gavyn Davis stood up and said
"I have spent the last two weeks in China, and it is very clear that the Chinese people do not want democracy."
and then Peter Sutherland's turn came, and he said:
"I am so glad that Gavyn's meetings with high up members of the Chinese Communist Party have given him such crucial insights into the minds of the Chinese people."
I told a friend who failed to get into Goldmans that he'd obviously answered the "Would you sell your grandmother?" question wrong.
In case anyone wonders - the correct answer is
"No. Selling your grandmother would create an immediate tax liability. Instead, you setup an OTC market in Collateralised Grandparent Default Swaps and sell the instruments to Belgian widows and orphans"
Prime ministers don't normally commute from chequers.
The problem is that the public are likely to think of it as a second home.
Anyway given the mountain of allegations the prime minister finds himself dealing with, it's only one more to add to the pile.
It's notable because it suggests that a fair few people now are spilling the beans.
My guess is that junior staff in Downing Street can see the politicians manoevering to dump the ordure on the staff and are consequently brave enough to try and shunt some blame back where it belongs.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Autocomplete works by pattern matching.
Ok as we’re talking about AI and war and UFOs - kinda - a young female friend of mine in Tooting has just seen THIS
She wears it is ten times bigger than a plane and it is going STRAIGHT UP. Like a space rocket or a missile. There’s a short video as well, which proves this.
Wtf is that? Do we have a secret space base in Tooting?
I’m pleasantly flummoxed. Any ideas? Optical illusion? Plane seen at a weird angle?
She is either gaga or suitcased
Why not both? Have you checked the supply of cask strength turnip juice? Someone may have been siphoning from the barrel??
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
Update on Tooting-gate.
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
Thing is the fear has gone. Fear of COVID. Fear of Boris. I don't think the two are unconnected. Every last person he's intimidated and shafted on the way up will want a kick to the balls while he's down. Expect a lot more on his behaviour and way of doing business.
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
Update on Tooting-gate.
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
As a rich liberal remainer, grateful for some advice. Rather than getting my coffee made by a Romanian, I made eight cups of tea today for the working class English people building something for me in the garden. And two cheese toasties. I also failed to tell them to work harder, as they seem to be working fairly hard without my input. Am I doing this wrong?
Yes. Should have been eight cheese toasties.
Miserable git indeed, a quarter of a cheese toastie per head
Malcolm there were two guys. I made them a cheese toastie each. They also had a caramel wafer and a packet of crisps!
@OnlyLivingBoy I know I was jesting , re you saying 8 cups of tea and two toasties.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Having a massive corpus of text, and using maths to predict the next word, sentence, etc. is not intelligence.
It's just a parrot with a larger vocabulary.
Now, there are amazing ways that AI/ML will change the world. But GPT3 isn't it. It's simply a party trick.
We’ve already had this debate on PB multiple times, and, TBH, at a much more sophisticated level than the point you are making here
Gpt-3 is fundamentally gpt-2 with more time (money) spent training it.
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
Update on Tooting-gate.
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
It's not Woking is it? I read a book set there once.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
At this rate the civil service is going to come out of this with an even worse reputation than Boris.
It raises serious questions on their culture and just how long this has been going on
A poster earlier said it was in 2017 and I have no doubt employment law will have to address this
Why? It’s perfectly permissible for an employer to ban the consumption of alcohol on its premises at any time. Why do we have to legislate for terrible employers with awful cultures?
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
Update on Tooting-gate.
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
It's not Woking is it? I read a book set there once.
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Having a massive corpus of text, and using maths to predict the next word, sentence, etc. is not intelligence.
It's just a parrot with a larger vocabulary.
Now, there are amazing ways that AI/ML will change the world. But GPT3 isn't it. It's simply a party trick.
We’ve already had this debate on PB multiple times, and, TBH, at a much more sophisticated level than the point you are making here
The fundamental issue - which you really haven't got over - is that you don't understand how GPT3 works.
The more people understand it - and there's a fair amount of understanding on this board - the less impressed they are that it in any way approximates intelligence.
There are many, many AI/ML systems that might be able to produce generalised intelligence. GPT3x is not one of them.
Kate Josephs, the former head of the Government unit responsible for drawing covid-19 restrictions, was given a leaving do in the Cabinet Office on December 17 2020 - the day before the Number 10 Xmas Party
At this rate the civil service is going to come out of this with an even worse reputation than Boris.
It raises serious questions on their culture and just how long this has been going on
A poster earlier said it was in 2017 and I have no doubt employment law will have to address this
Why? It’s perfectly permissible for an employer to ban the consumption of alcohol on its premises at any time. Why do we have to legislate for terrible employers with awful cultures?
This is the civil service and change has to come to their culture
Extinction Rebellion: Jury clears protesters dragged off train roof
Last month, the Anglican priest admitted she was "surprised" to avoid jail for blocking the M25. She was one of seven members of Insulate Britain who were handed suspended sentences for breaching an injunction and being in contempt of court.
