How Johnson did in 2021 according to YouGov’s “Well/Badly” ratings – politicalbetting.com

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How Johnson did in 2021 according to YouGov’s “Well/Badly” ratings – politicalbetting.com

It is the last day of the year I thought it might be good to have a few posts just looking back at how the data has changed.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

DavidL

So you are saying there was a missed opportunity for another election?

MikeSmithson

DavidL said:

So you are saying there was a missed opportunity for another election?

Maybe we will be looking back to May 2021 and saying just that.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

So you are saying there was a missed opportunity for another election?

No, once the ratings end up in the toilet, that's where they stay, at the next general election they'll get a really low share of the vote but the electoral geography saves them from an actual pasting.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

eek

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

Carnyx

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

I was going to ask DavidL too the moment I read what he said.

Eabhal

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

DavidL

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

Lots. Recent examples would be not to lockdown at Christmas and to boost the boosters. He is not shy of decisions. Whether he makes the right ones is more up for debate (although I certainly agree with these two).

NickPalmer

On a lighter note, I'm really enjoying the Guardian's Winter of Love anecdotes - by turns, touching, sad, and just funny, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/dec/31/my-winter-of-love-rescued-my-partner-from-rabid-dogs

Carnyx

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

I'm actually wondering about long covid in the latter context.

TheScreamingEagles

For the Boris Johnson fans who are hoping/thinking this is the 2015 GE redux, -37 is the lowest rating David Cameron (pbuh) achieved in that Parliament.

Eabhal

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Sofa incident? I get sort of Duke of Argyll vibes off Johnson.

DavidL

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

You are going the wrong way. You should be going to England if you want to celebrate Hogmanay this year.

StuartDickson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

If anything, Johnson is even more deranged than Brown.

One always had the suspicion that Brown knew, deep down, that he was a fraud, whereas Johnson seems to actually believe that he is the reincarnation of Churchill.

TOPPING

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Great to hear. Have a good one.

JosiasJessop

NickPalmer said:

On a lighter note, I'm really enjoying the Guardian's Winter of Love anecdotes - by turns, touching, sad, and just funny, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/dec/31/my-winter-of-love-rescued-my-partner-from-rabid-dogs

Peak Guardian:

"Adam and I had hit it off at a silent meditation retreat in Minneapolis,"

I do wonder if the Guardian has any idea about the lives of most people.

BartholomewRoberts

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

Yes we've had this discussion many times already eek. Lifting all Covid restrictions in the summer, before almost any other developed nation in the planet and uniquely in Europe.

Had he left the decision late, we'd have maintained face masks and the rest of that garbage through the summer but we didn't.

Eabhal

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

You are going the wrong way. You should be going to England if you want to celebrate Hogmanay this year.

Someone needs to get a "Welcome to England - Land of the Free" sign up on the M74 pronto. Enough Tory farmers there to find someone who'd be up for it

Carnyx

JosiasJessop said:

NickPalmer said:

On a lighter note, I'm really enjoying the Guardian's Winter of Love anecdotes - by turns, touching, sad, and just funny, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/dec/31/my-winter-of-love-rescued-my-partner-from-rabid-dogs

Peak Guardian:

"Adam and I had hit it off at a silent meditation retreat in Minneapolis,"

I do wonder if the Guardian has any idea about the lives of most people.

Its previous Christmas anecdote series was more [edit] typical!

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/dec/20/no-tree-no-presents-no-tv-worst-christmas-ever

ydoethur

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Sofa incident? I get sort of Duke of Argyll vibes off Johnson.

Sofa so shit.

And that's even before we talk about his interior decor...

BartholomewRoberts

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

You are going the wrong way. You should be going to England if you want to celebrate Hogmanay this year.

An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman walk into a bar . . . .

Carnyx

BartholomewRoberts said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

Yes we've had this discussion many times already eek. Lifting all Covid restrictions in the summer, before almost any other developed nation in the planet and uniquely in Europe.

Had he left the decision late, we'd have maintained face masks and the rest of that garbage through the summer but we didn't.

Question is who made the decision for him. The pre-Christmas period certainly raises that issue.

TimS

Every PM has a moment when they seem to pass the point of no return. Either because of a big external shock (Major, Callaghan), a big electoral shock (May, Cameron), a fateful political decision (Brown) or a major resignation (Blair, Thatcher).

For Boris it will surely be a whole new category: the Peppa Pig speech, a true emperors new clothes moment.

