I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Now downgraded from two bottles of gin to “two measures” of gin, I see. £11.50 each on the menu could hardly have been a bottle.
Our expenses policy has a cap for evening meal, including no more than one alcoholic drink. Cheap food and a double craft G&T is one way to utilise the system.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
AIUI it was priced within the per head expenses allowance for such an event. I thought we came to that yesterday (?)
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
- “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”
Gonna be a bloodbath.
The local elections 'narrative' depends on what the seats did last time - which was 2018 and a approx. tie between Labour and Conservative nationwide.
However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.
Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
How is the Con Expectations Management team going to play it in the weeks leading up to it? I note the SCons are already rolling out the now-classic “we’re going to form a breakaway party”.
Is it that time of the electoral cycle already? I can’t see how rebranding a bunch of the permanently enraged, policy free mediocrities who are the current intake as ‘independent’ will make much difference though I would enjoy the irony. It also ignores that the SCons enjoyed their greatest success in decades with a media friendly leader who managed to triangulate the Orange men with dubious tattoos, centrist Unionists and going along with whatever CCHQ wanted (though the good baroness, not being stupid, realised that that had its natural ceiling and was off to pastures new). Of the current crop, Dr Gulhane looks to have the necessary taste for self publicity and greasy pole climbing to replicate Ruthism, though yet to be seen if he has the smarts.
Interested to see that Dr G had been the doc for Queens Park FC. At least that does not have the overtones of the Queen's XI FC (as IIRC expressed by another erstwhile Scon leadership contender).
Used to know the guy who dressed up as the Queens Park mascot. Cue jokes about donning a cartoon suit to ingratiate oneself with the public..
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?
'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'
As someone once said,
Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
I’m pretty sure (but must check) that there is a Bill working its way through Parliament on the former, while the new boundaries will be in place by July 2023 (the requirement for Commons approval has been removed).
Johnson is safe from a VoNC this year, irrespective of the May locals and/or very poor opinion polls. Rather less certain about 2023.
Agree, I think Sunak and others will want Boris Johnson to front the problems coming in 2022 then get the Major bounce close to a general election.
The only things that could force his exit is scandal(s) where he can bluster his way out or or a plethora of by election losses in safe Tory seats, places like Boston & Skegness, Christchurch, and Mansfield.
The Sunak strategy sounds plausible.
Tories losing Mansfield will be a surprise, even now. BB has had more time to dig himself in than the others. Would he step down as an MP to lead Notts Council? Doubt it.
Ashfield may be more interesting - not sure whether any deserting Tory voters would turn Independent or Lab. Independents running the Council have their Deputy Leader up before the beak around now +/- 6 months on various charges; he is a prick who could cause reputational damage.
There's an interesting little segment on Sky News from the last few days interviewing Lee Anderson about Fuel Prices, in a pub called the "Doghouse".
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
The reality of Brexit, while banal and irritating, is a lesser factor than the retrogressive, essentially eugenicist and frankly stupid worldview that underpins it.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordinated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
On the latest RedfieldWilton poll the redwall is largely gone anyway but the Tories still have a big lead in the South and East and there has even been a swing to the Tories since 2019 in Scotland and London, likely as Boris has not imposed extra Covid restrictions unlike Sturgeon and Khan.
Already the Conservative coalition is looking more Southern and less Northern than it was last time.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend
If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
Isn't that what happened - or am I missing something? The restaurant waived the minimum spend and charged only for what was actually bought, conditional on immediate payment.
I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
Of course it’s entirely normal. But people seem desperate to find a scandal.
I’m surprised for example that the civil service had to use an “emergency procedure”.
Although when I want to spend over my cap I have to email the COO. He usually emails an approval back in about 10 minutes. So I guess that counts as an “emergency procedure”
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?
'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'
As someone once said,
Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
I’m pretty sure (but must check) that there is a Bill working its way through Parliament on the former, while the new boundaries will be in place by July 2023 (the requirement for Commons approval has been removed).
Johnson is safe from a VoNC this year, irrespective of the May locals and/or very poor opinion polls. Rather less certain about 2023.
Agree, I think Sunak and others will want Boris Johnson to front the problems coming in 2022 then get the Major bounce close to a general election.
The only things that could force his exit is scandal(s) where he can bluster his way out or or a plethora of by election losses in safe Tory seats, places like Boston & Skegness, Christchurch, and Mansfield.
The Sunak strategy sounds plausible.
Tories losing Mansfield will be a surprise, even now. BB has had more time to dig himself in than the others. Would he step down as an MP to lead Notts Council? Doubt it.
Ashfield may be more interesting - not sure whether any deserting Tory voters would turn Independent or Lab. Independents running the Council have their Deputy Leader up before the beak around now +/- 6 months on various charges; he is a prick who could cause reputational damage.
There's an interesting little segment on Sky News from the last few days interviewing Lee Anderson about Fuel Prices, in a pub called the "Doghouse".
Here are the charges:
Harassment without Violence, and Driving without Due Care and Attention. There is also resisting arrest and assaulting a police officer, but that may have been dropped - losing track. The chap has a record of being 'passionate', as well as a prick.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
It's not about whether you've personally spent that kind of money, it's whether or not you recognise the corporate expenses account culture or not.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base to spend on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Because the base has nowhere to go and the Tories are losing the next election. You really, really don't understand this politics thing very well or how to win marginal voters.