So we can't even claim well it was just one of those things she got a bit carried away. She already guilty of blocking motorways and has a suspended sentence against her. Clear pattern of behaviour.
Perhaps jury trial, like democracy, has had its day
I’m semi-serious. That’s another implication from Cummings’ blog. Democracy may be dying. If it is proved that other systems are better at delivering prosperity, peace and happiness is democracy intrinsically worry pursuing? Hence his (and my) fascination with Singapore
And yes I get the irony that I voted Leavd ‘because democracy’ but the world is full of complex ironies
FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions which are so much smarter and more strategic and less emotional than any politician - or Eurocrat, or CCP apparatchik - we will hand over all our governance to the machines
Now take your sentence - "FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions"
And let's see how it does at producing something sensible:
"FWIW I think democracy definitely IS finished, in the long term, thanks to AI. GPT37 will make decisions on the basis of the best interests of the people . I think it 's 's a a time good good good good good to to to to to for for have"
Kinda good to the end of the sentence... And then utter gibberish.
All these GPT "AIs" are just pattern matchers: they don't have any ability to reason.
The difference between GPT2 and GPT3 is dumbfounding. The latter is so much “smarter”. After five or ten more iterations what will they be capable of achieving? The argument as to whether they are “intelligent” will be reduced to theology, they will certainly appear EXTREMELY intelligent, more so than us
And it’s not “pattern matching” - it’s autocomplete, which is somewhat different
Having a massive corpus of text, and using maths to predict the next word, sentence, etc. is not intelligence.
It's just a parrot with a larger vocabulary.
Now, there are amazing ways that AI/ML will change the world. But GPT3 isn't it. It's simply a party trick.
We’ve already had this debate on PB multiple times, and, TBH, at a much more sophisticated level than the point you are making here
The fundamental issue - which you really haven't got over - is that you don't understand how GPT3 works.
The more people understand it - and there's a fair amount of understanding on this board - the less impressed they are that it in any way approximates intelligence.
There are many, many AI/ML systems that might be able to produce generalised intelligence. GPT3x is not one of them.
Russia invades Ukraine Royal Family on trial for rape UK Government collapses due to ceaseless illegal plague time bacchanals Alien rockets seen over Tooting
And that’s just TODAY and it’s still not 6pm
"UK Government collapses due to ceaseless illegal plague time bacchanals"
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
Update on Tooting-gate.
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
Tooting-gate??????
Are you sure Boris isn't putting a dead cat on the table?
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
I think the chemtrails have softened your brain
Update on Tooting-gate.
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
It's not Woking is it? I read a book set there once.
When I was young I lived in Byfleet. It is weird reading a book about Martians blowing up your local pub.
It really doesn’t look like a military jet in the video. It looks like exactly like a shiny silver missile or space rocket. Over Tooting
It looks like a firework, if we can get past your friend's estimate that it was ten times bigger than a plane.
It’s definitely not a firework. It’s a rocket (or a jet) of some kind. With a vapour trail.
I would post the video but I’ve told her I’ll try and sell it to the daily mail for £50 first. If I fail I will post it here for the group opinion. A genuine mystery (tho I don’t think it is aliens)
Comments
I really am not sure it is. Not working but partying all the time might be aspirational for many ... Witty, but ...
In the course of writing this article, I spoke to several of his friends, male and female — some of 30 years’ standing and some with whom he has been intimate. All requested anonymity. Overall, two unanimous and firmly held opinions immediately emerged.
The first, that Andrew would have had no idea that the girls he met through Jeffrey Epstein were being trafficked and ordered to sleep with him; the second, that Andrew almost certainly did sleep with Virginia Roberts (an allegation he has strenuously denied). “Of course he did,” was everyone’s immediate answer. “He has always chased a shag,” said one, who should know, because she once shagged him herself.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrews-sexual-appetite-was-always-his-blind-spot-nlwxtfwlv
Singapore is fine, indeed admirable, if your thing is ineffable smugness and you are content nothing interesting will ever happen there. To be fair and without too much sarcasm, that suits lots of people.
They say Johnson “commuted” between Downing Street and Chequers in the period 16th March and 27th March 2020.
Link updated with new story below. https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1482001541284384768
There has to be more to come.
The clock is definitely ticking.
Royal Family on trial for rape
UK Government collapses due to ceaseless illegal plague time bacchanals
Alien rockets seen over Tooting
And that’s just TODAY and it’s still not 6pm
And wouldn't she love it
Also notable. The idea was cooked up with blokes from the Spectator. While plentiful booze was taken.
Something of a theme.
Fancy a good and plausible conspiracy theory ?
I tend to avoid them because they are normally just random fantastical things.
I thought I would "make one up" but, me being me, It would have to have some degree of credibility.
A sense of monkish depth.
https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1481245316229836812
And we are two years plus from the GE. I just wonder if they are going to hunker down and let time do its thing. And be successful to boot.
Noel Beauchamp, Tory-supporting entrepreneur:
"It is a complete shambles and I think he should resign.
He lies, he lies again and again and he’s dishonest.
