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I’m not convinced by Liz Truss – the big CON leader betting mover – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageI’m not convinced by Liz Truss – the big CON leader betting mover – politicalbetting.com

The Betdata.io chart shows the movements on Betfair in the next CON leader betting and as can be seen the big mover has been Liz Truss – who is now Foreign Secretary.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,059
    Test
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,287
    rcs1000 said:

    Sell Rishi: as far as I'm aware he has no loyal following among Conservative MPs, and despite being Chancellor he's not that much of a household name. He also suffers from being Johnson's man. If Johnson succeeds, he's not going to stop being PM. If Johnson fails, then Sunak is too close to him.

    Sell Truss: yes, she's popular among Conservative members, but like with Sunak, it's far from clear that she has any base among MPs. If she makes it to the final two, she's in with a good shout. But I reckon it's far from certain she'll be in the top two.

    Sell Hunt: largely unknown among the general public, not loved by his parliamentary colleagues.

    So... who does that leave?

    Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet. And if they are an MP they could be on the backbenches or in a very junior role.

    Ultimately, we don't know when the election will be, and that makes everyone on that list (with the possible exception of Starmer) a sell. Johnson could be PM in 2044, before handing off to his son and heir. (Unlikely, I know.) He could lose to Starmer in 2024.

    But I think the smart money is on him - like most politicians - hanging on as long as he can.

    Sell the favorites.

    Sunak is definitely a household name, e.g. https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/fame/politicians-political-figures/all

    Agree with the conclusion, but think better to skip this market.

    1) uncertain when payout will come.

    But 2) is more important; whenever there is a vacancy for Tory leader, there is likely to be easy money on candidates whose odds are obviously wrong. So just wait. E.g. Leadsom last time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Yes, lay the favourites and in small amounts, given it could be a few months or several years until we get a contest.

    Is there now a tiny bit of value in Starmer as next PM, at 8/1?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,800
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet.

    Dominic Minghella seems to think he's going to bring down the 'regime' this year.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @turbotubbs FPT

    The issue on othering isn’t discrimination. That happens the whole time through tax or whatever.

    The issue is that it is the public identification of a group and that the statement that they are different and have fewer rights than the mainstream; that they are “other” from the mainstream. It’s been most prominent in racial politics - think of Native American reservations, ghettos in Europe or the treatment of Aborigines in Australia, for example.

    The tone of many comments on here (not yours) has been disturbing - the desire to look for a group of people to blame, someone to lash out at, someone to penalise. They’ve not been characteristic of a dispassionate determination of best allocation of available resources
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited January 4
    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    As we discussed yesterday, I don't think Johnson's going anywhere unless he's taken. Or unless he sees some opportunity where he can strut and swagger without the hassle he's had over the past couple of years.

    As so often, I rather agree with Mr Sandpit, watching from afar; Johnson will be PM until the election or possibly just before. In that case, technically someone will have the by then poisoned chalice. One thing Johnson won't want to do is emulate John Major in 1997; lead his party to a crashing defeat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    rcs1000 said:

    Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet.

    Dominic Minghella seems to think he's going to bring down the 'regime' this year.
    He may be right.

    I'd be happy to offer him some odds if he's confident.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    FPT - Don’t Look Down

    There’s a good YouTube video with the ever youthful Brian Cox on the science of the movie. He takes it as seem, about a comet /asteroid, rather than an allegory for anything else.

    Confirmed what a senior astronomer at one of the worlds largest telescopes told me. We are still not paying enough attention to the risk. Six months warning is likely all we’d get g do or a comet strike. And to please Leon, he didn’t like the movie’s bashing of the corporation, as we will one day need them to save our bacon.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    moonshine said:

    FPT - Don’t Look Down

    There’s a good YouTube video with the ever youthful Brian Cox on the science of the movie. He takes it as seem, about a comet /asteroid, rather than an allegory for anything else.

    Confirmed what a senior astronomer at one of the worlds largest telescopes told me. We are still not paying enough attention to the risk. Six months warning is likely all we’d get g do or a comet strike. And to please Leon, he didn’t like the movie’s bashing of the corporation, as we will one day need them to save our bacon.

    I listen to a lot of space podcasts, and on one (I think it was the Planetary Society's), they interviewed the woman who acted as their science advisor. She changed it from an asteroid to a comet, as we would probably get much less of a warning.

    The Planetary Society are one of the main groups promoting the risk of planetary impact from asteroids and comets.

    (I haven't see the film.)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    Sandpit said:


    I always have a funny thought when a new US Civil War gets mentioned - I am imagining the build-up to it, with one side arguing about the precise gender and racial imbalance of their army, while the other is stockpiling ammunition for their many guns.

    The guns are irrelevant; whoever has control of the logistics and comms capabilities of the armed forces will win. You can have all the Ruger 10/22s you want but it doesn't mean shit if the other side are flying in C-5Ms full of supplies and have MQ-1Cs overhead.

    Also, the Red Team MAGA Mall Ninjas are usually as fat as fuck with unmanaged diabetes and opiate addictions. Most of them will gas out 2 minutes into a firefight.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    rcs1000 said:

    Sell Rishi: as far as I'm aware he has no loyal following among Conservative MPs, and despite being Chancellor he's not that much of a household name. He also suffers from being Johnson's man. If Johnson succeeds, he's not going to stop being PM. If Johnson fails, then Sunak is too close to him.