Andy_JS

In hindsight, one of the most bizarre moments of 2021 was when almost everyone described the fact there was a 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives at the Batley and Spen by-election, which reduced the Labour majority from 3,500 to 323 votes, as a "disappointing result" for the Tories. Compared to Chesham & Amersham or North Shropshire it was an excellent result. It just shows how spin can re-frame almost anything.

StuartDickson

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

Charles

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

TheScreamingEagles

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

ydoethur

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

You are going the wrong way. You should be going to England if you want to celebrate Hogmanay this year.

An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman walk into a bar . . . .

A Welshman, a Scotsman and an Englishwoman all walk into a bar.

The Welshman orders a pint of Brains, downs it in one and shouts 'Fuck Drakeford!'

The Scotsman orders a Glenlivet, downs it in one and shouts 'Fuck Sturgeon!'

The Englishwoman orders a lemonade. The other two look at her, surprised, and she says, 'I don't need to get drunk, Boris has already fucked me.'

And with that mild xenophobia, I need to do some shopping.

StuartDickson

DavidL said:

So you are saying there was a missed opportunity for another election?

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Carnyx

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

BartholomewRoberts

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

Yes we've had this discussion many times already eek. Lifting all Covid restrictions in the summer, before almost any other developed nation in the planet and uniquely in Europe.

Had he left the decision late, we'd have maintained face masks and the rest of that garbage through the summer but we didn't.

Question is who made the decision for him. The pre-Christmas period certainly raises that issue.

The pre-Christmas period shows him uniquely of all the leaders not imposing even more destructive restrictions. That's a good thing!

The argument that he doesn't make decisions seems to come from those who're acting as if the only decision to make is how hard a restriction to impose and how soon can it be imposed.

TheScreamingEagles

Andy_JS said:

In hindsight, one of the most bizarre moments of 2021 was when almost everyone described the fact there was a 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives at the Batley and Spen by-election, which reduced the Labour majority from 3,500 to 323 votes, as a "disappointing result" for the Tories. Compared to Chesham & Amersham or North Shropshire it was an excellent result. It just shows how spin can re-frame almost anything.

That was the Galloway factor, he was always going to take a disproportionate number of votes from Labour.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

StuartDickson

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

So?

Are you genuinely going to argue that Boris Johnson’s ratings have gone up in Scotland in the last month? Your own graph and article heavily indicate the opposite.

pigeon

stodge said:

Like you, I don't currently see an argument for "lockdown" (a ludicrous catch-all word which means whatever you want it to mean). The question is whether the current "Plan B" restrictions can be relaxed back to "Plan A" in the next month or so - I suspect not.

We should have evidence from the case numbers in the next fortnight or so as to whether or not mild to moderate restrictions are of any use against Omicron, simply by comparing the case rates in England (fewer restrictions) with the rest of the UK (more restrictions.)

If the restrictions appear to be useless then they really ought to be dumped, but like you I doubt that they will under the prevailing circumstances. Which would be entirely about political optics rather than epidemiology. As Robert has grown fond of saying recently, if the hospitals are under pressure (which they undoubtedly will be for some time) then something must be done. Plan B is something. So we're going to do it.

Besides, plan B is pretty minimal - not like the business closures and capacity limits elsewhere, which really do hamstring businesses. I imagine that the extra rules will be with us until some point in the Spring.

Carnyx

ydoethur said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

You are going the wrong way. You should be going to England if you want to celebrate Hogmanay this year.

An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman walk into a bar . . . .

A Welshman, a Scotsman and an Englishwoman all walk into a bar.

The Welshman orders a pint of Brains, downs it in one and shouts 'Fuck Drakeford!'

The Scotsman orders a Glenlivet, downs it in one and shouts 'Fuck Sturgeon!'

The Englishwoman orders a lemonade. The other two look at her, surprised, and she says, 'I don't need to get drunk, Boris has already fucked me.'

And with that mild xenophobia, I need to do some shopping.

Very responsible of the young lady, given the other obvious consequence ...

Mexicanpete

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

I will grant you the point that Boris isn't permanently depressed but that could equally be a front. Most comedians hide their depression behind a front of public happiness.

The tears of a clown,
when there's no one around.

StuartDickson

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

He’s not very good at looking after his own interests either.

Obese.
History of drug and alcohol abuse.
Unwell.
Repeatedly sacked from jobs and given horrendous references by former employers.
Absent and negligent parent.
Repeatedly unfaithful to partners.
Miserable.
A cad.
A bounder.

