You cannot seriously pretend every district council by-election is a referendum on Starmer, simply because you have a particular view on it.
Labour will be disappointed. Lib Dems will be delighted. But let's look at results over a period of time - there will be losses by all major parties to all other major parties in local by-elections this year based on both national trends and local circumstances.
You cannot seriously pretend every district council by-election is a referendum on Starmer, simply because you have a particular view on it.
Labour will be disappointed. Lib Dems will be delighted. But let's look at results over a period of time - there will be losses by all major parties to all other major parties in local by-elections this year based on both national trends and local circumstances.
I think most local elections except where there is a popular independent are more to do with national rather than local issues.
Just asked my Missus how many Taiwanese would fight if invaded. "Every single, last fucking one" was her assessment. " Whilst there would always be quislings and appeasers, it would be like Britain facing the Nazis. 14 year old girls on bikes as suicide bombers. It is their island home. Being invaded. Hitler thought we wouldn't fight cos he thought we were essentially the same people. He was very wrong."
Possibly a stupid question but is your wife Taiwanese?
She lived there a very long time. You can't be Taiwanese if you aren't of the correct ethnicity. Irony klaxon! I think she's hyperbolising FWIW. However. I do think people underestimate how despised the CCP is on Taiwan. Not the Chinese people. But the Party. It unites everyone. The pro independence folk despise them as potential colonisers. The dwindling number of pro unification folk despise them as Communists (they tend to be quite right wing). And the ambivalent despise them as both.
I've met a few Taiwanese people - mainly in Thailand (which they love)
One thing which has always struck me is how big and muscular the men are, in comparison to our stereotypical view of the Chinese as small and scrawny. Turns out that was always a question of diet and health. After 70 years of protein, young Taiwanese men are as big as Europeans
Yes, they despise the CCP, in my experience. But they still think of themselves as Chinese (after Taiwanese), I am not sure they would fight like the Okinawans against America, if Beijing came knocking
Well. We may find out soon. Incidentally. There is a lot of Polynesian genes in the Taiwanese. The native inhabitants, who were not wiped out are stocky and tend to fat, yet still fit. Think Samoan rugby players. There is a surprising amount of naturally curly hair on the island too. Even amongst the ethnically Han Chinese. They've been mixing for over 500 years after all.
Interesting!
I yearn to go to Taiwan, I hear it is fascinating, unexpectedly beautiful in places, and the food is great (I kind of expected the last, east Asian food is nearly always great)
But God I yearn to travel: anywhere. I just saw this tweet about the mad borders of central Asia and I thought: right, that's it, I'm going to Tajikstan before I get too old to do this stuff (central Asia is one of the few places I've never been)
"The Uzbek-Tajik-Kirgiz borders are some of the most cursed in the world. Tajiks have 3 exclaves trapped in foreign countries, while Uzbeks have 3 exclaves trapped in Kirgizstan."
..... And then I remembered Covid. Ah, feck. May it go away soon
Night night, PB
Get yourself to Taiwan. It is truly fascinating. Amazingly beautiful in parts. Grotesquely ugly in others. Bits of it are like stepping back into 17th Century China. Others are like Blade Runner. And they are your kind of people. Outspoken, bacchanalian and hot. Lovely beaches. By far the best Chinese cuisine. (Another tradition which pre-dates the Civil War). Sweaty LGBT techno clubs. Young ladies in bikinis selling betelnut by the roadside. Crook backed peasants in conical hats tending rice. The highest mountains east of the Himalayas. Rainforest. Street fist fights. A drinking culture. Sweat. Top class all you can eat buffets at every decent hotel. Pitch-by- pitch baseball betting. Punch ups in the Legislature. 24 hour shops everywhere. Even in villages. Tolerance. I could go on, but I need to check flights. God I miss that place and my youth!
Only two Republicans observed the silence for the Capitol Police officers who died a year ago. Dick and Liz Cheney. But hey, both sides are as bad as each other.
Not much in politics is genuinely shocking, but this is.
For what it's worth, the great State of Washington is split in twain by winter storm, with all passes over the Cascades from the Columbia River Gorge north to the Canadian border closed until further notice.
Don't know what situation is in Oregon or Canada, imagine pretty much the same.
The snow that fell Dec 26, alone with the thick ice that resulted on main roads, back streets and sidewalks (the last two most problematic) is finally gone, thanks to strong rains & slightly warmer weather. Right now it's raining steadily in the lowlands including Seattle, and snowing like a sonofabitch up in the mountains. Great for skiiers WHEN they get the roads plowed!
Pretty frequent for one or more passes to close for a day or more due to winter weather, but cannot recall last time ALL of the routes across the Cascades were shut at once.
In addition to sheer snowfall amounts (over two feet up in the passes, let alone the peaks) is severe avalanche danger.
For what it's worth, the great State of Washington is split in twain by winter storm, with all passes over the Cascades from the Columbia River Gorge north to the Canadian border closed until further notice.
Don't know what situation is in Oregon or Canada, imagine pretty much the same.
