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A bit of a CON recovery in the first 2022 poll – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone considered joining the Tories on the basis that £25 represents good value for potentially choosing the next prime minister?

    It's why I joined. At the time, specifically to vote against Johnson.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Endillion said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. Not that there was an anti-semitism problem in Jezbollah's Labour you understand. It was all just a smear...
    Just on a point of order, his father was Jewish, but his mother wasn't, so he also isn't (and I believe doesn't claim to be).
    As David Baddiel always responds to such points, the nazis would have happily murdered him, so he's Jewish whether he identifies as such or not.
    For that matter, it is good enough for the state of Israel too, indeed a single Jewish grandparent I believe is enough.

  • Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone considered joining the Tories on the basis that £25 represents good value for potentially choosing the next prime minister?

    Me.
  • MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Mandelson photo is ludicrous stuff.
    There are photos of Jimmy Savile with all and sundry of the great and good.
    That's what manipulative paedophiles do. Ingratiate themselves with folk of influence.

    Topical.


    Are you sure that is genuine, @TSE?

    It seems to be form conspiracy ridden parts of the internet.
    Is that a duck in your pocket or are you just pleased to see me?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Nobody tell CHB....

    French scientists detect ANOTHER variant linked to travel to Cameroon and say it carries 46 mutations that may make it more vaccine-resistant and infectious (but it is so far NOT outcompeting Omicron)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10365005/Covid-tracking-scientists-France-spot-variant.html

    Not sure why the Mail are reporting it now (clicks I guess), its been 3 weeks since it was first reported.

    Edit - I see, its because a preprint paper has come out,

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1

    One that's not our fault?

    Yay !
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%
  • Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%

    I think there’s one (short) honeymoon that’s over..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    MattW said:

    Nobody tell CHB....

    French scientists detect ANOTHER variant linked to travel to Cameroon and say it carries 46 mutations that may make it more vaccine-resistant and infectious (but it is so far NOT outcompeting Omicron)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10365005/Covid-tracking-scientists-France-spot-variant.html

    Not sure why the Mail are reporting it now (clicks I guess), its been 3 weeks since it was first reported.

    Edit - I see, its because a preprint paper has come out,

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1

    One that's not our fault?

    Yay !
    Stuart Ritchie
    @StuartJRitchie
    ·
    41m
    The senior author of the paper that describes this *scary new variant* (https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1) is Didier Raoult - the highly dodgy hydroxychloroquine guy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    Taz said:
    Did they have a tape measure out?

    "They also suggested that the aide was standing just within two metres of Mr Johnson during the recording.

    Under official guidance at the time, those who came within two metres, for more than 15 minutes, of somebody who later tested positive"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    I could not care less. Post vaccination we are now in a clear ideological divide of statist leftwingers who want to impose Covid restrictions forever and rightwingers and libertarians who want us to largely live our lives freely again.

    Boris has correctly positioned himself on the right side of that divide to motivate his base

    Many more Conservative MPs supported the move to introduce covid certification for entry to nightclubs and large venues than opposed it yet all we hear are the "96 rebels". The last I saw, there are 364 Conservative MPs so the 96 represent a minority viewpoint it would seem.

    All Liberal Democrats who voted opposed the measure so in effect if you want an end to restrictions and a return to a normal life you should leave the Conservative Party and join the Liberal Democrats.
    There is a difference between vaxports to impose restrictions on the unvaccinated, who make up most of those in hospital with Covid and imposing restrictions again on the vaccinated majority. I have no problem with the former, I do have a problem with the latter
    Classic bully

    Line up with the majority and beat up the rest
    No, beating up the rest would be mandatory vaccination and forcibly holding down the unvaccinated and jabbing them
    “I have no problem with [imposing restrictions on the unvaccinated]”

    Lock up anyone that disagrees with me!
    If by their choice they are now taking the majority of hospital beds as a result of Covid they must be the ones to face any new restrictions. Not the vaccinated
    again that is good in theory but could be very racially divisive....i dont think we want racial divisions in this country
    Sorry, I don’t give a shit if it’s racially divisive. I don’t know what more can be done to persuade people to be jabbed. It’s totally free, effective, safe, taken up by over 90 % of adults already, including most of ethnic extraction. The vast majority who have done what was asked and protected themselves should not be restricted for the benefit of the idiots, even those with ‘genuine’ concerns.
    Get of Facebook, get of Twitter and look into the real world data.
    your sentiment may be good in theory...but i dont think its wise to inflame tensions in the ethnic communities....these are good people just like you
    Exactly how is it inflaming tensions when the majority of ethnic populations have taken the vaccine?
    because a significantly lower proportion of our ethnic communities have taken the vaccine...hence the discrimination...its quite simple
    I’m a bit thick, how is it discrimination if people choose not to have a free vaccine and then suffer the consquences?
    because you fail to take account of the history especially of the black community with regards to vaccines and the reasons for their suspicions....try and be more considerate to these communities and please dont other them
    I have no idea what othering is. I understand people have had concerns about the vaccines. @TOPPING of this parish, and @Dura_Ace, are two who have expressed concerns. But after more than a year, with 40 million people vaccinated in the U.K., with very few negative incidents, certainly compared with the 150K or so who have died of covid, and the proven efficacy, there are no excuses left. I believe in community, but all have to play their part. I don’t want to forcebably vaccinate people, but if restrictions have to be imposed then those who have chosen not to do the right thing should be the first ones to have curtails on what they can do imposed.
    If that is vaccine passports then so be it.
    To view or treat a person or group of people as intrinsically different to yourself

    I am deeply uncomfortable with a small segment of society who have decided not to take an optimal medical treatment being identified as primarily to blame for the fact that successive government undervalued resiliency in the health (and other strategic) systems
    How is that what is happening? Aren't people arguing on a basis of 'freedom to face consequences for their own actions' kind of thing?