Looking after your own interests means being happy and making those around you happy. The two are closely linked. Boris Johnson is a spectacular failure.

Alistair

FTPT:

Failed to give Alistair's Official SA Update yesterday

Projected Week 52 Admissions: 7893 (down 2% - let's call that flat)
Projected Week 52 Deaths: 715 (up 20%)

Ventilated: 3.4%
Oxygenated: 15.1%

For @Andy_JS , based on hospital admissions we are approx 3 weeks behind SA but there are lots of metrics you could use to determine how far behind we are so treat that with loads of salt.

The big cofounder for knowing how far behind we are is that SA had very low Delta admissions (585 admissions in the week before Omicron took off) whereas we had loads.

Alistair

Andy_JS said:

In hindsight, one of the most bizarre moments of 2021 was when almost everyone described the fact there was a 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives at the Batley and Spen by-election, which reduced the Labour majority from 3,500 to 323 votes, as a "disappointing result" for the Tories. Compared to Chesham & Amersham or North Shropshire it was an excellent result. It just shows how spin can re-frame almost anything.

Cons were backed to prohibitively short priced favourites. I think I got 7/1 on Lab in the end.

Charles

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

StuartDickson

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

You are going the wrong way. You should be going to England if you want to celebrate Hogmanay this year.

An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman walk into a bar . . . .

If only the English enjoyed their own company…

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Lied more than once English idiot.

kjh

All from previous thread:

@NickPalmer re average yes I agree but not really the point @HYUFD made a statement that was blatantly wrong and as @BartholomewRoberts @IshmaelZ stated the median average would be higher still.

As @Charles pointed out and as I have done on numerous times before @HYUFD can have a quite valid argument that he then completely devalues by using incorrect maths to justify it and thereby completely undermines it. On several occasions I have agreed with the point @HYUFD is making but have been embarrassed to support it because of the nonsense argument. And for instance in the last thread to top it all he answered my point be comparing two unrelated sets.

@Charles re your life insurance story. There was an example on the TV recently re a lady in France I think who had achieved a ripe old age who had outlived the person who bought her life insurance policy by decades. It has to make you smile even if you are on the wrong side of it.

Carnyx

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Gordon Brown was never defeated at a general election outright unlike Ed Milliband and Corbyn, he lost his majority in 2010 yes but Cameron failed to win a Tory majority either

IshmaelZ

kjh said:

All from previous thread:

@NickPalmer re average yes I agree but not really the point @HYUFD made a statement that was blatantly wrong and as @BartholomewRoberts @IshmaelZ stated the median average would be higher still.

As @Charles pointed out and as I have done on numerous times before @HYUFD can have a quite valid argument that he then completely devalues by using incorrect maths to justify it and thereby completely undermines it. On several occasions I have agreed with the point @HYUFD is making but have been embarrassed to support it because of the nonsense argument. And for instance in the last thread to top it all he answered my point be comparing two unrelated sets.

@Charles re your life insurance story. There was an example on the TV recently re a lady in France I think who had achieved a ripe old age who had outlived the person who bought her life insurance policy by decades. It has to make you smile even if you are on the wrong side of it.

Jeanne Calment.

If you want a nice conspiracy theory to while away the morning, there are those who say she is sooo many SDs to the right she can't actually be true, and was actually her own daughter claiming to be her precisely to keep claiming on the policy (which was a specifically French thing a bit like equity release on her flat).

MaxPB

Woken up with a back problem this morning, new bed and mattress can't come fast enough. My wife this am - "I've married an old man" 😭

Anyway, hoping this clears up because we've got a few people coming over tonight for NYE, leftover fireworks as well.

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

And Scotland is now almost irrelevant in relation to UK General Elections.

HYUFD

In 2022 Boris needs to fire up the Tory base to get his numbers back up. That means particularly continuing to refuse to impose any new restrictions on the vaccinated

eek

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

Lots. Recent examples would be not to lockdown at Christmas and to boost the boosters. He is not shy of decisions. Whether he makes the right ones is more up for debate (although I certainly agree with these two).

Sorry but we could have done the boosters way earlier - there is zero reason why most people couldn't have had boosters in October / November after a 4 month delay.

Boost the boosters arrived 2 weeks after Omicron first appeared - even introducing the scheme as soon as South Africa announced the new variant would have allowed another 2-5 million to be jabbed

Theuniondivvie

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

And Scotland is now almost irrelevant in relation to UK General Elections.

