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The 2021 StJohn PB Christmas Crossword (Est. 2006) – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    ydoethur said:

    For anybody interested, the James Webb space telescope is about to launch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nT7JGZMbtM

    Blast off!

    Have to say as well, this BBC correspondent doing the commentary is really, really good. Clear, concise, knowledgeable, calm and also a perfect voice for it with excellent diction.
    The decisions not to have cameras on the launcher and telescope....

    The deployment would be awesome in 4K. If it works.....
    It's something SpaceX now do excellently (although not at first).
    It was another example of their evolved approach - culminating in the 4K cameras on the fairings which captured some startlingly beautiful coronal effects.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    The moment you have peeled the potatoes, peeled and cored the parsnips, parboiled them, smothered them in butter and put them in roasting tray, and then go to put them in the oven...

    ..to find the tray you've selected is just half an inch too large...

    About thirty years ago, my parents had a new oven fitted. It came with a range of trays, one of which was ideal for the turkey that Christmas. As dad was getting it out partway through cooking, the tray bent in the middle, depositing all the hot fat and oil straight onto his foot.

    To this day he's proud he didn't drop the turkey, and fortunately the slippers he was wearing saved him from the worst. His foot still has scars to this day.

    So, one thing you don't want with Christmas dinner: roast foot!
    We've cooked a goose only once. I knew it was a fatty bird but we weren't prepared for how fatty. In getting it out of the oven, my husband spilt fat everywhere ruining a good pair of shoes. When I went to help, I started slidding around in the spilt fat and the two of us ended up clinging on to the kitchen units like something out of a comedy sketch. That put me off cooking goose. (Although I did enjoy smoked goose at The Gay Hussar. Aah, those times!)

    Back to the crossword: 1 Down: Reaganonics? Anagram of Cameron plus is and ag = against.
    20 Across Usage New York is in US Times = Ages
    21 Down Sun up?
    What works really well for goose is to get one of those deep sided, heavy duty foil, throw away dishes they sell for cooking turkey. Put the goose in that, and put it on the massive tray that comes with the oven - the one that is the size of the oven. The tray supports the foil, which would bend otherwise.

    The heavy duty foil thing is 3 inches or more deep, which can hold the fat until you ladle it out.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    OT watching Bond film as is traditional. No Time To Die. No idea what is happening. Its plot is as mystifying as the crossword.

    I never know what is going on in Bond films. Or in most crime dramas and whodunnits.

    It gets even more confusing when they cast actors who resemble each other and I get the characters mixed up.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Merry Christmas PBers

    Remember to Eat, Drink and be Merry.


    Hillary Clinton
    @HillaryClinton
    ·
    13m
    Merry Christmas! Christmas tree

    https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1474735133500583945?s=20
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Nancy Pelosi
    @SpeakerPelosi
    ·
    49m
    From my family to yours, we wish you a healthy and Merry Christmas! #MerryChristmasChristmas tree

    https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1474727947059830785?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400
    New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste.
    Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website.
    They really aren't at all.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    The moment you have peeled the potatoes, peeled and cored the parsnips, parboiled them, smothered them in butter and put them in roasting tray, and then go to put them in the oven...

    ..to find the tray you've selected is just half an inch too large...

    About thirty years ago, my parents had a new oven fitted. It came with a range of trays, one of which was ideal for the turkey that Christmas. As dad was getting it out partway through cooking, the tray bent in the middle, depositing all the hot fat and oil straight onto his foot.

    To this day he's proud he didn't drop the turkey, and fortunately the slippers he was wearing saved him from the worst. His foot still has scars to this day.

    So, one thing you don't want with Christmas dinner: roast foot!
    We've cooked a goose only once. I knew it was a fatty bird but we weren't prepared for how fatty. In getting it out of the oven, my husband spilt fat everywhere ruining a good pair of shoes. When I went to help, I started slidding around in the spilt fat and the two of us ended up clinging on to the kitchen units like something out of a comedy sketch. That put me off cooking goose. (Although I did enjoy smoked goose at The Gay Hussar. Aah, those times!)

    Back to the crossword: 1 Down: Reaganonics? Anagram of Cameron plus is and ag = against.
    20 Across Usage New York is in US Times = Ages
    21 Down Sun up?
    What works really well for goose is to get one of those deep sided, heavy duty foil, throw away dishes they sell for cooking turkey. Put the goose in that, and put it on the massive tray that comes with the oven - the one that is the size of the oven. The tray supports the foil, which would bend otherwise.