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend
If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
Isn't that what happened - or am I missing something? The restaurant waived the minimum spend and charged only for what was actually bought, conditional on immediate payment.
I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
Of course it’s entirely normal. But people seem desperate to find a scandal.
I’m surprised for example that the civil service had to use an “emergency procedure”.
Although when I want to spend over my cap I have to email the COO. He usually emails an approval back in about 10 minutes. So I guess that counts as an “emergency procedure”
Perhaps you should get pre-approval for the next PB meet up.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or nowadays more accurately just favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the equivalent for educated youth of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's, with their Vespas and Italian outfits ; a modern and outward-looking influence setting itself in opposition to an inward one.
Now downgraded from two bottles of gin to “two measures” of gin, I see. £11.50 each on the menu could hardly have been a bottle.
They’ve also tweaked the wording on the wine - originally it had been reported as 3 bottles of X costing £153… now it is 3 bottle of X costing a TOTAL of £153
The difference between a £50 and a £150 bottle is quite important…
Times Radio @TimesRadio · 12m Professor Christina Pagel outlines her concerns as schools return: - big surge of Omicron coming for children - haven't done enough to mitigate spread in schools - number of vaccinated teenagers "not very high"
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base to spend on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Because the base has nowhere to go and the Tories are losing the next election. You really, really don't understand this politics thing very well or how to win marginal voters.
Of course the base has places to go, it could stay home, vote RefUK or even Labour or LD. Your strategy would turn a close result or narrow loss on the latest polls into a 1997 style annihilation as we would lose our base and still not win under 40s.
It is a myth pensioners are guaranteed to vote Tory, in 1997 for example Blair won over 65s
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base to spend on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Because the base has nowhere to go and the Tories are losing the next election. You really, really don't understand this politics thing very well or how to win marginal voters.
Because they need an expanded base, and promised to build one.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Yet the Tories still won majorities in 2015 and 2019, the latter by the biggest Tory landslide since 1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend
If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
Isn't that what happened - or am I missing something? The restaurant waived the minimum spend and charged only for what was actually bought, conditional on immediate payment.
I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
Of course it’s entirely normal. But people seem desperate to find a scandal.
I’m surprised for example that the civil service had to use an “emergency procedure”.
Although when I want to spend over my cap I have to email the COO. He usually emails an approval back in about 10 minutes. So I guess that counts as an “emergency procedure”
Perhaps you should get pre-approval for the next PB meet up.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are the motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or at least favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the more educated equivalent of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's ; modern and outward-looking influences rather than inward ones.
No, from my experience of being under 40 and living in remainer London I'm pretty sure most don't care about Brexit today, the main issue is the sense that the Tories see us as a piggy bank to continually raid to bribe old people for votes. From my social circle if guess around a third voted Tory in 2019, that number has fallen to almost 0 with only one or two left. Competence, lockdown hypocrisy and the NI rise have really damaged Boris among under 40s who voted for him last time and that was enough to get him an 80 seat majority. Without us he's done and this is sort of what I was talking about above, the 25% of the Tory coalition who voted remain are also more likely to be younger.
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Now downgraded from two bottles of gin to “two measures” of gin, I see. £11.50 each on the menu could hardly have been a bottle.
They’ve also tweaked the wording on the wine - originally it had been reported as 3 bottles of X costing £153… now it is 3 bottle of X costing a TOTAL of £153
The difference between a £50 and a £150 bottle is quite important…
The Guardian know what they are doing. There is a huge difference between £140 a head and £300 a head. Between a £50 bottle of wine and a £150 bottle. Between two gin and tonics and TWO BOTTLES of gin.
So they just try to ignore it and insist on calling it a "£3,000" lunch. That cost £1,400.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend
If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
Isn't that what happened - or am I missing something? The restaurant waived the minimum spend and charged only for what was actually bought, conditional on immediate payment.
I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
Of course it’s entirely normal. But people seem desperate to find a scandal.
I’m surprised for example that the civil service had to use an “emergency procedure”.
Although when I want to spend over my cap I have to email the COO. He usually emails an approval back in about 10 minutes. So I guess that counts as an “emergency procedure”
Perhaps you should get pre-approval for the next PB meet up.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are the motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or at least favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the more educated equivalent of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's ; modern and outward-looking influences rather than inward ones.
No, from my experience of being under 40 and living in remainer London I'm pretty sure most don't care about Brexit today, the main issue is the sense that the Tories see us as a piggy bank to continually raid to bribe old people for votes. From my social circle if guess around a third voted Tory in 2019, that number has fallen to almost 0 with only one or two left. Competence, lockdown hypocrisy and the NI rise have really damaged Boris among under 40s who voted for him last time and that was enough to get him an 80 seat majority. Without us he's done and this is sort of what I was talking about above, the 25% of the Tory coalition who voted remain are also more likely to be younger.
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
I can't agree, because from my own younger relatives and associates, a strong and angry sense of betrayal over Brexit and a lack of trust, seems to be linked to many other forms of lack of trust - generational, and finance and home-related, as you say, but also sleaze related more recently, too.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
You are elected by "your" voters but should govern for the whole country.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base to spend on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Because the base has nowhere to go and the Tories are losing the next election. You really, really don't understand this politics thing very well or how to win marginal voters.
Of course the base has places to go, it could stay home, vote RefUK or even Labour or LD. Your strategy would turn a close result or narrow loss on the latest polls into a 1997 style annihilation as we would lose our base and still not win under 40s.