He won’t come clean so there is more to come I’m sure.”
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1482041994574766083
@eddiemair https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1482041874689015811/video/1
The big question to me is why did cases peak at 200k a day? We had people suggesting a million per day. I'm sure the acceleration of the booster programme had an effect but is that it?
Maybe the real infection rate is a lot higher than 200k a day. In which case CFR would have to be correspondingly lower.
I'm more and more convinced that my relaxed attitude to omicron will prove correct.
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1481997748190818309/photo/1
I mean, there is only so much influence one person out of 68 million can have - but democracies are far, far, far better than non-democracies at giving people what they want.
Now you might argue that what people want isn't necessarily what people should have. Working in the public sector I come across that view quite a lot. Occasionally I agree. But I would argue that what the public thinks they should have is a much better match for what they actually should have than what the state thinks they should have.
I believe in democracy pretty much above everything else.
Though that might have been tested had the 2019 GE gone the other way.
I think it would look good on his CV if he was one of the 54...
After the first 3-5 ties, we should expect it, not be suprised.
So it looks like this is curtains....
HYUFD?
If you don't think you have any influence over your local council and you want some, it is pretty easy. Local councils are crying out for people to care about local government. In my experience pretty much any expression of interest not expressed insanely is welcomed.
Years ago a friend of mine was asked to help translate for a group of German business types who were looking to attract the interest of movers & shakers in the Seattle tech community. The Germans were all dressed in suit & tie, and made a point of schmoozing the Americans in the room who were similarly decked out.
Which struck my friend as pretty funny. Because what he knew - and they were clueless about - was that the locals in suits were all middle-management flunky types working for the guys in jeans, plaid shirts and pile vests. The REAL big wigs - who the Germans either blew off or ignored entirely.
Needless to say, they did NOT get the business they were seeking.
HOWEVER, think that the knock on "skinny jeans" worn by Bullingtonian wannabes currently infesting Boris Johnson's (in)civil service, is only a VERY minor note to the commentator's critique.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1482044441015824393?s=20
It's just a parrot with a larger vocabulary.
Now, there are amazing ways that AI/ML will change the world. But GPT3 isn't it. It's simply a party trick.
"Long ago, the Victorian constitutional expert Walter Bagehot said the British monarch had three rights when meeting a prime minister: to be consulted, to encourage and to warn.
Johnson has added another one to the list: the right to an apology."
https://twitter.com/CeriThomas01/status/1482041849292414976
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1482039865856385024
The following is the number of 3rd vaccination left to do for England & Scotland - define as number of each group who have had a second more than 90 days ago, but haven't had a third....
18 29 2,633,137
30 39 2,201,572
40 49 1,538,896
50 54 563,313
55 59 432,179
60 64 267,718
65 69 155,743
70 74 108,940
75 79 75,123
80+ 138,419
It is the 50+ take-up which is critical.
"I have spent the last two weeks in China, and it is very clear that the Chinese people do not want democracy."
and then Peter Sutherland's turn came, and he said:
"I am so glad that Gavyn's meetings with high up members of the Chinese Communist Party have given him such crucial insights into the minds of the Chinese people."
The problem is that the public are likely to think of it as a second home.
Anyway given the mountain of allegations the prime minister finds himself dealing with, it's only one more to add to the pile.
Danny, that is, obvs.
In case anyone wonders - the correct answer is
"No. Selling your grandmother would create an immediate tax liability. Instead, you setup an OTC market in Collateralised Grandparent Default Swaps and sell the instruments to Belgian widows and orphans"
My guess is that junior staff in Downing Street can see the politicians manoevering to dump the ordure on the staff and are consequently brave enough to try and shunt some blame back where it belongs.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/14/arron-banks-carole-cadwalladr-libel-trial
Feeling better?
A poster earlier said it was in 2017 and I have no doubt employment law will have to address this
She says the object was to the southwest of Tooting. In the video it looks big and stable (so not a firework) - definitely some kind of aircraft with a vapour trail?
So then the best bet is a military jet making a very speedy and vertical ascent somewhere in far SW London or Surrey, and the unusual low sunlight makes the jet look like a missile
Any RAF bods here? Do we have many active military airfields in Surrey?
Fear of COVID. Fear of Boris.
I don't think the two are unconnected.
Every last person he's intimidated and shafted on the way up will want a kick to the balls while he's down.
Expect a lot more on his behaviour and way of doing business.
I know I was jesting , re you saying 8 cups of tea and two toasties.
I read a book set there once.
The more people understand it - and there's a fair amount of understanding on this board - the less impressed they are that it in any way approximates intelligence.
There are many, many AI/ML systems that might be able to produce generalised intelligence. GPT3x is not one of them.
Number 10 declined to comment on the plan.
But a spox said they "absolutely do not recognise" its informal name (acc.sources): Operation Save Big Dog.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-downing-street-partygate-b1993433.html
I love that description. Chapeau, sir.
Are you sure Boris isn't putting a dead cat on the table?
No idea how much trouble you would get into for launching one of these over Tooting.