    The heavy duty foil thing is 3 inches or more deep, which can hold the fat until you ladle it out.
    Another way is to boil the goose or duck for 10-20 minutes first in order to render much of the fat, then to drain and roast afterwards.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    1 Cameron is conflicted over a good CONSERVATIVE’S POLICY (11)

    REAGANOMICS - anagram (indicated by conflicted) of “Cameron is” over or around “a g” (good).
    RE (AG) ANOMICS.

    Reaganomics described the policy or policies, particularly economic, of conservative US President, Ronald Reagan.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    20 Where to find New York Times EMPLOYMENTS (6)

    USAGES - US (where to find New York) + ages (Times)
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    21 Result of Early Day Motion (3-2)

    SUN-UP - cryptic definition.

  • 11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6)

    Ratify means endorse, has six letters and fits the grid. As for the rest of the clue, who knows, rat = tar backwards?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited December 2021
    Apologies for Radio Silence. I pooped out for some "festive cheer" - and thanks to SandraMc for rebooting the xword.

    8 clues left. Across 11, 13, 16, 18, 22. Down 12, 15, 19.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6)

    Ratify means endorse, has six letters and fits the grid. As for the rest of the clue, who knows, rat = tar backwards?

    Man = Ray
    Suitable = Fit
    Suitable backwards = tif
    Man holding suitable backwards = ra(tif)y
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6)

    Ratify means endorse, has six letters and fits the grid. As for the rest of the clue, who knows, rat = tar backwards?

    Yes!

    11 ENDORSE man holding suitable backing (6)

    RATIFY - “Ray” (man) holding or around “tif” (fit reversed). RA (TIF) Y.
  • 12 Finance Bill
    18 Roger Stone
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    stjohn said:

    Apologies for Radio Silence and thanks to SandraMc for rebooting the xword.

    8 clues left. Across 11, 13, 16, 18, 22. Down 12, 15, 19.

    15 Down - Kirkcaldy. Of course it would be. How silly of me not to spot it before.

    Kirk = church
    Caldy - c for caught and lady out of order.

    = constituency of Mr Brown, famously son of a Kirk of Scotland minister (Scots describe it as 'son of the manse').
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    12 BUDGET article eclipsed by European Court’s first libel action (7,4)

    FINANCE BILL - A (indefinite article) eclipsed or covered by Finn (European), then C (Court’s first) and “e bill”, (anagram of libel, indicated by action). FIN (A) N + C + E BILL

    Budget or The Budget is the UK government’s annual (statement of the) Finance Bill.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    18 Dancer Blair addressed familiarly, is A TRUMP SUPPORTER (5,5)

    ROGER STONE - “Rogers” (Ginger, famous film dancer with Fred Astaire ) + “Tone” (Tony Blair, when addressed familiarly).

    Roger Stone is a Republican lobbyist and notable supporter of Donald Trump who was convicted of 7 felony counts resulting from the Mueller Investigation in 2019 but subsequently pardoned by Trump.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    15 Lady caught out visiting church WHERE SON OF THE MANSE LIVED (9)

    KIRKCALDY - anagram (indicated by out) of Lady c (caught) next to kirk (church).
    KIRK + CALDY

    Kirkcaldy is where Gordon Brown was brought up and where he was an MP. He is known as “the son of the manse” because his father was a Church of Scotland minister and the family lived in a manse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    16 ac - URNS

    remains here (as in eg cremains)
    and
    laments = mourns minus first couple of letters
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    TimT said:

    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    The moment you have peeled the potatoes, peeled and cored the parsnips, parboiled them, smothered them in butter and put them in roasting tray, and then go to put them in the oven...

    ..to find the tray you've selected is just half an inch too large...

    About thirty years ago, my parents had a new oven fitted. It came with a range of trays, one of which was ideal for the turkey that Christmas. As dad was getting it out partway through cooking, the tray bent in the middle, depositing all the hot fat and oil straight onto his foot.

    To this day he's proud he didn't drop the turkey, and fortunately the slippers he was wearing saved him from the worst. His foot still has scars to this day.

    So, one thing you don't want with Christmas dinner: roast foot!
    We've cooked a goose only once. I knew it was a fatty bird but we weren't prepared for how fatty. In getting it out of the oven, my husband spilt fat everywhere ruining a good pair of shoes. When I went to help, I started slidding around in the spilt fat and the two of us ended up clinging on to the kitchen units like something out of a comedy sketch. That put me off cooking goose. (Although I did enjoy smoked goose at The Gay Hussar. Aah, those times!)