    Can't say I agree with all suggestions on this one, I'm unsure of the approach which does the least harm, but it does appear to me there is overcaution in respect of responding to people who, even now, refuse vaccination. Given the societal impacts there are many things short of forcing people that could be done to strongly encourage.

    Given the things people whinge is an attempt to force them to do things (as has been pointed out your own solution would likely be decried as no different), some harsh encouragement at this point may as well be done.
    They are looking to exclude a group from the full benefits of being citizens.

    A drink driver is breaking the law and can be prosecuted for it.
    If vaxports become the law beyond just nightclubs those institutions would be breaking the law by allowing the unvaccinated entry. Those who have refused to get vaccinated and get boosters are free to do so but not then increase their risk of hospitalisation by going to large or crowded events, then taking hospital beds and treatment from vaccinated cancer patients etc who really need them
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    MattW said:

    Nobody tell CHB....

    French scientists detect ANOTHER variant linked to travel to Cameroon and say it carries 46 mutations that may make it more vaccine-resistant and infectious (but it is so far NOT outcompeting Omicron)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10365005/Covid-tracking-scientists-France-spot-variant.html

    Not sure why the Mail are reporting it now (clicks I guess), its been 3 weeks since it was first reported.

    Edit - I see, its because a preprint paper has come out,

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1

    One that's not our fault?

    Yay !
    Stuart Ritchie
    @StuartJRitchie
    ·
    41m
    The senior author of the paper that describes this *scary new variant* (https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1) is Didier Raoult - the highly dodgy hydroxychloroquine guy.
    It’s probably nothing

    https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1478127904596897792?s=21
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Endillion said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone considered joining the Tories on the basis that £25 represents good value for potentially choosing the next prime minister?

    It's why I joined. At the time, specifically to vote against Johnson.
    That was £25 wasted then.

    Though, just add another £2,999,975 and you could be Lord Endillion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/06/labour-claim-tories-have-a-cash-for-access-culture
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    Well that's RP told then. Luckyguy pronounces.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    Is it just my twitter feed, but it seems since the new year i get shown a lot more of accounts i don't follow or interact with but twitter says you are being shown this because "they are followed by .... who you follow".

    I am now being bombarded with Bad Al and the annoying fox killing lawyer tweets.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Taz said:
    Did they have a tape measure out?

    "They also suggested that the aide was standing just within two metres of Mr Johnson during the recording.

    Under official guidance at the time, those who came within two metres, for more than 15 minutes, of somebody who later tested positive"
    Was his Christmas broadcast 15 minutes long? ;)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%

    I think there’s one (short) honeymoon that’s over..
    Forget tactical unwind. The biggest story of the next UK GE is going to be post-cognitive dissonance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    londoneye said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    I could not care less. Post vaccination we are now in a clear ideological divide of statist leftwingers who want to impose Covid restrictions forever and rightwingers and libertarians who want us to largely live our lives freely again.

    Boris has correctly positioned himself on the right side of that divide to motivate his base

    Many more Conservative MPs supported the move to introduce covid certification for entry to nightclubs and large venues than opposed it yet all we hear are the "96 rebels". The last I saw, there are 364 Conservative MPs so the 96 represent a minority viewpoint it would seem.

    All Liberal Democrats who voted opposed the measure so in effect if you want an end to restrictions and a return to a normal life you should leave the Conservative Party and join the Liberal Democrats.
    There is a difference between vaxports to impose restrictions on the unvaccinated, who make up most of those in hospital with Covid and imposing restrictions again on the vaccinated majority. I have no problem with the former, I do have a problem with the latter
    Classic bully

    Line up with the majority and beat up the rest
    No, beating up the rest would be mandatory vaccination and forcibly holding down the unvaccinated and jabbing them
    “I have no problem with [imposing restrictions on the unvaccinated]”

    Lock up anyone that disagrees with me!
    If by their choice they are now taking the majority of hospital beds as a result of Covid they must be the ones to face any new restrictions. Not the vaccinated
    again that is good in theory but could be very racially divisive....i dont think we want racial divisions in this country
    Sorry, I don’t give a shit if it’s racially divisive. I don’t know what more can be done to persuade people to be jabbed. It’s totally free, effective, safe, taken up by over 90 % of adults already, including most of ethnic extraction. The vast majority who have done what was asked and protected themselves should not be restricted for the benefit of the idiots, even those with ‘genuine’ concerns.
    Get of Facebook, get of Twitter and look into the real world data.
    The government exists to serve the people, not to say “you lot over there can go f*ck yourselves”.

    If you want to charge them more then do so, but don’t other them
    But if you accept charging some people more than you charge others, are you not othering the others?
    No because a person’s taxes are private between them and the government

    Huh? I mean that’s a wierd response. By your definition they are being treated differently, just not in public.
    Othering is all about public segregation and differentiation
    Like we already do with smokers you mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    They haven't actually demonstrated that he broke the rules. But who cares about that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Is it just my twitter feed, but it seems since the new year i get shown a lot more of accounts i don't follow or interact with but twitter says you are being shown this because "they are followed by .... who you follow".

    I am now being bombarded with Bad Al and the annoying fox killing lawyer tweets.

    Not sure I follow?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2022
    Withoit sociobiology there would be no evo psych and without evo psych there would be no pentrating insights like:

    Men evolved to eat pussy to detect infidelity

    https://twitter.com/Evolving_Moloch/status/1440835475757883400?t=l-TiEIfDx72BgAXzQ_fStg&s=19

    And, lesbianism was an evolutionary trait formed by men wanting threesomes

    https://twitter.com/evopsychgoogle/status/1444639887701917696?t=XNYPs20XcSoi-wpHigPM-g&s=19

    This is a ground breaking field and definetly deserves respect.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    We have dozens of photos of Donald Trump with Epstein and Ghislane. Ditto Bill Gates, Bill Clinton. And let's not even start with Alan Dershowitz.