    Sell Truss: yes, she's popular among Conservative members, but like with Sunak, it's far from clear that she has any base among MPs. If she makes it to the final two, she's in with a good shout. But I reckon it's far from certain she'll be in the top two.

    Sell Hunt: largely unknown among the general public, not loved by his parliamentary colleagues.

    So... who does that leave?

    Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet. And if they are an MP they could be on the backbenches or in a very junior role.

    Ultimately, we don't know when the election will be, and that makes everyone on that list (with the possible exception of Starmer) a sell. Johnson could be PM in 2044, before handing off to his son and heir. (Unlikely, I know.) He could lose to Starmer in 2024.

    But I think the smart money is on him - like most politicians - hanging on as long as he can.

    Sell the favorites.

    That all sounds good, but makes the mistake of assuming these Tory members have the same rational instincts and common sense as the rest of us.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    He is finished. He's lost control of policy to the cabinet. His popularity has collapsed. He can't control his backbenches and is reliant on Labour votes to pass key policies.

    He just hasn't resigned yet.

    He's doing a Theresa May Wile E. Coyote impression.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,843

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,774
    Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, the pussyfooting about when they should've axed the fool after the by-election does not, I fear, bode well.

    That wasn't the first serious setback for the PM. It takes time for a new man, or woman, to bed in and if they wait much longer the window closes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
    The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited January 4

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Cartoon from yesterday, but relevant here


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
    ATB. Look after yourself.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
    The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
    They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
    It will be shit, but January will pass.

    Not much enthusiasm for the day ahead from me either, and I used to love my job. I spend more and more time planning retirement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Sorry to hear that. I take it that you don't wear a mask when speaking in the same way I don't when speaking in court? Do you have to stay at the front of the class and effectively isolate yourself?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
    The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
    They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
    No, but the FTPA didn't stop Boris in 2019. Or May in 2017.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,915
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
    The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
    They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
    I’m pretty sure (but must check) that there is a Bill working its way through Parliament on the former, while the new boundaries will be in place by July 2023 (the requirement for Commons approval has been removed).

    Johnson is safe from a VoNC this year, irrespective of the May locals and/or very poor opinion polls. Rather less certain about 2023.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    moonshine said:

    FPT - Don’t Look Down

    There’s a good YouTube video with the ever youthful Brian Cox on the science of the movie. He takes it as seem, about a comet /asteroid, rather than an allegory for anything else.

    Confirmed what a senior astronomer at one of the worlds largest telescopes told me. We are still not paying enough attention to the risk. Six months warning is likely all we’d get g do or a comet strike. And to please Leon, he didn’t like the movie’s bashing of the corporation, as we will one day need them to save our bacon.

    I listen to a lot of space podcasts, and on one (I think it was the Planetary Society's), they interviewed the woman who acted as their science advisor. She changed it from an asteroid to a comet, as we would probably get much less of a warning.

    The Planetary Society are one of the main groups promoting the risk of planetary impact from asteroids and comets.

    (I haven't see the film.)
    (Mild spoilers)

    There’s a bit in the movie early on where the scientists after a day or two waiting for the meeting with the politicians say: “yeah there’s this thing coming, it’s definitely going to hit us.” And the politicians shrug and continue with their frivolity. And even when the President then grudgingly later on announces it, after a NY Times front page and a media blitz from the scientists, the population / social media largely carry on the same way. Leon’s favoured normalcy bias in full action. The martial law that you’d assume would be needed to maintain order is never needed because everyone is too busy with cat videos and Ariana Grande to much think about the comet.

    Never mind an allegory for global warming, it’s actually better for how covid played out in the West early on. I remember being in Asia and phoning home in Feb 2020 and getting awkward “yeah dude no one here is talking about this, chill out, you’re scaring your mother”. I could have been outside Wuhan General on the phone to the PM and got the same reaction.

    I see a similar thing happening now with UAP. The only bit we’ve not had is the (sitting) President announcement, but we’ve had the Ny Times front page, we’ve had the leaders from the obscure government investigation units doing the media rounds, Nobel laureate scientists, senior politicians and we’ve even had the formal congressional report. And everyone just says “meh”. It’s all quite amusing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    He is finished. He's lost control of policy to the cabinet. His popularity has collapsed. He can't control his backbenches and is reliant on Labour votes to pass key policies.

    He just hasn't resigned yet.

    He's doing a Theresa May Wile E. Coyote impression.
    In office but not in power?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
    The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
    They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
    No, but the FTPA didn't stop Boris in 2019. Or May in 2017.
    Well, it didn’t go well for May. And required Boris to permanently tarnish his reputation to force the issue to the extent that the opposition caved to an election at a time it suited him rather than them. That we are 12 years into a Tory govt and the boundaries are still unresolved is mind blowing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
    Best of luck!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited January 4
    More importantly, have we discussed this?

    This is what Bangladesh used their final review on overnight.

    https://twitter.com/Taylorsquard/status/1478260520553615360
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think Truss will flop, and Sunak get it. The question is when, and whether before or after Starmer, who I think offers value as next PM. Those odds will shorten the longer Johnson clings on.

    Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.

    He would have to be both spectacularly lucky and pull off a damascean conversion to truth and honesty to rebuild his reputation. Once you have shat yourself as badly as Peppa there is very rarely a political way back.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,695
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
    We've also been asked to teach in mask or visor.

    I'm hoping we get to term (24th Jan) and its de facto dropped.

    That said, no idea how our exams (10th Jan) are going to be run yet.
  • JohnO said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    'It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.'

    As someone once said,
    Extraordinary the way one poll reversing a trensd that was always going to reverse at some point is generating so much comment. FWIW my cliche for the day 'next GE is a marathon not a race' - plenty of twists and turns to come. Oh and of course how can one resist the old 'outliers' are the polls so-called by those who don't like the message!
    The next GE is a marathon and not a race, but it is a marathon where the government can decide to shorten the length by a number of miles if they decide it's to their advantage.
    They still haven't got around to abolishing the FTPA have they? Or, for that matter, got the new boundaries in place. A surprising lack of diligence on both counts. The Tories have missed the latter in the last 2 Parliaments already.
    I’m pretty sure (but must check) that there is a Bill working its way through Parliament on the former, while the new boundaries will be in place by July 2023 (the requirement for Commons approval has been removed).

    Johnson is safe from a VoNC this year, irrespective of the May locals and/or very poor opinion polls. Rather less certain about 2023.
    Agree, I think Sunak and others will want Boris Johnson to front the problems coming in 2022 then get the Major bounce close to a general election.

    The only things that could force his exit is scandal(s) where he can bluster his way out or or a plethora of by election losses in safe Tory seats, places like Boston & Skegness, Christchurch, and Mansfield.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think Truss will flop, and Sunak get it. The question is when, and whether before or after Starmer, who I think offers value as next PM. Those odds will shorten the longer Johnson clings on.

    Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.

    He would have to be both spectacularly lucky and pull off a damascean conversion to truth and honesty to rebuild his reputation. Once you have shat yourself as badly as Peppa there is very rarely a political way back.
    Yes, but I think that he is cunning enough to carpet a few of the usurper yet. A spring reshuffle may well be quite a bloodletting.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Foxy said:

    Yes, but I think that he is cunning enough to carpet a few of the usurper yet. A spring reshuffle may well be quite a bloodletting.

    All of whom could write to Graham Brady...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    - “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”

    Gonna be a bloodbath.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think Truss will flop, and Sunak get it. The question is when, and whether before or after Starmer, who I think offers value as next PM. Those odds will shorten the longer Johnson clings on.

    Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.

    He would have to be both spectacularly lucky and pull off a damascean conversion to truth and honesty to rebuild his reputation. Once you have shat yourself as badly as Peppa there is very rarely a political way back.
    Yes, but I think that he is cunning enough to carpet a few of the usurper yet. A spring reshuffle may well be quite a bloodletting.
    Really? Look at the shit Blair pulled off ("I'm a honest guy", Mandelson etc etc) and he still won two majorities afterwards.

    What really gets politicians is a feeling that "you've lost it" when it comes to the public. I think BJ is far from that position and is cunning enough (as you said) to pull it back.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,695

    - “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”

    Gonna be a bloodbath.

    The local elections 'narrative' depends on what the seats did last time - which was 2018 and a approx. tie between Labour and Conservative nationwide.

    However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.

    Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think Truss will flop, and Sunak get it. The question is when, and whether before or after Starmer, who I think offers value as next PM. Those odds will shorten the longer Johnson clings on.

    Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.

    He would have to be both spectacularly lucky and pull off a damascean conversion to truth and honesty to rebuild his reputation. Once you have shat yourself as badly as Peppa there is very rarely a political way back.
    Yes, but I think that he is cunning enough to carpet a few of the usurper yet. A spring reshuffle may well be quite a bloodletting.
    Really? Look at the shit Blair pulled off ("I'm a honest guy", Mandelson etc etc) and he still won two majorities afterwards.

    What really gets politicians is a feeling that "you've lost it" when it comes to the public. I think BJ is far from that position and is cunning enough (as you said) to pull it back.
    Sorry Foxy, that reply was meant for RP
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    More importantly, have we discussed this?

    This is what Bangladesh used their final review on overnight.

    https://twitter.com/Taylorsquard/status/1478260520553615360

    LOL, I've not been paying attention to that Test, but I see the visitors are doing rather well.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited January 4
    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think Truss will flop, and Sunak get it. The question is when, and whether before or after Starmer, who I think offers value as next PM. Those odds will shorten the longer Johnson clings on.

    Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.

    He would have to be both spectacularly lucky and pull off a damascean conversion to truth and honesty to rebuild his reputation. Once you have shat yourself as badly as Peppa there is very rarely a political way back.
    Yes, but I think that he is cunning enough to carpet a few of the usurper yet. A spring reshuffle may well be quite a bloodletting.
    Really? Look at the shit Blair pulled off ("I'm a honest guy", Mandelson etc etc) and he still won two majorities afterwards.