    Back to the crossword: 1 Down: Reaganonics? Anagram of Cameron plus is and ag = against.
    20 Across Usage New York is in US Times = Ages
    21 Down Sun up?
    What works really well for goose is to get one of those deep sided, heavy duty foil, throw away dishes they sell for cooking turkey. Put the goose in that, and put it on the massive tray that comes with the oven - the one that is the size of the oven. The tray supports the foil, which would bend otherwise.

    The heavy duty foil thing is 3 inches or more deep, which can hold the fat until you ladle it out.
    Another way is to boil the goose or duck for 10-20 minutes first in order to render much of the fat, then to drain and roast afterwards.
    The problem you get is that the modern habit of "inflating" turkeys etc with brine means that gallons of liquid keeps on pouring out through the cooking. Unless you source your bird from a proper butcher, which is seriously expensive, usually.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    The LFT results are in...

    Me: Negative

    Wor Lass: Positive. Repeat test: Positive

    Oh well, no Christmas dinner with the rest of the family.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    For anybody interested, the James Webb space telescope is about to launch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nT7JGZMbtM

    That was awesome to watch, some great news for humanity today. Let’s hope everything goes well for them .

    Way too drunk now for the cryptic crossword, but thanks to @stjohn @MikeSmithson and the PB team, and all PBers. Merry Christmas!
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    16 REMAINS HERE and laments the first couple leaving (4)

    URNS - (mo)urns (laments) with the first couple of letters leaving.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    19 is Gaddafi - the Libyan revolutionary leader.

    Anagram ('broadcast') of did + a + fag
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    19 REVOLUTIONARY LEADER did broadcast with a fag (7)

    GADDAFI - anagram (indicated by broadcast) of “did” and “a fag”
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Two left. 13 and 22 across.
  • Just got 13 - Policy Wonk

    Can’t do 22 though
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    13 GOVERNMENT EXPERT covering Cold War’s origin, working with US President (6,4)

    POLICY WONK - Covering, “Icy” (Cold) + “W” (War’s origin) + “on” (working) with
    “Polk” (11th US President, James Knox Polk) makes [POL (ICY W ON) K]
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    13 = POLICY WONK.

    And I am stuck on 22
  • 22 Declared?

    Declared could be running.
    Deed could be act.

    Don’t get the rest though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Her Maj looks rather thin?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    DECLARED - Clar(e) (Clare Short, former Labour minister, with the last letter of Clare cut off) found inside deed (act). DE (CLAR) ED.

    Declared meaning running for office or running in a sporting event, such as a horse race.
  • stjohn said:

    DECLARED - Clar(e) (Clare Short, former Labour minister, with the last letter of Clare cut off) found inside deed (act). DE (CLAR) ED.

    Declared meaning running for office or running in a sporting event, such as a horse race.

    That was quite devious.

    Many thanks, St John.

    Very enjoyable as ever.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    The LFT results are in...

    Me: Negative

    Wor Lass: Positive. Repeat test: Positive

    Oh well, no Christmas dinner with the rest of the family.

    Sympathies - hope she's better soon.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    The LFT results are in...

    Me: Negative

    Wor Lass: Positive. Repeat test: Positive

    Oh well, no Christmas dinner with the rest of the family.

    Sympathies - hope she's better soon.
    Thanks Nick.

    She is asymptomatic, so hopefully will stay that way. We are both boosted.

    PCR test arranged for Boxing Day morning.

    She visited a cafe with a friend on Tuesday, so that may well have been Ground Zero.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    A major Tory donor who backed Boris Johnson before the last election has openly questioned whether he should survive as Conservative leader, as another poll confirmed a clear poll lead for Labour.

    John Caudwell, the billionaire founder of Phones4U who handed the Tories £500,000 before the last election, said he had been hugely disappointed by “the mistakes and faux pas” made by No 10 and said he did not know if Johnson could or should lead the party into the next election.

    With Tory MPs openly speculating about who might replace Johnson, Caudwell said he had been particularly alarmed by Johnson’s initial attempt to protect former cabinet minister Owen Paterson from punishment after he was found to have lobbied ministers.

    “What really concerns me is this sleaze issue and him not standing firmly enough against what’s gone on,” he told the Observer. “I was unbelievably disappointed when I heard him almost defending and ... trying to find an out for Owen Paterson. [However,] I like him as a charismatic leader. It’s a very, very positive thing to have somebody who feels down to earth, so I like Boris from that point of view.”