    Google images has a single photo of Epstein and Mandelson together. And by together, I mean "in the same shop". There are no photos that a cursory Google image search finds of Mandelson and Maxwell.

    You are making some fairly wild accusations off incredibly sparse evidence.
    To be fair to both @RochdalePioneers and @bigjohnowls, it is likely that BJO's suggestions PM and Epstein were close friends is not correct but also that Rochdale's claim that BJO was raising the issue just because PM was Jewish is also likely wrong.

    Also, I wouldn't place too much faith in there being only one photo of PM and Epstein. Knowing what we do about Epstein, I find it hard to believe he wouldn't have tried to lure PM in some way nor that PM is smart enough to know
    that sometimes it is best not to be photographed with certain people (especially given what happened to PM in the past).
    My view - fwiw - is that there may be dodgy photos of PM. But if there are, they won't be with someone who hosted parties with underage girls.
    Not unless his tastes have changed.

    Although, that does raise an interesting question. If Epstein's aim in this was to blackmail powerful people, then why would he restrict his activities to girls? The obvious answer is that he was focused on his own pleasure and, if others used them, then that would be an additional benefit if they could be blackmailed. Still, might be worth asking.
    I think there will be a parallel Epstein, whose tastes run differently. We just don't know who that is yet.

    Those who hang out and sleep with young girls, probably like to spend time with other people who do similarly. And I suspect this is also true of those whose interests lie in the other direction.
    Granny grabbers?
  • rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    Well that's RP told then. Luckyguy pronounces.
    Meh. Remember that Jezbollah constantly mispronounced "Jeffrey Epschtein" to heighten the Jewish element. I see anti-semitism in the hard left because the hard left is riddled with anti-semitism. I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on - as I did - to wtaf he meant by trying to associate the noble Lord with a paedophile.

    Again, look at the context. Mandy says Labour is ready to be associated with the word government. BJO can't stand that idea so go after the messenger. "Team Epstein" FFS. Pronounced how Epstein pronounces it? Or how Corbyn does...?
  • Is it just my twitter feed, but it seems since the new year i get shown a lot more of accounts i don't follow or interact with but twitter says you are being shown this because "they are followed by .... who you follow".

    I am now being bombarded with Bad Al and the annoying fox killing lawyer tweets.

    Not sure I follow?
    I don't follow a lot of people e.g. Bad Al, because I know exactly what he will be tweeting all day. However, since the new year, i seem to be having my timeline filled with tweets from these people, with Twitter leaving a note saying "somebody i do follow, follows them". Not retweeted or liked the tweet, just the fact they follow them, twitter has decided i need to seem these tweets.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    60% of voters say they are not willing to pay higher taxes on their energy bills to help reach net zero

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1478124663360348169?s=20
  • HYUFD said:

    60% of voters say they are not willing to pay higher taxes on their energy bills to help reach net zero

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1478124663360348169?s=20

    The classic people are in favour of policies that other people pay for....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    HYUFD said:

    60% of voters say they are not willing to pay higher taxes on their energy bills to help reach net zero

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1478124663360348169?s=20

    What percentage of brexit voters though?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    HYUFD said:

    60% of voters say they are not willing to pay higher taxes on their energy bills to help reach net zero

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1478124663360348169?s=20

    Yet they are already paying green levies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Alistair said:

    Withoit sociobiology there would be no evo psych and without evo psych there would be no pentrating insights like:

    Men evolved to eat pussy to detect infidelity

    https://twitter.com/Evolving_Moloch/status/1440835475757883400?t=l-TiEIfDx72BgAXzQ_fStg&s=19

    And, lesbianism was an evolutionary trait formed by men wanting threesomes

    https://twitter.com/evopsychgoogle/status/1444639887701917696?t=XNYPs20XcSoi-wpHigPM-g&s=19

    This is a ground breaking field and definetly deserves respect.

    Are you REALLY dissing the entire field of evolutionary psychology on the ground that SOME people have used its methods to deduce quirky silliness?

    Jesus Christ that is some I'm-an-idiot shit, right there. I knew you were a lefty, but I didn't think you were yet another dumb lefty. Shame
  • The quality of darts is such much higher than the "good ol days".....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    HYUFD said:

    60% of voters say they are not willing to pay higher taxes on their energy bills to help reach net zero

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1478124663360348169?s=20

    They already are.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    Well that's RP told then. Luckyguy pronounces.
    Pity that I had to.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    You're not allowed in a nightclub if you are unjabbed. You are not allowed to hire a car if you are completely pissed

    Either way, it depends on substances you have voluntarily injected, or rejected- substances which society deems dangerous, in their presence or absence, in certain circumstances (and with the overwhelming backing of science)

    I fail to see any major difference. No jab, no club; completely pissed, no car
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    The quality of darts is such much higher than the "good ol days".....

    Wider trebles and doubles, according to the BDO diehards. Tin hat stuff.

    Delighted Snakebite won. He’s been consistently the best this tournament and had some belting matches.

    It’s a great sport. I love the prominence the greatest show on earth gets this time of year. Still, it’s Q school next then the premier league.

    Just a little disappointed at some of the booing of the Scots and welsh players.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Lee Anderson: "If Labour are ten points ahead in Ashfield I'll show my behind in Tesco's window."
  • Taz said:

    The quality of darts is such much higher than the "good ol days".....

    Wider trebles and doubles, according to the BDO diehards. Tin hat stuff.

    Delighted Snakebite won. He’s been consistently the best this tournament and had some belting matches.

    It’s a great sport. I love the prominence the greatest show on earth gets this time of year. Still, it’s Q school next then the premier league.

    Just a little disappointed at some of the booing of the Scots and welsh players.
    Is BDO still a thing?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    There’s nothing concrete jn the article to say he broke the rules though. It is all weasel words.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    There’s nothing concrete jn the article to say he broke the rules though. It is all weasel words.
    Tape measure out....