The snow that fell Dec 26, alone with the thick ice that resulted on main roads, back streets and sidewalks (the last two most problematic) is finally gone, thanks to strong rains & slightly warmer weather. Right now it's raining steadily in the lowlands including Seattle, and snowing like a sonofabitch up in the mountains. Great for skiiers WHEN they get the roads plowed!
Pretty frequent for one or more passes to close for a day or more due to winter weather, but cannot recall last time ALL of the routes across the Cascades were shut at once.
In addition to sheer snowfall amounts (over two feet up in the passes, let alone the peaks) is severe avalanche danger.
My friend in Oregon says it hasn't stopped raining yet this year.
For what it's worth, the great State of Washington is split in twain by winter storm, with all passes over the Cascades from the Columbia River Gorge north to the Canadian border closed until further notice.
Don't know what situation is in Oregon or Canada, imagine pretty much the same.
The snow that fell Dec 26, alone with the thick ice that resulted on main roads, back streets and sidewalks (the last two most problematic) is finally gone, thanks to strong rains & slightly warmer weather. Right now it's raining steadily in the lowlands including Seattle, and snowing like a sonofabitch up in the mountains. Great for skiiers WHEN they get the roads plowed!
Pretty frequent for one or more passes to close for a day or more due to winter weather, but cannot recall last time ALL of the routes across the Cascades were shut at once.
In addition to sheer snowfall amounts (over two feet up in the passes, let alone the peaks) is severe avalanche danger.
My friend in Oregon says it hasn't stopped raining yet this year.
Well, they've done nothing to block or stop it from heading north to pester WA. Typical. (Same goes for BC.)
Just asked my Missus how many Taiwanese would fight if invaded. "Every single, last fucking one" was her assessment. " Whilst there would always be quislings and appeasers, it would be like Britain facing the Nazis. 14 year old girls on bikes as suicide bombers. It is their island home. Being invaded. Hitler thought we wouldn't fight cos he thought we were essentially the same people. He was very wrong."
Possibly a stupid question but is your wife Taiwanese?
She lived there a very long time. You can't be Taiwanese if you aren't of the correct ethnicity. Irony klaxon! I think she's hyperbolising FWIW. However. I do think people underestimate how despised the CCP is on Taiwan. Not the Chinese people. But the Party. It unites everyone. The pro independence folk despise them as potential colonisers. The dwindling number of pro unification folk despise them as Communists (they tend to be quite right wing). And the ambivalent despise them as both.
I've met a few Taiwanese people - mainly in Thailand (which they love)
One thing which has always struck me is how big and muscular the men are, in comparison to our stereotypical view of the Chinese as small and scrawny. Turns out that was always a question of diet and health. After 70 years of protein, young Taiwanese men are as big as Europeans
Yes, they despise the CCP, in my experience. But they still think of themselves as Chinese (after Taiwanese), I am not sure they would fight like the Okinawans against America, if Beijing came knocking
Well. We may find out soon. Incidentally. There is a lot of Polynesian genes in the Taiwanese. The native inhabitants, who were not wiped out are stocky and tend to fat, yet still fit. Think Samoan rugby players. There is a surprising amount of naturally curly hair on the island too. Even amongst the ethnically Han Chinese. They've been mixing for over 500 years after all.
Interesting!
I yearn to go to Taiwan, I hear it is fascinating, unexpectedly beautiful in places, and the food is great (I kind of expected the last, east Asian food is nearly always great)
But God I yearn to travel: anywhere. I just saw this tweet about the mad borders of central Asia and I thought: right, that's it, I'm going to Tajikstan before I get too old to do this stuff (central Asia is one of the few places I've never been)
"The Uzbek-Tajik-Kirgiz borders are some of the most cursed in the world. Tajiks have 3 exclaves trapped in foreign countries, while Uzbeks have 3 exclaves trapped in Kirgizstan."
..... And then I remembered Covid. Ah, feck. May it go away soon
Night night, PB
Get yourself to Taiwan. It is truly fascinating. Amazingly beautiful in parts. Grotesquely ugly in others. Bits of it are like stepping back into 17th Century China. Others are like Blade Runner. And they are your kind of people. Outspoken, bacchanalian and hot. Lovely beaches. By far the best Chinese cuisine. (Another tradition which pre-dates the Civil War). Sweaty LGBT techno clubs. Young ladies in bikinis selling betelnut by the roadside. Crook backed peasants in conical hats tending rice. The highest mountains east of the Himalayas. Rainforest. Street fist fights. A drinking culture. Sweat. Top class all you can eat buffets at every decent hotel. Pitch-by- pitch baseball betting. Punch ups in the Legislature. 24 hour shops everywhere. Even in villages. Tolerance. I could go on, but I need to check flights. God I miss that place and my youth!
Taiwan is the only place where the hotel staff asked me "would Sir be requiring company this evening?"
No one - and least of all me - is saying it would be a prefect plan. It would be a bloodbath. But force of numbers, just as they did on the Eastern front (and yes we are back to the 1940s) would win out. Eventually. The discrepancy is too big, even given the island analogy. Taiwan is not the UK of the 1940. It does not have a vastly superior fleet or a comparable air force. It is massively outnumbered.