    “I’m not sure he can survive this, and I’m not even sure he should survive it.”
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited December 2021
    Tres said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    The moment you have peeled the potatoes, peeled and cored the parsnips, parboiled them, smothered them in butter and put them in roasting tray, and then go to put them in the oven...

    ..to find the tray you've selected is just half an inch too large...

    About thirty years ago, my parents had a new oven fitted. It came with a range of trays, one of which was ideal for the turkey that Christmas. As dad was getting it out partway through cooking, the tray bent in the middle, depositing all the hot fat and oil straight onto his foot.

    To this day he's proud he didn't drop the turkey, and fortunately the slippers he was wearing saved him from the worst. His foot still has scars to this day.

    So, one thing you don't want with Christmas dinner: roast foot!
    That would terrify me. Diabetic people are very vulnerable to foot injuries, and the difficulty of healing thereof.

    Only ever had one, and that was a fairly mild shoe rubbing which ended up as an ulcer with a need for a minor op. Since I had an epidural I got to watch. V. interesting.
    Ouch. TBF it's not something that ever occurred to me. What exactly is the problem with diabetes and foot injuries? Is it the same for Type 1 and Type 2?
    Diabetes worsens blood circulation and makes feet less sensitive. So problems with cuts and bruises on the feet may go unnoticed and feet are typically the most vulnerable part of the body to circulation issues which makes healing from wounds etc. take longer.
    Good summary.

    Peripheray neuropathy - loss of feel and circulation, which means that stuff like standing on a nail or foot injury such as boiling water gets missed, and daily foot care is critical. So people with D are at higher risk due to walking barefoot on a beach or in water or at home.

    With age or inflexibility loss of ability to self-care can have an impact,

    Made worse by slow healing. which is also a diabetic thing.

    Applies to type 1 and 2, especially Type 1.

    Longer term complications are loss of feel, and then potentially amputation.

    More of a risk by iiving alone as happens more now, esp. with aging.

    Simple things like better db control or learning yoga make a difference.

    NHS getting much better at this. Part of the agenda to manage healthcare costs.

    There's a lot underneath about motivation and self-care.

    One excellent strategy is to marry a medic :smile: .

    Also things perhaps such as house sharing as one ages.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Sandpit said:

    For anybody interested, the James Webb space telescope is about to launch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nT7JGZMbtM

    That was awesome to watch, some great news for humanity today. Let’s hope everything goes well for them .

    Way too drunk now for the cryptic crossword, but thanks to @stjohn @MikeSmithson and the PB team, and all PBers. Merry Christmas!
    I hope nobody from your local police force has read that.

    Or are you allowed booze in Dubai as long as you're not plastered in public?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    dixiedean said:

    New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste.
    Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website.
    They really aren't at all.

    Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Happy christmas. Hope people are having an OK day.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,296
    Congrats to those on the crossword! Many thanks to StJohn and Mike!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Zzzzzz
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400
    edited December 2021
    darkage said:

    dixiedean said:

    New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste.
    Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website.
    They really aren't at all.

    Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
    Yes. However, those are the prevailing symptoms.
    57 minutes without a comment. Is this a daytime record?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Merry Christmas PB.

    Hope everyone has had a lovely day!
  • Labour majority klaxon.

    Labour has opened up an eight-point lead over the Tories after a punishing few weeks for Boris Johnson, a poll commissioned by The Sunday Times reveals today.

    Nearly 25,000 people were asked about their voting intentions, and the results give the first detailed insight into the public’s perception of Johnson’s handling of the sleaze scandals engulfing his party.

    The findings of a constituency-by-constituency poll conducted on December 1-21 suggested Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, would have won a general election with a 26-seat majority. Johnson would have lost his seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the first sitting prime minister to have been ejected from parliament.

    Five other cabinet ministers, including Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president, and George Eustice, the environment secretary, would also have lost their seats, according to the survey by Focaldata.

    The poll was taken over a three-week period in which Johnson suffered a damaging backbench rebellion, a by-election defeat in a seat the Tories had held for nearly 200 years, revelations of illicit parties held in Downing Street last Christmas and a surge in Omicron cases.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/starmer-opens-up-eight-point-lead-as-partygate-takes-toll-on-tories-lzftkmw57
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021


    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.


  • This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
  • While some Conservatives will be shocked by the findings, many will think it could have been much worse and will be surprised Starmer has not fared better in “disastrous December”.

    Eh? This is Labour's best performance since 2005, two years after losing in a landslide, such a turnaround would put Starmer as one of the most successful leaders in history.

    Of course, just a poll, very early days of course!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Michael Howard and Ed Miliband both had these sorts of shares. It didn’t last.