    What really gets politicians is a feeling that "you've lost it" when it comes to the public. I think BJ is far from that position and is cunning enough (as you said) to pull it back.
    Sorry Foxy, that reply was meant for RP
    His recovery whilst possible feels very very unlikely. A few gimmes he will have to do:
    1. Sort out his image. The dragged backwards through a hedge thing is now damaging him, as his words and actions now match his dishevelled appearance
    2. Hire a world-class chief of staff. One who will put Nut Nut and Sunak and anyone else who threatens the boss back in their respective boxes
    3. Hire the best political spin machine money can buy. Offer Sunak's people double what he pays them
    4. Think - seriously think - about how to handle the inevitable disasters coming down the line and pre-position. Don't wait for flatgate to blow up, think it through and start seeding the narrative now.

    Does any of that sound like Boris Johnson...?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    Yes, I think Morduant could be a dark horse in the race. She ticks a lot of boxes and hasn't developed many obvious enemies.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257


    2. Hire a world-class chief of staff. One who will put Nut Nut and Sunak and anyone else who threatens the boss back in their respective boxes

    Danny the Fink pointed out in the Times recently that it's pointless to imagine that a change of advisor will help because the only advisor Johnson listens to is Johnson.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    He is finished. He's lost control of policy to the cabinet. His popularity has collapsed. He can't control his backbenches and is reliant on Labour votes to pass key policies.

    He just hasn't resigned yet.

    He's doing a Theresa May Wile E. Coyote impression.
    In office but not in power?
    Which begs the question: who is in power?

    Greetings from the beautiful Canary Islands to those starting back at work. One of my favourite aspects of Swedish society is the *ridiculous* amount of free time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Dura_Ace said:


    2. Hire a world-class chief of staff. One who will put Nut Nut and Sunak and anyone else who threatens the boss back in their respective boxes

    Danny the Fink pointed out in the Times recently that it's pointless to imagine that a change of advisor will help because the only advisor Johnson listens to is Johnson.
    Mr or Mrs?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    moonshine said:

    FPT - Don’t Look Down

    There’s a good YouTube video with the ever youthful Brian Cox on the science of the movie. He takes it as seem, about a comet /asteroid, rather than an allegory for anything else.

    Confirmed what a senior astronomer at one of the worlds largest telescopes told me. We are still not paying enough attention to the risk. Six months warning is likely all we’d get g do or a comet strike. And to please Leon, he didn’t like the movie’s bashing of the corporation, as we will one day need them to save our bacon.

    I listen to a lot of space podcasts, and on one (I think it was the Planetary Society's), they interviewed the woman who acted as their science advisor. She changed it from an asteroid to a comet, as we would probably get much less of a warning.

    The Planetary Society are one of the main groups promoting the risk of planetary impact from asteroids and comets.

    (I haven't see the film.)
    Warning of the risk, surely!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Carnyx said:
    The journalist that originally posted the story already raised that question

    Why did a taxpayer funded press secretary deliberately mislead the press over taxpayer funds being spent?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    rcs1000 said:

    Sell Rishi: as far as I'm aware he has no loyal following among Conservative MPs, and despite being Chancellor he's not that much of a household name. He also suffers from being Johnson's man. If Johnson succeeds, he's not going to stop being PM. If Johnson fails, then Sunak is too close to him.

    Sell Truss: yes, she's popular among Conservative members, but like with Sunak, it's far from clear that she has any base among MPs. If she makes it to the final two, she's in with a good shout. But I reckon it's far from certain she'll be in the top two.

    Sell Hunt: largely unknown among the general public, not loved by his parliamentary colleagues.

    So... who does that leave?

    Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet. And if they are an MP they could be on the backbenches or in a very junior role.

    Ultimately, we don't know when the election will be, and that makes everyone on that list (with the possible exception of Starmer) a sell. Johnson could be PM in 2044, before handing off to his son and heir. (Unlikely, I know.) He could lose to Starmer in 2024.

    But I think the smart money is on him - like most politicians - hanging on as long as he can.

    Sell the favorites.

    I believe Hancock still harbours ambitions and the general public certainly knows who he is..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    edited January 4

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think Truss will flop, and Sunak get it. The question is when, and whether before or after Starmer, who I think offers value as next PM. Those odds will shorten the longer Johnson clings on.

    Johnson is a lying, idle buffoon but the one thing he concentrates on is gaining and retaining his position. He will put all his efforts into that.

    He would have to be both spectacularly lucky and pull off a damascean conversion to truth and honesty to rebuild his reputation. Once you have shat yourself as badly as Peppa there is very rarely a political way back.
    Yes, but I think that he is cunning enough to carpet a few of the usurper yet. A spring reshuffle may well be quite a bloodletting.
    Really? Look at the shit Blair pulled off ("I'm a honest guy", Mandelson etc etc) and he still won two majorities afterwards.

    What really gets politicians is a feeling that "you've lost it" when it comes to the public. I think BJ is far from that position and is cunning enough (as you said) to pull it back.
    Sorry Foxy, that reply was meant for RP
    His recovery whilst possible feels very very unlikely. A few gimmes he will have to do:
    1. Sort out his image. The dragged backwards through a hedge thing is now damaging him, as his words and actions now match his dishevelled appearance
    2. Hire a world-class chief of staff. One who will put Nut Nut and Sunak and anyone else who threatens the boss back in their respective boxes
    3. Hire the best political spin machine money can buy. Offer Sunak's people double what he pays them
    4. Think - seriously think - about how to handle the inevitable disasters coming down the line and pre-position. Don't wait for flatgate to blow up, think it through and start seeding the narrative now.