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1478132514346737665?t=DPnvSITnNPO-tyjcJ-wwnA&s=19
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    Taz said:

    The quality of darts is such much higher than the "good ol days".....

    Wider trebles and doubles, according to the BDO diehards. Tin hat stuff.

    Delighted Snakebite won. He’s been consistently the best this tournament and had some belting matches.

    It’s a great sport. I love the prominence the greatest show on earth gets this time of year. Still, it’s Q school next then the premier league.

    Just a little disappointed at some of the booing of the Scots and welsh players.
    Is BDO still a thing?
    No, there is a new organisation which cancelled their world tournament due at lakeside this year due to Covid. Nothing at all to do with pitiful ticket sales. Oh no.

    However darts forums and Facebook groups still have Many old BDO diehards who still go on about ‘family’

    The BDO was in terminal decline for many years. They should have merged with the PDC when they had the chance and looked after the amateur game.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Taz said:

    The quality of darts is such much higher than the "good ol days".....

    Wider trebles and doubles, according to the BDO diehards. Tin hat stuff.

    Delighted Snakebite won. He’s been consistently the best this tournament and had some belting matches.

    It’s a great sport. I love the prominence the greatest show on earth gets this time of year. Still, it’s Q school next then the premier league.

    Just a little disappointed at some of the booing of the Scots and welsh players.
    Is BDO still a thing?
    Dead I think. But a phoenix-like WDF (I think) Lakeside tournament was due to start in January; I think they pushed it back to April due to covid.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    There’s nothing concrete jn the article to say he broke the rules though. It is all weasel words.
    Tape measure out....

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1478132514346737665?t=DPnvSITnNPO-tyjcJ-wwnA&s=19
    I think some of the comments from her twitter sycophants have gone to her head, especially the one who put her head on Columbo’s body.
  • Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Lee Anderson: "If Labour are ten points ahead in Ashfield I'll show my behind in Tesco's window."

    A threat like that is one way of keeping the voters onside, I suppose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Lee Anderson: "If Labour are ten points ahead in Ashfield I'll show my behind in Tesco's window."

    If I were Tesco, I'd sue him for loss of business. Even the thought of it puts me off.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    Taz said:

    The quality of darts is such much higher than the "good ol days".....

    Wider trebles and doubles, according to the BDO diehards. Tin hat stuff.

    Delighted Snakebite won. He’s been consistently the best this tournament and had some belting matches.

    It’s a great sport. I love the prominence the greatest show on earth gets this time of year. Still, it’s Q school next then the premier league.

    Just a little disappointed at some of the booing of the Scots and welsh players.
    Is BDO still a thing?
    Dead I think. But a phoenix-like WDF (I think) Lakeside tournament was due to start in January; I think they pushed it back to April due to covid.
    Nothing to do with only selling a couple of thousand tickets, of course. No main channel taking TV coverage either.

    It won’t happen.

    There is more interest in the seniors league.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    There’s nothing concrete jn the article to say he broke the rules though. It is all weasel words.
    Tape measure out....

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1478132514346737665?t=DPnvSITnNPO-tyjcJ-wwnA&s=19
    Yet no proof he did break the rules. Unless they have demonstrated that the cameraman was at the same distance for 15 minutes. It's story because it's easy to claim and utterly impossible to prove wrong.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?

    How liquid are the markets?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Lee Anderson: "If Labour are ten points ahead in Ashfield I'll show my behind in Tesco's window."

    If I were Tesco, I'd sue him for loss of business. Even the thought of it puts me off.
    Fret not. Private polling for Tories shows Labour are only 8 points ahead in Ashfield.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    RPs first response to me was completely unacceptable.

    Its not the first time he has tried to accuse me of saying something about someone because they are Jewish.

    I have had enough and will now take the matter further.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?

    Because of the topic of the header. Conservative poll recovery => no leadership contest this year, and Sunak's best chance is seen as being if there is a contest soon.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    RobD said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    There’s nothing concrete jn the article to say he broke the rules though. It is all weasel words.
    Tape measure out....

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1478132514346737665?t=DPnvSITnNPO-tyjcJ-wwnA&s=19
    Yet no proof he did break the rules. Unless they have demonstrated that the cameraman was at the same distance for 15 minutes. It's story because it's easy to claim and utterly impossible to prove wrong.
    Given the choice of believing an unnamed Daily Mirror source or a Downing Street spokesperson, I will go with the former.

    Goodnight all - back to work tomorrow.
  • Endillion said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?

    Because of the topic of the header. Conservative poll recovery => no leadership contest this year, and Sunak's best chance is seen as being if there is a contest soon.
    Two other factors, one clear and one speculative.

    The clear one is the polling showing a small polling boost for Rishi-Conservatives. Real, but not transformative. If the Conservatives have a popularity problem, Rishi isn't a big enough solution.

    The other speculative bit is... the sense that Dishy Rishi is also Sneaky Sunak. Whether it's accurate or not, there's the impression that all these leaks (the garden meeting photo, the Truss trade meeting) don't not have his fingerprints on them. If he tries too hard and too ruthlessly, he won't get the gig.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    RobD said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    Of course the rules don't apply to Bozo. Self entitled arrogant fecker.
    There’s nothing concrete jn the article to say he broke the rules though. It is all weasel words.
    Tape measure out....

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1478132514346737665?t=DPnvSITnNPO-tyjcJ-wwnA&s=19
    Yet no proof he did break the rules. Unless they have demonstrated that the cameraman was at the same distance for 15 minutes. It's story because it's easy to claim and utterly impossible to prove wrong.
    Given the choice of believing an unnamed Daily Mirror source or a Downing Street spokesperson, I will go with the former.

    Goodnight all - back to work tomorrow.
    So much for innocent until proven guilty.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Body not even cold....