    What’s more striking to my mind is how quickly things have turned around - less than two months. Normally it’s a much more gradual process.

    Equally, it suggests things could turn back very fast too.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Merry Christmas to all on PB.

    I've been enjoying Christmas with family today so not commenting, Not sure how much help I would have been with the cross word anyway, LOL.

  • ydoethur said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Michael Howard and Ed Miliband both had these sorts of shares. It didn’t last.

    What’s more striking to my mind is how quickly things have turned around - less than two months. Normally it’s a much more gradual process.

    Equally, it suggests things could turn back very fast too.
    Very fair point.

    Labour must solidify this progress - but 40% is a good base to maintain and they still have Green votes to squeeze


  • This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Labour gain Basingstoke??
  • ITV just announced the death of The Pope by accident.

    https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1474797758712365062
  • OldBasing said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Labour gain Basingstoke??
    Still a Con seat based on this MRP.

    Aaron Bell loses his seat as does the Red Wall Tories.
  • To be honest I am extremely sceptical this would be repeated, I think a Labour majority is out of the question
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    ITV just announced the death of The Pope by accident.

    https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1474797758712365062

    Slipped in the bathtub?
  • OldBasing said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Labour gain Basingstoke??
    Still a Con seat based on this MRP.

    Aaron Bell loses his seat as does the Red Wall Tories.
    On that poll @CorrectHorseBattery should definitely put a couple of quid on Basingstoke going Labour. Value bet.
  • @TheScreamingEagles what are the majorities like in the Red Wall seats? Any ideas on swing there?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Michael Howard and Ed Miliband both had these sorts of shares. It didn’t last.

    What’s more striking to my mind is how quickly things have turned around - less than two months. Normally it’s a much more gradual process.

    Equally, it suggests things could turn back very fast too.
    Radio 1 yesterday said their no 5 single was a song about Boris with so many rude words in it a bleeped version was just not feasible. He has engaged da yoof, and not in a good way
  • Also this is old boundaries, FYI
  • IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Michael Howard and Ed Miliband both had these sorts of shares. It didn’t last.

    What’s more striking to my mind is how quickly things have turned around - less than two months. Normally it’s a much more gradual process.

    Equally, it suggests things could turn back very fast too.
    Radio 1 yesterday said their no 5 single was a song about Boris with so many rude words in it a bleeped version was just not feasible. He has engaged da yoof, and not in a good way
    He will solidify that if he fudges around with student fees.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Lucky for the Conservatives that there isn’t another election due for 2.5-3 years I guess...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Michael Howard and Ed Miliband both had these sorts of shares. It didn’t last.

    What’s more striking to my mind is how quickly things have turned around - less than two months. Normally it’s a much more gradual process.

    Equally, it suggests things could turn back very fast too.
    Radio 1 yesterday said their no 5 single was a song about Boris with so many rude words in it a bleeped version was just not feasible. He has engaged da yoof, and not in a good way
    He will solidify that if he fudges around with student fees.
    Treasury won't let him
  • Thoughts and prayers for the Corbynites having to deal with tonight's polling.
  • By virtue of my low office, as Vice Vicar & Metropolitan of the Pseudo Orthodox Quasi Church of Almost Holy Bukovina (POQCAHB) We wish all PBers, deserving and undeserving alike (as if you know which from which!) a most Merry Christmas!

    Though sadly, due to your hereditary heresy and robust paganism, your calendar has become so corrupted as to make you believe that TODAY is Christmas Day.

    Humbug!

    According to the True Calendar of God as calculated and observed by the POQCAHB since the days of the Venerable Crap'oslavl the Incontinent (or perhaps it was the other way around?) the true date of Christmas, according to the satanic-euro-popish calendar) is June 31.

    Wait for it!

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    What, no COVID updates today? Bloody civil servants...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    By virtue of my low office, as Vice Vicar & Metropolitan of the Pseudo Orthodox Quasi Church of Almost Holy Bukovina (POQCAHB) We wish all PBers, deserving and undeserving alike (as if you know which from which!) a most Merry Christmas!

    Though sadly, due to your hereditary heresy and robust paganism, your calendar has become so corrupted as to make you believe that TODAY is Christmas Day.

    Humbug!

    According to the True Calendar of God as calculated and observed by the POQCAHB since the days of the Venerable Crap'oslavl the Incontinent (or perhaps it was the other way around?) the true date of Christmas, according to the satanic-euro-popish calendar) is June 31.

    Wait for it!