In that case we may as well just call them England & Wales General Elections, or my preference, Wangland GEs.

Mexicanpete

Andy_JS said:

In hindsight, one of the most bizarre moments of 2021 was when almost everyone described the fact there was a 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives at the Batley and Spen by-election, which reduced the Labour majority from 3,500 to 323 votes, as a "disappointing result" for the Tories. Compared to Chesham & Amersham or North Shropshire it was an excellent result. It just shows how spin can re-frame almost anything.

From Batley and Spen to North Shropshire represents a changing narrative. I would suggest HS2 nimbyism did for the Tories in Chesham.

Although to an extent you have a point. Starmer squeaked a win in Batley and the pressure was off. A win is a win. The same would have been true for Johnson had he replicated Starmer's Batley win in North Shropshire.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

And Scotland is now almost irrelevant in relation to UK General Elections.

It is if the Tories have a clear lead or Labour have a clear lead UK wide. If the 2 parties are neck and neck Scottish MPs could make the difference between whether Starmer becomes PM or not

SandyRentool

Cheer up everyone. Less than 14 hours until Dry January and Veganuary kick off.

algarkirk

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

And Scotland is now almost irrelevant in relation to UK General Elections.

It is if the Tories have a clear lead or Labour have a clear lead UK wide. If the 2 parties are neck and neck Scottish MPs could make the difference between whether Starmer becomes PM or not

Scotland is 50+ seats in the bag for the centre left, which with lots of results keeps the Tories out but could in interesting ways let Labour in. They are not irrelevant. They are a constant in the equation.

IanB2

The takeaway from the graph is that it's been downhill for the second half of the year; no one event produced this seismic change.

Stuartinromford

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

In hindsight, one of the most bizarre moments of 2021 was when almost everyone described the fact there was a 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives at the Batley and Spen by-election, which reduced the Labour majority from 3,500 to 323 votes, as a "disappointing result" for the Tories. Compared to Chesham & Amersham or North Shropshire it was an excellent result. It just shows how spin can re-frame almost anything.

From Batley and Spen to North Shropshire represents a changing narrative. I would suggest HS2 nimbyism did for the Tories in Chesham.

Although to an extent you have a point. Starmer squeaked a win in Batley and the pressure was off. A win is a win. The same would have been true for Johnson had he replicated Starmer's Batley win in North Shropshire.

It was an awfully sharp turnaround starting in the early Summer. And yes, Labour squeaking a win in Batley+Spen signalled that maybe Johnson wasn't an all-conquering hero and Starmer wasn't doomed.

Is the end of vaccination round 1 enough to explain it?

MattW

..

SandyRentool

Bozo's time as PM has already exceeded my expectations. Back at the start of last year I thought he be out in 2021.

Will he be out in 2022? I'm going to reverse my position and say that he'll still be there in a year's time. For all the bluster in the Tory ranks, they won't be prepared to get rid, and he won't go voluntarily.

kjh

HYUFD said:

In 2022 Boris needs to fire up the Tory base to get his numbers back up. That means particularly continuing to refuse to impose any new restrictions on the vaccinated

What is your motivation here @HYUFD? The reason I ask is you have been a very strong advocate for this in the last week or so but not before. And this is the first time I think you have mentioned the Tory party re the argument (unlike you).

I don't have an opinion one way or the other as I don't have enough facts, so just to make clear I am not disagreeing with you. Someone like @BartholomewRoberts has been consistent from an ideological point of view in his argument, but this has been new from you and you don't tend to express libertarian views.

Is your view politically driven or for the good of the nation and why the relatively new position and libertarian stance. I would expect this argument to come from me rather than you.

eek

algarkirk said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer see Scottish approval ratings 'hit record lows'

VOTERS’ estimations of the UK and Scottish leaders of both the Tory and Labour parties have sunk to record lows, Professor Sir John Curtice [the president of the British Polling Council] has said.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s rating has plummeted to a rating of -1, while his UK leader, Keir Starmer, has also seen a drop in his approval rating, which now sits on -35.

The news is equally poor for the Tory leaders, with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson having an approval rating of -62. A massive 78% of people said Johnson was doing his job poorly.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has also seen a drop in his rating, which now sits on -38. Just 17% of Scots said he was doing well in his role.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing.