Re the point re spies, the CCP places a great deal of emphasis on its historical actions and roots. As I said, I have no idea of any network - I find it totally bizarre you claim my words state there is a "complete network" of spies - what I said was that, given the above and their very successful usage in the Civil War plus the familial links between Taiwanese and mainland families, it would be bizarre if they did not deploy that tactic and therefore this is an unknown that could (or not) be significant.
The way to discourage Xi is to make it very openly clear we will use military force to protect Taiwan and be unambiguous. The sooner we do this, the better.
What I'm saying is you've continually shifted how China would invade. It started off with a lighting quick Paratrooper invasion and when I pointed out how completely infeasible it was it started morphing into this slow and steady approach.
If China wanted to flatten Taiwan they could do that. But that is not an invasion, that doesn't give them control. At some point they have to get troops there and you seem to be ignoring the huge challenges of doing so even without any outside intervention from the 7th fleet. You have to describe the practical realties of this to make your invasion scenario realistic. How far Xi will go includes him actually constructing the forces necessary. If he doesn't construct the necessary forces then the 7th fleet can pop back to Hawaii for some R&R for all it matters.
And you also ignore the issue with any invasion of Taiwan. A huge chunk of the Chinese economy relies on the flow of chips from Taiwan to China. Every day that a war continues without those chips flowing is a day that factories are shut down. Anything other than a 'quick' war would lead to the shattering of the Chinese economy. A "flattened" Taiwan, pounded by ballistic missiles says would in turn devastate China.
It is in fact Taiwan's trump card. In the face of an invasion they can threaten to blow the fabs.
"What I'm saying is you've continually shifted how China would invade. "
Again, misquoting / misinterpreting. What I said was that is what I heard had been discussed not how they would invade. There is a difference. And, again, I think it would be a bloodbath.
My main point (again) was that the Chinese would, eventually, win out if they were so determined and there was no outside help - even with huge casualties - because they have far more resources than Taiwan. It is a simple numbers game. Planes, rockets, tanks, ships, missles etc. Taiwan does not have an unlimited number of air defence, sea defence missles, pilots etc. Being an island also only gives you so much protection. The Allies expected huge casualties in their planned invasion of Japan. They were still prepare to go for it.
There is also the question of whether the Taiwanese population would want to fight to the death - maybe they would, who knows?
Re the economy, my guess (and I'm not in talks with him) is that Xi cares more about being the man who reunified China rather than an economic hit which, though painful, can be rebuilt over time. And he also knows - probably rightly - that at some point the West will forgive China. just as it has done with HK and elsewhere.
Anyone telling you there would be a paratroop led invasion of Taiwan is selling you a pup.
Read what Nigel said. It would be selectively targeted at seizing control of bases, not landing in the middle of Taipei.
The central point still stands - if China wants to do it enough, and the West doesn't intervene, then Taiwan will eventually lose.
Indeed, I reckon Taiwan would fold quite quickly if confronted by a real, determined Chinese attack. They don't want to commit national suicide, and in the end life under Beijing is not that bad (especially if you are ethnic Chinese, which they are)
They would lose freedom and free speech but they would otherwise carry on as now. Able to make money, live nicely, eat great food, watch lots of TV. Look at Hong Kong. You're fine and dandy, just don't get into politics
It is not like being overwhelmed by the Soviet Union and being condemned to icy penury
China will try to bully Taiwan into surrender, without actually firing a shot. That's what they did in Hong Kong, and it worked a treat
Hong Kong was already part of China and became part of China by peaceful handover by Treaty from us in 1997
And Hong Kong was the successful dress rehearsal
Lets put this another way. Is there a single PB-er who does not believe China will somehow re-absorb Taiwan in the next 30 years? As China becomes totally hegemonic in Asia, and probably the dominant superpower in the world?
Of course China will do this. The question then is just: When and How.
As another commenter said earlier, Around About Now is a pretty good bet (but still unlikely). America is roiled and weak, and highly unstable. The EU is shaken by Brexit and still can't put together a unified defence force. Putin is a willing ally, eager to help. China is globally dominant in trading terms, which won't always be the case as India also rises, and China ages
This is PB however, so I'd put money on China attempting to retake Taiwan in the second half of this decade
I think it's perfectly possible, but it's far from a sure thing.
I went to Taiwan for the first time in 2004. At that time, China (under Hu Jintao) was trying to blanket Taiwan in kindness. Air routes were opening up between the two countries (albeit chartered rather than scheduled), Taiwan removed many restrictions on PRC companies owning Taiwanese ones. Hong Kong (and Macau) suggested that China was serious about allowing one country to contain many systems. The two countries talked about forming joint bodies on trade, and the like, and (I felt) would inexorably draw closer and closer to each other.
Since then, things have rather changed.
Taiwan's leadership is of a new generation that doesn't have memories of living on the mainland. And they've seen the news from Hong Kong and reacted with horror. The promises of the PRC bosses don't seem so trustworthy any more.