    The Complicated Legacy of E. O. Wilson

    We must reckon with his and other scientists’ racist ideas if we want an equitable future

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-complicated-legacy-of-e-o-wilson/

    Utter gibberish, smearing a great scientist, and the author does not even understand basic science
    Yet is rather worryingly an academic.....who the scientific american think is worthy of publishing an opinion piece.
    The article is much discussed on Twitter

    The verdict is, this may be the end of "Scientific" American?

    An astonishingly stupid column, written by a woman with no basic command of the facts. Trashing a brilliant scientist. I get that E O "Sociobiology" Wilson is not everyone's cup of tea, you can't adduce huge evidence that creatures order themselves according to evolutionary principles, which impact mentality, sociology and behaviour as much as physiology, without annoying the majorly religious or the insanely lefty, but usually the objections need scientific evidence, to be sustained in a major scientific journal

    Here there is no evidence. It is Woke opinion which is offended

    People who view the world in this way, it must be incredibly tiring in which you are seeing absolutely everything ever as racist discrimination.

    Normal distribution....racist.....

    Doc Brown "Everybody's Racist"
    https://youtu.be/JrK_HVGOnUo
    Yep, absolutely crystal clear that the author has no idea of what normal distribution is.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Endillion said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?

    Because of the topic of the header. Conservative poll recovery => no leadership contest this year, and Sunak's best chance is seen as being if there is a contest soon.
    Two other factors, one clear and one speculative.

    The clear one is the polling showing a small polling boost for Rishi-Conservatives. Real, but not transformative. If the Conservatives have a popularity problem, Rishi isn't a big enough solution.

    The other speculative bit is... the sense that Dishy Rishi is also Sneaky Sunak. Whether it's accurate or not, there's the impression that all these leaks (the garden meeting photo, the Truss trade meeting) don't not have his fingerprints on them. If he tries too hard and too ruthlessly, he won't get the gig.
    The polling boost was Sunak cut the Labour lead to 3%. Boris has already cut the Labour lead in the latest poll to 3% anyway.

    Sunak is the Tory David Miliband
  • rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    RPs first response to me was completely unacceptable.

    Its not the first time he has tried to accuse me of saying something about someone because they are Jewish.

    I have had enough and will now take the matter further.
    I've already apologised.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/LD and even Con/LD/DUP would still have less seats than Labour/SNP on this poll but not less votes. Although the Conservatives would still be narrowly largest party on seats
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con too poisonous now. Lib Dems learnt their lesson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?

    Because of the topic of the header. Conservative poll recovery => no leadership contest this year, and Sunak's best chance is seen as being if there is a contest soon.
    Two other factors, one clear and one speculative.

    The clear one is the polling showing a small polling boost for Rishi-Conservatives. Real, but not transformative. If the Conservatives have a popularity problem, Rishi isn't a big enough solution.

    The other speculative bit is... the sense that Dishy Rishi is also Sneaky Sunak. Whether it's accurate or not, there's the impression that all these leaks (the garden meeting photo, the Truss trade meeting) don't not have his fingerprints on them. If he tries too hard and too ruthlessly, he won't get the gig.
    The polling boost was Sunak cut the Labour lead to 3%. Boris has already cut the Labour lead in the latest poll to 3% anyway.

    Sunak is the Tory David Miliband
    Who is Tory James Purnell? Walking out of Cabinet expecting Sunak to follow and trigger leadership election?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con too poisonous now. Lib Dems learnt their lesson.
    That presumes that Labour would be less so. Merkel and Disraeli were both right about coalitions...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/LD and even Con/LD/DUP would still have less seats than Labour/SNP on this poll but not less votes. Although the Conservatives would still be narrowly largest party on seats
    Yes that's true - I was speculating more generally about a hung Parliament in which many options lead to a possible government.

    I suppose a grand coalition on the German model is unthinkable.

    Maybe a new election within a few months is the likeliest? Boris stays in No 10 because no alternatives are possible, there is a VoNC, then another election?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    RPs first response to me was completely unacceptable.

    Its not the first time he has tried to accuse me of saying something about someone because they are Jewish.

    I have had enough and will now take the matter further.
    I've already apologised.
    "Well I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on" would indeed have been an acceptable apology.

    Your actual one below not so much, your obsession needs to stop


    Meh. Remember that Jezbollah constantly mispronounced "Jeffrey Epschtein" to heighten the Jewish element. I see anti-semitism in the hard left because the hard left is riddled with anti-semitism. I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on - as I did - to wtaf he meant by trying to associate the noble Lord with a paedophile.

    Again, look at the context. Mandy says Labour is ready to be associated with the word government. BJO can't stand that idea so go after the messenger. "Team Epstein" FFS. Pronounced how Epstein pronounces it? Or how Corbyn does...?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/LD and even Con/LD/DUP would still have less seats than Labour/SNP on this poll but not less votes. Although the Conservatives would still be narrowly largest party on seats
    Yes that's true - I was speculating more generally about a hung Parliament in which many options lead to a possible government.

    I suppose a grand coalition on the German model is unthinkable.

    Maybe a new election within a few months is the likeliest? Boris stays in No 10 because no alternatives are possible, there is a VoNC, then another election?
    How could Boris credibly do that having lost the election? Surely he'd need to be replaced?
  • HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting in both Next PM market and Next Con Leader market. Why? Night of the Long Knives in the offing?

    Because of the topic of the header. Conservative poll recovery => no leadership contest this year, and Sunak's best chance is seen as being if there is a contest soon.
    Two other factors, one clear and one speculative.

    The clear one is the polling showing a small polling boost for Rishi-Conservatives. Real, but not transformative. If the Conservatives have a popularity problem, Rishi isn't a big enough solution.

    The other speculative bit is... the sense that Dishy Rishi is also Sneaky Sunak. Whether it's accurate or not, there's the impression that all these leaks (the garden meeting photo, the Truss trade meeting) don't not have his fingerprints on them. If he tries too hard and too ruthlessly, he won't get the gig.
    The polling boost was Sunak cut the Labour lead to 3%. Boris has already cut the Labour lead in the latest poll to 3% anyway.