[Curtice] adds: “There is no sign of any electoral challenge to the grip of the nationalist movement on the Holyrood chamber. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are mired in sleaze, and the UK and Scottish leaders of the Conservative and the Labour Party have all sunk to record lows in voters’ estimation.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19740590.boris-johnson-keir-starmer-see-scottish-approval-ratings-hit-record-lows/

That poll is over a month old.

And Scotland is now almost irrelevant in relation to UK General Elections.

It is if the Tories have a clear lead or Labour have a clear lead UK wide. If the 2 parties are neck and neck Scottish MPs could make the difference between whether Starmer becomes PM or not

Scotland is 50+ seats in the bag for the centre left, which with lots of results keeps the Tories out but could in interesting ways let Labour in. They are not irrelevant. They are a constant in the equation.

+1 - and one of those constants will be that the Tories will use the SNP's strength in Scotland to attack Labour in England.

May not be worth that many votes but it's probably worth a few for the Tory party.

stodge

It seems inconceivable Boris Johnson's numbers could sink any further.

There are those who think he should be praised to the skies for the lack of further restrictions in England. Others might argue his political authority is fading and he faces a fractious party which is now driving Government policy (which is the cart and which the horse I leave up to you).

We will of course get through this and the new normality will re-assert in 2022 though with other countries still likely to be putting in restrictions, the "holiday" in 2022 may still be more a staycation (at least in the early part of the year).

The economic fallout of this remains unclear - those who worship at the altar of the Laffer Curve will whine on about tax cuts and spending cuts but the unplanned growth of the State since the spring of 2020 won't, I suspect, be easily reversed and local authorities in particular will cry foul if the Government seeks to cut back on services for vulnerable adults and children.

The shape of the post-pandemic political world remains far from clear.

IanB2

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

MaxPB

eek said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Boris is capable of making decisions?

Can you actually think of any example where the decision made was NOT left so late there was no decision left to be made?

Lots. Recent examples would be not to lockdown at Christmas and to boost the boosters. He is not shy of decisions. Whether he makes the right ones is more up for debate (although I certainly agree with these two).

Sorry but we could have done the boosters way earlier - there is zero reason why most people couldn't have had boosters in October / November after a 4 month delay.

Boost the boosters arrived 2 weeks after Omicron first appeared - even introducing the scheme as soon as South Africa announced the new variant would have allowed another 2-5 million to be jabbed

Yes, the big booster rollout could have started two weeks earlier to deliver at least 5m extra doses before Xmas, our total would be ~39m now. That's 39m people who benefit from a 93-95% reduction in severe symptoms rather than ~33m taking an additional ~30k people out of the hospitalisation funnel entirely.

CarlottaVance

SandyRentool said:

Cheer up everyone. Less than 14 hours until Dry January and Veganuary kick off.

As Patsy in AbFab once remarked, "I gave up alcohol once. Worst five minutes of my life."

IanB2

SandyRentool said:

Cheer up everyone. Less than 14 hours until Dry January and Veganuary kick off.

We've certainly had enough rain for a while over the holiday period.

Carnyx

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

Oh, that's good to know. Must be the one on the Southsea front near the castle. Was shut when I went last. Looking forward to another trip to see that and some of the other history such as the old ammunition depot and Palmerston forts and take Mrs C to see Porchester Castle.

Mexicanpete

SandyRentool said:

Cheer up everyone. Less than 14 hours until Dry January and Veganuary kick off.

Indeed, small comfort, but something to look forward to nonetheless.

IanB2

Carnyx said:

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

Oh, that's good to know. Must be the one on the Southsea front near the castle. Was shut when I went last. Looking forward to another trip to see that and some of the other history such as the old ammunition depot and Palmerston forts and take Mrs C to see Porchester Castle.

Yes, that's the one. It was closed for a while during the refurb, but it's now open daily.

Last I heard, one of the forts was up for sale if you have £1.5 million to spare?

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Cheer up everyone. Less than 14 hours until Dry January and Veganuary kick off.

We've certainly had enough rain for a while over the holiday period.

Even I have seen rain today, first proper downpour in nearly two years!

Mexicanpete

Carnyx said:

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

Oh, that's good to know. Must be the one on the Southsea front near the castle. Was shut when I went last. Looking forward to another trip to see that and some of the other history such as the old ammunition depot and Palmerston forts and take Mrs C to see Porchester Castle.

Talk of Porchester always leaves me in a sweat.

A trip on the IoW ferry and a wander around Osborn is something for day two. What a great view Victoria had of the Spinnaker Tower!