And Xi's China is also very different. It is much, much more muscular. If others won't give China what is its right... then it will go out and use force to take it.
I no longer see any likelihood of a peaceful multi-decade long entanglement.
But China's job is hard. Taiwan is a fortified island that increasingly views the mainland with suspicion. This isn't some Iraqi army: this is a US/French equipped first world country with submarines, F16s, and a well trained army and air force that is 120 miles of ocean from China.
I don't know what will happen. Would we roll over for the EU if they sabre rattled and spent money on flash weapons? No we wouldn't. Taiwan might well be proud too.
"29 November 2020, 12.59pm Hi David I am afraid parts of our flat are still a bit of a tip and am keen to allow Lulu Lytle to get on with it. Can I possibly ask her to get in touch with you for approvals ? Many thanks and all best Boris "
...with the idea that Boris claims not to have known that Brownlow was funding renovations to the No 11 residence?
He claims he thought that Brownlow was managing the fund not funding it himself
It’s a theoretically possible answer, and difficult to disprove, but does engender a degree of scepticism
I like it! From you, I translate "does engender a degree of scepticism" as akin to "even I, Charles, think he's a lying toad".
I’ve known him for 25 years. I’m well aware that he’s a lying toad.
Please don't take this personally, but...
Between about 2015 and 2020, an awful lot of people in the corridors of power promoted BoJo, despite knowing that he was/is/will be a lying toad. Arguably earlier, though it was a bit different when he was a kind of court jester, rather than a kind of king. Mayor of London was actually a pretty good fit for his talents and weaknesses.
And yes, he got you-know-what sort of done, and yes, he saw off Corbyn. But one of the reasons that Brexit got constipated was that a scruffy blond gobshite wouldn't give his seal of approval for the May plan (highly flawed, way harder than many people would have liked, more tied to Europe than others wanted, but it would have put the whole thing to bed for a bit). And Jezza would have never got as close as he did to power without the Brexit effect. As with Howard Kirk in The History Man, Boris solved a problem he largely fomented, which isn't all that creditworthy.
And now we're all stuck with him for the foreseeable. Because if the plan was "use Boris's charms to get through 2019 and 2020, then dump him for someone less useless", it's not working. Because toads are very good at squatting.
And a lot of this should have been foreseeable by the people who put him there.
Oh cut the crocodile tear bullshit over the May plan.
The May plan was utterly horrendous and it dies a well deserved death. Boris's plan is from my perspective infinitely better.
The fact is that the May plan seems to be much mourned by the people who opposed Boris, not the people who backed him. The May plan seems to be mourned by the Remainers who rejected it and facilitated Boris's ascension.
Good riddance to May and her plan and thanks to everyone who facilitated a much better alternative. If there's any regrets it seems like it should be on your side of the fence not mine.
I have no idea where England go from here, the top 3 aren't good enough / have serious flaws in their technique. The recent alternatives have even weaker techniques.
I have no idea where England go from here, the top 3 aren't good enough / have serious flaws in their technique. The recent alternatives have even weaker techniques.
England should just randomly choose 8 or 9 county cricketers. They'd probably do just as well, or maybe even better, than most of the current team.
On topic mathematicians think they look clever for naming their variables after greek letter but they don't, they just look like they have an obsession with covid variants. Mathematicians, please name your variables based on what they mean like programmers do, we do it this way because we have deadlines.
No one - and least of all me - is saying it would be a prefect plan. It would be a bloodbath. But force of numbers, just as they did on the Eastern front (and yes we are back to the 1940s) would win out. Eventually. The discrepancy is too big, even given the island analogy. Taiwan is not the UK of the 1940. It does not have a vastly superior fleet or a comparable air force. It is massively outnumbered.
Re the point re spies, the CCP places a great deal of emphasis on its historical actions and roots. As I said, I have no idea of any network - I find it totally bizarre you claim my words state there is a "complete network" of spies - what I said was that, given the above and their very successful usage in the Civil War plus the familial links between Taiwanese and mainland families, it would be bizarre if they did not deploy that tactic and therefore this is an unknown that could (or not) be significant.
The way to discourage Xi is to make it very openly clear we will use military force to protect Taiwan and be unambiguous. The sooner we do this, the better.
What I'm saying is you've continually shifted how China would invade. It started off with a lighting quick Paratrooper invasion and when I pointed out how completely infeasible it was it started morphing into this slow and steady approach.
If China wanted to flatten Taiwan they could do that. But that is not an invasion, that doesn't give them control. At some point they have to get troops there and you seem to be ignoring the huge challenges of doing so even without any outside intervention from the 7th fleet. You have to describe the practical realties of this to make your invasion scenario realistic. How far Xi will go includes him actually constructing the forces necessary. If he doesn't construct the necessary forces then the 7th fleet can pop back to Hawaii for some R&R for all it matters.
And you also ignore the issue with any invasion of Taiwan. A huge chunk of the Chinese economy relies on the flow of chips from Taiwan to China. Every day that a war continues without those chips flowing is a day that factories are shut down. Anything other than a 'quick' war would lead to the shattering of the Chinese economy. A "flattened" Taiwan, pounded by ballistic missiles says would in turn devastate China.