It is a myth pensioners are guaranteed to vote Tory, in 1997 for example Blair won over 65s
How many seats are REFUK actually going to stand in? Will they even be a going concern in 2024 rather than just a poll option?
Labour won in 1997 by telling their core voters to get fucked and winning over millions of Tories like Big G and plenty of others you have deemed to be not Tories.
If the Tories fall back to a core vote strategy the best they can hope for is a 2005 style defeat.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Not the traditional view although it is one espoused by Lee Kwan Yew, former Prime Minister of Singapore and current star of Dominic Cummings' Substack meanderings.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are the motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or at least favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the more educated equivalent of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's ; modern and outward-looking influences rather than inward ones.
No, from my experience of being under 40 and living in remainer London I'm pretty sure most don't care about Brexit today, the main issue is the sense that the Tories see us as a piggy bank to continually raid to bribe old people for votes. From my social circle if guess around a third voted Tory in 2019, that number has fallen to almost 0 with only one or two left. Competence, lockdown hypocrisy and the NI rise have really damaged Boris among under 40s who voted for him last time and that was enough to get him an 80 seat majority. Without us he's done and this is sort of what I was talking about above, the 25% of the Tory coalition who voted remain are also more likely to be younger.
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
Actually on last night's Redfield poll Boris has already slashed the Labour lead in London from 16% in 2019 to just 5% now, helped by not imposing any more restrictions.
It is the redwall where the Tories have lost ground to Labour since 2019
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Yet the Tories still won majorities in 2015 and 2019, the latter by the biggest Tory landslide since 1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
Until one day all your voters died off.
The issue will come as MaxPB points out when people discover they are being abused to give sweeties (cheaper social care) to your voters and the 40-55 age voters switch away.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Not the traditional view although it is one espoused by Lee Kwan Yew, former Prime Minister of Singapore and current star of Dominic Cummings' Substack meanderings.
And his party is the most electorally successful in the developed world
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are the motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or at least favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the more educated equivalent of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's ; modern and outward-looking influences rather than inward ones.
No, from my experience of being under 40 and living in remainer London I'm pretty sure most don't care about Brexit today, the main issue is the sense that the Tories see us as a piggy bank to continually raid to bribe old people for votes. From my social circle if guess around a third voted Tory in 2019, that number has fallen to almost 0 with only one or two left. Competence, lockdown hypocrisy and the NI rise have really damaged Boris among under 40s who voted for him last time and that was enough to get him an 80 seat majority. Without us he's done and this is sort of what I was talking about above, the 25% of the Tory coalition who voted remain are also more likely to be younger.
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
I can't agree on, because from my own younger relatives and associates, a sense of betrayal over Brexit and a lack of trust, seems to be linked many other forms of lack of trust - generational, but also sleaze related more recently, too.
Again, no one is suggesting that the Tories can win a tidal wave of younger voters to get them a big majority. All they need to do is hold on to the ones they got last time. Brexit clearly wasn't a big motivator for the ~30% of under 40s they got in 2019. That number has fallen precipitously and is the major loss in Tory support at the moment. Winning these voters back will make or break the majority and if people like HYFUD have their way it's going to be a 2005 style defeat.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
The government governs, the monarch accepts what her elected government and Parliament decides, as has been largely the case since the English civil war and Glorious revolution.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
Spot the trend....
HYUFD can't and doesn't see the problem because they won
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Yet the Tories still won majorities in 2015 and 2019, the latter by the biggest Tory landslide since 1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
Until one day all your voters died off.
The issue will come as MaxPB points out when people discover they are being abused to give sweeties (cheaper social care) to your voters and the 40-55 age voters switch away.
They won't. The Tories have not won under 25s since 1983 for example but we have had plenty of Tory governments since.
By 40, when they have bought a property, most people start to consider voting Tory and by 65 when most people own a property, they almost always vote Tory.
Chasing voters under 35 for the Tories is largely a waste of time, they will almost always vote Labour regardless anyway even if the Tories win nationally
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Yet the Tories still won majorities in 2015 and 2019, the latter by the biggest Tory landslide since 1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
Until one day all your voters died off.
The issue will come as MaxPB points out when people discover they are being abused to give sweeties (cheaper social care) to your voters and the 40-55 age voters switch away.
They won't. The Tories have not won under 25s since 1983 for example but we have had plenty of Tory governments since.
By 40, when they have bought a property, most people start to consider voting Tory and by 65 when most people own a property, they almost always vote Tory.
Chasing voters under 35 for the Tories is largely a waste of time, they will almost always vote Labour regardless anyway even if the Tories win nationally
That worked fine when anyone with a reasonable job could save up and buy their first property by their thirties at the latest.
It doesn't work so well when the only people who can afford to do so are those with rich parents, and many of them kept waiting until their fifties or later to get their inheritance.
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Yet the Tories still won majorities in 2015 and 2019, the latter by the biggest Tory landslide since 1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
Until one day all your voters died off.
The issue will come as MaxPB points out when people discover they are being abused to give sweeties (cheaper social care) to your voters and the 40-55 age voters switch away.
They won't. The Tories have not won under 25s since 1983 for example but we have had plenty of Tory governments since.
By 40, when they have bought a property, most people start to consider voting Tory and by 65 when most people own a property, they almost always vote Tory.