DecrepiterJohnL

stodge said:

It seems inconceivable Boris Johnson's numbers could sink any further.

There are those who think he should be praised to the skies for the lack of further restrictions in England. Others might argue his political authority is fading and he faces a fractious party which is now driving Government policy (which is the cart and which the horse I leave up to you).

We will of course get through this and the new normality will re-assert in 2022 though with other countries still likely to be putting in restrictions, the "holiday" in 2022 may still be more a staycation (at least in the early part of the year).

The economic fallout of this remains unclear - those who worship at the altar of the Laffer Curve will whine on about tax cuts and spending cuts but the unplanned growth of the State since the spring of 2020 won't, I suspect, be easily reversed and local authorities in particular will cry foul if the Government seeks to cut back on services for vulnerable adults and children.

The shape of the post-pandemic political world remains far from clear.

Why would the Laffer curve mob want spending cuts? Surely their point is that cutting tax rates brings in more money for Rishi to spend on lampposts and hospitals.

MattW

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

From what I hear, Portsmouth is now a far better naval museum than Greenwich, which has been rather dumbed down.

CarlottaVance

(Near) bottom of the class:



https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/which-economies-have-done-best-and-worst-during-the-pandemic/21806917

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

In 2022 Boris needs to fire up the Tory base to get his numbers back up. That means particularly continuing to refuse to impose any new restrictions on the vaccinated

Even if a vaccine busting variant comes along that swifty kills us all in large numbers?

I thought the Summer was the silly season, it seems I was wrong. Some posters have been barking at the moon for the last week.

solarflare

"Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know how he was performing."

That made me laugh. More like this:

"Alex Cole-Hamilton, the leader of the Scottish LibDems, has an approval rating of -16. However, the majority of respondents (55%) said they did not know who he was."

Cicero

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

In 2022 Boris needs to fire up the Tory base to get his numbers back up. That means particularly continuing to refuse to impose any new restrictions on the vaccinated

What is your motivation here @HYUFD? The reason I ask is you have been a very strong advocate for this in the last week or so but not before. And this is the first time I think you have mentioned the Tory party re the argument (unlike you).

I don't have an opinion one way or the other as I don't have enough facts, so just to make clear I am not disagreeing with you. Someone like @BartholomewRoberts has been consistent from an ideological point of view in his argument, but this has been new from you and you don't tend to express libertarian views.

Is your view politically driven or for the good of the nation and why the relatively new position and libertarian stance. I would expect this argument to come from me rather than you.

"He ever voted at his party´s call, and never thought of thinking for himself at all".
If the Tories advocated either Lockdown or the complete abolition of restrictions, then no matter what, our reliably partisan posters would follow.
"Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia"

kinabalu

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

No place for this here, Morris. PB.com is for opinions which can then be debated. It's our lifeblood.

This is like coming on and saying "I think horses are bigger than squirrels".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kinabalu, a morris dancer's splendid words are always welcome.

Carnyx

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

No place for this here, Morris. PB.com is for opinions which can then be debated. It's our lifeblood.

This is like coming on and saying "I think horses are bigger than squirrels".

PB pedantry! That is actually entirely arguable. Squirrels go up to 15kg and horses down to 9kg. So you are being unfair to Mr Dancer.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2400511
https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/article/93/4/1169/961077

BartholomewRoberts

Carnyx said:

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

No place for this here, Morris. PB.com is for opinions which can then be debated. It's our lifeblood.

This is like coming on and saying "I think horses are bigger than squirrels".

PB pedantry! That is actually entirely arguable. Squirrels go up to 15kg and horses down to 9kg. So you are being unfair to Mr Dancer.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2400511
https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/article/93/4/1169/961077

You win PB for today! What an awesome stat!

kinabalu

On topic, I'm a split personality on Johnson's prospects for 2022. Political Me believes it's all over for him, he's been sussed and he's on his way out. Betting Me disagrees and thinks he's far more likely than not to recover sufficiently to stay in place. I'm long of him at 1.9 to still be PM for the Tory Party Conf and I'm not laying it back yet even though it's shortened to 1.5. I think that's still too big. Should be 1.33 max and probably 1.25.

Carnyx

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

Oh, that's good to know. Must be the one on the Southsea front near the castle. Was shut when I went last. Looking forward to another trip to see that and some of the other history such as the old ammunition depot and Palmerston forts and take Mrs C to see Porchester Castle.