It is in fact Taiwan's trump card. In the face of an invasion they can threaten to blow the fabs.
"What I'm saying is you've continually shifted how China would invade. "
Again, misquoting / misinterpreting. What I said was that is what I heard had been discussed not how they would invade. There is a difference. And, again, I think it would be a bloodbath.
My main point (again) was that the Chinese would, eventually, win out if they were so determined and there was no outside help - even with huge casualties - because they have far more resources than Taiwan. It is a simple numbers game. Planes, rockets, tanks, ships, missles etc. Taiwan does not have an unlimited number of air defence, sea defence missles, pilots etc. Being an island also only gives you so much protection. The Allies expected huge casualties in their planned invasion of Japan. They were still prepare to go for it.
There is also the question of whether the Taiwanese population would want to fight to the death - maybe they would, who knows?
Re the economy, my guess (and I'm not in talks with him) is that Xi cares more about being the man who reunified China rather than an economic hit which, though painful, can be rebuilt over time. And he also knows - probably rightly - that at some point the West will forgive China. just as it has done with HK and elsewhere.
Anyone telling you there would be a paratroop led invasion of Taiwan is selling you a pup.
Read what Nigel said. It would be selectively targeted at seizing control of bases, not landing in the middle of Taipei.
The central point still stands - if China wants to do it enough, and the West doesn't intervene, then Taiwan will eventually lose.
Indeed, I reckon Taiwan would fold quite quickly if confronted by a real, determined Chinese attack. They don't want to commit national suicide, and in the end life under Beijing is not that bad (especially if you are ethnic Chinese, which they are)
They would lose freedom and free speech but they would otherwise carry on as now. Able to make money, live nicely, eat great food, watch lots of TV. Look at Hong Kong. You're fine and dandy, just don't get into politics
It is not like being overwhelmed by the Soviet Union and being condemned to icy penury
China will try to bully Taiwan into surrender, without actually firing a shot. That's what they did in Hong Kong, and it worked a treat
Hong Kong was already part of China and became part of China by peaceful handover by Treaty from us in 1997
And Hong Kong was the successful dress rehearsal
Lets put this another way. Is there a single PB-er who does not believe China will somehow re-absorb Taiwan in the next 30 years? As China becomes totally hegemonic in Asia, and probably the dominant superpower in the world?
Of course China will do this. The question then is just: When and How.
As another commenter said earlier, Around About Now is a pretty good bet (but still unlikely). America is roiled and weak, and highly unstable. The EU is shaken by Brexit and still can't put together a unified defence force. Putin is a willing ally, eager to help. China is globally dominant in trading terms, which won't always be the case as India also rises, and China ages
This is PB however, so I'd put money on China attempting to retake Taiwan in the second half of this decade
Which is why as I have said before, Taiwan needs nuclear weapons.
However I don't believe China would be foolish enough to go beyond Taiwan to threaten Japan and South Korea, otherwise we would be in WW3
How do you know they don't have them?
Because they would loudly tell the world, to stop CCP threats
The only way they could get them is from America, the UK, France, or the USSR/Russia. Or Israel, NK, India or Pakistan
I can't see the motivation for any of these nations to hand over nukes to Taiwan, thus horribly destabilising Asia and enraging mainland China
They might well be trying, of course. In Taipei. Japan surely has the tech for nukes. Would Japan risk Chinese wrath by giving this to Taiwan? Tricky. Unlikely?
Taiwan has had nuclear reactors for quite a while. Which means that that they have a pile of plutonium.
Civil reactors, so high burn up - meaning lots of Plutonium 240. But, half life of every 7 years. So if you started at 20% or so (typical of civilian plant), 10% after 7 years, 5% after 14, 2.5% after 21..... And weapons grade plutonium is 7% or less (generally). The 240 decays to U-236 and can be removed chemically.
So with a bit of simple chemistry, the Taiwanese have a big pile of lovely plutonium. What to do with it?
In the 1940s, The Manhattan project had to kind of guess at getting implosion right. quite literally, they couldn't test if the implosion was accurate enough or not. These days, building x-cameras that take a zillion shots a second - which means they can take a super slow motion picture of an impassion through the metal - is standard science. So instead of a solid core (Christie) bomb, they could go straight to hollow, leviatated pits. Maybe a couple of hundred kilotons, right there.
They could probably go to asymmetric designs, two point implosion, miniaturised and all the rest - say the Swan device of 1956. But that is for smaller yields, and really is about making a primary for an H bomb (not so much explosive - high Z material - bad for H bombs)....
Which raises the really fun question - could they make an H-bob straight out of the gate? getting enough Tritium together might be an issue.. Though another path is possible - a multistage fission bomb, where a primary sets off a secondary fission bomb by radiation pressure. That was Ulam's original thought (though using neutron flux)
In any event
1) The Taiwanese have plutonium 2) With a bit of chemistry they have weapons grade plutonium 3) With a few non-nuclear explosions (lab stuff, really) they could construct a very, very efficient implosion system 4) They might be able to construct something bigger - H bomb, or multi-stage fission device
They probably can do something that weighs less than a ton and yields more than 100Kt. A number of them, at that.
