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I’m not convinced by Liz Truss – the big CON leader betting mover – politicalbetting.com
I’m not convinced by Liz Truss – the big CON leader betting mover – politicalbetting.com
The Betdata.io chart shows the movements on Betfair in the next CON leader betting and as can be seen the big mover has been Liz Truss – who is now Foreign Secretary.
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Sell Truss: yes, she's popular among Conservative members, but like with Sunak, it's far from clear that she has any base among MPs. If she makes it to the final two, she's in with a good shout. But I reckon it's far from certain she'll be in the top two.
Sell Hunt: largely unknown among the general public, not loved by his parliamentary colleagues.
So... who does that leave?
Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet. And if they are an MP they could be on the backbenches or in a very junior role.
Ultimately, we don't know when the election will be, and that makes everyone on that list (with the possible exception of Starmer) a sell. Johnson could be PM in 2044, before handing off to his son and heir. (Unlikely, I know.) He could lose to Starmer in 2024.
But I think the smart money is on him - like most politicians - hanging on as long as he can.
Sell the favorites.
Agree with the conclusion, but think better to skip this market.
1) uncertain when payout will come.
But 2) is more important; whenever there is a vacancy for Tory leader, there is likely to be easy money on candidates whose odds are obviously wrong. So just wait. E.g. Leadsom last time.
Is there now a tiny bit of value in Starmer as next PM, at 8/1?
The issue on othering isn’t discrimination. That happens the whole time through tax or whatever.
The issue is that it is the public identification of a group and that the statement that they are different and have fewer rights than the mainstream; that they are “other” from the mainstream. It’s been most prominent in racial politics - think of Native American reservations, ghettos in Europe or the treatment of Aborigines in Australia, for example.
The tone of many comments on here (not yours) has been disturbing - the desire to look for a group of people to blame, someone to lash out at, someone to penalise. They’ve not been characteristic of a dispassionate determination of best allocation of available resources
As we crawl back towards working normality.
As we discussed yesterday, I don't think Johnson's going anywhere unless he's taken. Or unless he sees some opportunity where he can strut and swagger without the hassle he's had over the past couple of years.
As so often, I rather agree with Mr Sandpit, watching from afar; Johnson will be PM until the election or possibly just before. In that case, technically someone will have the by then poisoned chalice. One thing Johnson won't want to do is emulate John Major in 1997; lead his party to a crashing defeat.
I'd be happy to offer him some odds if he's confident.
There’s a good YouTube video with the ever youthful Brian Cox on the science of the movie. He takes it as seem, about a comet /asteroid, rather than an allegory for anything else.
Confirmed what a senior astronomer at one of the worlds largest telescopes told me. We are still not paying enough attention to the risk. Six months warning is likely all we’d get g do or a comet strike. And to please Leon, he didn’t like the movie’s bashing of the corporation, as we will one day need them to save our bacon.
Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?
As someone once said,
The Planetary Society are one of the main groups promoting the risk of planetary impact from asteroids and comets.
(I haven't see the film.)
Also, the Red Team MAGA Mall Ninjas are usually as fat as fuck with unmanaged diabetes and opiate addictions. Most of them will gas out 2 minutes into a firefight.
Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'
This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
He just hasn't resigned yet.
He's doing a
Theresa MayWile E. Coyote impression.King Cole, the pussyfooting about when they should've axed the fool after the by-election does not, I fear, bode well.
That wasn't the first serious setback for the PM. It takes time for a new man, or woman, to bed in and if they wait much longer the window closes.
If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.
Have a good morning.
Not much enthusiasm for the day ahead from me either, and I used to love my job. I spend more and more time planning retirement.
Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.
Johnson is safe from a VoNC this year, irrespective of the May locals and/or very poor opinion polls. Rather less certain about 2023.
There’s a bit in the movie early on where the scientists after a day or two waiting for the meeting with the politicians say: “yeah there’s this thing coming, it’s definitely going to hit us.” And the politicians shrug and continue with their frivolity. And even when the President then grudgingly later on announces it, after a NY Times front page and a media blitz from the scientists, the population / social media largely carry on the same way. Leon’s favoured normalcy bias in full action. The martial law that you’d assume would be needed to maintain order is never needed because everyone is too busy with cat videos and Ariana Grande to much think about the comet.
Never mind an allegory for global warming, it’s actually better for how covid played out in the West early on. I remember being in Asia and phoning home in Feb 2020 and getting awkward “yeah dude no one here is talking about this, chill out, you’re scaring your mother”. I could have been outside Wuhan General on the phone to the PM and got the same reaction.
I see a similar thing happening now with UAP. The only bit we’ve not had is the (sitting) President announcement, but we’ve had the Ny Times front page, we’ve had the leaders from the obscure government investigation units doing the media rounds, Nobel laureate scientists, senior politicians and we’ve even had the formal congressional report. And everyone just says “meh”. It’s all quite amusing.