    Does any of that sound like Boris Johnson...?
    Old skool. That’s the approach if you were serious about government. This lot run a perpetual election campaign. They’ll use that to bluff and confuse.

    1) Hammer home dividing lines
    2) Engineer a crisis (preferably Brexit related)
    3) Make too good to be true promises
    4) Reduce everything to a three word slogan
    5) Let Facebook do the rest

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649

    rcs1000 said:

    Sell Rishi: as far as I'm aware he has no loyal following among Conservative MPs, and despite being Chancellor he's not that much of a household name. He also suffers from being Johnson's man. If Johnson succeeds, he's not going to stop being PM. If Johnson fails, then Sunak is too close to him.

    Sell Truss: yes, she's popular among Conservative members, but like with Sunak, it's far from clear that she has any base among MPs. If she makes it to the final two, she's in with a good shout. But I reckon it's far from certain she'll be in the top two.

    Sell Hunt: largely unknown among the general public, not loved by his parliamentary colleagues.

    So... who does that leave?

    Well, I suspect the real value is with the people not listed here. The next PM, let us not forget, may not even be an MP yet. And if they are an MP they could be on the backbenches or in a very junior role.

    Ultimately, we don't know when the election will be, and that makes everyone on that list (with the possible exception of Starmer) a sell. Johnson could be PM in 2044, before handing off to his son and heir. (Unlikely, I know.) He could lose to Starmer in 2024.

    But I think the smart money is on him - like most politicians - hanging on as long as he can.

    Sell the favorites.

    I believe Hancock still harbours ambitions and the general public certainly knows who he is..
    Needs to go on Strictly for public redemption first.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    edited January 4
    On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.

    On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).

    Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.

    The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    edited January 4

    - “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”

    Gonna be a bloodbath.

    The local elections 'narrative' depends on what the seats did last time - which was 2018 and a approx. tie between Labour and Conservative nationwide.

    However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.

    Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
    How is the Con Expectations Management team going to play it in the weeks leading up to it? I note the SCons are already rolling out the now-classic “we’re going to form a breakaway party”.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649
    Dura_Ace said:


    2. Hire a world-class chief of staff. One who will put Nut Nut and Sunak and anyone else who threatens the boss back in their respective boxes

    Danny the Fink pointed out in the Times recently that it's pointless to imagine that a change of advisor will help because the only advisor Johnson listens to is Johnson.
    According to Cummings, who should know, that does not seem to be true. On complicated dry policy issues he seems content to listen to whoever he spoke to last, or whoever is flavour of the month, hence the "trolley" label. The downside for an advisor like Cummings is that even if they think they can control the PM, that will be fleeting and temporary.

    It is only issues around how he should himself act where he consistently ignores good advice, probably because being a selfish twat has consistently delivered him what he wants.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    I always have a funny thought when a new US Civil War gets mentioned - I am imagining the build-up to it, with one side arguing about the precise gender and racial imbalance of their army, while the other is stockpiling ammunition for their many guns.

    The guns are irrelevant; whoever has control of the logistics and comms capabilities of the armed forces will win. You can have all the Ruger 10/22s you want but it doesn't mean shit if the other side are flying in C-5Ms full of supplies and have MQ-1Cs overhead.

    Also, the Red Team MAGA Mall Ninjas are usually as fat as fuck with unmanaged diabetes and opiate addictions. Most of them will gas out 2 minutes into a firefight.
    There's more than one way to have a civil war.
    All the military capabilities if the US would be of only limited use against a sustained campaign of domestic terrorism, for example.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Thanks for the header Mike.

    I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    Two issues to consider in working out the probabilities for next Tory leader/PM.

    1) Can Rishi really survive both the obvious problems of being the right hand man of the toppled Boris + being the CE who presides over a year of high inflation and low wage growth. Does he not have to engineer a 'principled' resignation and campaign in Heseltine style?

    2) How do you work out the Tory membership's priorities between voting for a populist head banger and voting for someone who can be a decent PM?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    The only consolation I can offer is that it's unlikely to last long this time around.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,471
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header Mike.

    I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?

    Read the thread. It looks like someone has been economical with the actualité. Though I'm not sure how much cut-through the issue will have.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited January 4
    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.

    It won't go away until the G has something else to smear around. Isn't that an "it must be a day with D in it thing"?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    More on demographics, and the falling birth rate in the west, on R4
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    I wonder if offering immediate payment will get over half the bill off next time I go for lunch. All a bit weird.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,471
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    Yes, we read that in the, erm, Guardian. But add the word "abracadabra" and suddenly it is a Guardian plot: is that how it works?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649

    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header Mike.

    I thought we'd all agreed that it wasn't a hugely expensive lunch?

    Read the thread. It looks like someone has been economical with the actualité. Though I'm not sure how much cut-through the issue will have.
    I'd suggest cut through will be mostly about a hundred posts on here spread over a few days. It won't be noticed in the real world, apart from re-enforcing Tory sleaze to people who would never vote Tory anyway.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Since we are on lunch, I need to talk about pizzas as I tried one with my 250C range cooker last night, using (pretty good) dough made by the bread machine.