Chasing voters under 35 for the Tories is largely a waste of time, they will almost always vote Labour regardless anyway even if the Tories win nationally
But it's marginal voters that win elections. Theresa May found this out in 2017 when the average age of Tory voters went up to 55, she lost under 40s voters completely and the Tories lost their majority.
How can you be in politics and not understand how marginal voting works with a FPTP system?
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are the motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or at least favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the more educated equivalent of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's ; modern and outward-looking influences rather than inward ones.
No, from my experience of being under 40 and living in remainer London I'm pretty sure most don't care about Brexit today, the main issue is the sense that the Tories see us as a piggy bank to continually raid to bribe old people for votes. From my social circle if guess around a third voted Tory in 2019, that number has fallen to almost 0 with only one or two left. Competence, lockdown hypocrisy and the NI rise have really damaged Boris among under 40s who voted for him last time and that was enough to get him an 80 seat majority. Without us he's done and this is sort of what I was talking about above, the 25% of the Tory coalition who voted remain are also more likely to be younger.
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
I can't agree on, because from my own younger relatives and associates, a sense of betrayal over Brexit and a lack of trust, seems to be linked many other forms of lack of trust - generational, but also sleaze related more recently, too.
Again, no one is suggesting that the Tories can win a tidal wave of younger voters to get them a big majority. All they need to do is hold on to the ones they got last time. Brexit clearly wasn't a big motivator for the ~30% of under 40s they got in 2019. That number has fallen precipitously and is the major loss in Tory support at the moment. Winning these voters back will make or break the majority and if people like HYFUD have their way it's going to be a 2005 style defeat.
Well, they have a big problem there. Part of that cohort will be white working-class voters who still support the Brexit/populist agenda, and another may have been broadly business-minded remainers who were frightened of Corbyn. The Tory coalition is creaking, and the biggest danger of all to it is a more durable, anti-Tory and anti-sleaze coalition, as has been on show for the last few months.
Mr. HYUFD, plenty of people reaching 40 don't have their own home.
50% of those 35-44 own a property with a mortgage compared to only 28% who privately rent. Over 35s are the age group who might first start to consider voting Tory as they did in 2015 and 2019 when the average age of voting Tory not Labour was 35 and 39, even if they did not in 2017 when it was 47.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
It's not about whether you've personally spent that kind of money, it's whether or not you recognise the corporate expenses account culture or not.
Though once you dig down, how many do recognise that culture? Public sector professionals don't get those sort of goodies, even at the top of the tree. And people further down the ladder certainly don't.
Whatever the rights and wrongs, the slice of society who know about corporate expense accounts is pretty small. I suspect a lot of people would be a lot crosser (cf MPs expenses) if they did.
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
You did not even vote for the Clown in 2019 when he won a landslide!
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
Spot the trend....
HYUFD can't and doesn't see the problem because they won
He also cannot accept that a large number of people held their nose and voted Tory because they hated Corbyn, not because they loved The Clown. Labour is maybe no longer the threat to those who are patriotic. That is clearly the detox that Starmer is attempting. It is a sensible strategy.
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
You did not even vote for the Clown in 2019 when he won a landslide!
Correct. It was a risk. I certainly did not want a Labour government under Corbyn, but I was also not going to endorse someone else who I considered completely unfit for office. I have been vindicated. Boris Johnson is a clown and unfit for office. It is what I have said all along, but it gives me little pleasure to be right.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Ten meals.
It was almost all spent on wine and gin, just an excuse for a piss up at public expense.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
These are the motivators, but the problem for the Tories is that Brexit just hasn't gone away as a cultural 'brand' or identity. Remain, or at least favouring closer ties with Europe again, has taken on the more educated equivalent of what Mods originally meant to working-class youth in the earlier 1960's ; modern and outward-looking influences rather than inward ones.
No, from my experience of being under 40 and living in remainer London I'm pretty sure most don't care about Brexit today, the main issue is the sense that the Tories see us as a piggy bank to continually raid to bribe old people for votes. From my social circle if guess around a third voted Tory in 2019, that number has fallen to almost 0 with only one or two left. Competence, lockdown hypocrisy and the NI rise have really damaged Boris among under 40s who voted for him last time and that was enough to get him an 80 seat majority. Without us he's done and this is sort of what I was talking about above, the 25% of the Tory coalition who voted remain are also more likely to be younger.
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
I can't agree on, because from my own younger relatives and associates, a sense of betrayal over Brexit and a lack of trust, seems to be linked many other forms of lack of trust - generational, but also sleaze related more recently, too.
Again, no one is suggesting that the Tories can win a tidal wave of younger voters to get them a big majority. All they need to do is hold on to the ones they got last time. Brexit clearly wasn't a big motivator for the ~30% of under 40s they got in 2019. That number has fallen precipitously and is the major loss in Tory support at the moment. Winning these voters back will make or break the majority and if people like HYFUD have their way it's going to be a 2005 style defeat.
Well, they have a big problem there. Part of that cohort will be white working-class voters who still support the Brexit/populist agenda, and another may have been broadly business-minded remainers who were frightened of Corbyn. The Tory coalition is creaking, and the biggest danger of all to it is a more durable, anti-Tory and anti-sleaze coalition, as has been on show for the last few months.
The Conservatives thought they could add older WWC voters to their coalition without it costing them. That worked in 2019, but there's no reason to think it will work longer-term. If politics is like chess, you do have to think how your opponent will respond to your move.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
It's not about whether you've personally spent that kind of money, it's whether or not you recognise the corporate expenses account culture or not.