    Sunak is the Tory David Miliband
    Wasn't one of the quirks of the "hypothetical leader" polling that Conservatives (leader BoJo) did worse than Conservatives (no named leader)?

    So if Boris goes away for a bit, on holiday to take a purely hypothetical example, Conservative ratings improve? (Given the horlicks he was making of things in November/December, doing nothing might have been a genuine improvement).

    Win-win in that case.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Goodnight all

    Hopefully more polls to come this week so we can see if todays Poll was a blip for Lab. or the start of a Tory recovery trend.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    edited January 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    RPs first response to me was completely unacceptable.

    Its not the first time he has tried to accuse me of saying something about someone because they are Jewish.

    I have had enough and will now take the matter further.
    I've already apologised.
    "Well I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on" would indeed have been an acceptable apology.

    Your actual one below not so much, your obsession needs to stop


    Meh. Remember that Jezbollah constantly mispronounced "Jeffrey Epschtein" to heighten the Jewish element. I see anti-semitism in the hard left because the hard left is riddled with anti-semitism. I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on - as I did - to wtaf he meant by trying to associate the noble Lord with a paedophile.

    Again, look at the context. Mandy says Labour is ready to be associated with the word government. BJO can't stand that idea so go after the messenger. "Team Epstein" FFS. Pronounced how Epstein pronounces it? Or how Corbyn does...?
    I am sorry for the comment "apparently he is guilty of being Jewish" and withdraw it. I am sorry for questioning how you would pronounce "Epstein" and withdraw it.

    I don't think you are an anti-semite. I do think that your "Team Epstein" comment against Peter Mandelson is outrageous as others have also addressed. If I have have gone in "like a steam train" against you I am sorry. This is a political debate forum. We all go at it sometimes, I'm happy to say sorry if it goes too far.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Lee Anderson: "If Labour are ten points ahead in Ashfield I'll show my behind in Tesco's window."

    If I were Tesco, I'd sue him for loss of business. Even the thought of it puts me off.
    Yes, there’s always that risk that you are down Tesco’s when Anderson steps into the window. Better play it safe and head to Sainsbury’s.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    A weakened SNP? How many seats are you predicting they’ll lose to the SCons, just for the record?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
    Agreed. The Union is all-important

    If it comes to it, the UK parties must do a Scotland-only Coalition which completely ignores the SNP, and then revolves power back to Westminster, so that another referendum cannot be called for 30 years

    Let this be a stipulation for allowing the SNP back into power. A generation = 30 years. The next indyref will be in 2044 at the earliest, and if that is lost, then 2074. No nation can be held hostage every parliament by some renegade province
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    A weakened SNP? How many seats are you predicting they’ll lose to the SCons, just for the record?
    On this poll the SCons would gain Gordon and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock from the SNP
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    Labour would be insane to go into a grand coalition with the Tories. That really would destroy the union, as well any hope for a Labour recovery in Scotland.
  • Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
    Agreed. The Union is all-important

    If it comes to it, the UK parties must do a Scotland-only Coalition which completely ignores the SNP, and then revolves power back to Westminster, so that another referendum cannot be called for 30 years

    Let this be a stipulation for allowing the SNP back into power. A generation = 30 years. The next indyref will be in 2044 at the earliest, and if that is lost, then 2074. No nation can be held hostage every parliament by some renegade province
    I cannot see how the SNP will get involved in any government in the UK - they want to leave.

    I think there is a valid point that the next referendum needs to be framed in an actual "once in a generation" harness in the way that 2014 was not. Can't complain about the people of Scotland voting in record numbers to re-elect a 4th term SNP government pledged to a referendum when nothing formal stops that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    Labour would be insane to go into a grand coalition with the Tories. That really would destroy the union, as well any hope for a Labour recovery in Scotland.

    The choice on this poll for Starmer is do a deal with the Tories or not but give the SNP indyref2 and devomax.

    I agree he would likely do the latter
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/LD and even Con/LD/DUP would still have less seats than Labour/SNP on this poll but not less votes. Although the Conservatives would still be narrowly largest party on seats
    Yes that's true - I was speculating more generally about a hung Parliament in which many options lead to a possible government.

    I suppose a grand coalition on the German model is unthinkable.

    Maybe a new election within a few months is the likeliest? Boris stays in No 10 because no alternatives are possible, there is a VoNC, then another election?
    How could Boris credibly do that having lost the election? Surely he'd need to be replaced?
    I think the convention is that the PM stays until an alternative commands a majority in the Commons, which was how Brown clung on as long as he did in 2010.
  • Labour would be insane to go into a grand coalition with the Tories. That really would destroy the union, as well any hope for a Labour recovery in Scotland.

    Never ignore the PB S***** E*****s, their record speaks for itself.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
    Agreed. The Union is all-important

    If it comes to it, the UK parties must do a Scotland-only Coalition which completely ignores the SNP, and then revolves power back to Westminster, so that another referendum cannot be called for 30 years

    Let this be a stipulation for allowing the SNP back into power. A generation = 30 years. The next indyref will be in 2044 at the earliest, and if that is lost, then 2074. No nation can be held hostage every parliament by some renegade province
    I don't think the SNP will have much influence (at least on the terms of a 2nd indy referendum) in a hung parliament unless the result is something like Lab 260-270 SNP 50 with the Lib Dems nowhere. I would be really surprised now if any referendum happens in the medium term under Sturgeon or her successor. That said I think the SNP is pretty much guaranteed 40% whatever happens now, although a chunk of that vote is soft no voters who like the SNP.