    Christmas and New year's Day should both be on the solstice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    alex_ said:

    Lucky for the Conservatives that there isn’t another election due for 2.5-3 years I guess...

    Not sure we actually need another election to be honest.

    :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    ITV just announced the death of The Pope by accident.

    https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1474797758712365062

    I was watching the news to witness the faux pas.

    Presumably they were going to include the Ray Illingworth story, dropped it, and got in a muddle.

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    edited December 2021



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Nah, if Labour didn't have a single gain in Scotland and only gained seats against the Tories, then the latter would be on 229 not 237.
    I haven't checked out the details of the poll, yet, but it seems to imply at least eight Labour gains from the SNP. Probably the six seats they lost in 2019, and maybe somewhere like Airdrie and Shotts and/or Glasgow East.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Michael Howard and Ed Miliband both had these sorts of shares. It didn’t last.

    What’s more striking to my mind is how quickly things have turned around - less than two months. Normally it’s a much more gradual process.

    Equally, it suggests things could turn back very fast too.
    A good point.

    However we are yet to see the backlash from the economic train-wreck heading our way. The current state of affairs was a bonus I could not have predicted pre- Owen Paterson.

    Still, some hang 'em and flog 'em narratives from Priti and picking some fights with the EU and China and normal service should be resumed.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited December 2021

    To be honest I am extremely sceptical this would be repeated, I think a Labour majority is out of the question

    I would be staggered if Labour got more than 300 seats at the next election TBH (although 300 would be an excellent result), it 's a pretty dubious looking MRP TBH as it has Westmorland and Lonsdale as a Tory gain and has Labour regaining seats like Middlesbrough S and east Cleveland, Burton, Erewash, Telford, Dover, Stevenage, Grimsby, Bassetlaw, Waveney, Monmouth, Thurrock and Rochford and Southend E which all seem crazy.

    I can see some serious unwind back (mainly in the North) to 2015/17 but not this.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/starmer-opens-up-eight-point-lead-as-partygate-takes-toll-on-tories-lzftkmw57
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    dixiedean said:

    darkage said:

    dixiedean said:

    New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste.
    Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website.
    They really aren't at all.

    Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
    Yes. However, those are the prevailing symptoms.
    57 minutes without a comment. Is this a daytime record?
    I feel like I am stating something incredibly obvious. But the testing system, and associated rules, are absurd to the point of being meaningless. One set of people are motivated to take tests: so, people who are employed and would rather have a day or two off work whilst they await test results. Another set of people have every incentive to avoid taking Covid tests - so, the self employed, or people who need to get out and about to get things done.

    Even if no one ever admits to this being the truth, it is obvious to me that it is the case. Now we have got to the point where the official COVID symptoms are, it seems, not really correct; yet the impact on the economy of changing them, and the associated disruption, are such that they cannot be changed, because the effect of making a runny nose a covid symptom that justifies 'self isolating' and booking a test means that a large proportion of the country will be off work at anyone one time whilst they await their PCR test results.

    The situation is a farce. The government keep it running, presumably so it can get data from the PCR tests about COVID. This is a bureaucratic monster that needs to be slayed.


  • This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Nah, if Labour didn't have a single gain in Scotland and only gained seats against the Tories, then the latter would be on 229 not 237.
    I haven't checked out the details of the poll, yet, but it seems to imply at least eight Labour gains from the SNP. Probably the six seats they lost in 2019, and maybe somewhere like Airdrie and Shotts and/or Glasgow East.
    It's a weird MRP though as East Lothian stays SNP (ignoring the ALBA defection) but has Inverclyde going back to Labour despite a large majority in 2019. The other Glasgow/N Lanarkshire seats I can just about believe as they were either ultra marginal or won by Labour in 2017.

    MRP doesn't have a great record in Scotland TBH.


  • This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Nah, if Labour didn't have a single gain in Scotland and only gained seats against the Tories, then the latter would be on 229 not 237.
    I haven't checked out the details of the poll, yet, but it seems to imply at least eight Labour gains from the SNP. Probably the six seats they lost in 2019, and maybe somewhere like Airdrie and Shotts and/or Glasgow East.
    *looks at poll*
    SNP - 48
    SLAB - 11
    SCON and SLD wipe out.
    Lab gain Glasgow South West, but SLDs lose Orkney and Shetland? Can't see it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    ITV just announced the death of The Pope by accident.

    https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1474797758712365062

    Just a Pope-a-dope ratings tactic ?

    First family Xmas dinner for two years; been cooking all day.