    First one I've done for a bit, and I made it on a pastry board then moved it. Bad idea, even though I have a clown-shoe sized fish-slice.

    Lesson 1 - make it where it will be cooked, or on a pizza shovel (not in my possession).

    Any other tips?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    I wonder if offering immediate payment will get over half the bill off next time I go for lunch. All a bit weird.
    Two measures of dry gin now, not two bottles.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Charles said:

    @turbotubbs FPT

    The issue on othering isn’t discrimination. That happens the whole time through tax or whatever.

    The issue is that it is the public identification of a group and that the statement that they are different and have fewer rights than the mainstream; that they are “other” from the mainstream. It’s been most prominent in racial politics - think of Native American reservations, ghettos in Europe or the treatment of Aborigines in Australia, for example.

    The tone of many comments on here (not yours) has been disturbing - the desire to look for a group of people to blame, someone to lash out at, someone to penalise. They’ve not been characteristic of a dispassionate determination of best allocation of available resources

    Thank you for a well reasoned answer. I don’t really agree but that’s fine. Where do you stand on civic responsibility? I believe that everyone who is able should be vaccinated for the good of all. I think measures such as vaccine passports etc are a tool to help get some of the refusers to accept the vaccine. It may be that it would be counterproductive. But I think it’s worth trying.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    "It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important."

    Is this being said by the same people who said that Boris was finished if he lost that by election in deepest Shropshire or wherever?

    He is finished. He's lost control of policy to the cabinet. His popularity has collapsed. He can't control his backbenches and is reliant on Labour votes to pass key policies.

    He just hasn't resigned yet.

    He's doing a Theresa May Wile E. Coyote impression.
    In office but not in power?
    Which begs the question: who is in power?

    Greetings from the beautiful Canary Islands to those starting back at work. One of my favourite aspects of Swedish society is the *ridiculous* amount of free time.
    Mechanistically the cabinet.

    In practice there is no one who can he k the individual fiefdoms, and central policy depends on shifting alliances that it is very hard to read from the outside
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.

    On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).

    Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.

    The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.

    Was the “short coronation ceremony” deliberate?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited January 4

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    Yes, we read that in the, erm, Guardian. But add the word "abracadabra" and suddenly it is a Guardian plot: is that how it works?
    I think that's just how the G does it's political writing much of the time. Exaggerated smears are one of their daily habits.

    Once you've fact-checked a couple of hundred articles you get the style.

    Misleading headlines as no one on Twitter or other social media bothers with the article, and "somebody else wrote the headline" as the first line of defence by the writer when inconsistencies pointed out. "It has been reported that" type commentary when it is an advantage to repeat made up stuff (sometimes made up by the Indy). Statistics sourced by linking back to previous inaccurate reporting as true. Routine smear. Opinion in "news reports". Changing dividing lines / categories because the writer is either stupid or deliberately misleading.

    Just the shitty modus operandi for a shitty London newspaper.

    I'd make the same critique about papers on the other side; I find them less somewhat annoying because they don't suffer from ingrowing sanctimonious hypocrisy to the same extent.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    I wonder if offering immediate payment will get over half the bill off next time I go for lunch. All a bit weird.
    I suspect the difference is they took a table in the restaurant and ordered off the menu vs a private room with a minimum spend
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
    We've also been asked to teach in mask or visor.

    I'm hoping we get to term (24th Jan) and its de facto dropped.

    That said, no idea how our exams (10th Jan) are going to be run yet.
    Our uni exams are online, but thankfully not 24h, just the normal time plus one hour. Up till now students have been expected to wear masks but staff don’t have to when giving lectures etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
    50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @turbotubbs FPT

    The issue on othering isn’t discrimination. That happens the whole time through tax or whatever.

    The issue is that it is the public identification of a group and that the statement that they are different and have fewer rights than the mainstream; that they are “other” from the mainstream. It’s been most prominent in racial politics - think of Native American reservations, ghettos in Europe or the treatment of Aborigines in Australia, for example.

    The tone of many comments on here (not yours) has been disturbing - the desire to look for a group of people to blame, someone to lash out at, someone to penalise. They’ve not been characteristic of a dispassionate determination of best allocation of available resources

    Thank you for a well reasoned answer. I don’t really agree but that’s fine. Where do you stand on civic responsibility? I believe that everyone who is able should be vaccinated for the good of all. I think measures such as vaccine passports etc are a tool to help get some of the refusers to accept the vaccine. It may be that it would be counterproductive. But I think it’s worth trying.
    Absolutely every adult should be vaccinated (much less convinced on children). But it should be of their free will.

    My issue is the vaxports have been positioned as punishment not as a tool.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040

    - “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”

    Gonna be a bloodbath.

    The local elections 'narrative' depends on what the seats did last time - which was 2018 and a approx. tie between Labour and Conservative nationwide.

    However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.

    Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
    How is the Con Expectations Management team going to play it in the weeks leading up to it? I note the SCons are already rolling out the now-classic “we’re going to form a breakaway party”.
    Is it that time of the electoral cycle already?
    I can’t see how rebranding a bunch of the permanently enraged, policy free mediocrities who are the current intake as ‘independent’ will make much difference though I would enjoy the irony. It also ignores that the SCons enjoyed their greatest success in decades with a media friendly leader who managed to triangulate the Orange men with dubious tattoos, centrist Unionists and going along with whatever CCHQ wanted (though the good baroness, not being stupid, realised that that had its natural ceiling and was off to pastures new).
    Of the current crop, Dr Gulhane looks to have the necessary taste for self publicity and greasy pole climbing to replicate Ruthism, though yet to be seen if he has the smarts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,471
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    Yes, we read that in the, erm, Guardian. But add the word "abracadabra" and suddenly it is a Guardian plot: is that how it works?
    I think that's just how the G does it's political writing much of the time. Exaggerated smears are one of their daily habits.

    Once you've fact-checked a couple of hundred articles you get the style.

    Misleading headlines as no one on Twitter or other social media bothers with the article, and "somebody else wrote the headline" as the first line of defence by the writer when inconsistencies pointed out. "It has been reported that" type commentary when it is an advantage to repeat made up stuff (sometimes made up by the Indy). Statistics sourced by linking back to previous inaccurate reporting as true. Routine smear. Opinion in "news reports".

    Just the shitty modus operandi for a shitty London newspaper.

    I'd make the same critique about papers on the other side; I find them less somewhat annoying because they don't suffer from ingrowing sanctimonious hypocrisy to the same extent.

    Fact-checking this article seems to comprise merely reading it as far as the fifth paragraph. And skipping over the question of why the government's initial response to questions seems to have been at variance with the facts.

    But at the end of the day, the story will be lost in the New Year miasma. Ironically, the fact that it is Liz Truss's go-to venue is probably the best defence against questions of croneyism. Like George Osborne's favourite posh burgers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
    50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
    The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend

    If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    Latest Baxter prediction:

    Lab 308
    Con 247
    SNP 59
    Lib Dem 11

    Labour short 18 seats of majority
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,667
    edited January 4
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Well it wasn’t £3,000… it was £1,400 conditional on immediate payment.., which I guess means using a credit card to settle the bill rather than an invoice…
    50% sounds about right. If I were a small business invoicing a large government department, I’d be doubling the price vs a credit card on the day too.
    The £3,000 number was £500 room hire plus £2,500 minimum spend

    If the room was empty then both could be very painlessly waived
    Isn't that what happened - or am I missing something? The restaurant waived the minimum spend and charged only for what was actually bought, conditional on immediate payment.

    I don't think it's that complicated, I have done the same before.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Johnson is in a very weak position, but his main opponents aren't in as strong a position as they could be yet, either. Sunak still looks like a leader for the South, and Truss seems to share some or all the same problems as Johnson.

    For these reasons, as mentioned previously, it could be a complete wildcard that comes to the fore. Penny Mordaunt is interesting on this front - a completely different style to all the challengers.

    In re Ms Truss - the lunch issue is not quite going away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
    Very Guardian.

    Abracadabra the £1400 lunch suddenly becomes a £3000 lunch, by doubling the price they actually paid.
    Yes, we read that in the, erm, Guardian. But add the word "abracadabra" and suddenly it is a Guardian plot: is that how it works?
    I think that's just how the G does it's political writing much of the time. Exaggerated smears are one of their daily habits.

    Once you've fact-checked a couple of hundred articles you get the style.

    Misleading headlines as no one on Twitter or other social media bothers with the article, and "somebody else wrote the headline" as the first line of defence by the writer when inconsistencies pointed out. "It has been reported that" type commentary when it is an advantage to repeat made up stuff (sometimes made up by the Indy). Statistics sourced by linking back to previous inaccurate reporting as true. Routine smear. Opinion in "news reports".

    Just the shitty modus operandi for a shitty London newspaper.

    I'd make the same critique about papers on the other side; I find them less somewhat annoying because they don't suffer from ingrowing sanctimonious hypocrisy to the same extent.

    Fact-checking this article seems to comprise merely reading it as far as the fifth paragraph. And skipping over the question of why the government's initial response to questions seems to have been at variance with the facts.

    But at the end of the day, the story will be lost in the New Year miasma. Ironically, the fact that it is Liz Truss's go-to venue is probably the best defence against questions of croneyism. Like George Osborne's favourite posh burgers.
    I think you are answered on that.

    How many people believing or promoting the headline will have read to the 5th para?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779
    It's a sobering thought that only a few months ago Keir Starmer was the favourite to be next Conservative leader!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    If the spend was all above board and entirely reasonable, why did they lie about it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Keir Starmer has said Labour needs to earn the public's trust, despite the government's "incompetence becoming plain". Latest data on public trust:

    Labour
    Trustworthy: 21%
    Untrustworthy: 40%

    Conservatives
    Trustworthy: 10%
    Untrustworthy: 64%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/is-the-labour-party-trustworthy-or-untrustworthy?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=tracker&utm_campaign=labour_trust https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1478298928823128066/photo/1
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    IanB2 said:

    More on demographics, and the falling birth rate in the west, on R4

    Summary:
    Brexit bad. We need more young 'educated' people so that we don't vote for such things again.