Yes, that's the one. It was closed for a while during the refurb, but it's now open daily.

Last I heard, one of the forts was up for sale if you have £1.5 million to spare?

Yep, I was reading about that. But Mrs C would not be impressed even if we had the cash.

Carnyx

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

IanB2 said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Carnyx said:

Charles said:

Eabhal said:

Negative lft this morning so Hogmanay party is on!

Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.

Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.

Early start tomorrow as off to see the Victory and the Mary Rose… perfect excuse for not celebrating the new year.

Don't forget the Warrior as a possibility, if you've never been. Anyway have a good time.

We do have a third attraction we can go to but with a 5 hour round trip and a 9 year old I’m not sure we’ll get to it… thanks for the recommendation though

That's certainly the logical sequence anyway with Victory and Mary Rose being the two older ships close to each other. Warrior would be good for a good weather trip combined with the Tower and a harbour cruise perhaps.

There's also the D-Day museum - highly rated since it was entirely re-vamped with lottery funding

Oh, that's good to know. Must be the one on the Southsea front near the castle. Was shut when I went last. Looking forward to another trip to see that and some of the other history such as the old ammunition depot and Palmerston forts and take Mrs C to see Porchester Castle.

Talk of Porchester always leaves me in a sweat.

A trip on the IoW ferry and a wander around Osborn is something for day two. What a great view Victoria had of the Spinnaker Tower!

Am I missing something about Porchester? Or is it jujst that there is so much walking and scrambling to do?

dixiedean

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boris Johnson is the new Gordon Brown.

Not really. He is not permanently depressed, he is not known for throwing phones around and he is not incapable of making decisions for good or ill. Slightly more depressingly, he doesn't have a Peter Mandelson to pick up the pieces either.

Yes.
He sure isn't noted for having pored over every document and having policy ideas in the small hours either.

rottenborough

Will the weather impact on case spread? It is not exactly the wintery conditions that viruses like.

14 degrees here in the boondocks of the midlands.

Cookie

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

No place for this here, Morris. PB.com is for opinions which can then be debated. It's our lifeblood.

This is like coming on and saying "I think horses are bigger than squirrels".

This made me laugh.
Actually, I do genuinely think Boris believes in something - small state, liberty, freedom of the individual, that sort of thing. I just don't think he's very good at - or indeed even tries to - join the dots between these 'principles' (to stretch a definition) with pulling the levers which will produce the appropriate outcomes.
However, this quibble has been superseded by @Carnyx 's quite excellent contrarianism showing us that sometimes squirrels are bigger than horses. This is pb's finest moment since the debate over whether London was better than Wick.

kinabalu

Carnyx said:

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

No place for this here, Morris. PB.com is for opinions which can then be debated. It's our lifeblood.

This is like coming on and saying "I think horses are bigger than squirrels".

PB pedantry! That is actually entirely arguable. Squirrels go up to 15kg and horses down to 9kg. So you are being unfair to Mr Dancer.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2400511
https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/article/93/4/1169/961077

Oh, I don't believe it. Serves me right. Should have left not a scintilla of a loophole.

Uranus is bigger than the Earth.

rottenborough

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
11h
The Times: "NHS chiefs do not believe that the threshold for new Covid-19 restrictions has been crossed despite a surge in hospital admissions". Not evil Boris. Not his evil advisors. Not his evil Cabinet. Not his evil MPs. Not his evil media cheerleaders. NHS Chiefs.

rottenborough

Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
8m
NHS England have updated their data "with/for" - admissions both with *and* for are rising steeply.

About two thirds of current Covid patients are there directly because of Covid.

Rest mix of: coincidental; covid made existing condition worse; caught in hospital.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1476866234524311588

Stuartinromford

kinabalu said:

On topic, I'm a split personality on Johnson's prospects for 2022. Political Me believes it's all over for him, he's been sussed and he's on his way out. Betting Me disagrees and thinks he's far more likely than not to recover sufficiently to stay in place. I'm long of him at 1.9 to still be PM for the Tory Party Conf and I'm not laying it back yet even though it's shortened to 1.5. I think that's still too big. Should be 1.33 max and probably 1.25.

I don't know about BoJo recovering (his default state is less popular than he and his acolytes imagine... 2019 was very much Devil vs. Deep Blue Sea), but I can see a pathway where it's never in anyone's personal interest to dump him... until it's too late.

Rishi being happy to serve under Liz, and vice versa... That's when Boris really has to worry. And I'm not sure I can see that happening.