Though once you dig down, how many do recognise that culture? Public sector professionals don't get those sort of goodies, even at the top of the tree. And people further down the ladder certainly don't.
Whatever the rights and wrongs, the slice of society who know about corporate expense accounts is pretty small. I suspect a lot of people would be a lot crosser (cf MPs expenses) if they did.
Exactly. It's one thing taking your daughter out for her 21st to a verty special restaurant but another having a free 21st birthday dinner every week or fortnight, so to speak.
It also is profoundly corrupt, because it cannot be distinguished prima facie from actual corruption. One has to be seen not to be corrupt. I'm reminded of the time a client sent a box of chocolates as a thank you, when my employer had a rigid no goodies rule. I sought advice and was told to put them in the staff tearoom - and not to have any myself.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Ten meals.
It was almost all spent on wine and gin, just an excuse for a piss up at public expense.
I woiuldn't have minded so much if it had been spent on UK produce - some Buckfast would have done perfectly well.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Yes, on this he is completely and utterly wrong. An MP is elected to represent all their constituents, whatever their views. A government is elected to govern in what they consider to be the best interest of the whole country.
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
You did not even vote for the Clown in 2019 when he won a landslide!
PS. Good to see even you are referring to him by this name lol!
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
You did not even vote for the Clown in 2019 when he won a landslide!
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Ten meals.
Yeah, I thought about that after my post.
I shall go and banish myself to Charles' school of etiquette and table-setting.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I lived in London for 5 years. There are Michelin star restaurants that cost less than £140 a head. You're a bit out of touch on this one.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Yes, on this he is completely and utterly wrong. An MP is elected to represent all their constituents, whatever their views. A government is elected to govern in what they consider to be the best interest of the whole country.
Which government ever governed in the interests of their opposition's voters? Certainly not Thatcher or Boris or Cameron who Labour voters despised, nor Brown who Tory voters despised. May and Major were less hated but they still put Tory voters views ahead of Labour voters.
Maybe Blair 1997 to 2001 is the closest to it but even then anti EU and pro hunting Tories hated him and after Iraq many of even his own voters hated him too
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend
If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
Isn't that what happened - or am I missing something? The restaurant waived the minimum spend and charged only for what was actually bought, conditional on immediate payment.
I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
Of course it’s entirely normal. But people seem desperate to find a scandal.
I’m surprised for example that the civil service had to use an “emergency procedure”.
Although when I want to spend over my cap I have to email the COO. He usually emails an approval back in about 10 minutes. So I guess that counts as an “emergency procedure”
Perhaps you should get pre-approval for the next PB meet up.
I don’t think I could afford your drinking habit!
Yet you think 1400 for a lunch is petty cash, methinks you dost protest too much.
Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.
Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
Though of course the media will jump all over public spending made on credit cards, even if it saves the taxpayer money. (Part of my day job is answering FOIs)
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I lived in London for 5 years. There are Michelin star restaurants that cost less than £140 a head. You're a bit out of touch on this one.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Yes, on this he is completely and utterly wrong. An MP is elected to represent all their constituents, whatever their views. A government is elected to govern in what they consider to be the best interest of the whole country.
Which government ever governed in the interests of their opposition voters? Certainly not Thatcher or Boris or Cameron who Labour voters despised, nor Brown who Tory voters despised.
Maybe Blair 1997 to 2001 is the closest to it but even then anti EU and pro hunting Tories hated him and after Iraq many of even his own voters hated him too
Well, I may be dancing on pinheads, but I respectfully suggest that you perhaps misunderstand one of the principles of our (admittedly flawed) system of democracy. MPs are elected to represent ALL their constituents. That does not mean that they need to reflect all their views as that would be impossible. I doubt very much whether you could get any of the people you mention to publicly support your view. It is counter to years of principle and practice of our system. To suggest that individuals could be ignored because they voted for another party is pretty monstrous and leads in a very unpleasant direction.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
Exactly , some quite obscene people on here who like to think they are special because they were handed it on a plate by rich parents etc and witter on about how spending thousands on a meal , using poor people's money as well, is somehow very normal and admirable. They are amazed that they went to such a cheap joint rather than thinking the same arseholes that took £20 a week off the poorest think nothing of living high on the hog at public expense. Nothing worse than a rich person looking down their nose at the poor, it is common on here.
- “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”
Gonna be a bloodbath.
The local elections 'narrative' depends on what the seats did last time - which was 2018 and a approx. tie between Labour and Conservative nationwide.
However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.
Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
How is the Con Expectations Management team going to play it in the weeks leading up to it? I note the SCons are already rolling out the now-classic “we’re going to form a breakaway party”.
Is it that time of the electoral cycle already? I can’t see how rebranding a bunch of the permanently enraged, policy free mediocrities who are the current intake as ‘independent’ will make much difference though I would enjoy the irony. It also ignores that the SCons enjoyed their greatest success in decades with a media friendly leader who managed to triangulate the Orange men with dubious tattoos, centrist Unionists and going along with whatever CCHQ wanted (though the good baroness, not being stupid, realised that that had its natural ceiling and was off to pastures new). Of the current crop, Dr Gulhane looks to have the necessary taste for self publicity and greasy pole climbing to replicate Ruthism, though yet to be seen if he has the smarts.