  • This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Nah, if Labour didn't have a single gain in Scotland and only gained seats against the Tories, then the latter would be on 229 not 237.
    I haven't checked out the details of the poll, yet, but it seems to imply at least eight Labour gains from the SNP. Probably the six seats they lost in 2019, and maybe somewhere like Airdrie and Shotts and/or Glasgow East.
    *looks at poll*
    SNP - 48
    SLAB - 11
    SCON and SLD wipe out.
    Lab gain Glasgow South West, but SLDs lose Orkney and Shetland? Can't see it.
    To be fair they won six seats in 2017? I can't see 11 though


  • This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    Nah, if Labour didn't have a single gain in Scotland and only gained seats against the Tories, then the latter would be on 229 not 237.
    I haven't checked out the details of the poll, yet, but it seems to imply at least eight Labour gains from the SNP. Probably the six seats they lost in 2019, and maybe somewhere like Airdrie and Shotts and/or Glasgow East.
    It's a weird MRP though as East Lothian stays SNP (ignoring the ALBA defection) but has Inverclyde going back to Labour despite a large majority in 2019. The other Glasgow/N Lanarkshire seats I can just about believe as they were either ultra marginal or won by Labour in 2017.

    MRP doesn't have a great record in Scotland TBH.
    Yeah, SLDs lose Orkney and Shetland as well... doesn't look that plausible really.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    To be honest I am extremely sceptical this would be repeated, I think a Labour majority is out of the question

    I would be staggered if Labour got more than 300 seats at the next election TBH (although 300 would be an excellent result), it 's a pretty dubious looking MRP TBH as it has Westmorland and Lonsdale as a Tory gain and has Labour regaining seats like Middlesbrough S and east Cleveland, Burton, Erewash, Telford, Dover, Stevenage, Grimsby, Bassetlaw, Waveney, Monmouth, Thurrock and Rochford and Southend E which all seem crazy.

    I can see some serious unwind back (mainly in the North) to 2015/17 but not this.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/starmer-opens-up-eight-point-lead-as-partygate-takes-toll-on-tories-lzftkmw57
    Although there are of course other factors at play in both Burton and Dover as the various scandals involving former MPs continues to unwind.

    Equally, I would be surprised if Labour retook Burton or NuL. Their vote in Staffs has been going one way for two decades - out the door.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    darkage said:

    dixiedean said:

    darkage said:

    dixiedean said:

    New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste.
    Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website.
    They really aren't at all.

    Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
    Yes. However, those are the prevailing symptoms.
    57 minutes without a comment. Is this a daytime record?
    I feel like I am stating something incredibly obvious. But the testing system, and associated rules, are absurd to the point of being meaningless. One set of people are motivated to take tests: so, people who are employed and would rather have a day or two off work whilst they await test results. Another set of people have every incentive to avoid taking Covid tests - so, the self employed, or people who need to get out and about to get things done.

    Even if no one ever admits to this being the truth, it is obvious to me that it is the case. Now we have got to the point where the official COVID symptoms are, it seems, not really correct; yet the impact on the economy of changing them, and the associated disruption, are such that they cannot be changed, because the effect of making a runny nose a covid symptom that justifies 'self isolating' and booking a test means that a large proportion of the country will be off work at anyone one time whilst they await their PCR test results.

    The situation is a farce. The government keep it running, presumably so it can get data from the PCR tests about COVID. This is a bureaucratic monster that needs to be slayed.
    You're assuming that most people don't care about public health, and are only motivated by whether they can game the system so that either they don't need to work even if they're healthy or they can mix with crowds even if they're infectious. It's obvious to you that people are like that, and obvious to me that they're not. After all, anyone who is that cynical can pull a sickie anyway - up to 3 days, most employers don't check up.

    What does I think happen commonly is that people don't bother to report negative LFT results. As a result, we don't have accurate figures for the proportion of tests that are positive.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The LFT results are in...

    Me: Negative

    Wor Lass: Positive. Repeat test: Positive

    Oh well, no Christmas dinner with the rest of the family.

    Sorry to hear that. Recall you were shielding last year so hope all ok
  • Happy Christmas everyone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Regaining the 2015-2019 seats sounds very credible on current polling (which however obviously may not last). Doing as well as Corbyn in 2015 doesn't sound an impossible goal, and doing a bit better isn't too hard to imagine. What the MRP approach does is give a better idea of current tactical voting intention, though I'm surprised to see no LibDem net gains on that basis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Regaining the 2015-2019 seats sounds very credible on current polling (which however obviously may not last). Doing as well as Corbyn in 2015 doesn't sound an impossible goal, and doing a bit better isn't too hard to imagine. What the MRP approach does is give a better idea of current tactical voting intention, though I'm surprised to see no LibDem net gains on that basis.
    Miliband, not Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited December 2021



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    No, this poll has the SNP down from 4% in 2019 to 3% now and several gains from the SNP by Labour in Central Scotland. Though it is also pre boundary changes which would likely see the Tories narrow the gap compared to what this poll suggests even if Starmer would still be PM

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1474808797138931715?s=20
  • HYUFD said:



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Without a single gain in Scotland, this is extraordinary.