    I think the SNP dictating the terms of a 2nd referendum is massively problematic TBH even if I do not agree with the Tories' ultra unionist stance I would have preferred if May had called the SNP's bluff in 2017 but we are where we are now.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
    Agreed. The Union is all-important

    If it comes to it, the UK parties must do a Scotland-only Coalition which completely ignores the SNP, and then revolves power back to Westminster, so that another referendum cannot be called for 30 years

    Let this be a stipulation for allowing the SNP back into power. A generation = 30 years. The next indyref will be in 2044 at the earliest, and if that is lost, then 2074. No nation can be held hostage every parliament by some renegade province
    I cannot see how the SNP will get involved in any government in the UK - they want to leave.

    I think there is a valid point that the next referendum needs to be framed in an actual "once in a generation" harness in the way that 2014 was not. Can't complain about the people of Scotland voting in record numbers to re-elect a 4th term SNP government pledged to a referendum when nothing formal stops that.
    No. They had their vote in 2014. Enough now. They should have said YES if they wanted YES. They didn't

    30 years minimum. A generation. Next vote in 2044. No other European country would tolerate this continuous, destabilising nonsense, indeed no other major country on earth

    This will benefit Scots as they will look hard at the SNP, finally, and think: are they the best party to run Scotland with the very considerable autonomy we already have? Then they will likely get rid of these clearly corrupt SNP idiots. Maybe Alba will win, who knows

    If the Scots don't like that, they are free to go the route of Ireland in the early 20th century, except with the knowledge that they - the Scots - were actually given a free democratic choice to leave the UK, which they decided not to choose, so let that hang on the heads of the violent
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 319
    I have a strong feeling that Scots are beginning to get pretty cheesed off with Nicola and the rest of the Scottish Nazi Party*. Shutting everything down for New Year for no great purpose has, for many, been the last straw. People are also seeing how incompetent they have been.

    * SNP founded in 1934, modelled on Hilter's nationalists; campaigned in WW2 for Scots not to join the 'English' army
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    franklyn said:

    I have a strong feeling that Scots are beginning to get pretty cheesed off with Nicola and the rest of the Scottish Nazi Party*. Shutting everything down for New Year for no great purpose has, for many, been the last straw. People are also seeing how incompetent they have been.

    * SNP founded in 1934, modelled on Hilter's nationalists; campaigned in WW2 for Scots not to join the 'English' army

    Saying "Scottish Nazi party" immediately discredits everything else in the post.
  • Tonight's poll must surely be an outlier :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Body not even cold....

    The Complicated Legacy of E. O. Wilson

    We must reckon with his and other scientists’ racist ideas if we want an equitable future

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-complicated-legacy-of-e-o-wilson/

    Utter gibberish, smearing a great scientist, and the author does not even understand basic science
    Yet is rather worryingly an academic.....who the scientific american think is worthy of publishing an opinion piece.
    The article is much discussed on Twitter

    The verdict is, this may be the end of "Scientific" American?

    An astonishingly stupid column, written by a woman with no basic command of the facts. Trashing a brilliant scientist. I get that E O "Sociobiology" Wilson is not everyone's cup of tea, you can't adduce huge evidence that creatures order themselves according to evolutionary principles, which impact mentality, sociology and behaviour as much as physiology, without annoying the majorly religious or the insanely lefty, but usually the objections need scientific evidence, to be sustained in a major scientific journal

    Here there is no evidence. It is Woke opinion which is offended

    People who view the world in this way, it must be incredibly tiring in which you are seeing absolutely everything ever as racist discrimination.

    Normal distribution....racist.....

    Doc Brown "Everybody's Racist"
    https://youtu.be/JrK_HVGOnUo
    Yep, absolutely crystal clear that the author has no idea of what normal distribution is.
    It's amazing how many otherwise intelligent people lack a basic understanding of statistics.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
    Agreed. The Union is all-important

    If it comes to it, the UK parties must do a Scotland-only Coalition which completely ignores the SNP, and then revolves power back to Westminster, so that another referendum cannot be called for 30 years

    Let this be a stipulation for allowing the SNP back into power. A generation = 30 years. The next indyref will be in 2044 at the earliest, and if that is lost, then 2074. No nation can be held hostage every parliament by some renegade province
    I cannot see how the SNP will get involved in any government in the UK - they want to leave.

    I think there is a valid point that the next referendum needs to be framed in an actual "once in a generation" harness in the way that 2014 was not. Can't complain about the people of Scotland voting in record numbers to re-elect a 4th term SNP government pledged to a referendum when nothing formal stops that.
    No. They had their vote in 2014. Enough now. They should have said YES if they wanted YES. They didn't

    30 years minimum. A generation. Next vote in 2044. No other European country would tolerate this continuous, destabilising nonsense, indeed no other major country on earth

    This will benefit Scots as they will look hard at the SNP, finally, and think: are they the best party to run Scotland with the very considerable autonomy we already have? Then they will likely get rid of these clearly corrupt SNP idiots. Maybe Alba will win, who knows

    If the Scots don't like that, they are free to go the route of Ireland in the early 20th century, except with the knowledge that they - the Scots - were actually given a free democratic choice to leave the UK, which they decided not to choose, so let that hang on the heads of the violent
    Remember that I don't support the SNP and campaigned against them in May. I'm not advocating independence - I am a federalist.

    But - and it's a big but - despite HYUFD endlessly saying so there was no once in a generation restriction on the referendum. And there is now a clear democratic mandate for a rerun.

    Saying "no" only increases the likelihood that when it eventually happens the vote is yes...
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293


    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/SNP.
    Wouldn't put it past them.
    I would prefer a Grand Coalition with Starmer Labour German style than any deal with the SNP
    Agreed. The Union is all-important

    If it comes to it, the UK parties must do a Scotland-only Coalition which completely ignores the SNP, and then revolves power back to Westminster, so that another referendum cannot be called for 30 years

    Let this be a stipulation for allowing the SNP back into power. A generation = 30 years. The next indyref will be in 2044 at the earliest, and if that is lost, then 2074. No nation can be held hostage every parliament by some renegade province
    I don't think the SNP will have much influence (at least on the terms of a 2nd indy referendum) in a hung parliament unless the result is something like Lab 260-270 SNP 50 with the Lib Dems nowhere. I would be really surprised now if any referendum happens in the medium term under Sturgeon or her successor. That said I think the SNP is pretty much guaranteed 40% whatever happens now, although a chunk of that vote is soft no voters who like the SNP.