    (Only a slight exaggeration)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Scott_xP said:

    If the spend was all above board and entirely reasonable, why did they lie about it?

    What does that relate to Scott?

    And justification for your claim?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the spend was all above board and entirely reasonable, why did they lie about it?

    What does that relate to Scott?

    And justification for your claim?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/04/leak-casts-doubt-on-explanation-for-liz-trusss-3000-lunch-says-labour
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Chris said:

    It's a sobering thought that only a few months ago Keir Starmer was the favourite to be next Conservative leader!

    BJO has been warning us!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    MaxPB said:

    On topic - I'm not convinced by Liz Truss either. She's trying far too hard to be the next Mrs Thatcher. Too many photo ops and set pieces. If that comparison was forthcoming people would make it without "friends of Liz" going around telling everyone just how much like Maggie she is.

    On the wider next leaders market, I think the party will want a palate cleanser after Boris so I'm not sure than any of the current Cabinet will get the nod. Of the cabinet Rishi probably has the best chance with a short coronation ceremony but I'm not sure he's got the support with MPs to pull it off and there's too many rival factions. He'd have to unite the ERG/CRG behind him (which is doable) rather than their own man (likely Steve Baker or Mark Harper).

    Boris has probably seen off the near term threat to his leadership by not locking down, I think the next big threat will be renewal of plan B measures towards the end of this month but I'm not sure they'll depose him for renewing something that already exists with Labour support.

    The biggest threat to Boris is if we get to May/June and Labour still has a big lead and the Boris 2019 voter coalition looks fractured. Like it or not (from a Tory perspective) in 2019 they got ~25% of all remainers to vote for them alongside their more leave coalition, that was the difference between the 80 seat majority and a much smaller one. These are the key swing voters in the next election and Boris is going to struggle to keep them in the tent, the next leader will have to come up with a platform of competence and some kind of "open Britain" type of policy to get them back on board. I don't know who does that.

    Those 25% remain supporters want a Government that doesn't spend money up North.

    The red wall seats want a chance of levelling up actually levelling things up and that means spending money.

    I can't see how you square that circle and the Tories do need to to keep both sides on side.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,695

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning everyone.
    As we crawl back towards working normality.

    Speak for yourself, I'm getting further away from it.

    Although apparently in the government's view an invasive and futile gesture based on the need to do something is 'not a new restriction.'

    This is, of course, because they're complete twats.
    Noted. You are clearly worrying yourself into some sort of problem, Dr, and I'm sure I'm not the only one of your friends here who are becoming concerned about you.
    I've been quite concerned about myself, for the matter of that, since the difficulty of teaching in masks first time around left me with stress pains that made it impossible to walk.
    Hmmm. Not good. How are your work colleagues feeling?
    I've no idea. But most of them having good hearing are less concerned about mask wearing than about the general ineptitude of the DfE. All of them are furious about that.

    If we get through to half term without a system wide collapse it will be no thanks to our political lords and masters.

    Have a good morning.
    We've also been asked to teach in mask or visor.

    I'm hoping we get to term (24th Jan) and its de facto dropped.

    That said, no idea how our exams (10th Jan) are going to be run yet.
    Our uni exams are online, but thankfully not 24h, just the normal time plus one hour. Up till now students have been expected to wear masks but staff don’t have to when giving lectures etc.
    We won the 24 hr battle last year, so ran proper online timed assessments - but then decided to run all exams on campus this academic year because our accrediting bodies gave some very lukewarm advice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Given the Tories are only 3% behind in the latest poll but a Truss led Tories was 16% behind Labour in the last Opinium poll I think we can say there is no prospect of her becoming Tory leader and PM anytime soon. Likely Boris now more secure than he was too.

    Leader of the Opposition if Boris loses the general election however not impossible

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    - “It is said that a good performance for the Tories in the May local elections is important.”

    Gonna be a bloodbath.

    The local elections 'narrative' depends on what the seats did last time - which was 2018 and a approx. tie between Labour and Conservative nationwide.

    However, it seems to be all London and Birmingham seats up for grabs, so I'd expect Labour to be well ahead on totals, even as that hides a closer tale.

    Spin teams are gonna have to earn their keep overnight.
    How is the Con Expectations Management team going to play it in the weeks leading up to it? I note the SCons are already rolling out the now-classic “we’re going to form a breakaway party”.
    Is it that time of the electoral cycle already?
    I can’t see how rebranding a bunch of the permanently enraged, policy free mediocrities who are the current intake as ‘independent’ will make much difference though I would enjoy the irony. It also ignores that the SCons enjoyed their greatest success in decades with a media friendly leader who managed to triangulate the Orange men with dubious tattoos, centrist Unionists and going along with whatever CCHQ wanted (though the good baroness, not being stupid, realised that that had its natural ceiling and was off to pastures new).
    Of the current crop, Dr Gulhane looks to have the necessary taste for self publicity and greasy pole climbing to replicate Ruthism, though yet to be seen if he has the smarts.
    Interested to see that Dr G had been the doc for Queens Park FC. At least that does not have the overtones of the Queen's XI FC (as IIRC expressed by another erstwhile Scon leadership contender).
This discussion has been closed.