    And the idea the SNP would be useful is destroyed
    No, this poll has the SNP down from 4% in 2019 to 3% now and several gains from.the SNP by Labour in Central Scotland. Though it is also pre boundary changes which would likely see the Tories narrow the gap compared to what this poll suggests even if Starmer would still be PM

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1474808797138931715?s=20
    I'm sure the Tories still won the argument according to you
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368



    This MRP poll translates in terms of seats

    Lab 338

    Con 237

    LD 11


    Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

    Regaining the 2015-2019 seats sounds very credible on current polling (which however obviously may not last). Doing as well as Corbyn in 2015 doesn't sound an impossible goal, and doing a bit better isn't too hard to imagine. What the MRP approach does is give a better idea of current tactical voting intention, though I'm surprised to see no LibDem net gains on that basis.
    That is a good point. I don't see Labour anywhere near government without an unravelling of former Remainer Tory seats to the LDs.

    I can't believe how Johnsonian hubris has allowed us to arrive at where we are today. I was expecting cross-over in the spring when the energy price hike and the effects of 6% plus inflation hit bank accounts.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Scotland map is just nut bar.

    Absolute bonkers unbelievable with obvious wrongness.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    darkage said:

    dixiedean said:

    darkage said:

    dixiedean said:

    New or continuous cough. High temperature. Loss of smell or taste.
    Still up as 3 main symptoms on NHS website.
    They really aren't at all.

    Problem is - If they put up 'runny nose, headache, sore throat, however mild get a PCR test'; well that is probably about 75% of the country at this time of year.
    Yes. However, those are the prevailing symptoms.
    57 minutes without a comment. Is this a daytime record?
    I feel like I am stating something incredibly obvious. But the testing system, and associated rules, are absurd to the point of being meaningless. One set of people are motivated to take tests: so, people who are employed and would rather have a day or two off work whilst they await test results. Another set of people have every incentive to avoid taking Covid tests - so, the self employed, or people who need to get out and about to get things done.

    Even if no one ever admits to this being the truth, it is obvious to me that it is the case. Now we have got to the point where the official COVID symptoms are, it seems, not really correct; yet the impact on the economy of changing them, and the associated disruption, are such that they cannot be changed, because the effect of making a runny nose a covid symptom that justifies 'self isolating' and booking a test means that a large proportion of the country will be off work at anyone one time whilst they await their PCR test results.

    The situation is a farce. The government keep it running, presumably so it can get data from the PCR tests about COVID. This is a bureaucratic monster that needs to be slayed.
    You're assuming that most people don't care about public health, and are only motivated by whether they can game the system so that either they don't need to work even if they're healthy or they can mix with crowds even if they're infectious. It's obvious to you that people are like that, and obvious to me that they're not. After all, anyone who is that cynical can pull a sickie anyway - up to 3 days, most employers don't check up.

    What does I think happen commonly is that people don't bother to report negative LFT results. As a result, we don't have accurate figures for the proportion of tests that are positive.
    It is more complex than that. My point is that the system motivates one set of people to take an interest in public health, the other are essentially forced by their circumstances to disregard it. To me that is obvious. I am not making generalisations about people, certainly not that they don't care about public health. Some will be very concerned about it, others far less so.

    But even if you are correct and that most people are actually acting in the interests of public health irrespective of how they are incentivised by the system, it is still absurd. That is because the official symptoms are no longer correct; as the symptoms of both the delta variant and the latest one are not the 3 main NHS symptoms that justify taking a PCR test.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Charles said:

    The LFT results are in...

    Me: Negative

    Wor Lass: Positive. Repeat test: Positive

    Oh well, no Christmas dinner with the rest of the family.

    Sorry to hear that. Recall you were shielding last year so hope all ok
    Thank you. Just a cause of inconvenience so far. No symptoms.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Watching the long-lost episode of Morecambe and Wise on BBC2.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Watching the long-lost episode of Morecambe and Wise on BBC2.

    Do the jokes start soon?
This discussion has been closed.