Aside from having nuclear weapons as a MAD-style threat, what delivery options would Taiwan have? Aircraft? SRBM's? What do they have that could carry a warhead to the desired places in China and stand a decent chance of getting through?
UK is not far behind. Anyone under say about 50 has no idea what is coming down the tracks...
Many are predicting inflation around 6% for us later this year.
It’s only a year or so since I flagged the likelihood of a spell of inflation heading our way, with many here suggesting it wouldn’t happen because the economy was flat on its back in terms of demand. Even now, ‘official’ view from many experts is that we’ll have a brief spell of inflation but by 2023 we’ll be back down to 2% or so. Let’s see….
UK is not far behind. Anyone under say about 50 has no idea what is coming down the tracks...
Many are predicting inflation around 6% for us later this year.
It’s only a year or so since I flagged the likelihood of a spell of inflation heading our way, with many here suggesting it wouldn’t happen because the economy was flat on its back in terms of demand. Even now, ‘official’ view from many experts is that we’ll have a brief spell of inflation but by 2023 we’ll be back down to 2% or so. Let’s see….
There’s a lot of demand out there for consumer goods, and a lot of supply restrictions thanks to the pandemic and chip shortages.
Anyone who has bought a new car in the past couple of years, will probably find that they can sell it today for more than they paid for it, as dealers are quoting lead times in the many months.
Political instability is also affecting fuel prices, which then affect manufacturing and transport costs.
Then there’s what’s going on in parts of China at the moment, which looks likely to result in yet more factory shutdowns in the near future, with knock-on effects into the future.
Even if the pandemic burns itself out in the West by the end of this quarter, we probably have another year of disruption to come. Many of the societal changes bought on by the pandemic, such as increased remote working, are likely here to stay in the long term.
Lulu Lytle's going to regret ever doing the Johnson's flat, isn't she.
Fast track to Ratnerisation.
From what I’ve seen of the decoration she has ghastly taste.
She’ll be very happy to see her designs plastered all over the news. London isn’t exactly short of people with money who love this sort of stuff, even if most of us looking on think it’s garish. Her phone will be ringing off the hook tomorrow.
No one - and least of all me - is saying it would be a prefect plan. It would be a bloodbath. But force of numbers, just as they did on the Eastern front (and yes we are back to the 1940s) would win out. Eventually. The discrepancy is too big, even given the island analogy. Taiwan is not the UK of the 1940. It does not have a vastly superior fleet or a comparable air force. It is massively outnumbered.
Re the point re spies, the CCP places a great deal of emphasis on its historical actions and roots. As I said, I have no idea of any network - I find it totally bizarre you claim my words state there is a "complete network" of spies - what I said was that, given the above and their very successful usage in the Civil War plus the familial links between Taiwanese and mainland families, it would be bizarre if they did not deploy that tactic and therefore this is an unknown that could (or not) be significant.
The way to discourage Xi is to make it very openly clear we will use military force to protect Taiwan and be unambiguous. The sooner we do this, the better.
What I'm saying is you've continually shifted how China would invade. It started off with a lighting quick Paratrooper invasion and when I pointed out how completely infeasible it was it started morphing into this slow and steady approach.
If China wanted to flatten Taiwan they could do that. But that is not an invasion, that doesn't give them control. At some point they have to get troops there and you seem to be ignoring the huge challenges of doing so even without any outside intervention from the 7th fleet. You have to describe the practical realties of this to make your invasion scenario realistic. How far Xi will go includes him actually constructing the forces necessary. If he doesn't construct the necessary forces then the 7th fleet can pop back to Hawaii for some R&R for all it matters.
And you also ignore the issue with any invasion of Taiwan. A huge chunk of the Chinese economy relies on the flow of chips from Taiwan to China. Every day that a war continues without those chips flowing is a day that factories are shut down. Anything other than a 'quick' war would lead to the shattering of the Chinese economy. A "flattened" Taiwan, pounded by ballistic missiles says would in turn devastate China.
It is in fact Taiwan's trump card. In the face of an invasion they can threaten to blow the fabs.
"What I'm saying is you've continually shifted how China would invade. "
Again, misquoting / misinterpreting. What I said was that is what I heard had been discussed not how they would invade. There is a difference. And, again, I think it would be a bloodbath.
My main point (again) was that the Chinese would, eventually, win out if they were so determined and there was no outside help - even with huge casualties - because they have far more resources than Taiwan. It is a simple numbers game. Planes, rockets, tanks, ships, missles etc. Taiwan does not have an unlimited number of air defence, sea defence missles, pilots etc. Being an island also only gives you so much protection. The Allies expected huge casualties in their planned invasion of Japan. They were still prepare to go for it.
There is also the question of whether the Taiwanese population would want to fight to the death - maybe they would, who knows?