Interested to see that Dr G had been the doc for Queens Park FC. At least that does not have the overtones of the Queen's XI FC (as IIRC expressed by another erstwhile Scon leadership contender).
Used to know the guy who dressed up as the Queens Park mascot. Cue jokes about donning a cartoon suit to ingratiate oneself with the public..
While on the topic of Scons I must admit I had missed this about Prof Tomkins rebrnading himself as an independent - hadn't realised he was joining Mr Fraser in this.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Yes, on this he is completely and utterly wrong. An MP is elected to represent all their constituents, whatever their views. A government is elected to govern in what they consider to be the best interest of the whole country.
Which government ever governed in the interests of their opposition voters? Certainly not Thatcher or Boris or Cameron who Labour voters despised, nor Brown who Tory voters despised.
Maybe Blair 1997 to 2001 is the closest to it but even then anti EU and pro hunting Tories hated him and after Iraq many of even his own voters hated him too
Well, I may be dancing on pinheads, but I respectfully suggest that you perhaps misunderstand one of the principles of our (admittedly flawed) system of democracy. MPs are elected to represent ALL their constituents. That does not mean that they need to reflect all their views as that would be impossible. I doubt very much whether you could get any of the people you mention to publicly support your view. It is counter to years of principle and practice of our system. To suggest that individuals could be ignored because they voted for another party is pretty monstrous and leads in a very unpleasant direction.
You do casework for opposition party voters in your constituency if an MP, you do not put their views ahead of the views of the voters who elected you however
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Ten meals.
It was almost all spent on wine and gin, just an excuse for a piss up at public expense.
I woiuldn't have minded so much if it had been spent on UK produce - some Buckfast would have done perfectly well.
The thing that gets me Carnyx are the contemptible people on here who think it is perfectly acceptable.
An amazing and troubling prog on R4 yesterday, Pride or Prejudice, indicated that for woke modernists almost no literature of the past survives unscathed, and that the idea that the past (especially the past of white male novelists) is another and fantastic country we are privileged to explore with open minds is absolutely forbidden.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
That was still the case in 2019 but the Tories still won a landslide.
Because there was there was very little anti-Tory co-ordination and co-operation, whereas the Tory Party and the Brexit Party co-ordiated excellently. I don't think that will be the case next time - and especially as the recent by-elections have shown.
The average age voters voted Tory not Labour was 35 in 2015, 39 in 2019, not a huge difference
So 4 years after the last election, the typical Tory vote was 4 years older.
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Yet the Tories still won majorities in 2015 and 2019, the latter by the biggest Tory landslide since 1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
Until one day all your voters died off.
The issue will come as MaxPB points out when people discover they are being abused to give sweeties (cheaper social care) to your voters and the 40-55 age voters switch away.
They won't. The Tories have not won under 25s since 1983 for example but we have had plenty of Tory governments since.
By 40, when they have bought a property, most people start to consider voting Tory and by 65 when most people own a property, they almost always vote Tory.
Chasing voters under 35 for the Tories is largely a waste of time, they will almost always vote Labour regardless anyway even if the Tories win nationally
But it's marginal voters that win elections. Theresa May found this out in 2017 when the average age of Tory voters went up to 55, she lost under 40s voters completely and the Tories lost their majority.
How can you be in politics and not understand how marginal voting works with a FPTP system?
Is it marginal voters that win elections or are turnout differentials more influential? I think the latter. CP will more likely fail at next GE through its voters not voting that them converting to other parties I suspect.
"It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
You did not even vote for the Clown in 2019 when he won a landslide!
You admit he is a clown? Progress!
We will know he has completed the journey of discovery when he capitalises the T; i.e. "The Clown" . After all, there are a number of clowns in politics and public life, but there really can only be one who deserves the full title!
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Ten meals.
It was almost all spent on wine and gin, just an excuse for a piss up at public expense.
I woiuldn't have minded so much if it had been spent on UK produce - some Buckfast would have done perfectly well.
The thing that gets me Carnyx are the contemptible people on here who think it is perfectly acceptable.
"It wasn't £3000, the Graudain is lying! It was a very reasonable £1500"
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
Exactly , some quite obscene people on here who like to think they are special because they were handed it on a plate by rich parents etc and witter on about how spending thousands on a meal , using poor people's money as well, is somehow very normal and admirable. They are amazed that they went to such a cheap joint rather than thinking the same arseholes that took £20 a week off the poorest think nothing of living high on the hog at public expense. Nothing worse than a rich person looking down their nose at the poor, it is common on here.
I am sure you can always get a fulfilling meal for several people from the vast quantity of chips on your shoulder.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
Charles trying to make out that if you do not live in Mayfair or Park Lane like him then you must be some kind of dummy and unable to comprehend the price of mince in London.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Yes, on this he is completely and utterly wrong. An MP is elected to represent all their constituents, whatever their views. A government is elected to govern in what they consider to be the best interest of the whole country.
Which government ever governed in the interests of their opposition voters? Certainly not Thatcher or Boris or Cameron who Labour voters despised, nor Brown who Tory voters despised.
Maybe Blair 1997 to 2001 is the closest to it but even then anti EU and pro hunting Tories hated him and after Iraq many of even his own voters hated him too
Well, I may be dancing on pinheads, but I respectfully suggest that you perhaps misunderstand one of the principles of our (admittedly flawed) system of democracy. MPs are elected to represent ALL their constituents. That does not mean that they need to reflect all their views as that would be impossible. I doubt very much whether you could get any of the people you mention to publicly support your view. It is counter to years of principle and practice of our system. To suggest that individuals could be ignored because they voted for another party is pretty monstrous and leads in a very unpleasant direction.