    I think the SNP dictating the terms of a 2nd referendum is massively problematic TBH even if I do not agree with the Tories' ultra unionist stance I would have preferred if May had called the SNP's bluff in 2017 but we are where we are now.

    Lab + Lib Dem < CON, but Lab + SNP = de facto or de jure commons majority is a situation where they'd be in a position to dictate things.
    But that's a narrow window.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022
    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juicy Red Wall splits in this poll, eg

    West Midlands L 48% C 33%
    NW L 53% C 31%
    Y&H L 54% C 27%


    The Conservatives also well ahead in the South East and East, just 5% behind in the Northeast and also only 5% behind in London and up to 28% in Scotland

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-january-2022/
    Which only highlights the weakness of Con vote distribution: piling up votes where you either don’t need them or can’t win, while shedding votes in the Red Wall.
    No, there are plenty of seats in the South East the LDs are targeting which would stay Con on that poll. Redwall seats in the Northeast the Cons won in 2019 would also stay blue.

    There would actually be a swing to the Conservatives in Scotland and London on this poll on 2019, likely in reaction to Sturgeon's and Khan's restrictions. So the Conservatives could even gain seats from the SNP and from Labour in London.

    That would be enough to still give the Tories most seats, even if losses in the Midlands and the Northwest and Yorkshire saw them lose their majority
    While losing seats in the South West, Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and Wales. So many in fact you’d be out of government.
    Yet still with most seats and with Starmer reliant on a weakened SNP to become PM
    Would that actually happen in practice? Starmer might be forced to rule out deals with the SNP during an election campaign. And the SNP and Labour have always hated each other north of the border.

    And if it doesn't happen, what would? Con/LD again?
    Con/LD and even Con/LD/DUP would still have less seats than Labour/SNP on this poll but not less votes. Although the Conservatives would still be narrowly largest party on seats
    Yes that's true - I was speculating more generally about a hung Parliament in which many options lead to a possible government.

    I suppose a grand coalition on the German model is unthinkable.

    Maybe a new election within a few months is the likeliest? Boris stays in No 10 because no alternatives are possible, there is a VoNC, then another election?
    How could Boris credibly do that having lost the election? Surely he'd need to be replaced?
    I think the convention is that the PM stays until an alternative commands a majority in the Commons, which was how Brown clung on as long as he did in 2010.
    Which wasn't that long. Certainly not long enough for a new election.
    However. My point was. The Tories would be faced with a new election with a leader who had just lost many more than 50 seats.
    That couldn't be credible, could it? He'd have to resign as Tory leader.
    Caretaker PM till the election? Sure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    For @londoneye

    If you wish me to unblock you, please

    (a) respond to the email I sent you with the email you registered with
    and
    (b) please post from an IP that is not on a bunch of spam lists

    Thx
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    RPs first response to me was completely unacceptable.

    Its not the first time he has tried to accuse me of saying something about someone because they are Jewish.

    I have had enough and will now take the matter further.
    I've already apologised.
    "Well I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on" would indeed have been an acceptable apology.

    Your actual one below not so much, your obsession needs to stop


    Meh. Remember that Jezbollah constantly mispronounced "Jeffrey Epschtein" to heighten the Jewish element. I see anti-semitism in the hard left because the hard left is riddled with anti-semitism. I am happy to apologise openly to BJO and move on - as I did - to wtaf he meant by trying to associate the noble Lord with a paedophile.

    Again, look at the context. Mandy says Labour is ready to be associated with the word government. BJO can't stand that idea so go after the messenger. "Team Epstein" FFS. Pronounced how Epstein pronounces it? Or how Corbyn does...?
    I am sorry for the comment "apparently he is guilty of being Jewish" and withdraw it. I am sorry for questioning how you would pronounce "Epstein" and withdraw it.

    I don't think you are an anti-semite. I do think that your "Team Epstein" comment against Peter Mandelson is outrageous as others have also addressed. If I have have gone in "like a steam train" against you I am sorry. This is a political debate forum. We all go at it sometimes, I'm happy to say sorry if it goes too far.
    ok thanks we will leave it at that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/mac123_m/status/1478064286127775744/photo/1

    Labour Friends of Epstein reckon they are ready for Government

    Hmmm. I don't think anyone has ever accused Mandelson of paedophilia.
    Apparently he is guilty of being Jewish. .
    In your tiny little warped mind.

    Petey was a close friend of Epstein nothing more as far as we no so far
    I think that's stretching it: you can find a pictures of the two of them in a shop together from 2005, and it is assumed they were there together. Likewise I believe there is evidence of at least one phone call.

    But that's a long way way from "close friend".
    Epstein called him Petey

    I assume you would also think he wasnt a close friend of Ms Maxwell?

    Its deeply desperately funny. "Must stop Starmer". I know - lets try and associate them with the Epstein scandal! That will make people vote Tory and that way lies True Socialism.
    You may be right about BJO's underlying motivations, but this line of posting reflects very poorly on you. Firstly you came around like a steam train with accusations that BJO was making the link based on nothing more than what you allege to be an antisemitic world view, then he discloses that there was indeed at least an acquaintance between the two men, and sadly you don't have the class to be even slightly abashed. I think an apology is merited.
    RPs first response to me was completely unacceptable.

    Its not the first time he has tried to accuse me of saying something about someone because they are Jewish.

    I have had enough and will now take the matter further.
    Whereas your libelling of Peter Mandelson was what exactly?
This discussion has been closed.