This is what Bangladesh used their final review on overnight.
https://twitter.com/Taylorsquard/status/1478260520553615360
I'm hoping we get to term (24th Jan) and its de facto dropped.
That said, no idea how our exams (10th Jan) are going to be run yet.
The only things that could force his exit is scandal(s) where he can bluster his way out or or a plethora of by election losses in safe Tory seats, places like Boston & Skegness, Christchurch, and Mansfield.
Gonna be a bloodbath.
What really gets politicians is a feeling that "you've lost it" when it comes to the public. I think BJ is far from that position and is cunning enough (as you said) to pull it back.
However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.
Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
1. Sort out his image. The dragged backwards through a hedge thing is now damaging him, as his words and actions now match his dishevelled appearance
2. Hire a world-class chief of staff. One who will put Nut Nut and Sunak and anyone else who threatens the boss back in their respective boxes
3. Hire the best political spin machine money can buy. Offer Sunak's people double what he pays them
4. Think - seriously think - about how to handle the inevitable disasters coming down the line and pre-position. Don't wait for flatgate to blow up, think it through and start seeding the narrative now.
Does any of that sound like Boris Johnson...?
Greetings from the beautiful Canary Islands to those starting back at work. One of my favourite aspects of Swedish society is the *ridiculous* amount of free time.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
Why did a taxpayer funded press secretary deliberately mislead the press over taxpayer funds being spent?
1) Hammer home dividing lines
2) Engineer a crisis (preferably Brexit related)
3) Make too good to be true promises
4) Reduce everything to a three word slogan
5) Let Facebook do the rest
On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).
Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.
The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
It is only issues around how he should himself act where he consistently ignores good advice, probably because being a selfish twat has consistently delivered him what he wants.
All the military capabilities if the US would be of only limited use against a sustained campaign of domestic terrorism, for example.
I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
1) Can Rishi really survive both the obvious problems of being the right hand man of the toppled Boris + being the CE who presides over a year of high inflation and low wage growth. Does he not have to engineer a 'principled' resignation and campaign in Heseltine style?
2) How do you work out the Tory membership's priorities between voting for a populist head banger and voting for someone who can be a decent PM?
Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
It won't go away until the G has something else to smear around. Isn't that an "it must be a day with D in it thing"?
First one I've done for a bit, and I made it on a pastry board then moved it. Bad idea, even though I have a clown-shoe sized fish-slice.
Lesson 1 - make it where it will be cooked, or on a pizza shovel (not in my possession).
Any other tips?
In practice there is no one who can he k the individual fiefdoms, and central policy depends on shifting alliances that it is very hard to read from the outside
Once you've fact-checked a couple of hundred articles you get the style.
Misleading headlines as no one on Twitter or other social media bothers with the article, and "somebody else wrote the headline" as the first line of defence by the writer when inconsistencies pointed out. "It has been reported that" type commentary when it is an advantage to repeat made up stuff (sometimes made up by the Indy). Statistics sourced by linking back to previous inaccurate reporting as true. Routine smear. Opinion in "news reports". Changing dividing lines / categories because the writer is either stupid or deliberately misleading.
Just the shitty modus operandi for a shitty London newspaper.
I'd make the same critique about papers on the other side; I find them less somewhat annoying because they don't suffer from ingrowing sanctimonious hypocrisy to the same extent.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/one-year-anniversary-of-uk-deploying-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine
My issue is the vaxports have been positioned as punishment not as a tool.
I can’t see how rebranding a bunch of the permanently enraged, policy free mediocrities who are the current intake as ‘independent’ will make much difference though I would enjoy the irony. It also ignores that the SCons enjoyed their greatest success in decades with a media friendly leader who managed to triangulate the Orange men with dubious tattoos, centrist Unionists and going along with whatever CCHQ wanted (though the good baroness, not being stupid, realised that that had its natural ceiling and was off to pastures new).
Of the current crop, Dr Gulhane looks to have the necessary taste for self publicity and greasy pole climbing to replicate Ruthism, though yet to be seen if he has the smarts.
But at the end of the day, the story will be lost in the New Year miasma. Ironically, the fact that it is Liz Truss's go-to venue is probably the best defence against questions of croneyism. Like George Osborne's favourite posh burgers.
If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
Lab 308
Con 247
SNP 59
Lib Dem 11
Labour short 18 seats of majority
I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
How many people believing or promoting the headline will have read to the 5th para?
Labour
Trustworthy: 21%
Untrustworthy: 40%
Conservatives
Trustworthy: 10%
Untrustworthy: 64%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/is-the-labour-party-trustworthy-or-untrustworthy?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=tracker&utm_campaign=labour_trust https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1478298928823128066/photo/1
Brexit bad. We need more young 'educated' people so that we don't vote for such things again.
(Only a slight exaggeration)
And justification for your claim?
The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.
I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
Leader of the Opposition if Boris loses the general election however not impossible
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20