You do casework for opposition party voters in your constituency if an MP, you do not put their views ahead of the views of the voters who elected you however
There's still a line which looks like it's being crossed here.
The traditional model was to govern in the interests of the whole nation, just disagreeing about how that interest was served. So Conservative governments and councils built council houses and Labour governments accepted that the country needed the money from the city.
We do seem to be moving to a situation where the target is to benefit your side at the expense at the other lot as a conscious end in itself.
Maybe it's our fault as voters for changing the mental balance of "me" and "us". But it is a change, and it's not one I like- whoever is doing it.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I think it’s more people who are familiar with London prices vs not
I really, really doubt that. I've not eaten out much in London in the last ten years, but I doubt prices have gone up that much.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
Ten meals.
It was almost all spent on wine and gin, just an excuse for a piss up at public expense.
I woiuldn't have minded so much if it had been spent on UK produce - some Buckfast would have done perfectly well.
The thing that gets me Carnyx are the contemptible people on here who think it is perfectly acceptable.
"It wasn't £3000, the Graudain is lying! It was a very reasonable £1500"
Exactly , f***ing halfwits, most of the idiots who voted for these crooks will be lucky to earn that in a month. No wonder the Hoorays on here are laughing their socks off and saying it is very reasonable.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
Only to the hooray Tories on here, to any normal person it is a fortune to be swilling at lunch time just to benefit a donor. Another £5 off UC Rishi please , we need better lunches
Yeah, it's one of those ones where I think it depends on how wealthy you are. I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
Exactly , some quite obscene people on here who like to think they are special because they were handed it on a plate by rich parents etc and witter on about how spending thousands on a meal , using poor people's money as well, is somehow very normal and admirable. They are amazed that they went to such a cheap joint rather than thinking the same arseholes that took £20 a week off the poorest think nothing of living high on the hog at public expense. Nothing worse than a rich person looking down their nose at the poor, it is common on here.
I am sure you can always get a fulfilling meal for several people from the vast quantity of chips on your shoulder.
On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Essentially by focusing on the cultural / taxation stuff.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Possibly the main problem for the Tories in the South, and also increasingly in some rural and market town-type areas outside the South, is that Brexit has become a cultural touchstone for many younger, reasonably educated voters. They absolutely hate it and everything it represents, which keeps them at an enormous distance from the current Tory party.
Not necessarily, I think tuition fees and taxes on working people are the motivators for people under 40. Stuff like the big NI rise has hurt the most, loads of younger people have recognised it as a tax on young people to pay for old age care.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
Why would we tax our base more to cut tax on people who will almost always vote Labour anyway?
Governing for the nation rather than the party?
We are elected to govern for our voters primarily, they are who put us in power in the first place not Labour voters
Isn't that profoundly subversive of the Constitution?
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Yes, on this he is completely and utterly wrong. An MP is elected to represent all their constituents, whatever their views. A government is elected to govern in what they consider to be the best interest of the whole country.
Which government ever governed in the interests of their opposition voters? Certainly not Thatcher or Boris or Cameron who Labour voters despised, nor Brown who Tory voters despised.
Maybe Blair 1997 to 2001 is the closest to it but even then anti EU and pro hunting Tories hated him and after Iraq many of even his own voters hated him too
Well, I may be dancing on pinheads, but I respectfully suggest that you perhaps misunderstand one of the principles of our (admittedly flawed) system of democracy. MPs are elected to represent ALL their constituents. That does not mean that they need to reflect all their views as that would be impossible. I doubt very much whether you could get any of the people you mention to publicly support your view. It is counter to years of principle and practice of our system. To suggest that individuals could be ignored because they voted for another party is pretty monstrous and leads in a very unpleasant direction.
You do casework for opposition party voters in your constituency if an MP, you do not put their views ahead of the views of the voters who elected you however
No no no! I suspect you would like to be considered as a prospective parliamentary candidate? An MP has a duty to properly consider the problems of all constituents and do what they, as the elected MP (with the delegated power of the constituency) consider to be correct based on their sound judgement. If you do not consider this to be a first principle then you are not suitable to be an MP.
Comments
Con 283
Lab 277
Which -politics aside - rather buries that point.
For example, many of those southern, wealthier Remain-voting Tories are likely to have kids in private school so you make a big song and dance about Labour threatening the tax breaks, their private schools etc. You also bang home the message Labour will put up your taxes more;
Then you get tougher on immigration. Yes, many of those voters will like to say they are liberals but ask them how many would like refugees housed in their areas and I think that tolerance would lessen. The likes of Patel does the dirty work for them of not letting immigrants in while allowing their consciences to be clean.
Then you don't build houses in their areas and say "protect the green belt" and warble on about how much you care for the environment (while adapting technical measures that ease the transition burden).
Tories losing Mansfield will be a surprise, even now. BB has had more time to dig himself in than the others. Would he step down as an MP to lead Notts Council? Doubt it.
Ashfield may be more interesting - not sure whether any deserting Tory voters would turn Independent or Lab. Independents running the Council have their Deputy Leader up before the beak around now +/- 6 months on various charges; he is a prick who could cause reputational damage.