Re the economy, my guess (and I'm not in talks with him) is that Xi cares more about being the man who reunified China rather than an economic hit which, though painful, can be rebuilt over time. And he also knows - probably rightly - that at some point the West will forgive China. just as it has done with HK and elsewhere.
Anyone telling you there would be a paratroop led invasion of Taiwan is selling you a pup.
Read what Nigel said. It would be selectively targeted at seizing control of bases, not landing in the middle of Taipei.
The central point still stands - if China wants to do it enough, and the West doesn't intervene, then Taiwan will eventually lose.
Indeed, I reckon Taiwan would fold quite quickly if confronted by a real, determined Chinese attack. They don't want to commit national suicide, and in the end life under Beijing is not that bad (especially if you are ethnic Chinese, which they are)
They would lose freedom and free speech but they would otherwise carry on as now. Able to make money, live nicely, eat great food, watch lots of TV. Look at Hong Kong. You're fine and dandy, just don't get into politics
It is not like being overwhelmed by the Soviet Union and being condemned to icy penury
China will try to bully Taiwan into surrender, without actually firing a shot. That's what they did in Hong Kong, and it worked a treat
Hong Kong was already part of China and became part of China by peaceful handover by Treaty from us in 1997
And Hong Kong was the successful dress rehearsal
Lets put this another way. Is there a single PB-er who does not believe China will somehow re-absorb Taiwan in the next 30 years? As China becomes totally hegemonic in Asia, and probably the dominant superpower in the world?
Of course China will do this. The question then is just: When and How.
As another commenter said earlier, Around About Now is a pretty good bet (but still unlikely). America is roiled and weak, and highly unstable. The EU is shaken by Brexit and still can't put together a unified defence force. Putin is a willing ally, eager to help. China is globally dominant in trading terms, which won't always be the case as India also rises, and China ages
This is PB however, so I'd put money on China attempting to retake Taiwan in the second half of this decade
Which is why as I have said before, Taiwan needs nuclear weapons.
However I don't believe China would be foolish enough to go beyond Taiwan to threaten Japan and South Korea, otherwise we would be in WW3
How do you know they don't have them?
Because they would loudly tell the world, to stop CCP threats
The only way they could get them is from America, the UK, France, or the USSR/Russia. Or Israel, NK, India or Pakistan
I can't see the motivation for any of these nations to hand over nukes to Taiwan, thus horribly destabilising Asia and enraging mainland China
They might well be trying, of course. In Taipei. Japan surely has the tech for nukes. Would Japan risk Chinese wrath by giving this to Taiwan? Tricky. Unlikely?
Taiwan has had nuclear reactors for quite a while. Which means that that they have a pile of plutonium.
Civil reactors, so high burn up - meaning lots of Plutonium 240. But, half life of every 7 years. So if you started at 20% or so (typical of civilian plant), 10% after 7 years, 5% after 14, 2.5% after 21..... And weapons grade plutonium is 7% or less (generally). The 240 decays to U-236 and can be removed chemically.
So with a bit of simple chemistry, the Taiwanese have a big pile of lovely plutonium. What to do with it?
In the 1940s, The Manhattan project had to kind of guess at getting implosion right. quite literally, they couldn't test if the implosion was accurate enough or not. These days, building x-cameras that take a zillion shots a second - which means they can take a super slow motion picture of an impassion through the metal - is standard science. So instead of a solid core (Christie) bomb, they could go straight to hollow, leviatated pits. Maybe a couple of hundred kilotons, right there.
They could probably go to asymmetric designs, two point implosion, miniaturised and all the rest - say the Swan device of 1956. But that is for smaller yields, and really is about making a primary for an H bomb (not so much explosive - high Z material - bad for H bombs)....
Which raises the really fun question - could they make an H-bob straight out of the gate? getting enough Tritium together might be an issue.. Though another path is possible - a multistage fission bomb, where a primary sets off a secondary fission bomb by radiation pressure. That was Ulam's original thought (though using neutron flux)
In any event
1) The Taiwanese have plutonium 2) With a bit of chemistry they have weapons grade plutonium 3) With a few non-nuclear explosions (lab stuff, really) they could construct a very, very efficient implosion system 4) They might be able to construct something bigger - H bomb, or multi-stage fission device
They probably can do something that weighs less than a ton and yields more than 100Kt. A number of them, at that.
Aside from having nuclear weapons as a MAD-style threat, what delivery options would Taiwan have? Aircraft? SRBM's? What do they have that could carry a warhead to the desired places in China and stand a decent chance of getting through?
They stopped development of nuclear capabilities for the domestically produced F-CK aircraft years ago under US pressure.
You cannot seriously pretend every district council by-election is a referendum on Starmer, simply because you have a particular view on it.
Labour will be disappointed. Lib Dems will be delighted. But let's look at results over a period of time - there will be losses by all major parties to all other major parties in local by-elections this year based on both national trends and local circumstances.
It helped that the Lib Dem candidate was a former councillor for a previous ward in the area, he was the only candidate who lived in the ward, and runs a local pub.