FeersumEnjineeya

CarlottaVance said:

(Near) bottom of the class:



https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/which-economies-have-done-best-and-worst-during-the-pandemic/21806917

Despite Brexit?

rottenborough

Stuartinromford said:

kinabalu said:

On topic, I'm a split personality on Johnson's prospects for 2022. Political Me believes it's all over for him, he's been sussed and he's on his way out. Betting Me disagrees and thinks he's far more likely than not to recover sufficiently to stay in place. I'm long of him at 1.9 to still be PM for the Tory Party Conf and I'm not laying it back yet even though it's shortened to 1.5. I think that's still too big. Should be 1.33 max and probably 1.25.

I don't know about BoJo recovering (his default state is less popular than he and his acolytes imagine... 2019 was very much Devil vs. Deep Blue Sea), but I can see a pathway where it's never in anyone's personal interest to dump him... until it's too late.

Rishi being happy to serve under Liz, and vice versa... That's when Boris really has to worry. And I'm not sure I can see that happening.

We will have a better view after the May elections. They will be like a traditional mid term set of elections now that normal politics with a functioning opposition has started up again.

If Tories get a shellacking then could be the summer to get rid of the albatross before a 2023 GE?

kinabalu

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dickson, I don't think Boris Johnson believes anything. He's a vacuity, defined by the absence of conviction, driven solely by what he deems his own interest.

No place for this here, Morris. PB.com is for opinions which can then be debated. It's our lifeblood.

This is like coming on and saying "I think horses are bigger than squirrels".

This made me laugh.
Actually, I do genuinely think Boris believes in something - small state, liberty, freedom of the individual, that sort of thing. I just don't think he's very good at - or indeed even tries to - join the dots between these 'principles' (to stretch a definition) with pulling the levers which will produce the appropriate outcomes.
However, this quibble has been superseded by @Carnyx 's quite excellent contrarianism showing us that sometimes squirrels are bigger than horses. This is pb's finest moment since the debate over whether London was better than Wick.

I really don't want to meet that squirrel.

As for BJ, I can imagine he believes in all of that but only in a desultory skindeep kind of a way - ie down the pub he might argue that side of life, and he would genuinely prefer it to eg totalitarian communism, but that's about as far as it goes.

Dura_Ace

Stuartinromford said:

kinabalu said:

On topic, I'm a split personality on Johnson's prospects for 2022. Political Me believes it's all over for him, he's been sussed and he's on his way out. Betting Me disagrees and thinks he's far more likely than not to recover sufficiently to stay in place. I'm long of him at 1.9 to still be PM for the Tory Party Conf and I'm not laying it back yet even though it's shortened to 1.5. I think that's still too big. Should be 1.33 max and probably 1.25.

I don't know about BoJo recovering (his default state is less popular than he and his acolytes imagine... 2019 was very much Devil vs. Deep Blue Sea), but I can see a pathway where it's never in anyone's personal interest to dump him... until it's too late.

Rishi being happy to serve under Liz, and vice versa... That's when Boris really has to worry. And I'm not sure I can see that happening.

Sunak and Truss are both definitely on maneuvers but it's too early for either. They need Johnson to take a lot more of the blame to come.

IshmaelZ

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

In 2022 Boris needs to fire up the Tory base to get his numbers back up. That means particularly continuing to refuse to impose any new restrictions on the vaccinated

Even if a vaccine busting variant comes along that swifty kills us all in large numbers?

I thought the Summer was the silly season, it seems I was wrong. Some posters have been barking at the moon for the last week.

The barkers are in the grip of an ideologically driven narrative. If omicron sufficiently worse than expected, or if successor of omicron sufficiently worse than omicron, then lockdown on the cards. You would have thought that was uncontroversial, but the objections are 1. that it would be unacceptably statist and left wing of the virus to get worse at this stage and b. the narrative arc doesn't permit it, it would be too like a retread of season 2 and sooo boring.

Stocky

May have been posted already but below (from yesterday) examines why hospitalisations are not rising proportionally in line with Omicron infections:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EDBJBmlvXY

BartholomewRoberts

Does anyone know how accurate the blood O2 measures are on a phone? And what numbers to look out for?

I've got a Galaxy S9+ and after testing positive yesterday I used the sensor for the first time in years to get a reading of 95. I then immediately tried it again a few times and got an 85, 86 and 88 which rather raises question marks against its reliability. Just tried again and got a 90.