There's an interesting little segment on Sky News from the last few days interviewing Lee Anderson about Fuel Prices, in a pub called the "Doghouse".
Already the Conservative coalition is looking more Southern and less Northern than it was last time.
If the Tories want to win young people back they will need to start cutting working age taxes and put up taxes on assets and pension income, potentially cut the state pension for people in the higher rate tax bracket.
I've never spent that much per person on a meal and I imagine the same is true for most of the country.
I’m surprised for example that the civil service had to use an “emergency procedure”.
Although when I want to spend over my cap I have to email the COO. He usually emails an approval back in about 10 minutes. So I guess that counts as an “emergency procedure”
Harassment without Violence, and Driving without Due Care and Attention. There is also resisting arrest and assaulting a police officer, but that may have been dropped - losing track.
The chap has a record of being 'passionate', as well as a prick.
https://www.chad.co.uk/news/crime/trial-date-postponed-for-deputy-leader-of-ashfield-council-3228789
That's a huge difference, as it tells me the Tory party are getting minuscule numbers of voters under 35 years old.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
Now you get cancelled for the title of articles from 1957.
The difference between a £50 and a £150 bottle is quite important…
Times Radio
@TimesRadio
·
12m
Professor Christina Pagel outlines her concerns as schools return:
- big surge of Omicron coming for children
- haven't done enough to mitigate spread in schools
- number of vaccinated teenagers "not very high"
It is a myth pensioners are guaranteed to vote Tory, in 1997 for example Blair won over 65s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_White_Negro
Has anyone read it? I haven't.
But there are many other less well-known examples of such progress.
https://twitter.com/JoeHasell/status/1478301352451350528?s=20
And not all of them repressive dictatorships - indeed some went from dictatorship to democracy.
1987, so the Tories do not need many voters under 35 at all
The next leader needs to have a strategy to win voters aged between 30 and 50, right now that's the part of society that has deserted the Tories despite voting Tory in 2019 where Brexit was a much bigger issue.
Look at it this way: if the average salary in London is ~40k per year, then you're looking at a nearly a fortnight's salary for one meal. For many people that's not even a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
Heck, I've never spent anywhere near that much on a meal - and I doubt my life's the worse for it.
So they just try to ignore it and insist on calling it a "£3,000" lunch. That cost £1,400.
As @MaxPB says, it is about the expenses system.
Labour won in 1997 by telling their core voters to get fucked and winning over millions of Tories like Big G and plenty of others you have deemed to be not Tories.
If the Tories fall back to a core vote strategy the best they can hope for is a 2005 style defeat.
It is the redwall where the Tories have lost ground to Labour since 2019
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
The issue will come as MaxPB points out when people discover they are being abused to give sweeties (cheaper social care) to your voters and the 40-55 age voters switch away.
Not to mention the divine mandate of the Sovereign? I don't see anywhere in the Coronation service where it said that QEII had to rule with fear and favour in the interest of W.S.Churchill's party, or wqhoever was elected PM at the time.
Crown in Parliament is the British constitution
By 40, when they have bought a property, most people start to consider voting Tory and by 65 when most people own a property, they almost always vote Tory.
Chasing voters under 35 for the Tories is largely a waste of time, they will almost always vote Labour regardless anyway even if the Tories win nationally
It doesn't work so well when the only people who can afford to do so are those with rich parents, and many of them kept waiting until their fifties or later to get their inheritance.
The idea that Mailer hasn't been on people's cancellation lists since he was in his prime could only be held by the ignorant and/or the overwrought.
What this means is that any sensible right of centre person such as myself, who cares about having a credible right of centre party of government, rather than a populist government led by a clown, needs to either stay at home or vote for another party. The Clown needs to be deposed.
How can you be in politics and not understand how marginal voting works with a FPTP system?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/articles/livinglonger/changesinhousingtenureovertime
Targeting voters under 35 is largely a waste of time for the Tories given they even voted for Ed Miliband and Corbyn when the Tories won majorities
Whatever the rights and wrongs, the slice of society who know about corporate expense accounts is pretty small. I suspect a lot of people would be a lot crosser (cf MPs expenses) if they did.
It also is profoundly corrupt, because it cannot be distinguished prima facie from actual corruption. One has to be seen not to be corrupt. I'm reminded of the time a client sent a box of chocolates as a thank you, when my employer had a rigid no goodies rule. I sought advice and was told to put them in the staff tearoom - and not to have any myself.
I shall go and banish myself to Charles' school of etiquette and table-setting.
You're a bit out of touch on this one.
Maybe Blair 1997 to 2001 is the closest to it but even then anti EU and pro hunting Tories hated him and after Iraq many of even his own voters hated him too
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19812977.adam-tomkins-scottish-labour-tories-must-divorce-london-parties/
I think his piece must be this one but it's paywalled.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19812025.nationalist-unionist-three-ways-break-stalemate-scottish-politics/
Usual moan about nationalist ascendancy, as if it weren't a minority government, and a demand to have only one unionist candidate in each seat.
The UK did not...
The traditional model was to govern in the interests of the whole nation, just disagreeing about how that interest was served. So Conservative governments and councils built council houses and Labour governments accepted that the country needed the money from the city.
We do seem to be moving to a situation where the target is to benefit your side at the expense at the other lot as a conscious end in itself.
Maybe it's our fault as voters for changing the mental balance of "me" and "us". But it is a change, and it's not one I like- whoever is doing it.