Comments
Labour will be disappointed. Lib Dems will be delighted. But let's look at results over a period of time - there will be losses by all major parties to all other major parties in local by-elections this year based on both national trends and local circumstances.
And they are your kind of people. Outspoken, bacchanalian and hot.
Lovely beaches. By far the best Chinese cuisine. (Another tradition which pre-dates the Civil War).
Sweaty LGBT techno clubs.
Young ladies in bikinis selling betelnut by the roadside. Crook backed peasants in conical hats tending rice. The highest mountains east of the Himalayas. Rainforest. Street fist fights. A drinking culture. Sweat. Top class all you can eat buffets at every decent hotel. Pitch-by- pitch baseball betting. Punch ups in the Legislature. 24 hour shops everywhere. Even in villages. Tolerance.
I could go on, but I need to check flights.
God I miss that place and my youth!
Don't know what situation is in Oregon or Canada, imagine pretty much the same.
The snow that fell Dec 26, alone with the thick ice that resulted on main roads, back streets and sidewalks (the last two most problematic) is finally gone, thanks to strong rains & slightly warmer weather. Right now it's raining steadily in the lowlands including Seattle, and snowing like a sonofabitch up in the mountains. Great for skiiers WHEN they get the roads plowed!
Pretty frequent for one or more passes to close for a day or more due to winter weather, but cannot recall last time ALL of the routes across the Cascades were shut at once.
In addition to sheer snowfall amounts (over two feet up in the passes, let alone the peaks) is severe avalanche danger.
- New cases: 19,418
- Average: 9,772 (+1,978)
- Positivity rate: 7.9% (+1.3)
- In hospital: 328 (+38)
- In ICU: 53 (+3)
- New deaths: 6
- Average: 2 (+1)
I went to Taiwan for the first time in 2004. At that time, China (under Hu Jintao) was trying to blanket Taiwan in kindness. Air routes were opening up between the two countries (albeit chartered rather than scheduled), Taiwan removed many restrictions on PRC companies owning Taiwanese ones. Hong Kong (and Macau) suggested that China was serious about allowing one country to contain many systems. The two countries talked about forming joint bodies on trade, and the like, and (I felt) would inexorably draw closer and closer to each other.
Since then, things have rather changed.
Taiwan's leadership is of a new generation that doesn't have memories of living on the mainland. And they've seen the news from Hong Kong and reacted with horror. The promises of the PRC bosses don't seem so trustworthy any more.
And Xi's China is also very different. It is much, much more muscular. If others won't give China what is its right... then it will go out and use force to take it.
I no longer see any likelihood of a peaceful multi-decade long entanglement.
But China's job is hard. Taiwan is a fortified island that increasingly views the mainland with suspicion. This isn't some Iraqi army: this is a US/French equipped first world country with submarines, F16s, and a well trained army and air force that is 120 miles of ocean from China.
I don't know what will happen. Would we roll over for the EU if they sabre rattled and spent money on flash weapons? No we wouldn't. Taiwan might well be proud too.
The May plan was utterly horrendous and it dies a well deserved death. Boris's plan is from my perspective infinitely better.
The fact is that the May plan seems to be much mourned by the people who opposed Boris, not the people who backed him. The May plan seems to be mourned by the Remainers who rejected it and facilitated Boris's ascension.
Good riddance to May and her plan and thanks to everyone who facilitated a much better alternative. If there's any regrets it seems like it should be on your side of the fence not mine.
This team can't even bat shallow. Getting a pair to bat would be impressive, most batsmen seem more likely to get a pair instead.
Mark Wood
Jack Leach
Stuart Broad
James Anderson
None can really bat.
36/4.
Zak Crawley
Dawid Malan
Joe Root(c)
Ben Stokes
Jonny Bairstow
Jos Buttler(wk)
Besides maybe Root who is out for a Duck as it happens ... Can any of them either it seems?
4 down. This is just depressing.
Novak Djokovic: refugees hope tennis star’s hotel detention will cast light on their ‘torture’
Good luck with that!
It’s only a year or so since I flagged the likelihood of a spell of inflation heading our way, with many here suggesting it wouldn’t happen because the economy was flat on its back in terms of demand. Even now, ‘official’ view from many experts is that we’ll have a brief spell of inflation but by 2023 we’ll be back down to 2% or so. Let’s see….
Anyone who has bought a new car in the past couple of years, will probably find that they can sell it today for more than they paid for it, as dealers are quoting lead times in the many months.
Political instability is also affecting fuel prices, which then affect manufacturing and transport costs.
Then there’s what’s going on in parts of China at the moment, which looks likely to result in yet more factory shutdowns in the near future, with knock-on effects into the future.
Even if the pandemic burns itself out in the West by the end of this quarter, we probably have another year of disruption to come. Many of the societal changes bought on by the pandemic, such as increased remote working, are likely here to stay in the long term.
They’ve recently been developing intermedia te range missiles (1-2000 km range), but details are unclear.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-defence/taiwan-says-has-begun-mass-production-of-long-range-missile-idUSKBN2BH0IT